Search results for: urban flood risk mapping

Authors: M. A. M. Hayati Adilin, D. Ajau, A. S. Siti Khuzaimah, K. Mastura, R. Nik Muhammad Syafiq, M. N. Noor Fatin Nadiah

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The school environment is one of many factors related to the increment of overweight and obesity among children. There is an evidence to suggest that the school environmental factor has an independent effect towards health-related behaviour of children and school culture. It may have a significant impact towards the emergence of childhood obesity through their influence on eating pattern and physical activity level. The objective of this study is to identify the school environmental factors (i.e. physical, economic, political and socio-cultural) towards healthy eating and physical activity of urban and rural primary school children in preventing childhood obesity. This can be identified by examining the compliance of rural and urban school environment with whole-school environmental mapping framework. The study design was a cross-sectional study. A total of 60 schools were randomly selected (30 urban and 30 rural) in Selangor, Western Peninsular Malaysia in 2013 and 60 teachers (responsible for student affairs and the school curriculum) have been interviewed face to face by using a whole school mapping questionnaire followed by observation of the school environment . This study has demonstrated that schools in both areas (rural and urban) comply mostly with the physical environmental mapping (83.3%), followed by socio-cultural environmental mapping, 65%. Meanwhile, the political environmental mappings in both urban and rural schools show a low compliance percentage, which is 56.7%. For economic environmental mapping, only 10% of both schools are complied. As a conclusion, this study has demonstrated that schools in both areas do not fully comply with the whole school environmental mapping framework, especially economic and political. However, holistic approach is needed and many improvements can be proposed to promote healthy eating and physical activities among school children. Government, families and schools as well as communities and the media should be included together with any strategies for preventing childhood obesity.

Keywords: childhood obesity, healthy eating, physical activity, school environment

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

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Authors: Anik Sarminingsih, Krishna V. Pradana

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The failure of flood control system can be caused by various factors, such as not considering the uncertainty of designed flood causing the capacity of the flood control system is exceeded. The presence of the uncertainty factor is recognized as a serious issue in hydrological studies. Uncertainty in hydrological analysis is influenced by many factors, starting from reading water elevation data, rainfall data, selection of method of analysis, etc. In hydrological modeling selection of models and parameters corresponding to the watershed conditions should be evaluated by the hydraulic model in the river as a drainage channel. River cross-section capacity is the first defense in knowing the reliability of the flood control system. Reliability of river capacity describes the potential magnitude of flood risk. Case study in this research is Wulan River in Central Java. This river occurring flood almost every year despite some efforts to control floods such as levee, floodway and diversion. The flood-affected areas include several sub-districts, mainly in Kabupaten Kudus and Kabupaten Demak. First step is analyze the frequency of discharge observation from Klambu weir which have time series data from 1951-2013. Frequency analysis is performed using several distribution frequency models such as Gumbel distribution, Normal, Normal Log, Pearson Type III and Log Pearson. The result of the model based on standard deviation overlaps, so the maximum flood discharge from the lower return periods may be worth more than the average discharge for larger return periods. The next step is to perform a hydraulic analysis to evaluate the reliability of river capacity based on the flood discharge resulted from several methods. The selection of the design flood discharge of flood control system is the result of the method closest to bankfull capacity of the river.

Keywords: design flood, hydrological model, reliability, uncertainty, Wulan river

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Authors: Mohammad Nazri Mustafa, Pedram Hatami Abdullah, M. Fakhrur Razi Ahmad Faizul

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With the issuance of Malaysian National Annex 2017 as a part of MS EN 1998-1:2015, the seismic mapping of Malaysian Peninsular including Sabah and Sarawak has undergone some changes in terms of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) value. The revision to the PGA has raised a concern on the safety of oil and gas onshore structures as these structures were not designed to accommodate the new PGA values which are much higher than the previous values used in the original design. In view of the high numbers of structures and buildings to be re-assessed, a risk assessment methodology has been developed to prioritize and rank the assets in terms of their criticality against the new seismic loading. To-date such risk assessment method for oil and gas onshore structures is lacking, and it is the main intention of this technical paper to share the risk assessment methodology and risk elements scoring finalized via Delphi Method. The finalized methodology and the values used to rank the risk elements have been established based on years of relevant experience on the subject matter and based on a series of rigorous discussions with professionals in the industry. The risk scoring is mapped against the risk matrix (i.e., the LOF versus COF) and hence, the overall risk for the assets can be obtained. The overall risk can be used to prioritize and optimize integrity assessment, repair and strengthening work against the new seismic mapping of the country.

Keywords: methodology, PGA, risk, seismic

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Authors: Chandranath Chatterjee, Amina Khatun, Bhabagrahi Sahoo

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With the changing climate, precipitation events are intensified in the tropical river basins. Since these river basins are significantly influenced by the monsoonal rainfall pattern, critical impacts are observed on the agricultural practices in the downstream river reaches. This study analyses the crop damage and associated flood risk in terms of net benefit in the paddy-dominated tropical Indian delta of the Mahanadi River. The Mahanadi River basin lies in eastern part of the Indian sub-continent and is greatly affected by the southwest monsoon rainfall extending from the month of June to September. This river delta is highly flood-prone and has suffered from recurring high floods, especially after the 2000s. In this study, the lumped conceptual model, Nedbør Afstrømnings Model (NAM) from the suite of MIKE models, is used for rainfall-runoff modeling. The NAM model is laterally integrated with the MIKE11-Hydrodynamic (HD) model to route the runoffs up to the head of the delta region. To obtain the precipitation-derived future projected discharges at the head of the delta, nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, BCC-CSM1.1(m), GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M, available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive are considered. These nine GCMs are previously found to best-capture the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall. Based on the performance of the nine GCMs in reproducing the historical discharge pattern, three GCMs (HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) are selected. A higher Taylor Skill Score is considered as the GCM selection criteria. Thereafter, the 10-year return period design flood is estimated using L-moments based flood frequency analysis for the historical and three future projected periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-dimensional hydrograph analysis is performed to obtain the hydrographs for the historical/projected 10-year return period design floods. These hydrographs are forced into the calibrated and validated coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model, MIKE FLOOD, to simulate the flood inundation in the delta region. Historical and projected flood risk is defined based on the information about the flood inundation simulated by the MIKE FLOOD model and the inundation depth-damage-duration relationship of a normal rice variety cultivated in the river delta. In general, flood risk is expected to increase in all the future projected time periods as compared to the historical episode. Further, in comparison to the 2010s (2010-2039), an increased flood risk in the 2040s (2040-2069) is shown by all the three selected GCMs. However, the flood risk then declines in the 2070s as we move towards the end of the century (2070-2099). The methodology adopted herein for flood risk assessment is one of its kind and may be implemented in any world-river basin. The results obtained from this study can help in future flood preparedness by implementing suitable flood adaptation strategies.

Keywords: flood frequency analysis, flood risk, global climate models (GCMs), paddy cultivation

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Authors: J. M. Mayoral, M. Anaya

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The urban and economic development of cities demands the construction of water use and flood control infrastructure. Likewise, it is necessary to determine the safety level of the structures built with the current standards and if it is necessary to define the reinforcement actions. The foregoing is even more important in structures of great importance, such as dams, since they imply a greater risk for the population in case of failure or undesirable operating conditions (e.g., seepage, cracks, subsidence). This article presents a methodology for determining the seismic integrity of dams in urban areas. From direct measurements of the dynamic properties using geophysical exploration and ambient seismic noise measurements, the seismic integrity of the concrete-faced rockfill dam selected as a case of study is evaluated. To validate the results, two accelerometer stations were installed (e.g., free field and crest of the dam). Once the dynamic properties were determined, three-dimensional finite difference models were developed to evaluate the dam seismic performance for different intensities of movement, considering the site response and soil-structure interaction effects. The seismic environment was determined from the uniform hazard spectra for several return periods. Based on the results obtained, the safety level of the dam against different seismic actions was determined, and the effectiveness of ambient seismic noise measurements in dynamic characterization and subsequent evaluation of the seismic integrity of urban dams was evaluated.

Keywords: risk, seismic, soil-structure interaction, urban dams

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang

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Urban ecosystems, as complex coupled human-environment systems, contain abundant natural resources for breeding natural assets and, at the same time, attract urban assets and consume natural resources, triggered by urban development. Land use change illustrates the interaction between human activities and environments factually. However, IPCC (2014) announces that land use change and urbanization due to human activities are the major cause of climate change, leading to serious impacts on urban ecosystem resilience and risk. For this reason, risk assessment and resilience analysis are the keys for responding to climate change on urban ecosystems. Urban spatial planning can guide urban development by land use planning, transportation planning, and environmental planning and affect land use allocation and human activities by building major constructions and protecting important national land resources simultaneously. Urban spatial planning can aggravate climate change and, on the other hand, mitigate and adapt climate change. Research on effects of spatial planning on land use change and climate change is one of intense issues currently. Therefore, this research focuses on developing frameworks for risk assessment and resilience analysis from the aspect of ecosystem based on typhoon precipitation in Taipei area. The integrated method of risk assessment and resilience analysis will be also addressed for applying spatial planning practice and sustainable development.

Keywords: ecosystem, land use change, risk analysis, resilience

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Authors: Da Kuang

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Resilience is a hotly debated topic in many research fields (e.g., engineering, ecology, society, psychology). In flood management studies, we are experiencing the paradigm shift from flood resistance to flood resilience. Flood resilience refers to tolerate flooding through adaptation or transformation. It is increasingly argued that our city as a social-ecological system holds the ability to learn from experience and adapt to flood rather than simply resist it. This research aims to investigate what kinds of adaptation knowledge the frequently flooded village learned from past experience and its advantages and limitations in coping with floods. The study area – Xinnongcun village, located in the west of Wuhan city, is a linear village and continuously suffered from both flash flood and drainage flood during the past 30 years. We have a field trip to the site in June 2017 and conducted semi-structured interviews with local residents. Our research summarizes two types of adaptation knowledge that people learned from the past floods. Firstly, at the village scale, it has formed a collective urban form which could help people live during both flood and dry season. All houses and front yards were elevated about 2m higher than the road. All the front yards in the village are linked and there is no barrier. During flooding time, people walk to neighbors through houses yards and boat to outside village on the lower road. Secondly, at individual scale, local people learned tacit knowledge of preparedness and emergency response to flood. Regarding the advantages and limitations, the adaptation knowledge could effectively help people to live with flood and reduce the chances of getting injuries. However, it cannot reduce local farmers’ losses on their agricultural land. After flood, it is impossible for local people to recover to the pre-disaster state as flood emerges during June and July will result in no harvest. Therefore, we argue that learning from past flood experience could increase people’s adaptive capacity. However, once the adaptive capacity cannot reduce people’s losses, it requires a transformation to a better regime.

Keywords: adaptation, flood resilience, tacit knowledge, transformation

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Authors: Narissara Nuthammachot, Dimitris Stratoulias

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Fire is one of the main causes of environmental and ecosystem change. Therefore, it is a challenging task for fire risk assessment fire potential mapping. The study area is Hua Sai district, Nakorn Sri Thammarat province, which covers in a part of peat swamp forest areas. 55 fire points in peat swamp areas were reported from 2012 to 2016. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) methods were selected for this study. The risk fire area map was arranged on these factors; elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, distance from the river, distance from town, and land use. The results showed that the predicted fire risk areas are found to be in appreciable reliability with past fire events. The fire risk map can be used for the planning and management of fire areas in the future.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, fire risk assessment, geographic information system, peat swamp forest

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Authors: Karan Gupta

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The floods cause huge loos each year, and their impact gets manifold with the increase of total duration of flood as well as recession time. Moreover, floods have increased in recent years due to climate change in floodplains. In the context of global climate change, the agreement in Paris convention (2015) stated to keep the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C and keep it at the limit of 1.5°C. Thus, this study investigates the impact of increasing temperature on the stage, discharge as well as total flood duration and recession time in the Meghna River basin in Bangladesh. This study considers the 100-year return period flood flows in the Meghna river under the specific warming levels (SWLs) of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C. The results showed that the rate of increase of duration of flood is nearly 50% lesser at ∆T = 1.5°C as compared to ∆T = 2°C, whereas the rate of increase of duration of recession is 75% lower at ∆T = 1.5°C as compared to ∆T = 2°C. Understanding the change of total duration of flood as well as recession time of the flood gives a better insight to effectively plan for flood mitigation measures.

Keywords: flood, climate change, Paris convention, Bangladesh, inundation duration, recession duration

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Authors: Chengming Li, Yong Yin, Peipei Guo, Xiaoli Liu

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Without taking account of the attribute richness of POI (point of interest) data and spatial distribution limited by roads, a POI generalization method considering both attribute information and spatial distribution has been proposed against the existing point generalization algorithm merely focusing on overall information of point groups. Hierarchical characteristic of urban POI information expression has been firstly analyzed to point out the measurement feature of the corresponding hierarchy. On this basis, an urban POI generalizing strategy has been put forward: POIs urban road network have been divided into three distribution pattern; corresponding generalization methods have been proposed according to the characteristic of POI data in different distribution patterns. Experimental results showed that the method taking into account both attribute information and spatial distribution characteristics of POI can better implement urban POI generalization in the mapping presentation.

Keywords: POI, road network, selection method, spatial information expression, distribution pattern

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Authors: Melese Wondatir

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Flooding ranks among the most destructive natural disasters, impacting millions of individuals globally and resulting in substantial economic, social, and environmental repercussions. This study's objective was to create a comprehensive model that assesses the Nile River basin's susceptibility to flood damage and improves existing flood risk management strategies. Authorities responsible for enacting policies and implementing measures may benefit from this research to acquire essential information about the flood, including its scope and susceptible areas. The identification of severe flood damage locations and efficient mitigation techniques were made possible by the use of geospatial data. Slope, elevation, distance from the river, drainage density, topographic witness index, rainfall intensity, distance from road, NDVI, soil type, and land use type were all used throughout the study to determine the vulnerability of flood damage. Ranking elements according to their significance in predicting flood damage risk was done using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and geospatial approaches. The analysis finds that the most important parameters determining the region's vulnerability are distance from the river, topographic witness index, rainfall, and elevation, respectively. The consistency ratio (CR) value obtained in this case is 0.000866 (<0.1), which signifies the acceptance of the derived weights. Furthermore, 10.84m2, 83331.14m2, 476987.15m2, 24247.29m2, and 15.83m2 of the region show varying degrees of vulnerability to flooding—very low, low, medium, high, and very high, respectively. Due to their close proximity to the river, the northern-western regions of the Nile River basin—especially those that are close to Sudanese cities like Khartoum—are more vulnerable to flood damage, according to the research findings. Furthermore, the AUC ROC curve demonstrates that the categorized vulnerability map achieves an accuracy rate of 91.0% based on 117 sample points. By putting into practice strategies to address the topographic witness index, rainfall patterns, elevation fluctuations, and distance from the river, vulnerable settlements in the area can be protected, and the impact of future flood occurrences can be greatly reduced. Furthermore, the research findings highlight the urgent requirement for infrastructure development and effective flood management strategies in the northern and western regions of the Nile River basin, particularly in proximity to major towns such as Khartoum. Overall, the study recommends prioritizing high-risk locations and developing a complete flood risk management plan based on the vulnerability map.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, Blue Nile Basin, geospatial techniques, flood vulnerability, multi-criteria decision making

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Authors: Mohsin Ali Baloch, Saira Baloch

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Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the levels of serum lipid profiles in Urban and Rural Population of Sindh, to indicate the existing risk of cardiovascular diseases. Material and Methods: Study was conducted at Liaquat University of Medical & Health Sciences, in the cities of Jamshoro and Hyderabad of Sindh. Blood samples from 300 healthy individuals were collected in fasting condition, out them 100 were from rural population, 100 were urban while 100 were used as control group. The biochemistry of these samples was obtained by the analysis of total Cholesterol, high density lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL), low-density lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL) and Triglycerides using kit method on Analyzer Clinical Chemistry. Results and Conclusion: Serum levels of total cholesterol, Triglycerides, and LDL cholesterol were significantly raised in the rural and urban males, whereas HDL cholesterol was decreased as compared to the Healthy controls that indicated significant risk of CVD. Urban population was with more risk of CVD and male gender in both groups was at more risk. The worst lipid profile in gender wise distribution was observed in male gender of urban population with highest Total Cholesterol/HDL Ratio while female gender also shown moderate risk of CVD with highest LDL/HDL Ratio.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, lipid profiles, urban and rural population, LDL/HDL Ratio

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zenoozian

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This paper studies the susceptibility of local settlements in the gulf of Oman mangrove forest zone to flooding and progressesconsiderate of acuities and reactions to historical and present coastal flooding.it is indirect thaterosionsproduced in coastal zones by the change of mangrove undergrowthsubsequent from the enduring influence of persons since the late 19th century. Confronted with the increasing impact of climate change on climate ambitiousalarms such as flooding and biodiversity damage, handling the relationship between mangroves and their atmosphere has become authoritative for their defense. Coastal flood dangers are increasing quickly. We offer high resolution approximations of the financial value of mangroves forests for flood risk discount. We progress a probabilistic, process-based estimate of the properties of mangroves on avoidanceharms to people and property. More significantly, it also establishes how the incessantsqualor of this significant ecosystem has the potential to unfavorably influence the future cyclone persuadeddangers in the area.

Keywords: mangrove forest, coastal, flood, erosion

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Authors: Varis Ransibrahmanakul, Doug Pirhalla, Scott Sheridan, Cameron Lee

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U.S. coastal areas and ecosystems are facing multiple sea level rise threats and effects: heavy rain events, cyclones, and changing wind and weather patterns all influence coastal flooding, sedimentation, and erosion along critical barrier islands and can strongly impact habitat resiliency and water quality in protected habitats. These impacts are increasing over time and have accelerated the need for new tracking techniques, models and tools of flood risk to support enhanced preparedness for coastal management and mitigation. To address this issue, NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) evaluated new metrics from satellite altimetry AVISO/Copernicus and MODIS IR flood extents to isolate nodes atmospheric variability indicative of elevated sea level and nuisance flood events. Using de-trended time series of cross-shelf sea surface heights (SSH), we identified specific Self Organizing Maps (SOM) nodes and transitions having a strongest regional association with oceanic spatial patterns (e.g., heightened downwelling favorable wind-stress and enhanced southward coastal transport) indicative of elevated coastal sea levels. Results show the impacts of the inverted barometer effect as well as the effects of surface wind forcing; Ekman-induced transport along broad expanses of the U.S. eastern coastline. Higher sea levels and corresponding localized flooding are associated with either pattern indicative of enhanced on-shore flow, deepening cyclones, or local- scale winds, generally coupled with an increased local to regional precipitation. These findings will support an integration of satellite products and will inform seasonal outlook model development supported through NOAAs Climate Program Office and NOS office of Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). Overall results will prioritize ecological areas and coastal lab facilities at risk based on numbers of nuisance flood projected and inform coastal management of flood risk around low lying areas subjected to bank erosion.

Keywords: AVISO satellite altimetry SSHA, MODIS IR flood map, nuisance flood, remote sensing of flood

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Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

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Authors: Muhammad Naveed

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In this paper, flood issues in Gujranwala and Rawalpindi divisions are discussed as a primary importance as these zones are affected continuously from flooding in recent years, provincial variability of the issue, introduce status of the continuous administration measures, their adequacy and future needs in flood administration are secured. Flood issues in these zones are exhibited by Chenab River Basin, Jhelum Rivers Basin. Some unique problems, related to floods in these divisions is lack of major dams on Chenab and Jhelum rivers and also mismanagement of rivers and canal water like dam break stream, and water signing in Tal zones, are additionally mentioned. There are major Nalaas in these regions like Nalaa Lai of Rawalpindi and Nalaa Daik, Nalaa Palkhu, Nalaa Aik of Gujranwala are major cause of floods in these regions other than rivers. Proper management of these Nalaas and moving of nearby population well in time could reduce impacts from flood in these regions. Progress of different flood administration measures, both auxiliary and non-basic, are discussed. Likewise, future needs to accomplish proficient and fruitful flood management measures in Pakistan are additionally brought up. In this paper, we describe different hard and soft engineering techniques to overcome flood situations in these zones as these zones are more vulnerable due to lack of management in canal and river water. Effective management and use of hard and soft techniques are need of time in coming future for controlling greater flooding in flood risk zones to overcome or minimize people’s death as well as agricultural and financial resources as flood and other natural disasters are a major drawback in the economic prosperity of the country.

Keywords: flood management, rivers, major dams, agricultural and financial loss, future management and control

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Authors: P. Chang, C. Lopez, C. Burbano

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Flood protection zones are riparian buffers that are formed to manage and mitigate the impact of flooding, and in turn, protect local populations. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Guía Técnica de Criterios para el Acotamiento de las Rondas Hídricas in Colombia against international regulations in Canada and Spain, in order to determine its limitations and contribute to its improvement. The need to establish a specific corridor that allows for the dynamic development of a river is clear; however, limitations present in the Colombian Technical Guide are identified. The study shows that international regulations provide similar concepts as used in Colombia, but additionally integrate aspects such as regionalization that allows for a better characterization of the channel way, and incorporate the frequency of flooding and its probability of occurrence in the concept of risk when determining the protection zone. The case study analyzed in Dosquebradas - Risaralda aimed at comparing the application of the different standards through hydraulic modeling. It highlights that the current Colombian standard does not offer sufficient details in its implementation phase, which leads to a false sense of security related to inaccuracy and lack of data. Furthermore, the study demonstrates how the Colombian norm is ill-adapted to the conditions of Dosquebradas typical of the Andes region, both in the social and hydraulic aspects, and does not reduce the risk, nor does it improve the protection of the population. Our study considers it pertinent to include risk estimation as an integral part of the methodology when establishing protect flood zone, considering the particularity of water systems, as they are characterized by an heterogeneous natural dynamic behavior.

Keywords: environmental corridor, flood zone determination, hydraulic domain, legislation flood protection zone

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Authors: Ali Liaghat, Navid Tavanpour, Nima Tavanpour

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An increase in population and prevalence of urbanity have led plan makers and decision makers put effort into sustainable development of cities at national and local levels. One of the important issues in urban development is compliance with safety issues in cities. Despite natural disasters and unexpected events such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, fires, etc., urban development should be regarded as an axiom, or else any form of construction and development is not safe, because it will greatly harm economic growth and development and pose an obstacle to achieving sustainable development, plus a loss to lives and finances of people. Therefore, in line with urban development, it is necessary to identify particular environmental and local issues as determinants and pay attention to them at the top of everything, in that we can call it a good action and factor in urban sustainable developments. Physical structure of each city represents how it has developed or its development shaped and what incidents, changes, natural disasters it has undergone over time. Since any form of development plan should be in accordance with the previous situations of cities, disregarding it, unfortunately, can escalate into uncontrolled urban development, non-resistant and unstable construction against earthquake or invasion of river areas, destruction of agricultural lands or vegetation, periodic floods over time. It has been viewed as serious threats to developing cities, and typically caused destruction of bed and other urban facilities as well as damages to lives and finances. In addition, uncontrolled development has caused cities to look ugly in terms of urban façade, and off and on such unplanned measures caused the country to face countless losses, and it not only vitiates expenses incurred, but it will also impose additional costs of reconstruction, i.e. it is unsustainable development. Thus, in this paper, in addition to a discussion about necessity for a profound attitude toward this subject and making long-term plans, programs for organizing river and its surrounding area, creating open and green urban spaces, retrofitting and flood preventing are presented for sustainable safety and development of cities along with a critique of successful countries.

Keywords: flood, sustainable development, urbanisation, urban management

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Authors: Pratima Pokharel

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When sewer overflow due to rainfall in urban areas, this leads to public health risks when an individual is exposed to that contaminated floodwater. Nevertheless, it is still unclear the extent to which the infections pose a risk to public health. This study analyzed reported diarrheal cases by month and age in Bangkok, Thailand. The results showed that the cases are reported higher in the wet season than in the dry season. It was also found that in Bangkok, the probability of infection with diarrheal diseases in the wet season is higher for the age group between 15 to 44. However, the probability of infection is highest for kids under 5 years, but they are not influenced by wet weather. Further, this study introduced a vulnerability that leads to health risks from urban flooding. This study has found some vulnerability variables that contribute to health risks from flooding. Thus, for vulnerability analysis, the study has chosen two variables, economic status, and age, that contribute to health risk. Assuming that the people's economic status depends on the types of houses they are living in, the study shows the spatial distribution of economic status in the vulnerability maps. The vulnerability map result shows that people living in Sukhumvit have low vulnerability to health risks with respect to the types of houses they are living in. In addition, from age the probability of infection of diarrhea was analyzed. Moreover, a field survey was carried out to validate the vulnerability of people. It showed that health vulnerability depends on economic status, income level, and education. The result depicts that people with low income and poor living conditions are more vulnerable to health risks. Further, the study also carried out 1D Hydrodynamic Advection-Dispersion modelling with 2-year rainfall events to simulate the dispersion of fecal coliform concentration in the drainage network as well as 1D/2D Hydrodynamic model to simulate the overland flow. The 1D result represents higher concentrations for dry weather flows and a large dilution of concentration on the commencement of a rainfall event, resulting in a drop of the concentration due to runoff generated after rainfall, whereas the model produced flood depth, flood duration, and fecal coliform concentration maps, which were transferred to ArcGIS to produce hazard and risk maps. In addition, the study also simulates the 5-year and 10-year rainfall simulations to show the variation in health hazards and risks. It was found that even though the hazard coverage is very high with a 10-year rainfall events among three rainfall events, the risk was observed to be the same with a 5-year and 10-year rainfall events.

Keywords: urban flooding, risk, hazard, vulnerability, health risk, framework

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Authors: Lin-Han Chiang Hsieh, Hsiao-Yi Lin

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This study aims to determine the impact of the disclosure of flood potential map on housing prices. The disclosure is supposed to mitigate the market failure by reducing information asymmetry. On the other hand, opponents argue that the official disclosure of simulated results will only create unnecessary disturbances on the housing market. This study identifies the impact of the disclosure of the flood potential map by comparing the hedonic price of flood potential before and after the disclosure. The flood potential map used in this study is published by Taipei municipal government in 2015, which is a result of a comprehensive simulation based on geographical, hydrological, and meteorological factors. The residential property sales data of 2013 to 2016 is used in this study, which is collected from the actual sales price registration system by the Department of Land Administration (DLA). The result shows that the impact of flood potential on residential real estate market is statistically significant both before and after the disclosure. But the trend is clearer after the disclosure, suggesting that the disclosure does have an impact on the market. Also, the result shows that the impact of flood potential differs by the severity and frequency of precipitation. The negative impact for a relatively mild, high frequency flood potential is stronger than that for a heavy, low possibility flood potential. The result indicates that home buyers are of more concern to the frequency, than the intensity of flood. Another contribution of this study is in the methodological perspective. The classic hedonic price analysis with OLS regression suffers from two spatial problems: the endogeneity problem caused by omitted spatial-related variables, and the heterogeneity concern to the presumption that regression coefficients are spatially constant. These two problems are seldom considered in a single model. This study tries to deal with the endogeneity and heterogeneity problem together by combining the spatial fixed-effect model and geographically weighted regression (GWR). A series of literature indicates that the hedonic price of certain environmental assets varies spatially by applying GWR. Since the endogeneity problem is usually not considered in typical GWR models, it is arguable that the omitted spatial-related variables might bias the result of GWR models. By combing the spatial fixed-effect model and GWR, this study concludes that the effect of flood potential map is highly sensitive by location, even after controlling for the spatial autocorrelation at the same time. The main policy application of this result is that it is improper to determine the potential benefit of flood prevention policy by simply multiplying the hedonic price of flood risk by the number of houses. The effect of flood prevention might vary dramatically by location.

Keywords: flood potential, hedonic price analysis, endogeneity, heterogeneity, geographically-weighted regression

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Authors: Abida Haddouche, Ahmed Chrif Toubal

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The Neogene basin of the Eastern Mitidja, object of the study area, represents potential water resources and especially groundwater reserves. This water is an important economic; this resource is highly sensitive which need protection and preservation. Unfortunately, these waters are exposed to various forms of pollution, whether from urban, agricultural, industrial or merely accidental. This pollution is a permanent risk of limiting resource. In this context, the work aims to evaluate the intrinsic vulnerability of the aquifer to protect and preserve the quality of this resource. It will focus on the disposal of water and land managers a cartographic document accessible to locate the areas where the water has a high vulnerability. Vulnerability mapping of the Easter Mitidja quaternary aquifer is performed by applying three methods (DRASTIC, DRIST, and GOD). Comparison and validation results show that the DRASTIC method is the most suitable method for aquifer vulnerability of the study area.

Keywords: Aquifer of Mitidja, DRASTIC method, geographic information system (GIS), vulnerability mapping

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Authors: Mohammad Saber Eslamlou, Manouchehr Tabibian, Mahta Mirmoghtadaei

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The history of urban development and the increasing complexities of urban life have long been intertwined with different natural and man-made disasters. Sometimes, these unpleasant events have destroyed the cities forever. The growth of the urban population and the increase of social and economic resources in the cities increased the importance of developing a holistic approach to dealing with unknown urban disasters. As a result, the interest in resilience has increased in most of the scientific fields, and the urban planning literature has been enriched with the studies of the social, economic, infrastructural, and physical abilities of the cities. In this regard, different conceptual frameworks and patterns have been developed focusing on dimensions of resilience and different kinds of disasters. As the most frequent and likely natural disaster in Iran is flooding, the present study aims to develop a cause-effect model of urban resilience against flood in Karaj City. In this theoretical study, desk research and documentary studies were used to find the elements and dimensions of urban resilience. In this regard, 6 dimensions and 32 elements were found for urban resilience and a questionnaire was made by considering the requirements of TOPSIS techniques (pairwise comparison). The sample of the research consisted of 10 participants who were faculty members, academicians, board members of research centers, managers of the Ministry of Road and Urban Development, board members of New Towns Development Company, experts, and practitioners of consulting companies who had scientific and research backgrounds. The gathered data in this survey were analyzed using TOPSIS and Shannon Entropy techniques. The results show that Infrastructure/Physical, Social, Organizational/ Institutional, Structural/Physical, Economic, and Environmental dimensions are the most effective factors in urban resilience against floods in Karaj, respectively. Finally, a comprehensive model and a systematic framework of factors that affect the urban resilience of Karaj against floods was developed. This cause – effect model shows how different factors are related and influence each other, based on their connected structure and preferences.

Keywords: urban resilience, TOPSIS, Shannon entropy, cause-effect model of resilience, flood

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Authors: Danielle M. Barna, Kolbjørn Engeland, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Chong-Yu Xu

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Design flood values give estimates of flood magnitude within a given return period and are essential to making adaptive decisions around land use planning, infrastructure design, and disaster mitigation. Often design flood values are needed at locations with insufficient data. Additionally, in hydrologic applications where flood retention is important (e.g., floodplain management and reservoir design), design flood values are required at different flood durations. A statistical approach to this problem is a development of a regression model for extremes where some of the parameters are dependent on flood duration in addition to being covariate-dependent. In hydrology, this is called a regional flood-duration-frequency (regional-QDF) model. Typically, the underlying statistical distribution is chosen to be the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. However, as the support of the GEV distribution depends on both its parameters and the range of the data, special care must be taken with the development of the regional model. In particular, we find that the GEV is problematic when developing a GAMLSS-type analysis due to the difficulty of proposing a link function that is independent of the unknown parameters and the observed data. We discuss these challenges in the context of developing a regional QDF model for Norway.

Keywords: design flood values, bayesian statistics, regression modeling of extremes, extreme value analysis, GEV

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Authors: Eakarat Boonreang, Anothai Harasarn

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The objectives of this study are to investigate the flood disaster management capacity of communities in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand, and to recommend the sustainable flood management approaches of communities in Ubon Ratchathani province, Thailand. The selected population consisted of the community leaders and committees, the executives of local administrative organizations, and the head of Ubon Ratchathani provincial office of disaster prevention and mitigation. The data was collected by in-depth interview, focus group, and observation. The data was analyzed and classified in order to determine the communities’ capacity in flood disaster management. The results revealed that communities’ capacity were as follows, before flood disaster, the community leaders held a meeting with the community committees in order to plan disaster response and determined evacuation routes, and the villagers moved their belongings to higher places and prepared vehicles for evacuation. During flood disaster, the communities arranged motorboats for transportation and villagers evacuated to a temporary evacuation center. Moreover, the communities asked for survival bags, motorboats, emergency toilets, and drinking water from the local administrative organizations and the 22nd Military Circle. After flood disaster, the villagers cleaned and fixed their houses and also collaborated in cleaning the temple, school, and other places in the community. The recommendation approaches for sustainable flood disaster management consisted of structural measures, such as the establishment of reservoirs and building higher houses, and non-structural measures such as raising awareness and fostering self-reliance, establishing disaster management plans, rehearsal of disaster response procedures every year, and transferring disaster knowledge among younger generations. Moreover, local administrative organizations should formulate strategic plans that focus on disaster management capacity building at the community level, particularly regarding non-structural measures. Ubon Ratchathani provincial offices of disaster prevention and mitigation should continually monitor and evaluate the outcomes of community based disaster risk management program, including allocating more flood disaster management-related resources among local administrative organizations and communities.

Keywords: capacity building, community based disaster risk management, flood disaster management, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: D. Pinto, L. Castro, M. L. Cruzat, S. Barros, J. Gironás, C. Oberli, M. Torres, C. Escauriaza, A. Cipriano

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Flash floods, together with landslides, are a common natural threat for people living in mountainous regions and foothills. One way to deal with this constant menace is the use of Early Warning Systems, which have become a very important mitigation strategy for natural disasters. In this work, we present our proposal for a pilot Flash Flood Early Warning System for Santiago, Chile, the first stage of a more ambitious project that in a future stage shall also include early warning of landslides. To give a context for our approach, we first analyze three existing Flash Flood Early Warning Systems, focusing on their general architectures. We then present our proposed system, with main focus on the decision support system, a system that integrates empirical models and fuzzy expert systems to achieve reliable risk estimations.

Keywords: decision support systems, early warning systems, flash flood, natural hazard

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Authors: George R. Puno, Eric N. Bruno

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The natural landscape of the Philippine archipelago plus the current realities of climate change make the country vulnerable to flood hazards. Flooding becomes the recurring natural disaster in the country resulting to lose of lives and properties. Musimusi is among the rivers which exhibited inundation particularly at the inhabited floodplain portion of its watershed. During the event, rescue operations and distribution of relief goods become a problem due to lack of high resolution flood maps to aid local government unit identify the most affected areas. In the attempt of minimizing impact of flooding, hydrologic modelling with high resolution mapping is becoming more challenging and important. This study focused on the analysis of flood extent as a function of different geomorphologic characteristics of Musimusi watershed. The methods include the delineation of morphometric parameters in the Musimusi watershed using Geographic Information System (GIS) and geometric calculations tools. Digital Terrain Model (DTM) as one of the derivatives of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology was used to determine the extent of river inundation involving the application of Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and Hydrology Modelling System (HEC-HMS) models. The digital elevation model (DEM) from synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) was used to delineate watershed boundary and river network. Datasets like mean sea level, river cross section, river stage, discharge and rainfall were also used as input parameters. Curve number (CN), vegetation, and soil properties were calibrated based on the existing condition of the site. Results showed that the drainage density value of the watershed is low which indicates that the basin is highly permeable subsoil and thick vegetative cover. The watershed’s elongation ratio value of 0.9 implies that the floodplain portion of the watershed is susceptible to flooding. The bifurcation ratio value of 2.1 indicates higher risk of flooding in localized areas of the watershed. The circularity ratio value (1.20) indicates that the basin is circular in shape, high discharge of runoff and low permeability of the subsoil condition. The heavy rainfall of 167 mm brought by Typhoon Seniang last December 29, 2014 was characterized as high intensity and long duration, with a return period of 100 years produced 316 m3s-1 outflows. Portion of the floodplain zone (1.52%) suffered inundation with 2.76 m depth at the maximum. The information generated in this study is helpful to the local disaster risk reduction management council in monitoring the affected sites for more appropriate decisions so that cost of rescue operations and relief goods distribution is minimized.

Keywords: flooding, geomorphology, mapping, watershed

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Authors: Martin Kleynhans, Margot Soler, Gavin Quibell

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Malawi is one of the world’s poorest nations and consequently, the design of flood risk management infrastructure comes with a different set of challenges. There is a lack of good quality hydromet data, both in spatial terms and in the quality thereof and the challenge in the design of flood risk management infrastructure is compounded by the fact that maintenance is almost completely non-existent and that solutions have to be simple to be effective. Solutions should not require any further resources to remain functional after completion, and they should be resilient. They also have to be cost effective. The Lower Shire Valley of Malawi suffers from frequent flood events. Various flood risk management interventions have been designed across the valley during the course of the Shire River Basin Management Project – Phase I, and due to the data poor environment, indigenous knowledge was relied upon to a great extent for hydrological and hydraulic model calibration and verification. However, indigenous knowledge comes with the caveat that it is ‘fuzzy’ and that it can be manipulated for political reasons. The experience in the Lower Shire valley suggests that indigenous knowledge is unlikely to invent a problem where none exists, but that flood depths and extents may be exaggerated to secure prioritization of the intervention. Indigenous knowledge relies on the memory of a community and cannot foresee events that exceed past experience, that could occur differently to those that have occurred in the past, or where flood management interventions change the flow regime. This complicates communication of planned interventions to local inhabitants. Indigenous knowledge is, for the most part, intuitive, but flooding can sometimes be counter intuitive, and the rural poor may have a lower trust of technology. Due to a near complete lack of maintenance of infrastructure, infrastructure has to be designed with no moving parts and no requirement for energy inputs. This precludes pumps, valves, flap gates and sophisticated warning systems. Designs of dykes during this project included ‘flood warning spillways’, that double up as pedestrian and animal crossing points, which provide warning of impending dangerous water levels behind dykes to residents before water levels that could cause a possible dyke failure are reached. Locally available materials and erosion protection using vegetation were used wherever possible to keep costs down.

Keywords: design of dykes in low-income countries, flood warning spillways, indigenous knowledge, Malawi

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Authors: Kim Anema, Matthias Max, Chris Zevenbergen

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For any flood risk manager the 'safety paradox' has to be a familiar concept: low probability leads to a sense of safety, which leads to more investments in the area, which leads to higher potential consequences: keeping the aggregated risk (probability*consequences) at the same level. Therefore, it is important to mitigate potential consequences apart from probability. However, when the (perceived) probability is so low that there is no recognizable trend for society to adapt to, addressing the potential consequences will always be the lagging point on the agenda. Preparedness programs fail because of lack of interest and urgency, policy makers are distracted by their day to day business and there's always a more urgent issue to spend the taxpayer's money on. The leading question in this study was how to address the social consequences of flooding in a context of (perceived) low probability. Disruptions of everyday urban life, large or small, can be caused by a variety of (un)expected things - of which flooding is only one possibility. Variability like this is typically addressed with resilience - and we used the concept of Community Resilience as the framework for this study. Drawing on face to face interviews, an extensive questionnaire and publicly available statistical data we explored the 'whole society response' to two recent urban flood events; the Brisbane Floods (AUS) in 2011 and the Dresden Floods (GE) in 2013. In Brisbane, we studied how the societal impacts of the floods were counteracted by both authorities and the public, and in Dresden we were able to validate our findings. A large part of the reactions, both public as institutional, to these two urban flood events were not fuelled by preparedness or proper planning. Instead, more important success factors in counteracting social impacts like demographic changes in neighborhoods and (non-)economic losses were dynamics like community action, flexibility and creativity from authorities, leadership, informal connections and a shared narrative. These proved to be the determining factors for the quality and speed of recovery in both cities. The resilience of the community in Brisbane was good, due to (i) the approachability of (local) authorities, (ii) a big group of ‘secondary victims’ and (iii) clear leadership. All three of these elements were amplified by the use of social media and/ or web 2.0 by both the communities and the authorities involved. The numerous contacts and social connections made through the web were fast, need driven and, in their own way, orderly. Similarly in Dresden large groups of 'unprepared', ad hoc organized citizens managed to work together with authorities in a way that was effective and speeded up recovery. The concept of community resilience is better fitted than 'social adaptation' to deal with the potential consequences of an (im)probable flood. Community resilience is built on capacities and dynamics that are part of everyday life and which can be invested in pre-event to minimize the social impact of urban flooding. Investing in these might even have beneficial trade-offs in other policy fields.

Keywords: community resilience, disaster response, social consequences, preparedness

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Sanja Peter

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Transformation of urban environments can be compared to evolutionary processes. Systematic digital mapping of historical data can enable capturing some of these processes and their outcomes. For example, it may help reveal the structure of a city’s historical DNA. Gathering historical data for automatic processing may be giving a basis for cultural algorithms. Gothenburg City museum is trying to make city’s heritage information accessible through GIS-platforms and is now partnering with academic institutions to find appropriate methods to make accessible the knowledge on the city’s historical fabric. Hopefully, this will be carried out through a project called Digital Twin Cities. One part of this large project, concerning matters of Cultural Heritage, will be in collaboration with Chalmers University of Technology. The aim is to create a layered map showing historical developments of the city and extracting quantitative data about its built heritage, above and below the earth. It will allow interpreting the information from historic maps through, for example, names of the streets/places, geography, structural changes in urban fabric and information gathered by archaeologists’ excavations. Through the study of these geographical, historical and local metamorphoses, urban environment will reveal its metaphorical DNA or its MEM (Dawkins).

Keywords: Gothenburg, mapping, cultural heritage, city history

Procedia PDF Downloads 117