Search results for: disease transmission model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 20994

Search results for: disease transmission model

20904 Wireless Transmission of Big Data Using Novel Secure Algorithm

Authors: K. Thiagarajan, K. Saranya, A. Veeraiah, B. Sudha

Abstract:

This paper presents a novel algorithm for secure, reliable and flexible transmission of big data in two hop wireless networks using cooperative jamming scheme. Two hop wireless networks consist of source, relay and destination nodes. Big data has to transmit from source to relay and from relay to destination by deploying security in physical layer. Cooperative jamming scheme determines transmission of big data in more secure manner by protecting it from eavesdroppers and malicious nodes of unknown location. The novel algorithm that ensures secure and energy balance transmission of big data, includes selection of data transmitting region, segmenting the selected region, determining probability ratio for each node (capture node, non-capture and eavesdropper node) in every segment, evaluating the probability using binary based evaluation. If it is secure transmission resume with the two- hop transmission of big data, otherwise prevent the attackers by cooperative jamming scheme and transmit the data in two-hop transmission.

Keywords: big data, two-hop transmission, physical layer wireless security, cooperative jamming, energy balance

Procedia PDF Downloads 467
20903 Using Speech Emotion Recognition as a Longitudinal Biomarker for Alzheimer’s Diseases

Authors: Yishu Gong, Liangliang Yang, Jianyu Zhang, Zhengyu Chen, Sihong He, Xusheng Zhang, Wei Zhang

Abstract:

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that affects millions of people worldwide and is characterized by cognitive decline and behavioral changes. People living with Alzheimer’s disease often find it hard to complete routine tasks. However, there are limited objective assessments that aim to quantify the difficulty of certain tasks for AD patients compared to non-AD people. In this study, we propose to use speech emotion recognition (SER), especially the frustration level, as a potential biomarker for quantifying the difficulty patients experience when describing a picture. We build an SER model using data from the IEMOCAP dataset and apply the model to the DementiaBank data to detect the AD/non-AD group difference and perform longitudinal analysis to track the AD disease progression. Our results show that the frustration level detected from the SER model can possibly be used as a cost-effective tool for objective tracking of AD progression in addition to the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, speech emotion recognition, longitudinal biomarker, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 94
20902 Composite Distributed Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning Considering Security

Authors: Amir Lotfi, Seyed Hamid Hosseini

Abstract:

During the recent past, due to the increase of electrical energy demand and governmental resources constraints in creating additional capacity in the generation, transmission, and distribution, privatization, and restructuring in electrical industry have been considered. So, in most of the countries, different parts of electrical industry like generation, transmission, and distribution have been separated in order to create competition. Considering these changes, environmental issues, energy growth, investment of private equity in energy generation units and difficulties of transmission lines expansion, distributed generation (DG) units have been used in power systems. Moreover, reduction in the need for transmission and distribution, the increase of reliability, improvement of power quality, and reduction of power loss have caused DG to be placed in power systems. On the other hand, considering low liquidity need, private investors tend to spend their money for DGs. In this project, the main goal is to offer an algorithm for planning and placing DGs in order to reduce the need for transmission and distribution network.

Keywords: planning, transmission, distributed generation, power security, power systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 463
20901 Asymmetric Price Transmission in Rice: A Regional Analysis in Peru

Authors: Renzo Munoz-Najar, Cristina Wong, Daniel De La Torre Ugarte

Abstract:

The literature on price transmission usually deals with asymmetries related to different commodities and/or the short and long term. The role of domestic regional differences and the relationship with asymmetries within a country are usually left out. This paper looks at the asymmetry in the transmission of rice prices from the international price to the farm gate prices in four northern regions of Peru for the last period 2001-2016. These regions are San Martín, Piura, Lambayeque and La Libertad. The relevance of the study lies in its ability to assess the need for policies aimed at improving the competitiveness of the market and ensuring the benefit of producers. There are differences in planting and harvesting dates, as well as in geographic location that justify the hypothesis of the existence of differences in the price transition asymmetries between these regions. Those differences are due to at least three factors geography, infrastructure development, and distribution systems. For this, the Threshold Vector Error Correction Model and the Autoregressive Vector Model with Threshold are used. Both models, collect asymmetric effects in the price adjustments. In this way, it is sought to verify that farm prices react more to falls than increases in international prices due to the high bargaining power of intermediaries. The results of the investigation suggest that the transmission of prices is significant only for Lambayeque and La Libertad. Likewise, the asymmetry in the transmission of prices for these regions is checked. However, these results are not met for San Martin and Piura, the main rice producers nationwide. A significant price transmission is verified only in the Lambayeque and La Libertad regions. San Martin and Piura, in spite of being the main rice producing regions of Peru, do not present a significant transmission of international prices; a high degree of self-sufficient supply might be at the center of the logic for this result. An additional finding is the short-term adjustment with respect to international prices, it is higher in La Libertad compared to Lambayeque, which could be explained by the greater bargaining power of intermediaries in the last-mentioned region due to the greater technological development in the mills.

Keywords: asymmetric price transmission, rice prices, price transmission, regional economics

Procedia PDF Downloads 195
20900 A New Study on Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 with Caputo Fractional Derivative

Authors: Sadia Arshad

Abstract:

The new coronavirus disease or COVID-19 still poses an alarming situation around the world. Modeling based on the derivative of fractional order is relatively important to capture real-world problems and to analyze the realistic situation of the proposed model. Weproposed a mathematical model for the investigation of COVID-19 dynamics in a generalized fractional framework. The new model is formulated in the Caputo sense and employs a nonlinear time-varying transmission rate. The existence and uniqueness solutions of the fractional order derivative have been studied using the fixed-point theory. The associated dynamical behaviors are discussed in terms of equilibrium, stability, and basic reproduction number. For the purpose of numerical implementation, an effcient approximation scheme is also employed to solve the fractional COVID-19 model. Numerical simulations are reported for various fractional orders, and simulation results are compared with a real case of COVID-19 pandemic. According to the comparative results with real data, we find the best value of fractional orderand justify the use of the fractional concept in the mathematical modelling, for the new fractional modelsimulates the reality more accurately than the other classical frameworks.

Keywords: fractional calculus, modeling, stability, numerical solution

Procedia PDF Downloads 90
20899 Binding of Avian Excreta-Derived Enteroccoci to a Streptococcocus mutans: Implications for Avian to Human Transmission

Authors: Richard K. Jolley, Jonathan A. Coffman

Abstract:

Since Enterococci has been implicated in oral disease, we hypothesized the transmission of avian Enterococci to humans via fecal-oral transmission facilitated by adherence to dental plaque. To demonstrate the capability of Enterococci to bind to a dental plaque we filtered avian excreta and incubated the filtrate on a sucrose-induced, Streptococcus mutans biofilm. The biofilm was washed several times with a detergent to remove bacteria binding non-specifically to the biofilm, DNA was isolated from the biofilm, 16S rDNA was amplified, sequenced by Ion Torrent DNA sequencing and analyzed with bioinformatics. Enterococci and other known bacterial pathogens were shown to adhere to the biofilm. Culturing the washed biofilm with Bile Esculin Azide (BEA) agar also confirmed the presence of Enterococci as verified with Sanger sequencing. The results suggest that Enteroccoci in avian excreta has the ability to adhere to human dental plaque and may be a mechanism of entry when humans encounter contaminated aerosols, water or food.

Keywords: Enterococci, avian excreta, dental plaque, NGS

Procedia PDF Downloads 140
20898 An Overview of Structure Based Activity Outcomes of Pyran Derivatives Against Alzheimer’s Disease

Authors: Faisal Almalki

Abstract:

Pyran is a heterocyclic group containing oxygen that possesses a variety of pharmacological effects. Pyran is also one of the most prevalent structural subunits in natural products, such as xanthones, coumarins, flavonoids, benzopyrans, etc. Additionally demonstrating the neuroprotective properties of pyrans is the fact that this heterocycle has recently attracted the attention of scientists worldwide. Alzheimer's Disease (AD) treatment and diagnosis are two of the most critical research objectives worldwide. Increased amounts of extracellular senile plaques, intracellular neurofibrillary tangles, and a progressive shutdown of cholinergic basal forebrain neuron transmission are often related with cognitive impairment. This review highlights the various pyran scaffolds of natural and synthetic origin that are effective in the treatment of AD. For better understanding synthetic compounds are categorized as different types of pyran derivatives like chromene, flavone, xanthone, xanthene, etc. The discussion encompasses both the structure-activity correlations of these compounds as well as their activity against AD. Because of the intriguing actions that were uncovered by these pyran-based scaffolds, there is no question that they are at the forefront of the search for potential medication candidates that could treat Alzheimer's disease.

Keywords: alzheimer’s disease, pyran, coumarin, xanthone

Procedia PDF Downloads 54
20897 Evaluation of Progressive Collapse of Transmission Tower

Authors: Jeong-Hwan Choi, Hyo-Sang Park, Tae-Hyung Lee

Abstract:

The transmission tower is one of the crucial lifeline structures in a modern society, and it needs to be protected against extreme loading conditions. However, the transmission tower is a very complex structure and, therefore, it is very difficult to simulate the actual damage and the collapse behavior of the tower structure. In this study, the actual collapse behavior of the transmission tower due to lateral loading conditions such as wind load is evaluated through the computational simulation. For that, a progressive collapse procedure is applied to the simulation. In this procedure, after running the simulation, if a member of the tower structure fails, the failed member is removed and the simulation run again. The 154kV transmission tower is selected for this study. The simulation is performed by nonlinear static analysis procedure, namely pushover analysis, using OpenSEES, an earthquake simulation platform. Three-dimensional finite element models of those towers are developed.

Keywords: transmission tower, OpenSEES, pushover, progressive collapse

Procedia PDF Downloads 337
20896 Design and Implementation of Embedded FM Transmission Control SW for Low Power Battery System

Authors: Young-Su Ryu, Kyung-Won Park, Jae-Hoon Song, Ki-Won Kwon

Abstract:

In this paper, an embedded frequency modulation (FM) transmission control software (SW) for a low power battery system is designed and implemented. The simultaneous translation systems for various languages are needed as so many international conferences and festivals are held in world wide. Especially in portable transmitting and receiving systems, the ability of long operation life is used for a measure of value. This paper proposes an embedded FM transmission control SW for low power battery system and shows the results of the SW implemented on a portable FM transmission system.

Keywords: FM transmission, simultaneous translation system, portable transmitting and receiving systems, low power embedded control SW

Procedia PDF Downloads 426
20895 Identifying Factors Contributing to the Spread of Lyme Disease: A Regression Analysis of Virginia’s Data

Authors: Fatemeh Valizadeh Gamchi, Edward L. Boone

Abstract:

This research focuses on Lyme disease, a widespread infectious condition in the United States caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. It is critical to identify environmental and economic elements that are contributing to the spread of the disease. This study examined data from Virginia to identify a subset of explanatory variables significant for Lyme disease case numbers. To identify relevant variables and avoid overfitting, linear poisson, and regularization regression methods such as a ridge, lasso, and elastic net penalty were employed. Cross-validation was performed to acquire tuning parameters. The methods proposed can automatically identify relevant disease count covariates. The efficacy of the techniques was assessed using four criteria on three simulated datasets. Finally, using the Virginia Department of Health’s Lyme disease data set, the study successfully identified key factors, and the results were consistent with previous studies.

Keywords: lyme disease, Poisson generalized linear model, ridge regression, lasso regression, elastic net regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 109
20894 SVM-RBN Model with Attentive Feature Culling Method for Early Detection of Fruit Plant Diseases

Authors: Piyush Sharma, Devi Prasad Sharma, Sulabh Bansal

Abstract:

Diseases are fairly common in fruits and vegetables because of the changing climatic and environmental circumstances. Crop diseases, which are frequently difficult to control, interfere with the growth and output of the crops. Accurate disease detection and timely disease control measures are required to guarantee high production standards and good quality. In India, apples are a common crop that may be afflicted by a variety of diseases on the fruit, stem, and leaves. It is fungi, bacteria, and viruses that trigger the early symptoms of leaf diseases. In order to assist farmers and take the appropriate action, it is important to develop an automated system that can be used to detect the type of illnesses. Machine learning-based image processing can be used to: this research suggested a system that can automatically identify diseases in apple fruit and apple plants. Hence, this research utilizes the hybrid SVM-RBN model. As a consequence, the model may produce results that are more effective in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 Score, with respective values of 96%, 99%, 94%, and 93%.

Keywords: fruit plant disease, crop disease, machine learning, image processing, SVM-RBN

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20893 3 Dimensional (3D) Assesment of Hippocampus in Alzheimer’s Disease

Authors: Mehmet Bulent Ozdemir, Sultan Çagirici, Sahika Pinar Akyer, Fikri Turk

Abstract:

Neuroanatomical appearance can be correlated with clinical or other characteristics of illness. With the introduction of diagnostic imaging machines, producing 3D images of anatomic structures, calculating the correlation between subjects and pattern of the structures have become possible. The aim of this study is to examine the 3D structure of hippocampus in cases with Alzheimer disease in different dementia severity. For this purpose, 62 female and 38 male- 68 patients’s (age range between 52 and 88) MR scanning were imported to the computer. 3D model of each right and left hippocampus were developed by a computer aided propramme-Surf Driver 3.5. Every reconstruction was taken by the same investigator. There were different apperance of hippocampus from normal to abnormal. In conclusion, These results might improve the understanding of the correlation between the morphological changes in hippocampus and clinical staging in Alzheimer disease.

Keywords: Alzheimer disease, hippocampus, computer-assisted anatomy, 3D

Procedia PDF Downloads 465
20892 Analysis of a Differential System to Get Insights on the Potential Establishment of Microsporidia MB in the Mosquito Population for Malaria Control

Authors: Charlene N. T. Mfangnia, Henri E. Z. Tonnang, Berge Tsanou, Jeremy Herren

Abstract:

Microsporidia MB is a recently discovered symbiont capable of blocking the transmission of Plasmodium from mosquitoes to humans. The symbiont can spread both horizontally and vertically among the mosquito population. This dual transmission gives the symbiont the ability to invade the mosquito population. The replacement of the mosquito population by the population of symbiont-infected mosquitoes then appears as a promising strategy for malaria control. In this context, the present study uses differential equations to model the transmission dynamics of Microsporidia MB in the population of female Anopheles mosquitoes. Long-term propagation scenarios of the symbiont, such as extinction, persistence or total infection, are obtained through the determination of the target and basic reproduction numbers, the equilibria, and the study of their stability. The stability is illustrated numerically, and the contribution of vertical and horizontal transmission in the spread of the symbiont is assessed. Data obtained from laboratory experiments are then used to explain the low prevalence observed in nature. The study also shows that the male death rate, the mating rate and the attractiveness of MB-positive mosquitoes are the factors that most influence the transmission of the symbiont. In addition, the introduction of temperature and the study of bifurcations show the significant influence of the environmental condition in the propagation of Microsporidia MB. This finding proves the necessity of taking into account environmental variables for the potential establishment of the symbiont in a new area.

Keywords: differential equations, stability analysis, malaria, microsporidia MB, horizontal transmission, vertical transmission, numerical illustration

Procedia PDF Downloads 91
20891 Food Poisoning (Salmonellosis) as a Public Health Problem Through Consuming the Meat and Eggs of the Carrier Birds

Authors: M.Younus, M. Athar Khan, Asif Adrees

Abstract:

The present research endeavour was made to investigate the Public Health impact of Salmonellosis through consuming the meat and eggs of the carrier’s birds and to see the prevalence of Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium from poultry feed, poultry meat, and poultry eggs and their role in the chain of transmission of salmonellae to human beings and causing food poisoning. The ultimate objective was to generate data to improve the quality of poultry products and human health awareness. Salmonellosis is one of the most wide spread food borne zoonoses in all the continents of the world. The etiological agents Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium not only produce the disease but during the convalescent phase (after the recovery of disease) remain carriers for indefinite period of time. The carrier state was not only the source of spread of disease with in the poultry but also caused typhoid fever in humans. The chain of transmission started from poultry feed to poultry meat and ultimately to humans as dead end hosts. In this experiment a total number of 200 samples of human stool and blood were collected randomly (100 samples of human stool and 100 samples of human blood) of 100 patients suspected from food poisoning patients from different hospitals of Lahore area for the identification of Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium through PCR method in order to see the public health impact of Salmonellosis through consuming the meat and eggs of the carrier birds. On the average 14 and 10 stool samples were found positive against Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium from each of the 25 patients from each hospital respectively in case of suspected food poisoning patients. Similarly on an average 5% and 6% blood samples were found positive from 25 patients of each hospital respectively. There was a significant difference (P< 0.05) in the sero positivity of stool and blood samples of suspected food poisoning patients as far as Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella typhimurium was concerned. However there was no significant difference (P<0.05) between the hospitals.

Keywords: salmonella, zoonosis, food, transmission, eggs

Procedia PDF Downloads 646
20890 Stability Analysis of Modelling the Effect of Vaccination and Novel Quarantine-Adjusted Incidence on the Spread of Newcastle Disease

Authors: Nurudeen O. Lasisi, Sirajo Abdulrahman, Abdulkareem A. Ibrahim

Abstract:

Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species with the virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In this paper, we study the dynamics of the modeling of the Newcastle disease virus (NDV) using a novel quarantine-adjusted incidence. The comparison of Vaccination, linear incident rate and novel quarantine-adjusted incident rate in the models are discussed. The dynamics of the models yield disease-free and endemic equilibrium states.The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed in order to measure the relative impact of an individual bird or combined intervention for effective disease control. We showed the local and global stability of endemic equilibrium states of the models and we found that the stability of endemic equilibrium states of models are globally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction numbers of the models equations are greater than a unit.

Keywords: effective reproduction number, Endemic state, Mathematical model, Newcastle disease virus, novel quarantine-adjusted incidence, stability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 97
20889 Automatic Classification of Lung Diseases from CT Images

Authors: Abobaker Mohammed Qasem Farhan, Shangming Yang, Mohammed Al-Nehari

Abstract:

Pneumonia is a kind of lung disease that creates congestion in the chest. Such pneumonic conditions lead to loss of life of the severity of high congestion. Pneumonic lung disease is caused by viral pneumonia, bacterial pneumonia, or Covidi-19 induced pneumonia. The early prediction and classification of such lung diseases help to reduce the mortality rate. We propose the automatic Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) system in this paper using the deep learning approach. The proposed CAD system takes input from raw computerized tomography (CT) scans of the patient's chest and automatically predicts disease classification. We designed the Hybrid Deep Learning Algorithm (HDLA) to improve accuracy and reduce processing requirements. The raw CT scans have pre-processed first to enhance their quality for further analysis. We then applied a hybrid model that consists of automatic feature extraction and classification. We propose the robust 2D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model to extract the automatic features from the pre-processed CT image. This CNN model assures feature learning with extremely effective 1D feature extraction for each input CT image. The outcome of the 2D CNN model is then normalized using the Min-Max technique. The second step of the proposed hybrid model is related to training and classification using different classifiers. The simulation outcomes using the publically available dataset prove the robustness and efficiency of the proposed model compared to state-of-art algorithms.

Keywords: CT scan, Covid-19, deep learning, image processing, lung disease classification

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20888 Transmission Network Expansion Planning in Deregulated Power Systems to Facilitate Competition under Uncertainties

Authors: Hooshang Mohammad Alikhani, Javad Nikoukar

Abstract:

Restructuring and deregulation of power industry have changed the objectives of transmission expansion planning and increased the uncertainties. Due to these changes, new approaches and criteria are needed for transmission planning in deregulated power systems. The objective of this research work is to present a new approach for transmission expansion planning with considering new objectives and uncertainties in deregulated power systems. The approach must take into account the desires of all stakeholders in transmission expansion planning. Market based criteria must be defined to achieve the new objectives. Combination of market based criteria, technical criteria and economical criteria must be used for measuring the goodness of expansion plans to achieve market requirements, technical requirements, and economical requirements altogether.

Keywords: deregulated power systems, transmission network, stakeholder, energy systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 631
20887 Transient and Persistent Efficiency Estimation for Electric Grid Utilities Based on Meta-Frontier: Comparative Analysis of China and Japan

Authors: Bai-Chen Xie, Biao Li

Abstract:

With the deepening of international exchanges and investment, the international comparison of power grid firms has become the focus of regulatory authorities. Ignoring the differences in the economic environment, resource endowment, technology, and other aspects of different countries or regions may lead to efficiency bias. Based on the Meta-frontier model, this paper divides China and Japan into two groups by using the data of China and Japan from 2006 to 2020. While preserving the differences between the two countries, it analyzes and compares the efficiency of the transmission and distribution industries of the two countries. Combined with the four-component stochastic frontier model, the efficiency is divided into transient and persistent efficiency. We found that there are obvious differences between the transmission and distribution sectors in China and Japan. On the one hand, the inefficiency of the two countries is mostly caused by long-term and structural problems. The key to improve the efficiency of the two countries is to focus more on solving long-term and structural problems. On the other hand, the long-term and structural problems that cause the inefficiency of the two countries are not the same. Quality factors have different effects on the efficiency of the two countries, and this different effect is captured by the common frontier model but is offset in the overall model. Based on these findings, this paper proposes some targeted policy recommendations.

Keywords: transmission and distribution industries, transient efficiency, persistent efficiency, meta-frontier, international comparison

Procedia PDF Downloads 82
20886 Structural Safety Assessment of Transmission Tower with High-Low Legs

Authors: Chi-Rung Jiang, Chun-Chung Chen, Sheng-Yuan Shiao, Fang-Yao Yeh

Abstract:

Transmission lines are essential for power systems which play a significant role in a city for the development of infrastructures. Once a tower on the transmission line is damaged or becomes unstable, small-scale transmission tower damage might cause a large-scale electric power failure, and consequently, the enormous economic losses will occur. This paper assesses the structural safety and considers the impact of earthquakes and winds, presents a preliminary study of transmission tower with high-low legs by building structural analysis models of towers. The result shows that the high-low legs towers do have some structural characteristics need to be considered, such as the length of the difference of high legs and low legs should be restricted and the deployment direction of legs must be carefully planned during the design of transmission towers. The outcome of this study is beneficial to power systems authorities.

Keywords: power transition tower, structural analysis, high-low legs, safety assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 206
20885 The Best Prediction Data Mining Model for Breast Cancer Probability in Women Residents in Kabul

Authors: Mina Jafari, Kobra Hamraee, Saied Hossein Hosseini

Abstract:

The prediction of breast cancer disease is one of the challenges in medicine. In this paper we collected 528 records of women’s information who live in Kabul including demographic, life style, diet and pregnancy data. There are many classification algorithm in breast cancer prediction and tried to find the best model with most accurate result and lowest error rate. We evaluated some other common supervised algorithms in data mining to find the best model in prediction of breast cancer disease among afghan women living in Kabul regarding to momography result as target variable. For evaluating these algorithms we used Cross Validation which is an assured method for measuring the performance of models. After comparing error rate and accuracy of three models: Decision Tree, Naive Bays and Rule Induction, Decision Tree with accuracy of 94.06% and error rate of %15 is found the best model to predicting breast cancer disease based on the health care records.

Keywords: decision tree, breast cancer, probability, data mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 122
20884 Application of Support Vector Machines in Fault Detection and Diagnosis of Power Transmission Lines

Authors: I. A. Farhat, M. Bin Hasan

Abstract:

A developed approach for the protection of power transmission lines using Support Vector Machines (SVM) technique is presented. In this paper, the SVM technique is utilized for the classification and isolation of faults in power transmission lines. Accurate fault classification and location results are obtained for all possible types of short circuit faults. As in distance protection, the approach utilizes the voltage and current post-fault samples as inputs. The main advantage of the method introduced here is that the method could easily be extended to any power transmission line.

Keywords: fault detection, classification, diagnosis, power transmission line protection, support vector machines (SVM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 543
20883 Stability Analysis of Endemic State of Modelling the Effect of Vaccination and Novel Quarantine-Adjusted Incidence on the Spread of Newcastle Disease Virus

Authors: Nurudeen Oluwasola Lasisi, Abdulkareem Afolabi Ibrahim

Abstract:

Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species with virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In this paper, we study the dynamics of modeling the Newcastle disease virus (NDV) using a novel quarantine-adjusted incidence. We do a comparison of Vaccination, linear incident rate, and novel quarantine adjusted incident rate in the models. The dynamics of the models yield disease free and endemic equilibrium states. The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed in order to measure the relative impact for the individual bird or combined intervention for effective disease control. We showed the local and global stability of endemic equilibrium states of the models, and we found that stability of endemic equilibrium states of models are globally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction numbers of the models equations are greater than a unit.

Keywords: effective reproduction number, endemic state, mathematical model, Newcastle disease virus, novel quarantine-adjusted incidence, stability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 225
20882 Software Reliability Prediction Model Analysis

Authors: Lela Mirtskhulava, Mariam Khunjgurua, Nino Lomineishvili, Koba Bakuria

Abstract:

Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability

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20881 Effects of Manufacture and Assembly Errors on the Output Error of Globoidal Cam Mechanisms

Authors: Shuting Ji, Yueming Zhang, Jing Zhao

Abstract:

The output error of the globoidal cam mechanism can be considered as a relevant indicator of mechanism performance, because it determines kinematic and dynamical behavior of mechanical transmission. Based on the differential geometry and the rigid body transformations, the mathematical model of surface geometry of the globoidal cam is established. Then we present the analytical expression of the output error (including the transmission error and the displacement error along the output axis) by considering different manufacture and assembly errors. The effects of the center distance error, the perpendicular error between input and output axes and the rotational angle error of the globoidal cam on the output error are systematically analyzed. A globoidal cam mechanism which is widely used in automatic tool changer of CNC machines is applied for illustration. Our results show that the perpendicular error and the rotational angle error have little effects on the transmission error but have great effects on the displacement error along the output axis. This study plays an important role in the design, manufacture and assembly of the globoidal cam mechanism.

Keywords: globoidal cam mechanism, manufacture error, transmission error, automatic tool changer

Procedia PDF Downloads 551
20880 Biomechanical Prediction of Veins and Soft Tissues beneath Compression Stockings Using Fluid-Solid Interaction Model

Authors: Chongyang Ye, Rong Liu

Abstract:

Elastic compression stockings (ECSs) have been widely applied in prophylaxis and treatment of chronic venous insufficiency of lower extremities. The medical function of ECS is to improve venous return and increase muscular pumping action to facilitate blood circulation, which is largely determined by the complex interaction between the ECS and lower limb tissues. Understanding the mechanical transmission of ECS along the skin surface, deeper tissues, and vascular system is essential to assess the effectiveness of the ECSs. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) finite element (FE) model of the leg-ECS system integrated with a 3D fluid-solid interaction (FSI) model of the leg-vein system was constructed to analyze the biomechanical properties of veins and soft tissues under different ECS compression. The Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) of the human leg was divided into three regions, including soft tissues, bones (tibia and fibula) and veins (peroneal vein, great saphenous vein, and small saphenous vein). The ECSs with pressure ranges from 15 to 26 mmHg (Classes I and II) were adopted in the developed FE-FSI model. The soft tissue was assumed as a Neo-Hookean hyperelastic model with the fixed bones, and the ECSs were regarded as an orthotropic elastic shell. The interfacial pressure and stress transmission were simulated by the FE model, and venous hemodynamics properties were simulated by the FSI model. The experimental validation indicated that the simulated interfacial pressure distributions were in accordance with the pressure measurement results. The developed model can be used to predict interfacial pressure, stress transmission, and venous hemodynamics exerted by ECSs and optimize the structure and materials properties of ECSs design, thus improving the efficiency of compression therapy.

Keywords: elastic compression stockings, fluid-solid interaction, tissue and vein properties, prediction

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20879 Transmission Line Protection Challenges under High Penetration of Renewable Energy Sources and Proposed Solutions: A Review

Authors: Melake Kuflom

Abstract:

European power networks involve the use of multiple overhead transmission lines to construct a highly duplicated system that delivers reliable and stable electrical energy to the distribution level. The transmission line protection applied in the existing GB transmission network are normally independent unit differential and time stepped distance protection schemes, referred to as main-1 & main-2 respectively, with overcurrent protection as a backup. The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, commonly referred as “weak sources,” into the power network resulted in the decline of fault level. Traditionally, the fault level of the GB transmission network has been strong; hence the fault current contribution is more than sufficient to ensure the correct operation of the protection schemes. However, numerous conventional coal and nuclear generators have been or about to shut down due to the societal requirement for CO2 emission reduction, and this has resulted in a reduction in the fault level on some transmission lines, and therefore an adaptive transmission line protection is required. Generally, greater utilization of renewable energy sources generated from wind or direct solar energy results in a reduction of CO2 carbon emission and can increase the system security and reliability but reduces the fault level, which has an adverse effect on protection. Consequently, the effectiveness of conventional protection schemes under low fault levels needs to be reviewed, particularly for future GB transmission network operating scenarios. The proposed paper will evaluate the transmission line challenges under high penetration of renewable energy sources andprovides alternative viable protection solutions based on the problem observed. The paper will consider the assessment ofrenewable energy sources (RES) based on a fully rated converter technology. The DIgSILENT Power Factory software tool will be used to model the network.

Keywords: fault level, protection schemes, relay settings, relay coordination, renewable energy sources

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20878 Machine Learning for Disease Prediction Using Symptoms and X-Ray Images

Authors: Ravija Gunawardana, Banuka Athuraliya

Abstract:

Machine learning has emerged as a powerful tool for disease diagnosis and prediction. The use of machine learning algorithms has the potential to improve the accuracy of disease prediction, thereby enabling medical professionals to provide more effective and personalized treatments. This study focuses on developing a machine-learning model for disease prediction using symptoms and X-ray images. The importance of this study lies in its potential to assist medical professionals in accurately diagnosing diseases, thereby improving patient outcomes. Respiratory diseases are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and chest X-rays are commonly used in the diagnosis of these diseases. However, accurately interpreting X-ray images requires significant expertise and can be time-consuming, making it difficult to diagnose respiratory diseases in a timely manner. By incorporating machine learning algorithms, we can significantly enhance disease prediction accuracy, ultimately leading to better patient care. The study utilized the Mask R-CNN algorithm, which is a state-of-the-art method for object detection and segmentation in images, to process chest X-ray images. The model was trained and tested on a large dataset of patient information, which included both symptom data and X-ray images. The performance of the model was evaluated using a range of metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. The results showed that the model achieved an accuracy rate of over 90%, indicating that it was able to accurately detect and segment regions of interest in the X-ray images. In addition to X-ray images, the study also incorporated symptoms as input data for disease prediction. The study used three different classifiers, namely Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbor and Support Vector Machine, to predict diseases based on symptoms. These classifiers were trained and tested using the same dataset of patient information as the X-ray model. The results showed promising accuracy rates for predicting diseases using symptoms, with the ensemble learning techniques significantly improving the accuracy of disease prediction. The study's findings indicate that the use of machine learning algorithms can significantly enhance disease prediction accuracy, ultimately leading to better patient care. The model developed in this study has the potential to assist medical professionals in diagnosing respiratory diseases more accurately and efficiently. However, it is important to note that the accuracy of the model can be affected by several factors, including the quality of the X-ray images, the size of the dataset used for training, and the complexity of the disease being diagnosed. In conclusion, the study demonstrated the potential of machine learning algorithms for disease prediction using symptoms and X-ray images. The use of these algorithms can improve the accuracy of disease diagnosis, ultimately leading to better patient care. Further research is needed to validate the model's accuracy and effectiveness in a clinical setting and to expand its application to other diseases.

Keywords: K-nearest neighbor, mask R-CNN, random forest, support vector machine

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20877 Available Transmission Transfer Efficiency (ATTE) as an Index Measurement for Power Transmission Grid Performance

Authors: Ahmad Abubakar Sadiq, Nwohu Ndubuka Mark, Jacob Tsado, Ahmad Adam Asharaf, Agbachi E. Okenna, Enesi E. Yahaya, Ambafi James Garba

Abstract:

Transmission system performance analysis is vital to proper planning and operations of power systems in the presence of deregulation. Key performance indicators (KPIs) are often used as measure of degree of performance. This paper gives a novel method to determine the transmission efficiency by evaluating the ratio of real power losses incurred from a specified transfer direction. Available Transmission Transfer Efficiency (ATTE) expresses the percentage of real power received resulting from inter-area available power transfer. The Tie line (Rated system path) performance is seen to differ from system wide (Network response) performance and ATTE values obtained are transfer direction specific. The required sending end quantities with specified receiving end ATC and the receiving end power circle diagram are obtained for the tie line analysis. The amount of real power loss load relative to the available transfer capability gives a measure of the transmission grid efficiency.

Keywords: performance, transmission system, real power efficiency, available transfer capability

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20876 Hepatitis B Vaccination Status and Its Determinants among Primary Health Care Workers in Northwest Pakistan

Authors: Mohammad Tahir Yousafzai, Rubina Qasim

Abstract:

We assessed Hepatitis B vaccination and its determinants among health care workers (HCW) in Northwest Pakistan. HCWs from both public and private clinics were interviewed about hepatitis B vaccination, socio-demographic, hepatitis B virus transmission modes, disease threat and benefits of vaccination. Logistic regression was performed. Hepatitis B vaccination was 40% (Qualified Physicians: 86% and non-qualified Dispensers:16%). Being Qualified Physician (Adj. OR 26.6; 95%CI 9.3-73.2), Non-qualified Physician (Adj.OR 1.9; 95%CI 0.8-4.6), qualified Dispensers (Adj. OR 3.6; 95%CI 1.3-9.5) compared to non-qualified Dispensers, working in public clinics (Adj. OR 2.5; 95%CI 1.1-5.7) compared to private, perceived disease threat after exposure to blood and body fluids (Adj. OR 1.1; 95%CI 1.1-1.2) and perceived benefits of vaccination (Adj. OR 1.1; 95%CI 1.1-1.2) were significant predictors of hepatitis B vaccination. Improved perception of disease threat and benefits of vaccination and qualification of HCWs are associated with hepatitis B vaccination.

Keywords: Hepatitis B vaccine, immunization, healthcare workers, primary health

Procedia PDF Downloads 293
20875 Parameter Estimation of Additive Genetic and Unique Environment (AE) Model on Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 Using Bayesian Method

Authors: Andi Darmawan, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih

Abstract:

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic disease in human that occurred if pancreas cannot produce enough of insulin hormone or the body uses ineffectively insulin hormone which causes increasing level of glucose in the blood, or it was called hyperglycemia. In Indonesia, DM is a serious disease on health because it can cause blindness, kidney disease, diabetic feet (gangrene), and stroke. The type of DM criteria can also be divided based on the main causes; they are DM type 1, type 2, and gestational. Diabetes type 1 or previously known as insulin-independent diabetes is due to a lack of production of insulin hormone. Diabetes type 2 or previously known as non-insulin dependent diabetes is due to ineffective use of insulin while gestational diabetes is a hyperglycemia that found during pregnancy. The most one type commonly found in patient is DM type 2. The main factors of this disease are genetic (A) and life style (E). Those disease with 2 factors can be constructed with additive genetic and unique environment (AE) model. In this article was discussed parameter estimation of AE model using Bayesian method and the inheritance character simulation on parent-offspring. On the AE model, there are response variable, predictor variables, and parameters were capable of representing the number of population on research. The population can be measured through a taken random sample. The response and predictor variables can be determined by sample while the parameters are unknown, so it was required to estimate the parameters based on the sample. Estimation of AE model parameters was obtained based on a joint posterior distribution. The simulation was conducted to get the value of genetic variance and life style variance. The results of simulation are 0.3600 for genetic variance and 0.0899 for life style variance. Therefore, the variance of genetic factor in DM type 2 is greater than life style.

Keywords: AE model, Bayesian method, diabetes mellitus type 2, genetic, life style

Procedia PDF Downloads 261