Search results for: stock predictions
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1409

Search results for: stock predictions

269 Structural Health Monitoring using Fibre Bragg Grating Sensors in Slab and Beams

Authors: Pierre van Tonder, Dinesh Muthoo, Kim twiname

Abstract:

Many existing and newly built structures are constructed on the design basis of the engineer and the workmanship of the construction company. However, when considering larger structures where more people are exposed to the building, its structural integrity is of great importance considering the safety of its occupants (Raghu, 2013). But how can the structural integrity of a building be monitored efficiently and effectively. This is where the fourth industrial revolution step in, and with minimal human interaction, data can be collected, analysed, and stored, which could also give an indication of any inconsistencies found in the data collected, this is where the Fibre Bragg Grating (FBG) monitoring system is introduced. This paper illustrates how data can be collected and converted to develop stress – strain behaviour and to produce bending moment diagrams for the utilisation and prediction of the structure’s integrity. Embedded fibre optic sensors were used in this study– fibre Bragg grating sensors in particular. The procedure entailed making use of the shift in wavelength demodulation technique and an inscription process of the phase mask technique. The fibre optic sensors considered in this report were photosensitive and embedded in the slab and beams for data collection and analysis. Two sets of fibre cables have been inserted, one purposely to collect temperature recordings and the other to collect strain and temperature. The data was collected over a time period and analysed used to produce bending moment diagrams to make predictions of the structure’s integrity. The data indicated the fibre Bragg grating sensing system proved to be useful and can be used for structural health monitoring in any environment. From the experimental data for the slab and beams, the moments were found to be64.33 kN.m, 64.35 kN.m and 45.20 kN.m (from the experimental bending moment diagram), and as per the idealistic (Ultimate Limit State), the data of 133 kN.m and 226.2 kN.m were obtained. The difference in values gave room for an early warning system, in other words, a reserve capacity of approximately 50% to failure.

Keywords: fibre bragg grating, structural health monitoring, fibre optic sensors, beams

Procedia PDF Downloads 124
268 Neural Network Mechanisms Underlying the Combination Sensitivity Property in the HVC of Songbirds

Authors: Zeina Merabi, Arij Dao

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The temporal order of information processing in the brain is an important code in many acoustic signals, including speech, music, and animal vocalizations. Despite its significance, surprisingly little is known about its underlying cellular mechanisms and network manifestations. In the songbird telencephalic nucleus HVC, a subset of neurons shows temporal combination sensitivity (TCS). These neurons show a high temporal specificity, responding differently to distinct patterns of spectral elements and their combinations. HVC neuron types include basal-ganglia-projecting HVCX, forebrain-projecting HVCRA, and interneurons (HVC¬INT), each exhibiting distinct cellular, electrophysiological and functional properties. In this work, we develop conductance-based neural network models connecting the different classes of HVC neurons via different wiring scenarios, aiming to explore possible neural mechanisms that orchestrate the combination sensitivity property exhibited by HVCX, as well as replicating in vivo firing patterns observed when TCS neurons are presented with various auditory stimuli. The ionic and synaptic currents for each class of neurons that are presented in our networks and are based on pharmacological studies, rendering our networks biologically plausible. We present for the first time several realistic scenarios in which the different types of HVC neurons can interact to produce this behavior. The different networks highlight neural mechanisms that could potentially help to explain some aspects of combination sensitivity, including 1) interplay between inhibitory interneurons’ activity and the post inhibitory firing of the HVCX neurons enabled by T-type Ca2+ and H currents, 2) temporal summation of synaptic inputs at the TCS site of opposing signals that are time-and frequency- dependent, and 3) reciprocal inhibitory and excitatory loops as a potent mechanism to encode information over many milliseconds. The result is a plausible network model characterizing auditory processing in HVC. Our next step is to test the predictions of the model.

Keywords: combination sensitivity, songbirds, neural networks, spatiotemporal integration

Procedia PDF Downloads 51
267 Abridging Pharmaceutical Analysis and Drug Discovery via LC-MS-TOF, NMR, in-silico Toxicity-Bioactivity Profiling for Therapeutic Purposing Zileuton Impurities: Need of Hour

Authors: Saurabh B. Ganorkar, Atul A. Shirkhedkar

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The need for investigations protecting against toxic impurities though seems to be a primary requirement; the impurities which may prove non - toxic can be explored for their therapeutic potential if any to assist advanced drug discovery. The essential role of pharmaceutical analysis can thus be extended effectively to achieve it. The present study successfully achieved these objectives with characterization of major degradation products as impurities for Zileuton which has been used for to treat asthma since years. The forced degradation studies were performed to identify the potential degradation products using Ultra-fine Liquid-chromatography. Liquid-chromatography-Mass spectrometry (Time of Flight) and Proton Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Studies were utilized effectively to characterize the drug along with five major oxidative and hydrolytic degradation products (DP’s). The mass fragments were identified for Zileuton and path for the degradation was investigated. The characterized DP’s were subjected to In-Silico studies as XP Molecular Docking to compare the gain or loss in binding affinity with 5-Lipooxygenase enzyme. One of the impurity of was found to have the binding affinity more than the drug itself indicating for its potential to be more bioactive as better Antiasthmatic. The close structural resemblance has the ability to potentiate or reduce bioactivity and or toxicity. The chances of being active biologically at other sites cannot be denied and the same is achieved to some extent by predictions for probability of being active with Prediction of Activity Spectrum for Substances (PASS) The impurities found to be bio-active as Antineoplastic, Antiallergic, and inhibitors of Complement Factor D. The toxicological abilities as Ames-Mutagenicity, Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity and Skin Irritancy were evaluated using Toxicity Prediction by Komputer Assisted Technology (TOPKAT). Two of the impurities were found to be non-toxic as compared to original drug Zileuton. As the drugs are purposed and repurposed effectively the impurities can also be; as they can have more binding affinity; less toxicity and better ability to be bio-active at other biological targets.

Keywords: UFLC, LC-MS-TOF, NMR, Zileuton, impurities, toxicity, bio-activity

Procedia PDF Downloads 183
266 Analysis and the Fair Distribution Modeling of Urban Facilities in Kabul City

Authors: Ansari Mohammad Reza, Hiroko Ono, Fakhrullah Sarwari

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Our world is fast heading toward being a predominantly urban planet. This can be a double-edged sword reality where it is as much frightening as it seems interesting. Moreover, a look to the current predictions and taking into the consideration the fact that about 90 percent of the coming urbanization is going to be absorbed by the towns and the cities of the developing countries of Asia and Africa, directly provide us the clues to assume a much more tragic ending to this story than to the happy one. Likewise, in a situation wherein most of these countries are still severely struggling to find the proper answer to their very first initial questions of urbanization—e.g. how to provide the essential structure for their cities, define the regulation, or even design the proper pattern on how the cities should be expanded—thus it is not weird to claim that most of the coming urbanization of the world is going to happen informally. This reality could not only bring the feature, landscape or the picture of the cities of the future under the doubt but at the same time provide the ground for the rise of a bunch of other essential questions of how the facilities would be distributed in these cities, or how fair will this pattern of distribution be. Kabul the capital of Afghanistan, as a city located in the developing world that its process of urbanization has been starting since 2001 and currently hold the position to be the fifth fastest growing city in the world, contained to a considerable slum ratio of 0.7—that means about 70 percent of its population is living in the informal areas—subsequently could be a very good case study to put this questions into the research and find out how the informal development of a city can lead to the unfair and unbalanced distribution of its facilities. Likewise, in this study we tried our best to first propose the ideal model for the fair distribution of the facilities in the Kabul city—where all the citizens have the same equal chance of access to the facilities—and then evaluate the situation of the city based on how fair the facilities are currently distributed therein. We subsequently did it by the comparative analysis between the existing facility rate in the formal and informal areas of the city to the one that was proposed as the fair ideal model.

Keywords: Afghanistan, facility distribution, formal settlements, informal settlements, Kabul

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
265 Geospatial Analysis for Predicting Sinkhole Susceptibility in Greene County, Missouri

Authors: Shishay Kidanu, Abdullah Alhaj

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Sinkholes in the karst terrain of Greene County, Missouri, pose significant geohazards, imposing challenges on construction and infrastructure development, with potential threats to lives and property. To address these issues, understanding the influencing factors and modeling sinkhole susceptibility is crucial for effective mitigation through strategic changes in land use planning and practices. This study utilizes geographic information system (GIS) software to collect and process diverse data, including topographic, geologic, hydrogeologic, and anthropogenic information. Nine key sinkhole influencing factors, ranging from slope characteristics to proximity to geological structures, were carefully analyzed. The Frequency Ratio method establishes relationships between attribute classes of these factors and sinkhole events, deriving class weights to indicate their relative importance. Weighted integration of these factors is accomplished using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method in a GIS environment, resulting in a comprehensive sinkhole susceptibility index (SSI) model for the study area. Employing Jenk's natural break classifier method, the SSI values are categorized into five distinct sinkhole susceptibility zones: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Validation of the model, conducted through the Area Under Curve (AUC) and Sinkhole Density Index (SDI) methods, demonstrates a robust correlation with sinkhole inventory data. The prediction rate curve yields an AUC value of 74%, indicating a 74% validation accuracy. The SDI result further supports the success of the sinkhole susceptibility model. This model offers reliable predictions for the future distribution of sinkholes, providing valuable insights for planners and engineers in the formulation of development plans and land-use strategies. Its application extends to enhancing preparedness and minimizing the impact of sinkhole-related geohazards on both infrastructure and the community.

Keywords: sinkhole, GIS, analytical hierarchy process, frequency ratio, susceptibility, Missouri

Procedia PDF Downloads 63
264 The Impact of Board Characteristics on Firm Performance: Evidence from Banking Industry in India

Authors: Manmeet Kaur, Madhu Vij

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The Board of Directors in a firm performs the primary role of an internal control mechanism. This Study seeks to understand the relationship between internal governance and performance of banks in India. The research paper investigates the effect of board structure (proportion of nonexecutive directors, gender diversity, board size and meetings per year) on the firm performance. This paper evaluates the impact of corporate governance mechanisms on bank’s financial performance using panel data for 28 listed banks in National Stock Exchange of India for the period of 2008-2014. Returns on Asset, Return on Equity, Tobin’s Q and Net Interest Margin were used as the financial performance indicators. To estimate the relationship among governance and bank performance initially the Study uses Pooled Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Estimation and Generalized Least Square (GLS) Estimation. Then a well-developed panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Estimator is developed to investigate the dynamic nature of performance and governance relationship. The Study empirically confirms that two-step system GMM approach controls the problem of unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity as compared to the OLS and GLS approach. The result suggests that banks with small board, boards with female members, and boards that meet more frequently tend to be more efficient and subsequently have a positive impact on performance of banks. The study offers insights to policy makers interested in enhancing the quality of governance of banks in India. Also, the findings suggest that board structure plays a vital role in the improvement of corporate governance mechanism for financial institutions. There is a need to have efficient boards in banks to improve the overall health of the financial institutions and the economic development of the country.

Keywords: board of directors, corporate governance, GMM estimation, Indian banking

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
263 Intermittent Effect of Coupled Thermal and Acoustic Sources on Combustion: A Spatial Perspective

Authors: Pallavi Gajjar, Vinayak Malhotra

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Rockets have been known to have played a predominant role in spacecraft propulsion. The quintessential aspect of combustion-related requirements of a rocket engine is the minimization of the surrounding risks/hazards. Over time, it has become imperative to understand the combustion rate variation in presence of external energy source(s). Rocket propulsion represents a special domain of chemical propulsion assisted by high speed flows in presence of acoustics and thermal source(s). Jet noise leads to a significant loss of resources and every year a huge amount of financial aid is spent to prevent it. External heat source(s) induce high possibility of fire risk/hazards which can sufficiently endanger the operation of a space vehicle. Appreciable work had been done with justifiable simplification and emphasis on the linear variation of external energy source(s), which yields good physical insight but does not cater to accurate predictions. Present work experimentally attempts to understand the correlation between inter-energy conversions with the non-linear placement of external energy source(s). The work is motivated by the need to have better fire safety and enhanced combustion. The specific objectives of the work are a) To interpret the related energy transfer for combustion in presence of alternate external energy source(s) viz., thermal and acoustic, b) To fundamentally understand the role of key controlling parameters viz., separation distance, the number of the source(s), selected configurations and their non-linear variation to resemble real-life cases. An experimental setup was prepared using incense sticks as potential fuel and paraffin wax candles as the external energy source(s). The acoustics was generated using frequency generator, and source(s) were placed at selected locations. Non-equidistant parametric experimentation was carried out, and the effects were noted on regression rate changes. The results are expected to be very helpful in offering a new perspective into futuristic rocket designs and safety.

Keywords: combustion, acoustic energy, external energy sources, regression rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
262 Development of Wide Bandgap Semiconductor Based Particle Detector

Authors: Rupa Jeena, Pankaj Chetry, Pradeep Sarin

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The study of fundamental particles and the forces governing them has always remained an attractive field of theoretical study to pursue. With the advancement and development of new technologies and instruments, it is possible now to perform particle physics experiments on a large scale for the validation of theoretical predictions. These experiments are generally carried out in a highly intense beam environment. This, in turn, requires the development of a detector prototype possessing properties like radiation tolerance, thermal stability, and fast timing response. Semiconductors like Silicon, Germanium, Diamond, and Gallium Nitride (GaN) have been widely used for particle detection applications. Silicon and germanium being narrow bandgap semiconductors, require pre-cooling to suppress the effect of noise by thermally generated intrinsic charge carriers. The application of diamond in large-scale experiments is rare owing to its high cost of fabrication, while GaN is one of the most extensively explored potential candidates. But we are aiming to introduce another wide bandgap semiconductor in this active area of research by considering all the requirements. We have made an attempt by utilizing the wide bandgap of rutile Titanium dioxide (TiO2) and other properties to use it for particle detection purposes. The thermal evaporation-oxidation (in PID furnace) technique is used for the deposition of the film, and the Metal Semiconductor Metal (MSM) electrical contacts are made using Titanium+Gold (Ti+Au) (20/80nm). The characterization comprising X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM), Ultraviolet (UV)-Visible spectroscopy, and Laser Raman Spectroscopy (LRS) has been performed on the film to get detailed information about surface morphology. On the other hand, electrical characterizations like Current Voltage (IV) measurement in dark and light and test with laser are performed to have a better understanding of the working of the detector prototype. All these preliminary tests of the detector will be presented.

Keywords: particle detector, rutile titanium dioxide, thermal evaporation, wide bandgap semiconductors

Procedia PDF Downloads 67
261 A Comprehensive Survey on Machine Learning Techniques and User Authentication Approaches for Credit Card Fraud Detection

Authors: Niloofar Yousefi, Marie Alaghband, Ivan Garibay

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With the increase of credit card usage, the volume of credit card misuse also has significantly increased, which may cause appreciable financial losses for both credit card holders and financial organizations issuing credit cards. As a result, financial organizations are working hard on developing and deploying credit card fraud detection methods, in order to adapt to ever-evolving, increasingly sophisticated defrauding strategies and identifying illicit transactions as quickly as possible to protect themselves and their customers. Compounding on the complex nature of such adverse strategies, credit card fraudulent activities are rare events compared to the number of legitimate transactions. Hence, the challenge to develop fraud detection that are accurate and efficient is substantially intensified and, as a consequence, credit card fraud detection has lately become a very active area of research. In this work, we provide a survey of current techniques most relevant to the problem of credit card fraud detection. We carry out our survey in two main parts. In the first part, we focus on studies utilizing classical machine learning models, which mostly employ traditional transnational features to make fraud predictions. These models typically rely on some static physical characteristics, such as what the user knows (knowledge-based method), or what he/she has access to (object-based method). In the second part of our survey, we review more advanced techniques of user authentication, which use behavioral biometrics to identify an individual based on his/her unique behavior while he/she is interacting with his/her electronic devices. These approaches rely on how people behave (instead of what they do), which cannot be easily forged. By providing an overview of current approaches and the results reported in the literature, this survey aims to drive the future research agenda for the community in order to develop more accurate, reliable and scalable models of credit card fraud detection.

Keywords: Credit Card Fraud Detection, User Authentication, Behavioral Biometrics, Machine Learning, Literature Survey

Procedia PDF Downloads 102
260 Application of Multilayer Perceptron and Markov Chain Analysis Based Hybrid-Approach for Predicting and Monitoring the Pattern of LULC Using Random Forest Classification in Jhelum District, Punjab, Pakistan

Authors: Basit Aftab, Zhichao Wang, Feng Zhongke

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Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) is a critical environmental issue that has significant effects on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and climate change. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) across a three-decade period (1992–2022) in a district area. The goal is to support sustainable land management and urban planning by utilizing the combination of remote sensing, GIS data, and observations from Landsat satellites 5 and 8 to provide precise predictions of the trajectory of urban sprawl. In order to forecast the LULCC patterns, this study suggests a hybrid strategy that combines the Random Forest method with Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Markov Chain analysis. To predict the dynamics of LULC change for the year 2035, a hybrid technique based on multilayer Perceptron and Markov Chain Model Analysis (MLP-MCA) was employed. The area of developed land has increased significantly, while the amount of bare land, vegetation, and forest cover have all decreased. This is because the principal land types have changed due to population growth and economic expansion. The study also discovered that between 1998 and 2023, the built-up area increased by 468 km² as a result of the replacement of natural resources. It is estimated that 25.04% of the study area's urbanization will be increased by 2035. The performance of the model was confirmed with an overall accuracy of 90% and a kappa coefficient of around 0.89. It is important to use advanced predictive models to guide sustainable urban development strategies. It provides valuable insights for policymakers, land managers, and researchers to support sustainable land use planning, conservation efforts, and climate change mitigation strategies.

Keywords: land use land cover, Markov chain model, multi-layer perceptron, random forest, sustainable land, remote sensing.

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259 Comparative Evaluation of Root Uptake Models for Developing Moisture Uptake Based Irrigation Schedules for Crops

Authors: Vijay Shankar

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In the era of water scarcity, effective use of water via irrigation requires good methods for determining crop water needs. Implementation of irrigation scheduling programs requires an accurate estimate of water use by the crop. Moisture depletion from the root zone represents the consequent crop evapotranspiration (ET). A numerical model for simulating soil water depletion in the root zone has been developed by taking into consideration soil physical properties, crop and climatic parameters. The governing differential equation for unsaturated flow of water in the soil is solved numerically using the fully implicit finite difference technique. The water uptake by plants is simulated by using three different sink functions. The non-linear model predictions are in good agreement with field data and thus it is possible to schedule irrigations more effectively. The present paper describes irrigation scheduling based on moisture depletion from the different layers of the root zone, obtained using different sink functions for three cash, oil and forage crops: cotton, safflower and barley, respectively. The soil is considered at a moisture level equal to field capacity prior to planting. Two soil moisture regimes are then imposed for irrigated treatment, one wherein irrigation is applied whenever soil moisture content is reduced to 50% of available soil water; and other wherein irrigation is applied whenever soil moisture content is reduced to 75% of available soil water. For both the soil moisture regimes it has been found that the model incorporating a non-linear sink function which provides best agreement of computed root zone moisture depletion with field data, is most effective in scheduling irrigations. Simulation runs with this moisture uptake function result in saving 27.3 to 45.5% & 18.7 to 37.5%, 12.5 to 25% % &16.7 to 33.3% and 16.7 to 33.3% & 20 to 40% irrigation water for cotton, safflower and barley respectively, under 50 & 75% moisture depletion regimes over other moisture uptake functions considered in the study. Simulation developed can be used for an optimized irrigation planning for different crops, choosing a suitable soil moisture regime depending upon the irrigation water availability and crop requirements.

Keywords: irrigation water, evapotranspiration, root uptake models, water scarcity

Procedia PDF Downloads 316
258 In-silico DFT Study, Molecular Docking, ADMET Predictions, and DMS of Isoxazolidine and Isoxazoline Analogs with Anticancer Properties

Authors: Moulay Driss Mellaoui, Khadija Zaki, Khalid Abbiche, Abdallah Imjjad, Rachid Boutiddar, Abdelouahid Sbai, Aaziz Jmiai, Souad El Issami, Al Mokhtar Lamsabhi, Hanane Zejli

Abstract:

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of six isoxazolidine and isoxazoline derivatives, leveraging a multifaceted approach that combines Density Functional Theory (DFT), AdmetSAR analysis, and molecular docking simulations to explore their electronic, pharmacokinetic, and anticancer properties. Through DFT analysis, using the B3LYP-D3BJ functional and the 6-311++G(d,p) basis set, we optimized molecular geometries, analyzed vibrational frequencies, and mapped Molecular Electrostatic Potentials (MEP), identifying key sites for electrophilic attacks and hydrogen bonding. Frontier Molecular Orbital (FMO) analysis and Density of States (DOS) plots revealed varying stability levels among the compounds, with 1b, 2b, and 3b showing slightly higher stability. Chemical potential assessments indicated differences in binding affinities, suggesting stronger potential interactions for compounds 1b and 2b. AdmetSAR analysis predicted favorable human intestinal absorption (HIA) rates for all compounds, highlighting compound 3b superior oral effectiveness. Molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulations were conducted on isoxazolidine and 4-isoxazoline derivatives targeting the EGFR receptor (PDB: 1JU6). Molecular docking simulations confirmed the high affinity of these compounds towards the target protein 1JU6, particularly compound 3b, among the isoxazolidine derivatives, compound 3b exhibited the most favorable binding energy, with a g score of -8.50 kcal/mol. Molecular dynamics simulations over 100 nanoseconds demonstrated the stability and potential of compound 3b as a superior candidate for anticancer applications, further supported by structural analyses including RMSD, RMSF, Rg, and SASA values. This study underscores the promising role of compound 3b in anticancer treatments, providing a solid foundation for future drug development and optimization efforts.

Keywords: isoxazolines, DFT, molecular docking, molecular dynamic, ADMET, drugs.

Procedia PDF Downloads 25
257 Growth Pattern, Condition Factor and Relative Condition Factor of Twenty Important Demersal Marine Fish Species in Nigerian Coastal Water

Authors: Omogoriola Hannah Omoloye

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Fish is a key ingredient on the global menu, a vital factor in the global environment and an important basis for livelihood worldwide1. The length – weight relationships (LWRs) is of great importance in fishery assessment2,3. Its importance is pronounced in estimated the average weight at a given length group4 and in assessing the relative well being of a fish population5. Length and weight measurement in conjunction with age data can give information on the stock composition, age at maturity, life span, mortality, growth and production4,5,6,7. In addition, the data on length and weight can also provides important clues to climatic and environmental changes and the change in human consumption practices8,9. However, the size attained by the individual fish may also vary because of variation in food supply, and these in turn may reflect variation in climatic parameters and in the supply of nutrient or in the degree of competition for food. Environment deterioration, for example, may reduce growth rates and will cause a decrease in the average age of the fish. The condition factor and the relative condition factor10 are the quantitative parameters of the well being state of the fish and reflect recent feeding condition of the fish. It is based on the hypothesis that heavier fish of a given length are in better condition11. This factor varies according to influences of physiological factors, fluctuating according to different stages of the development. Condition factor has been used as an index of growth and feeding intensity12. Condition factor decrease with increase in length 12,13 and also influences the reproductive cycle in fish14. The objective here is to determine the length-weight relationships and condition factor for direct use in fishery assessment and for future comparisons between populations of the same species at different locations. To provide quantitative information on the biology of marine fish species trawl from Nigeria coastal water.

Keywords: condition factor, growth pattern, marine fish species, Nigerian Coastal water

Procedia PDF Downloads 405
256 The Study of the Correlation of Future-Oriented Thinking and Retirement Planning: The Analysis of Two Professions

Authors: Ya-Hui Lee, Ching-Yi Lu, Chien Hung, Hsieh

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The purpose of this study is to explore the difference between state-owned-enterprise employees and the civil servants regarding their future-oriented thinking and retirement planning. The researchers investigated 687 middle age and older adults (345 state-owned-enterprise employees and 342 civil servants) through survey research, to understand the relevance between and the prediction of their future-oriented thinking and retirement planning. The findings of this study are: 1.There are significant differences between these two professions regarding future-oriented thinking but not retirement planning. The results of the future-oriented thinking of civil servants are overall higher than that of the state-owned-enterprise employees. 2. There are significant differences both in the aspects of future-oriented thinking and retirement planning among civil servants of different ages. The future-oriented thinking and retirement planning of ages 55 and above are more significant than those of ages 45 or under. For the state-owned-enterprise employees, however, there is no significance found in their future-oriented thinking, but in their retirement planning. Moreover, retirement planning is higher at ages 55 or above than at other ages. 3. With regard to education, there is no correlation to future-oriented thinking or retirement planning for civil servants. For state-owned-enterprise employees, however, their levels of education directly affect their future-oriented thinking. Those with a master degree or above have greater future-oriented thinking than those with other educational degrees. As for retirement planning, there is no correlation. 4. Self-assessment of economic status significantly affects the future-oriented thinking and retirement planning of both civil servants and state-owned-enterprise employees. Those who assess themselves more affluently are more inclined to future-oriented thinking and retirement planning. 5. For civil servants, there are significant differences between their monthly income and retirement planning, but none with future-oriented thinking. As for state-owned-enterprise employees, there are significant differences between their monthly income and retirement planning as well as future-oriented thinking. State-owned-enterprise employees who have significantly higher monthly incomes (1,960 euros and above) have more significant future-oriented thinking and retirement planning than those with lower monthly incomes (1,469 euros and below). 6. The middle age and older adults of both professions have positive correlations with future-oriented thinking and retirement planning. Through stepwise multiple regression analysis, the results indicate that future-oriented thinking and retirement planning have positive predictions. The authors then present the findings of this study for state-owned-enterprises, public authorities, and older adult educational program designs in Taiwan as references.

Keywords: state-owned-enterprise employees, civil servants, future-oriented thinking, retirement planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 354
255 Physics-Informed Neural Network for Predicting Strain Demand in Inelastic Pipes under Ground Movement with Geometric and Soil Resistance Nonlinearities

Authors: Pouya Taraghi, Yong Li, Nader Yoosef-Ghodsi, Muntaseer Kainat, Samer Adeeb

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Buried pipelines play a crucial role in the transportation of energy products such as oil, gas, and various chemical fluids, ensuring their efficient and safe distribution. However, these pipelines are often susceptible to ground movements caused by geohazards like landslides, fault movements, lateral spreading, and more. Such ground movements can lead to strain-induced failures in pipes, resulting in leaks or explosions, leading to fires, financial losses, environmental contamination, and even loss of human life. Therefore, it is essential to study how buried pipelines respond when traversing geohazard-prone areas to assess the potential impact of ground movement on pipeline design. As such, this study introduces an approach called the Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) to predict the strain demand in inelastic pipes subjected to permanent ground displacement (PGD). This method uses a deep learning framework that does not require training data and makes it feasible to consider more realistic assumptions regarding existing nonlinearities. It leverages the underlying physics described by differential equations to approximate the solution. The study analyzes various scenarios involving different geohazard types, PGD values, and crossing angles, comparing the predictions with results obtained from finite element methods. The findings demonstrate a good agreement between the results of the proposed method and the finite element method, highlighting its potential as a simulation-free, data-free, and meshless alternative. This study paves the way for further advancements, such as the simulation-free reliability assessment of pipes subjected to PGD, as part of ongoing research that leverages the proposed method.

Keywords: strain demand, inelastic pipe, permanent ground displacement, machine learning, physics-informed neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 50
254 Environmental Conditions Simulation Device for Evaluating Fungal Growth on Wooden Surfaces

Authors: Riccardo Cacciotti, Jiri Frankl, Benjamin Wolf, Michael Machacek

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Moisture fluctuations govern the occurrence of fungi-related problems in buildings, which may impose significant health risks for users and even lead to structural failures. Several numerical engineering models attempt to capture the complexity of mold growth on building materials. From real life observations, in cases with suppressed daily variations of boundary conditions, e.g. in crawlspaces, mold growth model predictions well correspond with the observed mold growth. On the other hand, in cases with substantial diurnal variations of boundary conditions, e.g. in the ventilated cavity of a cold flat roof, mold growth predicted by the models is significantly overestimated. This study, founded by the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic (GAČR 20-12941S), aims at gaining a better understanding of mold growth behavior on solid wood, under varying boundary conditions. In particular, the experimental investigation focuses on the response of mold to changing conditions in the boundary layer and its influence on heat and moisture transfer across the surface. The main results include the design and construction at the facilities of ITAM (Prague, Czech Republic) of an innovative device allowing for the simulation of changing environmental conditions in buildings. It consists of a square section closed circuit with rough dimensions 200 × 180 cm and cross section roughly 30 × 30 cm. The circuit is thermally insulated and equipped with an electric fan to control air flow inside the tunnel, a heat and humidity exchange unit to control the internal RH and variations in temperature. Several measuring points, including an anemometer, temperature and humidity sensor, a loading cell in the test section for recording mass changes, are provided to monitor the variations of parameters during the experiments. The research is ongoing and it is expected to provide the final results of the experimental investigation at the end of 2022.

Keywords: moisture, mold growth, testing, wood

Procedia PDF Downloads 114
253 The Determinants of Enterprise Risk Management: Literature Review, and Future Research

Authors: Sylvester S. Horvey, Jones Mensah

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The growing complexities and dynamics in the business environment have led to a new approach to risk management, known as enterprise risk management (ERM). ERM is a system and an approach to managing the risks of an organization in an integrated manner to achieve the corporate goals and strategic objectives. Regardless of the diversities in the business environment, ERM has become an essential factor in managing individual and business risks because ERM is believed to enhance shareholder value and firm growth. Despite the growing number of literature on ERM, the question about what factors drives ERM remains limited. This study provides a comprehensive literature review of the main factors that contribute to ERM implementation. Google Scholar was the leading search engine used to identify empirical literature, and the review spanned between 2000 and 2020. Articles published in Scimago journal ranking and Scopus were examined. Thirteen firm characteristics and sixteen articles were considered for the empirical review. Most empirical studies agreed that firm size, institutional ownership, industry type, auditor type, industrial diversification, earnings volatility, stock price volatility, and internal auditor had a positive relationship with ERM adoption, whereas firm size, institutional ownership, auditor type, and type of industry were mostly seen be statistically significant. Other factors such as financial leverage, profitability, asset opacity, international diversification, and firm complexity revealed an inconclusive result. The growing literature on ERM is not without limitations; hence, this study suggests that further research should examine ERM determinants within a new geographical context while considering a new and robust way of measuring ERM rather than relying on a simple proxy (dummy) for ERM measurement. Other firm characteristics such as organizational culture and context, corporate scandals and losses, and governance could be considered determinants of ERM adoption.

Keywords: enterprise risk management, determinants, ERM adoption, literature review

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
252 Accountability Mechanisms of Leaders and Its Impact on Performance and Value Creation: Comparative Analysis (France, Germany, United Kingdom)

Authors: Bahram Soltani, Louai Ghazieh

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The responsibility has a big importance further to the financial crisis and the various pressures, which companies face their duties. The main objective of this study is to explain the variation of mechanisms of the responsibility of the manager in the company among the advanced capitalist economies. Then we study the impact of these mechanisms on the performance and the value creation in European companies. To reach our goal, we established a final sample composed on average of 284 French, British and German companies quoted in stock exchanges with 2272 annual reports examined during the period from 2005 to 2012. We examined at first the link of causalities between the determining-mechanisms bound to the company such as the characteristics of the board of directors, the composition of the shareholding and the ethics of the company on one side and the profitability of the company on the other side. The results show that the smooth running of the board of directors and its specialist committees are very important determinants of the responsibility of the managers who impact positively the performance and the value creation in the company. Furthermore, our results confirm that the presence of a solid ethical environment within the company will be effective to increase the probability that the managers realize ethical choices in the organizational decision-making. At the second time, we studied the impact of the determining mechanisms bound to the function and to the profile of manager to know its relational links, his remuneration, his training, his age and his experiences about the performance and the value creation in the company. Our results highlight the existence of a negative relation between the relational links of the manager, his very high remuneration and the general profitability of the company. This study is a contribution to the literature on the determining mechanisms of company director's responsibility (Accountability). It establishes an empirical and comparative analysis between three influential countries of Europe, to know France, the United Kingdom and Germany.

Keywords: leaders, company’s performance, accountability mechanisms, corporate governance, value creation of firm, financial crisis

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251 Study on Hybridization between Clarias gariepinus (Burchell 1822) and Heterobranchus bidorsalis (Geoffroy Saint Hilaire, 1809)

Authors: Wasiu Olaniyi, Ofelia Omitogun

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Hybridization has been of importance in both research and commercial aquaculture due to its benefits such as increased growth rate, sex ratio manipulation, production of sterile species and many other desirable economic traits. In this study, we successfully produced hybrids between crosses of Clariid catfish species of Clarias gariepinus and Heterobranchus bidorsalis for stock improvement. Milt and eggs from parent broodstock of C. gariepinus and H. bidorsalis were collected for both intrageneric and interspecific hybridization, viz: same parent species crosses (♀C. gariepinus ×♂C. gariepinus; ♀H. bidorsalis × ♂H. bidorsalis) and inter-specific crosses (♀H. bidorsalis × ♂C. gariepinus; ♀C. gariepinus × ♂H. bidorsalis). These crosses were made in triplicates whereby the data on latency period, fertility, hatchability, deformity, and survival were recorded. A phenotypic form of distinction was registered in the hybrid ♀C. gariepinus × ♂H. bidorsalis that was smooth-greyed while its reciprocal cross was marpatic. The parent species C. gariepinus had greyed-marpatic color while the H. bidorsalis was yellowish-brown. Fertility data revealed the significant difference (p < 0.05) between the hybrid cross ♀C. gariepinus × ♂H. bidorsalis (88.00 ± 1.00%) compared to its reciprocal ♀H. bidorsalis × ♂C. gariepinus (71.67 ± 10.41%) which further had carried over effects to hatchability. The reciprocal ♀H. bidorsalis × ♂C. gariepinus recorded the highest deformity (11.67 ± 3.06%) that was significantly different (p < 0.05) from the rest of the crosses. Also, an outcome of equal sex ratio in the hybrids compared with the two parent species was shown. Specific growth rate (SGR) data revealed highest significant difference (p < 0.05) in the hybrid ♀C. gariepinus × ♂H. bidorsalis (2.64 ± 0.09%), followed by the cross of ♀C. gariepinus × ♂ C. gariepinus (1.91 ± 0.02%) while there were no significant differences (p > 0.05) between the reciprocal hybrid ♀H. bidorsalis × ♂C. gariepinus (2.20 ± 0.57%) and ♀H. bidorsalis × ♂H. bidorsalis (2.19 ± 0.19%). The SGR analysis proved that the crosses ♀C. gariepinus × ♂C. gariepinus had slow growth performance compared to its hybrid ♀C. gariepinus × ♂H. bidorsalis. Critical evaluation based on survival and specific growth performance showed the superiority of the hybrid ♀C. gariepinus × ♂H. bidorsalis. The least survival in reciprocal hybrid ♀H. bidorsalis × ♂C. gariepinus (27.33%) can be explained by significant deformity (11.67%) recorded due to maternal effects. Hence, the survival of hybrid ♀C. gariepinus × ♂H. bidorsalis was better.

Keywords: aquaculture, hybridization, Clarias gariepinus, Heterobranchus bidorsalis

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250 The Effect of Bilingualism on Prospective Memory

Authors: Aslı Yörük, Mevla Yahya, Banu Tavat

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It is well established that bilinguals outperform monolinguals on executive function tasks. However, the effects of bilingualism on prospective memory (PM), which also requires executive functions, have not been investigated vastly. This study aimed to compare bi and monolingual participants' PM performance in focal and non-focal PM tasks. Considering that bilinguals have greater executive function abilities than monolinguals, we predict that bilinguals’ PM performance would be higher than monolinguals on the non-focal PM task, which requires controlled monitoring processes. To investigate these predictions, we administered the focal and non-focal PM task and measured the PM and ongoing task performance. Forty-eight Turkish-English bilinguals residing in North Macedonia and forty-eight Turkish monolinguals living in Turkey between the ages of 18-30 participated in the study. They were instructed to remember responding to rarely appearing PM cues while engaged in an ongoing task, i.e., spatial working memory task. The focality of the task was manipulated by giving different instructions for PM cues. In the focal PM task, participants were asked to remember to press an enter key whenever a particular target stimulus appeared in the working memory task; in the non-focal PM task, instead of responding to a specific target shape, participants were asked to remember to press the enter key whenever the background color of the working memory trials changes to a specific color (yellow). To analyze data, we performed a 2 × 2 mixed factorial ANOVA with the task (focal versus non-focal) as a within-subject variable and language group (bilinguals versus monolinguals) as a between-subject variable. The results showed no direct evidence for a bilingual advantage in PM. That is, the group’s performance did not differ in PM accuracy and ongoing task accuracy. However, bilinguals were overall faster in the ongoing task, yet this was not specific to PM cue’s focality. Moreover, the results showed a reversed effect of PM cue's focality on the ongoing task performance. That is, both bi and monolinguals showed enhanced performance in the non-focal PM cue task. These findings raise skepticism about the literature's prevalent findings and theoretical explanations. Future studies should investigate possible alternative explanations.

Keywords: bilingualism, executive functions, focality, prospective memory

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249 Comparison with Mechanical Behaviors of Mastication in Teeth Movement Cases

Authors: Jae-Yong Park, Yeo-Kyeong Lee, Hee-Sun Kim

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Purpose: This study aims at investigating the mechanical behaviors of mastication, according to various teeth movement. There are three masticatory cases which are general case and 2 cases of teeth movement. General case includes the common arrange of all teeth and 2 cases of teeth movement are that one is the half movement location case of molar teeth in no. 14 tooth seat after extraction of no. 14 tooth and the other is no. 14 tooth seat location case of molar teeth after extraction in the same case before. Materials and Methods: In order to analyze these cases, 3 dimensional finite element (FE) model of the skull were generated based on computed tomography images, 964 dicom files of 38 year old male having normal occlusion status. An FE model in general occlusal case was used to develop CAE procedure. This procedure was applied to FE models in other occlusal cases. The displacement controls according to loading condition were applied effectively to simulate occlusal behaviors in all cases. From the FE analyses, von Mises stress distribution of skull and teeth was observed. The von Mises stress, effective stress, had been widely used to determine the absolute stress value, regardless of stress direction and yield characteristics of materials. Results: High stress was distributed over the periodontal area of mandible under molar teeth when the mandible was transmitted to the coronal-apical direction in the general occlusal case. According to the stress propagation from teeth to cranium, stress distribution decreased as the distribution propagated from molar teeth to infratemporal crest of the greater wing of the sphenoid bone and lateral pterygoid plate in general case. In 2 cases of teeth movement, there were observed that high stresses were distributed over the periodontal area of mandible under teeth where they are located under the moved molar teeth in cranium. Conclusion: The predictions of the mechanical behaviors of general case and 2 cases of teeth movement during the masticatory process were investigated including qualitative validation. The displacement controls as the loading condition were applied effectively to simulate occlusal behaviors in 2 cases of teeth movement of molar teeth.

Keywords: cranium, finite element analysis, mandible, masticatory action, occlusal force

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248 An Invasive Lessepsian Species, Golden-Banded Goatfish, Upeneus Moluccensis Population from Iskenderun Bay, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, Türkiye, With Some Biological Notes: The Effects of Climate Differences and Opening of Suez Canal

Authors: Hatice Torcu Koc, Zeliha Erdogan

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This study presented the investigation of the population structure of Upeneus moluccensis in order to provide further knowledge and to compare the data with the studies before and thus help in the management of the population in the İskenderun Bay. For this purpose, a total of 370 golden-banded goatfish were caught by a commercial vessel monthly at a depth of 50-60 m. from İskenderun Bay in the years 2016-2018. Von Bertalanffy growth equation,length-weight relationships, sex ratio, age, condition, and gonado and hepato-somatic index values of U.peneus moluccensis specimens were determined. For this, the lengths and weights were measured using a dial caliper of 0.05 mm and a sensitive balance. Total lengths were 7.2–17.5 cm in females and 7.0–17.9 cm in males, while total weight ranges for females and males were 3.91-64.26 g and 3.69-60.95 g., respectively. Length-weight relationship for all individuals was calculated as W=0.004*L³ ³⁸, R²=0.85. Growth parameter was determined as L∞= 20.75 cm, k=0.33, t₀= - 0.56. The age readings were done by using the Bhattacharya method. The population was composed of 3 ages (1-3). The sex ratio was found as 1:1.42, corresponding to 41.4% males and 58.6% females, in favor of females (p<0.05). Values of the average condition and hepatosomatic index were found to be shown a similar pattern for males (1.088, 1.104) and females (1.124, 1.177), respectively. According to GSI values, the spawning period started in March and increased to April, May, and September. It was estimated that total (Z) mortality, natural (M) mortality, and fishing (F) mortality rates were estimated as Z=0.94 year-¹, M=0.033 year-¹, and F=0.63 year-¹, respectively. As the exploitation rate was estimated to be E=0.67, it can be shown that the golden-banded goatfish stock was influenced by overfishing. The findings of this study are very important to point out the population of U. moluccensis, which penetrated into the eastern Mediterranean Sea of Türkiye due to global heating and the construction of the Suez Canal and to be basic data for the next fisheries investigations.

Keywords: biology, U. moluccensis, invasive, lessepsian, İskenderun Bay

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247 3-D Strain Imaging of Nanostructures Synthesized via CVD

Authors: Sohini Manna, Jong Woo Kim, Oleg Shpyrko, Eric E. Fullerton

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CVD techniques have emerged as a promising approach in the formation of a broad range of nanostructured materials. The realization of many practical applications will require efficient and economical synthesis techniques that preferably avoid the need for templates or costly single-crystal substrates and also afford process adaptability. Towards this end, we have developed a single-step route for the reduction-type synthesis of nanostructured Ni materials using a thermal CVD method. By tuning the CVD growth parameters, we can synthesize morphologically dissimilar nanostructures including single-crystal cubes and Au nanostructures which form atop untreated amorphous SiO2||Si substrates. An understanding of the new properties that emerge in these nanostructures materials and their relationship to function will lead to for a broad range of magnetostrictive devices as well as other catalysis, fuel cell, sensor, and battery applications based on high-surface-area transition-metal nanostructures. We use coherent X-ray diffraction imaging technique to obtain 3-D image and strain maps of individual nanocrystals. Coherent x-ray diffractive imaging (CXDI) is a technique that provides the overall shape of a nanostructure and the lattice distortion based on the combination of highly brilliant coherent x-ray sources and phase retrieval algorithm. We observe a fine interplay of reduction of surface energy vs internal stress, which plays an important role in the morphology of nano-crystals. The strain distribution is influenced by the metal-substrate interface and metal-air interface, which arise due to differences in their thermal expansion. We find the lattice strain at the surface of the octahedral gold nanocrystal agrees well with the predictions of the Young-Laplace equation quantitatively, but exhibits a discrepancy near the nanocrystal-substrate interface resulting from the interface. The strain in the bottom side of the Ni nanocube, which is contacted on the substrate surface is compressive. This is caused by dissimilar thermal expansion coefficients between Ni nanocube and Si substrate. Research at UCSD support by NSF DMR Award # 1411335.

Keywords: CVD, nanostructures, strain, CXRD

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246 The Curse of Oil: Unpacking the Challenges to Food Security in the Nigeria's Niger Delta

Authors: Abosede Omowumi Babatunde

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While the Niger Delta region satisfies the global thirst for oil, the inhabitants have not been adequately compensated for the use of their ancestral land. Besides, the ruthless exploitation and destruction of the natural environment upon which the inhabitants of the Niger Delta depend for their livelihood and sustenance by the activities of oil multinationals, pose major threats to food security in the region and by implication, Nigeria in general, Africa, and the world, given the present global emphasis on food security. This paper examines the effect of oil exploitation on household food security, identify key gaps in measures put in place to address the changes to livelihoods and food security and explore what should be done to improve the local people access to sufficient, safe and culturally acceptable food in the Niger Delta. Data is derived through interviews with key informants and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) conducted with respondents in the local communities in the Niger Delta states of Delta, Bayelsa and Rivers as well as relevant extant studies. The threat to food security is one important aspect of the human security challenges in the Niger Delta which has received limited scholarly attention. In addition, successive Nigerian governments have not meaningfully addressed the negative impacts of oil-induced environmental degradation on traditional livelihoods given the significant linkages between environmental sustainability, livelihood security, and food security. The destructive impact of oil pollution on the farmlands, crops, economic trees, creeks, lakes, and fishing equipment is so devastating that the people can no longer engage in productive farming and fishing. Also important is the limited access to modern agricultural methods for fishing and subsistence farming as fishing and farming are done using mostly crude implements and traditional methods. It is imperative and urgent to take stock of the negative implications of the activities of oil multinationals for environmental and livelihood sustainability, and household food security in the Niger Delta.

Keywords: challenges, food security, Nigeria's Niger delta, oil

Procedia PDF Downloads 239
245 Carbonaceous Monolithic Multi-Channel Denuders as a Gas-Particle Partitioning Tool for the Occupational Sampling of Aerosols from Semi-Volatile Organic Compounds

Authors: Vesta Kohlmeier, George C. Dragan, Juergen Orasche, Juergen Schnelle-Kreis, Dietmar Breuer, Ralf Zimmermann

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Aerosols from hazardous semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC) may occur in workplace air and can simultaneously be found as particle and gas phase. For health risk assessment, it is necessary to collect particles and gases separately. This can be achieved by using a denuder for the gas phase collection, combined with a filter and an adsorber for particle collection. The study focused on the suitability of carbonaceous monolithic multi-channel denuders, so-called Novacarb™-Denuders (MastCarbon International Ltd., Guilford, UK), to achieve gas-particle separation. Particle transmission efficiency experiments were performed with polystyrene latex (PSL) particles (size range 0.51-3 µm), while the time dependent gas phase collection efficiency was analysed for polar and nonpolar SVOC (mass concentrations 7-10 mg/m3) over 2 h at 5 or 10 l/min. The experimental gas phase collection efficiency was also compared with theoretical predictions. For n-hexadecane (C16), the gas phase collection efficiency was max. 91 % for one denuder and max. 98 % for two denuders, while for diethylene glycol (DEG), a maximal gas phase collection efficiency of 93 % for one denuder and 97 % for two denuders was observed. At 5 l/min higher gas phase collection efficiencies were achieved than at 10 l/min. The deviations between the theoretical and experimental gas phase collection efficiencies were up to 5 % for C16 and 23 % for DEG. Since the theoretical efficiency depends on the geometric shape and length of the denuder, flow rate and diffusion coefficients of the tested substances, the obtained values define an upper limit which could be reached. Regarding the particle transmission through the denuders, the use of one denuder showed transmission efficiencies around 98 % for 1-3 µm particle diameters. The use of three denuders resulted in transmission efficiencies from 93-97 % for the same particle sizes. In summary, NovaCarb™-Denuders are well applicable for sampling aerosols of polar/nonpolar substances with particle diameters ≤3 µm and flow rates of 5 l/min or lower. These properties and their compact size make them suitable for use in personal aerosol samplers. This work is supported by the German Social Accident Insurance (DGUV), research contract FP371.

Keywords: gas phase collection efficiency, particle transmission, personal aerosol sampler, SVOC

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244 Predicting Returns Volatilities and Correlations of Stock Indices Using Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive Range and Return Models

Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

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This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

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243 A Dual-Mode Infinite Horizon Predictive Control Algorithm for Load Tracking in PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor

Authors: Mohd Sabri Minhat, Nurul Adilla Mohd Subha

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The PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP), Malaysia reached its first criticality on June 28, 1982, with power capacity 1MW thermal. The Feedback Control Algorithm (FCA) which is conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controller, was used for present power control method to control fission process in RTP. It is important to ensure the core power always stable and follows load tracking within acceptable steady-state error and minimum settling time to reach steady-state power. At this time, the system could be considered not well-posed with power tracking performance. However, there is still potential to improve current performance by developing next generation of a novel design nuclear core power control. In this paper, the dual-mode predictions which are proposed in modelling Optimal Model Predictive Control (OMPC), is presented in a state-space model to control the core power. The model for core power control was based on mathematical models of the reactor core, OMPC, and control rods selection algorithm. The mathematical models of the reactor core were based on neutronic models, thermal hydraulic models, and reactivity models. The dual-mode prediction in OMPC for transient and terminal modes was based on the implementation of a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) in designing the core power control. The combination of dual-mode prediction and Lyapunov which deal with summations in cost function over an infinite horizon is intended to eliminate some of the fundamental weaknesses related to MPC. This paper shows the behaviour of OMPC to deal with tracking, regulation problem, disturbance rejection and caters for parameter uncertainty. The comparison of both tracking and regulating performance is analysed between the conventional controller and OMPC by numerical simulations. In conclusion, the proposed OMPC has shown significant performance in load tracking and regulating core power for nuclear reactor with guarantee stabilising in the closed-loop.

Keywords: core power control, dual-mode prediction, load tracking, optimal model predictive control

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242 A Survey to Determine the Incidence of Piglets' Mortality in Outdoor Farms in New Zealand

Authors: Patrick C. H. Morel, Ian W. Barugh, Kirsty L. Chidgey

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The aim of this study was to quantify the level of piglet deaths in outdoor farrowing systems in New Zealand. A total of 14 farms were visited, the farmers interviewed, and data collected. A total of 10,154 sows were kept on those farms representing an estimated 33% of the NZ sow herd or 80% of the outdoor sow herd in 2016. Data from 25,911 litters was available for the different analyses. The characteristics and reproductive performance for the years 2015-2016 from the 14 farms surveyed in this study were analysed, and the following results were obtained. The average percentage of stillbirths was 7.1% ranging between 3.5 and 10.7%, and the average pre-weaning live-born mortality was 16.7% ranging between 3.7% and 23.6%. The majority of piglet deaths (89%) occurred during the first week after birth, with 81% of deaths occurring up to day three. The number of piglets born alive was 12.3 (8.0 to 14.0), and average number of piglets weaned per sow per year was 22.4, range 10.5-27.3. The average stocking rate per ha (number of sows and mated gilts) was 15.3 and ranged from 2.8 to 28.6. The sow to boar ratio average was 20.9:1 and the range was 7.1: 1 to 63:1. The sow replacement rate ranged between 37% and 78%. There was a large variation in the piglet live-born mortality both between months within a farm and between farms within a given month. The monthly recorded piglet mortality ranged between 7.7% and 31.5%, and there was no statistically significant difference between months on the number of piglets born, born alive, weaned or on pre-weaning piglet mortality. Twelve different types of hut/farrowing systems were used on the 14 farms. No difference in piglet mortality was observed between A-Frame, A-Frame Modified and for Box-shape huts. There was a positive relationship between the average number of piglets born per litter and the number of piglets born alive (r=0.975) or the number weaned per litter (r=0.845). Moreover, as the average number of piglets born-alive increases, both pre-weaning live-born mortality rate and the number of piglets weaned increased. An increase of 1 piglet in the number born alive corresponds to an increase of 2.9% in live-born mortality and an increase of 0.56 piglets weaned. Farmers reported that staff are the key to success with the key attributes being: good and reliable with attention to detail and skills with the stock.

Keywords: mortality, piglets, outdoor, pig farm

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241 Bioconversion of Kitchen Waste to Bio-Ethanol for Energy Security and Solid Waste Management

Authors: Sanjiv Kumar Soni, Chetna Janveja

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The approach of utilizing zero cost kitchen waste residues for growing suitable strains of fungi for the induction of a cocktail of hydrolytic enzymes and ethanol generation has been validated in the present study with the objective of developing an indigenous biorefinery for low cost bioethanol production with the generation of zero waste. Solid state fermentation has been carried out to evaluate the potential of various steam pretreated kitchen waste residues as substrates for the co-production of multiple carbohydrases including cellulases, hemicellulases, pectinase and amylases by a locally isolated strain of Aspergillus niger C-5. Of all the residues, potato peels induced the maximum yields of all the enzyme components corresponding to 64.0±1.92 IU of CMCase, 17.0±0.54 IU of FPase , 42.8±1.28 IU of β-glucosidase, 990.0±28.90 IU of xylanase, 53.2±2.12 IU of mannanase, 126.0±3.72 IU of pectinase, 31500.0±375.78 IU of α-amylase and 488.8±9.82 IU of glucoamylase/g dry substrate respectively. Saccharification of various kitchen refuse residues using inhouse produced crude enzyme cocktail resulted in the release of 610±10.56, 570±8.89, 435±6.54, 475±4.56, 445±4.27, 385±4.49, 370±6.89, 490±10.45 mg of total reducing sugars/g of dried potato peels, orange peels, pineapple peels, mausami peels, onion peels, banana stalks, pea pods and composite mixture respectively revealing carbohydrate conversion efficiencies in the range of 97.0-99.4%. After fermentation of released hexoses by Saccharomyces cerevisae, ethanol yields ranging from 80-262 mL/ kg of dry residues were obtained. The study has successfully evaluated the valorization of kitchen garbage, a highly biodegradable component in Municipal Solid Waste by using it as a substrate for the in-house co-production of multiple carbohydrases and employing the steam treated residues as a feed stock for bioethanol production. Such valorization of kitchen garbage may reduce the level of Municipal Solid Waste going into land-fills thus lowering the emissions of greenhouse gases. Moreover, the solid residue left after the bioconversion may be used as a biofertilizer for improving the fertility of the soils.

Keywords: kitchen waste, bioethanol, solid waste, bioconversion, waste management

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240 Modelling of Solidification in a Latent Thermal Energy Storage with a Finned Tube Bundle Heat Exchanger Unit

Authors: Remo Waser, Simon Maranda, Anastasia Stamatiou, Ludger J. Fischer, Joerg Worlitschek

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In latent heat storage, a phase change material (PCM) is used to store thermal energy. The heat transfer rate during solidification is limited and considered as a key challenge in the development of latent heat storages. Thus, finned heat exchangers (HEX) are often utilized to increase the heat transfer rate of the storage system. In this study, a new modeling approach to calculating the heat transfer rate in latent thermal energy storages with complex HEX geometries is presented. This model allows for an optimization of the HEX design in terms of costs and thermal performance of the system. Modeling solidification processes requires the calculation of time-dependent heat conduction with moving boundaries. Commonly used computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods enable the analysis of the heat transfer in complex HEX geometries. If applied to the entire storage, the drawback of this approach is the high computational effort due to small time steps and fine computational grids required for accurate solutions. An alternative to describe the process of solidification is the so-called temperature-based approach. In order to minimize the computational effort, a quasi-stationary assumption can be applied. This approach provides highly accurate predictions for tube heat exchangers. However, it shows unsatisfactory results for more complex geometries such as finned tube heat exchangers. The presented simulation model uses a temporal and spatial discretization of heat exchanger tube. The spatial discretization is based on the smallest possible symmetric segment of the HEX. The heat flow in each segment is calculated using finite volume method. Since the heat transfer fluid temperature can be derived using energy conservation equations, the boundary conditions at the inner tube wall is dynamically updated for each time step and segment. The model allows a prediction of the thermal performance of latent thermal energy storage systems using complex HEX geometries with considerably low computational effort.

Keywords: modelling of solidification, finned tube heat exchanger, latent thermal energy storage

Procedia PDF Downloads 257