Search results for: statistical modeling

Authors: Morteza Aien, Masoud Rashidinejad, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad

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As energetic and environmental issues are getting more and more attention all around the world, the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) mainly those harvesting renewable energies (REs) ascends with an unprecedented rate. This matter causes more uncertainties to appear in the power system context; ergo, the uncertainty analysis of the system performance is an obligation. The uncertainties of any system can be represented probabilistically or possibilistically. Since sufficient historical data about all the system variables is not available, therefore, they do not have a probability density function (PDF) and must be represented possibilistiacally. When some of system uncertain variables are probabilistic and some are possibilistic, neither the conventional pure probabilistic nor pure possibilistic methods can be implemented. Hence, a combined solution is appealed. The first of this two-paper series formulates a new possibilistic-probabilistic tool for the load flow uncertainty assessment. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. This possibilistic- probabilistic formulation is solved in the second companion paper in an uncertain load flow (ULF) study problem.

Keywords: probabilistic uncertainty modeling, possibilistic uncertainty modeling, uncertain load flow, wind turbine generator

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Authors: Phanindra Prasad Thummala, Umran Tezcan Un, Ahmet Ozan Celik

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Removal of CO₂ by MEA (monoethanolamine) in structured packing columns depends highly on the gas-liquid interfacial area and film thickness (liquid load). CFD (computational fluid dynamics) is used to find the interfacial area, film thickness and their impact on mass transfer in gas-liquid flow effectively in any column geometry. In general modeling approaches used in CFD derive mass transfer parameters from standard correlations based on penetration or surface renewal theories. In order to avoid the effect of assumptions involved in deriving the correlations and model the mass transfer based solely on fluid properties, state of art approaches like one fluid formulation is useful. In this work, the one fluid formulation was implemented and evaluated for modeling the physical mass transfer of CO₂ by N₂O analogy in OpenFOAM CFD software. N₂O analogy avoids the effect of chemical reactions on absorption and allows studying the amount of CO₂ physical mass transfer possible in a given geometry. The computational domain in the current study was a flat plate with gas and liquid flowing in the countercurrent direction. The effect of operating parameters such as flow rate, the concentration of MEA and angle of inclination on the physical mass transfer is studied in detail. Liquid side mass transfer coefficients obtained by simulations are compared to the correlations available in the literature and it was found that the one fluid formulation was effectively capturing the effects of interface surface instabilities on mass transfer coefficient with higher accuracy. The high mesh refinement near the interface region was found as a limiting reason for utilizing this approach on large-scale simulations. Overall, the one fluid formulation is found more promising for CFD studies involving the CO₂ mass transfer.

Keywords: one fluid formulation, CO₂ absorption, liquid mass transfer coefficient, OpenFOAM, N₂O analogy

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Authors: Altaf H. Khan, Frank Stenger, Mohammed A. Hussein, Reaz A. Chaudhuri, Sameera Asif

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This paper discusses a novel approach to approximate quadrature integrals that arise in the estimation of likelihood parameters for the generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) as well as Bayesian methodology also requires computation of multidimensional integrals with respect to the posterior distributions in which computation are not only tedious and cumbersome rather in some situations impossible to find solutions because of singularities, irregular domains, etc. An attempt has been made in this work to apply Sinc function based quadrature rules to approximate intractable integrals, as there are several advantages of using Sinc based methods, for example: order of convergence is exponential, works very well in the neighborhood of singularities, in general quite stable and provide high accurate and double precisions estimates. The Sinc function based approach seems to be utilized first time in statistical domain to our knowledge, and it's viability and future scopes have been discussed to apply in the estimation of parameters for GLMM models as well as some other statistical areas.

Keywords: generalized linear mixed model, likelihood parameters, qudarature, Sinc function

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Authors: Rania Ajmi, Faiza Allouche Khebour, Aude Nuscia Taibi, Sirine Essasi

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Urban green spaces (UGS) as an important contributor can be a significant part of sustainable development. A spatial method was employed to assess and map the spatial distribution of UGS in five districts in Sousse, Tunisia. Ecological management of UGS is an essential factor for the sustainable development of the city; hence the municipality of Sousse has decided to support the districts according to different green spaces characters. And to implement this policy, (1) a new GIS web application was developed, (2) then the implementation of the various green spaces was carried out, (3) a spatial mapping of UGS using Quantum GIS was realized, and (4) finally a data processing and statistical analysis with RStudio programming language was executed. The intersection of the results of the spatial and statistical analyzes highlighted the presence of an imbalance in terms of the spatial UGS distribution in the study area. The discontinuity between the coast and the city's green spaces was not designed in a spirit of network and connection, hence the lack of a greenway that connects these spaces to the city. Finally, this GIS support will be used to assess and monitor green spaces in the city of Sousse by decision-makers and will contribute to improve the well-being of the local population.

Keywords: distributions, GIS, green space, imbalance, spatial analysis

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Authors: A. Nuchitprasittichai, N. Lerdritsirikoon, T. Khamsing

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Simulation modeling can be used to solve real world problems. It provides an understanding of a complex system. To develop a simplified model of process simulation, a suitable experimental design is required to be able to capture surface characteristics. This paper presents the experimental design and algorithm used to model the process simulation for optimization problem. The CO₂ liquefaction based on external refrigeration with two refrigeration circuits was used as a simulation case study. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) was purposed to combine with existing Central Composite Design (CCD) samples to improve the performance of CCD in generating the second order model of the system. The second order model was then used as the objective function of the optimization problem. The results showed that adding LHS samples to CCD samples can help capture surface curvature characteristics. Suitable number of LHS sample points should be considered in order to get an accurate nonlinear model with minimum number of simulation experiments.

Keywords: central composite design, CO2 liquefaction, latin hypercube sampling, simulation-based optimization

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Authors: Hazel James P. Agngarayngay, Arnold R. Elepaño

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Mango is the third most important export fruit in the Philippines. Despite the expanding mango trade in world market, problems on postharvest losses caused by pests and diseases are still prevalent. Many disease control and pest disinfestation methods have been studied and adopted. Heat treatment is necessary to eliminate pests and diseases to be able to pass the quarantine requirements of importing countries. During heat treatments, temperature and time are critical because fruits can easily be damaged by over-exposure to heat. Modeling the process enables researchers and engineers to study the behaviour of temperature distribution within the fruit over time. Understanding physical processes through modeling and simulation also saves time and resources because of reduced experimentation. This research aimed to simulate the heat transfer mechanism and predict the temperature distribution in ‘Carabao' mangoes during hot water treatment (HWT) and extended hot water treatment (EHWT). The simulation was performed in ANSYS CFD Software, using ANSYS CFX Solver. The simulation process involved model creation, mesh generation, defining the physics of the model, solving the problem, and visualizing the results. Boundary conditions consisted of the convective heat transfer coefficient and a constant free stream temperature. The three-dimensional energy equation for transient conditions was numerically solved to obtain heat flux and transient temperature values. The solver utilized finite volume method of discretization. To validate the simulation, actual data were obtained through experiment. The goodness of fit was evaluated using mean temperature difference (MTD). Also, t-test was used to detect significant differences between the data sets. Results showed that the simulations were able to estimate temperatures accurately with MTD of 0.50 and 0.69 °C for the HWT and EHWT, respectively. This indicates good agreement between the simulated and actual temperature values. The data included in the analysis were taken at different locations of probe punctures within the fruit. Moreover, t-tests showed no significant differences between the two data sets. Maximum heat fluxes obtained at the beginning of the treatments were 394.15 and 262.77 J.s-1 for HWT and EHWT, respectively. These values decreased abruptly at the first 10 seconds and gradual decrease was observed thereafter. Data on heat flux is necessary in the design of heaters. If underestimated, the heating component of a certain machine will not be able to provide enough heat required by certain operations. Otherwise, over-estimation will result in wasting of energy and resources. This study demonstrated that the simulation was able to estimate temperatures accurately. Thus, it can be used to evaluate the influence of various treatment conditions on the temperature-time history in mangoes. When combined with information on insect mortality and quality degradation kinetics, it could predict the efficacy of a particular treatment and guide appropriate selection of treatment conditions. The effect of various parameters on heat transfer rates, such as the boundary and initial conditions as well as the thermal properties of the material, can be systematically studied without performing experiments. Furthermore, the use of ANSYS software in modeling and simulation can be explored in modeling various systems and processes.

Keywords: heat transfer, heat treatment, mango, modeling and simulation

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Authors: Anduela Lile

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The purpose of this cross sectional study was to investigate the effectiveness of teaching and learning Statistics from a student centered perspective in higher education institutions. Statistics education has emphasized the application of tangible and interesting examples in order to motivate students learning about statistical concepts. Participants in this study were 112 bachelor students enrolled in the ‘Applied Statistics’ course in Sports University of Tirana. Experimental group students received a student-centered teaching approach; Control group students received an instructor-centered teaching approach. This study found student-centered approach student group had statistically significantly higher assessments scores (52.1 ± 18.9) at the end of the evaluation compared to instructor-centered approach student group (61.8 ± 16.4), (t (108) = 2.848, p = 0.005). Results concluded that student-centered perspective can improve student positive attitude to statistical methods and to motivate project work. Therefore, findings of this study may be very useful to the higher education institutions to establish their learning strategies especially for courses related to Statistics.

Keywords: student-centered, instructor-centered, course assessment, learning outcomes, applied statistics

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Authors: Mounia El Hafyani, Khalid El Himdi

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Precipitation is one of the key variables in water resource planning. The importance of modeling wet and dry durations is a crucial pointer in engineering hydrology. The objective of this study is to model and analyze the distribution of wet and dry durations. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data from 1967 to 2017 of the Moroccan city of Kenitra’s station are used. Three models are implemented for the distribution of wet and dry durations, namely the first-order Markov chain, the second-order Markov chain, and the truncated negative binomial law. The adherence of the data to the proposed models is evaluated using Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. The Akaike information criterion is applied to assess the most effective model distribution. We go further and study the law of the number of wet and dry days among k consecutive days. The calculation of this law is done through an algorithm that we have implemented based on conditional laws. We complete our work by comparing the observed moments of the numbers of wet/dry days among k consecutive days to the calculated moment of the three estimated models. The study shows the effectiveness of our approach in modeling wet and dry durations of daily precipitation.

Keywords: Markov chain, rainfall, truncated negative binomial law, wet and dry durations

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Authors: Nahush Modak, Meena Pangarkar, Anand Pathak, Ankita Tamhane

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Background: Breast cancer is the prominent cause of cancer and mortality among women. This study was done to show the statistical analysis of a cohort of over 250 patients detected with breast cancer diagnosed by oncologists using Immunohistochemistry (IHC). IHC was performed by using ER; PR; HER2; Ki-67 antibodies. Materials and methods: Formalin fixed Paraffin embedded tissue samples were obtained by surgical manner and standard protocol was followed for fixation, grossing, tissue processing, embedding, cutting and IHC. The Ventana Benchmark XT machine was used for automated IHC of the samples. Antibodies used were supplied by F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. Statistical analysis was performed by using SPSS for windows. Statistical tests performed were chi-squared test and Correlation tests with p<.01. The raw data was collected and provided by National Cancer Insitute, Jamtha, India. Result: Luminal B was the most prevailing molecular subtype of Breast cancer at our institute. Chi squared test of homogeneity was performed to find equality in distribution and Luminal B was the most prevalent molecular subtype. The worse prognostic indicator for breast cancer depends upon expression of Ki-67 and her2 protein in cancerous cells. Our study was done at p <.01 and significant dependence was observed. There exists no dependence of age on molecular subtype of breast cancer. Similarly, age is an independent variable while considering Ki-67 expression. Chi square test performed on Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) statuses of patients and strong dependence was observed in percentage of Ki-67 expression and Her2 (+/-) character which shows that, value of Ki depends upon Her2 expression in cancerous cells (p<.01). Surprisingly, dependence was observed in case of Ki-67 and Pr, at p <.01. This shows that Progesterone receptor proteins (PR) are over-expressed when there is an elevation in expression of Ki-67 protein. Conclusion: We conclude from that Luminal B is the most prevalent molecular subtype at National Cancer Institute, Jamtha, India. There was found no significant correlation between age and Ki-67 expression in any molecular subtype. And no dependence or correlation exists between patients’ age and molecular subtype. We also found that, when the diagnosis is Luminal A, out of the cohort of 257 patients, no patient shows >14% Ki-67 value. Statistically, extremely significant values were observed for dependence of PR+Her2- and PR-Her2+ scores on Ki-67 expression. (p<.01). Her2 is an important prognostic factor in breast cancer. Chi squared test for Her2 and Ki-67 shows that the expression of Ki depends upon Her2 statuses. Moreover, Ki-67 cannot be used as a standalone prognostic factor for determining breast cancer.

Keywords: breast cancer molecular subtypes , correlation, immunohistochemistry, Ki-67 and HR, statistical analysis

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Authors: A. M. Naraghi, V. Gonzalez, M. O'Sullivan, C. G. Walker, M. Poshdar, F. Ying, M. Abdelmegid

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Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and Agent Based Simulation (ABS) are two simulation approaches that have been proposed to support decision-making in the construction industry. Despite the wide use of these simulation approaches in the construction field, their applications for production and material planning is still limited. This is largely due to the dynamic and complex nature of construction material supply chain systems. Moreover, managing the flow of construction material is not well integrated with site logistics in traditional construction planning methods. This paper presents a hybrid of DES and ABS to simulate on-site and off-site material supply processes. DES is applied to determine the best production scenarios with information of on-site production systems, while ABS is used to optimize the supply chain network. A case study of a construction piling project in New Zealand is presented illustrating the potential benefits of using the proposed hybrid simulation model in construction material flow planning. The hybrid model presented can be used to evaluate the impact of different decisions on construction supply chain management.

Keywords: construction supply-chain management, simulation modeling, decision-support tools, hybrid simulation

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Authors: Abdeghani Qadem

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Climate change is now an undeniable reality with increasing impacts on water systems worldwide, especially leading to severe drought episodes. The Southern Mediterranean region is particularly affected by this drought, which can have devastating consequences on water resources. Morocco, due to its geographical location in North Africa and the Southern Mediterranean, is especially vulnerable to these effects of climate change, particularly drought. In this context, this article focuses on the study of climate variability and drought characteristics in the Saiss Plateau region and its adjacent areas with the Middle Atlas, using specific statistical indices. The study begins by analyzing the annual precipitation variation, with a particular emphasis on data homogenization and gap filling using a regional vector. Then, the analysis delves into drought episodes in the region, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over a 12-month period. The central objective is to accurately assess significant drought changes between 1980 and 2015, based on data collected from nine meteorological stations located in the study area.

Keywords: climate variability, regional vector, drought, standardized precipitation index, Saiss Plateau, middle atlas

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Authors: Tabinda Sadiq, Tehmina Ashfaq Qazi, Hoor Shumail

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Recently, the advent of emerging technology has created an emerging generation of restaurant marketing. It explores the aspects that influence customers’ decision-making process in selecting a restaurant after reading food bloggers' reviews online. The motivation behind this research is to investigate the correlation between the credibility of the source and their attitude toward restaurant visits. The researcher collected the data by distributing a survey questionnaire through google forms by employing the Source credibility theory. Non- probability purposive sampling technique was used to collect data. The questionnaire used a predeveloped and validated scale by Ohanian to measure the relationship. Also, the researcher collected data from 250 respondents in order to investigate the influence of food bloggers on Gen Z's decision-making process. SPSS statistical version 26 was used for statistical testing and analyzing the data. The findings of the survey revealed that there is a moderate positive correlation between the variables. So, it can be analyzed that food bloggers do have an impact on Generation Z's decision making process.

Keywords: credibility, decision making, food bloggers, generation z, e-wom

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Authors: Shidvash Vakilipour, Mehdi Habibnia, Rouzbeh Riazi, Masoud Mohammadi, Mohammad H. Sabour

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The flow field passing through a highly loaded low pressure (LP) turbine cascade is numerically investigated at design and off-design conditions. The Field Operation And Manipulation (OpenFOAM) platform is used as the computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tool. Firstly, the influences of grid resolution on the results of k-ε, k-ω, and LES turbulence models are investigated and compared with those of experimental measurements. A numerical pressure under-shoot is appeared near the end of blade pressure surface which is sensitive to grid resolution and flow turbulence modeling. The LES model is able to resolve separation on a coarse and fine grid resolutions. Secondly, the off-design flow condition is modeled by negative and positive inflow incidence angles. The numerical experiments show that a separation bubble generated on blade pressure side is predicted by LES. The total pressure drop is also been calculated at incidence angle between -20◦ and +8◦. The minimum total pressure drop is obtained by k-ω and LES at the design point.

Keywords: low pressure turbine, off-design performance, openFOAM, turbulence modeling, flow separation

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Authors: Noor M. Abdulfattah, Ahmed M. Khalafallah, Nabil A. Kartam

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Despite the evident benefits of building information modeling (BIM) to the construction industry, it faces significant implementation challenges in the State of Kuwait. This study investigates the awareness of construction stakeholders of BIM implementation challenges, and identifies various solutions to overcome these challenges. Specifically, the main objectives of this study are to: (1) characterize the barriers that deter utilization of BIM, (2) examine the awareness of engineers, architects, and construction stakeholders of these barriers, and (3) identify practical solutions to facilitate BIM utilization. A questionnaire survey was designed to collect data on the aforementioned objectives from local companies and senior BIM experts. It was found that engineers are highly aware of BIM implementation barriers. In addition, it was concluded from the questionnaire that the biggest barrier is the lack of BIM training. Based on expert feedback, the study concluded with a number of recommendations on how to overcome the barriers of BIM utilization. This should prove useful to the construction industry stakeholders and can lead to significant changes to design and construction practices.

Keywords: building information modeling (BIM), construction, information technology, challenges

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Authors: Pawan Kumar Gupta, Sumana Ghosh

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Parkinson's Disease (PD) is a long-term neurodegenerative movement disorder of the central nervous system with vast symptoms related to the motor system. The common symptoms of PD are tremor, rigidity, bradykinesia/akinesia, and postural instability, but the clinical symptom includes other motor and non‐motor issues. The motor symptoms of the disease are consequence of death of the neurons in a region of the midbrain known as substantia nigra pars compacta, leading to decreased level of a neurotransmitter known as dopamine. The cause of this neuron death is not clearly known but involves formation of Lewy bodies, an abnormal aggregation or clumping of the protein alpha-synuclein in the neurons. Unfortunately, there is no cure for PD, and the management of this disease is challenging. Therefore, it is critical for a patient to be diagnosed at early stages. A limited choice of drugs is available to improve the symptoms, but those become less and less effective over time. Apart from that, with rapid growth in the field of science and technology, other methods such as multi-area brain stimulation are used to treat patients. In order to develop advanced techniques and to support drug development for treating PD patients, an accurate mathematical model is needed to explain the underlying relationship of dopamine secretion in the brain with the hand tremors. There has been a lot of effort in the past few decades on modeling PD tremors and treatment effects from a computational point of view. These models can effectively save time as well as the cost of drug development for the pharmaceutical industry and be helpful for selecting appropriate treatment mechanisms among all possible options. In this review paper, an effort is made to investigate studies on PD modeling and analysis and to highlight some of the key advances in the field over the past centuries with discussion on the current challenges.

Keywords: Parkinson's disease, deep brain stimulation, tremor, modeling

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Authors: Aline Woine, Moïra Mikolajczak, Virginie Dardier, Isabelle Roskam

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Background information: Becoming a parent is said to be the happiest event one can ever experience in one’s life. This popular (and almost absolute) truth–which no reasonable and decent human being would ever dare question on pain of being singled out as a bad parent–contrasts with the nuances that reality offers. Indeed, while many parents do thrive in their parenting role, some others falter and become progressively overwhelmed by their parenting role, ineluctably caught in a spiral of exhaustion. Parental burnout (henceforth PB) sets in when parental demands (stressors) exceed parental resources. While it is now generally acknowledged that PB affects the parent’s behavior in terms of neglect and violence toward their offspring, little is known about the impact that the syndrome might have on the children’s internalized (anxious and depressive symptoms, somatic complaints, etc.) and/or externalized (irritability, violence, aggressiveness, conduct disorder, oppositional disorder, etc.) behaviors. Furthermore, at the time of writing, to our best knowledge, no research has yet tested the reverse effect, namely, that of the child's internalized and/or externalized behaviors on the onset and/or maintenance of parental burnout symptoms. Goals and hypotheses: The present pioneering research proposes to fill an important gap in the existing literature related to PB by investigating the bidirectional effect between PB and the child’s internalized and/or externalized behaviors. Relying on a cross-lagged longitudinal study with three waves of data collection (4 months apart), our study tests a transactional model with bidirectional and recursive relations between observed variables and at the three waves, as well as autoregressive paths and cross-sectional correlations. Methods: As we write this, wave-two data are being collected via Qualtrics, and we expect a final sample of about 600 participants composed of French-speaking (snowball sample) and English-speaking (Prolific sample) parents. Structural equation modeling is employed using Stata version 17. In order to retain as much statistical power as possible, we use all available data and therefore apply the maximum likelihood with a missing value (mlmv) as the method of estimation to compute the parameter estimates. To limit (in so far is possible) the shared method variance bias in the evaluation of the child’s behavior, the study relies on a multi-informant evaluation approach. Expected results: We expect our three-wave longitudinal study to show that PB symptoms (measured at T1) raise the occurrence/intensity of the child’s externalized and/or internalized behaviors (measured at T2 and T3). We further expect the child’s occurrence/intensity of externalized and/or internalized behaviors (measured at T1) to augment the risk for PB (measured at T2 and T3). Conclusion: Should our hypotheses be confirmed, our results will make an important contribution to the understanding of both PB and children’s behavioral issues, thereby opening interesting theoretical and clinical avenues.

Keywords: exhaustion, structural equation modeling, cross-lagged longitudinal study, violence and neglect, child-parent relationship

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Authors: Rabab Allouzi, Amer Alkloub

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As the complex shaped buildings become a popular trend for architects, this paper is presented to investigate the performance of reinforced concrete flat plate-inclined column connection. The studies on the inclined column and flat plate connections are not sufficient in comparison to those on the conventional structures. The effect of column angle of inclination on the punching shear strength is found significant and studied herein. This paper presents a non-linear finite element based modeling approach to estimate behavior of RC flat plate inclined column connection. Results from simulations of RC flat plate-straight column connection show good agreement with experimental response of specimens tested by other researchers. The model is further used to study the response of inclined columns to punching at various ranges of inclination angles. The inclination angle can be included in the punching shear strength provisions provided by ACI 318-14 to account for the effect of column inclination.

Keywords: punching shear, non-linear finite element, inclined columns, reinforced concrete connection

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Authors: S. Lemoussu, J. C. Chaudemar, R. A. Vingerhoeds

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The aeronautics sector is currently living an unprecedented growth largely due to innovative projects. In several cases, such innovative developments are being carried out by Small and Medium sized-Enterprises (SMEs). For instance, in Europe, a handful of SMEs are leading projects like airships, large civil drones, or flying cars. These SMEs have all limited resources, must make strategic decisions, take considerable financial risks and in the same time must take into account the constraints of safety, cost, time and performance as any commercial organization in this industry. Moreover, today, no international regulations fully exist for the development and certification of this kind of projects. The absence of such a precise and sufficiently detailed regulatory framework requires a very close contact with regulatory instances. But, SMEs do not always have sufficient resources and internal knowledge to handle this complexity and to discuss these issues. This poses additional challenges for those SMEs that have system integration responsibilities and that must provide all the necessary means of compliance to demonstrate their ability to design, produce, and operate airships with the expected level of safety and reliability. The final objective of our research is thus to provide a methodological framework supporting SMEs in their development taking into account recent innovation and institutional rules of the sector. We aim to provide a contribution to the problematic by developing a specific Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach. Airspace regulation, aeronautics standards and international norms on systems engineering are taken on board to be formalized in a set of models. This paper presents the on-going research project combining Systems Engineering and Project Management process modeling and taking into account the metamodeling problematic.

Keywords: aeronautics, certification, process modeling, project management, SME, systems engineering

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Authors: Priti Saha, Biswajit Paul

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Rapid urbanization and industrialization has increased the pollution load in surface water bodies. However, these water bodies are major source of water for drinking, irrigation, industrial activities and fishery. Therefore, water quality assessment is paramount importance to evaluate its suitability for all these purposes. This study focus to evaluate the surface water quality of an industrial city in eastern India through integrating interdisciplinary techniques. The multi-purpose Water Quality Index (WQI) assess the suitability for drinking, irrigation as well as fishery of forty-eight sampling locations, where 8.33% have excellent water quality (WQI:0-25) for fishery and 10.42%, 20.83% and 45.83% have good quality (WQI:25-50), which represents its suitability for drinking irrigation and fishery respectively. However, the industrial water quality was assessed through Ryznar Stability Index (LSI), which affirmed that only 6.25% of sampling locations have neither corrosive nor scale forming properties (RSI: 6.2-6.8). Integration of these statistical analysis with geographical information system (GIS) helps in spatial assessment. It identifies of the regions where the water quality is suitable for its use in drinking, irrigation, fishery as well as industrial activities. This research demonstrates the effectiveness of statistical and GIS techniques for water quality assessment.

Keywords: surface water, water quality assessment, water quality index, spatial assessment

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Authors: Aminu Mubarak Sadis

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This study appraised the maintenance management practice in Federal University Dutse and Jigawa State Polytechnic Dutse, in Nigeria. The Physical Planning, Works and Maintenance Departments of the two Higher Institutions (Federal University Dutse and Jigawa State Polytechnic) are responsible for production and maintenance management of their physical assets. Over–enrollment problem has been a common feature in the higher institutions in Nigeria, Data were collected by the administered questionnaires and subsequent oral interview to authenticate the completed questionnaires. Random sampling techniques was used in selecting 150 respondents across the various institutions (Federal University Dutse and Jigawa State Polytechnic Dutse). Data collected was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) and t-test statistical techniques The conclusion was that maintenance management activities are yet to be given their appropriate attention on functions of the university and polytechnic which are crucial to improving teaching, learning and research. The unit responsible for maintenance and managing facilities should focus on their stated functions and effect changes were possible.

Keywords: appraisal, maintenance management, university, Polytechnic, practices

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Authors: Arash Gharibi

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Mankind has always used models to solve problems. Essentially, models are simplified versions of reality, whose need stems from having to deal with complexity; many processes or phenomena are too complex to be described completely. Thus a fundamental model requirement is that it contains the characteristic features that are essential in the context of the problem to be solved or described. Models are used in virtually every scientific domain to deal with various problems. During the recent decades, the number of models has increased exponentially. Publication of models as part of original research has traditionally been in in scientific periodicals, series, monographs, agency reports, national journals and laboratory reports. This makes it difficult for interested groups and communities to stay informed about the state-of-the-art. During the modeling process, many important decisions are made which impact the final form of the model. Without a record of these considerations, the final model remains ill-defined and open to varying interpretations. Unfortunately, the details of these considerations are often lost or in case there is any existing information about a model, it is likely to be written intuitively in different layouts and in different degrees of detail. In order to overcome these issues, different domains have attempted to implement their own approaches to preserve their models’ information in forms of model documentation. The most frequently cited model documentation approaches show that they are domain specific, not to applicable to the existing models and evolutionary flexibility and intrinsic corrections and improvements are not possible with the current approaches. These issues are all because of a lack of unified standards for model documentation. As a way forward, this research will propose a new standard for capturing and managing models’ information in a unified way so that interoperability and reusability of models become possible. This standard will also be evolutionary, meaning members of modeling realm could contribute to its ongoing developments and improvements. In this paper, the current 3 of the most common metamodels are reviewed and according to pros and cons of each, a new metamodel is proposed.

Keywords: metamodel, modeling, interoperability, reuse

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Authors: Mohammadreza Ashouri, Majid Bayatian

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Analysis of fire data is a way for the implementation of any plan to improve the level of safety in cities. Such an analysis is able to reveal signs of changes in a given period and can be used as a measure of safety. The information of about 66,341 fires (from 2002 to 2012) released by Tehran Safety Services and Fire-Fighting Organization and data on the population and the number of households provided by Tehran Municipality and the Statistical Yearbook of Iran were extracted. Using the data, the fire changes, the rate of injuries, and mortality rate were determined and analyzed. The rate of injuries and mortality rate of fires per one million population of Tehran were 59.58% and 86.12%, respectively. During the study period, the number of fires and fire stations increased by 104.38% and 102.63%, respectively. Most fires (9.21%) happened in the 4th District of Tehran. The results showed that the recorded fire data have not been systematically planned for fire prevention since one of the ways to reduce injuries caused by fires is to develop a systematic plan for necessary actions in emergency situations. To determine a reliable source for fire prevention, the stages, definitions of working processes and the cause and effect chains should be considered. Therefore, a comprehensive statistical system should be developed for reported and recorded fire data.

Keywords: fire statistics, fire analysis, accident prevention, Tehran

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Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

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Path analysis tests the relationship between variables through cause and effect. Before conducting further tests on path analysis, the assumption of linearity must be met. If the shape of the relationship is not linear and the shape of the curve is unknown, then use a nonparametric approach, one of which is a truncated spline. The purpose of this study is to estimate the function and get the best model on the nonparametric truncated spline path of linear, quadratic, and cubic orders with 1 and 2-knot points and determine the significance of the best function estimator in modeling farmer loyalty through the jackknife resampling method. This study uses secondary data through questionnaires to farmers in Sumbawa Regency who use SP-36 subsidized fertilizer products as many as 100 respondents. Based on the results of the analysis, it is known that the best-truncated spline nonparametric path model is the quadratic order of 2 knots with a coefficient of determination of 85.50%; the significance of the best-truncated spline nonparametric path estimator shows that all exogenous variables have a significant effect on endogenous variables.

Keywords: nonparametric path analysis, farmer loyalty, jackknife resampling, truncated spline

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Authors: Ahmed M. Noureldin, Khaled M. Naguib

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This experimental investigation tries to identify the root cause of the black sand issue in one of the man-made lakes in a well-known Hurghada resort. The lake is nourished by the underground wells' source, which continuously empties into the Red Sea. Chemical testing was done by looking at spots of stinky black sand beneath the sandy lake surface. The findings on samples taken from several locations (wells, lake bottom sand samples, and clean sand with exact specifications as bottom sand) indicated the existence of organic sulfur bacteria that are responsible for the phenomena of black sand. Approximately 39.139 mg/kg of sulfide in the form of hydrogen sulfide was present in the lake bottom sand, while 1.145 mg/kg, before usage, was in the bare sand. The study also involved modeling with the GPS-X program for cleaning bottom sand that uses hydro cyclones as a physical-mechanical treatment method. The modeling findings indicated a Total Organic Carbon (TOC) removal effectiveness of 0.65%. The research recommended using hydro cyclones to routinely mechanically clear the sand from lake bottoms.

Keywords: man-made lakes, organic sulfur bacteria, total organic carbon, hydro cyclone

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Authors: Reza Zakerinejad

Abstract:

Gully erosion is a serious problem that threading the sustainability of agricultural area and rangeland and water in a large part of Iran. This type of water erosion is the main source of sedimentation in many catchment areas in the north of Iran. Since in many national assessment approaches just qualitative models were applied the aim of this study is to predict the spatial distribution of gully erosion processes by means of detail terrain analysis and GIS -based logistic regression in the loess deposition in a case study in the Golestan Province. This study the DEM with 25 meter result ion from ASTER data has been used. The Landsat ETM data have been used to mapping of land use. The TreeNet model as a stochastic modeling was applied to prediction the susceptible area for gully erosion. In this model ROC we have set 20 % of data as learning and 20 % as learning data. Therefore, applying the GIS and satellite image analysis techniques has been used to derive the input information for these stochastic models. The result of this study showed a high accurate map of potential for gully erosion.

Keywords: TreeNet model, terrain analysis, Golestan Province, Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 535

Authors: Miguel Arlenzo Duran Sarmiento, Luis Alfonso Del Portillo Valdés, Carlos Borras Pinilla

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Brake energy regeneration systems have the capacity to transform part of the vehicle's kinetic energy during deceleration into useful energy. These systems can be implemented in hybrid vehicles, which can be electric or hydraulic in type, and contribute to reducing the energy required to propel the vehicle thanks to the accumulation of energy. This paper presents the modeling and simulation of a braking energy regeneration system applied in hydraulic hybrid vehicles configured in parallel, the modeling and simulation were performed in Simulink of Matlab, where a performance comparison of the regenerated torque as a function of vehicle load, the displacement of the hydraulic regeneration device and the vehicle speed profile. The speed profiles used in the simulation are standard profiles such as the NEDC and WLTP profiles. The vehicle loads range from 1500 kg to 12000 kg. The results show the comparison of the torque required by the vehicle, the torque regenerated by the system subjected to the different speed and load conditions.

Keywords: braking energy, energy regeneration, hybrid vehicles, kinetic energy, torque

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Abdul Sattar Jamali, Imdad Ali Memon, Maqsood Ahmed Memon

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Quality of production near to zero defects is an objective of every manufacturing and service organization. In order to maintain and improve the quality by reduction in defects, Statistical tools are being used by any organizations. There are many statistical tools are available to assess the quality. Keeping in view the importance of many statistical tools, traditional 7QC tools has been used in any manufacturing and automobile Industry. Therefore, the 7QC tools have been successfully applied at one of the Automobile Company Pakistan. Preliminary survey has been done for the implementation of 7QC tool in the assembly line of Automobile Industry. During preliminary survey two inspection points were decided to collect the data, which are Chassis line and trim line. The data for defects at Chassis line and trim line were collected for reduction in defects which ultimately improve productivity. Every 7QC tools has its benefits observed from the results. The flow charts developed for better understanding about inspection point for data collection. The check sheets developed for helps for defects data collection. Histogram represents the severity level of defects. Pareto charts show the cumulative effect of defects. The Cause and Effect diagrams developed for finding the root causes of each defects. Scatter diagram developed the relation of defects increasing or decreasing. The P-Control charts developed for showing out of control points beyond the limits for corrective actions. The successful implementation of 7QC tools at the inspection points at Automobile Industry concluded that the considerable amount of reduction on defects level, as in Chassis line from 132 defects to 13 defects. The total 90% defects were reduced in Chassis Line. In Trim line defects were reduced from 157 defects to 28 defects. The total 82% defects were reduced in Trim Line. As the Automobile Company exercised only few of the 7 QC tools, not fully getting the fruits by the application of 7 QC tools. Therefore, it is suggested the company may need to manage a mechanism for the application of 7 QC tools at every section.

Keywords: check sheet, cause and effect diagram, control chart, histogram

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: A. Rezaei, M. Huisman, W. Van Paepegem

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Atomic interactions in molecular systems are mainly studied by particle mechanics. Nevertheless, researches have also put on considerable effort to simulate them using continuum methods. In early 2000, simple equivalent finite element models have been developed to study the mechanical properties of carbon nanotubes and graphene in composite materials. Afterward, many researchers have employed similar structural simulation approaches to obtain mechanical properties of nanostructured materials, to simplify interface behavior of fiber-reinforced composites, and to simulate defects in carbon nanotubes or graphene sheets, etc. These structural approaches, however, are limited to small deformations due to complicated local rotational coordinates. This article proposes a method for the finite element simulation of molecular mechanics. For ease in addressing the approach, here it is called Structural Finite Element Molecular Modeling (SFEMM). SFEMM method improves the available structural approaches for large deformations, without using any rotational degrees of freedom. Moreover, the method simulates molecular conformation, which is a big advantage over the previous approaches. Technically, this method uses nonlinear multipoint constraints to simulate kinematics of the atomic multibody interactions. Only truss elements are employed, and the bond potentials are implemented through constitutive material models. Because the equilibrium bond- length, bond angles, and bond-torsion potential energies are intrinsic material parameters, the model is independent of initial strains or stresses. In this paper, the SFEMM method has been implemented in ABAQUS finite element software. The constraints and material behaviors are modeled through two Fortran subroutines. The method is verified for the bond-stretch, bond-angle and bond-torsion of carbon atoms. Furthermore, the capability of the method in the conformation simulation of molecular structures is demonstrated via a case study of a graphene sheet. Briefly, SFEMM builds up a framework that offers more flexible features over the conventional molecular finite element models, serving the structural relaxation modeling and large deformations without incorporating local rotational degrees of freedom. Potentially, the method is a big step towards comprehensive molecular modeling with finite element technique, and thereby concurrently coupling an atomistic domain to a solid continuum domain within a single finite element platform.

Keywords: finite element, large deformation, molecular mechanics, structural method

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: David Lall, Vikram Vishal, P. G. Ranjith

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Numerical modeling of gas production from hydrate-bearing reservoirs requires the solution of various thermal, hydrological, chemical, and mechanical phenomena in a coupled manner. Among the various reservoir properties that influence gas production estimates, the distribution of permeability across the domain is one of the most crucial parameters since it determines both heat transfer and mass transfer. The aspect of permeability in hydrate-bearing reservoirs is particularly complex compared to conventional reservoirs since it depends on the saturation of gas hydrates and hence, is dynamic during production. The dependence of permeability on hydrate saturation is mathematically represented using permeability-reduction models, which are specific to the expected morphology of hydrate accumulations (such as grain-coating or pore-filling hydrates). In this study, we demonstrate the impact of various permeability-reduction models, and consequently, different morphologies of hydrate deposits on the estimates of gas production using depressurization at the reservoir scale. We observe significant differences in produced water volumes and cumulative mass of produced gas between the models, thereby highlighting the uncertainty in production behavior arising from the ambiguity in the prevalent gas hydrate morphology.

Keywords: gas hydrate morphology, multi-scale modeling, THMC, fluid flow in porous media

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: Kehinde Peter Oyeduntan, Kayode Oshinubi

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Nigeria is referred as the ‘Giant of Africa’ due to high population, land mass and large economy. However, it still trails far behind many smaller economies in the continent in terms of maritime operations. As we have seen that the maritime industry is the spark plug for national growth, because it houses the most crucial infrastructure that generates wealth for a nation, it is worrisome that a nation with six seaports lag in maritime activities. In this research, we have studied how the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the maritime transport influences the Nigerian economy. To do this, we applied Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Polynomial Regression Model (PRM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to model the relationship between the nation’s Total GDP (TGDP) and the Maritime Transport GDP (MGDP) using a time series data of 20 years. The result showed that the MGDP is statistically significant to the Nigerian economy. Amongst the statistical tool applied, the PRM of order 4 describes the relationship better when compared to other methods. The recommendations presented in this study will guide policy makers and help improve the economy of Nigeria in terms of its GDP.

Keywords: maritime transport, economy, GDP, regression, port

Procedia PDF Downloads 154