Search results for: multi-factorial error modeling

Authors: Nabin Raj Chaulagain

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Most of the concrete bridges in Nepal constructed during 90's and before are made up of low strength ordinary concrete which might be one of the reasons for damage in higher magnitude earthquake. Those bridges were designed by the outdated bridge codes which might not account the large seismic loads. This research investigates the seismic vulnerability of the existing single column ordinary concrete bridge pier by finite element modeling, using the software Seismostruct. The existing bridge pier capacity has been assessed using nonlinear pushover analysis and performance is compared after retrofitting those pier models with CFRP. Furthermore, the seismic evaluation was made by conducting cyclic loading test at different drift percentage. The performance analysis of bridge pier by nonlinear pushover analysis is further validated by energy dissipation phenomenon measured from the hysteric loop for each model of ordinary concrete piers.

Keywords: finite element modeling, ordinary concrete bridge pier, performance analysis, retrofitting

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: Md. Qamruzzaman, Wei Jianguo

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Over the decade, it is observed that financial development, through financial innovation, not only accelerated development of efficient and effective financial system but also act as a catalyst in the economic development process. In this study, we try to explore insight about how financial innovation causes economic growth in Bangladesh by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for the period of 1990-2014. Test of Cointegration confirms the existence of a long-run association between financial innovation and economic growth. For investigating directional causality, we apply Granger causality test and estimation explore that long-run growth will be affected by capital flow from non-bank financial institutions and inflation in the economy but changes of growth rate do not have any impact on Capital flow in the economy and level of inflation in long-run. Whereas, growth and Market capitalization, as well as market capitalization and capital flow, confirm feedback hypothesis. Variance decomposition suggests that any innovation in the financial sector can cause GDP variation fluctuation in both long run and short run. Financial innovation promotes efficiency and cost in financial transactions in the financial system, can boost economic development process. The study proposed two policy recommendations for further development. First, innovation friendly financial policy should formulate to encourage adaption and diffusion of financial innovation in the financial system. Second, operation of financial market and capital market should be regulated with implementation of rules and regulation to create conducive environment.

Keywords: financial innovation, economic growth, GDP, financial institution, VECM

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Panagiotis Karadimos, Leonidas Anthopoulos

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Predicting the actual cost and duration in construction projects concern a continuous and existing problem for the construction sector. This paper addresses this problem with modern methods and data available from past public construction projects. 39 bridge projects, constructed in Greece, with a similar type of available data were examined. Considering each project’s attributes with the actual cost and the actual duration, correlation analysis is performed and the most appropriate predictive project variables are defined. Additionally, the most efficient subgroup of variables is selected with the use of the WEKA application, through its attribute selection function. The selected variables are used as input neurons for neural network models through correlation analysis. For constructing neural network models, the application FANN Tool is used. The optimum neural network model, for predicting the actual cost, produced a mean squared error with a value of 3.84886e-05 and it was based on the budgeted cost and the quantity of deck concrete. The optimum neural network model, for predicting the actual duration, produced a mean squared error with a value of 5.89463e-05 and it also was based on the budgeted cost and the amount of deck concrete.

Keywords: actual cost and duration, attribute selection, bridge construction, neural networks, predicting models, FANN TOOL, WEKA

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Deyu Zhou, Xiao Xue, Lizhen Cui

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With the increasing collaboration among various services and the growing complexity of user demands, there are more and more factors affecting the stable development of the cloud manufacturing service economic system (CMSE). This poses new challenges to the evolution analysis of the CMSE. Many researchers have modeled and analyzed the evolution process of CMSE from the perspectives of individual learning and internal factors influencing the system, but without considering other important characteristics of the system's individuals (such as heterogeneity, bounded rationality, etc.) and the impact of external environmental factors. Therefore, this paper proposes an integrated artificial social model for the cloud manufacturing service economic system, which considers both the characteristics of the system's individuals and the internal and external influencing factors of the system. The model consists of three parts: the Agent model, environment model, and rules model (Agent-Environment-Rules, AER): (1) the Agent model considers important features of the individuals, such as heterogeneity and bounded rationality, based on the adaptive behavior mechanisms of perception, action, and decision-making; (2) the environment model describes the activity space of the individuals (real or virtual environment); (3) the rules model, as the driving force of system evolution, describes the mechanism of the entire system's operation and evolution. Finally, this paper verifies the effectiveness of the AER model through computational and experimental results.

Keywords: cloud manufacturing service economic system (CMSE), AER model, artificial social modeling, integrated framework, computing experiment, agent-based modeling, social networks

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Authors: Noura Al Akkari, Aurélie Foucquier, Sylvain Lespinats

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Load monitoring is a management process for energy consumption towards energy savings and energy efficiency. Non Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is one method of load monitoring used for disaggregation purposes. NILM is a technique for identifying individual appliances based on the analysis of the whole residence data retrieved from the main power meter of the house. Our NILM framework starts with data acquisition, followed by data preprocessing, then event detection, feature extraction, then general appliance modeling and identification at the final stage. The event detection stage is a core component of NILM process since event detection techniques lead to the extraction of appliance features. Appliance features are required for the accurate identification of the household devices. In this research work, we aim at developing a new event detection methodology with accurate load disaggregation to extract appliance features. Time-domain features extracted are used for tuning general appliance models for appliance identification and classification steps. We use unsupervised algorithms such as Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). The proposed method relies on detecting areas of operation of each residential appliance based on the power demand. Then, detecting the time at which each selected appliance changes its states. In order to fit with practical existing smart meters capabilities, we work on low sampling data with a frequency of (1/60) Hz. The data is simulated on Load Profile Generator software (LPG), which was not previously taken into consideration for NILM purposes in the literature. LPG is a numerical software that uses behaviour simulation of people inside the house to generate residential energy consumption data. The proposed event detection method targets low consumption loads that are difficult to detect. Also, it facilitates the extraction of specific features used for general appliance modeling. In addition to this, the identification process includes unsupervised techniques such as DTW. To our best knowledge, there exist few unsupervised techniques employed with low sampling data in comparison to the many supervised techniques used for such cases. We extract a power interval at which falls the operation of the selected appliance along with a time vector for the values delimiting the state transitions of the appliance. After this, appliance signatures are formed from extracted power, geometrical and statistical features. Afterwards, those formed signatures are used to tune general model types for appliances identification using unsupervised algorithms. This method is evaluated using both simulated data on LPG and real-time Reference Energy Disaggregation Dataset (REDD). For that, we compute performance metrics using confusion matrix based metrics, considering accuracy, precision, recall and error-rate. The performance analysis of our methodology is then compared with other detection techniques previously used in the literature review, such as detection techniques based on statistical variations and abrupt changes (Variance Sliding Window and Cumulative Sum).

Keywords: general appliance model, non intrusive load monitoring, events detection, unsupervised techniques;

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Authors: H. R. Khodaei, M. Moradi, A. H. Tajik

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The type of foundation commonly used today for berthing dolphins is a set of tubular steel piles with large diameters, which are known as monopiles. The design of these monopiles is based on the theories related with laterally loaded piles. One of the most common methods to analyze and design the piles subjected to lateral loads is the p-y curves. In the present study, centrifuge tests are conducted in order to obtain the p-y curves. Series of tests were designed in order to investigate the scaling laws in the centrifuge for monotonic loading. Also, two important parameters, the embedded depth L of the pile in the soil and free length e of the pile, as well as their ratios were studied via five experimental tests. Finally, the p-y curves of API are presented to be compared with the curves obtained from the tests so that the differences could be demonstrated. The results show that the p-y curves proposed by API highly overestimate the lateral load bearing capacity. It suggests that these curves need correction and modification for each site as the soil conditions change.

Keywords: centrifuge modeling, monopile, lateral loading, p-y curves

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Authors: Jisun Lee, Jay Hyoun Kwon

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As an alternative way to compensate the INS (inertial navigation system) error in non-GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) environment, geophysical database referenced navigation is being studied. In this study, both gravity gradient and terrain data were combined to complement the weakness of sole geophysical data as well as to improve the stability of the positioning. The main process to compensate the INS error using geophysical database was constructed on the basis of the EKF (Extended Kalman Filter). In detail, two type of combination method, centralized and decentralized filter, were applied to check the pros and cons of its algorithm and to find more robust results. The performance of each navigation algorithm was evaluated based on the simulation by supposing that the aircraft flies with precise geophysical DB and sensors above nine different trajectories. Especially, the results were compared to the ones from sole geophysical database referenced navigation to check the improvement due to a combination of the heterogeneous geophysical database. It was found that the overall navigation performance was improved, but not all trajectories generated better navigation result by the combination of gravity gradient with terrain data. Also, it was found that the centralized filter generally showed more stable results. It is because that the way to allocate the weight for the decentralized filter could not be optimized due to the local inconsistency of geophysical data. In the future, switching of geophysical data or combining different navigation algorithm are necessary to obtain more robust navigation results.

Keywords: Extended Kalman Filter, geophysical database referenced navigation, gravity gradient, terrain

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Authors: Ramazan Kadiev, Arkadi Ponossov

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Semidiscrete systems contain both continuous and discrete components. This means that the dynamics is mostly continuous, but at certain instants, it is exposed to abrupt influences. Such systems naturally appear in applications, for example, in biological and ecological models as well as in the control theory. Therefore, the study of semidiscrete systems has recently attracted the attention of many specialists. Stochastic effects are an important part of any realistic approach to modeling. For example, stochasticity arises in the population dynamics, demographic and ecological due to a change in time of factors external to the system affecting the survival of the population. In control theory, random coefficients can simulate inaccuracies in measurements. It will be shown in the presentation how to incorporate such effects into semidiscrete systems. Stability analysis is an essential part of modeling real-world problems. In the presentation, it will be explained how sufficient conditions for the moment stability of solutions in terms of the coefficients for linear semidiscrete stochastic equations can be derived using non-Lyapunov technique.

Keywords: abrupt changes, exponential stability, regularization, stochastic noises

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Zahra Emami, H. Reza Mesgarzade, A. Morad Ghorbami, S. Reza Motahari

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This paper presents a method for calculation of parasitic elements consisting of leakage inductance and parasitic capacitance in a high voltage pulse transformer. The parasitic elements of pulse transformers significantly influence the resulting pulse shape of a power modulator system. In order to prevent the effects on the pulse shape before constructing the transformer an electrical model is needed. The technique procedures for computing these elements are based on finite element analysis. The finite element model of pulse transformer is created using software "Ansys Maxwell 3D". Finally, the transformer parasitic elements is calculated and compared with the value obtained from the actual test and pulse modulator is simulated and results is compared with actual test of pulse modulator. The results obtained are very similar with the test values.

Keywords: pulse transformer, simulation, modeling, Maxwell 3D, modulator

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: M. Shoukath Ali, Rajendra Prasad Singh

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Game Theory approaches and their application in improving the performance of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are discussed in this paper. The mathematical modeling and analysis of WSNs may have low success rate due to the complexity of topology, modeling, link quality, etc. However, Game Theory is a field, which can efficiently use to analyze the WSNs. Game Theory is related to applied mathematics that describes and analyzes interactive decision situations. Game theory has the ability to model independent, individual decision makers whose actions affect the surrounding decision makers. The outcome of complex interactions among rational entities can be predicted by a set of analytical tools. However, the rationality demands a stringent observance to a strategy based on measured of perceived results. Researchers are adopting game theory approaches to model and analyze leading wireless communication networking issues, which includes QoS, power control, resource sharing, etc.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, game theory, cooperative game theory, non-cooperative game theory

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Authors: C. Yin, B. Zhang, Y. Liu, J. Cai

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Airborne EM (AEM) is an effective geophysical exploration tool, especially suitable for ridged mountain areas. In these areas, topography will have serious effects on AEM system responses. However, until now little study has been reported on topographic effect on airborne EM systems. In this paper, an edge-based unstructured finite-element (FE) method is developed for 3D topographic modeling for both frequency and time-domain airborne EM systems. Starting from the frequency-domain Maxwell equations, a vector Helmholtz equation is derived to obtain a stable and accurate solution. Considering that the AEM transmitter and receiver are both located in the air, the scattered field method is used in our modeling. The Galerkin method is applied to discretize the Helmholtz equation for the final FE equations. Solving the FE equations, the frequency-domain AEM responses are obtained. To accelerate the calculation speed, the response of source in free-space is used as the primary field and the PARDISO direct solver is used to deal with the problem with multiple transmitting sources. After calculating the frequency-domain AEM responses, a Hankel’s transform is applied to obtain the time-domain AEM responses. To check the accuracy of present algorithm and to analyze the characteristic of topographic effect on airborne EM systems, both the frequency- and time-domain AEM responses for 3 model groups are simulated: 1) a flat half-space model that has a semi-analytical solution of EM response; 2) a valley or hill earth model; 3) a valley or hill earth with an abnormal body embedded. Numerical experiments show that close to the node points of the topography, AEM responses demonstrate sharp changes. Special attentions need to be paid to the topographic effects when interpreting AEM survey data over rugged topographic areas. Besides, the profile of the AEM responses presents a mirror relation with the topographic earth surface. In comparison to the topographic effect that mainly occurs at the high-frequency end and early time channels, the EM responses of underground conductors mainly occur at low frequencies and later time channels. For the signal of the same time channel, the dB/dt field reflects the change of conductivity better than the B-field. The research of this paper will serve airborne EM in the identification and correction of the topographic effects.

Keywords: 3D, Airborne EM, forward modeling, topographic effect

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Authors: Ibrahim O. Abdulmalik, Michael C. Amonye, Mahdi Makoyo

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Manual knapsack sprayer is the most popular means of farm spraying in Nigeria. It has its limitations. Apart from the human fatigue, which leads to unsteady walking steps, their field capacities are small. They barely cover about 0.2hectare per hour. Their small swath implies that a sizeable farm would take several days to cover. Weather changes are erratic and often it is desired to spray a large farm within hours or few days for even effect, uniformity and to avoid adverse weather interference. It is also often required that a large farm be covered within a short period to avoid re-emergence of weeds before crop emergence. Deployment of many knapsack operators to large farms has not been successful. Human error in taking equally spaced swaths usually result in over dosage of overlaps and in unapplied areas due to error at edges overlaps. Large farm spraying require boom equipment with larger swath. Reduced error in swath overlaps and spraying within the shortest possible time are then assured. Tractor boom sprayers would readily overcome these problems and achieve greater coverage, but they are not available in the country. Tractor hire for cultivation is very costly with the attendant lack of spare parts and specialized technicians for maintenance wherefore farmers find it difficult to engage tractors for cultivation and would avoid considering the employment of a tractor boom sprayer. Animal traction in farming is predominant in Nigeria, especially in the Northern part of the country. Development of boom sprayers drawn by work animals surely implies the maximization of animal utilization in farming. The Hydraulic Equipment Development Institute, Kano, in keeping to its mandate of targeted R&D in hydraulic and pneumatic systems, has developed an Animal Drawn Knapsack Boom Sprayer with four nozzles using the axle mechanism of a two wheeled cart to actuate the piston pump of two knapsack sprayers in line with appropriate technology demand of the country. It is hoped that the introduction of this novel contrivance shall enhance crop protection practice and lead to greater crop and food production in Nigeria.

Keywords: boom, knapsack, farm, sprayer, wheel axle

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Natheer Alatawneh

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The finite element analysis of magnetic fields in electromagnetic devices shows that the machine cores experience different flux patterns including alternating and rotating fields. The rotating fields are generated in different configurations range between circular and elliptical with different ratios between the major and minor axis of the flux locus. Experimental measurements on electrical steel exposed to different flux patterns disclose different magnetic losses in the samples under test. Consequently, electric machines require special attention during the cores loss calculation process to consider the flux patterns. In this study, a circular rotational single sheet tester is employed to measure the core losses in electric steel sample of M36G29. The sample was exposed to alternating field, circular field, and elliptical fields with axis ratios of 0.2, 0.4, 0.6 and 0.8. The measured data was implemented on 6-4 switched reluctance motor at three different frequencies of interest to the industry as 60 Hz, 400 Hz, and 1 kHz. The results disclose a high margin of error that may occur during the loss calculations if the flux patterns issue is neglected. The error in different parts of the machine associated with considering the flux patterns can be around 50%, 10%, and 2% at 60Hz, 400Hz, and 1 kHz, respectively. The future work will focus on the optimization of machine geometrical shape which has a primary effect on the flux pattern in order to minimize the magnetic losses in machine cores.

Keywords: alternating core losses, electric machines, finite element analysis, rotational core losses

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Young S. Bang, Dong H. Yoon, Seung H. Yoo

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Emergency Core Coolant Bypass (ECC Bypass) has been regarded as an important phenomenon to peak cladding temperature of large-break loss-of-coolant-accidents (LBLOCA) in nuclear power plants (NPP). A modeling scheme to address the ECC Bypass phenomena and the calculation of LBLOCA using that scheme are discussed in the present paper. A hydraulic form loss coefficient (HFLC) from the reactor vessel downcomer to the broken cold leg is predicted by the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code with a variation of the void fraction incoming from the downcomer. The maximum, mean, and minimum values of FLC are derived from the CFD results and are incorporated into the LBLOCA calculation using a system thermal-hydraulic code, MARS-KS. As a relevant parameter addressing the ECC Bypass phenomena, the FLC to the break and its range are proposed.

Keywords: CFD analysis, ECC bypass, hydraulic form loss coefficient, system thermal-hydraulic code

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Delara Kazempour, Mashallah Abasi Dezfuli, Reza Javidan

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Video compression used for channels with limited bandwidth and storage devices has limited storage capabilities. One of the most popular approaches in video compression is the usage of different transforms. Discrete cosine transform is one of the video compression methods that have some problems such as blocking, noising and high distortion inappropriate effect in compression ratio. wavelet transform is another approach is better than cosine transforms in balancing of compression and quality but the recognizing of curve curvature is so limit. Because of the importance of the compression and problems of the cosine and wavelet transforms, the contourlet transform is most popular in video compression. In the new proposed method, we used contourlet transform in video image compression. Contourlet transform can save details of the image better than the previous transforms because this transform is multi-scale and oriented. This transform can recognize discontinuity such as edges. In this approach we lost data less than previous approaches. Contourlet transform finds discrete space structure. This transform is useful for represented of two dimension smooth images. This transform, produces compressed images with high compression ratio along with texture and edge preservation. Finally, the results show that the majority of the images, the parameters of the mean square error and maximum signal-to-noise ratio of the new method based contourlet transform compared to wavelet transform are improved but in most of the images, the parameters of the mean square error and maximum signal-to-noise ratio in the cosine transform is better than the method based on contourlet transform.

Keywords: video compression, contourlet transform, discrete cosine transform, wavelet transform

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Authors: Francesco Morgan Bono, Simone Cinquemani

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This research aims to enhance bridge monitoring by employing innovative techniques that incorporate exogenous factors into the modeling of sensor signals, thereby improving long-term predictability beyond traditional static methods. Using real datasets from two different bridges equipped with Linear Variable Displacement Transducer (LVDT) sensors, the study investigates the fundamental principles governing sensor behavior for more precise long-term forecasts. Additionally, the research evaluates performance on noisy and synthetically damaged data, proposing a residual-based alarm system to detect anomalies in the bridge. In summary, this novel approach combines advanced modeling, exogenous factors, and anomaly detection to extend prediction horizons and improve preemptive damage recognition, significantly advancing structural health monitoring practices.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, dynamic models, sindy, railway bridges

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Authors: Iftekhar Hassan, Sayedil Morsalin, Easir A Khan

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Accidents involving fire occur frequently in recent times and their causes showing a great deal of variety which require intervention methods and risk assessment strategies are unique in each case. On September 4, 2020, a fire and explosion occurred in a confined space caused by a methane gas leak from an underground pipeline in Baitus Salat Jame mosque during Night (Esha) prayer in Narayanganj District, Bangladesh that killed 34 people. In this research, this incident is simulated using Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) software to analyze and understand the nature of the accident and associated consequences. FDS is an advanced computational fluid dynamics (CFD) system of fire-driven fluid flow which solves numerically a large eddy simulation form of the Navier–Stokes’s equations for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal radiation, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. This study focuses on understanding the nature of the fire and consequence evaluation due to thermal radiation caused by vapor cloud explosion. An evacuation modeling was constructed to visualize the effect of evacuation time and fractional effective dose (FED) for different types of agents. The results were presented by 3D animation, sliced pictures and graphical representation to understand fire hazards caused by thermal radiation or smoke due to vapor cloud explosion. This study will help to design and develop appropriate respond strategy for preventing similar accidents.

Keywords: consequence modeling, fire and explosion, fire dynamics simulation (FDS), thermal radiation

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Authors: Meng Su

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High-dimensional data analysis often presents challenges in capturing the complex, nonlinear relationships and manifold structures inherent to the data. This article presents a novel approach that leverages the strengths of two powerful techniques, Diffusion Maps and Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs), to address these challenges. By integrating the dimensionality reduction capability of Diffusion Maps with the data modeling ability of DPMs, the proposed method aims to provide a comprehensive solution for analyzing and generating high-dimensional data. The Diffusion Map technique preserves the nonlinear relationships and manifold structure of the data by mapping it to a lower-dimensional space using the eigenvectors of the graph Laplacian matrix. Meanwhile, DPMs capture the dependencies within the data, enabling effective modeling and generation of new data points in the low-dimensional space. The generated data points can then be mapped back to the original high-dimensional space, ensuring consistency with the underlying manifold structure. Through a detailed example implementation, the article demonstrates the potential of the proposed hybrid approach to achieve more accurate and effective modeling and generation of complex, high-dimensional data. Furthermore, it discusses possible applications in various domains, such as image synthesis, time-series forecasting, and anomaly detection, and outlines future research directions for enhancing the scalability, performance, and integration with other machine learning techniques. By combining the strengths of Diffusion Maps and DPMs, this work paves the way for more advanced and robust data analysis methods.

Keywords: diffusion maps, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs), manifold learning, high-dimensional data analysis

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Authors: Suriya

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Rapid socio-economic development and urbanization have led to an increasingly serious air pollution problem in Ulaanbaatar (UB), the capital of Mongolia. PM₂.₅ pollution has become the most pressing aspect of UB air pollution. Therefore, monitoring and predicting PM₂.₅ concentration in UB is of great significance for the health of the local people and environmental management. As of yet, very few studies have used models to predict PM₂.₅ concentrations in UB. Using data from 0:00 on June 1, 2018, to 23:00 on April 30, 2020, we proposed two deep learning models based on Bayesian-optimized LSTM (Bayes-LSTM) and CNN-LSTM. We utilized hourly observed data, including Himawari8 (H8) aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorology, and PM₂.₅ concentration, as input for the prediction of PM₂.₅ concentrations. The correlation strengths between meteorology, AOD, and PM₂.₅ were analyzed using the gray correlation analysis method; the comparison of the performance improvement of the model by using the AOD input value was tested, and the performance of these models was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The prediction accuracies of Bayes-LSTM and CNN-LSTM deep learning models were both improved when AOD was included as an input parameter. Improvement of the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model was particularly enhanced in the non-heating season; in the heating season, the prediction accuracy of the Bayes-LSTM model slightly improved, while the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model slightly decreased. We propose two novel deep learning models for PM₂.₅ concentration prediction in UB, Bayes-LSTM, and CNN-LSTM deep learning models. Pioneering the use of AOD data from H8 and demonstrating the inclusion of AOD input data improves the performance of our two proposed deep learning models.

Keywords: deep learning, AOD, PM2.5, prediction, Ulaanbaatar

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Authors: Alibakhsh Kasaeian, Mohammad Sameti, Zahra Noori, Mona Rastgoo Bahambari

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Nowadays, the parabolic trough solar collector technology has become the most promising large-scale technology among various solar thermal generations. In this paper, a detailed numerical heat transfer model for a parabolic trough collector with nanofluid is presented based on the finite difference approach for which a MATLAB code was developed. The model was used to simulate the performance of a parabolic trough solar collector’s linear receiver, called a heat collector element (HCE). In this model, the heat collector element of the receiver was discretized into several segments in axial directions and energy balances were used for each control volume. All the heat transfer correlations, the thermodynamic equations and the optical properties were considered in details and the set of algebraic equations were solved simultaneously using iterative numerical solutions. The modeling assumptions and limitations are also discussed, along with recommendations for model improvement.

Keywords: heat transfer, nanofluid, numerical analysis, trough

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang

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This study examines adolescent psychological and behavioral problems. The Achenbach systems of empirically based assessment (ASEBA) were used as the instrument. The problem framework consists of internal, external and social behavioral problems which are theoretically developed based on about 113 items plus relevant background variables. In this study, the sample consist of 1,975 sixth and seventh grade students in Northeast China. Stratified random sampling method was used to collect the data, meaning that samples were from different school districts, schools, and classes. The researchers looked at both macro and micro effect. Therefore, multilevel analysis techniques were used in the data analysis. The parts of the research results indicated that the background variables such as extracurricular activities were directly related to students’ internal problems.

Keywords: behavioral problems, anxious/depressed problems, internalizing problems, mental health, under-represented groups, empirically-based assessment, hierarchical modeling, ASEBA, multilevel analysis

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Authors: Haripriya Chakraborty

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The healthcare system in the United States is considered to be one of the most inefficient and expensive systems when compared to other developed countries. Consequently, there are persistent concerns regarding the overall functioning of this system. For instance, the large number of uninsured individuals and high premiums are pressing issues that are shown to have a negative effect on health outcomes with possible life-threatening consequences. The Affordable Care Act (ACA), which was signed into law in 2010, was aimed at improving some of these inefficiencies. This paper aims at providing a computational mechanism to examine some of these inefficiencies and the effects that policy proposals may have on reducing these inefficiencies. Agent-based modeling is an invaluable tool that provides a flexible framework to model complex systems. It can provide an important perspective into the nature of some interactions that occur and how the benefits of these interactions are allocated. In this paper, we propose a novel and versatile agent-based model with realistic assumptions to simulate the dynamics of a health insurance marketplace that contains a mixture of private and public insurers and individuals. We use this model to analyze the characteristics, motivations, payoffs, and strategies of these agents. In addition, we examine the effects of certain policies, including some of the provisions of the ACA, aimed at reducing the uninsured rate and the cost of premiums to move closer to a system that is more equitable and improves health outcomes for the general population. Our test results confirm the usefulness of our agent-based model in studying this complicated issue and suggest some implications for public policies aimed at healthcare reform.

Keywords: agent-based modeling, healthcare reform, insurance markets, public policy

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Adrian Rifqi, Febe Napitupulu, Erdi Hermawan, Edwin Putra, Yang Leprilian

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This article focuses on the implementation of the production improvement process of the Indonesian land certificate product that printed in Perum Peruri as the state-owned enterprises. Based on the data obtained, there are several complaints from customers of the 2019 land certificate production. The complaints become a negative value to loyal customers of Perum Peruri. Almost all the complaints are referring to ‘defective printouts and the difference between products in packaging and packaging labels both in terms of type and quantity’. To overcome this problem, we intend to make an improvement to the production process that focuses on complaints ‘there is a difference between products in packaging with packaging labels’. Improvements in the land certificate production process are relying on the technology of the scales and QR code on the packaging label. In addition, using the QR code on the packaging label will facilitate the process of tracking product data. With this method, we hope to reduce the error rate between products in packaging with the packaging label both in terms of quantity, type, and product number on the land certificate and error rate of sending land certificates, which will be sent to many places to 0%. With this solution, we also hope to get precise data and real-time reports on the production of land certificates in the near future, so track and trace implementation can be done as the solution of the land certificate production.

Keywords: land certificates, QR code, track and trace, packaging

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: B. Khatri, K. Lappe, M. Habedank, T. Müller, C. Megnin, T. Hanemann

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We present a process flow for the development of ceramic-filled polymer composite filaments compatible with the fused deposition modeling (FDM) 3D printing process. Thermoplastic-ceramic composites were developed using acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and 10- and 20 vol.% barium titanate (BaTiO3) powder (corresponding to 39.47- and 58.23 wt.% respectively) and characterized for their flow properties. To make them compatible with the existing FDM process, the composites were extruded into filaments. These composite filaments were subsequently structured into tensile stress specimens using a commercially available FDM 3D printer and characterized for their mechanical properties. Rheometric characterization of the material composites revealed non-Newtonian behavior with the viscosity logarithmically decreasing over increasing shear rates, as well as higher viscosities for samples with higher BaTiO3 filler content for a given shear rate (with the ABS+20vol.% BaTiO3 composite being over 50% more viscous compared to pure ABS at a shear rate of 1x〖10〗^3 s^(-1)). Mechanical characterization of the tensile stress specimens exhibited increasingly brittle behavior as well as a linearly decreasing ultimate tensile strength of the material composites with increasing volumetric ratio of BaTiO3 (from σ_max=32.4MPa for pure ABS to σ_max=21.3MPa for ABS+20vol.% BaTiO3). Further studies being undertaken include the development of composites with higher filler concentrations, sintering of the printed composites to yield pure dielectric structures and the determination of the dielectric characteristics of the composites.

Keywords: ceramic composites, fused deposition modeling, material characterization, rapid prototyping

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Authors: W. H. Wan Zakiyatussariroh, A. A. Nasuhar, W. Y. Wan Fairos, Z. A. Nazatul Shahreen

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Forecasting dengue incidence in a population can provide useful information to facilitate the planning of the public health intervention. Many studies on dengue cases in Malaysia were conducted but are limited in modeling the outbreak and forecasting incidence. This article attempts to propose the most appropriate time series model to explain the behavior of dengue incidence in Malaysia for the purpose of forecasting future dengue outbreaks. Several seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were developed to model Malaysia’s number of dengue incidence on weekly data collected from January 2001 to December 2011. SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 model was found to be the most suitable model for Malaysia’s dengue incidence with the least value of Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for in-sample fitting. The models further evaluate out-sample forecast accuracy using four different accuracy measures. The results indicate that SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 performed well for both in-sample fitting and out-sample evaluation.

Keywords: time series modeling, Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, forecasting

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Authors: M. Cardenas-Garcia, P. P. Gonzalez-Perez

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Intercellular communication is a necessary condition for cellular functions and it allows a group of cells to survive as a population. Throughout this interaction, the cells work in a coordinated and collaborative way which facilitates their survival. In the case of cancerous cells, these take advantage of intercellular communication to preserve their malignancy, since through these physical unions they can send signs of malignancy. The Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway plays an important role in the formation of intercellular communications, being also involved in a large number of cellular processes such as proliferation, differentiation, adhesion, cell survival, and cell death. The modeling and simulation of cellular signaling systems have found valuable support in a wide range of modeling approaches, which cover a wide spectrum ranging from mathematical models; e.g., ordinary differential equations, statistical methods, and numerical methods– to computational models; e.g., process algebra for modeling behavior and variation in molecular systems. Based on these models, different simulation tools have been developed from mathematical ones to computational ones. Regarding cellular and molecular processes in cancer, its study has also found a valuable support in different simulation tools that, covering a spectrum as mentioned above, have allowed the in silico experimentation of this phenomenon at the cellular and molecular level. In this work, we simulate and explore the complex interaction patterns of intercellular communication in cancer cells using the Cellulat bioinformatics tool, a computational simulation tool developed by us and motivated by two key elements: 1) a biochemically inspired model of self-organizing coordination in tuple spaces, and 2) the Gillespie’s algorithm, a stochastic simulation algorithm typically used to mimic systems of chemical/biochemical reactions in an efficient and accurate way. The main idea behind the Cellulat simulation tool is to provide an in silico experimentation environment that complements and guides in vitro experimentation in intra and intercellular signaling networks. Unlike most of the cell signaling simulation tools, such as E-Cell, BetaWB and Cell Illustrator which provides abstractions to model only intracellular behavior, Cellulat is appropriate for modeling both intracellular signaling and intercellular communication, providing the abstractions required to model –and as a result, simulate– the interaction mechanisms that involve two or more cells, that is essential in the scenario discussed in this work. During the development of this work we made evident the application of our computational simulation tool (Cellulat) for the modeling and simulation of intercellular communication between normal and cancerous cells, and in this way, propose key molecules that may prevent the arrival of malignant signals to the cells that surround the tumor cells. In this manner, we could identify the significant role that has the Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway in cellular communication, and therefore, in the dissemination of cancer cells. We verified, using in silico experiments, how the inhibition of this signaling pathway prevents that the cells that surround a cancerous cell are transformed.

Keywords: cancer cells, in silico approach, intercellular communication, key molecules, modeling and simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Ayad A. Abdulkafi, Shahir F. Nawaf, Mohammed K. Hussein, Ibrahim K. Sileh, Fouad A. Abdulkafi

Abstract:

Visible light communication (VLC) is a new approach of optical wireless communication proposed to support the congested radio frequency (RF) spectrum. VLC systems are combined with orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) to achieve high rate transmission and high spectral efficiency. In this paper, we investigate the Pilot-Assisted Channel Estimation for DC biased Optical OFDM (PACE-DCO-OFDM) systems to reduce the effects of the distortion on the transmitted signal. Least-square (LS) and linear minimum mean-squared error (LMMSE) estimators are implemented in MATLAB/Simulink to enhance the bit-error-rate (BER) of PACE-DCO-OFDM. Results show that DCO-OFDM system based on PACE scheme has achieved better BER performance compared to conventional system without pilot assisted channel estimation. Simulation results show that the proposed PACE-DCO-OFDM based on LMMSE algorithm can more accurately estimate the channel and achieves better BER performance when compared to the LS based PACE-DCO-OFDM and the traditional system without PACE. For the same signal to noise ratio (SNR) of 25 dB, the achieved BER is about 5×10^-4 for LMMSE-PACE and 4.2×10^-3 with LS-PACE while it is about 2×10^-1 for system without PACE scheme.

Keywords: channel estimation, OFDM, pilot-assist, VLC

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Authors: Pablo Martin, Jorge Olivares, Fernando Maass

Abstract:

A method to obtain analytic approximations for special function of interest in engineering and physics is described here. Each approximate function will be valid for every positive value of the variable and accuracy will be high and increasing with the number of parameters to determine. The general technique will be shown through an application to the modified Bessel function of order zero, I₀(x). The form and the calculation of the parameters are performed with the simultaneous use of the power series and asymptotic expansion. As in Padé method rational functions are used, but now they are combined with other elementary functions as; fractional powers, hyperbolic, trigonometric and exponential functions, and others. The elementary function is determined, considering that the approximate function should be a bridge between the power series and the asymptotic expansion. In the case of the I₀(x) function two analytic approximations have been already determined. The simplest one is (1+x²/4)⁻¹/⁴(1+0.24273x²) cosh(x)/(1+0.43023x²). The parameters of I₀(x) were determined using the leading term of the asymptotic expansion and two coefficients of the power series, and the maximum relative error is 0.05. In a second case, two terms of the asymptotic expansion were used and 4 of the power series and the maximum relative error is 0.001 at x≈9.5. Approximations with much higher accuracy will be also shown. In conclusion a new technique is described to obtain analytic approximations to some functions of interest in sciences, such that they have a high accuracy, they are valid for every positive value of the variable, they can be integrated and differentiated as the usual, functions, and furthermore they can be calculated easily even with a regular pocket calculator.

Keywords: analytic approximations, mathematical-physics applications, quasi-rational functions, special functions

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Changshan Zhang, Zhijin Yu, Shixing Fan

Abstract:

A comprehensive hazard evaluation for coal self-heating in composite long-wall gobs is heavily dependent on computational simulation. In this study, the spatial distributions of cracks which caused significant air leakage were simulated by universal distinct element code (UDEC) simulation. Based on the main routes of air leakage and characteristics of coal self-heating, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was conducted to model the coal spontaneous combustion dangerous area in composite long-wall gobs. The results included the oxygen concentration distributions and temperature profiles showed that the numerical approach is validated by comparison with the test data. Furthermore, under the conditions of specific engineering, the major locations where some techniques for extinguishing and preventing long-wall gob fires need to be put into practice were also examined.

Keywords: computational simulation, UDEC simulation, coal self-heating, CFD modeling, long-wall gobs

Procedia PDF Downloads 295