Search results for: small area variation

Authors: Joanna Kochanska, Dagmara Gornicka, Anna Burduk

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The article examines the process of implementing a new assembly line in a manufacturing enterprise of the household appliances industry area. At the initial stages of the project, a decision was made that one of its foundations should be the concept of lean management. Because of that, eliminating as many errors as possible in the first phases of its functioning was emphasized. During the start-up of the line, there were identified and documented all production losses (from serious machine failures, through any unplanned downtime, to micro-stops and quality defects). During 6 weeks (line start-up period), all errors resulting from problems in various areas were analyzed. These areas were, among the others, production, logistics, quality, and organization. The aim of the work was to analyze the occurrence of production failures during the initial phase of starting up the line and to propose a method for determining their critical level during its full functionality. There was examined the repeatability of the production losses in various areas and at different levels at such an early stage of implementation, by using the methods of statistical process control. Based on the Pareto analysis, there were identified the weakest points in order to focus improvement actions on them. The next step was to examine the effectiveness of the actions undertaken to reduce the level of recorded losses. Based on the obtained results, there was proposed a method for determining the critical failures level in the studied areas. The developed coefficient can be used as an alarm in case of imbalance of the production, which is caused by the increased failures level in production and production support processes in the period of the standardized functioning of the line.

Keywords: production failures, level of production losses, new production line implementation, assembly line, statistical process control

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Authors: Mrinalini Amritkar, Disha Patil, Swapna Kulkarni, Sukratu Barve, Suresh Gosavi

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Micro-mixers play an important role in the lab-on-a-chip applications and micro total analysis systems to acquire the correct level of mixing for any given process. The mixing process can be classified as active or passive according to the use of external energy. Literature of microfluidics reports that most of the work is done on the models of steady laminar flow; however, the study of unsteady laminar flow is an active area of research at present. There are wide applications of this, out of which, we consider nanoparticle synthesis in micro-mixers. In this work, we have developed a model for unsteady flow to study the mixing performance of a passive micro mixer for reactants used for such synthesis. The model is developed in Finite Volume Method (FVM)-based software, OpenFOAM. The model is tested by carrying out the simulations at Re of 0.5. Mixing performance of the micro-mixer is investigated using simulated concentration values of mixed species across the width of the micro-mixer and calculating the variance across a line profile. Experimental validation is done by passing dyes through a Y shape micro-mixer fabricated using polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) polymer and comparing variances with the simulated ones. Gold nanoparticles are later synthesized through the micro-mixer and collected at two different times leading to significantly different size distributions. These times match with the time scales over which reactant concentrations vary as obtained from simulations. Our simulations could thus be used to create design aids for passive micro-mixers used in nanoparticle synthesis.

Keywords: Lab-on-chip, LOC, micro-mixer, OpenFOAM, PDMS

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Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

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Seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry buildings is a fundamental issue even for moderate to low seismic hazard regions. This fact is even more important when dealing with old structures such as those located in Annaba city (Algeria), which the majority of dates back to the French colonial era from 1830. This category of buildings is in high risk due to their highly degradation state, heterogeneous materials and intrusive modifications to structural and non-structural elements. Furthermore, they are usually shelter a dense population, which is exposed to such risk. In order to undertake a suitable seismic risk mitigation strategies and reinforcement process for such structures, it is essential to estimate their seismic resistance capacity at a large scale. In this sense, two seismic vulnerability index methods and damage estimation have been adapted and applied to a pilot-scale building area located in the moderate seismic hazard region of Annaba city: The first one based on the EMS-98 building typologies, and the second one derived from the Italian GNDT approach. To perform this task, the authors took the advantage of an existing data survey previously performed for other purposes. The results obtained from the application of the two methods were integrated and compared using a geographic information system tool (GIS), with the ultimate goal of supporting the city council of Annaba for the implementation of risk mitigation and emergency planning strategies.

Keywords: Annaba city, EMS98 concept, GNDT method, old city center, seismic vulnerability index, unreinforced masonry buildings

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Authors: P. Dey, S. K. Pal

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Ceramics or glass ceramics with the property of bone bonding at the nearby tissues and producing possible bone in growth are known to be bioactive. The most extensively used glass in this context is 45S5 which is a silica based bioglass mostly explored in the field of tissue engineering as scaffolds for bone repair. Nowadays, the borate based bioglass are being utilized in orthopedic area largely due to its superior bioactivity with the formation of bone bonding. An attempt has been made, in the present study, to observe the effect of B2O3 addition in 45S5 glass and perceive its consequences on the thermal, mechanical and biological properties. The B2O3 was added in 1, 2.5, and 5 wt% with simultaneous reduction in the silica content of the 45S5 composition. The borate based bioglass has been synthesized by the means of sol-gel route. The synthesized powders were then thermally analyzed by DSC-TG. The as synthesized powders were then calcined at 600ºC for 2hrs. The calcined powders were then pressed into pellets followed by sintering at 850ºC with a holding time of 2hrs. The phase analysis and the microstructural analysis of the as synthesized and calcined powder glass samples and the sintered glass samples were being carried out using XRD and FESEM respectively. The formation of hydroxyapatite layer was performed by immersing the sintered samples in the simulated body fluid (SBF) and mechanical property has been tested for the sintered samples by universal testing machine (UTM). The sintered samples showed the presence of sodium calcium silicate phase while the formation of hydroxyapaptite takes place for SBF immersed samples. The formation of hydroxyapatite is more pronounced in case of borated based glass samples instead of 45S5.

Keywords: 45S5 bioglass, bioactive, borate, hydroxyapatite, sol-gel synthesis

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Authors: Kayode Festus Oyedele, Sunday Oladele, Adaora Chibundu Nduka

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The subsurface of a proposed site for building development in Mowe, Nigeria, using Standard Penetration Test (SPT) and Cone Penetrometer Test (CPT) supplemented with Horizontal Electrical Profiling (HEP) was investigated with the aim of evaluating the suitability of the strata for foundation materials. Four SPT and CPT were implemented using 10 tonnes hammer. HEP utilizing Wenner array were performed with inter-electrode spacing of 10 – 60 m along four traverses coincident with each of the SPT and CPT. The HEP data were processed using DIPRO software and textural filtering of the resulting resistivity sections was implemented to enable delineation of hidden layers. Sandy lateritic clay, silty lateritic clay, clay, clayey sand and sand horizons were delineated. The SPT “N” value defined very soft to soft sandy lateritic (<4), stiff silty lateritic clay (7 – 12), very stiff silty clay (12 - 15), clayey sand (15- 20) and sand (27 – 37). Sandy lateritic clay (5-40 kg/cm2) and silty lateritic clay (25 - 65 kg/cm2) were defined from the CPT response. Sandy lateritic clay (220-750 Ωm), clay (< 50 Ωm) and sand (415-5359 Ωm) were delineated from the resistivity sections with two thin layers of silty lateritic clay and clayey sand defined in the texturally filtered resistivity sections. This study concluded that the presence of incompetent thick clayey materials (18 m) beneath the study area makes it unsuitable for shallow foundation. Deep foundation involving piling through the clayey layers to the competent sand at 20 m depth was recommended.

Keywords: cone penetrometer, foundation, lithologic texture, resistivity section, standard penetration test

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Authors: Joulié Aurélien, Jourdain Elsa, Bailly Xavier, Gasqui Patrick, Yang Elise, Leblond Agnès, Rousset Elodie, Sidi-Boumedine Karim

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Q fever is a worldwide zoonosis caused by the gram-negative obligate intracellular bacterium Coxiella burnetii. Following the recent outbreaks in the Netherlands, a hyper virulent clone was found to be the cause of severe human cases of Q fever. In livestock, Q fever clinical manifestations are mainly abortions. Although the abortion rates differ between ruminant species, C. burnetii’s virulence remains understudied, especially in enzootic areas. In this study, the infectious potential of three C. burnetii isolates collected from French farms of small ruminants were compared to the reference strain Nine Mile (in phase II and in an intermediate phase) using an in vivo (CD1 mice) model. Mice were challenged with 105 live bacteria discriminated by propidium monoazide-qPCR targeting the icd-gene. After footpad inoculation, spleen and popliteal lymph node were harvested at 10 days post-inoculation (p.i). The strain invasiveness in spleen and popliteal nodes was assessed by qPCR assays targeting the icd-gene. Preliminary results showed that the avirulent strains (in phase 2) failed to pass the popliteal barrier and then to colonize the spleen. This model allowed a significant differentiation between strain’s invasiveness on biological host and therefore identifying distinct virulence profiles. In view of these results, we plan to go further by testing fifteen additional C. burnetii isolates from French farms of sheep, goat and cattle by using the above-mentioned in vivo model. All 15 strains display distant MLVA (multiple-locus variable-number of tandem repeat analysis) genotypic profiles. Five of the fifteen isolates will bee also tested in vitro on ovine and bovine macrophage cells. Cells and supernatants will be harvested at day1, day2, day3 and day6 p.i to assess in vitro multiplication kinetics of strains. In conclusion, our findings might help the implementation of surveillance of virulent strains and ultimately allow adapting prophylaxis measures in livestock farms.

Keywords: Q fever, invasiveness, ruminant, virulence

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Authors: Marina Kartseva, Polina Kuznetsova

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In our work, we estimate the contribution of inequality of opportunity to inequality in the health of the Russian population aged 25 to 74 years. The empirical basis of the study is the nationally representative data of the RLMS for 2018. Individual health is measured using a self-reported status on five-point scale. The startconditions are characterized by parental education and place of birth (country, type of settlement). Personal efforts to maintain health include the level of education, smoking status, and physical activity. To understand how start opportunities affect an individual's health, we use the methodology proposed in (Trannoy et al., 2010), which takes into account both direct and indirect (through the influence on efforts) effects. Regression analysis shows that all other things being equal, the starting capabilities of individuals have a significant impact on their health. In particular, parental education has a positive effect on self-reported health. Birth in another country, in another settlement, and in an urban area, on the contrary, reduceself-reported health. This allows to conclude that there exists an unfair inequality in health, namely inequality caused by factors that are independent of a person's own efforts. We estimate the contribution of inequality of opportunity to inequality in health using a nonparametric approach (Checchi, Peragine, 2010; Lazar, 2013). According to the obtained results, the contribution of unfair inequality as 72-74% for the population as a whole, being slightly higher for women (62-74% and 60-69% for men and women, respectively) and for older age (59- 62% and 67-75% for groups 25-44 years old and 45-74 years old, respectively). The obtained estimates are comparable with the results for other countries and indicate the importance of the problem of inequality of opportunities in health in Russia.

Keywords: inequality of opportunity, inequality in health, self-reported health, efforts, health-related lifestyle, Russia, RLMS

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Authors: Shima Mahmoudi, Babak Pourakbari, Setareh Mamishi, Mostafa Teymuri, Majid Marjani

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Although cytokine analysis has greatly contributed to the understanding of tuberculosis (TB) pathogenesis, data on cytokine profiles that might distinguish progression from latency of TB infection are scarce. Since PE/PPE proteins are known to induce strong humoral and cellular immune responses, the aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic potential of interleukin-2 (IL-2) as biomarker after specific antigen stimulation with PE35 and PPE68 for the discrimination of active and latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). The production of IL-2 was measured in the antigen-stimulated whole-blood supernatants following stimulation with recombinant PE35 and PPE68. All the patients with active TB and LTBI had positive QuantiFERON-TB Gold in Tube test. The level of IL-2 following stimulation with recombinant PE35 and PPE68 were significantly higher in LTBI group than in patients with active TB infection or control group. The discrimination performance (assessed by the area under ROC curve) for IL-2 following stimulation with recombinant PE35 and PPE68 between LTBI and patients with active TB were 0.837 (95%CI: 0.72-0.97) and 0.75 (95%CI: 0.63-0.89), respectively. Applying the 12.4 pg/mL cut-off for IL-2 induced by PE35 in the present study population resulted in sensitivity of 78%, specificity of 78%, PPV of 78% and NPV of 100%. In addition, a sensitivity of 81%, specificity of 70%, PPV of 67% and 87% of NPV was reported based on the 4.4 pg/mL cut-off for IL-2 induced by PPE68. In conclusion, peptides of the antigen PE35 and PPE68, absent from commonly used BCG strains, stimulated strong IL-2- positive T cell responses in patients with LTBI. This study confirms IL-2 induced by PE35 and PPE68 as a sensitive and specific biomarker and highlights IL-2 as new promising adjunct markers for discriminating of LTBI and Active TB infection.

Keywords: IL-2, PE35, PPE68, tuberculosis

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Authors: Juliana Bom-Tempo

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The proposed composition occurs between images, performances, clinics and philosophies. For this enterprise we depart for what is not known beforehand, so with a question as a compass: "would it be in the creation, production and implementation of images in a performance a 'when' for the event of a poetic clinic?” In light of this, there are, in order to think a 'when' of the event of a poetic clinic, images in performances created, produced and executed in partnerships with the author of this text. Faced with this composition, we built four indicators to find spatiotemporal coordinates that would spot that "when", namely: risk zones; the mobilizations of the signs; the figuring of the flesh and an education of the affections. We dealt with the images in performances; Crútero; Flesh; Karyogamy and the risk of abortion; Egg white; Egg-mouth; Islands, threads, words ... germs; Egg-Mouth-Debris, taken as case studies, by engendering risks areas to promote individuations, which never actualize thoroughly, thus always something of pre-individual and also individuating a environment; by mobilizing the signs territorialized by the ordinary, causing them to vary the language and the words of order dictated by the everyday in other compositions of sense, other machinations; by generating a figure of flesh, disarranging the bodies, isolating them in the production of a ground force that causes the body to leak out and undo the functionalities of the organs; and, finally, by producing an education of affections, by placing the perceptions in becoming and disconnecting the visible in the production of small deserts that call for the creation of a people yet to come. The performance is processed as a problematizing of the images fixed by the ordinary, producing gestures that precipitate the individuation of images in performance, strange to the configurations that gather bodies and spaces in what we call common. Lawrence proposes to think of "people" who continually use umbrellas to protect themselves from chaos. These have the function of wrapping up the chaos in visions that create houses, forms and stabilities; they paint a sky at the bottom of the umbrella, where people march and die. A chaos, where people live and wither. Pierce the umbrella for a desire of chaos; a poet puts himself as an enemy of the convention, to be able to have an image of chaos and a little sun that burns his skin. The images in performances presented, thereby, were moving in search for the power of producing a spatio-temporal "when" putting the territories in risk areas, mobilizing the signs that format the day-to-day, opening the bodies to a disorganization and the production of an education of affections for the event of a poetic clinic.

Keywords: Experimentations , Images in Performances, Poetic Clinic, Risk

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Authors: Yinglisong, Jingge Chen, Jingxuan Chen, Yan Wang, Hui Huang, Jing Zhnag, Qianqian Zhang, Zhenzhen Zhang, Ji Zhang

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Purpose: The study aims to establish a nomogram prediction model for postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) in vaginal delivery. Patients and Methods: Clinical data were retrospectively collected from vaginal delivery patients admitted to a hospital in Zhengzhou, China, from June 1, 2022 - October 31, 2022. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to filter out independent risk factors. A nomogram model was established for PPH in vaginal delivery based on the risk factors coefficient. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. To assess discrimination and calibration, receiver operator characteristics (ROC) and calibration curves were generated in the derivation and validation groups. Results: A total of 1340 cases of vaginal delivery were enrolled, with 81 (6.04%) having PPH. Logistic regression indicated that history of uterine surgery, induction of labor, duration of first labor, neonatal weight, WBC value (during the first stage of labor), and cervical lacerations were all independent risk factors of hemorrhage (P <0.05). The area-under-curve (AUC) of ROC curves of the derivation group and the validation group were 0.817 and 0.821, respectively, indicating good discrimination. Two calibration curves showed that nomogram prediction and practical results were highly consistent (P = 0.105, P = 0.113). Conclusion: The developed individualized risk prediction nomogram model can assist midwives in recognizing and diagnosing high-risk groups of PPH and initiating early warning to reduce PPH incidence.

Keywords: vaginal delivery, postpartum hemorrhage, risk factor, nomogram

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Authors: Baki Cicek, Umit Calisir

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Carbazoles have been replaced lots of studies from 1960's to present and also still continues. In 1987, the first diode device had been developed. Thanks to that study, light emitting devices have been investigated and developed and also have been used on commercial applications. Nowadays, OLED (Organic Light Emitting Diodes) technology is using on lots of electronic screen such as (mobile phone, computer monitors, televisions, etc.) Carbazoles were subject a lot of study as a semiconductor material. Although this technology is used commen and widely, it is still development stage. Metal complexes of these compounds are using at pigment dyes because of colored substances, polymer technology, medicine industry, agriculture area, preparing rocket fuel-oil, determine some of biological events, etc. Becides all of these to preparing of schiff base synthesis is going on intensely. In this study, some of novel carbazole schiff bases were synthesized starting from carbazole. For that purpose, firstly, carbazole was alkylated. After purification of N-substituted-carbazole was nitrated to sythesized 3-nitro-N-substituted and 3,6-dinitro-N-substituted carbazoles. At next step, nitro group/groups were reduced to amines. Purified with using a type of silica gel-column chromatography. At the last step of our study, with sythesized 3,6-diamino-N-substituted carbazoles and 3-amino-N-substituted carbazoles were reacted with aldehydes to condensation reactions. 3-(imino-p-hydroxybenzyl)-N-isobutyl -carbazole, 3-(imino-2,3,4-trimethoxybenzene)-N-butylcarbazole, 3-(imino-3,4-dihydroxybenzene)-N-octylcarbazole, 3-(imino-2,3-dihydroxybenzene)-N-octylkarbazole and 3,6-di(α-imino-β-naphthol) -N-hexylcarbazole compounds were synthesized. All of synthesized compounds were characterized with FT-IR, 1H-NMR, 13C-NMR, and LC-MS.

Keywords: carbazole, carbazol schiff base, condensation reactions, OLED

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Authors: T. Nozu, K. Hibi, T. Nishiie

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This paper discusses the applicability of the numerical model for a damage prediction method of the accidental hydrogen explosion occurring in a hydrogen facility. The numerical model was based on an unstructured finite volume method (FVM) code “NuFD/FrontFlowRed”. For simulating unsteady turbulent combustion of leaked hydrogen gas, a combination of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and a combustion model were used. The combustion model was based on a two scalar flamelet approach, where a G-equation model and a conserved scalar model expressed a propagation of premixed flame surface and a diffusion combustion process, respectively. For validation of this numerical model, we have simulated the previous two types of hydrogen explosion tests. One is open-space explosion test, and the source was a prismatic 5.27 m3 volume with 30% of hydrogen-air mixture. A reinforced concrete wall was set 4 m away from the front surface of the source. The source was ignited at the bottom center by a spark. The other is vented enclosure explosion test, and the chamber was 4.6 m × 4.6 m × 3.0 m with a vent opening on one side. Vent area of 5.4 m2 was used. Test was performed with ignition at the center of the wall opposite the vent. Hydrogen-air mixtures with hydrogen concentrations close to 18% vol. were used in the tests. The results from the numerical simulations are compared with the previous experimental data for the accuracy of the numerical model, and we have verified that the simulated overpressures and flame time-of-arrival data were in good agreement with the results of the previous two explosion tests.

Keywords: deflagration, large eddy simulation, turbulent combustion, vented enclosure

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Authors: Carla Idely Palencia-Aguilar

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Mining in Colombia represents around 2% of the GDP (USD 8 billion in 2018), with main productions represented by coal, nickel, gold, silver, emeralds, iron, limestone, gypsum, among others. Sand and Gravel had been decreasing its participation of the GDP with a reduction of 33.2 million m3 in 2015, to 27.4 in 2016, 22.7 in 2017 and 15.8 in 2018, with a consumption of approximately 3 tons/inhabitant. However, with the new government policies it is expected to increase in the following years. Mining causes temporary environmental impacts, once restoration and rehabilitation takes place, social, environmental and economic benefits are higher than the initial state. A way to demonstrate how the mining interventions had contributed to improve the characteristics of the region after sand and gravel mining, the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from MODIS and ASTER were employed. The histograms show not only increments of vegetation in the area (8 times higher), but also topographies similar to the ones before the intervention, according to the application for sustainable development selected: either agriculture, forestry, cattle raising, artificial wetlands or do nothing. The decision was based upon a Multicriteria analysis for optimal land use, with three main variables: geostatistics, evapotranspiration and groundwater characteristics. The use of remote sensing, meteorological stations, piezometers, sunphotometers, geoelectric analysis among others; provide the information required for the multicriteria decision. For cattle raising and agricultural applications (where various crops were implemented), conservation of products were tested by means of nanotechnology. The results showed a duration of 2 years with no chemicals added for preservation and concentration of vitamins of the tested products.

Keywords: ASTER, Geostatistics, MODIS, Multicriteria

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Authors: Ali Kadivar, Kaveh Niayesh

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This report summarizes a simulation-based approach to estimate the current interruption behavior of a fuse element utilized in a DC network protecting battery banks under different stresses. Due to internal resistance of the battries, the short circuit current in very close to the nominal current, and it makes the fuse designation tricky. The base configuration considered in this report consists of five fuse units in parallel. The simulations are performed using a multi-physics software package, COMSOL® 5.6, and the necessary material parameters have been calculated using two other software packages.The first phase of the simulation starts with the heating of the fuse elements resulted from the current flow through the fusing element. In this phase, the heat transfer between the metallic strip and the adjacent materials results in melting and evaporation of the filler and housing before the aluminum strip is evaporated and the current flow in the evaporated strip is cut-off, or an arc is eventually initiated. The initiated arc starts to expand, so the entire metallic strip is ablated, and a long arc of around 20 mm is created within the first 3 milliseconds after arc initiation (v_elongation = 6.6 m/s. The final stage of the simulation is related to the arc simulation and its interaction with the external circuitry. Because of the strong ablation of the filler material and venting of the arc caused by the melting and evaporation of the filler and housing before an arc initiates, the arc is assumed to burn in almost pure ablated material. To be able to precisely model this arc, one more step related to the derivation of the transport coefficients of the plasma in ablated urethane was necessary. The results indicate that an arc current interruption, in this case, will not be achieved within the first tens of milliseconds. In a further study, considering two series elements, the arc was interrupted within few milliseconds. A very important aspect in this context is the potential impact of many broken strips parallel to the one where the arc occurs. The generated arcing voltage is also applied to the other broken strips connected in parallel with arcing path. As the gap between the other strips is very small, a large voltage of a few hundred volts generated during the current interruption may eventually lead to a breakdown of another gap. As two arcs in parallel are not stable, one of the arcs will extinguish, and the total current will be carried by one single arc again. This process may be repeated several times if the generated voltage is very large. The ultimate result would be that the current interruption may be delayed.

Keywords: DC network, high current / low SC fuses, FEM simulation, paralle fuses

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Authors: S. Naderizadeh, A. Athanassiou, I. S. Bayer

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This work describes a layer-by-layer spraying method to produce a non-wetting coating, based on thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) and silica nanoparticles (Si-NPs). The main purpose of this work was to transform a hydrophilic polymer to superhydrophobic coating. The contact angle of pure TPU was measured about 77˚ ± 2, and water droplets did not roll away upon tilting even at 90°. But after applying a layer of Si-NPs on top of this, not only the contact angle increased to 165˚ ± 2, but also water droplets can roll away even below 5˚ tilting. The most important restriction in this study was the weak interfacial adhesion between polymer and nanoparticles, which had a bad effect on durability of the coatings. To overcome this problem, we used a very thin layer of graphene nanoplatelets (GNPs) as an interlayer between TPU and Si-NPs layers, followed by thermal treatment at 150˚C. The sample’s morphology and topography were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), EDX analysis and atomic force microscopy (AFM). It was observed that Si-NPs embedded into the polymer phase in the presence of GNPs layer. It is probably because of the high surface area and considerable thermal conductivity of the graphene platelets. The contact angle value for the sample containing graphene decreased a little bit respected to the coating without graphene and reached to 156.4˚ ± 2, due to the depletion of the surface roughness. The durability of the coatings against abrasion was evaluated by Taber® abrasion test, and it was observed that superhydrophobicity of the coatings remains for a longer time, in the presence of GNPs layer. Due to the simple fabrication method and good durability of the coating, this coating can be used as a durable superhydrophobic coating for metals and can be produced in large scale.

Keywords: graphene, silica nanoparticles, superhydrophobicity, thermoplastic polyurethane

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Authors: Louis Nyahunda, Frans Koketso Matlakala, Jabulani Calvin Makhubele

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Climate change is among the most vital environmental aspects that the human community is endowed with. Climate as a factor of life is particularly strong to low income rural communities whose livelihoods heavily depend on rain-fed subsistence agriculture like Makonde communal lands. The purpose of social work within the context of climate change is to enhance community expertise and empower members for participation in the decision-making process through all stages of risk assessment, rescue, planning and intervention for recovery and preparedness. This paper sought to explore the role of social workers in mitigating the effects of climate change in Makonde communal lands of Zimbabwe. The objectives of the study were to identify what roles if any are social workers playing in mitigating the effects of climate change and if not, what are the impediments in that sphere. A qualitative research approach was followed within the traditional framework of descriptive and exploratory designs. Simple random, purposive and snowballing sampling techniques were used to gather twenty-five participants in the study. The Thematic Content Analysis was followed to analyse data inductively. The study found that Social Workers are not directly involved in climate change interventions in the Makonde area owing it to lack of training on climate change issues. The study recommends that climate change falls within the purview of the social work practice therefore social workers must take the lead in supporting families and communities affected by climate change following the values, knowledge base, skills and principles of the profession.

Keywords: role, social workers, mitigation, climate change, Makonde communal lands

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Authors: Ahmed Alkarimi, Kevin Welham

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Organic mixed mode monolithic columns were fabricated from; glycidyl methacrylate-co-ethylene dimethacrylate-co-stearyl methacrylate, using glycidyl methacrylate and stearyl methacrylate as co monomers representing 30% and 70% respectively of the liquid volume with ethylene dimethacrylate crosslinker and 2,2-dimethoxy-2-phenylacetophenone as the free radical initiator. The monomers were mixed with a binary porogenic solvent, comprising propan-1-ol, and methanol (0.825 mL each). The monolith was formed by photo polymerization (365 nm) inside a borosilicate glass tube (1.5 mm ID and 3 mm OD x 50 mm length). The monolith was observed to have formed correctly by optical examination and generated reasonable backpressure, approximately 650 psi at a flow rate of 0.2 mL min⁻¹ 50:50 acetonitrile: water. The morphological properties of the monolithic columns were investigated using scanning electron microscopy images, and Brunauer-Emmett-Teller analysis, the results showed that the monolith was formed properly with 19.98 ± 0.01 mm² surface area, 0.0205 ± 0.01 cm³ g⁻¹ pore volume and 6.93 ± 0.01 nm average pore size. The polymer monolith formed was further investigated using proton nuclear magnetic resonance, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The monolithic columns were investigated using high-performance liquid chromatography to test their ability to separate different samples with a range of properties. The columns displayed both hydrophobic/hydrophilic and hydrophobic/ion exchange interactions with the compounds tested indicating that true mixed mode separations. The mixed mode monolithic columns exhibited significant separation of proteins.

Keywords: LC separation, proteins separation, monolithic column, mixed mode

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Authors: Febri Ramadhan, Sigid Hariyadi, Niken Tunjung Murti Pratiwi, Budiman Djoko Said

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The scope about maritime security copes all of the problems emanating from maritime domain. Those problems can give such threats to national security of the state. One of threats taking place nowadays in maritime domain is about pollution. Pollution coming from many sources may increase water-borne disease risk that can cause the instability of national security. Pollution coming from many sources may increase water-borne disease risk. Hence the pollution makes an improper condition of environments for humans and others biota dwelling in the waters. One of the tools that can determine about pollution is by measuring about the water quality of its waters. In this case, what brings the waste and pollutants is there an activity of tidal waves introducing substances or energy into the natural environment. Cengkareng Drain is one of the water channels which is affected by tidal waves. Cengkareng Drain was become an observation area to examine the relation between water quality and tide waves. This research was conducted monthly from July to November 2015. Sampling of water was conducted every ebb and tide in every observation. Pollution index showed that the level of pollution on Cengkareng drain was moderately polluted, with the score about 7.7-8.6. Based on the results of t-test and analysis of similarity, the characteristic of water quality on rising tide does not significantly differ from the characteristic of water quality on ebbing tide. Therefore, we need a proper management as a means to control the pollutants in order to make good maritime security strategy.

Keywords: maritime security, Cengkareng drain, water quality, tidal waves

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Authors: Deborah Eric, Abbas Ahmad Khan

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Lead halide perovskites quantum dots have attracted immense scientific and technological interest for successful photovoltaic applications because of their remarkable optoelectronic properties. In this paper, we have simulated CsMAPbI3-xBrx based quantum dots to implement their use in intermediate band solar cells (IBSC). These types of materials exhibit optical and electrical properties distinct from their bulk counterparts due to quantum confinement. The conceptual framework provides a route to analyze the electronic properties of quantum dots. This layer of quantum dots optimizes the position and bandwidth of IB that lies in the forbidden region of the conventional bandgap. A three-dimensional MAPbI3 quantum dot (QD) with geometries including spherical, cubic, and conical has been embedded in the CsPbBr3 matrix. Bound energy wavefunction gives rise to miniband, which results in the formation of IB. If there is more than one miniband, then there is a possibility of having more than one IB. The optimization of QD size results in more IBs in the forbidden region. One band time-independent Schrödinger equation using the effective mass approximation with step potential barrier is solved to compute the electronic states. Envelope function approximation with BenDaniel-Duke boundary condition is used in combination with the Schrödinger equation for the calculation of eigen energies and Eigen energies are solved for the quasi-bound states using an eigenvalue study. The transfer matrix method is used to study the quantum tunneling of MAPbI3 QD through neighbor barriers of CsPbI3. Electronic states are computed using Schrödinger equation with effective mass approximation by considering quantum dot and wetting layer assembly. Results have shown the varying the quantum dot size affects the energy pinning of QD. Changes in the ground, first, second state energies have been observed. The QD is non-zero at the center and decays exponentially to zero at boundaries. Quasi-bound states are characterized by envelope functions. It has been observed that conical quantum dots have maximum ground state energy at a small radius. Increasing the wetting layer thickness exhibits energy signatures similar to bulk material for each QD size.

Keywords: perovskite, intermediate bandgap, quantum dots, miniband formation

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Authors: Saba Gachpaz, Hamid Reza Heidari

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The sharp increase in population growth leads to more pressure on agricultural areas to satisfy the food supply. To achieve this, more resources should be consumed and, besides other environmental concerns, highlight sustainable agricultural development. Land-use management is a crucial factor in obtaining optimum productivity. Machine learning is a widely used technique in the agricultural sector, from yield prediction to customer behavior. This method focuses on learning and provides patterns and correlations from our data set. In this study, nine physical control factors, namely, soil classification, electrical conductivity, normalized difference water index (NDWI), groundwater level, elevation, annual precipitation, pH of water, annual mean temperature, and slope in the alluvial plain in Khuzestan (an agricultural hotspot in Iran) are used to decide the best agricultural land use for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture for ten different crops. For this purpose, each variable was imported into Arc GIS, and a raster layer was obtained. In the next level, by using training samples, all layers were imported into the python environment. A random forest model was applied, and the weight of each variable was specified. In the final step, results were visualized using a digital elevation model, and the importance of all factors for each one of the crops was obtained. Our results show that despite 62% of the study area being allocated to agricultural purposes, only 42.9% of these areas can be defined as a suitable class for cultivation purposes.

Keywords: land suitability, machine learning, random forest, sustainable agriculture

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Authors: Ariadna Manresa, Ines Ferrer

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Introduction: Ultrasonic moulding process (USM) is a recent injection technology used to manufacture micro components. It is able to melt small amounts of material so the waste of material is certainly reduced comparing to microinjection molding. This is an important advantage when the materials are expensive like medical biopolymers. Micro-scaled components are involved in a variety of uses, such as biomedical applications. It is required replication fidelity so it is important to stabilize the process and minimize the variability of the responses. The aim of this research is to investigate the influence of the main process parameters on the filling behaviour, the dimensional accuracy and the cavity pressure when a micro-plate is manufactured by biomaterials such as PLA and PCL. Methodology or Experimental Procedure: The specimens are manufactured using a Sonorus 1G Ultrasound Micro Molding Machine. The used geometry is a rectangular micro-plate of 15x5mm and 1mm of thickness. The materials used for the investigation are PLA and PCL due to biocompatible and degradation properties. The experimentation is divided into two phases. Firstly, the influence of process parameters (vibration amplitude, sonotrodo velocity, ultrasound time and compaction force) on filling behavior is analysed, in Phase 1. Next, when filling cavity is assured, the influence of both cooling time and force compaction on the cavity pressure, part temperature and dimensional accuracy is instigated, which is done in Phase. Results and Discussion: Filling behavior depends on sonotrodo velocity and vibration amplitude. When the ultrasonic time is higher, more ultrasonic energy is applied and the polymer temperature increases. Depending on the cooling time, it is possible that when mold is opened, the micro-plate temperature is too warm. Consequently, the polymer relieve its stored internal energy (ultrasonic and thermal) expanding through the easier direction. This fact is reflected on dimensional accuracy, causing micro-plates thicker than the mold. It has also been observed the most important fact that affects cavity pressure is the compaction configuration during the manufacturing cycle. Conclusions: This research demonstrated the influence of process parameters on the final micro-plated manufactured. Future works will be focused in manufacturing other geometries and analysing the mechanical properties of the specimens.

Keywords: biomaterial, biopolymer, micro injection molding, ultrasound

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Authors: Giorgio Bertolazzi, Panayiotis Benos, Michele Tumminello, Claudia Coronnello

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MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNAs that post-transcriptionally regulate the expression levels of messenger RNAs. MicroRNA regulation activity depends on the recognition of binding sites located on mRNA molecules. ComiR (Combinatorial miRNA targeting) is a user friendly web tool realized to predict the targets of a set of microRNAs, starting from their expression profile. ComiR incorporates miRNA expression in a thermodynamic binding model, and it associates each gene with the probability of being a target of a set of miRNAs. ComiR algorithms were trained with the information regarding binding sites in the 3’UTR region, by using a reliable dataset containing the targets of endogenously expressed microRNA in D. melanogaster S2 cells. This dataset was obtained by comparing the results from two different experimental approaches, i.e., inhibition, and immunoprecipitation of the AGO1 protein; this protein is a component of the microRNA induced silencing complex. In this work, we tested whether including coding region binding sites in the ComiR algorithm improves the performance of the tool in predicting microRNA targets. We focused the analysis on the D. melanogaster species and updated the ComiR underlying database with the currently available releases of mRNA and microRNA sequences. As a result, we find that the ComiR algorithm trained with the information related to the coding regions is more efficient in predicting the microRNA targets, with respect to the algorithm trained with 3’utr information. On the other hand, we show that 3’utr based predictions can be seen as complementary to the coding region based predictions, which suggests that both predictions, from 3'UTR and coding regions, should be considered in a comprehensive analysis. Furthermore, we observed that the lists of targets obtained by analyzing data from one experimental approach only, that is, inhibition or immunoprecipitation of AGO1, are not reliable enough to test the performance of our microRNA target prediction algorithm. Further analysis will be conducted to investigate the effectiveness of the tool with data from other species, provided that validated datasets, as obtained from the comparison of RISC proteins inhibition and immunoprecipitation experiments, will be available for the same samples. Finally, we propose to upgrade the existing ComiR web-tool by including the coding region based trained model, available together with the 3’UTR based one.

Keywords: AGO1, coding region, Drosophila melanogaster, microRNA target prediction

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Authors: L. Kanoksak, N. Sukanya, L. Napatsorn, T. Siriporn

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A growing population and demand for packaging are driving up the usage of natural resources as raw materials in the pulp and paper industry. Long-term effects of environmental is disrupting people's way of life all across the planet. Finding pulp sources to replace wood pulp is therefore necessary. To produce wood pulp, various other potential plants or plant parts can be employed as substitute raw materials. For example, pulp and paper were made from agricultural residue that mainly included pulp can be used in place of wood. In this study, cocoa pod husks were an agricultural residue of the cocoa and chocolate industries. To develop composite materials to replace wood pulp in packaging materials. The paper was coated with polybutylene adipate-co-terephthalate (PBAT). By selecting and cleaning fresh cocoa pod husks, the size was reduced. And the cocoa pod husks were dried. The morphology and elemental composition of cocoa pod husks were studied. To evaluate the mechanical and physical properties, dried cocoa husks were extracted using the soda-pulping process. After selecting the best formulations, paper with a PBAT bioplastic coating was produced on a paper-forming machine Physical and mechanical properties were studied. By using the Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscope/Energy Dispersive X-Ray Spectrometer (FESEM/EDS) technique, the structure of dried cocoa pod husks showed the main components of cocoa pod husks. The appearance of porous has not been found. The fibers were firmly bound for use as a raw material for pulp manufacturing. Dry cocoa pod husks contain the major elements carbon (C) and oxygen (O). Magnesium (Mg), potassium (K), and calcium (Ca) were minor elements that were found in very small levels. After that cocoa pod husks were removed from the soda-pulping process. It found that the SAQ5 formula produced pulp yield, moisture content, and water drainage. To achieve the basis weight by TAPPI T205 sp-02 standard, cocoa pod husk pulp and modified starch were mixed. The paper was coated with bioplastic PBAT. It was produced using bioplastic resin from the blown film extrusion technique. It showed the contact angle, dispersion component and polar component. It is an effective hydrophobic material for rigid packaging applications.

Keywords: cocoa pod husks, agricultural residue, composite material, rigid packaging

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Authors: Ziv Kassner, Gal Ribak

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Members of the Odonata order (dragonflies and damselflies) stand out for their maneuverability and superb flight control, which allow them to catch flying prey in the air. These outstanding aerial abilities were fine-tuned during millions of years of an evolutionary arms race between Odonata and their prey, providing an attractive research model for studying the relationship between sensory input – and aerodynamic output in a flying insect. The ability to catch a maneuvering target in air is interesting not just for insect behavioral ecology and neuroethology but also for designing small and efficient robotic air vehicles. While the aerial prey interception of dragonflies (suborder: Anisoptera) have been studied before, little is known about how damselflies (suborder: Zygoptera) intercept prey. Here, high-speed cameras (filming at 1000 frames per second) were used to explore how damselflies catch unpredictable targets that move through air. Blue-tailed damselflies - Ischnura elegans (family: Coenagrionidae) were introduced to a flight arena and filmed while landing on moving targets that were oscillated harmonically. The insects succeeded in capturing targets that were moved with an amplitude of 6 cm and frequencies of 0-2.5 Hz (fastest mean target speed of 0.3 m s⁻¹) and targets that were moved in 1 Hz (an average speed of 0.3 m s⁻¹) but with an amplitude of 15 cm. To land on stationary or slow targets, damselflies either flew directly to the target, or flew sideways, up to a point in which the target was fixed in the center of the field of view, followed by direct flight path towards the target. As the target moved in increased frequency, damselflies demonstrated an ability to track the targets while flying sideways and minimizing the changes of their body direction on the yaw axis. This was likely an attempt to keep the targets at the center of the visual field while minimizing rotational optic flow of the surrounding visual panorama. Stabilizing rotational optic flow helps in estimation of the velocity and distance of the target. These results illustrate how dynamic visual information is used by damselflies to guide them towards a maneuvering target, enabling the superb aerial hunting abilities of these insects. They also exemplifies the plasticity of the damselfly flight apparatus which enables flight in any direction, irrespective of the direction of the body.

Keywords: bio-mechanics, insect flight, target fixation, tracking and interception

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Authors: Charlene N. T. Mfangnia, Henri Tonnang, Berge Tsanou, Jeremy Herren

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The Microsporidia MB found in the populations of anopheles is a recently discovered symbiont responsible for the Plasmodium transmission blocking. From early studies, it was established that the symbiont can be transmitted vertically and horizontally. The present study uses compartmental mathematical modelling approach to investigate the dynamics of Microsporidia transmission in the mosquito population with the mindset of establishing a mechanism for use to control malaria. Data and information obtained from laboratory experiments are used to estimate the model parameters with and without temperature dependency of mosquito traits. We carry out the mathematical analysis focusing on the equilibria states and their stability for the autonomous model. Through the modelling experiments, we are able to assess and confirm the contribution of vertical and horizontal transmission in the proliferation of Microsporidia MB in the mosquito population. In addition, the basic and target reproductions are computed, and some long-term behaviours of the model, such as the local (and global) stability of equilibrium points, are rigorously analysed and illustrated numerically. We establish the conditions responsible for the low prevalence of the symbiont-infected mosquitoes observed in nature. Moreover, we identify the male death rate, the mating rate and the attractiveness of MB-positive mosquitoes as mosquito traits that significantly influence the spread of Microsporidia MB. Furthermore, we highlight the influence of temperature in the establishment and persistence of MB-infected mosquitoes in a given area.

Keywords: microsporidia MB, vertical transmission, horizontal transmission, compartmental modelling approach, temperature-dependent mosquito traits, malaria, plasmodium-transmission blocking

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Authors: Amirmohsen Behjat, Aleck Ostry, Christina Miewald, Bernie Pauly

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Farmers’ Markets have become one of the important healthy food suppliers in both rural communities and urban settings. Farmers’ markets are evolving and their number has rapidly increased in the past decade. Despite this drastic increase, the distribution of the farmers’ markets is not even across different areas. The main goal of this study is to explore the socioeconomic, geographic, and demographic variables which affect the establishment of farmers’ market in rural communities in British Columbia (BC). Thus, the data on available farmers’ markets in rural areas were collected from BC Association of Farmers’ Markets and spatially joined to BC map at Dissemination Area (DA) level using ArcGIS software to link the farmers’ market to the respective communities that they serve. Then, in order to investigate this issue and understand which rural communities farmer’ markets tend to operate, a binary logistic regression analysis was performed with the availability of farmer’ markets at DA-level as dependent variable and Deprivation Index (DI), Metro Influence Zone (MIZ) and population as independent variables. The results indicated that DI and MIZ variables are not statistically significant whereas the population is the only which had a significant contribution in predicting the availability of farmers’ markets in rural BC. Moreover, this study found that farmers’ markets usually do not operate in rural food deserts where other healthy food providers such as supermarkets and grocery stores are non-existent. In conclusion, the presence of farmers markets is not associated with socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of rural communities in BC, but farmers’ markets tend to operate in more populated rural communities in BC.

Keywords: farmers’ markets, socioeconomic and demographic variables, metro influence zone, logistic regression, ArcGIS

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Authors: Marco Furinghetti, Alberto Pavese, Michele Rinaldi

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Concave Surface Slider devices have been more and more used in real applications for seismic protection of both bridge and building structures. Several research activities have been carried out, in order to investigate the lateral response of such a typology of devices, and a reasonably high level of knowledge has been reached. If radial analysis is performed, the frictional force is always aligned with respect to the restoring force, whereas under bidirectional seismic events, a bi-axial interaction of the directions of motion occurs, due to the step-wise projection of the main frictional force, which is assumed to be aligned to the trajectory of the isolator. Nonetheless, if non-linear time history analyses have to be performed, standard codes provide precise rules for the definition of an averagely spectrum-compatible set of accelerograms in radial conditions, whereas for bidirectional motions different combinations of the single components spectra can be found. Moreover, nowadays software for the adjustment of natural accelerograms are available, which lead to a higher quality of spectrum-compatibility and to a smaller dispersion of results for radial motions. In this endeavor a simplified design procedure is defined, for building structures, base-isolated by means of Concave Surface Slider devices. Different case study structures have been analyzed. In a first stage, the capacity curve has been computed, by means of non-linear static analyses on the fixed-base structures: inelastic fiber elements have been adopted and different direction angles of lateral forces have been studied. Thanks to these results, a linear elastic Finite Element Model has been defined, characterized by the same global stiffness of the linear elastic branch of the non-linear capacity curve. Then, non-linear time history analyses have been performed on the base-isolated structures, by applying seven bidirectional seismic events. The spectrum-compatibility of bidirectional earthquakes has been studied, by considering different combinations of single components and adjusting single records: thanks to the proposed procedure, results have shown a small dispersion and a good agreement in comparison to the assumed design values.

Keywords: concave surface slider, spectrum-compatibility, bidirectional earthquake, base isolation

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Authors: Rosa Suryantini, Reine S. Wulandari, Slamet Rifanjani

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Acacia (Acacia mangium) is a forest plant species which is produced to pulp and paper. The high demand for pulp and paper increase the acacia plantation forest area. However, the outbreak of Ganoderma (root rot pathogen) infection becomes obstacles for the development of acacia plantations. This is due to the extent of host range and species of Ganoderma. Ganoderma has also the ability to survive the long-term without hosts. The diversity of the host and Ganoderma species affects its virulence. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the virulence of Ganoderma from different hosts (acacia, palm oil (Elaeis guineensis) and rubber (Hevea brasiliensis)). The methods were isolation and morphology identification of Ganoderma, and inoculation of Ganoderma isolates on acacia seedlings. The results showed that the three isolates of Ganoderma from different hosts had a morphological similarity with G. Lucidum (according to Ganoderma isolated from acacia or G1), G. boninense (according to Ganoderma isolated from palm oil or G2) and G. applanatum (according to Ganoderma isolated from rubber or G3). Symptoms of infection in acacia were seen at 3 months of age. The symptoms were begun with chlorosis, necrosis and death of seedlings (such as burning). Necrosis was started from the tip of the leaf. Based on this visible symptoms, G1 was moderate virulence isolate and G2 was low virulence isolate while G3 was avirulen isolate. The symptoms were still growing in accordance with the development of plant so it affected the value of diseases severity index. Ganoderma infection decreased the dry weight of seedlings, ie. 3.82 g (seedlings that were inoculated by G1), 4.01 g (seedlings that were inoculated by G2); and 5.02 g (seedlings that were inoculated by G3) when the dry weight of seedlings control was 10,02 g. These results provide information for early control of Ganoderma diseases on acacia especially those planted near rubber and oil palm crops.

Keywords: Acacia, Ganoderma, infection, virulence

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Authors: Bagnoud-Velásquez Mariluz, Damergi Eya, Grandjean Dominique, Frédéric Vogel, Ludwig Christian

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The sustainability of algae to biofuel processes is seriously affected by the energy intensive production of fertilizers. Large amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus are required for a large-scale production resulting in many cases in a negative impact of the limited mineral resources. In order to meet the algal bioenergy opportunity it appears crucial the promotion of processes applying a nutrient recovery and/or making use of renewable sources including waste. Hydrothermal (HT) conversion is a promising and suitable technology for microalgae to generate biofuels. Besides the fact that water is used as a “green” reactant and solvent and that no biomass drying is required, the technology offers a great potential for nutrient recycling. This study evaluated the possibility to treat the water HT effluent by the growth of microalgae while producing renewable algal biomass. As already demonstrated in previous works by the authors, the HT aqueous product besides having N, P and other important nutrients, presents a small fraction of organic compounds rarely studied. Therefore, extracted heteroaromatic compounds in the HT effluent were the target of the present research; they were profiled using GC-MS and LC-MS-MS. The results indicate the presence of cyclic amides, piperazinediones, amines and their derivatives. The most prominent nitrogenous organic compounds (NOC’s) in the extracts were carefully examined by their effect on microalgae, namely 2-pyrrolidinone and β-phenylethylamine (β-PEA). These two substances were prepared at three different concentrations (10, 50 and 150 ppm). This toxicity bioassay used three different microalgae strains: Phaeodactylum tricornutum, Chlorella sorokiniana and Scenedesmus vacuolatus. The confirmed IC50 was for all cases ca. 75ppm. Experimental conditions were set up for the growth of microalgae in the aqueous phase by adjusting the nitrogen concentration (the key nutrient for algae) to fit that one established for a known commercial medium. The values of specific NOC’s were lowered at concentrations of 8.5 mg/L 2-pyrrolidinone; 1mg/L δ-valerolactam and 0.5 mg/L β-PEA. The growth with the diluted HT solution was kept constant with no inhibition evidence. An additional ongoing test is addressing the possibility to apply an integrated water cleanup step making use of the existent hydrothermal catalytic facility.

Keywords: hydrothermal process, microalgae, nitrogenous organic compounds, nutrient recovery, renewable biomass

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Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang

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How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.

Keywords: financial bubble detection, future return, forecasting, pairs trading, preferred stocks

Procedia PDF Downloads 352