Search results for: ACR criteria
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2684

Search results for: ACR criteria

1574 The Safe Introduction of Tocilizumab for the Treatment of SARS-CoV-2 Pneumonia at an East London District General Hospital

Authors: Andrew Read, Alice Parry, Kate Woods

Abstract:

Since the advent of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the search for medications that can reduce mortality and morbidity has been a global research priority. Several multi-center trials have recently demonstrated improved mortality associated with the use of Tocilizumab, an interleukin-6 receptor antagonist, in patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. Initial data supported the administration in patients requiring respiratory support (non-invasive or invasive ventilation), but more recent data has shown benefit in all hypoxic patients. At the height of the second wave of COVID-19 infections in London, our hospital introduced the use of Tocilizumab for patients with severe COVID-19. Tocilizumab is licensed for use in chronic inflammatory conditions and has been associated with an increased risk of severe bacterial and fungal infections, as well as reactivation of chronic viral infections (e.g., hepatitis B). It is a specialist drug that suppresses the formation of C-reactive protein (CRP) for 6 – 12 weeks. It is not widely used by the general medical community. We aimed to assess Tocilizumab use in our hospital and to implement changes to the protocol as required to ensure administration was safe and appropriate. A retrospective study design was used to assess prescriptions over an initial 3-week period in both intensive care and on the medical wards. This amounted to a total of 13 patients. The initial data collection identified four key areas of concern: adherence to national and local inclusion & exclusion criteria; a collection of appropriate screening blood prior to administration; documentation of informed consent or best interest decision and documentation of Tocilizumab administration on patient discharge information, to alert future healthcare providers that typical measures of inflammation and infection, such as CRP, are unreliable for up to 3-months. Data were collected from electronic notes, blood results and observation charts, and cross referenced with pharmacy data. Initial results showed that all four key areas were completed in approximately 50% of cases. Of particular concern was adherence to exclusion criteria, such as current evidence of bacterial infection, and ensuring the correct screening blood was sent to exclude infections such as hepatitis. To remedy this and improve patient safety, the initial data was presented to relevant healthcare professionals. Subsequently, three interventions were introduced and education on each provided to hospital staff. An electronic ‘order set’ collating the appropriate screening blood was created simplifying the screening process. Pre-formed electronic documentation which can be inserted into the notes was created to provide a framework for consent discussions and reduce the time needed for junior doctors to complete this task. Additionally, a ‘Tocilizumab’ administration card was created and administered via pharmacy. This was distributed to each patient on discharge to ensure future healthcare professionals were aware of the potential effects of Tocilizumab administration, including suppression of CRP. Following these changes, repeat data collection over two months illustrated that each of the 4 safety aspects was met with a 100% success rate in every patient. Although this demonstrates good progress and effective interventions the challenge will be to maintain this progress. The audit data collection is ongoing

Keywords: education, patient safety , SARS-CoV-2, Tocilizumab

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1573 The Use of Stochastic Gradient Boosting Method for Multi-Model Combination of Rainfall-Runoff Models

Authors: Phanida Phukoetphim, Asaad Y. Shamseldin

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In this study, the novel Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) combination method is addressed for producing daily river flows from four different rain-runoff models of Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The selected rainfall-runoff models are two empirical black-box models: linear perturbation model and linear varying gain factor model, two conceptual models: soil moisture accounting and routing model and Nedbør-Afrstrømnings model. In this study, the simple average combination method and the weighted average combination method were used as a benchmark for comparing the results of the novel SGB combination method. The models and combination results are evaluated using statistical and graphical criteria. Overall results of this study show that the use of combination technique can certainly improve the simulated river flows of four selected models for Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The results also indicate that the novel SGB combination method is capable of accurate prediction when used in a combination method of the simulated river flows in New Zealand.

Keywords: multi-model combination, rainfall-runoff modeling, stochastic gradient boosting, bioinformatics

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1572 Improvement of Cross Range Resolution in Through Wall Radar Imaging Using Bilateral Backprojection

Authors: Rashmi Yadawad, Disha Narayanan, Ravi Gautam

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Through Wall Radar Imaging is gaining increasing importance now a days in the field of Defense and one of the most important criteria that forms the basis for the image quality obtained is the Cross-Range resolution of the image. In this research paper, the Bilateral Back projection algorithm has been implemented for Through Wall Radar Imaging. The sole purpose is to enhance the resolution in the cross range direction of the obtained Back projection image. Synthetic Data is generated for two targets which are placed at various locations in a room of dimensions 8 m by 6m. Two algorithms namely, simple back projection and Bilateral Back projection have been implemented, images are obtained and the obtained images are compared. Numerical simulations have been coded in MATLAB and experimental results of the two algorithms have been shown. Based on the comparison between the two images, it can be clearly seen that the ringing effect and chess board effect have been heavily reduced in the bilaterally back projected image and hence promising results are obtained giving a relatively sharper image with relatively well defined edges.

Keywords: through wall radar imaging, bilateral back projection, cross range resolution, synthetic data

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1571 Corporate Governance Mechanisms, Whistle-Blowing Policy and Earnings Management Practices of Firms in Malaysia

Authors: Mujeeb Saif Mohsen Al-Absy, Ku Nor Izah Ku Ismail, Sitraselvi Chandren

Abstract:

This study examines whether corporate governance (CG) mechanisms in firms that have a whistle-blowing policy (WHBLP) are more effective in constraining earnings management (EM), than those without. A sample of 288 Malaysian firms for the years 2013 to 2015, amounting to 864 firm-years were grouped into firms with and without WHBLP. Results show that for firms without WHBLP, the board chairman tenure would minimize EM activities. Meanwhile, for firms with WHBLP, board chairman independence, board chairman tenure, audit committee size, audit committee meeting and women in the audit committees are found to be associated with less EM activities. Further, it is found that ownership concentration and Big 4 auditing firms help to reduce EM activities in firms with WHBLP, while not in firms without WHBLP. Hence, functional and effective governance can be achieved by having a WHBLP, which is in line with agency and resource dependent theories. Therefore, this study suggests that firms should have a WHBLP in place, and policymakers should come up with enhanced criteria to strengthen the mechanisms of WHBLP.

Keywords: corporate governance, earnings management, whistle-blowing policy, audit committee, board of directors

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1570 Intermittent Demand Forecast in Telecommunication Service Provider by Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Widyani Fatwa Dewi, Subroto Athor

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In a telecommunication service provider, quantity and interval of customer demand often difficult to predict due to high dependency on customer expansion strategy and technological development. Demand arrives when a customer needs to add capacity to an existing site or build a network in a new site. Because demand is uncertain for each period, and sometimes there is a null demand for several equipments, it is categorized as intermittent. This research aims to improve demand forecast quality in Indonesia's telecommunication service providers by using Artificial Neural Network. In Artificial Neural Network, the pattern or relationship within data will be analyzed using the training process, followed by the learning process as validation stage. Historical demand data for 36 periods is used to support this research. It is found that demand forecast by using Artificial Neural Network outperforms the existing method if it is reviewed on two criteria: the forecast accuracy, using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean of the sum of the Squares of the Forecasting Error (MSE), Mean Error (ME) and service level which is shown through inventory cost. This research is expected to increase the reference for a telecommunication demand forecast, which is currently still limited.

Keywords: artificial neural network, demand forecast, forecast accuracy, intermittent, service level, telecommunication

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1569 Maternal Smoking and Risk of Childhood Overweight and Obesity: A Meta-Analysis

Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac J. W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

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The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of maternal smoking for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, smoking, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eighteen studies of maternal smoking during pregnancy and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that maternal smoking during pregnancy is a significant risk factor for overweight and obesity; mothers who smoke during pregnancy are at a greater risk for developing obesity or overweight; the quantity of cigarettes consumed by the mother during pregnancy influenced the odds of offspring overweight and/or obesity. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: childhood obesity, overweight, smoking, parents, risk factors

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1568 Geographic Information System Based Multi-Criteria Subsea Pipeline Route Optimisation

Authors: James Brown, Stella Kortekaas, Ian Finnie, George Zhang, Christine Devine, Neil Healy

Abstract:

The use of GIS as an analysis tool for engineering decision making is now best practice in the offshore industry. GIS enables multidisciplinary data integration, analysis and visualisation which allows the presentation of large and intricate datasets in a simple map-interface accessible to all project stakeholders. Presenting integrated geoscience and geotechnical data in GIS enables decision makers to be well-informed. This paper is a successful case study of how GIS spatial analysis techniques were applied to help select the most favourable pipeline route. Routing a pipeline through any natural environment has numerous obstacles, whether they be topographical, geological, engineering or financial. Where the pipeline is subjected to external hydrostatic water pressure and is carrying pressurised hydrocarbons, the requirement to safely route the pipeline through hazardous terrain becomes absolutely paramount. This study illustrates how the application of modern, GIS-based pipeline routing techniques enabled the identification of a single most-favourable pipeline route crossing of a challenging seabed terrain. Conventional approaches to pipeline route determination focus on manual avoidance of primary constraints whilst endeavouring to minimise route length. Such an approach is qualitative, subjective and is liable to bias towards the discipline and expertise that is involved in the routing process. For very short routes traversing benign seabed topography in shallow water this approach may be sufficient, but for deepwater geohazardous sites, the need for an automated, multi-criteria, and quantitative approach is essential. This study combined multiple routing constraints using modern least-cost-routing algorithms deployed in GIS, hitherto unachievable with conventional approaches. The least-cost-routing procedure begins with the assignment of geocost across the study area. Geocost is defined as a numerical penalty score representing hazard posed by each routing constraint (e.g. slope angle, rugosity, vulnerability to debris flows) to the pipeline. All geocosted routing constraints are combined to generate a composite geocost map that is used to compute the least geocost route between two defined terminals. The analyses were applied to select the most favourable pipeline route for a potential gas development in deep water. The study area is geologically complex with a series of incised, potentially active, canyons carved into a steep escarpment, with evidence of extensive debris flows. A similar debris flow in the future could cause significant damage to a poorly-placed pipeline. Protruding inter-canyon spurs offer lower-gradient options for ascending an escarpment but the vulnerability of periodic failure of these spurs is not well understood. Close collaboration between geoscientists, pipeline engineers, geotechnical engineers and of course the gas export pipeline operator guided the analyses and assignment of geocosts. Shorter route length, less severe slope angles, and geohazard avoidance were the primary drivers in identifying the most favourable route.

Keywords: geocost, geohazard, pipeline route determination, pipeline route optimisation, spatial analysis

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1567 Using Data-Driven Model on Online Customer Journey

Authors: Ing-Jen Hung, Tzu-Chien Wang

Abstract:

Nowadays, customers can interact with firms through miscellaneous online ads on different channels easily. In other words, customer now has innumerable options and limitless time to accomplish their commercial activities with firms, individualizing their own online customer journey. This kind of convenience emphasizes the importance of online advertisement allocation on different channels. Therefore, profound understanding of customer behavior can make considerable benefit from optimizing fund allocation on diverse ad channels. To achieve this objective, multiple firms utilize numerical methodology to create data-driven advertisement policy. In our research, we aim to exploit online customer click data to discover the correlations between each channel and their sequential relations. We use LSTM to deal with sequential property of our data and compare its accuracy with other non-sequential methods, such as CART decision tree, logistic regression, etc. Besides, we also classify our customers into several groups by their behavioral characteristics to perceive the differences between all groups as customer portrait. As a result, we discover distinct customer journey under each customer portrait. Our article provides some insights into marketing research and can help firm to formulate online advertising criteria.

Keywords: LSTM, customer journey, marketing, channel ads

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1566 Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis Based Maintenance Planning through Traditional and Multi-Criteria Decision Making Approach for Aluminium Wire Rolling Mill Plant

Authors: Nilesh Pancholi, Mangal Bhatt

Abstract:

This paper highlights comparative results of traditional FMECA and multi-factor decision-making approach based on “Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)” for aluminum wire rolling mill plant. The suggested study is carried out to overcome the limitations of FMECA by assigning the scores against each failure modes in crisp values to evaluate the criticalities of the failure modes without uncertainty. The primary findings of the paper are that sudden impact on the rolls seems to be most critical failure cause and high contact stresses due to rolling & sliding action of mesh to be least critical failure cause. It is suggested to modify the current control practices with proper maintenance strategy based on achieved maintainability criticality index (MCI). The outcome of the study will be helpful in deriving optimized maintenance plan to maximize the performance of continuous process industry.

Keywords: reliability, maintenance, FMECA, TOPSIS, process industry

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1565 Numerical Study of Dynamic Buckling of Fiber Metal Laminates's Profile

Authors: Monika Kamocka, Radoslaw Mania

Abstract:

The design of Fiber Metal Laminates - combining thin aluminum sheets and prepreg layers, allows creating a hybrid structure with high strength to weight ratio. This feature makes FMLs very attractive for aerospace industry, where thin-walled structures are commonly used. Nevertheless, those structures are prone to buckling phenomenon. Buckling could occur also under static load as well as dynamic pulse loads. In this paper, the problem of dynamic buckling of open cross-section FML profiles under axial dynamic compression in the form of pulse load of finite duration is investigated. In the numerical model, material properties of FML constituents were assumed as nonlinear elastic-plastic aluminum and linear-elastic glass-fiber-reinforced composite. The influence of pulse shape was investigated. Sinusoidal and rectangular pulse loads of finite duration were compared in two ways, i.e. with respect to magnitude and force pulse. The dynamic critical buckling load was determined based on Budiansky-Hutchinson, Ari Gur, and Simonetta dynamic buckling criteria.

Keywords: dynamic buckling, dynamic stability, Fiber Metal Laminate, Finite Element Method

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1564 An Investigation on Overstrength Factor (Ω) of Reinforced Concrete Buildings in Turkish Earthquake Draft Code (TEC-2016)

Authors: M. Hakan Arslan, I. Hakkı Erkan

Abstract:

Overstrength factor is an important parameter of load reduction factor. In this research, the overstrength factor (Ω) of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings and the parameters of Ω in TEC-2016 draft version have been explored. For this aim, 48 RC buildings have been modeled according to the current seismic code TEC-2007 and Turkish Building Code-500-2000 criteria. After modelling step, nonlinear static pushover analyses have been applied to these buildings by using TEC-2007 Section 7. After the nonlinear pushover analyses, capacity curves (lateral load-lateral top displacement curves) have been plotted for 48 RC buildings. Using capacity curves, overstrength factors (Ω) have been derived for each building. The obtained overstrength factor (Ω) values have been compared with TEC-2016 values for related building types, and the results have been interpreted. According to the obtained values from the study, overstrength factor (Ω) given in TEC-2016 draft code is found quite suitable.

Keywords: reinforced concrete buildings, overstrength factor, earthquake, static pushover analysis

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1563 Difficulties Posed by Disability on the Acquisition of Higher Education in Inclusive Setting by Physically Challenged Students

Authors: G. Fatima, R. Bashir, M. Saeed Akhtar, M. Malik, M. Safder, D. Nayab

Abstract:

The main purpose of this quantitative study was to investigate challenges and difficulties being encountered by physically challenged students in inclusive settings at higher education level. A self-developed and validated questionnaire (Cronbach alpha: 0.879) was employed for data collected from a sample of fifty six (56) graduate and continuing students with physical disabilities (males:46, females:10) selected through snow ball sampling technique from colleges and universities of Pakistan. The participants were required to respond on three point criteria (no, to some extent, yes). Data were analyzed by using SPSS. Independent sample t-test and One Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was run to compare mean scores of responses of physically challenged students on the basis of their gender, education, types of physical disability, types of institutions, provinces, and status. Frequencies were run to have an overall picture of challenges faced by physically challenged students. Major findings reflected that physically challenged students were encountering problems in transportation, accessibility, and financial support, etc. Conclusions were drawn and recommendations were made.

Keywords: physically challenged students, inclusive setting, higher education, accessibility

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1562 3D Frictionless Contact Case between the Structure of E-Bike and the Ground

Authors: Lele Zhang, Hui Leng Choo, Alexander Konyukhov, Shuguang Li

Abstract:

China is currently the world's largest producer and distributor of electric bicycle (e-bike). The increasing number of e-bikes on the road is accompanied by rising injuries and even deaths of e-bike drivers. Therefore, there is a growing need to improve the safety structure of e-bikes. This 3D frictionless contact analysis is a preliminary, but necessary work for further structural design improvement of an e-bike. The contact analysis between e-bike and the ground was carried out as follows: firstly, the Penalty method was illustrated and derived from the simplest spring-mass system. This is one of the most common methods to satisfy the frictionless contact case; secondly, ANSYS static analysis was carried out to verify finite element (FE) models with contact pair (without friction) between e-bike and the ground; finally, ANSYS transient analysis was used to obtain the data of the penetration p(u) of e-bike with respect to the ground. Results obtained from the simulation are as estimated by comparing with that from theoretical method. In the future, protective shell will be designed following the stability criteria and added to the frame of e-bike. Simulation of side falling of the improved safety structure of e-bike will be confirmed with experimental data.

Keywords: frictionless contact, penalty method, e-bike, finite element

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1561 Isolation and Identification of Biosurfactant Producing Microorganism for Bioaugmentation

Authors: Karthick Gopalan, Selvamohan Thankiah

Abstract:

Biosurfactants are lipid compounds produced by microbes, which are amphipathic molecules consisting of hydrophophic and hydrophilic domains. In the present investigation, ten bacterial strains were isolated from petroleum oil contaminated sites near petrol bunk. Oil collapsing test, haemolytic activity were used as a criteria for primary isolation of biosurfactant producing bacteria. In this study, all the bacterial strains gave positive results. Among the ten strains, two were observed as good biosurfactant producers, they utilize the diesel as a sole carbon source. Optimization of biosurfactant producing bacteria isolated from petroleum oil contaminated sites was carried out using different parameters such as, temperature (20ºC, 25ºC, 30ºC, 37ºC and 45ºC), pH (5,6,7,8 & 9) and nitrogen sources (ammonium chloride, ammonium carbonate and sodium nitrate). Biosurfactants produced by bacteria were extracted, dried and quantified. As a result of optimization of parameters the suitable values for the production of more amount of biosurfactant by the isolated bacterial species was observed as 30ºC (0.543 gm/lt) in the pH 7 (0.537 gm/lt) with ammonium nitrate (0.431 gm/lt) as sole carbon source.

Keywords: isolation and identification, biosurfactant, microorganism, bioaugmentation

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1560 Proposal of Methodology Based on Technical Characterization and Quantitative Contrast of Co₂ Emissions for the Migration to Electric Mobility of the Vehicle Fleet: Case Study of Electric Companies in Ecuador

Authors: Rodrigo I. Ullauri, Santiago E. Tinajero, Omar O. Ramos, Paola R. Quintana

Abstract:

The increase of CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere and its impact on climate change is a global concern. The transportation sector is a significant consumer of fossil fuels and contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. The current challenge is to find ways to reduce the use of fossil fuels in transportation. In Ecuador, where 92% of electricity is generated from clean sources, the concept of e-mobility is considered an attractive alternative to address the challenge of sustainable mobility. The proposal is to migrate from combustion-powered vehicles to electric vehicles in the electric companies of Ecuador, using a methodology to standardize criteria, determine specific requirements, contrast technical characteristics, and estimate emission reductions. The results showed that there are three categories of vehicles that have electric counterparts suitable for performing activities under certain operation parameters inherent to current technology limitations but with a significant contribution to the reduction of annual CO₂ emissions.

Keywords: climate change, electro mobility, energy, sustainable transportation

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1559 Effects, Causes, and Prevention of Teen Dating Violence

Authors: Isabel Jones

Abstract:

As adolescence is a formative time, experiences during adolescence often affect the rest of one’s life. Therefore, dating, specifically violence in dating, can have lasting effects on the rest of one’s life. In order to find sources, searches were conducted on PsycINFO, specifically EBSCO, and narrowed down under the criteria that the source contained information about adolescent dating violence rather than adult, and focused on causes, effects, or prevention methods. This literature review examines research regarding the effects and causes of TDV, and then what methods are effective in the prevention of TDV development. This will allow for a clear image of how these prevention methods are effective and why they are important. Effects of TDV extend beyond the physical, including psychological and sexual long-lasting effects. These are caused by a number of concepts, including learned behavior, inhibitory issues/substance abuse, and cultural factors. When both of these are taken into account, preventative measures such as school-based interventions, parental/adult monitoring, and the presence of positive family examples are more clear as to their effectiveness. This literature review may provide further awareness to this public health crisis and give the public a view of how adolescents are affected by TDV on their path from child to adult.

Keywords: adolescence, dating violence, risk factors, predictors, relationship

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1558 The Role of Uncertainty in the Integration of Environmental Parameters in Energy System Modeling

Authors: Alexander de Tomás, Miquel Sierra, Stefan Pfenninger, Francesco Lombardi, Ines Campos, Cristina Madrid

Abstract:

Environmental parameters are key in the definition of sustainable energy systems yet excluded from most energy system optimization models. Still, decision-making may be misleading without considering them. Environmental analyses of the energy transition are a key part of industrial ecology but often are performed without any input from the users of the information. This work assesses the systemic impacts of energy transition pathways in Portugal. Using the Calliope energy modeling framework, 250+ optimized energy system pathways are generated. A Delphi study helps to identify the relevant criteria for the stakeholders as regards the environmental assessment, which is performed with ENBIOS, a python package that integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) with a metabolic analysis based on complex relations. Furthermore, this study focuses on how the uncertainty propagates through the model’s consortium. With the aim of doing so, a soft link between the Calliope/ENBIOS cascade and Brightway’s data capabilities is built to perform Monte Carlo simulations. These findings highlight the relevance of including uncertainty analysis as a range of values rather than informing energy transition results with a single value.

Keywords: energy transition, energy modeling, uncertainty, sustainability

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1557 The Role of Pulmonary Resection in Complicated Primary Pediatric Pulmonary Tuberculosis: An Evidence-Based Case Report

Authors: Hendra Wibowo, Suprayitno Wardoyo, Dhama Shinta

Abstract:

Introduction: Pediatric pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) incidence was increasing, with many undetected cases. In complicated TB, treatment should consist of returning pulmonary function, preventing further complications, and eliminating bacteria. Complicated TB management was still controversial, and surgery was one of the treatments that should be evaluated in accordance with its role in the treatment of complicated TB. Method: This study was an evidence-based case report. The database used for the literature search were Cochrane, Medline, Proquest, and ScienceDirect. Keywords for the search were ‘primary pulmonary tuberculosis’, ‘surgery’, ‘lung resection’, and ‘children’. Inclusion criteria were studies in English or Indonesian, with children under 18 years old as subject, and full-text articles available. The assessment was done according to Oxford Centre for evidence-based medicine 2011. Results: Six cohort studies were analyzed. Surgery was indicated for patients with complicated TB that were unresponsive towards treatment. It should be noted that the experiments were done before the standard WHO antituberculosis therapy was applied; thus, the result may be different from the current application. Conclusion: Currently, there was no guideline on pulmonary resection. However, surgery yielded better mortality and morbidity in children with complicated pulmonary TB.

Keywords: pediatric, pulmonary, surgery, therapy, tuberculosis

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1556 Unified Assessment of Power System Reserve-based Reliability Levels

Authors: B. M. Alshammari, M. A. El-Kady

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This paper presents a unified framework for assessment of reserve-based reliability levels in electric power systems. The unified approach is based on reserve-based analysis and assessment of the relationship between available generation capacities and required demand levels. The developed approach takes into account the load variations as well as contingencies which occur randomly causing some generation and/or transmission capacities to be lost (become unavailable). The calculated reserve based indices, which are important to assess the reserve capabilities of the power system for various operating scenarios are therefore probabilistic in nature. They reflect the fact that neither the load levels nor the generation or transmission capacities are known with absolute certainty. They are rather subjects to random variations and consequently. The calculated reserve-based reliability indices are all subjects to random variations where only expected values of these indices can be evaluated. This paper presents a unified approach to reserve-based reliability assessment of power systems using various reserve assessment criteria. Practical applications are also presented for demonstration purposes to the Saudi electricity power grid.

Keywords: assessment, power system, reserve, reliability

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1555 Cost Analysis of Hybrid Wind Energy Generating System Considering CO2 Emissions

Authors: M. A. Badr, M. N. El Kordy, A. N. Mohib, M. M. Ibrahim

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The basic objective of the research is to study the effect of hybrid wind energy on the cost of generated electricity considering the cost of reduction CO2 emissions. The system consists of small wind turbine(s), storage battery bank and a diesel generator (W/D/B). Using an optimization software package, different system configurations are investigated to reach optimum configuration based on the net present cost (NPC) and cost of energy (COE) as economic optimization criteria. The cost of avoided CO2 is taken into consideration. The system is intended to supply the electrical load of a small community (gathering six families) in a remote Egyptian area. The investigated system is not connected to the electricity grid and may replace an existing conventional diesel powered electric supply system to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. The simulation results showed that W/D energy system is more economic than diesel alone. The estimated COE is 0.308$/kWh and extracting the cost of avoided CO2, the COE reached 0.226 $/kWh which is an external benefit of wind turbine, as there are no pollutant emissions through operational phase.

Keywords: hybrid wind turbine systems, remote areas electrification, simulation of hybrid energy systems, techno-economic study

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1554 Developing a Sustainable Transit Planning Index Using Analytical Hierarchy Process Method for ZEB Implementation in Canada

Authors: Mona Ghafouri-Azar, Sara Diamond, Jeremy Bowes, Grace Yuan, Aimee Burnett, Michelle Wyndham-West, Sara Wagner, Anand Pariyarath

Abstract:

Transportation is the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. In Canada, it is responsible for 23% of total CO2emissions from fuel combustion, and emissions from the transportation sector are the second largest source of emissions after the oil and gas sector. Currently, most Canadian public transportation systems rely on buses that operateon fossil fuels.Canada is currently investing billions of dollars to replacediesel buses with electric busesas this isperceived to have a significant impact on climate mitigation. This paper focuses on the possible impacts of zero emission buses (ZEB) on sustainable development, considering three dimensions of sustainability; environmental quality, economic growth, and social development.A sustainable transportation system is one that is safe, affordable, accessible, efficient, and resilient and that contributes minimal emissions of carbon and other pollutants.To enable implementation of these goals, relevant indicators were selected and defined that measure progress towards a sustainable transportation system. These were drawn from Canadian and international examples. Studies compare different European cities in terms of development, sustainability, and infrastructures, by using transport performance indicators. A Normalized Transport Sustainability index measures and compares policies in different urban areas and allows fine-tuning of policies. Analysts use a number ofmethods for sustainable analysis, like cost-benefit analysis (CBA) toassess economic benefit, life-cycle assessment (LCA) to assess social, economic, and environment factors and goals, and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) analysis which can comparediffering stakeholder preferences.A multi criteria decision making approach is an appropriate methodology to plan and evaluate sustainable transit development and to provide insights and meaningful information for decision makers and transit agencies. It is essential to develop a system thataggregates specific discrete indices to assess the sustainability of transportation systems.Theseprioritize indicators appropriate for the differentCanadian transit system agencies and theirpreferences and requirements. This studywill develop an integrating index that alliesexistingdiscrete indexes to supporta reliable comparison between the current transportation system (diesel buses) and the new ZEB system emerging in Canada. As a first step, theindexes for each category are selected, and the index matrix constructed. Second, the selected indicators arenormalized to remove anyinconsistency between them. Next, the normalized matrix isweighted based on the relative importance of each index to the main domains of sustainability using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method. This is accomplished through expert judgement around the relative importance of different attributes with respect to the goals through apairwise comparison matrix. The considerationof multiple environmental, economic, and social factors (including equity and health) is integrated intoa sustainable transit planning index (STPI) which supportsrealistic ZEB implementation in Canada and beyond and is useful to different stakeholders, agencies, and ministries.

Keywords: zero emission buses, sustainability, sustainable transit, transportation, analytical hierarchy process, environment, economy, social

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1553 Evaluation of the Enablers of Industry 4.0 in the Ready-Made Garments Sector of Bangladesh: A Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process Approach

Authors: Shihab-Uz-Zaman Shah, Sanjeeb Roy, Habiba Akter

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Keeping the high impact of the Ready-Made Garments (RMG) on the country’s economic growth in mind, this research paves a way for the implementation of Industry 4.0 in the garments industry of Bangladesh. At present, Industry 4.0 is a common buzzword representing the adoption of digital technologies in the production process to transform the existing industries into smart factories and create a great change in the global value chain. The RMG industry is the largest industrial sector of Bangladesh which provides 12.26% to its National GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The work starts with identifying possible enablers of Industry 4.0. To evaluate the enablers, a Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) procedure named Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) was used. A questionnaire was developed as a part of a survey for collecting and analyzing expert opinions from relevant academicians and industrialists. The responses were eventually used as the input for the FAHP which helped to assign weight matrices to the enablers. This weight matrix indicated the level of importance of these enablers. The full paper will discuss the way of a successful evaluation of the enablers and implementation of Industry 4.0 by using these enablers.

Keywords: enablers, fuzzy AHP, industry 4.0, RMG sector

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1552 Rationalized Haar Transforms Approach to Design of Observer for Control Systems with Unknown Inputs

Authors: Joon-Hoon Park

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The fundamental concept of observability is important in both theoretical and practical points of modern control systems. In modern control theory, a control system has criteria for determining the design solution exists for the system parameters and design objectives. The idea of observability relates to the condition of observing or estimating the state variables from the output variables that is generally measurable. To design closed-loop control system, the practical problems of implementing the feedback of the state variables must be considered and implementing state feedback control problem has been existed in this case. All the state variables are not available, so it is requisite to design and implement an observer that will estimate the state variables form the output parameters. However sometimes unknown inputs are presented in control systems as practical cases. This paper presents a design method and algorithm for observer of control system with unknown input parameters based on Rationalized Haar transform. The proposed method is more advantageous than the other numerical method.

Keywords: orthogonal functions, rationalized Haar transforms, control system observer, algebraic method

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1551 The Influence of Design Complexity of a Building Structure on the Expected Performance

Authors: Ormal Lishi

Abstract:

This research presents a computationally efficient probabilistic method to assess the performance of compartmentation walls with similar Fire Resistance Levels (FRL) but varying complexity. Specifically, a masonry brick wall and a light-steel framed (LSF) wall with comparable insulation performance are analyzed. A Monte Carlo technique, employing Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is utilized to quantify uncertainties and determine the probability of failure for both walls exposed to standard and parametric fires, following ISO 834 and Eurocodes guidelines. Results show that the probability of failure for the brick masonry wall under standard fire exposure is estimated at 4.8%, while the LSF wall is 7.6%. These probabilities decrease to 0.4% and 4.8%, respectively, when subjected to parametric fires. Notably, the complex LSF wall exhibits higher variability in predicting time to failure for specific criteria compared to the less complex brick wall, especially at higher temperatures. The proposed approach highlights the need for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to accurately evaluate the reliability and safety levels of complex designs.

Keywords: design complexity, probability of failure, monte carlo analysis, compartmentation walls, insulation

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1550 Family History of Obesity and Risk of Childhood Overweight and Obesity: A Meta-Analysis

Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac J. W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of history of obesity for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, family history, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eleven studies of family history and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that family history of obesity is a significant risk factor of overweight and /or obesity in offspring; risk for offspring overweight and/or obesity associated with family history varies depending of the family members included in the analysis; and when family history of obesity is present, the offspring are at greater risk for developing obesity or overweight. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: childhood obesity, overweight, family history, risk factors, meta-analysis

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1549 Technical Determinants of the Success of the Quality Management Systems Implementation in Automotive Industry

Authors: Agnieszka Misztal

Abstract:

The popularity of the quality management system models continues to grow despite the transitional crisis in 2008. Their development is associated with the demands of the new requirements for entrepreneurs, such as risk analysis projects and more emphasis on supervision of outsourced processes. In parallel appropriate to focus attention on the selection of companies aspiring to quality management system. This is particularly important in the automotive supplier industry, where requirements transferred to the levels in the supply chain should be clear, transparent and fairly satisfied. The author has carried out series of researches aimed at finding the factors that allow for the effective implementation of the quality management system in automotive companies. The research was focused on four groups of companies: 1) manufacturing (parts and assemblies for the purpose of sale or for vehicle manufacturers), 2) service (repair and maintenance of the car), 3) services for the transport of goods or people, 4) commercial (auto parts and vehicles). Identified determinants were divided in two types of criteria into: internal and external, as well as: hard and soft. The article presents hard - technical factors that automotive company must meet in order to achieve the goal of the quality management system implementation.

Keywords: automotive industry, quality management system, automotive technology, automotive company

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1548 Modeling of Steady State Creep in Thick-Walled Cylinders under Internal Pressure

Authors: Tejeet Singh, Ishavneet Singh

Abstract:

The present study focused on carrying out the creep analysis in an isotropic thick-walled composite cylindrical pressure vessel composed of aluminum matrix reinforced with silicon-carbide in particulate form. The creep behavior of the composite material has been described by the threshold stress based creep law. The values of stress exponent appearing in the creep law were selected as 3, 5 and 8. The constitutive equations were developed using well known von-Mises yield criteria. Models were developed to find out the distributions of creep stress and strain rate in thick-walled composite cylindrical pressure vessels under internal pressure. In order to obtain the stress distributions in the cylinder, the equilibrium equation of the continuum mechanics and the constitutive equations are solved together. It was observed that the radial stress, tangential stress and axial stress increases along with the radial distance. The cross-over was also obtained almost at the middle region of cylindrical vessel for tangential and axial stress for different values of stress exponent. The strain rates were also decreasing in nature along the entire radius.

Keywords: steady state creep, composite, cylinder, pressure

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1547 A Light in the Road of Protection of Civilians: Responsibility to Protect

Authors: Zeynep Selin Acar

Abstract:

In the world of wars, it is aimed to find ways to protect civilians propound by political elites. Current threats may come from edges of the security concerns, meaning uncontrollable terrorist groups, unanticipated government-supported armed groups or separatists, and unimaginable merge of the previous with foreign supports or oppositions of which could flow into all groups– flaws of international state system. These threats resulted in transformation of inter-state system into a world system with distinctive actors and brought along the changes in strategic plans of political and military bodies, as well as adaptations of principles framing the strategies in terms of may-be-applicable international law constrained by ethical considerations. This paper aims to analyse the Responsibility to Protect (RtoP), being one of those, with its criteria aiming to regulate military interventions taking the protection of civilians both as the reason for intervention, jus ad bellum or right to war, and as the duties during the intervention, jus in bello or how to conduct the war. In addition it will discuss the rise of its bindingness in terms of Responsibility Not to Veto (RNtoV), Franco/Mexican Political Declaration opened in signature for UN member states on September 2015.

Keywords: civilian protection, protection as responsibility, responsibility to protect, responsibility not to veto

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1546 Reservoir Fluids: Occurrence, Classification, and Modeling

Authors: Ahmed El-Banbi

Abstract:

Several PVT models exist to represent how PVT properties are handled in sub-surface and surface engineering calculations for oil and gas production. The most commonly used models include black oil, modified black oil (MBO), and compositional models. These models are used in calculations that allow engineers to optimize and forecast well and reservoir performance (e.g., reservoir simulation calculations, material balance, nodal analysis, surface facilities, etc.). The choice of which model is dependent on fluid type and the production process (e.g., depletion, water injection, gas injection, etc.). Based on close to 2,000 reservoir fluid samples collected from different basins and locations, this paper presents some conclusions on the occurrence of reservoir fluids. It also reviews the common methods used to classify reservoir fluid types. Based on new criteria related to the production behavior of different fluids and economic considerations, an updated classification of reservoir fluid types is presented in the paper. Recommendations on the use of different PVT models to simulate the behavior of different reservoir fluid types are discussed. Each PVT model requirement is highlighted. Available methods for the calculation of PVT properties from each model are also discussed. Practical recommendations and tips on how to control the calculations to achieve the most accurate results are given.

Keywords: PVT models, fluid types, PVT properties, fluids classification

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1545 Fuzzy Inference System for Risk Assessment Evaluation of Wheat Flour Product Manufacturing Systems

Authors: Atrin Barzegar, Yas Barzegar, Stefano Marrone, Francesco Bellini, Laura Verde

Abstract:

The aim of this research is to develop an intelligent system to analyze the risk level of wheat flour product manufacturing system. The model consists of five Fuzzy Inference Systems in two different layers to analyse the risk of a wheat flour product manufacturing system. The first layer of the model consists of four Fuzzy Inference Systems with three criteria. The output of each one of the Physical, Chemical, Biological and Environmental Failures will be the input of the final manufacturing systems. The proposed model based on Mamdani Fuzzy Inference Systems gives a performance ranking of wheat flour products manufacturing systems. The first step is obtaining data to identify the failure modes from expert’s opinions. The second step is the fuzzification process to convert crisp input to a fuzzy set., then the IF-then fuzzy rule applied through inference engine, and in the final step, the defuzzification process is applied to convert the fuzzy output into real numbers.

Keywords: failure modes, fuzzy rules, fuzzy inference system, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 75