Search results for: molecular modelling

Authors: D. Glamowska, K. Szymkowska, K. Mojsiewicz- Pieńkowska, K. Cal, Z. Jankowski

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Introduction: The integrity of the outermost layer of skin (stratum corneum) is vital to the penetration of various compounds, including toxic substances. Barrier function of skin depends of its structure. The barrier function of the stratum corneum is provided by patterned lipid lamellae (binlayer). However, a lot of substances, including the low molecular methyl siloxanes (volatile methyl siloxanes, VMS) have an impact on alteration the skin barrier due to damage of stratum corneum structure. VMS belong to silicones. They are widely used in the pharmaceutical as well as cosmetic industry. Silicones fulfill the role of ingredient or excipient in medicinal products and the excipient in personal care products. Due to the significant human exposure to this group of compounds, an important aspect is toxicology of the compounds and safety assessment of products. Silicones in general opinion are considered as a non-toxic substances, but there are some data about their negative effect on living organisms through the inhaled or oral application. However, the transdermal route has not been described in the literature as a possible alternative route of penetration. The aim of the study was to verify the possibility of penetration of the stratum corneum, further permeation into the deeper layers of the skin (epidermis and dermis) as well as to the fluid acceptor by VMS. Methods: Research methodology was developed based on the OECD and WHO guidelines. In ex-vivo study, the fluorescence microscope and ATR FT-IR spectroscopy was used. The Franz- type diffusion cells were used to application of the VMS on the sample of human skin (A=0.65 cm) for 24h. The stratum corneum at the application site was tape-stripped. After separation of epidermis, relevant dyes: fluorescein, sulforhodamine B, rhodamine B hexyl ester were put on and observations were carried in the microscope. To confirm the penetration and permeation of the cyclic or linear VMS and thus the presence of silicone in the individual layers of the skin, spectra ATR FT-IR of the sample after application of silicone and H2O (control sample) were recorded. The research included comparison of the intesity of bands in characteristic positions for silicones (1263 cm-1, 1052 cm-1 and 800 cm-1). Results: and Conclusions The results present that cyclic and linear VMS are able to overcome the barrier of the skin. Influence of them on damage of corneocytes of the stratum corneum was observed. This phenomenon was due to distinct disturbances in the lipid structure of the stratum corneum. The presence of cyclic and linear VMS were identified in the stratum corneum, epidermis as well as in the dermis by both fluorescence microscope and ATR FT-IR spectroscopy. This confirms that the cyclic and linear VMS can penetrate to stratum corneum and permeate through the human skin layers. Apart from this they cause changes in the structure of the skin. Results show to possible absorption into the blood and lymphathic vessels by the VMS with linear and cyclic structure.

Keywords: low molecular methyl siloxanes, volatile methyl siloxanes, linear and cyclic siloxanes, skin penetration, skin permeation

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Authors: Sergio Haram Sarmiento, Arcady Ponosov

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Based on appropriate multivariate statistical methodology, we suggest a generic framework for efficient parameter estimation for ordinary differential equations and the corresponding nonlinear models. In this framework classical linear regression strategies is refined into a nonlinear regression by a locally linear modelling technique (known as metamodelling). The approach identifies those latent variables of the given model that accumulate most information about it among all approximations of the same dimension. The method is applied to several benchmark problems, in particular, to the so-called ”power-law systems”, being non-linear differential equations typically used in Biochemical System Theory.

Keywords: principal component analysis, generalized law of mass action, parameter estimation, metamodels

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Authors: Nadia El Alami El Hassani, Soukaina Motia, Benachir Bouchikhi, Nezha El Bari

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Doxycycline (DXy) is a cycline antibiotic, most frequently prescribed to treat bacterial infections in veterinary medicine. However, its broad antimicrobial activity and low cost, lead to an intensive use, which can seriously affect human health. Therefore, its spread in the food products has to be monitored. The scope of this work was to synthetize a sensitive and very selective molecularly imprinted polymer (MIP) for DXy detection in honey samples. Firstly, the synthesis of this biosensor was performed by casting a layer of carboxylate polyvinyl chloride (PVC-COOH) on the working surface of a gold screen-printed electrode (Au-SPE) in order to bind covalently the analyte under mild conditions. Secondly, DXy as a template molecule was bounded to the activated carboxylic groups, and the formation of MIP was performed by a biocompatible polymer by the mean of polyacrylamide matrix. Then, DXy was detected by measurements of differential pulse voltammetry (DPV). A non-imprinted polymer (NIP) prepared in the same conditions and without the use of template molecule was also performed. We have noticed that the elaborated biosensor exhibits a high sensitivity and a linear behavior between the regenerated current and the logarithmic concentrations of DXy from 0.1 pg.mL⁻¹ to 1000 pg.mL⁻¹. This technic was successfully applied to determine DXy residues in honey samples with a limit of detection (LOD) of 0.1 pg.mL⁻¹ and an excellent selectivity when compared to the results of oxytetracycline (OXy) as analogous interfering compound. The proposed method is cheap, sensitive, selective, simple, and is applied successfully to detect DXy in honey with the recoveries of 87% and 95%. Considering these advantages, this system provides a further perspective for food quality control in industrial fields.

Keywords: doxycycline, electrochemical sensor, food control, gold nanoparticles, honey, molecular imprinted polymer

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Authors: C. S. Jeba Samuel

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Soil, especially from oil field has posed a great hazard for terrestrial and marine ecosystems. The traditional treatment of oil contaminated soil cannot degrade the crude oil completely. So far, biodegradation proves to be an efficient method. During biodegradation, crude oil is used as the carbon source and addition of nitrogenous compounds increases the microbial growth, resulting in the effective breakdown of crude oil components to low molecular weight components. The present study was carried out to evaluate the biodegradation of crude oil by hydrocarbon-degrading microorganism Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolated from natural environment like oil contaminated soil. Pseudomonas aeruginosa, an oil degrading microorganism also called as hydrocarbon utilizing microorganism (or “HUM” bug) can utilize crude oil as sole carbon source. In this study, the biodegradation of crude oil was conducted with modified mineral basal salt medium and nitrogen sources so as to increase the degradation. The efficacy of the plasmid from the isolated strain was incorporated into E.coli DH5 α host to speed up the degradation of oil. The usage of molecular techniques has increased oil degradation which was confirmed by the degradation of aromatic and aliphatic rings of hydrocarbons and was inferred by the lesser number of peaks in Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR). The gas chromatogram again confirms better degradation by transformed cells by the lesser number of components obtained in the oil treated with transformed cells. This study demonstrated the technical feasibility of using direct inoculation of transformed cells onto the oil contaminated region thereby leading to the achievement of better oil degradation in a shorter time than the degradation caused by the wild strain.

Keywords: biodegradation, aromatic rings, plasmid, hydrocarbon, Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR)

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Authors: Souradip Paul, Arijit Paramanick, M. Suheshkumar Singh

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Traumatic injury is the leading worldwide health problem. Annually, millions of surgical wounds are created for the sake of routine medical care. The healing of these unintended injuries is always monitored based on visual inspection. The maximal restoration of tissue functionality remains a significant concern of clinical care. Although minor injuries heal well with proper care and medical treatment, large injuries negatively influence various factors (vasculature insufficiency, tissue coagulation) and cause poor healing. Demographically, the number of people suffering from severe wounds and impaired healing conditions is burdensome for both human health and the economy. An incomplete understanding of the functional and molecular mechanism of tissue healing often leads to a lack of proper therapies and treatment. Hence, strong and promising medical guidance is necessary for monitoring the tissue regeneration processes. Photoacoustic imaging (PAI), is a non-invasive, hybrid imaging modality that can provide a suitable solution in this regard. Light combined with sound offers structural, functional and molecular information from the higher penetration depth. Therefore, molecular and structural mechanisms of tissue repair will be readily observable in PAI from the superficial layer and in the deep tissue region. Blood vessel formation and its growth is an essential tissue-repairing components. These vessels supply nutrition and oxygen to the cell in the wound region. Angiogenesis (formation of new capillaries from existing blood vessels) contributes to new blood vessel formation during tissue repair. The betterment of tissue healing directly depends on angiogenesis. Other optical microscopy techniques can visualize angiogenesis in micron-scale penetration depth but are unable to provide deep tissue information. PAI overcomes this barrier due to its unique capability. It is ideally suited for deep tissue imaging and provides the rich optical contrast generated by hemoglobin in blood vessels. Hence, an early angiogenesis detection method provided by PAI leads to monitoring the medical treatment of the wound. Along with functional property, mechanical property also plays a key role in tissue regeneration. The wound heals through a dynamic series of physiological events like coagulation, granulation tissue formation, and extracellular matrix (ECM) remodeling. Therefore tissue elasticity changes, can be identified using non-contact photoacoustic elastography (PAE). In a nutshell, angiogenesis and biomechanical properties are both critical parameters for tissue healing and these can be characterized in a single imaging modality (PAI).

Keywords: PAT, wound healing, tissue coagulation, angiogenesis

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Authors: Hongquan Zhang

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Inspired by endogenous protein motors, researchers have constructed various synthetic DNA motors based on the specificity and predictability of Watson-Crick base pairing. However, the application of DNA motors to signal amplification and biosensing is limited because of low mobility and difficulty in real-time monitoring of the walking process. The objective of our work was to construct a new type of DNA motor termed target-triggered DNA motors that can walk for hundreds of steps in response to a single target binding event. To improve the mobility and processivity of DNA motors, we used gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) as scaffolds to build high-density, three-dimensional tracks. Hundreds of track strands are conjugated to a single AuNP. To enable DNA motors to respond to specific protein and nucleic acid targets, we adapted the binding-induced DNA assembly into the design of the target-triggered DNA motors. In response to the binding of specific target molecules, DNA motors are activated to autonomously walk along AuNP, which is powered by a nicking endonuclease or DNAzyme-catalyzed cleavage of track strands. Each moving step restores the fluorescence of a dye molecule, enabling monitoring of the operation of DNA motors in real time. The motors can translate a single binding event into the generation of hundreds of oligonucleotides from a single nanoparticle. The motors have been applied to amplify the detection of proteins and nucleic acids in test tubes and live cells. The motors were able to detect low pM concentrations of specific protein and nucleic acid targets in homogeneous solutions without the need for separation. Target-triggered DNA motors are significant for broadening applications of DNA motors to molecular sensing, cell imagining, molecular interaction monitoring, and controlled delivery and release of therapeutics.

Keywords: biosensing, DNA motors, gold nanoparticles, signal amplification

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Authors: Xi Quan Cheng, Yan Chao Xu, Xu Jiang, Lu Shao, Cher Hon Lau

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A hydrophilic thin-film-composite (TFC) nanofiltration (NF) membrane has been developed through the interfacial polymerization (IP) of amino-functional polyethylene glycol (PEG) and trimesoyl chloride. The selective layer is formed on a polyethersulfone (PES) support that is characterized using FTIR, XPS and SEM, and is dependent on monomer immersion duration, and the concentration of monomers and additives. The higher hydrophilicity alongside the larger pore size of the PEG-based selective layer is the key to a high water flux of 66.0 L m-2 h-1 at 5.0 bar. With mean pore radius of 0.42 nm and narrow pore size distribution, the MgSO4 rejections of the PEG based PA TFC NF membranes can reach up to 80.2 %. The hydrophilic PEG based membranes shows positive charged since the isoelectric points range from pH=8.9 to pH=9.1 and the rejection rates for different salts of the novel membranes are in the order of R(MgCl2)>R(MgSO4)>R(NaCl)>R(Na2SO4). The pore sizes and water permeability of these membranes are tailored by varying the molecular weight and molecular architecture of amino-functional PEG. Due to the unique structure of the selective layer of the PEG based membranes consisting of saturated aliphatic construction unit (CH2-CH2-O), the membranes demonstrate dual resistance to fouling and chlorine. The membranes maintain good salt rejections and high water flux of PEG based membranes after treatment by 2000 ppm NaClO for 24 hours. Interestingly, the PEG based membranes exhibit excellent fouling resistance with a water flux recovery of 90.2 % using BSA as a model molecule. More importantly, the hydrophilic PEG based NF membranes have been exploited to separate several water soluble antibiotics (such as tobramycin, an aminoglycoside antibiotic applied in the treatment of various types of bacterial infections), showing excellent performance in concentration or removal of antibioics.

Keywords: nanofiltration, antibiotic separation, hydrophilic membrane, high flux

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Authors: Muhammad Asif ShakoorI, Maogang He, Aamir Shahzad

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Dusty (complex) plasmas contained micro-sized charged dust particles in addition to ions, electrons, and neutrals. It is typically low-temperature plasma and exists in a wide variety of physical systems. In this work, the effects of an external electric field on the diffusion coefficient and share viscosity are investigated through equilibrium molecular dynamics (EMD) simulations in three-dimensional (3D) strongly coupled (SC) dusty plasmas (DPs). The effects of constant and varying normalized electric field strength (E*) have been computed along with different combinations of plasma states on the diffusion of dust particles using EMD simulations. Diffusion coefficient (D) and share viscosity (η) along with varied system sizes, in the limit of varying E* values, is accounted for an appropriate range of plasma coupling (Γ) and screening strength (κ) parameters. At varying E* values, it is revealed that the 3D diffusion coefficient increases with increasing E* and κ; however, it decreases with an increase of Γ but within statistical limits. The share viscosity increases with increasing E*and Γ and decreases with increasing κ. New simulation results are outstanding that the combined effects of electric field and screening strengths give well-matched values of Dandη at low-intermediate to large Γ with varying small-intermediate to large N. The current EMD simulation outcomes under varying electric field strengths are in satisfactory well-matched with previous known simulation data of EMD simulations of the SC-DPs. It has been shown that the present EMD simulation data enlarged the range of E* strength up to 0.1 ≤ E*≤ 1.0 in order to find the linear range of the DPs system and to demonstrate the fundamental nature of electric field linearity of 3D SC-DPs.

Keywords: strongly coupled dusty plasma, diffusion coefficient, share viscosity, molecular dynamics simulation, electric field strength

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Authors: O. Ubani, H. I. Atagana, M. S. Thantsha

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This study was conducted to measure the reduction in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) content in oil sludge by co-composting the sludge with pig, cow, horse and poultry manures under laboratory conditions. Four kilograms of soil spiked with 800 g of oil sludge was co-composted differently with each manure in a ratio of 2:1 (w/w) spiked soil:manure and wood-chips in a ratio of 2:1 (w/v) spiked soil:wood-chips. Control was set up similar as the one above but without manure. Mixtures were incubated for 10 months at room temperature. Compost piles were turned weekly and moisture level was maintained at between 50% and 70%. Moisture level, pH, temperature, CO2 evolution and oxygen consumption were measured monthly and the ash content at the end of experimentation. Bacteria capable of utilizing PAHs were isolated, purified and characterized by molecular techniques using polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE), amplification of the 16S rDNA gene using the specific primers (16S-P1 PCR and 16S-P2 PCR) and the amplicons were sequenced. Extent of reduction of PAHs was measured using automated soxhlet extractor with dichloromethane as the extraction solvent coupled with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Temperature did not exceed 27.5O°C in all compost heaps, pH ranged from 5.5 to 7.8 and CO2 evolution was highest in poultry manure at 18.78 µg/dwt/day. Microbial growth and activities were enhanced. Bacteria identified were Bacillus, Arthrobacter and Staphylococcus species. Results from PAH measurements showed reduction between 77 and 99%. The results from the control experiments may be because it was invaded by fungi. Co-composting of spiked soils with animal manures enhanced the reduction in PAHs. Interestingly, all bacteria isolated and identified in this study were present in all treatments, including the control.

Keywords: bioremediation, co-composting, oil refinery sludge, PAHs, bacteria spp, animal manures, molecular techniques

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Authors: Sujesh F. Sujan, Steve W. Jones, Arto Kiviniemi

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The use of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in the Architectural-Engineering-Construction (AEC) industry is a form of systemic innovation. Unlike incremental innovation, (such as the technological development of CAD from hand based drawings to 2D electronically printed drawings) any form of systemic innovation in Project-Based Inter-Organisational Networks requires complete collaboration and results in numerous benefits if adopted and utilised properly. Proper use of BIM involves people collaborating with the use of interoperable BIM compliant tools. The AEC industry globally has been known for its adversarial and fragmented nature where firms take advantage of one another to increase their own profitability. Due to the industry’s nature, getting people to collaborate by unifying their goals is critical to successful BIM adoption. However, this form of innovation is often being forced artificially in the old ways of working which do not suit collaboration. This may be one of the reasons for its low global use even though the technology was developed more than 20 years ago. Therefore, there is a need to develop a metric/method to support and allow industry players to gain confidence in their investment into BIM software and workflow methods. This paper departs from defining systemic risk as a risk that affects all the project participants at a given stage of a project and defines categories of systemic risks. The need to generalise is to allow method applicability to any industry where the category will be the same, but the example of the risk will depend on the industry the study is done in. The method proposed seeks to use individual perception of an example of systemic risk as a key parameter. The significance of this study lies in relating the variance of individual perception of systemic risk to how much the team is collaborating. The method bases its notions on the claim that a more unified range of individual perceptions would mean a higher probability that the team is collaborating better. Since contracts and procurement devise how a project team operates, the method could also break the methodological barrier of highly subjective findings that case studies inflict, which has limited the possibility of generalising between global industries. Since human nature applies in all industries, the authors’ intuition is that perception can be a valuable parameter to study collaboration which is essential especially in projects that utilise systemic innovation such as BIM.

Keywords: building information modelling, perception of risk, systemic innovation, team collaboration

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Authors: M. Belén Prendes-Gero, Celestino González-Nicieza, M. Inmaculada Alvarez-Fernández

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Roof collapse is one of the problems with a higher frequency in most of the mines of all countries, even now. There are many reasons that may cause the roof to collapse, namely the mine stress activities in the mining process, the lack of vigilance and carelessness or the complexity of the geological structure and irregular operations. This work is the result of the analysis of one accident produced in the “Mary” coal exploitation located in northern Spain. In this accident, the roof of a crossroad of excavated galleries to exploit the “Morena” Layer, 700 m deep, collapsed. In the paper, the work done by the forensic team to determine the causes of the incident, its conclusions and recommendations are collected. Initially, the available documentation (geology, geotechnics, mining, etc.) and accident area were reviewed. After that, laboratory and on-site tests were carried out to characterize the behaviour of the rock materials and the support used (metal frames and shotcrete). With this information, different hypotheses of failure were simulated to find the one that best fits reality. For this work, the software of finite differences in three dimensions, FLAC 3D, was employed. The results of the study confirmed that the detachment was originated as a consequence of one sliding in the layer wall, due to the large roof span present in the place of the accident, and probably triggered as a consequence of the existence of a protection pillar insufficient. The results allowed to establish some corrective measures avoiding future risks. For example, the dimensions of the protection zones that must be remained unexploited and their interaction with the crossing areas between galleries, or the use of more adequate supports for these conditions, in which the significant deformations may discourage the use of rigid supports such as shotcrete. At last, a grid of seismic control was proposed as a predictive system. Its efficiency was tested along the investigation period employing three control equipment that detected new incidents (although smaller) in other similar areas of the mine. These new incidents show that the use of explosives produces vibrations which are a new risk factor to analyse in a next future.

Keywords: forensic analysis, hypothesis modelling, roof failure, seismic monitoring

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Authors: Matthew F. Gibson, Narasimha D. Rao, Raphael B. Slade, Joana Portugal Pereira, Joeri Rogelj

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Globally, India’s population is among the most severely impacted by nutrient deficiency, yet millions of tonnes of food are lost before reaching consumers. Across food groups, grains represent the largest share of daily calories and overall losses by mass in India. If current losses remain unresolved and follow projected population rates, we estimate, by 2030, losses from grains for human consumption could increase by 1.3-1.8 million tonnes (Mt) per year against current levels of ~10 Mt per year. This study quantifies energy input to minimise storage losses across India, responsible for a quarter of grain supply chain losses. In doing so, we identify and explore a Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) triplet between SDG₂, SDG₇, and SDG₁₂ and provide insight for development of joined up agriculture and health policy in the country. Analyzing rice, wheat, maize, bajra, and sorghum, we quantify one route to reduce losses in supply chains, by modelling the energy input to maintain favorable climatic conditions in modern silo storage. We quantify key nutrients (calories, protein, zinc, iron, vitamin A) contained within these losses and calculate roughly how much deficiency in these dietary components could be reduced if grain losses were eliminated. Our modelling indicates, with appropriate uncertainty, maize has the highest energy input intensity for storage, at 110 kWh per tonne of grain (kWh/t), and wheat the lowest (72 kWh/t). This energy trade-off represents 8%-16% of the energy input required in grain production. We estimate if grain losses across the supply chain were saved and targeted to India’s nutritionally deficient population, average protein deficiency could reduce by 46%, calorie by 27%, zinc by 26%, and iron by 11%. This study offers insight for development of Indian agriculture, food, and health policy by first quantifying and then presenting benefits and trade-offs of tackling food grain losses.

Keywords: energy, food loss, grain storage, hunger, India, sustainable development goal, SDG

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Authors: Mohammad Ehson Rangiha, Bill Karakostas

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Social Business Process Management (SBPM) promises to overcome limitations of traditional BPM by allowing flexible process design and enactment through the involvement of users from a social community. This paper proposes a meta-model and architecture for socially driven business process management systems. It discusses the main facets of the architecture such as goal-based role assignment that combines social recommendations with user profile, and process recommendation, through a real example of a charity organization.

Keywords: business process management, goal-based modelling, process recommendation social collaboration, social BPM

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Authors: Hammad Majeed, Hanna Knuutila, Magne Hillestad, Hallvard F. Svendsen

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Formation of aerosols can cause serious complications in industrial exhaust gas CO2 capture processes. SO3 present in the flue gas can cause aerosol formation in an absorption based capture process. Small mist droplets and fog formed can normally not be removed in conventional demisting equipment because their submicron size allows the particles or droplets to follow the gas flow. As a consequence of this aerosol based emissions in the order of grams per Nm3 have been identified from PCCC plants. In absorption processes aerosols are generated by spontaneous condensation or desublimation processes in supersaturated gas phases. Undesired aerosol development may lead to amine emissions many times larger than what would be encountered in a mist free gas phase in PCCC development. It is thus of crucial importance to understand the formation and build-up of these aerosols in order to mitigate the problem. Rigorous modelling of aerosol dynamics leads to a system of partial differential equations. In order to understand mechanics of a particle entering an absorber an implementation of the model is created in Matlab. The model predicts the droplet size, the droplet internal variable profiles and the mass transfer fluxes as function of position in the absorber. The Matlab model is based on a subclass method of weighted residuals for boundary value problems named, orthogonal collocation method. The model comprises a set of mass transfer equations for transferring components and the essential diffusion reaction equations to describe the droplet internal profiles for all relevant constituents. Also included is heat transfer across the interface and inside the droplet. This paper presents results describing the basic simulation tool for the characterization of aerosols formed in CO2 absorption columns and gives examples as to how various entering droplets grow or shrink through an absorber and how their composition changes with respect to time. Below are given some preliminary simulation results for an aerosol droplet composition and temperature profiles.

Keywords: absorption columns, aerosol formation, amine emissions, internal droplet profiles, monoethanolamine (MEA), post combustion CO2 capture, simulation

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Authors: Dafna Knani, Sarit S. Sivan

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Aggrecan, one of the main components of the intervertebral disc (IVD), belongs to the family of proteoglycans (PGs) that are composed of glycosaminoglycan (GAG) chains covalently attached to a core protein. Its primary function is to maintain tissue hydration and hence disc height under the high loads imposed by muscle activity and body weight. Significant PG loss is one of the first indications of disc degeneration. A possible solution to recover disc functions is by injecting a synthetic hydrogel into the joint cavity, hence mimicking the role of PGs. One of the hydrogels proposed is GAG-analogues, based on sulfate-containing polymers, which are responsible for hydration in disc tissue. In the present work, we used molecular dynamics (MD) to study the effect of the hydrogel crosslinking (type and degree) on the swelling behavior of the suggested GAG-analogue biomimetics by calculation of cohesive energy density (CED), solubility parameter, enthalpy of mixing (ΔEmix) and the interactions between the molecules at the pure form and as a mixture with water. The simulation results showed that hydrophobicity plays an important role in the swelling of the hydrogel, as indicated by the linear correlation observed between solubility parameter values of the copolymers and crosslinker weight ratio (w/w); this correlation was found useful in predicting the amount of PEGDA needed for the desirable hydration behavior of (CS)₄-peptide. Enthalpy of mixing calculations showed that all the GAG analogs, (CS)₄ and (CS)₄-peptide are water-soluble; radial distribution function analysis revealed that they form interactions with water molecules, which is important for the hydration process. To conclude, our simulation results, beyond supporting the experimental data, can be used as a useful predictive tool in the future development of biomaterials, such as disc replacement.

Keywords: molecular dynamics, proteoglycans, enthalpy of mixing, swelling

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Authors: Faiz Khan Mohammad, Saumya Ray Chaudhari, Raghunathan Rengaswamy, Swagatika Sahoo

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Cholera caused by pathogenic gut bacteria Vibrio Cholerae (VC), is a major health problem in developing countries. Different strains of VC exhibit variable responses subject to different extracellular medium (Nag et al, Infect Immun, 2018). In this study, we present a new approach to model the variable VC responses in mono- and co-cultures, subject to continuously changing growth medium, which is otherwise difficult via simple FBA model. Nine VC strain and seven E. coli (EC) models were assembled and considered. A continuously changing medium is modelled using a new iterative-based controlled medium technique (ITC). The medium is appropriately prefixed with the VC model secretome. As the flux through the bacteria biomass increases secretes certain by-products. These products shall add-on to the medium, either deviating the nutrient potential or block certain metabolic components of the model, effectively forming a controlled feed-back loop. Different VC models were setup as monoculture of VC in glucose enriched medium, and in co-culture with VC strains and EC. Constrained to glucose enriched medium, (i) VC_Classical model resulted in higher flux through acidic secretome suggesting a pH change of the medium, leading to lowering of its biomass. This is in consonance with the literature reports. (ii) When compared for neutral secretome, flux through acetoin exchange was higher in VC_El tor than the classical models, suggesting El tor requires an acidic partner to lower its biomass. (iii) Seven of nine VC models predicted 3-methyl-2-Oxovaleric acid, mysirtic acid, folic acid, and acetate significantly affect corresponding biomass reactions. (iv) V. parhemolyticus and vulnificus were found to be phenotypically similar to VC Classical strain, across the nine VC strains. The work addresses the advantage of the ITC over regular flux balance analysis for modelling varying growth medium. Future expansion to co-cultures, potentiates the identification of novel interacting partners as effective cholera therapeutics.

Keywords: cholera, vibrio cholera El. tor, vibrio cholera classical, acetate

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Authors: Murad Ghanim

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The citrus greening disease, also known as Huanglongbing, caused by the phloem-limited bacterium Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas) has resulted in tremendous losses and the death of millions of citrus trees worldwide. CLas is transmitted by the Asian citrus psyllid (ACP) Diaphorina citri. The closely-related bacterium Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum (CLso), which is associated with vegetative disorders in carrots and the zebra chips disease in potatoes, is transmitted by other psyllid species including Bactericera trigonica in carrots and B. ckockerelli in potatoes. Chemical sprays are currently the prevailing method for managing these diseases for limiting psyllid populations; however, they are limited in their effectiveness. A promising approach to prevent the transmission of these pathogens is to interfere with the vector-pathogen interactions, but our understanding of these processes is very limited. CLas induces changes in the nuclear architecture in the midgut of ACP and activates programmed cell death (apoptosis) in this organ. Strikingly, CLso displayed an opposite effect in the gut of B. trigonica, showing limited apoptosis, but widespread necrosis. Electron and fluorescent microscopy further showed that CLas induced the formation of Endoplasmic reticulum (ER) inclusion- and replication-like bodies, in which it increases and multiplies. ER involvement in bacterial replication is hypothesized to be the first stage of an immune response leading to the apoptotic and necrotic responses. ER exploitation and the subsequent events that lead to these cellular and stress responses might activate a cascade of molecular responses ending up with apoptosis and necrosis. Understanding the molecular interactions that underlay the necrotic/apoptotic responses to the bacteria will increase our knowledge of ACP-CLas, and BT-CLso interactions, and will set the foundation for developing novel, and efficient strategies to disturb these interactions and inhibit the transmission.

Keywords: Liberibacter, psyllid, transmission, apoptosis, necrosis

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Authors: Olusola Omolola Olafuyi, Michael Coleman, Raj Kumar Singh Badhan

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Introduction: Malaria in pregnancy has morbidity and mortality implication on both mother and unborn child. Piperaquine (PQ) based antimalarial treatment is emerging as a choice antimalarial for pregnant women in the face of resistance to current antimalarial treatment recommendation in pregnancy. Physiological and biochemical changes in pregnant women may affect the pharmacokinetics of the antimalarial drug in these. In malaria endemic regions other infectious diseases like HIV/AIDs are prevalent. Pregnant women who are co-infected with malaria and HIV/AID are at even more greater risk of death not only due to complications of the diseases but also due to drug-drug interactions (DDIs) between antimalarials (AMT) and antiretroviral (ARVs). In this study, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling was used to investigate the effect of physiological and biochemical changes on the impact of ARV mediated DDIs in pregnant women in three countries. Method: A PBPK model for PQ was developed on SimCYP® using published physicochemical and pharmacokinetic data of PQ from literature, this was validated in three customized population groups from Thailand, Sudan and Papua New Guinea with clinical data. Validation of PQ model was also done in presence of interaction with efavirenz (pre-validated on SimCYP®). Different albumin levels and pregnancy stages was simulated in the presence of interaction with standard doses of efavirenz and ritonavir. PQ day 7 concentration of 30ng/ml was used as the efficacy endpoint for PQ treatment.. Results: The median day 7 concentration of PQ remained virtually consistent throughout pregnancy and were satisfactory across the three population groups ranging from 26-34.1ng/ml; this implied the efficacy of PQ throughout pregnancy. DDI interaction with ritonavir and efavirenz resulted in modest effect on the day 7 concentrations of PQ with AUCratio ranging from 0.56-0.8 and 1.64-1.79 for efavirenz and ritonavir respectively over 10-40 gestational weeks, however, a reduction in human serum albumin level reflective of severe malaria resulted in significantly reduced the number of subjects attaining the PQ day 7 concentration in the presence of both DDIs. The model demonstrated that the DDI between PQ and ARV in pregnant women with different malaria severities can alter the pharmacokinetic of PQ.

Keywords: antiretroviral, malaria, piperaquine, pregnancy, physiologically-based pharmacokinetics

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Authors: K. S. Chai, S. H. Chan

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In this paper, the earth retaining wall anchored by discrete deadman anchor to support excavations in sand is modelled and analysed by finite element analysis. A study is conducted to examine how deadman anchorage system helps in reducing the deflection of earth retaining wall. A simplified numerical model is suggested in order to reduce the simulation duration. A comparison between 3-D and 2-D finite element analyses is illustrated.

Keywords: finite element, earth retaining wall, deadman anchor, sand

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Authors: Jožef Ritonja

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The biochemical industry is one of the most important modern industries. Biochemical reactors are crucial devices of the biochemical industry. The essential bioprocess carried out in bioreactors is the fermentation process. A thorough insight into the fermentation process and the knowledge how to control it are essential for effective use of bioreactors to produce high quality and quantitatively enough products. The development of the control system starts with the determination of a mathematical model that describes the steady state and dynamic properties of the controlled plant satisfactorily, and is suitable for the development of the control system. The paper analyses the fermentation process in bioreactors thoroughly, using existing mathematical models. Most existing mathematical models do not allow the design of a control system for controlling the fermentation process in batch bioreactors. Due to this, a mathematical model was developed and presented that allows the development of a control system for batch bioreactors. Based on the developed mathematical model, a control system was designed to ensure optimal response of the biochemical quantities in the fermentation process. Due to the time-varying and non-linear nature of the controlled plant, the conventional control system with a proportional-integral-differential controller with constant parameters does not provide the desired transient response. The improved adaptive control system was proposed to improve the dynamics of the fermentation. The use of the adaptive control is suggested because the parameters’ variations of the fermentation process are very slow. The developed control system was tested to produce dairy products in the laboratory bioreactor. A carbon dioxide concentration was chosen as the controlled variable. The carbon dioxide concentration correlates well with the other, for the quality of the fermentation process in significant quantities. The level of the carbon dioxide concentration gives important information about the fermentation process. The obtained results showed that the designed control system provides minimum error between reference and actual values of carbon dioxide concentration during a transient response and in a steady state. The recommended control system makes reference signal tracking much more efficient than the currently used conventional control systems which are based on linear control theory. The proposed control system represents a very effective solution for the improvement of the milk fermentation process.

Keywords: biochemical reactor, fermentation process, modelling, adaptive control

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Authors: Devinder Kaur Sugga, Ekamdeep Kaur, Jaspreet Kaur, C. Rajesh, Preeti Rajesh, Harsimran Kaur

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Withanolides are steroidal lactones and are highly oxygenated phytoconstituents that can be developed as potential anti-carcinogenic agents. The two main withanolides, namely Withaferin A and Withanolides D, have been extensively studied for their pharmacological activities. Both these withanolides are present in the Withania somnifera (WS) leaves belonging to the family Solanaceae, also known as “Indian ginseng .”In this study effects of WS leaf extract on the MCF7 breast cancer cell line were investigated by performing a 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyl tetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay to evaluate the cytotoxic effects and in vitro wound-healing assay to study the effect on cancer cell migration. Our data suggest WS extracts have cytotoxic effects and are effective anti-migrating agents and thus can be a source of potential candidates for the development of potential agents against metastasis. Thus, it can be a source of potential candidates for the development of potential agents against metastasis. Insight into these results, the in-silico approach to identify the possible protein targets interacting with withanolides was taken. Protein kinase C alpha (PKCα) was among the selected 5 top-ranked target proteins identified by the Swiss Target Prediction tool. PKCα is known to promote the growth and invasion of cancer cells and is being evaluated as a prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target in clinically aggressive tumors. Molecular docking of Withaferin A and Withanolides D was performed using AutoDock Vina. Both the bioactive compounds interacted with PKCα. The targets predicted using this approach will serve as leads for the possible therapeutic potential of withanolides, the bioactive ingredients of WS extracts, as anti-cancer drugs.

Keywords: withania somnifera, withaferin A, withanolides D, PKCα

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Authors: Mahmoud Abdulhamid, Rifan Hardian, Prashant Bhatt, Shuvo Datta, Adrian Ramirez, Jorge Gascon, Mohamed Eddaoudi, Gyorgy Szekely

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Polybenzimidazole (PBI) is a high-performance polymer that exhibits high thermal and chemical stability. However, it suffers from low porosity and low fractional free volume, which hinder its application as separation material. Herein, we demonstrate the molecular engineering of gas separation materials by manipulating a PBI backbone possessing kinked moieties. PBI was selected as it contains NH groups which increase the affinity towards CO₂, increase sorption capacity, and favors CO₂ over other gasses. We have designed and synthesized an intrinsically microporous polybenzimidazole (iPBI) featuring a spirobisindane structure. Introducing a kinked moiety in conjunction with crosslinking enhanced the polymer properties, markedly increasing the gas separation performance. In particular, the BET surface area of PBI increased 30-fold by replacing a flat benzene ring with a kinked structure. iPBI displayed a good CO₂ uptake of 1.4 mmol g⁻¹ at 1 bar and 3.6 mmol g⁻¹ at 10 bar. Gas sorption uptake and breakthrough experiments were conducted using mixtures of CO₂/CH₄ (50%/50%) and CO₂/N₂ (50%/50%), which revealed the high selectivity of CO₂ over both CH₄ and N₂. The obtained CO₂/N₂ selectivity is attractive for power plant flue gas application requiring CO₂ capturing materials. Energy and process simulations of biogas CO₂ removal demonstrated that up to 70% of the capture energy could be saved when iPBI was used rather than the current amine technology (methyl diethanolamine [MDEA]). Similarly, the combination of iPBI and MDEA in a hybrid system exhibited the highest CO₂ capture yield (99%), resulting in nearly 50% energy saving. The concept of enhancing the porosity of PBI using kinked moieties provides new scope for designing highly porous polybenzimidazoles for various separation processes.

Keywords: polybenzimidazole (PBI), intrinsically microporous polybenzimidazole (iPBI), gas separation, pnergy and process simulations

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Authors: B. V. Feujofack Kemda, N. Barka, M. Jahazi, D. Osmani

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Automobile manufacturers are constantly seeking means to reduce the weight of car bodies. The usage of several steel grades in auto body assembling has been found to be a good technique to enlighten vehicles weight. This few years, the usage of dual phase (DP) steels, transformation induced plasticity (TRIP) steels and boron steels in some parts of the auto body have become a necessity because of their lightweight. However, these steels are martensitic, when they undergo a fast heat treatment, the resultant microstructure is essential, made of martensite. Resistance spot welding (RSW), one of the most used techniques in assembling auto bodies, becomes problematic in the case of these steels. RSW being indeed a process were steel is heated and cooled in a very short period of time, the resulting weld nugget is mostly fully martensitic, especially in the case of DP, TRIP and boron steels but that also holds for plain carbon steels as AISI 1010 grade which is extensively used in auto body inner parts. Martensite in its turn must be avoided as most as possible when welding steel because it is the principal source of brittleness and it weakens weld nugget. Thus, this work aims to find a mean to reduce martensite fraction in weld nugget when using RSW for assembling. The prediction of phase transformation kinetics during RSW has been done. That phase transformation kinetics prediction has been made possible through the modelling of the whole welding process, and a technique called post weld heat treatment (PWHT) have been applied in order to reduce martensite fraction in the weld nugget. Simulation has been performed for AISI 1010 grade, and results show that the application of PWHT leads to the formation of not only martensite but also ferrite, bainite and pearlite during the cooling of weld nugget. Welding experiments have been done in parallel and micrographic analyses show the presence of several phases in the weld nugget. Experimental weld geometry and phase proportions are in good agreement with simulation results, showing here the validity of the model.

Keywords: resistance spot welding, AISI 1010, modeling, post weld heat treatment, phase transformation, kinetics

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Authors: Clive L. Morley

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Gravity models and panel data modelling of tourism flows are receiving renewed attention, after decades of general neglect. Such models have quite different underpinnings from conventional demand models derived from micro-economic theory. They operate at a different level of data and with different theoretical bases. These differences have important consequences for the interpretation of the results and their policy and managerial implications. This review compares and contrasts the two model forms, clarifying the distinguishing features and the estimation requirements of each. In general, gravity models are not recommended for use to address specific management and marketing purposes.

Keywords: gravity models, micro-economics, demand models, marketing

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Authors: Muhammad Suhail Ibrahim, Ahmad Mujtaba

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Background: The accuracy of the most frequently used tests for diagnosing Helicobacter pylori is always under consideration in clinical settings. A reliable diagnosis is crucial to confirm the success of therapy. Objective: The aim of this research was to study the isolation frequency of H. pylori from patients compatible with gastritis or gastric ulcer and to compare some feasible non-invasive and invasive methods for the diagnosis of infection. Materials and Methods: Ninety-six gastric biopsy and blood samples were obtained with various gastroduodenal symptoms after obtaining informed consent. The biopsies were analyzed and compared using the culture, microscopic examination, histopathology, Rapid urease RUT), serology, biochemical, antibiotic susceptibility test and molecular method. Results: A number of 40 (41.67%) were considered H. pylori positive in both histopathology and RUT. On the other hand, 46 patients were positive against anti IgA and IgG by ELISA. Eighteen biopsies were positive according to the culture test. This was further confirmed by endoscopic examination, urease, catalase and oxidase tests. A high percentage of resistance to polymyxin B, amoxicillin, and kanamycin was observed (100, 88.89, and 77.78%, respectively). A gene (Cag A) was also detected by using molecular technique which appeared positive in 16 patients. The sensitivity/specificity (%) of diagnostic method was 95/77 for histology, 100/83.5 for rapid urease, 85.7/90 for gram staining, 100/66.6 for IgG serology, 100/79.5 for IgA serology, 100/75.0 for PCR, 100/79.04 for combination of RUT and IgG serology and 100/92.4 for combination of RUT, gram staining and IgG serology. Conclusion: In view of the result obtained, PCR appeared to be the most reliable test. However, higher sensitivity and specificity were also recorded for other tests. So, for more accurate results, it is advisable not to rely solely on a single method for detection.

Keywords: helicobacter pylori, isolation, detection, culture, urease, polymerase chain reaction, antibiotic susceptibility test, dyspeptic patients

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Authors: Bello Abdullahi, Yahaya M. Ibrahim, Ahmed D. Ibrahim, Kabir Bala

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Public sector tendering has traditionally been conducted using manual paper-based processes which are known to be inefficient, less transparent and more prone to manipulations and errors. The advent of the Internet and the World Wide Web has led to the development of numerous e-Tendering systems that addressed some of the problems associated with the manual paper-based tendering system. However, most of these systems rarely support the evaluation of tenders and where they do it is mostly based on the single decision maker which is not suitable in public sector tendering, where for the sake of objectivity, transparency, and fairness, it is required that the evaluation is conducted through a tender evaluation committee. Currently, in Nigeria, the public tendering process in general and the evaluation of tenders, in particular, are largely conducted using manual paper-based processes. Automating these manual-based processes to digital-based processes can help in enhancing the proficiency of public sector tendering in Nigeria. This paper is part of a larger study to develop an electronic tendering system that supports the whole tendering lifecycle based on Nigerian procurement law. Specifically, this paper presents the design and implementation of part of the system that supports group evaluation of tenders based on a technique called fuzzy multi-attributes group decision making. The system was developed using Object-Oriented methodologies and Unified Modelling Language and hypothetically applied in the evaluation of technical and financial proposals submitted by bidders. The system was validated by professionals with extensive experiences in public sector procurement. The results of the validation showed that the system called NPS-eTender has an average rating of 74% with respect to correct and accurate modelling of the existing manual tendering domain and an average rating of 67.6% with respect to its potential to enhance the proficiency of public sector tendering in Nigeria. Thus, based on the results of the validation, the automation of the evaluation process to support tender evaluation committee is achievable and can lead to a more proficient public sector tendering system.

Keywords: e-Tendering, e-Procurement, group decision making, tender evaluation, tender evaluation committee, UML, object-oriented methodologies, system development

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Authors: Emilienne Lardy, Eric Ballot, Mariam Lafkihi

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Efficient urban logistics requires a comprehensive understanding of traffic dynamics, particularly as it pertains to kinetic parameters influencing energy consumption and trip duration estimations. While real-time traffic information is increasingly accessible, current high-precision forecasting services embedded in route planning often function as opaque 'black boxes' for users. These services, typically relying on AI-processed counting data, fall short in accommodating open design parameters essential for management studies, notably within Supply Chain Management. This work revisits the modelling of traffic conditions in the context of city logistics, emphasizing its significance from the user’s point of view, with two focuses. Firstly, the focus is not on the vehicle flow but on the vehicles themselves and the impact of the traffic conditions on their driving behaviour. This means opening the range of studied indicators beyond vehicle speed, to describe extensively the kinetic and dynamic aspects of the driving behaviour. To achieve this, we leverage the Art. Kinema parameters are designed to characterize driving cycles. Secondly, this study examines how the driving context (i.e., exogenous factors to the traffic flow) determines the mentioned driving behaviour. Specifically, we explore how accurately the kinetic behaviour of a vehicle can be predicted based on a limited set of exogenous factors, such as time, day, road type, orientation, slope, and weather conditions. To answer this question, statistical analysis was conducted on real-world driving data, which includes high-frequency measurements of vehicle speed. A Factor Analysis and a Generalized Linear Model have been established to link kinetic parameters with independent categorical contextual variables. The results include an assessment of the adjustment quality and the robustness of the models, as well as an overview of the model’s outputs.

Keywords: factor analysis, generalised linear model, real world driving data, traffic congestion, urban logistics, vehicle kinematics

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Authors: Chaoran Liu

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Bioactive polysaccharides and polysaccharide-protein complex derived from mushrooms and fungi have a wide range of immunomodulatory activity with low side-effects and have therefore the potential to be developed as an adjuvant in cancer therapies. Mushrooms sclerotium is rich in polysaccharides and the polysaccharides isolated from the sclerotium of Polyporus rhinocerus have shown potent in vivo and in vitro immunomodulatory effects. Macrophages are considered to be an important component of the innate immune response against bacterial infection and cancer. To better understanding the immunomodulatory effects and its underlying mechanisms of sclerotial water-soluble polysaccharides extracted from P. rhinocerus on macrophages, the objectives of this study are to purify the water-soluble novel sclerotial polysaccharides and to characterize the structure and properties as well as to study the detailed molecular mechanisms of the in vitro immunomodulating effects in murine macrophages. The hot water-soluble fraction PRW from the sclerotium of P. rhinocerus was obtained using solvent extraction. PRW was further fractionated by membrane ultrafiltration to a give a fraction (PRW1) with molecular mass less than 50 kDa. PRW1 was characterized to be a polysaccharide-protein complex composed of 45.7% polysaccharide and 44.2% protein. The chemical structure of the carbohydrate moiety of PRW1 was elucidated by GC and FTIR to be mainly beta-D-glucan with trace amount of galactose and mannose. The immunomodulatory effects of PRW1 on murine RAW 264.7 macrophages were demonstrated in terms of the increase in nitric oxide production and cytokine production. Mechanistically, PRW1 initiates ERK phosphorylation to activate macrophages within 15 min and significantly improves the expression level of inducible NOS (iNOS) from 6 h after treatment. In summary, this study indicates that PRW1 is a potent immunomodulatory agent for macrophages and suggests that mushroom sclerotia from Polyporus rhinocerus requires for further investigation in cancer research.

Keywords: Polyporus rhinocerus, mushroom sclerotia, Polysaccharide-Protein Complex, macrophage activation

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Authors: Dharmendra Pratap

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Large Cardamom (Amomum subulatum), family Zingiberaceae is an aromatic spice crop and has rich medicinal value. Large Cardamom is as synonymous to Sikkim as Tea is to Darjeeling. Since Sikkim alone contributes up to 88% of India's large cardamom production which is the world leader by producing over 50% of the global yield. However, the production of large cardamom has declined almost to half since last two decade. The economic losses have been attributed to two viral diseases namely, chirke and Foorkey. Chirke disease is characterized by light and dark green streaks on leaves. The affected leaves exhibit streak mosaic, which gradually coalesce, turn brown and eventually dry up. Excessive sprouting and formation of bushy dwarf clumps at the base of mother plants that gradually die characterize the foorkey disease. In our surveys in Sikkim–Darjeeling hill area during 2012-14, 40-45% of plants were found to be affected with foorkey disease and 10-15% with chirke. Mechanical and aphid transmission study showed banana as an alternate host for both the disease. For molecular identification, total genomic DNA and RNA was isolated from the infected leaf tissues and subjected to Rolling circle amplification (RCA) and RT-PCR respectively. The DNA concatamers produced in the RCA reaction were monomerized by different restriction enzymes and the bands corresponding to ~1 kb genomes were purified and cloned in the respective sites. The nucleotide sequencing results revealed the association of Nanovirus with the foorkey disease of large cardamom. DNA1 showed 74% identity with Replicase gene of FBNYV, DNA2 showed 77% identity with the NSP gene of BBTV and DNA3 showed 74% identity with CP gene of BBTV. The finding suggests the presence of a new species of nanovirus associated with foorkey disease of large cardamom in Sikkim and Darjeeling hills. The details of their epidemiology and other factors would be discussed.

Keywords: RCA, nanovirus, large cardamom, molecular virology and microbiology

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This paper is devoted to mathematical modelling of the progression and stages of breast cancer. We propose Consolidated mathematical growth model of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases (CoM-III) as a new research tool. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-III which reflects relations between primary tumor and secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoM-III scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. Firstly, the CoM-III includes exponential tumor growth model as a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations. Secondly, mathematical model corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-III model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; b) make forecast of the period of the distant metastases appearance in patients with lymph nodes metastases; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-III: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases. The CoM-III enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-III describes correctly primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N1-3M0) stages in patients with lymph nodes metastases (N1-3); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, primary tumor, secondary metastases, survival

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