Search results for: impact during crop and post-crop
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 11406

Search results for: impact during crop and post-crop

426 Analysis of Taxonomic Compositions, Metabolic Pathways and Antibiotic Resistance Genes in Fish Gut Microbiome by Shotgun Metagenomics

Authors: Anuj Tyagi, Balwinder Singh, Naveen Kumar B. T., Niraj K. Singh

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Characterization of diverse microbial communities in specific environment plays a crucial role in the better understanding of their functional relationship with the ecosystem. It is now well established that gut microbiome of fish is not the simple replication of microbiota of surrounding local habitat, and extensive species, dietary, physiological and metabolic variations in fishes may have a significant impact on its composition. Moreover, overuse of antibiotics in human, veterinary and aquaculture medicine has led to rapid emergence and propagation of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in the aquatic environment. Microbial communities harboring specific ARGs not only get a preferential edge during selective antibiotic exposure but also possess the significant risk of ARGs transfer to other non-resistance bacteria within the confined environments. This phenomenon may lead to the emergence of habitat-specific microbial resistomes and subsequent emergence of virulent antibiotic-resistant pathogens with severe fish and consumer health consequences. In this study, gut microbiota of freshwater carp (Labeo rohita) was investigated by shotgun metagenomics to understand its taxonomic composition and functional capabilities. Metagenomic DNA, extracted from the fish gut, was subjected to sequencing on Illumina NextSeq to generate paired-end (PE) 2 x 150 bp sequencing reads. After the QC of raw sequencing data by Trimmomatic, taxonomic analysis by Kraken2 taxonomic sequence classification system revealed the presence of 36 phyla, 326 families and 985 genera in the fish gut microbiome. At phylum level, Proteobacteria accounted for more than three-fourths of total bacterial populations followed by Actinobacteria (14%) and Cyanobacteria (3%). Commonly used probiotic bacteria (Bacillus, Lactobacillus, Streptococcus, and Lactococcus) were found to be very less prevalent in fish gut. After sequencing data assembly by MEGAHIT v1.1.2 assembler and PROKKA automated analysis pipeline, pathway analysis revealed the presence of 1,608 Metacyc pathways in the fish gut microbiome. Biosynthesis pathways were found to be the most dominant (51%) followed by degradation (39%), energy-metabolism (4%) and fermentation (2%). Almost one-third (33%) of biosynthesis pathways were involved in the synthesis of secondary metabolites. Metabolic pathways for the biosynthesis of 35 antibiotic types were also present, and these accounted for 5% of overall metabolic pathways in the fish gut microbiome. Fifty-one different types of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) belonging to 15 antimicrobial resistance (AMR) gene families and conferring resistance against 24 antibiotic types were detected in fish gut. More than 90% ARGs in fish gut microbiome were against beta-lactams (penicillins, cephalosporins, penems, and monobactams). Resistance against tetracycline, macrolides, fluoroquinolones, and phenicols ranged from 0.7% to 1.3%. Some of the ARGs for multi-drug resistance were also found to be located on sequences of plasmid origin. The presence of pathogenic bacteria and ARGs on plasmid sequences suggested the potential risk due to horizontal gene transfer in the confined gut environment.

Keywords: antibiotic resistance, fish gut, metabolic pathways, microbial diversity

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425 Metagenomic analysis of Irish cattle faecal samples using Oxford Nanopore MinION Next Generation Sequencing

Authors: Niamh Higgins, Dawn Howard

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The Irish agri-food sector is of major importance to Ireland’s manufacturing sector and to the Irish economy through employment and the exporting of animal products worldwide. Infectious diseases and parasites have an impact on farm animal health causing profitability and productivity to be affected. For the sustainability of Irish dairy farming, there must be the highest standard of animal health. There can be a lack of information in accounting for > 1% of complete microbial diversity in an environment. There is the tendency of culture-based methods of microbial identification to overestimate the prevalence of species which grow easily on an agar surface. There is a need for new technologies to address these issues to assist with animal health. Metagenomic approaches provide information on both the whole genome and transcriptome present through DNA sequencing of total DNA from environmental samples producing high determination of functional and taxonomic information. Nanopore Next Generation Technologies have the ability to be powerful sequencing technologies. They provide high throughput, low material requirements and produce ultra-long reads, simplifying the experimental process. The aim of this study is to use a metagenomics approach to analyze dairy cattle faecal samples using the Oxford Nanopore MinION Next Generation Sequencer and to establish an in-house pipeline for metagenomic characterization of complex samples. Faecal samples will be obtained from Irish dairy farms, DNA extracted and the MinION will be used for sequencing, followed by bioinformatics analysis. Of particular interest, will be the parasite Buxtonella sulcata, which there has been little research on and which there is no research on its presence on Irish dairy farms. Preliminary results have shown the ability of the MinION to produce hundreds of reads in a relatively short time frame of eight hours. The faecal samples were obtained from 90 dairy cows on a Galway farm. The results from Oxford Nanopore ‘What’s in my pot’ (WIMP) using the Epi2me workflow, show that from a total of 926 classified reads, 87% were from the Kingdom Bacteria, 10% were from the Kingdom Eukaryota, 3% were from the Kingdom Archaea and < 1% were from the Kingdom Viruses. The most prevalent bacteria were those from the Genus Acholeplasma (71 reads), Bacteroides (35 reads), Clostridium (33 reads), Acinetobacter (20 reads). The most prevalent species present were those from the Genus Acholeplasma and included Acholeplasma laidlawii (39 reads) and Acholeplasma brassicae (26 reads). The preliminary results show the ability of the MinION for the identification of microorganisms to species level coming from a complex sample. With ongoing optimization of the pipe-line, the number of classified reads are likely to increase. Metagenomics has the potential in animal health for diagnostics of microorganisms present on farms. This would support wprevention rather than a cure approach as is outlined in the DAFMs National Farmed Animal Health Strategy 2017-2022.

Keywords: animal health, buxtonella sulcata, infectious disease, irish dairy cattle, metagenomics, minION, next generation sequencing

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424 Persistent Organic Pollutant Level in Challawa River Basin of Kano State, Nigeria

Authors: Abdulkadir Sarauta

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Almost every type of industrial process involves the release of trace quantity of toxic organic and inorganic compound that up in receiving water bodies, this study was aimed at assessing the Persistent Organic Pollutant Level in Challawa River Basin of Kano State, Nigeria. And the research formed the basis of identifying the presence of PCBs and PAHs in receiving water bodies in the study area, assessing the PCBs and PAHs concentration in receiving water body of Challawa system, evaluate the concentration level of PCBs and PAHs in fishes in the study area, determine the concentration level of PCBs and PAHs in crops irrigated in the study area as well as compare the concentration of PCBs and PAHs with the acceptable limit set by Nigerian, EU, U.S and WHO standard. Data were collected using reconnaissance survey, site inspection, field survey, laboratory experiment as well as secondary data source. A total of 78 samples were collected through stratified systematic random sampling (i.e., 26 samples for each of water, crops and fish) three sampling points were chosen and designated A, B and C along the stretch of the river (i.e. up, middle, and downstream) from Yan Danko Bridge to Tambirawa bridge. The result shows that the Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) was not detected while, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was detected in the whole samples analysed at the trench of Challawa River basin in order to assess the contribution of human activities to global environmental pollution. The total concentrations of ΣPAH and ΣPCB ranges between 0.001 to 0.087mg/l and 0.00 to 0.00mg/l of water samples While, crops samples ranges between 2.0ppb to 8.1ppb and fish samples ranges from 2.0 to 6.7ppb.The whole samples are polluted because most of the parameters analyzed exceed the threshold limits set by WHO, Nigerian, U.S and EU standard. The analytical results revealed that some chemicals are present in water, crops and fishes are significantly very high at Zamawa village which is very close to Challawa industrial estate and also is main effluent discharge point and drinking water around study area is not potable for consumption. Analysis of Variance was obtained by Bartlett’s test performance. There is only significant difference in water because the P < 0.05 level of significant, But there is no difference in crops concentration they have the same performance, likes wise in the fishes. It is said to be of concern to health hazard which will increase incidence of tumor related diseases such as skin, lungs, bladder, gastrointestinal cancer, this show there is high failure of pollution abatement measures in the area. In conclusion, it can be said that industrial activities and effluent has impact on Challawa River basin and its environs especially those that are living in the immediate surroundings. Arising from the findings of this research some recommendations were made the industries should treat their liquid properly by installing modern treatment plants.

Keywords: Challawa River Basin, organic, persistent, pollutant

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423 Inclusion Body Refolding at High Concentration for Large-Scale Applications

Authors: J. Gabrielczyk, J. Kluitmann, T. Dammeyer, H. J. Jördening

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High-level expression of proteins in bacteria often causes production of insoluble protein aggregates, called inclusion bodies (IB). They contain mainly one type of protein and offer an easy and efficient way to get purified protein. On the other hand, proteins in IB are normally devoid of function and therefore need a special treatment to become active. Most refolding techniques aim at diluting the solubilizing chaotropic agents. Unfortunately, optimal refolding conditions have to be found empirically for every protein. For large-scale applications, a simple refolding process with high yields and high final enzyme concentrations is still missing. The constructed plasmid pASK-IBA63b containing the sequence of fructosyltransferase (FTF, EC 2.4.1.162) from Bacillus subtilis NCIMB 11871 was transformed into E. coli BL21 (DE3) Rosetta. The bacterium was cultivated in a fed-batch bioreactor. The produced FTF was obtained mainly as IB. For refolding experiments, five different amounts of IBs were solubilized in urea buffer with protein concentration of 0.2-8.5 g/L. Solubilizates were refolded with batch or continuous dialysis. The refolding yield was determined by measuring the protein concentration of the clear supernatant before and after the dialysis. Particle size was measured by dynamic light scattering. We tested the solubilization properties of fructosyltransferase IBs. The particle size measurements revealed that the solubilization of the aggregates is achieved at urea concentration of 5M or higher and confirmed by absorption spectroscopy. All results confirm previous investigations that refolding yields are dependent upon initial protein concentration. In batch dialysis, the yields dropped from 67% to 12% and 72% to 19% for continuous dialysis, in relation to initial concentrations from 0.2 to 8.5 g/L. Often used additives such as sucrose and glycerol had no effect on refolding yields. Buffer screening indicated a significant increase in activity but also temperature stability of FTF with citrate/phosphate buffer. By adding citrate to the dialysis buffer, we were able to increase the refolding yields to 82-47% in batch and 90-74% in the continuous process. Further experiments showed that in general, higher ionic strength of buffers had major impact on refolding yields; doubling the buffer concentration increased the yields up to threefold. Finally, we achieved corresponding high refolding yields by reducing the chamber volume by 75% and the amount of buffer needed. The refolded enzyme had an optimal activity of 12.5±0.3 x104 units/g. However, detailed experiments with native FTF revealed a reaggregation of the molecules and loss in specific activity depending on the enzyme concentration and particle size. For that reason, we actually focus on developing a process of simultaneous enzyme refolding and immobilization. The results of this study show a new approach in finding optimal refolding conditions for inclusion bodies at high concentrations. Straightforward buffer screening and increase of the ionic strength can optimize the refolding yield of the target protein by 400%. Gentle removal of chaotrope with continuous dialysis increases the yields by an additional 65%, independent of the refolding buffer applied. In general time is the crucial parameter for successful refolding of solubilized proteins.

Keywords: dialysis, inclusion body, refolding, solubilization

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422 Beyond Personal Evidence: Using Learning Analytics and Student Feedback to Improve Learning Experiences

Authors: Shawndra Bowers, Allie Brandriet, Betsy Gilbertson

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This paper will highlight how Auburn Online’s instructional designers leveraged student and faculty data to update and improve online course design and instructional materials. When designing and revising online courses, it can be difficult for faculty to know what strategies are most likely to engage learners and improve educational outcomes in a specific discipline. It can also be difficult to identify which metrics are most useful for understanding and improving teaching, learning, and course design. At Auburn Online, the instructional designers use a suite of data based student’s performance, participation, satisfaction, and engagement, as well as faculty perceptions, to inform sound learning and design principles that guide growth-mindset consultations with faculty. The consultations allow the instructional designer, along with the faculty member, to co-create an actionable course improvement plan. Auburn Online gathers learning analytics from a variety of sources that any instructor or instructional design team may have access to at their own institutions. Participation and performance data, such as page: views, assignment submissions, and aggregate grade distributions, are collected from the learning management system. Engagement data is pulled from the video hosting platform, which includes unique viewers, views and downloads, the minutes delivered, and the average duration each video is viewed. Student satisfaction is also obtained through a short survey that is embedded at the end of each instructional module. This survey is included in each course every time it is taught. The survey data is then analyzed by an instructional designer for trends and pain points in order to identify areas that can be modified, such as course content and instructional strategies, to better support student learning. This analysis, along with the instructional designer’s recommendations, is presented in a comprehensive report to instructors in an hour-long consultation where instructional designers collaborate with the faculty member on how and when to implement improvements. Auburn Online has developed a triage strategy of priority 1 or 2 level changes that will be implemented in future course iterations. This data-informed decision-making process helps instructors focus on what will best work in their teaching environment while addressing which areas need additional attention. As a student-centered process, it has created improved learning environments for students and has been well received by faculty. It has also shown to be effective in addressing the need for improvement while removing the feeling the faculty’s teaching is being personally attacked. The process that Auburn Online uses is laid out, along with the three-tier maintenance and revision guide that will be used over a three-year implementation plan. This information can help others determine what components of the maintenance and revision plan they want to utilize, as well as guide them on how to create a similar approach. The data will be used to analyze, revise, and improve courses by providing recommendations and models of good practices through determining and disseminating best practices that demonstrate an impact on student success.

Keywords: data-driven, improvement, online courses, faculty development, analytics, course design

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421 Barbie in India: A Study of Effects of Barbie in Psychological and Social Health

Authors: Suhrita Saha

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Barbie is a fashion doll manufactured by the American toy company Mattel Inc and it made debut at the American International Toy Fair in New York in 9 March 1959. From being a fashion doll to a symbol of fetishistic commodification, Barbie has come a long way. A Barbie doll is sold every three seconds across the world, which makes the billion dollar brand the world’s most popular doll for the girls. The 11.5 inch moulded plastic doll has a height of 5 feet 9 inches at 1/6 scale. Her vital statistics have been estimated at 36 inches (chest), 18 inches (waist) and 33 inches (hips). Her weight is permanently set at 110 pounds which would be 35 pounds underweight. Ruth Handler, the creator of Barbie wanted a doll that represented adulthood and allowed children to imagine themselves as teenagers or adults. While Barbie might have been intended to be independent, imaginative and innovative, the physical uniqueness does not confine the doll to the status of a play thing. It is a cultural icon but with far reaching critical implications. The doll is a commodity bearing more social value than practical use value. The way Barbie is produced represents industrialization and commodification of the process of symbolic production. And this symbolic production and consumption is a standardized planned one that produce stereotypical ‘pseudo-individuality’ and suppresses cultural alternatives. Children are being subject to and also arise as subjects in this consumer context. A very gendered, physiologically dissected sexually charged symbolism is imposed upon children (both male and female), childhood, their social worlds, identity, and relationship formation. Barbie is also very popular among Indian children. While the doll is essentially an imaginative representation of the West, it is internalized by the Indian sensibilities. Through observation and questionnaire-based interview within a sample population of adolescent children (primarily female, a few male) and parents (primarily mothers) in Kolkata, an Indian metropolis, the paper puts forth findings of sociological relevance. 1. Barbie creates, recreates, and accentuates already existing divides between the binaries like male- female, fat- thin, sexy- nonsexy, beauty- brain and more. 2. The Indian girl child in her associative process with Barbie wants to be like her and commodifies her own self. The male child also readily accepts this standardized commodification. Definition of beauty is thus based on prejudice and stereotype. 3. Not being able to become Barbie creates health issues both psychological and physiological varying from anorexia to obesity as well as personality disorder. 4. From being a plaything Barbie becomes the game maker. Barbie along with many other forms of simulation further creates a consumer culture and market for all kind of fitness related hyper enchantment and subsequent disillusionment. The construct becomes the reality and the real gets lost in the play world. The paper would thus argue that Barbie from being an innocuous doll transports itself into becoming social construct with long term and irreversible adverse impact.

Keywords: barbie, commodification, personality disorder, sterotype

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420 The Direct and Indirect Effects of Buddhism on Fertility Rates in General and in Specific Socioeconomic Circumstances of Women

Authors: Szerena Vajkovszki

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Our worldwide aging society, especially in developed countries, including members of EU, raise sophisticated sociological and economic issues and challenges to be met. As declining fertility has outstanding influence underlying this trend, numerous studies have attempted to identify, describe, measure and interpret contributing factors of the fertility rate, out of which relatively few revealed the impact of religion. Identified, examined and influential factors affecting birth rate as stated by the present scientific publications are more than a dozen out of which religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms were examined first with a special focus on abortion and forms of birth control. Nevertheless, connected to religion, not only these topics are crucial regarding fertility, but many others as well. Among many religious guidelines, we can separate two major categories: direct and indirect. The aim of this research was to understand what are the most crucial identified (family values, gender related behaviors, religious sentiments) and not yet identified most influential contributing religious factors. Above identifying these direct or indirect factors, it is also important to understand to what extent and how do they influence fertility, which requires a wider (inter-discipline) perspective. As proved by previous studies religion has also an influential role on health, mental state, well-being, working activity and many other components that are also related to fertility rates. All these components are inter-related. Hence direct and indirect religious effects can only be well understood if we figure out all necessary fields and their interaction. With the help of semi-structured opened interviews taking place in different countries, it was showed that indeed Buddhism has significant direct and indirect effect on fertility. Hence the initial hypothesis was proved. However, the interviews showed an overall positive effect; the results could only serve for a general understanding of how Buddhism affects fertility. Evolution of Buddhism’s direct and indirect influence may vary in different nations and circumstances according to their specific environmental attributes. According to the local patterns, with special regard to women’s position and role in the society, outstandingly indirect influences could show diversifications. So it is advisory to investigate more for a deeper and clearer understanding of how Buddhism function in different socioeconomic circumstances. For this purpose, a specific and detailed analysis was developed from recent related researches about women’s position (including family roles and economic activity) in Hungary with the intention to be able to have a complex vision of crucial socioeconomic factors influencing fertility. Further interviews and investigations are to be done in order to show a complex vision of Buddhism’s direct and indirect effect on fertility in Hungary to be able to support recommendations and policies pointing to higher fertility rates in the field of social policies. The present research could serve as a general starting point or a common basis for further specific national investigations.

Keywords: Buddhism, children, fertility, gender roles, religion, women

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419 Monsoon Controlled Mercury Transportation in Ganga Alluvial Plain, Northern India and Its Implication on Global Mercury Cycle

Authors: Anjali Singh, Ashwani Raju, Vandana Devi, Mohmad Mohsin Atique, Satyendra Singh, Munendra Singh

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India is the biggest consumer of mercury and, consequently, a major emitter too. The increasing mercury contamination in India’s water resources has gained widespread attention and, therefore, atmospheric deposition is of critical concern. However, little emphasis was placed on the role of precipitation in the aquatic mercury cycle of the Ganga Alluvial Plain which provides drinking water to nearly 7% of the world’s human population. A majority of the precipitation here occurs primarily in 10% duration of the year in the monsoon season. To evaluate the sources and transportation of mercury, water sample analysis has been conducted from two selected sites near Lucknow, which have a strong hydraulic gradient towards the river. 31 groundwater samples from Jehta village (26°55’15’’N; 80°50’21’’E; 119 m above mean sea level) and 31 river water samples from the Behta Nadi (a tributary of the Gomati River draining into the Ganga River) were collected during the monsoon season on every alternate day between 01 July to 30 August 2019. The total mercury analysis was performed by using Flow Injection Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS)-Mercury Hybride System, and daily rainfall data was collected from the India Meteorological Department, Amausi, Lucknow. The ambient groundwater and river-water concentrations were both 2-4 ng/L as there is no known geogenic source of mercury found in the area. Before the onset of the monsoon season, the groundwater and the river-water recorded mercury concentrations two orders of magnitude higher than the ambient concentrations, indicating the regional transportation of the mercury from the non-point source into the aquatic environment. Maximum mercury concentrations in groundwater and river-water were three orders of magnitude higher than the ambient concentrations after the onset of the monsoon season characterizing the considerable mobilization and redistribution of mercury by monsoonal precipitation. About 50% of both of the water samples were reported mercury below the detection limit, which can be mostly linked to the low intensity of precipitation in August and also with the dilution factor by precipitation. The highest concentration ( > 1200 ng/L) of mercury in groundwater was reported after 6-days lag from the first precipitation peak. Two high concentration peaks (>1000 ng/L) in river-water were separately correlated with the surface flow and groundwater outflow of mercury. We attribute the elevated mercury concentration in both of the water samples before the precipitation event to mercury originating from the extensive use of agrochemicals in mango farming in the plain. However, the elevated mercury concentration during the onset of monsoon appears to increase in area wetted with atmospherically deposited mercury, which migrated down from surface water to groundwater as downslope migration is a fundamental mechanism seen in rivers of the alluvial plain. The present study underscores the significance of monsoonal precipitation in the transportation of mercury to drinking water resources of the Ganga Alluvial Plain. This study also suggests that future research must be pursued for a better understand of the human health impact of mercury contamination and for quantification of the role of Ganga Alluvial Plain in the Global Mercury Cycle.

Keywords: drinking water resources, Ganga alluvial plain, india, mercury

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418 Measuring Enterprise Growth: Pitfalls and Implications

Authors: N. Šarlija, S. Pfeifer, M. Jeger, A. Bilandžić

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Enterprise growth is generally considered as a key driver of competitiveness, employment, economic development and social inclusion. As such, it is perceived to be a highly desirable outcome of entrepreneurship for scholars and decision makers. The huge academic debate resulted in the multitude of theoretical frameworks focused on explaining growth stages, determinants and future prospects. It has been widely accepted that enterprise growth is most likely nonlinear, temporal and related to the variety of factors which reflect the individual, firm, organizational, industry or environmental determinants of growth. However, factors that affect growth are not easily captured, instruments to measure those factors are often arbitrary, causality between variables and growth is elusive, indicating that growth is not easily modeled. Furthermore, in line with heterogeneous nature of the growth phenomenon, there is a vast number of measurement constructs assessing growth which are used interchangeably. Differences among various growth measures, at conceptual as well as at operationalization level, can hinder theory development which emphasizes the need for more empirically robust studies. In line with these highlights, the main purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to compare structure and performance of three growth prediction models based on the main growth measures: Revenues, employment and assets growth. Secondly, to explore the prospects of financial indicators, set as exact, visible, standardized and accessible variables, to serve as determinants of enterprise growth. Finally, to contribute to the understanding of the implications on research results and recommendations for growth caused by different growth measures. The models include a range of financial indicators as lag determinants of the enterprises’ performances during the 2008-2013, extracted from the national register of the financial statements of SMEs in Croatia. The design and testing stage of the modeling used the logistic regression procedures. Findings confirm that growth prediction models based on different measures of growth have different set of predictors. Moreover, the relationship between particular predictors and growth measure is inconsistent, namely the same predictor positively related to one growth measure may exert negative effect on a different growth measure. Overall, financial indicators alone can serve as good proxy of growth and yield adequate predictive power of the models. The paper sheds light on both methodology and conceptual framework of enterprise growth by using a range of variables which serve as a proxy for the multitude of internal and external determinants, but are unlike them, accessible, available, exact and free of perceptual nuances in building up the model. Selection of the growth measure seems to have significant impact on the implications and recommendations related to growth. Furthermore, the paper points out to potential pitfalls of measuring and predicting growth. Overall, the results and the implications of the study are relevant for advancing academic debates on growth-related methodology, and can contribute to evidence-based decisions of policy makers.

Keywords: growth measurement constructs, logistic regression, prediction of growth potential, small and medium-sized enterprises

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417 Correlates of Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Knowledge and Acceptance Attitude Towards People Living with HIV/AIDS: A Cross-Sectional Study among Unmarried Young Women in Uganda

Authors: Tesfaldet Mekonnen Estifanos, Chen Hui, Afewerki Weldezgi

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Background: Youth in general and young females in particular, remain at the center of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Sexual risk-taking among young unmarried women is relatively high and are the most vulnerable and highly exposed to HIV/AIDS. Improvements in the status of HIV/AIDS knowledge and acceptance attitude towards people living with HIV (PLWHIV) plays a great role in averting the incidence of HIV/AIDS. Thus, the aim of the study was to explore the level and correlates of HIV/AIDS knowledge and accepting attitude toward PLWHIV. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the Uganda Demographic Health Survey 2016 (UDHS-2016). National level representative household surveys using a multistage cluster probability sampling method, face to face interviews with standard questionnaires were performed. Unmarried women aged 15-24 years with a sample size of 2019 were selected from the total sample of 8674 women aged 15-49 years and were analyzed using SPSS version 23. Independent variables such as age, religion, educational level, residence, and wealth index were included. Two binary outcome variables (comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge and acceptance attitude toward PLWHIV) were utilized. We used the chi-square test as well as multivariate regression analysis to explore correlations of explanatory variables with the outcome variables. The results were reported by odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI), taking a p-value less than 0.05 as significant. Results: Almost all (99.3%) of the unmarried women aged 15-24 years were aware of HIV/AIDS, but only 51.2% had adequate comprehensive knowledge on HIV/AIDS. Only 69.4% knew both methods: using a condom every time had sex, and having only one faithful uninfected partner can prevent HIV/AIDS transmission. About 66.6% of the unmarried women reject at least two common local misconceptions about HIV/AIDS. Moreover, an alarmingly few (20.3%) of the respondents had a positive acceptance attitude to PLWHIV. On multivariate analysis, age (20-24 years), living in urban, being educated and wealthier, were predictors of having adequate comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge. On the other hand, research participants with adequate comprehensive knowledge about HIV/AIDS were highly likely (OR, 1.94 95% CI, 1.52-2.46) to have a positive acceptance attitude to PLWHIV than those with inadequate knowledge. Respondents with no education, Muslim, and Pentecostal religion were emerged less likely to have a positive acceptance attitude to PLWHIV. Conclusion: This study found out the highly accepted level of awareness, but the knowledge and positive acceptance attitude are not encouraging. Thus, expanding access to comprehensive sexuality and strengthening educational campaigns on HIV/AIDS in communities, health facilities, and schools is needed with a greater focus on disadvantaged women having low educational level, poor socioeconomic status, and those residing in rural areas. Sexual risk behaviors among the most affected people - young women have also a role in the spread of HIV/AIDS. Hence, further research assessing the significant contributing factors for sexual risk-taking might have a positive impact on the fight against HIV/AIDS.

Keywords: acceptance attitude, HIV/AIDS, knowledge, unmarried women

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416 The Walkway Project: An Exploration of Informal Public Space Upgrading in Gugulethu, Cape Town

Authors: Kathryn Ewing

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Safe and accessible public spaces are vital elements of our South African cities. Public spaces hold the potential to act as important, vibrant places for learning, exchange, and practice. Public walkways, however, are some of the most neglected and extremely dangerous public spaces experienced in the local neighborhood of Gugulethu in Cape Town. Walkways feel insignificant, being recognized as informal and undetermined or retain complex fragments of formal erven. They are generally out of sight connecting minor streets and informal settlements. Community residents refer to the walkways as unsafe and dirty spaces. Local authorities allocate minimal to no municipal budgets nor maintenance plans resulting in a lack of basic services, particularly lighting and green infrastructure. ‘The Walkway Project’ presents a series of urban stories collected from co-design workshops, emotional mapping exercises, and fieldwork, including urban walks and urban talks. The narrative interprets the socio-spatial practice and complexity of informal public space in Gugulethu, Cape Town. The Walkway Project research, interrelated to the Master of Urban Design teaching and design-research studio, has a strong focus on participatory and engaged learning and action research methodology within a deliberate pedagogy. A consolidated urban design implementation plan exposes the impact and challenges of waste and water, opening the debate on relevant local solutions for resilience and safety in Cape Town. A small and neglected passage connecting two streets, commonly referred to as iThemba Walkway, is presented as a case study to show-case strategic urban design intervention strategies for urban upgrading. The iThemba walkway is a community-driven project that demonstrates active and responsible co-design and participatory development opportunities. In March 2021, when visited on an urban walk, the public space was covered by rubble and solid waste. By April 2021, the community cleaned the walkway and created an accessible passage for the school children to pass. Numerous co-design workshops have taken place over the past year. The walkway has emerged as a public space upgrading project facilitated, motivated, and implemented by multiple local partners and residents. Social maps from urban walks and talks illustrate the transformation of iThemba Walkway into an inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable urban space, linked to Sustainable Development Goal number 11, sustainable cities and communities. The outcomes of the upgrading project facilitate a deeper understanding of co-design methods, urban upgrading processes, and monitoring of public space and informal urbanism.

Keywords: informal, public space, resilience, safety, upgrade, walkways

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415 Developing an Innovative General Foundation Programme (GFP) and an IELTS Centre in a New Military College

Authors: Jessica Peart, Sarim Al Zubaidy

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This paper examines the main dialogic and reformative aspects that have constituted the developing implementation of an English language module in a common pre-sessional program in Oman, the General Foundation Program (GFP), at the new Military Technological College (MTC), in Oman’s capital, muscat. The MTC is the first of its kind in the country to merge military with academic training and has been running programs since September 2013 over five trimesters to date, receiving external validation and accreditation from the University of Portsmouth (UoP), UK. From this starting point, We will provide context on the parameters that necessitated delivery of this common but specially tailored pre-sessional program at the MTC and outline in detail how the English module with integrated key study skills and personal tutoring support was initially conceived before operations commenced and cooperation between all stakeholders took practical shape. This enquiry traces how stakeholders from students to faculty, college boards and collaborative university partners have considered and redefined the in part static and dynamic boundaries of their larger and smaller scale stakes. With regard to the widely held recognition that pre-sessional students require training in transferable study skills in order to succeed at university, we will chart the subsequent and ongoing adjustments made to the generic, pastoral and integrated elements of that program. Driving this concerted effort has been at base the need for a GFP concerned with three criteria for incoming MTC students cadets, namely to develop candidate’s rounded capacity for intellectual, technical and physical skill as both students and cadets, to generate linguistic proficiency and discerning use of appropriate language registers and to allow personal and collective time for adjustment to a multilayered, brand new environment, while also working within a regulated timeline for academic progression to the MTC diploma or degree levels. The English Department teaching staff’s facilitation of the initial program’s methodologies and timeframe for the GFP English module has garnered a keen and diverse sense of the holistic student cadet experience, which a range of alterations to the program demonstrate. These include alterations to the class types and overall program duration as well as greater multiplicity of exposure within learning environments. In surveying the impact of these composite maneuvers and challenges within a proactive and evolving context of teaching and learning, it is finally demonstrated how student cadet levels of productivity and self-reliance on the one hand and retention issues on the other are being gainfully steered towards progression within a framework for inclusive reciprocal dialogue, gathering thereby civilian and military backgrounds toward uniquely united ends.

Keywords: English module transferable skills, faculty dialogue, governance structure, overarching regulatory agencies

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414 Comparative Assessment of Rainwater Management Alternatives for Dhaka City: Case Study of North South University

Authors: S. M. Islam, Wasi Uddin, Nazmun Nahar

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Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, faces two contrasting problems; excess of water during monsoon season and scarcity of water during dry season. The first problem occurs due to rapid urbanization and mismanagement of rainwater whereas the second problem is related to climate change and increasing urban population. Inadequate drainage system also worsens the overall water management scenario in Dhaka city. Dhaka has a population density of 115,000 people per square miles. This results in a 2.5 billion liter water demand every day, 87% of which is fulfilled by groundwater. Over dependency on groundwater has resulted in more than 200 feet drop in the last 50 years and continues to decline at a rate of 9 feet per year. Considering the gravity of the problem, it is high time that practitioners, academicians and policymakers consider different water management practices and look into their cumulative impacts at different scales. The present study assesses different rainwater management options for North South University of Bangladesh and recommends the most feasible and sustainable rainwater management measure. North South University currently accommodates over 20,000 students, faculty members, and administrative staffs. To fulfill the water demand, there are two deep tube wells, which bring up approximately 150,000 liter of water every hour. The annual water demand is approximately 103 million liters. Dhaka receives approximately 1800 mm of rainfall every year. For the current study, two academic buildings and one administrative building consist of 4924 square meters of rooftop area was selected as catchment area. Both rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge options were analyzed separately. It was estimated that by rainwater harvesting, annually a total of 7.2 million liters of water can be reused which is approximately 7% of the total annual water usage. In the monsoon, rainwater harvesting fulfills 12.2% of the monthly water demand. The approximate cost of the rainwater harvesting system is estimated to be 940975 bdt (USD 11500). For direct groundwater recharge, a system comprises of one de-siltation tank, two recharge tanks and one siltation tank were designed that requires approximately 532788 bdt (USD 6500). The payback period is approximately 7 years and 4 months for the groundwater recharge system whereas the payback period for rainwater harvesting option is approximately 12 years and 4 months. Based on the cost-benefit analysis, the present study finds the groundwater recharge system to be most suitable for North South University. The present study also demonstrates that if only one institution like North South University can add up a substantial amount of water to the aquifer, bringing other institutions in the network has the potential to create significant cumulative impact on replenishing the declining groundwater level of Dhaka city. As an additional benefit, it also prevents large amount of water being discharged into the storm sewers which results in severe flooding in Dhaka city during monsoon.

Keywords: Dhaka, groundwater, harvesting, rainwater, recharge

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
413 Archaeoseismological Evidence for a Possible Destructive Earthquake in the 7th Century AD at the Ancient Sites of Bulla Regia and Chemtou (NW Tunisia): Seismotectonic and Structural Implications

Authors: Abdelkader Soumaya, Noureddine Ben Ayed, Ali Kadri, Said Maouche, Hayet Khayati Ammar, Ahmed Braham

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The historic sites of Bulla Regia and Chemtou are among the most important archaeological monuments in northwestern Tunisia, which flourished as large, wealthy settlements during the Roman and Byzantine periods (2nd to 7th centuries AD). An archaeoseismological study provides the first indications about the impact of a possible ancient strong earthquake in the destruction of these cities. Based on previous archaeological excavation results, including numismatic evidence, pottery, economic meltdown and urban transformation, the abrupt ruin and destruction of the cities of Bulla Regia and Chemtou can be bracketed between 613 and 647 AD. In this study, we carried out the first attempt to use the analysis of earthquake archaeological effects (EAEs) that were observed during our field investigations in these two historic cities. The damage includes different types of EAEs: folds on regular pavements, displaced and deformed vaults, folded walls, tilted walls, collapsed keystones in arches, dipping broken corners, displaced-fallen columns, block extrusions in walls, penetrative fractures in brick-made walls and open fractures on regular pavements. These deformations are spread over 10 different sectors or buildings and include 56 measured EAEs. The structural analysis of the identified EAEs can indicate an ancient destructive earthquake that probably destroyed the Bulla Regia and Chemtou archaeological sites. We then analyzed these measurements using structural geological analysis to obtain the maximum horizontal strain of the ground (e.g., S ₕₘₐₓ) on each building-oriented damage. After the collection and analysis of these strain datasets, we proceed to plot the orientation of Sₕₘₐₓ trajectories on the map of the archaeological site (Bulla Regia). We concluded that the obtained Sₕₘₐₓ trajectories within this site could then be related to the mean direction of ground motion (oscillatory movement of the ground) triggered by a seismic event, as documented for some historical earthquakes across the world. These Sₕₘₐₓ orientations closely match the current active stress field, as highlighted by some instrumental events in northern Tunisia. In terms of the seismic source, we strongly suggest that the reactivation of a neotectonic strike-slip fault trending N50E must be responsible for this probable historic earthquake and the recent instrumental seismicity in this area. This fault segment, affecting the folded quaternary deposits south of Jebel Rebia, passes through the monument of Bulla Regia. Stress inversion of the observed and measured data along this fault shows an N150 - 160 trend of Sₕₘₐₓ under a transpressional tectonic regime, which is quite consistent with the GPS data and the state of the current stress field in this region.

Keywords: NW Tunisia, archaeoseismology, earthquake archaeological effect, bulla regia - Chemtou, seismotectonic, neotectonic fault

Procedia PDF Downloads 17
412 Fake News Domination and Threats on Democratic Systems

Authors: Laura Irimies, Cosmin Irimies

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The public space all over the world is currently confronted with the aggressive assault of fake news that have lately impacted public agenda setting, collective decisions and social attitudes. Top leaders constantly call out most mainstream news as “fake news” and the public opinion get more confused. "Fake news" are generally defined as false, often sensational, information disseminated under the guise of news reporting and has been declared the word of the year 2017 by Collins Dictionary and it also has been one of the most debated socio-political topics of recent years. Websites which, deliberately or not, publish misleading information are often shared on social media where they essentially increase their reach and influence. According to international reports, the exposure to fake news is an undeniable reality all over the world as the exposure to completely invented information goes up to the 31 percent in the US, and it is even bigger in Eastern Europe countries, such as Hungary (42%) and Romania (38%) or in Mediterranean countries, such as Greece (44%) or Turkey (49%), and lower in Northern and Western Europe countries – Germany (9%), Denmark (9%) or Holland (10%). While the study of fake news (mechanism and effects) is still in its infancy, it has become truly relevant as the phenomenon seems to have a growing impact on democratic systems. Studies conducted by the European Commission show that 83% of respondents out of a total of 26,576 interviewees consider the existence of news that misrepresent reality as a threat for democracy. Studies recently conducted at Arizona State University show that people with higher education can more easily spot fake headlines, but over 30 percent of them can still be trapped by fake information. If we were to refer only to some of the most recent situations in Romania, fake news issues and hidden agenda suspicions related to the massive and extremely violent public demonstrations held on August 10th, 2018 with a strong participation of the Romanian diaspora have been massively reflected by the international media and generated serious debates within the European Commission. Considering the above framework, the study raises four main research questions: 1. Is fake news a problem or just a natural consequence of mainstream media decline and the abundance of sources of information? 2. What are the implications for democracy? 3. Can fake news be controlled without restricting fundamental human rights? 4. How could the public be properly educated to detect fake news? The research uses mostly qualitative but also quantitative methods, content analysis of studies, websites and media content, official reports and interviews. The study will prove the real threat fake news represent and also the need for proper media literacy education and will draw basic guidelines for developing a new and essential skill: that of detecting fake in news in a society overwhelmed by sources of information that constantly roll massive amounts of information increasing the risk of misinformation and leading to inadequate public decisions that could affect democratic stability.

Keywords: agenda setting democracy, fake news, journalism, media literacy

Procedia PDF Downloads 99
411 Evaluating the ‘Assembled Educator’ of a Specialized Postgraduate Engineering Course Using Activity Theory and Genre Ecologies

Authors: Simon Winberg

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The landscape of professional postgraduate education is changing: the focus of these programmes is moving from preparing candidates for a life in academia towards a focus of training in expert knowledge and skills to support industry. This is especially pronounced in engineering disciplines where increasingly more complex products are drawing on a depth of knowledge from multiple fields. This connects strongly with the broader notion of Industry 4.0 – where technology and society are being brought together to achieve more powerful and desirable products, but products whose inner workings also are more complex than before. The changes in what we do, and how we do it, has a profound impact on what industry would like universities to provide. One such change is the increased demand for taught doctoral and Masters programmes. These programmes aim to provide skills and training for professionals, to expand their knowledge of state-of-the-art tools and technologies. This paper investigates one such course, namely a Software Defined Radio (SDR) Master’s degree course. The teaching support for this course had to be drawn from an existing pool of academics, none of who were specialists in this field. The paper focuses on the kind of educator, a ‘hybrid academic’, assembled from available academic staff and bolstered by research. The conceptual framework for this paper combines Activity Theory and Genre Ecology. Activity Theory is used to reason about learning and interactions during the course, and Genre Ecology is used to model building and sharing of technical knowledge related to using tools and artifacts. Data were obtained from meetings with students and lecturers, logs, project reports, and course evaluations. The findings show how the course, which was initially academically-oriented, metamorphosed into a tool-dominant peer-learning structure, largely supported by the sharing of technical tool-based knowledge. While the academic staff could address gaps in the participants’ fundamental knowledge of radio systems, the participants brought with them extensive specialized knowledge and tool experience which they shared with the class. This created a complicated dynamic in the class, which centered largely on engagements with technology artifacts, such as simulators, from which knowledge was built. The course was characterized by a richness of ‘epistemic objects’, which is to say objects that had knowledge-generating qualities. A significant portion of the course curriculum had to be adapted, and the learning methods changed to accommodate the dynamic interactions that occurred during classes. This paper explains the SDR Masters course in terms of conflicts and innovations in its activity system, as well as the continually hybridizing genre ecology to show how the structuring and resource-dependence of the course transformed from its initial ‘traditional’ academic structure to a more entangled arrangement over time. It is hoped that insights from this paper would benefit other educators involved in the design and teaching of similar types of specialized professional postgraduate taught programmes.

Keywords: professional postgraduate education, taught masters, engineering education, software defined radio

Procedia PDF Downloads 66
410 Comparison of Artificial Neural Networks and Statistical Classifiers in Olive Sorting Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy

Authors: İsmail Kavdır, M. Burak Büyükcan, Ferhat Kurtulmuş

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Table olive is a valuable product especially in Mediterranean countries. It is usually consumed after some fermentation process. Defects happened naturally or as a result of an impact while olives are still fresh may become more distinct after processing period. Defected olives are not desired both in table olive and olive oil industries as it will affect the final product quality and reduce market prices considerably. Therefore it is critical to sort table olives before processing or even after processing according to their quality and surface defects. However, doing manual sorting has many drawbacks such as high expenses, subjectivity, tediousness and inconsistency. Quality criterions for green olives were accepted as color and free of mechanical defects, wrinkling, surface blemishes and rotting. In this study, it was aimed to classify fresh table olives using different classifiers and NIR spectroscopy readings and also to compare the classifiers. For this purpose, green (Ayvalik variety) olives were classified based on their surface feature properties such as defect-free, with bruised defect and with fly defect using FT-NIR spectroscopy and classification algorithms such as artificial neural networks, ident and cluster. Bruker multi-purpose analyzer (MPA) FT-NIR spectrometer (Bruker Optik, GmbH, Ettlingen Germany) was used for spectral measurements. The spectrometer was equipped with InGaAs detectors (TE-InGaAs internal for reflectance and RT-InGaAs external for transmittance) and a 20-watt high intensity tungsten–halogen NIR light source. Reflectance measurements were performed with a fiber optic probe (type IN 261) which covered the wavelengths between 780–2500 nm, while transmittance measurements were performed between 800 and 1725 nm. Thirty-two scans were acquired for each reflectance spectrum in about 15.32 s while 128 scans were obtained for transmittance in about 62 s. Resolution was 8 cm⁻¹ for both spectral measurement modes. Instrument control was done using OPUS software (Bruker Optik, GmbH, Ettlingen Germany). Classification applications were performed using three classifiers; Backpropagation Neural Networks, ident and cluster classification algorithms. For these classification applications, Neural Network tool box in Matlab, ident and cluster modules in OPUS software were used. Classifications were performed considering different scenarios; two quality conditions at once (good vs bruised, good vs fly defect) and three quality conditions at once (good, bruised and fly defect). Two spectrometer readings were used in classification applications; reflectance and transmittance. Classification results obtained using artificial neural networks algorithm in discriminating good olives from bruised olives, from olives with fly defect and from the olive group including both bruised and fly defected olives with success rates respectively changing between 97 and 99%, 61 and 94% and between 58.67 and 92%. On the other hand, classification results obtained for discriminating good olives from bruised ones and also for discriminating good olives from fly defected olives using the ident method ranged between 75-97.5% and 32.5-57.5%, respectfully; results obtained for the same classification applications using the cluster method ranged between 52.5-97.5% and between 22.5-57.5%.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, statistical classifiers, NIR spectroscopy, reflectance, transmittance

Procedia PDF Downloads 224
409 Preventative Programs for At-Risk Families of Child Maltreatment: Using Home Visiting and Intergenerational Relationships

Authors: Kristina Gordon

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One in three children in the United States is a victim of a maltreatment investigation, and about one in nine children has a substantiated investigation. Home visiting is one of several preventative strategies rooted in an early childhood approach that fosters maternal, infant, and early childhood health, protection, and growth. In the United States, 88% of states report administering home visiting programs or state-designed models. The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review on home visiting programs in the United States focused on the prevention of child abuse and neglect. This systematic review included 17 articles which found that most of the studies reported optimistic results. Common across studies was program content related to (1) typical child development, (2) parenting education, and (3) child physical health. Although several factors common to home visiting and parenting interventions have been identified, no research has examined the common components of manualized home visiting programs to prevent child maltreatment. Child maltreatment can be addressed with home visiting programs with evidence-based components and cultural adaptations that increase prevention by assisting families in tackling the risk factors they face. An innovative approach to child maltreatment prevention is bringing together at-risk families with the aging community. This innovative approach was prompted due to existing home visitation programs only focusing on improving skillsets and providing temporary relationships. This innovative approach can provide the opportunity for families to build a relationship with an aging individual who can share their wisdom, skills, compassion, love, and guidance, to support families in their well-being and decrease child maltreatment occurrence. Families would be identified if they experience any of the risk factors, including parental substance abuse, parental mental illness, domestic violence, and poverty. Families would also be identified as at risk if they lack supportive relationships such as grandparents or relatives. Families would be referred by local agencies such as medical clinics, hospitals, schools, etc., that have interactions with families regularly. The aging community would be recruited at local housing communities and community centers. An aging individual would be identified by the elderly community when there is a need or interest in a relationship by or for the individual. Cultural considerations would be made when assessing for compatibility between the families and aging individuals. The pilot program will consist of a small group of participants to allow manageable results to evaluate the efficacy of the program. The pilot will include pre-and post-surveys to evaluate the impact of the program. From the results, data would be created to determine the efficacy as well as the sufficiency of the details of the pilot. The pilot would also be evaluated on whether families were referred to Child Protective Services during the pilot as it relates to the goal of decreasing child maltreatment. The ideal findings will display a decrease in child maltreatment and an increase in family well-being for participants.

Keywords: child maltreatment, home visiting, neglect, preventative, abuse

Procedia PDF Downloads 92
408 The Effect of Online Analyzer Malfunction on the Performance of Sulfur Recovery Unit and Providing a Temporary Solution to Reduce the Emission Rate

Authors: Hamid Reza Mahdipoor, Mehdi Bahrami, Mohammad Bodaghi, Seyed Ali Akbar Mansoori

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Nowadays, with stricter limitations to reduce emissions, considerable penalties are imposed if pollution limits are exceeded. Therefore, refineries, along with focusing on improving the quality of their products, are also focused on producing products with the least environmental impact. The duty of the sulfur recovery unit (SRU) is to convert H₂S gas coming from the upstream units to elemental sulfur and minimize the burning of sulfur compounds to SO₂. The Claus process is a common process for converting H₂S to sulfur, including a reaction furnace followed by catalytic reactors and sulfur condensers. In addition to a Claus section, SRUs usually consist of a tail gas treatment (TGT) section to decrease the concentration of SO₂ in the flue gas below the emission limits. To operate an SRU properly, the flow rate of combustion air to the reaction furnace must be adjusted so that the Claus reaction is performed according to stoichiometry. Accurate control of the air demand leads to an optimum recovery of sulfur during the flow and composition fluctuations in the acid gas feed. Therefore, the major control system in the SRU is the air demand control loop, which includes a feed-forward control system based on predetermined feed flow rates and a feed-back control system based on the signal from the tail gas online analyzer. The use of online analyzers requires compliance with the installation and operation instructions. Unfortunately, most of these analyzers in Iran are out of service for different reasons, like the low importance of environmental issues and a lack of access to after-sales services due to sanctions. In this paper, an SRU in Iran was simulated and calibrated using industrial experimental data. Afterward, the effect of the malfunction of the online analyzer on the performance of SRU was investigated using the calibrated simulation. The results showed that an increase in the SO₂ concentration in the tail gas led to an increase in the temperature of the reduction reactor in the TGT section. This increase in temperature caused the failure of TGT and increased the concentration of SO₂ from 750 ppm to 35,000 ppm. In addition, the lack of a control system for the adjustment of the combustion air caused further increases in SO₂ emissions. In some processes, the major variable cannot be controlled directly due to difficulty in measurement or a long delay in the sampling system. In these cases, a secondary variable, which can be measured more easily, is considered to be controlled. With the correct selection of this variable, the main variable is also controlled along with the secondary variable. This strategy for controlling a process system is referred to as inferential control" and is considered in this paper. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis was performed to investigate the sensitivity of other measurable parameters to input disturbances. The results revealed that the output temperature of the first Claus reactor could be used for inferential control of the combustion air. Applying this method to the operation led to maximizing the sulfur recovery in the Claus section.

Keywords: sulfur recovery, online analyzer, inferential control, SO₂ emission

Procedia PDF Downloads 45
407 Women's Entrepreneurship in Mena Region: Gem Key Learnings

Authors: Fatima Boutaleb

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Entrepreneurship proves to be crucial for the economic growth and development, since it contributes to job creation and the improvement of the overall productivity thus generating a positive impact upon society at various levels. Promoting entrepreneurship stimulates therefore economic diversity that is key to the betterment and/or maintaining of the standard of living. In fact, recent research suggests that entrepreneurship contributes to development by creating businesses and jobs, stimulating innovation, creating social capital across borders, and channeling political and financial capital. However, different research studies indicate that among the main factors impeding the entrepreneurship are politico-economic as socio-cultural problems, with an intensity for those related to young people and to women. In the MENA region, discrimination inherent in gender is alarming: Only one woman in eight runs her own business against 1 in 3 men. In most countries, young women and young men are facing problems involving access to finance, inadequate infrastructure, lack of support and, in general, an ecosystem that is rather unfavorable. According to the International Labor Organization, North Africa and the Middle East has the highest unemployment rate in all other regions of the world. In other hand, nearly a quarter of the population under 30 is unemployed and youth unemployment costs more than $40 billion each year to the region. In the current context, the situations in the Middle East and North Africa region are singular, both in terms of demographic trends and socio-economic issues around the employment of a large and better trained youth, but still strongly affected by unemployment and under-employment. According to a study published in 2015 by McKinsey, the world gain 26% of additional GDP (47% in the MENA region), more than 28 trillion dollars by 2025, if women came to participate, as well as men, to the economy. Promoting entrepreneurship represents an excellent alternative for the countries whose productive fabric fails to integrate the contingent of young people entering the job market each year. The MENA region, presenting entrepreneurial activity rates below those of other regions in terms of comparable development, has undoubtedly leeway at this level, even though the region displays large national heterogeneity, namely in the priority given to the promotion of entrepreneurship. The objective of this article is therefore to examine the women entrepreneurial vocation in the MENA region, to see to what extent research on the determinant of gender can provide information on the trend of the emerging entrepreneurial activity whether driven by necessity or by opportunity and, on this basis, to submit public policy proposals for the improvement of the mechanisms of inclusion among the youth women people. The objective is not to analyze the causality models but rather to identify the entrepreneurial construct specific to the MENA region via the analysis of GEM data from 2017 to 2019 among adults belonging to 10 countries of the MENA region. Notably, the study shows that inclusion of young women may be enhanced. These disadvantaged segments frequently intend to become entrepreneurs, but they tend not to enact their vocational intentions.

Keywords: economic development, entrepreneurial activity, GEM, gender, informal sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 73
406 Intervening between Family Functioning and Depressive Symptoms: Effect of Deprivation of Liberty, Self-Efficacy and Differentiation of Self

Authors: Jasna Hrncic

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Poor family relations predict depression, but also to other mental health issues. Mediating effect of self-efficacy and differentiation of self and moderating effect of decreased accessibility and/or success of other adaptive and defensive mechanisms for overcoming social disadvantages could explain depression as a specific outcome of dysfunctional family relations. The present study analyzes the mediation effect of self-efficacy and differentiation of self from poor family functioning to depressive symptoms and the moderation effect of deprivation of liberty on the listed mediation effect. Deprivation of liberty has, as a general consequence, a decreased accessibility and/or success of many adaptive and defensive mechanisms. It is hypothesized that: 1) self-efficacy and differentiation of self will mediate between family functioning and depressiveness in the total sample, and 2) deprivation of liberty will moderate the stated relations. Cross-sectional study was conducted among 323 male juveniles in Serbia divided in three groups: 98 adolescents deprived of their liberty due to antisocial behavior (incarcerated antisocial group - IAG), 121 adolescents with antisocial behavior in their natural setting (antisocial control group - CAG) and 105 adolescents in general population (general control group - CGG). The CAG was included along with GCG to control the possible influence that comorbidity of antisocial behavior and depressiveness could have on results. Instruments for family relations assessment were: for a whole family of origin the emotional exchange scale and individuation scale from GRADIR by Knezevic, and for a relationship with mother PCS-YSR and CRPBI by barber, and intimacy, rejection, sacrifice, punishment, demands, control and internal control by Opacic and Kos. Differentiation of self (DOS) is measured by emotional self scale (Opacic), self-efficacy (SE) by general incompetence scale by Bezinovic, and depression by BDI (Back), CES-D (Radloff) and D6R (Momirovic). Two-path structural equation modeling based on most commonly reported fit indices, showed that the mediation model had unfavorable fit to our data for total sample [(χ2 (1, N = 324) = 13.73); RMSEA= .20 (90% CI= [.12, .30]); CFI= .98; NFI= .97; AIC=31.73]. Path model provided an adequate fit to the data only for AIG - and not to the data from ACG and GCG. SE and DOS mediated the relationship between PFF and depressiveness. Test of the indirect effects revealed that 23.85% of PFF influences on depressiveness is mediated by these two mediators (the quotient of mediated effect = .24). Test of specific indirect effects showed that SE mediates 22.17%, while DOS mediates 1.67% of PFF influence on depressiveness. Lack of expected mediation effect could be explained by missing other potential mediators (i.e., relationship with that father, social skills, self-esteem) and lower variability of both predictor and criterion variable due to their low levels on the whole sample and on control subsamples. Results suggested that inaccessibility and/or successfulness of other adaptive and defensive mechanisms for overcoming social disadvantages has a strong impact on the mediation effect of self/efficacy and differentiation of self from poor family functioning to depressive symptoms. Further researches could include other potential mediators and a sample of clinically depressed people.

Keywords: antisocial behavior, mediating effect, moderating effect, natural setting, incarceration

Procedia PDF Downloads 93
405 The Effect of Extensive Mosquito Migration on Dengue Control as Revealed by Phylogeny of Dengue Vector Aedes aegypti

Authors: M. D. Nirmani, K. L. N. Perera, G. H. Galhena

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Dengue has become one of the most important arbo-viral disease in all tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Aedes aegypti, is the principal vector of the virus, vary in both epidemiological and behavioral characteristics, which could be finely measured through DNA sequence comparison at their population level. Such knowledge in the population differences can assist in implementation of effective vector control strategies allowing to make estimates of the gene flow and adaptive genomic changes, which are important predictors of the spread of Wolbachia infection or insecticide resistance. As such, this study was undertaken to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of Ae. aegypti from Galle and Colombo, Sri Lanka, based on the ribosomal protein region which spans between two exons, in order to understand the geographical distribution of genetically distinct mosquito clades and its impact on mosquito control measures. A 320bp DNA region spanning from 681-930 bp, corresponding to the ribosomal protein, was sequenced in 62 Ae. aegypti larvae collected from Galle (N=30) and Colombo (N=32), Sri Lanka. The sequences were aligned using ClustalW and the haplotypes were determined with DnaSP 5.10. Phylogenetic relationships among haplotypes were constructed using the maximum likelihood method under Tamura 3 parameter model in MEGA 7.0.14 including three previously reported sequences of Australian (N=2) and Brazilian (N=1) Ae. aegypti. The bootstrap support was calculated using 1000 replicates and the tree was rooted using Aedes notoscriptus (GenBank accession No. KJ194101). Among all sequences, nineteen different haplotypes were found among which five haplotypes were shared between 80% of mosquitoes in the two populations. Seven haplotypes were unique to each of the population. Phylogenetic tree revealed two basal clades and a single derived clade. All observed haplotypes of the two Ae. aegypti populations were distributed in all the three clades, indicating a lack of genetic differentiation between populations. The Brazilian Ae. aegypti haplotype and one of the Australian haplotypes were grouped together with the Sri Lankan basal haplotype in the same basal clade, whereas the other Australian haplotype was found in the derived clade. Phylogram showed that Galle and Colombo Ae. aegypti populations are highly related to each other despite the large geographic distance (129 Km) indicating a substantial genetic similarity between them. This may have probably arisen from passive migration assisted by human travelling and trade through both land and water as the two areas are bordered by the sea. In addition, studied Sri Lankan mosquito populations were closely related to Australian and Brazilian samples. Probably this might have caused by shipping industry between the three countries as all of them are fully or partially enclosed by sea. For example, illegal fishing boats migrating to Australia by sea is perhaps a good mean of transportation of all life stages of mosquitoes from Sri Lanka. These findings indicate that extensive mosquito migrations occur between populations not only within the country, but also among other countries in the world which might be a main barrier to the successful vector control measures.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, dengue control, extensive mosquito migration, haplotypes, phylogeny, ribosomal protein

Procedia PDF Downloads 158
404 Legislating for Public Participation and Environmental Justice: Whether It Solves or Prevent Disputes

Authors: Deborah A. Hollingworth

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The key tenets associated with ‘environmental justice’, were first articulated in a global context in Principle 10 of the United Nations Declaration on Environment and Development at Rio de Janeiro in 1992 (the Rio Declaration). The elements can be conflated to require: public participation in decision-making; the provision of relevant information to those affected about environmental hazards issues; access to judicial and administrative proceeding; and the opportunity for redress where remedy where required. This paper examines the legislative and regulatory arrangements in place for the implementation these elements in a number of industrialised democracies, including Australia. Most have, over time made regulatory provision for these elements – even if they are not directly attributed Principle 10 or the notion of environmental justice. The paper proposes, that of these elements the most critical to the achievement of good environmental governance, is a legislated recognition and role of public participation. However, the paper considers that notwithstanding sound legislative and regulatory practices, environmental regulators frequently struggle, where there is a complex decision-making scenario or long-standing enmity between a community and industry to achieve effective engagement with the public. This study considers the dilemma confronted by environmental regulators to given meaningful effect to the principles enshrined in Principle 10 – that even when the legislative expression of Principle 10 is adhered to – does not prevent adverse outcomes. In particular, it considers, as a case study a prominent environmental incident in 2014 in Australia in which an open-cut coalmine located in the regional township of Morwell caught fire during bushfire season. The fire, which took 45 days to be extinguished had a significant and adverse impact on the community in question, but compounded a complex, and sometime antagonistic history between the mine and township. The case study exemplifies the complex factors that will often be present between industry, the public and regulatory bodies, and which confound the concept of environmental justice, and the elements of enshrined in the Principle 10 of the Rio Declaration. The study proposes that such tensions and complex examples will commonly be the reality of communities and regulators. However, to give practical effect to outcomes contemplated by Principle 10, the paper considers that regulators will may consider public intervention more broadly as including early interventions and formal opportunities for “conferencing” between industry, community and regulators. These initiatives help to develop a shared understanding and identification of issues. It is proposed that although important, options for “alternative dispute resolution” are not sufficiently preventative, as they come into play when a dispute has arise. Similarly “restorative justice” programs, while important once an incident or adverse environmental outcome has occurred, are post event and therefore necessarily limited. The paper considers the examples of how public participation at the outset – at the time of a proposal, before issues arise or eventuate to ensure, is demonstrably the most effective way for building commonality and an agreed methodology for working to resolve issues once they occur.

Keywords: environmental justice, alternative dispute resolution, domestic environmental law, international environmental law

Procedia PDF Downloads 276
403 The Bidirectional Effect between Parental Burnout and the Child’s Internalized and/or Externalized Behaviors

Authors: Aline Woine, Moïra Mikolajczak, Virginie Dardier, Isabelle Roskam

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Background information: Becoming a parent is said to be the happiest event one can ever experience in one’s life. This popular (and almost absolute) truth–which no reasonable and decent human being would ever dare question on pain of being singled out as a bad parent–contrasts with the nuances that reality offers. Indeed, while many parents do thrive in their parenting role, some others falter and become progressively overwhelmed by their parenting role, ineluctably caught in a spiral of exhaustion. Parental burnout (henceforth PB) sets in when parental demands (stressors) exceed parental resources. While it is now generally acknowledged that PB affects the parent’s behavior in terms of neglect and violence toward their offspring, little is known about the impact that the syndrome might have on the children’s internalized (anxious and depressive symptoms, somatic complaints, etc.) and/or externalized (irritability, violence, aggressiveness, conduct disorder, oppositional disorder, etc.) behaviors. Furthermore, at the time of writing, to our best knowledge, no research has yet tested the reverse effect, namely, that of the child's internalized and/or externalized behaviors on the onset and/or maintenance of parental burnout symptoms. Goals and hypotheses: The present pioneering research proposes to fill an important gap in the existing literature related to PB by investigating the bidirectional effect between PB and the child’s internalized and/or externalized behaviors. Relying on a cross-lagged longitudinal study with three waves of data collection (4 months apart), our study tests a transactional model with bidirectional and recursive relations between observed variables and at the three waves, as well as autoregressive paths and cross-sectional correlations. Methods: As we write this, wave-two data are being collected via Qualtrics, and we expect a final sample of about 600 participants composed of French-speaking (snowball sample) and English-speaking (Prolific sample) parents. Structural equation modeling is employed using Stata version 17. In order to retain as much statistical power as possible, we use all available data and therefore apply the maximum likelihood with a missing value (mlmv) as the method of estimation to compute the parameter estimates. To limit (in so far is possible) the shared method variance bias in the evaluation of the child’s behavior, the study relies on a multi-informant evaluation approach. Expected results: We expect our three-wave longitudinal study to show that PB symptoms (measured at T1) raise the occurrence/intensity of the child’s externalized and/or internalized behaviors (measured at T2 and T3). We further expect the child’s occurrence/intensity of externalized and/or internalized behaviors (measured at T1) to augment the risk for PB (measured at T2 and T3). Conclusion: Should our hypotheses be confirmed, our results will make an important contribution to the understanding of both PB and children’s behavioral issues, thereby opening interesting theoretical and clinical avenues.

Keywords: exhaustion, structural equation modeling, cross-lagged longitudinal study, violence and neglect, child-parent relationship

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402 Students Awareness on Reproductive Health Education in Sri Lanka

Authors: Ayomi Indika Irugalbandara

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Reproductive Health (RE) education among Sri Lankan Adolescents (comprising one fifth inner population) remains unsatisfactory despite 91.8% of them completing primary education & 56.2 % receiving post secondary level education. The main reason for this large population not receiving satisfactory RH education is traditional values and longstanding taboos surrounding sexuality. The current study was undertaken with there objectives. The relevance of achieving them being to formulate RH educational policies and programs that address a sizable and sensitive chunk of the population thereby achieving the goal of mental and social well being and not merely the absence of reproductive disease or infirmity. This research was a descriptive study, using random sampling technique, sample of the study consisting of 160 adolescent in the age group of 16-19, studying in government schools in Sri Lanka. Questionnaire was the main instrument of data collection, qualitative and quantitative techniques were used in data analysis. According to the data it was revealed that a majority has some idea about RH education. While this awareness had been provided by the school, the source of information had been Health and Physical Education. The entire sample mentioned that more RH information, than was provided, should be given and everybody wanted further knowledge regarding sexuality, and in depth information on it was essential. About 96 adolescents were of the opinion that their behavior was respectful to elders and 64 felt embarrassed while communicating with elders regarding RH issues. About their preferred sources of information, both genders named health providers as their first choice, followed by family members and friends. The internet was cited by a few boys; less than 5 percent cited religious figures. More than 50% of respondents had no knowledge about abortion and they were unaware of dangerous abortion. The practice of abortion was reported among zero percent. Although every member of the sample did not possess knowledge of the scientific process involved in abortion, all of them totally rejected the idea of destroying a foetus. Adolescence is a critical period in the life of girls and boys and sexuality education empowers young people to protect their health and well-being. Schools have the proper staff, and environment for learning. It might be stated that the greater segment of individuals entering adolescents and going through their adolescence are still in the school. This becomes the reason why it is mandatory that the school should be geared to handle this critical stage of the students. Adolescents or those approaching adolescence are best educated by the relevant parents, but this being quite a sensitive issue in the socio cultural context, it is somewhat doubtful whether all parents are prepared to handle this candidly, due either to lack of knowledge or absence of the appropriate state of mind. As such it is best that seminars/workshops be conducted to enlighten parents on handling HR issues related to their adolescent children. Apart from the awareness on HR provided through the school curriculum a greater impact can be brought about through street dramas, exhibitions etc. specific to HR. Finally the researcher would like to suggest that Sunday schools be harnessed for the provision of HR education linked with cultural values, ethics, and social well-being.

Keywords: reproductive health, awareness, perception, school curriculum

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401 The Relationship between Depression, HIV Stigma and Adherence to Antiretroviral Therapy among Adult Patients Living with HIV at a Tertiary Hospital in Durban, South Africa: The Mediating Roles of Self-Efficacy and Social Support

Authors: Muziwandile Luthuli

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Although numerous factors predicting adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) have been broadly studied on both regional and global level, up-to-date adherence of patients to ART remains an overarching, dynamic and multifaceted problem that needs to be investigated over time and across various contexts. There is a rarity of empirical data in the literature on interactive mechanisms by which psychosocial factors influence adherence to ART among PLWHA within the South African context. Therefore, this study was designed to investigate the relationship between depression, HIV stigma, and adherence to ART among adult patients living with HIV at a tertiary hospital in Durban, South Africa, and the mediating roles of self-efficacy and social support. The health locus of control theory and the social support theory were the underlying theoretical frameworks for this study. Using a cross-sectional research design, a total of 201 male and female adult patients aged between 18-75 years receiving ART at a tertiary hospital in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal were sampled, using time location sampling (TLS). A self-administered questionnaire was employed to collect the data in this study. Data were analysed through SPSS version 27. Several statistical analyses were conducted in this study, namely univariate statistical analysis, correlational analysis, Pearson’s chi-square analysis, cross-tabulation analysis, binary logistic regression analysis, and mediational analysis. Univariate analysis indicated that the sample mean age was 39.28 years (SD=12.115), while most participants were females 71.0% (n=142), never married 74.2% (n=147), and most were also secondary school educated 48.3% (n=97), as well as unemployed 65.7% (n=132). The prevalence rate of participants who had high adherence to ART was 53.7% (n=108), and 46.3% (n=93) of participants had low adherence to ART. Chi-square analysis revealed that employment status was the only statistically significant socio-demographic influence of adherence to ART in this study (χ2 (3) = 8.745; p < .033). Chi-square analysis showed that there was a statistically significant difference found between depression and adherence to ART (χ2 (4) = 16.140; p < .003), while between HIV stigma and adherence to ART, no statistically significant difference was found (χ2 (1) = .323; p >.570). Binary logistic regression indicated that depression was statistically associated with adherence to ART (OR= .853; 95% CI, .789–.922, P < 001), while the association between self-efficacy and adherence to ART was statistically significant (OR= 1.04; 95% CI, 1.001– 1.078, P < .045) after controlling for the effect of depression. However, the findings showed that the effect of depression on adherence to ART was not significantly mediated by self-efficacy (Sobel test for indirect effect, Z= 1.01, P > 0.31). Binary logistic regression showed that the effect of HIV stigma on adherence to ART was not statistically significant (OR= .980; 95% CI, .937– 1.025, P > .374), but the effect of social support on adherence to ART was statistically significant, only after the effect of HIV stigma was controlled for (OR= 1.017; 95% CI, 1.000– 1.035, P < .046). This study promotes behavioral and social change effected through evidence-based interventions by emphasizing the need for additional research that investigates the interactive mechanisms by which psychosocial factors influence adherence to ART. Depression is a significant predictor of adherence to ART. Thus, to alleviate the psychosocial impact of depression on adherence to ART, effective interventions must be devised, along with special consideration of self-efficacy and social support. Therefore, this study is helpful in informing and effecting change in health policy and healthcare services through its findings

Keywords: ART adherence, depression, HIV/AIDS, PLWHA

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400 Fault Diagnosis and Fault-Tolerant Control of Bilinear-Systems: Application to Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning Systems in Multi-Zone Buildings

Authors: Abderrhamane Jarou, Dominique Sauter, Christophe Aubrun

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Over the past decade, the growing demand for energy efficiency in buildings has attracted the attention of the control community. Failures in HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) systems in buildings can have a significant impact on the desired and expected energy performance of buildings and on the user's comfort as well. FTC is a recent technology area that studies the adaptation of control algorithms to faulty operating conditions of a system. The application of Fault-Tolerant Control (FTC) in HVAC systems has gained attention in the last two decades. The objective is to maintain the variations in system performance due to faults within an acceptable range with respect to the desired nominal behavior. This paper considers the so-called active approach, which is based on fault and identification scheme combined with a control reconfiguration algorithm that consists in determining a new set of control parameters so that the reconfigured performance is "as close as possible, "in some sense, to the nominal performance. Thermal models of buildings and their HVAC systems are described by non-linear (usually bi-linear) equations. Most of the works carried out so far in FDI (fault diagnosis and isolation) or FTC consider a linearized model of the studied system. However, this model is only valid in a reduced range of variation. This study presents a new fault diagnosis (FD) algorithm based on a bilinear observer for the detection and accurate estimation of the magnitude of the HVAC system failure. The main contribution of the proposed FD algorithm is that instead of using specific linearized models, the algorithm inherits the structure of the actual bilinear model of the building thermal dynamics. As an immediate consequence, the algorithm is applicable to a wide range of unpredictable operating conditions, i.e., weather dynamics, outdoor air temperature, zone occupancy profile. A bilinear fault detection observer is proposed for a bilinear system with unknown inputs. The residual vector in the observer design is decoupled from the unknown inputs and, under certain conditions, is made sensitive to all faults. Sufficient conditions are given for the existence of the observer and results are given for the explicit computation of observer design matrices. Dedicated observer schemes (DOS) are considered for sensor FDI while unknown input bilinear observers are considered for actuator or system components FDI. The proposed strategy for FTC works as follows: At a first level, FDI algorithms are implemented, making it also possible to estimate the magnitude of the fault. Once the fault is detected, the fault estimation is then used to feed the second level and reconfigure the control low so that that expected performances are recovered. This paper is organized as follows. A general structure for fault-tolerant control of buildings is first presented and the building model under consideration is introduced. Then, the observer-based design for Fault Diagnosis of bilinear systems is studied. The FTC approach is developed in Section IV. Finally, a simulation example is given in Section V to illustrate the proposed method.

Keywords: bilinear systems, fault diagnosis, fault-tolerant control, multi-zones building

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399 Smart Meters and In-Home Displays to Encourage Water Conservation through Behavioural Change

Authors: Julia Terlet, Thomas H. Beach, Yacine Rezgui

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Urbanization, population growth, climate change and the current increase in water demand have made the adoption of innovative demand management strategies crucial to the water industry. Water conservation in urban areas has to be improved by encouraging consumers to adopt more sustainable habits and behaviours. This includes informing and educating them about their households’ water consumption and advising them about ways to achieve significant savings on a daily basis. This paper presents a study conducted in the context of the European FP7 WISDOM Project. By integrating innovative Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) frameworks, this project aims at achieving a change in water savings. More specifically, behavioural change will be attempted by implementing smart meters and in-home displays in a trial group of selected households within Cardiff (UK). Using this device, consumers will be able to receive feedback and information about their consumption but will also have the opportunity to compare their consumption to the consumption of other consumers and similar households. Following an initial survey, it appeared necessary to implement these in-home displays in a way that matches consumer's motivations to save water. The results demonstrated the importance of various factors influencing people’s daily water consumption. Both the relevant literature on the subject and the results of our survey therefore led us to include within the in-home device a variety of elements. It first appeared crucial to make consumers aware of the economic aspect of water conservation and especially of the significant financial savings that can be achieved by reducing their household’s water consumption on the long term. Likewise, reminding participants of the impact of their consumption on the environment by making them more aware of water scarcity issues around the world will help increasing their motivation to save water. Additionally, peer pressure and social comparisons with neighbours and other consumers, accentuated by the use of online social networks such as Facebook or Twitter, will likely encourage consumers to reduce their consumption. Participants will also be able to compare their current consumption to their past consumption and to observe the consequences of their efforts to save water through diverse graphs and charts. Finally, including a virtual water game within the display will help the whole household, children and adults, to achieve significant reductions by providing them with simple tips and advice to save water on a daily basis. Moreover, by setting daily and weekly goals for them to reach, the game will expectantly generate cooperation between family members. Members of each household will indeed be encouraged to work together to reduce their water consumption within different rooms of the house, such as the bathroom, the kitchen, or the toilets. Overall, this study will allow us to understand the elements that attract consumers the most and the features that are most commonly used by the participants. In this way, we intend to determine the main factors influencing water consumption in order to identify the measures that will most encourage water conservation in both the long and short term.

Keywords: behavioural change, ICT technologies, water consumption, water conservation

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398 Teleconnection between El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Seasonal Flow of the Surma River and Possibilities of Long Range Flood Forecasting

Authors: Monika Saha, A. T. M. Hasan Zobeyer, Nasreen Jahan

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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the interaction between atmosphere and ocean in tropical Pacific which causes inconsistent warm/cold weather in tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Due to the impact of climate change, ENSO events are becoming stronger in recent times, and therefore it is very important to study the influence of ENSO in climate studies. Bangladesh, being in the low-lying deltaic floodplain, experiences the worst consequences due to flooding every year. To reduce the catastrophe of severe flooding events, non-structural measures such as flood forecasting can be helpful in taking adequate precautions and steps. Forecasting seasonal flood with a longer lead time of several months is a key component of flood damage control and water management. The objective of this research is to identify the possible strength of teleconnection between ENSO and river flow of Surma and examine the potential possibility of long lead flood forecasting in the wet season. Surma is one of the major rivers of Bangladesh and is a part of the Surma-Meghna river system. In this research, sea surface temperature (SST) has been considered as the ENSO index and the lead time is at least a few months which is greater than the basin response time. The teleconnection has been assessed by the correlation analysis between July-August-September (JAS) flow of Surma and SST of Nino 4 region of the corresponding months. Cumulative frequency distribution of standardized JAS flow of Surma has also been determined as part of assessing the possible teleconnection. Discharge data of Surma river from 1975 to 2015 is used in this analysis, and remarkable increased value of correlation coefficient between flow and ENSO has been observed from 1985. From the cumulative frequency distribution of the standardized JAS flow, it has been marked that in any year the JAS flow has approximately 50% probability of exceeding the long-term average JAS flow. During El Nino year (warm episode of ENSO) this probability of exceedance drops to 23% and while in La Nina year (cold episode of ENSO) it increases to 78%. Discriminant analysis which is known as 'Categoric Prediction' has been performed to identify the possibilities of long lead flood forecasting. It has helped to categorize the flow data (high, average and low) based on the classification of predicted SST (warm, normal and cold). From the discriminant analysis, it has been found that for Surma river, the probability of a high flood in the cold period is 75% and the probability of a low flood in the warm period is 33%. A synoptic parameter, forecasting index (FI) has also been calculated here to judge the forecast skill and to compare different forecasts. This study will help the concerned authorities and the stakeholders to take long-term water resources decisions and formulate policies on river basin management which will reduce possible damage of life, agriculture, and property.

Keywords: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature, surma river, teleconnection, cumulative frequency distribution, discriminant analysis, forecasting index

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397 Neighborhood-Scape as a Methodology for Enhancing Gulf Region Cities' Quality of Life: Case of Doha, Qatar

Authors: Eman AbdelSabour

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Sustainability is increasingly being considered as a critical aspect in shaping the urban environment. It works as an invention development basis for global urban growth. Currently, different models and structures impact the means of interpreting the criteria that would be included in defining a sustainable city. There is a collective need to improve the growth path to an extremely durable path by presenting different suggestions regarding multi-scale initiatives. The global rise in urbanization has led to increased demand and pressure for better urban planning choice and scenarios for a better sustainable urban alternative. The need for an assessment tool at the urban scale was prompted due to the trend of developing increasingly sustainable urban development (SUD). The neighborhood scale is being managed by a growing research committee since it seems to be a pertinent scale through which economic, environmental, and social impacts could be addressed. Although neighborhood design is a comparatively old practice, it is in the initial years of the 21st century when environmentalists and planners started developing sustainable assessment at the neighborhood level. Through this, urban reality can be considered at a larger scale whereby themes which are beyond the size of a single building can be addressed, while it still stays small enough that concrete measures could be analyzed. The neighborhood assessment tool has a crucial role in helping neighborhood sustainability to perform approach and fulfill objectives through a set of themes and criteria. These devices are also known as neighborhood assessment tool, district assessment tool, and sustainable community rating tool. The primary focus of research has been on sustainability from the economic and environmental aspect, whereas the social, cultural issue is rarely focused. Therefore, this research is based on Doha, Qatar, the current urban conditions of the neighborhoods is discussed in this study. The research problem focuses on the spatial features in relation to the socio-cultural aspects. This study is outlined in three parts; the first section comprises of review of the latest use of wellbeing assessment methods to enhance decision process of retrofitting physical features of the neighborhood. The second section discusses the urban settlement development, regulations and the process of decision-making rule. An analysis of urban development policy with reference to neighborhood development is also discussed in this section. Moreover, it includes a historical review of the urban growth of the neighborhoods as an atom of the city system present in Doha. Last part involves developing quantified indicators regarding subjective well-being through a participatory approach. Additionally, applying GIS will be utilized as a visualizing tool for the apparent Quality of Life (QoL) that need to develop in the neighborhood area as an assessment approach. Envisaging the present QoL situation in Doha neighborhoods is a process to improve current condition neighborhood function involves many days to day activities of the residents, due to which areas are considered dynamic.

Keywords: neighborhood, subjective wellbeing, decision support tools, Doha, retrofiring

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