Search results for: threat modelling

Authors: Diteboho Xaba, Kolentino Mpeta, Tlotliso Qejoe

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This paper assesses the in-sample forecasting of the South African exchange rates comparing a linear ARIMA model and a SETAR model. The study uses a monthly adjusted data of South African exchange rates with 420 observations. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz information criteria (SIC) are used for model selection. Mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are error metrics used to evaluate forecast capability of the models. The Diebold –Mariano (DM) test is employed in the study to check forecast accuracy in order to distinguish the forecasting performance between the two models (ARIMA and SETAR). The results indicate that both models perform well when modelling and forecasting the exchange rates, but SETAR seemed to outperform ARIMA.

Keywords: ARIMA, error metrices, model selection, SETAR

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Authors: Thomas Chinwe Urama, Patrick Oseloka Ezepue, Peters Chimezie Nnanwa

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This paper investigates the universal financial dynamics in two dominant stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, through an in-depth analysis of the cross-correlation matrix of price returns in Nigerian Stock Market (NSM) and Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), for the period 2009 to 2013. The strength of correlations between stocks is known to be higher in JSE than that of the NSM. Particularly important for modelling Nigerian derivatives in the future, the interactions of other stocks with the oil sector are weak, whereas the banking sector has strong positive interactions with the other sectors in the stock exchange. For the JSE, it is the oil sector and beverages that have greater sectorial correlations, instead of the banks which have the weaker correlation with other sectors in the stock exchange.

Keywords: random matrix theory, cross-correlations, emerging markets, option pricing, eigenvalues eigenvectors, inverse participation ratios and implied volatility

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Authors: Ugwu Blessing Nkiruka

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This paper seeks to examine Nigerian National Agency for the control of AIDS (NACA) and international response to the control of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria. The paper adopted the Functionalist theory alongside Liberalism and Idealism, but anchored extensively on functionalism. On the response of HIV/AIDS, Functionalist theory advocated for international corporation of both intergovernmental and non-governmental organisations as the basis for the reduction of the virus. the study adopted secondary source of data i.e journals, articles, newspapers and policy briefs to discuss the reduction of the pandemic (HIV/AIDS).This paper discovered that although HIV/AIDS is a global threat, especially to developing countries where the prevalence rate is still very high, yet international governmental and non-governmental organisation have been able to collaborate with National agencies like NACA in Nigeria and respond speedily through diverse initiatives and action plans to curb the spread of the virus. The study therefore recommends greater awareness on testing and early introduction of antiretroviral therapy, proper screening of blood before transfusion, absolute faithfulness among partners. Similarly, sharing of sharp objects like needles, knives and syringes should be avoided at all cost.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, developing countries, Nigeria, international organizations, NACA

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Authors: Benjamin Castillo, Luis Pastenes, Fernando Cordova

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The pathogen growth in animal source foods is a common problem in the food industry, causing monetary losses due to the spoiling of products or food intoxication outbreaks in the community. In this sense, the quality of the product is reflected by the population of deteriorating agents present in it, which are mainly bacteria. The factors which are likely associated with freshness in animal source foods are temperature and processing, storage, and transport times. However, the level of deterioration of products depends, in turn, on the characteristics of the bacterial population, causing the decomposition or spoiling, such as pH level and toxins. Knowing the growth dynamics of the agents that are involved in product contamination allows the monitoring for more efficient processing. This means better quality and reasonable costs, along with a better estimation of necessary time and temperature intervals for transport and storage in order to preserve product quality. The objective of this project is to design a secondary model that allows measuring the impact on temperature bacterial growth and the competition for pH adequacy and release of bacteriocins in order to describe such phenomenon and, thus, estimate food product half-life with the least possible risk of deterioration or spoiling. In order to achieve this objective, the authors propose an analysis of a three-dimensional ordinary differential which includes; logistic bacterial growth extended by the inhibitory action of bacteriocins including the effect of the medium pH; change in the medium pH levels through an adaptation of the Luedeking-Piret kinetic model; Bacteriocin concentration modeled similarly to pH levels. These three dimensions are being influenced by the temperature at all times. Then, this differential system is expanded, taking into consideration the variable temperature and the concentration of pulsed bacteriocins, which represent characteristics inherent of the modeling, such as transport and storage, as well as the incorporation of substances that inhibit bacterial growth. The main results lead to the fact that temperature changes in an early stage of transport increased the bacterial population significantly more than if it had increased during the final stage. On the other hand, the incorporation of bacteriocins, as in other investigations, proved to be efficient in the short and medium-term since, although the population of bacteria decreased, once the bacteriocins were depleted or degraded over time, the bacteria eventually returned to their regular growth rate. The efficacy of the bacteriocins at low temperatures decreased slightly, which equates with the fact that their natural degradation rate also decreased. In summary, the implementation of the mathematical model allowed the simulation of a set of possible bacteria present in animal based products, along with their properties, in various transport and storage situations, which led us to state that for inhibiting bacterial growth, the optimum is complementary low constant temperatures and the initial use of bacteriocins.

Keywords: bacterial growth, bacteriocins, mathematical modelling, temperature

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Authors: Mozhgan Mohammadi, Arezoo Ghadi

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Arsenic is known as a potential threat to the environment. Therefore, the aim of this research is to assess the arsenic removal efficiency from an aqueous solution, with a new biosorbent composed of a black seed pulp (BSP). To treat BSP, the combination of two methods (i.e. treating with mineral acids and use at high temperature) was used and designed bio-sorbent called BSP-activated/carbonized. The BSP-activated and BSP-carbonized were also prepared using HCL and 400°C temperature, respectively, to compare the results of each three methods. Followed by, adsorption parameters such as pH, initial ion concentration, biosorbent dosage, contact time, and temperature were assessed. It was found that the combination method has provided higher adsorption capacity so that up to ~99% arsenic removal was observed with BSP-activated/carbonized at pH of 7.0 and 40°C. The adsorption capacity for BSP-carbonized and BSP-activated were 87.92% (pH: 7, 60°C) and 78.50% (pH: 6, 90°C), respectively. Moreover, adsorption kinetics data indicated the best fit with the pseudo-second-order model. The maximum biosorption capacity, by the Langmuir isotherm model, was also recorded for BSP-activated/carbonized (53.47 mg/g). It is notable that arsenic adsorption on studied bio sorbents takes place as spontaneous and through chemisorption along with the endothermic nature of the biosorption process and reduction of random collision in the solid-liquid phase.

Keywords: black seed pulp, bio-sorbents, treatment of sorbents, adsorption isotherms

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Authors: Rodrigo T. Sepulveda-Hirose, Ana B. Carrera-Aguilar, Francisco Andree Ramirez-Casas, Alondra Orozco-Gomez, Miguel Angel Sanchez-Caro, Carlos Herrera-Ventosa

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High concentrations of particulate matter in the atmosphere pose a threat to human health, especially over areas with high concentrations of population; however, field air pollution monitoring is expensive and time-consuming. In order to achieve reduced costs and global coverage of the whole urban area, remote sensing can be used. This study evaluates PM2.5 concentrations, over the Mexico City´s metropolitan area, are estimated using atmospheric reflectance from LANDSAT 8, satellite imagery and historical PM2.5 measurements of the Automatic Environmental Monitoring Network of Mexico City (RAMA). Through the processing of the available satellite images, a preliminary model was generated to evaluate the optimal bands for the generation of the final model for Mexico City. Work on the final model continues with the results of the preliminary model. It was found that infrared bands have helped to model in other cities, but the effectiveness that these bands could provide for the geographic and climatic conditions of Mexico City is still being evaluated.

Keywords: air pollution modeling, Landsat 8, PM2.5, remote sensing

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Authors: James Moir

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The mainstay of Big Data is prediction in that it allows practitioners, researchers, and policy analysts to predict trends based upon the analysis of large and varied sources of data. These can range from changing social and political opinions, patterns in crimes, and consumer behaviour. Big Data has therefore shifted the criterion of success in science from causal explanations to predictive modelling and simulation. The 19th-century science sought to capture phenomena and seek to show the appearance of it through causal mechanisms while 20th-century science attempted to save the appearance and relinquish causal explanations. Now 21st-century science in the form of Big Data is concerned with the prediction of appearances and nothing more. However, this pulls social science back in the direction of a more rule- or law-governed reality model of science and away from a consideration of the internal nature of rules in relation to various practices. In effect Big Data offers us no more than a world of surface appearance and in doing so it makes disappear any context-specific conceptual sensitivity.

Keywords: big data, appearance, disappearance, surface, epistemology

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Authors: A. Nusrath Unissa, Sameer Hassan, Luke Elizabeth Hanna

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Altered drug binding may be an important factor in isoniazid (INH) resistance, rather than major changes in the enzyme’s activity as a catalase or peroxidase (KatG). The identification of structural or functional defects in the mutant KatGs responsible for INH resistance remains as an area to be explored. In this connection, the differences in the binding affinity between wild-type (WT) and mutants of KatG were investigated, through the generation of three mutants of KatG, Ser315Thr [S315T], Ser315Asn [S315N], Ser315Arg [S315R] and a WT [S315]) with the help of software-MODELLER. The mutants were docked with INH using the software-GOLD. The affinity is lower for WT than mutant, suggesting the tight binding of INH with the mutant protein compared to WT type. These models provide the in silico evidence for the binding interaction of KatG with INH and implicate the basis for rationalization of INH resistance in naturally occurring KatG mutant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Keywords: Mycobacterium tuberculosis, KatG, INH resistance, mutants, modelling, docking

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Authors: A. E. Elkorany, Eman Elsrgawy

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Eighty six isolates of Phytophthora infestans dating back to 2006 were recovered from potato tubers that were on sale in Alexandria markets, Egypt. The isolates were characterized for mating type and colony morphology. Both A1 and A2 mating types were detected in the isolate collection, however, the A2 constituted 5.8% of the total isolates made while the A1 mating type isolates constituted 91.9%. The self-fertile phenotype was also detected but at a lower percentage of 2.3% of the total isolates. This indicated that Mexico, the probable origin of the disease, is no longer the only place where A2 mating type ever exists. The lumpy phenotype was the only trait observed linked to the A2 mating type isolates on rye A agar medium. The self-fertile isolates, however, exhibited colonies of a waxy appearance with little aerial hyphae and the culture were backed full with oospores. The A1 mating colonies were of smooth white abundant aerial hyphae. The metalaxyl resistant isolates were also detected among the analyzed isolates and constituted 4.6% of the total (86) isolates investigated. The appearance of the A2 mating type outside Mexico and the variation revealed in the population of Phytophthora infestans investigated supported the hypothesis of a second worldwide migration of the fungus from its origin which could constitute a threat to potato cultivation around the world.

Keywords: Phytophthora infestans, potato, Egypt, fungus

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Authors: Vano Tsertsvadze, Marina Chavchanidze, Lali Khurtsia

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Problem of drug use is often seen as a combination of psychological and social problems, but this problem can be considered as economically rational decision in the process of buying pleasure (looking after children, reading, harvesting fruits in the fall, sex, eating, etc.). Before the adoption of the decisions people face to a trade-off - when someone chooses a delicious meal, she takes a completely rational decision, that the pleasure of eating has a lot more value than the pleasure which she will experience after two months diet on the summer beach showing off her beautiful body. This argument is also true for alcohol, drugs and cigarettes. Smoking has a negative effect on health, but smokers are not afraid of the threat of a lung cancer after 40 years, more valuable moment is a pleasure from smoking. Our hypothesis - unsatisfied pleasure and frustration, probably determines the risk of dependence on drug abuse. The purpose of research: 1- to determine the relative measure unit of pleasure, which will be used to measure and assess the intensity of various human pleasures. 2- to compare the intensity of the pleasure from different kinds of activity, with pleasures received from drug use. 3- Based on the analysis of data, to identify factors affecting the rational decision making. Research method: Respondents will be asked to recall the greatest pleasure of their life, which will be used as a measure of the other pleasures. The study will use focus groups and structured interviews.

Keywords: drug, drug-user, measurement, satisfaction

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Authors: Elvira Mustikawati P.H., Iis Dewi Ratih, Dita Amelia

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Bojonegoro has proclaimed a policy of zero malnutrition. Therefore, as an effort to solve the cases of malnutrition children in Bojonegoro, this study used the approach geographically Mixed Weighted Regression (MGWR) to determine the factors that influence the percentage of malnourished children under five in which factors can be divided into locally influential factor in each district and global factors that influence throughout the district. Based on the test of goodness of fit models, R2 and AIC values in GWR models are better than MGWR models. R2 and AIC values in MGWR models are 84.37% and 14.28, while the GWR models respectively are 91.04% and -62.04. Based on the analysis with GWR models, District Sekar, Bubulan, Gondang, and Dander is a district with three predictor variables (percentage of vitamin A, the percentage of births assisted health personnel, and the percentage of clean water) that significantly influence the percentage of malnourished children under five.

Keywords: GWR, MGWR, R2, AIC

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Authors: Samir Zeghlache, Abderrahmen Bouguerra, Kamel Kara, Djamel Saigaa

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The control of the trirotor helicopter includes nonlinearities, uncertainties and external perturbations that should be considered in the design of control laws. This paper presents a control strategy for an underactuated six degrees of freedom (6 DOF) trirotor helicopter, based on the coupling of the fuzzy logic control and sliding mode control (SMC). The main purpose of this work is to eliminate the chattering phenomenon. To achieve our purpose we have used a fuzzy logic control to generate the hitting control signal, also the non linear observer is then synthesized in order to estimate the unmeasured states. Finally simulation results are included to indicate the trirotor UAV with the proposed controller can greatly alleviate the chattering effect and remain robust to the external disturbances.

Keywords: fuzzy sliding mode control, trirotor helicopter, dynamic modelling, underactuated systems

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Earthquakes pose significant risks to human life and infrastructure, highlighting the importance of effective earthquake mitigation strategies. Traditional earthquake modelling and mitigation efforts have largely focused on the primary fault segments and their slip behaviour. However, earthquakes can exhibit complex rupture dynamics, including out-of-sequence thrust (OOST) events, which occur on secondary or subsidiary faults. This abstract examines the impact of OOST dynamics on earthquake mitigation strategies and their implications for hazard assessment and disaster planning. OOST events challenge conventional seismic hazard assessments by introducing additional fault segments and potential rupture scenarios that were previously unrecognized or underestimated. Consequently, these events may increase the overall seismic hazard in affected regions. The study reviews recent case studies and research findings that illustrate the occurrence and characteristics of OOST events. It explores the factors contributing to OOST dynamics, such as stress interactions between fault segments, fault geometry, and mechanical properties of fault materials. Moreover, it investigates the potential triggers and precursory signals associated with OOST events to enhance early warning systems and emergency response preparedness. The abstract also highlights the significance of incorporating OOST dynamics into seismic hazard assessment methodologies. It discusses the challenges associated with accurately modelling OOST events, including the need for improved understanding of fault interactions, stress transfer mechanisms, and rupture propagation patterns. Additionally, the abstract explores the potential for advanced geophysical techniques, such as high-resolution imaging and seismic monitoring networks, to detect and characterize OOST events. Furthermore, the abstract emphasizes the practical implications of OOST dynamics for earthquake mitigation strategies and urban planning. It addresses the need for revising building codes, land-use regulations, and infrastructure designs to account for the increased seismic hazard associated with OOST events. It also underscores the importance of public awareness campaigns to educate communities about the potential risks and safety measures specific to OOST-induced earthquakes. This sheds light on the impact of out-of-sequence thrust dynamics in earthquake mitigation. By recognizing and understanding OOST events, researchers, engineers, and policymakers can improve hazard assessment methodologies, enhance early warning systems, and implement effective mitigation measures. By integrating knowledge of OOST dynamics into urban planning and infrastructure development, societies can strive for greater resilience in the face of earthquakes, ultimately minimizing the potential for loss of life and infrastructure damage.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, seismic, satellite imagery

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Authors: A. Boateng, La Gil-Alana, M. Lesaoana; Hj. Siweya, A. Belete

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This study examines long memory or long-range dependence in the CPI inflation rates of Ghana and South Africa using Whittle methods and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Standard I(0)/I(1) methods such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Philips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests were also employed. Our findings indicate that long memory exists in the CPI inflation rates of both countries. After processing fractional differencing and determining the short memory components, the models were specified as ARFIMA (4,0.35,2) and ARFIMA (3,0.49,3) respectively for Ghana and South Africa. Consequently, the CPI inflation rates of both countries are fractionally integrated and mean reverting. The implication of this result will assist in policy formulation and identification of inflationary pressures in an economy.

Keywords: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rates, Whittle method, long memory, ARFIMA model

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Authors: Xinyi Gao, Xiaoyun Feng, Ruijie Liu, Yumin Xia, Min Shao, Xinqing Wang

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This paper outlines the travel challenges, the absence of society, and studies around disabled women and chooses the Chongqing area as a case study to explore how terrain characteristics and city construction influence our subject's travel choice. It also highlights future transport options and the necessity of addressing the difficult travel position of women with disabilities. This study focuses on the travel demands of women with disabilities, illustrating what their ideal method of travel would be. An analysis of related smart cities like Hong Kong illustrates the aspects to consider in the reconstruction of Chongqing. Finally, relying on current smart city modelling approaches, several design ideas for assistive tools are suggested for the safety of women with disabilities during travel.

Keywords: future smart city, disabled women, Chongqing, inclusive design, human-computer interaction

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Authors: Nasser Mohamed Ramli, Mohamad Syafiq Mohamad

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Many types of controllers were applied on the continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) unit to control the temperature. In this research paper, Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controller are compared with Fuzzy Logic controller for temperature control of CSTR. The control system for temperature non-isothermal of a CSTR will produce a stable response curve to its set point temperature. A mathematical model of a CSTR using the most general operating condition was developed through a set of differential equations into S-function using MATLAB. The reactor model and S-function are developed using m.file. After developing the S-function of CSTR model, User-Defined functions are used to link to SIMULINK file. Results that are obtained from simulation and temperature control were better when using Fuzzy logic control compared to PID control.

Keywords: CSTR, temperature, PID, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Anders Thorsén, Behrooz Sangchoolie, Peter Folkesson, Ted Strandberg

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As more parts of the power grid become connected to the internet, the risk of cyberattacks increases. To identify the cybersecurity threats and subsequently reduce vulnerabilities, the common practice is to carry out a cybersecurity risk assessment. For safety classified systems and products, there is also a need for safety risk assessments in addition to the cybersecurity risk assessment in order to identify and reduce safety risks. These two risk assessments are usually done separately, but since cybersecurity and functional safety are often related, a more comprehensive method covering both aspects is needed. Some work addressing this has been done for specific domains like the automotive domain, but more general methods suitable for, e.g., intelligent distributed grids, are still missing. One such method from the automotive domain is the Security-Aware Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment (SAHARA) method that combines safety and cybersecurity risk assessments. This paper presents an approach where the SAHARA method has been modified in order to be more suitable for larger distributed systems. The adapted SAHARA method has a more general risk assessment approach than the original SAHARA. The proposed method has been successfully applied on two use cases of an intelligent distributed grid.

Keywords: intelligent distribution grids, threat analysis, risk assessment, safety, cybersecurity

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Authors: Gennady M. Kulikov, Svetlana V. Plotnikova

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This paper focuses on implementation of the sampling surfaces (SaS) method for the three-dimensional (3D) stress analysis of functionally graded (FG) laminated elastic and piezoelectric shells. The SaS formulation is based on choosing inside the nth layer In not equally spaced SaS parallel to the middle surface of the shell in order to introduce the electric potentials and displacements of these surfaces as basic shell variables. Such choice of unknowns permits the presentation of the proposed FG piezoelectric shell formulation in a very compact form. The SaS are located inside each layer at Chebyshev polynomial nodes that improves the convergence of the SaS method significantly. As a result, the SaS formulation can be applied efficiently to 3D solutions for FG piezoelectric laminated shells, which asymptotically approach the exact solutions of piezoelectricity as the number of SaS In goes to infinity.

Keywords: electroelasticity, functionally graded material, laminated piezoelectric shell, sampling surfaces method

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Authors: Reem El Chakik

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The levels of heavy metals in agricultural lands in Lebanon have been witnessing a noticeable increase in the past few years, due to increased anthropogenic pollution sources. Heavy metals pose a serious threat to the environment for being non-biodegradable and persistent, accumulating thus to dangerous levels in the soil. Besides the traditional laboratory and chemical analysis methods, Hyperspectral Imaging (HSI) has proven its efficiency in the rapid detection of HMs contamination. In Lebanon, a continuous environmental monitoring, including the monitoring of levels of HMs in agricultural soils, is lacking. This is due in part to the high cost of analysis. Hence, this proposed research aims at defining the current national status of HMs contamination in agricultural soil, and to evaluate the effectiveness of using HSI in the detection of HM in contaminated agricultural fields. To achieve the two main objectives of this study, soil samples were collected from different areas throughout the country and were analyzed for HMs using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry (AAS). The results were compared to those obtained from the HSI technique that was applied using Hyspex SWIR-384 camera. The results showed that the Lebanese agricultural soils contain high contamination levels of Zn, and that the more clayey the soil is, the lower reflectance it has.

Keywords: agricultural soils in Lebanon, atomic absorption spectrophotometer, hyperspectral imaging., heavy metals contamination

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Authors: Raghunath Mahabir

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This paper provides an analysis of the existing evidence on the relationships between the migration of Venezuelans into Trinidad and Tobago, violent extremism and gang violence. Arguing that there is a dearth of reliable data on the subject matter, the paper fills the gap by providing relevant definitions of terms used, discusses the sources of data and identifies the causes for this migration and the subsequent ramifications for Trinidad and Tobago and for the migrants themselves. A simple but clear classification pointing to the nexus between migration gang violence and violent extremism is developed, following the logic of migration of criminals(gang members), the need to link with local gangs and the view that certain elements within the TnT society has become radicalized to the point where violent extremism is being displayed in different ways. The paper highlights implications for further policy debate:the imperatives for more effective communication between government officials responsible for migration and those personnel who are tasked with countering violent extremism and gang violence: promoting and executing better integration and social inclusion policies which are necessary to minimize social exclusion, and the threat of violent extremist agendas emanating from both Venezuelans and Trinidadians and generally to establish strong analytical framework grounded in stronger definitions, more reliable data and other evidence which can guide further research and analysis and contribute to policy formation.

Keywords: migration, violent extremism, gangs, Venezuela

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Authors: Angelis P. Barlampas

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Target: The (SARS-CoV-2) is still a threat. AI software could be useful, categorizing the disease into different severities and indicate the extent of the lesions. Materials and methods: AI is a new revolutionary technique, which uses powered computerized systems, to do what a human being does more rapidly, more easily, as accurate and diagnostically safe as the original medical report and, in certain circumstances, even better, saving time and helping the health system to overcome problems, such as work overload and human fatigue. Results: It will be given an effort to describe to the inexperienced reader (see figures), as simple as possible, how an artificial intelligence system diagnoses computed tomography pictures. First, the computerized machine learns the physiologic motives of lung parenchyma by being feeded with normal structured images of the lung tissue. Having being used to recognizing normal structures, it can then easily indentify the pathologic ones, as their images do not fit to known normal picture motives. It is the same way as when someone spends his free time in reading magazines with quizzes, such as <> and <>. General conclusion: The AI mimics the physiological processes of the human mind, but it does that more efficiently and rapidly and provides results in a few seconds, whereas an experienced radiologist needs many days to do that, or even worse, he is unable to accomplish such a huge task.

Keywords: covid-19, artificial intelligence, automated imaging, CT, chest imaging

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Authors: Jordan Deliversky

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Unlike all conventional forms of migration, migration crisis and migratory processes provide pressure to governments and are being expressed as different phenomenon in relation to nature and forms. The objective of this paper is to present the migration and refugee crisis as revealing numerous challenges faced by authorities responsible for the social and economic stability in Bulgaria as well as those providing conditions for reinforcement of the high level of national security in Bulgaria. The analysis is focused on exploring the multiple origins of factors influencing migration processes in Europe, in the light of the measures provided by the Bulgarian state authorities. The main results show that the society itself is facing the challenge of integrating refugees and migrants, so to be able to comply with the principles and values associated with tolerance to social, religious and cultural differences, and not allowing migrants to become marginalized community. Migration pressure creates a number of risks and threats to the Bulgarian national security. Our country has the capacity and resources to meet these potential threats, as a main factor for minimizing the risks to national security is the improvement of coordination and coherence of actions between various actors serving to the security sector.

Keywords: legislation, migrants, refugees, security, terrorism

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Authors: Jamilatuzzahro, Rezzy Eko Caraka

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The yield curve is the plot of the yield to maturity of zero-coupon bonds against maturity. In practice, the yield curve is not observed but must be extracted from observed bond prices for a set of (usually) incomplete maturities. There exist many methodologies and theory to analyze of yield curve. We use two methods (the Nelson-Siegel Method, the Svensson Method, and the SVR method) in order to construct and compare our zero-coupon yield curves. The objectives of this research were: (i) to study the adequacy of NSS model and SVR to Indonesian government bonds data, (ii) to choose the best optimization or estimation method for NSS model and SVR. To obtain that objective, this research was done by the following steps: data preparation, cleaning or filtering data, modeling, and model evaluation.

Keywords: support vector regression, Nelson-Siegel-Svensson, yield curve, Indonesian government

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Authors: B. S. Choudri

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Introduction: Climate change is a major threat to rural livelihoods and to food security in the developing world, including Oman. The aim of this study is to provide a basis for policymakers and researchers in order to understand the impacts of climate change on agriculture and developing adaptation strategies in Oman. Methodology: The data was collected from different agricultural areas across the country with the help of a questionnaire survey among farmers, discussion with community, and observations at the field level. Results: The analysis of data collected from different areas within the country shows a shift in the sowing period of major crops and increased temperatures over recent years. Farmer community is adopting through diversification of crops, use of heat-tolerant species, and improved measures of soil and water conservation. Agriculture has been the main livelihood for most of the farmer communities in rural areas in the country. Conclusions: In order to reduce the effects of climate change at the local and farmer communities, risk reduction would be important along with an in-depth analysis of the vulnerability. Therefore, capacity building of local farmers and providing them with scientific knowledge, mainstreaming adaptation into development activities would be essential with additional funding and subsidies.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, vulnerability, adaptation

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Authors: Johnson Joseph Kwabina Arhinful, Owusu-Ansah Emmanuel Degraft Johnson, Okyere Gabrial Asare, Adebanji Atinuke Olusola

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This paper proposes a model to describe the blood types distribution of new Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases using the Bayesian Poisson - Hidden Markov Model (BP-HMM). With the help of the Gibbs sampler algorithm, using OpenBugs, the study first identifies the number of hidden states fitting European (EU) and African (AF) data sets of COVID-19 cases by blood type frequency. The study then compares the state-dependent mean of infection within and across the two geographical areas. The study findings show that the number of hidden states and infection rates within and across the two geographical areas differ according to blood type.

Keywords: BP-HMM, COVID-19, blood types, GIBBS sampler

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Authors: Maria V. Mishatkina

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The modelling of dialogical environment is an essential feature of modern education. The dialogue of cultures is a foundation and an important prerequisite for a formation of a human’s main moral qualities such as an ability to understand another person, which is manifested in such values as tolerance, respect, mutual assistance and mercy. A formation of a modern expert occurs in an educational environment that is significantly different from what we had several years ago. Nowadays university education has qualitatively new characteristics. They may be observed in Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), a top Russian higher education institution which unites representatives of more than 150 countries. The content of its educational strategies is not an adapted cultural experience but material between science and innovation. Besides, RUDN University’s profiles and specialization are not equal to the professional structures. People study not a profession in a strict sense but a basic scientific foundation of an activity in different socio-cultural areas (science, business and education). RUDN University also provides a considerable unit of professional education components. They are foreign languages skills, economic, political, ethnic, communication and computer culture, theory of information and basic management skills. Moreover, there is a rich social life (festive multicultural events, theme parties, journeys) and prospects concerning the inclusive approach to education (for example, a special course ‘Social Pedagogy: Issues of Tolerance’). In our research, we use such methods as analysis of modern and contemporary scientific literature, opinion poll (involving students, teachers and research workers) and comparative data analysis. We came to the conclusion that knowledge transfer of RUDN student in the activity happens through making goals, problems, issues, tasks and situations which simulate future innovative ambiguous environment that potentially prepares him/her to dialogical way of life. However, all these factors may not take effect if there is no ‘personal inspiration’ of students by communicative and dialogic values, their participation in a system of meanings and tools of learning activity that is represented by cooperation within the framework of scientific and pedagogical schools dialogue. We also found out that dominating strategies of ensuring the quality of education are those that put students in the position of the subject of their own education. Today these strategies and approaches should involve such approaches and methods as task, contextual, modelling, specialized, game-imitating and dialogical approaches, the method of practical situations, etc. Therefore, University in the modern sense is not only an educational institution, but also a generator of innovation, cooperation among nations and cultural progress. RUDN University has been performing exactly this mission for many decades.

Keywords: dialogical developing situation, dialogue of cultures, readiness for dialogue, university graduate

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Authors: S. Taghvamanesh

Abstract:

Modern landfills are highly engineered containment systems that are designed to reduce the environmental and human health impacts of solid waste (trash). In modern landfills, waste is contained by a liner system. The primary goal of the liner system is to isolate the landfill contents from the environment, thereby protecting the soil and groundwater from pollution caused by the leachate of a landfill. Landfill leachate is the most serious threat to groundwater. Therefore, it is necessary to design a system that prevents the penetration of this dangerous substance into the environment. These layers are made up of two basic elements: clay and geosynthetics. Hydraulic conductivity and flexibility are two desirable properties of these materials. There are three different types of liner systems that will be discussed in this paper. According to available data, the current article analyzed materials and methods for constructing liner layers made of distinct leachates, including various harmful components and heavy metals from all around the world. Also, this study attempted to gather data on leachates for each of the sites discussed. In conclusion, every landfill requires a specific type of liner, which depends on the type of leachate that it produces daily. It should also be emphasized that, based on available data, this article focused on the number of landfills that each country or continent possesses.

Keywords: landfill, liner layer, impervious layer, barrier layer

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Authors: Boudemagh Naime

Abstract:

Automatic radar detection requires some methods of adapting to variations in the background clutter in order to control their false alarm rate. The problem becomes more complicated in non-Gaussian environment. In fact, the conventional approach in real time applications requires a complex statistical modeling and much computational operations. To overcome these constraints, we propose another approach based on artificial neural network (ANN-CMLD-CFAR) using a Back Propagation (BP) training algorithm. The considered environment follows a log-normal distribution in the presence of multiple Rayleigh-targets. To evaluate the performances of the considered detector, several situations, such as scale parameter and the number of interferes targets, have been investigated. The simulation results show that the ANN-CMLD-CFAR processor outperforms the conventional statistical one.

Keywords: radat detection, ANN-CMLD-CFAR, log-normal clutter, statistical modelling

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Authors: Karen K. Perez-Ramirez, Genevieve Dupont, Virginia Gonzalez-Velez

Abstract:

Pancreatic alpha-cells participate on glucose regulation together with beta cells. They release glucagon hormone when glucose level is low to stimulate gluconeogenesis from the liver. As other excitable cells, alpha cells generate Ca2+ and metabolic oscillations when they are stimulated. It is known that the glucose level can trigger or silence this activity although it is not clear how this occurs in normal and diabetic people. In this work, we propose an electric-metabolic mathematical model implemented in Matlab to study the effect of different glucose levels on the electrical response and Ca2+ oscillations of an alpha cell. Our results show that Ca2+ oscillations appear in opposite phase with metabolic oscillations in a window of glucose values. The model also predicts a direct relationship between the level of glucose and the intracellular adenine nucleotides showing a self-regulating pathway for the alpha cell.

Keywords: Ca2+ oscillations, mathematical model, metabolic oscillations, pancreatic alpha cell

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Authors: Fida Isam Abdulhafiz

Abstract:

Traditional vernacular architecture in the United Arab Emirates constituted namely of adobe houses with a limited number of openings in their facades. The thick mud and rubble walls and wooden window screens protected its inhabitants from the harsh desert climate and provided them with privacy and fulfilled their comfort zone needs to an extent. However, with the rise of the immediate post petroleum era reinforced concrete villas with glass and steel technology has replaced traditional vernacular dwellings. And more load was put on the mechanical cooling systems to ensure the satisfaction of today’s more demanding doweling inhabitants. However, In the early 21at century professionals started to pay more attention to the carbon footprint caused by the built constructions. In addition, many studies and innovative approaches are now dedicated to lower the impact of the existing operating buildings on their surrounding environments. The UAE government agencies started to regulate that aim to revive sustainable and environmental design through Local and international building codes and urban design policies such as Estidama and LEED. The focus in this paper is on the reduction of the emissions resulting from the use of energy sources in the cooling and heating systems, and that would be through using innovative screen designs and façade solutions to provide a green footprint and aesthetic architectural icons. Screens are one of the popular innovative techniques that can be added in the design process or used in existing building as a renovation techniques to develop a passive green buildings. Preparing future architects to understand the importance of environmental design was attempted through physical modelling of window screens as an educational means to combine theory with a hands on teaching approach. Designing screens proved to be a popular technique that helped them understand the importance of sustainable design and passive cooling. After creating models of prototype screens, several tests were conducted to calculate the amount of Sun, light and wind that goes through the screens affecting the heat load and light entering the building. Theory further explored concepts of green buildings and material that produce low carbon emissions. This paper highlights the importance of hands on experience for student architects and how physical modelling helped rise eco awareness in Design studio. The paper will study different types of façade screens and shading devices developed by Architecture students and explains the production of diverse patterns for traditional screens by student architects based on sustainable design concept that works properly with the climate requirements in the Middle East region.

Keywords: building’s screens modeling, façade design, sustainable architecture, sustainable dwellings, sustainable education

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