Search results for: threat modelling

Authors: Jordan Deliversky

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Unlike all conventional forms of migration, migration crisis and migratory processes provide pressure to governments and are being expressed as different phenomenon in relation to nature and forms. The objective of this paper is to present the migration and refugee crisis as revealing numerous challenges faced by authorities responsible for the social and economic stability in Bulgaria as well as those providing conditions for reinforcement of the high level of national security in Bulgaria. The analysis is focused on exploring the multiple origins of factors influencing migration processes in Europe, in the light of the measures provided by the Bulgarian state authorities. The main results show that the society itself is facing the challenge of integrating refugees and migrants, so to be able to comply with the principles and values associated with tolerance to social, religious and cultural differences, and not allowing migrants to become marginalized community. Migration pressure creates a number of risks and threats to the Bulgarian national security. Our country has the capacity and resources to meet these potential threats, as a main factor for minimizing the risks to national security is the improvement of coordination and coherence of actions between various actors serving to the security sector.

Keywords: legislation, migrants, refugees, security, terrorism

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Authors: B. S. Choudri

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Introduction: Climate change is a major threat to rural livelihoods and to food security in the developing world, including Oman. The aim of this study is to provide a basis for policymakers and researchers in order to understand the impacts of climate change on agriculture and developing adaptation strategies in Oman. Methodology: The data was collected from different agricultural areas across the country with the help of a questionnaire survey among farmers, discussion with community, and observations at the field level. Results: The analysis of data collected from different areas within the country shows a shift in the sowing period of major crops and increased temperatures over recent years. Farmer community is adopting through diversification of crops, use of heat-tolerant species, and improved measures of soil and water conservation. Agriculture has been the main livelihood for most of the farmer communities in rural areas in the country. Conclusions: In order to reduce the effects of climate change at the local and farmer communities, risk reduction would be important along with an in-depth analysis of the vulnerability. Therefore, capacity building of local farmers and providing them with scientific knowledge, mainstreaming adaptation into development activities would be essential with additional funding and subsidies.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, vulnerability, adaptation

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Authors: Jamilatuzzahro, Rezzy Eko Caraka

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The yield curve is the plot of the yield to maturity of zero-coupon bonds against maturity. In practice, the yield curve is not observed but must be extracted from observed bond prices for a set of (usually) incomplete maturities. There exist many methodologies and theory to analyze of yield curve. We use two methods (the Nelson-Siegel Method, the Svensson Method, and the SVR method) in order to construct and compare our zero-coupon yield curves. The objectives of this research were: (i) to study the adequacy of NSS model and SVR to Indonesian government bonds data, (ii) to choose the best optimization or estimation method for NSS model and SVR. To obtain that objective, this research was done by the following steps: data preparation, cleaning or filtering data, modeling, and model evaluation.

Keywords: support vector regression, Nelson-Siegel-Svensson, yield curve, Indonesian government

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Authors: S. Taghvamanesh

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Modern landfills are highly engineered containment systems that are designed to reduce the environmental and human health impacts of solid waste (trash). In modern landfills, waste is contained by a liner system. The primary goal of the liner system is to isolate the landfill contents from the environment, thereby protecting the soil and groundwater from pollution caused by the leachate of a landfill. Landfill leachate is the most serious threat to groundwater. Therefore, it is necessary to design a system that prevents the penetration of this dangerous substance into the environment. These layers are made up of two basic elements: clay and geosynthetics. Hydraulic conductivity and flexibility are two desirable properties of these materials. There are three different types of liner systems that will be discussed in this paper. According to available data, the current article analyzed materials and methods for constructing liner layers made of distinct leachates, including various harmful components and heavy metals from all around the world. Also, this study attempted to gather data on leachates for each of the sites discussed. In conclusion, every landfill requires a specific type of liner, which depends on the type of leachate that it produces daily. It should also be emphasized that, based on available data, this article focused on the number of landfills that each country or continent possesses.

Keywords: landfill, liner layer, impervious layer, barrier layer

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Authors: Johnson Joseph Kwabina Arhinful, Owusu-Ansah Emmanuel Degraft Johnson, Okyere Gabrial Asare, Adebanji Atinuke Olusola

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This paper proposes a model to describe the blood types distribution of new Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases using the Bayesian Poisson - Hidden Markov Model (BP-HMM). With the help of the Gibbs sampler algorithm, using OpenBugs, the study first identifies the number of hidden states fitting European (EU) and African (AF) data sets of COVID-19 cases by blood type frequency. The study then compares the state-dependent mean of infection within and across the two geographical areas. The study findings show that the number of hidden states and infection rates within and across the two geographical areas differ according to blood type.

Keywords: BP-HMM, COVID-19, blood types, GIBBS sampler

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Authors: Maria V. Mishatkina

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The modelling of dialogical environment is an essential feature of modern education. The dialogue of cultures is a foundation and an important prerequisite for a formation of a human’s main moral qualities such as an ability to understand another person, which is manifested in such values as tolerance, respect, mutual assistance and mercy. A formation of a modern expert occurs in an educational environment that is significantly different from what we had several years ago. Nowadays university education has qualitatively new characteristics. They may be observed in Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), a top Russian higher education institution which unites representatives of more than 150 countries. The content of its educational strategies is not an adapted cultural experience but material between science and innovation. Besides, RUDN University’s profiles and specialization are not equal to the professional structures. People study not a profession in a strict sense but a basic scientific foundation of an activity in different socio-cultural areas (science, business and education). RUDN University also provides a considerable unit of professional education components. They are foreign languages skills, economic, political, ethnic, communication and computer culture, theory of information and basic management skills. Moreover, there is a rich social life (festive multicultural events, theme parties, journeys) and prospects concerning the inclusive approach to education (for example, a special course ‘Social Pedagogy: Issues of Tolerance’). In our research, we use such methods as analysis of modern and contemporary scientific literature, opinion poll (involving students, teachers and research workers) and comparative data analysis. We came to the conclusion that knowledge transfer of RUDN student in the activity happens through making goals, problems, issues, tasks and situations which simulate future innovative ambiguous environment that potentially prepares him/her to dialogical way of life. However, all these factors may not take effect if there is no ‘personal inspiration’ of students by communicative and dialogic values, their participation in a system of meanings and tools of learning activity that is represented by cooperation within the framework of scientific and pedagogical schools dialogue. We also found out that dominating strategies of ensuring the quality of education are those that put students in the position of the subject of their own education. Today these strategies and approaches should involve such approaches and methods as task, contextual, modelling, specialized, game-imitating and dialogical approaches, the method of practical situations, etc. Therefore, University in the modern sense is not only an educational institution, but also a generator of innovation, cooperation among nations and cultural progress. RUDN University has been performing exactly this mission for many decades.

Keywords: dialogical developing situation, dialogue of cultures, readiness for dialogue, university graduate

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Authors: Boudemagh Naime

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Automatic radar detection requires some methods of adapting to variations in the background clutter in order to control their false alarm rate. The problem becomes more complicated in non-Gaussian environment. In fact, the conventional approach in real time applications requires a complex statistical modeling and much computational operations. To overcome these constraints, we propose another approach based on artificial neural network (ANN-CMLD-CFAR) using a Back Propagation (BP) training algorithm. The considered environment follows a log-normal distribution in the presence of multiple Rayleigh-targets. To evaluate the performances of the considered detector, several situations, such as scale parameter and the number of interferes targets, have been investigated. The simulation results show that the ANN-CMLD-CFAR processor outperforms the conventional statistical one.

Keywords: radat detection, ANN-CMLD-CFAR, log-normal clutter, statistical modelling

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Authors: Karen K. Perez-Ramirez, Genevieve Dupont, Virginia Gonzalez-Velez

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Pancreatic alpha-cells participate on glucose regulation together with beta cells. They release glucagon hormone when glucose level is low to stimulate gluconeogenesis from the liver. As other excitable cells, alpha cells generate Ca2+ and metabolic oscillations when they are stimulated. It is known that the glucose level can trigger or silence this activity although it is not clear how this occurs in normal and diabetic people. In this work, we propose an electric-metabolic mathematical model implemented in Matlab to study the effect of different glucose levels on the electrical response and Ca2+ oscillations of an alpha cell. Our results show that Ca2+ oscillations appear in opposite phase with metabolic oscillations in a window of glucose values. The model also predicts a direct relationship between the level of glucose and the intracellular adenine nucleotides showing a self-regulating pathway for the alpha cell.

Keywords: Ca2+ oscillations, mathematical model, metabolic oscillations, pancreatic alpha cell

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Authors: Fida Isam Abdulhafiz

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Traditional vernacular architecture in the United Arab Emirates constituted namely of adobe houses with a limited number of openings in their facades. The thick mud and rubble walls and wooden window screens protected its inhabitants from the harsh desert climate and provided them with privacy and fulfilled their comfort zone needs to an extent. However, with the rise of the immediate post petroleum era reinforced concrete villas with glass and steel technology has replaced traditional vernacular dwellings. And more load was put on the mechanical cooling systems to ensure the satisfaction of today’s more demanding doweling inhabitants. However, In the early 21at century professionals started to pay more attention to the carbon footprint caused by the built constructions. In addition, many studies and innovative approaches are now dedicated to lower the impact of the existing operating buildings on their surrounding environments. The UAE government agencies started to regulate that aim to revive sustainable and environmental design through Local and international building codes and urban design policies such as Estidama and LEED. The focus in this paper is on the reduction of the emissions resulting from the use of energy sources in the cooling and heating systems, and that would be through using innovative screen designs and façade solutions to provide a green footprint and aesthetic architectural icons. Screens are one of the popular innovative techniques that can be added in the design process or used in existing building as a renovation techniques to develop a passive green buildings. Preparing future architects to understand the importance of environmental design was attempted through physical modelling of window screens as an educational means to combine theory with a hands on teaching approach. Designing screens proved to be a popular technique that helped them understand the importance of sustainable design and passive cooling. After creating models of prototype screens, several tests were conducted to calculate the amount of Sun, light and wind that goes through the screens affecting the heat load and light entering the building. Theory further explored concepts of green buildings and material that produce low carbon emissions. This paper highlights the importance of hands on experience for student architects and how physical modelling helped rise eco awareness in Design studio. The paper will study different types of façade screens and shading devices developed by Architecture students and explains the production of diverse patterns for traditional screens by student architects based on sustainable design concept that works properly with the climate requirements in the Middle East region.

Keywords: building’s screens modeling, façade design, sustainable architecture, sustainable dwellings, sustainable education

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Authors: Tomáš Ludík, Jiří Barta, Josef Navrátil

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Natural or human made disasters have a significant negative impact on the environment. At the same time there is an extensive effort to support management and decision making in emergency situations by information technologies. Therefore the purpose of the paper is to propose a design patterns applicable in emergency management, enabling better analysis and design of emergency management processes and therefore easier development and deployment of information systems in the field of emergency management. It will be achieved by detailed analysis of existing emergency management legislation, contingency plans, and information systems. The result is a set of design patterns focused at emergency management processes that enable easier design of emergency plans or development of new information system. These results will have a major impact on the development of new information systems as well as to more effective and faster solving of emergencies.

Keywords: analysis and design, Business Process Modelling Notation, contingency plans, design patterns, emergency management

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Authors: Bryan Low

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In the coming decades, the global maritime industry will face a most formidable environmental challenge -achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. To meet this target, the Maritime Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) has worked to establish green shipping and digital corridors with ports of several other countries around the world where ships will use low-carbon alternative fuels such as ammonia for power generation. While this paradigm shift to the bunkering of greener fuels is encouraging, fuels like ammonia will also introduce a new and unique type of environmental risk in the unlikely scenario of a spill. While numerous modelling studies have been conducted for oil spills and their associated environmental impact on coastal and marine ecosystems, ammonia spills are comparatively less well understood. For example, there is a knowledge gap regarding how the complex hydrodynamic conditions of the Singapore Straits may influence the dispersion of a hypothetical ammonia plume, which has different physical and chemical properties compared to an oil slick. Chemically, ammonia can be absorbed by phytoplankton, thus altering the balance of the marine nitrogen cycle. Biologically, ammonia generally serves the role of a nutrient in coastal ecosystems at lower concentrations. However, at higher concentrations, it has been found to be toxic to many local species. It may also have the potential to trigger eutrophication and harmful algal blooms (HABs) in coastal waters, depending on local hydrodynamic conditions. Thus, the key objective of this research paper is to support the development of a model-based forecasting system that can predict ammonia plume behaviour in coastal waters, given prevailing hydrodynamic conditions and their environmental impact. This will be essential as ammonia bunkering becomes more commonplace in Singapore’s ports and around the world. Specifically, this system must be able to assess the HAB-triggering potential of an ammonia plume, as well as its lethal and sub-lethal toxic effects on local species. This will allow the relevant authorities to better plan risk mitigation measures or choose a time window with the ideal hydrodynamic conditions to conduct ammonia bunkering operations with minimal risk. In this paper, we present the first part of such a forecasting system: a jointly coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model that can capture how advection-diffusion processes driven by ocean currents influence plume behaviour and how the plume interacts with the marine nitrogen cycle. The model is then applied to various ammonia spill scenarios where the results are discussed in the context of current ammonia toxicity guidelines, impact on local ecosystems, and mitigation measures for future bunkering operations conducted in the Singapore Straits.

Keywords: ammonia bunkering, forecasting, harmful algal blooms, hydrodynamics, marine nitrogen cycle, oceanography, water quality modeling

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Authors: Nader Al-Rashidi, David Greenhalgh

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Mathematical modelling techniques are now being used by health organizations worldwide to help understand the likely impact that intervention strategies treatment options and combinations of these have on the prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the people who inject drugs (PWID) population. In this poster, we develop a deterministic, compartmental mathematical model to approximate the spread of the HCV in a PWID population that has been divided into two groups by time since onset of injection. The model assumes that after injection needles adopt the most infectious state of their previous state or that of the PWID who last injected with them. Using analytical techniques, we find that the model behaviour is determined by the basic reproductive number R₀, where R₀ = 1 is a critical threshold separating two different outcomes. The disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R₀ ≤ 1 and unstable if R₀ > 1. Additionally, we make some simulations where have confirmed that the model tends to this endemic equilibrium value with realistic parameter values giving an HCV prevalence.

Keywords: hepatitis C, people who inject drugs, HCV, PWID

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Authors: A. S. Zgalei, B. T. Al-Mabrouk

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With a particularly significant growth rate observed in the Libyan commercial and residential buildings coupled with a growth in energy demand, solar desiccant evaporative cooling offers energy savings and promises a good sharing for sustainable buildings where the availability of solar radiation matches with the cooling load demand. The paper presents a short introduction for the desiccant systems. A mathematical model of a selected system has been developed and a simulation has been performed in order to investigate the system performance at different working conditions and an optimum design of the system structure is established. The results showed a technical feasibility of the system working under the Libyan climatic conditions with a reasonable COP at temperatures that can be obtained through the solar reactivation system. Discussion of the results and the recommendations for future work are proposed.

Keywords: computer program, solar desiccant wheel cooling, system modelling, simulation, technical feasibility

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Authors: Sabria Barka, Imen Gdara, Zouhour Ouanès, Samia Mouelhi, Monia El Bour, Amel Hamza-Chaffai

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Because dams are large semi-closed reservoirs of pollutants originating from numerous anthropogenic activities, they represent a threat to aquatic life and they should be monitored. The present work aims to use freshwater zooplankton (Copepods and Cladocerans) in order to evaluate the environmental health status of Bir M'cherga dam in Tunisia. Animals were collected in situ monthly between October and August. Genotoxicity (micronucleus test), neurotoxicity (acetylcholinesterase, AChE) and oxidative stress (catalase, CAT and malondialdehyde, MDA) biomarkers were analyzed in zooplankton. High frequencies of micronucleus were observed in zooplankton cells during summer. AChE activities were inhibited during early winter and summer. CAT and MDA biomarker levels showed high seasonal variability, suggesting that animals are permanently exposed to multiple oxidative stress. The results of this study suggest that the Bir Mcherga dam is subject to continuous multi-origin stress, probably amplified by abiotic parameters. It is then recommended to urgently monitor freshwater environments in Tunisia, especially those used for irrigation and consumption.

Keywords: Biomonitoring, Bir Mcherga Dam, cladocerans, copepods, freshwater zooplankton, genotoxicity, neurotoxicity, oxidative stress, Tunisia

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Authors: Hubert Pun

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When a manufacturer outsources the production of a product, it distributes its intellectual property (IP) into a supply chain that it may not be able to fully control. An IP agreement between a manufacturer and its suppliers is a popular solution to address the challenge of supplier-copycatting. The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of copycatting, from both the supplier and third-party firms, and the effectiveness of an IP agreement. Specifically, we use a game-theoretic approach to examine a system where a manufacturer outsources to a supplier. The supplier and a third-party firm decide whether or not to enter the market with copycat products while the manufacturer selects the level of marketing investment. The manufacturer can reduce the threat of supplier-copycatting by signing an IP agreement. We find that the manufacturer can be worse off from signing an IP agreement with its supplier, even if the IP agreement is costless and perfectly enforceable. We show that a manufacturer can deter copycat products through vertical integration and IP agreements and we outline the instances where each method is preferred. Furthermore, we find that the manufacturer may choose not to invest in quality improvements as a copycat deterrence strategy. We show that the supplier can benefit from the manufacturer’s decision to sign an IP agreement and that the supplier and the consumers can benefit from government regulations against copycat products. Our paper demonstrates the strengths and limitations of various copycat deterrence strategies when a supplier and third-party may produce copycat products.

Keywords: coopetitive supply chain, copycat, government regulation, intellectual property

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Authors: Salma El Aimani

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Freshwater is an essential material in our daily life; its availability is on the decline due to population growth and climate change. To meet the demand for fresh water in regions where reserves are insufficient, several countries have adopted seawater desalination. Several physical methods allow the production of fresh water from seawater; among these methods are distillation and reverse osmosis, and there is great potential to use renewable energy sources such as solar Photovoltaics. The work presented in this paper consists of three parts. First, the generalities of desalination technologies will be presented. The second part is devoted to the presentation of different water desalination systems combined with renewable energy and their benefits and drawbacks on different sides. In the third part, we will perform a modeling of a PV water desalination system under Matlab Simulink software. Then, according to the obtained simulation results, we conclude this paper with the prospects of the presented work.

Keywords: reverse-osmosis, desalination, modelling, ‎irradiation, Matlab

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Authors: Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević, Lidija R. Jevrić, Stela Jokić

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The subject of this paper is to correlate antibacterial behavior of benzimidazole derivatives with their molecular characteristics using chemometric QSAR (Quantitative Structure–Activity Relationships) approach. QSAR analysis has been carried out on the inhibitory activity of benzimidazole derivatives against Staphylococcus aureus. The data were processed by linear least squares (LLS) and artificial neural network (ANN) procedures. The LLS mathematical models have been developed as a calibration models for prediction of the inhibitory activity. The quality of the models was validated by leave one out (LOO) technique and by using external data set. High agreement between experimental and predicted inhibitory acivities indicated the good quality of the derived models. These results are part of the CMST COST Action No. CM1306 "Understanding Movement and Mechanism in Molecular Machines".

Keywords: Antibacterial, benzimidazoles, chemometric, QSAR.

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Authors: A. Bouchakour, L. Zaghba, M. Brahami, A. Borni

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The work presented in this paper present the design and the simulation of a centrifugal pump coupled to a photovoltaic (PV) generator via a MPPT controller. The PV system operating is just done in sunny period by using water storage instead of electric energy storage. The process concerns the modelling, identification and simulation of a photovoltaic pumping system, the centrifugal pump is driven by an asynchronous three-phase voltage inverter sine triangle PWM motor through. Two configurations were simulated. For the first, it is about the alimentation of the motor pump group from electrical power supply. For the second, the pump unit is connected directly to the photovoltaic panels by integration of a MPPT control. A code of simulation of the solar pumping system was initiated under the Matlab-Simulink environment. Very convivial and flexible graphic interfaces allow an easy use of the code and knowledge of the effects of change of the sunning and temperature on the pumping system.

Keywords: photovoltaic generator, chopper, electrical motor, centrifugal pump

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Authors: Zhao Pengcheng, Yin Siyuan

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Fintech is the new hot topic of the 21st century, a discipline that combines financial theory with computer modelling. It can provide both digital analysis methods for investment banks and investment decisions for users. Given the variety of services available, it is necessary to provide a superior method of requirements elicitation to ensure that users' needs are addressed in the software development process. The accuracy of traditional software requirements elicitation methods is not sufficient, so this study attempts to use a multi-perspective based requirements heuristic framework. Methods such as interview and questionnaire combination, card sorting, and model driven are proposed. The collection results from PCA show that the new methods can better help with requirements elicitation. However, the method has some limitations and, there are some efficiency issues. However, the research in this paper provides a good theoretical extension that can provide researchers with some new research methods and perspectives viewpoints.

Keywords: requirement elicitation, FinTech, mobile application, survey, interview, model-driven

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Authors: Li̇zan Mahmood Khorsheed Zangana

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Experimental and numerical investigations have been carried out to study the mechanism of separation energy and flow phenomena in the counter-flow vortex tube. This manuscript presents a complete comparison between the experimental investigation and CFD analysis. The experimental model tested under different inlet pressures. Three-dimensional numerical modelling using the k-ε model. The results show any increase in both cold mass fraction and inlet pressure caused to increase ΔTc, and the maximum ΔTc value occurs at P = 6 bar. The coefficient of performance (COP) of two important factors in the vortex tube have been evaluated, which ranged from 0.25 to 0.74. The maximum axial velocity is 93, where it occurs at the tube axis close the inlet exit (Z/L=0.2). The results showed a good agreement for experimental and numerical analysis.

Keywords: counter flow, vortex tube, computational fluid dynamics analysis, energy separation, experimental study

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Authors: Ivana Bulog, Ana Rimac Smiljanić, Sandra Pepur

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The financial fragility of households has received increased attention following the recent health crisis, which has created uncertainty and caused increased levels of stress and consequently impaired individual and family well-being. Job losses and/or reduced wages and insecurity increased the number of people that were unable to meet unexpected expenses, which, in many cases, led to increased household debt levels. This presents a threat to the stability of the financial system and the whole economy; therefore, reducing financial fragility and improving financial literacy present challenges for academicians, practitioners, and policymakers. Concerning financial fragility, significant research attention has been devoted to financial knowledge and financial literacy. However, apart from specific knowledge, personal characteristics are of great importance in making financial decisions in the household. Self-efficacy is one of the personal non-cognitive attributes that is a valuable framework for understanding how household financial decisions are made. Thus, this research proposes that individual levels of financial literacy and self-efficacy are related to the indebtedness and financial instability of the household. The primary data were collected using a structured, self-administered online questionnaire, and a snowball sampling method was applied to reach the participants. Preliminary results confirm our assumptions on the influence of financial literacy and self-efficacy on household financial stability.

Keywords: financial literacy, self-efficacy, household financial fragility, well-being

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Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

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Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA

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Authors: Fabrizio Ascione, Martina Borrelli, Rosa Francesca De Masi, Silvia Ruggiero, Giuseppe Peter Vanoli

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The Directive 2010/31/EC 'Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 may 2010 on the energy performance of buildings' moved the targets of the previous version toward more ambitious targets, for instance by establishing that, by 31 December 2020, all new buildings should demand nearly zero-energy. Moreover, the demonstrative role of public buildings is strongly affirmed so that also the target nearly zero-energy buildings is anticipated, in January 2019. On the other hand, given the very low turn-over rate of buildings (in Europe, it ranges between 1-3%/yearly), each policy that does not consider the renovation of the existing building stock cannot be effective in the short and medium periods. According to this proposal, the study provides a novel, holistic approach to design the refurbishment of educational buildings in colder cities of Mediterranean regions enabling stakeholders to understand the uncertainty to use numerical modelling and the real environmental and economic impacts of adopting some energy efficiency technologies. The case study is a university building of Molise region in the centre of Italy. The proposed approach is based on the application of the cost-optimal methodology as it is shown in the Delegate Regulation 244/2012 and Guidelines of the European Commission, for evaluating the cost-optimal level of energy performance with a macroeconomic approach. This means that the refurbishment scenario should correspond to the configuration that leads to lowest global cost during the estimated economic life-cycle, taking into account not only the investment cost but also the operational costs, linked to energy consumption and polluting emissions. The definition of the reference building has been supported by various in-situ surveys, investigations, evaluations of the indoor comfort. Data collection can be divided into five categories: 1) geometrical features; 2) building envelope audit; 3) technical system and equipment characterization; 4) building use and thermal zones definition; 5) energy building data. For each category, the required measures have been indicated with some suggestions for the identifications of spatial distribution and timing of the measurements. With reference to the case study, the collected data, together with a comparison with energy bills, allowed a proper calibration of a numerical model suitable for the hourly energy simulation by means of EnergyPlus. Around 30 measures/packages of energy, efficiency measure has been taken into account both on the envelope than regarding plant systems. Starting from results, two-point will be examined exhaustively: (i) the importance to use validated models to simulate the present performance of building under investigation; (ii) the environmental benefits and the economic implications of a deep energy refurbishment of the educational building in cold climates.

Keywords: energy simulation, modelling calibration, cost-optimal retrofit, university building

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Authors: Alaa A. Osman, Amgad M. Bayoumy Aly, Ismail El baialy, Osama E. Abdellatif, Essam E. Khallil

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In this paper, a numerical simulation of a finned store separating from a wing-pylon configuration has been studied and validated. A dynamic unstructured tetrahedral mesh approach is accomplished by using three grid sizes to numerically solving the discretized three dimensional, inviscid and compressible Navier-stokes equations. The method used for computations of separation of an external store assuming quasi-steady flow condition. Computations of quasi-steady flow have been directly coupled to a six degree-of-freedom (6DOF) rigid-body motion code to generate store trajectories. The pressure coefficients at four different angular cuts and time histories of various trajectory parameters during the store separation are compared for every grid size with published experimental data.

Keywords: CFD modelling, transonic store separation, quasi-steady flow, moving-body trajectories

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Authors: Ion Smeureanu, Adriana Reveiu, Marian Dardala, Titus Felix Furtuna, Roman Kanala

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This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing domestic energy consumption, in Romania. Both techno-economic and consumer behavior approaches have been considered, in order to develop the model. The proposed model aims to reduce the energy consumption, in households, by assembling in a unitary model, aspects concerning: residential lighting, space heating, hot water, and combined space heating – hot water, space cooling, and passenger transport. This paper focuses on space heating domestic energy consumption model, and quantify not only technical-economic issues, but also consumer behavior impact, related to people decision to envelope and insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.

Keywords: consumer behavior, open source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS), MARKAL/TIMES Romanian energy model, virtual technologies

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Authors: Tsai-Yun Liao, Fang-Yi Hsu

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Consumer behavior and consumption patterns have changed in reacting to the threat of COVID-19 pandemic situations. In order to explore the factors affecting customers’ purchase intention under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, this research uses structural equation modeling to explore the effect of media effect, conformity, and personality on customers’ purchase intention. Four essential objectives are investigated: how does media affect the conformity and perceived value of customers; the effect of media effect, conformity, and personality on customers’ purchase intention; the moderating effect of personality; and the mediating effect of perceived value toward purchase intention. By convenience sampling method, 428 questionnaires were collected, and the total number of valid samples was 406. Data analysis and results indicate that: (1) The media effect positively affects conformity. (2) The media effect positively affects perceived value. (3) Both conformity and perceived value positively affect purchase intention. (4) Consumer’s personality of openness to experience moderates the relationship between conformity and purchase intention. (5) Media effect affects purchase intention through the mediating effect of perceived value. This study contributes to the research by providing the factors affecting customers’ purchase intention and to the enterprises by maintaining incumbent customers and attracting potential customers.

Keywords: COVID-19, media effect, conformity, personality, purchase intention

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Authors: A. H. Elkholy, A. H. Falah

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A new approach has been developed to estimate the load share and stress distribution of worm gear sets. The approach is based upon considering the instantaneous tooth meshing stiffness where the worm gear drive was modelled as a series of spur gear slices, and each slice was analyzed separately using the well established formulae of spur gears. By combining the results obtained for all slices, the entire envolute worm gear set loading and stressing was obtained. The geometric modelling method presented, allows tooth elastic deformation and tooth root stresses of worm gear drives under different load conditions to be investigated. On the basis of the method introduced in this study, the instantaneous meshing stiffness and load share were obtained. In comparison with existing methods, this approach has both good analysis accuracy and less computing time.

Keywords: gear, load/stress distribution, worm, wheel, tooth stiffness, contact line

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Authors: Sajid Iqbal Sheikh

Abstract:

From almost last 100 years 'political islam' has diversity in its usage as terminology in the speculative works of both muslim and non-muslims theorists. 'Political islam' as a term was coined consciously as equal to the 'militant islam' and “Terrorist Islam” vs “Plain Islam” and “Modern Islam” etc. Many paradigm shifts tamed the term into one of the hottest debate of the day. This research paper aims to categorize historical linkage of its coinage, development phases and present status. Based on content analysis, Narrative approach has been utilized for the sake of dexterous conclusion. The paper treasures out that Western dominance on civilizational and political spheres of the holistic world considers 'political islam' a gigantic threat and plans to resist it in theoretic and practical fields simultaneously. Despite minor strategic variances, the ideological followers of Syed Qutab, Mulana Mudoodi and Hasan Al-Bana, are struggling hard for the achievement of their ultimate goal of Political change, specifically in the Muslim World in the prior phase. The paper concludes that Resistance to Islamic resurgence and its Political goals is being observed in most of the Muslim world, especially in the Turkey, Algeria, Egypt, Tsunia and Yeman etc, which is a basic cause of contrary reaction in the Muslim World.

Keywords: electoral process, islamic resurgence, islamic political theory, muslim response, resistance, western hegemony

Procedia PDF Downloads 433

Authors: I. A. Simsek, S. N. Dogan, A. S. Kipcak, E. Morodor Derun, N. Tugrul

Abstract:

In this study, the drying characteristics of shrimp are studied by using the traditional drying method of oven. Drying temperatures are selected between 60-80°C. Obtained experimental drying results are applied to eleven mathematical models of Alibas, Aghbashlo et al., Henderson and Pabis, Jena and Das, Lewis, Logaritmic, Midilli and Kucuk, Page, Parabolic, Wang and Singh and Weibull. The best model was selected as parabolic based on the highest coefficient of determination (R²) (0.999990 at 80°C) and the lowest χ² (0.000002 at 80°C), and the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) (0.000976 at 80°C) values are compared to other models. The effective moisture diffusivity (Deff) values were calculated using the Fick’s second law’s cylindrical coordinate approximation and are found between 6.61×10⁻⁸ and 6.66×10⁻⁷ m²/s. The activation energy (Ea) was calculated using modified form of Arrhenius equation and is found as 18.315 kW/kg.

Keywords: activation energy, drying, effective moisture diffusivity, modelling, oven, shrimp

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: David A. Olasehinde, Peter I. Olasehinde, Segun M. A. Adelana, Dapo O. Olasehinde

Abstract:

An investigation was carried out on underground water system dynamics within Ilorin metropolis to monitor the subsurface flow and its corresponding pollution. Africa population growth rate is the highest among the regions of the world, especially in urban areas. A corresponding increase in waste generation and a change in waste composition from predominantly organic to non-organic waste has also been observed. Percolation of leachate from non-engineered landfills, the chief means of waste disposal in many of its cities, constitutes a threat to the underground water bodies. Ilorin city, a transboundary town in southwestern Nigeria, is a ready microcosm of Africa’s unique challenge. In spite of the fact that groundwater is naturally protected from common contaminants such as bacteria as the subsurface provides natural attenuation process, groundwater samples have been noted to however possesses relatively higher dissolved chemical contaminants such as bicarbonate, sodium, and chloride which poses a great threat to environmental receptors and human consumption. The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used as a tool to illustrate, subsurface dynamics and the corresponding pollutant indicators. Forty-four sampling points were selected around known groundwater pollutant, major old dumpsites without landfill liners. The results of the groundwater flow directions and the corresponding contaminant transport were presented using expert geospatial software. The experimental results were subjected to four descriptive statistical analyses, namely: principal component analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, scree plot analysis, and Ward cluster analysis. Regression model was also developed aimed at finding functional relationships that can adequately relate or describe the behaviour of water qualities and the hypothetical factors landfill characteristics that may influence them namely; distance of source of water body from dumpsites, static water level of groundwater, subsurface permeability (inferred from hydraulic gradient), and soil infiltration. The regression equations developed were validated using the graphical approach. Underground water seems to flow from the northern portion of Ilorin metropolis down southwards transporting contaminants. Pollution pattern in the study area generally assumed a bimodal pattern with the major concentration of the chemical pollutants in the underground watershed and the recharge. The correlation between contaminant concentrations and the spread of pollution indicates that areas of lower subsurface permeability display a higher concentration of dissolved chemical content. The principal component analysis showed that conductivity, suspended solids, calcium hardness, total dissolved solids, total coliforms, and coliforms were the chief contaminant indicators in the underground water system in the study area. Pearson correlation revealed a high correlation of electrical conductivity for many parameters analyzed. In the same vein, the regression models suggest that the heavier the molecular weight of a chemical contaminant of a pollutant from a point source, the greater the pollution of the underground water system at a short distance. The study concludes that the associative properties of landfill have a significant effect on groundwater quality in the study area.

Keywords: dumpsite, leachate, groundwater pollution, linear regression, principal component

Procedia PDF Downloads 99