Search results for: statistical distribution

Authors: Mingyu Xie, Mietek Brdys

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The paper develops a non-linear model predictive control (NMPC) of water quality in drinking water distribution systems (DWDS) based on the advanced non-linear quality dynamics model including disinfections by-products (DBPs). A special attention is paid to the analysis of an impact of the flow trajectories prescribed by an upper control level of the recently developed two-time scale architecture of an integrated quality and quantity control in DWDS. The new quality controller is to operate within this architecture in the fast time scale as the lower level quality controller. The controller performance is validated by a comprehensive simulation study based on an example case study DWDS.

Keywords: model predictive control, hierarchical control structure, genetic algorithm, water quality with DBPs objectives

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Authors: Marzieh Ahmadi, Ruhullah Alikhan Gorgani

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The usual methods of measuring regional inequalities can not reflect the internal changes of the country in terms of their displacement in different development groups, and the indicators of inequalities are not effective in demonstrating the dynamics of the distribution of inequality. For this purpose, this paper examines the dynamics of the urban inertial transport in the country during the period of 2006-2016 using the CIRD multidimensional index and stochastic kernel density method. it firstly selects 25 indicators in five dimensions including macroeconomic conditions, science and innovation, environmental sustainability, human capital and public facilities, and two-stage Principal Component Analysis methodology are developed to create a composite index of inequality. Then, in the second stage, using a nonparametric analytical approach to internal distribution dynamics and a stochastic kernel density method, the convergence hypothesis of the CIRD index of the Iranian provinces center is tested, and then, based on the ergodic density, long-run equilibrium is shown. Also, at this stage, for the purpose of adopting accurate regional policies, the distribution dynamics and process of convergence or divergence of the Iranian provinces for each of the five. According to the results of the first Stage, in 2006 & 2016, the highest level of development is related to Tehran and zahedan is at the lowest level of development. The results show that the central cities of the country are at the highest level of development due to the effects of Tehran's knowledge spillover and the country's lower cities are at the lowest level of development. The main reason for this may be the lack of access to markets in the border provinces. Based on the results of the second stage, which examines the dynamics of regional inequality transmission in the country during 2006-2016, the first year (2006) is not multifaceted and according to the kernel density graph, the CIRD index of about 70% of the cities. The value is between -1.1 and -0.1. The rest of the sequence on the right is distributed at a level higher than -0.1. In the kernel distribution, a convergence process is observed and the graph points to a single peak. Tends to be a small peak at about 3 but the main peak at about-0.6. According to the chart in the final year (2016), the multidimensional pattern remains and there is no mobility in the lower level groups, but at the higher level, the CIRD index accounts for about 45% of the provinces at about -0.4 Take it. That this year clearly faces the twin density pattern, which indicates that the cities tend to be closely related to each other in terms of development, so that the cities are low in terms of development. Also, according to the distribution dynamics results, the provinces of Iran follow the single-density density pattern in 2006 and the double-peak density pattern in 2016 at low and moderate inequality index levels and also in the development index. The country diverges during the years 2006 to 2016.

Keywords: Urban Disparity, CIRD Index, Convergence, Distribution Dynamics, Random Kernel Density

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Authors: S. H. Arnaud Kanga, O. Hili, S. Dabo-Niang

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Spatial prediction is an issue appealing and attracting several fields such as agriculture, environmental sciences, ecology, econometrics, and many others. Although multiple non-parametric prediction methods exist for spatial data, those are based on the conditional expectation. This paper took a different approach by examining a non-parametric spatial predictor of the conditional quantile. The study especially observes the stationary multidimensional spatial process over a rectangular domain. Indeed, the proposed quantile is obtained by inverting the conditional distribution function. Furthermore, the proposed estimator of the conditional distribution function depends on three kernels, where one of them controls the distance between spatial locations, while the other two control the distance between observations. In addition, the almost complete convergence and the convergence in mean order q of the kernel predictor are obtained when the sample considered is alpha-mixing. Such approach of the prediction method gives the advantage of accuracy as it overcomes sensitivity to extreme and outliers values.

Keywords: conditional quantile, kernel, nonparametric, stationary

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Authors: Aydin Teymourifar, Gurkan Ozturk

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In this paper, a hybrid distributed algorithm has been suggested for multi-objective dynamic flexible job shop scheduling problem. The proposed algorithm is high level, in which several algorithms search the space on different machines simultaneously also it is a hybrid algorithm that takes advantages of the artificial intelligence, evolutionary and optimization methods. Distribution is done at different levels and new approaches are used for design of the algorithm. Apache spark and Hadoop frameworks have been used for the distribution of the algorithm. The Pareto optimality approach is used for solving the multi-objective benchmarks. The suggested algorithm that is able to solve large-size problems in short times has been compared with the successful algorithms of the literature. The results prove high speed and efficiency of the algorithm.

Keywords: distributed algorithms, apache-spark, Hadoop, flexible dynamic job shop scheduling, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Qingying Liu, S. Liu, L. Hao, B. Zhang, J. D. Yan

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HVDC technology is becoming increasingly popular due to its simplicity in topology and less power loss over long distance of power transmission, in comparison with HVAC technology. However, the dielectric behavior of insulators in the long term under HVDC stress is completely different from that under HVAC stress as a result of charge accumulation in a constant electric field. Insulators used in practical systems are never perfect in their structural conditions. Over time shallow cracks may develop on their surface. The presence of defects can lead to drastic change in their dielectric behaviour and thus increase the probability of surface flashover. In this contribution, experimental investigations have been carried out on the charge accumulation phenomenon on the surface of a rod insulator made of epoxy that is placed between two disk shaped electrodes at different voltage levels and in different gases (SF6, CO2 and N2). Many results obtained, such as, the two-dimensional electrostatic potential distribution along the insulator surface after the removal of the power source following a pre-defined period of application. The probe has been carefully calibrated before each test. Results show that surface charge distribution near the two disk shaped electrodes is not uniform in the circumferential direction, possibly due to the imperfect electrical connections between the embeded conductor in the insulator and the disk shaped electrodes. The axial length of this non-uniform region is experimentally determined, which provides useful information for shielding design. A charge transport model is also used to explain the formation of the long term electrostatic potential distribution under a constant applied voltage.

Keywords: HVDC, power systems, dielectric behavior, insulation, charge accumulation

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Authors: Li Xu, Huanbao Jiang, Zhenfei Huang, Lailai Zhang

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In recent years, as global warming, the sea-ice extent of North Arctic undergoes an evident decrease and Arctic channel has attracted the attention of shipping industry. Ice crystals existing in the seawater of Arctic channel which enter the seawater system of the ship with the seawater were found blocking the seawater pipe. The appearance of cooler paralysis, auxiliary machine error and even ship power system paralysis may be happened if seriously. In order to reduce the effect of high temperature in auxiliary equipment, seawater system will use external ice-water to participate in the cooling cycle and achieve the state of its flow. The distribution of ice crystals in seawater pipe can be achieved. As the ice slurry system is solid liquid two-phase system, the flow process of ice-water mixture is very complex and diverse. In this paper, the flow process in seawater pipe of ice slurry is simulated with fluid dynamics simulation software based on k-ε turbulence model. As the ice packing fraction is a key factor effecting the distribution of ice crystals, the influence of ice packing fraction on the flowing process of ice slurry is analyzed. In this work, the simulation results show that as the ice packing fraction is relatively large, the distribution of ice crystals is uneven in the flowing process of the seawater which has such disadvantage as increase the possibility of blocking, that will provide scientific forecasting methods for the forming of ice block in seawater piping system. It has important significance for the reliability of the operating of polar ships in the future.

Keywords: ice slurry, seawater pipe, ice packing fraction, numerical simulation

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Authors: Kiurski S. Jelena, Oros B. Ivana, Kecić S. Vesna, Kovačević M. Ilija, Aksentijević M. Snežana

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The adsorption efficiency of various adsorbents for the removal of Zn(II) ions from the waste printing developer was studied in laboratory batch mode. The maximum adsorption efficiency of 94.1% was achieved with unfired clay pellets size (d≈15 mm). The obtained values of adsorption efficiency was subjected to the independent samples t-test in order to investigate the statistically significant differences of the investigated adsorbents for the effective removal of Zn(II) ions from the waste printing developer. The most statistically significant differences of adsorption efficiencies for Zn(II) ions removal were obtained between unfired clay pellets size (d≈15 mm) and activated carbon (|t|= 6.909), natural zeolite (|t|= 10.380), mixture of activated carbon and natural zeolite (|t|= 9.865), bentonite (|t|= 6.159), fired clay (|t|= 6.641), fired clay pellets size (d≈5 mm) (|t|= 6.678), fired clay pellets size (d≈8 mm) (|t|= 3.422), respectively.

Keywords: Adsorption efficiency, adsorbent, statistical analysis, zinc ion.

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Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

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In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

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Authors: Juan Ignacio Arango, Andres Diaz, Giacomo Barbieri

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In soilless culture, the definition of efficient fertigation strategies is fundamental for the growth of crops. Flexible test-benches able to independently manage groups of crops are key for investigating efficient fertigation practices through experimentation. These test-benches must be able to provide nutrient solution (NS) in a precise, uniform and repeatable way in order to effectively implement and compare different fertigation strategies. This article describes a distribution module for investigating fertigation practices able to control the fertigation dose and frequency. The proposed solution is characterized in terms of precision, uniformity and repeatability since these parameters are fundamental in the implementation of effective experiments for the investigation of fertigation practices. After a calibration process, the implemented system reaches a precision of 1mL, a uniformity of 98.5% at a total cost of 735USD.

Keywords: recision horticulture, test-bench, fertigation strategy, automation, flexibility

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Authors: Wu Yiqun, Weng Jiantao

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The human settlements of China are picked up from the land use vector map by interpreting the Thematic Map of 2014. This paper established the sustainable human settlements geographical division evaluation system and division model using GIS. The results show that: The density of human residential areas in China is different, and the density of sustainable human areas is higher, and the west is lower than that in the West. The regional differences of sustainable human settlements are obvious: the north is larger than that the south, the plain regions are larger than those of the hilly regions, and the developed regions are larger than the economically developed regions. The geographical distribution of the sustainable human settlements is measured by the degree of porosity. The degree of porosity correlates with the sustainable human settlement density. In the area where the sustainable human settlement density is high the porosity is low, the distribution is even and the gap between the settlements is low.

Keywords: GIS, geographical division, sustainable human settlements, China

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Authors: Ikah Ning Prasetiowati Permanasari, Gunawan Handayani, Lilik Hendrajaya

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Landslide occurence at Mukapayung, Cililin West Java with material movement downward slope as far as 500m and hit residential areas of the village Nagrog cause eighteen people died and ten homes were destroyed and twenty-three heads of families evacuated. In order to test the hypothesis that soil at the landslides area is prone to landslides, we do drilling and the following tests were taken: particle size distribution, atterberg limits, shear strength, density, shringkage limits and triaxial unconsolidated and consolidated undrained test. Factor of safety was calculated to find out the possibility of subsequent landslides. The value of FOS of three layers is 1,05 which means that the soil in a critical condition and would be imminent to slide if there is disruption from the outside.

Keywords: atterberg limits, particle size distribution, shear strength parameters, slope geometry, factor of safety

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Authors: Jasbir Singh, Devender Kumar, Davender Redhu, Surender Kumar, Vandana Bhardwaj

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Single Nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of proteosomal gene complex is involved in the pathogenesis of hepatitis B Virus (HBV) infection. Some of such proteosomal gene complex are large multifunctional proteins (LMP) and antigen associated transporters that help in antigen presentation. Both are involved in intracellular processing and presentation of viral antigens in association with Major Histocompatability Complex (MHC) Class I molecules. A total of hundred each of hepatitis B virus infected and control samples from northern India were studied. Genomic DNA was extracted from all studied samples and PCR-RFLP method was used for genotyping at different positions of LMP genes. Genotypes at a given position were inferred from the pattern of bands and genotype frequencies and haplotype frequencies were also calculated. Homozygous SNP {A>C} was observed at codon 145 of LMP7 gene and having a protective role against HBV as there was statistically significant high distribution of this SNP among controls than cases. Heterozygous SNP {A>C} was observed at codon 145 of LMP7 gene and made individuals more susceptible to HBV infection as there was statistically significant high distribution of this SNP among cases than control. SNP {T>C} was observed at codon 60 of LMP2 gene but statistically significant differences were not observed among controls and cases. For codon 145 of LMP7 and codon 60 of LMP2 genes, four haplotypes were constructed. Haplotype I (LMP2 ‘C’ and LMP7 ‘A’) made individuals carrying it more susceptible to HBV infection as there was statistically significant high distribution of this haplotype among cases than control. Haplotype II (LMP2 ‘C’ and LMP7 ‘C’) made individuals carrying it more immune to HBV infection as there was statistically significant high distribution of this haplotype among control than cases. Thus it can be concluded that homozygous SNP {A>C} at codon 145 of LMP7 and Haplotype II (LMP2 ‘C’ and LMP7 ‘C’) has a protective role against HBV infection whereas heterozygous SNP {A>C} at codon 145 of LMP7 and Haplotype I (LMP2 ‘C’ and LMP7 ‘A’) made individuals more susceptible to HBV infection.

Keywords: Hepatitis B Virus, single nucleotide polymorphism, low molecular weight proteins, transporters associated with antigen presentation

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Authors: G. Julius P. Roy, Prateek Saxena, Sanjeev Singh

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Power distribution utilities two decades ago would collect data from its customers not later than a period of at least one month. The origin of SmartGrid and AMI has subsequently increased the sampling frequency leading to 1000 to 10000 fold increase in data quantity. This increase is notable and this steered to coin the tern Big Data in utilities. Power distribution industry is one of the largest to handle huge and complex data for keeping history and also to turn the data in to significance. Majority of the utilities around the globe are adopting SmartGrid technologies as a mass implementation and are primarily focusing on strategic interdependence and synergies of the big data coming from new information sources like AMI and intelligent SCADA, there is a rising need for new models of data management and resurrected focus on analytics to dissect data into descriptive, predictive and dictatorial subsets. The goal of this paper is to is to bring load disaggregation into smart energy toolkit for commercial usage.

Keywords: data management, analytics, energy data analytics, smart grid, smart utilities

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Authors: Mohammad Ridzwan Bin Abd Rahim, Siegfried Schmauder, Yupiter HP Manurung, Peter Binkele, Meor Iqram B. Meor Ahmad, Kiarash Dogahe

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This paper deals with the short crack initiation of the material P91 under cyclic loading at two different temperatures, concluded with the estimation of the short crack initiation Wöhler (S/N) curve. An artificial but representative model microstructure was generated using Voronoi tessellation and the Finite Element Method, and the non-uniform stress distribution was calculated accordingly afterward. The number of cycles needed for crack initiation is estimated on the basis of the stress distribution in the model by applying the physically-based Tanaka-Mura model. Initial results show that the number of cycles to generate crack initiation is strongly correlated with temperature.

Keywords: short crack initiation, P91, Wöhler curve, Voronoi tessellation, Tanaka-Mura model

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Authors: Simon Mauma Efange

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The main aims of this research were to describe, in co-relational terms, the relationship, if any, between reading comprehension and academic achievement in science studied at the secondary level and, secondly, to find out possible trends in gender differences, such as whether boys would perform better than girls or vice versa. This research employed a quantitative design. Two kinds of instruments were employed: the Oxford Online Placement Test and the Local Assessment System Test. The Oxford Online Placement Test assesses students' English level quickly and easily. The results of these tests were subjected to statistical analysis using a special statistical software called SPSS. Statistical tools such as mean, standard deviation, percentages, frequencies, t-tests, and Pearson’s coefficient of correlation were used for the analysis of the results. Results of the t-test showed that the means are significantly different. Calculating the p-value revealed that the results were extremely statistically significant at p <.05. The value of r (Pearson correlation coefficient) was 0.2868. Although technically there is a positive correlation, the relationship between the variables is only weak (the closer the value is to zero, the weaker the relationship). However, in conclusion, calculations from the t-test using SPSS revealed that the results were statistically significant at p <.05, confirming a relationship between the two variables, and high scores in reading will give rise to slightly high scores in science. The research also revealed that having a high score in reading comprehension doesn’t necessarily mean having a high score in science or vice versa. Female subjects performed much better than male subjects in both tests, which is in line with the literature reviewed for this research.

Keywords: achievement in science, achievement in English, and bilingual students, relationship

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Authors: Weishou Shen, Chunyan Yang, Zhongliang Li

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The crop climate productivity and the distribution of cropland reflect long-term adaption of agriculture to climate. In order to fully understand the impact of climate change on cropland ecosystem in Tibet, the spatiotemporal changes of crop climate productivity and cropland distribution were analyzed with the help of GIS and RS software. Results indicated that the climate change to the direction of wet and warm in Tibet in the recent 30 years, with a rate of 0.79℃/10 yr and 23.28 mm/10yr respectively. Correspondingly, the climate productivity increased gradually, with a rate of 346.3kg/(hm2•10a), of which, the fastest-growing rate of the crop climate productivity is in Southern Tibet Mountain- plain-valley. During the study period, the total cropland area increased from 32.54 million ha to 37.13 million ha, and cropland has expanded to higher altitude area and northward. Overall, increased cropland area and crop climate productivity due to climate change plays a positive role for agriculture in Tibet.

Keywords: climate change, productivity, cropland area, Tibet plateau

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Authors: Malay Bhattacharyya, Saparya Suresh

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The Correlation Structure associated with a portfolio is subjected to vary across time. Studying the structural breaks in the time-dependent Correlation matrix associated with a collection had been a subject of interest for a better understanding of the market movements, portfolio selection, etc. The current paper proposes a methodology for testing the change in the time-dependent correlation structure of a portfolio in the high dimensional data using the techniques of generalized inverse, singular valued decomposition and multivariate distribution theory which has not been addressed so far. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test are derived. Also, the performance and the validity of the method is tested on a real data set. The proposed test performs well for detecting the change in the dependence of global markets in the context of high dimensional data.

Keywords: correlation structure, high dimensional data, multivariate distribution theory, singular valued decomposition

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Authors: Ahmad Fahim Nasiry, Shigeo Honma

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We examine two-dimensional oil displacement by water in a petroleum reservoir. The pore fluid is immiscible, and the porous media is homogenous and isotropic in the horizontal direction. Buckley-Leverett theory and a combination of Laplacian and Darcy’s law are used to study the fluid flow through porous media, and the Laplacian that defines the dispersion and diffusion of fluid in the sand using heavy oil is discussed. The reservoir is homogenous in the horizontal direction, as expressed by the partial differential equation. Two main factors which are observed are the water saturation and pressure distribution in the reservoir, and they are evaluated for predicting oil recovery in two dimensions by a physical and mathematical simulation model. We review the numerical simulation that solves difficult partial differential reservoir equations. Based on the numerical simulations, the saturation and pressure equations are calculated by the iterative alternating direction implicit method and the iterative alternating direction explicit method, respectively, according to the finite difference assumption. However, to understand the displacement of oil by water and the amount of water dispersion in the reservoir better, an interpolated contour line of the water distribution of the five-spot pattern, that provides an approximate solution which agrees well with the experimental results, is also presented. Finally, a computer program is developed to calculate the equation for pressure and water saturation and to draw the pressure contour line and water distribution contour line for the reservoir.

Keywords: numerical simulation, immiscible, finite difference, IADI, IDE, waterflooding

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Authors: Marta Błażkiewicz-Mazurek, Adam Konefał

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The project can be divided into three main parts: i. modeling the Cf-252 neutron source and conducting an experiment to verify the correctness of the obtained results, ii. design of the BNCT system infrastructure, iii. analysis of the results from the logical detector. Modeling of the Cf-252 source included designing the shape and size of the source as well as the energy and spatial distribution of emitted neutrons. Two options were considered: a point source and a cylindrical spatial source. The energy distribution corresponded to various spectra taken from specialized literature. Directionally isotropic neutron emission was simulated. The simulation results were compared with experimental values determined using the activation detector method using indium foils and cadmium shields. The relative fluence rate of thermal and resonance neutrons was compared in the chosen places in the vicinity of the source. The second part of the project related to the modeling of the BNCT infrastructure consisted of developing a simulation program taking into account all the essential components of this system. Materials with moderating, absorbing, and backscattering properties of neutrons were adopted into the project. Additionally, a gamma radiation filter was introduced into the beam output system. The analysis of the simulation results obtained using a logical detector located at the beam exit from the BNCT infrastructure included neutron energy and their spatial distribution. Optimization of the system involved changing the size and materials of the system to obtain a suitable collimated beam of thermal neutrons.

Keywords: BNCT, Monte Carlo, neutrons, simulation, modeling

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Authors: Sally Hosny, Mona G. Ibrahim, N. K. Hassan

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Fiber reinforced polymers (FRP) is one of the most environmentally method for strengthening and retrofitting steel structure buildings. The behaviour of flexural strengthened steel I-beams using FRP was investigated. The finite element (FE) models were developed using ANSYS® as verification cases to simulate the experimental behaviour of using FRP strips to flexure strengthen steel I-beam. Two experimental studies were selected for verification; first examined the effect of different thicknesses and modulus of elasticity while the second studied the effect of applying different carbon fiber reinforced polymers (CFRP) bond lengths. The proposed FE models were in good agreement with the experimental results in terms of failure modes, load bearing capacities and strain distribution on CFRP strips. The verified FE models can be utilized to conduct a parametric study where various widths (40, 50, 60, 70 and 80 mm), thickness (1.2, 2 and 4 mm) and lengths (1500, 1700 and 1800 mm) of CFRP were analyzed. The results presented clearly revealed that the load bearing capacity was significantly increased (+7%) when the width and thickness were increased. However, load bearing capacity was slightly affected using longer CFRP strips. Moreover, applying another glass fiber reinforced polymers (GFRP) of 1500 mm in length, 50 mm in width and thicknesses of 1.2, 2 and 4 mm were investigated. Load bearing capacity of strengthened I-beams using GFRP is less than CFRP by average 8%. Statistical analysis has been conducted using Minitab®.

Keywords: FRP, strengthened steel I-beams, flexural, FEM, ANSYS

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Authors: Bassem Nassar, Wessam Hussein, Medhat Mokhtar

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The crucial concern of satellite operations is to ensure the health and safety of satellites. The worst case in this perspective is probably the loss of a mission but the more common interruption of satellite functionality can result in compromised mission objectives. All the data acquiring from the spacecraft are known as Telemetry (TM), which contains the wealth information related to the health of all its subsystems. Each single item of information is contained in a telemetry parameter, which represents a time-variant property (i.e. a status or a measurement) to be checked. As a consequence, there is a continuous improvement of TM monitoring systems in order to reduce the time required to respond to changes in a satellite's state of health. A fast conception of the current state of the satellite is thus very important in order to respond to occurring failures. Statistical multivariate latent techniques are one of the vital learning tools that are used to tackle the aforementioned problem coherently. Information extraction from such rich data sources using advanced statistical methodologies is a challenging task due to the massive volume of data. To solve this problem, in this paper, we present a proposed unsupervised learning algorithm based on Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique. The algorithm is particularly applied on an actual remote sensing spacecraft. Data from the Attitude Determination and Control System (ADCS) was acquired under two operation conditions: normal and faulty states. The models were built and tested under these conditions and the results shows that the algorithm could successfully differentiate between these operations conditions. Furthermore, the algorithm provides competent information in prediction as well as adding more insight and physical interpretation to the ADCS operation.

Keywords: space telemetry monitoring, multivariate analysis, PCA algorithm, space operations

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Authors: K. Chalernpon, P. Aroonjarattham, K. Aroonjarattham

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Total hip replacement had been one of the most successful operations in hip arthritis surgery. The purpose of this research had been to develop a dynamic hip contact of Thai femoral bone to analyze the stress distribution on the implant and the strain distribution on the bone model under daily activities and compared with the static load simulation. The results showed the different of maximum von Mises stress 0.14 percent under walking and 0.03 percent under climbing stair condition and the different of equivalent total strain 0.52 percent under walking and 0.05 percent under climbing stair condition. The muscular forces should be evaluated with dynamic condition to reduce the maximum von Mises stress and equivalent total strain.

Keywords: dynamic loading, static load, hip prosthesis, Thai femur, femoral bone, finite element analysis

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Authors: Joleen L. H. Lee, K. F. Yen, Janette W. P. Ng, D. Woon, Mandy M. Y. Lau, Ivan M. H. Woo, S. N. Goh

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Case assignment systems are created to meet a need for equity in work distribution and better match between medical social workers' (MSWs) competencies and patients' problems. However, there is no known study that has explored how MSWs in Singapore assign cases to achieve equity in work distribution. Focus group discussions were conducted with MSWs from public hospitals to understand their perception on equitable workload and case allocation. Three approaches to case allocation were found. First is the point system where points are allocated to cases based on a checklist of presenting issues identified most of the time by non-MSWs. Intensity of case is taken into consideration, but allocation of points is often subject to variation in appreciation of roles of MSWs by the source of referral. Second is the round robin system, where all MSWs are allocated cases based on a roster. This approach resulted in perceived equity due to element of luck, but it does not match case complexity with competencies of MSWs. Third approach is unit-based allocation, where MSWs are assigned to attend to cases from specific unit. This approach helps facilitate specialization among MSWs but may result in MSWs having difficulty providing transdisciplinary care due to narrow set of knowledge and skills. Trade-offs resulted across existing approaches for case allocation by MSWs. Conversations are needed among Singapore MSWs to decide on a case allocation system that comes with trade-offs that are acceptable for patients and other key stakeholders of the care delivery system.

Keywords: case allocation, equity, medical social worker, work distribution

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Authors: Sarkawt M. Hama, Paul S. Monks, Rebecca L. Cordell

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Within the Joaquin project, ultrafine particles (UFP) are continuously measured at one urban background site in Leicester. The main aims are to examine the temporal and seasonal variations in UFP number concentration and size distribution in an urban environment, and to try to assess the added value of continuous UFP measurements. In addition, relations of UFP with more commonly monitored pollutants such as black carbon (BC), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM2.5), and the lung deposited surface area(LDSA) were evaluated. The effects of meteorological conditions, particularly wind speed and direction, and also temperature on the observed distribution of ultrafine particles will be detailed. The study presents the results from an experimental investigation into the particle number concentration size distribution of UFP, BC, and NOX with measurements taken at the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) monitoring site in Leicester. The monitoring was performed as part of the EU project JOAQUIN (Joint Air Quality Initiative) supported by the INTERREG IVB NWE program. The total number concentrations (TNC) were measured by a water-based condensation particle counter (W-CPC) (TSI model 3783), the particle number concentrations (PNC) and size distributions were measured by an ultrafine particle monitor (UFP TSI model 3031), the BC by MAAP (Thermo-5012), the NOX by NO-NO2-NOx monitor (Thermos Scientific 42i), and a Nanoparticle Surface Area Monitor (NSAM, TSI 3550) was used to measure the LDSA (reported as μm2 cm−3) corresponding to the alveolar region of the lung between November 2013 and November 2015. The average concentrations of particle number concentrations were observed in summer with lower absolute values of PNC than in winter might be related mainly to particles directly emitted by traffic and to the more favorable conditions of atmospheric dispersion. Results showed a traffic-related diurnal variation of UFP, BC, NOX and LDSA with clear morning and evening rush hour peaks on weekdays, only an evening peak at the weekends. Correlation coefficients were calculated between UFP and other pollutants (BC and NOX). The highest correlation between them was found in winter months. Overall, the results support the notion that local traffic emissions were a major contributor of the atmospheric particles pollution and a clear seasonal pattern was found, with higher values during the cold season.

Keywords: size distribution, traffic emissions, UFP, urban area

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Authors: Sergio Paez Moncaleano, Alvaro Mauricio Montenegro

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This paper presents a novel statistical methodology for measuring and founding constructs in Latent Regression Analysis. This approach uses the qualities of Factor Analysis in binary data with interpretations on Item Response Theory (IRT). In addition, based on the fundamentals of submodel theory and with a convergence of many ideas of IRT, we propose an algorithm not just to solve the dimensionality problem (nowadays an open discussion) but a new research field that promises more fear and realistic qualifications for examiners and a revolution on IRT and educational research. In the end, the methodology is applied to a set of real data set presenting impressive results for the coherence, speed and precision. Acknowledgments: This research was financed by Colciencias through the project: 'Multidimensional Item Response Theory Models for Practical Application in Large Test Designed to Measure Multiple Constructs' and both authors belong to SICS Research Group from Universidad Nacional de Colombia.

Keywords: item response theory, dimensionality, submodel theory, factorial analysis

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Authors: B. Gangloff, L. Mayoral, A. Rezrazi

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Three types of salary distribution are usually proposed by the theorists of distributive justice: Equality, equity and need. Their influence has been studied, taking into consideration (in terms of equity) the performance of the employees and their degree of allegiance/rebellion in what regards discriminatory hierarchical orders, by taking into account the reasons of such allegiance/rebellion (allegiance out of conviction, legalism or opportunism/ethical rebellion). Conducted in Argentina, the study has confronted 480 students (240 male and 240 female) with a practical case in which they had to advise a manager of a real estate agency on the allocation of a bonus amongst his employees. The latter were characterized according to their respective performance, one of them being further defined as being (or not) in a financial need and as having complied (or not) with a discriminatory hierarchical order regarding foreigners. The results show that the distribution of the bonus only follows the rules of equity and need: The employees more efficient, allegiant or in need, are rewarded more than the others. It is also noteworthy that the allegiant employees are rewarded in the same way, regardless of the reason for their allegiance, and that the employee who refuses to adopt a discriminatory conduct is penalized.

Keywords: distributive justice, equity, performance, allegiance, ethics

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Authors: T. Costa, D. Narvaez, K. Melo, M. Villalva

Abstract:

Installation of micro-generators based on renewable energy in power distribution system has increased in recent years, with the main renewable sources being solar and wind. Due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, such micro-generators produce time-varying energy which does not correspond at certain times of the day to the peak energy consumption of end users. For this reason, the use of energy storage units next to the grid contributes to the proper leveling of the buses’ voltage level according to Brazilian energy quality standards. In this work, the effect of the addition of a photovoltaic solar generator and a store of energy in the busbar voltages of an electric system is analyzed. The consumption profile is defined as the average hourly use of appliances in a common residence, and the generation profile is defined as a function of the solar irradiation available in a locality. The power summation method is validated with analytical calculation and is used to calculate the modules and angles of the voltages in the buses of an electrical system based on the IEEE standard, at each hour of the day and with defined load and generation profiles. The results show that bus 5 presents the worst voltage level at the power consumption peaks and stabilizes at the appropriate range with the inclusion of the energy storage during the night time period. Solar generator maintains improvement of the voltage level during the period when it receives solar irradiation, having peaks of production during the 12 pm (without exceeding the appropriate maximum levels of tension).

Keywords: energy storage, power distribution system, solar generator, voltage level

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Authors: Larry Turkish

Abstract:

Introduction: The NBA is an example of mediocrity and this will be evident in the following paper. The study examines and evaluates the characteristics of the NBA champions. As divisions and playoff teams increase, there is an increase in the probability that the champion originates from the mediocre category. Since it’s inception in 1947, the league has been mediocre and continues to this day. Why does a professional league allow any team with a less than 50% winning percentage into the playoffs? As long as the finances flow into the league, owners will not change the current algorithm. The objective of this paper is to determine if the regular season has meaning in finding an NBA champion. Statistical Analysis: The data originates from the NBA website. The following variables are part of the statistical analysis: Rank, the rank of a team relative to other teams in the league based on the regular season win-loss record; Winning Percentage of a team based on the regular season; Divisions, the number of divisions within the league and Playoff Teams, the number of playoff teams relative to a particular season. The following statistical applications are applied to the data: Pearson Product-Moment Correlation, Analysis of Variance, Factor and Regression analysis. Conclusion: The results indicate that the divisional structure and number of playoff teams results in a negative effect on the winning percentage of playoff teams. It also prevents teams with higher winning percentages from accessing the playoffs. Recommendations: 1. Teams that have a winning percentage greater than 1 standard deviation from the mean from the regular season will have access to playoffs. (Eliminates mediocre teams.) 2. Eliminate Divisions (Eliminates weaker teams from access to playoffs.) 3. Eliminate Conferences (Eliminates weaker teams from access to the playoffs.) 4. Have a balanced regular season schedule, (Reduces the number of regular season games, creates equilibrium, reduces bias) that will reduce the need for load management.

Keywords: alignment, mediocrity, regression, z-score

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Authors: Hamisu Idi

Abstract:

The present study focuses on studying the impact of influencer recommendation in the quality of cement production. Exploratory research was done on monthly basis, where data were obtained from secondary source i.e. the record kept by an automated recompilation machine. The machine keeps all the records of the mills downtime which the process manager checks for validation and refer the fault (if any) to the department responsible for maintenance or measurement taking so as to prevent future occurrence. The findings indicated that the product of the Ashaka Cement Plc. were considered as qualitative, since all the production processes were found to be in control (preset specifications) with the exception of the natural cause of variation which is normal in the production process as it will not affect the outcome of the product. It is reduced to the bearest minimum since it cannot be totally eliminated. It is also hopeful that the findings of this study would be of great assistance to the management of Ashaka cement factory and the process manager in particular at various levels in the monitoring and implementation of statistical process control. This study is therefore of great contribution to the knowledge in this regard and it is hopeful that it would open more research in that direction.

Keywords: cement, quality, variation, assignable cause, common cause

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Authors: Ernesto A. Lagarda-Leyva, Manuel A. Valenzuela L., José G. Oshima C., Arnulfo A. Naranjo-Flores

Abstract:

From August to December of 2016, a diagnostic and strategic planning study was carried out on the supply chain of the company Agropecuaria GABO S.A. de C.V. The final product of the study was the development of the strategic plan and a project portfolio to meet the demands of the three links in the supply chain of the Roma tomato exported annually to the United States of America. In this project, the strategic objective of ensuring the proper handling of the product was selected and one of the goals associated with this was the employment of quantitative methods to support decision making. Considering the antecedents, the objective of this case study was to develop a model to analyze the behavioral dynamics in the distribution chain, from the logistics of storage and shipment of Roma tomato in 81-case pallets (11.5 kg per case), to the two pre-cooling rooms and eventual loading onto transports, seeking to reduce the bottleneck and the associated costs by means of a dynamic interface. The methodology used was that of system dynamics, considering four phases that were adapted to the purpose of the study: 1) the conceptualization phase; 2) the formulation phase; 3) the evaluation phase; and 4) the communication phase. The main practical conclusions lead to the possibility of reducing both the bottlenecks in the cooling rooms and the costs by simulating scenarios and modifying certain policies. Furthermore, the creation of the dynamic interface between the model and the stakeholders was achieved by generating interaction with buttons and simple instructions that allow making modifications and observing diverse behaviors.

Keywords: agrilogistics, distribution, scenarios, system dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 224