Search results for: loyalty price premium

Authors: Yiseyon Hosu, Joseph Akande

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Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries and is largely consumed in South Africa. It has a special place in the South African economy because of its significance in food security, trade, and industry. This paper modelled and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in South Africa in the time covid-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by using annual time series data from 1940–2021 based on the ARIMA models. Both the averaging forecast and selected models forecast indicate that there is the possibility of an increase with respect to production. The minimum and maximum growth in production is projected to be between 3million and 10 million tons, respectively. However, the model also forecast a possibility of depression with respect to consumption in South Africa. Although Covid-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, two major producers and exporters of global wheat, are having an effect on the volatility of the prices currently, the wheat production in South African is expected to increase and meat the consumption demand and provided an opportunity for increase export with respect to domestic consumption. The forecasting of production and consumption behaviours of major crops play an important role towards food and nutrition security, these findings can assist policymakers and will provide them with insights into the production and pricing policy of wheat in South Africa.

Keywords: ARIMA, food security, price volatility, staple food, South Africa

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Authors: Pirom Thangchitpianpol, Suttipong Jumroonrut

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This research investigates the distribution of food demand for animal food and the optimum amount of that food production at minimum cost. The data consist of customer purchase orders for the food of laying hens, price of food for laying hens, cost per unit for the food inventory, cost related to food of laying hens in which the food is out of stock, such as fine, overtime, urgent purchase for material. They were collected from January, 1990 to December, 2013 from a factory in Nakhonratchasima province. The collected data are analyzed in order to explore the distribution of the monthly food demand for the laying hens and to see the rate of inventory per unit. The results are used in a stochastic linear programming model for aggregate planning in which the optimum production or minimum cost could be obtained. Programming algorithms in MATLAB and tools in Linprog software are used to get the solution. The distribution of the food demand for laying hens and the random numbers are used in the model. The study shows that the distribution of monthly food demand for laying has a normal distribution, the monthly average amount (unit: 30 kg) of production from January to December. The minimum total cost average for 12 months is Baht 62,329,181.77. Therefore, the production planning can reduce the cost by 14.64% from real cost.

Keywords: animal food, stochastic linear programming, aggregate planning, production planning, demand uncertainty

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Authors: Shoaib Alvi

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Mahatma Gandhi was said “Man becomes great exactly in the degree in which he works for the welfare of his fellow-men”. Labor welfare is an important fact of Industrial relations. With the growth of industrialization, mechanization and computerization, labor welfare measures have got the fillip. The author believes that Labor welfare includes provisions of various facilities and amenities in and around the work place for the better life of the workers. Labor welfare is, thus, one of the major determinants of industrial relations. It comprises all human efforts the work place for the better life of the worker. The social and economic aspects of the life of the workers have the direct influence on the social and economic development of the nation. Author thinks that there could be multiple objectives in having, labor welfare programme the concern for improving the lot of the workers, a philosophy of humanitarianism or internal social responsibility, a feeling of concern, and caring by providing some of life's basic amenities, besides the basic pay packet. Such caring is supposed to build a sense of loyalty on the part of the employee towards the organization. The author thinks that Social security is the security that the State furnishes against the risks which an individual of small means cannot today, stand up to by himself even in private combination with his fellows. Social security is one of the pillars on which the structure of a welfare state rests, and it constitutes the hardcore of social policy in most countries. It is through social security measures that the state attempts to maintain every citizen at a certain prescribed level below which no one is allowed to fall. According to author, social assistance is a method according to which benefits are given to the needy persons, fulfilling the prescribed conditions, by the government out of its own resources. Author has analyzed and studied the relationship between the labor welfare social security and also studied various international conventions on provisions of social security by International Authorities like United Nations, International Labor Organization, and European Union etc. Author has also studied and analyzed concept of labor welfare and social security schemes of many countries around the globe ex:- Social security in Australia, Social security in Switzerland, Social Security (United States), Mexican Social Security Institute, Welfare in Germany, Social security schemes of India for labor welfare in both organized sector and unorganized sector. In this Research paper, Author has done the study on the Conceptual framework of the Labour Welfare. According to author, labors are highly perishable, which need constant welfare measures for their upgradation and performance in this field. At last author has studied role of trade unions and labor welfare unions and other institutions working for labor welfare, in this research paper author has also identified problems these Unions and labor welfare bodies’ face and tried to find out solutions for the problems and also analyzed various steps taken by the government of various countries around the globe.

Keywords: labor welfare, internal social responsibility, social security, international conventions

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Authors: Rita U. Onolemhemhen, Saheed L. Bello, Akin P. Iwayemi

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The effectiveness of energy demand policy depends on identifying the key drivers of energy demand both in the short-run and the long-run. This paper examines the influence of regional differences on the link between energy demand and other explanatory variables for Nigeria, China and USA using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. This study employed annual time series data on energy consumption (ED), real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (RGDP), real energy prices (P) and urbanization (N) for a thirty-six-year sample period. The utilized time-series data are sourced from World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI, 2016) and US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Results from the study, shows that all the independent variables (income, urbanization, and price) substantially affect the long-run energy consumption in Nigeria, USA and China, whereas, income has no significant effect on short-run energy demand in USA and Nigeria. In addition, the long-run effect of urbanization is relatively stronger in China. Urbanization is a key factor in energy demand, it therefore recommended that more attention should be given to the development of rural communities to reduce the inflow of migrants into urban communities which causes the increase in energy demand and energy excesses should be penalized while energy management should be incentivized.

Keywords: economic growth, energy demand, income, real GDP, urbanization, VECM

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Authors: Jitendra Aswani

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In the first section of this study, impact of Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on the synchronization of fourteen Asian Stock Markets (ASM’s) of countries like Hong Kong, India, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, China, Philippines and Sri Lanka, has been analysed using the network science and its metrics like degree of node, clustering coefficient and network density. Then in the second section of this study by introducing the US stock market in existing network and developing a Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) spread of crisis from the US stock market to Asian Stock Markets (ASM) has been explained. Data used for this study is adjusted the closing price of these indices from 6th January, 2000 to 15th September, 2013 which further divided into three sub-periods: Pre, during and post-crisis. Using network analysis, it is found that Asian stock markets become more interdependent during the crisis than pre and post crisis, and also Hong Kong, India, South Korea and Japan are systemic important stock markets in the Asian region. Therefore, failure or shock to any of these systemic important stock markets can cause contagion to another stock market of this region. This study is useful for global investors’ in portfolio management especially during the crisis period and also for policy makers in formulating the financial regulation norms by knowing the connections between the stock markets and how the system of these stock markets changes in crisis period and after that.

Keywords: global financial crisis, Asian stock markets, network science, Kruskal algorithm

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Authors: Nazanin Naderi, Milton Smith

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Since worldwide demand for renewable energy is increasing rapidly because of the climate problem and the limitation of fossil fuels, technologies of alternative energy sources have been developed and the electric power network now includes renewable energy resources such as wind energy. Because of the huge advantages that wind energy has, like reduction in natural gas use, price pressure, emissions of greenhouse gases and other atmospheric pollutants, electric sector water consumption and many other contributions to the nation’s economy like job creation it has got too much attention these days from different parts of the world especially in the United States which is trying to provide 20% of the nation’s energy from wind by 2030. This study is trying to evaluate the effect of splitting wind farms on power output. We are trying to find if we can get more output by installing wind turbines in different sites rather than installing all wind turbines in one site. Five potential sites in Texas have been selected as a case study and two years wind data has been gathered for these sites. Wind data are analyzed and effect of correlation between sites on power output has been evaluated. Standard deviation and autocorrelation effect has also been considered for this study. The paper has been organized as follows: After the introduction the second section gives a brief overview of wind analysis. The third section addresses the case study and evaluates correlation between sites, auto correlation of sites and standard deviation of power output. In section four we describe the results.

Keywords: auto correlation, correlation between sites, splitting wind farms, power output, standard deviation

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Authors: M. Israil Hossain, T. P. Tiwari, Ashrafuzzaman Gulandaz, Nusrat Jahan

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Two-wheel tractor (power tiller) is a common tillage tool in Bangladesh agriculture for easy access in fragmented land with affordable price of small farmers. Traditional maize sheller needs to be carried from place to place by hooking with two-wheel tractor (2WT) and set up again for shelling operation which takes longer time for preparation of maize shelling. The mobile maize sheller eliminates the transportation problem and can start shelling operation instantly any place as it is attached together with 2WT. It is counterclockwise rotating cylinder, axial flow type sheller, and grain separated with a frictional force between spike tooth and concave. The maize sheller is attached with nuts and bolts in front of the engine base of 2WT. The operating power of the sheller comes from the fly wheel of the engine of the tractor through ‘V” belt pulley arrangement. The average shelling capacity of the mobile sheller is 2.0 t/hr, broken kernel 2.2%, and shelling efficiency 97%. The average maize shelling cost is Tk. 0.22/kg and traditional custom hire rate is Tk.1.0/kg, respectively (1 US$=Tk.78.0). The service provider of the 2WT can transport the mobile maize sheller long distance in operator’s seating position. The manufacturers started the fabrication of mobile maize sheller. This mobile maize sheller is also compatible for the other countries where 2WT is available for farming operation.

Keywords: cost effective, mobile maize sheller, maize shelling capacity, small farmers, two wheel tractor

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Authors: Dai-Ling Li, Jung-Fa Cheng, Min-Lang Huang, Yun-Yao Chi

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The hedonic pricing model has been popularly applied to describe the economic value of environmental amenities in urban housing, but the results for cultural heritage variables remain relatively ambiguous. In this paper, integrated variables extending by GIS-based data and an existing typology of communities used to examine how cultural heritage and environmental amenities and disamenities affect housing prices across urban communities in Tainan, Taiwan. The developed models suggest that, although a sophisticated variable for central services is selected, the centrality of location is not fully controlled in the price models and thus picked up by correlated peripheral and central amenities such as cultural heritage, open space or parks. Analysis of these correlations permits us to qualify results and present a revised set of relatively reliable estimates. Positive effects on housing prices are identified for views, various types of recreational infrastructure and vicinity of nationally cultural sites and significant landscapes. Negative effects are found for several disamenities including wasteyards, refuse incinerators, petrol stations and industries. The results suggest that systematic hypothesis testing and reporting of correlations may contribute to consistent explanatory patterns in hedonic pricing estimates for cultural heritage and landscape amenities in urban.

Keywords: hedonic pricing model, cultural heritage, landscape amenities, housing

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Authors: Bruno de Almeida Vilela, Heinz Ahn, Ana Lúcia Miranda Lopes, Marcelo Azevedo Costa

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Benchmarking public utilities such as transmission system operators (TSOs) is one of the main strategies employed by regulators in order to fix monopolistic companies’ revenues. Since 2007 the Brazilian regulator has been utilizing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to benchmark TSOs. Despite the application of DEA to improve the transmission sector’s efficiency, some problems can be pointed out, such as the high price of electricity in Brazil; the limitation of the benchmarking only to operational expenses (OPEX); the absence of variables that represent the outcomes of the transmission service; and the presence of extremely low and high efficiencies. As an alternative to the current concept of benchmarking the Brazilian regulator uses, we propose a goal-oriented approach. Our proposal supports input/output selection by taking traditional organizational goals and measures as a basis for the selection of factors for benchmarking purposes. As the main advantage, it resolves the classical DEA problems of input/output selection, undesirable and dual-role factors. We also provide a demonstration of our goal-oriented concept regarding service quality. As a result, most TSOs’ efficiencies in Brazil might improve when considering quality as important in their efficiency estimation.

Keywords: decision making, goal-oriented benchmarking, input/output factor determination, TSO regulation

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Authors: L. E. Mphahama, A. Mushunje, A. Taruvinga

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Although broiler production does not generate any large incomes among the smallholder community, it represents the main source of livelihood and part of nutritional requirement. As a result, market for broiler meat is growing faster than that of any other meat products and is projected to continue growing in the coming decades. However, the implication is that a multitude of factors manipulates transformation of smallholder broiler farmers participating in the mainstream markets. From 217 smallholder broiler farmers, socio-economic and institutional factors in broiler farming were incorporated into Binary model to estimate the probability of broiler farmers’ participation in the mainstream markets within the Maseru district in Lesotho. Of the thirteen (13) predictor variables fitted into the model, six (6) variables (household size, number of years in broiler business, stock size, access to transport, access to extension services and access to market information) had significant coefficients while seven (7) variables (level of education, marital status, price of broilers, poultry association, access to contract, access to credit and access to storage) did not have a significant impact. It is recommended that smallholder broiler farmers organize themselves into cooperatives which will act as a vehicle through which they can access contracts and formal markets. These cooperatives will also enable easy training and workshops for broiler rearing and marketing/markets through extension visits.

Keywords: broiler chicken, mainstream market, Maseru district, participation, smallholder farmers

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Authors: Shital Suresh Borse, Vijayalaxmi Kadroli

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E-commerce industries nowadays implement the latest AI, ML Techniques to improve their own performance and prediction accuracy. This helps to gain a huge profit from the online market. Ant Colony Optimization, Genetic algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Neural Network & GWO help many e-commerce industries for up-gradation of their predictive performance. These algorithms are providing optimum results in various applications, such as stock price prediction, prediction of drug-target interaction & user ratings of similar products in e-commerce sites, etc. In this study, customer reviews will play an important role in prediction analysis. People showing much interest in buying a lot of services& products suggested by other customers. This ultimately increases net profit. In this work, a convolution neural network (CNN) is proposed which further is useful to optimize the prediction accuracy of an e-commerce website. This method shows that CNN is used to optimize hyperparameters of GWO algorithm using an appropriate coding scheme. Accurate model results are verified by comparing them to PSO results whose hyperparameters have been optimized by CNN in Amazon's customer review dataset. Here, experimental outcome proves that this proposed system using the GWO algorithm achieves superior execution in terms of accuracy, precision, recovery, etc. in prediction analysis compared to the existing systems.

Keywords: prediction analysis, e-commerce, machine learning, grey wolf optimization, particle swarm optimization, CNN

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Authors: J. Švarc-Gajić, A. Cvetanović

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Apigenin is a flavone synthetized by many plants and quite abundant in chamomile (Matricaria recutita) in its free form and in the form of its glucoside and different acylated forms. Many beneficial health effects have been attributed to apigenin, such as chemo-preventive, anxiolytic, anti-inflammatory, antioxidant and antispasmodic. It is reported that free apigenin is much more bioactive in comparison to its bound forms. Subcritical water offers numerous advantages in comparison to conventional extraction techniques, such as good selectivity, low price and safety. Superheated water exhibits high hydrolytical potential which must be carefully balanced when using this solvent for the extraction of bioactive molecules. Moderate hydrolytical potential can be exploited to liberate apigenin from its bound forms, thus increasing biological potential of obtained extracts. The polarity of pressurized water and its hydrolytical potential are highly dependent on the temperature. In this research chamomile ligulate flowers were extracted by pressurized hot water in home-made subcritical water extractor in conditions of convective mass transfer. The influence of the extraction temperature was investigated at 30 bars. Extraction yields of total phenols, total flavonoids and apigenin depending on the operational temperature were calculated based on spectrometric assays. Optimal extraction temperature for maximum yields of total phenols and flavonoids showed to be 160°C, whereas apigenin yield was the highest at 120°C.

Keywords: superheated water, temperature, chamomile, apigenin

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Authors: Umar Adli Amran, Tan Choon Chek, Mohd Shahkhirat Norizan, Then Kek Hoe

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Controlled release fertilizer (CRF) enables a regulated nutrients release for more efficient plant uptake compared to the normal granular fertilizer. It reduces nutrients loss via surface run-off and leaching, hence promotes sustainable agriculture. Although the performance of CRF in providing consistent and timely nutrients supply is well known, its expensive price limits it usage in a large scale plantation. This study is conducted to evaluate the properties and performance of bio-based polyurethane (PU)-coated CRF via laboratory and oil palm main nursery trial. The CRF is produced by coating of a normal commercial compound granular fertilizer from FGV Fertiliser Sdn. Bhd., namely Felda 10 (10.5-8-20-3+0.5B), and designated as CRF FGV10. Based on laboratory evaluation, the CRF FGV10 can sustain nutrients release for more than 6 months. Vegetative growth parameters such as girth size, palm height, third frond length, and the total number of fronds produced were recorded. Besides that, dry biomass of the oil palm seedlings was also determined. From the evaluation, it is proved that at 50% reduction of nutrients application rate and for only two times application (T3), CRF FGV10 enabled the oil palm seedlings to achieve similar vegetative growth with the control samples (T1). It is also proven that only PU-coated CRF FGV10 had allowed the reduction of fertilizer rate and application rounds.

Keywords: nutrition, oil palm seedlings, polyurethane, sustainable manuring, vegetative growth

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Authors: Mary Ann U. Baradi, Arnold R. Elepaño, Manuel Jose C. Regalado

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Aromatic rice has become popular and continues to command higher price than ordinary rice because of its distinctive scent that makes it special. Freshly harvested aromatic rice exhibits strong aromatic scent but decreases with time and conditions during storage. Of the many volatile compounds in aromatic rice, 2-acetyl-1-pyrroline (2AP) is a major compound that gives rice its popcorn-like aroma. The diffusion mechanism of 2AP in rice was investigated. Semi-empirical models explaining 2AP diffusion as affected by temperature and duration were developed. Storage time and temperature affected 2AP loss via diffusion. The amount of 2AP in rice decreased with time. Free 2AP, being volatile, is lost due to diffusion. Storage experiment indicated rapid 2AP loss during the first five weeks and subsequently leveled off afterwards; attaining level of starch bound 2AP. Decline of 2AP during storage followed exponential equation and exhibited four stages; i.e. the initial, second, third and final stage. Free 2AP is easily lost while bound 2AP is left, only to be released upon exposure to high temperature such as cooking. Both free and bound 2AP is found in endosperm while free 2AP is in the bran. Around 63–67% of total 2AP was lost in brown and milled rice of MS 6 paddy kept at ambient. Samples stored at higher temperature (27°C) recorded higher 2AP loss than those kept at lower temperature (15°C). The study should be able to guide processors in understanding and controlling parameters in storage to produce high quality rice.

Keywords: 2-acetyl-1-pyrroline, aromatic rice, diffusion mechanism, storage

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Authors: Ali Alotaibi, Francis Edum-Fotwe, Andrew Price /

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Mega construction projects create buildings and major infrastructure to respond to work and life requirements while playing a vital role in promoting any nation’s economy. However, the industry is often criticised for not balancing economic, environmental and social dimensions of their projects, with emphasis typically on one aspect to the detriment of the others. This has resulted in many negative impacts including environmental pollution, waste throughout the project lifecycle, low productivity, and avoidable accidents. The identification of comprehensive Social Responsibility (SR) indicators, which combine social, environmental and economic aspects, is urgently needed. This is particularly the case in the context of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which often has mega public construction projects. The aim of this paper is to develop a set of wide-ranging SR indicators which encompass social, economic and environmental aspects unique to the KSA. A qualitative approach was applied to explore relevant indicators through a review of the existing literature, international standards and reports. A list of appropriate indicators was developed, and its comprehensiveness was corroborated by interviews with experts on mega construction projects working with SR concepts in the KSA. The findings present 39 indicators and their metrics, covering 10 economic, 12 environmental and 17 social aspects of SR mapped against their references. These indicators are a valuable reference for decision-makers and academics in the KSA to understand factors related to SR in mega construction projects. The indicators are related to mega construction projects within the KSA and require validation in a real case scenario or within a different industry to demonstrate their generalisability.

Keywords: social responsibility, construction projects, economic, social, environmental, indicators

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Authors: Julius Ilawe Osayi, Peter Osifo

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Solid waste disposal, such as used tires is a global challenge as well as energy crisis due to rising energy demand amidst price uncertainty and depleting fossil fuel reserves. Therefore, the effectiveness of pyrolysis as a disposal method that can transform used tires into liquid fuel and other end-products has made the process attractive to researchers. Although used tires have been converted to liquid fuel using pyrolysis, there is the need to improve on the liquid fuel properties. Hence, this paper reports the investigation of zeolite NaY synthesized from kaolin, a locally abundant soil material in the Benin metropolis as a suitable catalyst and its effect on the properties of pyrolytic oil produced from used tires. The pyrolysis process was conducted for a range of 1 to 10 wt.% of catalyst concentration to used tire at a temperature of 600 oC, a heating rate of 15oC/min and particle size of 6mm. Although no significant increase in pyrolytic oil yield was observed compared to the previously investigated non-catalytic pyrolysis of a used tire. However, the Fourier transform infrared (FTIR), Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR); and Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) characterization results revealed the pyrolytic oil to possess an improved physicochemical and fuel properties alongside valuable industrial chemical species. This confirms the possibility of transforming kaolin into a catalyst suitable for improved fuel properties of the liquid fraction obtainable from thermal cracking of hydrocarbon materials.

Keywords: catalytic pyrolysis, fossil fuel, kaolin, pyrolytic oil, used tyres, Zeolite NaY

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Authors: Pichamon Chansuchai

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The study of Thai consumer behavior toward buying goods on the Internet is a survey research. The five-level rating scale and open-ended questionnaire are applied for this research procedure, which has more than 400 random sampling of Thai people aged between 15-40 years old. The summary findings are: The analysis of respondents profile were female 55.3% and male 44.8% , 35.3% aged between 20-30 years old, had been employed 29.5% with average income up to 11,000 baht/month 50.2% and expenditure more than 11,000 baht per month 29.3%. The internet usage behavior of respondents mostly found that objectives of the internet usage are: 1) Communication 93.3% 2) the categories of websites usage was trading 42.8% 3) The marketing mix effected to trading behavior via internet which can be analyzed in term of marketing factor as following: Product focused on product quality was the most influenced factor with average value 4.75. The cheaper price than overview market was the most effect factor to internet shopping with mean value 4.53. The average value 4.67 of the available place that could reduce spending time for shopping. The effective promotion of the buy 1 get 1 was the stimulus factor for internet shopping with mean value 4.60. For hypothesis testing, the different sex has relationship with buying decision. It presented that male and female have vary purchasing decision via internet with value of significant difference 0.05. Furthermore, the variety occupations of respondents related to the use of selected type of website. It also found that the vary of personal occupation effected to the type of website selection dissimilar with value of significant difference 0.05.

Keywords: behavior, internet, consumer, goods

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Authors: Bronwen Wade

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Over the last half-century, child welfare systems have increasingly relied on quantitative risk assessment tools, such as actuarial or predictive risk tools. These tools are developed by performing statistical analysis of how attributes captured in administrative data are related to future child maltreatment. Some scholars argue that attributes in administrative data can serve as proxies for race and that quantitative risk assessment tools reify racial bias in decision-making. Others argue that these tools provide more “objective” and “scientific” guides for decision-making instead of subjective social worker judgment. This study performs a systematic review of the literature on the impact of quantitative risk assessment tools on racial disproportionality; it examines methodological biases in work on this topic, summarizes key findings, and provides suggestions for further work. A search of CINAHL, PsychInfo, Proquest Social Science Premium Collection, and the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Collection was performed. Academic and grey literature were included. The review includes studies that use quasi-experimental methods and development, validation, or re-validation studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) were used to assess the risk of bias and guide data extraction for risk development, validation, or re-validation studies. ROBINS-I (Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions) was used to assess for bias and guide data extraction for the quasi-experimental studies identified. Due to heterogeneity among papers, a meta-analysis was not feasible, and a narrative synthesis was conducted. 11 papers met the eligibility criteria, and each has an overall high risk of bias based on the PROBAST and ROBINS-I assessments. This is deeply concerning, as major policy decisions have been made based on a limited number of studies with a high risk of bias. The findings on racial disproportionality have been mixed and depend on the tool and approach used. Authors use various definitions for racial equity, fairness, or disproportionality. These concepts of statistical fairness are connected to theories about the reason for racial disproportionality in child welfare or social definitions of fairness that are usually not stated explicitly. Most findings from these studies are unreliable, given the high degree of bias. However, some of the less biased measures within studies suggest that quantitative risk assessment tools may worsen racial disproportionality, depending on how disproportionality is mathematically defined. Authors vary widely in their approach to defining and addressing racial disproportionality within studies, making it difficult to generalize findings or approaches across studies. This review demonstrates the power of authors to shape policy or discourse around racial justice based on their choice of statistical methods; it also demonstrates the need for improved rigor and transparency in studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. Finally, this review raises concerns about the impact that these tools have on child welfare systems and racial disproportionality.

Keywords: actuarial risk, child welfare, predictive risk, racial disproportionality

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Authors: Amira Mabrouk, Chokri Abdennadher

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The reduction of road congestion which is inherent to the use of vehicles is an obvious priority to public authority. Therefore, assessing the willingness to pay of an individual in order to save trip-time is akin to estimating the change in price which was the result of setting up a new transport policy to increase the networks fluidity and improving the level of social welfare. This study holds an innovative perspective. In fact, it initiates an economic calculation that has the objective of giving an estimation of the monetized time value during the trips made in Sfax. This research is founded on a double-objective approach. The aim of this study is to i) give an estimation of the monetized value of time; an hour dedicated to trips, ii) determine whether or not the consumer considers the environmental variables to be significant, iii) analyze the impact of applying a public management of the congestion via imposing taxation of city tolls on urban dwellers. This article is built upon a rich field survey led in the city of Sfax. With the use of the contingent valuation method, we analyze the “declared time preferences” of 450 drivers during rush hours. Based on the fond consideration of attributed bias of the applied method, we bring to light the delicacy of this approach with regards to the revelation mode and the interrogative techniques by following the NOAA panel recommendations bearing the exception of the valorization point and other similar studies about the estimation of transportation externality.

Keywords: willingness to pay, contingent valuation, time value, city toll

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Authors: Y. Yılmaz, C. Ünal, A. Dursun

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Distribution channels play significant role for hotels. Direct and indirect selling options of hotel rooms have been increased especially with the help of new technologies, i.e. hotel’s own web sites and online booking sites. Although these options emerged as tools for diversifying the distribution channels, vast number of hotels -mostly resort hotels- is still heavily dependent upon international tour operators when selling their products. On the other hand, hotel sector is so vulnerable against crises. Economic, political or any other crisis can affect hotels very badly and so it is critical to have the right balance of distribution channel to avoid the adverse impacts of a crisis. In this study, it is aimed to search the impacts of a general crisis on the selling prices of hotels which have different weights of distribution channels. The study was done in Turkey where various crises occurred in 2015 and 2016 which had great negative impacts on Turkish tourism and led enormous occupancy rate and selling price reductions. 112 upscale resort hotel in Antalya, which is the most popular tourism destination of Turkey, joined to the research. According to the results, hotels with high dependency to international tour operators are more forced to reduce their room prices in crisis time compared to the ones which use their own web sites more. It was also found that the decline in room prices is limited for hotels which are working with national tour operators and travel agencies in crisis time.

Keywords: marketing channels, crisis, hotel, international tour operators, online travel agencies

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Authors: Trisiladi Supriyanto

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Although much research has been done on the pricing benchmark both in terms of fiqh or Islamic economic perspective, but no substitution for the concept of interest (rate of interest) up to now in the application of Islamic Banking because some of the jurists from the middle east even allow the use of a benchmark rate such as LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) as a measure of Islamic financial asset prices, so in other words, they equate the concept of rate of interest with the concept of rate of profit, which is the core reason (raison detre) for the replacement of usury as instructed in the Quran. This study aims to find the concept of rate of profit on Islamic banking that can create economic justice and stability in Islamic Banking and Capital market. Rate of profit that creates economic justice and stability can be achieved through its role in maintaining the stability of the financial system in which there is an equitable distribution of income and wealth. To determine the role of the rate of profit as the basis of the sharing system implemented in the Islamic financial system, we can see the connection of rate of profit in creating financial stability, especially in the asset-liability management of financial institutions that generate a stable net margin or the rate of profit that is not affected by the ups and downs of the market risk factors including indirect effect on interest rates. Furthermore, Islamic financial stability can be seen from the role of the rate of profit on the stability of the Islamic financial assets that are measured from the Islamic financial asset price volatility in Islamic Bond Market in Capital Market.

Keywords: Rate of profit, economic justice, stability, equitable distribution of income, equitable distribution of wealth

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Authors: Aldila Dyas Nurfitri

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Nowadays, leadership has became the one of main issues in forming organization groups even countries. The concept of a social contract between the leaders and subordinates become one of the explanations for the leadership process. The interests of the two parties are not always the same, but they must work together to achieve both goals. Based on the concept at the previous it comes “The Leader Member Exchange Theory”—well known as LMX Theory, which assumes that leadership is a process of social interaction interplay between the leaders and their subordinates. High-quality LMX relationships characterized by a high carrying capacity, informal supervision, confidence, and power negotiation enabled, whereas low-quality LMX relationships are described by low support, large formal supervision, less or no participation of subordinates in decision-making, and less confidence as well as the attention of the leader Application of formal supervision system in a low LMX behavior was in line with strict controls on toxic leadership model. Leaders must be able to feel toxic control all aspects of the organization every time. Leaders with this leadership model does not give autonomy to the staff. This behavior causes stagnation and make a resistant organizational culture in an organization. In Indonesia, the pattern of toxic leadership later evolved into a dysfunctional system that is growing rapidly. One consequence is the emergence of corrupt behavior. According to Kellerman, corruption is defined as a pattern and some subordinates behave lie, cheat or steal to a degree that goes beyond the norm, they put self-interest than the common good.According to the corruption data in Indonesia based on the results of ICW research on 2012 showed that the local government sector ranked first with 177 cases. Followed by state or local enterprises as much as 41 cases. LMX is defined as the quality of the relationship between superiors and subordinates are implications for the effectiveness and progress of the organization. The assumption of this theory that leadership as a process of social interaction interplay between the leaders and his followers are characterized by a number of dimensions, such as affection, loyalty, contribution, and professional respect. Meanwhile, the toxic leadership is dysfunctional leadership in organization that is led by someone with the traits are not able to adjust, do not have integrity, malevolent, evil, and full of discontent marked by a number of characteristics, such as self-centeredness, exploiting others, controlling behavior, disrespecting others, suppress innovation and creativity of employees, and inadequate emotional intelligence. The leaders with some characteristics, such as high self-centeredness, exploiting others, controlling behavior, and disrespecting others, tends to describe a low LMX relationships directly with subordinates compared with low self-centeredness, exploiting others, controlling behavior, and disrespecting others. While suppress innovation and creativity of employees aspect and inadequate emotional intelligence, tend not to give direct effect to the low quality of LMX.

Keywords: leader-member exchange, toxic leadership, leadership

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Authors: Hassan Gomar, Shahin Bagheri, Nader Keyvan, Mozhdeh Shirinzadeh

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Air-Cooled Condenser (ACC) platform structures are the most complicated and principal structures in power plants and other industrial parts which need to condense the low-pressure steam in the cycle. Providing large spans for this structure has great merit as there would be more space for other subordinate buildings and pertinent equipment. Moreover, applying methods to reduce the overall cost of construction while maintaining its strength against severe seismic loading is of high significance. Tabular spatial structures and composite frames have been widely used in recent years to satisfy the need for higher strength at a reasonable price. In this research program, three different structural systems have been regarded for ACC steel platform using Special Concentrate Braced Frames (SCBF), which is the most common system (first scheme), modular spatial frames (second scheme) and finally, a modified method applying Concrete Filled Steel Tabular (CFST) columns (third scheme). The finite element method using Sap2000 and Etabs software was conducted to investigate the behavior of the structures and make a precise comparison between the models. According to the results, the total weight of the steel structure in the second scheme decreases by 13% compared to the first scheme and applying CFST columns in the third scheme causes a 3% reduction in the total weight of the structure in comparison with the second scheme while all the lateral displacements and P-M interaction ratios are in the admissible limit.

Keywords: ACC, SCBF frames, spatial structures, CFST frames

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Authors: Siddhartha Paul, Debabrata Das

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Closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) management focuses on integrating forward and reverse flow of material as well as information to maximize value creation over the entire life-cycle of a product. Bullwhip effect in supply chain management refers to the phenomenon where a small variation in customers’ demand results in larger variation of orders at the upstream levels of supply chain. Since the quality and quantity of products returned to the collection centers (as a part of reverse logistics process) are uncertain, bullwhip effect is inevitable in CLSC. Therefore, in the present study, first, through an extensive literature survey, we identify all the important factors related to forward as well as reverse supply chain which causes bullwhip effect in CLSC. Second, we develop a system dynamics model to study the interrelationship among the factors and their effect on the performance of overall CLSC. Finally, the results of the simulation study suggest that demand forecasting, lead times, information sharing, inventory and work in progress adjustment rate, supply shortages, batch ordering, price variations, erratic human behavior, parameter correcting, delivery time delays, return rate of used products, manufacturing and remanufacturing capacity constraints are the important factors which have a significant influence on system’s performance, specifically on bullwhip effect in a CLSC.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, closed-loop supply chain, system dynamics, variance ratio

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Authors: Malihe Shahidan, Azin Madhi, Meisam Shahbaz

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In recent decades, the role of supply chains in sustaining businesses and establishing their superiority in the market has been under focus. The realization of the goals and strategies of a business enterprise is largely dependent on the cooperation of the chain, including suppliers, distributors, retailers, etc. Supply chains can potentially be disrupted by both internal and external factors. In this paper, resilience strategies have been identified and analyzed in three levels: sourcing, producing, and distributing by considering economic depression as a current risk factor for the machine-made rugs industry. In this study, semi-structured interviews for data gathering and thematic analysis for data analysis are applied. Supply chain data has been gathered from seven rug factories before and after the economic depression through semi-structured interviews. The identified strategies were derived from literature review and validated by collecting data from a group of eighteen industry and university experts, and the results were analyzed using statistical tests. Finally, the outsourcing of new products and products in the new market, the development and completion of the product portfolio, the flexibility in the composition and volume of products, the expansion of the market to price-sensitive, direct sales, and disintermediation have been determined as strategies affecting supply chain resilience of machine-made rugs' industry during an economic depression.

Keywords: distribution, economic depression, machine-made rug, outsourcing, production, sourcing, supply chain, supply chain resilience

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Authors: M. Koray Cetin, Mehmet Mert

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The purpose of the study is to examine impacts on tourism revenues of the exchange rate and country overall security level. There are numerous studies that examine the bidirectional relation between macroeconomic factors and tourism revenues and tourism demand. Most of the studies support the existence of impact of tourism revenues on growth rate but not vice versa. Few studies examine the impact of factors like real exchange rate or purchasing power parity on the tourism revenues. In this context, firstly impact of real exchange rate on tourism revenues examination is aimed. Because exchange rate is one of the main determinants of international tourism services price in guests currency unit. Another determinant of tourism demand for a country is country’s overall security level. This issue can be handled in the context of the relationship between tourism revenues and overall security including turmoil, terrorism, border problem, political violence. In this study, factors are handled for several countries which have tourism revenues on a certain level. With this structure, it is a panel data, and it is evaluated with panel data analysis techniques. Panel data have at least two dimensions, and one of them is time dimensions. The panel data analysis techniques are applied to data gathered from Worldbank data web page. In this study, it is expected to find impacts of real exchange rate and security factors on tourism revenues for the countries that have noteworthy tourism revenues.

Keywords: exchange rate, panel data analysis, security, tourism revenues

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Authors: Warunpun Kongsom, Chaiwat Kongsom

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The objective of this study was to investigate the awareness, knowledge and consumer behavior towards organic products in Thailand. For this study, a purposive sampling technique was used to identify a sample group of 2,575 consumers over the age of 20 years who intended or made purchases from 1) green shops; 2) supermarkets with branches; and, 3) green markets. A questionnaire was used for data collection across the country. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. The results showed that more than 92% of consumers were aware of organic agriculture, but had less knowledge about it. More than 60% of consumers knew that organic agriculture production and processing did not allow the use of chemicals. And about 40% of consumers were confused between the food safety logo and the certified organic logo, and whether GMO was allowed in organic agriculture practice or not. In addition, most consumers perceived that organic agricultural products, good agricultural practice (GAP) products, agricultural chemicals free products, and hydroponic vegetable products had the same standard. In the view of organic consumers, the organic Thailand label was the most seen and reliable among various organic labels. Less than 3% of consumers thought that the International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements (IFOAM) Global Organic Mark (GOM) was the most seen and reliable. For the behaviors of organic consumers, they purchased organic products mainly at the supermarket and green shop (55.4%), one to two times per month, and with a total expenditure of about 200 to 400 baht each time. The main reason for buying organic products was safety and free from agricultural chemicals. The considered factors in organic product selection were price (29.5%), convenience (22.4%), and a reliable certification system (21.3%). The demands for organic products were mainly rice, vegetables and fruits. Processed organic products were relatively small in quantity.

Keywords: consumer behavior, consumer knowledge, organic products, Thailand

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Authors: Young Yoon, Jinsoo Kim

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The adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) in all industry is growing under industry 4.0. Many oil companies also are increasingly adopting ICT to improve the efficiency of existing operations, take more accurate and quicker decision making and reduce entire cost by optimization. It is true that ICT is playing an important role in the process of unconventional oil and gas development and companies must take advantage of ICT to gain competitive advantage. In this study, real option approach has been applied to Unconventional gas R&D project to evaluate ICT of them. Many unconventional gas reserves such as shale gas and coal-bed methane(CBM) has developed due to technological improvement and high energy price. There are many uncertainties in unconventional development on the three stage(Exploration, Development, Production). The traditional quantitative benefits-cost method, such as net present value(NPV) is not sufficient for capturing ICT value. We attempted to evaluate the ICT valuation by applying the compound option model; the model is applied to real CBM project case, showing how it consider uncertainties. Variables are treated as uncertain and a Monte Carlo simulation is performed to consider variables effect. Acknowledgement—This work was supported by the Energy Efficiency & Resources Core Technology Program of the Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) granted financial resource from the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy, Republic of Korea (No. 20152510101880) and by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government (NRF-205S1A3A2046684).

Keywords: information and communication technologies, R&D, real option, unconventional gas

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Authors: Maxime Alex Junior Kuitche, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez, Jean-Chirstophe Maunand

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The evolution of aircraft is closely linked to the study and improvement of propulsion systems. Determining the propulsion performance is a real challenge in aircraft modeling and design. In addition to theoretical methodologies, experimental procedures are used to obtain a good estimation of the propulsion performances. For piston-propeller propulsion, the propeller needs several experimental tests which could be extremely demanding in terms of time and money. This paper presents a new procedure to estimate the performance of a propeller from a numerical approach using computational fluid dynamic analysis. The propeller was initially scanned, and then, its 3D model was represented using CATIA. A structured meshing and Shear Stress Transition k-ω turbulence model were applied to describe accurately the flow pattern around the propeller. Thus, the Partial Differential Equations were solved using ANSYS FLUENT software. The method was applied on the UAS-S45’s propeller designed and manufactured by Hydra Technologies in Mexico. An extensive investigation was performed for several flight conditions in terms of altitudes and airspeeds with the aim to determine thrust coefficients, power coefficients and efficiency of the propeller. The Computational Fluid Dynamics results were compared with experimental data acquired from wind tunnel tests performed at the LARCASE Price-Paidoussis wind tunnel. The results of this comparison have demonstrated that our approach was highly accurate.

Keywords: CFD analysis, propeller performance, unmanned aerial system propeller, UAS-S45

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Authors: Cristian Pauna

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With few steps away from the 2020, investments in financial markets is a common activity nowadays. In the electronic trading environment, the automated investment software has become a major part in the business intelligence system of any modern financial company. The investment decisions are assisted and/or made automatically by computers using mathematical algorithms today. The complexity of these algorithms requires computer assistance in the investment process. This paper will present several investment strategies that can be automated with algorithmic trading for Deutscher Aktienindex DAX30. It was found that, based on several price action mathematical models used for high-frequency trading some investment strategies can be optimized and improved for automated investments with good results. This paper will present the way to automate these investment decisions. Automated signals will be built using all of these strategies. Three major types of investment strategies were found in this study. The types are separated by the target length and by the exit strategy used. The exit decisions will be also automated and the paper will present the specificity for each investment type. A comparative study will be also included in this paper in order to reveal the differences between strategies. Based on these results, the profit and the capital exposure will be compared and analyzed in order to qualify the investment methodologies presented and to compare them with any other investment system. As conclusion, some major investment strategies will be revealed and compared in order to be considered for inclusion in any automated investment system.

Keywords: Algorithmic trading, automated investment systems, limit conditions, trading principles, trading strategies

Procedia PDF Downloads 192