Search results for: commodity price uncertainties

Authors: Anthony Oppong Kyekyeku, Sussana Antwi-Boasiako, Emmanuel De-Graft Johnson Owusu Ansah

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In this observational study, the performance of a known conventional storage system was tested and evaluated for fitness for its intended purpose. The system has a scope extended for the storage of dry cocoa beans. System sensitivity, reproducibility and uncertainties are not known in details. This study discusses the system performance in the context of existing literature on factors that influence the quality of cocoa beans during storage. Controlled conditions were defined precisely for the system to give reliable base line within specific established procedures. Minitab® 17 and R statistical software (R-3.3.1) were used for the statistical analyses. The approach to the storage system testing was to observe and compare through laboratory test methods the quality of the cocoa beans samples before and after storage. The samples were kept in Kilner jars and the temperature of the storage environment controlled and monitored over a period of 408 days. Standard test methods use in international trade of cocoa such as the cut test analysis, moisture determination with Aqua boy KAM III model and bean count determination were used for quality assessment. The data analysis assumed the entire population as a sample in order to establish a reliable baseline to the data collected. The study concluded a statistically significant mean value at 95% Confidence Interval (CI) for the performance data analysed before and after storage for all variables observed. Correlational graphs showed a strong positive correlation for all variables investigated with the exception of All Other Defect (AOD). The weak relationship between the before and after data for AOD had an explained variability of 51.8% with the unexplained variability attributable to the uncontrolled condition of hidden infestation before storage. The current study concluded with a high-performance criterion for the storage system.

Keywords: benchmarking performance data, cocoa beans, hidden infestation, storage system validation

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Authors: Z. B. Ibrahim, N. Ismail, K. I. Othman

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Fuzzy Differential Equations (FDEs) play an important role in modelling many real life phenomena. The FDEs are used to model the behaviour of the problems that are subjected to uncertainty, vague or imprecise information that constantly arise in mathematical models in various branches of science and engineering. These uncertainties have to be taken into account in order to obtain a more realistic model and many of these models are often difficult and sometimes impossible to obtain the analytic solutions. Thus, many authors have attempted to extend or modified the existing numerical methods developed for solving Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) into fuzzy version in order to suit for solving the FDEs. Therefore, in this paper, we proposed the development of a fuzzy version of three-point block method based on Block Backward Differentiation Formulas (FBBDF) for the numerical solution of first order FDEs. The three-point block FBBDF method are implemented in uniform step size produces three new approximations simultaneously at each integration step using the same back values. Newton iteration of the FBBDF is formulated and the implementation is based on the predictor and corrector formulas in the PECE mode. For greater efficiency of the block method, the coefficients of the FBBDF are stored at the start of the program. The proposed FBBDF is validated through numerical results on some standard problems found in the literature and comparisons are made with the existing fuzzy version of the Modified Simpson and Euler methods in terms of the accuracy of the approximated solutions. The numerical results show that the FBBDF method performs better in terms of accuracy when compared to the Euler method when solving the FDEs.

Keywords: block, backward differentiation formulas, first order, fuzzy differential equations

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Authors: Ana L. Martins, Luis Orfão

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Healthcare systems have been subject to various research efforts aiming at process improvement under a lean approach. Another perspective, agility, has also been used, though in a lower scale, in order to analyse the ability of different hospital services to adapt to demand uncertainties. Both perspectives have a common denominator, the improvement of effectiveness and efficiency of the services in a healthcare setting context. Mixing the two approached allows, on one hand, to streamline the processes, and on the other hand the required flexibility to deal with demand uncertainty in terms of both volume and variety. The present research aims to analyse the impacts of the combination of both perspectives in the effectiveness and efficiency of an hospital service. The adopted methodology is based on a case study approach applied to the process of the ambulatory surgery service of Hospital de Lamego. Data was collected from direct observations, formal interviews and informal conversations. The analyzed process was selected according to three criteria: relevance of the process to the hospital, presence of human resources, and presence of waste. The customer of the process was identified as well as his perception of value. The process was mapped using flow chart, on a process modeling perspective, as well as through the use of Value Stream Mapping (VSM) and Process Activity Mapping. The Spaghetti Diagram was also used to assess flow intensity. The use of the lean tools enabled the identification of three main types of waste: movement, resource inefficiencies and process inefficiencies. From the use of the lean tools improvement suggestions were produced. The results point out that leagility cannot be applied to the process, but the application of lean and agility in specific areas of the process would bring benefits in both efficiency and effectiveness, and contribute to value creation if improvements are introduced in hospital’s human resources and facilities management.

Keywords: case study, healthcare systems, leagility, lean management

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Authors: Hamed K. Esfahani, Bithin Datta

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Transport of reactive chemical contaminant species in groundwater aquifers is a complex and highly non-linear physical and geochemical process especially for real life scenarios. Simulating this transport process involves solving complex nonlinear equations and generally requires huge computational time for a given aquifer study area. Development of optimal remediation strategies in aquifers may require repeated solution of such complex numerical simulation models. To overcome this computational limitation and improve the computational feasibility of large number of repeated simulations, Genetic Programming based trained surrogate models are developed to approximately simulate such complex transport processes. Transport process of acid mine drainage, a hazardous pollutant is first simulated using a numerical simulated model: HYDROGEOCHEM 5.0 for a contaminated aquifer in a historic mine site. Simulation model solution results for an illustrative contaminated aquifer site is then approximated by training and testing a Genetic Programming (GP) based surrogate model. Performance evaluation of the ensemble GP models as surrogate models for the reactive species transport in groundwater demonstrates the feasibility of its use and the associated computational advantages. The results show the efficiency and feasibility of using ensemble GP surrogate models as approximate simulators of complex hydrogeologic and geochemical processes in a contaminated groundwater aquifer incorporating uncertainties in historic mine site.

Keywords: geochemical transport simulation, acid mine drainage, surrogate models, ensemble genetic programming, contaminated aquifers, mine sites

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Authors: Arvind Dhingra, Tejinder Singh Saggu

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As the energy demands rise and the pollution levels grow, it becomes imperative for us to save energy in all the fields in which it is used. The industrial sector is the major commercial energy consuming sector in India, where electrical energy is the most common and widely used type of energy. As the demand and price of energy are increasing day by day, therefore, the subject of energy conservation is a concern for most energy users particularly industry. Judicious use of energy becomes imperative for third world developing country being presence of energy crisis. This paper provides some measure for energy saving that can be commonly recommended for a rolling unit of steel industry. A case of hot rolling unit in JSL Stainless Ltd., Hisar for energy conservation is given. Overall improvement in energy consumption in light of the stated recommendation is illustrated along with the proposed utilization of the techniques and their applications. Energy conservation in conventional motor with replacement or use of star delta star converter, reduction in cable losses, replacement of filament of LED lamps, replacement of conventional transformer with cast resin dry type transformer and provision of energy management system for energy conservation and per unit production cost reduction are elaborated in this paper.

Keywords: energy audit, energy conservation, energy efficient motors

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Authors: Nashaat A. Deiab, Aida Radwan, Mohamed S. Yahiya, Mohamed Elnagdy, Rasha Moustafa

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This study is to evaluate the dosimetric performance of our institution's 3D treatment planning system for wedged and off-axis 6MV photon beams, guided by the recommended QA tests documented in the AAPM TG53; NCS report 15 test packages, IAEA TRS 430 and ESTRO booklet no.7. The study was performed for Elekta Precise linear accelerator designed for clinical range of 4, 6 and 15 MV photon beams with asymmetric jaws and fully integrated multileaf collimator that enables high conformance to target with sharp field edges. Ten tests were applied on solid water equivalent phantom along with 2D array dose detection system. The calculated doses using 3D treatment planning system PrecisePLAN were compared with measured doses to make sure that the dose calculations are accurate for simple situations such as square and elongated fields, different SSD, beam modifiers e.g. wedges, blocks, MLC-shaped fields and asymmetric collimator settings. The QA results showed dosimetric accuracy of the TPS within the specified tolerance limits. Except for large elongated wedged field, the central axis and outside central axis have errors of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, and off- planned and off-axis elongated fields the region outside the central axis of the beam errors are 0.2% and 1.1%, respectively. The dosimetric investigated results yielded differences within the accepted tolerance level as recommended. Differences between dose values predicted by the TPS and measured values at the same point are the result from limitations of the dose calculation, uncertainties in the measurement procedure, or fluctuations in the output of the accelerator.

Keywords: quality assurance, dose calculation, wedged fields, off-axis fields, 3D treatment planning system, photon beam

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Authors: Fuyang Peng, Donghong Li

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The aim of information systems integration is to make all the data sources, applications and business flows integrated into the new environment so that unwanted redundancies are reduced and bottlenecks and mismatches are eliminated. Two issues have to be dealt with to meet such requirements: the software architecture that supports resource integration, and the adaptor development tool that help integration and migration of legacy applications. In this paper, a service-enabled dependable integration environment (SDIE), is presented, which has two key components, i.e., a dependable service integration platform and a legacy application integration tool. For the dependable platform for service integration, the service integration bus, the service management framework, the dependable engine for service composition, and the service registry and discovery components are described. For the legacy application integration tool, its basic organization, functionalities and dependable measures taken are presented. Due to its service-oriented integration model, the light-weight extensible container, the service component combination-oriented p-lattice structure, and other features, SDIE has advantages in openness, flexibility, performance-price ratio and feature support over commercial products, is better than most of the open source integration software in functionality, performance and dependability support.

Keywords: application integration, dependability, legacy, SOA

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Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

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Authors: Trisiladi Supriyanto

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This study aims to establish a concept of rate of profit on Islamic banking that can create economic justice and stability in the Islamic Financial Market (Banking and Capital Markets). A rate of profit that creates economic justice and stability can be achieved through its role in maintaining the stability of the financial system in which there is an equitable distribution of income and wealth. To determine the role of the rate of profit as the basis of the profit sharing system implemented in the Islamic financial system, we can see the connection of rate of profit in creating financial stability, especially in the asset-liability management of financial institutions that generate a stable net margin or the rate of profit that is not affected by the ups and downs of the market risk factors, including indirect effect on interest rates. Furthermore, Islamic financial stability can be seen from the role of the rate of profit on the stability of the Islamic financial assets value that are measured from the Islamic financial asset price volatility in the Islamic Bond Market in the Capital Market.

Keywords: economic justice, equitable distribution of income, equitable distribution of wealth, rate of profit, stability in the financial system

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Authors: Xavier Lorang, Ahmadali Tahmasebimoradi, Chetra Mang, Sylvain Girard

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The additive manufacturing processes (e.g. selective laser melting) allow us to produce lattice structures which have less weight, higher impact absorption capacity, and better thermal exchange property compared to the classical structures. Unfortunately, geometric imperfections (defects) in the lattice structures are by-products results of the manufacturing process. These imperfections decrease the lifetime and the strength of the lattice structures and alternate their mechanical responses. The objective of the paper is to present a simulation strategy which allows us to take into account the effect of the geometric imperfections on the mechanical response of the lattice structure. In the first part, an identification method of geometric imperfection parameters of the lattice structure based on point clouds is presented. These point clouds are based on tomography measurements. The point clouds are fed into the platform LATANA (LATtice ANAlysis) developed by IRT-SystemX to characterize the geometric imperfections. This is done by projecting the point clouds of each microbeam along the beam axis onto a 2D surface. Then, by fitting an ellipse to the 2D projections of the points, the geometric imperfections are characterized by introducing three parameters of an ellipse; semi-major/minor axes and angle of rotation. With regard to the calculated parameters of the microbeam geometric imperfections, a statistical analysis is carried out to determine a probability density law based on a statistical hypothesis. The microbeam samples are randomly drawn from the density law and are used to generate lattice structures. In the second part, a finite element model for the lattice structure with the simplified geometric imperfections (ellipse parameters) is presented. This numerical model is used to simulate the generated lattice structures. The propagation of the uncertainties of geometric imperfections is shown through the distribution of the computed mechanical responses of the lattice structures.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, finite element model, geometric imperfections, lattice structures, propagation of uncertainty

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Authors: Syed Rashid Hussain Shah, Sumera Syed, Nida Mushtaq

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Social media is not only acting as a medium of communication; rather it has provided a platform where customers can actually live with the brands they so dearly envy and interact with others with same interest. Organizations are making social media marketing efforts (SMME) to convert this opportunity into a meaningful experience. It may be resembled or considered as an act of branding where the notion is not only to understand the consumer behavior but also developing a strong link with them. Ultimately the quest is to influence and bend it into a mutual benefit of the stakeholders. This study investigates SMME of brands with the help of five dimensions (i.e., entertainment, interaction, trendiness, customization and word of mouth). The study has found that there is no significant impact of SMME as a construct on brand equity and consumer behavior. However, few of the dimensions (i.e. customization and word of mouth), have been found to have influence on brand equity (brand association, brand image) and consumer response (brand preferences).

Keywords: social media marketing efforts (SMME), brand equity, preference, loyalty price premium, luxury brands, international

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Authors: Georgios A. Fragkiadakis, Antonia Psaroudaki, Theodora Mouratidou, Eirini Sfakianaki

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Research: Within the project "Actions for the optimal utilization of the potential of carob in the Region of Crete" which is financed-supervised by the Region, with collaboration of Crete University and Hellenic Mediterranean University, a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) survey was carried out, to evaluate the prospects of carob in human nutrition, in Crete. Results and conclusions: 1). Strengths: There exists a local production of carob for human consumption, based on international reports, and local-product reports. The data on products in the market (over 100 brands of carob food), indicates a sufficiency of carob materials offered in Crete. The variety of carob food products retailed in Crete indicates a strong demand-production-consumption trend. There is a stable number (core) of businesses that invest significantly (Creta carob, Cretan mills, etc.). The great majority of the relevant food stores (bakery, confectionary etc.) do offer carob products. The presence of carob products produced in Crete is strong on the internet (over 20 main professionally designed websites). The promotion of the carob food-products is based on their variety and on a few historical elements connected with the Cretan diet. 2). Weaknesses: The international prices for carob seed affect the sector; the seed had an international price of €20 per kg in 2021-22 and fell to €8 in 2022, causing losses to carob traders. The local producers do not sort the carobs they deliver for processing, causing 30-40% losses of the product in the industry. The occasional high price triggers the collection of degraded raw material; large losses may emerge due to the action of insects. There are many carob trees whose fruits are not collected, e.g. in Apokoronas, Chania. The nutritional and commercial value of the wild carob fruits is very low. Carob trees-production is recorded by Greek statistical services as "other cultures" in combination with prickly pear i.e., creating difficulties in retrieving data. The percentage of carob used for human nutrition, in contrast to animal feeding, is not known. The exact imports of carob are not closely monitored. We have no data on the recycling of carob by-products in Crete. 3). Opportunities: The development of a culture of respect for carob trade may improve professional relations in the sector. Monitoring carob market and connecting production with retailing-industry needs may allow better market-stability. Raw material evaluation procedures may be implemented to maintain carob value-chain. The state agricultural services may be further involved in carob-health protection. The education of farmers on carob cultivation/management, can improve the quality of the product. The selection of local productive varieties, may improve the sustainability of the culture. Connecting the consumption of carob with health-food products, may create added value in the sector. The presence and extent of wild carob threes in Crete, represents, potentially, a target for grafting. 4). Threats: The annual fluctuation of carob yield challenges the programming of local food industry activities. Carob is a forest species also - there is danger of wrong classification of crops as forest areas, where land ownership is not clear.

Keywords: human nutrition, carob food, SWOT analysis, crete, greece

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Authors: Dwi Purnomo, Anas Bunyamin, Fajar Susilo, Akbar Anugrah

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Beekeeping became a rural economic buffer, especially for people who lived by forest side to diversify their food or sell the honey and bee colony. Aside from the high price of honey and it’s derivative products, there is another revenue stream along beekeeping value chain that could be optimized by the people. There are five of nine honey bee species in the world, exist in Indonesia, such as Apis Cerana, Apis Dorsata, Apis Andreniformis, Apis Koschevnikovi, and Apis Nigrocincta. Indonesian farmer generally developed Apis Cerana and two other honey bees species, like Apis Mellifera and Trigona. This study tried to identify, how beekeeping business practices, challenges and opportunities in four beekeeping business in West Java through the value chain along the business. Data carried out by literature review, interview and focus group discussion with key actors in beekeeping business. There are six revenue stream in beekeeping business in West Java, such as brood hunter, beehives maker, agroforestry, agro-tourism, honey and derivatives products and bee acupuncture. This assesses conclude any criteria that should grasp for developing and sustaining beekeeping business in West Java.

Keywords: beekeeping business, business developing, value chain, West Java

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Authors: Sidharth Talan, Devendra Kumar Yadav, Yuvraj Singh Rajput, Subhajit Bhattacharjee

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Mining industry is known for its appetite to spend sizeable capital on mine equipment. However, in the current scenario, the mining industry is challenged by daunting factors of non-uniform geological conditions, uneven ore grade, uncontrollable and volatile mineral commodity prices and the ever increasing quest to optimize the capital and operational costs. Thus, the role of equipment reliability and maintenance planning inherits a significant role in augmenting the equipment availability for the operation and in turn boosting the mine productivity. This paper presents the Risk Based Maintenance (RBM) planning conducted on mine loading equipment namely Load Haul Dumpers (LHDs) at Vedanta Resources Ltd subsidiary Hindustan Zinc Limited operated Sindesar Khurd Mines, an underground zinc and lead mine situated in Dariba, Rajasthan, India. The mining equipment at the location is maintained by the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) namely Sandvik and Atlas Copco, who carry out the maintenance and inspection operations for the equipment. Based on the downtime data extracted for the equipment fleet over the period of 6 months spanning from 1^st January 2017 until 30^th June 2017, it was revealed that significant contribution of three downtime issues related to namely Engine, Hydraulics, and Transmission to be common among all the loading equipment fleet and substantiated by Pareto Analysis. Further scrutiny through Bubble Matrix Analysis of the given factors revealed the major influence of selective factors namely Overheating, No Load Taken (NTL) issues, Gear Changing issues and Hose Puncture and leakage issues. Utilizing the equipment wise analysis of all the downtime factors obtained, spares consumed, and the alarm logs extracted from the machines, technical design changes in the equipment and pre shift critical alarms checklist were proposed for the equipment maintenance. The given analysis is beneficial to allow OEMs or mine management to focus on the critical issues hampering the reliability of mine equipment and design necessary maintenance strategies to mitigate them.

Keywords: bubble matrix analysis, LHDs, OEMs, Pareto chart analysis, spares consumption matrix, critical alarms checklist

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Authors: Meesun Sun, Yongmin Kim

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Estimating maintenance cost is crucial in defense management because it affects military budgets and availability of equipment. When it comes to estimating maintenance cost of the deployed equipment, time series forecasting can be applied with the actual historical cost data. It is more difficult issue to estimate maintenance cost of new equipment for which the actual costs are not provided. In this underlying context, this study proposes an analytical method for maintenance cost estimating relationships (CERs) development of helicopters using linear programming. The CERs can be applied to a new helicopter because they use non-cost independent variables such as the number of engines, the empty weight and so on. In the Republic of Korea, the maintenance cost of new equipment has been usually estimated by reflecting maintenance cost to unit price ratio of the legacy equipment. This study confirms that the CERs perform well for the 10 types of airmobile helicopters in terms of mean absolute percentage error by applying leave-one-out cross-validation. The suggested method is very useful to estimate the maintenance cost of new equipment and can help in the affordability assessment of acquisition program portfolios for total life cycle systems management.

Keywords: affordability analysis, cost estimating relationship, helicopter, linear programming, maintenance cost

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Authors: Karl Gerrard Tiu See

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Military bases are an indelible mark of prolonged US defense relationships in the Pacific. Bases like the Subic Naval Base in Olongapo City have irreversible consequences for their host communities, not all of which are positive. One consequence the Subic Naval Base had for Olongapo City was the rise of vibrant sex industry. While the Philippine Senate voted to remove US bases like Subic in 1991, the question remains as to why did prostitution not end after the bases pull-out? To answer this question, the study used an institutionalist lens coupled with focus group discussions from the sex industry. It found that prostitution persisted due to two main reasons. The first was that like Olongapo City; the sex industry successfully shifted its reliance from the military to foreign tourism. The second was that agreements such as the 1996 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) ensured that the sex industry continued to receive US military clientele. With the contextual factors as the backdrop, this study used the Theory of Institutional Change to study institutions pivotal in altering Olongapo City and its sex industry after Subic Naval Base. These include local government, civil society actors such as NGOs, and the city’s economic base. The study found that policy such as the VFA allowed the bases period status quo to revive (Symbionts). This led to renewed exploitation from the military presence coupled with foreign tourism (Opportunists). The local government, however, shifted focus away from base reliance which allowed a reinvigorated civil society to effect a gradual change (Subversives). Furthermore, uncertainties like rising HIV incidence, abandoned children born from US soldiers, and the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) remain to change the sex industry’s future, for better or worse.

Keywords: Philippine-USA defence relations, overseas USA basing, 1991 Philippine-USA bases pull-out, Olongapo city, Subic naval base, institutional change

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Authors: Watchareeporn Chaimongkol

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In this paper, we compare the statistical measures accuracy of composite forecasting model to estimate automobile customer demand in Thailand. A modified simple exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model is built to estimate customer demand of passenger cars, instead of using information of historical sales data. Our model takes into account special characteristic of the Thai automobile market such as sales promotion, advertising and publicity, petrol price, and interest rate for loan. We evaluate our forecasting model by comparing forecasts with actual data using six accuracy measurements, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), geometric mean absolute error (GMAE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), median relative absolute error (MdRAE), and geometric mean relative absolute error (GMRAE).

Keywords: composite forecasting, simple exponential smoothing model, autoregressive integrate moving average model selection, accuracy measurements

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Authors: Xinyi Xu

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This study conducts a detailed examination of Asian stock markets over the period from 2008 to 2023, with a focus on the dynamics of cointegration and their relevance for long-term investment strategies. Specifically, we assess the co-movement and potential for pairs trading—a strategy where investors take opposing positions on two stocks, indices, or financial instruments that historically move together. For example, we explore the relationship between the Nikkei 225 (N225), Japan’s benchmark stock index, and the Straits Times Index (STI) of Singapore, as well as the relationship between the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KS11) and the STI. The methodology includes tests for normality, stationarity, cointegration, and the application of Vector Error Correction Modeling (VECM). Our findings reveal significant long-term relationships between these pairs, indicating opportunities for pairs trading strategies. Furthermore, the research underscores the challenges posed by model instability and the influence of major global incidents, which are identified as structural breaks. These findings pave the way for further exploration into the intricacies of financial market dynamics.

Keywords: normality tests, stationarity, cointegration, VECM, pairs trading

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Authors: Deniz Ünal Özpalamutcu, Burcu Altman

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Actuaria uses mathematics, statistic and financial information when analyzing the financial impacts of uncertainties, risks, insurance and pension related issues. In other words, it deals with the likelihood of potential risks, their financial impacts and especially the financial measures. Handling these measures require some long-term payment and investments. So, it is obvious it is inevitable to plan the periodic payments with equal time intervals considering also the changing value of money over time. These series of payment made specific intervals of time is called annuity or rant. In literature, rants are classified based on start and end dates, start times, payments times, payments amount or frequency. Classification of rants based on payment amounts changes based on the constant, descending or ascending payment methods. The literature about handling the annuity is very limited. Yet in a daily life, especially in today’s world where the economic issues gained a prominence, it is very crucial to use the variable annuity method in line with the demands of the customers. In this study, the types of annuities with flexible payment are discussed. In other words, we focus on calculating payment amount of a period by adding a certain percentage of previous period payment was studied. While studying this problem, formulas were created considering both start and end period payments for cash value and accumulated. Also increase of each period payment by r interest rate each period payments calculated with previous periods increases. And the problem of annuities (rants) of which each period payment increased with previous periods’ increase by r interest rate has been analyzed. Cash value and accumulated value calculation of this problem were studied separately based on the period start/end and their relations were expressed by formulas.

Keywords: actuaria, annuity, flexible payment, rant

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Authors: Dipak Subedi, Anil Giri, Christine Whitt, Tia McDonald

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This study aims to understand the impact of the pandemic on the overall economic well-being of the agricultural sector of the United States. The two key metrics used to examine the economic well-being are the bankruptcy rate of the U.S. farm operations and the operating profit margin. One of the primary reasons for farm operations (in the U.S.) to file for bankruptcy is continuous negative profit or a significant decrease in profit. The pandemic caused significant supply and demand shocks in the domestic market. Furthermore, the ongoing trade disruptions, especially with China, also impacted the prices of agricultural commodities. The significantly reduced demand for ethanol and closure of meat processing plants affected both livestock and crop producers. This study uses data from courts to examine the bankruptcy rate over time of U.S. farm operations. Preliminary results suggest there wasn’t an increase in farm operations filing for bankruptcy in 2020. This was most likely because of record high Government payments to producers in 2020. The Federal Government made direct payments of more than $45 billion in 2020. One commonly used economic metric to measure farm profitability is the operating profit margin (OPM). Operating profit margin measures profitability as a share of the total value of production and government payments. The Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture defines a farm operation to be in a) a high-risk zone if the OPM is less than 10 percent and b) a low-risk zone if the OPM is higher than 25 percent. For this study, OPM was calculated for small, medium, and large-scale farm operations using the data from the Agriculture Resource Management Survey (OPM). Results show that except for small family farms, the share of farms in high-risk zone decreased in 2020 compared to the most recent non-pandemic year, 2019. This was most likely due to higher commodity prices at the end of 2020 and record-high government payments. Further investigation suggests a lower share of smaller farm operations receiving lower average government payments resulting in a large share (over 70 percent) being in the critical zone. This study should be of interest to multiple stakeholders, including policymakers across the globe, as it shows the resilience of the U.S. agricultural system as well as (some) impact of government payments.

Keywords: U.S. farm sector, COVID-19, operating profit margin, farm bankruptcy, ag finance, government payments to the farm sector

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Authors: Zhanara B. Suleimenova, Zhazira K. Saduyeva

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Filamentous fungi are major producers of enzymes that have important applications in the food and beverage industries. The overall objective of this research is a strain improvement technology for efficient industrial enzymes production. The new way of filamentous fungi cultivation method has been developed. Such technology prolong producers’ cultivation period up to 60 days and create the opportunity to obtain enzymes repeatedly in every 2-3 days of fungal cultivation. This method is based on immobilizing enzymes producers with solid support in submerged conditions of growth. Immobilizing has a range of advantages: Decreasing the price of the final product, absence of foreign substances, controlled process of enzyme-genesis, ability of various enzymes simultaneous production, etc. Design of proposed technology gives the opportunity to increase the activity of immobilized cells culture filtrate comparing to free cells, growing in periodic culture conditions. Thus, proposed research focuses on new, more versatile, microorganisms capable of squeezing more end-products as well as proposed cultivation technology led to increased enzymatic productivity by several times.

Keywords: filamentous fungi, immobilization, industrial enzymes production, strain improvement

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Authors: Ando Leppiman, Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Ott Koppel

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The growing demand for gas has rekindled a debate on gas security of supply due to supply interruptions, increasing gas prices, transportation and distribution bottlenecks and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances. Security of supply is defined mostly as an infrastructure package to satisfy N-1 criteria. In case of Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Lithuania all the gas infrastructure is built to supply natural gas only from one single supplier, Russia. In 2012, almost 100% of natural gas to the Eastern Baltic Region was supplied by Gazprom. under such circumstances infrastructure N-1 criteria does not guarantee security of supply. In the Eastern Baltic Region, the assessment of risk of gas supply disruption has been worked out by applying the method of risk scenarios. There are various risks to be tackled in Eastern Baltic States in terms of improving security of supply, such as single supplier risk, physical infrastructure risk, regulatory gap, fair price, and competition. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the energy security of the Eastern Baltic Region within the framework of the European Union’s policies and to make recommendations on how to better guarantee the energy security of the region.

Keywords: security of supply, supply routes for natural gas, energy balance, diversified supply options, common regulative package

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Authors: Mudawamah Mudawamah, Muhammad Z. Fadli, Gatot Ciptadi, Aulanni’am

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Canary breeders have spread throughout Indonesian regions for the low-middle society and become an income source for them. The interesting phenomenon of the canary market is the feather colours become one of determining factor for the price. The advantages of this research were contributed to the molecular database as a base of selection and mating for the Indonesia canary breeder. The research method was experiment with the genome obtained from canary blood isolation. The genome did the PCR amplification with PMEL marker followed by sequencing. Canaries were used 24 heads of light and dark colour feathers. Research data analyses used BioEdit and Network 4.6.0.0 software. The results showed that all samples were amplification with PMEL gene with 500 bp fragment length. In base sequence of 40 was found Cytosine(C) in the light colour canaries, while the dark colour canaries was obtained Thymine (T) in same base sequence. Sequence results had 286-415 bp fragment and 10 haplotypes. The conclusions were the PMEL gene (gene of white pigment) was likely to be used PMEL gene to detect molecular genetic variation of dark and light colour feather.

Keywords: canary, haplotype, PMEL, sequence

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: Ebrahim Behrouzian Nejad, Rezvan Alipoor Sabzevari

Abstract:

Cloud computing systems are large-scale distributed systems, so that they focus more on large scale resource sharing, cooperation of several organizations and their use in new applications. One of the main challenges in this realm is resource allocation. There are many different ways to resource allocation in cloud computing. One of the common methods to resource allocation are economic methods. Among these methods, the auction-based method has greater prominence compared with Fixed-Price method. The double combinatorial auction is one of the proper ways of resource allocation in cloud computing. This method includes two phases: winner determination and resource allocation. In this paper a new method has been presented to determine winner in double combinatorial auction-based resource allocation using Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA). The experimental results show that in our new proposed the number of winner users is higher than genetic algorithm. On other hand, in proposed algorithm, the number of winner providers is higher in genetic algorithm.

Keywords: cloud computing, resource allocation, double auction, winner determination

Procedia PDF Downloads 360

Authors: Sirapop Nuannimnoi, Hojjat Baghban, Ching-Yao Huang

Abstract:

Over the past decade, with the fast development of blockchain technology since the birth of Bitcoin, there has been a massive increase in the usage of Cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are not seen as an investment opportunity due to the market’s erratic behavior and high price volatility. With the recent success of deep reinforcement learning (DRL), portfolio management can be modeled and automated. In this paper, we propose a novel DRL-based multi-agent system to automatically make proper trading decisions on multiple cryptocurrencies and gain profits in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. We also extend this multi-agent system with horizontal federated transfer learning for better adapting to the inclusion of new cryptocurrencies in our portfolio; therefore, we can, through the concept of diversification, maximize our profits and minimize the trading risks. Experimental results through multiple simulation scenarios reveal that this proposed algorithmic trading system can offer three promising key advantages over other systems, including maximized profits, minimized risks, and adaptability.

Keywords: cryptocurrency portfolio management, algorithmic trading, federated learning, multi-agent reinforcement learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Guilhermina Torrao

Abstract:

An extensive number of studies have been conducted to determine the factors which influence crash injury risk (CIR); however, uncertainties inherent to selected variables have been neglected. A review of existing literature is required to not only obtain an overview of the variables and measures but also ascertain the implications when comparing studies without a systematic view of variable taxonomy. Therefore, the aim of this literature review is to examine and report on peer-reviewed studies in the field of crash analysis and to understand the implications of broad variations in variable selection in CIR analysis. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the variance in variable selection and classification when modeling injury risk involving occupants of light vehicles by presenting an analytical review of the literature. Based on data collected from 64 journal publications reported over the past 21 years, the analytical review discusses the variables selected by each study across an organized list of predictors for CIR analysis and provides a better understanding of the contribution of accident and vehicle factors to injuries acquired by occupants of light vehicles. A cross-comparison analysis demonstrates that almost half the studies (48%) did not consider vehicle design specifications (e.g., vehicle weight), whereas, for those that did, the vehicle age/model year was the most selected explanatory variable used by 41% of the literature studies. For those studies that included speed risk factor in their analyses, the majority (64%) used the legal speed limit data as a ‘proxy’ of vehicle speed at the moment of a crash, imposing limitations for CIR analysis and modeling. Despite the proven efficiency of airbags in minimizing injury impact following a crash, only 22% of studies included airbag deployment data. A major contribution of this study is to highlight the uncertainty linked to explanatory variable selection and identify opportunities for improvements when performing future studies in the field of road injuries.

Keywords: crash, exploratory, injury, risk, variables, vehicle

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Luleka Dlamini, Olivier Crespo, Jos van Dam

Abstract:

Accurately estimating crop growth and yield is pivotal for timely sustainable agricultural management and ensuring food security. Crop models and remote sensing can complement each other and form a robust analysis tool to improve crop growth and yield estimations when combined. This study thus aims to systematically evaluate how research that exclusively focuses on assimilating RS data into crop models varies among countries, crops, data assimilation methods, and farming conditions. A strict search string was applied in the Scopus and Web of Science databases, and 497 potential publications were obtained. After screening for relevance with predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria, 123 publications were considered in the final review. Results indicate that over 81% of the studies were conducted in countries associated with high socio-economic and technological advancement, mainly China, the United States of America, France, Germany, and Italy. Many of these studies integrated MODIS or Landsat data into WOFOST to improve crop growth and yield estimation of staple crops at the field and regional scales. Most studies use recalibration or updating methods alongside various algorithms to assimilate remotely sensed leaf area index into crop models. However, these methods cannot account for the uncertainties in remote sensing observations and the crop model itself. l. Over 85% of the studies were based on commercial and irrigated farming systems. Despite a great global interest in data assimilation into crop models, limited research has been conducted in resource- and data-limited regions like Africa. We foresee a great potential for such application in those conditions. Hence facilitating and expanding the use of such an approach, from which developing farming communities could benefit.

Keywords: crop models, remote sensing, data assimilation, crop yield estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Luleka Dlamini, Olivier Crespo, Jos van Dam

Abstract:

Accurately estimating crop growth and yield is pivotal for timely sustainable agricultural management and ensuring food security. Crop models and remote sensing can complement each other and form a robust analysis tool to improve crop growth and yield estimations when combined. This study thus aims to systematically evaluate how research that exclusively focuses on assimilating RS data into crop models varies among countries, crops, data assimilation methods, and farming conditions. A strict search string was applied in the Scopus and Web of Science databases, and 497 potential publications were obtained. After screening for relevance with predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria, 123 publications were considered in the final review. Results indicate that over 81% of the studies were conducted in countries associated with high socio-economic and technological advancement, mainly China, the United States of America, France, Germany, and Italy. Many of these studies integrated MODIS or Landsat data into WOFOST to improve crop growth and yield estimation of staple crops at the field and regional scales. Most studies use recalibration or updating methods alongside various algorithms to assimilate remotely sensed leaf area index into crop models. However, these methods cannot account for the uncertainties in remote sensing observations and the crop model itself. l. Over 85% of the studies were based on commercial and irrigated farming systems. Despite a great global interest in data assimilation into crop models, limited research has been conducted in resource- and data-limited regions like Africa. We foresee a great potential for such application in those conditions. Hence facilitating and expanding the use of such an approach, from which developing farming communities could benefit.

Keywords: crop models, remote sensing, data assimilation, crop yield estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Lea Lenhardt, Ivana Zeković, Tatjana Dramićanin, Miroslav D. Dramićanin

Abstract:

Rapid and sensitive analytical technologies for food analysis are needed to respond to the growing public interest in food quality and safety. In this context, fluorescence spectroscopy offers several inherent advantages for the characterization of food products: high sensitivity, low price, objective, relatively fast and non-destructive. The objective of this work was to investigate the potential of fluorescence spectroscopy coupled with multi-way technique for characterization of cereal flours. Fluorescence landscape also known as excitation-emission matrix (EEM) spectroscopy utilizes multiple-color illumination, with the full fluorescence spectrum recorded for each excitation wavelength. EEM was measured on various types of cereal flours (wheat, oat, barley, rye, corn, buckwheat and rice). Obtained spectra were analyzed using PARAllel FACtor analysis (PARAFAC) in order to decompose the spectra and identify underlying fluorescent components. Results of the analysis indicated the presence of four fluorophores in cereal flours. It has been observed that relative concentration of fluorophores varies between different groups of flours. Based on these findings we can conclude that application of PARAFAC analysis on fluorescence data is a good foundation for further qualitative analysis of cereal flours.

Keywords: cereals, fluors, fluorescence, PARAFAC

Procedia PDF Downloads 666

Authors: B. S. So, Y. H. Yoon, J. O. Jung, K. S. Bae

Abstract:

Metal Injection Molding (MIM) is a technology that combines powder metallurgy and injection molding. Particularly, it is widely applied to the manufacture of precision mobile parts and automobile turbocharger parts because compact precision parts with complicated three-dimensional shapes that are difficult to machining are formed into a large number of finished products. The swing valve is a valve that adjusts the boost pressure of the turbocharger. Since the head portion is exposed to the harsh temperature condition of about 900 degrees in the gasoline GDI engine, it is necessary to use Inconel material with excellent heat resistance and abrasion resistance, resulting in high manufacturing cost. In this study, we developed a swing valve using a metal powder injection molding based hybrid material (Inconel 713C material with heat resistance is applied to the head part, and HK30 material with low price is applied to the rest of the body part). For this purpose, the process conditions of the metal injection molding were optimized to minimize the internal defects, and the effectiveness was confirmed by the fracture strength and fatigue test.

Keywords: hybrid metal injection molding, swing valve, turbocharger, double injection

Procedia PDF Downloads 213