Search results for: disaster risk management

Authors: Euan Donley

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Emergency Departments (EDs) are heavily burdened as presentation rates continue to rise. To improve patient flow National Emergency Access Targets (NEAT) were introduced. NEAT implements timelines for ED presentations, such as discharging patients within four hours of arrival. Mental health patients use EDs more than the general population and are generally more complex in their presentations. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of NEAT on psychiatric risk assessment of mental health patients in the ED. Seventy-eight mental health clinicians from 7 Victoria, Australia, hospital EDs participated in a mixed method analysis via anonymous online survey. NEAT was considered helpful as mental health patients were seen quicker, were less likely to abscond, could improve teamwork amongst ED staff, and in some cases administrative processes were better streamlined. However, clinicians felt that NEAT was also responsible for less time with patients and relatives’, resulted in rushed assessments, placed undue pressure on mental health clinicians, was not conducive to training, and the emphasis on time was the wrong focus for patient treatment. The profile of a patient typically likely to be treated within NEAT timelines showed a perfect storm of luck and compliance. If a patient was sober, medically stable, referred early, did not require much collateral information and did not have distressed relatives, NEAT was more likely to be met. Organisationally participants reported no organisational change or training to meet NEAT. Poor mental health staffing, multiple ED presentations and a shortage of mental health beds also hamper meeting NEAT. Findings suggest participants were supportive of NEAT in principle, but a demanding workload and organisational barriers meant NEAT had an overall negative effect on psychiatric risk assessment of mental health patients in ED.

Keywords: assessment, emergency, risk, psychiatric

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Authors: Yi-Chun Kuo, Jo-Chieh Lin

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The objective of a supply chain strategy is to reduce waste and increase efficiency to attain cost benefits, and to guarantee supply chain flexibility when facing the ever-changing market environment in order to meet customer requirements. Strategy implementation aims to fulfill common goals and attain benefits by integrating upstream and downstream enterprises, sharing information, conducting common planning, and taking part in decision making, so as to enhance the overall performance of the supply chain. With the rise of outsourcing and globalization, the increasing dependence on suppliers and customers and the rapid development of information technology, the complexity and uncertainty of the supply chain have intensified, and supply chain vulnerability has surged, resulting in adverse effects on supply chain performance. Thus, this study aims to use supply chain vulnerability as a moderating variable and apply structural equation modeling (SEM) to determine the relationships among supply chain strategy, supply chain integration, and supply chain performance, as well as the moderating effect of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain performance. The data investigation of this study was questionnaires which were collected from the management level of enterprises in Taiwan and China, 149 questionnaires were received. The result of confirmatory factor analysis shows that the path coefficients of supply chain strategy on supply chain integration and supply chain performance are positive (0.497, t= 4.914; 0.748, t= 5.919), having a significantly positive effect. Supply chain integration is also significantly positively correlated to supply chain performance (0.192, t = 2.273). The moderating effects of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain strategy and supply chain integration to supply chain performance are significant (7.407; 4.687). In Taiwan, 97.73% of enterprises are small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) focusing on receiving original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and original design manufacturer (ODM) orders. In order to meet the needs of customers and to respond to market changes, these enterprises especially focus on supply chain flexibility and their integration with the upstream and downstream enterprises. According to the observation of this research, the effect of supply chain vulnerability on supply chain performance is significant, and so enterprises need to attach great importance to the management of supply chain risk and conduct risk analysis on their suppliers in order to formulate response strategies when facing emergency situations. At the same time, risk management is incorporated into the supply chain so as to reduce the effect of supply chain vulnerability on the overall supply chain performance.

Keywords: supply chain integration, supply chain performance, supply chain vulnerability, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Djeddi Khaled, Houssou Hind, Miloudi Abdelatif, Rabah Siham

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Camels play a vital role as multipurpose animals, providing milk meat and serving as a means of transportation. They serve as a financial reserve for pastoralists and hold significant cultural and social value. Camel milk, known for its exceptional nutritional properties, is considered a valuable substitute for human milk. However, udder infections, particularly mastitis, pose significant challenges to camel farming. Clinical and subclinical mastitis can lead to substantial economic losses. Mastitis, especially the subclinical form, is a persistent and prevalent condition affecting milk hygiene and quality in dairy camels. This review offers insights into the prevalence and risk factors associated with subclinical mastitis in camels. The prevalence of subclinical mastitis in dairy camels was found to range from 9.28% to 87.78%. Major pathogens responsible for camel mastitis include Staphylococcus aureus, Coagulase-negative Staphylococcus, Streptococcus agalactiae, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, Escherichia coli, Micrococcus spp, Pasteurella haemolytica and Corynebacterium spp. The study outlines key risk factors contributing to camel mastitis, emphasizing factors such as severe tick infestation, age, stage of lactation, parity, body condition score, skin lesion on the teats or udders, anti-suckling devices, previous history of the udder, conformation of the udder, breed, unhygienic milking practices, production system, amongst others have been reported to be important in the prevalence of subclinical mastitis. This comprehensive overview provides valuable insights into the multifaceted aspects of camel mastitis, encompassing prevalent bacterial pathogens and diverse risk factors. The findings underscore the importance of holistic management practices, emphasizing hygiene, health monitoring, and targeted interventions to ensure the well-being and productivity of camels in various agro-pastoral contexts.

Keywords: bacterial pathogens, camel, mastitis, risk factors

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Authors: Makhosazana Dubazana

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Many South Africans commuters use minibus taxis daily and are connected to the informal transport network through metro centres informally known as Taxi Ranks. Taxi ranks form part of an economic nexus for many informal traders, connecting them to commuters, their prime clientele. They work along designated areas along the periphery of the taxi rank and in between taxi lanes. Informal traders are therefore at risk of adverse health effects associated with the inhalation of exhaust fumes from minibus taxis. Of the exhaust emissions, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) have high toxicity. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to conduct a Human Health Risk Assessment for informal traders, looking at their exposure to BTEX compounds. Methods: The study was conducted in a subsection of a taxi rank which is representative of the entire taxi rank. This subsection has a daily average of 400 minibus taxi moving through it and an average of 60 informal traders working in it. In the health risk assessment, a questionnaire was conducted to understand the occupational behaviour of the informal traders. This was used to deduce the exposure scenarios and sampling locations. Three sampling campaigns were run for an average of 10 hours each covering the average working hours of traders. A gas chronographer was used for collecting continues ambient air samples at 15 min intervals. Results: Over the three sampling days, the average concentrations were, 8.46ppb, 0.63 ppb, 1.27ppb and 1.0ppb for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene respectively. The average cancer risk is 9.46E-03. In several cases, they were incidences of unacceptable risk for the cumulative exposure of all four BTEX compounds. Conclusion: This study adds to the body of knowledge on the Human Health Risk effects of urban BTEX pollution, furthermore focusing on the impact of urban BTEX on high risk personal such as informal traders, in Southern Africa.

Keywords: human health risk assessment, informal traders, occupational risk, urban BTEX

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Authors: R. Ueda

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Today global society is seeking resilient partnership in local organizations and individuals, which realizes multi-stakeholders relationship. Although it is proposed by modern global framework of sustainable development, it is conceivable that such affiliation can be found out in the traditional local community in Japan, and that traditional spirit is tacitly sustaining in modern context of disaster mitigation in society and economy. Then this research is aiming to clarify and analyze implication for the global world by actual case studies. Regional and urban resilience is the ability of multi-stakeholders to cooperate flexibly and to adapt in response to changes in the circumstances caused by disasters, but there are various conflicts affecting coordination of disaster relief measures. These conflicts arise not only from a lack of communication and an insufficient network, but also from the difficulty to jointly draw common context from fragmented information. This is because of the weakness of our modern engineering which focuses on maintenance and restoration of individual systems. Here local ‘circles’ holistically includes local community and interacts periodically. Focusing on examples of resilient organizations and wisdom created in communities, what can be seen throughout history is a virtuous cycle where the information and the knowledge are structured, the context to be adapted becomes clear, and an adaptation at a higher level is made possible, by which the collaboration between organizations is deepened and expanded. And the wisdom of a solid and autonomous disaster prevention formed by the historical community called’ Waju’ – an area surrounded by circle embankment to protect the settlement from flood – lives on in government efforts of the coastal industrial island of today. Industrial company there collaborates to create a circle including common evacuation space, road access improvement and infrastructure recovery. These days, people here adopts new interface technology. Large-scale AR- Augmented Reality for more than hundred people is expressing detailed hazard by tsunami and liquefaction. Common experiences of the major disaster space and circle of mutual discussion are enforcing resilience. Collaboration spirit lies in the center of circle. A consistent key point is a virtuous cycle where the information and the knowledge are structured, the context to be adapted becomes clear, and an adaptation at a higher level is made possible, by which the collaboration between organizations is deepened and expanded. This writer believes that both self-governing human organizations and the societal implementation of technical systems are necessary. Infrastructure should be autonomously instituted by associations of companies and other entities in industrial areas for working closely with local governments. To develop advanced disaster prevention and multi-stakeholder collaboration, partnerships among industry, government, academia and citizens are important.

Keywords: industrial recovery, multi-sakeholders, traditional culture, user experience, Waju

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Authors: Abiodun Musbau Lawal, Benjamin Oladapo Olley

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Long Distance Truck Drivers (LDTDs) have been found to be a high-risk group in the spread of HIV/AIDS globally; perhaps, due to their high Sexual Risk Behaviours (SRBs). Interventions for reducing SRBs in trucking population have not been fully exploited. A quasi-experimental control group pretest-posttest design was used to assess the efficacy of psycho-education and behavioural skills training in reducing SRBs among LDTDs. Sixteen drivers rivers were randomly assigned into either experimental or control groups using balloting technique. A questionnaire was used as an instrument for data collection. Repeated measures t-test and independent t-test were used to test hypotheses. The intervention had a significant effect on the SRBs among LDTDs at post-test(t{7}=6.01, p<.01) and at followup (t{7}=6.42, p<.01). No significant difference in sexual risk behaviour of LDTDs at post-test and at follow-up stage. Similarly, intervention had significant effects on sexual risk behaviour at post-test (t {14}=- 4.69, p<.05) and at follow-up (t {14}= -9.56, p < .05) respectively. At post-test and follow-up stages, drivers in experimental group reported reduced SRBs than those in the control group. Drivers in an experimental group reported lower sexual risk behaviour a week after intervention as well as at three months follow-up than those in the control group. It is concluded that HIV/AIDS preventive intervention that provides the necessary informational and behavioural skills content can significantly impact long distance truck drivers sexual risk behaviours.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS interventions, long distance truck drivers, Nigeria, sexual risk behaviours

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Authors: Yusarina Mat-Isa, Zuraidah Mohd-Sanusi, Mohd-Nizal Haniff, Paul A. Barnes

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In view that money laundering has become eminent for banking institutions, it is an obligation for the banking institutions to adopt a risk-based approach as the integral component of the accepted policies on anti-money laundering. In doing so, those involved with the banking operations are the most critical group of personnel as these are the people who deal with the day-to-day operations of the banking institutions and are obligated to form a judgement on the level of impending risk. This requirement is extended to all relevant banking institutions staff, such as tellers and customer account representatives for them to identify suspicious customers and escalate it to the relevant authorities. Banking institutions staffs, however, face enormous challenges in identifying and distinguishing money launderers from other legitimate customers seeking genuine banking transactions. Banking institutions staffs are mostly educated and trained with the business objective in mind to serve the customers and are not trained to be “detectives with a detective’s power of observation”. Despite increasing awareness as well as trainings conducted for the banking institutions staff, their competency in assessing money laundering risk is still insufficient. Several gaps have prompted this study including the lack of behavioural perspectives in the assessment of money laundering risk in the banking institutions. Utilizing experimental approach, respondents are randomly assigned within a controlled setting with manipulated situations upon which judgement of the respondents is solicited based on various observations related to the situations. The study suggests that it is imperative that informed judgement is exercised in arriving at the decision to proceed with the banking services required by the customers. Judgement forms a basis of opinion for the banking institution staff to decide if the customers posed money laundering risk. Failure to exercise good judgement could results in losses and absorption of unnecessary risk into the banking institutions. Although the banking institutions are exposed with choices of automated solutions in assessing money laundering risk, the human factor in assessing the risk is indispensable. Individual staff in the banking institutions is the first line of defence who are responsible for screening the impending risk of any customer soliciting for banking services. At the end of the spectrum, the individual role involvement on the subject of money laundering risk assessment is not a substitute for automated solutions as human judgement is inimitable.

Keywords: banking institutions, experimental approach, money laundering, risk assessment

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Authors: Seba Mohanty, Jitendra Mahakud

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Capital ratio is one of the major indicators of the stability of the commercial banks. Pertinent to its pervasive importance, over the years the regulators, policy makers focus on the maintenance of the particular level of capital ratio to minimize the solvency and liquidation risk. In this context, it is very much important to identify the relationship between capital and risk and find out the factors which determine the capital ratios of commercial banks. The study examines the relationship between capital and risk of the commercial banks operating in India. Other bank specific variables like bank size, deposit, profitability, non-performing assets, bank liquidity, net interest margin, loan loss reserves, deposits variability and regulatory pressure are also considered for the analysis. The period of study is 1997-2015 i.e. the period of post liberalization. To identify the impact of financial crisis and implementation of Basel II on capital ratio, we have divided the whole period into two sub-periods i.e. 1997-2008 and 2008-2015. This study considers all the three types of commercial banks, i.e. public sector, the private sector and foreign banks, which have continuous data for the whole period. The main sources of data are Prowess data base maintained by centre for monitoring Indian economy (CMIE) and Reserve Bank of India publications. We use simultaneous equation model and more specifically Two Stage Least Square method to find out the relationship between capital and risk. From the econometric analysis, we find that capital and risk affect each other simultaneously, and this is consistent across the time period and across the type of banks. Moreover, regulation has a positive significant impact on the ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets, but no significant impact on the banks risk taking behaviour. Our empirical findings also suggest that size has a negative impact on capital and risk, indicating that larger banks increase their capital less than the other banks supported by the too-big-to-fail hypothesis. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by predicting a strong relationship between capital and risk in an emerging economy, where banking sector plays a majority role for financial development. Further this study may be considered as a primary study to find out the macro economic factors which affecting risk and capital in India.

Keywords: capital, commercial bank, risk, simultaneous equation model

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Shadi Asadzandi, Micaela Demichela

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This paper presents the results of a study to assess crucial aspects and the strength of the scientific basis of a typically interdisciplinary, applied field: food supply chain risk assessment research. Our approach is based on an advanced scientometrics analysis with novel elements to assess the influence and dissemination of research results and to measure interdisciplinary. This paper aims to describe the quantity and quality of the publication trends in food supply chain risk assessment. The population under study was composed of 266 articles from database web of science. The results were analyzed based on date of publication, type of document, language of the documents, source of publications, subject areas, authors and their affiliations, and the countries involved in developing the articles.

Keywords: food supply chain, risk assessment, scientometrics, web of science

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Authors: Loonibha Manandhar, Rajendra Bhandari, Kumud Raj Kafle

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Nepal’s Terai region is a part of the Ganges river basin which is one of the most disaster-prone areas of the world, with recurrent monsoon flooding causing millions in damage and the death and displacement of hundreds of people and households every year. The vulnerability of human settlements to natural disasters such as floods is increasing, and mapping changes in land use practices and hydro-geological parameters is essential in developing resilient communities and strong disaster management policies. The objective of this study was to develop a flood hazard zonation map of Orai Khola watershed and map the decadal land use/land cover dynamics of the watershed. The watershed area was delineated using SRTM DEM, and LANDSAT images were classified into five land use classes (forest, grassland, sediment and bare land, settlement area and cropland, and water body) using pixel-based semi-automated supervised maximum likelihood classification. Decadal changes in each class were then quantified using spatial modelling. Flood hazard mapping was performed by assigning weights to factors slope, rainfall distribution, distance from the river and land use/land cover on the basis of their estimated influence in causing flood hazard and performing weighed overlay analysis to identify areas that are highly vulnerable. The forest and grassland coverage increased by 11.53 km² (3.8%) and 1.43 km² (0.47%) from 1996 to 2016. The sediment and bare land areas decreased by 12.45 km² (4.12%) from 1996 to 2016 whereas settlement and cropland areas showed a consistent increase to 14.22 km² (4.7%). Waterbody coverage also increased to 0.3 km² (0.09%) from 1996-2016. 1.27% (3.65 km²) of total watershed area was categorized into very low hazard zone, 20.94% (60.31 km²) area into low hazard zone, 37.59% (108.3 km²) area into moderate hazard zone, 29.25% (84.27 km²) area into high hazard zone and 31 villages which comprised 10.95% (31.55 km²) were categorized into high hazard zone area.

Keywords: flood hazard, land use/land cover, Orai river, supervised maximum likelihood classification, weighed overlay analysis

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Authors: Sahar Maleki, Reza Shahbazi, Nayere Sadat Bayat Ghiasi

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Applied geomorphological maps are crucial tools in engineering, particularly for the placement of structures. These maps provide precise information about the terrain, including landforms, soil types, and geological features, which are essential for making informed decisions about construction sites. The importance of these maps is evident in risk assessment, as they help identify potential hazards such as landslides, erosion, and flooding, enabling better risk management. Additionally, these maps assist in selecting the most suitable locations for engineering projects. Cost efficiency is another significant benefit, as proper site selection and risk assessment can lead to substantial cost savings by avoiding unsuitable areas and minimizing the need for extensive ground modifications. Ensuring the maps are accurate and up-to-date is crucial for reliable decision-making. Detailed information about various geomorphological features is necessary to provide a comprehensive overview. Integrating geomorphological data with other environmental and engineering data to create a holistic view of the site is one of the most fundamental steps in engineering. In summary, the preparation of applied geomorphological maps is a vital step in the planning and execution of engineering projects, ensuring safety, efficiency, and sustainability. In the Geological Survey of Iran, the preparation of these applied maps has enabled the identification and recognition of areas prone to geological hazards such as landslides, subsidence, earthquakes, and more. Additionally, areas with problematic soils, potential groundwater zones, and safe construction sites are identified and made available to the public.

Keywords: geomorphological maps, geohazards, risk assessment, decision-making

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Authors: Lucie Matricon, Anne Roubaud, Geert Haarlemmer, Christophe Geantet

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Introduction: This case discusses the management of two floor of mouth (FOM) Squamous Cell Carcinomas (SCC) not identified upon initial biopsy. Case Report: A 51 year-old male presented with right FOM erythroleukoplakia. Relevant medical history included alcoholic dependence syndrome and alcoholic liver disease. Relevant drug therapy encompassed acamprosate, folic acid, hydroxocobalamin and thiamine. The patient had a 55.5 pack-year smoking history and alcohol dependence from age 14, drinking 16 units/day. FOM incisional biopsy and histopathological analysis diagnosed Carcinoma in situ. Treatment involved wide local excision. Specimen analysis revealed two separate foci of pT1 moderately differentiated SCCs. Carcinoma staging scans revealed no pathological lymphadenopathy, no local invasion or metastasis. SCCs had been excised in completion with narrow margins. MDT discussion concluded that in view of the field changes it would be difficult to identify specific areas needing further excision, although techniques such as Lugol’s Iodine were considered. Further surgical resection, surgical neck management and sentinel lymph node biopsy was offered. The patient declined intervention, primary management involved close monitoring alongside alcohol and smoking cessation referral. Discussion: Narrow excisional margins can increase carcinoma recurrence risk. Biopsy failed to identify SCCs, despite sampling an area of clinical concern. For gross field change multiple incisional biopsies should be considered to increase chance of accurate diagnosis and appropriate treatment. Coupling of tobacco and alcohol has a synergistic effect, exponentially increasing the relative risk of oral carcinoma development. Tobacco and alcoholic control is fundamental in reducing treatment‑related side effects, recurrence risk, and second primary cancer development.

Keywords: microalgae, biofuels, hydrothermal liquefaction, biomass

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Authors: Lina Najafian, Hamidreza Vakilifard

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The present study focused on the relationship between the quality of accruals and non-systematic risk. The independent study variables included the ability of accruals, the information content of accruals, and amount of discretionary accruals considered as accruals quality measures. The dependent variable was non-systematic risk based on the Fama and French Three Factor model (FFTFM) and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The control variables were firm size, financial leverage, stock return, cash flow fluctuations, and book-to-market ratio. The data collection method was based on library research and document mining including financial statements. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the data. The study results showed that there is a significant direct relationship between financial leverage and discretionary accruals and non-systematic risk based on FFTFM and CAPM. There is also a significant direct relationship between the ability of accruals, information content of accruals, firm size, and stock return and non-systematic based on both models. It was also found that there is no relationship between book-to-market ratio and cash flow fluctuations and non-systematic risk.

Keywords: accruals quality, non-systematic risk, CAPM, FFTFM

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Authors: O. O. Olawusi-Peters, K. I. Adejugbagbe

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The concentration of heavy metal (Cd, Pb, Fe, Zn, Cu) in Clarias gariepinus collected from fish markets; Fanibi (Station I) and Fiwasaye (Station II) in Akure metropolis, Ondo state, Nigeria were investigated to ascertain the safety for the consumers. 60 samples were collected from the two markets in three batches (I, II, III) for a period of six months and analyzed for heavy metals in the gills and muscles of the fish. Also, the Health Risk Index (HRI) was used to determine the health risk of these metals to the consumer. The results showed that the investigated metal concentration was higher in station I than station II, except Pb having higher concentration in station II than station I. In both stations, the highest concentration of Fe was recorded in the gills (12.60 ± 1.51; 6.94 ± 1.38) and muscles (3.72 ± 0.09; 3.86 ± 0.33) of samples in batch I. Also, the HRI revealed that consumption of Clarias gariepinus from these study areas did not pose any health risk (HRI < 1). In addition, concentrations of the heavy metals were all below the permissible limits recommended by FAO/WHO.

Keywords: health risk index, heavy metals, clarias gariepinus, akure metropolis, fish monger

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Authors: Babatunde Dosumu, Obuks Ejohwomu, Akilu Yunusa-Kaltungo

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Cost estimation in construction is often difficult, particularly when dealing with risks and uncertainties, which are inevitable and peculiar to developing countries like Nigeria. Direct consequences of these are major deviations in cost, duration, and quality. The fundamental aim of this study is to develop a framework for assessing the impacts of risk on cost estimation, which in turn causes variabilities between contract sum and final account. This is very important, as initial estimates given to clients should reflect the certain magnitude of consistency and accuracy, which the client builds other planning-related activities upon, and also enhance the capabilities of construction industry professionals by enabling better prediction of the final account from the contract sum. In achieving this, a systematic literature review was conducted with cost variability and construction projects as search string within three databases: Scopus, Web of science, and Ebsco (Business source premium), which are further analyzed and gap(s) in knowledge or research discovered. From the extensive review, it was found that factors causing deviation between final accounts and contract sum ranged between 1 and 45. Besides, it was discovered that a cost estimation framework similar to Building Cost Information Services (BCIS) is unavailable in Nigeria, which is a major reason why initial estimates are very often inconsistent, leading to project delay, abandonment, or determination at the expense of the huge sum of money invested. It was concluded that the development of a cost estimation framework that is adjudged an important tool in risk shedding rather than risk-sharing in project risk management would be a panacea to cost estimation problems, leading to cost variability in the Nigerian construction industry by the time this ongoing Ph.D. research is completed. It was recommended that practitioners in the construction industry should always take into account risk in order to facilitate the rapid development of the construction industry in Nigeria, which should give stakeholders a more in-depth understanding of the estimation effectiveness and efficiency to be adopted by stakeholders in both the private and public sectors.

Keywords: cost variability, construction projects, future studies, Nigeria

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Authors: Iftikhar Ahmad, Youssef Elkezza

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Sarir oilfield is in North Africa. It has facilities for oil and gas production. The assets of the Sarir oilfield can be divided into five following categories, namely: (i) well bore and wellheads; (ii) vessels such as separators, desalters, and gas processing facilities; (iii) pipelines including all flow lines, trunk lines, and shipping lines; (iv) storage tanks; (v) other assets such as turbines and compressors, etc. The nature of the petroleum industry recognizes the potential human, environmental and financial consequences that can result from failing to maintain the integrity of wellheads, vessels, tanks, pipelines, and other assets. The importance of effective asset integrity management increases as the industry infrastructure continues to age. The primary objective of assets integrity management (AIM) is to maintain assets in a fit-for-service condition while extending their remaining life in the most reliable, safe, and cost-effective manner. Corrosion management is one of the important aspects of successful asset integrity management. It covers corrosion mitigation, monitoring, inspection, and risk evaluation. External corrosion on pipelines, well bores, buried assets, and bottoms of tanks is controlled with a combination of coatings by cathodic protection, while the external corrosion on surface equipment, wellheads, and storage tanks is controlled by coatings. The periodic cleaning of the pipeline by pigging helps in the prevention of internal corrosion. Further, internal corrosion of pipelines is prevented by chemical treatment and controlled operations. This paper describes the integrity management system used in the Sarir oil field for its oil and gas production facilities based on standard practices of corrosion mitigation and inspection.

Keywords: assets integrity management, corrosion prevention in oilfield assets, corrosion management in oilfield, corrosion prevention, inspection activities

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Authors: Hamadi Khlif

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This paper deals with the understanding of the concept of e-management and the development of a measuring instrument adapted to the new problems encountered during the application of this new practice within the modern enterprise. Two principal e-management factors have been isolated in an exploratory study carried out among 260 participants. A confirmatory study applied to a second sample of 270 participants has been established in a cross-validation of the scale of measurement. The study presents the literature review specifically dedicated to e-management and the results of the exploratory and confirmatory phase of the development of this scale, which demonstrates satisfactory psychometric qualities. The e-management has two dimensions: a managerial dimension and a technological dimension.

Keywords: e-management, management, ICT deployment, mode of management

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Authors: Lowanika Victor Tibane, David Mamba

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Human body, animals, and plants depend on certain essential metals in permissible quantities for their survival. Excessive metal concentration may cause severe malfunctioning of the organisms and even fatal in extreme cases. Because of gold mining in the Witwatersrand basin in South Africa, enormous untreated mine dumps comprise elevated concentration of essential trace elements. Elevated quantities of trace metal have direct negative impact on the quality of soil for different land use types, reduce soil efficiency for plant growth, and affect the health human and animals. A total of 21 subsoil samples were examined using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry and X-ray fluorescence methods and the results elevated men concentration of Fe (36,433.39) > S (5,071.83) > Cu (1,717,28) > Mn (612.81) > Cr (74.52) > Zn (68.67) > Ni (40.44) > Co (9.63) > P (3.49) > Mo > (2.74), reported in mg/kg. Using various contamination indices, it was discovered that the sites surveyed are on average moderately contaminated with Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, S, and Zn. The ecological risk assessment revealed a low ecological risk for Cr, Ni and Zn, whereas Cu poses a very high ecological risk.

Keywords: essential trace elements, soil contamination, contamination indices, toxicity, descriptive statistics, ecological risk evaluation

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Authors: Naveed Ul Hassan, Bilal Aziz, Maryam Mushtaq, Imran Ameen Khan

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Equity risk premium (ERP) is the stock return in excess of risk free return. Even though it is an essential topic of finance but still there is no common consensus upon its forecasting. For forecasting ERP, apart from the macroeconomic variables attention is devoted to technical indicators as well. For this purpose, set of 14 technical and 14 macro-economic variables is selected and all forecasts are generated based on a standard predictive regression framework, where ERP is regressed on a constant and a lag of a macroeconomic variable or technical indicator. The comparative results showed that technical indicators provide better indications about ERP estimates as compared to macro-economic variables. The relative strength of ERP predictability is also investigated by using National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) data of business cycle expansion and recessions and found that ERP predictability is more than twice for recessions as compared to expansions.

Keywords: equity risk premium, forecasting, macroeconomic indicators, technical indicators

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Authors: Haïfa Ben Mna, Ayed Added

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To evaluate the trace metals contamination status in the Gulf of Tunis, forty one sediment samples were analyzed using different approaches. According to certain contamination and ecological risk indices (Contamination Factor, Geoaccumulation index and Ecological risk index), Hg has the highest contamination level while pollution by Ni, Pb, Cd and Cr was absent. The highest concentrations of trace metals were found in sediments collected from the offshore and coastal areas located opposite the main exchange points with the gulf particularly, the Mejerda and Meliane Rivers, the Khalij Channel, Ghar El Melh and El Malah lagoons, Tunis Lake and Sebkhat Ariana. However, further ecological indices (Potential ecological risk index, Toxic unit and Mean effect-range median quotient) and comparison with sediment quality guidelines suggest that in addition to Mercury, Cr, Pb and Ni concentrations are detrimental to biota in both the offshore and areas near to the exchange points with the gulf. Moreover, in these areas the results from sequential extraction and individual contamination factor calculation pointed to the mobility and bioavailability of Cr, Pb and Ni.

Keywords: sediment, trace metals, contamination assessment, ecological risk, Tunis gulf

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Authors: A. Al-Wandi, A. Al-Ali, R. Dali, Y. Al-Karaghouli

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Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become an alarming health problem across the globe. The risk of developing those diseases begins in childhood and develops gradually under the influence of risk factors including obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, cigarette smoking and decreased physical activity. Therefore, this study aims to determine the level of knowledge, attitudes, and practices of the risk factors of lifestyle induced chronic diseases (non-communicable diseases) among secondary school students in Sharjah city. Methods: Five hundred and ninety-one school children, from grades 10 to 12, formed the study sample, using the multistage stratified cluster sampling method. Four governmental schools were chosen, for each gender. Data was collected through a pretested, close-ended questionnaire consisting of five sections; demographics, physical activity, diet, smoking and sleeping patterns. Frequencies and descriptive statistics were used to analyze data through SPSS 23. Results: The data showed 64.6% of students had low knowledge of risk factors of non-communicable diseases. Concerning physical activity, 58.2 % were physically inactive and females being less active than males. More than 2/3 of students didn’t fulfill the recommended daily intake of fruits and vegetables (75.9%). 8% reported to be smokers with cigarettes being the most encountered tobacco product. Conclusion: Our study has demonstrated a low level of knowledge and practices yet, positive attitudes towards risk factors of chronic diseases. We recommend implementation of thorough awareness campaigns through public health education about the risk factors of non-communicable diseases.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, physical activity, diet, knowledge, attitudes, practices, smoking

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Authors: A. Sivakumar, S. S. Darun Prakash, P. Navaneethakrishnan

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In and around Erode District, it is estimated that more than 1250 chemical and allied textile processing fabric industries are affected, partially closed and shut off for various reasons such as poor management, poor supplier performance, lack of planning for productivity, fluctuation of output, poor investment, waste analysis, labor problems, capital/labor ratio, accumulation of stocks, poor maintenance of resources, deficiencies in the quality of fabric, low capacity utilization, age of plant and equipment, high investment and input but low throughput, poor research and development, lack of energy, workers’ fear of loss of jobs, work force mix and work ethic. The main objective of this work is to analyze the existing conditions in textile fabric sector, validate the break even of Total Productivity (TP), analyze, design and implement fuzzy sets and mathematical programming for improvement of productivity and quality dimensions in the fabric processing industry. It needs to be compatible with the reality of textile and fabric processing industries. The highly risk events from productivity and quality dimension were found by fuzzy systems and results are wrapped up among the textile fabric processing industry.

Keywords: break even point, fuzzy crisp data, fuzzy sets, productivity, productivity cycle, total productive maintenance

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Authors: Azizah Nurdin, Trika Irianta, Mardiah Tahir, Maisuri T. Chalid

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Background: Studies of anal incontinence in the general population are rare however its financial healthcare cost is significant. Women attended Hasanuddin University Teaching Hospital and its networking in Makassar, Indonesia was surveyed between February to April 2015 about their obstetrical and gynecological history. Aims: To establish obstetrical risk factor of anal incontinence among women in Makassar. Methods: In a cross sectional face to face interview study, 135 women aged 30 years or more were selected randomly. Participants were asked to complete an anal incontinence questionnaire. Results: From a total sample of 135 respondents, 42,2 % reported has flatulence incontinence. Parity, history of anal sphincter laceration, history of having large baby, history of assisted vaginal delivery were shown have no significant association with anal incontinence, while history of episiotomy was shown have a significant association with anal incontinence (p value < 0.05). The risk of flatulence incontinence was higher among women with history of episiotomy (OR : 2,85, 95 % CI = 1,58- 5,13) Conclusions: This study has confirmed that fecal incontinence is a fairly common symptom. Flatulence incontinence is the most frequent even. An obstetrical factor like episiotomy is one of risk factor that could be avoided in order to prevent anal incontinence.

Keywords: anal incontinence, flatulence incontinence, obstetrical risk factor, women

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Authors: Sandipika Gupta

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Objective: Due to admirably low 30-day mortality rates for paediatric cardiac surgery, it is now pertinent to turn towards more intermediate-length outcomes such as morbidities closely associated with these surgeries. One such morbidity, major adverse events (MAE) comprises a group of adverse outcomes associated with paediatric cardiac surgery (e.g. cardiac arrest, major haemorrhage). Methods: This is a retrospective study that analysed the incidence and impact of MAE which was the primary outcome in the UK population. The data was collected in 5 centres between October 2015 and June 2017, amassing 3090 surgical episodes. The incidence and risk factors for MAE, were assessed through descriptive statistical analyses and multivariate logistic regression. The secondary outcomes of life status at 6 months and the length of hospital stay were also evaluated to understand the impact of MAE on patients. Results: Out of 3090 episodes, 134 (4.3%) had a postoperative MAE. The majority of the episodes were in: neonates (47%, P<0.001), high-risk cardiac diagnosis groups (20.1%, P<0.001), episodes with longer 5mes on the bypass (72.4%, P<0.001) and urgent surgeries (57.9%, P<0.001). Episodes reporting MAE also reported longer lengths of stay in hospital (29 days vs 9 days, P<0.001). Furthermore, patients experiencing MAE were at a higher risk of mortality at the 6-month life status check (mortality rates: 29.2% vs 2%, P<0.001).Conclusions: Key risk factors were identified. An important negative impact of MAE was found for patients. The identified risk factors could be used to profile and flag at-risk patients. Monitoring of MAE rates and closer investigation into the care pathway before and after individual MAEs in children’s heart units may lead to a reduction in these terrible events.

Keywords:

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Zina Benouaret, Djamil A¨ıssani

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In this paper, we study the performance of the strong stability method of the univariate classical risk model. We interest to the stability bounds established using two approaches. The first based on the strong stability method developed for a general Markov chains. The second approach based on the regenerative processes theory . By adopting an algorithmic procedure, we study the performance of the stability method in the case of exponential distribution claim amounts. After presenting numerically and graphically the stability bounds, an interpretation and comparison of the results have been done.

Keywords: Marcov chain, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, strong stability

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Authors: Malvina Hoxha, Valerie Capra, Carola Buccellati, Angelo Sala, Clara Cena, Roberta Fruttero, Massimo Bertinaria, G. Enrico Rovati

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Today COXIBs are used in the treatment of arthritis and many other painful conditions in selected patients with high gastrointestinal risk and low CV risk. Previously we found a new mechanism of action of a traditional NSAID (diclofenac) and a COXIB (lumiracoxib) that possess weak competitive antagonism at the TP receptor. We hypothesize that modifying the structure of a known specific inhibitor of cyclooxygenase-2 (COXIB), so that it becomes also a more potent thromboxane antagonist will preserve the anti-inflammatory and gastrointestinal safety typical of COXIBs and prevent the cardiovascular risk associated with long term therapy.

Keywords: cyclooxygenase, inflammation, lumiracoxib, thromboxane A2

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Authors: Giriraj Achari, Malay Bhattacharyya

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In this paper, the effectiveness of Copula Markov Switching Multifractal (MSM) models at forecasting Value-at-Risk of a two-stock portfolio is studied. The innovations are allowed to be drawn from distributions that can capture skewness and leptokurtosis, which are well documented empirical characteristics observed in financial returns. The candidate distributions considered for this purpose are Johnson-SU, Pearson Type-IV and α-Stable distributions. The two univariate marginal distributions are combined using the Student-t copula. The estimation of all parameters is performed by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Finally, the models are compared in terms of accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts using tests of unconditional coverage and independence. It is found that Copula-MSM-models with leptokurtic innovation distributions perform slightly better than Copula-MSM model with Normal innovations. Copula-MSM models, in general, produce better VaR forecasts as compared to traditional methods like Historical Simulation method, Variance-Covariance approach and Copula-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (Copula-GARCH) models.

Keywords: Copula, Markov Switching, multifractal, value-at-risk

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Authors: Chitsuphang Ungsvanonda

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Objective of this research is to study the government’s theater management system regarding planning and operation. Also studying how the management associate with the change of an environment. This is to gather an appropriate model to develop a theater management system especially regarding all show performance. The research will be done by a Qualitative Research with an interview of 35 person by specify and unexpectedly group.

Keywords: management, theatre, social, culture

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Authors: Fredrik Hartwig, Peter Lindberg

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In 2004, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) issued new accounting standards for impairment testing of goodwill. IFRS 3 Business Combinations and IAS 36 Impairment of Assets prohibited amortization of acquired goodwill and instead required companies to test goodwill for impairment annually or more often if necessary. The goodwill impairment test is based on management’s judgement and estimations, making the impairment-only-approach subjective and unreliable. Management can use the discretion opportunistically by managing goodwill impairments. The IASB’s remedy to the reliability problem has been to demand transparent financial reports. IAS 36 paragraph 134 requires detailed disclosures regarding the impairment test in order to make potentially unreasonable assumptions and estimations visible. The disclosure requirements should thus (in theory) make it more difficult for management to ‘choose’ assumptions and estimations that suit an agenda. Whether the requirement to disclose detailed disclosures regarding the impairment test leads to less opportunism is however an empirical question. This work analyses whether one of the required disclosures in IAS 36 paragraph 134, the reported discount rate, differs from an independently estimated risk-adjusted discount rate. Estimates of discount rates that are either lower or higher than the independently estimated discount rate are here defined as opportunism. In the former case - i.e. when the reported discount rate is lower - the objective may be to avoid profit reducing impairment charges. In the latter case - i.e. when the reported discount rate is higher - the objective may be to reduce profits or take ‘big baths’. This paper differs in one important respect from previous similar studies, the majority of which are based on purely descriptive statistics; we use multivariate regression analysis to analyze what factors affect deviations between disclosed discount rates and independently estimated discount rates. The sample consists of Swedish and Finnish listed companies. Swedish and Finnish listed companies are analysed since the accounting oversight bodies differ between the two countries. The results show that discount rate deviations in Swedish and Finnish listed companies are significantly related to accounting oversight, size and industry but not financial risk, business risk and goodwill intensity.

Keywords: discount rate, manipulation, goodwill impairment test, disclosures

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Authors: Aida Alemany, Laura Ballester, Ana González-Urteaga

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From 2007 subprime crisis to the recent Eurozone debt crisis the European banking industry has experienced a terrible financial instability situation with increasing levels of CDS spreads (used as a proxy of credit risk). This paper investigates whether volatility transmission channels in European banking markets have changed after three significant crises’ events during the period January 2006 to March 2013. The global financial crisis is characterized by a unidirectional volatility shocks spillovers effect in credit risk from inside to outside the Eurozone. By contrast, the Eurozone debt crisis is revealed to be local in nature with the euro as the key element suggesting a market fragmentation between distressed peripheral and non-distressed core Eurozone countries, whereas retaining the local currency have acted as a firewall. With these findings we are able to shed light on the impact of the different crises on the European banking credit risk dynamics.

Keywords: CDS spreads, credit risk, volatility spillovers, financial crisis

Procedia PDF Downloads 468