Search results for: future saving
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8017

Search results for: future saving

7057 A Study of Heavy Hydrocarbons Upgrading by Microwave Pyrolysis

Authors: Thanida Sritangthong, Suksun Amornraksa

Abstract:

By-product upgrading is crucial in hydrocarbon industries as it can increase overall profit margin of the business. Microwave-assisted pyrolysis is relatively new technique which induces heat directly to raw materials. This results in a more energy saving and more energy-efficient process. It is also a promising method to enhance and accelerate chemical reactions, thus reducing the pyrolysis reaction time and increasing the quality of value-added products from different kinds of feedstocks. In this study, upgrading opportunity of fuel oil by-product from an olefins plant is investigated by means of microwave pyrolysis. The experiment was conducted in a lab-scale quartz reactor placed inside a 1,100 watts household microwave oven. Operating temperature was varied from 500 to 900C to observe the consequence on the quality of pyrolysis products. Several microwave receptors i.e. activated carbon, silicon carbide (SiC) and copper oxide (CuO) were used as a material to enhance the heating and reaction in the reactor. The effect of residence time was determined by adjusting flow rate of N2 carrier gas. The chemical composition and product yield were analyzed by using gas chromatography (GC) and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). The results showed that hydrogen, methane, ethylene, and ethane were obtained as the main gaseous products from all operating temperatures while the main liquid products were alkane, cycloalkane and polycyclic aromatic groups. The results indicated that microwave pyrolysis has a potential to upgrade low value hydrocarbons to high value products.

Keywords: fuel oil, heavy hydrocarbons, microwave pyrolysis, pyrolysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 319
7056 Well Water Pollution Caused by Central Batik Industry in Kliwonan, Sragen, Central Java, Indonesia in Ecofeminism Perspective

Authors: Intan Purnama Sari, Fitri Damayanti, Nabiila Yumna Ghina

Abstract:

Kliwonan, Sragen is a famous central batik industry village. In the process of the industry, women are placed into the central role but marginalized in economic mode. Women have the double burden on domestic sector and public sector (work as craftsmen batik). The existence of the batik industry bring on issues related to the pollution of water resources as a result of waste water with the marginalized of women. This research aims to examine the relevance of the pollution of the water from the well in Kliwonan with women as the biggest role holders through ecofeminism perspective. To examine these aspects then made observations, documentation, and interview against women batik craftsmen. The results of the study showed that the wells as sources of water to the inhabitants of contaminated because the liquid waste water batik industry. The impact of women must buy clean water each month to meet the needs of the household water with the reward that is obtained from the result of labor as much as Rp 12,000 per day. It proves the marginalized women on economic mode. Based on the results of research done, it can be concluded that the required environmental planning to promote how women do the rescue environment. The implementation requires kelor (Moringa oleifera seeds) as such as natural coagulants of sources of water-saving and easy to use.

Keywords: well water pollution, ecofeminism, environmental planning, Moringa oleifera

Procedia PDF Downloads 279
7055 Remote Sensing and Gis Use in Trends of Urbanization and Regional Planning

Authors: Sawan Kumar Jangid

Abstract:

The paper attempts to study various facets of urbanization and regional planning in the framework of the present conditions and future needs. Urbanization is a dynamic system in which development and changes are prominent features; which implies population growth and changes in the primary, secondary and tertiary sector in the economy. Urban population is increasing day by day due to a natural increase in population and migration from rural areas, and the impact is bound to have in urban areas in terms of infrastructure, environment, water supply and other vital resources. For the organized way of planning and monitoring the implementation of Physical urban and regional plans high-resolution satellite imagery is the potential solution. Now the Remote Sensing data is widely used in urban as well as regional planning, infrastructure planning mainly telecommunication and transport network planning, highway development, accessibility to market area development in terms of catchment and population built-up area density. With Remote Sensing it is possible to identify urban growth, which falls outside the formal planning control. Remote Sensing and GIS technique combined together facilitate the planners, in making a decision, for general public and investors to have relevant data for their use in minimum time. This paper sketches out the Urbanization modal for the future development of Urban and Regional Planning. The paper suggests, a dynamic approach towards regional development strategy.

Keywords: development, dynamic, migration, resolution

Procedia PDF Downloads 420
7054 Characteristics and Key Exploration Directions of Gold Deposits in China

Authors: Bin Wang, Yong Xu, Honggang Qu, Rongmei Liu, Zhenji Gao

Abstract:

Based on the geodynamic environment, basic geological characteristics of minerals and so on, gold deposits in China are divided into 11 categories, of which tectonic fracture altered rock, mid-intrudes and contact zone, micro-fine disseminated and continental volcanic types are the main prospecting kinds. The metallogenic age of gold deposits in China is dominated by the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. According to the geotectonic units, geological evolution, geological conditions, spatial distribution, gold deposits types, metallogenic factors etc., 42 gold concentration areas are initially determined and have a concentrated distribution feature. On the basis of the gold exploration density, gold concentration areas are divided into high, medium and low level areas. High ones are mainly distributed in the central and eastern regions. 93.04% of the gold exploration drillings are within 500 meters, but there are some problems, such as less and shallower of drilling verification etc.. The paper discusses the resource potentials of gold deposits and proposes the future prospecting directions and suggestions. The deep and periphery of old mines in the central and eastern regions and western area, especially in Xinjiang and Qinghai, will be the future key prospecting one and have huge potential gold reserves. If the exploration depth is extended to 2,000 meters shallow, the gold resources will double.

Keywords: gold deposits, gold deposits types, gold concentration areas, prospecting, resource potentiality

Procedia PDF Downloads 77
7053 Rethinking the Concept of Classroom Management during COVID-19 Times: An EFL Perspective

Authors: Hadjer Chellia

Abstract:

In the light of the recent global pandemic, different issues in educational research seem to invite careful considerations. Following this perspective, this study sets out to question the concept of classroom management in an EFL higher education context during Covid-19. In order to gain an in-depth understanding of their experiences, 6 EFL teachers from different Algerian universities took part in semi-structured interviews. The main emerging themes revealed that EFL teachers have different pedagogical practices in relation to classroom management during the global crisis than those of normal times. In relation to flexible education theory, the teachers’ experiences suggest flexible classroom management during Covid-19; flexibility in the teaching methods, approach and design, flexibility in time, flexibility in space and pace (speed), flexibility in assessment modes and flexibility in coping with students’ well-being. The flexibility awareness helps them to develop readiness towards the future, mainly in terms of maintaining an appropriate pedagogy to face the future crisis. In terms of theoretical concepts, working on classroom management under unusual circumstances in relation to flexible education helped come out with the concept of flexible classroom management (FCM) and virtual classroom management (VCM). It is then important for educators and researchers to rethink different pedagogical concepts and mind a careful application in the case of unusual times.

Keywords: Covid-19, EFL educators, flexible classroom management, flexible education, virtual classroom management

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
7052 Direct Current Grids in Urban Planning for More Sustainable Urban Energy and Mobility

Authors: B. Casper

Abstract:

The energy transition towards renewable energies and drastically reduced carbon dioxide emissions in Germany drives multiple sectors into a transformation process. Photovoltaic and on-shore wind power are predominantly feeding in the low and medium-voltage grids. The electricity grid is not laid out to allow an increasing feed-in of power in low and medium voltage grids. Electric mobility is currently in the run-up phase in Germany and still lacks a significant amount of charging stations. The additional power demand by e-mobility cannot be supplied by the existing electric grids in most cases. The future demands in heating and cooling of commercial and residential buildings are increasingly generated by heat-pumps. Yet the most important part in the energy transition is the storage of surplus energy generated by photovoltaic and wind power sources. Water electrolysis is one way to store surplus energy known as power-to-gas. With the vehicle-to-grid technology, the upcoming fleet of electric cars could be used as energy storage to stabilize the grid. All these processes use direct current (DC). The demand of bi-directional flow and higher efficiency in the future grids can be met by using DC. The Flexible Electrical Networks (FEN) research campus at RWTH Aachen investigates interdisciplinary about the advantages, opportunities, and limitations of DC grids. This paper investigates the impact of DC grids as a technological innovation on the urban form and urban life. Applying explorative scenario development, analyzation of mapped open data sources on grid networks and research-by-design as a conceptual design method, possible starting points for a transformation to DC medium voltage grids could be found. Several fields of action have emerged in which DC technology could become a catalyst for future urban development: energy transition in urban areas, e-mobility, and transformation of the network infrastructure. The investigation shows a significant potential to increase renewable energy production within cities with DC grids. The charging infrastructure for electric vehicles will predominantly be using DC in the future because fast and ultra fast charging can only be achieved with DC. Our research shows that e-mobility, combined with autonomous driving has the potential to change the urban space and urban logistics fundamentally. Furthermore, there are possible win-win-win solutions for the municipality, the grid operator and the inhabitants: replacing overhead transmission lines by underground DC cables to open up spaces in contested urban areas can lead to a positive example of how the energy transition can contribute to a more sustainable urban structure. The outlook makes clear that target grid planning and urban planning will increasingly need to be synchronized.

Keywords: direct current, e-mobility, energy transition, grid planning, renewable energy, urban planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 129
7051 Public Participation in Political Transformation: From the Coup D’etat in 2014 to the Events Leading up to the Proposed Election in 2018 in Thailand

Authors: Pataramon Satalak, Sakrit Isariyanon, Teerapong Puripanik

Abstract:

This article uses the recent events in Thailand as a case study for examining why democratic transition is necessary during political upheaval to ensure that the people’s power remains unaffected. After seizing power in May 2014, the military, backed by anti-government protestors, selected and established their own system to govern the country. They set up the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) which established a People’s Assembly, aiming to reach a compromise between the conflicting opinions of former, pro-government and anti-government protesters. It plans to achieve this through political reform before returning sovereign power to the people via an election in 2018. If a governmental authority is not representative of the people (e.g. a military government) it does not count as a legitimate government. During the last four years of military government, from May 2014 to January 2018, their rule of Thailand has been widely controversial, specifically regarding their commitment to democracy, human rights violations and their manipulation of the rule of law. Democratic legitimacy relies not only on established mechanisms for public participation (like referendums or elections) but also public participation based on accessible and educational reform (often via NGOs) to ensure that the free and fair will of the people can be expressed. Through their actions over the last three years, the Thai military government has damaged both of these components, impacting future public participation in politics. The authors make some observations about the specific actions the military government has taken to erode the democratic legitimacy of future public participation: the increasing dominance of military courts over civil courts; civil society’s limited involvement in political activities; the drafting of a new constitution and their attempt to master support through referenda and its consequence for delaying organic law-making process; the structure of the legislative powers (Senate and the members of parliament); and the control of people’s basic freedoms of expression, movement and assembly in political activities. One clear consequence of the military government’s specific actions over the last three years is the increased uncertainty amongst Thai people that their fundamental freedoms and political rights will be respected in the future. This will directly affect their participation in future democratic processes. The military government’s actions (e.g. their response to the UN representatives) will also have influenced potential international engagement in Thai civil society to help educate disadvantaged people about their rights, and their participation in the political arena. These actions challenge the democratic idea that there should be a checking and balancing of power between people and government. These examples provide evidence that a democratic transition is crucial during any process of political transformation.

Keywords: political tranformation, public participation, Thailand coup d'etat 2014, election 2018

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
7050 Symbolic Partial Differential Equations Analysis Using Mathematica

Authors: Davit Shahnazaryan, Diogo Gomes, Mher Safaryan

Abstract:

Many symbolic computations and manipulations required in the analysis of partial differential equations (PDE) or systems of PDEs are tedious and error-prone. These computations arise when determining conservation laws, entropies or integral identities, which are essential tools for the study of PDEs. Here, we discuss a new Mathematica package for the symbolic analysis of PDEs that automate multiple tasks, saving time and effort. Methodologies: During the research, we have used concepts of linear algebra and partial differential equations. We have been working on creating algorithms based on theoretical mathematics to find results mentioned below. Major Findings: Our package provides the following functionalities; finding symmetry group of different PDE systems, generation of polynomials invariant with respect to different symmetry groups; simplification of integral quantities by integration by parts and null Lagrangian cleaning, computing general forms of expressions by integration by parts; finding equivalent forms of an integral expression that are simpler or more symmetric form; determining necessary and sufficient conditions on the coefficients for the positivity of a given symbolic expression. Conclusion: Using this package, we can simplify integral identities, find conserved and dissipated quantities of time-dependent PDE or system of PDEs. Some examples in the theory of mean-field games and semiconductor equations are discussed.

Keywords: partial differential equations, symbolic computation, conserved and dissipated quantities, mathematica

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
7049 Conceptual Design of a Residential House Based on IDEA 4E - Discussion of the Process of Interdisciplinary Pre-Project Research and Optimal Design Solutions Created as Part of Project-Based Learning

Authors: Dorota Winnicka-Jasłowska, Małgorzata Jastrzębska, Jan Kaczmarczyk, Beata Łaźniewska-Piekarczyk, Piotr Skóra, Beata Kobiałko, Agata Kołodziej, Błażej Mól, Ewelina Lasyk, Karolina Brzęczek, Michał Król

Abstract:

Creating economical, comfortable, and healthy buildings which respect the environment is a necessity resulting from legal regulations, but it is also a response to the expectations of a modern investor. Developing the concept of a residential house based on the 4E and the 2+2+(1) IDEAs is a complex process that requires specialist knowledge of many trades and requires adaptation of comprehensive solutions. IDEA 4E assumes the use of energy-saving, ecological, ergonomics, and economic solutions. In addition, IDEA 2+2+(1) assuming appropriate surface and functional-spatial solutions for a family at different stages of a building's life, i.e. 2, 4, or 5 members, enforces certain flexibility of the designed building, which may change with the number and age of its users. The building should therefore be easy to rearrange or expand. The task defined in this way was carried out by an interdisciplinary team of students of the Silesian University of Technology as part of PBL. The team consisted of 6 undergraduate and graduate students representing the following faculties: 3 students of architecture, 2 civil engineering students, and 1 student of environmental engineering. The work of the team was supported by 3 academic teachers representing the above-mentioned faculties and additional experts. The project was completed in one semester. The article presents the successive stages of the project. At first pre-design studies were carried out. They allowed to define the guidelines for the project. For this purpose, the "Model house" questionnaire was developed. The questions concerned determining the utility needs of a potential family that would live in a model house - specifying the types of rooms, their size, and equipment. A total of 114 people participated in the study. The answers to the questions in the survey helped to build the functional programme of the designed house. Other research consisted in the search for optimal technological and construction solutions and the most appropriate building materials based mainly on recycling. Appropriate HVAC systems responsible for the building's microclimate were also selected, i.e. low, temperature heating, mechanical ventilation, and the use of energy from renewable sources was planned so as to obtain a nearly zero-energy building. Additionally, rainwater retention and its local use were planned. The result of the project was a design of a model residential building that meets the presented assumptions. A 3D VR spatial model of the designed building and its surroundings was also made. The final result was the organization of an exhibition for students and the academic community. Participation in the interdisciplinary project allowed the project team members to better understand the consequences of the adopted solutions for achieving the assumed effect and the need to work out a compromise. The implementation of the project made all its participants aware of the importance of cooperation as well as systematic and clear communication. The need to define milestones and their consistent enforcement is an important element guaranteeing the achievement of the intended end result. The implementation of PBL enables students to the acquire competences important in their future professional work.

Keywords: architecture and urban planning, civil engineering, environmental engineering, project-based learning, sustainable building

Procedia PDF Downloads 117
7048 Performance Evaluation of Adsorption Refrigerating Systems

Authors: Nadia Allouache, Omar Rahli

Abstract:

Many promising technologies have been developed to harness the sun's energy. These technologies help in economizing energy and environmental protection. The solar refrigerating systems are one of these important technologies. In addition to environmental benefits and energy saving, adsorption refrigerating systems have many advantages such as lack of moving parts, simplicity of construction and low operating costs. The work aimed to establish the main factors that affect the performances of an adsorption refrigerating system using different geometries of adsorbers and different adsorbent-adsorbate pairs. The numerical modeling of the heat and mass transfer in the system, using various working pairs, such as: activated carbon-ammonia, calcium chlorid-ammonia, activated carbon fiber- methanol and activated carbon AC35-methanol, show that the adsorber design can influence the system performances; The thermal performances of system are better in the annular configuration case. An optimal value of generating temperature is observed in annular adsorber case for which the thermal performance of the cooling system is maximal. While in the plate adsorber, above a certain value of generating temperature, the performance of the system remains almost constant. The environmental conditions such as solar radiation and pressure have a great influence in the system efficiency, and the choice of the working pair depends on the environmental conditions and the geometry of the adsorber.

Keywords: adsorber geometry, numerical modeling, optimal environmental conditions, working pairs.

Procedia PDF Downloads 79
7047 Development of Sustainable Building Environmental Model (SBEM) in Hong Kong

Authors: Kwok W. Mui, Ling T. Wong, F. Xiao, Chin T. Cheung, Ho C. Yu

Abstract:

This study addresses a concept of the Sustainable Building Environmental Model (SBEM) developed to optimize energy consumption in air conditioning and ventilation (ACV) systems without any deterioration of indoor environmental quality (IEQ). The SBEM incorporates two main components: an adaptive comfort temperature control module (ACT) and a new carbon dioxide demand control module (nDCV). These two modules take an innovative approach to maintain satisfaction of the Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) with optimum energy consumption, they provide a rational basis of effective control. A total of 2133 sets of measurement data of indoor air temperature (Ta), relative humidity (Rh) and carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) were conducted in some Hong Kong offices to investigate the potential of integrating the SBEM. A simulation was used to evaluate the dynamic performance of the energy and air conditioning system with the integration of the SBEM in an air-conditioned building. It allows us make a clear picture of the control strategies and performed any pre-tuned of controllers before utilized in real systems. With the integration of SBEM, it was able to save up to 12.3% in simulation and 15% in field measurement of overall electricity consumption, and maintain the average carbon dioxide concentration within 1000ppm and occupant dissatisfaction in 20%.

Keywords: sustainable building environmental model (SBEM), adaptive comfort temperature (ACT), new demand control ventilation (nDCV), energy saving

Procedia PDF Downloads 636
7046 Sustainable Development of HV Substation in Urban Areas Considering Environmental Aspects

Authors: Mahdi Naeemi Nooghabi, Mohammad Tofiqu Arif

Abstract:

Gas Insulated Switchgears by using an insulation material named SF6 (Sulphur Hexafluoride) and its significant dielectric properties have been the only choice in urban areas and other polluted industries. However, the initial investment of GIS is more than conventional AIS substation, its total life cycle costs caused to reach huge amounts of electrical market share. SF6 environmental impacts on global warming, atmosphere depletion, and decomposing to toxic gases in high temperature situation, and highest rate in Global Warming Potential (GWP) with 23900 times of CO2e and a 3200-year period lifetime was the only undeniable concern of GIS substation. Efforts of international environmental institute and their politic supports have been able to lead SF6 emission reduction legislation. This research targeted to find an appropriate alternative for GIS substations to meet all advantages in land occupation area and to improve SF6 environmental impacts due to its leakage and emission. An innovative new conceptual design named Multi-Storey prepared a new AIS design similar in land occupation, extremely low Sf6 emission, and maximum greenhouse gas emission reduction. Surprisingly, by considering economic benefits due to carbon price saving, it can earn more than $675 million during the 30-year life cycle by replacing of just 25% of total annual worldly additional GIS switchgears.

Keywords: AIS substation, GIS substation, SF6, greenhouse gas, global warming potential, carbon price, emission

Procedia PDF Downloads 307
7045 Artificial Intelligence for Generative Modelling

Authors: Shryas Bhurat, Aryan Vashistha, Sampreet Dinakar Nayak, Ayush Gupta

Abstract:

As the technology is advancing more towards high computational resources, there is a paradigm shift in the usage of these resources to optimize the design process. This paper discusses the usage of ‘Generative Design using Artificial Intelligence’ to build better models that adapt the operations like selection, mutation, and crossover to generate results. The human mind thinks of the simplest approach while designing an object, but the intelligence learns from the past & designs the complex optimized CAD Models. Generative Design takes the boundary conditions and comes up with multiple solutions with iterations to come up with a sturdy design with the most optimal parameter that is given, saving huge amounts of time & resources. The new production techniques that are at our disposal allow us to use additive manufacturing, 3D printing, and other innovative manufacturing techniques to save resources and design artistically engineered CAD Models. Also, this paper discusses the Genetic Algorithm, the Non-Domination technique to choose the right results using biomimicry that has evolved for current habitation for millions of years. The computer uses parametric models to generate newer models using an iterative approach & uses cloud computing to store these iterative designs. The later part of the paper compares the topology optimization technology with Generative Design that is previously being used to generate CAD Models. Finally, this paper shows the performance of algorithms and how these algorithms help in designing resource-efficient models.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, bio mimicry, generative modeling, non-dominant techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
7044 Smart Energy Storage: W₁₈O₄₉ NW/Ti₃C₂Tₓ Composite-Enabled All Solid State Flexible Electrochromic Supercapacitors

Authors: Muhammad Hassan, Kemal Celebi

Abstract:

Developing a highly efficient electrochromic energy storage device with sufficient color fluctuation and significant electrochemical performance is highly desirable for practical energy-saving applications. Here, to achieve a highly stable material with a large electrochemical storage capacity, a W₁₈O₄₉ NW/Ti₃C₂Tₓ composite has been fabricated and deposited on a pre-assembled Ag and W₁₈O₄₉ NW conductive network by Langmuir-Blodgett technique. The resulting hybrid electrode composed of 15 layers of W₁₈O₄₉ NW/Ti₃C₂Tₓ exhibits an areal capacitance of 125 mF/cm², with a fast and reversible switching response. An optical modulation of 98.2% can be maintained at a current density of 5 mAcm⁻². Using this electrode, we fabricated a bifunctional symmetric electrochromic supercapacitor device having an energy density of 10.26 μWh/cm² and a power density of 0.605 mW/cm², with high capacity retention and full columbic efficiency over 4000 charge-discharge cycles. Meanwhile, the device displays remarkable electrochromic characteristics, including fast switching time (5 s for coloring and 7 s for bleaching) and a significant coloration efficiency of 116 cm²/C with good optical modulation stability. In addition, the device exhibits remarkable mechanical flexibility and fast switching while being stable over 100 bending cycles, which is promising for real-world applications.

Keywords: MXene, nanowires, supercapacitor, ion diffusion, electrochromic, coloration efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 79
7043 Modelling Pest Immigration into Rape Seed Crops under Past and Future Climate Conditions

Authors: M. Eickermann, F. Ronellenfitsch, J. Junk

Abstract:

Oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) is one of the most important crops throughout Europe, but pressure due to pest insects and pathogens can reduce yield amount substantially. Therefore, the usage of pesticide applications is outstanding in this crop. In addition, climate change effects can interact with phenology of the host plant and their pests and can apply additional pressure on the yield. Next to the pollen beetle, Meligethes aeneus L., the seed-damaging pest insects, cabbage seed weevil (Ceutorhynchus obstrictus Marsham) and the brassica pod midge (Dasineura brassicae Winn.) are of main economic impact to the yield. While females of C. obstrictus are infesting oilseed rape by depositing single eggs into young pods, the females of D. brassicae are using this local damage in the pod for their own oviposition, while depositing batches of 20-30 eggs. Without a former infestation by the cabbage seed weevil, a significant yield reduction by the brassica pod midge can be denied. Based on long-term, multisided field experiments, a comprehensive data-set on pest migration to crops of B. napus has been built up in the last ten years. Five observational test sides, situated in different climatic regions in Luxembourg were controlled between February until the end of May twice a week. Pest migration was recorded by using yellow water pan-traps. Caught insects were identified in the laboratory according to species specific identification keys. By a combination of pest observations and corresponding meteorological observations, the set-up of models to predict the migration periods of the seed-damaging pests was possible. This approach is the basis for a computer-based decision support tool, to assist the farmer in identifying the appropriate time point of pesticide application. In addition, the derived algorithms of that decision support tool can be combined with climate change projections in order to assess the future potential threat caused by the seed-damaging pest species. Regional climate change effects for Luxembourg have been intensively studied in recent years. Significant changes to wetter winters and drier summers, as well as a prolongation of the vegetation period mainly caused by higher spring temperature, have also been reported. We used the COSMO-CLM model to perform a time slice experiment for Luxembourg with a spatial resolution of 1.3 km. Three ten year time slices were calculated: The reference time span (1991-2000), the near (2041-2050) and the far future (2091-2100). Our results projected a significant shift of pest migration to an earlier onset of the year. In addition, a prolongation of the possible migration period could be observed. Because D. brassiace is depending on the former oviposition activity by C. obstrictus to infest its host plant successfully, the future dependencies of both pest species will be assessed. Based on this approach the future risk potential of both seed-damaging pests is calculated and the status as pest species is characterized.

Keywords: CORDEX projections, decision support tool, Brassica napus, pests

Procedia PDF Downloads 382
7042 Regional Competitiveness and Innovation in the Tourism Sector: A Systematic Review and Bibliometric Analysis

Authors: Sérgio J. Teixeira, João J. Ferreira

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Tourism frequently gets identified as one of the sectors with the greatest potential for expansion on a global scale and hence conveying the importance of attempting to better understand the regional factors of competitiveness prevailing in this sector. This study’s objective essentially strives to provide a mapping of the scientific publications and the intellectual knowledge therein contained while conveying past research trends and identifying potential future lines of research in the fields of regional competitiveness and tourism innovation. This correspondingly deploys a systematic review of the literature in keeping with the bibliometric approach based upon VOSviewer software, with a particular focus on drafting maps for visualising the underlying intellectual structure. This type of analysis encapsulates the number of articles published and their annual number of citations for the period between 1900 and 2016 as registered by the Web of Science database. The results demonstrate how the intellectual structure on regional competitiveness divides essentially into three major categories: regional competitiveness, tourism innovation, and tourism clusters. Thus, the main contribution of this study arises out of identifying the main research trends in this field and the respective shortcomings and specific needs for future scientific research in the field of regional competitiveness and innovation in tourism.

Keywords: regional competitiveness, tourism cluster, bibliometric studies, tourism innovation, systematic review

Procedia PDF Downloads 234
7041 Traffic Analysis and Prediction Using Closed-Circuit Television Systems

Authors: Aragorn Joaquin Pineda Dela Cruz

Abstract:

Road traffic congestion is continually deteriorating in Hong Kong. The largest contributing factor is the increase in vehicle fleet size, resulting in higher competition over the utilisation of road space. This study proposes a project that can process closed-circuit television images and videos to provide real-time traffic detection and prediction capabilities. Specifically, a deep-learning model involving computer vision techniques for video and image-based vehicle counting, then a separate model to detect and predict traffic congestion levels based on said data. State-of-the-art object detection models such as You Only Look Once and Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Networks are tested and compared on closed-circuit television data from various major roads in Hong Kong. It is then used for training in long short-term memory networks to be able to predict traffic conditions in the near future, in an effort to provide more precise and quicker overviews of current and future traffic conditions relative to current solutions such as navigation apps.

Keywords: intelligent transportation system, vehicle detection, traffic analysis, deep learning, machine learning, computer vision, traffic prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 103
7040 Railway Composite Flooring Design: Numerical Simulation and Experimental Studies

Authors: O. Lopez, F. Pedro, A. Tadeu, J. Antonio, A. Coelho

Abstract:

The future of the railway industry lies in the innovation of lighter, more efficient and more sustainable trains. Weight optimizations in railway vehicles allow reducing power consumption and CO₂ emissions, increasing the efficiency of the engines and the maximum speed reached. Additionally, they reduce wear of wheels and rails, increase the space available for passengers, etc. Among the various systems that integrate railway interiors, the flooring system is one which has greater impact both on passenger safety and comfort, as well as on the weight of the interior systems. Due to the high weight saving potential, relative high mechanical resistance, good acoustic and thermal performance, ease of modular design, cost-effectiveness and long life, the use of new sustainable composite materials and panels provide the latest innovations for competitive solutions in the development of flooring systems. However, one of the main drawbacks of the flooring systems is their relatively poor resistance to point loads. Point loads in railway interiors can be caused by passengers or by components fixed to the flooring system, such as seats and restraint systems, handrails, etc. In this way, they can originate higher fatigue solicitations under service loads or zones with high stress concentrations under exceptional loads (higher longitudinal, transverse and vertical accelerations), thus reducing its useful life. Therefore, to verify all the mechanical and functional requirements of the flooring systems, many physical prototypes would be created during the design phase, with all of the high costs associated with it. Nowadays, the use of virtual prototyping methods by computer-aided design (CAD) and computer-aided engineering (CAE) softwares allow validating a product before committing to making physical test prototypes. The scope of this work was to current computer tools and integrate the processes of innovation, development, and manufacturing to reduce the time from design to finished product and optimise the development of the product for higher levels of performance and reliability. In this case, the mechanical response of several sandwich panels with different cores, polystyrene foams, and composite corks, were assessed, to optimise the weight and the mechanical performance of a flooring solution for railways. Sandwich panels with aluminum face sheets were tested to characterise its mechanical performance and determine the polystyrene foam and cork properties when used as inner cores. Then, a railway flooring solution was fully modelled (including the elastomer pads to provide the required vibration isolation from the car body) and perform structural simulations using FEM analysis to comply all the technical product specifications for the supply of a flooring system. Zones with high stress concentrations are studied and tested. The influence of vibration modes on the comfort level and stability is discussed. The information obtained with the computer tools was then completed with several mechanical tests performed on some solutions, and on specific components. The results of the numerical simulations and experimental campaign carried out are presented in this paper. This research work was performed as part of the POCI-01-0247-FEDER-003474 (coMMUTe) Project funded by Portugal 2020 through COMPETE 2020.

Keywords: cork agglomerate core, mechanical performance, numerical simulation, railway flooring system

Procedia PDF Downloads 180
7039 Identifying the Malaysian Perception on the Self-Build Home Concept: Provision of Affordable Housing for MIG

Authors: N. M. Tawil, A. R. Musa, A. I Che-Ani, H. Basri

Abstract:

It is known that rising of house prices recently has affected the home ownership, especially for the future. Hence to overcome the rose of housing prices, the self-build home or DIY concept is perceived as one of the solution. This concept is proposed to be implemented for the future housing design as a strategy in helping the government to provide affordable housing, especially for middle income group to own a landed housing property. This concept is expected to offer a lower housing price for middle-income buyers and provide an opportunity for buyers to design their dream’s home with the self-build home or 'Do It Yourself' (DIY) concept. In order to implement this concept as affordable housing for MIG, the public perceptions and acceptances on the self-build home/ DIY concept itself should be identified. To achieve this aim this study was conducted by using 2 method namely literature review and questionnaire survey. The questionnaire survey was distributed to 200 respondents randomly in Lembah Klang and were analysed through the SPSS program. The results show that respondents are very interested in buying a home that they can have with the appropriate size of the home. Average of them known about Do It Yourself (DIY) concept but none of respondent have implement this concept. Most of respondents were agreed that this DIY method suitable to be implemented in the housing industry in Malaysia and they were agreed that this concept can offer a cheaper housing price because the construction costs were reduced. Moreover by providing a basic home the owner can renovate their home according to their need and financial capability.

Keywords: affordable housing, Do It Yourself, self-Built home, perception, middle income group

Procedia PDF Downloads 416
7038 Sorghum Resilience and Sustainability under Limiting and Non-limiting Conditions of Water and Nitrogen

Authors: Muhammad Tanveer Altaf, Mehmet Bedir, Waqas Liaqat, Gönül Cömertpay, Volkan Çatalkaya, Celaluddin Barutçular, Nergiz Çoban, Ibrahim Cerit, Muhammad Azhar Nadeem, Tolga Karaköy, Faheem Shehzad Baloch

Abstract:

Food production needs to be almost double by 2050 in order to feed around 9 billion people around the Globe. Plant production mostly relies on fertilizers, which also have one of the main roles in environmental pollution. In addition to this, climatic conditions are unpredictable, and the earth is expected to face severe drought conditions in the future. Therefore, water and fertilizers, especially nitrogen are considered as main constraints for future food security. To face these challenges, developing integrative approaches for germplasm characterization and selecting the resilient genotypes performing under limiting conditions is very crucial for effective breeding to meet the food requirement under climatic change scenarios. This study is part of the European Research Area Network (ERANET) project for the characterization of the diversity panel of 172 sorghum accessions and six hybrids as control cultivars under limiting (+N/-H2O, -N/+H2O) and non-limiting conditions (+N+H2O). This study was planned to characterize the sorghum diversity in relation to resource Use Efficiency (RUE), with special attention on harnessing the interaction between genotype and environment (GxE) from a physiological and agronomic perspective. Experiments were conducted at Adana, a Mediterranean climate, with augmented design, and data on various agronomic and physiological parameters were recorded. Plentiful diversity was observed in the sorghum diversity panel and significant variations were seen among the limiting water and nitrogen conditions in comparison with the control experiment. Potential genotypes with the best performance are identified under limiting conditions. Whole genome resequencing was performed for whole germplasm under investigation for diversity analysis. GWAS analysis will be performed using genotypic and phenotypic data and linked markers will be identified. The results of this study will show the adaptation and improvement of sorghum under climate change conditions for future food security.

Keywords: germplasm, sorghum, drought, nitrogen, resources use efficiency, sequencing

Procedia PDF Downloads 77
7037 Evaluation of Energy Efficiency Development Perspectives in Lithuanian Furniture Industry

Authors: J. Vasauskaite

Abstract:

From the perspective of Lithuanian furniture enterprises, the role of energy efficiency is significant as it leads to direct economic benefits, increased competitiveness and higher productivity. There are various possible improvements in energy efficiency in industry: changes in the production process, investment in R&D, implementation of energy-saving technologies or energy management systems. The research aims to contribute the understanding of energy efficiency importance in industry by presenting possible improvements of energy use in different manufacturing process of enterprises. The evaluation methodology included quantitative and qualitative research methods: the comparative and statistical analysis of primary and secondary sources of information. This paper provides the detailed analysis of the energy efficiency development opportunities and challenges in Lithuanian furniture industry. The results of the study show the importance of technological innovations, energy efficiency policies and environmental management strategies in developing energy efficiency within the wood and furniture industry. The analysis of energy efficiency development in Lithuanian furniture industry showed that the industrial activities are influenced by various internal and external factors such as increasing flows of products, human resources and overall management decisions; dynamic growth and increasing competition; emerging need for environmental information. In the light of these factors, Lithuanian furniture industry has undergone significant changes – restructuring, technological advances and business model innovations, allowing it to be more export-oriented and focus on upgrading quality, design and innovation.

Keywords: energy efficiency, energy policy, furniture industry, technological innovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 510
7036 Biochemical Approach to Renewable Energy: Enhancing Students' Perception and Understanding of Science of Energy through Integrated Hands-On Laboratory

Authors: Samina Yasmin, Anzar Khaliq, Zareen Tabassum

Abstract:

Acute power shortage in Pakistan requires an urgent attention to take preliminary steps to spread energy awareness at all levels. One such initiative is taken at Habib University (HU), Pakistan, through renewable energy course, one of the core offerings, where students are trained to investigate various aspects of renewable energy concepts. The course is offered to all freshmen enrolled at HU regardless of their academic backgrounds and degree programs. A four-credit modular course includes both theory and laboratory elements. Hands-on laboratories play an important role in science classes, particularly to enhance the motivation and deep understanding of energy science. A set of selected hands-on activities included in course introduced students to explore the latest developments in the field of renewable energy such as dye-sensitized solar cells, gas chromatography, global warming, climate change, fuel cell energy and power of biomass etc. These projects not only helped HU freshmen to build on energy fundamentals but also provided them greater confidence in investigating, questioning and experimenting with renewable energy related conceptions. A feedback survey arranged during and end of term revealed the effectiveness of the hands-on laboratory to enhance the common understanding of real world problems related to energy such as awareness of energy saving, the level of concern about global climate change, environmental pollution and science of energy behind the energy usage.

Keywords: biochemical approaches, energy curriculum, hands-on laboratory, renewable energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 257
7035 Autonomic Sonar Sensor Fault Manager for Mobile Robots

Authors: Martin Doran, Roy Sterritt, George Wilkie

Abstract:

NASA, ESA, and NSSC space agencies have plans to put planetary rovers on Mars in 2020. For these future planetary rovers to succeed, they will heavily depend on sensors to detect obstacles. This will also become of vital importance in the future, if rovers become less dependent on commands received from earth-based control and more dependent on self-configuration and self-decision making. These planetary rovers will face harsh environments and the possibility of hardware failure is high, as seen in missions from the past. In this paper, we focus on using Autonomic principles where self-healing, self-optimization, and self-adaption are explored using the MAPE-K model and expanding this model to encapsulate the attributes such as Awareness, Analysis, and Adjustment (AAA-3). In the experimentation, a Pioneer P3-DX research robot is used to simulate a planetary rover. The sonar sensors on the P3-DX robot are used to simulate the sensors on a planetary rover (even though in reality, sonar sensors cannot operate in a vacuum). Experiments using the P3-DX robot focus on how our software system can be adapted with the loss of sonar sensor functionality. The autonomic manager system is responsible for the decision making on how to make use of remaining ‘enabled’ sonars sensors to compensate for those sonar sensors that are ‘disabled’. The key to this research is that the robot can still detect objects even with reduced sonar sensor capability.

Keywords: autonomic, self-adaption, self-healing, self-optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 350
7034 Determination of Failure Modes of Screwed Connections in Cold-Formed Steel Structures

Authors: Mahyar Maali, Merve Sagiroglu

Abstract:

Steel, which is one of the base materials we prefer in the building construction, is the material with the highest ratio to weight of carrying capacity. Due to the carrying capacity, lighter and better quality steel in smaller sections and sizes has recently been used as a frame system in cold-formed steel structures. While light steel elements used as secondary frame elements during the past, they have nowadays started to be preferred as the main frame in low/middle story buildings and detached houses with advantages such as quick and easy installation, time-saving, and small amount of scrap. It is also economically ideal because the weight of structure is lighter than other steel profiles. Structural performances and failure modes of cold-formed structures are different from conventional ones due to their thin-walled structures. One of the most important elements of light steel structures to ensure stability is the connection. The screwed connections, which have self-drilling properties with special drilling tools, are widely used in the installation of cold-formed profiles. The length of the screw is selected according to the total thickness of the elements after the screw thickness is determined according to the elements of connections. The thickness of the material depends on the length of the drilling portion at the end of the screw. The shear tests of plates connected with self-drilling screws are carried out depending on the screw length, and their failure modes were evaluated in this study.

Keywords: cold-formed steel, screwed connection, connection, screw length

Procedia PDF Downloads 178
7033 Multi-Objective Optimization of a Solar-Powered Triple-Effect Absorption Chiller for Air-Conditioning Applications

Authors: Ali Shirazi, Robert A. Taylor, Stephen D. White, Graham L. Morrison

Abstract:

In this paper, a detailed simulation model of a solar-powered triple-effect LiBr–H2O absorption chiller is developed to supply both cooling and heating demand of a large-scale building, aiming to reduce the fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in building sector. TRNSYS 17 is used to simulate the performance of the system over a typical year. A combined energetic-economic-environmental analysis is conducted to determine the system annual primary energy consumption and the total cost, which are considered as two conflicting objectives. A multi-objective optimization of the system is performed using a genetic algorithm to minimize these objectives simultaneously. The optimization results show that the final optimal design of the proposed plant has a solar fraction of 72% and leads to an annual primary energy saving of 0.69 GWh and annual CO2 emissions reduction of ~166 tonnes, as compared to a conventional HVAC system. The economics of this design, however, is not appealing without public funding, which is often the case for many renewable energy systems. The results show that a good funding policy is required in order for these technologies to achieve satisfactory payback periods within the lifetime of the plant.

Keywords: economic, environmental, multi-objective optimization, solar air-conditioning, triple-effect absorption chiller

Procedia PDF Downloads 239
7032 Towards Developing Social Assessment Tool for Siwan Ecolodge Case Study: Babenshal Ecolodge

Authors: Amr Ali Bayoumi, Ola Ali Bayoumi

Abstract:

The aim of this research is enhancing one of the main aspects (Social Aspect) for developing an eco-lodge in Siwa oasis in Egyptian Western Desert. According to credible weightings built in this research through formal and informal questionnaires, the researcher detected one of the highest credible aspects, 'Social Aspect': through which it carries the maximum priorities among the total environmental and economic categories. From here, the researcher suggested the usage of ethnographic design approach and Space Syntax as observational and computational methods for developing future Eco-lodge in Siwa Oasis. These methods are used to study social spaces of Babenshal eco-lodge as a case study. This hybrid method is considered as a beginning of building Social Assessment Tool (SAT) for ecological tourism buildings located in Siwa as a case of Egyptian Western desert community. Towards livable social spaces, the proposed SAT was planned to be the optimum measurable weightings for social aspect's priorities of future Siwan eco-lodge(s). Finally, recommendations are proposed for enhancing SAT to be more correlated with sensitive desert biome (Siwa Oasis) to be adapted with the continuous social and environmental changes of the oasis.

Keywords: ecolodge, social aspect, space syntax, Siwa Oasis

Procedia PDF Downloads 128
7031 Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of Upper Guder Catchment, Upper Blue Nile

Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

Abstract:

Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

Procedia PDF Downloads 365
7030 Current Zonal Isolation Regulation and Standards: A Compare and Contrast Review in Plug and Abandonment

Authors: Z. A. Al Marhoon, H. S. Al Ramis, C. Teodoriu

Abstract:

Well-integrity is one of the major elements considered for drilling geothermal, oil, and gas wells. Well-integrity is minimizing the risk of unplanned fluid flow in the well bore throughout the well lifetime. Well integrity is maximized by applying technical concepts along with practical practices and strategic planning. These practices are usually governed by standardization and regulation entities. Practices during well construction can affect the integrity of the seal at the time of abandonment. On the other hand, achieving a perfect barrier system is impracticable due to the needed cost. This results in a needed balance between regulations requirements and practical applications. The guidelines are only effective when they are attainable in practical applications. Various governmental regulations and international standards have different guidelines on what constitutes high-quality isolation from unwanted flow. Each regulating or standardization body differ in requirements based on the abandonment objective. Some regulation account more for the environmental impact, water table contamination, and possible leaks. Other regulation might lean towards driving more economical benefits while achieving an acceptable isolation criteria. The research methodology used in this topic is derived from a literature review method combined with a compare and contrast analysis. The literature review on various zonal isolation regulations and standards has been conducted. A review includes guidelines from NORSOK (Norwegian governing entity), BSEE (USA offshore governing entity), API (American Petroleum Institute) combined with ISO (International Standardization Organization). The compare and contrast analysis is conducted by assessing the objective of each abandonment regulations and standardization. The current state of well barrier regulation is in balancing action. From one side of this balance, the environmental impact and complete zonal isolation is considered. The other side of the scale is practical application and associated cost. Some standards provide a fair amount of details concerning technical requirements and are often flexible with the needed associated cost. These guidelines cover environmental impact with laws that prevent major or disastrous environmental effects of improper sealing of wells. Usually these regulations are concerned with the near future of sealing rather than long-term. Consequently, applying these guidelines become more feasible from a cost point of view to the required plugging entities. On the other hand, other regulation have well integrity procedures and regulations that lean toward more restrictions environmentally with an increased associated cost requirements. The environmental impact is detailed and covered with its entirety, including medium to small environmental impact in barrier installing operations. Clear and precise attention to long-term leakage prevention is present in these regulations. The result of the compare and contrast analysis of the literature showed that there are various objectives that might tip the scale from one side of the balance (cost) to the other (sealing quality) especially in reference to zonal isolation. Furthermore, investing in initial well construction is a crucial part of ensuring safe final well abandonment. The safety and the cost saving at the end of the well life cycle is dependent upon a well-constructed isolation systems at the beginning of the life cycle. Long term studies on zonal isolation using various hydraulic or mechanical materials need to take place to further assess permanently abandoned wells to achieve the desired balance. Well drilling and isolation techniques will be more effective when they are operationally feasible and have reasonable associated cost to aid the local economy.

Keywords: plug and abandon, P&A regulation, P&A standards, international guidelines, gap analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
7029 Exploring the Relationship Between Past and Present Reviews: The Influence of User Generated Content on Future Hotel Guest Experience Perceptions

Authors: Sacha Joseph-Mathews, Leili Javadpour

Abstract:

In the tourism industry, hoteliers spend millions annually on marketing and positioning efforts for their respective hotels, all in an effort to create a specific image in the minds of the consumer. Yet despite extensive efforts to seduce potential hotel guests with sophisticated advertising messages generated by hotel entities, consumers continue to mistrust corporate branding, preferring instead to place their trust in the reviews of their consumer peers. In today’s complex and cluttered marketplace, online reviews can serve as a mediator for consumers who do not have actual knowledge and experiences with the brand, but are in the process of deciding whether or not to engage in a consumption exercise. Traditionally, consumers have used online reviews as a source of comfort and confirmation of a product/service’s positioning. But today, very few customers make any purchase decisions without first researching existing user reviews, making reviews more of a necessity, rather than a luxury in the purchase decision process. The influence of user generated content (UGC) is amplified in the tourism industry; as more than a third of potential hotel guests will not book a room without first reading a review. As corporate branding becomes less relevant and online reviews become more important, how much of the consumer’s stay expectations are being dictated by existing UGC? Moreover, as hotel guest experience a hotel through the lens of an existing review, how much of their stay and in turn their review, would have been influenced by those reviews that they read? Ultimately, there is the potential for UGC to dictate what potential guests will be most critical about, and or most focused on during their stay. If UGC is a stronger influencer in the purchase decision process than corporate branding, doesn’t it have the potential to dictate, the entire stay experience by influencing the expectations of the guest prior to them arriving on the property? For example, if a hotel is an eco-destination and they focus their branding on their website around sustainability and the retreat nature of the hotel. Yet, guest reviews constantly discuss how dissatisfactory the service and food was with no mention of nature or sustainability, will future reviews then focus primarily on the food? Using text analysis software to examine over 25,000 online reviews, we explore the extent to which new reviews are influenced by wording used in previous reviews for a hotel property, versus content generated by corporate positioning. Additionally, we investigate how distinct hotel related UGC is across different types of tourism destinations. Our findings suggest that UGC can have a greater impact on future reviews, than corporate branding and there is more cohesiveness across UGC of different types of hotel properties than anticipated. A model of User Generated Content Influence is presented and the managerial impact of the power of online reviews to trump corporate branding and shape future user experiences is discussed.

Keywords: user generated content, UGC, corporate branding, online reviews, hotels and tourism

Procedia PDF Downloads 96
7028 Regular or Irregular: An Investigation of Medicine Consumption Pattern with Poisson Mixture Model

Authors: Lichung Jen, Yi Chun Liu, Kuan-Wei Lee

Abstract:

Fruitful data has been accumulated in database nowadays and is commonly used as support for decision-making. In the healthcare industry, hospital, for instance, ordering pharmacy inventory is one of the key decision. With large drug inventory, the current cost increases and its expiration dates might lead to future issue, such as drug disposal and recycle. In contrast, underestimating demand of the pharmacy inventory, particularly standing drugs, affects the medical treatment and possibly hospital reputation. Prescription behaviour of hospital physicians is one of the critical factor influencing this decision, particularly irregular prescription behaviour. If a drug’s usage amount in the month is irregular and less than the regular usage, it may cause the trend of subsequent stockpiling. On the contrary, if a drug has been prescribed often than expected, it may result in insufficient inventory. We proposed a hierarchical Bayesian mixture model with two components to identify physicians’ regular/irregular prescription patterns with probabilities. Heterogeneity of hospital is considered in our proposed hierarchical Bayes model. The result suggested that modeling the prescription patterns of physician is beneficial for estimating the order quantity of medication and pharmacy inventory management of the hospital. Managerial implication and future research are discussed.

Keywords: hierarchical Bayesian model, poission mixture model, medicines prescription behavior, irregular behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 128