Search results for: family tree
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3967

Search results for: family tree

3007 Key Findings on Rapid Syntax Screening Test for Children

Authors: Shyamani Hettiarachchi, Thilini Lokubalasuriya, Shakeela Saleem, Dinusha Nonis, Isuru Dharmaratne, Lakshika Udugama

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Introduction: Late identification of language difficulties in children could result in long-term negative consequences for communication, literacy and self-esteem. This highlights the need for early identification and intervention for speech, language and communication difficulties. Speech and language therapy is a relatively new profession in Sri Lanka and at present, there are no formal standardized screening tools to assess language skills in Sinhala-speaking children. The development and validation of a short, accurate screening tool to enable the identification of children with syntactic difficulties in Sinhala is a current need. Aims: 1) To develop test items for a Sinhala Syntactic Structures (S3 Short Form) test on children aged between 3;0 to 5;0 years 2) To validate the test of Sinhala Syntactic Structures (S3 Short Form) on children aged between 3; 0 to 5; 0 years Methods: The Sinhala Syntactic Structures (S3 Short Form) was devised based on the Renfrew Action Picture Test. As Sinhala contains post-positions in contrast to English, the principles of the Renfrew Action Picture Test were followed to gain an information score and a grammar score but the test devised reflected the linguistic-specificity and complexity of Sinhala and the pictures were in keeping with the culture of the country. This included the dative case marker ‘to give something to her’ (/ejɑ:ʈə/ meaning ‘to her’), the instrumental case marker ‘to get something from’ (/ejɑ:gən/ meaning ‘from him’ or /gɑhən/ meaning ‘from the tree’), possessive noun (/ɑmmɑge:/ meaning ‘mother’s’ or /gɑhe:/ meaning ‘of the tree’ or /male:/ meaning ‘of the flower’) and plural markers (/bɑllɑ:/ bɑllo:/ meaning ‘dog/dogs’, /mɑlə/mɑl/ meaning ‘flower/flowers’, /gɑsə/gɑs/ meaning ‘tree/trees’ and /wɑlɑ:kulə/wɑlɑ:kulu/ meaning ‘cloud/clouds’). The picture targets included socio-culturally appropriate scenes of the Sri Lankan New Year celebration, elephant procession and the Buddhist ‘Wesak’ ceremony. The test was piloted with a group of 60 participants and necessary changes made. In phase 1, the test was administered to 100 Sinhala-speaking children aged between 3; 0 and 5; 0 years in one district. In this presentation on phase 2, the test was administered to another 100 Sinhala-speaking children aged between 3; 0 to 5; 0 in three districts. In phase 2, the selection of the test items was assessed via measures of content validity, test-retest reliability and inter-rater reliability. The age of acquisition of each syntactic structure was determined using content and grammar scores which were statistically analysed using t-tests and one-way ANOVAs. Results: High percentage agreement was found on test-retest reliability on content validity and Pearson correlation measures and on inter-rater reliability. As predicted, there was a statistically significant influence of age on the production of syntactic structures at p<0.05. Conclusions: As the target test items included generated the information and the syntactic structures expected, the test could be used as a quick syntactic screening tool with preschool children.

Keywords: Sinhala, screening, syntax, language

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3006 Rapid Situation Assessment of Family Planning in Pakistan: Exploring Barriers and Realizing Opportunities

Authors: Waqas Abrar

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Background: Pakistan is confronted with a formidable challenge to increase uptake of modern contraceptive methods. USAID, through its flagship Maternal and Child Survival Program (MCSP), in Pakistan is determined to support provincial Departments of Health and Population Welfare to increase the country's contraceptive prevalence rates (CPR) in Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan to achieve FP2020 goals. To inform program design and planning, a Rapid Situation Assessment (RSA) of family planning was carried out in Rawalpindi and Lahore districts in Punjab and Karachi district in Sindh. Methodology: The methodology consisted of comprehensive desk review of available literature and used a qualitative approach comprising of in-depth interviews (IDIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs). FGDs were conducted with community women, men, and mothers-in-law whereas IDIs were conducted with health facility in-charges/chiefs, healthcare providers, and community health workers. Results: Some of the oft-quoted reasons captured during desk review included poor quality of care at public sector facilities, affordability and accessibility in rural communities and providers' technical incompetence. Moreover, providers had inadequate knowledge of contraceptive methods and lacked counseling techniques; thereby, leading to dissatisfied clients and hence, discontinuation of contraceptive methods. These dissatisfied clients spread the myths and misconceptions about contraceptives in their respective communities which seriously damages community-level family planning efforts. Private providers were found reluctant to insert Intrauterine Contraceptive Devices (IUCDs) due to inadequate knowledge vis-à-vis post insertion issues/side effects. FGDs and IDIs unveiled multi-faceted reasons for poor contraceptives uptake. It was found that low education and socio-economic levels lead to low contraceptives uptake and mostly uneducated women rely on condoms provided by Lady Health Workers (LHWs). Providers had little or no knowledge about postpartum family planning or lactational amenorrhea. At community level family planning counseling sessions organized by LHWs and Male Mobilizers do not sensitize community men on permissibility of contraception in Islam. Many women attributed their physical ailments to the use of contraceptives. Lack of in-service training, job-aids and Information, Education and Communications (IEC) materials at facilities seriously comprise the quality of care in effective family planning service delivery. This is further compounded by frequent stock-outs of contraceptives at public healthcare facilities, poor data quality, false reporting, lack of data verification systems and follow-up. Conclusions: Some key conclusions from this assessment included capacity building of healthcare providers on long acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs) which give women contraception for a longer period. Secondly, capacity building of healthcare providers on postpartum family planning is an enormous challenge that can be best addressed through institutionalization. Thirdly, Providers should be equipped with counseling skills and techniques including inculcation of pros and cons of all contraceptive methods. Fourthly, printed materials such as job-aids and Information, Education and Communications (IEC) materials should be disseminated among healthcare providers and clients. These concluding statements helped MCSP to make informed decisions with regard to setting broad objectives of project and were duly approved by USAID.

Keywords: capacity building, contraceptive prevalence rate, family planning, Institutionalization, Pakistan, postpartum care, postpartum family planning services

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3005 Analyzing Habits of Brushing Teeth in Yuzawa Town, Japan

Authors: Takeo Shibata, Arihito Endo, Akemi Kunimatsu, Chika Hiraga, Yoko Shimizu

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Introduction: Yuzawa Town, located in the Niigata prefecture of Japan, is famous for its hot springs. A health promotion program, Yuzawa family health plan, was initiated in 2002. It has been held for fifteen years. We evaluated the profiles of brushing teeth in adults. Subjects: 368 questionnaires were corrected from people who live in Yuzawa town. The range of age was between nineteen and sixty-four years old. Methods: Mann-Whitney’s U test and Kruskal-Wallis test were used to evaluate significant differences in frequencies of brushing teeth per a day. Chi-square test and the adjusted residuals were used to evaluate when they brush their teeth. Results: Women showed greater frequencies of brushing teeth per a day than men. No difference was shown by age. Construction workers showed fewer frequencies of brushing teeth. Specialized technicians, clerical workers, and housewives showed greater frequencies. People who know Yuzawa family health plan, take a regular life, or take a breakfast every day showed greater frequencies. People who think not healthy, don’t care a balance of foods, don’t take yearly health check-up, or smoke showed fewer frequencies. After breakfast, women and specialized technicians showed greater frequencies, and construction workers and self-employed workers showed fewer frequencies. After lunch, clerical workers and specialized technicians showed greater frequencies. There was no significant difference at after waking up, after dinner, and before going to bed. Construction workers showed a lower rate of having a marital partner and having information of health. Conclusion: Gender and occupational differences were shown in frequencies of brushing teeth per a day. A promotion of teeth brushing for male, especially construction workers and self-employed workers, is needed.

Keywords: health promotion, Yuzawa family health plan, brushing teeth, occupational difference

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3004 Oil-Oil Correlation Using Polar and Non-Polar Fractions of Crude Oil: A Case Study in Iranian Oil Fields

Authors: Morteza Taherinezhad, Ahmad Reza Rabbani, Morteza Asemani, Rudy Swennen

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Oil-oil correlation is one of the most important issues in geochemical studies that enables to classify oils genetically. Oil-oil correlation is generally estimated based on non-polar fractions of crude oil (e.g., saturate and aromatic compounds). Despite several advantages, the drawback of using these compounds is their susceptibility of being affected by secondary processes. The polar fraction of crude oil (e.g., asphaltenes) has similar characteristics to kerogen, and this structural similarity is preserved during migration, thermal maturation, biodegradation, and water washing. Therefore, these structural characteristics can be considered as a useful correlation parameter, and it can be concluded that asphaltenes from different reservoirs with the same genetic signatures have a similar origin. Hence in this contribution, an integrated study by using both non-polar and polar fractions of oil was performed to use the merits of both fractions. Therefore, five oil samples from oil fields in the Persian Gulf were studied. Structural characteristics of extracted asphaltenes were investigated by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. Graphs based on aliphatic and aromatic compounds (predominant compounds in asphaltenes structure) and sulphoxide and carbonyl functional groups (which are representatives of sulphur and oxygen abundance in asphaltenes) were used for comparison of asphaltenes structures in different samples. Non-polar fractions were analyzed by GC-MS. The study of asphaltenes showed the studied oil samples comprise two oil families with distinct genetic characteristics. The first oil family consists of Salman and Reshadat oil samples, and the second oil family consists of Resalat, Siri E, and Siri D oil samples. To validate our results, biomarker parameters were employed, and this approach completely confirmed previous results. Based on biomarker analyses, both oil families have a marine source rock, whereby marl and carbonate source rocks are the source rock for the first and the second oil family, respectively.

Keywords: biomarker, non-polar fraction, oil-oil correlation, petroleum geochemistry, polar fraction

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3003 Muslim Women Entrepreneurs in Kerala: Socialist Feminist Insights to Overcome the Hurdles

Authors: Nabilah Haniph

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This paper tries to examine the social and economic conditions of women entrepreneurs from the Muslim community in Kerala. It also tries to explain the problems faced by these entrepreneurs in the light of socialist feminist approach for overcoming these hurdles. The results are presented from a qualitative perspective of research and there is an attempt to merge the results from the study on a critical angle of materialist feminism and thereby prove the superiority of socialist feminism over all other forms of feminism. The analysis of the study is based on data collected from women entrepreneurs from Muslim community in Kerala who run small scale and medium scale business as well as service oriented business all over Kerala. Most of the women entrepreneurs consider themselves to be conventional and God-fearing and domestic women from middle-income or upper-income family and think that they can balance their family and other functions on their own. Most of them understand the problems faced by women in the field of business and they believe that they can solve all these barriers from the socialist feminist perspective. Finally, the paper substantiates why other theories of feminism do not hold good from an Islamic perspective.

Keywords: feminism, Islamic perspective, Kerala Muslim community, women entrepreneurs

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3002 Housing Security System and Household Entrepreneurship: Evidence from China

Authors: Wangshi Yong, Wei Shi, Jing Zou, Qiang Li, Yilin Tian

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With the advancement of the reform of China’s housing security system, the impact is becoming increasingly profound. This paper explores the relationship between the housing security system and household entrepreneurship on the 2017 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and conducts a large number of robustness checks, including PSM and IV estimation. The results show that the assistance of the housing security system will significantly promote family entrepreneurship, increasing the probability of entrepreneurship by 2%. Its internal mechanism is mainly achieved by relaxing liquidity constraints and increasing household social capital. However, the risk preference effect has not existed. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive impact of the housing security system on family entrepreneurship is mainly reflected in areas with high housing prices and incomes, as well as households with long-term security and social or commercial insurance. Meanwhile, it also verifies that the positive externalities of the housing security system will also positively affect active entrepreneurial motivation, entrepreneurial intensity, and entrepreneurial innovation.

Keywords: the housing security system, household entrepreneurship, social capital, liquidity constraints, risk preference

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3001 Risk Assessment of Natural Gas Pipelines in Coal Mined Gobs Based on Bow-Tie Model and Cloud Inference

Authors: Xiaobin Liang, Wei Liang, Laibin Zhang, Xiaoyan Guo

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Pipelines pass through coal mined gobs inevitably in the mining area, the stability of which has great influence on the safety of pipelines. After extensive literature study and field research, it was found that there are a few risk assessment methods for coal mined gob pipelines, and there is a lack of data on the gob sites. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is widely used based on expert opinions. However, the subjective opinions or lack of experience of individual experts may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Hence the accuracy of the results needs to be further improved. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to achieve this purpose by combining bow-tie model and cloud inference. The specific evaluation process is as follows: First, a bow-tie model composed of a fault tree and an event tree is established to graphically illustrate the probability and consequence indicators of pipeline failure. Second, the interval estimation method can be scored in the form of intervals to improve the accuracy of the results, and the censored mean algorithm is used to remove the maximum and minimum values of the score to improve the stability of the results. The golden section method is used to determine the weight of the indicators and reduce the subjectivity of index weights. Third, the failure probability and failure consequence scores of the pipeline are converted into three numerical features by using cloud inference. The cloud inference can better describe the ambiguity and volatility of the results which can better describe the volatility of the risk level. Finally, the cloud drop graphs of failure probability and failure consequences can be expressed, which intuitively and accurately illustrate the ambiguity and randomness of the results. A case study of a coal mine gob pipeline carrying natural gas has been investigated to validate the utility of the proposed method. The evaluation results of this case show that the probability of failure of the pipeline is very low, the consequences of failure are more serious, which is consistent with the reality.

Keywords: bow-tie model, natural gas pipeline, coal mine gob, cloud inference

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3000 Study and Analysis of the Factors Affecting Road Safety Using Decision Tree Algorithms

Authors: Naina Mahajan, Bikram Pal Kaur

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The purpose of traffic accident analysis is to find the possible causes of an accident. Road accidents cannot be totally prevented but by suitable traffic engineering and management the accident rate can be reduced to a certain extent. This paper discusses the classification techniques C4.5 and ID3 using the WEKA Data mining tool. These techniques use on the NH (National highway) dataset. With the C4.5 and ID3 technique it gives best results and high accuracy with less computation time and error rate.

Keywords: C4.5, ID3, NH(National highway), WEKA data mining tool

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2999 Evaluating the Challenges of Large Scale Urban Redevelopment Projects for Central Government Employee Housing in Delhi

Authors: Parul Kapoor, Dheeraj Bhardwaj

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Delhi and other Indian cities accommodate thousands of Central Government employees in housing complexes called ‘General Pool Residential Accommodation’ (GPRA), located in prime parcels of the city. These residential colonies are now undergoing redevelopment at a massive scale, significantly impacting the ecology of the surrounding areas. Essentially, these colonies were low-rise, low-density planned developments with a dense tree cover and minimal parking requirements. But with increasing urbanisation and spike in parking demand, the proposed built form is an aggregate of high-rise gated complexes, redefining the skyline of the city which is a huge departure from the mediocre setup of Low-rise Walk-up apartments. The complexity of these developments is further aggravated by the need for parking which necessitates cutting huge number of trees to accommodate multiple layers of parking beneath the structures thus sidelining the authentic character of these areas which is laden with a dense tree cover. The aftermath of this whole process is the generation of a huge carbon footprint on the surrounding areas, which is unaccounted for, in the planning and design practice. These developments are currently planned as mix-use compounds with large commercial built-up spaces which have additional parking requirements over and above the residential parking. Also, they are perceived as gated complexes and not as neighborhood units, thus project isolated images of high-rise, dense systems with little context to the surroundings. The paper would analyze case studies of GPRA Redevelopment projects in Delhi, and the lack of relevant development control regulations which have led to abnormalities and complications in the entire redevelopment process. It would also suggest policy guidelines which can establish comprehensive codes for effective planning of these settlements.

Keywords: gated complexes, GPRA Redevelopment projects, increased densities, huge carbon footprint, mixed-use development

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2998 Accurately Measuring Stress Using Latest Breathing Technology and Its Relationship with Academic Performance

Authors: Farshid Marbouti, Jale Ulas, Julia Thompson

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The main sources of stress among college students are: changes in sleeping and eating habits, undertaking new responsibilities, and financial difficulties as the most common sources of stress, exams, meeting new people, career decisions, fear of failure, and pressure from parents, transition to university especially if it requires leaving home, working with people that they do not know, trouble with parents, and relationship with the opposite sex. The students use a variety of stress coping strategies, including talking to family and friends, leisure activities and exercising. The Yerkes–Dodson law indicates while a moderate amount of stress may be beneficial for performance, too high stress will result in weak performance. In other words, if students are too stressed, they are likely to have low academic performance. In a preliminary study conducted in 2017 with engineering students enrolled in three high failure rate classes, the majority of the students stated that they have high levels of stress mainly for academic, financial, or family-related reasons. As the second stage of the study, the main purpose of this research is to investigate the students’ level of stress, sources of stress, their relationship with student demographic background, students’ coping strategies, and academic performance. A device is being developed to gather data from students breathing patterns and measure their stress levels. In addition, all participants are asked to fill out a survey. The survey under development has the following categories: exam stressor, study-related stressors, financial pressures, transition to university, family-related stress, student response to stress, and stress management. After the data collection, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analysis will be conducted in order to identify the relationship among students’ level of stress, coping strategies, and academic performance.

Keywords: college student stress, coping strategies, academic performance, measuring stress

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2997 Nature of Forest Fragmentation Owing to Human Population along Elevation Gradient in Different Countries in Hindu Kush Himalaya Mountains

Authors: Pulakesh Das, Mukunda Dev Behera, Manchiraju Sri Ramachandra Murthy

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Large numbers of people living in and around the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, depends on this diverse mountainous region for ecosystem services. Following the global trend, this region also experiencing rapid population growth, and demand for timber and agriculture land. The eight countries sharing the HKH region have different forest resources utilization and conservation policies that exert varying forces in the forest ecosystem. This created a variable spatial as well altitudinal gradient in rate of deforestation and corresponding forest patch fragmentation. The quantitative relationship between fragmentation and demography has not been established before for HKH vis-à-vis along elevation gradient. This current study was carried out to attribute the overall and different nature in landscape fragmentations along the altitudinal gradient with the demography of each sharing countries. We have used the tree canopy cover data derived from Landsat data to analyze the deforestation and afforestation rate, and corresponding landscape fragmentation observed during 2000 – 2010. Area-weighted mean radius of gyration (AMN radius of gyration) was computed owing to its advantage as spatial indicator of fragmentation over non-spatial fragmentation indices. Using the subtraction method, the change in fragmentation was computed during 2000 – 2010. Using the tree canopy cover data as a surrogate of forest cover, highest forest loss was observed in Myanmar followed by China, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Bhutan, and Afghanistan. However, the sequence of fragmentation was different after the maximum fragmentation observed in Myanmar followed by India, China, Bangladesh, and Bhutan; whereas increase in fragmentation was seen following the sequence of as Nepal, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Using SRTM-derived DEM, we observed higher rate of fragmentation up to 2400m that corroborated with high human population for the year 2000 and 2010. To derive the nature of fragmentation along the altitudinal gradients, the Statistica software was used, where the user defined function was utilized for regression applying the Gauss-Newton estimation method with 50 iterations. We observed overall logarithmic decrease in fragmentation change (area-weighted mean radius of gyration), forest cover loss and population growth during 2000-2010 along the elevation gradient with very high R2 values (i.e., 0.889, 0.895, 0.944 respectively). The observed negative logarithmic function with the major contribution in the initial elevation gradients suggest to gap filling afforestation in the lower altitudes to enhance the forest patch connectivity. Our finding on the pattern of forest fragmentation and human population across the elevation gradient in HKH region will have policy level implication for different nations and would help in characterizing hotspots of change. Availability of free satellite derived data products on forest cover and DEM, grid-data on demography, and utility of geospatial tools helped in quick evaluation of the forest fragmentation vis-a-vis human impact pattern along the elevation gradient in HKH.

Keywords: area-weighted mean radius of gyration, fragmentation, human impact, tree canopy cover

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2996 The Opinions of Counselor Candidates' regarding Universal Values in Marriage Relationship

Authors: Seval Kizildag, Ozge Can Aran

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The effective intervention of counselors’ in conflict between spouses may be effective in increasing the quality of marital relationship. At this point, it is necessary for counselors to consider their own value systems at first and then reflect this correctly to the counseling process. For this reason, it is primarily important to determine the needs of counselors. Starting from this point of view, in this study, it is aimed to reveal the perspective of counselor candidates about the universal values in marriage relation. The study group of the survey was formed by sampling, which is one of the prospective sampling methods. As a criterion being a candidate for counseling area and having knowledge of the concepts of the Marriage and Family Counseling course is based, because, that candidate students have a comprehensive knowledge of the field and that students have mastered the concepts of marriage and family counseling will strengthen the findings of this study. For this reason, 61 counselor candidates, 32 (52%) female and 29 (48%) male counselor candidates, who were about to graduate from a university in south-east Turkey and who took a Marriage and Family Counseling course, voluntarily participated in the study. The average age of counselor candidates’ is 23. At the same time, 70 % of the parents of these candidates brought about their marriage through arranged marriage, 13% through flirting, 8% by relative marriage, 7% through friend circles and 2% by custom. The data were collected through Demographic Information Form and a form titled ‘Universal Values Form in Marriage’ which consists of six questions prepared by researchers. After the data were transferred to the computer, necessary statistical evaluations were made on the data. The qualitative data analysis was used on the data which was obtained in the study. The universal values which include six basic values covering trustworthiness, respect, responsibility, fairness, caring, citizenship, determined under the name as ‘six pillar of character’ are used as base and frequency values of the data were calculated trough content analysis. According to the findings of the study, while the value which most students find the most important value in marriage relation is being reliable, the value which they find the least important is to have citizenship consciousness. Also in this study, it is found out that counselor candidates associate the value of being trustworthiness ‘loyalty’ with (33%) as the highest in terms of frequency, the value of being respect ‘No violence’ with (23%), the value of responsibility ‘in the context of gender roles and spouses doing their owns’ with (35%) the value of being fairness ‘impartiality’ with (25%), the value of being caring ‘ being helpful’ with (25%) and finally as to the value of citizenship ‘love of country’ with (14%) and’ respect for the laws ‘ with (14%). It is believed that these results of the study will contribute to the arrangements for the development of counseling skills for counselor candidates regarding value in marriage and family counseling curricula.

Keywords: caring, citizenship, counselor candidate, fairness, marriage relationship, respect, responsibility, trustworthiness, value system

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2995 Motherhood Managerial in Health Services: Need Eustress Internalization

Authors: Retty Ratnawati, Santi Sri Wulandari, Tulus Sabrina

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Feminine and masculine gender role stress could occur in some work situation. Being manager in health services that is known to be more women’ role in Indonesia, has expected to have feminine stereotype role. In the communities, this has been done in the program kesejahteraan keluarga (welfare family program) since the 1970s, for example through family planning program. The aim of the study was to explore the experience of being a motherhood managerial in health services. Our auto ethnographic study has revealed that motherhood managerial, even though running by a woman, could have some stress conditions whether she has realized or has not. The challenge would occur when the manager did not realize that she needed the eustress. The autonomy concept for a woman to be a manager could be a complex cycle that needs open communication continually and understanding the four elements surround her life. In conclusion, there is a demand to have the eustress when the manager does not realize that she has to be an autonomy person. However, it does not need eustress when the manager understands about how to deal with the complex cycle of being autonomy.

Keywords: motherhood managerial, eustress, feminine gender role stress, masculine gender role stress, autonomy concept in women

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2994 The Fall of Cultural Consumption in Spain during the Economic Crisis of 2008: Lessons for the Upcoming Crisis

Authors: Pau Rausell-Koster, Jordi Sanjuan-Belda

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The economic crisis of 2008 had a special impact on cultural consumption in Spain. It fell by almost 30% in a few years, and its share of total family spending decreased from 3.19% in 2007 to 2.38% in 2015. In 2017, unlike other indicators, cultural consumption levels were still far from recovering their pre-crisis values. In times of economic difficulties, the satisfaction of primary subsistence needs takes priority over that of social, cultural and experiential needs, among which cultural consumption would mostly be framed. However, its evolution cannot be attributed exclusively to macroeconomic trends. In parallel to these, technological advances mainly related to the Internet have been disseminated in recent years, which have a very marked impact on the consumption patterns of some cultural sectors. Thus, the aim of this study is to define the causes of the decline in cultural consumption in Spain in recent years, and analyse what type of products, territories and population profiles suffered it especially. From the data analysis of the Family Budget Survey, the study seeks to improve the understanding of the determinants of cultural consumption and their behaviour in the face of macroeconomic trends, as well as identify and extract some policy implications regarding to the upcoming crisis caused by COVID-19.

Keywords: consume patterns, cultural consumption, economic crisis, economic trends

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2993 Enhancing Experiential Education in Teacher Education Classes Through Simulated Person Methodology

Authors: Karen Armstrong

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This study is a narrative inquiry into the use of simulated person methodology (SPM) in teacher education classes. This methodology -often used in medical schools- has tremendous benefits in terms of enhancing experiential education in teacher education classes. Literacy education is a major focus in elementary schools. New teachers must work with parents to ensure that children learn to read and expand their literacy horizons. The classes used in this narrative inquiry research consist of one graduate class on family literacy and two pre-service teacher education classes: literacy and culture and early and family literacy. Two scenarios were devised, both of which simulated a parent-teacher interview. In the first scenario, the parent is a reluctant father who is ashamed of his lack of reading ability and does not understand why literacy is important. His seven-year-old son, wanting to emulate his father, has suddenly transformed from an eager student to one who rejects the value of reading in loyalty to his father who cannot read. In the second scenario, a father is called in by the teacher because his son has started acting out in class. The mother in this scenario is temporarily absent from the home, and the father is now the sole caregiver. In each of the scenarios, students are the teachers who are problem-solving these dilemmas in a safe environment with the 'parent' who is a specially trained simulated person. Teacher candidates enact, with the trained simulated person, their strategies for encouraging parents to engage in the literacy development of their children. Teacher candidates attempt to offer support and encouragement to parents. This simulation strategy offers both beginning and more experienced teachers the opportunity to practice an interview with two distinct and contrasting family situations with regard to the literacy of young children. The paper discusses the details of the scenarios enacted in class and the reflective discussion through which students learn from the simulation.

Keywords: experiential education, literacy, simulated person methodology, teacher education

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2992 Diversity and Use of Agroforestry Yards of Family Farmers of Ponte Alta – Gama, Federal District, Brazil

Authors: Kever Bruno Paradelo Gomes, Rosana Carvalho Martins

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The home gardens areas are production systems, which are located near the homes and are quite common in the tropics. They consist of agricultural and forest species and may also involve the raising of small animals to produce food for subsistence as well as income generation, with a special focus on the conservation of biodiversity. Home gardens are diverse Agroforestry systems with multiple uses, among many, food security, income aid, traditional medicine. The work was carried out on rural properties of the family farmers of the Ponte Alta Rural Nucleus, Gama Administrative Region, in the city of Brasília, Federal District- Brazil. The present research is characterized methodologically as a quantitative, exploratory and descriptive nature. The instruments used in this research were: bibliographic survey and semi-structured questionnaire. The data collection was performed through the application of a semi-structured questionnaire, containing questions that referred to the perception and behavior of the interviewed producer on the subject under analysis. In each question, the respondent explained his knowledge about sustainability, agroecological practices, environmental legislation, conservation methods, forest and medicinal species, ago social and socioeconomic characteristics, use and purpose of agroforestry and technical assistance. The sample represented 55.62% of the universe of the study. We interviewed 99 people aged 18-83 years, with a mean age of 49 years. The low level of education, coupled with the lack of training and guidance for small family farmers in the Ponte Alta Rural Nucleus, is one of the limitations to the development of practices oriented towards sustainable and agroecological agriculture in the nucleus. It is observed that 50.5% of the interviewed people landed with agroforestry yards less than 20 years ago, and only 16.17% of them are older than 35 years. In identifying agriculture as the main activity of most of the rural properties studied, attention is drawn to the cultivation of medicinal plants, fruits and crops as the most extracted products. However, it is verified that the crops in the backyards have the exclusive purpose of family consumption, which could be complemented with the marketing of the surplus, as well as with the aggregation of value to the cultivated products. Initiatives such as this may contribute to the increase in family income and to the motivation and value of the crop in agroecological gardens. We conclude that home gardens of Ponte Alta are highly diverse thus contributing to local biodiversity conservation of are managed by women to ensure food security and allows income generation. The tradition of existing knowledge on the use and management of the diversity of resources used in agroforestry yards is of paramount importance for the development of sustainable alternative practices.

Keywords: agriculture, agroforestry system, rural development, sustainability

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2991 Descriptive Analysis of the Relationship between State and Civil Society in Hegel's Political Thought

Authors: Garineh Keshishyan Siraki

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Civil society is one of the most important concepts of the twentieth century and even so far. Modern and postmodern thinkers have provided different definitions of civil society. Of course, the concept of civil society has undergone many changes over time. The relationship between government and civil society is one of the relationships that attracted the attention of many contemporary thinkers. Hegel, the thinker we discussed in this article also explores the relationship between these concepts and emphasizing the dialectical method, he has drawn three lines between family, state, and civil society. In Hegel's view, the creation of civil society will lead to a reduction of social conflict and increased social cohesion. The importance of the issue is due to the study of social cohesion and the ways to increase it. The importance of the issue is due to the study of social cohesion and the ways to increase it. This paper, which uses a descriptive-analytic method to examine Hegel's dialectical theory of civil society, after examining the relationship between the family and the state and finding the concept of civil society as the interface and the interconnected circle of these two, investigates tripartite economic, legal, and pluralistic systems. In this article, after examining the concepts of the market, the right and duty, the individual interests and the development of the exchange economy, Hegel's view is to examine the concept of freedom and its relation with civil society. The results of this survey show that, in Hegel's thought, the separation between the political system and the social system is a natural and necessary thing. In Hegel's view, because of those who are in society, they have selfish features; the community is in tension and contradiction. Therefore, the social realms within which conflicts emerge must be identified and controlled by specific mechanisms. It can also be concluded that the government can act to reduce social conflicts by legislating, using force or forming trade unions. The bottom line is that Hegel wants to reconcile between the individual, the state and civil society and it is not possible to rely on ethics.

Keywords: civil society, cohesion system, economic system, family, the legal system, state

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2990 Constructing a Semi-Supervised Model for Network Intrusion Detection

Authors: Tigabu Dagne Akal

Abstract:

While advances in computer and communications technology have made the network ubiquitous, they have also rendered networked systems vulnerable to malicious attacks devised from a distance. These attacks or intrusions start with attackers infiltrating a network through a vulnerable host and then launching further attacks on the local network or Intranet. Nowadays, system administrators and network professionals can attempt to prevent such attacks by developing intrusion detection tools and systems using data mining technology. In this study, the experiments were conducted following the Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model. The Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model starts from selection of the datasets. The dataset used in this study has been taken from Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory. After taking the data, it has been pre-processed. The major pre-processing activities include fill in missed values, remove outliers; resolve inconsistencies, integration of data that contains both labelled and unlabelled datasets, dimensionality reduction, size reduction and data transformation activity like discretization tasks were done for this study. A total of 21,533 intrusion records are used for training the models. For validating the performance of the selected model a separate 3,397 records are used as a testing set. For building a predictive model for intrusion detection J48 decision tree and the Naïve Bayes algorithms have been tested as a classification approach for both with and without feature selection approaches. The model that was created using 10-fold cross validation using the J48 decision tree algorithm with the default parameter values showed the best classification accuracy. The model has a prediction accuracy of 96.11% on the training datasets and 93.2% on the test dataset to classify the new instances as normal, DOS, U2R, R2L and probe classes. The findings of this study have shown that the data mining methods generates interesting rules that are crucial for intrusion detection and prevention in the networking industry. Future research directions are forwarded to come up an applicable system in the area of the study.

Keywords: intrusion detection, data mining, computer science, data mining

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2989 Diversity and Structure of Trichoptera Communities and Water Quality Variables in Streams, Northern Thailand

Authors: T. Prommi, P. Thamsenanupap

Abstract:

The influence of physicochemical water quality parameters on the abundance and diversity of caddisfly larvae was studied in seven sampling stations in Mae Tao and Mae Ku watersheds, Mae Sot District, Tak Province, northern Thailand. The streams: MK2 and MK8 as reference site, and impacted streams (MT1-MT5) were sampled bi-monthly during July 2011 to May 2012. A total of 4,584 individual of caddisfly larvae belonging to 10 family and 17 genera were found. The larvae of family Hydropsychidae were the most abundance, followed by Philopotamidae, Odontoceridae, and Leptoceridae, respectively. The genus Cheumatopsyche, Hydropsyche, and Chimarra were the most abundance genera in this study. Results of CCA ordination showed the total dissolved solids, sulfate, water temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH were the most important physicochemical factors to affect distribution of caddisflies communities. Changes in the caddisfly fauna may indicate changes in physicochemical factors owing to agricultural pollution, urbanization, or other human activities. Results revealed that the order Trichoptera, identified to species or genus, can be potentially used to assess environmental water quality status in freshwater ecosystems.

Keywords: Caddisfly larvae, environmental variables, diversity, streams

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2988 A Faunistic Study of Syrphidae Flowerflies in Alfalfa Fields of North of Khouzestan, Iran

Authors: Zahra Safaeian, Shila Goldasteh, Rouhollah Radjabi

Abstract:

Flowerflies of Syrphidae family is one of the largest families among the Diptera order that due to predatory habit of some species in larva stage has an important role for controlling aphids of the fields. In the present study, flowerflies fauna in the alfalfa fields of the north of Khouzestan were studied during 2012-2013. The species of the family were collected using appropriate methods including insect collecting sweeping net and Malaise traps. According to the fact that the shape of male genitalia in the male insect is important in identification of these species the male genitalia was separated from the body and microscopical slide was prepared then species identification was done considering the male genitalia, the patterns and figures on the abdomen and using available keys. Based on the finding four species of Sphaerophoria scripta, Sphaerophoria turkmenica, Melanostoma mellinu, Sphaerophoria ruppelli were collected and according to the abundance frequency of the collected species the most abundance was related to Sphaerophoria scripta, then Sphaerophoria turkmenica had the most abundance and the least abundance was related to Sphaerophoria ruppelli.

Keywords: syrphidae, fauna, alfalfa, Iran

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2987 Performance Analysis of LINUX Operating System Connected in LAN Using Gumbel-Hougaard Family Copula Distribution

Authors: V. V. Singh

Abstract:

In this paper we have focused on the study of a Linux operating system connected in a LAN (local area network). We have considered two different topologies STAR topology (subsystem-1) and BUS topology (subsystem-2) which are placed at two different places and connected to a server through a hub. In both topologies BUS topology and STAR topology, we have assumed 'n' clients. The system has two types of failure partial failure and complete failure. Further the partial failure has been categorized as minor partial failure and major partial failure. It is assumed that minor partial failure degrades the subsystem and the major partial failure brings the subsystem to break down mode. The system can completely failed due to failure of server hacking and blocking etc. The system is studied by supplementary variable technique and Laplace transform by taking different types of failure and two types of repairs. The various measures of reliability like availability of system, MTTF, profit function for different parametric values has been discussed.

Keywords: star topology, bus topology, hacking, blocking, linux operating system, Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, supplementary variable

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2986 Extent of Knowledge, Preparedness and Perception on Telemedicine among Family Medicine Resident Physicians in Different Training Institutions in Cebu City, PH during COVID-19 Pandemic

Authors: Kristine Joy Y. Sumanga, Clarissa Mae D. Derecho

Abstract:

Telemedicine is providing health care services using electronic means at a distance, including the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of diseases as well as the research and evaluation and education of health care providers. The role of telemedicine in this time of the COVID-19 pandemic is vital, especially in the practice of medicine. General Objective: To determine the extent of knowledge, preparedness and perception of telemedicine among Family Medicine Resident Physicians in different training institutions in Cebu City during the Coronavirus Disease 19 pandemic. Methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional survey research study was conducted in four hospital training institutions in Cebu City. A total of 41 respondents gave their consent and were given the online survey questionnaire pertaining to the extent of knowledge, preparedness and perceptions on telemedicine, including respondents’ demographic data and problems encountered in Telemedicine. Results: Out of the 41 respondents, 56.10% were young adults (26 to 30 years old), mostly females (70.73%), single (68.29%), first-year residents (43.90%), employed at a government hospital (70.73%) and are in the traditional residency pathway (82.93%). On relevant experience, 82.93% experienced telemedicine during residency, with 100% on follow-up consultations, and 95% were consulted due to infections. Respondents’ extent of knowledge was average, while the extent of preparedness and perception were great. Problems with low connectivity (80.48%) were noted by most of the respondents. Conclusion: Resident physicians moderately understood the information about telemedicine but with a great extent of preparedness and perception. They are always prepared for telemedicine modality because they are fully aware of its existence and need in the delivery of health care services among their patients at the time of the pandemic. Challenges to low connectivity and handling patients’ data privacy were the major concerns met by the resident physicians in the use of telemedicine.

Keywords: telemedicine, knowledge, preparedness, perception, family medicine, residents, COVID 19

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2985 Elderly Home Care the Need of an Hour In India

Authors: Varsha Reddy Jayar

Abstract:

Background: Our elderly family members deserve our best care. It's our responsibility to ensure they're healthy and safe. The population of India is increasing rapidly. People are literally being born in the streets, and there is a high growth on taxes and healthcare costs. Indian families are challenged with taking care of everyone. When you have elderly parents and a demanding job, it can be difficult to take care of them. You might not have enough time to care for them when you're already working or dealing with emotional difficulties. Living alone in old age can cause older individuals to face many health risks. Many seniors find living and caring for themselves challenging when they live by themselves. This study explored the factors that affect whether or not elderly people choose to live in old age homes. Methods: This study was carried out on 123 elderly people living in different old age homes in Karnataka, India. The reason for their residence at the home was explored using an interview. Results: It was found that the most common reason for living in an old age home is due to abuse from children and grandchildren; the majority reported were Daughter in law issues in the family specific to the adjustment and understanding amongst them. Conclusion: More and more elderly people in India are choosing to stay in old age homes as they get older. The government and voluntary agencies must have some sort of arrangements for institutional support.

Keywords: old age home, elderly, Aging, challenges of aging

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2984 Genome-Wide Assessment of Putative Superoxide Dismutases in Unicellular and Filamentous Cyanobacteria

Authors: Shivam Yadav, Neelam Atri

Abstract:

Cyanobacteria are photoautotrophic prokaryotes able to grow in diverse ecological habitats, originated 2.5 - 3.5 billion years ago and brought oxygenic photosynthesis. Since then superoxide dismutases (SODs) acquired great significance due to their ability to catalyze detoxification of byproducts of oxygenic photosynthesis, i.e. superoxide radicals. Sequence information from several cyanobacterial genomes offers a unique opportunity to conduct a comprehensive comparative analysis of the superoxide dismutases family. In the present study, we extracted information regarding SODs from species of sequenced cyanobacteria and investigated their diversity, conservation, domain structure, and evolution. 144 putative SOD homologues were identified. SODs are present in all cyanobacterial species reflecting their significant role in survival. However, their distribution varies, fewer in unicellular marine strains whereas abundant in filamentous nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. Motifs and invariant amino acids typical in eukaryotic SODs were conserved well in these proteins. These SODs were classified into three major families according to their domain structures. Interestingly, they lack additional domains as found in proteins of other family. Phylogenetic relationships correspond well with phylogenies based on 16S rRNA and clustering occurs on the basis of structural characteristics such as domain organization. Similar conserved motifs and amino acids indicate that cyanobacterial SODs make use of a similar catalytic mechanism as eukaryotic SODs. Gene gain-and-loss is insignificant during SOD evolution as evidenced by absence of additional domain. This study has not only examined an overall background of sequence-structure-function interactions for the SOD gene family but also revealed variation among SOD distribution based on ecophysiological and morphological characters.

Keywords: comparative genomics, cyanobacteria, phylogeny, superoxide dismutases

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2983 Assesment of Genetic Fidelity of Micro-Clones of an Aromatic Medicinal Plant Murraya koenigii (L.) Spreng

Authors: Ramesh Joshi, Nisha Khatik

Abstract:

Murraya koenigii (L.) Spreng locally known as “Curry patta” or “Meetha neem” belonging to the family Rutaceae that grows wildly in Southern Asia. Its aromatic leaves are commonly used as the raw material for traditional medicinal formulations in India. The leaves contain essential oil and also used as a condiment. Several monomeric and binary carbazol alkaloids present in the various plant parts. These alkaloids have been reported to possess anti-microbial, mosquitocidal, topo-isomerase inhibition and antioxidant properties. Some of the alkaloids reported in this plant have showed anti carcinogenic and anti-diabetic properties. The conventional method of propagation of this tree is limited to seeds only, which retain their viability for only a short period. Hence, a biotechnological approach might have an advantage edging over traditional breeding as well as the genetic improvement of M. koenigii within a short period. The development of a reproducible regeneration protocol is the prerequisite for ex situ conservation and micropropagation. An efficient protocol for high frequency regeneration of in vitro plants of Murraya koenigii via different explants such as- nodal segments, intermodal segments, leaf, root segments, hypocotyle, cotyledons and cotyledonary node explants is described. In the present investigation, assessment of clonal fidelity in the micropropagated plantlets of Murraya koenigii was attempted using RAPD and ISSR markers at different pathways of plant tissue culture technique. About 20 ISSR and 40 RAPD primers were used for all the samples. Genomic DNA was extracted by CTAB method. ISSR primer were found to be more suitable as compared to RAPD for the analysis of clonal fidelity of M. koenigii. The amplifications however, were finally performed using RAPD, ISSR markers owing to their better performance in terms of generation of amplification products. In RAPD primer maximum 75% polymorphism was recorded in OPU-2 series which exhibited out of 04 scorable bands, three bands were polymorphic with a band range of size 600-1500 bp. In ISSR primers the UBC 857 showed 50% polymorphism with 02 band were polymorphic of band range size between 400-1000 bp.

Keywords: genetic fidelity, Murraya koenigii, aromatic plants, ISSR primers

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2982 Mental Illness, Dargahs and Healing: A Qualitative Exploration in a North Indian City

Authors: Reetinder Kaur, R. K. Pathak

Abstract:

Mental health is recognised as an important global health concern. World Health Organisation in 2004 estimated that neuropsychiatric illnesses in India account for 10.8 percent of the global burden. The prevalence of serious mental illnesses is estimated as 6.5 percent by National Commission of Macroeconomics and Health in 2005. India spends only 0.06 percent of its health budget on mental health. One of the major problems that exist in Indian mental health care is the treatment gap due to scarcity of manpower, inadequate infrastructure and deficiencies in policy initiatives. As a result, traditional healing is a popular resource for mentally ill individuals and their families. The various traditional healing resources include faith healers, healers at temples and Dargahs. Chandigarh is a Union Territory located in North India. It has surplus manpower and infrastructure available for mental health care. Inspite of availability of mental health care services, mentally ill individuals and their families seek help from traditional healers at various Dargahs within or outside Chandigarh. For the present study, the data was collected from four dargahs. A total of thirty patients medically diagnosed with various mental illnesses, their family members who accompanied them and healers were part of this study. The aim of the study was to: Understand the interactions between healer, patient and family members during the course of treatment, understand explanations of mental illnesses and analyse the healing practices in context of culture. The interviews were conducted using an interview guide for the three sets of informants: Healers, patients and family members. The interview guide for healer focussed on the healing process, healer’s understanding of patient’s explanatory models, healer’s knowledge about mental illnesses and types of these illnesses cured by the healer. The interview guide for patients and family members focussed on their understanding of the symptoms, explanations for illness and help-seeking behaviour. The patients were observed over the weeks (every Thursday, the day of pir and healing) during their visits to the healer. Detailed discussions were made with the healer regarding the healing process and benefits of healing. The data was analysed thematically and the themes: The role of sacred, holistic healing, healer’s understanding of patient’s explanatory models of mental illness, the patient’s, and family’s understanding of mental illnesses, healer’s knowledge about mental illnesses, types of mental illnesses cured by the healer, bad dreams and their interpretation emerged. From the analysis of data, it was found that the healers concentrate their interventions in the social arena, ‘curing’ distressed patients by bringing significant changes in their social environment. It is suggested that in order to make the mental health care services effective in India, the collaboration between healers and psychiatrist is essential. However, certain specifications need to be made to make this kind of collaboration successful and beneficial for the stakeholders.

Keywords: Dargah, mental illness, traditional healing, policy

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2981 A Study on Diversity of the Family Encyrtidae (Hymenoptera: Chalcidoidea) in Forest Habitat of Doon Valley, Uttarakhand, India

Authors: Rashmi Nautiyal, Sudhir Singh

Abstract:

Encyrtidae is the largest family of superfamily Chalcidoidea of parasitic Hymenoptera group. They are endoparasitoids or hyperparasitoids of other arthropods and have the greatest impact on maintaining diversity. It not only forms a major component of diversity itself but also is very important in sustaining diversity in other groups. They are used as efficient biological control agents against key insect pests world over. The present study is based on the collection of Encyrtidae (Chalcidoidea: Hymenoptera) made during a survey in Doon Valley from 2008 to 2011 in all the five seasons (Spring, Summer cum Pre-monsoon, Monsoon, Post-monsoon, Winter) for each year. The collections were made from forest habitat in different localities of the Valley using sweep net and yellow pan trap methods. A total of 1346 specimens of encyrtids were collected and identified from the forest habitat (745 with a sweep net and 601with yellow pan trap).Of these, season-wise (post monsoon, spring, summer, monsoon, and winter) represented Encyrtids were 30.46%, 19.31%, 17.16%, 16.64% and 16.41%, respectively. A total of 161 species of Encyrtids belonging to 43 genera under 2 subfamilies were recorded.

Keywords: diversity, Encyrtidae, sweep net, yellow pan

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2980 Theoretical Analysis of Self-Starting Busemann Intake Family

Authors: N. Moradian, E. Timofeev, R. Tahir

Abstract:

In this work, startability of the Busemann intake family with weak/strong conical shock, as most efficient intakes, via overboard mass spillage method is theoretically analyzed. Masterix and Candifix codes are used to numerically simulate few models of this type of intake and verify the theoretical results. Portions of the intake corresponding to various flow capture angles are considered to have mass spillage in the starting process of this intake. This approach allows for overboard mass spillage via a V-shaped slot with the tip of V coinciding with the focal point of the Busemann flow. The theoretical results, achieved using two different theories, of self-started Busemann takes with weak/strong conical shock show that significant improve in intake startability using overboard spillage technique. The starting phenomena of Busemann intakes with weak conical shock and seven different capture angles are numerically simulated at freestream Mach number of 3 to find the minimum area ratios of self-started intakes. The numerical results confirm the theoretical ones achieved by authors.

Keywords: Busemann intake, conical shock, overboard spillage, startability

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2979 Regional Variations in Spouse Selection Patterns of Women in India

Authors: Nivedita Paul

Abstract:

Marriages in India are part and parcel of kinship and cultural practices. Marriage practices differ in India because of cross-regional diversities in social relations which itself has evolved as a result of causal relationship between space and culture. As the place is important for the formation of culture and other social structures, therefore there is regional differentiation in cultural practices and marital customs. Based on the cultural practices some scholars have divided India into North and South kinship regions where women in the North get married early and have lesser autonomy compared to women in the South where marriages are mostly consanguineous. But, the emergence of new modes and alternative strategies such as matrimonial advertisements becoming popular, as well as the increase in women’s literacy and work force participation, matchmaking process in India has changed to some extent. The present study uses data from Indian Human Development Survey II (2011-12) which is a nationally representative multitopic survey that covers 41,554 households. Currently married women of age group 15-49 in their first marriage; whose year of marriage is from the 1970s to 2000s have been taken for the study. Based on spouse selection experiences, the sample of women has been divided into three marriage categories-self, semi and family arranged. Women in self-arranged or love marriage is the sole decision maker in choosing the partner, in semi-arranged marriage or arranged marriage with consent both parents and women together take the decision, whereas in family arranged or arranged marriage without consent only parents take the decision. The main aim of the study is to show the spatial and regional variations in spouse selection decision making. The basis for regionalization has been taken from Irawati Karve’s pioneering work on kinship studies in India called Kinship Organization in India. India is divided into four kinship regions-North, Central, South and East. Since this work was formulated in 1953, some of the states have experienced changes due to modernization; hence these have been regrouped. After mapping spouse selection patterns using GIS software, it is found that the northern region has mostly family arranged marriages (around 64.6%), the central zone shows a mixed pattern since family arranged marriages are less than north but more than south and semi-arranged marriages are more than north but less than south. The southern zone has the dominance of semi-arranged marriages (around 55%) whereas the eastern zone has more of semi-arranged marriage (around 53%) but there is also a high percentage of self-arranged marriage (around 42%). Thus, arranged marriage is the dominant form of marriage in all four regions, but with a difference in the degree of the involvement of the female and her parents and relatives.

Keywords: spouse selection, consent, kinship, regional pattern

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2978 Identifying Risk Factors for Readmission Using Decision Tree Analysis

Authors: Sıdıka Kaya, Gülay Sain Güven, Seda Karsavuran, Onur Toka

Abstract:

This study is part of an ongoing research project supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 114K404, and participation to this conference was supported by Hacettepe University Scientific Research Coordination Unit under Project Number 10243. Evaluation of hospital readmissions is gaining importance in terms of quality and cost, and is becoming the target of national policies. In Turkey, the topic of hospital readmission is relatively new on agenda and very few studies have been conducted on this topic. The aim of this study was to determine 30-day readmission rates and risk factors for readmission. Whether readmission was planned, related to the prior admission and avoidable or not was also assessed. The study was designed as a ‘prospective cohort study.’ 472 patients hospitalized in internal medicine departments of a university hospital in Turkey between February 1, 2015 and April 30, 2015 were followed up. Analyses were conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics version 22.0 and SPSS Modeler 16.0. Average age of the patients was 56 and 56% of the patients were female. Among these patients 95 were readmitted. Overall readmission rate was calculated as 20% (95/472). However, only 31 readmissions were unplanned. Unplanned readmission rate was 6.5% (31/472). Out of 31 unplanned readmission, 24 was related to the prior admission. Only 6 related readmission was avoidable. To determine risk factors for readmission we constructed Chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) decision tree algorithm. CHAID decision trees are nonparametric procedures that make no assumptions of the underlying data. This algorithm determines how independent variables best combine to predict a binary outcome based on ‘if-then’ logic by portioning each independent variable into mutually exclusive subsets based on homogeneity of the data. Independent variables we included in the analysis were: clinic of the department, occupied beds/total number of beds in the clinic at the time of discharge, age, gender, marital status, educational level, distance to residence (km), number of people living with the patient, any person to help his/her care at home after discharge (yes/no), regular source (physician) of care (yes/no), day of discharge, length of stay, ICU utilization (yes/no), total comorbidity score, means for each 3 dimensions of Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale (patient’s personal status, patient’s knowledge, and patient’s coping ability) and number of daycare admissions within 30 days of discharge. In the analysis, we included all 95 readmitted patients (46.12%), but only 111 (53.88%) non-readmitted patients, although we had 377 non-readmitted patients, to balance data. The risk factors for readmission were found as total comorbidity score, gender, patient’s coping ability, and patient’s knowledge. The strongest identifying factor for readmission was comorbidity score. If patients’ comorbidity score was higher than 1, the risk for readmission increased. The results of this study needs to be validated by other data–sets with more patients. However, we believe that this study will guide further studies of readmission and CHAID is a useful tool for identifying risk factors for readmission.

Keywords: decision tree, hospital, internal medicine, readmission

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