Search results for: excessive rainfall

Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak

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This study was analyzed changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Thailand for the period 1981-2011.The study includes an analysis of the average and trends of changes in temperature and precipitation using 22 climate indices, related to the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme climate events. The results showed that the averaged trend of maximum, minimum and mean temperature is likely to increase over the study area in rate of 0.5, 0.9 and 0.7 °C in last 30 years. Changes in temperature at nighttime, then rising at a rate higher daytime is resulting to decline of diurnal temperature range throughout the area. Trend of changes in average precipitation during the year 1981-2011 is expected to increase at an average rate of 21%. The intensity of extreme temperature events is increasing almost all station. In particular, the changes of the night were unusually hot has intensified throughout the region. In some provinces such as Chiang Mai and Lampang are likely be faced with the severity of hot days and hot nights in increasing rate. Frequency of extreme temperature events are likely to increase each station, especially hot days, and hot nights are increasing at a rate of 2.38 and 3.58 days per decade. Changes in the cold days and cold nights are declining at a rate of 0.82 and 3.03 days per decade. The duration of extreme temperature events is expected to increase the events hot in every station. An average of 17.8 days per decade for the number of consecutive cold winter nights likely shortens the rate of 2.90 days per decade. The analysis of the precipitation indices reveals the intensity of extreme precipitation is increasing almost across the region. The intensify expressed the heavy rain in one day (Rx1day) and very heavy rain accumulated in 5 days (RX5day) which is likely to increase, and very heavy rainfall is likely to increase in intensity. Frequency of extreme precipitation events is likely to increase over the station. The average frequency of heavy precipitation events increased xxx days per decade. The duration of extreme precipitation events, such as the consecutive dry days are likely to reduce the numbers almost all station while the consecutive wet days tends to increase and decrease at different numbers in different areas.

Keywords: climate extreme, temperature extreme, precipitation extreme, Northern Thailand

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Authors: Petcharat Kerdonfag, Surasak Taneepanichskul, Winai Wadwongtham

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Background: Although there have not been effective treatments for Noise Induced Hearing Loss (NIHL), it can be definitely preventable with promoting the use of Hearing Protection devices (HPDs) among workers who have been exposed to excessive noise for a long period. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to explore the use of HPDs among steel industrial workers in the high noise level zone in Samut Prakan province, Thailand and to examine the relationships of the HPDs use and hearing loss. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, eligible ninety-three participants were recruited in the designated zone of higher noise (> 85dBA) of two factories, using simple random sampling. The use of HPDs was gathered by the self-record form, examined and confirmed by the researcher team. Hearing loss was assessed by the audiometric screening at the regional Samut Prakan hospital. If an average threshold level exceeds 25 dBA at high frequency (4 and 6 Hz) in each ear, participants would be lost of hearing. Data were collected from October to December, 2016. All participants were examined by the same examiners for the validity. An Audiometric testing was performed with the participants who have been exposed to high noise levels at least 14 hours from workplace. Results: Sixty participants (64.5%) had secondary level of education. The average mean score of percent time of using HPDs was 60.5% (SD = 25.34). Sixty-seven participants (72.0%) had abnormal hearing which they have still needed to increase lower percent time of using HPDs (Mean = 37.01, SD = 23.81) than those having normal hearing (Mean = 45.77, SD = 28.44). However, there was no difference in the mean average of percent time of using HPDs between these two groups.Conclusion: The findings of this study have confirmed that the steel industrial workers still need to be motivated to use HPDs regularly. Future research should pay more attentions for creating a meaningful innovation to steel industrial workers.

Keywords: hearing protection devices, noise induced hearing loss, audiometric testing, steel industry

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Authors: Courtney Manthey-Pierce, Anna Warrener

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Polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine disruptive disorder in females. PCOS is primarily characterized by polycystic ovaries, anovulation, hirsutism, insulin resistance, and hyperandrogenism. Despite negative reproductive consequences for females from anovulation and endocrine dysfunction, genes associated with the pathogenesis of PCOS are highly hereditable (h2 = 0.72). An evolutionary mismatch occurs when a trait that evolved in one environment has become maladaptive in another environment. The idea that PCOS is an evolutionary mismatch disease has been promoted by several researchers. Each trait of the resulting PCOS phenotype should be investigated individually in order to demonstrate an evolutionary mismatch. Hyperandrogenism is often regarded as the main characteristic of PCOS Hyperandrogenism may have aided with conception in older females, increased bone mineral density, and supported prolonged breastfeeding in nutritionally distressed populations. Because of the high prevalence of PCOS in the modern world, approximately 6%, it is often argued that PCOS emerged in an ancestral population prior to the migration out of Africa approximately 200,000 years ago. This environment would be characterized by sporadic periods of nutrition deficit and resource hardships as the climate began changing. Presently, modern society is characterized by obesity and sedentary lifestyles. The prevalence of obesity renders hyperandrogenism PCOS useless as there are no periods of nutritional distress requiring androgens for increased reproductive rates. In an ancestral environment, hyperandrogenism would likely lead to sporadic anovulation and mild secondary symptoms, however high levels of androgens in a modern environment led to prolonged if not permanent infertility and excessive secondary problems. Thus, hyperandrogenism related to PCOS appears to meet evolutionary mismatch criteria. Seen in this light, PCOS may be effectively treated as a probably evolutionary mismatch.

Keywords: evolutionary mismatch, heritability, hyperandrogenism, mismatch disorder

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Authors: Halkiopoulos Constantinos, Gkintoni Evgenia, Koutsopoulou Ioanna, Antonopoulou Hera

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E-sports and e-gaming have emerged in recent years since the increase in internet use have become universal and e-gamers are the new reality in our homes. The excessive involvement of young adults with e-sports has already been revealed and the adverse consequences have been reported in researches in the past few years, but the issue has not been fully studied yet. The present research is conducted in Greece and studies the psychological profile of video game players and provides information on personality traits, habits and emotional status that affect online gamers’ behaviors in order to help professionals and policy makers address the problem. Three standardized self-report questionnaires were administered to participants who were young male and female adults aged from 19-26 years old. The Profile of Mood States (POMS) scale was used to evaluate people’s perceptions of their everyday life mood; the personality features that can trace back to people’s habits and anticipated reactions were measured by Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), and the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire (TEIQue) was used to measure which cognitive (gamers’ beliefs) and emotional parameters (gamers’ emotional abilities) mainly affected/ predicted gamers’ behaviors and leisure time activities?/ gaming behaviors. Data mining techniques were used to analyze the data, which resulted in machine learning algorithms that were included in the software package R. The research findings attempt to designate the effect of personality traits, emotional status and emotional intelligence influence and correlation with e-sports, gamers’ behaviors and help policy makers and stakeholders take action, shape social policy and prevent the adverse consequences on young adults. The need for further research, prevention and treatment strategies is also addressed.

Keywords: e-sports, e-gamers, personality traits, POMS, emotional intelligence, data mining, R

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Authors: Paula Lopez-Arce, Hector Altamirano, Dimitrios Rovas, James Berry, Bryan Hindle, Steven Hodgson

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Efficient mould remediation and accurate moisture diagnostics leading to condensation and mould growth in dwellings are largely untapped. Number of factors are contributing to the rising trend of excessive moisture in homes mainly linked with modern living, increased levels of occupation and rising fuel costs, as well as making homes more energy efficient. Environmental monitoring by means of data collection though loggers sensors and survey forms has been performed in a range of buildings from different UK regions. Air and surface temperature and relative humidity values of residential areas affected by condensation and/or mould issues were recorded. Additional measurements were taken through different trials changing type, location, and position of loggers. In some instances, IR thermal images and ventilation rates have also been acquired. Results have been interpreted together with environmental key parameters by processing and connecting data from loggers and survey questionnaires, both in buildings with and without moisture issues. Monitoring exercises carried out during Winter and Spring time show the importance of developing and following accurate protocols for guidance to obtain consistent, repeatable and comparable results and to improve the performance of environmental monitoring. A model and a protocol are being developed to build a diagnostic tool with the goal of performing a simple but precise residential atmospheric moisture diagnostics to distinguish the cause entailing condensation and mould generation, i.e., ventilation, insulation or heating systems issue. This research shows the relevance of monitoring and processing environmental data to assign moisture risk levels and determine the origin of condensation or mould when dealing with a building atmospheric moisture excess.

Keywords: environmental monitoring, atmospheric moisture, protocols, mould

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Authors: Kgopa Bontle, Tholen Sodi

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Climate change poses a major threat to the well-being of both people and the environment, with subsistence farmers most affected as they rely on local supply systems that are sensitive to climate variation. This study documented psychological resilience factors associated with climate change adaptations by subsistence farmers in Maruleng Municipality, Limpopo Province. A qualitative study was conducted to examine the notions of climate change by subsistence farmers, the psychological resilience factors, the strategies to cope with climate change, adaptation methods, and the development of subsistence farmers’ psychological resilience factors model. Data were collected through direct interactions with participants using a grounded theory research design. An open-ended interview was used to collect data with a sample of 15 participants selected through theoretical sampling in Maruleng Municipality. The participants were both Sepedi and Xitsonga speaking from 2 villages, mostly unemployed, pensioners and dependent on social grants. The study included both males and females who were predominately the elderly. The research findings indicate that farmers have limited knowledge of what climate change is and what causes it. Furthermore, the research reflects that although their responses were non-scientific but sensible enough to know what they were dealing with. They mentioned extreme weather, which includes hot days and less rainfall and changes in seasons, as some of the impacts brought by climate change. The results also indicated that participants have learned to adapt through several adaptation strategies, including mulching, changes in irrigation time slots and being innovative. The resilience factors that emerged from the study were a passion for farming, hope, enthusiasm, courage, acceptance/tolerance, livelihood and belief systems. Looking at the socio-economic factors of the current study setting argumentation leads to the conclusion that it is important that government should assist the subsistence farmers as it was observed from the participants that they felt neglected by the government and policymakers as they are small scale farmers and are not included like commercial farmers.

Keywords: climate change, psychological resilience factors, human adaptation, subsistence farmers

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Authors: Yu-Ju Tsai, Ching-Chun Wang, Wen-Tzu Tang, Huei-Ming Chai

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A pronated foot is frequently associated with a hypermobile first ray, then developing further severe foot problems. Low-Dye taping with athletic tape has been widely used to restrict excessive first ray motion and re-build height of the medial longitudinal arch in general population with pronated foot. It is not the case, however, for sprinters since they feel too much restriction of foot motions. Currently, the kinesio tape, more elastic than the athletic tape, has been widely used to re-adjust joint positions. It was interesting whether modified low-Dye taping using kinesio tape was beneficial for altering first ray mobility and still giving enough arch support. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of modified low-Dye taping on first ray mobility test and 60-m sprint time for sprinters with pronated foot. The significance of this study provides new insight into a treatment alternative of modified low-Dye taping for sprinter with pronated foot. Ten young male sprinters, aged 20.8±1.6 years, with pronated foot were recruited for this study. The pronated foot was defined as the foot that the navicular drop test was greater than 1.0 cm. Three optic shutters were placed at the start, 30-m, and 60-m sites to record sprint time. All participants were asked to complete 3 trials of the 60-m dash with both taping and non-taping conditions in a random order. The low-Dye taping was applied using the method postulated by Ralph Dye in 1939 except the kinesio tape was used instead. All outcome variables were recorded for taping and non-taping conditions. Paired t-tests were used to analyze all outcome variables between 2 conditions. Although there were no statistically significant differences in dorsal and plantar mobility between taping and non-taping conditions, a statistical significance was found in a total range of motion (dorsiflexion plus plantarflexion angle) of the first ray when a modified low-Dye taping was applied (p < 0.05). Time to complete 60-m sprint was significantly increased with low-Dye taping (p < 0.05) while no significance was found for time to 30-m. it indicated that modified low-Dye taping changed maximum sprint speed of 60-m dash. Conclusively, modified low-Dye taping was capable of increasing first ray mobility and further altered maximum sprint speed.

Keywords: first ray mobility, kinesio taping, pronated foot, sprint time

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Authors: Brunno Vasques

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Due to the non-toxic nature and high performance in terms of vacuum specific impulse and density specific impulse, the combination of liquid oxygen and liquid methane have been identified as a promising option for future space vehicle systems. Applications requiring throttling capability include specific missions such as rendezvous, planetary landing and de-orbit as well as weapon systems. One key challenge in throttling liquid rocket engines is maintaining an adequate pressure drop across the injection elements, which is necessary to provide good propellant atomization and mixing as well as system stability. The potential scalability of pintle injectors, their great suitability to throttling and inherent combustion stability characteristics led to investigations using a variety of propellant combinations, including liquid oxygen and hydrogen and fluorine-oxygen and methane. Presented here are the preliminary performance and heat transfer information obtained during hot-fire testing of a pintle injector running on liquid oxygen and liquid methane propellants. The specific injector design selected for this purpose is a multi-configuration building block version with replaceable injection elements, providing flexibility to accommodate hardware modifications with minimum difficulty. On the basis of single point runs and the use of a copper/nickel segmented calorimetric combustion chamber and associated transient temperature measurement, the characteristic velocity efficiency, injector footprint and heat fluxes could be established for the first proposed pintle configuration as a function of injection velocity- and momentum-ratios. A description of the test-bench is presented as well as a discussion of irregularities encountered during testing, such as excessive heat flux into the pintle tip resulting from certain operating conditions.

Keywords: green propellants, hot-fire performance, rocket engine throttling, pintle injector

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Authors: Shivangi Somvanshi

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Poor crop productivity in salt-affected environment in the country is due to insufficient and untimely canal supply to agricultural land and inefficient field water management practices. This could further degrade due to inadequate maintenance of canal network, ongoing secondary soil salinization and waterlogging, worsening of groundwater quality. Large patches of low productivity in irrigation commands are occurring due to waterlogging and salt-affected soil, particularly in the scarcity rainfall year. Satellite remote sensing has been used for mapping of areas of low crop productivity, waterlogging and salt in irrigation commands. The spatial results obtained for these problems so far are less reliable for further use due to rapid change in soil quality parameters over the years. The existing spatial databases of canal network and flow data, groundwater quality and salt-affected soil were obtained from the central and state line departments/agencies and were integrated with GIS. Therefore, an integrated methodology based on remote sensing and GIS has been developed in ArcGIS environment on the basis of canal supply status, groundwater quality, salt-affected soils, and satellite-derived vegetation index (NDVI), salinity index (NDSI) and waterlogging index (NSWI). This methodology was tested for identification and delineation of area of low productivity in the Gautam Buddha Nagar district (Uttar Pradesh). It was found that the area affected by this problem lies mainly in Dankaur and Jewar blocks of the district. The problem area was verified with ground data and was found to be approximately 78% accurate. The methodology has potential to be used in other irrigation commands in the country to obtain reliable spatial data on low crop productivity.

Keywords: remote sensing, GIS, salt affected soil, crop productivity, Gautam Buddha Nagar

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Authors: Kartikey Gupta

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Global warming and environmental degradation are at their peak today, with the years after 2000A.D. giving way to 15 hottest years in terms of average temperatures. In India, much of the standard temperature measuring equipment are located in ‘developed’ urban areas, hence showing us an incomplete picture in terms of the climate across many rural areas, which comprises most of the landmass. This study showcases data studied by the author since 3 years at Vatsalya’s Children’s village, in outskirts of Jaipur, Rajasthan, India; in the midst of semi-arid topography, where consistently huge temperature differences of up to 15.8 degrees Celsius from local Jaipur weather only 30 kilometers away, are stunning yet scary at the same time, encouraging analysis of where the natural climatic pattern is heading due to rapid unrestricted urbanization. Record-breaking data presented in this project enforces the need to discuss causes and recovery techniques. This research further explores how and to what extent we are causing phenomenal disturbances in the natural meteorological pattern by urban growth. Detailed data observations using a standardized ambient weather station at study site and comparing it with closest airport weather data, evaluating the patterns and differences, show striking differences in temperatures, wind patterns and even rainfall quantity, especially during high-pressure zone days. Winter-time lows dip to 8 degrees below freezing with heavy frost and ice, while only 30 kms away minimum figures barely touch single-digit temperatures. Human activity is having an unprecedented effect on climatic patterns in record-breaking trends, which is a warning of what may follow in the next 15-25 years for the next generation living in cities, and a serious exploration into possible solutions is a must.

Keywords: climate change, meteorology, urban heat island, urbanization

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Authors: Laila Nassiri, Aziza Irhza, Jamal Ibijbijen, Fouad Rachidi, Ghizlane Echchgadda

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The introduction of agroecological practices in ecosystems can contribute to meeting the challenges posed by the diversion of current agricultural production systems towards efficient production methods that are more respectful of the environment, including a reasoned use of inputs and resources. Intercropping is one of these practices that requires the production of two or more crops on the same plot and during the same growing season. Organic fertilization also can contribute to increase the yield due to the potential availability of nutrients. The objective of this work is to study the effect of intercropping and organic fertilization, which are two important practices of agroecology, on potato yield. Intercropping of potato and faba bean was carried out at the Agroecology and Environment platform (ENA, Meknes). The soil is silty-clay, the climate is warm with an average temperature of 17.1°C, and the annual average rainfall of 511mm. Four treatments were tested: Potato sole crop (T1), potato + organic fertilization (T2), Potato + faba bean (T3), Potato + faba bean + organic fertilization (T4). The results showed that there is a significant effect of the treatment on the evolution of the agronomical characters studied, especially the number of leaves and the yield. The number of stems at t0 was equal to 1 in all treatments; it began to grow after 30 days from the date of sowing with a slight increase in treatments containing organic fertilization (T2-T4), then it stabilized 60 days after sowing. In terms of the mean value of the number of leaves, a significant difference was noted between the treatments, the highest value was recorded in treatment T2. The T2 treatment showed the highest average yield, followed by the control (T1). As for the yield, treatments T2 and T1 recorded the highest number of tubers. In order to evaluate two of the practices of agroecology, this work focuses on the evaluation of the effect of intercropping and organic fertilization on the growth and yield parameters of the potato. The results obtained show that agroecological practices have a significant effect on the measured parameters.

Keywords: agroecology, intercropping, organic fertilization, potato yield

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Authors: A. S. Lunev, A. A. Larenkov, O. E. Klementyeva, G. E. Kodina

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Background and aims: 68Ga-citrate is one of prospective radiopharmaceutical for PET-imaging of inflammation and infection. 68Ga-citrate is 67Ga-citrate analogue using since 1970s for SPECT-imaging. There's known rebinding reaction occurs past Ga-citrate injection and gallium (similar iron Fe3+) binds with blood transferrin. Then radiolabeled protein complex is delivered to pathological foci (inflammation/infection sites). But excessive gallium bindings with transferrin are cause of slow blood clearance, long accumulation time in foci (24-72 h) and exception of application possibility of the short-lived gallium-68 (T½ = 68 min). Injection of additional chemical agents (e.g. Fe3+ compounds) competing with radioactive gallium to the blood transferrin joining (blocking of its metal binding capacity) is one of the ways to solve formulated problem. This phenomenon can be used for correction of 68Ga-citrate pharmacokinetics for increasing of the blood clearance and accumulation in foci. The aim of real studying is research of effect of stable Fe-citrate on 68Ga-citrate tissue distribution. Materials and methods: 68Ga-citrate without/with extra injection of stable Fe-citrate (III) was injected nonlinear mice with inflammation models (aseptic soft tissue inflammation, lung infection, osteomyelitis). PET/X-RAY Genisys4 (Sofie Bioscience, USA) was used for non-invasive PET imaging (for 30, 60, 120 min past injection 68Ga-citrate) with subsequent reconstruction of imaging and their analysis (value of clearance, distribution volume). Scanning time is 10 min. Results and conclusions: I. v. injection of stable Fe-citrate blocks the metal-binding capability of transferrin serum and allows decreasing gallium-68 radioactivity in blood significantly and increasing accumulation in inflammation (3-5 time). It allows receiving more informative PET-images of inflammation early (for 30-60 min after injection). Pharmacokinetic parameters prove it. Noted there is no statistically significant difference between 68Ga-citrate accumulation for different inflammation model because PET imaging is indication of pathological processes and is not their identification.

Keywords: 68Ga-citrate, Fe-citrate, PET imaging, mice, inflammation, infection

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Authors: Yuzhen Hu, Sirui Wang

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As a training base for intellectual talents, universities have a large number of students. Teaching is a primary activity in universities, and during the teaching process, a large number of people gather both inside and outside the teaching buildings, posing a strong risk of close contact. The class schedule is the fundamental basis for teaching activities in universities and plays a crucial role in the management of teaching order. Different class schedules can lead to varying degrees of indoor gatherings and trajectories of class attendees. In recent years, highly contagious diseases have frequently occurred worldwide, and how to reduce the risk of infection has always been a hot issue related to public safety. "Reducing gatherings" is one of the core measures in epidemic prevention and control, and it can be controlled through scientific scheduling in specific environments. Therefore, the scientific prevention and control goal can be achieved by considering the reduction of the risk of excessive gathering of people during the course schedule arrangement. Firstly, we address the issue of personnel gathering in various pathways on campus, with the goal of minimizing congestion and maximizing teaching effectiveness, establishing a nonlinear mathematical model. Next, we design an improved genetic algorithm, incorporating real-time evacuation operations based on tracking search and multidimensional positive gradient cross-mutation operations, considering the characteristics of outdoor crowd evacuation. Finally, we apply undergraduate course data from a university in Harbin to conduct a case study. It compares and analyzes the effects of algorithm improvement and optimization of gathering situations and explores the impact of path blocking on the degree of gathering of individuals on other pathways.

Keywords: the university timetabling problem, risk prevention, genetic algorithm, risk control

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Authors: Shengxin Yu

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Earthquakes can cause varying degrees of damage to building and bridge structures. Traditional laminated natural rubber bearings (NRB) exhibit inadequate energy dissipation and restraint, particularly under near-fault ground motions, resulting in excessive displacements in the superstructure. This paper presents a composite natural rubber bearing (NFUD-NRB) incorporating two types of shape memory alloy (SMA) U-shaped dampers (UD). The bearing exhibits adjustable features, predominantly characterized by partial self-centering and multi-level energy dissipation, facilitated by nickel-titanium-based SMA (NiTi-SMA) and iron-based SMA (Fe-SMA) UDs. The hysteresis characteristics of NFUD-NRB can be tailored by manipulating the configuration of NiTi-SMA and Fe-SMA UDs. Firstly, the proposed bearing's geometric configuration and working principle are introduced. The rationality of the modeling strategy for the bearing is validated through existing experimental results. Parameterized numerical simulations are subsequently performed to investigate the partially self-centering behavior of NFUD-NRB. The findings indicate that NFUD-NRB can attain the anticipated nonlinear behavior and deliver adequate energy dissipation. Finally, the impact of NFUD-NRB on improving the seismic resilience of highway bridges is examined using the OpenSees software, with particular emphasis on the seismic performance of NFUD-NRB under near-fault ground motions. System-level analysis reveals that bridge systems equipped with NFUD-NRBs exhibit satisfactory residual deformations and higher energy dissipation than those equipped with traditional NRBs. Moreover, NFUD-NRB markedly mitigates the detrimental impacts of near-fault ground motions on the main structure of bridges.

Keywords: partially self-centering behavior, energy dissipation, natural rubber bearing, shape memory alloy, U-shaped damper, numerical investigation, near-fault ground motion

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Authors: Xharavina V., Gallopeni F., Ahmeti K.

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Stuttered speech is filled with intermittent sound prolongations and/or rapid part word repetitions. Oftentimes, these aberrant acoustic behaviors are associated with intermittent physical tension and struggle behaviors such as head jerks, arm jerks, finger tapping, excessive eye-blinks, etc. Additionally, the jarring nature of acoustic and physical manifestations that often accompanies moderate-severe stuttering may induce negative emotional responses in listeners, which alters communication between the person who stutters and their listeners. However, researches for the influence of negative emotions in the communication and for physical reaction are limited. Therefore, to compare psycho-physiological responses of fluent adults, while listening the speech of adults who speak fluency and adults who stutter, are necessary. This study comprises the experimental method, with total of 104 participants (average age-20 years old, SD=2.1), divided into 3 groups. All participants self-reported no impairments in speech, language, or hearing. Exploring the responses of the participants, there were used two records speeches; a voice who speaks fluently and the voice who stutters. Heartbeats and the pulse were measured by the digital blood pressure monitor called 'Tensoval', as a physiological response to the fluent and stuttering sample. Meanwhile, the emotional responses of participants were measured by the self-reporting questionnaire (Steenbarger, 2001). Results showed an increase in heartbeats during the stuttering speech compared with the fluent sample (p < 0.5). The listeners also self-reported themselves as more alive, unhappy, nervous, repulsive, sad, tense, distracted and upset when listening the stuttering words versus the words of the fluent adult (where it was reported to experience positive emotions). These data support the notions that speech with stuttering can bring a psycho-physical reaction to the listeners. Speech pathologists should be aware that listeners show intolerable physiological reactions to stuttering that remain visible over time.

Keywords: emotional, physiological, stuttering, fluent speech

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Authors: Ozen Asut, Gulifeiya Abuduxike, Imge Begendi, Mustafa O. Canatan, Merve Colak, Gizem Ozturk, Lara Tasan, Ahmed Waraiet, Songul A. Vaizoglu, Sanda Cali

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Obesity among children and adolescents is one of the critical public health problems worldwide. Internet addiction is one of the sedentary behaviors that cause obesity due to the excessive screen time and reduced physical activities. We aimed to examine the relationships between the screen time, internet addiction and other lifestyle behaviors with obesity among high school students in the Near East College in Nicosia, Northern Cyprus. A cross-sectional study conducted among 469 secondary school students, mean age 11.95 (SD, 0.81) years. A self-administrated questionnaire was applied to assess the screen time and lifestyle behaviors. The Turkish adopted version of short-form of internet addiction test was used to assess internet addiction problems. Height and weight were measured to calculate BMI and classified based on the BMI percentiles for sex and age. Descriptive analysis, Chi-Square test, and multivariate regression analysis were done. Of all, 17.2% of the participants were overweight and obese, and 18.1% had internet addictions, while 40.7% of them reported having screen time more than two hours. After adjusting the analysis for age and sex, eating snacks while watching television (OR, 3.04; 95% CI, 1.28-7.21), self- perceived body weight (OR, 24.9; 95% CI, 9.64-64.25) and having a play station in the room (OR, 4.6; 95% CI, 1.85 - 11.42) were significantly associated with obesity. Screen time (OR, 4.68; 95% CI, 2.61-8.38; p=0.000) and having a computer in bedroom (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.01- 2.87; p=0.046) were significantly associated with internet addiction, whereas parent’s compliant regarding the lengthy technology use (OR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.11-0.46; p=0.000) was found to be a protective factor against internet addiction. Prolonged screen time, internet addiction, sedentary lifestyles, and reduced physical and social activities are interrelated, multi-dimensional factors that lead to obesity among children and adolescents. A family - school-based integrated approach should be implemented to tackle obesity problems.

Keywords: adolescents, internet addiction, lifestyle, Northern Cyprus, obesity, screen time

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Authors: Luojie Tang

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Riverside space is an important public space and ecological corridor in urban areas, but mountainous urban rivers are often overlooked due to their deep valleys and poor accessibility. This article takes the Qing Shui Xi River in Chongqing as an example, and through long-term field inspections, measurements, interviews, and online surveys, summarizes the problems of poor accessibility, limited space for renovation, lack of waterfront facilities, excessive artificial intervention, low average runoff, severe river water pollution, and difficulty in integrated watershed management in riverside space. Based on the current situation and drawing on relevant experiences, this article summarizes the design methods for riverside space in deep valley rivers in mountainous urban areas. Regarding spatial design techniques, the article emphasizes the importance of integrating waterfront spaces into the urban public space system and vertical linkages. Furthermore, the article suggests different design methods and improvement strategies for the already developed areas and new development areas. Specifically, the article proposes a planning and design strategy of "protection" and "empowerment" for new development areas and an updating and transformation strategy of "improvement" and "revitalization" for already developed areas. In terms of ecological restoration methods, the article suggests three focus points: increasing the runoff of urban rivers, raising the landscape water level during dry seasons, and restoring vegetation and wetlands in the riverbank buffer zone while protecting the overall pattern of the watershed. Additionally, the article presents specific design details of the Qingshuixi River to illustrate the proposed design and restoration techniques.

Keywords: deep-cut river, design method, mountainous city, Qingshuixi river in Chongqing, waterfront space design

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Authors: Philip A. Moore Jr., Jerry Martin, Hong Li

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Research has shown that over half of the nitrogen (N) excreted from broiler chickens is emitted to the atmosphere before the manure is removed from the barns, resulting in air and water pollution, as well as the loss of a valuable fertilizer resource. The objective of this study was to determine the fertilizer efficiency of N captured from the exhaust air from poultry houses using acid scrubbers. This research was conducted using 24 plots located on a Captina silt loam soil. There were six treatments: (1) unfertilized control, (2) aluminum sulfate (alum) scrubber solution, (3) potassium bisulfate scrubber solution, (4) sodium bisulfate scrubber solution, (5) sulfuric acid scrubber solution and (6) ammonium nitrate fertilizer dissolved in water. There were four replications per treatment in a randomized block design. The scrubber solutions were obtained from acid scrubbers attached to exhaust fans on commercial broiler houses. All N sources were applied at an application rate equivalent to 112 kg N ha⁻¹. Forage yields were measured five times throughout the growing season. Five months after the fertilizer sources were applied, a rainfall simulation study was conducted to determine the potential effects on phosphorus (P) runoff. Forage yields were significantly higher in plots fertilized with scrubber solutions from potassium bisulfate and sodium bisulfate than plots fertilized with scrubber solutions made from alum or sulfuric acid or ammonium nitrate, which were higher than the controls (7.61, 7.46, 6.87, 6.72, 6.45, and 5.12 Mg ha ⁻¹, respectively). Forage N uptake followed similar trends as yields. Phosphorus runoff and water soluble P was significantly lower in plots fertilized with the scrubber solutions made from aluminum sulfate. This study demonstrates that N captured using ammonia scrubbers is as good or possibly better than commercial ammonium nitrate fertilizer.

Keywords: air quality, ammonia emissions, nitrogen fertilizer, poultry

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Authors: C. B. Masera, M. Imprialou, L. Budd, C. Morton

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Even though signalised intersections are necessary for urban road traffic management, they can act as bottlenecks and disrupt traffic operations. Interrupted traffic flow causes congestion, delays, stop-and-go conditions (i.e. excessive acceleration/deceleration) and longer journey times. Vehicle and infrastructure connectivity offers the potential to provide improved new services with additional functions of assisting drivers. This paper focuses on one of the applications of vehicle-to-infrastructure communication namely Green Light Optimal Speed Advisory (GLOSA). To assess the effectiveness of GLOSA in the urban road network, an integrated microscopic traffic simulation framework is built into VISSIM software. Vehicle movements and vehicle-infrastructure communications are simulated through the interface of External Driver Model. A control algorithm is developed for recommending an optimal speed that is continuously updated in every time step for all vehicles approaching a signal-controlled point. This algorithm allows vehicles to pass a traffic signal without stopping or to minimise stopping times at a red phase. This study is performed with all connected vehicles at 100% penetration rate. Conventional vehicles are also simulated in the same network as a reference. A straight road segment composed of two opposite directions with two traffic lights per lane is studied. The simulation is implemented under 150 vehicles per hour and 200 per hour traffic volume conditions to identify how different traffic densities influence the benefits of GLOSA. The results indicate that traffic flow is improved by the application of GLOSA. According to this study, vehicles passed through the traffic lights more smoothly, and waiting times were reduced by up to 28 seconds. Average delays decreased for the entire network by 86.46% and 83.84% under traffic densities of 150 vehicles per hour per lane and 200 vehicles per hour per lane, respectively.

Keywords: connected vehicles, GLOSA, intelligent transport systems, vehicle-to-infrastructure communication

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Geraldine Ambe

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Cameroon is a country in a country in Central Africa. Before the first World War, Germany colonized Cameroon, including some parts of Gabon, Chad, Nigeria, and the Central African Republic. After the war, the United Nations divided most of the colony into Britain and France. In 1960, Eastern Cameroon (‘La Republique du Cameroon’) gained its independence from France while British Southern Cameroons obtained its independence from Britain. The two entities agreed to live together as a federal state officially called the Federal Republic of Cameroon. In 1962, the name of the name of the country was changed from the Federal Republic of Cameroon to the United Republic of Cameroon, while the Prime Minister of Western Cameroon was moved to Yaounde. In 1984, President Paul Biya singlehandedly changed the name to the Republic of Cameroon, implying that Southern Cameroon is not recognized in the union again. From the words of Am Cohen, the two territories came together to form a federal government with one currency, one army, and one foreign policy like states in the United States of America. However, the name Republic of Cameroon (‘La Republique du Cameroun’) does not recognize BSC, and this is exactly what has been practiced: politics of exclusion and excessive centralization in Yaounde. In 2016, teachers and Lawyers started strikes to call the attention of the government on the inhalation of the English culture/people. They were greeted with guns, causing the radicalization of the youths. The civil society came together to form a union to address the issues facing the people, and the government took their leaders and sentenced them to live imprisonment. The consequence was a civil war with nobody to dialogue with. Out of Cameroon, more than half a million people from BSC have been taking dangerous trips through the air, land, and sea. In the jungles and the deserts, the snow of Europe, these people have been seen for the last 4 years. This paper will present some personalities, political fractions, and their stands of decentralization, federalism, and independence as the war continues. The paper will further look at the consequence of this crisis on migration in Central and Eastern Europe.

Keywords: British Southern Cameroons, decolonization, Second World War, dialogue, civil war, immigration

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Mst. Nilufa Sultana, Shatirah Akib, Muhammad Aqeel Ashraf, Mohamed Roseli Zainal Abidin

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Most people today are aware that global Climate change, is not just a scientific theory but also a fact with worldwide consequences. Global climate change is due to rapid urbanization, industrialization, high population growth and current vulnerability of the climatic condition. Water is becoming scarce as a result of global climate change. To mitigate the problem arising due to global climate change and its drought effect, harvesting rainwater from green roofs, an environmentally-friendly and versatile technology, is becoming one of the best assessment criteria and gaining attention in Malaysia. This paper addresses the sustainability of green roofs and examines the quality of water harvested from green roofs in comparison to rainwater. The factors that affect the quality of such water, taking into account, for example, roofing materials, climatic conditions, the frequency of rainfall frequency and the first flush. A green roof was installed on the Humid Tropic Centre (HTC) is a place of the study on monitoring program for urban Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (MSMA), Eco-Hydrological Project in Kualalumpur, and the rainwater was harvested and evaluated on the basis of four parameters i.e., conductivity, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH and temperature. These parameters were found to fall between Class I and Class III of the Interim National Water Quality Standards (INWQS) and the Water Quality Index (WQI). Some preliminary treatment such as disinfection and filtration could likely to improve the value of these parameters to class I. This review paper clearly indicates that there is a need for more research to address other microbiological and chemical quality parameters to ensure that the harvested water is suitable for use potable water for domestic purposes. The change in all physical, chemical and microbiological parameters with respect to storage time will be a major focus of future studies in this field.

Keywords: Green roofs, INWQS, MSMA-SME, rainwater harvesting, water treatment, water quality parameter, WQI

Procedia PDF Downloads 533

Authors: Wen-Ting Wang, Wei-An Tsai, Rong-Hong Hsieh

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Long term taking high fat diet can lead to over production of energy, result in accumulation of body fat, dyslipidemia and increased lipid metabolism in the body. Over metabolism of lipid results in excessive reactive oxygen species and oxidative stress, may also cause mitochondrial dysfunction and cell death. Krill oil, fish oil and linseed oil are good sources of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA). The present study investigated the effect of high fat diet and various oil rich of n-3 fatty acids on mitochondrial function and cell membrane composition. Six-weeks old male Spraque-Dawley rats were randomly divided into 8 groups including: control group, high fat diet group, low dosage and high dosage krill oil group, low dosage and high dosage fish oil group, and low dosage and high dosage linseed oil group. After 12 weeks of experimental period, the low dosage krill oil, fish oil group and linseed oil group with different dosage prevented mitochondrial dysfunction caused by high fat diet. The supplementation of different oils increased plasma, erythrocyte and mitochondrial n-3/n-6 ratio and further increased the proportion of PUFA in erythrocyte and mitochondrial membrane. It also decreased serum triglyceride (TG) and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) concentration. However, there was no significant change in serum total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), biomarker of liver function, glucose, insulin, homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and plasma malonadialdehyde (MDA) concentration when compared with high fat diet group. The supplementation of different sources of n-3 PUFA can maintain mitochondrial function and modulate cell membrane fatty acid composition in high fat diet conditions, and there is a positive relationship between mitochondrial function and mitochondrial membrane composition.

Keywords: fish oil, linseed oil, mitochondria, n-3 PUFA

Procedia PDF Downloads 414

Authors: Liana Gomide, Juliana Rodrigues

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The morphology of the foot defines its mode of operation and a biomechanical reform indispensable for a symmetrical distribution of plantar pressures in order not to overload some of its components in isolation. High plantar pressures at specific points in the foot may be a causal factor in several orthopedic disorders that affect the feet such as pain and stress fracture. With digital baro-podometry equipment one can observe an intensity of pressures along the entire foot and quantify some of the movements, such as a subtalar pronation present in the midfoot region. Although, they are involved in microtraumas. In clinical practice, excessive movement has been limited with the use of different taping techniques applied on the plantar arch. Thus, the objective of the present study was to analyze and compare the influence of the inelastic and elastic taping on the distribution of plantar pressure of runners pronators. This is a randomized clinical trial and blind-crossover. Twenty (20) male subjects, mean age 33 ± 7 years old, mean body mass of 71 ± 7 kg, mean height of 174 ± 6 cm, were included in the study. A data collection was carried out by a single research through barop-odometry equipment - Tekscan, model F-scan mobile. The tests were performed at three different times. In the first, an initial barop-odometric evaluation was performed, without a bandage application, with edges at a speed of 9.0 km/h. In the second and third moments, the inelastic or elastic taping was applied consecutively, according to the definition defined in the randomization. As results, it was observed that both as inelastic and elastic taping, provided significant reductions in contact pressure and peak pressure values when compared to the moment without a taping. However, an elastic taping was more effective in decreasing contact pressure (no bandage = 714 ± 201, elastic taping = 690 ± 210 and inelastic taping = 716 ± 180) and no peak pressure in the midfoot region (no bandage = 1490 ± 42, elastic taping = 1273 ± 323 and inelastic taping = 1487 ± 437). It is possible to conclude that it is an elastic taping provided by pressure in the middle region, thereby reducing the subtalar pronunciation event during the run.

Keywords: elastic taping, inelastic taping, running, subtalar pronation

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: B. J. Babalola, M. B. Shongwe

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Spark Plasma Sintering technique is a novel processing method that produces limited grain growth and highly dense variety of materials; alloys, superalloys, and carbides just to mention a few. However, initial particle size and spark plasma sintering parameters are factors which influence the grain growth and mechanical properties of sintered materials. Ni-Cr alloys are regarded as the most promising alloys for aerospace turbine blades, owing to the fact that they meet the basic requirements of desirable mechanical strength at high temperatures and good resistance to oxidation. The conventional method of producing this alloy often results in excessive grain growth and porosity levels that are detrimental to its mechanical properties. The effect of sintering temperature was evaluated on the microstructure and mechanical properties of the nanostructured Ni-17Cr alloy. Nickel and chromium powder were milled using high energy ball milling independently for 30 hours, milling speed of 400 revs/min and ball to powder ratio (BPR) of 10:1. The milled powders were mixed in the composition of Nickel having 83 wt % and chromium, 17 wt %. This was sintered at varied temperatures from 800°C, 900°C, 1000°C, 1100°C and 1200°C. The structural characteristics such as porosity, grain size, fracture surface and hardness were analyzed by scan electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction, Archimedes densitometry, micro-hardness tester. The corresponding results indicated an increase in the densification and hardness property of the alloy as the temperature increases. The residual porosity of the alloy reduces with respect to the sintering temperature and in contrast, the grain size was enhanced. The study of the mechanical properties, including hardness, densification shows that optimum properties were obtained for the sintering temperature of 1100°C. The advantages of high sinterability of Ni-17Cr alloy using milled powders and microstructural details were discussed.

Keywords: densification, grain growth, milling, nanostructured materials, sintering temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 402

Authors: Melis Inalpulat, Tugce Civelek, Unal Kizil, Levent Genc

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Livestock production is one of the most important components of rural economy. Due to the urban expansion, rural areas close to expanding cities transform into urban districts during the time. However, the legislations have some restrictions related to livestock farming in such administrative units since they tend to create environmental concerns like odor problems resulted from excessive manure production. Therefore, the existing animal operations should be moved from the settlement areas. This paper was focused on determination of suitable lands for livestock production in Canakkale province of Turkey using remote sensing (RS) data and GIS techniques. To achieve the goal, Formosat 2 and Landsat 8 imageries, Aster DEM, and 1:25000 scaled soil maps, village boundaries, and village livestock inventory records were used. The study was conducted using suitability analysis which evaluates the land in terms of limitations and potentials, and suitability range was categorized as Suitable (S) and Non-Suitable (NS). Limitations included the distances from main and crossroads, water resources and settlements, while potentials were appropriate values for slope, land use capability and land use land cover status. Village-based S land distribution results were presented, and compared with livestock inventories. Results showed that approximately 44230 ha area is inappropriate because of the distance limitations for roads and etc. (NS). Moreover, according to LULC map, 71052 ha area consists of forests, olive and other orchards, and thus, may not be suitable for building such structures (NS). In comparison, it was found that there are a total of 1228 ha S lands within study area. The village-based findings indicated that, in some villages livestock production continues on NS areas. Finally, it was suggested that organized livestock zones may be constructed to serve in more than one village after the detailed analysis complemented considering also political decisions, opinion of the local people, etc.

Keywords: GIS, livestock, LULC, remote sensing, suitable lands

Procedia PDF Downloads 298

Authors: Anik Sarminingsih, Krishna V. Pradana

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The failure of flood control system can be caused by various factors, such as not considering the uncertainty of designed flood causing the capacity of the flood control system is exceeded. The presence of the uncertainty factor is recognized as a serious issue in hydrological studies. Uncertainty in hydrological analysis is influenced by many factors, starting from reading water elevation data, rainfall data, selection of method of analysis, etc. In hydrological modeling selection of models and parameters corresponding to the watershed conditions should be evaluated by the hydraulic model in the river as a drainage channel. River cross-section capacity is the first defense in knowing the reliability of the flood control system. Reliability of river capacity describes the potential magnitude of flood risk. Case study in this research is Wulan River in Central Java. This river occurring flood almost every year despite some efforts to control floods such as levee, floodway and diversion. The flood-affected areas include several sub-districts, mainly in Kabupaten Kudus and Kabupaten Demak. First step is analyze the frequency of discharge observation from Klambu weir which have time series data from 1951-2013. Frequency analysis is performed using several distribution frequency models such as Gumbel distribution, Normal, Normal Log, Pearson Type III and Log Pearson. The result of the model based on standard deviation overlaps, so the maximum flood discharge from the lower return periods may be worth more than the average discharge for larger return periods. The next step is to perform a hydraulic analysis to evaluate the reliability of river capacity based on the flood discharge resulted from several methods. The selection of the design flood discharge of flood control system is the result of the method closest to bankfull capacity of the river.

Keywords: design flood, hydrological model, reliability, uncertainty, Wulan river

Procedia PDF Downloads 294

Authors: Shang-Hsin Ou, Yang-Chun Lin, Ke-Hao Cheng

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The year 2021 marked a historic drought in Taiwan, posing unprecedented challenges due to record-low rainfall and inadequate reservoir storage. The central region experienced water scarcity, leading to the implementation of "Groundwater Utilization at Construction Sites" for drought-resilient livelihood water supply. This study focuses on the establishment process of temporary groundwater treatment plants at construction sites in Taichung City, serving as a reference for future emergency response and the utilization of construction site groundwater. To identify suitable sites for groundwater reuse projects, site selection operations were carried out based on relevant water quality regulations and assessment principles. Subsequently, the planning and design of temporary water treatment plants were conducted, considering the water quality, quantity, and on-site conditions of groundwater wells associated with construction projects. The study consolidates the major water treatment facilities at each site and addresses encountered challenges during the establishment process. Practical insights gained from operating temporary groundwater treatment plants are presented, including improvements related to stable water quality, water quantity, equipment operation, and hydraulic control. In light of possible future droughts, this study provides an outlook and recommendations to expedite and improve the setup of groundwater treatment plants at construction sites. This includes considering on-site water abstraction, treatment, and distribution conditions. The study's results aim to offer practical guidelines for effectively establishing and managing such treatment plants, while offering experiences and recommendations for other regions facing similar emergencies, water shortages, and drought situations. These endeavors contribute to ensuring sustainable water supply for drought-resilient livelihoods and maintaining societal stability.

Keywords: drought resilience, groundwater treatment, construction site, water supply

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: K. N. Ashna

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Lightweight fills are a viable alternative where weak soils such as soft clay, peat, and loose silt are encountered. Materials such as Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) geo-foam, plastics, tire wastes, rubber wastes have been used along with soil in order to obtain a lightweight fill. Out of these, Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) geo-foam has gained wide popularity in civil engineering over the past years due to its wide variety of applications. It is extremely lightweight, durable and is available in various densities to meet the strength requirements. It can be used as backfill behind retaining walls to reduce lateral load, as a fill over soft clay or weak soils to prevent the excessive settlements and to reduce seismic forces. Geo-foam is available in block form as well as beads form. In this project Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) beads of various diameters and varying densities were mixed along with sand to study their lightweight as well as strength properties. Four types of EPS beads were used 1mm, 2mm, 3-7 mm and a mix of 1-7 mm. In this project, EPS beads were varied at .25%, .5%, .75% and 1% by weight of sand. A water content of 10% by weight of sand was added to prevent segregation of the mixture. Unconsolidated Unconfined (UU) tri-axial test was conducted at 100kPa, 200 kPa and 300 kPa and angle of internal friction, and cohesion was obtained. Unit weight of the mix was obtained for a relative density of 65%. The results showed that by increasing the EPS content by weight, maximum deviator stress, unit weight, angle of internal friction and initial elastic modulus decreased. An optimum EPS bead content was arrived at by considering the strength as well as the unit weight. The stress-strain behaviour of the mix was found to be dependent on type of bead, bead content and density of the beads. Finally, regression equations were developed to predict the initial elastic modulus of the mix.

Keywords: expanded polystyrene beads, geofoam, lightweight fills, stress-strain behavior, triaxial test

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Sherly M. A., Subhankar Karmakar, Terence Chan, Christian Rau

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Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing widespread devastation, economic damage and threat to human lives. Hydrologic impacts of climate change and intensification of urbanization are two root causes of increased flood occurrences, and recent research trends are oriented towards understanding these aspects. Due to rapid urbanization, population of cities across the world has increased exponentially leading to improperly planned developments. Climate change due to natural and anthropogenic activities on our environment has resulted in spatiotemporal changes in rainfall patterns. The combined effect of both aggravates the vulnerability of urban populations to floods. In this context, an efficient and effective flood risk management with its core component as flood risk mapping is essential in prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Urban flood risk mapping involves zoning of an urban region based on its flood risk, which depicts the spatiotemporal pattern of frequency and severity of hazards, exposure to hazards, and degree of vulnerability of the population in terms of socio-economic, environmental and infrastructural aspects. Although vulnerability is a key component of risk, its assessment and mapping is often less advanced than hazard mapping and quantification. A synergic effort from technical experts and social scientists is vital for the effectiveness of flood risk management programs. Despite an increasing volume of quality research conducted on urban flood risk, a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach towards flood risk mapping still remains neglected due to which many of the input parameters and definitions of flood risk concepts are imprecise. Thus, the objectives of this review are to introduce and precisely define the relevant input parameters, concepts and terms in urban flood risk mapping, along with its methodology, current status and limitations. The review also aims at providing thought-provoking insights to potential future researchers and flood management professionals.

Keywords: flood risk, flood hazard, flood vulnerability, flood modeling, urban flooding, urban flood risk mapping

Procedia PDF Downloads 590

Authors: O. Benabdeljelil, A. Karioun, S. Amami, R. Rouger, M. Hamidine

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A model for preventing the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector is presented. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a producer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, the main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is determined from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. The model also requires accurate pricing of commodity at N+1. Therefore, a pricing model is developed using 3 state variables, namely the spot price, the difference between the mean-term and the long-term forward price, and the long-term structure of the model. The use of historical data enables to calibrate the parameters of state variables, and allows the pricing of commodity. Application to beet sugar underlines pricer precision. Indeed, the percentage of accuracy between computed result and real world is 99,5%. Optimal premium is then deduced and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect its harvest. The application to beet production in French Oise department illustrates the reliability of present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost any agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.

Keywords: agriculture, production model, optimal price, meteorological factors, 3-factor model, parameter calibration, forward price

Procedia PDF Downloads 376