Search results for: model building

Authors: Innocent Pangapanga, Eric Mungatana

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Tropical cyclones–related floods (TCRFs) in Malawi have devastating effects on smallholder agriculture, thereby threatening the food security agenda, which is already constrained by poor agricultural innovations, low use of improved varieties, and unaffordable inorganic fertilizers, and fragmenting landholding sizes. Accordingly, households have engineered and indigenously implemented sustainable landscape management (SLM) innovations to contain the adverse effects of TCRFs on farm productivity. This study, therefore, interrogated the efficacy of SLM adoption on farm productivity under varying TCRFs, while controlling for the potential selection bias and unobservable heterogeneity through the application of the Endogenous Switching Regression Model. In this study, we further investigated factors driving SLM adoption. Substantively, we found TCRFs reducing farm productivity by 31 percent, on the one hand, and influencing the adoption of SLM innovations by 27 percent, on the other hand. The study also observed that households that interacted SLM with TCRFs were more likely to enhance farm productivity by 24 percent than their counterparts. Interestingly, the study results further demonstrated that multiple adoptions of SLM-related innovations, including intercropping, agroforestry, and organic manure, enhanced farm productivity by 126 percent, suggesting promoting SLM adoption as a package to appropriately inform existing sustainable development goals’ agricultural productivity initiatives under intensifying TCRFs in the country.

Keywords: tropical cyclones–related floods, sustainable landscape management innovations, farm productivity, endogeneity, endogenous switching regression model, panel data, smallholder agriculture

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Authors: Charlotte Lucke

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This study contributes to the body of literature that analyzes and complicates oversimplified and sensationalized representations of trauma and violence through a close examination and complication of representations of perpetrators of domestic violence in the mass media. This study determines the ways the media frames perpetrators of domestic violence through a qualitative content analysis and socio-ecological approach to the perpetration of violence. While the qualitative analysis has not been carried out, through preliminary research, this study hypothesizes that the media represents perpetrators through tropes such as the 'predator' or 'offender,' or as a demonized 'other.' It is necessary to expose and work through such stereotypes because cultivation theory demonstrates that the mass media determines societal beliefs about and perceptions of the world. Thus, representations of domestic violence in the mass media can lead people to believe that perpetrators of violence are mere animals or criminals and overlook the trauma that many perpetrators experience. When the media represents perpetrators as pure evil, monsters, or absolute 'others,' it leaves out the complexities of what moves people to commit domestic violence. By analyzing and placing media representations of perpetrators into conversation with the socio-ecological approach to violence perpetration, this study complicates domestic violence stereotypes. The socio-ecological model allows researchers to consider the way the interplay between individuals and their families, friends, communities, and cultures can move people to act violently. Using this model, along with psychological and psychoanalytic approaches to the etiology of domestic violence, this paper argues that media stereotypes conceal the way people’s experiences of trauma, along with community and cultural norms, perpetuates the cycle of systemic trauma and violence in the home.

Keywords: domestic violence, media images, representing trauma, theorising trauma

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Authors: Rajendra Kumar

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We study the Electronic spectral density of a double coupled quantum dots sandwich between superconducting leads, where one of the superconducting leads (QD1) are connected with left superconductor lead and (QD1) also connected right superconductor lead. (QD1) and (QD2) are coupling to each other. The electronic spectral density through a quantum dots between superconducting leads having s-wave symmetry of the superconducting order parameter. Such junction is called superconducting –quantum dot (S-QD-S) junction. For this purpose, we have considered a renormalized Anderson model that includes the double coupled of the superconducting leads with the quantum dots level and an attractive BCS-type effective interaction in superconducting leads. We employed the Green’s function technique to obtain superconducting order parameter with the BCS framework and Ambegaoker-Baratoff formalism to analyze the electronic spectral density through such (S-QD-S) junction. It has been pointed out that electronic spectral density through such a junction is dominated by the attractive the paring interaction in the leads, energy of the level on the dot with respect to Fermi energy and also on the coupling parameter of the two in an essential way. On the basis of numerical analysis we have compared the theoretical results of electronic spectral density with the recent transport existing theoretical analysis. QDs is the charging energy that may give rise to effects based on the interplay of Coulomb repulsion and superconducting correlations. It is, therefore, an interesting question to ask how the discrete level spectrum and the charging energy affect the DC and AC Josephson transport between two superconductors coupled via a QD. In the absence of a bias voltage, a finite DC current can be sustained in such an S-QD-S by the DC Josephson effect.

Keywords: quantum dots, S-QD-S junction, BCS superconductors, Anderson model

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Authors: Chimmoe Fomo Michelle Larissa

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The challenges of cybersecurity in Africa are increasingly significant as the continent undergoes rapid digital transformation. With the rise of internet connectivity, mobile phone usage, and digital financial services, Africa faces unique cybersecurity threats. The significance of this study lies in understanding these threats and the multifaceted challenges that hinder effective cybersecurity measures across the continent. The methodologies employed in this study include a comprehensive analysis of existing cybersecurity frameworks in various African countries, surveys of key stakeholders in the digital ecosystem, and case studies of cybersecurity incidents. These methodologies aim to provide a detailed understanding of the current cybersecurity landscape, identify gaps in existing policies, and evaluate the effectiveness of implemented security measures. Major findings of the study indicate that Africa faces numerous cybersecurity challenges, including inadequate regulatory frameworks, insufficient cybersecurity awareness, and a shortage of skilled professionals. Additionally, the prevalence of cybercrime, such as financial fraud, data breaches, and ransomware attacks, exacerbates the situation. The study also highlights the role of international cooperation and regional collaboration in addressing these challenges and improving overall cybersecurity resilience. In conclusion, addressing cybersecurity challenges in Africa requires a multifaceted approach that involves strengthening regulatory frameworks, enhancing public awareness, and investing in cybersecurity education and training. The study underscores the importance of regional and international collaboration in building a robust cybersecurity infrastructure capable of mitigating the risks associated with the continent's digital growth.

Keywords: Africa, cybersecurity, challenges, digital infrastructure, cybercrime

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Authors: Bita Mohajernia, R. J. Urbanic

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Mold making techniques have focused on meeting the customers’ functional and process requirements; however, today, molds are increasing in size and sophistication, and are difficult to manufacture, transport, and set up due to their size and mass. Presently, mold weight saving techniques focus on pockets to reduce the mass of the mold, but the overall size is still large, which introduces costs related to the stock material purchase, processing time for process planning, machining and validation, and excess waste materials. Reducing the overall size of the mold is desirable for many reasons, but the functional requirements, tool life, and durability cannot be compromised in the process. It is proposed to use Finite Element Analysis simulation tools to model the forces, and pressures to determine where the material can be removed. The potential results of this project will reduce manufacturing costs. In this study, a light weight structure is defined by an optimal distribution of material to carry external loads. The optimization objective of this research is to determine methods to provide the optimum layout for the mold structure. The topology optimization method is utilized to improve structural stiffness while decreasing the weight using the OptiStruct software. The optimized CAD model is compared with the primary geometry of the mold from the NX software. Results of optimization show an 8% weight reduction while the actual performance of the optimized structure, validated by physical testing, is similar to the original structure.

Keywords: finite element analysis, plastic injection molding, topology optimization, weight reduction

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Authors: P. G. Siddheshwar, T. N. Sakshath

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In the paper we make linear and non-linear stability analyses of Rayleigh-Bénard convection of a Newtonian nanoliquid in a rotating medium (called as Rayleigh-Bénard-Taylor convection). Rigid-rigid isothermal boundaries are considered for investigation. Khanafer-Vafai-Lightstone single phase model is used for studying instabilities in nanoliquids. Various thermophysical properties of nanoliquid are obtained using phenomenological laws and mixture theory. The eigen boundary value problem is solved for the Rayleigh number using an analytical method by considering trigonometric eigen functions. We observe that the critical nanoliquid Rayleigh number is less than that of the base liquid. Thus the onset of convection is advanced due to the addition of nanoparticles. So, increase in volume fraction leads to advanced onset and thereby increase in heat transport. The amplitudes of convective modes required for estimating the heat transport are determined analytically. The tri-modal standard Lorenz model is derived for the steady state assuming small scale convective motions. The effect of rotation on the onset of convection and on heat transport is investigated and depicted graphically. It is observed that the onset of convection is delayed due to rotation and hence leads to decrease in heat transport. Hence, rotation has a stabilizing effect on the system. This is due to the fact that the energy of the system is used to create the component V. We observe that the amount of heat transport is less in the case of rigid-rigid isothermal boundaries compared to free-free isothermal boundaries.

Keywords: nanoliquid, rigid-rigid, rotation, single phase

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Authors: Gintarė Sauliutė, Gintaras Svecevičius

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Landfill leachates contain a number of persistent pollutants, including heavy metals. They have the ability to spread in ecosystems and accumulate in fish which most of them are classified as top-consumers of trophic chains. Fish are freely swimming organisms; but perhaps, due to their species-specific ecological and behavioral properties, they often prefer the most suitable biotopes and therefore, did not avoid harmful substances or environments. That is why it is necessary to evaluate the persistent pollutant dispersion in hydroecosystem using fish tissue metal concentration. In hydroecosystems of hybrid type (e.g. river-pond-river) the distance from the pollution source could be a perfect indicator of such a kind of metal distribution. The studies were carried out in the Kairiai landfill neighboring hybrid-type ecosystem which is located 5 km east of the Šiauliai City. Fish tissue (gills, liver, and muscle) metal concentration measurements were performed on two types of ecologically-different fishes according to their feeding characteristics: benthophagous (Gibel carp, roach) and predatory (Northern pike, perch). A number of mathematical models (linear, non-linear, using log and other transformations) have been applied in order to identify the most satisfactorily description of the interdependence between fish tissue metal concentration and the distance from the pollution source. However, the only one log-multiple regression model revealed the pattern that the distance from the pollution source is closely and positively correlated with metal concentration in all predatory fish tissues studied (gills, liver, and muscle).

Keywords: bioaccumulation in fish, heavy metals, hydroecosystem, landfill leachate, mathematical model

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Authors: Sabrina Rahman

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The Mosque is Islam’s most symbolic structure, as well as the expression of collective identity. From the explicit words of our Prophet, 'The earth has been created for me as a masjid and a place of purity, and whatever man from my Ummah finds himself in need of prayer, let him pray' (anywhere)! it is obvious that a devout Muslim does not require a defined space or structure for divine worship since the whole earth is his prayer house. Yet we see that from time immemorial man throughout the Muslim world has painstakingly erected innumerable mosques. However, mosque design spans time, crosses boundaries, and expresses cultures. It is a cultural manifestation as much as one based on a regional building tradition or a certain interpretation of religion. The trend to express physical signs of religion is not new. Physical forms seem to convey symbolic messages. However, in recent times physical forms of mosque architecture are dominantly demising from mosque architecture projects in Bangladesh. Dome & minaret, the most prominent symbol of the mosque, is replacing by contextual and contemporary improvisation rather than subcontinental mosque architecture practice of early fellows. Thus the recent mosque projects of the last 15 years established the contemporary architectural realm in their design. Contextually, spiritual lighting, the serenity of space, tranquility of outdoor spaces, the texture of materials is widely establishing a new genre of Muslim prayer space. A case study based research will lead to specify its significant factors of modernism. Based on the findings, the paper presents evidence of recent projects as well as a guideline for the future image of contemporary Mosque architecture in Bangladesh.

Keywords: contemporary architecture, modernism, prayer space, symbolism

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Authors: Nubwimana Rachel, Mugabowindekwe Maurice

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Trees play a crucial role in maintaining biodiversity and providing various ecological services. Traditional methods of counting trees are time-consuming, and there is a need for more efficient techniques. However, deep learning makes it feasible to identify the multi-scale elements hidden in aerial imagery. This research focuses on the application of deep learning techniques for tree detection and counting in both forest and non-forest areas through the exploration of the deep learning application for automated tree detection and counting using satellite imagery. The objective is to identify the most effective model for automated tree counting. We used different deep learning models such as YOLOV7, SSD, and UNET, along with Generative Adversarial Networks to generate synthetic samples for training and other augmentation techniques, including Random Resized Crop, AutoAugment, and Linear Contrast Enhancement. These models were trained and fine-tuned using satellite imagery to identify and count trees. The performance of the models was assessed through multiple trials; after training and fine-tuning the models, UNET demonstrated the best performance with a validation loss of 0.1211, validation accuracy of 0.9509, and validation precision of 0.9799. This research showcases the success of deep learning in accurate tree counting through remote sensing, particularly with the UNET model. It represents a significant contribution to the field by offering an efficient and precise alternative to conventional tree-counting methods.

Keywords: remote sensing, deep learning, tree counting, image segmentation, object detection, visualization

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Authors: Veronika Solopova, Oana-Iuliana Popescu, Tim Landgraf, Christoph Benzmüller

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Beginning in 2014, slowly building geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe led to a full-blown conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine that generated an unprecedented amount of news articles and data from social media data, reflecting the opposing ideologies and narratives as a background and the essence of the ongoing war. These polarized informational campaigns have led to countless mutual accusations of misinformation and fake news, shaping an atmosphere of confusion and mistrust for many readers all over the world. In this study, we analyzed scraped news articles from Ukrainian, Russian, Romanian and English-speaking news outlets, on the eve of 24th of February 2022, compared to day five of the conflict (28th of February), to see how the media influenced and mirrored the changes in public opinion. We also contrast the sources opposing and supporting the stands of the Russian government in Ukrainian, Russian and Romanian media spaces. In a data-driven way, we describe how the narratives are spread throughout Eastern and Central Europe. We present predictive linguistic features surrounding war propaganda. Our results indicate that there are strong similarities in terms of rhetoric strategies in the pro-Kremlin media in both Ukraine and Russia, which, while being relatively neutral according to surface structure, use aggressive vocabulary. This suggests that automatic propaganda identification systems have to be tailored for each new case, as they have to rely on situationally specific words. Both Ukrainian and Russian outlets lean towards strongly opinionated news, pointing towards the use of war propaganda in order to achieve strategic goals.

Keywords: linguistic, news, propaganda, Russia, ukraine

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Authors: Ek-Uma Imkome, Jintana Yunibhand, Waraporn Chaiyawat

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Background: Persons with schizophrenia patient and misusing methamphetamines suffering from social dysfunction that impact on their quality of life. Knowledge of factors related to social dysfunction will guide the effective intervention. Objectives: To determine the direct effect, indirect effect and total effect of an acerbate Psychotics’ Symptoms, Social Support, Stressful life events, Medication use self-efficacy impact on social dysfunction in Thai schizophrenic patient and methamphetamine misuse. Methods: Data were collected from schizophrenic and methamphetamine misuse patient by self report. A linear structural relationship was used to test the hypothesized path model. Results: The hypothesized model was found to fit the empirical data and explained 54% of the variance of the psychotic symptoms (X² = 114.35, df = 92, p-value = 0.05, X² /df = 1.24, GFI = 0.96, AGFI = 0.92, CFI = 1.00, NFI = 0.99, NNFI = 0.99, RMSEA = 0.02). The highest total effect on social dysfunction was psychotic symptoms (0.67, p<0.05). Medication use self-efficacy had a direct effect on psychotic symptoms (-0.25, p<0.01), and social support had direct effect on medication use self efficacy (0.36, p <0.01). Conclusions: Psychotic symptoms and stressful life events were the significance factors that influenced direct on social dysfunctioning. Therefore, interventions that are designed to manage these factors are crucial in order to enhance social functioning in this population.

Keywords: psychotic symptoms, methamphetamine, schizophrenia, stressful life events, social dysfunction, social support, medication use self efficacy

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Authors: Saba Gachpaz, Hamid Reza Heidari

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The sharp increase in population growth leads to more pressure on agricultural areas to satisfy the food supply. To achieve this, more resources should be consumed and, besides other environmental concerns, highlight sustainable agricultural development. Land-use management is a crucial factor in obtaining optimum productivity. Machine learning is a widely used technique in the agricultural sector, from yield prediction to customer behavior. This method focuses on learning and provides patterns and correlations from our data set. In this study, nine physical control factors, namely, soil classification, electrical conductivity, normalized difference water index (NDWI), groundwater level, elevation, annual precipitation, pH of water, annual mean temperature, and slope in the alluvial plain in Khuzestan (an agricultural hotspot in Iran) are used to decide the best agricultural land use for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture for ten different crops. For this purpose, each variable was imported into Arc GIS, and a raster layer was obtained. In the next level, by using training samples, all layers were imported into the python environment. A random forest model was applied, and the weight of each variable was specified. In the final step, results were visualized using a digital elevation model, and the importance of all factors for each one of the crops was obtained. Our results show that despite 62% of the study area being allocated to agricultural purposes, only 42.9% of these areas can be defined as a suitable class for cultivation purposes.

Keywords: land suitability, machine learning, random forest, sustainable agriculture

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Authors: Shramana Mondal

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As a city is growing in population, sprawl, and complexity, use of public spaces increases variably and thus ensuring safety for the people becomes an utmost priority. While active monitoring measures may be necessary in some places, urban design can play a major role in devising self-policing and encourage active public life. This paper aims to explore the various spatial and psychological reasons for the occurrence of crime and the role of ‘urban design’ to address this issue. In this research, the principles of urban design are examined, as well as projected on actual site by addressing the issue with urban design principles. In this review the sociological, psychological, typological and morphological factors are addressed which affect the safety of a space and the possible framing guidelines, controls and urban design strategies are explored to address a safe neighborhood. On the basis of statistical survey, the residential and street network of Malviya Nagar in Delhi is chosen as the area of demonstration. The programs inhibit a safe neighborhood and a movement network that are addressed based on the four principles of natural surveillance, territoriality, community building, and connectivity. The paper concludes with a discussion of the urban design as an effective tool by creating an intense active zone with mixed use feature to ensure throughout activity and also ensuring safe pedestrian zone by introducing sense of community feeling and territoriality thus achieving active, useful and public friendly space.

Keywords: crime, public life, safety, urban design

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Authors: Soumya Kedia, Puja Agarwala, Mahesh Tirumkudulu

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Linear stability analysis is performed for a radially expanding liquid sheet in the presence of a gas medium. A liquid sheet can break up because of the aerodynamic effect as well as its thinning. However, the study of the aforementioned effects is usually done separately as the formulation becomes complicated and is difficult to solve. Present work combines both, aerodynamic effect and thinning effect, ignoring the non-linearity in the system. This is done by taking into account the formation of the gas boundary layer whilst neglecting viscosity in the liquid phase. Axisymmetric flow is assumed for simplicity. Base state analysis results in a Blasius-type system which can be solved numerically. Perturbation theory is then applied to study the stability of the liquid sheet, where the gas-liquid interface is subjected to small deformations. The linear model derived here can be applied to investigate the instability for sinuous as well as varicose modes, where the former represents displacement in the centerline of the sheet and the latter represents modulation in sheet thickness. Temporal instability analysis is performed for sinuous modes, which are significantly more unstable than varicose modes, for a fixed radial distance implying local stability analysis. The growth rates, measured for fixed wavenumbers, predicated by the present model are significantly lower than those obtained by the inviscid Kelvin-Helmholtz instability and compare better with experimental results. Thus, the present theory gives better insight into understanding the stability of a thin liquid sheet.

Keywords: boundary layer, gas-liquid interface, linear stability, thin liquid sheet

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Authors: Francesca Fermi, Paola Astegiano, Angelo Martino, Stephanie Heitel, Michael Krail

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In order to achieve the targeted emission reductions for the decarbonisation of the European economy by 2050, fundamental contributions are required from both energy and transport sectors. The objective of this paper is to analyse the impacts of a largescale diffusion of e-vehicles, either battery-based or fuel cells, together with the implementation of transport policies aiming at decreasing the use of motorised private modes in order to achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction goals, in the context of a future high share of renewable energy. The analysis of the impacts and challenges of future scenarios on transport sector is performed with the ASTRA (ASsessment of TRAnsport Strategies) model. ASTRA is a strategic system-dynamic model at European scale (EU28 countries, Switzerland and Norway), consisting of different sub-modules related to specific aspects: the transport system (e.g. passenger trips, tonnes moved), the vehicle fleet (composition and evolution of technologies), the demographic system, the economic system, the environmental system (energy consumption, emissions). A key feature of ASTRA is that the modules are linked together: changes in one system are transmitted to other systems and can feed-back to the original source of variation. Thanks to its multidimensional structure, ASTRA is capable to simulate a wide range of impacts stemming from the application of transport policy measures: the model addresses direct impacts as well as second-level and third-level impacts. The simulation of the different scenarios is performed within the REFLEX project, where the ASTRA model is employed in combination with several energy models in a comprehensive Modelling System. From the transport sector perspective, some of the impacts are driven by the trend of electricity price estimated from the energy modelling system. Nevertheless, the major drivers to a low carbon transport sector are policies related to increased fuel efficiency of conventional drivetrain technologies, improvement of demand management (e.g. increase of public transport and car sharing services/usage) and diffusion of environmentally friendly vehicles (e.g. electric vehicles). The final modelling results of the REFLEX project will be available from October 2018. The analysis of the impacts and challenges of future scenarios is performed in terms of transport, environmental and social indicators. The diffusion of e-vehicles produces a consistent reduction of future greenhouse gas emissions, although the decarbonisation target can be achieved only with the contribution of complementary transport policies on demand management and supporting the deployment of low-emission alternative energy for non-road transport modes. The paper explores the implications through time of transport policy measures on mobility and environment, underlying to what extent they can contribute to a decarbonisation of the transport sector. Acknowledgements: The results refer to the REFLEX project which has received grants from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant Agreement No. 691685.

Keywords: decarbonisation, greenhouse gas emissions, e-mobility, transport policies, energy

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Authors: Ranjit A. Patil, Yung Liou, Yuan-Ron Ma

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It has been observed that when the size of metals such as, Au, Zn, Ag, Cu, Te, and metal oxides is reduced to several nano-meters, it starts to show further interesting properties. These new properties boost the use of nano-structures to produce attractive functional materials or used as promising building blocks in electronic devices. Present work describes the synthesis of bismuth (Bi) nanoparticles (NP’s) having uniform morphology, high crystallinity, and single phase purity by the temperature assisted pulsed laser deposition (TAPLD). Pulsed Laser deposition (PLD) technique is one of the promising methods to synthesize nano-structures. It can provide the stable nucleation sites in orders of magnitudes higher than for MBE and sputtering deposition. The desired size of purely metallic Bi NP’s of can be easily controlled by adjusting the temperature of the substrate varying from 1000 C to 250 0C. When the temperatures of the substrate raised step wise the average size of Bi NP’s appeared to be increased by maintaining the uniform distribution of NP’s on the Si surfaces. The diameter range of NP’s is ~33-84 nm shows size distribution constrained in the limited range. The EDS results show that the 0D Bi NP’s synthesized at high temperature (250 0C) at a high vacuum still remained in a metallic phase. Moreover, XRD, TEM and SAED results showed that these Bi NP’s are hexagonal in crystalline in a space group R -3 m and no traces of bismuth oxide, confirming that Bi NP’s synthesized at wide range of temperatures persisted of the pure Bi-metallic phase.

Keywords: metal nano particles, bismuth, pulsed laser deposition (PLD), nano particles, temperature assisted growth

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Authors: Rani Danavath, V. B. Narsimha

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Cloud computing is emerging as a new paradigm of large scale distributed computing. Cloud computing is a model for enabling ubiquitous, convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., three service models, and four deployment networks, servers, storage, applications, and services) that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction. This cloud model is composed of five essential characteristics models. Load balancing is one of the main challenges in cloud computing, which is required to distribute the dynamic workload across multiple nodes, to ensure that no single node is overloaded. It helps in optimal utilization of resources, enhancing the performance of the system. The goal of the load balancing is to minimize the resource consumption and carbon emission rate, that is the direct need of cloud computing. This determined the need of new metrics energy consumption and carbon emission for energy-efficiency load balancing techniques in cloud computing. Existing load balancing techniques mainly focuses on reducing overhead, services, response time and improving performance etc. In this paper we introduced a Technique for energy-efficiency, but none of the techniques have considered the energy consumption and carbon emission. Therefore, our proposed work will go towards energy – efficiency. So this energy-efficiency load balancing technique can be used to improve the performance of cloud computing by balancing the workload across all the nodes in the cloud with the minimum resource utilization, in turn, reducing energy consumption, and carbon emission to an extent, which will help to achieve green computing.

Keywords: cloud computing, distributed computing, energy efficiency, green computing, load balancing, energy consumption, carbon emission

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Authors: Ren Moses, Emmanuel Kidando, Eren Ozguven, Yassir Abdelrazig

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This study applied traffic speed and occupancy to develop clustering models that identify different traffic conditions. Particularly, these models are based on the Dirichlet Process Mixture of Generalized Linear regression (DML) and change-point regression (CR). The model frameworks were implemented using 2015 historical traffic data aggregated at a 15-minute interval from an Interstate 295 freeway in Jacksonville, Florida. Using the deviance information criterion (DIC) to identify the appropriate number of mixture components, three traffic states were identified as free-flow, transitional, and congested condition. Results of the DML revealed that traffic occupancy is statistically significant in influencing the reduction of traffic speed in each of the identified states. Influence on the free-flow and the congested state was estimated to be higher than the transitional flow condition in both evening and morning peak periods. Estimation of the critical speed threshold using CR revealed that 47 mph and 48 mph are speed thresholds for congested and transitional traffic condition during the morning peak hours and evening peak hours, respectively. Free-flow speed thresholds for morning and evening peak hours were estimated at 64 mph and 66 mph, respectively. The proposed approaches will facilitate accurate detection and prediction of traffic congestion for developing effective countermeasures.

Keywords: traffic congestion, multistate speed distribution, traffic occupancy, Dirichlet process mixtures of generalized linear model, Bayesian change-point detection

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Authors: Betül Garda

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Technological developments have diversified marketing activities of the tourism sector and it has increased tourism opportunities to compete on a global scale for tourism businesses. Tourism businesses have been forced to use its core skills and knowledge effectively with the increase in effectiveness of the technology in the global competitive environment. Tourism businesses have been reached beyond the traditional boundaries because of their commercial activities, so, the boundaries of the national market either eliminated or blurred. Therefore, the internet is the alternative promotion tool and distribution channel to providing unlimited facilities for tourism suppliers. For example, the internet provides an opportunity to reach customers on a global scale with direct email marketing, advertising, customer service, promotion, sales, and marketing. Tourism businesses have improved themselves with the continuous information flows and also they have provided the permanence of the changes. Especially in terms of tourism businesses, social media is emerging as an extremely important tool in the use of knowledge effectively. This research paper investigates the impact of social media on the tourism businesses. A social networking site is a type of social media that provides a platform for business and people to connect with each other. Social media is so flexible that it can be used for both leisure and business purposes. In the tourism industry, social networking sites are one of the essential tools that play an important and beneficial role. The topic that will be discussed in this research paper are consumer behavior, connection with consumers, effectiveness in terms of time and cost, creating brand awareness and building the image of the company, promoting company, targeting consumers in a conceptual frame.

Keywords: branding, promoting, social media in tourism, tourism marketing tools

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Authors: Soha A. Bahanshal, Vaibhav Verdhan, Bayong Kim

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Graduation rates at six-year colleges are becoming a more essential indicator for incoming fresh students and for university rankings. Predicting student graduation is extremely beneficial to schools and has a huge potential for targeted intervention. It is important for educational institutions since it enables the development of strategic plans that will assist or improve students' performance in achieving their degrees on time (GOT). A first step and a helping hand in extracting useful information from these data and gaining insights into the prediction of students' progress and performance is offered by machine learning techniques. Data analysis and visualization techniques are applied to understand and interpret the data. The data used for the analysis contains students who have graduated in 6 years in the academic year 2017-2018 for science majors. This analysis can be used to predict the graduation of students in the next academic year. Different Predictive modelings such as logistic regression, decision trees, support vector machines, Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, and KNeighborsClassifier are applied to predict whether a student will graduate. These classifiers were evaluated with k folds of 5. The performance of these classifiers was compared based on accuracy measurement. The results indicated that Ensemble Classifier achieves better accuracy, about 91.12%. This GOT prediction model would hopefully be useful to university administration and academics in developing measures for assisting and boosting students' academic performance and ensuring they graduate on time.

Keywords: prediction, decision trees, machine learning, support vector machine, ensemble model, student graduation, GOT graduate on time

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Authors: Pibool Waijittragum

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The purpose of this paper is to synthesize the research result of brand Identities of Thai Halal brands which related to the way of life for Thai Muslims. The results will be transforming to Thai Halal Brands packaging and label design. The expected benefit is an alternative of marketing strategy for brand building process for Halal products in Thailand. Four elements of marketing strategies which necessary for the brand identity creation is the research framework: consists of Attributes, Benefits, Values and Personality. The research methodology was applied using qualitative and quantitative; 19 marketing experts with dynamic roles in Thai consumer products were interviewed. In addition, a field survey of 122 Thai Muslims selected from 175 Muslim communities in Bangkok was studied. Data analysis will be according to 5 categories of Thai Halal product: 1) Meat 2) Vegetable and Fruits 3) Instant foods and Garnishing ingredient 4) Beverages, Desserts and Snacks 5) Hygienic daily products. The results will explain some suitable approach for brand Identities of Thai Halal brands as are: 1) Benefit approach as the characteristics of the product with its benefit. The brand identity created transform to the packaging design should be clear and display a fresh product 2) Value approach as the value of products that affect to consumers’ perception. The brand identity created transform to the packaging design should be simply look and using a trustful image 3) Personality approach as the reflection of consumers thought. The brand identity created transform to the packaging design should be sincere, enjoyable, merry, flamboyant look and using a humoristic image.

Keywords: marketing strategies, brand identity, packaging and label design, Thai Halal products

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Authors: Seung Ju Yeon, Seul Ki Min, Jun Sang Park, Yeo Seon Kwon, Hoo Cheol Lee, Hyun Jung Shim, Il-Doo Kim, Ja Kyeong Lee, Hwa Sung Shin

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In brain injury, depleting oxidative stress is the most effective way to reduce the brain infarct size. C-phycocyanin (C-Pc) is a well-known antioxidant protein that has neuroprotective effects obtained from green microalgae. Astrocyte is glial cell that supports the nerve cell such as neuron, which account for a large portion of the brain. In brain injury, such as ischemia and reperfusion, astrocyte has an important rule that overcomes the oxidative stress and protect from brain reactive oxygen species (ROS) injury. However little is known about how C-Pc regulates the anti-oxidants effects of astrocyte. In this study, when the C-Pc was treated in oxidized astrocyte, we confirmed that inflammatory factors Interleukin-6 and Interleukin-3 were increased and antioxidants enzyme, Superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase was upregulated, and neurotrophic factors, brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and nerve growth factor (NGF) was alleviated. Also, it was confirmed to reduce infarct size of the brain in ischemia and reperfusion because C-Pc has anti-oxidant effects in middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) animal model. These results show that C-Pc can help astrocytes lead neuroprotective activities in the oxidative stressed environment of the brain. In summary, the C-PC protects astrocytes from oxidative stress and has anti-oxidative, anti-inflammatory, neurotrophic effects under ischemic situations.

Keywords: c-phycocyanin, astrocyte, reactive oxygen species, ischemia and reperfusion, neuroprotective effect

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Authors: Emma Serwaa Obobisaa, Haibo Chen

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International trade and outward foreign direct investment are important factors which are generally recognized in the economic growth and development. Though several scholars have struggled to reveal the influence of trade and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, most studies utilized common econometric models such as vector autoregression and aggregated the variables, which for the most part prompts, however, contradictory and mixed results. Thus, there is an exigent need for the precise study of the trade and FDI effect of economic growth while applying strong econometric models and disaggregating the variables into its separate individual variables to explicate their respective effects on economic growth. This will guarantee the provision of policies and strategies that are geared towards individual variables to ensure sustainable development and growth. This study, therefore, seeks to examine the causal effect of China-Africa trade and Outward Foreign Direct Investment on the economic growth of Africa using a robust and recent econometric approach such as system dynamics model. Our study impanels and tests an ensemble of a group of vital variables predominant in recent studies on trade-FDI-economic growth causality: Foreign direct ınvestment, international trade and economic growth. Our results showed that the system dynamics method provides accurate statistical inference regarding the direction of the causality among the variables than the conventional method such as OLS and Granger Causality predominantly used in the literature as it is more robust and provides accurate, critical values.

Keywords: economic growth, outward foreign direct investment, system dynamics model, international trade

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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The basic objective of this paper is twofold. It resides in designing a model for a contingent convertible lease contract that can ensure the financial stability of a company and recover the losses of the parties to the lease in the event of default. It also aims to compare the convertible lease contract on inefficiencies resulting from the debt-overhang problem and asset substitution with other financing policies. From this perspective, this paper highlights the interaction between investments and financing policies in a dynamic model with existing assets and a growth option where the investment cost is financed by a contingent convertible lease and equity. We explore the impact of the contingent convertible lease on the capital structure. We also check the reliability and effectiveness of the use of the convertible lease contract as a means of financing. Findings show that the rental convertible contract with a sufficiently high conversion ratio has less severe inefficiencies arising from risk-shifting and debt overhang than those entailed by risky debt and pure-equity financing. The problem of underinvestment pointed out by Mauer and Ott (2000) and the problem of overinvestment mentioned by Hackbarth and Mauer (2012) may be reduced under contingent convertible lease financing. Our findings predict that the firm value under contingent convertible lease financing increases globally with asset volatility instead of decreasing with business risk. The study reveals that convertible leasing contracts can stand for a reliable solution to ensure the lessee and quickly recover the counterparties of the lease upon default.

Keywords: contingent convertible lease, growth option, debt overhang, risk-shifting, capital structure

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Authors: Eric Mxolisi Mkhondo

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Geometrical deviations and interaction of mechanical parts influences the performance of miniature systems.These deviations tend to cause costly problems during assembly due to imperfections of components, which are invisible to a naked eye.They also tend to cause unsatisfactory performance during operation due to deformation cause by environmental conditions.One of the effective tools to manage the deviations and interaction of parts in the system is tolerance analysis.This is a quantitative tool for predicting the tolerance variations which are defined during the design process.Traditional tolerance analysis assumes that the assembly is static and the deviations come from the manufacturing discrepancies, overlooking the functionality of the whole system and deformation of parts due to effect of environmental conditions. This paper presents an integrated tolerance analysis approach for miniature system in operation.In this approach, a computer-aided design (CAD) model is developed from system’s specification.The CAD model is then used to specify the geometrical and dimensional tolerance limits (upper and lower limits) that vary component’s geometries and sizes while conforming to functional requirements.Worst-case tolerances are analyzed to determine the influenced of dimensional changes due to effects of operating temperatures.The method is used to evaluate the nominal conditions, and worse case conditions in maximum and minimum dimensions of assembled components.These three conditions will be evaluated under specific operating temperatures (-40°C,-18°C, 4°C, 26°C, 48°C, and 70°C). A case study on the mechanism of a zoom lens system is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the methodology.

Keywords: geometric dimensioning, tolerance analysis, worst-case analysis, zoom lens mechanism

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Authors: Ali Zein Aalabiden Tlais, Alessio Da Ros, Pasquale Filannino, Olimpia Vincentini, Marco Gobbetti, Raffaella Di Cagno

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This study is an example of apple by-products (AP) recycling through a designed fermentation by selected autochthonous Lactobacillus plantarum AFI5 and Lactobacillus fabifermentans ALI6 used singly or as binary cultures with the selected Saccharomyces cerevisiae AYI7. Compared to Raw-, Unstarted- and Chemically Acidified-AP, Fermented-AP promoted the highest levels of total and insoluble dietary fibers, antioxidant activity, and free phenolics. The binary culture of L. plantarum AFI5 and S. cerevisiae AYI7 had the best effect on the bioavailability phenolic compounds as resulted by the Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry validated method. The accumulation of phenolic acid derivatives highlighted microbial metabolism during AP fermentation. Bio-converted phenolic compounds were likely responsible for the increased antioxidant activity. The potential health-promoting effects of Fermented-AP were highlighted using Caco-2 cells. With variations among single and binary cultures, fermented-AP counteracted the inflammatory processes and the effects of oxidative stress in Caco-2 cells and preserved the integrity of tight junctions. An alternative and suitable model for food by-products recycling to manufacture a dietary supplement fortified with biogenic compounds was proposed. Highlighting the microbial metabolism of several phenolic compounds, undoubted additional value to such downstream wastes was created.

Keywords: apple by-products, antioxidant, fermentation, phenolic compounds

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Authors: Majority Oji

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The print media played a major role in the agitation for self-rule in Nigeria in the 1950s. It remains as a bastion of hope in the dark days of military rule in the country. But in the troubled waters of Nigeria’s politics, accusing fingers are pointed in the direction of the print media as problematic to the political development of the nation. Thus, Nigeria as a nation is torn between the paralyzing forces of political instability and the building powers of political stability. The press assigned a constitutional role to hold everyone, especially government officials accountable to the public, appears to be at the center of these forays. The paper takes a look at the strength and weakness of the print media as a stabilizing or destabilizing agent to the political development of Nigeria. Engaging in this study is essential and the findings fundamental to the sustainability of Nigeria’s nascent democracy. The study draws on the content analysis method. News items from major newspapers across the country were content analyzed to test the validity of the claims that the press serve as agent of political stability or political instability, and whether to accept or reject such claims. The study found that the press has published more stories that unite the people politically as found in the tested hypothesis which shows that P>0.05 implying that media publications are not significant to political instability of the nation regardless of the number of published news stories. The study recommends that all issues relating to professional and ethical standards that affect the practice of journalism in the print media should be addressed by regulatory bodies to starve of chances of information that could lead to intolerance being peddled in the print media.

Keywords: Nigeria, political instability, political stability, print media

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Authors: Eko Liao, Cheryl Zhang

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Employee job crafting refers to employee’s proactive behaviors of making customized changes to their jobs on cognitive, relationship, and task levels. Previous studies have investigated different situations triggering employee’s job crafting. However, much less is known about what would be the consequences for both employee themselves and their work groups. Guided by conservation of resources theory (COR), this study investigates how employees job crafting increases their objective task performance and promotive voice behaviors at work. It is argued that employee would gain more resources when they actively craft their job tasks, which in turn increase their job performance and encourage them to have more constructive speak-up behaviors. Specifically, employee’s psychological resources (i.e., job engagement) and relational resources (i.e., leader-member relationships) would be enhanced from effective crafting behaviors, because employees are more likely to regard their job tasks as meaningful, and their leaders would be more likely to notice and recognize their dedication at work when employees craft their job frequently. To test this research model, around 400 employees from various Chinese organizations from mainland China joins the two-wave data collection stage. Employee’s job crafting behaviors in three aspects are measured at time 1. Perception of resource gain (job engagement and leader-member exchange), voice, and job performance are measured at time 2. The research model is generally supported. This study contributes to the job crafting literature by broadening the theoretical lens to a resource-based perspective. It also has practical implications that organizations should pay more attention to employee crafting behaviors because they are closely related to employees in-role performance and constructive voice behaviors.

Keywords: job crafting, resource-based perspective, voice, job performance

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Authors: Usman A. Usman

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Undeniably, unlike the Classical side, the Keynesian perspective of the aggregate demand side indeed has a significant position in the policy, growth, and welfare of Nigeria due to government involvement and ineffective demand of the population living with poor per capita income. This study seeks to investigate the effect of Government Final Consumption Expenditure, Financial Deepening on Households, and NPISHs Final consumption expenditure using data on Nigeria from 1981 to 2019. This study employed the ADF stationarity test, Johansen Cointegration test, and Vector Error Correction Model. The results of the study revealed that the coefficient of Government final consumption expenditure has a positive effect on household consumption expenditure in the long run. There is a long-run and short-run relationship between gross fixed capital formation and household consumption expenditure. The coefficients cpsgdp financial deepening and gross fixed capital formation posit a negative impact on household final consumption expenditure. The coefficients money supply lm2gdp, which is another proxy for financial deepening, and the coefficient FDI have a positive effect on household final consumption expenditure in the long run. Therefore, this study recommends that Gross fixed capital formation stimulates household consumption expenditure; a legal framework to support investment is a panacea to increasing hoodmold income and consumption and reducing poverty in Nigeria. Therefore, this should be a key central component of policy.

Keywords: household, government expenditures, vector error correction model, johansen test

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Authors: Rafael Alvarenga, Hubert Herbaux, Laurent Linguet

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The uncertainty concerning the power production of intermittent renewable energy is one of the main barriers to the integration of such assets into the power grid. Efforts have thus been made to develop methods to quantify this uncertainty, allowing producers to ensure more reliable and profitable engagements related to their future power delivery. Even though a diversity of probabilistic approaches was proposed in the literature giving promising results, the added value of adopting such methods for scheduling intermittent power plants is still unclear. In this study, the profits obtained by a decision-making model used to optimally schedule an existing PV power plant connected to batteries are compared when the model is fed with deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated with two of the most recent methods proposed in the literature. Moreover, deterministic forecasts with different accuracy levels were used in the experiments, testing the utility and the capability of probabilistic methods of modeling the progressively increasing uncertainty. Even though probabilistic approaches are unquestionably developed in the recent literature, the results obtained through a study case show that deterministic forecasts still provide the best performance if accurate, ensuring a gain of 14% on final profits compared to the average performance of probabilistic models conditioned to the same forecasts. When the accuracy of deterministic forecasts progressively decreases, probabilistic approaches start to become competitive options until they completely outperform deterministic forecasts when these are very inaccurate, generating 73% more profits in the case considered compared to the deterministic approach.

Keywords: PV power forecasting, uncertainty quantification, optimal scheduling, power systems

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