Search results for: equivalent linear model

Authors: Nkemjika Chinenye-Kanu, Mamdud Hossain, Ghazi Droubi

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Prediction of multiphase flow induced forces, void fraction and pressure is crucial at both design and operating stages of practical energy and process pipe systems. In this study, transient numerical simulations of upward slug-churn flow through a vertical 90-degree elbow have been conducted. The volume of fluid (VOF) method was used to model the two-phase flows while the K-epsilon Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations were used to model turbulence in the flows. The simulation results were validated using experimental results. Void fraction signal, peak frequency and maximum magnitude of void fraction fluctuation of the slug-churn flow validation case studies compared well with experimental results. The x and y direction force fluctuation signals at the elbow control volume were obtained by carrying out force balance calculations using the directly extracted time domain signals of flow properties through the control volume in the numerical simulation. The computed force signal compared well with experiment for the slug and churn flow validation case studies. Hence, the present numerical simulation technique was able to predict the behaviours of the one-way flow induced forces and void fraction fluctuations.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, flow induced vibration, slug-churn flow, void fraction and force fluctuation

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Authors: Sukran Acikel, Mehmet Ekmekci, Otgonbayar Namkhai

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Lignite coal fields in western Turkey generally occurs in tensional Neogene basins bordered by major faults. Karacahisar coal field in Mugla province of western Turkey is a large Neogene basin filled with alternation of silisic and calcerous layers. The basement of the basin is composed of mainly karstified carbonate rocks of Mesozoic and schists of Paleozoic age. The basement rocks are exposed at highlands surrounding the basin. The basin fill deposits forms shallow, low yield and local aquifers whereas karstic carbonate rock masses forms the major aquifer in the region. The karstic aquifer discharges through a spring zone issuing at intersection of two major faults. Municipal water demand in Bodrum city, a touristic attraction area is almost totally supplied by boreholes tapping the karstic aquifer. A well field has been constructed on the eastern edge of the coal basin, which forms a ridge separating two Neogene basins. A major concern was raised about the plausible impact of mining activities on groundwater system in general and on water supply well field in particular. The hydrogeological studies carried out in the area revealed that the coal seam is located below the groundwater level. Mining operations will be affected by groundwater inflow to the pits, which will require dewatering measures. Dewatering activities in mine sites have two-sided effects: a) lowers the groundwater level at and around the pit for a safe and effective mining operation, b) continuous dewatering causes expansion of cone of depression to reach a spring, stream and/or well being utilized by local people, capturing their water. Plausible effect of mining operations on the flow of the spring zone was another issue of concern. Therefore, a detailed representative hydrogeological conceptual model of the site was developed on the basis of available data and field work. According to the hydrogeological conceptual model, dewatering of Neogene layers will not hydraulically affect the water supply wells, however, the ultimate perimeter of the open pit will expand to intersect the well field. According to the conceptual model, the coal seam is separated from the bottom by a thick impervious clay layer sitting on the carbonate basement. Therefore, the hydrostratigraphy does not allow a hydraulic interaction between the mine pit and the karstic carbonate rock aquifer. However, the structural setting in the basin suggests that deep faults intersecting the basement and the Neogene sequence will most probably carry the deep groundwater up to a level above the bottom of the pit. This will require taking necessary measure to lower the piezometric level of the carbonate rock aquifer along the faults. Dewatering the carbonate rock aquifer will reduce the flow to the spring zone. All findings were put together to recommend a strategy for safe and effective mining operation.

Keywords: conceptual model, dewatering, groundwater, mining operation

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Authors: Erwin, Cheng-Cheng Chen, Charles J. Salim

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One of the method to solve the lateral torsional buckling (LTB) problem is by using side plates to increased the buckling resistance of the beam. Some modifications in designing the side plates are made in this study to simplify the construction in the field and reduce the cost. At certain region, side plates are not added: (1) At the beam end to preserve some spaces for bolt installation, but the beam is strengthened by adding cover plate at both flanges and (2) at the middle span of the beam where the moment is smaller. Three small scale full span beam specimens are tested under cyclic loading to investigate the LTB resistant and the ductility of the proposed design method. Test results show that the LTB deformation can be effectively suppressed and very high ductility level can be achieved. Following the test, a finite element analysis (FEA) model is established and is verified using the test results. An intensive parametric study is conducted using the established FEA model. The analysis reveals that the length of side plates is the most important parameter determining the performance of the beam and the required side plates length is determined by some parameters which are (1) beam depth to flange width ratio, (2) beam slenderness ratio (3) strength and thickness of the side plates, (4) compactness of beam web and flange, and (5) beam yield strength. At the end of the paper, a design formula to calculate the required side plate length is suggested.

Keywords: cover plate, earthquake resistant design, lateral torsional buckling, side plate, steel structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Kawsar Ahmed, Hong Wang

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The study's goal was to estimate the causal mediation impact of tobacco tax before and after price hikes among low-income male smokers, with a particular emphasis on the effect estimating pathways framework for continuous and dichotomous variables. From July to December 2021, a cross-sectional investigation of observational data (n=739) was collected from Bangladeshi low-wage smokers. The Quasi-Bayesian technique, binomial probit model, and sensitivity analysis using a simulation of the computational tools R mediation package had been used to estimate the effect. After a price rise for tobacco products, the average number of cigarettes or bidis sticks taken decreased from 6.7 to 4.56. Tobacco product rising prices have a direct effect on low-income people's decisions to quit or lessen their daily smoking habits of Average Causal Mediation Effect (ACME) [effect=2.31, 95 % confidence interval (C.I.) = (4.71-0.00), p<0.01], Average Direct Effect (ADE) [effect=8.6, 95 percent (C.I.) = (6.8-0.11), p<0.001], and overall significant effects (p<0.001). Tobacco smoking choice is described by the mediated proportion of income effect, which is 26.1% less of following price rise. The curve of ACME and ADE is based on observational figures of the coefficients of determination that asses the model of hypothesis as the substantial consequence after price rises in the sensitivity analysis. To reduce smoking product behaviors, price increases through taxation have a positive causal mediation with income that affects the decision to limit tobacco use and promote low-income men's healthcare policy.

Keywords: causal mediation analysis, directed acyclic graphs, tobacco price policy, sensitivity analysis, pathway estimation

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Authors: Masoud Mohammadpour, Blair Carlson, Radovan Kovacevic

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The quality of laser welded-brazed (LWB) joints were strongly dependent on the main process parameters, therefore the effect of laser power (3.2–4 kW), welding speed (60–80 mm/s) and wire feed rate (70–90 mm/s) on mechanical strength and surface roughness were investigated in this study. The comprehensive optimization process by means of response surface methodology (RSM) and desirability function was used for multi-criteria optimization. The experiments were planned based on Box– Behnken design implementing linear and quadratic polynomial equations for predicting the desired output properties. Finally, validation experiments were conducted on an optimized process condition which exhibited good agreement between the predicted and experimental results. AlSi3Mn1 was selected as the filler material for joining aluminum alloy 6022 and hot-dip galvanized steel in coach peel configuration. The high scanning speed could control the thickness of IMC as thin as 5 µm. The thermal simulations of joining process were conducted by the Finite Element Method (FEM), and results were validated through experimental data. The Fe/Al interfacial thermal history evidenced that the duration of critical temperature range (700–900 °C) in this high scanning speed process was less than 1 s. This short interaction time leads to the formation of reaction-control IMC layer instead of diffusion-control mechanisms.

Keywords: laser welding-brazing, finite element, response surface methodology (RSM), multi-response optimization, cross-beam laser

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Won Young Choi, Kwan Kyu Park

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Recently, the road depression happening in the urban area is different from the cause of the sink hole and the generation mechanism occurring in the limestone area. The main cause of sinkholes occurring in the city center is the loss of soil due to the damage of old underground buried materials and groundwater discharge due to large underground excavation works. The method of detecting the sinkhole in the urban area is mostly using the Ground Penetration Radar (GPR). However, it is challenging to implement compact system and detecting watery state since it is based on electromagnetic waves. Although many ultrasonic underground detection studies have been conducted, near-ground detection (several tens of cm to several meters) has been developed for bulk systems using geophones as a receiver. The goal of this work is to fabricate a miniaturized sinkhole detecting system based on low-cost ultrasonic transducers of 40 kHz resonant frequency with high transmission pressure and receiving sensitivity. Motived by biomedical ultrasonic imaging methods, we detect air layers below the ground such as asphalt through the pulse-echo method. To improve image quality using multi-channel, linear array system is implemented, and image is acquired by classical synthetic aperture imaging method. We present the successful feasibility test of multi-channel sinkhole detector based on ultrasonic transducer. In this work, we presented and analyzed image results which are imaged by single channel pulse-echo imaging, synthetic aperture imaging.

Keywords: road depression, sinkhole, synthetic aperture imaging, ultrasonic transducer

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Authors: Mohammad Alipour, Ekin Esen, Riza Kizilel

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Lithium-ion batteries are a commonly used type of rechargeable batteries because of their high specific energy and specific power. With the growing popularity of electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles, increasing attentions have been paid to rechargeable Lithium-ion batteries. However, safety problems, high cost and poor performance in low ambient temperatures and high current rates, are big obstacles for commercial utilization of these batteries. By proper thermal management, most of the mentioned limitations could be eliminated. Temperature profile of the Li-ion cells has a significant role in the performance, safety, and cycle life of the battery. That is why little temperature gradient can lead to great loss in the performances of the battery packs. In recent years, numerous researchers are working on new techniques to imply a better thermal management on Li-ion batteries. Keeping the battery cells within an optimum range is the main objective of battery thermal management. Commercial Li-ion cells are composed of several electrochemical layers each consisting negative-current collector, negative electrode, separator, positive electrode, and positive current collector. However, many researchers have adopted a single-layer cell to save in computing time. Their hypothesis is that thermal conductivity of the layer elements is so high and heat transfer rate is so fast. Therefore, instead of several thin layers, they model the cell as one thick layer unit. In previous work, we showed that single-layer model is insufficient to simulate the thermal behavior and temperature nonuniformity of the high-capacity Li-ion cells. We also studied the effects of the number of layers on thermal behavior of the Li-ion batteries. In this work, first thermal and electrochemical behavior of the LiFePO₄ battery is modeled with 3D multilayer cell. The model is validated with the experimental measurements at different current rates and ambient temperatures. Real time heat generation rate is also studied at different discharge rates. Results showed non-uniform temperature distribution along the cell which requires thermal management system. Therefore, aluminum plates with mini-channel system were designed to control the temperature uniformity. Design parameters such as channel number and widths, inlet flow rate, and cooling fluids are optimized. As cooling fluids, water and air are compared. Pressure drop and velocity profiles inside the channels are illustrated. Both surface and internal temperature profiles of single cell and battery packs are investigated with and without cooling systems. Our results show that using optimized Mini-channel cooling plates effectively controls the temperature rise and uniformity of the single cells and battery packs. With increasing the inlet flow rate, cooling efficiency could be reached up to 60%.

Keywords: lithium ion battery, 3D multilayer model, mini-channel cooling plates, thermal management

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Authors: Eman M. Morgan, Hayam M. Lotfy, Yasmin M. Fayez, Mohamed Abdelkawy, Engy Shokry

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Two simple, selective, economic, safe, accurate, precise and environmentally friendly methods were developed and validated for the quantitative determination of valaciclovir (VAL) in the presence of its related substances R1 (acyclovir), R2 (guanine) in bulk powder and in the commercial pharmaceutical product containing the drug. Method A is a colorimetric method where VAL selectively reacts with ferric hydroxamate and the developed color was measured at 490 nm over a concentration range of 0.4-2 mg/mL with percentage recovery 100.05 ± 0.58 and correlation coefficient 0.9999. Method B is a reversed phase ultra performance liquid chromatographic technique (UPLC) which is considered superior in technology to the high-performance liquid chromatography with respect to speed, resolution, solvent consumption, time, and cost of analysis. Efficient separation was achieved on Agilent Zorbax CN column using ammonium acetate (0.1%) and acetonitrile as a mobile phase in a linear gradient program. Elution time for the separation was less than 5 min and ultraviolet detection was carried out at 256 nm over a concentration range of 2-50 μg/mL with mean percentage recovery 100.11±0.55 and correlation coefficient 0.9999. The proposed methods were fully validated as per International Conference on Harmonization specifications and effectively applied for the analysis of valaciclovir in pure form and tablets dosage form. Statistical comparison of the results obtained by the proposed and official or reported methods revealed no significant difference in the performance of these methods regarding the accuracy and precision respectively.

Keywords: hydroxamic acid, related substances, UPLC, valaciclovir

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Authors: Fangzheng Li, Xiong Li

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Significant differences in urban greening have occurred in Chinese cities, which accompanied with China's rapid urbanization. However, few studies focused on the spatial differentiation of urban greening in China with large amounts of data. The spatial differentiation pattern, spatial correlation characteristics and the distribution shape of urban green space ratio, urban green coverage rate and public green area per capita were calculated and analyzed, using Global and Local Moran's I using data from 289 cities in 2014. We employed Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model to assess the impacts of urbanization process on urban greening of China. Then we used Geographically Weighted Regression to estimate the spatial variations of the impacts. The results showed: 1. a significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity existed in urban greening values, and the differentiation patterns were featured by the administrative grade and the spatial agglomeration simultaneously; 2. it revealed that urbanization has a negative correlation with urban greening in Chinese cities. Among the indices, the the proportion of secondary industry, urbanization rate, population and the scale of urban land use has significant negative correlation with the urban greening of China. Automobile density and per capita Gross Domestic Product has no significant impact. The results of GWR modeling showed that the relationship between urbanization and urban greening was not constant in space. Further, the local parameter estimates suggested significant spatial variation in the impacts of various urbanization factors on urban greening.

Keywords: China’s urbanization, geographically weighted regression, spatial differentiation pattern, urban greening

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Authors: C. R. Danielle, S. Erik, T. Patrick, M. Hugh

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In the last decade there has been an increase in demand for fine grinding due to the depletion of coarse-grained orebodies and an increase of processing fine disseminated minerals and complex orebodies. These ores have provided new challenges in concentrator design because fine and ultra-fine grinding is required to achieve acceptable recovery rates. Therefore, the correct design of a grinding circuit is important for minimizing unit costs and increasing product quality. The use of ball mills for grinding in fine size ranges is inefficient and, therefore, vertical stirred grinding mills are becoming increasingly popular in the mineral processing industry due to its already known high energy efficiency. This work presents a hypothesis of a methodology to predict the product size distribution of a vertical stirred mill using a Bond ball mill. The Population Balance Model (PBM) was used to empirically analyze the performance of a vertical mill and a Bond ball mill. The breakage parameters obtained for both grinding mills are compared to determine the possibility of predicting the product size distribution of a vertical mill based on the results obtained from the Bond ball mill. The biggest advantage of this methodology is that most of the minerals processing laboratories already have a Bond ball mill to perform the tests suggested in this study. Preliminary results show the possibility of predicting the performance of a laboratory vertical stirred mill using a Bond ball mill.

Keywords: bond ball mill, population balance model, product size distribution, vertical stirred mill

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Jungyeol Hong, Dongjoo Park

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The urban transit system is a critical part of a solution to the economic, energy, and environmental challenges. Furthermore, it ultimately contributes the improvement of people’s quality of lives. For taking these kinds of advantages, the city of Seoul has tried to construct an integrated transit system including both subway and buses. The effort led to the fact that approximately 6.9 million citizens use the integrated transit system every day for their trips. Diagnosing the current transit network is a significant task to provide more convenient and pleasant transit environment. Therefore, the critical objective of this study is to establish a methodological framework for the analysis of an integrated bus-subway network and to examine the relationship between subway ridership and parameters such as network topology measures, bus demand, and a variety of commercial business facilities. Regarding a statistical approach to estimate subway ridership at a station level, many previous studies relied on Ordinary Least Square regression, but there was lack of studies considering the endogeneity issues which might show in the subway ridership prediction model. This study focused on both discovering the impacts of integrated transit network topology measures and endogenous effect of bus demand on subway ridership. It could ultimately contribute to developing more accurate subway ridership estimation accounting for its statistical bias. The spatial scope of the study covers Seoul city in South Korea, and it includes 243 subway stations and 10,120 bus stops with the temporal scope set during twenty-four hours with one-hour interval time panels each. The subway and bus ridership information in detail was collected from the Seoul Smart Card data in 2015 and 2016. First, integrated subway-bus network topology measures which have characteristics regarding connectivity, centrality, transitivity, and reciprocity were estimated based on the complex network theory. The results of integrated transit network topology analysis were compared to subway-only network topology. Also, the non-recursive approach which is Three-Stage Least Square was applied to develop the daily subway ridership model as capturing the endogeneity between bus and subway demands. Independent variables included roadway geometry, commercial business characteristics, social-economic characteristics, safety index, transit facility attributes, and dummies for seasons and time zone. Consequently, it was found that network topology measures were significant size effect. Especially, centrality measures showed that the elasticity was a change of 4.88% for closeness centrality, 24.48% for betweenness centrality while the elasticity of bus ridership was 8.85%. Moreover, it was proved that bus demand and subway ridership were endogenous in a non-recursive manner as showing that predicted bus ridership and predicted subway ridership is statistically significant in OLS regression models. Therefore, it shows that three-stage least square model appears to be a plausible model for efficient subway ridership estimation. It is expected that the proposed approach provides a reliable guideline that can be used as part of the spectrum of tools for evaluating a city-wide integrated transit network.

Keywords: integrated transit system, network topology measures, three-stage least squared, endogeneity, subway ridership

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: M. M. Essa, S. Subash, M. Akbar, S. Al-Adawi, A. Al-Asmi, G. J. Guillemein

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Transgenic (tg) mice which contain an amyloid precursor protein (APP) gene mutation, develop extracellular amyloid beta (Aβ) deposition in the brain, and severe memory and behavioral deficits with age. These mice serve as an important animal model for testing the efficacy of novel drug candidates for the treatment and management of symptoms of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Several reports have suggested that oxidative stress is the underlying cause of Aβ neurotoxicity in AD. Date palm fruits contain very high levels of antioxidants and several medicinal properties that may be useful for improving the quality of life in AD patients. In this study, we investigated the effect of dietary supplementation of Omani date palm fruits on the memory, anxiety and learning skills along with inflammation in an AD mouse model containing the double Swedish APP mutation (APPsw/Tg2576). The experimental groups of APP-transgenic mice from the age of 4 months were fed custom-mix diets (pellets) containing 2% and 4% Date palm fruits. We assessed spatial memory and learning ability, psychomotor coordination, and anxiety-related behavior in Tg and wild-type mice at the age of 4-5 months and 18-19 months using the Morris water maze test, rota rod test, elevated plus maze test, and open field test. Further, inflammatory parameters also analyzed. APPsw/Tg2576 mice that were fed a standard chow diet without dates showed significant memory deficits, increased anxiety-related behavior, and severe impairment in spatial learning ability, position discrimination learning ability and motor coordination along with increased inflammation compared to the wild type mice on the same diet, at the age of 18-19 months In contrast, PPsw/Tg2576 mice that were fed a diet containing 2% and 4% dates showed a significant improvements in memory, learning, locomotor function, and anxiety with reduced inflammatory markers compared to APPsw/Tg2576 mice fed the standard chow diet. Our results suggest that dietary supplementation with dates may slow the progression of cognitive and behavioral impairments in AD. The exact mechanism is still unclear and further extensive research needed.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, date palm fruits, Oman, cognitive decline, memory loss, anxiety, inflammation

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Authors: Hyunjoo Park, Taehyun Kim, Taehyun Kim

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Human life, activity, and culture depend on the wider environment. Cities offer economic opportunities for goods and services, but cannot exist in environments without food, energy, and water supply. Technological innovation in energy supply and transport speeds up the expansion of urban areas and the physical separation from agricultural land. As a result, division of urban agricultural areas causes more energy demand for food and goods transport between the regions. As the energy resources are leaking all over the world, the impact on the environment crossing the boundaries of cities is also growing. While advances in energy and other technologies can reduce the environmental impact of consumption, there is still a gap between energy supply and demand by current technology, even in technically advanced countries. Therefore, reducing energy demand is more realistic than relying solely on the development of technology for sustainable development. The purpose of this study is to introduce the application of carbon footprint assessment in fields of urban planning and geography. In urban studies, carbon footprint has been assessed at different geographical scales, such as nation, city, region, household, and individual. Carbon footprint assessment for a nation and a city is available by using national or city level statistics of energy consumption categories. By means of carbon footprint calculation, it is possible to compare the ecological capacity and deficit among nations and cities. Carbon footprint also offers great insight on the geographical distribution of carbon intensity at a regional level in the agricultural field. The study shows the background of carbon footprint applications in urban planning and geography by case studies such as figuring out sustainable land-use measures in urban planning and geography. For micro level, footprint quiz or survey can be adapted to measure household and individual carbon footprint. For example, first case study collected carbon footprint data from the survey measuring home energy use and travel behavior of 2,064 households in eight cities in Gyeonggi-do, Korea. Second case study analyzed the effects of the net and gross population densities on carbon footprint of residents at an intra-urban scale in the capital city of Seoul, Korea. In this study, the individual carbon footprint of residents was calculated by converting the carbon intensities of home and travel fossil fuel use of respondents to the unit of metric ton of carbon dioxide (tCO₂) by multiplying the conversion factors equivalent to the carbon intensities of each energy source, such as electricity, natural gas, and gasoline. Carbon footprint is an important concept not only for reducing climate change but also for sustainable development. As seen in case studies carbon footprint may be measured and applied in various spatial units, including but not limited to countries and regions. These examples may provide new perspectives on carbon footprint application in planning and geography. In addition, additional concerns for consumption of food, goods, and services can be included in carbon footprint calculation in the area of urban planning and geography.

Keywords: carbon footprint, case study, geography, urban planning

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Authors: A. Odoom, A. Salama, H. Ibrahim

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Hydrogen is a clean source of energy for power production and transportation. The main source of hydrogen in this research is biodiesel. Glycerol also called glycerine is a by-product of biodiesel production by transesterification of vegetable oils and methanol. This is a reliable and environmentally-friendly source of hydrogen production than fossil fuels. A typical composition of crude glycerol comprises of glycerol, water, organic and inorganic salts, soap, methanol and small amounts of glycerides. Crude glycerol has limited industrial application due to its low purity thus, the usage of crude glycerol can significantly enhance the sustainability and production of biodiesel. Reforming techniques is an approach for hydrogen production mainly Steam Reforming (SR), Autothermal Reforming (ATR) and Partial Oxidation Reforming (POR). SR produces high hydrogen conversions and yield but is highly endothermic whereas POR is exothermic. On the downside, PO yields lower hydrogen as well as large amount of side reactions. ATR which is a fusion of partial oxidation reforming and steam reforming is thermally neutral because net reactor heat duty is zero. It has relatively high hydrogen yield, selectivity as well as limits coke formation. The complex chemical processes that take place during the production phases makes it relatively difficult to construct a reliable and robust numerical model. Numerical model is a tool to mimic reality and provide insight into the influence of the parameters. In this work, we introduce a finite volume numerical study for an 'in-house' lab-scale experiment of ATR. Previous numerical studies on this process have considered either using Comsol or nodal finite difference analysis. Since Comsol is a commercial package which is not readily available everywhere and lab-scale experiment can be considered well mixed in the radial direction. One spatial dimension suffices to capture the essential feature of ATR, in this work, we consider developing our own numerical approach using MATLAB. A continuum fixed bed reactor is modelled using MATLAB with both pseudo homogeneous and heterogeneous models. The drawback of nodal finite difference formulation is that it is not locally conservative which means that materials and momenta can be generated inside the domain as an artifact of the discretization. Control volume, on the other hand, is locally conservative and suites very well problems where materials are generated and consumed inside the domain. In this work, species mass balance, Darcy’s equation and energy equations are solved using operator splitting technique. Therefore, diffusion-like terms are discretized implicitly while advection-like terms are discretized explicitly. An upwind scheme is adapted for the advection term to ensure accuracy and positivity. Comparisons with the experimental data show very good agreements which build confidence in our modeling approach. The models obtained were validated and optimized for better results.

Keywords: autothermal reforming, crude glycerol, hydrogen, numerical model

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Authors: Desta Brhanu Gebrehiwot

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The purpose of this review was to analyze the overall or combined effect of scholarly studies conducted on the impacts of Food for work (FFW) and Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on farm households’ livelihood (agricultural investment on the adoption of fertilizer, food security, livestock holding, nutrition and its’ disincentive effect) in Ethiopia. In addition, to make a critical assessment of the internal and external validity of the existing studies, the review also indicates the possibility to redesign the program. The method of selecting eligible studies for review was PICOS (Participants, Intervention, Comparison, Outcomes, and Settings) framework. The method of analysis was the fixed effects model under Meta-Analysis. The findings of this systematic review confirm the overall or combined positive significant impact of PSNP on fertilizer adoption (combined point estimate=0.015, standard error=0.005, variance=0.000, lower limit 0.004 up to the upper limit=0.026, z-value=2.726, and p-value=0.006). And the program had a significant positive impact on the child nutrition of rural households and had no significant disincentive effect. However, the program had no significant impact on livestock holdings. Thus, PSNP is important for households whose livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture and are exposed to rainfall shocks. Thus, better to integrate the program into the national agricultural policy. In addition, most of the studies suggested that PSNP needs more attention to the design and targeting issued in order to be effective and efficient in social protection.

Keywords: meta-analysis, fixed effect model, PSNP, rural-livelihood, Ethiopia

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Authors: Mustafa Metin Donma, Orkide Donma

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Childhood obesity is an important clinical problem because it may lead to chronic diseases during the adulthood period of the individual. Obesity is a metabolic disease associated with low-grade inflammation. The liver occurs at the center of metabolic pathways. Adropin, fibroblast growth factor-21 (FGF-21), and fetuin-A are hepatokines. Due to the immense participation of the liver in glucose metabolism, these liver-derived factors may be associated with insulin resistance (IR), which is a phenomenon discussed within the scope of obesity problems. The aim of this study is to determine the concentrations of adropin, FGF-21, and fetuin-A in childhood obesity, to point out possible differences between the obesity groups, and to investigate possible associations among these three hepatokines in obese and morbidly obese children. A total of one hundred and thirty-two children were included in the study. Two obese groups were constituted. The groups were matched in terms of mean ± SD values of ages. Body mass index values of obese and morbidly obese groups were 25.0 ± 3.5 kg/m² and 29.8 ± 5.7 kg/m², respectively. Anthropometric measurements including waist circumference, hip circumference, head circumference, and neck circumference were recorded. Informed consent forms were taken from the parents of the participants. The ethics committee of the institution approved the study protocol. Blood samples were obtained after overnight fasting. Routine biochemical tests, including glucose- and lipid-related parameters, were performed. Concentrations of the hepatokines (adropin, FGF-21, fetuin A) were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Insulin resistance indices such as homeostasis model assessment for IR (HOMA-IR), alanine transaminase-to aspartate transaminase ratio (ALT/AST), diagnostic obesity notation model assessment laboratory index, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment metabolic syndrome index as well as obesity indices such as diagnostic obesity notation model assessment-II index, and fat mass index were calculated using the previously derived formulas. Statistical evaluation of the study data as well as findings of the study was performed by SPSS for Windows. Statistical difference was accepted significant when p is smaller than 0.05. Statistically significant differences were found for insulin, triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of the groups. A significant increase was observed for FGF-21 concentrations in the morbidly obese group. Higher adropin and fetuin-A concentrations were observed in the same group in comparison with the values detected in the obese group (p > 0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between the ALT/AST values of the groups. In all of the remaining IR and obesity indices, significantly increased values were calculated for morbidly obese children. Significant correlations were detected between HOMA-IR and each of the hepatokines. The highest one was the association with fetuin-A (r=0.373, p=0.001). In conclusion, increased levels observed in adropin, FGF-21, and fetuin-A have shown that these hepatokines possess increasing potential going from obese to morbid obese state. Out of the correlations found with the IR index, the most affected hepatokine was fetuin-A, the parameter possibly used as the indicator of the advanced obesity stage.

Keywords: adropin, fetuin A, fibroblast growth factor-21, insulin resistance, pediatric obesity

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Authors: Chu Wai Ching, Kan Chi Wai

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Fashion industry is fast moving with intense competitions; it is hard for fashion retailers to stand out among their peers. In order to promote and enhance uniqueness, fashion retailers have collaborated with different brands or celebrity in their marketing campaign recently. As brand-celebrity collaboration is a growing phenomenon in the Hong Kong fashion industry, this research aims to investigate the effect of celebrity on altering consumer’s brand association and the overall attitude towards the co-branded products. One of the popular celebrity-collaborated fashion brands was chosen for this study and a survey was conducted among university students in Hong Kong which yielded 222 responses. By using factor analysis, linear regression and bootstrap test for the mediation, the results show that three celebrity attributes namely “expertise”, “trustworthiness” and “attractiveness” affect the evaluation of the co-branded products. In addition, the change in the association of the brand and co-branded product attributes mediates the relationship between the characteristics of the celebrity and the overall attitude of the co-branded product. The result shows “expertise” of the celebrity has a perfect mediation, while “trustworthiness” and “attractiveness” of the celebrity have partial mediation. This implies that expertise of the celebrity is capable in altering the association towards both the brand and core product attributes and bringing a positive attitude towards the co-brand. The trustworthiness and the attractiveness of the celebrity are able to alter the consumer association towards the brand, but do not guarantee a complete positive attitude towards the co-branded product. This means that change in brand attributes is not a definite mediator as direct relationship may happen or there may be other factors that can affect the relationship between the celebrity’s persuasiveness and the overall attitude towards the co-branded collection.

Keywords: brand attribute, brand-celebrity collaborations, co-branding, fashion industry

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Authors: Iveta Bryjova

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Recording of viscoelastic strain-vs-time curves with the aid of the suction method and a follow-up analysis, resulting into evaluation of standard viscoelastic parameters, is a significant technique for non-invasive contact diagnostics of mechanical properties of skin and assessment of its conditions, particularly in acute burns, hypertrophic scarring (the most common complication of burn trauma) and reconstructive surgery. For elimination of the skin thickness contribution, usable viscoelastic parameters deduced from the strain-vs-time curves are restricted to the relative ones (i.e. those expressed as a ratio of two dimensional parameters), like grosselasticity, net-elasticity, biological elasticity or Qu’s area parameters, in literature and practice conventionally referred to as R2, R5, R6, R7, Q1, Q2, and Q3. With the exception of parameters R2 and Q1, the remaining ones substantially depend on the position of inflection point separating the elastic linear and viscoelastic segments of the strain-vs-time curve. The standard algorithm implemented in commercially available devices relies heavily on the experimental fact that the inflection time comes about 0.1 sec after the suction switch-on/off, which depreciates credibility of parameters thus obtained. Although the Qu’s US 7,556,605 patent suggests a method of improving the precision of the inflection determination, there is still room for nonnegligible improving. In this contribution, a novel method of inflection point determination utilizing the advantageous properties of the Savitzky–Golay filtering is presented. The method allows computation of derivatives of smoothed strain-vs-time curve, more exact location of inflection and consequently more reliable values of aforementioned viscoelastic parameters. An improved applicability of the five inflection-dependent relative viscoelastic parameters is demonstrated by recasting a former study under the new method, and by comparing its results with those provided by the methods that have been used so far.

Keywords: Savitzky–Golay filter, scarring, skin, viscoelasticity

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Authors: Natalia Pacheco Rego

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The Liezation functor is a map from the category of Leibniz algebras to the category of Lie algebras, which assigns a Leibniz algebra to the Lie algebra given by the quotient of the Leibniz algebra by the ideal spanned by the square elements of the Leibniz algebra. This functor is left adjoint to the inclusion functor that considers a Lie algebra as a Leibniz algebra. This environment fits in the framework of central extensions and commutators in semi-abelian categories with respect to a Birkhoff subcategory, where classical or absolute notions are relative to the abelianization functor. Classical properties of Leibniz algebras (properties relative to the abelianization functor) were adapted to the relative setting (with respect to the Liezation functor); in general, absolute properties have the corresponding relative ones, but not all absolute properties immediately hold in the relative case, so new requirements are needed. Following this line of research, it was conducted an analysis of central derivations of Leibniz algebras relative to the Liezation functor, called as Lie-derivations, and a characterization of Lie-stem Leibniz algebras by their Lie-central derivations was obtained. In this paper, we present an overview of these results, and we analyze some new properties concerning Lie-central derivations and almost inner Lie-derivations. Namely, a Leibniz algebra is a vector space equipped with a bilinear bracket operation satisfying the Leibniz identity. We define the Lie-bracket by [x, y]lie = [x, y] + [y, x] , for all x, y . The Lie-center of a Leibniz algebra is the two-sided ideal of elements that annihilate all the elements in the Leibniz algebra through the Lie-bracket. A Lie-derivation is a linear map which acts as a derivative with respect to the Lie-bracket. Obviously, usual derivations are Lie-derivations, but the converse is not true in general. A Lie-derivation is called a Lie-central derivation if its image is contained in the Lie-center. A Lie-derivation is called an almost inner Lie-derivation if the image of an element x is contained in the Lie-commutator of x and the Leibniz algebra. The main results we present in this talk refer to the conditions under which Lie-central derivation and almost inner Lie-derivations coincide.

Keywords: almost inner Lie-derivation, Lie-center, Lie-central derivation, Lie-derivation

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Authors: A. Rong, P. B. Luh, R. Lahdelma

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High penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) such as solar power and wind power into the energy system has caused temporal and spatial imbalance between electric power supply and demand for some countries and regions. This brings about the critical need for coordinating power production and power exchange for different regions. As compared with the power-only systems, the combined heat and power (CHP) systems can provide additional flexibility of utilizing RES by exploiting the interdependence of power and heat production in the CHP plant. In the CHP system, power production can be influenced by adjusting heat production level and electric power can be used to satisfy heat demand by electric boiler or heat pump in conjunction with heat storage, which is much cheaper than electric storage. This paper addresses multi-site CHP systems without considering RES, which lay foundation for handling penetration of RES. The problem under study is the unit commitment (UC) of the transmission-constrained multi-site CHP systems. We solve the problem by combining linear relaxation of ON/OFF states and sequential dynamic programming (DP) techniques, where relaxed states are used to reduce the dimension of the UC problem and DP for improving the solution quality. Numerical results for daily scheduling with realistic models and data show that DP-based algorithm is from a few to a few hundred times faster than CPLEX (standard commercial optimization software) with good solution accuracy (less than 1% relative gap from the optimal solution on the average).

Keywords: dynamic programming, multi-site combined heat and power system, relaxed states, transmission-constrained generation unit commitment

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Authors: Pilar Gamarra Gamarra, Michele Girotto

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In the expanding field of leaders’ ethical behavior research, little attention has been paid to the association between finance leaders’ ethical traits (beyond personality) and ethical leadership, and more importantly, how these ethical characteristics can be predictors of ethical behavior at the leadership level in the financial sector. In this study, we tested a theoretical model based on uponsocial cognitive theory (Bandura, 1986) and the cognitive-developmental model (Piaget, 1932) to examine leaders’ moral identity and moral attentiveness as antecedents of ethical leadership. After the 2008 economic crisis, the marketplace has awakened to the potential dangers of unethical behavior. The unethical behavior of the leaders of the financial sector was identified as guilty of this economic catastrophe. For that reason, it seems increasingly prudent for organizations to have leaders who are cognitively inclined toward ethical behavior. This evidence suggests that moral attentiveness and moral identity is perhaps one way of identifying those kinds of leaders. For leaders who are morally attentive and have a high moral identity, themes of ethics interventions are consistent with their way of seeing the word. As a result, these leaders could become critical components of change in organizations and could provide the energy and skills necessary for these efforts to be successful. Ethical behavior of leader from the financial sector and marketing sectors must be joined to manage the change. In this study, a leader’s moral identity, leader’s moral attentiveness, and self-importance of Ethical Leadership are measured for financial and marketing leaders to be compared to determine the relationship between the three variables in each sector. Other conclusion related to gender, educational level or generation are obtained.

Keywords: ethical leadership, moral identity, moral attentiveness, financial leaders, marketing leaders, ethical behavior

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Authors: Mahtsente Tadese, Lalit Kumar, Richard Koech

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The aim of this study was to project and analyze climate change in the Awash River Basin (ARB) using bias-corrected Global and Regional Climate Model simulations. The analysis included a baseline period from 1986-2005 and two future scenarios (the 2050s and 2070s) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Bias correction methods were evaluated using graphical and statistical methods. Following the evaluation of bias correction methods, the Distribution Mapping (DM) and Power Transformation (PT) were used for temperature and precipitation projection, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4 simulations showed an increase in precipitation during half of the months with 32 and 10%, respectively. Moreover, the 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a decrease in precipitation with 18 and 26%, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a significant decrease in precipitation in four of the months (February/March to May) with the highest decreasing rate of 34.7%. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4.5 simulation showed an increase of 0.48-2.6 °C in maximum temperature. In the case of RCP8.5, the increase rate reached 3.4 °C and 4.1 °C in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. The changes in precipitation and temperature might worsen the water stress, flood, and drought in ARB. Moreover, the critical focus should be given to mitigation strategies and management options to reduce the negative impact. The findings of this study provide valuable information on future precipitation and temperature change in ARB, which will help in the planning and design of sustainable mitigation approaches in the basin.

Keywords: variability, climate change, Awash River Basin, precipitation

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Authors: Goutom K. Pall

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At the very heart of the power system, power transmission (PT) acts as an essential link between power generation and distribution. Timely completion of PT infrastructures is therefore crucial to support the development of power system as a whole. Yet despite the importance, studies on PT infrastructure development projects are embryonic and, hence, PT projects undergoing widespread delays worldwide. These delay factors are idiosyncratic and identifying the critical delay factors is essential if the PT industry professionals are to complete their projects efficiently and within the expected timeframes. This study identifies and categorizes 46 causes of PT project delay under ten major groups using six sector expert’s recommendations studied by a preliminary questionnaire survey. Based on the experts’ strong recommendations, two new groups are introduced in the final questionnaire survey: sector specific factors (SSF) and general factors (GF). SSF pertain to delay factors applicable only to the PT projects, while GF represents less biased samples with shared responsibilities of all project parties involved in a project. The study then uses 112 data samples from the contractors to rank the delay factors using relative importance index (RII). The results reveal that SSF, GF and external factors are the most critical groups, while the highest ranked delay factors include the right of way (RoW) problems of transmission lines (TL), delay in payments, frequent changes in TL routes, poor communication and coordination among the project parties and accessibility to TL tower locations. Finally, recommendations are made to minimize the identified delay. The findings are expected to be of substantial benefit to professionals in minimizing time overrun in PT projects implementation, as well as power generation, power distribution, and non-power linear construction projects worldwide.

Keywords: delay, project delay, power transmission projects, time-overruns

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Authors: Prakash Singh

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The question that arises is whether a theory such as the Collegial Leadership Model of Emancipation (COLME) has the potency to introduce leadership change by empowering and emancipating their employees. It is a fallacy to simply assume that experience alone, in the absence of theory, will contribute to this knowledge base to develop collegial leaders. The focus of this study is to therefore ascertain whether the COLME can serve as a conceptual framework to transform traditional bureaucratic management practices (TBMPs) in order to promote shared decision-making in organizations such as schools. All the respondents in this exploratory qualitative study embraced collegiality to transform TBMPs in their organizations. For the positive effects to be sustained, the collegial practices need to be evolutionary and emancipatory in order to evoke the values of collegial leadership as elucidated by the findings of this study. Interviewees affirmed that the COLME provides an astute framework to develop commendable collegial leadership practices as it clearly outlines procedures to develop and use the leadership potential of all the employees in order to foster joint accountability. They acknowledged that when the principles of collegiality are flexibly applied, they contribute to the creation of a holistic milieu in which all employees are able to express themselves freely, without fear of failure, and thus feel that they are part of the democratic decision-making process. Evidently, a conceptual framework such as the COLME can serve as a benchmark for leadership effectiveness because organizational outcomes need to be measured against standards of excellence in meeting both employee and customer expectations.

Keywords: collegial leadership model, employee empowerment, shared decision-making, traditional bureaucratic management practices

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Authors: Francisco Pedroza-Montero, Jesús Naín Pedroza-Montero, Diego Soto-Puebla, Osiris Alvarez-Bajo, Beatriz Castaneda, Sofía Navarro-Espinoza, Martín Pedroza-Montero

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Nanodiamonds have been widely studied for their physical properties, including chemical inertness, biocompatibility, optical transparency from the ultraviolet to the infrared region, high thermal conductivity, and mechanical strength. In this work, we studied how the fluorescence spectrum of nanodiamonds quenches concerning the concentration in aqueous solutions systematically ranging from 0.1 to 10 mg/mL. Our results demonstrated a non-linear fluorescence quenching as the concentration increases for both of the NV zero-phonon lines; the 5 mg/mL concentration shows the maximum fluorescence emission. Furthermore, this behaviour is theoretically explained as an electronic recombination process that modulates the intensity in the NV centres. Finally, to gain more insight, the FRET methodology is used to determine the fluorescence efficiency in terms of the fluorophores' separation distance. Thus, the concentration level is simulated as follows, a small distance between nanodiamonds would be considered a highly concentrated system, whereas a large distance would mean a low concentrated one. Although the 5 mg/mL concentration shows the maximum intensity, our main interest is focused on the concentration of 0.5 mg/mL, which our studies demonstrate the optimal human cell viability (99%). In this respect, this concentration has the feature of being as biocompatible as water giving the possibility to internalize it in cells without harming the living media. To this end, not only can we track nanodiamonds on the surface or inside the cell with excellent precision due to their fluorescent intensity, but also, we can perform thermometry tests transforming a fluorescence contrast image into a temperature contrast image.

Keywords: nanodiamonds, fluorescence spectroscopy, concentration, bioimaging, thermometry

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Authors: Christopher Benedikt Jakob

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Human beings are intrigued by luxury watches for decades. It is fascinating that customers pay an enormous amount of money for specific wristwatch models. It is fascinating that customers of the luxury watch industry accept a yearly price increase. This behavior increases their desirability even more. Luxury watches are perceived as status symbols, but they are additionally accepted as a currency without the disadvantage of currency fluctuations. It is obvious that the symbolic value is more important as the functional value with reference to the buying-reasons as regards luxury watches. Nowadays human beings do not need a wristwatch to read the time. Tablets, notebooks, smartphones, the watch in the car and watches on public places are used to inform people about the current time. This is one of the reasons why there is a trend that people do not wear wristwatches anymore. Due to these facts, this study has the intention to give answers to the question why people invest an enormous amount of money on the consumption of luxury watches and why those watches are seen as a status symbol. The study examines why the luxury watch industry records significant growth rates. The self-expression model is used as an appropriate methodology to find reasons why human beings purchase specific luxury watches. This evaluative approach further discusses if human beings are aware of their current self and their ideal self and how they express them. Furthermore, the research critically evaluates the people’s social self and their ideal social self. One of the goals is to identify if customers know why they like specific luxury watches and dislike others although they have the same quality and cost comparable prices.

Keywords: luxury watch, brand awareness, buying-behaviour, consumer, self-expression

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Authors: Ju-Hong Lee, Yi-Lin Shieh

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Two-dimensional (2-D) quadrature mirror filter (QMF) banks have been widely considered for high-quality coding of image and video data at low bit rates. Without implementing subband coding, a 2-D QMF bank is required to have an exactly linear-phase response without magnitude distortion, i.e., the perfect reconstruction (PR) characteristics. The design problem of 2-D QMF banks with the PR characteristics has been considered in the literature for many years. This paper presents a transformation approach for designing 2-D two-channel QMF banks. Under a suitable one-dimensional (1-D) to two-dimensional (2-D) transformation with a specified decimation/interpolation matrix, the analysis and synthesis filters of the QMF bank are composed of 1-D causal and stable digital allpass filters (DAFs) and possess the 2-D doubly complementary half-band (DC-HB) property. This facilitates the design problem of the two-channel QMF banks by finding the real coefficients of the 1-D recursive DAFs. The design problem is formulated based on the minimax phase approximation for the 1-D DAFs. A novel objective function is then derived to obtain an optimization for 1-D minimax phase approximation. As a result, the problem of minimizing the objective function can be simply solved by using the well-known weighted least-squares (WLS) algorithm in the minimax (L∞) optimal sense. The novelty of the proposed design method is that the design procedure is very simple and the designed 2-D QMF bank achieves perfect magnitude response and possesses satisfactory phase response. Simulation results show that the proposed design method provides much better design performance and much less design complexity as compared with the existing techniques.

Keywords: Quincunx QMF bank, doubly complementary filter, digital allpass filter, WLS algorithm

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Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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Authors: Zhi Zhang, Liling Cao, Seyedbabak Momenzadeh, Lisa Davey

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Reinforced concrete (RC) flat slab-column systems are commonly used in residential or office buildings, as the flat slab provides efficient clearance resulting in more stories at a given height than regular reinforced concrete beam-slab system. Punching shear of slab-column joints is a critical component of two-way reinforced concrete flat slab design. The unbalanced moment at the joint is transferred via slab moment and shear forces. ACI 318 provides an equation to evaluate the punching shear under the design load. It is important to note that the design code considers gravity and environmental load when considering the design load combinations, while it does not consider the effect from differential foundation settlement, which may be a governing load condition for the slab design. This paper describes how prestressed reinforced concrete slab punching shear is evaluated based on ACI 318 provisions and finite element analysis. A prestressed reinforced concrete slab under differential settlements is studied using the finite element modeling methodology. The punching shear check equation is explained. The methodology to extract data for punching shear check from the finite element model is described and correlated with the corresponding code provisions. The study indicates that the finite element analysis results should be carefully reviewed and processed in order to perform accurate punching shear evaluation. Conclusions are made based on the case studies to help engineers understand the punching shear behavior in prestressed and non-prestressed reinforced concrete slabs.

Keywords: differential settlement, finite element model, prestressed reinforced concrete slab, punching shear

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Authors: Bo Yan, Amy Y. M. Chow

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Bereavement is recognized as a universal challenging experience. It is important to gather research evidence on protective factors in bereavement. Hope is considered as one of the protective factors in previous coping studies. The present study aims to add knowledge by investigating hope at the first month after death to predict psychological symptoms altogether including complicated grief (CG), anxiety, and depressive symptoms at the seventh month. The data were collected via one-on-one interview survey in a longitudinal project with Hong Kong hospice users (sample size 105). Most participants were at their middle age (49-year-old on average), female (72%), with no religious affiliation (58%). Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling (BSEM) analysis was conducted on the longitudinal dataset. The BSEM findings show that hope at the first month of bereavement negatively predicts both CG and anxiety symptoms at the seventh month but not for depressive symptoms. Age and gender are controlled in the model. The overall model fit is good. The current study findings suggest assessing hope at the first month of bereavement. Hope at the first month after the loss is identified as an excellent predictor for complicated grief and anxiety symptoms at the seventh month. The result from this sample is clear, so it encourages cross-cultural research on replicated modeling and development of further clinical application. Particularly, practical consideration for early intervention to increase the level of hope has the potential to reduce the psychological symptoms and thus to improve the bereaved persons’ wellbeing in the long run.

Keywords: anxiety, complicated grief, depressive symptoms, hope, structural equational modeling

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