Search results for: risk estimation

Authors: Saud Al Mahdi

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Traditionally,portfolio managers have been discouraged from timing the market. This means, for example, that equity managers have been forced to adhere strictly to a benchmark with static or relatively stable components, such as the SP 500 or the Russell 3000. This means that the portfolio’s exposures to all risk factors should mimic as closely as possible the corresponding exposures of the benchmark. The main risk factor, of course, is the market itself. Effectively, a long-only portfolio would be constrained to have a beta 1. More recently, however, managers have been given greater discretion to adjust their portfolio’s risk exposures (in particular, the beta of their portfolio) dynamically to match the manager’s beliefs about future performance of the risk factors themselves. This freedom translates into the manager’s ability to adjust the portfolio’s beta dynamically. These strategies have come to be known as smart beta strategies. Adjusting beta dynamically amounts to attempting to "time" the market; that is, to increase exposure when one anticipates that the market will rise, and to decrease it when one anticipates that the market will fall. Traditionally, market timing has been believed to be impossible to perform effectively and consistently. Moreover, if a majority of market participants do it, their combined actions could destabilize the market. The aim of this project is to investigate so-called smart beta strategies to determine if they really can add value, or if they are merely marketing gimmicks used to sell dubious investment strategies.

Keywords: beta, alpha, active portfolio management, trading strategies

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Authors: Anikó Kaluzsa

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The article's author aims to introduce and analyze those microbiological safety hazards which indicate the presence of secondary contamination in the water supply system. Since drinking water belongs to primary foods and is the basic condition of life, special attention should be paid on its quality. There are such indicators among the microbiological features can be found in water, which are clear evidence of the presence of water contamination, and based on this there is no need to perform other diagnostics, because they prove properly the contamination of the given water supply section. Laboratory analysis can help - both technologically and temporally – to identify contamination, but it does matter how long takes the removal and if the disinfection process takes place in time. The identification of the factors that often occur in the same places or the chance of their occurrence is greater than the average, facilitates our work. The pathogen microbiological risk assessment by the help of several features determines the most likely occurring microbiological features in the Carpathian basin. From among all the microbiological indicators, that are recommended targets for routine inspection by the World Health Organization, there is a paramount importance of the appearance of Escherichia coli in the water network, as its presence indicates the potential ubietiy of enteric pathogens or other contaminants in the water network. In addition, the author presents the steps of microbiological risk assessment analyzing those pathogenic micro-organisms registered to be the most critical.

Keywords: drinking water, E. coli, microbiological indicators, risk assessment, water safety plan

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Authors: Andi Fallahi, Bona Ryan Situmeang

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The Construction Industry is notoriously risky. Much of the preparatory paperwork that precedes construction project can be viewed as the formulation of risk allocation between the owner and the Contractor. The Owner is taking the risk that his project will not get built on the schedule that it will not get built for what he has budgeted and that it will not be of the quality he expected. The Contractor Face a multitude of risk. One of them is an unforeseen condition at the construction site. The Owner usually has the upper hand here if the unforeseen condition occurred. Site data contained in Ground Investigation report is often of significant contractual importance in disputes related to the unforeseen ground condition. A ground investigation can never fully disclose all the details of the underground condition (Risk of an unknown ground condition can never be 100% eliminated). Adipala Coal Fired Steam Power Plant (CSFPP) 1 x 660 project is one of the large CSFPP project in Indonesia based on Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) Contract. Unforeseen Ground Condition it’s responsible by the Contractor has stipulated in the clausal of Contract. In the implementation, there’s indicated unforeseen ground condition at Circulating Water Pump House (CWPH) area which caused the Contractor should be changed the Method of Work that give big impact against Time of Completion and Cost Project. This paper tries to analyze the best way for allocating the risk between The Owner and The Contractor. All parties that allocating of sharing risk fairly can ultimately save time and money for all parties, and get the job done on schedule for the least overall cost.

Keywords: unforeseen ground condition, coal fired steam power plant, circulating water pump house, Indonesia

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Authors: Olivia R. Rendon

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More than half of the world population lives in cities, in the UK, for example, 82% of the population was urban by 2013. Cities concentrate valuable and numerous infrastructure and sectors of the national economies. Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change which will lead to higher damage costs in the future. There is thus a need to develop and invest in adaptation measures for cities to reduce the impact of flooding and other extreme weather events. Recent flood episodes present a significant and growing challenge to the UK and the estimated cost of urban flood damage is 270 million a year for England and Wales. This study aims to carry out cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of a nature-based approach for flood risk management in cities, focusing on the city of Leeds and the wider Aire catchment as a case study. Leeds was chosen as a case study due to its being one of the most flood vulnerable cities in the UK. In Leeds, over 4,500 properties are currently vulnerable to flooding and approximately £450 million of direct damage is estimated for a potential major flood from the River Aire. Leeds is also the second largest Metropolitan District in England with a projected population of 770,000 for 2014. So far the city council has mainly focused its flood risk management efforts on hard infrastructure solutions for the city centre. However, the wider Leeds district is at significant flood risk which could benefit from greener adaptation measures. This study presents estimates of a nature-based adaptation approach for flood risk management in Leeds. This land use management estimate is based on generating costings utilising primary and secondary data. This research contributes findings on the costs of different adaptation measures to flood risk management in a UK city, including the trade-offs and challenges of utilising nature-based solutions. Results also explore the potential implementation of the adaptation measures in the case study and the challenges of data collection and analysis for adaptation in flood risk management.

Keywords: green infrastructure, ecosystem services, woodland, adaptation, flood risk

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Authors: Yaacoub Tina, Youssef Roua, Radoi Emanuel, Burel Gilles

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Recently, low-complexity sub-Nyquist sampling schemes based on the Finite Rate of Innovation (FRI) theory have been introduced to sample parametric signals at minimum rates. The multichannel modulating waveforms (MCMW) is such an efficient scheme, where the received signal is mixed with an appropriate set of arbitrary waveforms, integrated and sampled at rates far below the Nyquist rate. In this paper, the MCMW scheme is adapted to the special case of ultra wideband (UWB) channel estimation, characterized by dense multipaths. First, an appropriate structure, which accounts for the bandpass spectrum feature of UWB signals, is defined. Then, a novel approach to decrease the number of processing channels and reduce the complexity of this sampling scheme is presented. Finally, the proposed concepts are validated by simulation results, obtained with real filters, in the framework of a coherent Rake receiver.

Keywords: coherent rake receiver, finite rate of innovation, sub-nyquist sampling, ultra wideband

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Authors: Roohallah Fallah-Moshkani, Mohammad Ali Mohsenpour, Reza Ghiasvand, Hossein Khosravi-Boroujeni, Seyed Mehdi Ahmadi, Paula Brauer, Amin Salehi-Abargouei

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Purpose: Several investigations have proposed the protective association between dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH) style diet and risk of cancers; however, they have led to inconsistent results. The present study aimed to systematically review the prospective cohort studies conducted in this regard and, if possible, to quantify the overall effect of using meta-analysis. Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and Google Scholar were searched for cohort studies published up to December 2017. Relative risks (RRs) which were reported for fully adjusted models and their confidence intervals were extracted for meta-analysis. Random effects model was incorporated to combine the RRs. Results: Sixteen studies were eligible to be included in the systematic review from which 8 reports were conducted on the effect of DASH on the risk of mortality from all cancer types, four on the risk of colorectal cancer, and three on the risk of colon and rectal cancer. Four studies examined the association with other cancers (breast, hepatic, endometrial, and lung cancer). Meta-analysis showed that high concordance with DASH significantly decreases the risk of all cancer types (RR=0.83, 95% confidence interval (95%CI):0.80-0.85); furthermore participants who highly adhered to the DASH had lower risk of developing colorectal (RR=0.79, 95%CI: 0.75-0.83), colon (RR=0.81, 95%CI: 0.74-0.87) and rectal (RR=0.79, 95%CI: 0.63-0.98) cancer compared to those with the lowest adherence. Conclusions: DASH-style diet should be suggested as a healthy approach to protect from cancer in the community. Prospective studies exploring the effect on other cancer types and from regions other than the United States are highly recommended.

Keywords: cancer, DASH-style diet, dietary patterns, meta-analysis, systematic review

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Authors: Atrin Barzegar, Yas Barzegar, Stefano Marrone, Francesco Bellini, Laura Verde

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The aim of this research is to develop an intelligent system to analyze the risk level of wheat flour product manufacturing system. The model consists of five Fuzzy Inference Systems in two different layers to analyse the risk of a wheat flour product manufacturing system. The first layer of the model consists of four Fuzzy Inference Systems with three criteria. The output of each one of the Physical, Chemical, Biological and Environmental Failures will be the input of the final manufacturing systems. The proposed model based on Mamdani Fuzzy Inference Systems gives a performance ranking of wheat flour products manufacturing systems. The first step is obtaining data to identify the failure modes from expert’s opinions. The second step is the fuzzification process to convert crisp input to a fuzzy set., then the IF-then fuzzy rule applied through inference engine, and in the final step, the defuzzification process is applied to convert the fuzzy output into real numbers.

Keywords: failure modes, fuzzy rules, fuzzy inference system, risk assessment

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Authors: Rula D. Alshareef, Safa S. Alqathmi, Ghadah K. Alkhouldi, Reem O. Bagabas, Farheen B. Hasan

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Safety engineering is among the most crucial considerations in any work environment. Providing mentally, physically, and environmentally safe work conditions must be the top priority of any successful organization. Company X is a local paint production company in Saudi Arabia; in a month, the factory experienced two significant accidents, which indicates that workers’ safety is overlooked. The aim of the research is to examine the risks, assess the root causes and recommend control measures that will eventually contribute to providing a safe workplace. The methodology used is sectioned into three phases, risk identification, assessment, and finally, mitigation. In the identification phase, the team used Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) and National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Lifting Index (NIOSH LI) tools to holistically establish knowledge about the current risk posed to the factory. The physical hazards in the factory were assessed in two different operations, which are mixing and filling/packaging. For the risk assessment phase, the hazards were deeply analyzed through their severity and impact. Additionally, through risk mitigation, the Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) score decreased from 11 to 7, and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Lifting Index (NIOSH LI) has been reduced from 5.27 to 1.85.

Keywords: ergonomics, safety, workplace risks, hazards, awkward posture, fatigue, work environment

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Authors: Daohong Yang, Xiang Zhang, Lei Li, Wanting Zhou

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Visual Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (VSLAM) is a technology that obtains information in the environment for self-positioning and mapping. It is widely used in computer vision, robotics and other fields. Many visual SLAM systems, such as OBSLAM3, employ a constant-speed motion model that provides the initial pose of the current frame to improve the speed and accuracy of feature matching. However, in actual situations, the constant velocity motion model is often difficult to be satisfied, which may lead to a large deviation between the obtained initial pose and the real value, and may lead to errors in nonlinear optimization results. Therefore, this paper proposed a motion model based on acceleration, which can be applied on most SLAM systems. In order to better describe the acceleration of the camera pose, we decoupled the pose transformation matrix, and calculated the rotation matrix and the translation vector respectively, where the rotation matrix is represented by rotation vector. We assume that, in a short period of time, the changes of rotating angular velocity and translation vector remain the same. Based on this assumption, the initial pose of the current frame is estimated. In addition, the error of constant velocity model was analyzed theoretically. Finally, we applied our proposed approach to the ORBSLAM3 system and evaluated two sets of sequences on the TUM dataset. The results showed that our proposed method had a more accurate initial pose estimation and the accuracy of ORBSLAM3 system is improved by 6.61% and 6.46% respectively on the two test sequences.

Keywords: error estimation, constant acceleration motion model, pose estimation, visual SLAM

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Authors: Huayun Zhai, Quan Hu, Wei-Chih Chiang, Jianjun Du

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By applying experimental methodology in the framework of the behavior-perception theory, this paper studies the relationship between information quality of corporates’ social responsibility (CSR) and individual investors’ risk perception, intermediated with individual investors’ perception on CSR. The findings are as follows: In general, the information quality of CSR significantly influences individual investors’ perception on investment risks. Furthermore, certification on CSR can help reinforce such perceptions. The higher the reporting quality of CSR is, accompanied by the certification by an independent third party, the more likely individual investors recognize the responsibilities. The research also found that the perception on CSR not only plays a role of intermediation between information quality about CSR and investors’ perception on investment risk but also intermediates the certification of CSR reports and individual investors’ judgment on investment risks. The main contributions of the research are in two folds. The first is that it supplements the research on CSR from the perspective of investors’ perceptions. The second is that the research provides theoretical and experimental evidence for enterprises to implement and improve reports on their social responsibilities.

Keywords: information quality, corporate social responsibility, report certification, individual investors’ perception on risk, perception of corporate social responsibility

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Authors: Yousef S. Kh. S. Hashem

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Accurate estimation of initial gas in place (IGIP) plays an important factor in the decision to develop a gas field. One of the methods that are available in the industry to estimate the IGIP is material balance. This method required that the well has to be shut-in while pressure is measured as it builds to average reservoir pressure. Since gas demand is high and shut-in well surveys are very expensive, flowing gas material balance (FGMB) is sometimes used instead of material balance. This work investigated the effect of reservoir properties (pressure, permeability, and reservoir size) on the estimation of IGIP when using FGMB. A gas reservoir simulator that accounts for friction loss, wellbore storage, and the non-Darcy effect was used to simulate 165 different possible causes (3 pressures, 5 reservoir sizes, and 11 permeabilities). Both tubing pressure and bottom-hole pressure were analyzed using FGMB. The results showed that the FGMB method is very sensitive for tied reservoirs (k < 10). Also, it showed which method is best to be used for different reservoir properties. This study can be used as a guideline for the application of the FGMB method.

Keywords: flowing material balance, gas reservoir, reserves, gas simulator

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Authors: Guanghua Lu, Zhenhua Yan

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To investigate the estrogenic contamination and potential risk of Taihu Lake, eight active biomonitoring points in the northern section of Taihu Lake were set up and located in Wangyuhe River outlet (P1), Gonghu Bay (P2 and P3), Meiliang Bay (P4 and P5), Zhushan Bay (P6 and P7) and Lake Centre (P8). A suite of biomarkers in caged fish after in situ exposure for 28 days, coupled with six selected exogenous estrogens in water, were determined in May and December 2011. Six target estrogens, namely estrone (E1), 17b-estradiol (E2), ethinylestradiol (EE2), estriol (E3), diethylstilbestrol (DES) and bisphenol A (BPA), were quantified using UPLC/MS/MS. The concentrations of E1, E2, E3, EE2, DES and BPA ranged from ND to 3.61 ng/L, ND to 17.3 ng/L, ND to 1.65 ng/L, ND to 10.2 ng/L, ND to 34.6 ng/L, and 3.95 to 207 ng/L, respectively. BPA was detected at all sampling points at all test periods, E2 was detected at 95% of samples, E1 and EE2 was detected at 75% of samples, and E3 was detected only in December 2011 with quite low concentrations. Each individual estrogen concentration measured at each sampling point was multiplied by its relative potency to gain the estradiol equivalent (EEQ). The total EEQ values in all the monitoring points ranged from 5.69 to 17.8 ng/L in May 2011, and from 4.46 to 21.1 ng/L in December 2011. E2 and EE2 were thought to be the major causal agents responsible for the estrogenic activities. Serum vitellogenin and E2 levels, gonadal DNA damage, and gonadosomatic index were measured in the in situ exposed fish. An enhanced integrated biomarker response (EIBR) was calculated and used to evaluate potential feminization risk of fish in the polluted area of Taihu Lake. EIBR index showed good agreement with the observed total EEQ levels in water. Our results indicated that Gong bay and the lake center had a low estrogenic risk, whereas Wangyuhe River, Meiliang Bay, and Zhushan Bay might present a higher risk to fish.

Keywords: active biomonitoring, estrogen, feminization risk, Taihu Lake

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Authors: Jose Cristiano Pereira, Gilson Brito Alves Lima

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Ergonomics is a key factor affecting the operational safety and quality in the aircraft engine manufacturing industry and evidence shows that the lack of attention to it can increase the risk of accidents. In order to emphasize the importance of ergonomics, this paper systematically reviews the critical processes used in the aircraft engine production industry with focus on the ergonomic factors. about the subject to identify key ergonomic factors. Experts validated the factors and used AHP to rank the factors in order of significance. From the six key risk factors identified, the ones with the highest weight are psychological demand followed by understanding of operational side. These factors suggest that measures must be taken to improve ergonomic factors, quality and safety in the manufacturing of aircraft engines.

Keywords: ergonomics, safety, aviation, aircraft engine production

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Authors: Serge Provost, Yishan Zang

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Copulas are currently utilized in finance, reliability theory, machine learning, signal processing, geodesy, hydrology and biostatistics, among several other fields of scientific investigation. It follows from Sklar's theorem that the joint distribution function of a multidimensional random vector can be expressed in terms of its associated copula and marginals. Since marginal distributions can easily be determined by making use of a variety of techniques, we address the problem of securing the distribution of the copula. This will be done by using several approaches. For example, we will obtain bivariate least-squares approximations of the empirical copulas, modify the kernel density estimation technique and propose a criterion for selecting appropriate bandwidths, differentiate linearized empirical copulas, secure Bernstein polynomial approximations of suitable degrees, and apply a corollary to Sklar's result. Illustrative examples involving actual observations will be presented. The proposed methodologies will as well be applied to a sample generated from a known copula distribution in order to validate their effectiveness.

Keywords: copulas, Bernstein polynomial approximation, least-squares polynomial approximation, kernel density estimation, density approximation

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Authors: Lalrokima Chenkual

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Legal provision and various guidelines issued by the National Disaster Management Authority in India strives for setting up of disaster management authority from the central government to the district level. Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction practice is still relevant as the communities are the victim as well as the first responder in any incidents. The primary goal of Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction is to reduce vulnerability of the concerned community and strengthen its existing capacity to cope with disaster. By involving the community in the preparedness phase, it not only increases the likelihood of coordinated action by the communities to help in mitigating disasters and lessening the impact of disaster but also brings the community together to address the issue collectively. Community participation ensures local ownership, addresses local needs, and promotes volunteerism and mutual help to prevent and minimise damage. Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction is very much relevant for Mizoram as the society is closed knit, population is very less, religion homogeneity i.e Christianity, very active and widespread community-based organization viz, Young Mizo Association, MHIP (Women Federation), MUP (Elders Clubs which are guided together by Mizo code of morals conduct termed as Tlawmngaihna.

Keywords: community, close-knit, first responder, Tlawmngaihna

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Authors: Suzan Salem, Heba Moustafa, Abd El-Aziz Abd El-Aal

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Seismic micro hazard zonation for urban areas is the first step towards a seismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy. Essential here is to obtain a proper understanding of the local subsurface conditions and to evaluate ground-shaking effects. In the present study, an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard considering local site effects by carrying out detailed geotechnical and geophysical site characterization in El-Fayoum New City. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of El-Fayoum New City are addressed in three parts: in the first part, estimation of seismic hazard is done using seismotectonic and geological information. The second part deals with site characterization using geotechnical and shallow geophysical techniques. In the last part, local site effects are assessed by carrying out one-dimensional (1-D) ground response analysis using the equivalent linear method by program SHAKE 2000. Finally, microzonation maps have been prepared. The detailed methodology, along with experimental details, collected data, results and maps are presented in this paper.

Keywords: El-Fayoum, microzonation, seismotectonic, Egypt

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Authors: Nima Amani, Ali Salehi Dastjerdi, Fatemeh Ahmadi, Ardalan Sabamehr

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The cost overrun of the construction projects has always been one of the main problems of the construction companies caused by the risky nature of the construction projects. Therefore, today, the application of risk management is inevitable. Although in theory, the issue of risk management is divided into the opportunities and threats management, in practice, most of the projects have been focused on the threats management. However, considering the opportunities management and applying the opportunities-response strategies can lead to the improved profitability of the construction projects of the companies. In this paper, a new technique is developed to identify the opportunities in the construction projects using an improved protocol and propose the appropriate opportunities-response strategies to the construction companies to provide them with higher profitability. To evaluate the effectiveness of the protocol for selecting the most appropriate strategies in ‎response to the opportunities and threats, two projects from a construction company in Iran were ‎studied. Both projects selected were in mid-range in terms of size and similar in terms of time, ‎run time and costs. Finally, the output indicates that using the proposed opportunities-response strategies show that the company's profitability in the future can be increased approximately for similar projects.

Keywords: opportunities management, risk-response strategy, opportunity-response strategy, productivity, risk management

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Authors: Farhan Aljuaidi

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The rapid expansion of Alkarj city, Saudi Arabia, towards the outlet of Wadi AlAin is critical for the planners and decision makers. Nowadays, two major projects such as Salman bin Abdulaziz University compound and new industrial area are developed in this flood prone area where no channels are clear and identified. The main contribution of this study is to divert the flow away from these vital projects by reconstructing new channels. To do so, Lidar data were used to generate contour lines for the actual elevation of the highways and local roads. These data were analyzed and compared to the contour lines derived from the topographical maps 1:50.000. The magnitude of the expected flow was estimated using Snyder's Model based on the morphometric data acquired by DEM of the catchment area. The results indicate that maximum discharge peak reaches 2694,3 m3/sec, the mean is 303,7 m3/sec and the minimum is 74,3 m3/sec. The runoff was estimated at 252,2. 610 m3/s, the mean is 41,5. 610 m3/s and the minimum is 12,4. 610 m3/s.

Keywords: Desert flood, Saudi Arabia, Snyder's Model, flow estimation

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Authors: Mehrnoosh Mirzaei

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Children are among the most vulnerable at the occurrence of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Most of the management and measures which are considered for both before and during an earthquake are neither suitable nor efficient for this age group and cannot be applied. On the other hand, due to their age, it is hard to educate and train children to learn and understand the concept of earthquake risk mitigation as matters like earthquake prevention and safe places during an earthquake are not easily perceived. To our knowledge, children’s awareness of such concepts via their own world with the help of games is the best training method in this case. In this article, the researcher has tried to consider the child an active element before and during the earthquake. With training, provided by adults before the incidence of an earthquake, the child has the ability to learn disaster risk reduction (DRR). The focus of this research is on learning risk reduction behavior and regarding children as an individual element. The information of this article has been gathered from library resources, observations and the drawings of 10 children aged 5 whose subject was their conceptual definition of an earthquake who were asked to illustrate their conceptual definition of an earthquake; the results of 20 questionnaires filled in by preschoolers along with information gathered by interviewing them. The design of the suitable educational game, appropriate for the needs of this age group, has been made based on the theory of design with help of the user and the priority of children’s learning needs. The final result is a package of a game which is comprised of a learning table and matching cards showing sign marks for safe and unsafe places which introduce the safe behaviors and safe locations before and during the earthquake. These educational games can be used both in group contexts in kindergartens and on an individual basis at home, and they help in earthquake risk reduction.

Keywords: disaster education, earthquake sign marks, learning table, matching card, risk reduction behavior

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Authors: Kim Sang Hyuck, Y. Park Sung

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The outbreak of national disasters stimulates the decrease of the both internal and domestic tourism demands, causing bad effects on the hospitality industry. The effective and efficient risk management regarding national disasters are being increasingly required from the hospitality industry practitioners and the tourism policymakers. To establish the effective and efficient risk management strategy on national disasters, the most essential prerequisite condition is the correct estimation of national disasters’ effects in terms of the size and duration of the damages occurred from national disaster on hospitality industry. More specifically, the national disasters are twofold: natural disaster and social disaster. In addition, the hospitality industry has consisted of several types of business, such as hotel, restaurant, travel agency, etc. As reasons of the above, it is important to consider how each type of national disasters differently influences on the performance of each type of hospitality industry. Therefore, the purpose of this study is examining the effects of national disaster on hospitality industry in Korea based on the types of national disasters as well as the types of hospitality business. The monthly data was collected from Jan. 2000 to Dec. 2016. The indexes of industrial production for each hospitality industry in Korea were used with the proxy variable for the performance of each hospitality industry. Two national disaster variables (natural disaster and social disaster) were treated as dummy variables. In addition, the exchange rate, industrial production index, and consumer price index were used as control variables in the research model. The impulse response analysis was used to examine the size and duration of the damages occurred from each type of national disaster on each type of hospitality industries. The results of this study show that the natural disaster and the social disaster differently influenced on each type of hospitality industry. More specifically, the performance of airline industry is negatively influenced by the natural disaster at the time of 3 months later from the incidence. However, the negative impacts of social disaster on airline industry occurred not significantly over the time periods. For the hotel industry, both natural disaster and social disaster negatively influence the performance of hotel industry at the time of 5 months and 6 months later, respectively. Also, the negative impact of natural disaster on the performance of restaurant industry occurred at the time of 5 months later, as well as for both 3 months and 6 months later for the social disaster. Finally, both natural disaster and social disaster negatively influence the performance of travel agency at the time of 3 months and 4 months later, respectively. In conclusion, the types of national disasters differently influence the performance of each type of hospitality industry in Korea. These results would provide an important information to establish the effective and efficient risk management strategy for the national disasters.

Keywords: impulse response analysis, Korea, national disaster, performance of hospitality industry

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Authors: Liaqat Ali, Khalid Farooq, Shafieullah Khan, Nasir Orakzai, Qudratullah

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Objectives: To determine the risk factors for high resistance of ciprofloxacin in complicated urinary tract infections. Materials and Methods: It is an analytical study that was conducted in the department of Urology (Team ‘C’) at Institute of Kidney Diseases Hayatabad Peshawar from 1st June 2012 till 31st December 2012. Total numbers of 100 patients with complicated UTI was selected in the study. Multivariate analysis and linear regression were performed for the detection of risk factors. All the data was recorded on structured Proforma and was analyzed on SPSS version 17. Results: The mean age of the patient was 55.6 years (Range 3-82 years). 62 patients were male while 38 patients were female. 66 isolates of E-Coli were found sensitive to ciprofloxacin while 34 isolates were found Resistant for ciprofloxacin. Using multivariate analysis and linear regression, an increasing age above 50 (p=0.002) History of urinary catheterization especially for bladder outflow obstruction (p=0.001) and previous multiple use of ciprofloxacin (p=0.001) and poor brand of ciprofloxacin were found to be independent risk factors for high resistance of ciprofloxacin. Conclusion: UTI is common illness across the globe with increasing trend of antimicrobial resistance for ciprofloxacin against E Coli in complicated UTI. The risk factors for emerging resistance are increasing age, urinary catheterization and multiple use and poor brand of ciprofloxacin.

Keywords: urinary tract infection, ciprofloxacin, urethral catheterization, antimicrobial resistance

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Authors: Waleed El-Said Abou El-Amaiem

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Sole hemorrhages are considered as a main cause for sub clinical laminitis. In this study we aimed at discussing the most prominent risk factors associated with sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows. The final multivariate logistic regression model showed, a significant association between sub acute ruminal acidosis (P< 0.05), limb affected (P< 0.05) and weight (P< 0.05) and sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows. According to our knowledge, this is the first paper to discuss the risk factors associated with sole hemorrhages causing lameness in Egyptian water buffaloes and native breed cows.

Keywords: lameness, buffalo, sole hemorrhages, breed cows

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Authors: M. Fernanda Salgado, Alfonso Tierra, David S. Sandoval, Wilbert G. Aguilar

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Public transportation buses usually vary the speed depending on the places with the number of passengers. They require having efficient travel planning, a plan that will help them choose the fast route. Initially, an estimation tool is necessary to determine the travel time of each route, clearly establishing the possibilities. In this work, we give a practical solution that makes use of a concept that defines as areas of commercial incidence. These areas are based on the hypothesis that in the commercial places there is a greater flow of people and therefore the buses remain more time in the stops. The areas have one or more segments of routes, which have an incidence factor that allows to estimate the times. In addition, initial results are presented that verify the hypotheses and that promise adequately the travel times. In a future work, we take this approach to make an efficient travel planning system.

Keywords: commercial incidence, planning, public transport, speed travel, travel time

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Authors: Theresa Adderley

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Background: Aside from abstinence, correct and consistent use of latex condoms is the best known effective method to reduce HIV transmission among sexually active heterosexual individuals. When condoms are correctly used, the risk of HIV transmission is reduced by approximately 85%, relative to risk when not protected during sexual intercourse. The literature provides evidence that heterosexual young adults continue to be the group among whom STI rates are highest and the group that engages in more sexual risk-taking behaviors such as inconsistent or no condom usage. This study examines condom attitudes, condom use self-efficacy and their contributions to safer sex behaviors among heterosexual men living in The Bahamas. Methods: Guided by the Theory of Planned Behavior, and a convenience sample of 185 heterosexual males (Mage= 31.95, SD = 11.35), three standardized instruments were used to assess behaviors that may not only place heterosexual males at risk for HIV infection but also their female partners. Results: The results of this study suggest that condom attitudes, and condom use self-efficacy are important in explaining 24% variance in safer sex behaviors among Bahamian men. Income (β= -.15, p < .01; condom attitudes, (β= .36, p < .01), and condom use self-efficacy (β= .1, p < .01) were significantly associated with safer sex behaviors. Conclusion: Rather than focusing only on the use of safer sex behaviors, an effective HIV prevention strategy must consider condom attitudes and condom use self-efficacy as specific variables that may contribute to perpetuating the transmission of HIV.

Keywords: condom attitudes, safer sex behaviors, HIV, condom self-efficacy

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Authors: Ghulam Haider Haidaree, Nsenda Lukumwena

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Most developing nations face energy production and supply problems. This is also the case of Afghanistan whose generating capacity does not meet its energy demand. This is due in part to high security and risk caused by war which deters foreign investments and insufficient internal revenue. To address the issue above, this paper would like to suggest an alternative and affordable way to deal with the energy problem. That is by converting Solid Waste to energy. As a result, this approach tackles the municipal solid waste issue (potential cause of several diseases), contributes to the improvement of the quality of life, local economy, and so on. While addressing the solid waste problem in general, this paper samples specifically one municipality which is District-12, one of the 22 districts of Kabul city. Using geographic information system (GIS) technology, District-12 is divided into nine different zones whose municipal solid waste is respectively collected, processed, and converted into electricity and distributed to the closest area. It is important to mention that GIS has been used to estimate the amount of electricity to be distributed and to optimally position the production plant.

Keywords: energy problem, estimation of electricity, GIS zones, solid waste management system

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Authors: Lorifel Hinay

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Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity in the Philippines over the years resulting to detrimental impacts in school properties and lives of learners. The topography of the Province of Southern Leyte is a hotspot for inevitable natural disaster-causing hazards that could affect schools, cripple the educational system and cause environmental, cultural and social detrimental impacts making Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) an indispensable platform to keep learners safe, secure and resilient. This study determined the schools’ vulnerability and risk assessment to earthquake, landslide, flood, storm surge and tsunami hazards, and its relationship to status in disaster preparedness. Descriptive-correlational research design was used where the respondents were School DRRM Coordinators/School Administrators and Municipal DRRM Officers. It was found that schools’ vulnerability and risk were high in landslide, medium in earthquake, and low in flood, storm surge and tsunami. Though schools were moderately prepared in disasters across all hazards, they were less accomplished in group organization and property security. Less planning preparation and less implementation of DRRM measures were observed in schools highly at risk of earthquake and landslide. Also, schools vulnerable to landslide and flood have very high property security. Topography and location greatly contributed to schools’ vulnerability to hazards, thus, a school-based disaster preparedness plan is hoped to help ensure that hazard-exposed schools can build a culture of safety, disaster resiliency and education continuity.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction and management, earthquake, flood, landslide, storm surge, tsunami

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Authors: Redie Kidane Ghebrehawariat, Betiel Habte Hadgu, Filmon Berhane Kahsay, Rim Berhane Fisehaye, Samuel Haile Kahsay, Saron Yemane Yosief, Selemawit Mosazghi Gilazghi

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A cross-sectional study was conducted from 22 February to 9 April 2022 on small, medium, and large holder dairy farms to determine the bovine mastitis prevalence and associated risk factors in the Anseba region, Eritrea. A total of 34 dairy farms and 193 dairy cows were randomly selected. Dairy cows were physically examined for any change on the udder and milk; a California mastitis test was performed to check sub-clinical mastitis; a closed-ended semi-structured questionnaire composed of 28 variables/risk factors (21 management risk factors and 7 animal-level risk factors) was used to determine the risk factors responsible for clinical and sub-clinical mastitis in the dairy cows. The overall cow-level prevalence of mastitis was 147 (76.2%). The animal level prevalence rate of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis was found to be 22 (11.4%) and 125 (64.8%), respectively, while herd level prevalence both for clinical and subclinical mastitis was found to be 14 (41.2%) and 26 (76.5%) respectively. Based on the already set P-value, which is <0.05, a number of risk factors were found to have a significant relationship with the occurrence of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis. Generally, animal risk factors such as animal age, parity, injury on the udder or teat, and previous history of mastitis presence of injury on the udder and lactation stage were risk factors with a significant relationship with the occurrence of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis. On the other hand, management risk factors with a significant relationship to the occurrence of clinical and sub-clinical mastitis were herd size, failure to milk mastitic cow, at last, educational level, floor type, failure to use a towel, using one towel for more than one cow and failure to practice mastitis test. From a total of 772 quarters, 280 (36.3%) were found positive for sub-clinical mastitis using the California mastitis test; of these, 70 (9%) were weakly positive, 90 (11.7%) were distinct positive, and 120 (15.5%) were strongly positive. Furthermore, 13 (1.7%) quarters were blocked. Quarter level prevalence was right front 80 (41.5%), left front 64 (33.3%), right hind 69 (35.8%) and left hind 67 (34.7%). The study has shown that mastitis is a major problem for dairy farms and the findings suggested that mastitis is one of the limiting factors in increasing milk production. Subclinical mastitis was found to be a devastating problem, and it occurred in all three breeds of lactating dairy cattle. Therefore, farmers should work hard to avoid the above-mentioned risk factors to minimize the infection of their dairy cattle by mastitis and thereby increase their profit. On the other hand, the Ministry of Agriculture, through the extension unit, should work in close contact with the farmers to increase awareness of the economic importance of the disease and associated risk factors.

Keywords: mastitis, prevalence, dairy cattle, Anseba, Eritrea

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Alsaidi M. Altaher, Mohd Tahir Ismail

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Wavelet thresholding has been a power tool in curve estimation and data analysis. In the presence of outliers this non parametric estimator can not suppress the outliers involved. This study proposes a new two-stage combined method based on the use of the median filter as primary step before applying wavelet thresholding. After suppressing the outliers in a signal through the median filter, the classical wavelet thresholding is then applied for removing the remaining noise. We use automatic boundary corrections; using a low order polynomial model or local polynomial model as a more realistic rule to correct the bias at the boundary region; instead of using the classical assumptions such periodic or symmetric. A simulation experiment has been conducted to evaluate the numerical performance of the proposed method. Results show strong evidences that the proposed method is extremely effective in terms of correcting the boundary bias and eliminating outlier’s sensitivity.

Keywords: boundary correction, median filter, simulation, wavelet thresholding

Procedia PDF Downloads 427

Authors: Santosh Sharma

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Background: Drug abuse, needle sharing, and risky sexual behaviour are often compounded to increase the risk of HIV transmission. Injecting Drug Users are at the duel risk of needle sharing and risky sexual Behaviour, becoming more vulnerable to STI and HIV. Thus, studying the interface of injecting drug use and risky sexual behaviour is important to curb the pace of HIV epidemic among IDUs. The aim of this study is to determine the factor associated with HIV among injecting drug users in three states of India. Materials and methods: This paper analyzes covariates of multiplicity of risk behavior among injecting drug users. Findings are based on data from Integrated Behavioral and Biological Assessment (IBBA) round 2, 2010. IBBA collects the information of IDUs from the six districts. IDUs were selected on the criteria of those who were 18 years or older, who injected addictive substances/drugs for non-medical purposes at least once in past six month. A total of 1,979 in round 2 were interviewed in the IBBA. The study employs quantitative techniques using standard statistical tools to achieve the above objectives. All results presented in this paper are unweighted univariate measures. Results: Among IDUs, average duration of injecting drugs is 5.2 years. Mean duration between first drug use to first injecting drugs among younger IDUs, belongs to 18-24 years is 2.6 years Needle cleaning practices is common with above two-fifths reporting its every time cleaning. Needle sharing is quite prevalent especially among younger IDUs. Further, IDUs practicing needle sharing exhibit pervasive multi-partner behavior. Condom use with commercial partners is almost 81 %, whereas with intimate partner it is 39 %. Coexistence of needle sharing and unprotected sex enhances STI prevalence (6.8 %), which is further pronounced among divorced/separated/widowed (9.4 %). Conclusion: Working towards risk reduction for IDUs must deal with multiplicity of risk. Interventions should deal with covariates of risk, addressing youth, and risky sexual behavior.

Keywords: IDUs, HIV, STI, behaviour

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar

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Clean development mechanism (CDM) can act as an effective instrument for mitigating climate change. This mechanism can effectively reduce the emission of CO2 and other green house gases (GHG). Construction of a mega infrastructure project like underground corridor construction for metro rail operation involves in consumption of substantial quantity of concrete which consumes huge quantity of energy consuming materials like cement and steel. This paper is an attempt to develop an integrated clean development mechanism and risk management approach for sustainable development for an underground corridor metro rail project in India during its construction phase. It was observed that about 35% reduction in CO2 emission can be obtained by adding fly ash as a part replacement of cement. The reduced emission quantity of CO2 which is of the quantum of about 21,646.36 MT would result in cost savings of approximately INR 8.5 million (USD 1,29,878).But construction and operation of such infrastructure projects of the present era are subject to huge risks and uncertainties throughout all the phases of the project, thus reducing the probability of successful completion of the project within stipulated time and cost frame. Thus, an integrated approach of combining CDM with risk management would enable the metro rail authorities to develop a sustainable risk mitigation measure framework to ensure more cost and energy savings and lesser time and cost over-run.

Keywords: clean development mechanism (CDM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail

Procedia PDF Downloads 473