Search results for: game outcome prediction

Authors: Alan Wan

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In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

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Authors: N. Bolong, J. Makinda, I. Saad

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Laboratory activities have produced benefits in student learning. With current drives of new technology resources and evolving era of education methods, renewal status of learning and teaching in laboratory methods are in progress, for both learners and the educators. To enhance learning outcomes in laboratory works particularly in engineering practices and testing, learning via hands-on by instruction may not sufficient. This paper describes and compares techniques and implementation of traditional (expository) with open-ended laboratory (problem-based) for two consecutive cohorts studying environmental laboratory course in civil engineering program. The transition of traditional to problem-based findings and effect were investigated in terms of course assessment student feedback survey, course outcome learning measurement and student performance grades. It was proved that students have demonstrated better performance in their grades and 12% increase in the course outcome (CO) in problem-based open-ended laboratory style than traditional method; although in perception, students has responded less favorable in their feedback.

Keywords: engineering education, open-ended laboratory, environmental engineering lab

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Authors: Hyon I. Paek, Sang Rim Kim, Hyon A. Ryu

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In functional linear regression, one typical problem is to reduce dimension. Compared with multivariate linear regression, functional linear regression is regarded as an infinite-dimensional case, and the main task is to reduce dimensions of functional response and functional predictors. One common approach is to adapt functional principal component analysis (FPCA) on functional predictors and then use a few leading functional principal components (FPC) to predict the functional model. The leading FPCs estimated by the typical FPCA explain a major variation of the functional predictor, but these leading FPCs may not be mostly correlated with the functional response, so they may not be significant in the prediction for response. In this paper, we propose a supervised functional principal component analysis method for a functional response model with FPCs obtained by considering the correlation of the functional response. Our method would have a better prediction accuracy than the typical FPCA method.

Keywords: supervised, functional principal component analysis, functional response, functional linear regression

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Authors: Yilei Song, Linlin Tian, Ning Zhao

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Turbulence energetics and structures in the wake of large-scale wind turbines under the stably-stratified atmospheric boundary layer (SABL) can be complicated due to the presence of low-level jets (LLJs), a region of higher wind speeds than the geostrophic wind speed. With a modified one-k-equation, eddy viscosity model specified for atmospheric flows as the sub-grid scale (SGS) model, a realistic atmospheric state of the stable ABL is well reproduced by large-eddy simulation (LES) techniques. Corresponding to the precursor stably stratification, the detailed wake properties of a standard 5-MW wind turbine represented as an actuator line model are provided. An engineering model is proposed for wake prediction based on the simulation statistics and gets validated. Results confirm that the proposed wake model can provide good predictions for wind turbines under the SABL.

Keywords: large-eddy simulation, stably-stratified atmospheric boundary layer, wake model, wind turbine wake

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Authors: Inje Cho

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The leading health risks threatening the world today are associated with a modern lifestyle characterized by sedentary behavior, stress, anxiety, and an obesogenic food environment. To counter this alarming trend, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have proffered Physical Activity guidelines to bolster physical engagement. Concurrently, the burgeon of smartphones and mobile applications has witnessed a proliferation of fitness applications aimed at invigorating exercise adherence and real-time activity monitoring. Grounded in the Uses and gratification theory, this study delves into the technological affordances of mobile fitness applications, discerning the mediating influences of escapism and social outcome expectations on attitudes and exercise intention. The theory explains how individuals employ distinct communication mediums to satiate their exigencies and desires. Technological affordances manifest as attributes of emerging technologies that galvanize personal engagement in physical activities. Several features of mobile fitness applications include affordances for goal setting, virtual rewards, peer support, and exercise information. Escapism, denoting the inclination to disengage from normal routines, has emerged as a salient motivator for the consumption of new media. This study postulates that individual’s perceptions technological affordances within mobile fitness applications, can affect escapism and social outcome expectations, potentially influencing attitude, and behavior formation. Thus, the integrated model has been developed to empirically examine the interrelationships between technological affordances, escapism, social outcome expectations, and exercise intention. Structural Equation Modelling serves as the methodological tool, and a cohort of 400 Fitbit users shall be enlisted from the Prolific, data collection platform. A sequence of multivariate data analyses will scrutinize both the measurement and hypothesized structural models. By delving into the effects of mobile fitness applications, this study contributes to the growing of new media studies in sport management. Moreover, the novel integration of the uses and gratification theory, technological affordances, via the prism of escapism, illustrates the dynamics that underlies mobile fitness user’s attitudes and behavioral intentions. Therefore, the findings from this study contribute to theoretical understanding and provide pragmatic insights to developers and practitioners in optimizing the impact of mobile fitness applications.

Keywords: technological affordances, uses and gratification, mobile fitness apps, escapism, physical activity

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Authors: Vasilis C. Hristidis, Ricardo Caceda, Ji Soo Kim, Brian Bronson, Emily A. Hill

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Objective: Leave passes to provide authorized leave for hospitalized patients from a psychiatric inpatient unit. Though providing day passes was once a relatively common practice, there is relatively little data describing their safety and efficacy. Methods: This descriptive study examines the use of leave passes in an adult inpatient unit at a university hospital between 2017 and 2021, with attention to reasons for granting the day pass, duration, and outcome of the pass. Results: During the study period, ten patients with primary psychotic or mood disorders received 12 passes for either housing coordination, COVID-19 vaccination, or major family events. There were no fatalities or elopements. One patient experienced severe agitation and engaged in non-suicidal self-injurious behavior. A second patient showed mild, redirectable psychomotor agitation upon return to the unit. The remaining 10 passes were uneventful. Conclusions: Our findings support the view that patients with diverse diagnoses can safely be provided leave from an inpatient setting with adequate planning and support, yielding a low incidence of adverse events.

Keywords: passes, inpatient, psychiatry, inpatient leave, outcome

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Authors: Vijay Pal Singh, Yogesh Chandra Kotiyal

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Structures are a combination of various load carrying members which transfer the loads to the foundation from the superstructure safely. At the design stage, the loading of the structure is defined and appropriate material choices are made based upon their properties, mainly related to strength. The strength of materials kept on reducing with time because of many factors like environmental exposure and deformation caused by unpredictable external loads. Hence, to predict the strength of materials used in structures, various techniques are used. Among these techniques, Non-Destructive Techniques (NDT) are the one that can be used to predict the strength without damaging the structure. In the present study, the compressive strength of concrete has been predicted using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The predicted strength was compared with the experimentally obtained actual compressive strength of concrete and equations were developed for different models. A good co-relation has been obtained between the predicted strength by these models and experimental values. Further, the co-relation has been developed using two NDT techniques for prediction of strength by regression analysis. It was found that the percentage error has been reduced between the predicted strength by using combined techniques in place of single techniques.

Keywords: rebound, ultra-sonic pulse, penetration, ANN, NDT, regression

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Authors: Nane Giloyan

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The rapid development of social networks in the 21st century increases the interests towards the role and impact of social media on the success or failure of a revolution. Even though studies are investigating the role of social media on the outcome of a revolution, still, the conclusions on this matter are ambiguous so far. Hence, this research aims to investigate the role of social media in the success or failure of a revolution and make a contribution to the literature gap. The study aims to examine the research question whether the use of social media explains the success or failure of revolutions in 2008 and 2018 in Armenia. The research question is investigated through content analysis of two cases; failed revolution in 2008 and the successful revolution in 2018 in Armenia. The secondary data analysis was based on information devoted to two revolutions using local and major international news articles, journal and critical articles, in Armenian, Russian and English, also videos, posts and live streams of the revolutionary leaders. There can be many factors explaining the success or failure of a revolution. However, the investigation of the factors and their role to explain the outcome of a revolution other than the use of social media is beyond the scope of this research study. The study holds other variables constant and concludes that in the cases of 2008 and 2018 revolutions in Armenia the mobilization of society through social media explains the differences in the outcomes (failed or successful). The comparative case study of the revolutions in 2008 and 2018 in Armenia emphasizes the important role and impact of the use of social media on the success or failure of a revolution. The results highlight that the use of the Internet, particularly social media and live streams, by the opposition was the essential difference between two revolutions. Social media platforms, live streams, and communication apps that were absent in the revolutionary situation in 2008 were fundamental to the Armenian Velvet Revolution in 2018. The changes in the situation in favor of the opposition, so the outcome of the protests, were mainly based on the Internet-based mobilization of the society. It is also important to take into consideration that the country experienced a great increase in penetration rates over the decade. The percentage of access to the Internet drastically increased between 2008 and 2018. This fact may help to have a clearer understanding of the use of the Internet and social media by the opposition and the reliance on social media by society. According to the results of the continent analysis, the use of social media to direct the protests and to mobilize the society, have a vital role and positive impact on the outcome of a revolution. Thus the study concludes that it is the use of social media to initiate, organize, and direct the protests that explain the success or failure of two Armenian revolutions.

Keywords: social media, revolution, Armenia, success, failure

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Authors: K. Tejasri, K. Suvarna Vani, S. Prathyusha, S. Ramya

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Proteins are chained sequences of amino acids which are brought together by the peptide bonds. Many varying formations of the chains are possible due to multiple combinations of amino acids and rotation in numerous positions along the chain. Protein structure prediction is one of the crucial goals worked towards by the members of bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry backgrounds. Among the four different structure levels in proteins, we emphasize mainly the secondary level structure. Generally, the secondary protein basically comprises alpha-helix and beta-sheets. Multi-class classification problem of data with disparity is truly a challenge to overcome and has to be addressed for the beta strands. Imbalanced data distribution constitutes a couple of the classes of data having very limited training samples collated with other classes. The secondary structure data is extracted from the protein primary sequence, and the beta-strands are predicted using suitable machine learning algorithms.

Keywords: proteins, secondary structure elements, beta-sheets, beta-strands, alpha-helices, machine learning algorithms

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Authors: Messis A., Adjebli A., Ayeche R., Talbi M., Tighilet K., Louardiane M.

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Cancers are the second cause of death worldwide. Prevalence and incidence of cancers is getting increased by aging and population growth. This study aims to predict and modeling the evolution of breast, Colorectal, Lung, Bladder and Prostate cancers over the period of 2014-2019. In this study, data were analyzed using time series analysis with double exponential smoothing method to forecast the future pattern. To describe and fit the appropriate models, Minitab statistical software version 17 was used. Between 2014 and 2019, the overall trend in the raw number of new cancer cases registered has been increasing over time; the change in observations over time has been increasing. Our forecast model is validated since we have good prediction for the period 2020 and data not available for 2021 and 2022. Time series analysis showed that the double exponential smoothing is an efficient tool to model the future data on the raw number of new cancer cases.

Keywords: cancer, time series, prediction, double exponential smoothing

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Authors: Wayne DeFehr

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This study is rooted in a pedagogical approach that emphasizes student engagement as fundamental to meaningful learning in the classroom. This approach creates a paradigmatic shift, from a teaching practice that reinforces the teacher’s central authority to a practice that disperses that authority among the students in the classroom through networks that they themselves develop. The methodology of this study about creating optimal conditions for learning in the classroom includes providing a conceptual framework within which the students work, as well as providing clearly stated expectations for work standards, content quality, group methodology, and learning outcomes. These learning conditions are nurtured in a variety of ways. First, nearly every class includes a lecture from the professor with key concepts that students need in order to complete their work successfully. Secondly, students build on this scholarly material by forming their own networks, where students face each other and engage with each other in order to collaborate their way to solving a particular problem relating to the course content. Thirdly, students are given short, medium, and long-term goals. Short term goals relate to the week’s topic and involve workshopping particular issues relating to that stage of the course. The medium-term goals involve students submitting term assignments that are evaluated according to a well-defined rubric. And finally, long-term goals are achieved by creating a capstone project, which is celebrated and shared with classmates and interested friends on the final day of the course. The essential conclusions of the study are drawn from courses that focus on video game narrative. Enthusiastic student engagement is created not only with the dynamic energy and expertise of the instructor, but also with the inter-dependence of the students on each other to build knowledge, acquire skills, and achieve successful results.

Keywords: collaboration, education, learning networks, video games

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Authors: Mohammad Karam, Abdulmalik Alsaif, Abdulrahman Al-Naseem, Amrit Hayre, Abdurrahman Al Jabbouri, Ahmad Aldubaikhi, Narvair Kahlar, Salem Al-Mutairi

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Purpose: To compare the outcomes of mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) versus methotrexate (MTX) in non-infectious ocular inflammatory disease (NIOID). Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed as per the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) Guidelines and an electronic search was conducted to identify all comparative studies of MMF versus MTX in NIOID. Treatment results and side effects were primary outcome measures. Secondary outcome measures included visual acuity and resolution of macular oedema. Fixed and random-effects models were used for the analysis. Results: Four studies enrolling 905 patients were identified. There was no significant difference between MMF and MTX groups in overall treatment success (Odds Ratio [OR] = 0.97, P = 0.96) and failure (OR = 0.86, P = 0.85) of NIOID. Although treatment success of uveitis showed no significant difference for anterior and intermediate uveitis cases (OR = 2.33, P = 0.14), MTX showed a significantly improved effect in cases involving posterior uveitis and panuveitis (OR = 0.41, P = 0.003). However, the median dose required for treatment success was lower for MTX whereas MMF was associated with a faster median time to treatment success. Further to this, MMF showed a reduced rate of side effects when compared to MTX, but MTX failed to reach statistical significance, most notably for liver enzyme elevation (OR = 0.65, P = 0.16), fatigue (OR = 0.84, P = 0.49) and headache (OR = 0.81, P = 0.37). For secondary outcomes, no significant difference was noted in visual acuity and resolution of macular edema. Conclusions: MMF is comparable to MTX in the treatment of NIOID as there was no significant difference in the outcome of treatment success and side effect profiles.

Keywords: Mycophenolate mofetil, methotrexate, non-infectious ocular inflammation, uveitis, scleritis

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Authors: Zachary Blanks, Solomon Sonya

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Poaching presents a serious threat to endangered animal species, environment conservations, and human life. Additionally, some poaching activity has even been linked to supplying funds to support terrorist networks elsewhere around the world. Consequently, agencies dedicated to protecting wildlife habitats have a near intractable task of adequately patrolling an entire area (spanning several thousand kilometers) given limited resources, funds, and personnel at their disposal. Thus, agencies need predictive tools that are both high-performing and easily implementable by the user to help in learning how the significant features (e.g. animal population densities, topography, behavior patterns of the criminals within the area, etc) interact with each other in hopes of abating poaching. This research develops a classification model using machine learning algorithms to aid in forecasting future attacks that is both easy to train and performs well when compared to other models. In this research, we demonstrate how data imputation methods (specifically predictive mean matching, gradient boosting, and random forest multiple imputation) can be applied to analyze data and create significant predictions across a varied data set. Specifically, we apply these methods to improve the accuracy of adopted prediction models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, etc). Finally, we assess the performance of the model and the accuracy of our data imputation methods by learning on a real-world data set constituting four years of imputed data and testing on one year of non-imputed data. This paper provides three main contributions. First, we extend work done by the Teamcore and CREATE (Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events) research group at the University of Southern California (USC) working in conjunction with the Department of Homeland Security to apply game theory and machine learning algorithms to develop more efficient ways of reducing poaching. This research introduces ensemble methods (Random Forests and Stochastic Gradient Boosting) and applies it to real-world poaching data gathered from the Ugandan rain forest park rangers. Next, we consider the effect of data imputation on both the performance of various algorithms and the general accuracy of the method itself when applied to a dependent variable where a large number of observations are missing. Third, we provide an alternate approach to predict the probability of observing poaching both by season and by month. The results from this research are very promising. We conclude that by using Stochastic Gradient Boosting to predict observations for non-commercial poaching by season, we are able to produce statistically equivalent results while being orders of magnitude faster in computation time and complexity. Additionally, when predicting potential poaching incidents by individual month vice entire seasons, boosting techniques produce a mean area under the curve increase of approximately 3% relative to previous prediction schedules by entire seasons.

Keywords: ensemble methods, imputation, machine learning, random forests, statistical analysis, stochastic gradient boosting, wildlife protection

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Authors: Patricia M. Boechler, Heather M. Gautreau

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In this research study, postsecondary students completed an information learning task in an avatar-based 3D virtual learning environment. Three factors were of interest in relation to learning; 1) the influence of collaborative vs. independent conditions, 2) the influence of the spatial arrangement of the virtual environment (linear, random and clustered), and 3) the relationship of individual differences such as spatial skill, general computer experience and video game experience to learning. Students completed pretest measures of prior computer experience and prior spatial skill. Following the premeasure administration, students were given instruction to move through the virtual environment and study all the material within 10 information stations. In the collaborative condition, students proceeded in randomly assigned pairs, while in the independent condition they proceeded alone. After this learning phase, all students individually completed a multiple choice test to determine information retention. The overall results indicated that students in pairs did not perform any better or worse than independent students. As far as individual differences, only spatial ability predicted the performance of students. General computer experience and video game experience did not. Taking a closer look at the pairs and spatial ability, comparisons were made on pairs high/matched spatial ability, pairs low/matched spatial ability and pairs that were mismatched on spatial ability. The results showed that both high/matched pairs and mismatched pairs outperformed low/matched pairs. That is, if a pair had even one individual with strong spatial ability they would perform better than pairs with only low spatial ability individuals. This suggests that, in virtual environments, the specific individuals that are paired together are important for performance outcomes. The paper also includes a discussion of trends within the data that have implications for virtual environment education.

Keywords: avatar-based, virtual environment, paired learning, individual differences

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Authors: Agustyas Tjiptaningrum, Intanri Kurniati, Fadilah Fadilah, Linda Erlina, Tiwuk Susantiningsih

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Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) is still one of the health problems. It can be a severe condition that is caused by a cytokine storm. In a cytokine storm, several proinflammatory cytokines are released massively. It destroys epithelial cells, and subsequently, it can cause death. The anti-inflammatory agent can be used to decrease the number of severe Covid-19 conditions. Melaleuca cajuputi is a plant that has antiviral, antibiotic, antioxidant, and anti-inflammatory activities. This study was carried out to analyze the prediction mechanism of the M. cajuputi extract from Lampung, Indonesia, as an anti-inflammatory agent for COVID-19. This study constructed a database of protein host target that was involved in the inflammation process of COVID-19 using data retrieval from GeneCards with the keyword “SARS-CoV2”, “inflammation,” “cytokine storm,” and “acute respiratory distress syndrome.” Subsequent protein-protein interaction was generated by using Cytoscape version 3.9.1. It can predict the significant target protein. Then the analysis of the Gene Ontology (GO) and KEGG pathways was conducted to generate the genes and components that play a role in COVID-19. The result of this study was 30 nodes representing significant proteins, namely NF-κβ, IL-6, IL-6R, IL-2RA, IL-2, IFN2, C3, TRAF6, IFNAR1, and DOX58. From the KEGG pathway, we obtained the result that NF-κβ has a role in the production of proinflammatory cytokines, which play a role in the COVID-19 cytokine storm. It is an important factor for macrophage transcription; therefore, it will induce inflammatory gene expression that encodes proinflammatory cytokines such as IL-6, TNF-α, and IL-1β. In conclusion, the blocking of NF-κβ is the prediction mechanism of the M. cajuputi extract as an anti-inflammation agent for COVID-19.

Keywords: antiinflammation, COVID-19, cytokine storm, NF-κβ, M. cajuputi

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Authors: Mohamed Boubekri, Jaewook Lee

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The assessment of the daylighting performance of a design solution is a complex task due to the changing nature of daylight. A few quantitative metrics are available to designers to assess such a performance, among them are the mean hourly illuminance (MHI), the daylight factor (DF), the daylight autonomy (DA) and the useful daylight illuminance (UDI). Each of these metrics has criteria and limitations that affect the outcome of the evaluation. When to use one metric instead of another depends largely on the design goals to be achieved. Using Design Iterate Validate Adapt (DIVA) daylighting simulation program we set out to examine the performance behavior of these four metrics with the changing dimensions of three shading devices: a horizontal overhang, a horizontal louver system, and a vertical louver system, and compare their performance behavior as the orientation of the window changes. The context is a classroom of a prototypical elementary school in South Korea. Our results indicate that not all four metrics behave similarly as we vary the size of each shading device and as orientations changes. The UDI is the metric that leads to outcome most different than the other three metrics. Our conclusion is that not all daylighting metrics lead to the same conclusions and that it is important to use the metric that corresponds to the specific goals and objectives of the daylighting solution.

Keywords: daylight factor, hourly daylight illuminance, daylight autonomy, useful daylight illuminance

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Authors: Antonio Monteiro, Jorge Azevedo, Severiano Silva, Alfredo Teixeira

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The objective of this study was to compare the carcass and in vivo real-time ultrasound measurements (RTU) and their capacity to predict the composition of Serrana goats up to 40% of maturity. Twenty one females (11.1 ± 3.97 kg) and Twenty one males (15.6 ± 5.38 kg) were utilized to made in vivo measurements with a 5 MHz probe (ALOKA 500V scanner) at the 9th-10th, 10th-11th thoracic vertebrae (uT910 and uT1011, respectively), at the 1st- 2nd, 3rd-4th, and 4th-5th lumbar vertebrae (uL12, ul34 and uL45, respectively) and also at the 3rd-4th sternebrae (EEST). It was recorded the images of RTU measurements of Longissimus thoracis et lumborum muscle (LTL) depth (EM), width (LM), perimeter (PM), area (AM) and subcutaneous fat thickness (SFD) above the LTL, as well as the depth of tissues of the sternum (EEST) between the 3rd-4th sternebrae. All RTU images were analyzed using the ImageJ software. After slaughter, the carcasses were stored at 4 ºC for 24 h. After this period the carcasses were divided and the left half was entirely dissected into muscle, dissected fat (subcutaneous fat plus intermuscular fat) and bone. Prior to the dissection measurements equivalent to those obtained in vivo with RTU were recorded. Using the Statistica 5, correlation and regression analyses were performed. The prediction of carcass composition was achieved by stepwise regression procedure, with live weight and RTU measurements with and without transformation of variables to the same dimension. The RTU and carcass measurements, except for SFD measurements, showed high correlation (r > 0.60, P < 0.001). The RTU measurements and the live weight, showed ability to predict carcass composition on muscle (R2 = 0.99, P < 0.001), subcutaneous fat (R2 = 0.41, P < 0.001), intermuscular fat (R2 = 0.84, P < 0.001), dissected fat (R2 = 0.71, P < 0.001) and bone (R2 = 0.94, P < 0.001). The transformation of variables allowed a slight increase of precision, but with the increase in the number of variables, with the exception of subcutaneous fat prediction. In vivo measurements by RTU can be applied to predict kid goat carcass composition, from 5 measurements of RTU and the live weight.

Keywords: carcass, goats, real time, ultrasound

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Authors: I. Alhajri, G. Zahedi, R. Alazmi, A. Akbari

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In this paper, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was developed to predict Asphaltene Precipitation (AP) during the injection of carbon dioxide into crude oil reservoirs. In this study, the experimental data from six different oil fields were collected. Seventy percent of the data was used to develop the ANN model, and different ANN architectures were examined. A network with the Trainlm training algorithm was found to be the best network to estimate the AP. To check the validity of the proposed model, the model was used to predict the AP for the thirty percent of the data that was unevaluated. The Mean Square Error (MSE) of the prediction was 0.0018, which confirms the excellent prediction capability of the proposed model. In the second part of this study, the ANN model predictions were compared with modified Hirschberg model predictions. The ANN was found to provide more accurate estimates compared to the modified Hirschberg model. Finally, the proposed model was employed to examine the effect of different operating parameters during gas injection on the AP. It was found that the AP is mostly sensitive to the reservoir temperature. Furthermore, the carbon dioxide concentration in liquid phase increases the AP.

Keywords: artificial neural network, asphaltene, CO2 injection, Hirschberg model, oil reservoirs

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Authors: Kazeem K. Adewole

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This paper presents the finite element analysis numerical investigation of the effects of the location of across-the-width lamination on the tensile properties of rectangular wires for civil engineering applications. FE analysis revealed that the presence of the mid-thickness across-the-width lamination changes the cup and cone fracture shape exhibited by the lamination-free wire to a V-shaped fracture shape with an opening at the bottom/pointed end of the V-shape at the location of the mid-thickness across-the-width lamination. FE analysis also revealed that the presence of the mid-width across-the-thickness lamination changes the cup and cone fracture shape of the lamination-free wire without an opening to a cup and cone fracture shape with an opening at the location of the mid-width across-the-thickness lamination. The FE fracture behaviour prediction approach presented in this work serves as a tool for failure analysis of wires with lamination at different orientations which cannot be conducted experimentally.

Keywords: across-the-width lamination, tensile properties, lamination location, wire

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Authors: Ilham Akbar Rahman, Aflah Dhea Bariz Yasta, Iin Fadhilah Utami Tamasse, Devina Juanita

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Meningioma is adult brain tumors originating from the meninges covering the brain and spinal cord. The females have approximately twice higher 2:1 than male in the incidence of meningioma. This study aimed to analyze the histopathological grading and clinical aspect in predicting the prognosis of meningioma patients. An observational study with cross sectional design was used on 53 meningioma patients treated at Dr. Wahidin Sudirohusodo hospital in 2016. The data then were analyzed using SPSS 20.0. Of 53 patients, mostly 41 (77,4%) were female and 12 (22,6%) were male. The distribution of histopathology patients showed the meningothelial meningioma of 18 (43,9%) as the most type found. Fibroplastic meningioma were 8 (19,5%), while atypical meningioma and psammomatous meningioma were 6 (14,6%) each. The rest were malignant meningioma and angiomatous meningioma which found in respectively 2 (4,9%) and 1 (2,4%). Our result found significant finding that mostly male were fibroblastic meningioma (50%), however meningothelial meningioma were found in the majority of female (54,8%) and also seizure comprised only in higher grade meningioma. On the outcome of meningioma patient treated operatively, histopathological grade remained insignificant (p > 0,05). This study can be used as prognostic value of meningioma patients based on gender, histopathological grade, and clinical manifestation. Overall, the outcome of the meningioma’s patients is good and promising as long as it is well managed.

Keywords: meningioma, prognostic value, histopathological grading, clinical manifestation

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Authors: Kanchan Mondal, Dasharath Koulage, Dattatray Manerikar, Asmita Ghate

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This paper presents an additive reliability model using warranty data and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) data. Warranty data for any product gives insight to its underlying issues. This is often used by Reliability Engineers to build prediction model to forecast failure rate of parts. But there is one major limitation in using warranty data for prediction. Warranty periods constitute only a small fraction of total lifetime of a product, most of the time it covers only the infant mortality and useful life zone of a bathtub curve. Predicting with warranty data alone in these cases is not generally provide results with desired accuracy. Failure rate of a mechanical part is driven by random issues initially and wear-out or usage related issues at later stages of the lifetime. For better predictability of failure rate, one need to explore the failure rate behavior at wear out zone of a bathtub curve. Due to cost and time constraints, it is not always possible to test samples till failure, but FEA-Fatigue analysis can provide the failure rate behavior of a part much beyond warranty period in a quicker time and at lesser cost. In this work, the authors proposed an Additive Weibull Model, which make use of both warranty and FEA fatigue analysis data for predicting failure rates. It involves modeling of two data sets of a part, one with existing warranty claims and other with fatigue life data. Hazard rate base Weibull estimation has been used for the modeling the warranty data whereas S-N curved based Weibull parameter estimation is used for FEA data. Two separate Weibull models’ parameters are estimated and combined to form the proposed Additive Weibull Model for prediction.

Keywords: bathtub curve, fatigue, FEA, reliability, warranty, Weibull

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Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

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Digitalisation in production technology is a driver for the application of machine learning methods. Through the application of predictive quality, the great potential for saving necessary quality control can be exploited through the data-based prediction of product quality and states. However, the serial use of machine learning applications is often prevented by various problems. Fluctuations occur in real production data sets, which are reflected in trends and systematic shifts over time. To counteract these problems, data preprocessing includes rule-based data cleaning, the application of dimensionality reduction techniques, and the identification of comparable data subsets to extract stable features. Successful process control of the target variables aims to centre the measured values around a mean and minimise variance. Competitive leaders claim to have mastered their processes. As a result, much of the real data has a relatively low variance. For the training of prediction models, the highest possible generalisability is required, which is at least made more difficult by this data availability. The implementation of a machine learning application can be interpreted as a production process. The CRoss Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) is a process model with six phases that describes the life cycle of data science. As in any process, the costs to eliminate errors increase significantly with each advancing process phase. For the quality prediction of hydraulic test steps of directional control valves, the question arises in the initial phase whether a regression or a classification is more suitable. In the context of this work, the initial phase of the CRISP-DM, the business understanding, is critically compared for the use case at Bosch Rexroth with regard to regression and classification. The use of cross-process production data along the value chain of hydraulic valves is a promising approach to predict the quality characteristics of workpieces. Suitable methods for leakage volume flow regression and classification for inspection decision are applied. Impressively, classification is clearly superior to regression and achieves promising accuracies.

Keywords: classification, CRISP-DM, machine learning, predictive quality, regression

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Authors: Bishakha Majumdar, Ranjeet Nambudiri

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Considerable dichotomy exists in research regarding the role of optimism and self-efficacy in work and career outcomes. Optimism and self-efficacy are related to performance, commitment and engagement, but also are implicated in seeing opportunities outside the firm and switching jobs. There is absence of research capturing these opposing strands of findings in the same model and providing a holistic understanding of how the expectancy beliefs operate in case of the working professional. We attempt to bridge this gap by proposing that career-decision self-efficacy and career outcome expectations affect intention to quit through the competitive mediation pathways of internal and external marketability. This model provides a holistic picture of the role of career expectancy beliefs on career outcomes, by considering perceived career opportunities both inside and outside one’s present organization. The understanding extends the application of career expectancy beliefs in the context of career decision-making by the employed individual. Further, it is valuable for reconsidering the effectiveness of hiring and retention techniques used by a firm, as selection, rewards and training programs need to be supplemented by interventions that specifically strengthen the stability pathway.

Keywords: career decision self-efficacy, career outcome expectations, marketability, intention to quit, job mobility

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Authors: Uma Maheshwari V., Rajanikanth Aluvalu, Kumar Gautam

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The COVID-19 disease is a highly contagious viral infection with major worldwide health implications. The global economy suffers as a result of COVID. The spread of this pandemic disease can be slowed if positive patients are found early. COVID-19 disease prediction is beneficial for identifying patients' health problems that are at risk for COVID. Deep learning and machine learning algorithms for COVID prediction using X-rays have the potential to be extremely useful in solving the scarcity of doctors and clinicians in remote places. In this paper, a convolutional neural network (CNN) with deep layers is presented for recognizing COVID-19 patients using real-world datasets. We gathered around 6000 X-ray scan images from various sources and split them into two categories: normal and COVID-impacted. Our model examines chest X-ray images to recognize such patients. Because X-rays are commonly available and affordable, our findings show that X-ray analysis is effective in COVID diagnosis. The predictions performed well, with an average accuracy of 99% on training photographs and 88% on X-ray test images.

Keywords: deep CNN, COVID–19 analysis, feature extraction, feature map, accuracy

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Authors: Giovanna Bimonte, Luigi Senatore, Francesco Saverio Tortoriello, Ilaria Veronesi

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The education process considers capabilities not only to be seen as a means to a certain end but rather as an effective purpose. Sen's capability approach challenges human capital theory, which sees education as an ordinary investment undertaken by individuals. A complex reality requires complex thinking capable of interpreting the dynamics of society's changes to be able to make decisions that can be rational for private, ethical and social contexts. Education is not something removed from the cultural and social context; it exists and is structured within it. In Italy, the "Mathematical High School Project" is a didactic research project is based on additional laboratory courses in extracurricular hours where mathematics intends to bring itself in a dialectical relationship with other disciplines as a cultural bridge between the two cultures, the humanistic and the scientific ones, with interdisciplinary educational modules on themes of strong impact in younger life. This interdisciplinary mathematics presents topics related to the most advanced technologies and contemporary socio-economic frameworks to demonstrate how mathematics is not only a key to reading but also a key to resolving complex problems. The recent developments in mathematics provide the potential for profound and highly beneficial changes in mathematics education at all levels, such as in socio-economic decisions. The research project is built to investigate whether repeated interactions can successfully promote cooperation among students as rational choice and if the skill, the context and the school background can influence the strategies choice and the rationality. A Laboratory on Game Theory as mathematical theory was conducted in the 4th year of the Mathematical High Schools and in an ordinary scientific high school of the Scientific degree program. Students played two simultaneous games of repeated Prisoner's Dilemma with an indefinite horizon, with two different competitors in each round; even though the competitors in each round will remain the same for the duration of the game. The results highlight that most of the students in the two classes used the two games with an immunization strategy against the risk of losing: in one of the games, they started by playing Cooperate, and in the other by the strategy of Compete. In the literature, theoretical models and experiments show that in the case of repeated interactions with the same adversary, the optimal cooperation strategy can be achieved by tit-for-tat mechanisms. In higher education, individual capacities cannot be examined independently, as conceptual framework presupposes a social construction of individuals interacting and competing, making individual and collective choices. The paper will outline all the results of the experimentation and the future development of the research.

Keywords: game theory, interdisciplinarity, mathematics education, mathematical high school

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Authors: V. Kuzhandai Velu, R. Ramesh

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Background and objectives: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is the most common cause of mortality and morbidity. Over the last decade, microRNAs (miRs) have emerged as a potential marker for detecting AMI. The current study evaluates the kinetics and importance of miRs in the differential diagnosis of ST-segment elevated MI (STEMI) and non-STEMI (NSTEMI) and its correlation to conventional biomarkers and to predict the immediate outcome of AMI for arrhythmias and left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. Materials and Method: A total of 100 AMI patients were recruited for the study. Routine cardiac biomarker and miRNA levels were measured during diagnosis and serially at admission, 6, 12, 24, and 72hrs. The baseline biochemical parameters were analyzed. The expression of miRs was compared between STEMI and NSTEMI at different time intervals. Diagnostic utility of miR-1, miR-133, miR-208, and miR-499 levels were analyzed by using RT-PCR and with various diagnostics statistical tools like ROC, odds ratio, and likelihood ratio. Results: The miR-1, miR-133, and miR-499 showed peak concentration at 6 hours, whereas miR-208 showed high significant differences at all time intervals. miR-133 demonstrated the maximum area under the curve at different time intervals in the differential diagnosis of STEMI and NSTEMI which was followed by miR-499 and miR-208. Evaluation of miRs for predicting arrhythmia and LV dysfunction using admission sample demonstrated that miR-1 (OR = 8.64; LR = 1.76) and miR-208 (OR = 26.25; LR = 5.96) showed maximum odds ratio and likelihood respectively. Conclusion: Circulating miRNA showed a highly significant difference between STEMI and NSTEMI in AMI patients. The peak was much earlier than the conventional biomarkers. miR-133, miR-208, and miR-499 can be used in the differential diagnosis of STEMI and NSTEMI, whereas miR-1 and miR-208 could be used in the prediction of arrhythmia and LV dysfunction, respectively.

Keywords: myocardial infarction, cardiac biomarkers, microRNA, arrhythmia, left ventricular dysfunction

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Authors: Seung Hwan Park, Cheng-Sool Park, Jun Seok Kim, Youngji Yoo, Daewoong An, Jun-Geol Baek

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Depending on the big data analysis becomes important, yield prediction using data from the semiconductor process is essential. In general, yield prediction and analysis of the causes of the failure are closely related. The purpose of this study is to analyze pattern affects the final test results using a die map based clustering. Many researches have been conducted using die data from the semiconductor test process. However, analysis has limitation as the test data is less directly related to the final test results. Therefore, this study proposes a framework for analysis through clustering using more detailed data than existing die data. This study consists of three phases. In the first phase, die map is created through fail bit data in each sub-area of die. In the second phase, clustering using map data is performed. And the third stage is to find patterns that affect final test result. Finally, the proposed three steps are applied to actual industrial data and experimental results showed the potential field application.

Keywords: die-map clustering, feature extraction, pattern recognition, semiconductor manufacturing process

Procedia PDF Downloads 397

Authors: O. J. Akinsola, Yinan Zheng, Rose Anorlu, F. T. Ogunsola, Lifang Hou, Robert Leo-Murphy

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Cervical Cancer (CC) is the 2nd most common cancer among women living in low and middle-income countries, with no associated symptoms during formative periods. With the advancement and innovative medical research, there are numerous preventive measures being utilized, but the incidence of cervical cancer cannot be truncated with the application of only screening tests. The mortality associated with this invasive cervical cancer can be nipped in the bud through the important role of early-stage detection. This study research selected an array of different top features selection techniques which was aimed at developing a model that could validly diagnose the risk factors of cervical cancer. A retrospective clinic-based cohort study was conducted on 178 HIV-associated cervical cancer patients in Lagos University teaching Hospital, Nigeria (U54 data repository) in April 2022. The outcome measure was the automated prediction of the HIV-associated cervical cancer cases, while the predictor variables include: demographic information, reproductive history, birth control, sexual history, cervical cancer screening history for invasive cervical cancer. The proposed technique was assessed with R and Python programming software to produce the model by utilizing the classification algorithms for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer disease. Four machine learning classification algorithms used are: the machine learning model was split into training and testing dataset into ratio 80:20. The numerical features were also standardized while hyperparameter tuning was carried out on the machine learning to train and test the data. Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN). Some fitting features were selected for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer diseases from selected characteristics in the dataset using the contribution of various selection methods for the classification cervical cancer into healthy or diseased status. The mean age of patients was 49.7±12.1 years, mean age at pregnancy was 23.3±5.5 years, mean age at first sexual experience was 19.4±3.2 years, while the mean BMI was 27.1±5.6 kg/m2. A larger percentage of the patients are Married (62.9%), while most of them have at least two sexual partners (72.5%). Age of patients (OR=1.065, p<0.001**), marital status (OR=0.375, p=0.011**), number of pregnancy live-births (OR=1.317, p=0.007**), and use of birth control pills (OR=0.291, p=0.015**) were found to be significantly associated with HIV-associated cervical cancer. On top ten 10 features (variables) considered in the analysis, RF claims the overall model performance, which include: accuracy of (72.0%), the precision of (84.6%), a recall of (84.6%) and F1-score of (74.0%) while LR has: an accuracy of (74.0%), precision of (70.0%), recall of (70.0%) and F1-score of (70.0%). The RF model identified 10 features predictive of developing cervical cancer. The age of patients was considered as the most important risk factor, followed by the number of pregnancy livebirths, marital status, and use of birth control pills, The study shows that data mining techniques could be used to identify women living with HIV at high risk of developing cervical cancer in Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African countries.

Keywords: associated cervical cancer, data mining, random forest, logistic regression

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Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

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The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

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Authors: J. Balaraju, M. Govinda Raj, C. S. N. Murthy

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Every industry is constantly looking for enhancement of its day to day production and productivity. This can be possible only by maintaining the men and machinery at its adequate level. Prediction of performance characteristics plays an important role in performance evaluation of the equipment. Analytical and statistical approaches will take a bit more time to solve complex problems such as performance estimations as compared with software-based approaches. Keeping this in view the present study deals with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modelling of a Load-Haul-Dump (LHD) machine to predict the performance characteristics such as reliability, availability and preventive maintenance (PM). A feed-forward-back-propagation ANN technique has been used to model the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) training algorithm. The performance characteristics were computed using Isograph Reliability Workbench 13.0 software. These computed values were validated using predicted output responses of ANN models. Further, recommendations are given to the industry based on the performed analysis for improvement of equipment performance.

Keywords: load-haul-dump, LHD, artificial neural network, ANN, performance, reliability, availability, preventive maintenance

Procedia PDF Downloads 144