Search results for: demand estimate

Authors: Anna Ching-Yu Wong

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Introduction: Textbooks play a sizable portion of the overall cost of higher education students. It is a board consent that open education resources (OER) reduce the te4xtbook costs and provide students a way to receive high-quality learning materials at little or no cost to them. However, there is less agreement over exactly how much. This study presents an approach for calculating OER savings by using SUNY Canton NON-OER courses (N=233) to estimate the potentially textbook savings for one semester – Fall 2022. The purpose in collecting data is to understand how much potentially saved from using OER materials and to have a record for future further studies. Literature Reviews: In the past years, researchers identified the rising cost of textbooks disproportionately harm students in higher education institutions and how much an average cost of a textbook. For example, Nyamweya (2018) found that on average students save $116.94 per course when OER adopted in place of traditional commercial textbooks by using a simple formula. Student PIRGs (2015) used reports of per-course savings when transforming a course from using a commercial textbook to OER to reach an estimate of $100 average cost savings per course. Allen and Wiley (2016) presented at the 2016 Open Education Conference on multiple cost-savings studies and concluded $100 was reasonable per-course savings estimates. Ruth (2018) calculated an average cost of a textbook was $79.37 per-course. Hilton, et al (2014) conducted a study with seven community colleges across the nation and found the average textbook cost to be $90.61. There is less agreement over exactly how much would be saved by adopting an OER course. This study used SUNY Canton as a case study to create an approach for estimating OER savings. Methodology: Step one: Identify NON-OER courses from UcanWeb Class Schedule. Step two: View textbook lists for the classes (Campus bookstore prices). Step three: Calculate the average textbook prices by averaging the new book and used book prices. Step four: Multiply the average textbook prices with the number of students in the course. Findings: The result of this calculation was straightforward. The average of a traditional textbooks is $132.45. Students potentially saved $1,091,879.94. Conclusion: (1) The result confirms what we have known: Adopting OER in place of traditional textbooks and materials achieves significant savings for students, as well as the parents and taxpayers who support them through grants and loans. (2) The average textbook savings for adopting an OER course is variable depending on the size of the college and as well as the number of enrollment students.

Keywords: textbook savings, open textbooks, textbook costs assessment, open access

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Authors: A. Paz, S. Cortés Diéguez, J. M. Cruz, A. B. Moldes, J. M. Domínguez

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Synthetic dyes are extensively used in the paper, food, leather, cosmetics, pharmaceutical and textile industries. Wastewater resulting from their production means several environmental problems. Improper disposal of theirs effluents involves adverse impacts and not only about the colour, also on water quality (Total Organic Carbon, Biological Oxygen Demand, Chemical Oxygen Demand, suspended solids, salinity, etc.) on flora (inhibition of photosynthetic activity), fauna (toxic, carcinogenic, and mutagenic effects) and human health. The aim of this work is to optimize the decolourisation process of different types of dyes by Bacillus aryabhattai. Initially, different types of dyes (Indigo Carmine, Coomassie Brilliant Blue and Remazol Brilliant Blue R) and suitable culture media (Nutritive Broth, Luria Bertani Broth and Trypticasein Soy Broth) were selected. Then, a central composite design (CCD) was employed to optimise and analyse the significance of each abiotic parameter. Three process variables (temperature, salt concentration and agitation) were investigated in the CCD at 3 levels with 2-star points. A total of 23 experiments were carried out according to a full factorial design, consisting of 8 factorial experiments (coded to the usual ± 1 notation), 6 axial experiments (on the axis at a distance of ± α from the centre), and 9 replicates (at the centre of the experimental domain). Experiments results suggest the efficiency of this strain to remove the tested dyes on the 3 media studied, although Trypticasein Soy Broth (TSB) was the most suitable medium. Indigo Carmine and Coomassie Brilliant Blue at maximal tested concentration 150 mg/l were completely decolourised, meanwhile, an acceptable removal was observed using the more complicate dye Remazol Brilliant Blue R at a concentration of 50 mg/l.

Keywords: Bacillus aryabhattai, dyes, decolourisation, central composite design

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Authors: Guenther Schuh, Stephan Schroeder, Marcel Faulhaber

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Companies are facing an increasing pressure to innovate faster, cheaper and more radical in last years, due to shrinking product lifecycles and higher volatility of markets and customer demands. Especially established companies struggle meeting those demands. Thus, many producing companies are adapting their development processes to address this increasing pressure. One approach taken by many companies is the use of agile, highly iterative development processes to reduce development times and costs as well as to increase the fulfilled customer requirements and the realized level of innovation. At the same time decreasing depths of added value and increasing focus on core competencies as well as a growing product complexity result in a high dependency on suppliers and external development partners during the product development. Thus, a successful introduction of agile development methods into the development of physical products requires also a successful integration of the necessary external partners and suppliers into the new processes and procedures and an adaption of the organizational interfaces to external partners according to the new circumstances and requirements of agile development processes. For an effective and efficient product development, the design of customer-supplier-relationships should be demand-oriented. A significant influence on the required design has the characteristics of the procurement object. Examples therefore are the complexity of technical interfaces between supply object and final product or the importance of the supplied component for the major product functionalities. Thus, this paper presents an approach to derive general requirements on the design of supplier integration according to the characteristics of supply objects. First, therefore the most relevant evaluation criteria and characteristics have been identified based on a thorough literature review. Subsequently the resulting requirements on the design of the supplier integration were derived depending on the different possible values of these criteria.

Keywords: iterative development processes, agile new product development, procurement, supplier integration

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Authors: Bela Lebedeva

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Characteristics of the Web as a channel of information dissemination - accessibility and openness, interactivity and multimedia news - become wider and cover the audience quickly, positively affecting the perception of content, but blur out the understanding of the journalistic work. As a result audience and advertisers continue migrating to the Internet. Moreover, online targeting allows monetizing not only the audience (as customarily given to traditional media) but also the content and traffic more accurately. While the users identify themselves with the qualitative characteristics of the new market, its actors are formed. Conflict of interests is laid in the base of the economy of their relations, the problem of traffic tax as an example. Meanwhile, content monetization actualizes fiscal interest of the state too. The balance of supply and demand is often violated due to the political risks, particularly in terms of state capitalism, populism and authoritarian methods of governance such social institutions as the media. A unique example of access to journalistic material, limited by monetization of content is a television channel Dozhd' (Rain) in Russian web space. Its liberal-minded audience has a better possibility for discussion. However, the channel could have been much more successful in terms of unlimited free speech. Avoiding state pressure and censorship its management has decided to save at least online performance and monetizing all of the content for the core audience. The study Methodology was primarily based on the analysis of journalistic content, on the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the audience. Reconstructing main events and relationships of actors on the market for the last six years researcher has reached some conclusions. First, under the condition of content monetization the capitalization of its quality will always strive to quality characteristics of user, thereby identifying him. Vice versa, the user's demand generates high-quality journalism. The second conclusion follows the previous one. The growth of technology, information noise, new political challenges, the economy volatility and the cultural paradigm change – all these factors form the content paying model for an individual user. This model defines him as a beneficiary of specific knowledge and indicates the constant balance of supply and demand other conditions being equal. As a result, a new economic quality of information is created. This feature is an indicator of the market as a self-regulated system. Monetized information quality is less popular than that of the Public Broadcasting Service, but this audience is able to make decisions. These very users keep the niche sectors which have more potential of technology development, including the content monetization ways. The third point of the study allows develop it in the discourse of media space liberalization. This cultural phenomenon may open opportunities for the development of social and economic relations architecture both locally and regionally.

Keywords: content monetization, state capitalism, media liberalization, media economy, information quality

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Authors: Md. Abud Darda

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Different options for natural gas production in wide geographic areas may be described through diffusion of innovation models. This type of modeling approach provides an indirect estimate of an ultimately recoverable resource, URR, capture the quantitative effects of observed strategic interventions, and allow ex-ante assessments of future scenarios over time. In order to ensure a sustainable energy policy, it is important to forecast the availability of this natural resource. Considering a finite life cycle, in this paper we try to investigate the natural gas production of Myanmar and Algeria, two important natural gas provider in the world energy market. A number of homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models, with convenient extensions, have been used. Models validation has also been performed in terms of prediction capability.

Keywords: diffusion models, energy forecast, natural gas, nonlinear production

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Authors: Ezra N. S. Lockhart

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The number of children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has increased approximately 173% during the last decade making ASD the fastest growing developmental disability in the United States. This rise in prevalence rates indeed has an effect on schools. ASD is overwhelmingly the most reported primary special education eligibility category for students accessing special education, at a national average of 61.3%. ASD is regarded as an urgent public health concern at an estimated annual per capita cost of $3.2 million. Furthermore, considering that ASD is a lifelong disorder estimated lifetime per capita cost reach $35 billion. The resources available to special education programs are insufficient to meet the educational needs of the 6.4 million students receiving special educational services. This is especially true given that there has been and continues to be a chronic shortage of fully certified special education teachers for decades. Reports indicate that 81.1% of students with special needs spend 40% or more in general education classrooms. Regardless of whether support is implemented in the special education or general education classroom the resource demand is obvious. Schools are actively seeking to implement low-cost alternatives and budget saving measures in response to this demand. In public school settings, programs such as Applied Behavior Analysis are challenging to implement and fund at $40,000 per student per year. As an alternative, computer-based interventions are inexpensive, less time-consuming to implement, and require minimal teacher or paraprofessional training to administer. Affordability, pricing schemes, availability, and compatibility of computer-based interventions that support social and emotional skill development in individuals with ASD are discussed.

Keywords: affordability, autism spectrum disorder, computer-based intervention, emotional skills, social skills

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Authors: Yenesew Mengiste Yihun, Abraham Mehari Haile, Teklu Erkossa, Bart Schultz

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Teff (Eragrostic tef) is a staple food in Ethiopia. The local and international demand for the crop is ever increasing pushing the current price five times compared with that in 2006. To meet this escalating demand increasing production including using irrigation is imperative. Optimum application of irrigation water, especially in semi-arid areas is profoundly important. AquaCrop model application in irrigation water scheduling and simulation of water productivity helps both irrigation planners and agricultural water managers. This paper presents simulation and evaluation of AquaCrop model in optimizing the yield and biomass response to variation in timing and rate of irrigation water application. Canopy expansion, canopy senescence and harvest index are the key physiological processes sensitive to water stress. For full irrigation water application treatment there was a strong relationship between the measured and simulated canopy and biomass with r2 and d values of 0.87 and 0.96 for canopy and 0.97 and 0.74 for biomass, respectively. However, the model under estimated the simulated yield and biomass for higher water stress level. For treatment receiving full irrigation the harvest index value obtained were 29%. The harvest index value shows generally a decreasing trend under water stress condition. AquaCrop model calibration and validation using the dry season field experiments of 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 shows that AquaCrop adequately simulated the yield response to different irrigation water scenarios. We conclude that the AquaCrop model can be used in irrigation water scheduling and optimizing water productivity of Teff grown under water scarce semi-arid conditions.

Keywords: AquaCrop, climate smart agriculture, simulation, teff, water security, water stress regions

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Authors: Rameshwar Dahal, S. Ping Ho

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Although the demand for infrastructure development forms a promising market opportunity for international firms, the dominance of informal institutions over formal ones, investors are facing extraordinary institutional challenges when investing in emerging Least Developed Countries (LDCs). We believe that, in emerging LDCs, the project performance heavily depends on how well the entrants respond to the challenges exerted by the host institutional environments. Which primarily depends on how much they learn about the host institution and what strategy they apply in response. In Nepal, almost all international or global infrastructure projects are financed by international financers, so the procurement process of the infrastructure projects financed by foreign agencies is guided by the policies and regulations of the financer. Because of limited resources and the financers’ demand, contractors and consults are procured internationally. Moreover, the resources, including but not limited to construction material, manpower, and equipment, also need to be imported. Therefore, the involvement of international companies as an entrant in global infrastructure projects of LDCs is obvious. In a global project (GP), participants from different geographical and institutional environments hold different beliefs and have disparate interests. Therefore, the entrants face the challenges exerted by the host institutional environments. The entrants must either adapt to the institutions prevailing in the environment or resist the institutional pressures. It is hypothesized that, in emerging LDCs, the project performance heavily depends on how much the entrants learn about the host institutional knowledge and how well they respond to the institutional environments. While it is impossible to generalize the phenomenon and contextual conditions because of their vast diversity, this study has answered why and how participants’ level of institutional knowledge impacts the project's implementation performance. To draw that conclusion, firstly, we explored two typical GPs from Nepal. For this study, the data were collected by conducting interviews and examining the secondary data, such as the project reports published by the financers, project data provided by interviewees, and news reports. In an event analysis, firstly, we identify the sources, causes, or nature of the institutional challenges; secondly, we analyze the entrant’s responses to the exerted challenges and evaluate the impacts of the responses on the overall project performance. In this study, at first, the events occurred during the project implementation process have a causal link with the local institutions that demand the entrants’ response are extracted. Secondly, each event is scrutinized as the critical success factor of the case project. Finally, it is crucially examined whether and what institutional knowledge in these events played a critical role in project success or failure. The results also provide insights into the crucial institutional knowledge in LDCs and the subsequent strategy implications for undertaking projects in LDCs.

Keywords: emerging countries, LDC, project management, project performance, institutional knowledge, institutional theory

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Authors: Majid Pourahmadi

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The performance of time-reversal MUSIC algorithm will be dramatically degrades in presence of strong noise and multiple scattering (i.e. when scatterers are close to each other). This is due to error in determining the number of scatterers. The present paper provides a new approach to alleviate such a problem using an information theoretic criterion referred as minimum description length (MDL). The merits of the novel approach are confirmed by the numerical examples. The results indicate the time-reversal MUSIC yields accurate estimate of the target locations with considerable noise and multiple scattering in the received signals.

Keywords: microwave imaging, time reversal, MUSIC algorithm, minimum description length (MDL)

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Authors: Al Omari Moahmmed Ahmed

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In the Bayesian, we developed an approach by using non-informative prior with covariate and obtained by using Gauss quadrature method to estimate the parameters of the covariate and reliability function of the Weibull regression distribution with Type-I censored data. The maximum likelihood seen that the estimators obtained are not available in closed forms, although they can be solved it by using Newton-Raphson methods. The comparison criteria are the MSE and the performance of these estimates are assessed using simulation considering various sample size, several specific values of shape parameter. The results show that Bayesian with non-informative prior is better than Maximum Likelihood Estimator.

Keywords: non-informative prior, Bayesian method, type-I censoring, Gauss quardature

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Authors: Xu Feifei

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The prevalence of COVID-19 currently is the biggest challenge to improving people's quality of life. Its impact on the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is highly uncertain and has not been summarized so far. The aim of the present systematic review was to assess and provide an up-to-date analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the HRQoL of participants who have been infected, have not been infected but isolated, frontline, with different diseases, and the general population. Therefore, an electronic search of the literature in PubMed databases was performed from 2019 to July 2022 (without date restriction). PRISMA guideline methodology was employed, and data regarding the HRQoL were extracted from eligible studies. Articles were included if they met the following inclusion criteria: (a) reports on the data collection of the health state utility values (HSUVs) related to COVID-19 from 2019 to 2021; (b) English language and peer-reviewed journals; and (c) original HSUV data; (d) using EQ-5D tool to quantify the HRQoL. To identify studies that reported the effects on COVID-19, data on the proportion of overall HSUVs of participants who had the outcome were collected and analyzed using a one-group meta-analysis. As a result, thirty-two studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and, therefore, were included in the systematic review. A total of 45295 participants and provided 219 means of HSUVs during COVID-19 were included in this systematic review. The range of utility is from 0.224 to 1. The study included participants from Europe (n=16), North America (n=4), Asia (n=10), South America (n=1), and Africa (n=1). Twelve articles showed that the HRQoL of the participants who have been infected with COVID-19 (range of overall HSUVs from 0.6125 to 0.863). Two studies reported the population of frontline workers (the range of overall HSUVs from 0.82 to 0.93). Seven of the articles researched the participants who had not been infected with COVID-19 but suffered from morbidities during the pandemic (range of overall HSUVs from 0.5 to 0.96). Thirteen studies showed that the HRQoL of the respondents who have not been infected with COVID-19 and without any morbidities (range of overall HSUVs from 0.64 to 0.964). Moreover, eighteen articles reported the outcomes of overall HSUVs during the COVID-19 pandemic in different population groups. The estimate of overall HSUVs of direct COVID-19 experience population (n=1333) was 0.751 (95% CI 0.670 - 0.832, I2 = 98.64%); the estimate of frontline population (n=610) was 0.906 ((95% CI 0.854 – 0.957, I2 = 98.61%); participants with different disease (n=132) were 0.768 (95% CI 0.515 - 1.021, I2= 99.26%); general population without infection history (n=29,892) was 0.825 (95% CI 0.766 - 0.885, I2 =99.69%). Conclusively, taking into account these results, this systematic review might confirm that COVID-19 has a negative impact on the HRQoL of the infected population and illness population. It provides practical value for cost-effectiveness model analysis of health states related to COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19, health-related quality of life, meta-analysis, systematic review, utility value

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Boce Zhang, Yaguang Luo

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Ripening of climacteric fruits, such as bananas and avocados, are usually initiated days prior to the retail marketing. However, upon the onset of irreversible ripening, they undergo rapid spoilage if not consumed within a narrow climacteric time window. Controlled ripening of climacteric fruits is a critical step to provide consumers with high-quality products while reducing postharvest losses and food waste. There is a high demand for technologies that can retard the ripening process or enable accelerated ripening immediately before consumption. In this work, metal−organic framework (MOF) was developed as a solid porous matrix to encapsulate gaseous hormone, including ethylene, for subsequent application. The feasibility of the on-demand stimulated ripening of bananas and avocados is also evaluated. MOF was synthesized and loaded with ethylene gas. The MOF−ethylene was placed inside sealed containers with preclimacteric bananas and avocados and stored at 16 °C. The fruits were treated for 24-48 hours, and evaluated for ripening progress. Results indicate that MOF−ethylene treatment significantly accelerated the ripening-related changes of color and textural properties in treated bananas and avocados. The average ripening period for both avocados and bananas were reduced in half by using this method. No significant differences of quality characteristics at respective ripening stages were observed between produce ripened via MOF-ethylene versus exogenously supplied ethylene gas or endogenously produced ethylene. Solid MOF matrices could have multiple advantages compared to existing systems, including easy to transport and safe to use by minimally trained produce handlers and consumers. We envision that this technology can help tackle food waste challenges at the critical retail and consumer stages in the food supply chain.

Keywords: climacteric produce, controllable ripening, food waste challenge, metal organic framework

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Chin-Chia Jane

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In a transportation network, travel time refers to the transmission time from source node to destination node, whereas reliability refers to the probability of a successful connection from source node to destination node. With an increasing emphasis on quality of service (QoS), both performance indexes are significant in the design and analysis of transportation systems. In this work, we extend the well-known flow network model for transportation networks so that travel time and reliability are integrated into the QoS measurement simultaneously. In the extended model, in addition to the general arc capacities, each intermediate node has a time weight which is the travel time for per unit of commodity going through the node. Meanwhile, arcs and nodes are treated as binary random variables that switch between operation and failure with associated probabilities. For pre-specified travel time limitation and demand requirement, the QoS of a transportation network is the probability that source can successfully transport the demand requirement to destination while the total transmission time is under the travel time limitation. This work is pioneering, since existing literatures that evaluate travel time reliability via a single optimization path, the proposed QoS focuses the performance of the whole network system. To compute the QoS of transportation networks, we first transfer the extended network model into an equivalent min-cost max-flow network model. In the transferred network, each arc has a new travel time weight which takes value 0. Each intermediate node is replaced by two nodes u and v, and an arc directed from u to v. The newly generated nodes u and v are perfect nodes. The new direct arc has three weights: travel time, capacity, and operation probability. Then the universal set of state vectors is recursively decomposed into disjoint subsets of reliable, unreliable, and stochastic vectors until no stochastic vector is left. The decomposition is made possible by applying existing efficient min-cost max-flow algorithm. Because the reliable subsets are disjoint, QoS can be obtained directly by summing the probabilities of these reliable subsets. Computational experiments are conducted on a benchmark network which has 11 nodes and 21 arcs. Five travel time limitations and five demand requirements are set to compute the QoS value. To make a comparison, we test the exhaustive complete enumeration method. Computational results reveal the proposed algorithm is much more efficient than the complete enumeration method. In this work, a transportation network is analyzed by an extended flow network model where each arc has a fixed capacity, each intermediate node has a time weight, and both arcs and nodes are independent binary random variables. The quality of service of the transportation network is an integration of customer demands, travel time, and the probability of connection. We present a decomposition algorithm to compute the QoS efficiently. Computational experiments conducted on a prototype network show that the proposed algorithm is superior to existing complete enumeration methods.

Keywords: quality of service, reliability, transportation network, travel time

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Authors: Eman W. Boghdady, A. R. Shehata, M. A. Azem

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Database (DB) security demands permitting authorized users and prohibiting non-authorized users and intruders actions on the DB and the objects inside it. Organizations that are running successfully demand the confidentiality of their DBs. They do not allow the unauthorized access to their data/information. They also demand the assurance that their data is protected against any malicious or accidental modification. DB protection and confidentiality are the security concerns. There are four types of controls to obtain the DB protection, those include: access control, information flow control, inference control, and cryptographic. The cryptographic control is considered as the backbone for DB security, it secures the DB by encryption during storage and communications. Current cryptographic techniques are classified into two types: traditional classical cryptography using standard algorithms (DES, AES, IDEA, etc.) and chaos cryptography using continuous (Chau, Rossler, Lorenz, etc.) or discreet (Logistics, Henon, etc.) algorithms. The important characteristics of chaos are its extreme sensitivity to initial conditions of the system. In this paper, DB-security systems based on chaotic algorithms are described. The Pseudo Random Numbers Generators (PRNGs) from the different chaotic algorithms are implemented using Matlab and their statistical properties are evaluated using NIST and other statistical test-suits. Then, these algorithms are used to secure conventional DB (plaintext), where the statistical properties of the ciphertext are also tested. To increase the complexity of the PRNGs and to let pass all the NIST statistical tests, we propose two hybrid PRNGs: one based on two chaotic Logistic maps and another based on two chaotic Henon maps, where each chaotic algorithm is running side-by-side and starting from random independent initial conditions and parameters (encryption keys). The resulted hybrid PRNGs passed the NIST statistical test suit.

Keywords: algorithms and data structure, DB security, encryption, chaotic algorithms, Matlab, NIST

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Authors: Mergim Gasia, Bojan Milovanovica, Sanjin Gumbarevic

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Better energy performance of the building envelope is one of the most important aspects of energy savings if the goals set by the European Union are to be achieved in the future. Dynamic heat transfer simulations are being used for the calculation of building energy consumption because they give more realistic energy demands compared to the stationary calculations that do not take the building’s thermal mass into account. Software used for these dynamic simulation use methods that are based on the analytical models since numerical models are insufficient for longer periods. The analytical models used in this research fall in the category of the conduction transfer functions (CTFs). Two methods for calculating the CTFs covered by this research are the Laplace method and the State-Space method. The literature review showed that the main disadvantage of these methods is that they are inadequate for heavyweight façade elements and shorter time periods used for the calculation. The algorithms for both the Laplace and State-Space methods are implemented in Mathematica, and the results are compared to the results from EnergyPlus and TRNSYS since these software use similar algorithms for the calculation of the building’s energy demand. This research aims to check the efficiency of the Laplace and the State-Space method for calculating the building’s energy demand for heavyweight building elements and shorter sampling time, and it also gives the means for the improvement of the algorithms used by these methods. As the reference point for the boundary heat flux density, the finite difference method (FDM) is used. Even though the dynamic heat transfer simulations are superior to the calculation based on the stationary boundary conditions, they have their limitations and will give unsatisfactory results if not properly used.

Keywords: Laplace method, state-space method, conduction transfer functions, finite difference method

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Authors: Mao Zhaofang, Xu Yida, Fang Kan, Fu Enyuan, Zhao Zhao

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Nowadays, last-mile distribution plays an increasingly important role in the whole industrial chain delivery link and accounts for a large proportion of the whole distribution process cost. Promoting the upgrading of logistics networks and improving the layout of final distribution points has become one of the trends in the development of modern logistics. Due to the discrete and heterogeneous needs and spatial distribution of customer demand, which will lead to a higher delivery failure rate and lower vehicle utilization, last-mile delivery has become a time-consuming and uncertain process. As a result, courier companies have introduced a range of innovative parcel storage facilities, including pick-up points and lockers. The introduction of pick-up points and lockers has not only improved the users’ experience but has also helped logistics and courier companies achieve large-scale economy. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 of the previous period, contactless delivery has become a new hotspot, which has also created new opportunities for the development of collection services. Therefore, a key issue for logistics companies is how to design/redesign their last-mile distribution network systems to create integrated logistics and distribution networks that consider pick-up points and lockers. This paper focuses on the introduction of self-pickup facilities in new logistics and distribution scenarios and the heterogeneous demands of customers. In this paper, we consider two types of demand, including ordinary products and refrigerated products, as well as corresponding transportation vehicles. We consider the constraints associated with self-pickup points and lockers and then address the location-routing problem with self-pickup facilities and heterogeneous demands (LRP-PFHD). To solve this challenging problem, we propose a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model that aims to minimize the total cost, which includes the facility opening cost, the variable transport cost, and the fixed transport cost. Due to the NP-hardness of the problem, we propose a hybrid adaptive large-neighbourhood search algorithm to solve LRP-PFHD. We evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithm by using instances generated based on benchmark instances. The results demonstrate that the hybrid adaptive large neighbourhood search algorithm is more efficient than MILP solvers such as Gurobi for LRP-PFHD, especially for large-scale instances. In addition, we made a comprehensive analysis of some important parameters (e.g., facility opening cost and transportation cost) to explore their impacts on the results and suggested helpful managerial insights for courier companies.

Keywords: city logistics, last-mile delivery, location-routing, adaptive large neighborhood search

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Authors: Mohammed T. Shukri

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The failure of bridges due to excessive local scour during floods poses a challenging problem to hydraulic engineers. The failure of bridges piers is due to many reasons such as localized scour combined with general riverbed degradation. In this paper, we try to estimate the temporal variation of scour depth at nonuniform cylindrical bridge pier, by experimental work conducted in hydraulic laboratories of Gaziantep University Civil Engineering Department on a flume having dimensions of 8.3 m length, 0.8 m width and 0.9 m depth. The experiments will be carried on 20 cm depth of sediment layer having d₅₀=0.4 mm. Three bridge pier shapes having different scaled models will be constructed in a 1.5m of test section in the channel.

Keywords: scour, local scour, bridge piers, scour depth

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Authors: Haya Salah, Srinivas Sharan

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Healthcare facilities use appointment systems to schedule their appointments and to manage access to their medical services. With the growing demand for outpatient care, it is now imperative to manage physician's time effectively. However, high variation in consultation duration affects the clinical scheduler's ability to estimate the appointment duration and allocate provider time appropriately. Underestimating consultation times can lead to physician's burnout, misdiagnosis, and patient dissatisfaction. On the other hand, appointment durations that are longer than required lead to doctor idle time and fewer patient visits. Therefore, a good estimation of consultation duration has the potential to improve timely access to care, resource utilization, quality of care, and patient satisfaction. Although the literature on factors influencing consultation length abound, little work has done to predict it using based data-driven approaches. Therefore, this study aims to predict consultation duration using supervised machine learning algorithms (ML), which predicts an outcome variable (e.g., consultation) based on potential features that influence the outcome. In particular, ML algorithms learn from a historical dataset without explicitly being programmed and uncover the relationship between the features and outcome variable. A subset of the data used in this study has been obtained from the electronic medical records (EMR) of four different outpatient clinics located in central Pennsylvania, USA. Also, publicly available information on doctor's characteristics such as gender and experience has been extracted from online sources. This research develops three popular ML algorithms (deep learning, random forest, gradient boosting machine) to predict the treatment time required for a patient and conducts a comparative analysis of these algorithms with respect to predictive performance. The findings of this study indicate that ML algorithms have the potential to predict the provider service time with superior accuracy. While the current approach of experience-based appointment duration estimation adopted by the clinic resulted in a mean absolute percentage error of 25.8%, the Deep learning algorithm developed in this study yielded the best performance with a MAPE of 12.24%, followed by gradient boosting machine (13.26%) and random forests (14.71%). Besides, this research also identified the critical variables affecting consultation duration to be patient type (new vs. established), doctor's experience, zip code, appointment day, and doctor's specialty. Moreover, several practical insights are obtained based on the comparative analysis of the ML algorithms. The machine learning approach presented in this study can serve as a decision support tool and could be integrated into the appointment system for effectively managing patient scheduling.

Keywords: clinical decision support system, machine learning algorithms, patient scheduling, prediction models, provider service time

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Authors: Fatemeh Nemati, Lucinda Leonard, Gwyn Lintern, Richard Thomson

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In this study, we will use modern numerical modeling approaches to estimate tsunami risks to the southern coast of British Columbia from landslides. Wave generation is to be simulated using the NHWAVE model, which solves the Navier-Stokes equations due to the more complex behavior of flow near the landslide source; far-field wave propagation will be simulated using the simpler model FUNWAVE_TVD with high-order Boussinesq-type wave equations, with a focus on the accurate simulation of wave propagation and regional- or coastal-scale inundation predictions.

Keywords: FUNWAVE-TVD, landslide-generated tsunami, NHWAVE, tsunami risk

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Authors: Benoît Mary, Thibaut Gras, Gaëtan Fagot, Yvon Goth, Ilyes Mnassri-Cetim

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A Gerotor pump is composed of an external and internal gear with conjugate cycloidal profiles. From suction to delivery ports, the fluid is transported inside cavities formed by teeth and driven by the shaft. From a geometric and conceptional side it is worth to note that the internal gear has one tooth less than the external one. Simcenter Amesim v.16 includes a new submodel for modelling the hydraulic Gerotor pumps behavior (THCDGP0). This submodel considers leakages between teeth tips using Poiseuille and Couette flows contributions. From the 3D CAD model of the studied pump, the “CAD import” tool takes out the main geometrical characteristics and the submodel THCDGP0 computes the evolution of each cavity volume and their relative position according to the suction or delivery areas. This module, based on international publications, presents robust results up to 6 000 rpm for pressure greater than atmospheric level. For higher rotational speeds or lower pressures, oil aeration and cavitation effects are significant and highly drop the pump’s performance. The liquid used in hydraulic systems always contains some gas, which is dissolved in the liquid at high pressure and tends to be released in a free form (i.e. undissolved as bubbles) when pressure drops. In addition to gas release and dissolution, the liquid itself may vaporize due to cavitation. To model the relative density of the equivalent fluid, modified Henry’s law is applied in Simcenter Amesim v.16 to predict the fraction of undissolved gas or vapor. Three parietal pressure sensors have been set up upstream from the pump to estimate the sound speed in the oil. Analytical models have been compared with the experimental sound speed to estimate the occluded gas content. Simcenter Amesim v.16 model was supplied by these previous analyses marks which have successfully improved the simulations results up to 14 000 rpm. This work provides a sound foundation for designing the next Gerotor pump generation reaching high rotation range more than 25 000 rpm. This improved module results will be compared to tests on this new pump demonstrator.

Keywords: gerotor pump, high speed, numerical simulations, aeronautic, aeration, cavitation

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Authors: Sunghun Jung, Wonkook Kim

Abstract:

Due to the difficulty of the utilization of satellite and an aircraft, conventional ocean color remote sensing has a disadvantage in that it is difficult to obtain images of desired places at desired times. These disadvantages make it difficult to capture the anomalies such as the occurrence of the red tide which requires immediate observation. It is also difficult to understand the phenomena such as the resuspension-precipitation process of suspended solids and the spread of low-salinity water originating in the coastal areas. For the remote sensing reflectance of seawater, above-water radiometers (AWR) have been used either by carrying portable AWRs on a ship or installing those at fixed observation points on the Ieodo ocean research station, Socheongcho base, and etc. In particular, however, it requires the high cost to measure the remote reflectance in various seawater environments at various times and it is even not possible to measure it at the desired frequency in the desired sea area at the desired time. Also, in case of the stationary observation, it is advantageous that observation data is continuously obtained, but there is the disadvantage that data of various sea areas cannot be obtained. It is possible to instantly capture various marine phenomena occurring on the coast using the unmanned aerial system (UAS) including vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) type unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) since it could move and hover at the one location and acquire data of the desired form at a high resolution. To remotely estimate seawater constituents, it is necessary to install an ultra-spectral sensor. Also, to calculate reflected light from the surface of the sea in consideration of the sun’s incident light, a total of three sensors need to be installed on the UAV. The remote sensing reflectance of seawater is the most basic optical property for remotely estimating color components in seawater and we could remotely estimate the chlorophyll concentration, the suspended solids concentration, and the dissolved organic amount. Estimating seawater physics from the remote sensing reflectance requires the algorithm development using the accumulation data of seawater reflectivity under various seawater and atmospheric conditions. The UAS with three AWRs is developed for the remote reflection sensing on the surface of the sea. Throughout the paper, we explain the details of each UAS component, system operation scenarios, and simulation and experiment results. The UAS consists of a UAV, a solar tracker, a transmitter, a ground control station (GCS), three AWRs, and two gimbals.

Keywords: above-water radiometers (AWR), ground control station (GCS), unmanned aerial system (UAS), unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)

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Authors: A. Brahma

Abstract:

Analysis of deferred deformations of concrete under sustained load shows that the creep has a leading role on deferred deformations of concrete structures. Knowledge of the creep characteristics of concrete is a Necessary starting point in the design of structures for crack control. Such knowledge will enable the designer to estimate the probable deformation in pre-stressed concrete or reinforced and the appropriate steps can be taken in design to accommodate this movement. In this study, we propose a prediction model that involves the acting principal parameters on the deferred behaviour of concrete structures. For the estimation of the model parameters Levenberg-Marquardt method has proven very satisfactory. A confrontation between the experimental results and the predictions of models designed shows that it is well suited to describe the evolution of the creep of concrete structures.

Keywords: concrete structure, creep, modelling, prediction

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Authors: Temidayo James Aransiola, Vania Ceccato, Marcelo Justus

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This paper investigates the effect of absolute deprivation (proxy unemployment) and relative deprivation (proxy income inequality) on homicide levels in Brazil. A database from the Brazilian Information System about Mortality and Census of the year 2000 and 2010 was used to estimate negative binomial models of homicide levels controlling for socioeconomic, demographic and geographic factors. Findings show that unemployment and income inequality affect homicides levels and that the effect of the former is more pronounced compared to the latter. Moreover, the combination of income inequality and unemployment exacerbates the overall effect of deprivation on homicide levels.

Keywords: deprivation, inequality, interaction, unemployment, violence

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Authors: Ludmilla Wikkeling-Scott, Amira Karim

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Background: In a rapidly developing environment, concerns for pollution and depletion of natural resources are challenges facing global communities. A major source of waste on university campuses is the use of plastic bottles, while cost of production and processing is high. Consumer demand stimulates popularity of plastic bottle production, but researchers agree this is not a sustainable solution. This pilot study assesses plastic water bottle used and attitude towards alternatives among Emirati college students. Methods: This study was conducted in December 2016, using an anonymous self-administered survey of 17 questions. The survey included personal characteristics, plastic water bottle used, attitude towards alternative replacement and sustainability. For statistical analysis, STATA 14C was used to determine significance of association. Results: A total of 500 Emirati students (94.6% female) completed the survey. Of the students, 82.6% preferred bottled water over tap water, and 44.6% reported disposable bottled water use in their household, 42.6% purchased disposable bottled water more than twice a week, and 44.2% purchased bottled water at least once, while on campus. Students were willing to consider switching to alternative water bottle use if it was more convenient (22.54%), cost less (55.13%) or improved the taste (22.54%), while only 7.85% students would not consider any alternatives. There was a significant difference in attitude towards alternatives to water bottle use by area of study (p < 0.005). Conclusion: The UAE strives to be at the forefront of sustainable development and protecting biodiversity. However, a major challenge is the increasing amount of waste, exacerbated by the increasing consumer demand for convenience as seen in this billion-dollar industry. Plastic bottles, for all purposes, pose a serious threat to the environment and sustainable campus initiatives can help reduce the ecological footprint, improve awareness of safe alternatives and benefits to the environment.

Keywords: ecological foot print, emirati students, plastic bottle consumption, sustainable campus

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Authors: Koyar Rane

Abstract:

Nano- to submicron size particles of narrow particle size distribution of semi-conducting TiO₂, ZnO, NiO, CuO, Fe₂O₃ have been synthesized by novel hydrazine method and tested for their gas sensing, photocatalytic and bactericidal activities and the behavior found to be enhanced when the oxides in the thin film forms, that obtained in a specially built spray pyrolysis reactor. Hydrazine method is novel in the sense, say, the UV absorption edge of the white pigment grade wide band gap (~3.2eV) TiO₂ and ZnO shifted to the visible region turning into yellowish particles, indicating modification occurring the band structure. The absorption in the visible region makes these oxides visible light sensitive photocatalysis in degrading pollutants, especially the organic dyes which otherwise increase the chemical oxygen demand of the drinking water, enabling the process feasible not under the harsh energetic UV radiation regime. The electromagnetic radiations on irradiation produce electron-hole pairs Semiconductor + hν → e⁻ + h⁺ The electron-hole pairs thus produced form Reactive Oxygen Species, ROS, on the surface of the semiconductors, O₂(adsorbed)+e⁻ → O₂• - superoxide ion OH-(surface)+h⁺ →•OH - Hydroxyl radical The ROS attack the organic material and micro-organisms. Our antibacterial studies indicate the metal oxides control the Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) of drinking water which had beyond the safe level normally found in the municipal supply. Metal oxides in the thin film form show overall enhanced properties and the films are reusable. The results of the photodegradation and antibactericidal studies are discussed. Gas sensing studies too have been done to find the versatility of the multifunctional metal oxides.

Keywords: hydrazine method, visible light sensitive, photo-degradation of dyes, water/airborne pollutant

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Authors: Jian Wang, Lu Yang, Jiong Peng

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Internal circulation two-platen clamping system for injection molding machine (IMM) has many potential advantages on energy-saving. In order to estimate its properties, experiments in this paper were carried out. Displacement and pressure of the components were measured. In comparison, the model of hydraulic clamping system was established by using AMESim. The related parameters as well as the energy consumption could be calculated. According to the analysis, the hydraulic system was optimized in order to reduce the energy consumption.

Keywords: AMESim, energy-saving, injection molding machine, internal circulation

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Authors: Salmin Alshalmani, Ghazall M Benhusein, Ebtisam Alhadi Absomaha, Marwa I. Meshri, Hamdoon A. Mohammed, Jamal Mezogi

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Eight wild medicinal plants used by Libyan and growing in Al-Jebel Al-Akhdar, Libya were suspected to estimate the antioxidant activity using 2,2-Diphenyl-1-Picrylhydrazyl stable free radical (DPPH). Incidences of purple colour reduction of the DPPH by testing extracts in addition to quercetin and vitamin C as positive controls reflect its ability to scavenge free radicals. All testing plants extract showed noticeable strength as antioxidant regarding its abilities to scavenge DPPH with an especial regards to Sarcopoterium spinosum.

Keywords: antioxidant, scavenging activity, folk medicine, methanol extracts

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Authors: Ashutosh Biswas, Poonam Coushic, Kalpana Baruah, Paras Singla, A. C. Dhariwal, Pawana Murthy

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Burden of Dengue in Northern India Ashutosh Biswas, Poonam Coushic, Kalpana Baruah, Paras Singla, AC Dhariwal, Pawana Murthy. All India Institute of Medical Sciences, NVBDCP,WHO New Delhi, India Aim: This study was conducted to estimate the burden of dengue in capital region of India. Methodology:Seropositivity of Dengue for IgM Ab, NS1 Ag and IgG Ab were performed among the blood donors’ samples from blood bank, those who were coming to donate blood for the requirement of blood for the admitted patients in hospital. Blood samplles were collected through out the year to estimate seroprevalance of dengue with or without outbreak season. All the subjects were asymptomatic at the time of blood donation. Results: A total of 1558 donors were screened for the study. On the basis of inclusion/ exclusion criteria, we enrolled 1531subjects for the study.Twenty seven donors were excluded from the study, out of which 6 were detected HIV +ve, 11 were positive for HBsAg and 10 were found positive for HCV.Mean age was 30.51 ± 7.75 years.Of 1531subjects, 18 (1.18%) had a past history of typhoid fever, 28 (1.83%) had chikungunya fever, 9 (0.59%) had malaria and 43 subjects (2.81%) had a past history of symptomatic dengue infection.About 2.22% (34) of subjects were found to have sero-positive for NS1 Ag with a peak point prevalence of 7.14% in the month of October and sero-positive of IgM Ab was observed about 5.49% (84)with a peak point prevalence of 14.29% in the month of October. Sero-prevalnce of IgGwas detected in about 64.21% (983) of subjects. Conclusion: Acute asymptomatic dengue (NS1 Ag+ve) was observed in 7.14%, as the subjects were having no symptoms at the time of sampling. This group of subjects poses a potential public health threat for transmitting dengue infection through blood transfusion (TTI) in the community as evident by presence of active viral infection due to NS1Ag +VE. Therefore a policy may be implemented in the blood bank for testing NS1 Ag to look for active dengue infection for preventing dengue transmission through blood transfusion (TTI). Acute or Subacute dengue infection ( IgM Ab+ve) was observed from 5.49% to 14.29% which is a peak point prevalence in the month of October. About 64.21% of the population were immunized by natural dengue infection ( IgG Ab+ve) in theNorthern province of India. This might be helpful for implementing the dengue vaccine in a region. Blood samples in blood banks should be tested for dengue before transfusion to any other person to prevent transfusion transmitted dengue infection as we estimated upto 7.14% positivity of NS1 Ag in our study which indicates presence of dengue virus in blood donors’ samples.

Keywords: Dengue Burden, Seroprevalance, Asymptomatic dengue, Dengue transmission through blood transfusion

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Authors: S. Farzad, M. Ali Mandegari, J. F. Görgens

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The South African Sugar Industry, which has a significant impact on the national economy, is currently facing problems due to increasing energy price and low global sugar price. The available bagasse is already combusted in low-efficiency boilers of the sugar mills while bagasse is generally recognized as a promising feedstock for second generation bioethanol production. Establishment of biorefinery annexed to the existing sugar mills, as an alternative for the revitalization of sugar industry producing biofuel and electricity has been proposed and considered in this study. Since the scale is an important issue in the feasibility of the technology, this study has taken into account a typical sugar mill with 300 ton/hr sugar cane capacity. The biorefinery simulation is carried out using Aspen PlusTM V8.6, in which the sugar mill’s power and steam demand has been considered. Hence, sugar mills in South Africa can be categorized as highly efficient, efficient, and not efficient with steam consumption of 33, 40, and 60 tons of steam per ton of cane and electric power demand of 10 MW; three different scenarios are studied. The sugar cane bagasse and tops/trash are supplied to the biorefinery process and the wastes/residues (mostly lignin) from the process are burnt in the CHP plant in order to produce steam and electricity for the biorefinery and sugar mill as well. Considering the efficient sugar mill, the CHP plant has generated 5 MW surplus electric powers, but the obtained energy is not enough for self-sufficiency of the plant (Biorefinery and Sugar mill) due to lack of 34 MW heat. One of the advantages of second generation biorefinery is its low impact on the environment and carbon footprint, thus the plant should be self-sufficient in energy without using fossil fuels. For this reason, a portion of fresh bagasse should be sent to the CHP plant to meet the energy requirements. An optimization procedure was carried out to find out the appropriate portion to be burnt in the combustor. As a result, 20% of the bagasse is re-routed to the combustor which leads to 5 tons of LP Steam and 8.6 MW electric power surpluses.

Keywords: biorefinery, sugarcane bagasse, sugar mill, energy analysis, bioethanol

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Authors: Nino Paresashvili, Nino Abesadze

Abstract:

The modern world faces huge challenges. Globalization changed the socio-economic conditions of many countries. The current processes in the global environment have a different impact on countries with different cultures. However, an alleviation of poverty and improvement of living conditions is still the basic challenge for the majority of countries, because much of the population still lives under the official threshold of poverty. It is very important to stimulate youth employment. In order to prepare young people for the labour market, it is essential to provide them with the appropriate professional skills and knowledge. It is necessary to plan efficient activities for decreasing an unemployment rate and for developing the perfect mechanisms for regulation of a labour market. Such planning requires thorough study and analysis of existing reality, as well as development of corresponding mechanisms. Statistical analysis of unemployment is one of the main platforms for regulation of the labour market key mechanisms. The corresponding statistical methods should be used in the study process. Such methods are observation, gathering, grouping, and calculation of the generalized indicators. Unemployment is one of the most severe socioeconomic problems in Georgia. According to the past as well as the current statistics, unemployment rates always have been the most problematic issue to resolve for policy makers. Analytical works towards to the above-mentioned problem will be the basis for the next sustainable steps to solve the main problem. The results of the study showed that the choice of young people is not often due to their inclinations, their interests and the labour market demand. That is why the wrong professional orientation of young people in most cases leads to their unemployment. At the same time, it was shown that there are a number of professions in the labour market with a high demand because of the deficit the appropriate specialties. To achieve healthy competitiveness in youth employment, it is necessary to formulate regional employment programs with taking into account the regional infrastructure specifications.

Keywords: unemployment, analysis, methods, tendencies, regulation mechanisms

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