Search results for: non-linear regression models

Authors: Aldin Justin Sundararaj, Austin Lord Tennyson, Divya Jose, A. N. Subash

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Blast waves are generated due to the explosions of high energy materials. An explosion yielding a blast wave has the potential to cause severe damage to buildings and its personnel. In order to understand the physics of effects of blast pressure on buildings, studies in the shock tube on generic configurations are carried out at various pressures on discrete models. The strength of shock wave is systematically varied by using different driver gases and diaphragm thickness. The basic material of the diaphragm is Aluminum. To simulate the effect of shock waves on discrete models a shock tube was used. Generic models selected for this study are suitably scaled cylinder, cone and cubical blocks. The experiments were carried out with 2mm diaphragm with burst pressure ranging from 28 to 31 bar. Numerical analysis was carried out over these discrete models. A 3D model of shock-tube with different discrete models inside the tube was used for CFD computation. It was found that cone has dissipated most of the shock pressure compared to cylinder and cubical block. The robustness and the accuracy of the numerical model were validation with the analytical and experimental data.

Keywords: shock wave, blast wave, discrete models, shock tube

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Authors: Wenbo Du, Xiaomei Ma

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With the empowerment of Cognitive Diagnostic Assessment (CDA), various domains of language testing and assessment have been investigated to dig out more diagnostic information. What is noticeable is that most of the extant empirical CDA-based research puts much emphasis on individual-level diagnostic purpose with very few concerned about learners’ group-level performance. Even though the personalized diagnostic feedback is the unique feature that differentiates CDA from other assessment tools, group-level diagnostic information cannot be overlooked in that it might be more practical in classroom setting. Additionally, the group-level diagnostic information obtained via current CDA always results in a “flat pattern”, that is, the mastery/non-mastery of all tested skills accounts for the two highest proportion. In that case, the outcome does not bring too much benefits than the original total score. To address these issues, the present study attempts to apply cluster analysis for group classification and quantile regression analysis to pinpoint learners’ performance at different proficiency levels (beginner, intermediate and advanced) thus to enhance the interpretation of the CDA results extracted from a group of EFL learners’ reading performance on a diagnostic reading test designed by PELDiaG research team from a key university in China. The results show that EM method in cluster analysis yield more appropriate classification results than that of CDA, and quantile regression analysis does picture more insightful characteristics of learners with different reading proficiencies. The findings are helpful and practical for instructors to refine EFL reading curriculum and instructional plan tailored based on the group classification results and quantile regression analysis. Meanwhile, these innovative statistical methods could also make up the deficiencies of CDA and push forward the development of language testing and assessment in the future.

Keywords: cognitive diagnostic assessment, diagnostic feedback, EFL reading, quantile regression

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Authors: Sajana Suwal, Ganesh R. Nhemafuki

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Evaluation of ground response under earthquake shaking is crucial in geotechnical earthquake engineering. Damage due to seismic excitation is mainly correlated to local geological and geotechnical conditions. It is evident from the past earthquakes (e.g. 1906 San Francisco, USA, 1923 Kanto, Japan) that the local geology has strong influence on amplitude and duration of ground motions. Since then significant studies has been conducted on ground motion amplification revealing the importance of influence of local geology on ground. Observations from the damaging earthquakes (e.g. Nigata and San Francisco, 1964; Irpinia, 1980; Mexico, 1985; Kobe, 1995; L’Aquila, 2009) divulged that non-uniform damage pattern, particularly in soft fluvio-lacustrine deposit is due to the local amplification of seismic ground motion. Non-uniform damage patterns are also observed in Kathmandu Valley during 1934 Bihar Nepal earthquake and recent 2015 Gorkha earthquake seemingly due to the modification of earthquake ground motion parameters. In this study, site effects resulting from amplification of soft soil in Kathmandu are presented. A large amount of subsoil data was collected and used for defining the appropriate subsoil model for the Kathamandu valley. A comparative study of one-dimensional total-stress equivalent linear and non-linear site response is performed using four strong ground motions for six sites of Kathmandu valley. In general, one-dimensional (1D) site-response analysis involves the excitation of a soil profile using the horizontal component and calculating the response at individual soil layers. In the present study, both equivalent linear and non-linear site response analyses were conducted using the computer program DEEPSOIL. The results show that there is no significant deviation between equivalent linear and non-linear site response models until the maximum strain reaches to 0.06-0.1%. Overall, it is clearly observed from the results that non-linear site response model perform better as compared to equivalent linear model. However, the significant deviation between two models is resulted from other influencing factors such as assumptions made in 1D site response, lack of accurate values of shear wave velocity and nonlinear properties of the soil deposit. The results are also presented in terms of amplification factors which are predicted to be around four times more in case of non-linear analysis as compared to equivalent linear analysis. Hence, the nonlinear behavior of soil prevails the urgent need of study of dynamic characteristics of the soft soil deposit that can specifically represent the site-specific design spectra for the Kathmandu valley for building resilient structures from future damaging earthquakes.

Keywords: deep soil, equivalent linear analysis, non-linear analysis, site response

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Authors: Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.

Keywords: big data, k-NN, machine learning, traffic speed prediction

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Authors: Andrea Ghermandi

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Natural treatment systems such as constructed wetlands and waste stabilization ponds are increasingly used to treat water and wastewater from a variety of sources, including stormwater and polluted surface water. The provision of ancillary benefits in the form of cultural ecosystem services makes these systems unique among water and wastewater treatment technologies and greatly contributes to determine their potential role in promoting sustainable water management practices. A quantitative analysis of these benefits, however, has been lacking in the literature. Here, a critical assessment of the recreational and educational benefits in natural treatment systems is provided, which combines observed public use from a survey of managers and operators with estimated public use as obtained using geotagged photos from social media as a proxy for visitation rates. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to characterize the spatial boundaries of 273 natural treatment systems worldwide. Such boundaries are used as input for the Application Program Interfaces (APIs) of two popular photo-sharing websites (Flickr and Panoramio) in order to derive the number of photo-user-days, i.e., the number of yearly visits by individual photo users in each site. The adequateness and predictive power of four univariate calibration models using the crowdsourced data as a proxy for visitation are evaluated. A high correlation is found between photo-user-days and observed annual visitors (Pearson's r = 0.811; p-value < 0.001; N = 62). Standardized Major Axis (SMA) regression is found to outperform Ordinary Least Squares regression and count data models in terms of predictive power insofar as standard verification statistics – such as the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP), the mean absolute error of prediction (MAEP), the reduction of error (RE), and the coefficient of efficiency (CE) – are concerned. The SMA regression model is used to estimate the intensity of public use in all 273 natural treatment systems. System type, influent water quality, and area are found to statistically affect public use, consistently with a priori expectations. Publicly available information regarding the home location of the sampled visitors is derived from their social media profiles and used to infer the distance they are willing to travel to visit the natural treatment systems in the database. Such information is analyzed using the travel cost method to derive monetary estimates of the recreational benefits of the investigated natural treatment systems. Overall, the findings confirm the opportunities arising from an integrated design and management of natural treatment systems, which combines the objectives of water quality enhancement and provision of cultural ecosystem services through public use in a multi-functional approach and compatibly with the need to protect public health.

Keywords: constructed wetlands, cultural ecosystem services, ecological engineering, waste stabilization ponds

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Authors: Pavan K. Rallabandi, Kailash C. Patidar

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In this paper, we present an optimization technique or a learning algorithm using the hybrid architecture by combining the most popular sequence recognition models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Hidden Markov models (HMMs). In order to improve the sequence or pattern recognition/ classification performance by applying a hybrid/neural symbolic approach, a gradient descent learning algorithm is developed using the Real Time Recurrent Learning of Recurrent Neural Network for processing the knowledge represented in trained Hidden Markov Models. The developed hybrid algorithm is implemented on automata theory as a sample test beds and the performance of the designed algorithm is demonstrated and evaluated on learning the deterministic finite state automata.

Keywords: hybrid systems, hidden markov models, recurrent neural networks, deterministic finite state automata

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Authors: Tahir Mehmood, Pennung Warnitchai

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Simplified static analysis procedures such Nonlinear Static Procedure (NSP) are gaining popularity for the seismic evaluation of buildings. However, these simplified procedures accounts only for the seismic responses of the fundamental vibration mode of the structure. Some other procedures which can take into account the higher modes of vibration, lack in accuracy to determine the component responses. Hence, such procedures are not suitable for evaluating the structures where many vibration modes may participate significantly or where component responses are needed to be evaluated. Moreover, these procedures were found to either computationally expensive or tedious to obtain individual component responses. In this paper, a simplified but accurate procedure is studied. It is called the Uncoupled Modal Response History Analysis (UMRHA) procedure. In this procedure, the nonlinear response of each vibration mode is first computed, and they are later on combined into the total response of the structure. The responses of four tall buildings are computed by this simplified UMRHA procedure and compared with those obtained from the NLRHA procedure. The comparison shows that the UMRHA procedure is able to accurately compute the global responses, i.e., story shears and story overturning moments, floor accelerations and inter-story drifts as well as the component level responses of these tall buildings with heights varying from 20 to 44 stories. The required computational effort is also extremely low compared to that of the Nonlinear Response History Analysis (NLRHA) procedure.

Keywords: higher mode effects, seismic evaluation procedure, tall buildings, component responses

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Authors: Chandra Mukherjee

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The prevalent knowledge of the biological systems is based on the standard scientific perception of natural equilibrium, determination and predictability. Recently, a rethinking of concepts was presented and a new scientific perspective emerged that involves complexity theory with deterministic chaos theory, nonlinear dynamics and theory of fractals. The unpredictability of the chaotic processes probably would change our understanding of diseases and their management. The mathematical definition of chaos is defined by deterministic behavior with irregular patterns that obey mathematical equations which are critically dependent on initial conditions. The chaos theory is the branch of sciences with an interest in nonlinear dynamics, fractals, bifurcations, periodic oscillations and complexity. Recently, the biomedical interest for this scientific field made these mathematical concepts available to medical researchers and practitioners. Any biological network system is considered to have a nominal state, which is recognized as a homeostatic state. In reality, the different physiological systems are not under normal conditions in a stable state of homeostatic balance, but they are in a dynamically stable state with a chaotic behavior and complexity. Biological systems like heart rhythm and brain electrical activity are dynamical systems that can be classified as chaotic systems with sensitive dependence on initial conditions. In biological systems, the state of a disease is characterized by a loss of the complexity and chaotic behavior, and by the presence of pathological periodicity and regulatory behavior. The failure or the collapse of nonlinear dynamics is an indication of disease rather than a characteristic of health.

Keywords: HRV, HRVI, LF, HF, DII

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Authors: Ghada Soltane

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The objective of this study was to identify factors impacting supply chain collaboration. a quantitative study was carried out on a sample of 84 Tunisian industrial companies. To verify the research hypotheses and test the direct effect of these factors on supply chain collaboration a multiple regression method was used using SPSS 26 software. The results show that there are four factors direct effects that affect supply chain collaboration in a meaningful and positive way, including: trust, engagement, information sharing and information quality

Keywords: supply chain collaboration, factors of collaboration, principal component analysis, multiple regression

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Authors: R. B. Knudsen, O. T. Rasmussen, R. A. Alphinas

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The reason for conducting this research is to develop an algorithm that is capable of classifying news articles from the automobile industry, according to the competitive actions that they entail, with the use of Text Mining (TM) methods. It is needed to test how to properly preprocess the data for this research by preparing pipelines which fits each algorithm the best. The pipelines are tested along with nine different classification algorithms in the realm of regression, support vector machines, and neural networks. Preliminary testing for identifying the optimal pipelines and algorithms resulted in the selection of two algorithms with two different pipelines. The two algorithms are Logistic Regression (LR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). These algorithms are optimized further, where several parameters of each algorithm are tested. The best result is achieved with the ANN. The final model yields an accuracy of 0.79, a precision of 0.80, a recall of 0.78, and an F1 score of 0.76. By removing three of the classes that created noise, the final algorithm is capable of reaching an accuracy of 94%.

Keywords: Artificial Neural network, Competitive dynamics, Logistic Regression, Text classification, Text mining

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Authors: Abdallah H. Ramini, Alwathiqbellah I. Ibrahim, Mohammad I. Younis

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We investigate experimentally and theoretically the dynamics of a capacitive resonator under mixed frequency excitation of two AC harmonic signals. The resonator is composed of a proof mass suspended by two cantilever beams. Experimental measurements are conducted using a laser Doppler Vibrometer to reveal the interesting dynamics of the system when subjected to two-source excitation. A nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom model is used for the theoretical investigation. The results reveal combination resonances of additive and subtractive type, which are shown to be promising to increase the bandwidth of the resonator near primary resonance frequency. Our results also demonstrate the ability to shift the combination resonances to much lower or much higher frequency ranges. We also demonstrate the dynamic pull-in instability under mixed frequency excitation.

Keywords: electrostatically actuated resonator, multi-frequency excitation, nonlinear dynamics, AC harmonic signals

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Authors: Farrukh Javed, Krzysztof Podgórski

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We propose a new model that accounts for the asymmetric response of volatility to positive ('good news') and negative ('bad news') shocks in economic time series the so-called leverage effect. In the past, asymmetric powers of errors in the conditionally heteroskedastic models have been used to capture this effect. Our model is using the gamma difference representation of the generalized Laplace distributions that efficiently models the asymmetry. It has one additional natural parameter, the shape, that is used instead of power in the asymmetric power models to capture the strength of a long-lasting effect of shocks. Some fundamental properties of the model are provided including the formula for covariances and an explicit form for the conditional distribution of 'bad' and 'good' news processes given the past the property that is important for the statistical fitting of the model. Relevant features of volatility models are illustrated using S&P 500 historical data.

Keywords: heavy tails, volatility clustering, generalized asymmetric laplace distribution, leverage effect, conditional heteroskedasticity, asymmetric power volatility, GARCH models

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Authors: Abdulatif Abdusalam, Mohamed Shaban

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In this paper, we consider the nonlinear pulse propagation through a nonuniform birefringent fiber Bragg grating (FBG) whose index modulation depth varies along the propagation direction. Here, the pulse propagation is governed by the nonlinear birefringent coupled mode (NLBCM) equations. To form the Bragg soliton outside the photonic bandgap (PBG), the NLBCM equations are reduced to the well known NLS type equation by multiple scale analysis. As we consider the pulse propagation in a nonuniform FBG, the pulse propagation outside the PBG is governed by inhomogeneous NLS (INLS) rather than NLS. We, then, discuss the formation of soliton in the FBG known as Bragg soliton whose central frequency lies outside but close to the PBG of the grating structure. Further, we discuss Bragg soliton compression due to a delicate balance between the SPM and the varying grating induced dispersion. In addition, Bragg soliton collision, Bragg soliton switching and possible logic gates have also been discussed.

Keywords: Bragg grating, non uniform fiber, non linear pulse

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Authors: Mokhtar Kouki Inès Rekik

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This paper focuses on the assessment of the air pollution and morbidity relationship in Tunisia. Air pollution is measured by ozone air concentration and the morbidity is measured by the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days during the 2-week period prior to the interview. Socioeconomic data are also collected in order to adjust for any confounding covariates. Our sample is composed by 407 Tunisian respondents; 44.7% are women, the average age is 35.2, near 69% are living in a house built after the 1980, and 27.8% have reported at least one day of respiratory-related restricted activity. The model consists on the regression of the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days on the air quality measure and the socioeconomic covariates. In order to correct for zero-inflation and heterogeneity, we estimate several models (Poisson, Negative binomial, Zero inflated Poisson, Poisson hurdle, Negative binomial hurdle and finite mixture Poisson models). Bootstrapping and post-stratification techniques are used in order to correct for any sample bias. According to the Akaike information criteria, the hurdle negative binomial model has the greatest goodness of fit. The main result indicates that, after adjusting for socioeconomic data, the ozone concentration increases the probability of positive number of restricted activity days.

Keywords: bootstrapping, hurdle negbin model, overdispersion, ozone concentration, respiratory-related restricted activity days

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Authors: John Adebayo Oloyhede

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This paper examines effect of financial liberalization on the stability of the demand for money function and its implication for exchange rate behaviour of three African countries. As the demand for money function is regarded as one of the two main building blocks of most exchange rate determination models, the other being purchasing power parity, its stability is required for the monetary models of exchange rate determination to hold. To what extent has the liberalisation policy of these countries, for instance liberalised interest rate, affected the demand for money function and what has been the consequence on the validity and relevance of floating exchange rate models? The study adopts the Autoregressive Instrumental Package (AIV) of multiple regression technique and followed the Almon Polynomial procedure with zero-end constraint. Data for the period 1986 to 2011 were drawn from three developing countries of Africa, namely: Gambia, Ghana and Nigeria, which did not only start the liberalization and floating system almost at the same period but share similar and diverse economic and financial structures. Its findings show that the demand for money was a stable function of income and interest rate at home and abroad. Other factors such as exchange rate and foreign interest rate exerted some significant effect on domestic money demand. The short-run and long-run elasticity with respect to income, interest rates, expected inflation rate and exchange rate expectation are not greater than zero. This evidence conforms to some extent to the expected behaviour of the domestic money function and underscores its ability to serve as good building block or assumption of the monetary model of exchange rate determination. This will, therefore, assist appropriate monetary authorities in the design and implementation of further financial liberalization policy packages in developing countries.

Keywords: financial liberalisation, exchange rates, demand for money, developing economies

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Authors: John Paul Q. Tomas, Mark Wilson L. de los Reyes, Kirsten Joyce P. Vasquez

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The most frequent type of fracture is a wrist fracture, which often makes it difficult for medical professionals to find and locate. In this study, fractures in wrist x-ray pictures were located and identified using deep learning and computer vision. The researchers used image filtering, masking, morphological operations, and data augmentation for the image preprocessing and trained the RetinaNet and Faster R-CNN models with ResNet50 backbones and Adam optimizers separately for each image filtering technique and projection. The RetinaNet model with Anisotropic Diffusion Smoothing filter trained with 50 epochs has obtained the greatest accuracy of 99.14%, precision of 100%, sensitivity/recall of 98.41%, specificity of 100%, and an IoU score of 56.44% for the Posteroanterior projection utilizing augmented data. For the Lateral projection using augmented data, the RetinaNet model with an Anisotropic Diffusion filter trained with 50 epochs has produced the highest accuracy of 98.40%, precision of 98.36%, sensitivity/recall of 98.36%, specificity of 98.43%, and an IoU score of 58.69%. When comparing the test results of the different individual projections, models, and image filtering techniques, the Anisotropic Diffusion filter trained with 50 epochs has produced the best classification and regression scores for both projections.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Computer Vision, Wrist Fracture, Deep Learning

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Authors: Minttu Laukkanen, Janne Huiskonen

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This study investigates the sharing economy business models as examples of the sustainable business models. The aim is to contribute to the limited literature on sharing economy in connection with sustainable business models by explaining sharing economy business models value capturing. Specifically, this research answers the following question: How business model choices affect captured sustainable value? A multiple case study approach is applied in this study. Twenty different successful sharing economy business models focusing on consumer business and covering four main areas, accommodation, mobility, food, and consumer goods, are selected for analysis. The secondary data available on companies’ websites, previous research, reports, and other public documents are used. All twenty cases are analyzed through the sharing economy business model framework and sustainable value analysis framework using qualitative data analysis. This study represents general sharing economy business model value attributes and their specifications, i.e. sustainable value propositions for different stakeholders, and further explains the sustainability impacts of different sharing economy business models through captured and uncaptured value. In conclusion, this study represents how business model choices affect sustainable value capturing through eight business model attributes identified in this study. This paper contributes to the research on sustainable business models and sharing economy by examining how business model choices affect captured sustainable value. This study highlights the importance of careful business model and sustainability impacts analyses including the triple bottom line, multiple stakeholders and value captured and uncaptured perspectives as well as sustainability trade-offs. It is not self-evident that sharing economy business models advance sustainability, and business model choices does matter.

Keywords: sharing economy, sustainable business model innovation, sustainable value, value capturing

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Authors: Manoj Reghu, Prabhu Rajagopal, C. V. Krishnamurthy, Krishnan Balasubramaniam

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A thorough understanding of guided ultrasonic wave behavior in structures is essential for the application of existing Non Destructive Evaluation (NDE) technologies, as well as for the development of new methods. However, the analysis of guided wave phenomena is challenging because of their complex dispersive and multimodal nature. Although numerical solution procedures have proven to be very useful in this regard, the increasing complexity of features and defects to be considered, as well as the desire to improve the accuracy of inspection often imposes a large computational cost. Hybrid models that combine numerical solutions for wave scattering with faster alternative methods for wave propagation have long been considered as a solution to this problem. However usually such models require modification of the base code of the solution procedure. Here we aim to develop Generic Hybrid models that can be directly applied to any two different solution procedures. With this goal in mind, a Numerical Hybrid model and an Analytical-Numerical Hybrid model has been developed. The concept and implementation of these Hybrid models are discussed in this paper.

Keywords: guided ultrasonic waves, Finite Element Method (FEM), Hybrid model

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Authors: Silvia Grassi, Stefano Schiavon, Ernestina Casiraghi, Cristina Alamprese

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Dry-cured ham is an uncooked meat product particularly appreciated for its peculiar sensory traits among which lipid component plays a key role in defining quality and, consequently, consumers’ acceptability. Usually, fat content and distribution are chemically determined by expensive, time-consuming, and destructive analyses. Moreover, different sensory techniques are applied to assess product conformity to desired standards. In this context, visual systems are getting a foothold in the meat market envisioning more reliable and time-saving assessment of food quality traits. The present work aims at developing a simple but systematic and objective visual methodology to assess the fat amount of dry-cured ham slices, in terms of total, intermuscular and intramuscular fractions. To the aim, 160 slices from 80 PDO dry-cured hams were evaluated by digital image analysis and Soxhlet extraction. RGB images were captured by a flatbed scanner, converted in grey-scale images, and segmented based on intensity histograms as well as on a multi-stage algorithm aimed at edge enhancement. The latter was performed applying the Canny algorithm, which consists of image noise reduction, calculation of the intensity gradient for each image, spurious response removal, actual thresholding on corrected images, and confirmation of strong edge boundaries. The approach allowed for the automatic calculation of total, intermuscular and intramuscular fat fractions as percentages of the total slice area. Linear regression models were run to estimate the relationships between the image analysis results and the chemical data, thus allowing for the prediction of the total, intermuscular and intramuscular fat content by the dry-cured ham images. The goodness of fit of the obtained models was confirmed in terms of coefficient of determination (R²), hypothesis testing and pattern of residuals. Good regression models have been found being 0.73, 0.82, and 0.73 the R2 values for the total fat, the sum of intermuscular and intramuscular fat and the intermuscular fraction, respectively. In conclusion, the edge enhancement visual procedure brought to a good fat segmentation making the simple visual approach for the quantification of the different fat fractions in dry-cured ham slices sufficiently simple, accurate and precise. The presented image analysis approach steers towards the development of instruments that can overcome destructive, tedious and time-consuming chemical determinations. As future perspectives, the results of the proposed image analysis methodology will be compared with those of sensory tests in order to develop a fast grading method of dry-cured hams based on fat distribution. Therefore, the system will be able not only to predict the actual fat content but it will also reflect the visual appearance of samples as perceived by consumers.

Keywords: dry-cured ham, edge detection algorithm, fat content, image analysis

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Authors: Ibrahim Elnour Abdelrahman Eltayeb

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Computational modelling is a method used to investigate joint forces during a movement. It can get high accuracy in the joint forces via subject-specific models. However, the construction of subject-specific models remains time-consuming and expensive. The purpose of this paper was to identify what alterations we can make to generic computational models to get a better estimation of the joint forces. It appraised the impact of these alterations on the accuracy of the estimated joint forces. It found different strategies of alterations: joint model, muscle model, and an optimisation problem. All these alterations affected joint contact force accuracy, so showing the potential for improving the model predictions without involving costly and time-consuming medical images.

Keywords: joint force, joint model, optimisation problem, validation

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Authors: Leah Wright, Trevor Townsend

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Mode choice models are crucial instruments in the analysis of travel behaviour. These models show the relationship between an individual’s choice of transportation mode for a given O-D pair and the individual’s socioeconomic characteristics such as household size and income level, age and/or gender, and the features of the transportation system. The most popular functional forms of these models are based on Utility-Based Choice Theory, which addresses the uncertainty in the decision-making process with the use of an error term. However, with the development of artificial intelligence, many researchers have started to take a different approach to travel demand modelling. In recent times, researchers have looked at using neural networks, fuzzy logic and rough set theory to develop improved mode choice formulas. The concept of cloud theory has recently been introduced to model decision-making under uncertainty. Unlike the previously mentioned theories, cloud theory recognises a relationship between randomness and fuzziness, two of the most common types of uncertainty. This research aims to investigate the use of cloud theory in mode choice models. This paper highlights the conceptual framework of the mode choice model using cloud theory. Merging decision-making under uncertainty and mode choice models is state of the art. The cloud theory model is expected to address the issues and concerns with the nested logit and improve the design of mode choice models and their use in travel demand.

Keywords: Cloud theory, decision-making, mode choice models, travel behaviour, uncertainty

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Authors: H. Zormati, J. Chebil, J. Bel Hadj Tahar

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Next generation wireless transmission technology (5G) is expected to support the development of channel models for higher frequency bands, so clarification of high frequency bands is the most important issue in radio propagation research for 5G, multiple urban microcellular measurements have been carried out at 60 GHz. In this paper, the collected data is uniformly analyzed with focus on the path loss (PL), the objective is to compare simulation results of some studied channel models with the purpose of testing the performance of each one.

Keywords: 5G, channel model, 60GHz channel, millimeter-wave, urban microcell

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Authors: Aref Ghafouri, Mohammad javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

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In this paper, model order reduction method is used for approximation in linear and nonlinearity aspects in some experimental data. This method can be used for obtaining offline reduced model for approximation of experimental data and can produce and follow the data and order of system and also it can match to experimental data in some frequency ratios. In this study, the method is compared in different experimental data and influence of choosing of order of the model reduction for obtaining the best and sufficient matching condition for following the data is investigated in format of imaginary and reality part of the frequency response curve and finally the effect and important parameter of number of order reduction in nonlinear experimental data is explained further.

Keywords: frequency response, order of model reduction, frequency matching condition, nonlinear experimental data

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Authors: Surinder Deswal, Mahesh Pal

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The paper investigates the potential of support vector machines based regression approach to model the mass transfer capacity of multiple plunging jets, both vertical (θ = 90°) and inclined (θ = 60°). The data set used in this study consists of four input parameters with a total of eighty eight cases. For testing, tenfold cross validation was used. Correlation coefficient values of 0.971 and 0.981 (root mean square error values of 0.0025 and 0.0020) were achieved by using polynomial and radial basis kernel functions based support vector regression respectively. Results suggest an improved performance by radial basis function in comparison to polynomial kernel based support vector machines. The estimated overall mass transfer coefficient, by both the kernel functions, is in good agreement with actual experimental values (within a scatter of ±15 %); thereby suggesting the utility of support vector machines based regression approach.

Keywords: mass transfer, multiple plunging jets, support vector machines, ecological sciences

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Authors: Dong Liu

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By sending a high-frequency probe wave and a low-frequency pump wave to a specimen, the vibroacoustic method evaluates the defect’s severity according to the modulation index of the received signal. Many studies experimentally proved the significant sensitivity of the modulation index to the tiny contact type defect. However, it has also been found that the modulation index was highly affected by the frequency of probe or pump waves. Therefore, the chirp signal has been introduced to the VAM method since it can assess multiple frequencies in a relatively short time duration, so the robustness of the VAM method could be enhanced. Consequently, the signal processing method needs to be modified accordingly. Various studies utilized different algorithms or combinations of algorithms for processing the VAM signal method by chirp excitation. These signal process methods were compared and used for processing a VAM signal acquired from the steel samples.

Keywords: vibroacoustic modulation, nonlinear acoustic modulation, nonlinear acoustic NDT&E, signal processing, structural health monitoring

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Authors: P. Selyshchev

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Construction materials for nuclear facilities are operated under extreme thermal and radiation conditions. First of all, they are nuclear fuel, fuel assemblies, and reactor vessel. It places high demands on the control of their state, stability of their state, and their operating conditions. An irradiated material is a typical example of an open non-equilibrium system with nonlinear feedbacks between its elements. Fluxes of energy, matter and entropy maintain states which are far away from thermal equilibrium. The links that arise under irradiation are inherently nonlinear. They form the mechanisms of feed-backs that can lead to instability. Due to this instability the temperature of the sample, heat transfer, and the defect density can exceed the steady-state value in several times. This can lead to change of typical operation and an accident. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account the thermal instability to avoid the emergency situation. The point is that non-thermal energy can be accumulated in materials because irradiation produces defects (first of all these are vacancies and interstitial atoms), which are metastable. The stored energy is about energy of defect formation. Thus, an annealing of the defects is accompanied by releasing of non-thermal stored energy into thermal one. Temperature of the material grows. Increase of temperature results in acceleration of defect annealing. Density of the defects drops and temperature grows more and more quickly. The positive feed-back is formed and self-reinforcing annealing of radiation defects develops. To describe these phenomena a theoretical approach to thermal instability is developed via formalism of complex systems. We consider system of nonlinear differential equations for different components of microstructure and temperature. The qualitative analysis of this non-linear dynamical system is carried out. Conditions for development of instability have been obtained. Points of bifurcation have been found. Convenient way to represent obtained results is a set of phase portraits. It has been shown that different regimes of material state under irradiation can develop. Thus degradation of irradiated material can be limited by means of choice appropriate kind of evolution of materials under irradiation.

Keywords: irradiation, material, non-equilibrium state, nonlinear feed-back, thermal instability

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Authors: P. Mounnarath, U. Schmitz, Ch. Zhang

Abstract:

Fragility analysis is an effective tool for the seismic vulnerability assessment of civil structures in the last several years. The design of the expansion joints according to various bridge design codes is almost inconsistent, and only a few studies have focused on this problem so far. In this study, the influence of the expansion joint clearances between the girder ends and the abutment backwalls on the seismic fragility assessment of continuous integral bridge frames is investigated. The gaps (ranging from 60 mm, 150 mm, 250 mm and 350 mm) are designed by following two different bridge design code specifications, namely, Caltrans and Eurocode 8-2. Five bridge models are analyzed and compared. The first bridge model serves as a reference. This model uses three-dimensional reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements with simplified supports at both ends of the girder. The other four models also employ reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements but include the abutment backfill stiffness and four different gap values. The nonlinear time history analysis is performed. The artificial ground motion sets, which have the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) ranging from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with an increment of 0.05 g, are taken as input. The soil-structure interaction and the P-Δ effects are also included in the analysis. The component fragility curves in terms of the curvature ductility demand to the capacity ratio of the piers and the displacement demand to the capacity ratio of the abutment sliding bearings are established and compared. The system fragility curves are then obtained by combining the component fragility curves. Our results show that in the component fragility analysis, the reference bridge model exhibits a severe vulnerability compared to that of other sophisticated bridge models for all damage states. In the system fragility analysis, the reference curves illustrate a smaller damage probability in the earlier PGA ranges for the first three damage states, they then show a higher fragility compared to other curves in the larger PGA levels. In the fourth damage state, the reference curve has the smallest vulnerability. In both the component and the system fragility analysis, the same trend is found that the bridge models with smaller clearances exhibit a smaller fragility compared to that with larger openings. However, the bridge model with a maximum clearance still induces a minimum pounding force effect.

Keywords: expansion joint clearance, fiber beam-column element, fragility assessment, time history analysis

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Authors: Bry X., Trottier C., Mortier F., Cornu G., Verron T.

Abstract:

We address component-based regularization of a Multivariate Generalized Linear Model (MGLM). A set of random responses Y is assumed to depend, through a GLM, on a set X of explanatory variables, as well as on a set T of additional covariates. X is partitioned into R conceptually homogeneous blocks X1, ... , XR , viewed as explanatory themes. Variables in each Xr are assumed many and redundant. Thus, Generalised Linear Regression (GLR) demands regularization with respect to each Xr. By contrast, variables in T are assumed selected so as to demand no regularization. Regularization is performed searching each Xr for an appropriate number of orthogonal components that both contribute to model Y and capture relevant structural information in Xr. We propose a very general criterion to measure structural relevance (SR) of a component in a block, and show how to take SR into account within a Fisher-scoring-type algorithm in order to estimate the model. We show how to deal with mixed-type explanatory variables. The method, named THEME-SCGLR, is tested on simulated data.

Keywords: Component-Model, Fisher Scoring Algorithm, GLM, PLS Regression, SCGLR, SEER, THEME

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Authors: Xu Du, Aparna S. Varde

Abstract:

In this research, we propose to conduct diagnostic and predictive analysis about the key factors and consequences of urban population relocation. To achieve this goal, urban simulation models extract the urban development trends as land use change patterns from a variety of data sources. The results are treated as part of urban big data with other information such as population change and economic conditions. Multiple data mining methods are deployed on this data to analyze nonlinear relationships between parameters. The result determines the driving force of population relocation with respect to urban sprawl and urban sustainability and their related parameters. Experiments so far reveal that data mining methods discover useful knowledge from the multicity urban data. This work sets the stage for developing a comprehensive urban simulation model for catering to specific questions by targeted users. It contributes towards achieving sustainability as a whole.

Keywords: data mining, environmental modeling, sustainability, urban planning

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Authors: Esra Zengin, Sinan Akkar

Abstract:

Reliable and accurate prediction of nonlinear structural response requires specification of appropriate earthquake ground motions to be used in nonlinear time history analysis. The current research has mainly focused on selection and manipulation of real earthquake records that can be seen as the most critical step in the performance based seismic design and assessment of the structures. Utilizing amplitude scaled ground motions that matches with the target spectra is commonly used technique for the estimation of nonlinear structural response. Representative ground motion ensembles are selected to match target spectrum such as scenario-based spectrum derived from ground motion prediction equations, Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS), Conditional Mean Spectrum (CMS) or Conditional Spectrum (CS). Different sets of criteria exist among those developed methodologies to select and scale ground motions with the objective of obtaining robust estimation of the structural performance. This study presents ground motion selection and scaling procedure that considers the spectral variability at target demand with the level of ground motion dispersion. The proposed methodology provides a set of ground motions whose response spectra match target median and corresponding variance within a specified period interval. The efficient and simple algorithm is used to assemble the ground motion sets. The scaling stage is based on the minimization of the error between scaled median and the target spectra where the dispersion of the earthquake shaking is preserved along the period interval. The impact of the spectral variability on nonlinear response distribution is investigated at the level of inelastic single degree of freedom systems. In order to see the effect of different selection and scaling methodologies on fragility curve estimations, results are compared with those obtained by CMS-based scaling methodology. The variability in fragility curves due to the consideration of dispersion in ground motion selection process is also examined.

Keywords: ground motion selection, scaling, uncertainty, fragility curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 575