Search results for: crop modelling

Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

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In recent years, climate change has become a major threat and has been widely documented in the geographic distribution of many plant species. However, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of ecologically vulnerable medicinal species remain largely unknown. The identification of a suitable habitat for a species under climate change scenario is a significant step towards the mitigation of biodiversity decline. The study, therefore, aims to predict the impact of current, and future climatic scenarios on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica across the northern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. The future projections were made for the year 2050 and 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) using 56 species occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic predictors from the BCC-CSM1.1 model of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 5th assessment. The bioclimatic variables were minimised to a smaller number of variables after a multicollinearity test, and their contributions were assessed using jackknife test. The AUC value of 0.956 ± 0.023 indicates that the model performs with excellent accuracy. The study identified that temperature seasonality (39.5 ± 3.1%), isothermality (19.2 ± 1.6%), and annual precipitation (12.7 ± 1.7%) would be the major influencing variables in the current and future distribution. The model predicted 10.5% (19318.7 sq. km) of the study area as moderately to very highly suitable, while 82.60% (151904 sq. km) of the study area was identified as ‘unsuitable’ or ‘very low suitable’. Our predictions of climate change impact on habitat suitability suggest that there will be a drastic reduction in the suitability by 5.29% and 5.69% under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Finally, the results signify that the model might be an effective tool for biodiversity protection, ecosystem management, and species re-habitation planning under future climate change scenarios.

Keywords: Garcinia Indica, maximum entropy modelling, climate change, MaxEnt, Western Ghats, medicinal plants

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Authors: Aaron Herve Mbwe Mbissik, Lotfi Khiari, Otmane Raji, Abdellatif Elghali, Abdelkarim Lajili, Muhammad Ouabid, Martin Jemo, Jean-Louis Bodinier

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Potassium (K) is an essential macronutrient for plant growth, helping to regulate several physiological and metabolic processes. Evaporite-related potash salts, mainly sylvite minerals (K chloride or KCl), are the principal source of K for the fertilizer industry. However, due to the high potash-supply risk associated with its considerable price fluctuations and uneven geographic distribution for most agriculture-based developing countries, the development of alternative sources of fertilizer K is imperative to maintain adequate crop yield, reduce yield gaps, and food security. Alkaline Igneous rocks containing significant K-rich silicate minerals such as K feldspar are increasingly seen as the best alternative available. However, these rocks may require to be hydrothermally treatment to enhance the release of potassium. In this study, we evaluate the fertilizing capacity of raw and hydrothermally treated K-bearing silicate rocks from different areas in Morocco. The effectiveness of rock powders was tested in a greenhouse experiment using ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum) by comparing them to a control (no K added) and to a conventional fertilizer (muriate of potash: MOP or KCl). The trial was conducted in a randomized complete block design with three replications, and plants were grown on K-depleted soils for three growing cycles. To achieve our objective, in addition to the analysis of the muriate response curve and the different biomasses, we also examined three necessary coefficients, namely: the K uptake, then apparent K recovery (AKR), and the relative K efficiency (RKE). The results showed that based on the optimum economic rate of MOP (230 kg.K.ha⁻¹) and the optimum yield (44 000 kg.K.ha⁻¹), the efficiency of K silicate rocks was as high as that of MOP. Although the plants took up only half of the K supplied by the powdered rock, the hydrothermal material was found to be satisfactory, with a biomass value reaching the optimum economic limit until the second crop cycle. In comparison, the AKR of the MOP (98.6%) and its RKE in the 1st cycle were higher than our materials: 39% and 38%, respectively. Therefore, the raw and hydrothermal materials mixture could be an appropriate solution for long-term agronomic use based on the obtained results.

Keywords: K-uptake, AKR, RKE, K-bearing silicate rock, MOP

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Authors: R. Islam, M. A. Haque, K. H. Kabir

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A supervised trail was set with brinjal at research field, Entomology Division, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Joydebpur, Gazipur to determine the residue of Carbofuran in soil and fruit samples at different days after application (DAA) of Furadan 5 G @ 2 kg AI/ ha. Field collected samples were analyzed by GCMS-EI. Results of the experiment indicated the presence of Carbofuran residue up to 60 DAA in soil samples and 25 DAA in brinjal fruit samples. In case of soil samples, the detected residues were 7.04, 2.78, 0.79, 0.43, 0.12, 0.06 and 0.05 ppm at 0, 2, 5, 10, 20, 30 and 60 DAA respectively. On the other hand, in brinjal fruit samples Carbofuran residues were 0.005 ppm, 0.095 ppm, 0.084 ppm, 0.065 ppm, 0.063 ppm, 0.056 ppm, 0.050 ppm, 0.030 ppm and 0.016 ppm at 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 15 and 25-DAA, respectively. None of this amount was above the recommended MRL (0.1 mg / kg crop) of Carborufan for agricultural crops.

Keywords: brinjal, carbofuran, MRL, residue

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Authors: Lokesh Harshe

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The building construction sector is using 36% of global energy consumption with 39% of CO₂ emission. Professionals in the Built Environment Sector have long been aware of the industry’s contribution towards CO₂ emissions and are now moving towards more sustainable practices. As a result of this, many organizations have introduced rating systems to address the issue of global warming in the construction sector by ranking construction projects based on sustainability parameters. The pre-construction phase of any building project is the most essential time to make decisions for addressing the sustainability aspects. Traditionally, it is very difficult to collect data from different stakeholders and bring it together to form a decision based on factual data to perform sustainability analyses in the pre-construction phase. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is the solution where one single model is the result of the collaborative approach of BIM processes where all the information is shared, extracted, communicated, and stored on a single platform that everyone can access and make decisions based on real-time data. The focus of this research is on the Indian Green Rating System IGBC® with the objective of understanding IGBC® requirements and developing a framework to create the relationship between the rating processes and BIM. A Hypothetical (Architectural) model of a hostel building is developed using AutoCAD 2019 & Revit Arch. 2019, where the framework is applied to generate results on sustainability analysis using Green Building Studio (GBS) and Revit Add-ins. The results of any sustainability analysis are generated within a fraction of a minute, which is very quick in comparison with traditional sustainability analysis. This may save a considerable amount of time as well as cost. The future scope is to integrate Architectural, Structural, and MEP Models to perform accurate sustainability analyses with inputs from industry professionals working on real-life Green BIM projects.

Keywords: sustainability analyses, BIM, green rating systems, IGBC®, LEED

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Authors: Marcel Meinhardt, Manfred Keuser, Thomas Braml

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Cracking of reinforced concrete is a complex phenomenon induced by direct loads or restraints affecting reinforced concrete structures as soon as the tensile strength of the concrete is exceeded. Hence it is important to predict where cracks will be located and how they will propagate. The bond theory and the crack formulas in the actual design codes, for example, DIN EN 1992-1-1, are all based on the assumption that the reinforcement bars are embedded in homogeneous concrete without taking into account the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress situation. However, it can often be observed that real structures such as walls, slabs or beams show a crack spacing that is orientated to the transverse reinforcement bars or to the stirrups. In most Finite Element Analysis studies, the smeared crack approach is used for crack prediction. The disadvantage of this model is that the typical strain localization of a crack on element level can’t be seen. The crack propagation in concrete is a discontinuous process characterized by different factors such as the initial random distribution of defects or the scatter of material properties. Such behavior presupposes the elaboration of adequate models and methods of simulation because traditional mechanical approaches deal mainly with average material parameters. This paper concerned with the modelling of the initiation and the propagation of cracks in reinforced concrete structures considering the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress distribution in reinforced concrete (R/C) beams/plates in bending action. Therefore, a parameter study was carried out to investigate: (I) the influence of the transversal reinforcement to the stress distribution in concrete in bending mode and (II) the crack initiation in dependence of the diameter and distance of the transversal reinforcement to each other. The numerical investigations on the crack initiation and propagation were carried out with a 2D reinforced concrete structure subjected to quasi static loading and given boundary conditions. To model the uncertainty in the tensile strength of concrete in the Finite Element Analysis correlated normally and lognormally distributed random filed with different correlation lengths were generated. The paper also presents and discuss different methods to generate random fields, e.g. the Covariance Matrix Decomposition Method. For all computations, a plastic constitutive law with softening was used to model the crack initiation and the damage of the concrete in tension. It was found that the distributions of crack spacing and crack widths are highly dependent of the used random field. These distributions are validated to experimental studies on R/C panels which were carried out at the Laboratory for Structural Engineering at the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich. Also, a recommendation for parameters of the random field for realistic modelling the uncertainty of the tensile strength is given. The aim of this research was to show a method in which the localization of strains and cracks as well as the influence of transverse reinforcement on the crack initiation and propagation in Finite Element Analysis can be seen.

Keywords: crack initiation, crack modelling, crack propagation, cracks, numerical simulation, random fields, reinforced concrete, stochastic

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Arnold M. Brener, Lesbek Tashimov, Ablakim S. Muratov

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The paper deals with the special model for coagulation kernels which represents new control parameters in the Smoluchowski equation for binary aggregation. On the base of the model the new approach to evaluating aggregative stability of disperse systems has been submitted. With the help of this approach the simple estimates for aggregative stability of various types of hydrophilic nano-suspensions have been obtained.

Keywords: aggregative stability, coagulation kernels, disperse systems, mathematical model

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Authors: Aimen Saleh

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The Silurian Lower Acacus sandstone is one of the main reservoirs in North West Libya. Our aim in this study is to grasp a robust understanding of the hydrocarbon potential and distribution in the area. To date, the depositional environment of the Lower Acacus reservoir still open to discussion and contradiction. Henceforth, building three dimensional (3D) property modelling is one way to support the analysis and description of the reservoir, its properties and characterizations, so this will be of great value in this project. The 3D model integrates different data set, these incorporates well logs data, petrophysical reservoir properties and seismic data as well. The finalized depositional environment model of the Lower Acacus concludes that the area is located in a deltaic transitional depositional setting, which ranges from a wave dominated delta into tide dominated delta type. This interpretation carried out through a series of steps of model generation, core description and Formation Microresistivity Image tool (FMI) interpretation. After the analysis of the core data, the Lower Acacus layers shows a strong effect of tidal energy. Whereas these traces found imprinted in different types of sedimentary structures, for examples; presence of some crossbedding, such as herringbones structures, wavy and flaser cross beddings. In spite of recognition of some minor marine transgression events in the area, on the contrary, the coarsening upward cycles of sand and shale layers in the Lower Acacus demonstrate presence of a major regressive phase of the sea level. However, consequently, we produced a final package of this model in a complemented set of facies distribution, porosity and oil presence. And also it shows the record of the petroleum system, and the procedure of Hydrocarbon migration and accumulation. Finally, this model suggests that the area can be outlined into three main segments of hydrocarbon potential, which can be a textbook guide for future exploration and production strategies in the area.

Keywords: Acacus, Ghadames , Libya, Silurian

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Authors: Nadia Miranda Lorick, Neela Badrie, Marsha Singh

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Cassava (Manihot esculenta, Crantz) which is also known as ‘yucca’ or ‘manioc’ has been acknowledged as a millennium crop which has been utilized for food security purposes. The crop provides considerable amount of energy. The aim of the study was to assess consumer groups of both ‘fresh’ and ‘frozen’ in terms of their perceptions toward the quality and safety attributes of frozen cassava. The questionnaire included four sections: consumer demographics, consumer perceptions on quality attributes of ‘frozen’ cassava, consumer knowledge, awareness and attitudes toward food safety of ‘frozen’ cassava and consumer suggestions toward the improvement of frozen cassava. A face-to-face questionnaire was administered to 200 consumers of cassava between April and May 2016. The criteria for inclusion in the survey were that they must be 15 years and over and consumer of cassava. The sections of the questionnaire included demographics of respondents, consumer perception on quality and safety attributes of cassava and suggestions for the improvement of the value-added product. The data was analysed by descriptive and chi-square using SPSS as well as qualitative information was captured. Only 17% of respondents purchased frozen cassava and this was significantly (P<0.05) associated to income. Some (15%) of fresh cassava purchasers had never heard of frozen cassava products and 7.5% o perceived that these products were unhealthy for consumption. More than half (51.3%) of the consumers (all from the ‘fresh’ cassava group) believed that there were ‘no toxins’ within cassava. The ‘frozen’ cassava products were valued for convenience but purchasers were least satisfied with ‘value for money’ (50%), ‘product safety’ (50%) and ‘colour’ (52.9%). Cassava purchasers demonstrated highest dissatisfaction levels with the quality attribute: value for money (6.6%, 11.8%) respectively. The most predominant area outlined by respondents for frozen cassava improvement was promotion /advertising/education (23%). The ‘frozen’ cassava purchasers were ‘least satisfied’ thus most concern that clean knives and clean surface would not be used agro- processing. Fresh cassava purchasers were comparatively more knowledgeable on the potential existence of naturally occurring toxins in cassava, however with 1% respondents being able to specifically identify the toxin as ‘cyanide’. Dangerous preservatives (31%), poor hygiene (30%) and chemicals from the packaging (11%) were identified as some sources of contamination of ‘frozen’ cassava. Purchasers of frozen cassava indicated that the information on packaging label was unclear (P<0.01) when compared to ‘fresh’ cassava consumers.

Keywords: consumer satisfaction, convenience, cyanide toxin, product safety, price, label

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Authors: Bashar Mahmoud, Lee Mortimer, Michael Fairweather

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New methods have recently been introduced to improve the thermal property values of molten nitrate salts (a binary mixture of NaNO3:KNO3in 60:40 wt. %), by doping them with minute concentration of nanoparticles in the range of 0.5 to 1.5 wt. % to form the so-called: Nano-heat-transfer-fluid, apt for thermal energy transfer and storage applications. The present study aims to assess the stability of these nanofluids using the advanced computational modelling technique, Lagrangian particle tracking. A multi-phase solid-liquid model is used, where the motion of embedded nanoparticles in the suspended fluid is treated by an Euler-Lagrange hybrid scheme with fixed time stepping. This technique enables measurements of various multi-scale forces whose characteristic (length and timescales) are quite different. Two systems are considered, both consisting of 50 nm Al2O3 ceramic nanoparticles suspended in fluids of different density ratios. This includes both water (5 to 95 °C) and molten nitrate salt (220 to 500 °C) at various volume fractions ranging between 1% to 5%. Dynamic properties of both phases are coupled to the ambient temperature of the fluid suspension. The three-dimensional computational region consists of a 1μm cube and particles are homogeneously distributed across the domain. Periodic boundary conditions are enforced. The particle equations of motion are integrated using the fourth order Runge-Kutta algorithm with a very small time-step, Δts, set at 10-11 s. The implemented technique demonstrates the key dynamics of aggregated nanoparticles and this involves: Brownian motion, soft-sphere particle-particle collisions, and Derjaguin, Landau, Vervey, and Overbeek (DLVO) forces. These mechanisms are responsible for the predictive model of aggregation of nano-suspensions. An energy transport-based method of predicting the thermal conductivity of the nanofluids is also used to determine thermal properties of the suspension. The simulation results confirms the effectiveness of the technique. The values are in excellent agreement with the theoretical and experimental data obtained from similar studies. The predictions indicates the role of Brownian motion and DLVO force (represented by both the repulsive electric double layer and an attractive Van der Waals) and its influence in the level of nanoparticles agglomeration. As to the nano-aggregates formed that was found to play a key role in governing the thermal behavior of nanofluids at various particle concentration. The presentation will include a quantitative assessment of these forces and mechanisms, which would lead to conclusions about nanofluids, heat transfer performance and thermal characteristics and its potential application in solar thermal energy plants.

Keywords: thermal energy storage, molten salt, nano-fluids, multi-scale computational modelling

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Authors: Hossein Afzali

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Increasingly, decision analytic models are used to inform decisions about whether or not to publicly fund new health technologies. It is well noted that the accuracy of model predictions is strongly influenced by the appropriateness of model structuring. However, there is relatively inadequate methodological guidance surrounding this issue in guidelines developed by national funding bodies such as the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) and The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK. This presentation aims to discuss issues around model structuring within decision making with a focus on (1) the need for a transparent and evidence-based model structuring process to inform the most appropriate set of structural aspects as the base case analysis; (2) the need to characterise structural uncertainty (If there exist alternative plausible structural assumptions (or judgements), there is a need to appropriately characterise the related structural uncertainty). The presentation will provide an opportunity to share ideas and experiences on how the guidelines developed by national funding bodies address the above issues and identify areas for further improvements. First, a review and analysis of the literature and guidelines developed by PBAC and NICE will be provided. Then, it will be discussed how the issues around model structuring (including structural uncertainty) are not handled and justified in a systematic way within the decision-making process, its potential impact on the quality of public funding decisions, and how it should be presented in submissions to national funding bodies. This presentation represents a contribution to the good modelling practice within the decision-making process. Although the presentation focuses on the PBAC and NICE guidelines, the discussion can be applied more widely to many other national funding bodies that use economic evaluation to inform funding decisions but do not transparently address model structuring issues e.g. the Medical Services Advisory Committee (MSAC) in Australia or the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health.

Keywords: decision-making process, economic evaluation, good modelling practice, structural uncertainty

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Authors: Nji Queenta Ngum, Mwanza Mulunda

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Introduction Most African research reports on the frequent aflatoxin contamination of various foodstuffs, with researchers rarely specifying which of the Aspergillus species are present in these commodities. Numerous research works provide evidence of the ability of fungi to grow, thrive, and interact with other crop species and focus on the fact that these processes are largely affected by climatic variables. South Africa is a water-stressed country with high spatio-temporal rainfall variability; moreover, temperatures have been projected to rise at a rate twice the global rate. This weather pattern change may lead to crop stress encouraging mold contamination with subsequent mycotoxin production. In this study, the biodiversity and distribution of Aspergillus species with their corresponding toxins in maize from six distinct maize producing regions with different weather patterns in South Africa were investigated. Materials And Methods By applying cultural and molecular methods, a total of 1028 maize samples from six distinct agro-climatic regions were examined for contamination by the Aspergillus species while the high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method was applied to analyse the level of contamination by aflatoxins. Results About 30% of the overall maize samples were contaminated by at least one Aspergillus species. Less than 30% (28.95%) of the 228 isolates subjected to the aflatoxigenic test was found to possess at least one of the aflatoxin biosynthetic genes. Furthermore, almost 20% were found to be contaminated with aflatoxins, with mean total aflatoxin concentration levels of 64.17 ppb. Amongst the contaminated samples, 59.02% had mean total aflatoxin concentration levels above the SA regulatory limit of 20ppb for animals and 10 for human consumption. Conclusion In this study, climate variables (rainfall reduction) were found to significantly (p<0.001) influence the occurrence of the Aspergillus species (especially Aspergillus fumigatus) and the production of aflatoxin in South Africa commercial maize by maize variety, year of cultivation as well as the agro-climatic region in which the maize is cultivated. This included, amongst others, a reduction in the average annual rainfall of the preceding year to about 21.27 mm, and, as opposed to other regions whose average maximum rainfall ranged between 37.24 – 44.1 mm, resulted in a significant increase in the aflatoxin contamination of maize.

Keywords: aspergillus species, aflatoxins, diversity, drought, food safety, HPLC and PCR techniques

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Authors: Leon Mishnaevsky Jr., Gaoming Dai

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3D numerical simulations of fatigue damage of multiscale fiber reinforced polymer composites with secondary nanoclay reinforcement are carried out. Macro-micro FE models of the multiscale composites are generated automatically using Python based software. The effect of the nanoclay reinforcement (localized in the fiber/matrix interface (fiber sizing) and distributed throughout the matrix) on the crack path, damage mechanisms and fatigue behavior is investigated in numerical experiments.

Keywords: computational mechanics, fatigue, nanocomposites, composites

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Authors: Majid Aldalbahi

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In 2009, over 3.4 billion people in the world resided in urban areas as a result of rapid urban growth. This figure is estimated to increase to 6.5 billion by 2050. This urban growth phenomenon has raised challenges for many countries in both the developing and developed worlds. Urban growth is a complicated process involving the spatiotemporal changes of all socio-economic and physical components at different scales. The socio-economic components of urban growth are related to urban population growth and economic growth, while physical components of urban growth and economic growth are related to spatial expansion, land cover change and land use change which are the focus of this research. The interactions between these components are complex and no-linear. Several factors and forces cause these complex interactions including transportation and communication, internal and international migrations, public policies, high natural growth rates of urban populations and public policies. Urban growth has positive and negative consequences. The positive effects relates to planned and orderly urban growth, while negative effects relate to unplanned and scattered growth, which is called sprawl. Although urban growth is considered as necessary for sustainable urbanization, uncontrolled and rapid growth cause various problems including consumption of precious rural land resources at urban fringe, landscape alteration, traffic congestion, infrastructure pressure, and neighborhood conflicts. Traditional urban planning approaches in fast growing cities cannot accommodate the negative consequences of rapid urban growth. Microsimulation programme, and modelling techniques are effective means to provide new urban development, management and planning methods and approaches. This paper aims to use these techniques to understand and analyse the complex interactions for the case study of Riyadh city, a fast growing city in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: policy implications, urban planning, traffic congestion, urban growth, Suadi Arabia, Riyadh

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Authors: Hazel Pettifor, Charlie Wilson, David Mccollum, Oreane Edelenbosch

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Vehicle purchase is a technology adoption decision that will strongly influence future energy and emission outcomes. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide valuable insights into the medium and long terms effects of socio-economic development, technological change and climate policy. In this paper we present a unique and transparent approach for improving the behavioural representation of these models by incorporating social influence effects to more accurately represent consumer choice. This work draws together strong conceptual thinking and robust empirical evidence to introduce heterogeneous and interconnected consumers who vary in their aversion to new technologies. Focussing on vehicle choice, we conduct novel empirical research to parameterise consumer risk aversion and how this is shaped by social and cultural influences. We find robust evidence for social influence effects, and variation between countries as a function of cultural differences. We then formulate an approach to modelling social influence which is implementable in both simulation and optimisation-type models. We use two global integrated assessment models (IMAGE and MESSAGE) to analyse four scenarios that introduce social influence and cultural differences between regions. These scenarios allow us to explore the interactions between consumer preferences and social influence. We find that incorporating social influence effects into global models accelerates the early deployment of electric vehicles and stimulates more widespread deployment across adopter groups. Incorporating cultural variation leads to significant differences in deployment between culturally divergent regions such as the USA and China. Our analysis significantly extends the ability of global integrated assessment models to provide policy-relevant analysis grounded in real-world processes.

Keywords: behavioural realism, electric vehicles, social influence, vehicle choice

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Authors: Hanife Merve Öztürk, Sıdıka Dalgan

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In this project, a capacity analysis study is done at TAT A. Ş. Maret Plant. Production capacity of products which generate 80% of sales amount are determined. Obtained data entered the LEKIN Scheduling Program and we get production schedules by using heuristic methods. Besides heuristic methods, as mathematical model, disjunctive programming formulation is adapted to flexible job shop problems by adding a new constraint to find optimal schedule solution.

Keywords: scheduling, flexible job shop problem, shifting bottleneck heuristic, mathematical modelling

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Authors: Nicholas Pearce, Eun-jin Kim

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Pathologies of the cardiovascular (CV) system remain a serious and deadly health problem for human society. Computational modelling provides a relatively accessible tool for diagnosis, treatment, and research into CV disorders. However, numerical models of the CV system have largely focused on the function of the ventricles, frequently overlooking the behaviour of the atria. Furthermore, in the study of the pressure-volume relationship of the heart, which is a key diagnosis of cardiac vascular pathologies, previous works often evoke popular yet questionable time-varying elastance (TVE) method that imposes the pressure-volume relationship instead of calculating it consistently. Despite the convenience of the TVE method, there have been various indications of its limitations and the need for checking its validity in different scenarios. A model of the combined left ventricle (LV) and left atrium (LA) is presented, which consistently considers various feedback mechanisms in the heart without having to use the TVE method. Specifically, a synergistic model of the left ventricle is extended and modified to include the function of the LA. The synergy of the original model is preserved by modelling the electro-mechanical and chemical functions of the micro-scale myofiber for the LA and integrating it with the microscale and macro-organ-scale heart dynamics of the left ventricle and CV circulation. The atrioventricular node function is included and forms the conduction pathway for electrical signals between the atria and ventricle. The model reproduces the essential features of LA behaviour, such as the two-phase pressure-volume relationship and the classic figure of eight pressure-volume loops. Using this model, disorders in the internal cardiac electrical signalling are investigated by recreating the mechano-electric feedback (MEF), which is impossible where the time-varying elastance method is used. The effects of AV node block and slow conduction are then investigated in the presence of an atrial arrhythmia. It is found that electrical disorders and arrhythmia in the LA degrade the CV system by reducing the cardiac output, power, and heart rate.

Keywords: cardiovascular system, left atrium, numerical model, MEF

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Authors: Temitayo Tosin Alawiye

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Plant disease control is important in maintaining plant vigour, grain quantity, abundance of food, feed, and fibre produced by farmers all over the world. Farmers make use of different methods in controlling these diseases but one of the commonly used method is the use of chemicals. However, the continuous and excessive usages of these agrochemicals pose a danger to the environment, man and wildlife. The more the population growth the more the food security challenge which leads to more pressure on agronomic growth. Agricultural waste also known as green waste are the residues from the growing and processing of raw agricultural products such as fruits, vegetables, rice husk, corn cob, mushroom growth medium waste, coconut husk. They are widely used in land bioremediation, crop production and protection which include disease control. These agricultural wastes help the crop by improving the soil fertility, increase soil organic matter and reduce in many cases incidence and severity of disease. The objective was to review the agricultural waste that has worked effectively against certain soil-borne diseases such as Fusarium oxysporum, Pythiumspp, Rhizoctonia spp so as to help minimize the use of chemicals. Climate change is a major problem of agriculture and vice versa. Climate change and agriculture are interrelated. Change in climatic conditions is already affecting agriculture with effects unevenly distributed across the world. It will increase the risk of food insecurity for some vulnerable groups such as the poor in Sub Saharan Africa. The food security challenge will become more difficult as the world will need to produce more food estimated to feed billions of people in the near future with Africa likely to be the biggest hit. In order to surmount this hurdle, smallholder farmers in Africa must embrace climate-smart agricultural techniques and innovations which includes the use of green waste in agriculture, conservative agriculture, pasture and manure management, mulching, intercropping, etc. Training and retraining of smallholder farmers on the use of green energy to mitigate the effect of climate change should be encouraged. Policy makers, academia, researchers, donors, and farmers should pay more attention to the use of green energy as a way of reducing incidence and severity of soilborne plant diseases to solve looming food security challenges.

Keywords: agricultural waste, climate change, green energy, soil borne plant disease

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Authors: Kristina Sutiene, Lina Dapkute

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The paper investigates the current demographic trends that exert the sustainability of pension systems in most EU regions. Several drivers usually compose the demographic challenge, coming from the structure and trends of population in the country. As the case of research, three main variables of demographic risk in Lithuania have been singled out and have been used in making up the analysis. Over the last two decades, the country has presented a peculiar demographic situation characterized by pessimistic fertility trends, negative net migration rate and rising life expectancy that make the significant changes in labor-age population. This study, therefore, sets out to assess the relative impact of these risk factors both individually and in aggregate, while assuming economic trends to evolve historically. The evidence is presented using data of pension funds that operate in Lithuania and are financed by defined-contribution plans. To achieve this goal, the discrete-time pension fund’s value model is developed that reflects main operational modalities: contribution income from current participants and new entrants, pension disbursement and administrative expenses; it also fluctuates based on returns from investment activity. Age-structured Leslie population dynamics model has been integrated into the main model to describe the dynamics of fertility, migration and mortality rates upon age. Validation has concluded that Leslie model adequately fits the current population trends in Lithuania. The elasticity of pension system is examined using Loimaranta efficiency as a measure for comparison of plausible long-term developments of demographic risks. With respect to the research question, it was found that demographic risks have different levels of influence on future value of aggregated pension funds: The fertility rates have the highest importance, while mortality rates give only a minor impact. Further studies regarding the role of trying out different economic scenarios in the integrated model would be worthwhile.

Keywords: asset liability modelling, Leslie model, pension funds, population dynamics

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Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal

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Background: For the first time in 2009, India was able to generate estimates of HIV incidence (the number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic projections helped in revealing that the number of new annual HIV infections in India had declined by more than 50% during the last decade (GOI Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2010). Then, National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) planned to scale up its efforts in generating projections through epidemiological analysis and modelling by taking recent available sources of evidence such as HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS), India Census data and other critical data sets. Recently, NACO generated current round of HIV estimates-2012 through globally recommended tool “Spectrum Software” and came out with the estimates for adult HIV prevalence, annual new infections, number of people living with HIV, AIDS-related deaths and treatment needs. State level prevalence and incidence projections produced were used to project consequences of the epidemic in spectrum. In presence of HIV estimates generated at state level in India by NACO, USIAD funded PIPPSE project under the leadership of NACO undertook the estimations and projections to district level using same Spectrum software. In 2011, adult HIV prevalence in one of the high prevalent States, Maharashtra was 0.42% ahead of the national average of 0.27%. Considering the heterogeneity of HIV epidemic between districts, two districts of Maharashtra – Thane and Mumbai were selected to estimate and project the number of People-Living-with-HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), HIV-prevalence among adults and annual new HIV infections till 2017. Methodology: Inputs in spectrum included demographic data from Census of India since 1980 and sample registration system, programmatic data on ‘Alive and on ART (adult and children)’,‘Mother-Baby pairs under PPTCT’ and ‘High Risk Group (HRG)-size mapping estimates’, surveillance data from various rounds of HSS, National Family Health Survey–III, Integrated Biological and Behavioural Assessment and Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance. Major Findings: Assuming current programmatic interventions in these districts, an estimated decrease of 12% points in Thane and 31% points in Mumbai among new infections in HRGs and migrants is observed from 2011 by 2017. Conclusions: Project also validated decrease in HIV new infection among one of the high risk groups-FSWs using program cohort data since 2012 to 2016. Though there is a decrease in HIV prevalence and new infections in Thane and Mumbai, further decrease is possible if appropriate programme response, strategies and interventions are envisaged for specific target groups based on this evidence. Moreover, evidence need to be validated by other estimation/modelling techniques; and evidence can be generated for other districts of the state, where HIV prevalence is high and reliable data sources are available, to understand the epidemic within the local context.

Keywords: HIV sentinel surveillance, high risk groups, projections, new infections

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Authors: Ravi Verma

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Cryosorption pump is the best solution to achieve clean, vibration free ultra-high vacuum. Furthermore, the operation of cryosorption pump is free from the influence of electric and magnetic fields. Due to these attributes, this pump is used in the space simulation chamber to create the ultra-high vacuum. The cryosorption pump comprises of three parts (a) panel which is cooled with the help of cryogen or cryocooler, (b) an adsorbent which is used to adsorb the gas molecules, (c) an epoxy which holds the adsorbent and the panel together thereby aiding in heat transfer from adsorbent to the panel. The performance of cryosorption pump depends on the temperature of the adsorbent and hence, on the thermal conductivity of the epoxy. Therefore we have made an attempt to increase the thermal conductivity of epoxy adhesive by mixing nano-sized graphene filler particles. The thermal conductivity of epoxy-graphene composite adhesive is measured with the help of indigenously developed experimental setup in the temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K, which is generally the operating temperature range of cryosorption pump for efficiently pumping of hydrogen and helium gas. In this article, we have presented the experimental results of epoxy-graphene composite adhesive in the temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K. We have also proposed an analytical heat conduction model to find the thermal conductivity of the composite. In this case, the filler particles, such as graphene, are randomly distributed in a base matrix of epoxy. The developed model considers the complete spatial random distribution of filler particles and this distribution is explained by Binomial distribution. The results obtained by the model have been compared with the experimental results as well as with the other established models. The developed model is able to predict the thermal conductivity in both isotropic regions as well as in anisotropic region over the required temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K. Due to the non-empirical nature of the proposed model, it will be useful for the prediction of other properties of composite materials involving the filler in a base matrix. The present studies will aid in the understanding of low temperature heat transfer which in turn will be useful towards the development of high performance cryosorption pump.

Keywords: composite adhesive, computational modelling, cryosorption pump, thermal conductivity

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Authors: Cosmas Pandit Pagwiwoko, Ammar Khaled Abdelaziz Abdelsamia

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Flutter as a phenomenon of flow-induced and self-excited vibration has to be recognized considering its harmful effect on the structure especially in a stage of aircraft design. This phenomenon is also important for a wind energy harvester based on the fluttering surface due to its effective operational velocity range. This multi-physics occurrence can be presented by two governing equations in both fluid and structure simultaneously in respecting certain boundary conditions on the surface of the body. In this work, the equations are resolved separately by two distinct solvers, one-time step of each domain. The modelling and simulation of this flow-structure interaction in ANSYS show the effectiveness of this loosely coupled method in representing flutter phenomenon however the process is time-consuming for design purposes. Therefore, another technique using the same weak coupled aero-structure is proposed by using system dynamics approach. In this technique, the aerodynamic forces were calculated using singularity function for a range of frequencies and certain natural mode shapes are transformed into time domain by employing an approximation model of fraction rational function in Laplace variable. The representation of structure in a multi-degree-of-freedom coupled with a transfer function of aerodynamic forces can then be simulated in time domain on a block-diagram platform such as Simulink MATLAB. The dynamic response of flutter at certain velocity can be evaluated with another established flutter calculation in frequency domain k-method. In this method, a parameter of artificial structural damping is inserted in the equation of motion to assure the energy balance of flow and vibrating structure. The simulation in time domain is particularly interested as it enables to apply the structural non-linear factors accurately. Experimental tests on a fluttering airfoil in the wind tunnel are also conducted to validate the method.

Keywords: flutter, flow-induced vibration, flow-structure interaction, non-linear structure

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Authors: Colin O’Hare, Zili Zho, Thomas Sneddon

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The Australian superannuation system has received high praise for its participation rates and level of funding in retirement yet it is only 25 years old. In recent years, with increasing longevity and persistent lower rates of investment return, how adequate will the funds accumulated through a superannuation system be? In this paper we take Australia as a case study and build a stochastic model of accumulation and decummulation of funds and determine the expected number of years a fund may last an individual in retirement.

Keywords: component, mortality, stochastic models, superannuation

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Authors: Ayodele A. Otaiku

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Purpose: Nigeria has become the largest importer of rice in Africa and second in the world, 2015. Investigate interactions of organic rice farming on soil quality and health from bio-waste converted to biofertilizer and its environmental impact on rice crop. Methodology: Bio-wastes, poultry waste, organic agriculture wastes, wood ash mixed with microbial inoculant organisms called OBD-Plus microbes (broad spectrum) composted in anaerobic digester to OBD-biofertilizer (2010 - 2012) uses microbes to build humus and other stable carbons. Two field experiments were carried out at Badeggi, Niger state in 2011 and 2012 to evaluate the response of lowland rice production using biofertilizer. The experimental field was laid out in a strip-plot design with five treatments and three replications and at twenty-one day old seedlings of FARO 44 and FARO 52 rice varieties were transplanted. Plots without fertiliser application served as control. Findings: The highest rice grain yield increase of 4.4 t/ha over the control in 2012 against the Nigeria average of lowland rice grain yields of 1.5 t/ha. The utilization of OBD-Biofertilizer can decrease the use of chemical nitrogen fertilizer, prevent the depletion of soil organic matter and reduce environmental pollution. Increasing the floodwater productivity and optimizing the recycling of nutrients cum grazer populations and disease by biocontrols microbes present in the OBD-Biofertilizer. Organic matter in the soil improves by 58% and C/N 15 (2011) and 13.35 (2012). Implications: OBD- Biofertilizer produce plant growth hormones such as indole acetic acid (IAA), glomalin related soil protein and extracellular enzymes as phosphatases that promote soil health and quality. Conclusion: Microorganisms can enhance nutrients use efficiency by increasing root surface area e.g., mycorrhizal, fungi, promoting other beneficial symbioses of the host plant and microbial interactions resulting to increase in soil organic matter. By 2030, climate change is projected to depress cereal production in Africa by 2 to 3 percent. Improved seeds and increased fertilizer use should more than compensate, but this factor will still weigh heavily on efforts to make progress.

Keywords: OBD-plus microbial consortia, OBD-biofertilizer, rice production, soil quality, sustainable agriculture

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Authors: Mansur Hamma-Adama, Tahar Kouider

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Construction Industry has been evolving since the development of Building Information Modelling (BIM). This technological process is unstoppable; it is out to the market with remarkable case studies of solving the long industry’s history of fragmentation. This industry has been changing over time; United States has recorded the most significant development in construction digitalization, Australia, United Kingdom and some other developed nations are also amongst promoters of BIM process and its development. Recently, a developing country like China and Malaysia are keying into the industry’s digital shift, while very little move is seen in South Africa whose development is considered higher and perhaps leader in the digital transition amongst the African countries. To authors’ best knowledge, Nigerian construction industry has never engaged in BIM discussions hence has no attention at national level. Consequently, Nigeria has no “Noteworthy BIM publications.” Decision makers and key stakeholders need to be informed on the current trend of the industry’s development (BIM in specific) and the opportunities of adopting this digitalization trend in relation to the identified challenges. BIM concept can be traced mostly in Architectural practices than engineering practices in Nigeria. A superficial BIM practice is found to be at organisational level only and operating a model based - “BIM stage 1.” Research to adopting this innovation has received very little attention. This piece of work is literature review based, aimed at exploring BIM in Nigeria and its prospects. The exploration reveals limitations in the literature availability as to extensive research in the development of BIM in the country. Numerous challenges were noticed including building collapse, inefficiencies, cost overrun and late project delivery. BIM has potentials to overcome the above challenges and even beyond. Low level of BIM adoption with reasonable level of awareness is noticed. However, lack of policy and guideline as well as serious lack of experts in the field are amongst the major barriers to BIM adoption. The industry needs to embrace BIM to possibly compete with its global counterpart.

Keywords: adoption, BIM, CAD, construction industry, Nigeria, opportunities

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Authors: Said Echchakoui

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This paper aims to investigate how experiential value added by the salesperson mediates the relationship between perceived salesperson source characteristics and his performance. Structural equation modelling was employed to assess the proposed research model empirically. The empirical results revealed that the three dimensions of experiential value economic benefit, service productivity and enjoyable interaction, mediated the relationship between perceived salesperson source characteristics and his performance. Managerial implications are addressed.

Keywords: sales force, experiential added value, customer perceived value, performance

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Authors: Haffaf Hafid

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Hypergraphs, after being used to model the structural organization of System of Sytems (SoS) at macroscopic level, has recent trends towards generalizing this powerful representation at different stages of complex system modelling. In this paper, we first describe different applications of hypergraph theory, and step by step, introduce multilevel modeling of SoS by means of integrating Constraint Programming Langages (CSP) dealing with engineering system reconfiguration strategy. As an application, we give an A.C.T Terminal controlled by a set of Intelligent Automated Vehicle.

Keywords: hypergraph model, structural analysis, bipartite graph, monitoring, system of systems, reconfiguration analysis, hypernetwork

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Authors: Dennis Otieno, Lilian Kirimi Nicholas Odhiambo, Hillary Bii

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Kenya is considered to be a middle level income country and usuaaly does not meet household food security needs especially in North and South eastern parts. Approximately half of the population is living under the poverty line (www, CIA 1, 2012). Agriculture is the largest sector in the country, employing 80% of the population. These are thereby directly dependent on the sufficiency of outputs received. This makes efficient, easy-accessible and cheap agricultural practices an important matter in order to improve food security. Maize is the prime staple food commodity in Kenya and represents a substantial share of people’s nutritional intake. This study is the result of questionnaire based interviews, Key informant and focus group discussion involving 220 small scale maize farmers Kenyan. The study was located to two separated areas; Lower Kuja, Bunyala, Nandi, Lower Nzoia, Perkerra, Mwea Bura, Hola and Galana Kulalu in Kenya. The questionnaire captured the farmers’ use and perceived importance of the use irrigation services and irrigated maize production. Viability was evaluated using the four indices which were all positive with NPV giving positive cash flows in less than 21 years at most for one season output. The mean willingness to pay was found to be KES 3082 and willingness to pay increased with increase in irrigation premiums. The economic value of water was found to be greater than the willingness to pay implying that irrigated maize production is sustainable. Farmers stated that viability was influenced by high output levels, good produce quality, crop of choice, availability of sufficient water and enforcement the last two factors had a positive influence while the other had negative effect on the viability of irrigated maize. A regression was made over the correlation between the willingness to pay for irrigated maize production using scheme and plot level factors. Farmers that already use other inputs such as animal manure, hired labor and chemical fertilizer should also have a demand for improved seeds according to Liebig's law of minimum and expansion path theory. The regression showed that premiums, and high yields have a positive effect on willingness to pay while produce quality, efficient fertilizer use, and crop season have a negative effect.

Keywords: maize, food security, profits, sustainability, willingness to pay

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Authors: Salisu Abdu Bagga

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This paper attempts to discuss contemporary issues in teacher education and address challenges therein within the context of the Nigeria society. Teacher education is an educational programme aimed at producing the right crop of people (teachers) who will teach at various levels of schooling i.e. primary, secondary and tertiary. The programme targets to inculcate desirable knowledge, skills, attitudes, values and competencies in teachers with the prime motive of keeping them fully abreast with contemporary challenges such as overcrowded classrooms, inadequate instructional materials, ineffective teaching methodology in the teaching industry in Nigeria. Nigeria needs competent, skilful, knowledgeable and innovative classroom teachers for better teaching and learning.

Keywords: teacher education, contemporary issues, competencies, higher education

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Authors: Shafique Qadir Memon, Muhammad Safar Mirjat, Abdul Quadir Mughal, Nadeem Amjad

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The aims of this study were to determine direct input energy and indirect energy in maize production, to evaluate the inputs energy consumption and outputs energy gained for maize production in Islamabad, Pakistan for spring 2013. Results showed that grain yield was maximum under deep tillage as compared to conventional and zero tillage. Total energy input/output were maximum in deep tillage as compared to conventional tillage while lowest in zero tillage, net energy gain were found maximum under deep tillage.

Keywords: tillage, energy, grain yield, net energy gain

Procedia PDF Downloads 456