Search results for: asset liability modelling

Authors: Yonas Masresha Aymeku

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The purpose of capacity modelling at U-turns is to develop a relationship between capacity and its geometric characteristics. In fact, the few models available for the estimation of capacity at different transportation facilities do not provide specific guidelines for median openings. For this reason, an effort is made to estimate the capacity by collecting the data sets from median openings at different lane roads in Hyderabad City, India. Wide difference (43% -59%) among the capacity values estimated by the existing models shows the limitation to consider for mixed traffic situations. Thus, a distinct model is proposed for the estimation of the capacity of U-turn vehicles at median openings considering mixed traffic conditions, which would further prompt to investigate the effect of different factors that might affect the capacity.

Keywords: geometric, guiddelines, median, vehicles

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Authors: Naheed Malik, Waheed Akhtar

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An introduction to the Islamic move towards the managing human resource is a preliminary attempt to provide managers with a useful way of managing and accepting employees. This knowledge would be helpful to even non-Muslim managers. Muslim managers are required not to know only the Islamic HR but also it is expected from them to apply the Islamic approach in managing the employees. Human resource is considered the most substantial asset of organizations. Studies have recommended that successful human resource management (HRM) leads to positive attitudes and behaviors at the workplace. On the contrary, unproductive use of human resources results in negative penalty in the form of lower job satisfaction, lower commitment, or even high employee turnover and even poor workforce quality.The study examined the Impact of Islamic HR practices on job satisfaction. Islamic HR variables encompass the aspects of performance appraisal, training and development, selection and recruitment. Data was obtained via self –administered questionnaires distributed among the employees of Banks in Pakistan which are practicing Islamic Banking. The sampling method employed was purposive sampling.Based on 240 responses obtained ,the study revealed that Islamic HRM deliberates the 40per cent of the variances in Job satisfaction .All variables excluding recruitment were found to be substantially pertinent to the dependent variable. The study also meditated the implications for future studies.

Keywords: islamic HRM, job satisfaction, islamic and conventional banks, Pakistan

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Authors: Hongkui Li, Tongli Lu , Jianwu Zhang

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This paper focuses on developing an estimation method of clutch drag torque in wet DCT. The modelling of clutch drag torque is investigated. As the main factor affecting the clutch drag torque, dynamic viscosity of oil is discussed. The paper proposes an estimation method of clutch drag torque based on recursive least squares by utilizing the dynamic equations of gear shifting synchronization process. The results demonstrate that the estimation method has good accuracy and efficiency.

Keywords: clutch drag torque, wet DCT, dynamic viscosity, recursive least squares

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Authors: Anicet Dansou

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Textile reinforced concrete (TRC)is increasingly used nowadays in various fields, in particular civil engineering, where it is mainly used for the reinforcement of damaged reinforced concrete structures. TRC is a composite material composed of multi- or uni-axial textile reinforcements coupled with a fine-grained cementitious matrix. The TRC composite is an alternative solution to the traditional Fiber Reinforcement Polymer (FRP) composite. It has good mechanical performance and better temperature stability but also, it makes it possible to meet the criteria of sustainable development better.TRCs are highly anisotropic composite materials with nonlinear hardening behavior; their macroscopic behavior depends on multi-scale mechanisms. The characterization of these materials through numerical simulation has been the subject of many studies. Since TRCs are multiscale material by definition, numerical multi-scale approaches have emerged as one of the most suitable methods for the simulation of TRCs. They aim to incorporate information pertaining to microscale constitute behavior, mesoscale behavior, and macro-scale structure response within a unified model that enables rapid simulation of structures. The computational costs are hence significantly reduced compared to standard simulation at a fine scale. The fine scale information can be implicitly introduced in the macro scale model: approaches of this type are called non-classical. A representative volume element is defined, and the fine scale information are homogenized over it. Analytical and computational homogenization and nested mesh methods belong to these approaches. On the other hand, in classical approaches, the fine scale information are explicitly introduced in the macro scale model. Such approaches pertain to adaptive mesh refinement strategies, sub-modelling, domain decomposition, and multigrid methods This research presents the main principles of numerical multiscale approaches. Advantages and limitations are identified according to several criteria: the assumptions made (fidelity), the number of input parameters required, the calculation costs (efficiency), etc. A bibliographic study of recent results and advances and of the scientific obstacles to be overcome in order to achieve an effective simulation of textile reinforced concrete in civil engineering is presented. A comparative study is further carried out between several methods for the simulation of TRCs used for the structural reinforcement of reinforced concrete structures.

Keywords: composites structures, multiscale methods, numerical modeling, textile reinforced concrete

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Authors: Oktay Emir

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The objective of this study is to determine how entrepreneurs perceive the economic, social and physical impacts of tourism. The study was conducted in the city of Afyonkarahisar, Turkey, which is rich in thermal tourism resources and investments. A survey was used as the data collection method, and the questionnaire was applied to 472 entrepreneurs. A simple random sampling method was used to identify the sample. Independent sampling t-tests and ANOVA tests were used to analyse the data obtained. Additionally, some statistically significant differences (p<0.05) were found based on the participants’ demographic characteristics regarding their opinions about the social, economic and physical impacts of tourism activities.

Keywords: tourism, perception, entrepreneurship, entrepreneurs, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Indunil Jayatilake, Warna Karunasena, Weena Lokuge

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An Australian manufacturer has fabricated an innovative GFRP sandwich panel made from E-glass fiber skin and a modified phenolic core for structural applications. Debonding, which refers to separation of skin from the core material in composite sandwiches, is one of the most common types of damage in composites. The presence of debonding is of great concern because it not only severely affects the stiffness but also modifies the dynamic behaviour of the structure. Generally, it is seen that the majority of research carried out has been concerned about the delamination of laminated structures whereas skin-core debonding has received relatively minor attention. Furthermore, it is observed that research done on composite slabs having multiple skin-core debonding is very limited. To address this gap, a comprehensive research investigating dynamic behaviour of composite panels with single and multiple debonding is presented. The study uses finite-element modelling and analyses for investigating the influence of debonding on free vibration behaviour of single and multilayer composite sandwich panels. A broad parametric investigation has been carried out by varying debonding locations, debonding sizes and support conditions of the panels in view of both single and multiple debonding. Numerical models were developed with Strand7 finite element package by innovatively selecting the suitable elements to diligently represent their actual behavior. Three-dimensional finite element models were employed to simulate the physically real situation as close as possible, with the use of an experimentally and numerically validated finite element model. Comparative results and conclusions based on the analyses are presented. For similar extents and locations of debonding, the effect of debonding on natural frequencies appears greatly dependent on the end conditions of the panel, giving greater decrease in natural frequency when the panels are more restrained. Some modes are more sensitive to debonding and this sensitivity seems to be related to their vibration mode shapes. The fundamental mode seems generally the least sensitive mode to debonding with respect to the variation in free vibration characteristics. The results indicate the effectiveness of the developed three-dimensional finite element models in assessing debonding damage in composite sandwich panels

Keywords: debonding, free vibration behaviour, GFRP sandwich panels, three dimensional finite element modelling

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Authors: Agata Twardoch

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The processes of commodification of real estate and changes in housing markets have led to a situation where the prices of free market housing in European capitals are significantly higher than the purchasing value of average wages. This phenomenon has many negative social and spatial consequences. At the same time, the attractiveness of real estate as an asset makes these processes progress. Out of concern for sustainable social development, city authorities apply solutions to balance the burdensome effects of codification of housing. One of them is a social provision for housing investments. The article presents a comparative study of solutions applied in selected European capitals, on the example of Warsaw, Paris, London, Berlin, Copenhagen, and Vienna. The study was conducted along with works on expert report for the master plan for Warsaw. The forms of commissions applied in Local Planning Acts were compared, with particular reference to spatial solutions. The results of the analysis made it possible to determine common features of the solutions applied and to establish recommendations for further practice. Major findings of the study indicate that requirement of social provision is achievable in spatial planning documents. Study shows that application of social provision in private housing investments is a useful tool in housing policy against commodification.

Keywords: affordable housing, housing provision, spatial planning, sustainable social development

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Authors: Khalid Kaddoura, Ahmed Assad, Tarek Zayed

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Sewer pipelines are prone to deterioration over-time. In fact, their deterioration does not follow a fixed downward pattern. This is in fact due to the defects that propagate through their service life. Sewer pipeline defects are categorized into distinct groups. However, the main two groups are the structural and operational defects. By definition, the structural defects influence the structural integrity of the sewer pipelines such as deformation, cracks, fractures, holes, etc. However, the operational defects are the ones that affect the flow of the sewer medium in the pipelines such as: roots, debris, attached deposits, infiltration, etc. Yet, the process for each defect to emerge follows a cause and effect relationship. Deformation, which is the change of the sewer pipeline geometry, is one type of an influencing defect that could be found in many sewer pipelines due to many surrounding factors. This defect could lead to collapse if the percentage exceeds 15%. Therefore, it is essential to predict the deformation percentage before confronting such a situation. Accordingly, this study will predict the percentage of the deformation defect in sewer pipelines adopting the multiple regression analysis. Several factors will be considered in establishing the model, which are expected to influence the defamation defect severity. Besides, this study will construct a time-based curve to understand how the defect would evolve overtime. Thus, this study is expected to be an asset for decision-makers as it will provide informative conclusions about the deformation defect severity. As a result, inspections will be minimized and so the budgets.

Keywords: deformation, prediction, regression analysis, sewer pipelines

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Authors: Thierry Ganomanana, Dominique Hervé, Solo Randriamahaleo

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Management of Malagasy renewable natural re-sources allows, in the case of forest, the mobilization of several actors with norms and/or territory. The interaction in this socio-ecosystem is represented by a graph of two different relationships in which most of action chains, from individual activities under the continuous of forest dynamic and discrete interventions by institutional, are also studied. The fuzzy set theory is adapted to graduate the elements of the set Illegal Activities in the space of sanction’s institution by his severity and in the space of degradation of forest by his extent.

Keywords: fuzzy set, graph, institution, renewable resource, system

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Authors: Priti Bajpai, Mohammed Shibil

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This paper utilizes a comparative case study design to examine a regional onion market. The particular case of onion markets is used to understand perishable product supply chains. The site for the study is Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Results from a six-month field study are outlined. In particular, the findings suggest that firms should examine adding additional destinations to their supply chain. Further, we argue that utilizing Dubai as a supply chain hub is in certain cases counterproductive. Implications for food supply chains and regional trade are discussed.

Keywords: supply chains, food markets, onion trade, field study

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Authors: Y. S. Yusoff, G. Streftaris, H. R Waters

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Death within 30 days is an important factor to be looked into, as there is a significant risk of deaths immediately following or soon after, Myocardial Infarction (MI) or stroke. In this paper, we will model the deaths within 30 days following a Myocardial Infarction (MI) or stroke in the UK. We will see how the probabilities of sudden deaths from MI or stroke have changed over the period 1981-2000. We will model the sudden deaths using a Generalized Linear Model (GLM), fitted using the R statistical package, under a Binomial distribution for the number of sudden deaths. We parameterize our model using the extensive and detailed data from the Framingham Heart Study, adjusted to match UK rates. The results show that there is a reduction for the sudden deaths following a MI over time but no significant improvement for sudden deaths following a stroke.

Keywords: sudden deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease

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Authors: Ali Muhammad

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The purpose of this study is to develop and test a theoretical framework which demonstrates the effect of procedural justice on four work outcomes: effective organizational commitmentو organizational trust, organizational citizenship behaviour, and adherence to rules. The new model attempts to explain how procedural justice effects work outcomes. Data were collected from 267 employees working in nine Kuwaiti business organizations. Structural equation modelling was used to analysis the data. A discussion of issues related to procedural justice is presented, as well as recommendations for future research.

Keywords: procedural justice, affective organizational commitment, organizational citizenship behaviour, organizational trust, adherence to rules

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Authors: Calister Wingang Makebe, Wilson Ambindei Agwanande, Emmanuel Jong Nso, P. Nisha

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Traditional liquid-state fermentation processes of Annona muricata L. juice can result in fluctuating product quality and quantity due to difficulties in control and scale up. This work describes a laboratory-scale batch fermentation process to produce a probiotic Annona muricata L. enzymatically extracted juice, which was modeled using the Doehlert design with independent extraction factors being incubation time, temperature, and enzyme concentration. It aimed at a better understanding of the traditional process as an initial step for future optimization. Annona muricata L. juice was fermented with L. acidophilus (NCDC 291) (LA), L. casei (NCDC 17) (LC), and a blend of LA and LC (LCA) for 72 h at 37 °C. Experimental data were fitted into mathematical models (Monod, Logistic and Luedeking and Piret models) using MATLAB software, to describe biomass growth, sugar utilization, and organic acid production. The optimal fermentation time was obtained based on cell viability, which was 24 h for LC and 36 h for LA and LCA. The model was particularly effective in estimating biomass growth, reducing sugar consumption, and lactic acid production. The values of the determination coefficient, R2, were 0.9946, 0.9913 and 0.9946, while the residual sum of square error, SSE, was 0.2876, 0.1738 and 0.1589 for LC, LA and LCA, respectively. The growth kinetic parameters included the maximum specific growth rate, µm, which was 0.2876 h-1, 0.1738 h-1 and 0.1589 h-1 as well as the substrate saturation, Ks, with 9.0680 g/L, 9.9337 g/L and 9.0709 g/L respectively for LC, LA and LCA. For the stoichiometric parameters, the yield of biomass based on utilized substrate (YXS) was 50.7932, 3.3940 and 61.0202, and the yield of product based on utilized substrate (YPS) was 2.4524, 0.2307 and 0.7415 for LC, LA, and LCA, respectively. In addition, the maintenance energy parameter (ms) was 0.0128, 0.0001 and 0.0004 with respect to LC, LA and LCA. With the kinetic model proposed by Luedeking and Piret for lactic acid production rate, the growth associated, and non-growth associated coefficients were determined as 1.0028 and 0.0109, respectively. The model was demonstrated for batch growth of LA, LC, and LCA in Annona muricata L. juice. The present investigation validates the potential of Annona muricata L. based medium for heightened economical production of a probiotic medium.

Keywords: L. acidophilus, L. casei, fermentation, modelling, kinetics

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Authors: Liyu Adhi Kasari Sulung

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Poverty has been a major problem in Indonesia. Islamic micro finance (IMF) named Baitul Maal Wat Tamwil (Bmt) plays a prominent role to eradicate this. Indonesia as the biggest muslim country has many successful applied products such as worldwide adopt group-based lending approach, flexible financing for farmers, and gold pawning. The Problems related to these models are operation risk management and internal control system (ICS). A proper ICS will help an organization in preventing the occurrence of bad financing through detecting error and irregularities in its operation. This study aims to seek a proper risk management scheme of credit system in Bmt and internal control system’s rank for every stage. Risk management variables are obtained at the first In-Depth Interview (IDI) and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with Shariah supervisory boards, boards of directors, and operational managers. Survey was conducted covering nationwide data; West Java, South Sulawesi, and West Nusa Tenggara. Moreover, Content analysis is employed to build the relationship among these variables. Research Findings shows that risk management Characteristics in Indonesia involves ex ante, credit process, and ex post strategies to deal with risk in credit system. Ex-ante control consists of Shariah compliance, survey, group leader reference, and islamic forming orientation. Then, credit process involves saving, collateral, joint liability, loan repayment, and credit installment controlling. Finally, ex-post control includes shariah evaluation, credit evaluation, grace period and low installment provisions. In addition, internal control order sort three stages by its priority; Credit process as first rank, then ex-post control as second, and ex ante control as the last rank.

Keywords: internal control system, islamic micro finance, poverty, risk management

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Authors: Fatema Akram, Mohammad G. Rasul, M. Masud K. Khan, M. Sharif I. I. Amir

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Australia is a country of some 7,700 million square kilometres with a population of about 22.6 million. At present water security is a major challenge for Australia. In some areas the use of water resources is approaching and in some parts it is exceeding the limits of sustainability. A focal point of proposed national water conservation programs is the recycling of both urban storm-water and treated wastewater. But till now it is not widely practiced in Australia, and particularly storm-water is neglected. In Australia, only 4% of storm-water and rainwater is recycled, whereas less than 1% of reclaimed wastewater is reused within urban areas. Therefore, accurately monitoring, assessing and predicting the availability, quality and use of this precious resource are required for better management. As storm-water is usually of better quality than untreated sewage or industrial discharge, it has better public acceptance for recycling and reuse, particularly for non-potable use such as irrigation, watering lawns, gardens, etc. Existing storm-water recycling practice is far behind of research and no robust technologies developed for this purpose. Therefore, there is a clear need for using modern technologies for assessing feasibility of storm-water harvesting and reuse. Numerical modelling has, in recent times, become a popular tool for doing this job. It includes complex hydrological and hydraulic processes of the study area. The hydrologic model computes storm-water quantity to design the system components, and the hydraulic model helps to route the flow through storm-water infrastructures. Nowadays water quality module is incorporated with these models. Integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) with these models provides extra advantage of managing spatial information. However for the overall management of a storm-water harvesting project, Decision Support System (DSS) plays an important role incorporating database with model and GIS for the proper management of temporal information. Additionally DSS includes evaluation tools and Graphical user interface. This research aims to critically review and discuss all the aspects of storm-water harvesting and reuse such as available guidelines of storm-water harvesting and reuse, public acceptance of water reuse, the scopes and recommendation for future studies. In addition to these, this paper identifies, understand and address the importance of modern technologies capable of proper management of storm-water harvesting and reuse.

Keywords: storm-water management, storm-water harvesting and reuse, numerical modelling, geographic information system, decision support system, database

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Authors: Mrinmoy Dhara, Vivek K. Sengar, Shovan L. Chattoraj, Soumiya Bhattacharjee

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Remote sensing techniques have emerged as an asset for various geological studies. Satellite images obtained by different sensors contain plenty of information related to the terrain. Digital image processing further helps in customized ways for the prospecting of minerals. In this study, an attempt has been made to map the hydrothermally altered zones using multispectral and hyperspectral datasets of South East Rajasthan. Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Hyperion (Level1R) dataset have been processed to generate different Band Ratio Composites (BRCs). For this study, ASTER derived BRCs were generated to delineate the alteration zones, gossans, abundant clays and host rocks. ASTER and Hyperion images were further processed to extract mineral end members and classified mineral maps have been produced using Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) method. Results were validated with the geological map of the area which shows positive agreement with the image processing outputs. Thus, this study concludes that the band ratios and image processing in combination play significant role in demarcation of alteration zones which may provide pathfinders for mineral prospecting studies.

Keywords: ASTER, hyperion, band ratios, alteration zones, SAM

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Authors: Pınar Yardımcı

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This paper tries to answer to the questions whether or not trade openness cause economic growth and trade policy changes is good for Turkey as a developing country in global economy before and after 1980. We employ Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests with error correction modelling based on vector autoregressive. Using WDI data from the pre-1980 and the post-1980, we find that trade openness and economic growth are cointegrated in the second term only. Also the results suggest a lack of long-run causality between our two variables. These findings may imply that trade policy of Turkey should concentrate more on extra complementary economic reforms.

Keywords: globalization, trade policy, economic growth, openness, cointegration, Turkey

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara

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This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.

Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

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Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The decision to invest in a new infrastructure in transports could take from a few years to some decades. This is mainly because of the need to reserve and spent many capitals, the long payback period, the number of the stakeholders involved in decision process and –many times- the investment and business risks are high. Therefore, the decision assessment framework is an essential challenge linked with the key decision factors meet the stakeholder expectations highlighting project trade-offs, financial risks, business uncertainties and market limitations. This paper examines the decision process for new transport infrastructure projects in cross border regions, where a wide range of stakeholders with different expectation is involved. According to a consequences analysis systemic approach, the relationship of transport infrastructure development, economic system development and stakeholder expectation is analyzed. Adopting the on system of system methodological approach, the decision making framework, variables, inputs and outputs are defined, highlighting the key shareholder’s role and expectations. The application provides the methodology outputs presenting the proposed decision framework for a strategic railway project in north Greece deals with the upgrade of the existing railway corridor connecting Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria.

Keywords: decision making, system of system, cross-border, infrastructure project

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Authors: Moustapha H. Ibrahim, Dahir Abdourahman

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This document presents a short-circuit fault detection process in a photovoltaic (PV) system. The proposed method is developed in MATLAB/Simulink. It determines whatever the size of the installation number of the short circuit module. The proposed algorithm indicates the presence or absence of an abnormality on the power of the PV system through measures of hourly global irradiation, power output, and ambient temperature. In case a fault is detected, it displays the number of modules in a short circuit. This fault detection method has been successfully tested on two different PV installations.

Keywords: PV system, short-circuit, fault detection, modelling, MATLAB-Simulink

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Authors: Ali K. M. Al-Nasrawi, Uday A. Al-Hamdany, Sarah M. Hamylton, Brian G. Jones, Yasir M. Alyazichi

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Surface elevation dynamics have always responded to disturbance regimes. Creating Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to detect surface dynamics has led to the development of several methods, devices and data clouds. DEMs can provide accurate and quick results with cost efficiency, in comparison to the inherited geomatics survey techniques. Nowadays, remote sensing datasets have become a primary source to create DEMs, including LiDAR point clouds with GIS analytic tools. However, these data need to be tested for error detection and correction. This paper evaluates various DEMs from different data sources over time for Apple Orchard Island, a coastal site in southeastern Australia, in order to detect surface dynamics. Subsequently, 30 chosen locations were examined in the field to test the error of the DEMs surface detection using high resolution global positioning systems (GPSs). Results show significant surface elevation changes on Apple Orchard Island. Accretion occurred on most of the island while surface elevation loss due to erosion is limited to the northern and southern parts. Concurrently, the projected differential correction and validation method aimed to identify errors in the dataset. The resultant DEMs demonstrated a small error ratio (≤ 3%) from the gathered datasets when compared with the fieldwork survey using RTK-GPS. As modern modelling approaches need to become more effective and accurate, applying several tools to create different DEMs on a multi-temporal scale would allow easy predictions in time-cost-frames with more comprehensive coverage and greater accuracy. With a DEM technique for the eco-geomorphic context, such insights about the ecosystem dynamic detection, at such a coastal intertidal system, would be valuable to assess the accuracy of the predicted eco-geomorphic risk for the conservation management sustainability. Demonstrating this framework to evaluate the historical and current anthropogenic and environmental stressors on coastal surface elevation dynamism could be profitably applied worldwide.

Keywords: DEMs, eco-geomorphic-dynamic processes, geospatial Information Science, remote sensing, surface elevation changes,

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Authors: Hammad Majeed, Hanna Knuutila, Magne Hilestad, Hallvard Svendsen

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Formation of aerosols can cause serious complications in industrial exhaust gas CO2 capture processes. SO3 present in the flue gas can cause aerosol formation in an absorption based capture process. Small mist droplets and fog formed can normally not be removed in conventional demisting equipment because their submicron size allows the particles or droplets to follow the gas flow. As a consequence of this aerosol based emissions in the order of grams per Nm3 have been identified from PCCC plants. In absorption processes aerosols are generated by spontaneous condensation or desublimation processes in supersaturated gas phases. Undesired aerosol development may lead to amine emissions many times larger than what would be encountered in a mist free gas phase in PCCC development. It is thus of crucial importance to understand the formation and build-up of these aerosols in order to mitigate the problem.Rigorous modelling of aerosol dynamics leads to a system of partial differential equations. In order to understand mechanics of a particle entering an absorber an implementation of the model is created in Matlab. The model predicts the droplet size, the droplet internal variable profiles and the mass transfer fluxes as function of position in the absorber. The Matlab model is based on a subclass method of weighted residuals for boundary value problems named, orthogonal collocation method. The model comprises a set of mass transfer equations for transferring components and the essential diffusion reaction equations to describe the droplet internal profiles for all relevant constituents. Also included is heat transfer across the interface and inside the droplet. This paper presents results describing the basic simulation tool for the characterization of aerosols formed in CO2 absorption columns and gives examples as to how various entering droplets grow or shrink through an absorber and how their composition changes with respect to time. Below are given some preliminary simulation results for an aerosol droplet composition and temperature profiles. Results: As an example a droplet of initial size of 3 microns, initially containing a 5M MEA, solution is exposed to an atmosphere free of MEA. Composition of the gas phase and temperature is changing with respect to time throughout the absorber.

Keywords: amine solvents, emissions, global climate change, simulation and modelling, aerosol generation

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Authors: Retno A. Vinarti, Lucy M. Hederman

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This research describes a knowledge model for a system which give personalized alert to users about infectious disease risks in the context of weather, location and time. The knowledge model is based on established epidemiological concepts augmented by information gleaned from infection-related data repositories. The existing disease risk prediction research has more focuses on utilizing raw historical data and yield seasonal patterns of infectious disease risk emergence. This research incorporates both data and epidemiological concepts gathered from Atlas of Human Infectious Disease (AHID) and Centre of Disease Control (CDC) as basic reasoning of infectious disease risk prediction. Using CommonKADS methodology, the disease risk prediction task is an assignment synthetic task, starting from knowledge identification through specification, refinement to implementation. First, knowledge is gathered from AHID primarily from the epidemiology and risk group chapters for each infectious disease. The result of this stage is five major elements (Person, Infectious Disease, Weather, Location and Time) and their properties. At the knowledge specification stage, the initial tree model of each element and detailed relationships are produced. This research also includes a validation step as part of knowledge refinement: on the basis that the best model is formed using the most common features, Frequency-based Selection (FBS) is applied. The portion of the Infectious Disease risk model relating to Person comes out strongest, with Location next, and Weather weaker. For Person attribute, Age is the strongest, Activity and Habits are moderate, and Blood type is weakest. At the Location attribute, General category (e.g. continents, region, country, and island) results much stronger than Specific category (i.e. terrain feature). For Weather attribute, Less Precise category (i.e. season) comes out stronger than Precise category (i.e. exact temperature or humidity interval). However, given that some infectious diseases are significantly more serious than others, a frequency based metric may not be appropriate. Future work will incorporate epidemiological measurements of disease seriousness (e.g. odds ratio, hazard ratio and fatality rate) into the validation metrics. This research is limited to modelling existing knowledge about epidemiology and chain of infection concepts. Further step, verification in knowledge refinement stage, might cause some minor changes on the shape of tree.

Keywords: epidemiology, knowledge modelling, infectious disease, prediction, risk

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Authors: Lina Najafian, Hamidreza Vakilifard

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The present study focused on the relationship between the quality of accruals and non-systematic risk. The independent study variables included the ability of accruals, the information content of accruals, and amount of discretionary accruals considered as accruals quality measures. The dependent variable was non-systematic risk based on the Fama and French Three Factor model (FFTFM) and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The control variables were firm size, financial leverage, stock return, cash flow fluctuations, and book-to-market ratio. The data collection method was based on library research and document mining including financial statements. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the data. The study results showed that there is a significant direct relationship between financial leverage and discretionary accruals and non-systematic risk based on FFTFM and CAPM. There is also a significant direct relationship between the ability of accruals, information content of accruals, firm size, and stock return and non-systematic based on both models. It was also found that there is no relationship between book-to-market ratio and cash flow fluctuations and non-systematic risk.

Keywords: accruals quality, non-systematic risk, CAPM, FFTFM

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: Valeria Bondarenko

Abstract:

We proposed algorithms for: estimation of parameters fBm (volatility and Hurst exponent) and for the approximation of random time series by functional of fBm. We proved the consistency of the estimators, which constitute the above algorithms, and proved the optimal forecast of approximated time series. The adequacy of estimation algorithms, approximation, and forecasting is proved by numerical experiment. During the process of creating software, the system has been created, which is displayed by the hierarchical structure. The comparative analysis of proposed algorithms with the other methods gives evidence of the advantage of approximation method. The results can be used to develop methods for the analysis and modeling of time series describing the economic, physical, biological and other processes.

Keywords: mathematical model, random process, Wiener process, fractional Brownian motion

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Authors: U. Chattaraj, K. Dhusiya, M. Raviteja

Abstract:

Perception reaction time of drivers is an outcome of human thought process, which is vague and approximate in nature and also varies from driver to driver. So, in this study a fuzzy logic based model for prediction of the same has been presented, which seems suitable. The control factors, like, age, experience, intensity of driving of the driver, speed of the vehicle and distance of stimulus have been considered as premise variables in the model, in which the perception reaction time is the consequence variable. Results show that the model is able to explain the impacts of the control factors on perception reaction time properly.

Keywords: driver, fuzzy logic, perception reaction time, premise variable

Procedia PDF Downloads 304

Authors: A. Brahma

Abstract:

Analysis of deferred deformations of concrete under sustained load shows that the creep has a leading role on deferred deformations of concrete structures. Knowledge of the creep characteristics of concrete is a Necessary starting point in the design of structures for crack control. Such knowledge will enable the designer to estimate the probable deformation in pre-stressed concrete or reinforced and the appropriate steps can be taken in design to accommodate this movement. In this study, we propose a prediction model that involves the acting principal parameters on the deferred behaviour of concrete structures. For the estimation of the model parameters Levenberg-Marquardt method has proven very satisfactory. A confrontation between the experimental results and the predictions of models designed shows that it is well suited to describe the evolution of the creep of concrete structures.

Keywords: concrete structure, creep, modelling, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: M. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal Khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H. Sharma, Fatema Akram

Abstract:

Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameter stationary. However, climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise (SLR). To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment

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Authors: Ivana Scidà, Francesco Alotto, Anna Osello

Abstract:

Due to the importance given today to innovation, the education sector is evolving thanks digital technologies. Virtual Reality (VR) can be a potential teaching tool offering many advantages in the field of training and education, as it allows to acquire theoretical knowledge and practical skills using an immersive experience in less time than the traditional educational process. These assumptions allow to lay the foundations for a new educational environment, involving and stimulating for students. Starting from the objective of strengthening the innovative teaching offer and the learning processes, the case study of the research concerns the digitalization of MastrLAB, High Quality Laboratory (HQL) belonging to the Department of Structural, Building and Geotechnical Engineering (DISEG) of the Polytechnic of Turin, a center specialized in experimental mechanical tests on traditional and innovative building materials and on the structures made with them. The MastrLAB-VR has been developed, a revolutionary innovative training tool designed with the aim of educating the class in total safety on the techniques of use of machinery, thus reducing the dangers arising from the performance of potentially dangerous activities. The virtual laboratory, dedicated to the students of the Building and Civil Engineering Courses of the Polytechnic of Turin, has been projected to simulate in an absolutely realistic way the experimental approach to the structural tests foreseen in their courses of study: from the tensile tests to the relaxation tests, from the steel qualification tests to the resilience tests on elements at environmental conditions or at characterizing temperatures. The research work proposes a methodology for the virtualization of technical laboratories through the application of Building Information Modelling (BIM), starting from the creation of a digital model. The process includes the creation of an independent application, which with Oculus Rift technology will allow the user to explore the environment and interact with objects through the use of joypads. The application has been tested in prototype way on volunteers, obtaining results related to the acquisition of the educational notions exposed in the experience through a virtual quiz with multiple answers, achieving an overall evaluation report. The results have shown that MastrLAB-VR is suitable for both beginners and experts and will be adopted experimentally for other laboratories of the University departments.

Keywords: building information modelling, digital learning, education, virtual laboratory, virtual reality

Procedia PDF Downloads 131