Search results for: grade uncertainty
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2126

Search results for: grade uncertainty

1256 Performance of Structural Concrete Containing Marble Dust as a Partial Replacement for River Sand

Authors: Ravande Kishore

Abstract:

The paper present the results of experimental investigation carried out to understand the mechanical properties of concrete containing marble dust. Two grades of concrete viz. M25 and M35 have been considered for investigation. For each grade of concrete five replacement percentages of sand viz. 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% and 25% by marble dust have been considered. In all, 12 concrete mix cases including two control concrete mixtures have been studied to understand the key properties such as Compressive strength, Modulus of elasticity, Modulus of rupture and Split tensile strength. Development of Compressive strength is also investigated. In general, the results of investigation indicated improved performance of concrete mixture containing marble dust. About 21% increase in Compressive strength is noticed for concrete mixtures containing 20% marble dust and 80% river sand. An overall assessment of investigation results pointed towards high potential for marble dust as alternative construction material coming from waste generated in marble industry.

Keywords: construction material, partial replacement, marble dust, compressive strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 431
1255 Predicting Indonesia External Debt Crisis: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

Authors: Riznaldi Akbar

Abstract:

In this study, we compared the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with back-propagation algorithm in correctly predicting in-sample and out-of-sample external debt crisis in Indonesia. We found that exchange rate, foreign reserves, and exports are the major determinants to experiencing external debt crisis. The ANN in-sample performance provides relatively superior results. The ANN model is able to classify correctly crisis of 89.12 per cent with reasonably low false alarms of 7.01 per cent. In out-of-sample, the prediction performance fairly deteriorates compared to their in-sample performances. It could be explained as the ANN model tends to over-fit the data in the in-sample, but it could not fit the out-of-sample very well. The 10-fold cross-validation has been used to improve the out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results also offer policy implications. The out-of-sample performance could be very sensitive to the size of the samples, as it could yield a higher total misclassification error and lower prediction accuracy. The ANN model could be used to identify past crisis episodes with some accuracy, but predicting crisis outside the estimation sample is much more challenging because of the presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: debt crisis, external debt, artificial neural network, ANN

Procedia PDF Downloads 445
1254 Effectuation in Production: How Production Managers Can Apply Decision-Making Techniques of Successful Entrepreneurs

Authors: Malte Brettel, David Bendig, Michael Keller, Marius Rosenberg

Abstract:

What are the core competences necessary in order to sustain manufacturing in high-wage countries? Aspiring countries all over the world gain market share in manufacturing and rapidly close the productivity and quality gap that has until now protected some parts of the industry in Europe and the United States from dislocation. However, causal production planning and manufacturing, the basis for productivity and quality, is challenged by the ever-greater need for flexibility and customized products in an uncertain business environment. This article uses a case-study-based approach to assess how production managers in high-wage countries can apply decision-making principals from successful entrepreneurs. 'Effectuation' instead of causal decision making can be applied to handle uncertainty of mass customization, to seek the right partners in alliances and to advance towards virtual production. The findings help managers to use their resources more efficiently and contribute to bridge the gap between production research and entrepreneurship.

Keywords: case studies, decision-making behavior, effectuation, production planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 348
1253 A Comparative Study on Sampling Techniques of Polynomial Regression Model Based Stochastic Free Vibration of Composite Plates

Authors: S. Dey, T. Mukhopadhyay, S. Adhikari

Abstract:

This paper presents an exhaustive comparative investigation on sampling techniques of polynomial regression model based stochastic natural frequency of composite plates. Both individual and combined variations of input parameters are considered to map the computational time and accuracy of each modelling techniques. The finite element formulation of composites is capable to deal with both correlated and uncorrelated random input variables such as fibre parameters and material properties. The results obtained by Polynomial regression (PR) using different sampling techniques are compared. Depending on the suitability of sampling techniques such as 2k Factorial designs, Central composite design, A-Optimal design, I-Optimal, D-Optimal, Taguchi’s orthogonal array design, Box-Behnken design, Latin hypercube sampling, sobol sequence are illustrated. Statistical analysis of the first three natural frequencies is presented to compare the results and its performance.

Keywords: composite plate, natural frequency, polynomial regression model, sampling technique, uncertainty quantification

Procedia PDF Downloads 514
1252 In-Situ Redevelopment in Urban India: Two Case Studies from Delhi and Mumbai

Authors: Ashok Kumar, Anjali Sharma

Abstract:

As cities grow and expand spatially, redevelopment in urban India is beginning to emerge as a new mode of urban expansion sweeping low-income informal settlements. This paper examines the extent and nature of expanding urban frontier before examining implications for the families living in these settlements. Displacement of these families may appear to be an obvious consequence. However, we have conducted ethnographic studies over the past several months in a Delhi slum named Kathputli Colony, Delhi. In depth analysis of the study for this slum appears to present a variegated set of consequences for the residents of informal settlements including loss of livelihoods, dismantling of family ties, and general anxiety arising out of uncertainty about resettlement. Apart from Delhi case study, we also compare and contrast another redevelopment case from Mumbai located at Bhendi Bazar. These examples from the two mega cities of Mumbai and Delhi are analysed to understand and explore expanding urban frontiers and their consequences for informing future public policy.

Keywords: informal settlements, policy, redevelopment, urban

Procedia PDF Downloads 335
1251 Characterization and Design of a Crumb Rubber Modified Asphalt Mix Formulation

Authors: H. Al-Baghli

Abstract:

Laboratory trial results of mixing crumb rubber produced from discarded tires with 60/70 pen grade Kuwaiti bitumen are presented on this paper. PG grading and multiple stress creep recovery tests were conducted on Kuwaiti bitumen blended with 15% and 18% crumb rubber at temperatures ranging from 40 to 70 °C. The results from elastic recovery and non-recoverable creep presented optimum performance at 18% rubber content. The optimum rubberized-bitumen mix was next transformed into a pelletized form (PelletPave®), and was used as a partial replacement to the conventional bitumen in the manufacture of continuously graded hot mix asphalts at a number of binder contents. The trialed PelletPave® contents were at 2.5%, 3.0%, and 3.5% by mass of asphalt mix. In this investigation, it was not possible to utilize the results of standard Marshall method of mix design (i.e. volumetric, stability and flow tests) and subsequently additional assessment of mix compactability was carried out using gyratory compactor in order to determine the optimum PelletPave® and total binder contents.

Keywords: crumb rubber, Marshall mix design, PG grading, rubberized-bitumen

Procedia PDF Downloads 219
1250 Improving Order Quantity Model with Emergency Safety Stock (ESS)

Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

Abstract:

This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 349
1249 Multi-Response Optimization of EDM for Ti-6Al-4V Using Taguchi-Grey Relational Analysis

Authors: Ritesh Joshi, Kishan Fuse, Gopal Zinzala, Nishit Nirmal

Abstract:

Ti-6Al-4V is a titanium alloy having high strength, low weight and corrosion resistant which is a required characteristic for a material to be used in aerospace industry. Titanium, being a hard alloy is difficult to the machine via conventional methods, so it is a call to use non-conventional processes. In present work, the effects on Ti-6Al-4V by drilling a hole of Ø 6 mm using copper (99%) electrode in Electric Discharge Machining (EDM) process is analyzed. Effect of various input parameters like peak current, pulse-on time and pulse-off time on output parameters viz material removal rate (MRR) and electrode wear rate (EWR) is studied. Multi-objective optimization technique Grey relational analysis is used for process optimization. Experiments are designed using an L9 orthogonal array. ANOVA is used for finding most contributing parameter followed by confirmation tests for validating the results. Improvement of 7.45% in gray relational grade is observed.

Keywords: ANOVA, electric discharge machining, grey relational analysis, Ti-6Al-4V

Procedia PDF Downloads 365
1248 Good Supply Chain Management A Factor for Business Performance

Authors: Irina Canco, Amela Malaj

Abstract:

It is evident that there exists a relationship between supply chain management and business performance. Surveys have showed that in many cases the manager's beliefs and expectations on supply chain management do not match the reality of the business. In this context, the study of supply chain issues is of particular importance and interest considering specifically the current period. The economic problems of this period, are present in Albania as well. The complexity of the supply chain focuses on order fulfilment. Therefore, in this paper, attention will be paid to the impact of supply chain management on business performance. The objective of the paper is to find a relationship between the good supply chain management and business performance. This research is based on the results of surveys referring to the experience of successful businesses on issues related to sustainable supply chain management and its synchronization with the provision of products and services required by the final customers. This study clearly evidenced the impact of the speed of meeting customer requirements on AMAZONA performance. This was also confirmed mathematically through one of the decision criteria in conditions of uncertainty—Laplace criterion.

Keywords: supply chain management, AMAZONA, business performance, Laplace criteria

Procedia PDF Downloads 172
1247 Measuring Banks’ Antifragility via Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

Abstract:

Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: adaptive complex systems, X-Events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number

Procedia PDF Downloads 184
1246 Effect of Rubber Tyre and Plastic Wastes Use in Asphalt Concrete Pavement

Authors: F. Onyango, Salim R. Wanjala, M. Ndege, L. Masu

Abstract:

Asphalt concrete pavements have a short life cycle, failing mainly due to temperature changes, traffic loading and ageing. Modified asphalt mixtures provide the technology to produce a bituminous binder with improved viscoelastic properties which remain in balance over a wider temperature range and loading conditions. In this research, 60/70 penetration grade asphalt binder was modified by adding 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 percent by weight of asphalt binder following the wet process and the mineral aggregate was modified by adding 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent crumb rubber by volume of the mineral aggregate following the dry process. The LDPE modified asphalt binder Rheological properties were evaluated. The laboratory results showed an increase in viscosity, softening point and stiffness of the binder. The modified asphalt was then used in preparing asphalt mixtures by Marshall Mix design procedure. The Marshall stability values for mixes containing 2% crumb rubber and 4% LDPE were found to be 30% higher than the conventional asphalt concrete mix.

Keywords: crumb rubber, dry process, hot mix asphalt, wet process

Procedia PDF Downloads 368
1245 Low Term Aerobic Training Is Not Associated with Anti-Inflammatory in Obese Women

Authors: Zohreh Afsharmand, Sokhanguei Yahya

Abstract:

A growing body of literature suggests that that low-grade systemic inflammation associated to obesity plays a key role in the pathogenic mechanism of several disorders. In this study, the effect of 6 weeks aerobic training on IL-6 and IL-1B as inflammatory cytokine were investigated in adult obese women. For this purpose, 26 sedentary adult obese women were divided into exercise and control groups (n=12). Pre and post training of mentioned cytokines were measured in two groups. Student’s t-tests for paired samples were performed to determine whether there were significant within-group changes in the outcomes. A p value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. There were no statistically significant differences between the exercise and control groups with regard to anthropometrical markers or inflammatory cytokines. Despite the significant decrease in all anthropometrical markers, no significant differences were found in serum IL-6 and IL-1B by aerobic training with compared to baseline. Our findings indicate that aerobic training intervention for a short time is not associated with the anti-inflammatory property in obese women.

Keywords: aerobic training, cytokine, inflammation, obesity

Procedia PDF Downloads 350
1244 The Concept of Community Participation and Identified Tertiary Education Problems, Strategies and Methods

Authors: Ada Adoga James

Abstract:

This paper discussed the concept of community participation and identified tertiary education problems; strategies and methods communities could be involved to reduce conflict witnessed in our tertiary institutions of learning due to government inability to fund education. The paper pointed out that community participation through the use of Parent Teachers Association (PTA), age grade, traditional leaders, village based associations, religious and political organs could be sensitized to raise financial resources. The paper identified different sources of conflicts, the outcome of which causes prolonged academic activities, destruction of lives and properties and in some cased render school environment completely insecure for serious academic activities. It recommends involvement of community participation in assisting government, proper handling of tertiary institutions in management, and more democratic procedure in conflict resolution like cordial relationship between staff, students and trade unions in decision making process.

Keywords: community, conflict resolution, tertiary education, psychology, psychiatry

Procedia PDF Downloads 484
1243 Pharmacokinetics and Safety of Pacritinib in Patients with Hepatic Impairment and Healthy Volunteers

Authors: Suliman Al-Fayoumi, Sherri Amberg, Huafeng Zhou, Jack W. Singer, James P. Dean

Abstract:

Pacritinib is an oral kinase inhibitor with specificity for JAK2, FLT3, IRAK1, and CSF1R. In clinical studies, pacritinib was well tolerated with clinical activity in patients with myelofibrosis. The most frequent adverse events (AEs) observed with pacritinib are gastrointestinal (diarrhea, nausea, and vomiting; mostly grade 1-2 in severity) and typically resolve within 2 weeks. A human ADME mass balance study demonstrated that pacritinib is predominantly cleared via hepatic metabolism and biliary excretion (>85% of administered dose). The major hepatic metabolite identified, M1, is not thought to materially contribute to the pharmacological activity of pacritinib. Hepatic diseases are known to impair hepatic blood flow, drug-metabolizing enzymes, and biliary transport systems and may affect drug absorption, disposition, efficacy, and toxicity. This phase 1 study evaluated the pharmacokinetics (PK) and safety of pacritinib and the M1 metabolite in study subjects with mild, moderate, or severe hepatic impairment (HI) and matched healthy subjects with normal liver function to determine if pacritinib dosage adjustments are necessary for patients with varying degrees of hepatic insufficiency. Study participants (aged 18-85 y) were enrolled into 4 groups based on their degree of HI as defined by Child-Pugh Clinical Assessment Score: mild (n=8), moderate (n=8), severe (n=4), and healthy volunteers (n=8) matched for age, BMI, and sex. Individuals with concomitant renal dysfunction or progressive liver disease were excluded. A single 400 mg dose of pacritinib was administered to all participants. Blood samples were obtained for PK evaluation predose and at multiple time points postdose through 168 h. Key PK parameters evaluated included maximum plasma concentration (Cmax), time to Cmax (Tmax), area under the plasma concentration time curve (AUC) from hour zero to last measurable concentration (AUC0-t), AUC extrapolated to infinity (AUC0-∞), and apparent terminal elimination half-life (t1/2). Following treatment, pacritinib was quantifiable for all study participants at 1 h through 168 h postdose. Systemic pacritinib exposure was similar between healthy volunteers and individuals with mild HI. However, there was a significant difference between those with moderate and severe HI and healthy volunteers with respect to peak concentration (Cmax) and plasma exposure (AUC0-t, AUC0-∞). Mean Cmax decreased by 47% and 57% respectively in participants with moderate and severe HI vs matched healthy volunteers. Similarly, mean AUC0-t decreased by 36% and 45% and mean AUC0-∞ decreased by 46% and 48%, respectively in individuals with moderate and severe HI vs healthy volunteers. Mean t1/2 ranged from 51.5 to 74.9 h across all groups. The variability on exposure ranged from 17.8% to 51.8% across all groups. Systemic exposure of M1 was also significantly decreased in study participants with moderate or severe HI vs. healthy participants and individuals with mild HI. These changes were not significantly dissimilar from the inter-patient variability in these parameters observed in healthy volunteers. All AEs were grade 1-2 in severity. Diarrhea and headache were the only AEs reported in >1 participant (n=4 each). Based on these observations, it is unlikely that dosage adjustments would be warranted in patients with mild, moderate, or severe HI treated with pacritinib.

Keywords: pacritinib, myelofibrosis, hepatic impairment, pharmacokinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 299
1242 Study of Physico-Chimical Properties of a Silty Soil

Authors: Moulay Smaïne Ghembaza, Mokhtar Dadouch, Nour-Said Ikhlef

Abstract:

Soil treatment is to make use soil that does not have the characteristics required in a given context. We limit ourselves in this work to the field of road earthworks where we have chosen to develop a local material in the region of Sidi Bel Abbes (Algeria). This material has poor characteristics not meeting the standards used in road geo technics. To remedy this, firstly, we were trying to improve the Proctor Standard characteristics of this material by mechanical treatment increasing the compaction energy. Then, by a chemical treatment, adding some cement dosages, our results show that this material classified A1h a increase maximum dry density and a reduction in the water content of compaction. A comparative study is made on the optimal properties of the material between the two modes of treatment. On the other hand, after treatment, one finds a decrease in the plasticity index and the methylene blue value. This material exhibits a change of class. Therefore, soil class CL turned into a soil class composed CL-ML (Silt of low plasticity). This observation allows this material to be used as backfill or sub grade.

Keywords: treatment of soil, cement, subgrade, Atteberg limits, classification, optimum proctor properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 473
1241 Nano Fat Injection for Scar Treatment and Skin Rejuvenation

Authors: Sokol Isaraj, Lorela Bendo

Abstract:

Scars resulting from surgery, injury, or burns have a physical and psychological impact on the affected patient. Although a number of treatments are available, nano fat grafting is an effective treatment for scars. Nano fat is a liquid suspension rich in stem cells obtained by mechanical emulsification. Nano fat grafting was performed in 10 cases to correct rhytides, surgical scars, and post-burn scars between January 2022 and April 2022. Fat was aspirated from the lower abdomen or trochanteric region. After emulsification and filtration protocol, the resulting nano fat liquid was injected intradermally and subdermally. All patients filled out a questionnaire at three months post-treatment, which consisted of questions regarding the grade of improvement of skin and recommendation of the procedure. The clinical results were apparent between 2 and 3 weeks after the treatment. All patients confirmed an improvement in skin texture and quality. The most significant improvement was seen in pigmentation and pliability. No complications were reported. Nano fat seems to be a safe and effective treatment in scar treatment and skin rejuvenation.

Keywords: fat grafting, fat transfer, micro fat, nano fat

Procedia PDF Downloads 84
1240 The Influence of Beta Shape Parameters in Project Planning

Authors: Αlexios Kotsakis, Stefanos Katsavounis, Dimitra Alexiou

Abstract:

Networks can be utilized to represent project planning problems, using nodes for activities and arcs to indicate precedence relationship between them. For fixed activity duration, a simple algorithm calculates the amount of time required to complete a project, followed by the activities that comprise the critical path. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) generalizes the above model by incorporating uncertainty, allowing activity durations to be random variables, producing nevertheless a relatively crude solution in planning problems. In this paper, based on the findings of the relevant literature, which strongly suggests that a Beta distribution can be employed to model earthmoving activities, we utilize Monte Carlo simulation, to estimate the project completion time distribution and measure the influence of skewness, an element inherent in activities of modern technical projects. We also extract the activity criticality index, with an ultimate goal to produce more accurate planning estimations.

Keywords: beta distribution, PERT, Monte Carlo simulation, skewness, project completion time distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
1239 Feasibility Study of Measurement of Turning Based-Surfaces Using Perthometer, Optical Profiler and Confocal Sensor

Authors: Khavieya Anandhan, Soundarapandian Santhanakrishnan, Vijayaraghavan Laxmanan

Abstract:

In general, measurement of surfaces is carried out by using traditional methods such as contact type stylus instruments. This prevalent approach is challenged by using non-contact instruments such as optical profiler, co-ordinate measuring machine, laser triangulation sensors, machine vision system, etc. Recently, confocal sensor is trying to be used in the surface metrology field. This sensor, such as a confocal sensor, is explored in this study to determine the surface roughness value for various turned surfaces. Turning is a crucial machining process to manufacture products such as grooves, tapered domes, threads, tapers, etc. The roughness value of turned surfaces are in the range of range 0.4-12.5 µm, were taken for analysis. Three instruments were used, namely, perthometer, optical profiler, and confocal sensor. Among these, in fact, a confocal sensor is least explored, despite its good resolution about 5 nm. Thus, such a high-precision sensor was used in this study to explore the possibility of measuring turned surfaces. Further, using this data, measurement uncertainty was also studied.

Keywords: confocal sensor, optical profiler, surface roughness, turned surfaces

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
1238 An Epistemic Approach to Confidence Through Objectivity in Assurance of Safety-Critical Complex Systems

Authors: Odd Ivar Haugen

Abstract:

This paper presents a framework for assessing the objectivity of the assurance effort for safety-critical complex systems. Assurance is the process of building justified confidence that a system will behave as expected. Objectivity, as a property of the inquiry process, is key to generating this confidence. The framework identifies three main dimensions of objectivity: the methods and processes used to generate system and assurance artefacts, the reasoning and values underlying those artefacts, and the social processes that enable agreement on their validity. Each dimension contributes to overall objectivity, however, not as a set of independent dimensions. Objectivity is not a binary but a matter of degree, and different levels are required depending on the criticality of the system. The framework provides guidance on how to apply the concept of objectivity to different aspects of the assurance effort, from identifying stakeholders and their concerns to communicating risk. Requirement identification and refinement, verification, and risk communication are illustrations of its use in various assurance activities. Overall, this work offers a systematic approach to building justified confidence in the safety of complex engineered systems.

Keywords: assurance, objectivity, risk, uncertainty, knowledge, system safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 16
1237 Effects of Different Calcination Temperature on the Geopolymerization of Fly Ash

Authors: Nurcan Tugrul, Funda Demir, Hilal Ozkan, Nur Olgun, Emek Derun

Abstract:

Geopolymers are aluminosilicate-containing materials. The raw materials of the geopolymerization can be natural material such as kaolinite, metakaolin (calcined kaolinite), clay, diatomite, rock powder or can also be industrial by-products such as fly ash, silica fume, blast furnace slag, rice-husk ash, mine tailing, red mud, waste slag, etc. Reactivity of raw materials in geopolymer production is very important for achieving high reaction grade. Fly ash used in geopolymer production has been calcined to obtain tetrahedral SiO₂ and Al₂O₃ structures. In this study, fly ash calcined at different temperatures (700, 800 and 900 °C), and Al₂O₃ addition (Al₂O₃ at min (0%) and max (100%)) were used to produce geopolymers. HCl dissolution method was applied to determine the geopolymerization percentage of samples and Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) Spectroscopy was used to find out the optimum calcination temperature for geopolymerization. According to obtained results, the highest geopolymerization percentage (0% alumina added geopolymer equal to 35.789%; 100% alumina added geopolymer equal to 40.546%) was obtained in samples using fly ash calcined at 800 °C.

Keywords: geopolymer, fly ash, Al₂O₃ addition, calcination

Procedia PDF Downloads 179
1236 Beyond Classic Program Evaluation and Review Technique: A Generalized Model for Subjective Distributions with Flexible Variance

Authors: Byung Cheol Kim

Abstract:

The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is widely used for project management, but it struggles with subjective distributions, particularly due to its assumptions of constant variance and light tails. To overcome these limitations, we propose the Generalized PERT (G-PERT) model, which enhances PERT by incorporating variability in three-point subjective estimates. Our methodology extends the original PERT model to cover the full range of unimodal beta distributions, enabling the model to handle thick-tailed distributions and offering formulas for computing mean and variance. This maintains the simplicity of PERT while providing a more accurate depiction of uncertainty. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that the G-PERT model significantly improves performance, particularly when dealing with heavy-tail subjective distributions. In comparative assessments with alternative models such as triangular and lognormal distributions, G-PERT shows superior accuracy and flexibility. These results suggest that G-PERT offers a more robust solution for project estimation while still retaining the user-friendliness of the classic PERT approach.

Keywords: PERT, subjective distribution, project management, flexible variance

Procedia PDF Downloads 21
1235 Uncertain Time-Cost Trade off Problems of Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Set Theory

Authors: V. S. S. Kumar, B. Vikram

Abstract:

The development of effective decision support tools that adopted in the construction industry is vital in the world we live in today, since it can lead to substantial cost reduction and efficient resource consumption. Solving the time-cost trade off problems and its related variants is at the heart of scientific research for optimizing construction planning problems. In general, the classical optimization techniques have difficulties in dealing with TCT problems. One of the main reasons of their failure is that they can easily be entrapped in local minima. This paper presents an investigation on the application of meta-heuristic techniques to two particular variants of the time-cost trade of analysis, the time-cost trade off problem (TCT), and time-cost trade off optimization problem (TCO). In first problem, the total project cost should be minimized, and in the second problem, the total project cost and total project duration should be minimized simultaneously. Finally it is expected that, the optimization models developed in this paper will contribute significantly for efficient planning and management of construction project.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, uncertainty, optimization, time cost trade off problems

Procedia PDF Downloads 357
1234 An Approach to the Assembly Line Balancing Problem with Uncertain Operation Time

Authors: Zhongmin Wang, Lin Wei, Hengshan Zhang, Tianhua Chen, Yimin Zhou

Abstract:

The assembly line balancing problems are signficant in mass production systems. In order to deal with the uncertainties that practically exist but barely mentioned in the literature, this paper develops a mathematic model with an optimisation algorithm to solve the assembly line balancing problem with uncertainty operation time. The developed model is able to work with a variable number of workstations under the uncertain environment, aiming to obtain the minimal number of workstation and minimal idle time for each workstation. In particular, the proposed approach first introduces the concept of protection time that closely works with the uncertain operation time. Four dominance rules and the mechanism of determining up and low bounds are subsequently put forward, which serve as the basis for the proposed branch and bound algorithm. Experimental results show that the proposed work verified on a benchmark data set is able to solve the uncertainties efficiently.

Keywords: assembly lines, SALBP-UOT, uncertain operation time, branch and bound algorithm.

Procedia PDF Downloads 171
1233 Nano Fat Injection for Scar Treatment and Skin Rejuvenation

Authors: Sokol Isaraj, Lorela Bendo

Abstract:

Scars resulting from surgery, injury, or burns have a physical and psychological impact on the affected patient. Although a number of treatments are available, nano fat grafting is an effective treatment for scars. Nano fat is a liquid suspension rich in stem cells obtained by mechanical emulsification. Nano fat grafting was performed in 10 cases to correct rhytides, surgical scars and post-burn scars between January 2022 and April 2022. Fat was aspirated from the lower abdomen or trochanteric region. After emulsification and filtration protocol, the resulting nano fat liquid was injected intradermally and subdermally. All patients filled out a questionnaire at 3 months post-treatment which consisted of questions regarding the grade of improvement of skin and recommendation of the procedure. The clinical results were apparent between 2 and 3 weeks after the treatment. All patients confirmed an improvement in skin texture and quality. The most significant improvement was seen in pigmentation and pliability. No complications were reported. Nano fat seems to be a safe and effective treatment for scar treatment and skin rejuvenation.

Keywords: fat grafting, fat transfer, microfat, nanofat

Procedia PDF Downloads 83
1232 Fracture Pressure Predict Based on Well Logs of Depleted Reservoir in Southern Iraqi Oilfield

Authors: Raed H. Allawi

Abstract:

Formation pressure is the most critical parameter in hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation. Specifically, predicting abnormal pressures (high formation pressures) and subnormal pressure zones can provide valuable information to minimize uncertainty for anticipated drilling challenges and risks. This study aims to interpret and delineate the pore and fracture pressure of the Mishrif reservoir in the southern Iraq Oilfield. The data required to implement this study included acoustic compression wave, gamma-ray, bulk density, and drilling events. Furthermore, supporting these models needs the pore pressure measurement from the Modular Formation Dynamics Tester (MDT). Many measured values of pore pressure were used to validate the accurate model. Using sonic velocity approaches, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was about 4%. The fracture pressure results were consistent with the measurement data, actual drilling report, and events. The model's results will be a guide for successful drilling in future wells in the same oilfield.

Keywords: pore pressure, fracture pressure, overburden pressure, effective stress, drilling events

Procedia PDF Downloads 83
1231 The Role of Law Corruption and Culture in Investment Fund Manager Fees

Authors: Samir Assal

Abstract:

This paper considers an international sample of venture capital and private equity funds to assess the role of law, corruption and culture in setting fund manager fees in terms of their fixed management fees, carried interest performance fees, clawbacks of fees and cash versus share distributions of fees. The data highlight a role of legal conditions in shaping fees paid to fund managers. In countries with better legal conditions, fixed fees are lower, carried interest fees are higher, clawbacks are less likely, and share distributions are more likely. These findings suggest legal conditions help to align the interests of managers and shareholders. More specifically, we examine which element of legal conditions matter most, and discover that corruption levels play a pronounced role in shaping fund manager fee contracts. We also show that cultural forces such as Hofstede’s measures of power distance and uncertainty avoidance likewise play a role in influencing fees.

Keywords: managerial compensation, incentive contracts, private equity, law and finance

Procedia PDF Downloads 310
1230 Product Form Bionic Design Based on Eye Tracking Data: A Case Study of Desk Lamp

Authors: Huan Lin, Liwen Pang

Abstract:

In order to reduce the ambiguity and uncertainty of product form bionic design, a product form bionic design method based on eye tracking is proposed. The eye-tracking experiment is designed to calculate the average time ranking of the specific parts of the bionic shape that the subjects are looking at. Key bionic shape is explored through the experiment and then applied to a desk lamp bionic design. During the design case, FAHP (Fuzzy Analytic Hierachy Process) and SD (Semantic Differential) method are firstly used to identify consumer emotional perception model toward desk lamp before product design. Through investigating different desk lamp design elements and consumer views, the form design factors on the desk lamp product are reflected and all design schemes are sequenced after caculation. Desk lamp form bionic design method is combined the key bionic shape extracted from eye-tracking experiment and priority of desk lamp design schemes. This study provides an objective and rational method to product form bionic design.

Keywords: Bionic design; Form; Eye tracking; FAHP; Desk lamp

Procedia PDF Downloads 229
1229 Laser Beam Micro-Drilling Effect on Ti-6Al-4V Titanium Alloy Sheet Properties

Authors: Petr Homola, Roman Růžek

Abstract:

Laser beam micro-drilling (LBMD) is one of the most important non-contact machining processes of materials that are difficult to machine by means oeqf conventional machining methods used in various industries. The paper is focused on LBMD knock-down effect on Ti-6Al-4V (Grade 5) titanium alloy sheets properties. Two various process configurations were verified with a focus on laser damages in back-structure parts affected by the process. The effects of the LBMD on the material properties were assessed by means of tensile and fatigue tests and fracture surface analyses. Fatigue limit of LBMD configurations reached a significantly lower value between 15% and 30% of the static strength as compared to the reference raw material with 58% value. The farther back-structure configuration gives a two-fold fatigue life as compared to the closer LBMD configuration at a given stress applied.

Keywords: fatigue, fracture surface, laser beam micro-drilling, titanium alloy

Procedia PDF Downloads 156
1228 Studies on H2S Gas Sensing Performance of Al2O3-Doped ZnO Thick Films at Ppb Level

Authors: M. K. Deore

Abstract:

The thick films of undoped and Al2O3 doped- ZnO were prepared by screen printing technique. AR grade (99.9 % pure) Zinc Oxide powder were mixed mechanochemically in acetone medium with Aluminium Chloride (AlCl2) material in various weight percentages such as 0.5, 1, 3 and 5 wt % to obtain Al2O3 - ZnO composite. The prepared materials were sintered at 1000oC for 12h in air ambience and ball milled to ensure sufficiently fine particle size. The electrical, structural and morphological properties of the films were investigated. The X-ray diffraction analysis of pure and doped ZnO shows the polycrystalline nature. The surface morphology of the films was studied by SEM. The final composition of each film was determined by EDAX analysis. The gas response of undoped and Al2O3- doped ZnO films were studied for different gases such as CO, H2, NH3, and H2S at operating temperature ranging from 50 oC to 450 o C. The pure film shows the response to H2S gas (500ppm) at 300oC while the film doped with 3 wt.% Al2O3 gives the good response to H2S gas(ppb) at 350oC. The selectivity, response and recovery time of the sensor were measured and presented.

Keywords: thick films, ZnO-Al2O3, H2S gas, sensitivity, selectivity, response and recovery time

Procedia PDF Downloads 421
1227 Reducing Uncertainty of Monte Carlo Estimated Fatigue Damage in Offshore Wind Turbines Using FORM

Authors: Jan-Tore H. Horn, Jørgen Juncher Jensen

Abstract:

Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue estimations may be improved for the same computational efforts. The method is applied to a bottom-fixed, monopile-supported large offshore wind turbine, which is a non-linear and dynamically sensitive system. Different curve fitting techniques to the fatigue damage distribution have been used depending on the sea-state dependent response characteristics, and the effect of a bi-linear S-N curve is discussed. Finally, analyses are performed on several environmental conditions to investigate the long-term applicability of this multistep method. Wave loads are calculated using state-of-the-art theory, while wind loads are applied with a simplified model based on rotor thrust coefficients.

Keywords: fatigue damage, FORM, monopile, Monte Carlo, simulation, wind turbine

Procedia PDF Downloads 263