Search results for: flood risk perception

Authors: Abubakar Abdullahi

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Large amount of human energy are spent gathering and collecting fuel wood in many parts of the world, most especially in rural areas. In Nigeria fuel wood serves million houses in both rural and urban centers for various energy needs. It’s a common scene in many places while passing by roads to see bunch of woods being sold by the road sides. Even though the resource serves millions of peoples energy needs it has serious consequences on our environment, thus sustainable environment. Majority of the rural areas who rely heavily on the firewood as a means of energy are not aware of the dangers associated with the uses of the products. The aim of this work is to look into the utilization of fuel wood among rural dwellers and their perception about the dangers associated with it and how to sustain our environment. The methodology used involves a structured questionnaire designed with the question about the utilization and perception. The questionnaire is administered to the people of Kashere, a rural area in Gombe state. The result clearly shows there is a high level of ignorance among rural dwellers on the dangers of using fuel wood and how it constitute the depletion of the immediate environment. However, what is surprising in the research is the people’s readiness for alternative energy sources. The research recommend that proper orientation and sensitization is required to create education and awareness to the rural dwellers as well as provide alternative energy that is available, environment friendly and accessible to address the problems.

Keywords: energy, rural dwellers, environment, fuel wood, resources

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Authors: Ashim Sattar, Ajanta Goswami, Anil V. Kulkarni

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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) highly contributes to mountain hazards in the Himalaya. Over the past decade, high altitude lakes in the Himalaya has been showing notable growth in their size and number. The key reason is rapid retreat of its glacier front. Hydrodynamic modeling GLOF using shallow water equations (SWE) would result in understanding its impact in the downstream region. The present study incorporates remote sensing based ice thickness modeling to determine the future extent of the Dhauliganga Lake to map the over deepening extent around the highest lake in the Dhauliganga basin. The maximum future volume of the lake calculated using area-volume scaling is used to model a GLOF event. The GLOF hydrograph is routed along the channel using one dimensional and two dimensional model to understand the flood wave propagation till it reaches the 1st hydropower station located 72 km downstream of the lake. The present extent of the lake calculated using SENTINEL 2 images is 0.13 km². The maximum future extent of the lake, mapped by investigating the glacier bed has a calculated scaled volume of 3.48 x 106 m³. The GLOF modeling releasing the future volume of the lake resulted in a breach hydrograph with a peak flood of 4995 m³/s at just downstream of the lake. Hydraulic routing

Keywords: GLOF, glacial lake outburst floods, mountain hazard, Central Himalaya, future projection

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Authors: Saheb Yousefi, Kim T. Zebehazy, Parviz Sharifi Daramadi, Tahereh Najafi Fard, Kevin Murfitt

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Context: Children with visual impairments often face challenges in their cognitive, motor, and social development. Sensory-motor and spatial perception therapies can be beneficial for these children, but many existing programs only focus on a limited set of therapies. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of a rehabilitation program for sensory- motor and spatial perception in reducing the fear of mobility in visually impaired children. Research Aim: The aim of this study is to determine if a rehabilitation program based on parent-child interaction can reduce the fear of mobility in visually impaired children. Methodology: This study uses a semi-experimental approach with an uneven control group design. Visually impaired children aged 10 to 14 and their parents from the Board of the Blind and Visually Impaired in Tehran Province were included in the study. The sample was divided into experimental and control groups, with a total of 30 participants. The experimental group participated in a rehabilitation program for sensory-motor and spatial perception based on parent-child interaction, while the control group did not receive this intervention. Data was collected using questionnaires on transportation issues and analyzed using multivariate and univariate mixed analysis of variance tests. Findings: The analysis of the data showed that the fear of movement was significantly improved in the experimental group compared to the control group after the intervention. Theoretical Importance: This study highlights the effectiveness of a rehabilitation program for sensory- motor and spatial perception based on parent-child interaction in reducing the fear of mobility in visually impaired children. It contributes to the existing knowledge by demonstrating the positive impact of this type of intervention on the cognitive, motor, and social development of these children. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: Data was collected through the use of questionnaires administered to the children before and after the intervention. The data was analyzed using multivariate and univariate mixed analysis of variance tests to examine the effects of the rehabilitation program. Questions Addressed: This study addresses the question of whether a rehabilitation program based on parent-child interaction can reduce the fear of mobility in visually impaired children. Conclusion: The findings of this study support the effectiveness of the sensory-motor and spatial perception rehabilitation program based on parent-child interaction in reducing the fear of movement in visually impaired children. This intervention can be considered as a suitable method to enhance the fear of mobility in these children.

Keywords: vision impairment, sensory-motor rehabilitation, space perception, parent-child interaction, fear of movement.

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Authors: Luca Zarrilli, Miguel Brito, Marianna Cappucci

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Tourists recently awarded Lisbon as the best city break destination in Europe. This article analyses the various types of tourist experiences in the city of Lisbon. The research method is the questionnaire, aimed at investigating the choices of tourists in the area of mobility, their perception of the quality of life and their level of appreciation of neighbourhoods, landmarks and infrastructures. There is an obvious link between the quality of life and the quality of the tourist experience, but it is difficult to measure it. Through this questionnaire, we hope to have made a small contribution to the understanding of the perceptive sphere of the individual and his choices in terms of behaviour, which is an essential element of any strategy for tourism marketing.

Keywords: Lisbon, mobility, quality of life, perception, tourism, hospitality

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Risk management has been gaining extensive focus from international organizations like Committee of Sponsoring Organizations and Financial Stability Board, and, the foundation of such an effective and efficient risk management system lies in a strong risk governance structure. In view of this, an attempt (perhaps a first of its kind) has been made to develop a risk governance index, which could be used as proxy for quality of risk governance structures. The index (normative framework) is based on eleven variables, namely, size of board, board diversity in terms of gender, proportion of executive directors, executive/non-executive status of chairperson, proportion of independent directors, CEO duality, chief risk officer (CRO), risk management committee, mandatory committees, voluntary committees and existence/non-existence of whistle blower policy. These variables are scored on a scale of 1 to 5 with the exception of the variables, namely, status of chairperson and CEO duality (which have been scored on a dichotomous scale with the score of 3 or 5). In case there is a legal/statutory requirement in respect of above-mentioned variables and there is a non-compliance with such requirement a score of one has been envisaged. Though there is no legal requirement, for the larger part of study, in context of CRO, risk management committee and whistle blower policy, still a score of 1 has been assigned in the event of their non-existence. Recognizing the importance of these variables in context of risk governance structure and the fact that the study basically focuses on risk governance, the absence of these variables has been equated to non-compliance with a legal/statutory requirement. Therefore, based on this the minimum score is 15 and the maximum possible is 55. In addition, an attempt has been made to explore the determinants of this index. For this purpose, the sample consists of non-financial companies (429) that constitute S&P CNX500 index. The study covers a 10 years period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015. Given the panel nature of data, Hausman test was applied, and it suggested that fixed effects regression would be appropriate. The results indicate that age and size of firms have significant positive impact on its risk governance structures. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of governance structures. In contrast, profitability (positive relationship), leverage (negative relationship) and growth (negative relationship) do not have significant impact on quality of risk governance structures. The value of rho indicates that about 77.74% variation in risk governance structures is due to firm specific factors. Given the fact that each firm is unique in terms of its risk exposure, risk culture, risk appetite, and risk tolerance levels, it appears reasonable to assume that the specific conditions and circumstances that a company is beset with, could be the biggest determinants of its risk governance structures. Given the recommendations put forth in the paper (particularly for regulators and companies), the study is expected to be of immense utility in an important yet neglected aspect of risk management.

Keywords: corporate governance, ERM, risk governance, risk management

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Authors: Chang-Fa Liu, Yi-Ting Wang, Yuan Liu, Hai-Feng Wei, Lei Fang, Jin Li

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Heavy metals in sediments can cause adverse ecological effects while it exceeds a given criteria. The present study investigated sediment environmental quality, pollutant enrichment, ecological risk, and source identification for copper, cadmium, lead, zinc, mercury, and arsenic in the sediments collected from tidal flat marsh of Shuangtai estuary, China. The arithmetic mean integrated pollution index, geometric mean integrated pollution index, fuzzy integrated pollution index, and principal component score were used to characterize sediment environmental quality; fuzzy similarity and geo-accumulation Index were used to evaluate pollutant enrichment; correlation matrix, principal component analysis, and cluster analysis were used to identify source of pollution; environmental risk index and potential ecological risk index were used to assess ecological risk. The environmental qualities of sediment are classified to very low degree of contamination or low contamination. The similar order to element background of soil in the Liaohe plain is region of Sanjiaozhou, Honghaitan, Sandaogou, Xiaohe by pollutant enrichment analysis. The source identification indicates that correlations are significantly among metals except between copper and cadmium. Cadmium, lead, zinc, mercury, and arsenic will be clustered in the same clustering as the first principal component. Copper will be clustered as second principal component. The environmental risk assessment level will be scaled to no risk in the studied area. The order of potential ecological risk is As > Cd > Hg > Cu > Pb > Zn.

Keywords: ecological risk assessment, heavy metals, sediment, marsh, Shuangtai estuary

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Authors: Najeeb Ullah Khan

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Background: The receptor activator NF-κβ ligand (RANKL) and Osteoprotegerin (OPG) polymorphisms have been associated with the progression of breast cancer to bone metastasis. Here, we aimed to investigate the association of RANKL and OPG gene polymorphism with breast to bone metastasis in the Pashtun population, Pakistan. Methods: Genomic DNA was obtained from all the study subjects (106 breast cancer, 58 breast to bone metastasis, and 51 healthy controls). RANKL (rs9533156) and OPG (rs2073618, rs3102735) polymorphisms were genotyped using Tetra-ARMS PCR. Results: Our results indicated that the frequencies of OPG (rs3102735) risk allele and genotypes carrying risk allele in breast cancer vs healthy control (C- p=0.005; CC- p=0.0208; TC- p=0.0181), bone metastasis vs healthy control (C- p=0.0211; CC- p=0.0153; TC- p=0.0775), and breast cancer vs breast to bone metastasis (C- p=0.0001; CC- p=0.0001; TC- p=0.001) were found significantly associated with disease risk. However, there was no significant association observed for OPG (rs2073618) risk allele and risk allele containing genotypes in all study groups. Similarly, RANKL (rs9533156) risk alleles and corresponding genotypes in breast cancer vs healthy control (C- p=0.0001; CC- p=0.0001; TC- p=0.0084), bone metastasis vs healthy control (C- p=0.0001; CC- p=0.0001; TC- p=0.5593), and breast cancer vs breast to bone metastasis (C- p=0.0185; CC- p=0.6077; TC- p=0.1436) showed significant association except for the risk allele carrying genotypes in breast cancer to bone metastasis (TC, p=0.1436; CC, p=0.6077). Conclusion: OPG (rs3102735) and RANKL (rs9533156) showed significant association with breast to bone metastasis, while OPG (rs2073618) didn’t show a significant association with breast to bone metastasis in Pashtun population of Pakistan. However, more investigation will be required to disseminate the results while gene sequencing or whole-exome sequencing.

Keywords: breast cancer, bone metastasis, OPG, RANKL, polymorphism

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Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac J. W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

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The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of maternal smoking for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, smoking, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eighteen studies of maternal smoking during pregnancy and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that maternal smoking during pregnancy is a significant risk factor for overweight and obesity; mothers who smoke during pregnancy are at a greater risk for developing obesity or overweight; the quantity of cigarettes consumed by the mother during pregnancy influenced the odds of offspring overweight and/or obesity. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: childhood obesity, overweight, smoking, parents, risk factors

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Authors: Ouabo Emmanuel Romaric, Amougou Armathe

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Background and aim: The study of impacts of floods and landslides at a small scale, specifically in the urban areas of developing countries is done to provide tools and actors for a better management of risks in such areas, which are now being affected by climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the hydrometeorological vulnerabilities associated with flooding and urban landslides to propose adaptation measures. Methods: Climatic data analyses were done by calculation of indices of climate change within 50 years (1960-2012). Analyses of field data to determine causes, the level of risk and its consequences on the area of study was carried out using SPSS 18 software. The cartographic analysis and GIS were used to refine the work in space. Then, spatial and terrain analyses were carried out to determine the morphology of field in relation with floods and landslide, and the diffusion on the field. Results: The interannual changes in precipitation has highlighted the surplus years (21), the deficit years (24) and normal years (7). Barakat method bring out evolution of precipitation by jerks and jumps. Floods and landslides are correlated to high precipitation during surplus and normal years. Data field analyses show that populations are conscious (78%) of the risks with 74% of them exposed, but their capacities of adaptation is very low (51%). Floods are the main risk. The soils are classed as feralitic (80%), hydromorphic (15%) and raw mineral (5%). Slope variation (5% to 15%) of small hills and deep valley with anarchic construction favor flood and landslide during heavy precipitation. Mismanagement of waste produce blocks free circulation of river and accentuate floods. Conclusion: Vulnerability of population to hydrometeorological risks in Yaoundé VI is the combination of variation of parameters like precipitation, temperature due to climate change, and the bad planning of construction in urban areas. Because of lack of channels for water to circulate due to saturation of soils, the increase of heavy precipitation and mismanagement of waste, the result are floods and landslides which causes many damages on goods and people.

Keywords: climate change, floods, hydrometeorological, vulnerability

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Authors: Muna Mohamed Omer Mirghani

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This paper responds to one of the key national development strategies and a typical challenge in the Gash Basin as well as in different parts of Sudan, namely managing water scarcity in view of climate change impacts in minor water systems sustaining over 50% of the Sudan population. While now focusing on the Gash river basin, the ultimate aim is to replicate the same approach in similar water systems in central and west Sudan. The key objective of the paper is the identification of outcome-based water governance interventions in Gash Basin, guided by the global Sustainable Development Goal six (SDG 6 on water and sanitation) and the Sudan water resource policy framework. The paper concluded that improved water resources management of the Gash Basin is a prerequisite for ensuring desired policy outcomes of groundwater use and flood risk management purposes. Analysis of various water governance dimensions in the Gash indicated that the operationalization of a Basin-level institutional reform is critically focused on informed actors and adapted practices through knowledge and technologies along with the technical data and capacity needed to make that. Adapting the devolved Institutional structure at state level is recommended to strengthen the Gash basin regulatory function and improve compliance of groundwater users.

Keywords: water governance, Gash Basin, integrated groundwater management, Sudan

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Authors: Adelakun O. Johnson

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The quest to mitigate the probable adverse effects of geopolitical risk on FDI inflows tends to result in more frequent changes in economic policies and, as a result, heightened policy uncertainty. In this regard, we extend the literature on the dynamics of FDI inflows to include the hypothesis of the possibility of geopolitical risk escalating the adverse effects of economic policy uncertainty on FDI inflows. To test the robustness of this hypothesis, we use the cases of different economic groups characterized by different levels of economic development and varying degrees of FDI confidence. Employing an ARDL-based dynamic panel data model that accounts for both non-stationarity and heterogeneity effects, we show result that suggests GPR and EPU retard the inflows of FDI in both economies but mainly in the short-run situation. In the long run, however, higher EPU not attributed to GPR is likely to boost the inflows of FDI rather than retarding, at least in the case of the G7 economy.

Keywords: FDI inflows, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, panel ARDL model

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Authors: Henry Lau, Dilupa Nakandala, Li Zhao

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In today’s business, it is well-recognized that risk is an important factor that needs to be taken into consideration before a decision is made. Studies indicate that both the number of risks faced by organizations and their potential consequences are growing. Supply chain risk management has become one of the major concerns for practitioners and researchers. Supply chain leaders and scholars are now focusing on the importance of managing supply chain risk. In order to meet the challenge of managing and mitigating supply chain risk (SCR), we must first identify the different dimensions of SCR and assess its relevant probability and severity. SCR has been classified in many different ways, and there are no consistently accepted dimensions of SCRs and several different classifications are reported in the literature. Basically, supply chain risks can be classified into two dimensions namely disruption risk and operational risk. Disruption risks are those caused by events such as bankruptcy, natural disasters and terrorist attack. Operational risks are related to supply and demand coordination and uncertainty, such as uncertain demand and uncertain supply. Disruption risks are rare but severe and hard to manage, while operational risk can be reduced through effective SCM activities. Other SCRs include supply risk, process risk, demand risk and technology risk. In fact, the disorganized classification of SCR has created confusion for SCR scholars. Moreover, practitioners need to identify and assess SCR. As such, it is important to have an overarching framework tying all these SCR dimensions together for two reasons. First, it helps researchers use these terms for communication of ideas based on the same concept. Second, a shared understanding of the SCR dimensions will support the researchers to focus on the more important research objective: operationalization of SCR, which is very important for assessing SCR. In general, fresh food supply chain is subject to certain level of risks, such as supply risk (low quality, delivery failure, hot weather etc.) and demand risk (season food imbalance, new competitors). Effective strategies to mitigate fresh food supply chain risk are required to enhance operations. Before implementing effective mitigation strategies, we need to identify the risk sources and evaluate the risk level. However, assessing the supply chain risk is not an easy matter, and existing research mainly use qualitative method, such as risk assessment matrix. To address the relevant issues, this paper aims to analyze the risk factor of the fresh food supply chain using an approach comprising both fuzzy logic and hierarchical holographic modeling techniques. This novel approach is able to take advantage the benefits of both of these well-known techniques and at the same time offset their drawbacks in certain aspects. In order to develop this integrated approach, substantial research work is needed to effectively combine these two techniques in a seamless way, To validate the proposed integrated approach, a case study in a fresh food supply chain company was conducted to verify the feasibility of its functionality in a real environment.

Keywords: fresh food supply chain, fuzzy logic, hierarchical holographic modelling, operationalization, supply chain risk

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

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This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization

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Authors: Yanping He-Ulbricht, Marc Oliver Rieger

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Based on survey data collected from people with Chinese roots living in Germany, this paper examines the impact of assimilation degree and language priming (Chinese or German) on individuals’ perceived fairness of economic and social differences and their attitude towards these. The results show that both the language used and the length of time spent in a foreign culture have a significant impact. Subjects who had spent less than 10 years in Germany demonstrated a higher readiness to accept government intervention in markets with price limits than those who had lived there longer. Subjects who were asked and answered in German perceived the current economic situation as less fair and were also less inclined to accept inequality, even when it leads to a Pareto improvement. While the difference in fairness perception of inequality was a cultural effect, the difference in attitudes towards government intervention was rather a result of learning process. The findings imply that both learning processes of individuals and culture play an important role in perception and preferences regarding social and economic differences.

Keywords: assimilation, bilingualism, cross-cultural comparison, income inequality, language priming, price fairness

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Authors: Weiming Hu, Xu Li, Xiaonan Li, Zhong Xu, Li Yuan, Xuan Dong

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Maneuver decision-making plays a critical role in high-performance intelligent driving. This paper proposes a risk assessment-based decision-making network (RADMN) to address the problem of driving strategy for the commercial vehicle. RADMN integrates two networks, aiming at identifying the risk degree of collision and rollover and providing decisions to ensure the effectiveness and reliability of driving strategy. In the risk assessment module, risk degrees of the backward collision, forward collision and rollover are quantified for hazard recognition. In the decision module, a deep reinforcement learning based on multi-objective optimization (DRL-MOO) algorithm is designed, which comprehensively considers the risk degree and motion states of each traffic participant. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, Prescan/Simulink joint simulation was conducted in highway scenarios. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed RADMN. The output driving strategy can guarantee the safety and provide key technical support for the realization of autonomous driving of commercial vehicles.

Keywords: decision-making strategy, risk assessment, multi-objective optimization, commercial vehicle

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Authors: Gülcan Taşkıran, Ülkü Tatar Baykal

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Aim: To identify nurses’ perceived competencies for disaster preparedness. Background: Recently, the number of disasters has increased worldwide. Since disasters often strike without warning, healthcare providers, especially nurses must be prepared with appropriate competencies for disaster procedures. Nurses’ perceptions of their own competencies for disaster preparedness need to be evaluated to aid in the creation of effective national plans and educational programs. Design: This study was conducted with a descriptive and cross-sectional design. Methods: Nurses’ perceptions were assessed using the 13-item Demographic Profile Questionnaire that is based on previous literature and the 45-item Nurses’ Perception of Core Competencies for Disaster Preparedness Scale (NPCDPS). Data were collected from June to September 2014 from 406 (79.9% return rate) Turkish nurses working in the western region of Turkey. Results: At the end of the study, it was found that out of the nurses whose mean age was 31.27 ± 5.86 and mean of working time was 8.07 ± 6.60 by the time vast majority of the nurses were women (85.7%), married (59.4%), bachelor’s degree holder (88.2%) and service nurses (56.2%). The most potential disaster that nurses think is an earthquake (70.9%) by the time majority of nurses consider having a role as a nurse at every stage of disasters. The mean total point score of nurses’ perception of disaster preparedness was 4.62. The mean total point score of the nurses from the Nurses’ Perception of Core Competencies for Disaster Preparedness Scale was 133.96. When the subscales’ mean scores are examined, the highest average of the mean score is for Technical Skills (44.52), and the lowest is for Critical Thinking Skills (10.47). When the subscales of Nurses’ Perception of Core Competencies for Disaster Preparedness Scale compared with sex, marital status and education level out of independent variable of nurses there is no significant difference (p > 0.05); compared with age group, working years, duty and being with a disaster out of independent variable of nurses there is a significant difference (p ≤ 0.05). Conclusion: Nurses generally perceive themselves as sufficient at a ‘medium level’ in terms of meeting the core competencies that are required for disaster preparedness. Nurses are not adequately prepared for disasters, but they are aware of the need for such preparation and disaster education. Disaster management training should be given to all nurses in their basic education.

Keywords: disaster competencies, disaster management, disaster nursing, disaster preparedness, nursing, nursing administration, Turkish nurses

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Authors: Paschal Ohalehi

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper, which is part of a PhD thesis is to examine the role of risk based approach in minimising financial crime in the charity sector as well as offer recommendations to improving the quality of charity regulation whilst still retaining risk based approach as a regulatory framework and also making a case for a new regulatory model. Increase in financial crimes in the charity sector has put the role of regulation in minimising financial crime up for debates amongst researchers and practitioners. Although previous research has addressed the regulation of charities, research on the role of risk based approach to minimising financial crime in the charity sector is limited. Financial crime is a concern for all organisation including charities. Design/methodology/approach - This research adopts a social constructionist’s epistemological position. This research is carried out using semi structured in-depth interviews amongst randomly selected 24 charity trustees divided into three classes: 10 small charities, 10 medium charities and 4 large charities. The researcher also interviewed 4 stakeholders (NFA, Charity Commission and two different police forces in terms of size and area of coverage) in the charity sector. Findings - The results of this research show that reliance on risk based approach to financial crime in the sector is weak and fragmented with the research pointing to a clear evidence of disconnect between the regulator and the regulated leading to little or lack of regulation of trustees’ activities, limited monitoring of charities and lack of training and awareness on financial crime in the sector. Originality – This paper shows how regulation of charities in general and risk based approach in particular can be improved in order to meet the expectations of the stakeholders, the public, the regulator and the regulated.

Keywords: risk, risk based approach, financial crime, fraud, self-regulation

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Authors: Paul W. Murray, Marco Barajas

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Recent changes in supply chains, especially globalization and collaboration, have created new risks for enterprises of all sizes. A variety of complex frameworks, often based on enterprise risk management strategies have been presented under the heading of Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM). The literature on promotes the benefits of a robust SCRM strategy; however, implementing SCRM is difficult and resource demanding for Large Enterprises (LEs), and essentially out of reach for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). This research debunks the idea that SCRM is necessary for all enterprises and instead proposes a simple and effective Vendor Selection Template (VST). Empirical testing and a survey of supply chain practitioners provide a measure of validation to the VST. The resulting VSTis a valuable contribution because is easy to use, provides practical results, and is sufficiently flexible to be universally applied to SMEs.

Keywords: multiple regression analysis, supply chain management, risk assessment, vendor selection

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Authors: Herng-Sheng Lee, Chi-Yi Chen, Wan-Ting Huang, Li-Jen Chang, Solomon Chih-Cheng Chen, Hsin-Yi Yang

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A variety of gastrointestinal disorders, such as Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, and coeliac disease, are recognized as risk factors for osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. One recent study suggests that individuals with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) might also be at increased risk of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. Up to now, the association between IBS and the risk of fractures at different anatomic sites occurrences is not completely clear. We conducted a population-based cohort analysis to investigate the fracture risk of IBS in comparison with non-IBS group. We identified 29,505 adults aged ≥ 20 years with newly diagnosed IBS using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database in 2000-2012. A comparison group was constructed of patients without IBS who were matched according to gender and age. The occurrence of fracture was monitored until the end of 2013. We analyzed the risk of fracture events to occur in IBS by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Patients with IBS had a higher incidence of osteoporotic fractures compared with non-IBS group (12.34 versus 9.45 per 1,000 person-years) and an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.27, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.20 – 1.35). Site specific analysis showed that the IBS group had a higher risk of fractures for spine, forearm, hip and hand than did the non-IBS group. With further stratification for gender and age, a higher aHR value for osteoporotic fractures in IBS group was seen across all age groups in males, but seen in elderly females. In addition, female, elderly, low income, hypertension, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, and depressive disorders as independent osteoporotic fracture risk factors in IBS patients. The IBS is considered as a risk factor for osteoporotic fractures, particularly in female individuals and fracture sites located at the spine, forearm, hip and hand.

Keywords: irritable bowel syndrome, fracture, gender difference, longitudinal health insurance database, public health

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Authors: Daniel Alfonso Reséndiz-García, Luis Antonio García-Villanueva

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As a result of the high industrial activity, which arises from the search to satisfy the needs of products and services for society, several chemical accidents have occurred, causing serious damage to different sectors: human, economic, infrastructure and environmental losses. Historically, with the study of this chemical accidents, it has been determined that the causes are mainly due to human errors (inexperienced personnel, negligence, lack of maintenance and deficient risk analysis). The industries have the aim to increase production and reduce costs. However, it should be kept in mind that the costs involved in risk studies, implementation of barriers and safety systems is much cheaper than paying for the possible damages that could occur in the event of an accident, without forgetting that there are things that cannot be replaced, such as human lives.Therefore, it is of utmost importance to implement risk studies in all industries, which provide information for prevention and planning. The aim of this study is to compare risk methodologies by identifying the consequences of accidents related to the storage of flammable, dangerous goods for decision making and emergency response.The methodologies considered in this study are qualitative and quantitative risk analysis and consequence analysis. The latter, by means of modeling software, which provides radius of affectation and the possible scope and magnitude of damages.By using risk analysis, possible scenarios of occurrence of chemical accidents in the storage of flammable substances are identified. Once the possible risk scenarios have been identified, the characteristics of the substances, their storage and atmospheric conditions are entered into the software.The results provide information that allows the implementation of prevention, detection, control, and combat elements for emergency response, thus having the necessary tools to avoid the occurrence of accidents and, if they do occur, to significantly reduce the magnitude of the damage.This study highlights the importance of risk studies applying tools that best suited to each case study. It also proves the importance of knowing the risk exposure of industrial activities for a better prevention, planning and emergency response.

Keywords: chemical accidents, emergency response, flammable substances, risk analysis, modeling

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Authors: A. A. Adebayo, A. O. Ogunkeyede, A. O. Adeigbe

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Digital globalisation and yarn of Nigeria society to overcome the digital divide have resulted in contamination of soil by heavy metals (HMs) from e-waste activities at Alaba international market, Lagos, Nigeria. The aim of this research was to determine the concentration of various metals {Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), and Lead (Pb)} and identify their ecological and health risks for the people within the study area. A total of 60 soil samples were collected at Alaba market study area. Two types of samples were collected from each sampling points: topsoil (0-15 cm), subsoil (15 -30 cm). The metal concentration results showed that the soils were heavily contaminated by HMs at topsoil and subsoil. The geoaccummulation and ecological risk indices revealed high pollution level from all studied site. The health risk assessment results suggested that there is high possibility of carcinogenic risk to humans because the carcinogenic risk via corresponding exposure pathways exceeded the safety limit of 10-6 (the acceptable level of carcinogenic risk for human). Furthermore, inhalation of soil particles is the main exposure pathway for Cr to enter the human body for all ages. Children in the vicinity are exposed more to ingestion of Pb since they tend to eat earth (pica) and repeatedly suck their fingers. This study provides basic information to create awareness for a need to introduce pollution control measures and the need to protect the ecosystem and human health within the study area at Alaba international market.

Keywords: contaminated soil, ecological risk, hazard index, risk factor, exposure pathways, heavy metals

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Wong Ka Fai

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Introduction: Many students are worried before an examination; that is a common picture worldwide. Health problems from stress before examination were insomnia, tiredness, isolation, stomach upset, and anxiety. Nursing students experienced high stress from the examination. Guided imagery is a healing process of applying imagination to help the body heal, survive, or live well. It can bring about significant physiological and biochemical changes, which can trigger the recovery process. A study of nursing students improving their anxiety before examination with guided imagery was proposed. Aim: The aim of this study was to explore the outcome of guided imagery on nursing students’ anxiety before examination in Hong Kong. Method: The qualitative study method was used. 16 first-year students studying nursing programme were invited to practice guided imagery to improve their anxiety before the examination period. One week before the examination, the semi-structured interviews with these students were carried out by the researcher. Result: From the content analysis of interview data, these nursing students showed considerable similarities in their anxiety perception. Nursing students’ perceived improved anxiety was evidenced by a reduction of stressful feelings, improved physical health, satisfaction with daily activities, and enhanced skills for solving problems and upcoming situations. Conclusion: This study indicated that guided imagery can be used as an alternative measure to improve students’ anxiety and psychological problems.

Keywords: nursing students, perception, anxiety, guided imagery

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Onur Arugaslan, Ajay Samant, Devrim Yaman

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Financial advisors and investors seek new assets which could potentially increase portfolio returns and decrease portfolio risk. Cryptocurrencies represent a relatively new asset class which could serve in both these roles. There has been very little research done in the area of the risk/return tradeoff in a portfolio consisting of fixed income assets, stocks, and cryptocurrency. The objective of this study is a rigorous examination of this issue. The data used in the study are the monthly returns on 4-week US Treasury Bills, S&P Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Stock Index. The methodology used in the study is the application Modern Portfolio Theory to evaluate the risk-adjusted returns of portfolios with varying combinations of these assets, using Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen Indexes, as well as the Sortino and Modigliani measures. The results of the study would include the ranking of various investment portfolios based on their risk/return characteristics. The conclusions of the study would include objective empirical inference for investors who are interested in including cryptocurrency in their asset portfolios but are unsure of the risk/return implications.

Keywords: financial economics, portfolio diversification, fixed income securities, cryptocurrency, stock indexes

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: René A. Sørensen, Søren Skovsen, Peter Christiansen, Henrik Karstoft

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Autonomous agricultural machines act in stochastic surroundings and therefore, must be able to perceive the surroundings in real time. This perception can be achieved using image sensors combined with advanced machine learning, in particular Deep Learning. Deep convolutional neural networks excel in labeling and perceiving color images and since the cost of high-quality RGB-cameras is low, the hardware cost of good perception depends heavily on memory and computation power. This paper investigates the possibility of designing lightweight convolutional neural networks for semantic segmentation (pixel wise classification) with reduced hardware requirements, to allow for embedded usage in autonomous agricultural machines. Using compression techniques, a lightweight convolutional neural network is designed to perform real-time semantic segmentation on an embedded platform. The network is trained on two large datasets, ImageNet and Pascal Context, to recognize up to 400 individual classes. The 400 classes are remapped into agricultural superclasses (e.g. human, animal, sky, road, field, shelterbelt and obstacle) and the ability to provide accurate real-time perception of agricultural surroundings is studied. The network is applied to the case of autonomous grass mowing using the NVIDIA Tegra X1 embedded platform. Feeding case-specific images to the network results in a fully segmented map of the superclasses in the image. As the network is still being designed and optimized, only a qualitative analysis of the method is complete at the abstract submission deadline. Proceeding this deadline, the finalized design is quantitatively evaluated on 20 annotated grass mowing images. Lightweight convolutional neural networks for semantic segmentation can be implemented on an embedded platform and show competitive performance with regards to accuracy and speed. It is feasible to provide cost-efficient perceptive capabilities related to semantic segmentation for autonomous agricultural machines.

Keywords: autonomous agricultural machines, deep learning, safety, visual perception

Procedia PDF Downloads 396

Authors: Amanda R. R. Oliveira, Caio F. F. C. Cunha, Juan C. L. Junior, Amorim H. P. Junior

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Children deaths are traumatic events that most often can be prevented. The technology of prevention and intervention in cases of infant deaths is available at low cost and with solid evidence and favorable results, however, with low access cover. Weight is one of the main factors related to death in the neonatal period, so the newborns of low birth weight are a population at high risk of death in the neonatal period, especially early neonatal period. This paper describes the development of a model based in neural network analysis to predict the mortality risk rating in the early neonatal period for newborns of low birth weight to identify the individuals of this population with increased risk of death. The neural network applied was trained with a set of newborns data obtained from Brazilian health system. The resulting network presented great success rate in identifying newborns with high chances of death, which demonstrates the potential for using this tool in an integrated manner to the health system, in order to direct specific actions for improving prognosis of newborns.

Keywords: low birth weight, neonatal death risk, neural network, newborn

Procedia PDF Downloads 448

Authors: Jennifer Reese, Josh Biber, Howard Weeks, Rachel Hess

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Aim: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Screen (EPDS) is a mental health screening for pregnant women that has been widely used over the last 30 years. This screen is typically given in clinic on paper to patients throughout pregnancy and postpartum. The screen helps identify patients who may be at risk for pregnancy related depression or postpartum depression. In early 2016, University of Utah Health implemented an electronic version of the EPDS as well as the PROMIS Depression v1.0 instrument for all pregnant and postpartum patients. We asked patients both instruments to understand coverage of patients identified as at risk for each instrument. Methods: The EPDS is currently administered as part of our PRO template for pregnant and postpartum women. We also administer the PROMIS Depression as part of a standard PRO assessment to all patients. Patients are asked to complete an assessment no more often than every eight weeks. PRO assessments are either completed at home or in clinic with a tablet computer. Patients with a PROMIS score of ≥ 65 or a EPDS score of ≥ 10 were identified as at risk for depression Results: From April 2016 to April 2017, 1,330 unique patients were screened at University of Utah Health in OBGYN clinics with both the EPDS and PROMIS depression instrument on the same day. There were 28 (2.1%) patients were identified as at risk for depression using the PROMIS depression screen, while 262 (19.7%) patients were identified as at risk for postpartum depression using the EPDS screen. Overall, 27 (2%) patients were identified as at risk on both instruments. Conclusion: The EPDS identified a higher percent (19.7%) of patients at risk for depression when compared to the PROMIS depression (2.1%). Ninety-six percent of patients who screened positive on the PROMIS depression screen also screened positive on the EPDS screen. Mental health is an important component to a patient’s overall wellbeing. We want to ensure all patients, particularly pregnant or post-partum women, receive screening and treatment when necessary. A combination of screenings may be necessary to provide the overall best care for patients and to identify the highest percentage of patients at risk.

Keywords: patient reported outcomes, mental health, maternal, depression

Procedia PDF Downloads 370

Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Worldwide regulators, practitioners and researchers view risk-disclosure as one of the most important steps that will promote corporate accountability and transparency. Recognizing this growing significance of risk disclosures, the paper first develops a risk disclosure index. Covering 69 risk items/themes, this index is developed by employing thematic content analysis and encompasses three attributes of disclosure: namely, nature (qualitative or quantitative), time horizon (backward-looking or forward-looking) and tone (no impact, positive impact or negative impact). As the focus of study is on substantive rather than symbolic disclosure, content analysis has been carried out manually. The study is based on non-financial companies of Nifty500 index and covers a ten year period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015, thus yielding 3,872 annual reports for analysis. The analysis reveals that (on an average) only about 14% of risk items (i.e. about 10 out 69 risk items studied) are being disclosed by Indian companies. Risk items that are frequently disclosed are mostly macroeconomic in nature and their disclosures tend to be qualitative, forward-looking and conveying both positive and negative aspects of the concerned risk. The second objective of the paper is to gauge the factors that affect the level of disclosures in annual reports. Given the panel nature of data, and possible endogeneity amongst variables, Diff-GMM regression has been applied. The results indicate that age and size of firms have a significant positive impact on disclosure quality, whereas growth rate does not have a significant impact. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of disclosures. In terms of corporate governance variables, board size, board independence, CEO duality, presence of CRO and constitution of risk management committee appear to be significant factors in determining the quality of risk disclosures. It is noteworthy that the study contributes to literature by putting forth a variant to existing disclosure indices that not only captures the quantity but also the quality of disclosures (in terms of semantic attributes). Also, the study is a first of its kind attempt in a prominent emerging market i.e. India. Therefore, this study is expected to facilitate regulators in mandating and regulating risk disclosures and companies in their endeavor to reduce information asymmetry.

Keywords: risk disclosure, voluntary disclosures, corporate governance, Diff-GMM

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Muhammad Arzim Naim, Saiful Azhar Rosly, Mohamad Sahari Nordin

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The objective of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the rise of Shariah non-compliance risk that can bring Islamic banks to succumb to monetary loss. Prior literatures have never analyzed such risk in details despite lots of it arguing on the validity of some Shariah compliance products. The Shariah non-compliance risk in this context is looking to the potentially failure of the facility to stand from the court test say that if the banks bring it to the court for compensation from the defaulted clients. The risk may also arise if the customers refuse to make the financing payments on the grounds of the validity of the contracts, for example, when relinquishing critical requirement of Islamic contract such as ownership, the risk that may lead the banks to suffer loss when the customer invalidate the contract through the court. The impact of Shariah non-compliance risk to Islamic banks is similar to that of legal risks faced by the conventional banks. Both resulted into monetary losses to the banks respectively. In conventional banking environment, losses can be in the forms of summons paid to the customers if they won the case. In banking environment, this normally can be in very huge amount. However, it is right to mention that for Islamic banks, the subsequent impact to them can be rigorously big because it will affect their reputation. If the customers do not perceive them to be Shariah compliant, they will take their money and bank it in other places. This paper provides new insights of risks faced by credit intensive Islamic banks by providing a new extension of knowledge with regards to the Shariah non-compliance risk by identifying its individual components that directly affecting the risk together with empirical evidences. Not limited to the Islamic banking fraternities, the regulators and policy makers should be able to use findings in this paper to evaluate the components of the Shariah non-compliance risk and make the necessary actions. The paper is written based on Malaysia’s Islamic banking practices which may not directly related to other jurisdictions. Even though the focuses of this study is directly towards to the Bay Bithaman Ajil or popularly known as BBA (i.e. sale with deferred payments) financing modality, the result from this study may be applicable to other Islamic financing vehicles.

Keywords: Islamic banking, Islamic finance, Shariah Non-compliance risk, Bay Bithaman Ajil (BBA), principal axis factoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Daniel Mokatsanyane, Johnny Jansen Van Rensburg

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This paper is a concise introduction of the risk management on the water derivatives market. Water, a new commodity in the market, is one of the most important commodity on earth. As important to life and planet as crops, metals, and energy, none of them matters without water. This paper presents a brief overview of water as a tradable commodity via a new first of its kind futures contract on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index (NQH2O) derivative instrument, TheGeneralised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be the used to measure the water price volatility of the instrument and its performance since it’s been traded. describe the main products and illustrate their usage in risk management and also discuss key challenges with modeling and valuation of water as a traded commodity and finally discuss how water derivatives may be taken as an alternative asset investment class.

Keywords: water derivatives, commodity market, nasdaq veles california water Index (NQH2O, water price, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Erwin L. Descallar

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Food safety is crucial in protecting the health of consumers, maintaining integrity in the entire food industry, and ensuring regulatory compliance. Food is a universal need for survival, and everyone is at risk of engaging in improper food handling, which increases vulnerability to foodborne illnesses. The level of knowledge or awareness and meat storage practices of students are behaviors influenced by various demographic factors. The Health Belief Model examines the relationship of such demographic factors towards the attitude, perception, and actions of individuals on perceived risk. This study aims to analyze and understand the correlation of said behaviors with course programs, prior food poisoning experience, and food handling of university students. The study employed randomized responses from 89 university students (n=89) under the College of Science at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines–Sta. Mesa (Manila). The results were subjected to measures of central tendency for score ranking and inferential statistics. The statistics were compared using Pearson ‘r’ Product Moment Correlation to determine the degree of relationship between the knowledge and practices on meat storage and safety. No statistically significant differences were found between the course program of students, food poisoning experiences, level of knowledge, and awareness regarding proper meat storage practices. However, increased frequency and involvement in meat handling have shown a positive correlation, indicating that there is a correlation between food handling and proper meat storage practices of university students.

Keywords: meat storage practices, food handling, food safety, meat science and technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 7