Search results for: explanations for the probable causes of the errors

Authors: Majid Bayatian, Mohammadreza Ashouri

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Releasing hazardous chemicals is one of the major problems for office buildings in the chemical industry and, therefore, environmental risks are inherent to these environments. The adverse health effects of the airborne concentration of benzene have been a matter of significant concern, especially in oil refineries. The chronic and acute adverse health effects caused by benzene exposure have attracted wide attention. Acute exposure to benzene through inhalation could cause headaches, dizziness, drowsiness, and irritation of the skin. Chronic exposures have reported causing aplastic anemia and leukemia at the occupational settings. Association between chronic occupational exposure to benzene and the development of aplastic anemia and leukemia were documented by several epidemiological studies. Numerous research works have investigated benzene emissions and determined benzene concentration at different locations of the refinery plant and stated considerable health risks. The high cost of industrial control measures requires justification through lifetime health risk assessment of exposed workers and the public. In the present study, a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model has been proposed to assess the exposure risk of office building around a refinery due to its release of benzene. For simulation, GAMBIT, FLUENT, and CFD Post software were used as pre-processor, processor, and post-processor, and the model was validated based on comparison with experimental results of benzene concentration and wind speed. Model validation results showed that the model is highly validated, and this model can be used for health risk assessment. The simulation and risk assessment results showed that benzene could be dispersion to an office building nearby, and the exposure risk has been unacceptable. According to the results of this study, a validated CFD model, could be very useful for decision-makers for control measures and possibly support them for emergency planning of probable accidents. Also, this model can be used to assess exposure to various types of accidents as well as other pollutants such as toluene, xylene, and ethylbenzene in different atmospheric conditions.

Keywords: health risk assessment, office building, Benzene, numerical simulation, CFD

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Authors: Miho Yamashita

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In recent years, there have been attempts to introduce Machine Translation (MT) into foreign language teaching, especially in writing instructions. This is because the performance of neural machine translation has improved dramatically since 2016, and some university instructors started to introduce MT translations to their students as a "good model" to learn from. However, MT is still not perfect, and there are many incorrect translations. In order to translate the intended text into a foreign language, it is necessary to edit the original manuscript written in the native language (pre-edit) and revise the translated foreign language text (post-edit). The latter is considered especially difficult for users without a high proficiency level of foreign language. Therefore, the author allowed her students to use MT in her writing class in one of the private universities in Japan and investigated 1) how groups of students with different English proficiency levels revised MT translations when translating Japanese manuscripts into English and 2) whether the post-edit process differed when the students revised alone or in pairs. The results showed that in 1), certain non-post-edited grammatical errors were found regardless of their proficiency levels, indicating the need for teacher intervention, and in 2), more appropriate corrections were found in pairs, and their frequent use of a dictionary was also observed. In this presentation, the author will discuss how MT writing instruction can be integrated effectively in an aim to achieve multimodal foreign language education.

Keywords: machine translation, writing instruction, pre-edit, post-edit

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Authors: Akemi Nasu, Keiko Matsumoto

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Rehabilitation for cancer requires setting up individual goals for each patient and an approach that properly fits the stage of cancer when putting into practice. In order to cope with the daily changes in the patients' condition, the establishment of a good cooperative relationship between the nurses and the physiotherapists, occupational therapists, and speech-language-hearing therapists (therapists) becomes essential. This study will focus on the present situation of the cooperation between nurses and therapists, especially the speech-language-hearing therapists, and aim to elucidate what develops there. A semi-structured interview was conducted targeted at a physical therapist having practical experience in working in collaboration with nurses. The contents of the interview were transcribed and converted to data, and the data was encoded and categorized with sequentially increasing degrees of abstraction to conduct a qualitative explorative factor analysis of the data. When providing ethical explanations, particular care was taken to ensure that participants would not be subjected to any disadvantages as a result of participating in the study. In addition, they were also informed that their privacy would be ensured and that they have the right to decline to participate in the study. In addition, they were also informed that the results of the study would be announced publicly at an applicable nursing academic conference. This study has been approved following application to the ethical committee of the university with which the researchers are affiliated. The survey participant is a female speech-language-hearing therapist in her forties. As a result of the analysis, 6 categories were extracted consisting of 'measures to address appetite and aspiration pneumonia prevention', 'limitation of the care a therapist alone could provide', 'the all-inclusive patient- supportive care provided by nurses', 'expand the beneficial cooperation with nurses', 'providing education for nurses on the swallowing function utilizing videofluoroscopic examination of swallowing', 'enhancement of communication including conferences'. In order to improve the team performance, and for the teamwork competency necessary for the provision of safer care, mutual support is essential. As for the cooperation between nurses and therapists, this survey indicates that the maturing of the cooperation between professionals in order to improve nursing professionals' knowledge and enhance communication will lead to an improvement in the quality of the rehabilitation for cancer.

Keywords: cancer rehabilitation, nurses, speech-language-hearing therapists, interprofessional work

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Authors: Owonikoko Abayomi Dele

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Epilepsy is an unresolved disease that needs urgent attention. It is a brain disorder that affects over sixty-five (65) million people around the globe. Despite the availability of commercial anti-epileptic drugs, the war against this unmet condition is yet to be resolved. Most epilepsy patients are resistant to available anti-epileptic medications thus the need for affordable novel therapy against epilepsy is a necessity. Numerous phytochemicals have been reported for their potency, efficacy and safety as therapeutic agents against many diseases. This study investigated 99 isolated phytochemicals from Chasmanthera dependens and Carissa edulis against carbonic anhydrase (ii) drug target. The absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion and toxicity (ADMET) of the isolated compounds were examined using admet SAR-2 web server while Swiss ADME was used to analyze the oral bioavailability, drug-likeness and lead-likeness properties of the selected leads. PASS web server was used to predict the biological activities of selected leads while other important physicochemical properties and interactions of the selected leads with the active site of the target after successful molecular docking simulation with the pyrx virtual screening tool were also examined. The results of these study identified seven lead compounds; C49- alpha-carissanol (-7.6 kcal/mol), C13- Catechin (-7.4 kcal/mol), C45- Salicin (-7.4 kcal/mol), C6- Bisnorargemonine (-7.3 kcal/mol), C36- Pallidine (-7.1 kcal/mol), S4- Lacosamide (-7.1 kcal/mol), and S7- Acetazolamide (-6.4 kcal/mol) for CA II (3HS4 receptor). These leads compounds are probable inhibitors of this drug target due to the observed good binding affinities and favourable interactions with the active site of the drug target, excellent ADMET profiles, PASS Properties, drug-likeness, lead-likeness and oral bioavailability properties. The identified leads have better binding energies as compared to the binding energies of the two standards. Thus, seven identified lead compounds can be developed further towards the development of new anti-epileptic medications.

Keywords: drug-likeness, phytochemicals, carbonic anhydrases, metalloeazymes, active site, ADMET

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Authors: Atilla Bayram

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This paper presents the trajectory tracking control of a spatial redundant hybrid manipulator. This manipulator consists of two parallel manipulators which are a variable geometry truss (VGT) module. In fact, each VGT module with 3-degress of freedom (DOF) is a planar parallel manipulator and their operational planes of these VGT modules are arranged to be orthogonal to each other. Also, the manipulator contains a twist motion part attached to the top of the second VGT module to supply the missing orientation of the endeffector. These three modules constitute totally 7-DOF hybrid (parallel-parallel) redundant spatial manipulator. The forward kinematics equations of this manipulator are obtained, then, according to these equations, the inverse kinematics is solved based on an optimization with the joint limit avoidance. The dynamic equations are formed by using virtual work method. In order to test the performance of the redundant manipulator and the controllers presented, two different desired trajectories are followed by using the computed force control method and a switching control method. The switching control method is combined with the computed force control method and genetic algorithm. In the switching control method, the genetic algorithm is only used for fine tuning in the compensation of the trajectory tracking errors.

Keywords: computed force method, genetic algorithm, hybrid manipulator, inverse kinematics of redundant manipulators, variable geometry truss

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Authors: Veronica Sorgato, Jeremy Belhassen, Philippe Chartier, Roddy Sihanath, Nicolas Docquiere, Jean-Yves Giraud

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We analyzed the image-guided radiotherapy method used by the TomoTherapy® System (Accuray Corp.) for patient repositioning in clinical routine. The TomoTherapy® System computes X, Y, Z and roll displacements to match the reference CT, on which the dosimetry has been performed, with the pre-treatment MV CT. The accuracy of the repositioning method has been studied according to the treatment localization. For this, a database of 18774 treatment sessions, performed during 2 consecutive years (2016-2017 period) has been used. The database includes the X, Y, Z and roll displacements proposed by TomoTherapy® System as well as the manual correction of these proposals applied by the radiation therapist. This manual correction aims to further improve the repositioning based on the clinical situation and depends on the structures surrounding the target tumor tissue. The statistical analysis performed on the database aims to define repositioning limits to be used as security and guiding tool for the manual adjustment implemented by the radiation therapist. This tool will participate not only to notify potential repositioning errors but also to further improve patient positioning for optimal treatment.

Keywords: accuracy, IGRT MVCT, image-guided radiotherapy megavoltage computed tomography, statistical analysis, tomotherapy, localization

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Authors: Tapan Upadhyay, Aqib Siddiqui, Sameer Khan

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Railway crossing system in India is a manually operated level crossing system, either manned or unmanned. The main aim is to protect pedestrians and vehicles from colliding with trains, which pass at regular intervals, as India has the largest and busiest railway network. But because of human error and negligence, every year thousands of lives are lost due to accidents at railway crossings. To avoid this, we suggest a solution, by using Programmable Logical Controller (PLC) based automatic system, which will automatically control the barrier as well as roadblocks to stop people from crossing while security warning is given. Often people avoid security warning, and pass two-wheelers from beneath the barrier, while the train is at a distance away. This paper aims at reducing the fatality and accident rate by controlling barrier and roadblocks using sensors which sense the incoming train and vehicles and sends a signal to PLC. The PLC in return sends a signal to barrier and roadblocks. Once the train passes, the barrier and roadblocks retrieve back, and the passage is clear for vehicles and pedestrians to cross. PLC’s are used because they are very flexible, cost effective, space efficient, reduces complexity and minimises errors. Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) is used to monitor the functioning.

Keywords: level crossing, PLC, sensors, SCADA

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Authors: Rami Al-Sadi

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The assignment of lexical stress in English to its correct syllable is an enormous challenge to EFL learners, especially if their first language (L1) phonology is very different from English phonology. Arabic-speaking EFL learners not only stumble very frequently when it comes to placing the lexical stress in a given word, but they also seem to relegate the role of lexical stress as unimportant, mainly because in Arabic, unlike in English, lexical stress is not phonemic. This study aims at exploring the possible benefits of utilizing spectrographic representations of English words correctly pronounced, for the purpose of finding out how these spectrograms can provide a visual aid to the learners and help them rectify their stress placement errors as they see in real time spectrograms of the correct pronunciations juxtaposed on a computer screen with spectrograms of their own pronunciations for easy comparison. The study involved 120 students from the English Department at Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University in Saudi Arabia. 60 participants were taught the English lexical stress rules and also received spectrographic guidance on pronunciation; the other 60 received only verbal instruction on the stress rules and verbal feedback on their pronunciations. Statistical results showed that when the learners had the opportunity to ‘see’ their pronunciation mistakes, they were three times more likely to rectify their placement of lexical stress.

Keywords: Arabic-speaking EFL learners, lexical stress, pronunciation, spectrographic representation, stress placement

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Authors: Kristine Tuliao

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Although it is of primary concern to ensure that supervisors behave appropriately, research shows that unethical behaviors are prevalent and may cost organizations’ economic and reputational damages. Nevertheless, few studies have considered the roles of the different levels of values in shaping one’s ethicality, and the examination of the possible mediation in the process of their influence has been rarely done. To address this gap, this research employs Merton’s anomie theory in designing a mediation analysis to test the direct impacts of national cultural values on supervisors’ justification of unethical behaviors as well as their indirect impacts through personal values. According to Merton’s writings, individual behaviors are affected by the society’s culture given its role in defining the members’ goals as well as the acceptable methods of attaining those goals. Also, Merton’s framework suggests that individuals develop their personal values depending on the assimilation of their society’s culture. Using data of 9,813 supervisors across 30 countries, results of hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) indicated that national cultural values, specifically assertiveness, performance orientation, in-group collectivism, and humane orientation, positively affect supervisors’ unethical inclination. Some cultural values may encourage unethical tendencies, especially if they urge and pressure individuals to attain purely monetary success. In addition, some of the influence of national cultural values went through personal monetary and non-monetary success values, indicating partial mediation. These findings substantiated the assertions of Merton’s anomie theory that national cultural values influence supervisors’ ethics through their integration with personal values. Given that some of the results contradict Merton’s anomie theory propositions, complementary arguments, such as incomplete assimilation of culture, and the probable impact of job position in perceptions, values, and behaviors, could be the plausible rationale for these outcomes. Consequently, this paper advances the understanding of differences in national and personal values and how these factors impact supervisors’ justification of unethical behaviors. Alongside these contributions, suggestions are presented for the public and organizations to craft policies and procedures that will minimize the tendency of supervisors to commit unethical acts.

Keywords: mediation model, national culture, personal values, supervisors' ethics

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Authors: Magaji Zainab Musa, Nordin M. A. Rahman, Julaily Aida Jusoh

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This paper discusses the formal specification of web services applications for digital reference services (WSDRS). Digital reference service involves a user requesting for help from a reference librarian and a reference librarian responding to the request of a user all by electronic means. In most cases users do not get satisfied while using digital reference service due to delay of response of the librarians. Another may be due to no response or due to librarian giving an irrelevant solution to the problem submitted by the user. WDSRS is an informal model that claims to reduce the problems of digital reference services in libraries. It uses web services technology to provide efficient way of satisfying users’ need in the reference section of libraries. But informal model is in natural language which is inconsistent and ambiguous that may cause difficulties to the developers of the system. In order to solve this problem we decided to convert the informal specifications into formal specifications. This is supposed to reduce the overall development time and cost. Formal specification can be used to provide an unambiguous and precise supplement to natural language descriptions. It can be rigorously validated and verified leading to the early detection of specification errors. We use Z language to develop the formal model and verify it with Z/EVES theorem prover tool.

Keywords: formal, specifications, web services, digital reference services

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Authors: Annamarie Rannou, Horace Bartilow

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Global concerns about xenophobic activity are on the rise across developed and developing countries. And yet, social science scholarship has almost exclusively examined xenophobia as a prejudice of advanced western nations. This research argues that the fields of study related to xenophobia must be re-conceptualized within a framework of ethnicity in order to level the playing field for cross-regional inquiry. This study develops a new concept of ethnic xenophobia and integrates existing explanations of anti-migrant expression into theories of ethnic threat. We argue specifically that political elites convert economic, political, and social threats at the national level into ethnic xenophobic activity in order to gain or maintain political advantage among their native selectorate. We expand on Stuart Kaufman’s theory of symbolic politics to underscore the methods of mobilization used against migrants and the power of elite discourse in moments of national crises. An original dataset is used to examine over 35,000 cases of ethnic xenophobic activity targeting refugees. Wordscores software is used to develop a unique measure of anti-migrant elite rhetoric which captures the symbolic discourse of elites in their mobilization of ethnic xenophobic activism. We use a Structural Equation Model (SEM) to test the causal pathways of the theory across seventy-two developed and developing countries from 1990 to 2016. A framework of Most Different Systems Design (MDSD) is also applied to two pairs of developed-developing country cases, including Kenya and the Netherlands and Lebanon and the United States. This study sheds tremendous light on an underrepresented area of comparative research in migration studies. It shows that the causal elements of anti-migrant activity are far more similar than existing research suggests which has major implications for policy makers, practitioners, and academics in fields of migration protection and advocacy. It speaks directly to the mobilization of myths surrounding refugees, in particular, and the nationalization of narratives of migration that may be neutralized by the development of deeper associational relationships between natives and migrants.

Keywords: refugees, ethnicity, symbolic politics, elites, migration, comparative politics

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Authors: Belyayev P. E., Makeyeva I. R., Mastyuk D. A., Pigasov E. E.

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Previously, the phrase ”hydrogen safety” was often used in terms of NPP safety. Due to the rise of interest to “green” and, particularly, hydrogen power engineering, the problem of hydrogen safety at industrial facilities has become ever more urgent. In Russia, the industrial production of hydrogen is meant to be performed by placing a chemical engineering plant near NPP, which supplies the plant with the necessary energy. In this approach, the production of hydrogen involves a wide range of combustible gases, such as methane, carbon monoxide, and hydrogen itself. Considering probable incidents, sudden combustible gas outburst into open space with further ignition is less dangerous by itself than ignition of the combustible mixture in the presence of many pipelines, reactor vessels, and any kind of fitting frames. Even ignition of 2100 cubic meters of the hydrogen-air mixture in open space gives velocity and pressure that are much lesser than velocity and pressure in Chapman-Jouguet condition and do not exceed 80 m/s and 6 kPa accordingly. However, the space blockage, the significant change of channel diameter on the way of flame propagation, and the presence of gas suspension lead to significant deflagration acceleration and to its transition into detonation or quasi-detonation. At the same time, process parameters acquired from the experiments at specific experimental facilities are not general, and their application to different facilities can only have a conventional and qualitative character. Yet, conducting deflagration and detonation experimental investigation for each specific industrial facility project in order to determine safe infrastructure unit placement does not seem feasible due to its high cost and hazard, while the conduction of numerical experiments is significantly cheaper and safer. Hence, the development of a numerical method that allows the description of reacting flows in domains with complex geometry seems promising. The base for this method is the modification of Kuropatenko method for calculating shock waves recently developed by authors, which allows using it in Eulerian coordinates. The current work contains the results of the development process. In addition, the comparison of numerical simulation results and experimental series with flame propagation in shock tubes with orifice plates is presented.

Keywords: CFD, reacting flow, DDT, gas explosion

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Authors: B. Siva Kumar Reddy, B. Lakshmi

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WiMAX is a high speed broadband wireless access technology that adopted OFDM/OFDMA techniques to supply higher data rates with high spectral efficiency. However, OFDM suffers in view of high Peak to Average Power Ratio (PAPR) and high affect to synchronization errors. In this paper, the high PAPR problem is solved by using phase modulation to get Constant Envelop Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (CE-OFDM). The synchronization failures are brought down by employing a frequency lock loop, Poly phase clock synchronizer, Costas loop and blind equalizers such as Constant Modulus Algorithm (CMA) equalizer and Sign Kurtosis Maximization Adaptive Algorithm (SKMAA) equalizers. The WiMAX physical layer is executed on Software Defined Radio (SDR) prototype by utilizing USRP N210 as hardware and GNU Radio as software plat-forms. A SNR estimation is performed on the signal received through USRP N210. To empathize wireless propagation in specific environments, a sliding correlator wireless channel sounding system is designed by using SDR testbed.

Keywords: BER, CMA equalizer, Kurtosis equalizer, GNU Radio, OFDM/OFDMA, USRP N210

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Authors: Hassan Karimi, Fred Piercy, Ruoxi Chen, Ana L. Jaramillo-Sierra, Wei-Ning Chang, Manjushree Palit, Catherine Martosudarmo, Angelito Antonio

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Background: The two psychotherapy camps, the randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and the common factors model, have competitively claimed specific explanations for therapy effectiveness. Recently, scholars called for empirical evidence to show the role of common factors in therapeutic outcome in marriage and family therapy. Purpose: This cross-national study aims to explore how clinicians, across different nations and theoretical orientations, attribute the contribution of common factors to therapy outcome. Method: A brief common factors questionnaire (CFQ-with a Cronbach’s Alpha, 0.77) was developed and administered in seven nations. A series of statistical analyses (paired-samples t-test, independent sample t-test, ANOVA) were conducted: to compare clinicians perceived contribution of total common factors versus model-specific factors, to compare each pair of common factors’ categories, and to compare clinicians from collectivistic nations versus clinicians from individualistic nation. Results: Clinicians across seven nations attributed 86% to common factors versus 14% to model-specific factors. Clinicians attributed 34% of therapeutic change to client’s factors, 26% to therapist’s factors, 26% to relationship factors, and 14% to model-specific techniques. The ANOVA test indicated each of the three categories of common factors (client 34%, therapist 26%, relationship 26%) showed higher contribution in therapeutic outcome than the category of model specific factors (techniques 14%). Clinicians with psychology degree attributed more contribution to model-specific factors than clinicians with MFT and counseling degrees who attributed more contribution to client factors. Clinicians from collectivistic nations attributed larger contributions to therapist’s factors (M=28.96, SD=12.75) than the US clinicians (M=23.22, SD=7.73). The US clinicians attributed a larger contribution to client’s factors (M=39.02, SD=1504) than clinicians from the collectivistic nations (M=28.71, SD=15.74). Conclusion: The findings indicate clinicians across the globe attributed more than two thirds of therapeutic change to CFs, which emphasize the training of the common factors model in the field. CFs, like model-specific factors, vary in their contribution to therapy outcome in relation to specific client, therapist, problem, treatment model, and sociocultural context. Sociocultural expectations and norms should be considered as a context in which both CFs and model-specific factors function toward therapeutic goals. Clinicians need to foster a cultural competency specifically regarding the divergent ways that CFs can be activated due to specific sociocultural values.

Keywords: common factors, model-specific factors, cross-national survey, therapist cultural competency, enhancing therapist efficacy

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Authors: Ahmet Kayabasi, Ali Akdagli

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In this study, three robust predicting methods, namely artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and support vector machine (SVM) were used for computing the resonant frequency of A-shaped compact microstrip antennas (ACMAs) operating at UHF band. Firstly, the resonant frequencies of 144 ACMAs with various dimensions and electrical parameters were simulated with the help of IE3D™ based on method of moment (MoM). The ANN, ANFIS and SVM models for computing the resonant frequency were then built by considering the simulation data. 124 simulated ACMAs were utilized for training and the remaining 20 ACMAs were used for testing the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models. The performance of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models are compared in the training and test process. The average percentage errors (APE) regarding the computed resonant frequencies for training of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM were obtained as 0.457%, 0.399% and 0.600%, respectively. The constructed models were then tested and APE values as 0.601% for ANN, 0.744% for ANFIS and 0.623% for SVM were achieved. The results obtained here show that ANN, ANFIS and SVM methods can be successfully applied to compute the resonant frequency of ACMAs, since they are useful and versatile methods that yield accurate results.

Keywords: a-shaped compact microstrip antenna, artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), support vector machine (SVM)

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Authors: Justin Tang

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Balance tests are frequently used to diagnose concussions on the sidelines of sporting events. Manual scoring, however, is labor intensive and subjective, and many concussions go undetected. This study institutes a novel approach to conducting the Balance Error Scoring System (BESS) more quantitatively using Microsoft’s gaming system Kinect, which uses a contactless sensor and several cameras to receive data and estimate body limb positions. Using a machine learning approach, Visual Gesture Builder, and a deterministic approach, MATLAB, we tested whether the Kinect can differentiate between “correct” and erroneous stances of the BESS. We created the two separate solutions by recording test videos to teach the Kinect correct stances and by developing a code using Java. Twenty-two subjects were asked to perform a series of BESS tests while the Kinect was collecting data. The Kinect recorded the subjects and mapped key joints onto their bodies to obtain angles and measurements that are interpreted by the software. Through VGB and MATLAB, the videos are analyzed to enumerate the number of errors committed during testing. The resulting statistics demonstrate a high correlation between manual scoring and the Kinect approaches, indicating the viability of the use of remote tracking devices in conducting concussion tests.

Keywords: automated, concussion detection, contactless sensors, microsoft kinect

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Authors: Vinay C. Doranalu, Amba Shetty

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In recent days due to climate change, there is a large variation in spatial distribution of daily rainfall within a small region. Rainfall is one of the main end climatic variables which affect spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. The real task postured by the change in climate is identification, estimation and understanding the uncertainty of rainfall. This study intended to analyze the spatial variations and temporal trends of daily precipitation using high resolution (0.25º x 0.25º) gridded data of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). For the study, 38 grid points were selected in the study area and analyzed for daily precipitation time series (113 years) over the period 1901-2013. Grid points were divided into two zones based on the elevation and situated location of grid points: Low Land (exposed to sea and low elevated area/ coastal region) and High Land (Interior from sea and high elevated area/western Ghats). Time series were applied to examine the spatial analysis and temporal trends in each grid points by non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator to perceive the nature of trend and magnitude of slope in trend of rainfall. Pettit-Mann-Whitney test is applied to detect the most probable change point in trends of the time period. Results have revealed remarkable monotonic trend in each grid for daily precipitation of the time series. In general, by the regional cluster analysis found that increasing precipitation trend in shoreline region and decreasing trend in Western Ghats from recent years. Spatial distribution of rainfall can be partly explained by heterogeneity in temporal trends of rainfall by change point analysis. The Mann-Kendall test shows significant variation as weaker rainfall towards the rainfall distribution over eastern parts of the Western Ghats region of Karnataka.

Keywords: change point analysis, coastal region India, gridded rainfall data, non-parametric

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Authors: Souad Romdhane, Lotfi Belkacem

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When referring to actuarial analysis of lifetime, only models accounting for observable risk factors have been developed. Within this context, Cox proportional hazards model (CPH model) is commonly used to assess the effects of observable covariates as gender, age, smoking habits, on the hazard rates. These covariates may fail to fully account for the true lifetime interval. This may be due to the existence of another random variable (frailty) that is still being ignored. The aim of this paper is to examine the shared frailty issue in the Cox proportional hazard model by including two different parametric forms of frailty into the hazard function. Four estimated methods are used to fit them. The performance of the parameter estimates is assessed and compared between the classical Cox model and these frailty models through a real-life data set from the Quebec Pension Plan and then using a more general simulation study. This performance is investigated in terms of the bias of point estimates and their empirical standard errors in both fixed and random effect parts. Both the simulation and the real dataset studies showed differences between classical Cox model and shared frailty model.

Keywords: life insurance-pension plan, survival analysis, risk factors, cox proportional hazards model, multivariate failure-time data, shared frailty, simulations study

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Authors: Matteo Bonaventura, Giancarlo Giudici

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This paper analyses the valuation process of companies listed on the Italian Exchange in the period 2000-2009 at their Initial Public Offering (IPO). One the most common valuation techniques declared in the IPO prospectus to determine the offer price is the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. We develop a ‘reverse engineering’ model to discover the short term profitability implied in the offer prices. We show that there is a significant optimistic bias in the estimation of future profitability compared to ex-post actual realization and the mean forecast error is substantially large. Yet we show that such error characterizes also the estimations carried out by analysts evaluating non-IPO companies. The forecast error is larger the faster has been the recent growth of the company, the higher is the leverage of the IPO firm, the more companies issued equity on the market. IPO companies generally exhibit better operating performance before the listing, with respect to comparable listed companies, while after the flotation they do not perform significantly different in term of return on invested capital. Pre-IPO book building activity plays a significant role in partially reducing the forecast error and revising expectations, while the market price of the first day of trading does not contain information for further reducing forecast errors.

Keywords: initial public offerings, DCF, book building, post-IPO profitability drop

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Authors: Silvio Ricardo Rodrigues Sanches, Bianca Cogo Barbosa, Beatriz Regina Brum, Cléber Gimenez Corrêa

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To evaluate the quality of a segmentation algorithm, the authors use subjective or objective metrics. Although subjective metrics are more accurate than objective ones, objective metrics do not require user feedback to test an algorithm. Objective metrics require subjective experiments only during their development. Subjective experiments typically display to users some videos (generated from frames with segmentation errors) that simulate the environment of an application domain. This user feedback is crucial information for metric definition. In the subjective experiments applied to develop some state-of-the-art metrics used to test segmentation algorithms, the videos displayed during the experiments did not contain audio. Audio is an essential component in applications such as videoconference and augmented reality. If the audio influences the user’s perception, using only videos without audio in subjective experiments can compromise the efficiency of an objective metric generated using data from these experiments. This work aims to identify if the audio influences the user’s perception of segmentation quality in background substitution applications with audio. The proposed approach used a subjective method based on formal video quality assessment methods. The results showed that audio influences the quality of segmentation perceived by a user.

Keywords: background substitution, influence of audio, segmentation evaluation, segmentation quality

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Authors: Yousif Mohamed Y. Abdallah

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This is an experimental study deals with detection, measurement and analysis of the periodic physiological organ motion during external beam radiotherapy; to improve the accuracy of the radiation field placement, and to reduce the exposure of healthy tissue during radiation treatments. The importance of this study is to detect the maximum path of the mobile structures during radiotherapy delivery, to define the planning target volume (PTV) and irradiated volume during both inspiration and expiration period and to verify the target volume. In addition to its role to highlight the importance of the application of Intense Guided Radiotherapy (IGRT) methods in the field of radiotherapy. The results showed (body contour was equally (3.17 + 0.23 mm), for left lung displacement reading (2.56 + 0.99 mm) and right lung is (2.42 + 0.77 mm) which the radiation oncologist to take suitable countermeasures in case of significant errors. In addition, the use of the image registration technique for automatic position control is predicted potential motion. The motion ranged between 2.13 mm and 12.2 mm (low and high). In conclusion, individualized assessment of tumor mobility can improve the accuracy of target areas definition in patients undergo Sterostatic RT for stage I, II and III lung cancer (NSCLC). Definition of the target volume based on a single CT scan with a margin of 10 mm is clearly inappropriate.

Keywords: respiratory motion, external beam radiotherapy, image processing, lung

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Authors: Chia-Ling Hsieh, Kankanit Potikit

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Metadiscourse refers to linguistic resources employed by writers to organize text and interact with readers. While metadiscourse has received considerable attention within the field of discourse analysis, few studies have explored the use of metadiscourse in email, one of the most popular forms of computer-mediated communication. Furthermore, the diversity of cross-linguistic research required to uncover the influence of cultural factors on metadiscourse use is lacking. The present study compares metadiscourse markers employed in Chinese and Thai-language request emails with the purpose of discovering cross-cultural similarities and differences that are meaningful and applicable to foreign language teaching. The analysis is based on a corpus of 200 request emails: 100 composed in Chinese and 100 in Thai, with half of the emails from each language data set addressed to professors and the other half addressed to classmates. Adopting Hyland’s model as an analytical framework, two primary categories of metadiscourse are identified. Textual metadiscourse helps to create text coherence, while interpersonal metadiscourse functions to convey authorial stance. Results of the study make clear that both Chinese and Thai-language emails use significantly more interpersonal markers than textual markers, indicating that email, as a unique communicative medium, is characterized by high degrees of concision and interactivity. Users of both languages further deploy similar patterns in writing emails to recipients of different social statuses. Compared with emails addressed to classmates, emails addressed to professors are notably longer and include more transition and engagement markers. Nevertheless, cultural factors do play a role. Emails composed in Thai, for example, include more textual markers than those in Chinese, as Thai favors formal expressions and detailed explanations, while in contrast, emails composed in Chinese employ more interpersonal markers than those in Thai, since Chinese tends to emphasize recipient involvement and attitudinal warmth. These findings thereby demonstrate the combined effects of email as a communicative medium, social status, and cultural values on metadiscourse usage. The study concludes by applying these findings to pedagogical suggestions for teaching email writing to Chinese and Thai language learners based on similarities and differences in metadiscourse strategy between the two languages.

Keywords: discourse analysis, email, metadiscourse, writing instruction

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Authors: Vidya Iyer, Suresh Babu Loganathan, Yuan Hwa Lee, Kwong Fah Koh

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Introduction: It has been recommended that every patient undergoes careful preoperative evaluation in a preoperative clinic to improve theatre utilization, reduce bed occupancy and avoid unnecessary cancellation due to inadequate optimisation, communication and administrative errors. It also gives an opportunity to counsel patients regarding different aspects of anaesthesia. Methodology: A retrospective audit of all the patients seen in preoperative assessment clinic, referral letters of all the patients postponed / referred to other sub specialities in the perioperative period from June 2012 - June 2013 was done. In our clinic, we retrieved patient records who were awaiting surgery pending clearance by other sub specialities. Those patients, who could continue with their scheduled date of surgery after having been referred, were not included in the file. We also studied details of same day cancellations from the data base, during the same study period. The reasons for cancellation were examined and defined as avoidable and unavoidable. Results: Less than 0.5% was postponed from the scheduled day of surgery. Less than 0.5% was cancelled on the day of surgery. Conclusions: Patients who undergo pre anaesthetic evaluation in a well-established clinic results in adequate preoperative patient optimisation, avoids unnecessary preoperative admission, efficient theatre utilisation and greater patient satisfaction. The benefits are the result of guidelines and timely update of them which are used by the junior doctors and trainees who run the clinic and a dedicated specialist to supervise them.

Keywords: preoperative assessment, clinic, referrals, cancellation

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Authors: Shobha Ramalingam

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The majority of the infrastructure projects are affected by time overrun, resulting in project delays and subsequently cost overruns. Time overrun may vary from a few months to as high as five or more years, placing the project viability at risk. One of the probable reasons noted in the literature for this outcome in projects is due to poor productivity. Researchers contend that productivity in construction has only marginally increased over the years. While studies in the literature have extensively focused on time and cost parameters in projects, there are limited studies that integrate time and cost with productivity to assess project performance. To this end, a study was conducted to understand the project delay factors concerning cost, time and productivity. A case-study approach was adopted to collect rich data from a nuclear power plant project site for two months through observation, interviews and document review. The data were analyzed using three different approaches for a comprehensive understanding. Foremost, a root-cause analysis was performed on the data using Ishikawa’s fish-bone diagram technique to identify the various factors impacting the delay concerning time. Based on it, a questionnaire was designed and circulated to concerned executives, including project engineers and contractors to determine the frequency of occurrence of the delay, which was then compiled and presented to the management for a possible solution to mitigate. Second, a productivity analysis was performed on select activities, including rebar bending and concreting through a time-motion study to analyze product performance. Third, data on cost of construction for three years allowed analyzing the cost performance using earned value management technique. All three techniques allowed to systematically and comprehensively identify the key factors that deter project performance and productivity loss in the construction of the nuclear power plant project. The findings showed that improper planning and coordination between multiple trades, concurrent operations, improper workforce and material management, fatigue due to overtime were some of the key factors that led to delays and poor productivity. The findings are expected to act as a stepping stone for further research and have implications for practitioners.

Keywords: earned value analysis, time performance, project costs, project delays, construction productivity

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Authors: Md. Shoffikul Islam, Hongqing Hu

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Reducing trace elements' mobility and bioavailability through amendment addition, especially biochar (BC), is a cost-effective and efficient method to address their toxicity in the soil environment. However, the low molecular weight organic acids (LMWOAs) in the rhizosphere could affect BC's efficiency to stabilize trace metals as the LMWOAs could either mobilize or fix metals in the soils. Therefore, understanding the BC's and LMWOAs' interaction mechanisms on metals stabilization in the rhizosphere is crucial. The present study explored the impact of BC derived from rice husk and citric acid (CA) and the combination of BC and CA on the redistribution of cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) among their geochemical forms through incubation experiment. The changes of zeta potential and X-ray diffraction (XRD) pattern of BC and BC-amended soils to investigate the probable mechanisms of trace elements' immobilization by BC under the CA attack were also examined. The rice husk BC at 5% (w/w) was mixed with the air-dry soil (an Anthrosols) contaminated with Cd, Pb, and Zn in the plastic pot. The 2, 5, 10, and 20 mM kg-1 (w/v) of CA were added separately into the pot. All the ingredients were mixed thoroughly with the soil. A control (CK) treatment was also prepared without BC and CA addition. After 7, 15, and 60 days of incubation with 60% (w/v) moisture level at 25 °C, the incubated soils were determined for pH and EC and were sequentially extracted to assess the metals' transformation in soil. The electronegative charges and XRD peaks of BC and BC-amended soils were also measured. Compared to CK, the application of BC, low level of CA (2 mM kg-1 soil) (CA2), and BC plus the low concentration of CA (BC-CA2) considerably declined the acid-soluble Cd, Pb, and Zn in which BC-CA2 was found to be the most effective treatment. The reversed trends were observed concerning the high levels of CA (>5-20 mM kg-1 soil) and the BC plus high concentrations of CA treatments. BC-CA2 changed the highest amounts of acid-soluble and reducible metals to the oxidizable and residual forms with time. The most increased electronegative charges of BC-CA2 indicate its (BC-CA2) highest Cd, Pb, and Zn immobilizing efficiency, probably through metals adsorption and fixation with the negative charge sites. The XRD study revealed the presence of P, O, CO32-, and Cl1- in BC, which might be responsible for the precipitation of CdCO3, pyromorphite, and hopeite in the case of Cd, Pb, and Zn immobilization, respectively. The findings depicted that the low concentration of CA increased metals' stabilization, whereas the high levels of CA enhanced their mobilization. The BC-CA2 emerged as the best amendment among treatments for metals stabilization in contaminated soils.

Keywords: Biochar, citric acid, immobilization, trace elements contaminated soil

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Authors: Nato Kutaladze, George Mikuchadze, Giorgi Sokhadze

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Precipitation forecasts are one of the most demanding applications in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Georgia, as the whole Caucasian region, is characterized by very complex topography. The country territory is prone to flash floods and mudflows, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at any leading time are very important for Georgia. In this study, advanced research weather forecasting model’s skill in QPF is investigated over Georgia’s territory. We have analyzed several convection parameterization and microphysical scheme combinations for different rainy episodes and heavy rainy phenomena. We estimate errors and biases in accumulated 6 h precipitation using different spatial resolution during model performance verification for 12-hour and 24-hour lead time against corresponding rain gouge observations and satellite data. Various statistical parameters have been calculated for the 8-month comparison period, and some skills of model simulation have been evaluated. Our focus is on the formation and organization of convective precipitation systems in a low-mountain region. Several problems in connection with QPF have been identified for mountain regions, which include the overestimation and underestimation of precipitation on the windward and lee side of the mountains, respectively, and a phase error in the diurnal cycle of precipitation leading to the onset of convective precipitation in model forecasts several hours too early.

Keywords: extremal dependence index, false alarm, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting

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Authors: Lara Dutil-Fafard, Caroline Rhéaume, Patrick Archambault, Daniel Lafond, Neal W. Pollock

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Improving resources for medical autonomy of astronauts in prolonged space missions, such as a Mars mission, requires not only technology development, but also decision-making support systems. The Advanced Crew Medical System - Medical Condition Requirements study, funded by the Canadian Space Agency, aimed to create knowledge content and a scenario-based query capability to support medical autonomy of astronauts. The key objective of this study was to create a prototype tool for identifying medical infrastructure requirements in terms of medical knowledge, skills and materials. A multicriteria decision-making method was used to prioritize the highest risk medical events anticipated in a long-term space mission. Starting with those medical conditions, event sequence diagrams (ESDs) were created in the form of decision trees where the entry point is the diagnosis and the end points are the predicted outcomes (full recovery, partial recovery, or death/severe incapacitation). The ESD formalism was adapted to characterize and compare possible outcomes of medical conditions as a function of available medical knowledge, skills, and supplies in a given mission scenario. An extensive literature review was performed and summarized in a medical condition database. A PostgreSQL relational database was created to allow query-based evaluation of health outcome metrics with different medical infrastructure scenarios. Critical decision points, skill and medical supply requirements, and probable health outcomes were compared across chosen scenarios. The three medical conditions with the highest risk rank were acute coronary syndrome, sepsis, and stroke. Our efforts demonstrate the utility of this approach and provide insight into the effort required to develop appropriate content for the range of medical conditions that may arise.

Keywords: decision support system, event-sequence diagram, exploration mission, medical autonomy, scenario-based queries, space medicine

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Authors: Wilfred A. Abiaa, Chibundu N. Ezekiel, Benedikt Warth, Michael Sulyok, Paul C. Turner, Rudolf Krska, Paul F. Moundipa

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Mycotoxins are a wide range of toxic secondary metabolites of fungi that contaminate various food commodities worldwide especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Such contamination seriously compromises food safety and quality posing a serious problem for human health as well as to trade and the economy. Their concentrations depend on various factors, such as the commodity itself, climatic conditions, storage conditions, seasonal variances, and processing methods. When humans consume foods contaminated by mycotoxins, they exert toxic effects to their health through various modes of actions. Rural populations in sub-Saharan Africa, are exposed to dietary mycotoxins, but it is supposed that exposure levels and health risks associated with mycotoxins between SSA countries may vary. Dietary exposures and health risk assessment studies have been limited by lack of equipment for the proper assessment of the associated health implications on consumer populations when they eat contaminated agricultural products. As such, mycotoxin research is premature in several SSA nations with product evaluation for mycotoxin loads below/above legislative limits being inadequate. Few nations have health risk assessment reports mainly based on direct quantification of the toxins in foods ('external exposure') and linking food levels with data from food frequency questionnaires. Nonetheless, the assessment of the exposure and health risk to mycotoxins requires more than the traditional approaches. Only a fraction of the mycotoxins in contaminated foods reaches the blood stream and exert toxicity ('internal exposure'). Also, internal exposure is usually smaller than external exposure thus dependence on external exposure alone may induce confounders in risk assessment. Some studies from SSA earlier focused on biomarker analysis mainly on aflatoxins while a few recent studies have concentrated on the multi-biomarker analysis of exposures in urine providing probable associations between observed disease occurrences and dietary mycotoxins levels. As a result, new techniques that could assess the levels of exposures directly in body tissue or fluid, and possibly link them to the disease state of individuals became urgent.

Keywords: mycotoxins, biomarkers, exposure assessment, health risk assessment, sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Amir AlAmeeri, Mohamed Ibrahim

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Various data points are constantly being measured in the production system, and due to the nature of the wells, these data points, such as pressure, temperature, water cut, etc.., fluctuations are constant, which requires high frequency monitoring and collection. It is a very difficult task to analyze these parameters manually using spreadsheets and email. An automated system greatly enhances efficiency, reduce errors, the need for constant emails which take up disk space, and frees up time for the operator to perform other critical tasks. Various production data is being recorded in an oil field, and this huge volume of data can be seen as irrelevant to some, especially when viewed on its own with no context. In order to fully utilize all this information, it needs to be properly collected, verified and stored in one common place and analyzed for surveillance and monitoring purposes. This paper describes how data is recorded by different parties and departments in the field, and verified numerous times as it is being loaded into a repository. Once it is loaded, a final check is done before being entered into a production monitoring system. Once all this is collected, various calculations are performed to report allocated production. Calculated production data is used to report field production automatically. It is also used to monitor well and surface facility performance. Engineers can use this for their studies and analyses to ensure field is performing as it should be, predict and forecast production, and monitor any changes in wells that could affect field performance.

Keywords: automation, oil production, Cheleken, exploration and production (E&P), Caspian Sea, allocation, forecast

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Ben Tappin, Ryan McKay

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The political left and right appear to disagree not only over questions of value but, also, over questions of fact—over what is true “out there” in society and the world. Alarmingly, a large body of survey data collected during the past decade suggests that this disagreement tends to be greatest among the most educated and most cognitively sophisticated opposing partisans. In other words, the data show that these individuals display the widest political polarization in their reported factual beliefs. Explanations of this polarization pattern draw heavily on cultural and political factors; yet, the large majority of the evidence originates from one cultural and political context—the United States, a country with a rather unique cultural and political history. One consequence is that widening political polarization conditional on education and cognitive sophistication may be due to idiosyncratic cultural, political or historical factors endogenous to US society—rather than a more general, international phenomenon. We examined widening political polarization conditional on education across Europe, over a topic that is culturally and politically contested; immigration. To do so, we analyzed data from the European Social Survey, a premier survey of countries in and around the European area conducted biennially since 2002. Our main results are threefold. First, we see widening political polarization conditional on education over beliefs about the economic impact of immigration. The foremost countries showing this pattern are the most influential in Europe: Germany and France. However, we also see heterogeneity across countries, with some—such as Belgium—showing no evidence of such polarization. Second, we find that widening political polarization conditional on education is a product of sorting. That is, highly educated partisans exhibit stronger within-group consensus in their beliefs about immigration—the data do not support the view that the more educated partisans are more polarized simply because the less educated fail to adopt a position on the question. Third, and finally, we find some evidence that shocks to the political climate of countries in the European area—for example, the “refugee crisis” of summer 2015—were associated with a subsequent increase in political polarization over immigration conditional on education. The largest increase was observed in Germany, which was at the centre of the so-called refugee crisis in 2015. These results reveal numerous insights: they show that widening political polarization conditional on education is not restricted to the US or native English-speaking culture; that such polarization emerges in the domain of immigration; that it is a product of within-group consensus among the more educated; and, finally, that exogenous shocks to the political climate may be associated with subsequent increases in political polarization conditional on education.

Keywords: beliefs, Europe, immigration, political polarization

Procedia PDF Downloads 147