Search results for: reliable cash flow
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6645

Search results for: reliable cash flow

6585 Determinants of Dividend Payout Ratio: Evidence form MENA Region

Authors: Abdul-Nasser El-Kassar, Walid Elgammal, Hisham Jawhar

Abstract:

This paper studies the determinants of the dividends payout ratio. The factors affecting the dividends payout ratio are to be identified. The study focuses only on the cement and construction industry within the MENA region in an attempt to isolate any incoherent behavior. The factors under consideration are: sales growth, ROE, ROA, ROS, debt to equity ratio, firm size, and free cash flow. Data were collected from official stock exchange markets in addition to annual reports. The study considered all firms that paid dividend in each of the three consecutive years starting from 2010 till 2012. Out of the 123 listed firms that work in cement and construction industry in MENA region, only 19 paid dividends in the three consecutive years 2010-12. Our sample consists of the 19 firms (57 observations) which are selected according to purposive sampling. Moreover, the study uses the homogeneous subcategory within the purposive sampling since only similar firms in the construction industry had been examined. The outcome of the study provides a vital insight into the determinants of dividends payout ratio of companies in MENA region. The results showed that the dividend payout ratio has a strong and positive relationship with return on assets and strong but negative relationship with return on equity. On the other hand, the results detected weak relationships between dividend payout ratio and sale growth, debt to equity ratio, firm size, and free cash flow. The study suggests that board of directors tend to compensate shareholders and minimize the agency cost by distributing a high portion of profits in form of dividends whenever return on equity decreases. Also, when the performance of the firm improves, and hence return on assets increases, boards of directors are more generous in distributing profits.

Keywords: dividends payout ratio, profitability firm size, free cashflow, debt to equity ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 353
6584 ‘Point of Sale’ Cash/Cashless Banking Enterprise Retention in Rural South Africa: Limitations and Interventions

Authors: Ishmael Obaeko Iwara

Abstract:

The Point of Sale (POS) cash and cashless semi-formal business has emerged as a significant driver of employment in countries like Nigeria and Kenya, similar to other micro and small-scale enterprises. This business model enables individuals to establish cash in/out outlets, offering entrepreneurs and small business owners a lucrative opportunity to generate additional income. However, the benefits extend beyond employment, as the POS model has become an integral part of the payment system in these countries. It facilitates convenient fund transfers, cash deposits, and withdrawals for individuals residing in both urban and rural areas. Given South Africa's high youth unemployment rate and limited banking services in rural households, coupled with a vibrant informal business economy akin to Nigeria and Kenya, the POS model potentially presents a business opportunity for the unemployed and serves as a banking solution for remote communities. Nonetheless, its implementation within South Africa's entrepreneurial landscape remains a subject of contention. Through qualitative research employing a participatory community-led action research approach, this study analyzes feedback, critiques, and potential interventions from various stakeholders, including business actors, grassroots communities, financial institutions, and policymakers. The findings offer crucial insights into the challenges associated with the adoption of the POS model and suggest mitigating factors to facilitate its successful implementation.

Keywords: grassroots entrepreneurs, rural households, POS banking, youth employment

Procedia PDF Downloads 62
6583 Multidimensional Modeling of Solidification Process of Multi-Crystalline Silicon under Magnetic Field for Solar Cell Technology

Authors: Mouhamadou Diop, Mohamed I. Hassan

Abstract:

Molten metallic flow in metallurgical plant is highly turbulent and presents a complex coupling with heat transfer, phase transfer, chemical reaction, momentum transport, etc. Molten silicon flow has significant effect in directional solidification of multicrystalline silicon by affecting the temperature field and the emerging crystallization interface as well as the transport of species and impurities during casting process. Owing to the complexity and limits of reliable measuring techniques, computational models of fluid flow are useful tools to study and quantify these problems. The overall objective of this study is to investigate the potential of a traveling magnetic field for an efficient operating control of the molten metal flow. A multidimensional numerical model will be developed for the calculations of Lorentz force, molten metal flow, and the related phenomenon. The numerical model is implemented in a laboratory-scale silicon crystallization furnace. This study presents the potential of traveling magnetic field approach for an efficient operating control of the molten flow. A numerical model will be used to study the effects of magnetic force applied on the molten flow, and their interdependencies. In this paper, coupled and decoupled, steady and unsteady models of molten flow and crystallization interface will be compared. This study will allow us to retrieve the optimal traveling magnetic field parameter range for crystallization furnaces and the optimal numerical simulations strategy for industrial application.

Keywords: multidimensional, numerical simulation, solidification, multicrystalline, traveling magnetic field

Procedia PDF Downloads 237
6582 Numerical Investigation of Multiphase Flow in Pipelines

Authors: Gozel Judakova, Markus Bause

Abstract:

We present and analyze reliable numerical techniques for simulating complex flow and transport phenomena related to natural gas transportation in pipelines. Such kind of problems are of high interest in the field of petroleum and environmental engineering. Modeling and understanding natural gas flow and transformation processes during transportation is important for the sake of physical realism and the design and operation of pipeline systems. In our approach a two fluid flow model based on a system of coupled hyperbolic conservation laws is considered for describing natural gas flow undergoing hydratization. The accurate numerical approximation of two-phase gas flow remains subject of strong interest in the scientific community. Such hyperbolic problems are characterized by solutions with steep gradients or discontinuities, and their approximation by standard finite element techniques typically gives rise to spurious oscillations and numerical artefacts. Recently, stabilized and discontinuous Galerkin finite element techniques have attracted researchers’ interest. They are highly adapted to the hyperbolic nature of our two-phase flow model. In the presentation a streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin approach and a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for the numerical approximation of our flow model of two coupled systems of Euler equations are presented. Then the efficiency and reliability of stabilized continuous and discontinous finite element methods for the approximation is carefully analyzed and the potential of the either classes of numerical schemes is investigated. In particular, standard benchmark problems of two-phase flow like the shock tube problem are used for the comparative numerical study.

Keywords: discontinuous Galerkin method, Euler system, inviscid two-fluid model, streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin method, twophase flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 318
6581 Impact of Working Capital Management Strategies on Firm's Value and Profitability

Authors: Jonghae Park, Daesung Kim

Abstract:

The impact of aggressive and conservative working capital‘s strategies on the value and profitability of the firms has been evaluated by applying the panel data regression analysis. The control variables used in the regression models are natural log of firm size, sales growth, and debt. We collected a panel of 13,988 companies listed on the Korea stock market covering the period 2000-2016. The major findings of this study are as follow: 1) We find a significant negative correlation between firm profitability and the number of days inventory (INV) and days accounts payable (AP). The firm’s profitability can also be improved by reducing the number of days of inventory and days accounts payable. 2) We also find a significant positive correlation between firm profitability and the number of days accounts receivable (AR) and cash ratios (CR). In other words, the cash is associated with high corporate profitability. 3) Tobin's analysis showed that only the number of days accounts receivable (AR) and cash ratios (CR) had a significant relationship. In conclusion, companies can increase profitability by reducing INV and increasing AP, but INV and AP did not affect corporate value. In particular, it is necessary to increase CA and decrease AR in order to increase Firm’s profitability and value.

Keywords: working capital, working capital management, firm value, profitability

Procedia PDF Downloads 176
6580 Numerical Solution of 1-D Shallow Water Equations at Junction for Sub-Critical and Super-Critical Flow

Authors: Mohamed Elshobaki, Alessandro Valiani, Valerio Caleffi

Abstract:

In this paper, we solve 1-D shallow water equation for sub-critical and super-critical water flow at junction. The water flow at junction has been studied for the last 50 years from the physical-hydraulic point of views and for numerical computations need more attention. For numerical simulation, we need to establish an inner boundary condition at the junction to avoid an oscillation which rise from the waves interactions at the junction. Indeed, we introduce a new boundary condition at the junction based on the mass conservation, total head, and the admissible wave relations between the flow parameters in the three branches to predict the water depths and discharges at the junction. These boundary conditions are valid for sub-critical flow and super-critical flow.

Keywords: numerical simulation, junction flow, sub-critical flow, super-critical flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 494
6579 Oil Displacement by Water in Hauterivian Sandstone Reservoir of Kashkari Oil Field

Authors: A. J. Nazari, S. Honma

Abstract:

This paper evaluates oil displacement by water in Hauterivian sandstone reservoir of Kashkari oil field in North of Afghanistan. The core samples of this oil field were taken out from well No-21st, and the relative permeability and fractional flow are analyzed. Steady state flow laboratory experiments are performed to empirically obtain the fractional flow curves and relative permeability in different water saturation ratio. The relative permeability represents the simultaneous flow behavior in the reservoir. The fractional flow approach describes the individual phases as fractional of the total flow. The fractional flow curve interprets oil displacement by water, and from the tangent of fractional flow curve can find out the average saturation behind the water front flow saturation. Therefore, relative permeability and fractional flow curves are suitable for describing the displacement of oil by water in a petroleum reservoir. The effects of irreducible water saturation, residual oil saturation on the displaceable amount of oil are investigated through Buckley-Leveret analysis.

Keywords: fractional flow, oil displacement, relative permeability, simultaneously flow

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6578 Numerical Simulations for Nitrogen Flow in Piezoelectric Valve

Authors: Pawel Flaszynski, Piotr Doerffer, Jan Holnicki-Szulc, Grzegorz Mikulowski

Abstract:

Results of numerical simulations for transonic flow in a piezoelectric valve are presented. The valve is the main part of an adaptive pneumatic shock absorber. Flow structure in the valve domain and the influence of the flow non-uniformity in the valve on a mass flow rate is investigated. Numerical simulation results are compared with experimental data.

Keywords: pneumatic valve, transonic flow, numerical simulations, piezoelectric valve

Procedia PDF Downloads 497
6577 The Constraint of Machine Breakdown after a Match up Scheduling of Paper Manufacturing Industry

Authors: John M. Ikome

Abstract:

In the process of manufacturing, a machine breakdown usually forces a modified flow shop out of the prescribed state, this strategy reschedules part of the initial schedule to match up with the pre-schedule at some point with the objective to create a schedule that is reliable with the other production planning decisions like material flow, production and suppliers by utilizing a critical decision-making concept. We propose a rescheduling strategy and a match-up point that will have a determination procedure through an advanced feedback control mechanism to increase both the schedule quality and stability. These approaches are compared with alternative re-scheduling methods under different experimental settings.

Keywords: scheduling, heuristics, branch, integrated

Procedia PDF Downloads 404
6576 Nonstationary Increments and Casualty in the Aluminum Market

Authors: Andrew Clark

Abstract:

McCauley, Bassler, and Gunaratne show that integration I(d) processes as used in economics and finance do not necessarily produce stationary increments, which are required to determine causality in both the short term and the long term. This paper follows their lead and shows I(d) aluminum cash and futures log prices at daily and weekly intervals do not have stationary increments, which means prior causality studies using I(d) processes need to be re-examined. Wavelets based on undifferenced cash and futures log prices do have stationary increments and are used along with transfer entropy (versus cointegration) to measure causality. Wavelets exhibit causality at most daily time scales out to 1 year, and weekly time scales out to 1 year and more. To determine stationarity, localized stationary wavelets are used. LSWs have the benefit, versus other means of testing for stationarity, of using multiple hypothesis tests to determine stationarity. As informational flows exist between cash and futures at daily and weekly intervals, the aluminum market is efficient. Therefore, hedges used by producers and consumers of aluminum need not have a big concern in terms of the underestimation of hedge ratios. Questions about arbitrage given efficiency are addressed in the paper.

Keywords: transfer entropy, nonstationary increments, wavelets, localized stationary wavelets, localized stationary wavelets

Procedia PDF Downloads 195
6575 Studying Roughness Effects on Flow Regimes in Offshore Pipelines

Authors: Mohammad Sadegh Narges, Zahra Ghadampour

Abstract:

Due to the specific condition, offshore pipelines are given careful consideration and care in both design and operation. Most of the offshore pipeline flows are multi-phase. Multi-phase flows construct different pattern or flow regimes (in simultaneous gas-liquid flow, flow regimes like slug flow, wave and …) under different circumstances. One of the influencing factors on the flow regime is the pipeline roughness value. So far, roughness value influences and the sensitivity of the present models to this parameter have not been taken into consideration. Therefore, roughness value influences on the flow regimes in offshore pipelines are discussed in this paper. Results showed that geometry, absolute pipeline roughness value (materials that the pipeline is made of) and flow phases prevailing the system are of the influential parameters on the flow regimes prevailing multi-phase pipelines in a way that a change in any of these parameters results in a change in flow regimes in all or part of the pipeline system.

Keywords: absolute roughness, flow regime, multi-phase flow, offshore pipelines

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6574 Flow Behavior and Performances of Centrifugal Compressor Stage Vaneless Diffusers

Authors: Y.Galerkin, O. Solovieva

Abstract:

Flow parameters are calculated in vaneless diffusers with relative width 0,014 – 0,10 constant along radii. Inlet flow angles and similarity criteria were varied. Information about flow structure is presented – meridian streamlines configuration, information on flow full development, flow separation. Polytrophic efficiency, loss and recovery coefficient are used to compare diffusers’ effectiveness. The sample of narrow diffuser optimization by conical walls application is presented. Three tampered variants of a wide diffuser are compared too. The work is made in the R&D laboratory “Gas dynamics of turbo machines” of the TU SPb.

Keywords: vaneless diffuser, relative width, flow angle, flow separation, loss coefficient, similarity criteria

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6573 Comparison of Two-Phase Critical Flow Models for Estimation of Leak Flow Rate through Cracks

Authors: Tadashi Watanabe, Jinya Katsuyama, Akihiro Mano

Abstract:

The estimation of leak flow rates through narrow cracks in structures is of importance for nuclear reactor safety, since the leak flow could be detected before occurrence of loss-of-coolant accidents. The two-phase critical leak flow rates are calculated using the system analysis code, and two representative non-homogeneous critical flow models, Henry-Fauske model and Ransom-Trapp model, are compared. The pressure decrease and vapor generation in the crack, and the leak flow rates are found to be larger for the Henry-Fauske model. It is shown that the leak flow rates are not affected by the structural temperature, but affected largely by the roughness of crack surface.

Keywords: crack, critical flow, leak, roughness

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6572 Hypersonic Flow of CO2-N2 Mixture around a Spacecraft during the Atmospheric Reentry

Authors: Zineddine Bouyahiaoui, Rabah Haoui

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to analyze a flow around the axisymmetric blunt body taken into account the chemical and vibrational nonequilibrium flow. This work concerns the entry of spacecraft in the atmosphere of the planet Mars. Since the equations involved are non-linear partial derivatives, the volume method is the only way to solve this problem. The choice of the mesh and the CFL is a condition for the convergence to have the stationary solution.

Keywords: blunt body, finite volume, hypersonic flow, viscous flow

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6571 Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program, '4P’s': Breaking the Vicious Poverty Cycle

Authors: Bernadette F. De La Cruz, Susan Marie R. Dela Cruz, Georgia D. Demavibas

Abstract:

Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4P) is a conditional cash transfer program in the Philippines pay extremely poor household-beneficiaries in order to fulfill the country’s commitment to the number one of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). 4P's send 10,235,256 school children aged 6-18 from a total of 4,353,597 registered households with an average of two to three children. We analyze this program in Iloilo, Philippines. We show that this program can be made efficient by selecting beneficiaries and calibrating transfer for a maximum breaking of intergenerational poverty cycle of hunger, health and achieve higher education.

Keywords: ESGP-PA, millennium development goals, house hold beneficiaries, cash transfer

Procedia PDF Downloads 391
6570 Flow Visualization around a Rotationally Oscillating Cylinder

Authors: Cemre Polat, Mustafa Soyler, Bulent Yaniktepe, Coskun Ozalp

Abstract:

In this study, it was aimed to control the flow actively by giving an oscillating rotational motion to a vertically placed cylinder, and flow characteristics were determined. In the study, firstly, the flow structure around the flat cylinder was investigated with dye experiments, and then the cylinders with different oscillation angles (θ = 60°, θ = 120°, and θ = 180°) and different rotation speeds (15 rpm and 30 rpm) the flow structure around it was examined. Thus, the effectiveness of oscillation and rotation speed in flow control has been investigated. In the dye experiments, the dye/water mixture obtained by mixing Rhodamine 6G in powder form with water, which shines under laser light and allows detailed observation of the flow structure, was used. During the experiments, the dye was injected into the flow with the help of a thin needle at a distance that would not affect the flow from the front of the cylinder. In dye experiments, 100 frames per second were taken with a Canon brand EOS M50 (24MP) digital mirrorless camera at a resolution of 1280 * 720 pixels. Then, the images taken were analyzed, and the pictures representing the flow structure for each experiment were obtained. As a result of the study, it was observed that no separation points were formed at 180° swing angle at 15 rpm speed, 120° and 180° swing angle at 30 rpm, and the flow was controlled according to the fixed cylinder.

Keywords: active flow control, cylinder, flow visualization rotationally oscillating

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6569 Hydrological Method to Evaluate Environmental Flow: Case Study of Gharasou River, Ardabil

Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah, Mehdi Jorabloo

Abstract:

Water flow management is one of the most important parts of river engineering. Non-uniformity distribution of rainfall and various flow demand with unreasonable flow management will be caused destroyed of the river ecosystem. Then, it is severe to determine ecosystem flow requirement. In this paper, Flow duration curve indices method which has hydrological based was used to evaluate environmental flow in Gharasou River, Ardabil, Iran. Using flow duration curve, Q90 and Q95 for different return periods were calculated. Their magnitude was determined as 1-day, 3-day, 7-day, and 30 days. According to the second method, hydraulic alteration indices often had low and medium range. To maintain river at an acceptable ecological condition, minimum daily discharge of index Q95 is 0.7 m^3.s^-1.

Keywords: Gharasou River, water flow management, non-uniformity distribution, ecosystem flow requirement, hydraulic alteration

Procedia PDF Downloads 324
6568 Performance Evaluation of Conical Solar Concentrator System with Different Flow Rate

Authors: Gwi Hyun Lee, Mun Soo Na

Abstract:

Solar energy has many advantages of infinite and clean source, and also it can be used for reduction of greenhouse gases and environment pollution. Concentrated solar system is a very useful to achieve reasonably high thermal efficiency. Different types of solar concentrating systems have been developed such as parabolic trough and parabolic dish. Conical solar concentrator is one of the most reliable and promising renewable energy systems for higher temperature applications. The objectives of this study were to investigate the influence of flow rate affecting the thermal efficiency of a conical solar collector, which has a double tube absorber placed at focal axis for collecting solar radiation. A conical solar concentrator consists of a conical reflector, which reflects direct solar radiation into an absorber. A double tube absorber was placed at the center of focal axis for collecting the solar radiation reflected from a conical reflector. A dual tracking system consists of a linear actuator and slew drive with driving cycle of 6 seconds. Water was used as circulating fluid, which flows from inlet to outlet of an absorber for collecting solar radiation. Three identical conical solar concentrator systems were installed side by side at the same place for the accurate performance analysis under the same environmental conditions. Performance evaluations were carried out with different volumetric flow rate of 2, 4 and 6 L/min to find the influence of flow rate affecting on thermal efficiency. The results indicated that average thermal efficiency was 73.24%, 81.96%, and 79.78% for each flow rate of 2 L/min, 4 L/min, and 6 L/min. It shows that the flow rate of circulating water has a significant effect on the thermal efficiency of the conical solar concentrator. It is concluded that an optimum flow rate of conical solar concentrator is 6 L/min.

Keywords: conical solar concentrator, performance evaluation, solar energy, solar energy system

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6567 Machine Learning for Targeting of Conditional Cash Transfers: Improving the Effectiveness of Proxy Means Tests to Identify Future School Dropouts and the Poor

Authors: Cristian Crespo

Abstract:

Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) have been targeted towards the poor. Thus, their targeting assessments check whether these schemes have been allocated to low-income households or individuals. However, CCTs have more than one goal and target group. An additional goal of CCTs is to increase school enrolment. Hence, students at risk of dropping out of school also are a target group. This paper analyses whether one of the most common targeting mechanisms of CCTs, a proxy means test (PMT), is suitable to identify the poor and future school dropouts. The PMT is compared with alternative approaches that use the outputs of a predictive model of school dropout. This model was built using machine learning algorithms and rich administrative datasets from Chile. The paper shows that using machine learning outputs in conjunction with the PMT increases targeting effectiveness by identifying more students who are either poor or future dropouts. This joint targeting approach increases effectiveness in different scenarios except when the social valuation of the two target groups largely differs. In these cases, the most likely optimal approach is to solely adopt the targeting mechanism designed to find the highly valued group.

Keywords: conditional cash transfers, machine learning, poverty, proxy means tests, school dropout prediction, targeting

Procedia PDF Downloads 192
6566 Experimental Study on Performance of a Planar Membrane Humidifier for a Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Stack

Authors: Chen-Yu Chen, Wei-Mon Yan, Chi-Nan Lai, Jian-Hao Su

Abstract:

The proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) becomes more important as an alternative energy source recently. Maintaining proper water content in the membrane is one of the key requirements for optimizing the PEMFC performance. The planar membrane humidifier has the advantages of simple structure, low cost, low-pressure drop, light weight, reliable performance and good gas separability. Thus, it is a common external humidifier for PEMFCs. In this work, a planar membrane humidifier for kW-scale PEMFCs is developed successfully. The heat and mass transfer of humidifier is discussed, and its performance is analyzed in term of dew point approach temperature (DPAT), water vapor transfer rate (WVTR) and water recovery ratio (WRR). The DPAT of the humidifier with the counter flow approach reaches about 6°C under inlet dry air of 50°C and 60% RH and inlet humid air of 70°C and 100% RH. The rate of pressure loss of the humidifier is 5.0×10² Pa/min at the torque of 7 N-m, which reaches the standard of commercial planar membrane humidifiers. From the tests, it is found that increasing the air flow rate increases the WVTR. However, the DPAT and the WRR are not improved by increasing the WVTR as the air flow rate is higher than the optimal value. In addition, increasing the inlet temperature or the humidity of dry air decreases the WVTR and the WRR. Nevertheless, the DPAT is improved at elevated inlet temperatures or humidities of dry air. Furthermore, the performance of the humidifier with the counter flow approach is better than that with the parallel flow approach. The DPAT difference between the two flow approaches reaches up to 8 °C.

Keywords: heat and mass transfer, humidifier performance, PEM fuel cell, planar membrane humidifier

Procedia PDF Downloads 296
6565 Numerical Investigation of Flow Behaviour Across a Trapezoidal Bluff Body at Low Reynolds Number

Authors: Zaaraoui Abdelkader, Kerfah Rabeh, Noura Belkheir, Matene Elhacene

Abstract:

The trapezoidal bluff body is a typical configuration of vortex shedding bodies. The aim of this work is to study flow behaviour over a trapezoidal cylinder at low Reynolds number. The geometry was constructed from a prototype device for measuring the volumetric flow-rate by counting vortices. Simulations were run for this geometry under steady and unsteady flow conditions using finite volume discretization. Laminar flow was investigated in this model with rigid walls and homogeneous incompressible Newtonian fluid. Calculations were performed for Reynolds number range 5 ≤ Re ≤ 180 and several flow parameters were documented. The present computations are in good agreement with the experimental observations and the numerical calculations by several investigators.

Keywords: bluff body, confined flow, numerical calculations, steady and unsteady flow, vortex shedding flow meter

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6564 Computational Fluids Dynamics Investigation of the Effect of Geometric Parameters on the Ejector Performance

Authors: Michel Wakim, Rodrigo Rivera Tinoco

Abstract:

Supersonic ejector is an economical device that use high pressure vapor to compress a low pressure vapor without any rotating parts or external power sources. Entrainment ratio is a major characteristic of the ejector performance, so the ejector performance is highly dependent on its geometry. The aim of this paper is to design ejector geometry, based on pre-specified operating conditions, and to study the flow behavior inside the ejector by using computational fluid dynamics ‘CFD’ by using ‘ANSYS FLUENT 15.0’ software. In the first section; 1-D mathematical model is carried out to predict the ejector geometry. The second part describes the flow behavior inside the designed model. CFD is the most reliable tool to reveal the mixing process at different parts of the supersonic turbulent flow and to study the effect of the geometry on the effective ejector area. Finally, the results show the effect of the geometry on the entrainment ratio.

Keywords: computational fluids dynamics, ejector, entrainment ratio, geometry optimization, performance

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6563 Application of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Forecasting Monthly Flows in Waterval River, South Africa

Authors: Kassahun Birhanu Tadesse, Megersa Olumana Dinka

Abstract:

Reliable future river flow information is basic for planning and management of any river systems. For data scarce river system having only a river flow records like the Waterval River, a univariate time series models are appropriate for river flow forecasting. In this study, a univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied for forecasting Waterval River flow using GRETL statistical software. Mean monthly river flows from 1960 to 2016 were used for modeling. Different unit root tests and Mann-Kendall trend analysis were performed to test the stationarity of the observed flow time series. The time series was differenced to remove the seasonality. Using the correlogram of seasonally differenced time series, different SARIMA models were identified, their parameters were estimated, and diagnostic check-up of model forecasts was performed using white noise and heteroscedasticity tests. Finally, based on minimum Akaike Information (AIc) and Hannan-Quinn (HQc) criteria, SARIMA (3, 0, 2) x (3, 1, 3)12 was selected as the best model for Waterval River flow forecasting. Therefore, this model can be used to generate future river information for water resources development and management in Waterval River system. SARIMA model can also be used for forecasting other similar univariate time series with seasonality characteristics.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity, stationarity test, trend analysis, validation, white noise

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6562 Investigating the Effect of the Shape of the Side Supports of the Gates of the Gotvand Reservoir Dam (from the Peak Overflows) on the Narrowing Coefficients

Authors: M. Abbasi

Abstract:

A spillway structure is used to pass excess water and floods from upstream or upstream to downstream or tributary. The spillway is considered one of the most key members of the dam, and the failure of many dams is attributed to the inefficiency of their spillway. Weirs should be selected as strong, reliable and high-performance structures, and weirs should be ready for use in all conditions and able to drain the flood so that we do not witness many casualties and financial losses when a flood occurs. The purpose of this study is to simulate the flow pattern passing over the peak spillway in order to optimize and adjust the height of the spillway walls. In this research, the effect of the shape of the side wings on the flow pattern over the peak spillways of the Gotvand reservoir dam was simulated and modelled using Flow3D software. In this research, side wings with rounded walls with six different approach angles were used. In addition, the different value of H/Hd was used to check the effect of the tank head. The results showed that with the constant H/Hd ratio and the increase of the approach angle of the side wing, the flow depth first decreases and then increases. These changes were the opposite regarding the depth average speed of the flow and the depth average concentration of the air entering the flow. At the same time, with the constant angle of approach of the side wing and with the increase of H/Hd ratio, the flow depth increases. In general, a correct understanding of the operation of overflows and a correct design can significantly reduce construction costs and solve flooding problems.

Keywords: effect of the shape, gotvand reservoir dam, narrowing coefficients, supports of the gates

Procedia PDF Downloads 55
6561 Anisotropic Approach for Discontinuity Preserving in Optical Flow Estimation

Authors: Pushpendra Kumar, Sanjeev Kumar, R. Balasubramanian

Abstract:

Estimation of optical flow from a sequence of images using variational methods is one of the most successful approach. Discontinuity between different motions is one of the challenging problem in flow estimation. In this paper, we design a new anisotropic diffusion operator, which is able to provide smooth flow over a region and efficiently preserve discontinuity in optical flow. This operator is designed on the basis of intensity differences of the pixels and isotropic operator using exponential function. The combination of these are used to control the propagation of flow. Experimental results on the different datasets verify the robustness and accuracy of the algorithm and also validate the effect of anisotropic operator in the discontinuity preserving.

Keywords: optical flow, variational methods, computer vision, anisotropic operator

Procedia PDF Downloads 863
6560 Flow as a Positive Intervention for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder

Authors: Sonal Khosla

Abstract:

A research is proposed in the present paper to explore the role of flow in coping with traumatic experiences and attaining post-traumatic growth. A grounded theory research is proposed to be carried by analyzing memoirs of people who have been through trauma. A pilot study was carried out on two memoirs of women who were held captive for over ten years and were sexually assaulted repeatedly. The role of flow in their coping experiences was explored by analyzing the books. Some of the flow activities that were used by them were- drawing and daydreaming. Their narratives show the evidence for flow as having cathartic and healing effects on them. Applicability of the findings can take two forms: 1. Flow can be applied as a preventive technique to help the people who are going through trauma, 2. Flow can be adopted into a positive intervention to help people suffering from PTSD.

Keywords: flow, positive intervention, PTSD, PTG

Procedia PDF Downloads 363
6559 Numerical Analysis of Passive Controlled Turbulent Flow around a Circular Cylinder

Authors: Mustafa Soyler, Mustafa M. Yavuz, Bulent Yaniktepe, Coskun Ozalp

Abstract:

In this study, unsteady two-dimensional turbulent flow around a circular cylinder and passive control of the flow with groove on the cylinder was examined. In the CFD analysis, solutions were made using turbulent flow conditions. Steady and unsteady solutions were used in turbulent flow analysis. Numerical analysis of the flow around the circular cylinder is difficult since flow is not in a stable regime when Reynold number is between 1000 and 10000. The analyses in this study were performed at a subcritical Re number of 5000 and the results were compared with available experimental results of the drag coefficient (Cd) and Strouhal (St) number values in the literature. The effect of different groove types and depths on the Cd coefficient has been analyzed and grooves increase the Cd coefficient compared to the smooth cylinder.

Keywords: CFD, drag coefficient, flow over cylinder, passive flow control

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6558 Gas-Liquid Two Phase Flow Phenomenon in Near Horizontal Upward and Downward Inclined Pipe Orientations

Authors: Afshin J. Ghajar, Swanand M. Bhagwat

Abstract:

The main purpose of this work is to experimentally investigate the effect of pipe orientation on two phase flow phenomenon. Flow pattern, void fraction and two phase pressure drop is measured in a polycarbonate pipe with an inside diameter of 12.7mm for inclination angles ranging from -20° to +20° using air-water fluid combination. The experimental data covers all flow patterns and the entire range of void fraction typically observed in two phase flow. The effect of pipe orientation on void fraction and two phase pressure drop is justified with reference to the change in flow structure and two phase flow behavior. In addition to this, the top performing void fraction and two phase pressure drop correlations available in the literature are presented and their performance is assessed against the experimental data in the present study and that available in the literature.

Keywords: flow patterns, inclined two phase flow, pressure drop, void fraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 667
6557 Finding the Free Stream Velocity Using Flow Generated Sound

Authors: Saeed Hosseini, Ali Reza Tahavvor

Abstract:

Sound processing is one the subjects that newly attracts a lot of researchers. It is efficient and usually less expensive than other methods. In this paper the flow generated sound is used to estimate the flow speed of free flows. Many sound samples are gathered. After analyzing the data, a parameter named wave power is chosen. For all samples, the wave power is calculated and averaged for each flow speed. A curve is fitted to the averaged data and a correlation between the wave power and flow speed is founded. Test data are used to validate the method and errors for all test data were under 10 percent. The speed of the flow can be estimated by calculating the wave power of the flow generated sound and using the proposed correlation.

Keywords: the flow generated sound, free stream, sound processing, speed, wave power

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6556 Patterns of Private Transfers in the Philippines: An Analysis of Who Gives and Receives More

Authors: Rutcher M. Lacaza, Stephen Jun V. Villejo

Abstract:

This paper investigated the patterns of private transfers in the Philippines using the Family Income Expenditure Survey (FIES) 2009, conducted by the Philippine government’s National Statistics Office (NSO) every three years. The paper performed bivariate analysis on net transfers, using the identified determinants for a household to be either a net receiver or a net giver. The household characteristics considered are the following: age, sex, marital status, employment status and educational attainment of the household head, and also size, location, pre-transfer income and the number of employed members of the household. The variables net receiver and net giver are determined by computing the net transfer, subtracting total gifts from total receipts. The receipts are defined as the sum of cash received from abroad, cash received from domestic sources, total gifts received and inheritance. While gifts are defined as the sum of contributions and donations to church and other religious institutions, contributions and donations to other institutions, gifts and contributions to others, and gifts and assistance to private individuals outside the family. Both in kind and in cash transfers are considered in the analysis. It also performed a multiple regression analysis on transfers received and income including other household characteristics to examine the motives for giving transfers – whether altruism or exchanged. It also used the binary logistic regression to estimate the probability of being a net receiver or net giver given the household characteristics. The study revealed that receiving tends to be universal – both the non-poor and the poor benefit although the poor receive substantially less than the non-poor. Regardless of whether households are net receivers or net givers, households in the upper deciles generally give and receive more than those in the lower deciles. It also appears that private transfers may just flow within economic groups. Big amounts of transfers are, therefore, directed to the non-poor and the small amounts go to the poor. This was also supported by the increasing function of gross transfers received and the income of households – the poor receiving less and the non-poor receiving more. This is contrary to the theory that private transfers can help equalize the distribution of income. This suggested that private transfers in the Philippines are not altruistically motivated but exchanged. However, bilateral data on transfers received or given is needed to test this theory directly. The results showed that transfers are much needed by the poor and it is important to understand the nature of private transfers, to ensure that government transfer programs are properly designed and targeted so as to prevent the duplication of private safety nets already present among the non-poor.

Keywords: private transfers, net receiver, net giver, altruism, exchanged.

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