Search results for: event study methodology

Authors: Mert Kıranç, Ekrem Duman, Murat Özbilen

Abstract:

In order to achieve new product development (NPD) activities on time and within budgetary constraints, the NPD managers need a well-designed methodology. This study intends to create an integrated project management methodology for the ones who focus on new product development projects. In the scope of the study, four different management systems are combined. These systems are called as 'Schedule-oriented Stage-Gate Method, Risk Management, Change Management and Earned Value Management'. New product development term is quite common in many different industries such as defense industry, construction, health care/dental, higher education, fast moving consumer goods, white goods, electronic devices, marketing and advertising and software development. All product manufacturers run against each other’s for introducing a new product to the market. In order to achieve to produce a more competitive product in the market, an optimum project management methodology is chosen, and this methodology is adapted to company culture. The right methodology helps the company to present perfect product to the customers at the right time. The benefits of proposed methodology are discussed as an application by a company. As a result, how the integrated methodology improves the efficiency and how it achieves the success of the project are unfolded.

Keywords: project, project management, management methodology, new product development, risk management, change management, earned value, stage-gate

Procedia PDF Downloads 299

Authors: Noura Al Akkari, Aurélie Foucquier, Sylvain Lespinats

Abstract:

Load monitoring is a management process for energy consumption towards energy savings and energy efficiency. Non Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is one method of load monitoring used for disaggregation purposes. NILM is a technique for identifying individual appliances based on the analysis of the whole residence data retrieved from the main power meter of the house. Our NILM framework starts with data acquisition, followed by data preprocessing, then event detection, feature extraction, then general appliance modeling and identification at the final stage. The event detection stage is a core component of NILM process since event detection techniques lead to the extraction of appliance features. Appliance features are required for the accurate identification of the household devices. In this research work, we aim at developing a new event detection methodology with accurate load disaggregation to extract appliance features. Time-domain features extracted are used for tuning general appliance models for appliance identification and classification steps. We use unsupervised algorithms such as Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). The proposed method relies on detecting areas of operation of each residential appliance based on the power demand. Then, detecting the time at which each selected appliance changes its states. In order to fit with practical existing smart meters capabilities, we work on low sampling data with a frequency of (1/60) Hz. The data is simulated on Load Profile Generator software (LPG), which was not previously taken into consideration for NILM purposes in the literature. LPG is a numerical software that uses behaviour simulation of people inside the house to generate residential energy consumption data. The proposed event detection method targets low consumption loads that are difficult to detect. Also, it facilitates the extraction of specific features used for general appliance modeling. In addition to this, the identification process includes unsupervised techniques such as DTW. To our best knowledge, there exist few unsupervised techniques employed with low sampling data in comparison to the many supervised techniques used for such cases. We extract a power interval at which falls the operation of the selected appliance along with a time vector for the values delimiting the state transitions of the appliance. After this, appliance signatures are formed from extracted power, geometrical and statistical features. Afterwards, those formed signatures are used to tune general model types for appliances identification using unsupervised algorithms. This method is evaluated using both simulated data on LPG and real-time Reference Energy Disaggregation Dataset (REDD). For that, we compute performance metrics using confusion matrix based metrics, considering accuracy, precision, recall and error-rate. The performance analysis of our methodology is then compared with other detection techniques previously used in the literature review, such as detection techniques based on statistical variations and abrupt changes (Variance Sliding Window and Cumulative Sum).

Keywords: electrical disaggregation, DTW, general appliance modeling, event detection

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Authors: Wheyming Tina Song, Chi-Hao Hong

Abstract:

In this study, we investigate the effect of a new boarding policy - short stay, on the overcrowding efficiency in emergency department (ED). The decision variables are no. of short stay beds for least acuity ED patients. The performance measurements used are national emergency department overcrowding score (NEDOCS) and ED retention rate (the percentage that patients stay in ED over than 48 hours in one month). Discrete event simulation (DES) is used as an analysis tool to evaluate the strategy. Also, common random number (CRN) technique is applied to enhance the simulation precision. The DES model was based on a census of 6 months' patients who were treated in the ED of the National Taiwan University Hospital Yunlin Branch. Our results show that the new short-stay boarding significantly impacts both the NEDOCS and ED retention rate when the no. of short stay beds is more than three.

Keywords: emergency department (ED), common random number (CRN), national emergency department overcrowding score (NEDOCS), discrete event simulation (DES)

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Authors: Marie-Eve Joret, Marijn Van Vliet, Flavio Camarrone, Marc M. Van Hulle

Abstract:

Event-related potentials (ERPs) provide evidence that the human brain can process and understand music at a pre-attentive level. Music-specific ERPs include the Early Right Anterior Negativity (ERAN) and a late Negativity (N5). This study aims to further investigate this issue using two types of syntactic manipulations in music: mild violations, containing no out-of-key tones and strong violations, containing out-of-key tones. We will examine whether both manipulations will elicit the same ERPs.

Keywords: ERAN ERPs, Music, N5, P3, ERPs, Music, N5 component, P3 component

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Authors: Nasir Yusoff, Ahmad Adamu Adamu, Tahamina Begum, Faruque Reza

Abstract:

The P300 from Event related potential (ERP) explains the psycho-physiological phenomenon in human body. The present study aims to identify the differences of amplitude and latency of P300 component from auditory stimuli, between ambiversion and extraversion types of personality. Ambivert (N=20) and extravert (N=20) undergoing ERP recording at the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia (HUSM) laboratory. Electroencephalogram data was recorded with oddball paradigm, counting auditory standard and target tones, from nine electrode sites (Fz, Cz, Pz, T3, T4, T5, T6, P3 and P4) by using the 128 HydroCel Geodesic Sensor Net. The P300 latency of the target tones at all electrodes were insignificant. Similarly, the P300 latency of the standard tones were also insignificant except at Fz and T3 electrode. Likewise, the P300 amplitude of the target and standard tone in all electrode sites were insignificant. Extravert and ambivert indicate similar characteristic in cognition processing from auditory task.

Keywords: amplitude, event related potential, p300 component, latency

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Authors: Asaad Y. Shamseldin

Abstract:

Analytical probabilistic approach is an innovative approach for urban stormwater modeling. It can provide information about the long-term performance of a stormwater management facility without being computationally very demanding. This paper explores the application of the analytical probabilistic approach in New Zealand. The paper presents the results of a case study aimed at development of an objective way of identifying what constitutes a rainfall storm event and the estimation of the corresponding statistical properties of storms using two selected automatic rainfall stations located in the Auckland region in New Zealand. The storm identification and the estimation of the storm statistical properties are regarded as the first step in the development of the analytical probabilistic models. The paper provides a recommendation about the definition of the storm inter-event time to be used in conjunction with the analytical probabilistic approach.

Keywords: hydrology, rainfall storm, storm inter-event time, New Zealand, stormwater management

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Authors: Hafiz Muhammad Fazalehaq

Abstract:

This paper documents the results of a longitudinal study done on two bilingual children who speak English and Punjabi simultaneously. Their father is a native English speaker whereas their mother speaks Punjabi. Their mother can speak both the languages (English and Punjabi) whereas their father only speaks English. At the age of six, these children have difficulty in creative thinking and of course creative writing. So, the first task for the researcher is to impress and entice the children to think creatively. Various and different methodologies and techniques were used to entice them to start thinking creatively. Creative thinking leads to creative writing. These children were exposed to numerous sources including videos, photographs, texts and audios at first place in order to have a taste of creative genres (stories in this case). The children were encouraged to create their own stories sometimes with photographs and sometimes by using their favorite toys. At a second stage, they were asked to write about an event or incident. After that, they were motivated to create new stories and write them. Length of their creative writing varies from a few sentences to a two standard page. After this six months’ study, the researcher was able to develop a ten steps methodology for creating and improving/enhancing creative thinking and creative writing skills of the subjects understudy. This ten-step methodology entices and motivates the learner to think creatively for producing a creative piece.

Keywords: bilinguals, creative thinking, creative writing, simultaneous bilingual

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Authors: Kyoko Tominaga

Abstract:

Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), Non-Profit Organizations (NPOs), Social Enterprises and other actors play an important role in political decisions in governments at the international levels. Especially, such organizations’ and activists’ network in civil society is quite important to effect to the global politics. To solve the complex social problems in global era, diverse actors should corporate each other. Moreover, network of protesters is also contributes to diffuse tactics, information and other resources of social movements. Based on the findings from the study of International Trade Fairs (ITFs), the author analyzes the network of activists in anti-globalism movement. This research focuses the transition of 54 activists’ whole network in the “protest event” against 2008 G8 summit in Japan. Their network is examined at the three periods: Before protest event phase, during protest event phase and after event phase. A mixed method is used in this study: the author shows the hypothesis from social network analysis and evaluates that with interview data analysis. This analysis gives the two results. Firstly, the more protesters participate to the various events during the protest event, the more they build the network. After that, active protesters keep their network as well. From interview data, we can understand that the active protesters can build their network and diffuse the information because they communicate with other participants and understand that diverse issues are related. This paper comes to same conclusion with previous researches: protest events activate the network among the political activists. However, some participants succeed to build their network, others do not. “Networked” activists are participated in the various events for short period of time and encourage the diffusion of information and tactics of social movements.

Keywords: social movement, global justice movement, tactics, diffusion

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Authors: Ahmad Abdulkadir Ibrahim

Abstract:

Observation of the methodology of Islamic economics laid down for the methods and instruments of analysis and even some of its basic assumptions in the modern world; is a matter that is of paramount importance. There is a need to examine the implications of different suggested definitions of Islamic economics, exploring its scope and attempting to outline its methodology. This paper attempts to deal with the definition of Islamic economics, its methodology, and its scope. It will outline the main methodological problem by addressing the question of whether Islamic economics calls for a methodology of its own or as an expanded economics. It also aims at drawing the attention of economists in the modern world to the obligation and consideration of the methodology of Islamic economics. The methodology adopted in this research is library research through the consultation of relevant literature, which focuses on the thematic study of the subject matter. This is followed by an analysis and discussion of the contents of the materials used. It is concluded that there is a certain degree of inconsistency in the way assumptions are incorporated that perhaps are alien to Islamic economics. The paper also observed that there is a difference between Islamic economists and other (conventional) economists in the profession. An important conclusion is that Islamic economists need to rethink what economics is all about and whether we really have to create an alternative to economics in the form of Islamic economics or simply have an Islamic perspective of the same discipline.

Keywords: methodology, Islamic economics, conventional economics, Muslim economists, framework, knowledge

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Authors: Abhijitsinh Gohil, Kaushal Wadhvaniya, Kuldipsinh Jadeja

Abstract:

Road Safety is a multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional issue. An effective model can assess the risk associated with highway safety. A questionnaire survey is very essential to identify the events or activities which are causing unsafe condition for traffic on an urban highway. A questionnaire of standard questions including vehicular, human and infrastructure characteristics can be made. Responses from the age wise group of road users can be taken on field. Each question or an event holds a specific risk weightage, which contributes in creating an inappropriate and unsafe flow of traffic. The probability of occurrence of an event can be calculated from the data collected from the road users. Finally, the risk score can be calculated by considering the risk factor and the probability of occurrence of individual event and addition of all risk score for the individual event will give the total risk score of a particular road. Standards for risk score can be made and total risk score can be compared with the standards. Thus road can be categorized based on risk associated and traffic safety on it. With this model, one can assess the need for traffic safety improvement on a given road, and qualitative data can be analysed.

Keywords: probability of occurrence, questionnaire, risk factor, risk score

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Authors: Yuhanis Ibrahim, Sung-Pil Lee

Abstract:

This study attempts to address factors that contribute to outline public art factors assessment, memorial monument specifically. Memorial monuments hold significant and rich message whether the intention of the art is to mark and commemorate important event or to inform younger generation about the past. Public monument should relate to the public and raise awareness about the significant issue. Therefore, by investigating the impact of the existing public memorial art will hopefully shed some lights to the upcoming public art projects’ stakeholders to ensure the lucid memorial message is delivered to the public directly. Public is the main actor as public is the fundamental purpose that the art was created. Perception is framed as one of the reliable evaluation tools to assess the public art impact factors. The Malaysia National Monument was selected to be the case study for the investigation. The public’s perceptions were gathered using a questionnaire that involved (n-115) participants to attain keywords, and next Semantical Differential Methodology (SDM) was adopted to evaluate the perceptions about the memorial monument. These perceptions were then measured with Reliability Factor and then were factorised using Factor Analysis of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method to acquire concise factors for the monument assessment. The result revealed that there are four factors that influence public’s perception on the monument which are aesthetic, audience, topology, and public reception. The study concludes by proposing the factors for public memorial art assessment for the next future public memorial projects especially in Malaysia.

Keywords: factor analysis, public art, public perception, semantical differential methodology

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Authors: Ashok V. Sutagundar, Sunilkumar S. Manvi

Abstract:

Energy, delay and bandwidth are the prime issues of wireless sensor network (WSN). Energy usage optimization and efficient bandwidth utilization are important issues in WSN. Event triggered data aggregation facilitates such optimal tasks for event affected area in WSN. Reliable delivery of the critical information to sink node is also a major challenge of WSN. To tackle these issues, we propose an event driven dynamic clustering and data aggregation scheme for WSN that enhances the life time of the network by minimizing redundant data transmission. The proposed scheme operates as follows: (1) Whenever the event is triggered, event triggered node selects the cluster head. (2) Cluster head gathers data from sensor nodes within the cluster. (3) Cluster head node identifies and classifies the events out of the collected data using Bayesian classifier. (4) Aggregation of data is done using statistical method. (5) Cluster head discovers the paths to the sink node using residual energy, path distance and bandwidth. (6) If the aggregated data is critical, cluster head sends the aggregated data over the multipath for reliable data communication. (7) Otherwise aggregated data is transmitted towards sink node over the single path which is having the more bandwidth and residual energy. The performance of the scheme is validated for various WSN scenarios to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in terms of aggregation time, cluster formation time and energy consumed for aggregation.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, dynamic clustering, data aggregation, wireless communication

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Authors: Thiru Vandeyar

Abstract:

The present study set out to determine how Q methodology may be used as an inclusive education policy development process. Utilising Q-methodology as a strategy of inquiry, this qualitative instrumental case study set out to explore how teachers, as a crucial but often neglected human resource, may be included in developing policy. A social constructivist lens and the theoretical moorings of Proudford’s emancipatory approach to educational change anchored in teachers’ ‘writerly’ interpretation of policy text was employed. Findings suggest that Q-method is a unique research approach to include teachers’ voices in policy development. Second, that beliefs, attitudes, and professionalism of teachers to improve teaching and learning using ICT are integral to policy formulation. The study indicates that teachers have unique beliefs about what statements should constitute a school’s information and communication (ICT) policy. Teachers’ experiences are an extremely valuable resource in and should not be ignored in the policy formulation process.

Keywords: teachers, q-methodology, education policy, ICT

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Authors: Jawid Ahmad Baktash, Tadashi Shiroma, Tomokazu Nagata, Yuji Taniguchi, Morikazu Nakamura

Abstract:

The goal of this paper is to explore the use of formal methods for Dynamic Routing, The purpose of network communication with dynamic routing is sending a massage from one node to others by using pacific protocols. In dynamic routing connections are possible based on protocols of Distance vector (Routing Information Protocol, Border Gateway protocol), Link State (Open Shortest Path First, Intermediate system Intermediate System), Hybrid (Enhanced Interior Gateway Routing Protocol). The responsibility for proper verification becomes crucial with Dynamic Routing. Formal methods can play an essential role in the Routing, development of Networks and testing of distributed systems. Event-B is a formal technique consists of describing rigorously the problem; introduce solutions or details in the refinement steps to obtain more concrete specification, and verifying that proposed solutions are correct. The system is modeled in terms of an abstract state space using variables with set theoretic types and the events that modify state variables. Event-B is a variant of B, was designed for developing distributed systems. In Event-B, the events consist of guarded actions occurring spontaneously rather than being invoked. The invariant state properties must be satisfied by the variables and maintained by the activation of the events.

Keywords: dynamic rout RIP, formal method, event-B, pro-B

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Authors: Iqbal Felani

Abstract:

A Coal-Fired Power Plant has some integrated facilities to handle coal from three separated coal yards to eight units power plant’s bunker. But nowadays the facilities are not reliable enough for supporting the system. Management planned to invest some facilities to increase the reliability. They also had a plan to make single spesification of coal used all of the units, called Single Quality Coal (SQC). This simulation would compare before and after improvement with two scenarios i.e First In First Out (FIFO) and Last In First Out (LIFO). Some parameters like stay time, reorder point and safety stock is determined by the simulation. Discrete event simulation based software, Flexsim 5.0, is used to help the simulation. Based on the simulation, Single Quality Coal with FIFO scenario has the shortest staytime with 8.38 days.

Keywords: Coal Yard Management, Discrete event simulation First In First Out, Last In First Out.

Procedia PDF Downloads 653

Authors: Emmanuel Bole Akinpelu

Abstract:

Festival is a social event that takes place every year which showcase culture and other social activities that usually take place in an environment or town. However, Oranyan Festival is an annual event organized and celebrated in Oyo town in honor of Oranyan the great who is reputed to be the overall head of the Kings of the Yoruba. This event is attended by people from all works of life. The Oyos are used to celebrating various cultural festivals; like Ogun, Oya, Sango, Egungun, Obatala and others. However, Oranyan festival in Oyo is a recent development in honour of Oranyan. He was said to be powerful and an embodiment of a unique cultural tradition. The study examined the significance of the festival to the Oyo Yoruba group. Oyo Yoruba cultural heritage include; Ewi, Ijala, Traditional food ‘Amala and Gbegiri’, Ekun Iyawo, (Bridal Chants), Traditional Music, Traditional Dance, Traditional Game ‘Ayo Olopon’ Eke (Traditional wrestling) and others. Data for this work was gathered through archival sources as journals and relevant publications on the various Oyo Yoruba Traditional Art and Culture. The study is of the opinion that the festival has influence over the religion, Political, economic and other aspects of the modern day traditions. The study also revealed that Oranyan Festival made people to have a better understanding of their rich Cultural Heritage and promoted unity among all and sundry. It also promotes peace among the people. Conclusively, it promotes the rich Cultural Heritage of Oyo Yoruba’s both within and outside NIGERIA and the world at large.

Keywords: Yoruba Oyo, arts and culture, Oranyan, festival

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Authors: J. R. Wang, W. Y. Cheng, J. S. Yeh, S. W. Chen, Y. M. Ferng, J. H. Yang, W. S. Hsu, C. Shih

Abstract:

To understand the risk for dry storage concrete casks in the cask loading, transfer, and storage phase, the purpose of this research is to establish the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analysis methodology for dry storage concrete casks by using SAPHIRE 8 code. This analysis methodology is used to perform the study of Taiwan nuclear power plants (NPPs) dry storage system. The process of research has three steps. First, the data of the concrete casks and Taiwan NPPs are collected. Second, the PRA analysis methodology is developed by using SAPHIRE 8. Third, the PRA analysis is performed by using this methodology. According to the analysis results, the maximum risk is the multipurpose canister (MPC) drop case.

Keywords: PRA, dry storage, concrete cask, SAPHIRE

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Authors: Ping Xu, Gregory T. Golm, Guanghan (Frank) Liu

Abstract:

In the presence of competing events, traditional survival analysis may not be appropriate and can result in biased estimates, as it assumes independence between competing events and the event of interest. Instead, competing risk analysis should be considered to correctly estimate the survival probability of the event of interest and the hazard ratio between treatment groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided a potential source of competing risks in clinical trials, as participants in trials may experienceCOVID-related competing events before the occurrence of the event of interest, for instance, death due to COVID-19, which can affect the incidence rate of the event of interest. We have performed simulation studies to compare multiple competing risk analysis models, including the cumulative incidence function, the sub-distribution hazard function, and the cause-specific hazard function, to the traditional survival analysis model under various scenarios. We also provide a general recommendation on conducting competing risk analysis in randomized clinical trials during the era of the COVID-19 pandemic based on the extensive simulation results.

Keywords: competing risk, survival analysis, simulations, randomized clinical trial, COVID-19 pandemic

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Authors: Rodrigo Zeidan

Abstract:

The paper identifies failures of decision making and corporate governance that allow non-financial companies around the world to develop hedging strategies that lead to hefty losses in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The sample is comprised of 346 companies from 10 international markets, of which 49 companies (and a subsample of 13 distressed companies) lose a combined US$18.9 billion. An event study shows that most companies that present losses in derivatives experience negative abnormal returns, including a number of companies in which the effect is persistent after a year. The results of a probit model indicate that the lack of a formal hedging policy, no monitoring to the CFOs, and considerations of hubris and remuneration contribute to the mismanagement of hedging policies.

Keywords: risk management, hedging, derivatives, monitoring, corporate governance structure, event study, hubris

Procedia PDF Downloads 426

Authors: Noura Al Akkari, Aurélie Foucquier, Sylvain Lespinats

Abstract:

Load monitoring is a management process for energy consumption towards energy savings and energy efficiency. Non Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is one method of load monitoring used for disaggregation purposes. NILM is a technique for identifying individual appliances based on the analysis of the whole residence data retrieved from the main power meter of the house. Our NILM framework starts with data acquisition, followed by data preprocessing, then event detection, feature extraction, then general appliance modeling and identification at the final stage. The event detection stage is a core component of NILM process since event detection techniques lead to the extraction of appliance features. Appliance features are required for the accurate identification of the household devices. In this research work, we aim at developing a new event detection methodology with accurate load disaggregation to extract appliance features. Time-domain features extracted are used for tuning general appliance models for appliance identification and classification steps. We use unsupervised algorithms such as Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). The proposed method relies on detecting areas of operation of each residential appliance based on the power demand. Then, detecting the time at which each selected appliance changes its states. In order to fit with practical existing smart meters capabilities, we work on low sampling data with a frequency of (1/60) Hz. The data is simulated on Load Profile Generator software (LPG), which was not previously taken into consideration for NILM purposes in the literature. LPG is a numerical software that uses behaviour simulation of people inside the house to generate residential energy consumption data. The proposed event detection method targets low consumption loads that are difficult to detect. Also, it facilitates the extraction of specific features used for general appliance modeling. In addition to this, the identification process includes unsupervised techniques such as DTW. To our best knowledge, there exist few unsupervised techniques employed with low sampling data in comparison to the many supervised techniques used for such cases. We extract a power interval at which falls the operation of the selected appliance along with a time vector for the values delimiting the state transitions of the appliance. After this, appliance signatures are formed from extracted power, geometrical and statistical features. Afterwards, those formed signatures are used to tune general model types for appliances identification using unsupervised algorithms. This method is evaluated using both simulated data on LPG and real-time Reference Energy Disaggregation Dataset (REDD). For that, we compute performance metrics using confusion matrix based metrics, considering accuracy, precision, recall and error-rate. The performance analysis of our methodology is then compared with other detection techniques previously used in the literature review, such as detection techniques based on statistical variations and abrupt changes (Variance Sliding Window and Cumulative Sum).

Keywords: general appliance model, non intrusive load monitoring, events detection, unsupervised techniques;

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Authors: N. Mehrotra, V. Ahuja, N. Sridharan

Abstract:

Resilience is an all hazard and a proactive approach, require a multidisciplinary input in the inter related variables of the city system. This research based to identify and operationalize indicators for assessment in domain of institutions, infrastructure and knowledge, all three operating in task oriented community networks. This paper gives a brief account of the methodology developed for assessment of Urban Resilience and its prioritized components for a target population within a newly planned urban complex integrating Surajpur and Kasna village as nodes. People’s perception of Urban Resilience has been examined by conducting questionnaire survey among the target population of Greater Noida. As defined by experts, Urban Resilience of a place is considered to be both a product and process of operation to regain normalcy after an event of disturbance of certain level. Based on this methodology, six indicators are identified that contribute to perception of urban resilience both as in the process of evolution and as an outcome. The relative significance of 6 R’ has also been identified. The dependency factor of various resilience indicators have been explored in this paper, which helps in generating new perspective for future research in disaster management. Based on the stated factors this methodology can be applied to assess urban resilience requirements of a well planned town, which is not an end in itself, but calls for new beginnings.

Keywords: disaster, resilience, system, urban

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Authors: Jerry Q. Cheng

Abstract:

Currently, in analyzing large-scale recurrent event data, there are many challenges such as memory limitations, unscalable computing time, etc. In this research, a divide-and-conquer method is proposed using parametric frailty models. Specifically, the data is randomly divided into many subsets, and the maximum likelihood estimator from each individual data set is obtained. Then a weighted method is proposed to combine these individual estimators as the final estimator. It is shown that this divide-and-conquer estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the estimator based on the full data. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the performance of this proposed method. This approach is applied to a large real dataset of repeated heart failure hospitalizations.

Keywords: big data analytics, divide-and-conquer, recurrent event data, statistical computing

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety-critical incident to raise awareness of biases in the systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors, and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the methodology used to model and analyze the safety-critical incident. The SIRI methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the management oversight and risk tree technique. The benefits of the systems for investigation of railway interfaces methodology (SIRI) are threefold: first is that it incorporates the “Heuristics and Biases” approach advanced by 2002 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences, Prof Daniel Kahneman, in the management oversight and risk tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of the role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling techniques. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organizational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signaling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons are learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner's and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision-making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 systems engineering standard and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and artificial intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach

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Authors: G. K. Viswanadh, B. Rajasekhar, G. Venkata Ramana

Abstract:

Water distribution networks play a vital role in ensuring a reliable supply of clean water to urban areas. However, they face several challenges, including pressure control, pump speed optimization, and burst event detection. This paper combines insights from two studies to address these critical issues in Water distribution networks, focusing on the specific context of Kapra Municipality, India. The first part of this research concentrates on optimizing pressure control and pump speed in complex Water distribution networks. It utilizes the EPANET- MATLAB Toolkit to integrate EPANET functionalities into the MATLAB environment, offering a comprehensive approach to network analysis. By optimizing Pressure Reduce Valves (PRVs) and variable speed pumps (VSPs), this study achieves remarkable results. In the Benchmark Water Distribution System (WDS), the proposed PRV optimization algorithm reduces average leakage by 20.64%, surpassing the previous achievement of 16.07%. When applied to the South-Central and East zone WDS of Kapra Municipality, it identifies PRV locations that were previously missed by existing algorithms, resulting in average leakage reductions of 22.04% and 10.47%. These reductions translate to significant daily Water savings, enhancing Water supply reliability and reducing energy consumption. The second part of this research addresses the pressing issue of burst event detection and localization within the Water Distribution System. Burst events are a major contributor to Water losses and repair expenses. The study employs wireless sensor technology to monitor pressure and flow rate in real time, enabling the detection of pipeline abnormalities, particularly burst events. The methodology relies on transient analysis of pressure signals, utilizing Cumulative Sum and Wavelet analysis techniques to robustly identify burst occurrences. To enhance precision, burst event localization is achieved through meticulous analysis of time differentials in the arrival of negative pressure waveforms across distinct pressure sensing points, aided by nodal matrix analysis. To evaluate the effectiveness of this methodology, a PVC Water pipeline test bed is employed, demonstrating the algorithm's success in detecting pipeline burst events at flow rates of 2-3 l/s. Remarkably, the algorithm achieves a localization error of merely 3 meters, outperforming previously established algorithms. This research presents a significant advancement in efficient burst event detection and localization within Water pipelines, holding the potential to markedly curtail Water losses and the concomitant financial implications. In conclusion, this combined research addresses critical challenges in Water distribution networks, offering solutions for optimizing pressure control, pump speed, burst event detection, and localization. These findings contribute to the enhancement of Water Distribution System, resulting in improved Water supply reliability, reduced Water losses, and substantial cost savings. The integrated approach presented in this paper holds promise for municipalities and utilities seeking to improve the efficiency and sustainability of their Water distribution networks.

Keywords: pressure reduce valve, complex networks, variable speed pump, wavelet transform, burst detection, CUSUM (Cumulative Sum), water pipeline monitoring

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Authors: Andreas Jede, Frank Teuteberg

Abstract:

Cloud computing (CC) has already gained overall appreciation in research and practice. Whereas the willingness to integrate cloud services in various IT environments is still unbroken, the previous CC procurement processes run mostly in an unorganized and non-standardized way. In practice, a sufficiently specific, yet applicable business process for the important acquisition phase is often lacking. And research does not appropriately remedy this deficiency yet. Therefore, this paper introduces a field-tested approach for CC procurement. Based on an extensive literature review and augmented by expert interviews, we designed a model that is validated and further refined through an in-depth real-life case study. For the detailed process description, we apply the event-driven process chain notation (EPC). The gained valuable insights into the case study may help CC research to shift to a more socio-technical area. For practice, next to giving useful organizational instructions we will provide extended checklists and lessons learned.

Keywords: cloud procurement process, IT-organization, event-driven process chain, in-depth case study

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Manolis Falelakis, Maria Pavlidou, Konstantinos Papakonstantinou, Ermioni Avramidou, Dimitrios Kalogiannis, Nikolaos Milios, Katerina Bountakidou, Kiriakos Chatzidimitriou, Panagiotis Panagiotopoulos

Abstract:

Artistic events, such as concerts and performances, are challenging to organize because they involve many people with different skill sets. Small and medium venues often struggle to afford the costs and overheads of booking and hosting remote artists, especially if they lack sponsors or subsidies. This limits the opportunities for both venues and artists, especially those outside of big cities. However, more and more research shows that audiences prefer smaller-scale events and concerts, which benefit local economies and communities. To address this challenge, our project “PerformAnts: Digital Event Manager-Organizer” aims to develop a smart digital tool that automates and optimizes the processes and costs of live shows and tours. By using machine learning, applying best practices and training users through workshops, our platform offers a comprehensive solution for a growing market, enhances the mobility of artists and the accessibility of venues and allows professionals to focus on the creative aspects of concert production.

Keywords: event organization, creative industries, event promotion, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Keunsu Han

Abstract:

Sports has been used as a valuable tool for countries to enhance brand image and to pursue higher political interests. Olympic games are one of the best examples as a mega sport event to achieve such nations’ purposes. The term, “soft power,” coined by Nye, refers to country’s ability to persuade and attract foreign audiences through non-coercive ways such as cultural, diplomatic, and economic means. This concept of soft power provides significant answers about why countries are willing to host a mega sport event such as Olympics. This paper reviews the concept of soft power by Nye as a theoretical framework of this study to understand critical motivation for countries to host Olympics and examines the effects of 2016 Rio Olympics as the state’s soft power strategy. Thorough data analysis including media, government and private-sector documents, this research analyzes both negative and positive aspects of the nation’s image created during Rio Olympics and discusses the effects of Rio Olympics as Brazil’s chance to showcase its soft power by highlighting the best the state has to present.

Keywords: country brand, olympics, soft power, sport diplomacy, mega sport event

Procedia PDF Downloads 442

Authors: Ching-Yi Wang

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to explore strategies for integrate Minhsiung environments and cultural resources for Infernal Lord Festival. Minhsiung Infernal Lord Festival is one of the famous religious event in Chia-Yi County, Taiwan. This religious event and the life of local residents are inseparable. Minhsiung Infernal Lord Festival has a rich cultural ceremonies meaning and sentiment of local concern. This study apply field study, document analysis and interviews to analyze Minhsiung Township’s featured attractions and folklore events. The research results reveal the difficulties and strategies while incorporating culture elements into culture tourism. This study hopes to provide innovative techniques for the purpose of prolonging the feasibility of future development of the tradition folk culture.

Keywords: Taiwan folk culture, Minhsiung Infernal Lord Festival, religious tourism, folklore, cultural tourism

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Fazli Rahim Shinwari, Ulrich Dittmer

Abstract:

Like many megacities around the world, Kabul is facing severe problems due to the rising frequency of urban flooding. Since 2001, Kabul is experiencing rapid population growth because of the repatriation of refugees and internal migration. Due to unplanned development, green areas inside city and hilly areas within and around the city are converted into new housing towns that had increased runoff. Trenches along the roadside comprise the unplanned drainage network of the city that drains the combined sewer flow. In rainy season overflow occurs, and after streets become dry, the dust particles contaminate the air which is a major cause of air pollution in Kabul city. In this study, a stormwater management model is introduced as a basis for a systematic approach to urban drainage planning in Kabul. For this purpose, Kabul city is delineated into 8 watersheds with the help of one-meter resolution LIDAR DEM. Storm, water management model, is developed for Wazirabad catchment by using available data and literature values. Due to lack of long term metrological data, the model is only run for hourly rainfall data of a rain event that occurred in April 2016. The rain event from 1st to 3rd April with maximum intensity of 3mm/hr caused huge flooding in Wazirabad Catchment of Kabul City. Model-estimated flooding at some points of the catchment as an actual measurement of flooding was not possible; results were compared with information obtained from local people, Kabul Municipality and Capital Region Independent Development Authority. The model helped to identify areas where flooding occurred because of less capacity of drainage system and areas where the main reason for flooding is due to blockage in the drainage canals. The model was used for further analysis to find a sustainable solution to the problem. The option to construct new canals was analyzed, and two new canals were proposed that will reduce the flooding frequency in Wazirabad catchment of Kabul city. By developing the methodology to develop a stormwater management model from digital data and information, the study had fulfilled the primary objective, and similar methodology can be used for other catchments of Kabul city to prepare an emergency and long-term plan for drainage system of Kabul city.

Keywords: urban hydrology, storm water management, modeling, SWMM, GEO-SWMM, GIS, identification of flood vulnerable areas, urban flooding analysis, sustainable urban drainage

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Thiru Vandeyar

Abstract:

This study sets out to explore how teachers’ beliefs and attitudes about ICT policy influence a consensus approach to the formulation of a school ICT policy. This case study proposes Q- methodology as an innovative method to facilitate a school’s capacity to develop policy reflecting teacher beliefs and attitudes. Q-methodology is used as a constructivist approach to the formulation of an ICT policy. Data capture was a mix of Q-methodology and qualitative principles. Data was analyzed by means of document, content and cluster analysis methods. Findings were threefold: First, teachers’ beliefs and attitudes about ICT policy influenced a consensus approach by including teachers as policy decision-makers. Second, given the opportunity, teachers have the inherent ability to deconstruct and critically engage with policy statements according to their own professional beliefs and attitudes. And third, an inclusive approach to policy formulation may inform the practice of school leaders and policymakers alike on how schools may develop their own policy.

Keywords: ICT, policy, teacher beliefs, consensus

Procedia PDF Downloads 489