Search results for: coastal risk assessment

Authors: T. C. Hsu, H. L. Lin

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Taiwan is mountainous country, 70% of land is covered with mountains. Because of extreme climate, the mountain villages with sensitive and fragile environment often get easily affected by inundation and debris flow from typhoon which brings huge rainfall. Due to inappropriate development, overuse and fewer access roads, occurrence of disaster becomes more frequent through downpour and rescue actions are postponed. However, risk map is generally established through administrative boundaries, the difference of urban and rural area is ignored. The neglect of mountain village characteristics eventually underestimates the importance of factors related to vulnerability and reduces the effectiveness. In disaster management, there are different strategies and actions at each stage. According to different tasks, there will be different risk indices and weights to analyze disaster risk for each stage and then it will contribute to confront threat and reduce impact appropriately on right time. Risk map is important in mitigation, but also in response stage because some factors such as road network will be changed by disaster. This study will use risk assessment to establish risk map of Shanlin District which is mountain village in Kaohsiung as a case study in mitigation and response stage through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP helps to recognize the composition and weights of risk factors in mountain village by experts’ opinions through survey design and is combined with present potential hazard map to produce risk map.

Keywords: risk assessment, mountain village, risk map, analytic hierarchy process

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Authors: Yukinori Fuse, Masato Kawaguchi

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A quantitative risk assessment method was developed for fiber emissions from sprayed asbestos-containing materials (ACMs). In Japan, instead of being quantitative, these risk assessments have relied on the subjective judgment of skilled engineers, which may vary from one person to another. Therefore, this closed sampling method aims at avoiding any potential variability between assessments. This method was used to assess emissions from ACM sprayed in eleven buildings and the obtained results were compared with the subjective judgments of a skilled engineer. An approximate correlation tendency was found between both approaches. In spite of existing uncertainties, the closed sampling method is useful for public health protection. We firmly believe that this method may find application in the management and renovation decisions of buildings using friable and sprayed ACM.

Keywords: asbestos, renovation, risk assessment, maintenance

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Authors: Ateeth Shetty, K. S. Jayappa, Ratheesh Ramakrishnan, A. S. Rajawat

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Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) was estimated for the period of four months (November, 2013 to February 2014) using Oceansat-2 (Ocean Colour Monitor) satellite images to understand the coastal dynamics and regional sediment transport, especially distribution and budgeting in coastal waters. The coastal zone undergoes continuous changes due to natural processes and anthropogenic activities. The importance of the coastal zone, with respect to safety, ecology, economy and recreation, demands a management strategy in which each of these aspects is taken into account. Monitoring and understanding the sediment dynamics and suspended sediment transport is an important issue for coastal engineering related activities. A study of the transport mechanism of suspended sediments in the near shore environment is essential not only to safeguard marine installations or navigational channels, but also for the coastal structure design, environmental protection and disaster reduction. Such studies also help in assessment of pollutants and other biological activities in the region. An accurate description of the sediment transport, caused by waves and tidal or wave-induced currents, is of great importance in predicting coastal morphological changes. Satellite-derived SSC data have been found to be useful for Indian coasts because of their high spatial (360 m), spectral and temporal resolutions. The present paper outlines the applications of state‐of‐the‐art operational Indian Remote Sensing satellite, Oceansat-2 to study the dynamics of sediment transport.

Keywords: suspended sediment concentration, ocean colour monitor, sediment transport, case – II waters

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Authors: N. S. B. Ambarini, Tito Sofyan, Edra Satmaidi

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Coastal and marine are two potential natural resource one of the pillars of the national economy. The Indonesian archipelago has marine and coastal which is quite spacious. Various important natural resources such as fisheries, mining and so on are in coastal areas and the sea, so that this region is a unique area with a variety of interests to exploit it. Therefore, to preserve a sustainable manner need good management and comprehensive. To the national and local level legal regulations have been published relating to the management of coastal and marine areas. However, in practice it has not been able to function optimally. Substantially has not touched the problems of the region, especially concerning the interests of local communities (local). This study is a legal non-doctrinal approach to socio-legal studies. Based on the results of research in some coastal and marine areas in Bengkulu province - Indonesia, there is a fact that the system of customary law and local wisdom began to weaken implementation. Therefore harmonization needs to be done in implementing laws and regulations that apply to the values of indigenous and local knowledge that exists in the community.

Keywords: coastal and marine, harmonization, law, local

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Authors: Aljon Pangan

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The Philippines being an archipelagic country, is surrounded by coastlines (36,289 km), coastal waters (226,000 km²), oceanic waters (1.93 million km²) and territorial waters (2.2 million km²). Studies show that the Philippine coastal ecosystems are the most productive and biologically diverse in the world, however, plagued by degradation problems due to over-exploitation and illegal activities. The existence of coastal degradation issues in the country led to the emergence of Coastal Resource Management (CRM) as an approach to both national and local government in providing solutions for sustainable coastal resource utilization. CRM applies the idea of planning, implementing and monitoring through the lens of collaborative governance. It utilizes collective action and decision-making to achieve sustainable use of coastal resources. The Municipality of Bagac in Bataan is one of the coastal municipalities in the country who crafts its own CRM Program as a solution to coastal resource degradation and problems. Information and Communications Technology (ICT), particularly Integrated Imaging Management System (IIMS) is one approach that can be applied in the formula of collaborative governance which entails the Government, Private Sector, and Civil Society. IIMS can help policymakers, managers, and citizens in managing coastal resources through analyzed spatial data describing the physical, biological, and socioeconomic characteristics of the coastal areas. Moreover, this study will apply the qualitative approach in deciphering possible impacts of the application of IIMS in the Coastal Resource Management policy making and implementation of the Municipality of Bagac.

Keywords: coastal resource management, collaborative governance, integrated imaging management system, information and communication technology

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Authors: Danielle Preziuso, Kamila Kazimierczuk, Annalise Stein, Bethel Tarekegne

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Coastal communities experience a variety of distinct socioeconomic, technical, and environmental vulnerabilities, all of which accrue heightened risk with increasingly frequent and severe climate change impacts. Marine renewable energy (MRE) offers a potential solution for mitigating coastal community vulnerabilities, especially water-energy dependencies while delivering promising co-benefits such as increased resilience and more sustainable energy outcomes. This paper explores coastal community vulnerabilities and service dependencies based on the local drivers that create them, with attention to climate change impacts and how they catalyze water-energy unmet needs in these communities. We examine the vulnerabilities through the lens of coastal Tribal communities (i.e., the Makah Tribe, the Kenaitze Tribe, Quinault Nation), as indigenous communities often face compounded impacts of technical, economic, and environmental vulnerabilities due to their underlying socio-demographic inequalities. We offer an environmental and energy justice indicators framework to understand how these vulnerabilities disproportionately manifest and impact the most vulnerable community members, and we subsequently utilize the framework to inform a weighted decision matrix tool that compares the viability of MRE-based alternative energy futures in addressing these vulnerabilities. The framework and complementary tool highlight opportunities for future MRE research and pilot demonstrations that directly respond to the vulnerabilities of coastal communities.

Keywords: coastal communities, decision matrix, energy equity, energy vulnerability, marine energy, service dependency

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Authors: Qisheng Hu, Jianglei Han, Yue Yang, My Hoa Ha

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When a company is considering purchasing software for commercial use, contract risk assessment is critical to identify risks to mitigate the potential adverse business impact, e.g., security, financial and regulatory risks. Contract risk assessment requires reviewers with specialized knowledge and time to evaluate the legal documents manually. Specifically, validating contracts for a software vendor requires the following steps: manual screening, interpreting legal documents, and extracting risk-prone segments. To automate the process, we proposed a framework to assist legal contract document risk identification, leveraging pre-trained deep learning models and natural language processing techniques. Given a set of pre-defined risk evaluation problems, our framework utilizes the pre-trained transformer-based models for question-answering to identify risk-prone sections in a contract. Furthermore, the question-answering model encodes the concatenated question-contract text and predicts the start and end position for clause extraction. Due to the limited labelled dataset for training, we leveraged transfer learning by fine-tuning the models with the CUAD dataset to enhance the model. On a dataset comprising 287 contract documents and 2000 labelled samples, our best model achieved an F1 score of 0.687.

Keywords: contract risk assessment, NLP, transfer learning, question answering

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Authors: Kazi Ashief Mahmood

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Geographically Bangladesh is located in a natural hazard prone area. Compared to the rest of the areas, the coastal sub-districts are more vulnerable to climate variability and change. However, the hydro-geophysical reality of the sub-districts predominantly determines their contexts of vulnerability and its nature differs accordingly. Intriguingly enough, the poorest of the areas appear to be the most cornered among the different vulnerable sectors. Among of these deprived segments; however, the women, the persons with disability and the minorities are generally more vulnerable and they face a high risk of marginalized. The most threatening hydro-geophysical climate vulnerability have been created by prolonged dry season as observed at Koyra Upazilla in Khulna districts and Shyamnagar in Satkhira districts. The prolonged dry season creates severe surface salinity by which farmers cannot produce or use their to cultivate. The absence of land-based production and employment in the area has led to severe food insecurity. As a result, farmers tend to change their livelihood option and many of them are forced to migrate to the other areas of the country in search of livelihood. Besides salinity intrusion, water logging, drought and different climate change induced hazards are endangering safe drinking water sources and putting small-holders out of agriculture-based livelihoods in the Koyra and Shyamnagar Upazilla. A sizeable fraction of small-holders are still trying to hold on to their small scale shrimp production, despite being under pressure to sell off their cultivating lands to their influential shrimp merchants. While their desperate effort to take advantage of the increasing salinity is somewhat successful, their families still face a greater risk of health hazards owing to the lack of safe drinking water. Unless the issues of salinity in drinking water cannot be redressed, the state of the affected people will be in great jeopardy. Most of the inhabitants of oKyra and Shyamnagar Upazilla are living under the poverty line. Thus, poverty is a major factor that intensifies the vulnerability caused by hydro-geophysical climatic conditions. The government and different NGOs are trying to improve the present scenario by implementing different disaster risk reduction projects along with poverty reduction for community empowerment.

Keywords: assessment, climate change, climate induced hazards, coastal zone

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Authors: Gabriela Wasileski, Debra L. Stanley

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Maryland efforts to decrease the juvenile criminality and recidivism shifts towards evidence based sentencing. While in theory the evidence based sentencing has an impact on the reduction of juvenile delinquency and drug abuse; the assessment of juveniles’ risk and needs usually lacks crucial information about juvenile’s prior victimization. The Maryland Comprehensive Assessment and Service Planning (MCASP) Initiative is the primary tool for developing and delivering a treatment service plan for juveniles at risk. Even though it consists of evidence-based screening and assessment instruments very little is currently known regarding the effectiveness and the impact of the assessment in general. In keeping with Maryland’s priority to develop successful evidence-based recidivism reduction programs, this study examined results of assessments based on MCASP using a representative sample of the juveniles at risk and their assessment results. Specifically, it examined: (1) the results of the assessments in an electronic database (2) areas of need that are more frequent among delinquent youth in a system/agency, (3) the overall progress of youth in an agency’s care (4) the impact of child victimization and trauma experiences reported in the assessment. The project will identify challenges regarding the use of MCASP in Maryland, and will provide a knowledge base to support future research and practices.

Keywords: Juvenile Justice, assessment of risk and need, victimization and crime, recidivism

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Authors: Sina Fadaie, Seyed Abolhassan Naeini

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Coastal embankments play an important role in coastal structures by reducing the effect of the wave forces and controlling the movement of sediments. Many coastal areas are underlain by weak and compressible soils. Estimation of during construction settlement of coastal embankments is highly important in design and safety control of embankments and appurtenant structures. Accordingly, selecting and establishing of an appropriate model with a reasonable level of complication is one of the challenges for engineers. Although there are advanced models in the literature regarding design of embankments, there is not enough information on the prediction of their associated settlement, particularly in coastal areas having considerable soft soils. Marine engineering study in Iran is important due to the existence of two important coastal areas located in the northern and southern parts of the country. In the present study, the validity of Terzaghi’s consolidation theory has been investigated. In addition, the settlement of these coastal embankments during construction is predicted by using special methods in PLAXIS software by the help of appropriate boundary conditions and soil layers. The results indicate that, for the existing soil condition at the site, some parameters are important to be considered in analysis. Consequently, a model is introduced to estimate the settlement of the embankments in such geotechnical conditions.

Keywords: consolidation, settlement, coastal embankments, numerical methods, finite elements method

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Authors: Sun Jiaojiao, Fu Jiayan

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At present, in China, the research about the urban sustainability construction is still in the exploratory stage. The ecological problems of the coastal area are more sensitive and complicated. In the background of global warming with serious ecological damage, this paper deeply researches on the main characteristics of urban sustainability and measures how to build urban sustainability. Through combination with regional environmental and economic ability along the coastal area, we put forward the system planning framework, construction strategy and the evaluation index system in order to seek the way of building urban sustainability along coastal area in China.

Keywords: urban sustainability, coastal areas, construction strategy, evaluation index system

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Authors: Jongsung Kim, Daegun Han, Myungjin Lee, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters are gradually increasing due to climate change. Especially in Korea, large-scale damage caused by heavy rainfall frequently occurs due to rapid urbanization. Therefore, this study proposed a Heavy rain Damage Risk Index (HDRI) using PSR (Pressure – State - Response) structure for heavy rain risk assessment. We constructed pressure index, state index, and response index for the risk assessment of each local government in Gyeonggi-do province, and the evaluation indices were determined by principal component analysis. The indices were standardized using the Z-score method then HDRIs were obtained for 31 local governments in the province. The HDRI is categorized into three classes, say, the safest class is 1st class. As the results, the local governments of the 1st class were 15, 2nd class 7, and 3rd class 9. From the study, we were able to identify the risk class due to the heavy rainfall for each local government. It will be useful to develop the heavy rainfall prediction function by risk class, and this was performed in this issue. Also, this risk class could be used for the decision making for efficient disaster management. Acknowledgements: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2017R1A2B3005695).

Keywords: natural disaster, heavy rain risk assessment, HDRI, PSR

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Authors: Islam Abou El-Magd, Elham Ali, Ali Amasha

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Earthquakes strike without warning and cause widespread damage to social and economic infrastructures and creating life losses. These can neither be predicted nor prevented in terms of their magnitude, place, and time of occurrence. It is a global phenomenon that creates nearly 18% of life losses and nearly 35% of economic damage. The coastal zone of Egypt is considered low to medium risk, however, there is a record of high magnitude earthquakes that created Tsunami in the past. The northern coastal zone of Egypt is under the force of tension shear zones of African and European plates that have considerable earthquakes with variable degrees. This research studied the earthquakes in the last 65 years in the Mediterranean Basin in relation to the geotectonic shear zones. 85% of these earthquakes are in the marine that might create Tsunami. Aegean and Anatolia shear zones are the highest contributors of the earthquakes with nearly 37% and 36% respectively. However the least one is the Arabia zone with 1%, and Africa is about 26%. The research proposed three scenarios for the socioeconomic hazards, earthquakes with Tsunami that will destroy one fifth of the economic infrastructures with unpredictable life losses. The estimated cost of recovery of such losses is nearly 400B USD. The second scenario is earthquake without Tsunami that will impact the major urban and infrastructures. The last scenario is tidal gauges events that threaten the low-lying areas particularly the eastern side which has major land subsidence.

Keywords: natural hazards, earthquakes, tusnami, Nile delta, Egypt

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Hyunjung Kim, Kune-Woo Lee

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Decommissioning process of nuclear facilities can be said to consist of a sequence of problem solving activities, partly because there may exist working environments contaminated by radiological exposure, and partly because there may also exist industrial hazards such as fire, explosions, toxic materials, and electrical and physical hazards. As for an individual hazard factor, risk assessment techniques are getting known to industrial workers with advance of safety technology, but the way how to integrate those results is not. Furthermore, there are few workers who experienced decommissioning operations a lot in the past. Therefore, not a few countries in the world have been trying to develop appropriate counter techniques in order to guarantee safety and efficiency of the process. In spite of that, there still exists neither domestic nor international standard since nuclear facilities are too diverse and unique. In the consequence, it is quite inevitable to imagine and assess the whole risk in the situation anticipated one by one. This paper aimed to find out an appropriate technique to integrate individual risk assessment results from the viewpoint of experts. Thus, on one hand the whole risk assessment activity for decommissioning operations was modeled as a sequence of individual risk assessment steps, and on the other, a hierarchical risk structure was developed. Then, risk assessment procedure that can elicit individual hazard factors one by one were introduced with reference to the standard operation procedure (SOP) and hierarchical task analysis (HTA). With an assumption of quantification and normalization of individual risks, a technique to estimate relative weight factors was tried by using the conventional Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) and its result was reviewed with reference to judgment of experts. Besides, taking the ambiguity of human judgment into consideration, debates based upon fuzzy inference was added with a mathematical case study.

Keywords: decommissioning, risk assessment, analytic hierarchical process (AHP), fuzzy inference

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Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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Authors: Amirhossein Karamoozian, Desheng Wu, Behzad Abbasnejad

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Building information modelling (BIM) is a new technology to enhance the efficiency of project management in the construction industry. In addition to the potential benefits of this useful technology, there are various risks and obstacles to applying it in construction projects. In this study, a decision making approach is presented for risk assessment in BIM adoption in construction projects. Various risk factors of exerting BIM during different phases of the project lifecycle are identified with the help of Delphi method, experts’ opinions and related literature. Afterward, Shannon’s entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation) are applied to derive priorities of the identified risk factors. Results indicated that lack of knowledge between professional engineers about workflows in BIM and conflict of opinions between different stakeholders are the risk factors with the highest priority.

Keywords: risk, BIM, fuzzy TOPSIS, construction projects

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Authors: John Deely, Stephen Hynes, Mary Cawley, Sarah Hogan

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Domestic marine and coastal tourism have increased in importance over the last number of years due to the impacts of international travel, environmental concerns, associated health benefits and COVID-19 related travel restrictions. Consequently, this paper conceptualizes domestic marine and coastal tourism within an economic framework. Two logit models examine the factors that influence participation in the coastal day trips and overnight stays markets, respectively. Two truncated travel cost models are employed to explore trip duration, one analyzing the number of day trips taken and the other examining the number of nights spent in marine and coastal areas. Although a range of variables predicts participation, no one variable had a significant and consistent effect on every model. A division in access to domestic marine and coastal tourism is also observed based on variation in household income. The results also indicate a vibrant day trip market and large consumer surpluses.

Keywords: domestic marine and coastal tourism, day tripper, participation models, truncated travel cost model

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Authors: Lagnajeet Mohanty, Mohnish Mishra, Pratham Tapdiya, Himanshu Sekhar Nayak, Swetapadma Singh

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In the era of global interconnectedness, effective risk assessment and management are critical for organizational resilience. This review explores the integration of machine learning (ML) into risk processes, examining its transformative potential and the challenges it presents. The literature reveals ML's success in sectors like consumer credit, demonstrating enhanced predictive accuracy, adaptability, and potential cost savings. However, ethical considerations, interpretability issues, and the demand for skilled practitioners pose limitations. Looking forward, the study identifies future research scopes, including refining ethical frameworks, advancing interpretability techniques, and fostering interdisciplinary collaborations. The synthesis of limitations and future directions highlights the dynamic landscape of ML in risk management, urging stakeholders to navigate challenges innovatively. This abstract encapsulates the evolving discourse on ML's role in shaping proactive and effective risk management strategies in our interconnected and unpredictable global landscape.

Keywords: machine learning, risk assessment, ethical considerations, financial inclusion

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Authors: Cai Qianyi

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In the midst of global digital revolution, the flow of data poses security threats that call China's existing legislative framework for protecting personal information into question. As a preliminary procedure for risk analysis and prevention, the risk assessment of personal data transmission lacks detailed guidelines for support. Existing provisions reveal unclear responsibilities for network operators and weakened rights for data subjects. Furthermore, the regulatory system's weak operability and a lack of industry self-regulation heighten data transmission hazards. This paper aims to compare the regulatory pathways for data information transmission risks between China and Europe from a legal framework and content perspective. It draws on the “Data Protection Impact Assessment Guidelines” to empower multiple stakeholders, including data processors, controllers, and subjects, while also defining obligations. In conclusion, this paper intends to solve China's digital security shortcomings by developing a more mature regulatory framework and industry self-regulation mechanisms, resulting in a win-win situation for personal data protection and the development of the digital economy.

Keywords: personal information data transmission, risk assessment, DPIA, internet service provider, personal information data transimission, risk assessment

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Authors: Cherdvong Saengsupavanich

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Human utilizes coastal resources as well as deteriorates them. Coastal tourism may degrade the environment if poorly managed. This research investigated the shoreline change at Koa Toa Island, one of the most famous tourist destinations. Aerial photographs and satellite images from three different periods were collected and analyzed. The results showed that the noticeable shoreline change before and after the tourism on the island had expanded. Between 1995 and 2002 when the tourism on Koh Toa Island was not intensive, sediment deposition occurred along most of the coastline. However, after the tourism had grown during 2002 to 2015, the coast evidently experienced less deposition and more erosion. The erosion resulted from less land-based sediment being provided to the littoral system. If the coastline of Koh Toa Island is not carefully sustained, the tourism will disappear along with the beautiful beach.  

Keywords: coastal engineering and management, coastal erosion, coastal tourism, Koh Toa Island, Thailand

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Authors: Varis Ransibrahmanakul, Doug Pirhalla, Scott Sheridan, Cameron Lee

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U.S. coastal areas and ecosystems are facing multiple sea level rise threats and effects: heavy rain events, cyclones, and changing wind and weather patterns all influence coastal flooding, sedimentation, and erosion along critical barrier islands and can strongly impact habitat resiliency and water quality in protected habitats. These impacts are increasing over time and have accelerated the need for new tracking techniques, models and tools of flood risk to support enhanced preparedness for coastal management and mitigation. To address this issue, NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) evaluated new metrics from satellite altimetry AVISO/Copernicus and MODIS IR flood extents to isolate nodes atmospheric variability indicative of elevated sea level and nuisance flood events. Using de-trended time series of cross-shelf sea surface heights (SSH), we identified specific Self Organizing Maps (SOM) nodes and transitions having a strongest regional association with oceanic spatial patterns (e.g., heightened downwelling favorable wind-stress and enhanced southward coastal transport) indicative of elevated coastal sea levels. Results show the impacts of the inverted barometer effect as well as the effects of surface wind forcing; Ekman-induced transport along broad expanses of the U.S. eastern coastline. Higher sea levels and corresponding localized flooding are associated with either pattern indicative of enhanced on-shore flow, deepening cyclones, or local- scale winds, generally coupled with an increased local to regional precipitation. These findings will support an integration of satellite products and will inform seasonal outlook model development supported through NOAAs Climate Program Office and NOS office of Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). Overall results will prioritize ecological areas and coastal lab facilities at risk based on numbers of nuisance flood projected and inform coastal management of flood risk around low lying areas subjected to bank erosion.

Keywords: AVISO satellite altimetry SSHA, MODIS IR flood map, nuisance flood, remote sensing of flood

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Authors: Bouba Oumarou Aboubakar, HongXia Li, Sardar Annes Farooq

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The Belt and Road Initiative’s success strongly depends on the safety of all the million workers on construction projects sites. As the new BRI is directed toward Africa and meets a completely different culture from the Chinese project managers, maintaining low risk for workers risks shall be closely related to cultural sharing and mutual understanding. This is why this work introduces a cultural-wise safety management framework for Chinese Construction projects in Africa. The theoretical contribution of this paper is an improved risk assessment framework that integrates language, culture and difficulty of controlling risk factors into one approach. Practically, this study provides not only a useful tool for project safety management practitioners but the full understanding of all risks that may arise in the BRI projects in Africa.

Keywords: cultural-wise, safety culture, risk assessment, Chinese construction, BRI projects, Africa

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Authors: Muhammad Wasif, Asif Ahmed Shaikh, Sarosh Hashmat Lodi, Muhammad Aslam Bhutto, Riazuddin

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Risk Management System is quite popular in profit- based organizations, health and safety and project management fields since the last few decades. But due to rapidly changing environment and requirement of ISO 9001:2015 standards, public-sector institution, especially higher education institutes are also performing risk assessment to monitor the performance of the institution and aligning it with the latest benchmark. In this context, NED University of Engineering and Technology performed research and developed a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for the risk assessment, its monitoring and control. In this research, risks are broken into the four sources, namely; Internal Academics Risks, External Academics Risks, Internal Non-academic Risks, External Non-academic Risks. Risks are identified by the management at all levels. Severity and likelihood of the risks are assigned based on the previous audit results and the customer complains. Risk Ratings are calculated to orderly arrange the risk according to the Risk Rating, and controls for the risks are designed, which are assigned to the responsible person. At the end of the article, result and analysis on the different sources of risk are discussed in details and the conclusion is drawn. Discussion on few sample risks are presented in this article. Hence it is presented in the research that the Risk Management System can be applied in a Higher Education Institute to effectively control the risks which might affect the scope and Quality Management System of an organization.

Keywords: higher education, quality management system, risk assessment, risk management

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Authors: Ines Gasmi, Salima Smiti, Makram Soui, Khaled Ghedira

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Credit risk is considered as one of the important issues for financial institutions. It provokes great losses for banks. To this objective, numerous methods for credit risk evaluation have been proposed. Many evaluation methods are black box models that cannot adequately reveal information hidden in the data. However, several works have focused on building transparent rules-based models. For credit risk assessment, generated rules must be not only highly accurate, but also highly interpretable. In this paper, we aim to build both, an accurate and transparent credit risk evaluation model which proposes a set of classification rules. In fact, we consider the credit risk evaluation as an optimization problem which uses a genetic programming (GP) algorithm, where the goal is to maximize the accuracy of generated rules. We evaluate our proposed approach on the base of German and Australian credit datasets. We compared our finding with some existing works; the result shows that the proposed GP outperforms the other models.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, rule generation, genetic programming, feature selection

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Authors: Prandesha Govender, Chris Cloete

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Purpose: The objective of the paper is to develop a tool for the evaluation of the financial risk of a shopping center. Methodology: Important factors that indicate the success of a shopping center were identified from the available literature. Weights were allocated to these factors and a risk rating was calculated for 505 shopping centers in the largest province in South Africa by taking the factor scores, factor weights, and category weights into account. The ratings for ten randomly selected shopping centers were correlated with consumer feedback and standardized against the ECAI (External Credit Assessment Institutions) data for the same centers. The ratings were also mapped to corporates with the same risk rating to provide a better intuitive assessment of the meaning of the inherent risk of each center. Results: The proposed risk tool shows a strong linear correlation with consumer views and can be compared to expert opinions, such as that of fund managers and REITs. Interpretation of the tool was also illustrated by correlating the risk rating of selected shopping centers to the risk rating of reputable and established entities. Conclusions: The proposed Shopping Centre Risk Tool, used in conjunction with financial inputs from the relevant center, should prove useful to an investor when the desirability of investment in or expansion, renovation, or purchase of a shopping center is being considered.

Keywords: risk, shopping centres, risk modelling, investment, rating tool, rating scale

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Authors: L. Salvati, D. Smiraglia, S. Bajocco, M. Munafò

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This paper focuses on Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC) occurred in the urban coastal regions of the Mediterranean basin in the last thirty years. LULCC were assessed diachronically (1975-2006) in two urban areas, Rome (Italy) and Athens (Greece), by using CORINE land cover maps. In strictly coastal territories a persistent growth of built-up areas at the expenses of both agricultural and forest land uses was found. On the contrary, a different pattern was observed in the surrounding inland areas, where a high conversion rate of the agricultural land uses to both urban and forest land uses was recorded. The impact of city growth on the complex pattern of coastal LULCC is finally discussed.

Keywords: land use changes, coastal region, Rome prefecture, Attica, southern Europe

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

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The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty

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Authors: Thomas Ruppert, Shana Jones, J. Scott Pippin

Abstract:

State and federal government agencies within the United States have recently invested substantial resources into studies of future flood risk conditions associated with climate change and sea-level rise. A review of numerous case studies has uncovered several key themes that speak to an overall incoherence within current flood risk assessment procedures in the U.S. context. First, there are substantial local differences in the quality of available information about basic infrastructure, particularly with regard to local stormwater features and essential facilities that are fundamental components of effective flood hazard planning and mitigation. Second, there can be substantial mismatch between regulatory Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) as produced by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and other 'current condition' flood assessment approaches. This is of particular concern in areas where FIRMs already seem to underestimate extant flood risk, which can only be expected to become a greater concern if future FIRMs do not appropriately account for changing climate conditions. Moreover, while there are incentives within the NFIP’s Community Rating System (CRS) to develop enhanced assessments that include future flood risk projections from climate change, the incentive structures seem to have counterintuitive implications that would tend to promote moral hazard. In particular, a technical finding of higher future risk seems to make it easier for a community to qualify for flood insurance savings, with much of these prospective savings applied to individual properties that have the most physical risk of flooding. However, there is at least some case study evidence to indicate that recognition of these issues is prompting broader discussion about the need to move beyond FIRMs as a standalone local flood planning standard. The paper concludes with approaches for developing climate adaptation and flood resilience strategies in the U.S. that move away from the social welfare model being applied through NFIP and toward more of an informed risk approach that transfers much of the investment responsibility over to individual private property owners.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, flood risk, moral hazard, sea-level rise

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Authors: Abduladim Maitieg, Mark Johnson

Abstract:

Developing a coastal oil spill management plan for the Misratah coast is the motivating factor for building a database for coastal and marine systems and energy resources. Wind direction and speed, currents, bathymetry, coastal topography and offshore dynamics influence oil spill deposition in coastal water. Therefore, oceanographic and climatological data can be used to understand oil slick movement and potential oil deposits on shoreline area and the behaviour of oil spill trajectories on the sea surface. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the coastal and marine physical factors under strong wave conditions and various bathymetric and coastal topography gradients in the western coastal area of Libya on the movement of oil slicks. The movement of oil slicks was computed using a GNOME simulation model based on current and wind speed/direction. The results in this paper show that (1) Oil slick might reach the Misratah shoreline area in two days in the summer and winter. Seasons. (2 ) The North coast of Misratah is the potential oil deposit area on the Misratah coast. (3) Tarball pollution was observed along the North coast of Misratah. (4) Two scenarios for the summer and the winter season were run, along the western coast of Libya . (5) The eastern coast is at a lower potential risk due to the influence of wind and current energy in the Gulf of Sidra. (6) The Misratah coastline is more vulnerable to oil spill movement in the summer than in winter seasons. (7) Oil slick takes from 2 to 5 days to reach the saltmarsh in the eastern Misratah coast. (8) Oil slick moves 300 km in 30 days from the spill resource location near the Libyan western border to the Misratah coast.(9) Bathymetric features have a profound effect on oil spill movement. (9)Oil dispersion simulations using GNOME are carried out taking into account high-resolution wind and current data.

Keywords: oil spill movement, coastal and marine physical factors, coast area, Libyan

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Lu Xia, Nasreen Jeelani, Shuqing An

Abstract:

Spartina alterniflora, a species native to the east coast of North America, is currently the focus of increasing management concern due to its rapid expansion in coastal China. A total of 60 individuals and hundreds of seeds of S. alterniflora collected from three states in the United States representing three ecotypes (F-, G- and N-), i. e., Tampa Bay of Florida, Altamaha estuary of Georgia and Morehead City of North Carolina, were introduced into China in 1979 for ecological engineering purposes. To better understand the plant traits associated with the success of invasion, we examined distribution of ecotype hybrids and ecotype mixtures of the species in China. We collected and analyzed 144 samples from seven populations throughout coastal China (21.6º-38.6ºN; 109.7º-121.8ºE) using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP) markers. Results of assignment show that both ecotype hybrids and ecotype mixtures exist in coastal China, especially in southern populations. Therefore, the species’ success in coastal China may be attributable largely to the coexistence of various ecotype hybrids and ecotype mixtures.

Keywords: ecotype hybrids, ecotype mixtures, Spartina alterniflora, coastal China

Procedia PDF Downloads 357