Search results for: supply and demand prediction

Authors: A. Senthil Kumar, V. Murali Bhaskaran

Abstract:

In the information technology ground, people are using various tools and software for their official use and personal reasons. Nowadays, people are worrying to choose data accessing and extraction tools at the time of buying and selling their products. In addition, worry about various quality factors such as price, durability, color, size, and availability of the product. The main purpose of the research study is to find solutions to these unsolved existing problems. The proposed algorithm is a Multidirectional Rank Prediction (MDRP) decision making algorithm in order to take an effective strategic decision at all the levels of data extraction, uses a real time textile dataset and analyzes the results. Finally, the results are obtained and compared with the existing measurement methods such as PCC, SLCF, and VSS. The result accuracy is higher than the existing rank prediction methods.

Keywords: Knowledge Discovery in Database (KDD), Multidirectional Rank Prediction (MDRP), Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient (PCC), VSS (Vector Space Similarity)

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Eileen Kim

Abstract:

As socioeconomic disparities grew in New York during the 1970s, artists represented new values that came with the times. Street art, in particular, was birthed from a distinctly urban, fringe setting to ultimately become one of the most lucrative forms of art today. Examining the economic and psychological reasons behind the rise of street art, this paper delves into the development of the art market as a parallel insight into human behaviors and economic models such as supply and demand. The purpose of this study is to show the role of the increasingly divided socioeconomic classes and the rise of art collecting as an asset-building form. This study concludes that the iconography and market value of street art represented distinct values that came from a series of intertwined social matters such as racial tensions and revolutions in industrial innovation.

Keywords: art industry, cultural representation, ethnicity, markets, public property, social classes, street art

Procedia PDF Downloads 210

Authors: Henok Hailemariam, Frank Wuttke

Abstract:

Collapsible soils are weak soils that appear to be stable in their natural state, normally dry condition, but rapidly deform under saturation (wetting), thus generating large and unexpected settlements which often yield disastrous consequences for structures unwittingly built on such deposits. In this study, a prediction model for the relative subsidence of stressed collapsible soils based on dielectric permittivity measurement is presented. Unlike most existing methods for soil subsidence prediction, this model does not require moisture content as an input parameter, thus providing the opportunity to obtain accurate estimation of the relative subsidence of collapsible soils using dielectric measurement only. The prediction model is developed based on an existing relative subsidence prediction model (which is dependent on soil moisture condition) and an advanced theoretical frequency and temperature-dependent electromagnetic mixing equation (which effectively removes the moisture content dependence of the original relative subsidence prediction model). For large scale sub-surface soil exploration purposes, the spatial sub-surface soil dielectric data over wide areas and high depths of weak (collapsible) soil deposits can be obtained using non-destructive high frequency electromagnetic (HF-EM) measurement techniques such as ground penetrating radar (GPR). For laboratory or small scale in-situ measurements, techniques such as an open-ended coaxial line with widely applicable time domain reflectometry (TDR) or vector network analysers (VNAs) are usually employed to obtain the soil dielectric data. By using soil dielectric data obtained from small or large scale non-destructive HF-EM investigations, the new model can effectively predict the relative subsidence of weak soils without the need to extract samples for moisture content measurement. Some of the resulting benefits are the preservation of the undisturbed nature of the soil as well as a reduction in the investigation costs and analysis time in the identification of weak (problematic) soils. The accuracy of prediction of the presented model is assessed by conducting relative subsidence tests on a collapsible soil at various initial soil conditions and a good match between the model prediction and experimental results is obtained.

Keywords: collapsible soil, dielectric permittivity, moisture content, relative subsidence

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: Pardis Moslemzadeh Tehrani

Abstract:

Due to the emergence of blockchain technology and the benefits of cryptocurrencies, intelligent or smart contracts are gaining traction. Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming our lives, and it is being embraced by a wide range of sectors. Smart contracts, which are at the heart of blockchains, incorporate AI characteristics. Such contracts are referred to as "smart" contracts because of the underlying technology that allows contracting parties to agree on terms expressed in computer code that defines machine-readable instructions for computers to follow under specific situations. The transmission happens automatically if the conditions are met. Initially utilised for financial transactions, blockchain applications have since expanded to include the financial, insurance, and medical sectors, as well as supply networks. Raw material acquisition by suppliers, design, and fabrication by manufacturers, delivery of final products to consumers, and even post-sales logistics assistance are all part of supply chains. Many issues are linked with managing supply chains from the planning and coordination stages, which can be implemented in a smart contract in a blockchain due to their complexity. Manufacturing delays and limited third-party amounts of product components have raised concerns about the integrity and accountability of supply chains for food and pharmaceutical items. Other concerns include regulatory compliance in multiple jurisdictions and transportation circumstances (for instance, many products must be kept in temperature-controlled environments to ensure their effectiveness). Products are handled by several providers before reaching customers in modern economic systems. Information is sent between suppliers, shippers, distributors, and retailers at every stage of the production and distribution process. Information travels more effectively when individuals are eliminated from the equation. The usage of blockchain technology could be a viable solution to these coordination issues. In blockchains, smart contracts allow for the rapid transmission of production data, logistical data, inventory levels, and sales data. This research investigates the legal and technical advantages and disadvantages of AI-blockchain technology in the supply chain business. It aims to uncover the applicable legal problems and barriers to the use of AI-blockchain technology to supply chains, particularly in the food industry. It also discusses the essential legal and technological issues and impediments to supply chain implementation for stakeholders, as well as methods for overcoming them before releasing the technology to clients. Because there has been little research done on this topic, it is difficult for industrial stakeholders to grasp how blockchain technology could be used in their respective operations. As a result, the focus of this research will be on building advanced and complex contractual terms in supply chain smart contracts on blockchains to cover all unforeseen supply chain challenges.

Keywords: blockchain, supply chain, IoT, smart contract

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Ayse Begum Kilic, Sevgi Ozkan

Abstract:

Industry 4.0 (I4.0) is a significant and promising research topic that is expected to gain more importance due to its effects on important concepts like cost, resource management, and accessibility. Instead of focusing those effects in only one area, combining different departments, and see the big picture helps to make more realistic predictions about the future. The aim of this paper is to identify the implications of Industry 4.0 for both supply chain management and human resources management by finding out the topics that take place at the intersection of them. Another objective is helping the readers to realize the expected changes in these two areas due to I4.0 in order to take the necessary steps in advance and make recommendations to catch up the latest trends. The expected changes are concluded from the industry reports and related journal papers in the literature. As found in the literature, this study is the first to combine the Industry 4.0, supply chain management and human resources management and urges to lead future works by finding out the intersections of those three areas. Benefits of I4.0 and the amount, research areas and the publication years of papers on I4.0 in the academic journals are mentioned in this paper. One of the main findings of this research is that a change in the labor force qualifications is expected with the advancements in the technology. There will be a need for higher level of skills from the workers. This will directly affect the human resources management in a way of recruiting and managing those people. Another main finding is, as it is explained with an example in the article, the advancements in the technology will change the place of production. For instance, 'dark factories', a popular topic of I4.0, will enable manufacturers to produce in places that close to their marketplace. The supply chains are expected to be influenced by that change.

Keywords: human resources management, industry 4.0, logistics, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Pawel Sowa, Joachim Bargiel

Abstract:

This paper presents modern solutions of distributed generation in rural communities aiming at the improvement of energy and environmental security, as well as power supply reliability to important customers (e.g. health care, sensitive consumer required continuity). Distributed sources are mainly gas and biogas cogeneration units, as well as wind and photovoltaic sources. Some examples of their applications in a selected Silesian community are given.

Keywords: energy security, mini energy centres , power engineering, power supply reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 284

Authors: Yuwaratu Syafira, Wahyu K. Y. Putra, Kusharisupeni Djokosujono

Abstract:

Background/Objective: Body Mass Index (BMI) serves various purposes, including measuring the prevalence of obesity in a population, and also in formulating a patient’s diet at a hospital, and can be calculated with the equation = body weight (kg)/body height (m)². However, the BMI of an individual with difficulties in carrying their weight or standing up straight can not necessarily be measured. The aim of this study was to form a prediction model for the BMI of young adult students of Public Health Faculty of University of Indonesia. Subject/Method: This study used a cross sectional design, with a total sample of 132 respondents, consisted of 58 males and 74 females aged 21- 30. The dependent variable of this study was BMI, and the independent variables consisted of sex and anthropometric measurements, which included ulna length, arm length, tibia length, knee height, mid-upper arm circumference, and calf circumference. Anthropometric information was measured and recorded in a single sitting. Simple and multiple linear regression analysis were used to create the prediction equation for BMI. Results: The male respondents had an average BMI of 24.63 kg/m² and the female respondents had an average of 22.52 kg/m². A total of 17 variables were analysed for its correlation with BMI. Bivariate analysis showed the variable with the strongest correlation with BMI was Mid-Upper Arm Circumference/√Ulna Length (MUAC/√UL) (r = 0.926 for males and r = 0.886 for females). Furthermore, MUAC alone also has a very strong correlation with BMI (r = 0,913 for males and r = 0,877 for females). Prediction models formed from either MUAC/√UL or MUAC alone both produce highly accurate predictions of BMI. However, measuring MUAC/√UL is considered inconvenient, which may cause difficulties when applied on the field. Conclusion: The prediction model considered most ideal to estimate BMI is: Male BMI (kg/m²) = 1.109(MUAC (cm)) – 9.202 and Female BMI (kg/m²) = 0.236 + 0.825(MUAC (cm)), based on its high accuracy levels and the convenience of measuring MUAC on the field.

Keywords: body mass index, mid-upper arm circumference, prediction model, ulna length

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Ejaz Ahmed, Huang Yong

Abstract:

The operation of aero engines has a critical importance in the vicinity of lean blowout (LBO) limits. Lefebvre’s model of LBO based on empirical correlation has been extended to flame volume concept by the authors. The flame volume takes into account the effects of geometric configuration, the complex spatial interaction of mixing, turbulence, heat transfer and combustion processes inside the gas turbine combustion chamber. For these reasons, flame volume based LBO predictions are more accurate. Although LBO prediction accuracy has improved, it poses a challenge associated with Vf estimation in real gas turbine combustors. This work extends the approach of flame volume prediction previously based on fuel iterative approximation with cold flow simulations to reactive flow simulations. Flame volume for 11 combustor configurations has been simulated and validated against experimental data. To make prediction methodology robust as required in the preliminary design stage, reactive flow simulations were carried out with the combination of probability density function (PDF) and discrete phase model (DPM) in FLUENT 15.0. The criterion for flame identification was defined. Two important parameters i.e. critical injection diameter (Dp,crit) and critical temperature (Tcrit) were identified, and their influence on reactive flow simulation was studied for Vf estimation. Obtained results exhibit ±15% error in Vf estimation with experimental data.

Keywords: CFD, combustion, gas turbine combustor, lean blowout

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: Charles Amoatey, Ebenezer Kumah

Abstract:

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of implementation of Distributor Management Solution (DMS) on supply chain performance in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry in Ghana. Methodology: A purposive sampling approach was used in selecting the respondents for the study. Data was collected from senior management and field supervisors from sales, distribution and customer service units of the case study firm and its channel members. This study made use of systematic literature review and results of survey data analysis to assess how information system has been used to improve supply chain performance. Findings: Results from the study showed that the critical effect factors from implementation of a DMS include (1) Obtain prompt and reliable feedback from the market; (2) Building the capacity and skills levels of employees as well as 3rd Party Agents; (3) Motivated top management to invest in MIS; and (4) Performance improvement in sales route management. The most critical challenges to an effective and sustainable MIS implementation are lack of enough trained IT employees and high barriers to cultural change especially with distributors. The paper recommends consistent investment in IS infrastructure and development of IT skills. Research limitations/implications: This study contributes to the literature by exploring the effects of distribution management solution implementation and supply chain performance in a developing country context. Considering the fact that this study is based on data from only one case study firm and its channel members, generalization of the results should be treated with caution. Practical implications: The findings have confirmed the benefits of implementing a Management Information System. The result should encourage channel members to allocate adequate resources for building MIS capacity to enhance their supply chain performance. Originality/Value: In this paper, the relationship between DMS/MIS implementation and improvement in supply chain performance, in the Ghanaian context, has been established.

Keywords: distributor management solution, fast-moving consumer goods, supply chain management, information systems, Ghana

Procedia PDF Downloads 551

Authors: María Reveles-Miranda, Daniella Pacheco-Catalán

Abstract:

Sierra Papacal commissary is located north of Merida, Yucatan, México, where the indigenous Maya population predominates. Due to its location, the region has an elevation of fewer than 4.5 meters above sea level, with a high risk of flooding associated with storms and hurricanes and a high vulnerability of infrastructure and housing in the presence of strong gusts of wind. In environmental contingencies, the challenge is providing an autonomous electrical supply using renewable energy sources that cover vulnerable populations' health, food, and water pumping needs. To address this challenge, a hybrid energy storage module is proposed for the emergency photovoltaic (PV) system of the community shelter in Sierra Papacal, Yucatán, which combines high-energy-density batteries and high-power-density supercapacitors (SC) in a single module, providing a quick response to energy demand, reducing the thermal stress on batteries and extending their useful life. Incorporating SC in energy storage modules can provide fast response times to power variations and balanced energy extraction, ensuring a more extended period of electrical supply to vulnerable populations during contingencies. The implemented control strategy increases the module's overall performance by ensuring the optimal use of devices and balanced energy exploitation. The operation of the module with the control algorithm is validated with MATLAB/Simulink® and experimental tests.

Keywords: batteries, community shelter, environmental contingencies, hybrid energy storage, isolated photovoltaic system, supercapacitors

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Aasheesh Raturi, Vimal Kothiyal, P. D. Semalty

Abstract:

We studied mechanical properties of Eucalyptus tereticornis using FT-NIR spectroscopy. Firstly, spectra were pre-processed to eliminate useless information. Then, prediction model was constructed by partial least squares regression. To study the influence of pre-processing on prediction of mechanical properties for NIR analysis of wood samples, we applied various pretreatment methods like straight line subtraction, constant offset elimination, vector-normalization, min-max normalization, multiple scattering. Correction, first derivative, second derivatives and their combination with other treatment such as First derivative + straight line subtraction, First derivative+ vector normalization and First derivative+ multiplicative scattering correction. The data processing methods in combination of preprocessing with different NIR regions, RMSECV, RMSEP and optimum factors/rank were obtained by optimization process of model development. More than 350 combinations were obtained during optimization process. More than one pre-processing method gave good calibration/cross-validation and prediction/test models, but only the best calibration/cross-validation and prediction/test models are reported here. The results show that one can safely use NIR region between 4000 to 7500 cm-1 with straight line subtraction, constant offset elimination, first derivative and second derivative preprocessing method which were found to be most appropriate for models development.

Keywords: FT-NIR, mechanical properties, pre-processing, PLS

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

Abstract:

Most of greenhouse growers desire a determined amount of yields in order to accurately meet market requirements. The purpose of this paper is to model a simple but often satisfactory supervised classification method. The original naive Bayes have a serious weakness, which is producing redundant predictors. In this paper, utilized regularization technique was used to obtain a computationally efficient classifier based on naive Bayes. The suggested construction, utilized L1-penalty, is capable of clearing redundant predictors, where a modification of the LARS algorithm is devised to solve this problem, making this method applicable to a wide range of data. In the experimental section, a study conducted to examine the effect of redundant and irrelevant predictors, and test the method on WSG data set for tomato yields, where there are many more predictors than data, and the urge need to predict weekly yield is the goal of this approach. Finally, the modified approach is compared with several naive Bayes variants and other classification algorithms (SVM and kNN), and is shown to be fairly good.

Keywords: tomato yield prediction, naive Bayes, redundancy, WSG

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Birome Holo Ba, Christian Prins, Caroline Prodhon

Abstract:

Optimization is an important aspect of logistics management. It can reduce significantly logistics costs and also be a good tool for decision support. In this paper, we address a planning problem specific to biomass supply chain. We propose a new mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model dealing with different feed stock production operations such as harvesting, packing, storage, pre-processing and transportation, with the objective of minimizing the total logistic cost of the system on a regional basis. It determines the optimal number of harvesting machine, the fleet size of trucks for transportation and the amount of each type of biomass harvested, stored and pre-processed in each period to satisfy demands of refineries in each period. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposal model with a numerical example, a case study in Aube (France department), which gives preliminary and interesting, results on a small test case.

Keywords: biomass logistics, supply chain, modelling, optimization, bioenergy, biofuels

Procedia PDF Downloads 499

Authors: Riznaldi Akbar

Abstract:

In this study, we compared the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with back-propagation algorithm in correctly predicting in-sample and out-of-sample external debt crisis in Indonesia. We found that exchange rate, foreign reserves, and exports are the major determinants to experiencing external debt crisis. The ANN in-sample performance provides relatively superior results. The ANN model is able to classify correctly crisis of 89.12 per cent with reasonably low false alarms of 7.01 per cent. In out-of-sample, the prediction performance fairly deteriorates compared to their in-sample performances. It could be explained as the ANN model tends to over-fit the data in the in-sample, but it could not fit the out-of-sample very well. The 10-fold cross-validation has been used to improve the out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results also offer policy implications. The out-of-sample performance could be very sensitive to the size of the samples, as it could yield a higher total misclassification error and lower prediction accuracy. The ANN model could be used to identify past crisis episodes with some accuracy, but predicting crisis outside the estimation sample is much more challenging because of the presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: debt crisis, external debt, artificial neural network, ANN

Procedia PDF Downloads 424

Authors: Phawichsak Prapassornpitaya, Wanida Jinsart

Abstract:

Daily monitoring PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ data from 2007 to 2017 were analyzed to provide baseline data for prediction of the air pollution in Bangkok in the period of 2018 -2020. Two statistical models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) were used to evaluate the trends of pollutions. The prediction concentrations were tested by root means square error (RMSE) and index of agreement (IOA). This evaluation of the traffic PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ were studied in association with the regulatory control and emission standard changes. The emission factors of particulate matter from diesel vehicles were decreased when applied higher number of euro standard. The trends of ambient air pollutions were expected to decrease. However, the Bangkok smog episode in February 2018 with temperature inversion caused high concentration of PM₂.₅ in the air environment of Bangkok. The impact of traffic pollutants was depended upon the emission sources, temperature variations, and metrological conditions.

Keywords: fine particulate matter, ARIMA, RMSE, Bangkok

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: S. M. Gupta, Vanita Aggarwal, Som Nath Sachdeva

Abstract:

The work reported through this paper is an experimental work conducted on High Performance Concrete (HPC) with super plasticizer with the aim to develop some models suitable for prediction of compressive strength of HPC mixes. In this study, the effect of varying proportions of fly ash (0% to 50% at 10% increment) on compressive strength of high performance concrete has been evaluated. The mix designs studied were M30, M40 and M50 to compare the effect of fly ash addition on the properties of these concrete mixes. In all eighteen concrete mixes have been designed, three as conventional concretes for three grades under discussion and fifteen as HPC with fly ash with varying percentages of fly ash. The concrete mix designing has been done in accordance with Indian standard recommended guidelines i.e. IS: 10262. All the concrete mixes have been studied in terms of compressive strength at 7 days, 28 days, 90 days and 365 days. All the materials used have been kept same throughout the study to get a perfect comparison of values of results. The models for compressive strength prediction have been developed using Linear Regression method (LR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Leave One Out Validation (LOOV) methods.

Keywords: high performance concrete, fly ash, concrete mixes, compressive strength, strength prediction models, linear regression, ANN

Procedia PDF Downloads 426

Authors: Muhammad Zia Ullah Baig, Atiq Uz Zama

Abstract:

The motivation of the project is to facilitate the governance body, as well as the common man in his/her daily life consuming product rates, to easily monitor the expense, to control the budget with the help of single SMS (message), e-mail facility, and to manage governance body by task management system. The system will also be capable of finding irregularities being done by the concerned department in mitigating the complaints generated by the customer and also provide a solution to overcome problems. We are building a system that easily controls the price control system of any country, we will feeling proud to give this system free of cost to Indian Government also. The system is able to easily manage and control the price control department of government all over the country. Price control department run in different cities under City District Government, so the system easily run in different cities with different SMS Code and decentralize Database ensure the non-functional requirement of system (scalability, reliability, availability, security, safety). The customer request for the government official price list with respect to his/her city SMS code (price list of all city available on website or application), the server will forward the price list through a SMS, if the product is not available according to the price list the customer generate a complaint through an SMS or using website/smartphone application, complaint is registered in complaint database and forward to inspection department when the complaint is entertained, the inspection department will forward a message about the complaint to customer. Inspection department physically checks the seller who does not follow the price list, but the major issue of the system is corruption, may be inspection officer will take a bribe and resolve the complaint (complaint is fake) in that case the customer will not use the system. The major issue of the system is to distinguish the fake and real complain and fight for corruption in the department. To counter the corruption, our strategy is to rank the complain if the same type of complaint is generated the complaint is in high rank and the higher authority will also notify about that complain, now the higher authority of department have reviewed the complaint and its history, the officer who resolve that complaint in past and the action against the complaint, these data will help in decision-making process, if the complaint was resolved because the officer takes bribe, the higher authority will take action against that officer. When the price of any good is decided the market/former representative is also there, with the mutual understanding of both party the price is decided, the system facilitate the decision-making process. The system shows the price history of any goods, inflation rate, available supply, demand, and the gap between supply and demand, these data will help to allot for the decision-making process.

Keywords: price control, goods, government, inspection, department, customer, employees

Procedia PDF Downloads 399

Authors: Suzan Anwar, Utkarsh Goyal

Abstract:

Heart rate (HR) is a predictor of cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and all-cause mortality in the general population, as well as in patients with cardio and cerebrovascular diseases. Machine learning (ML) significantly improves the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction, increasing the number of patients identified who could benefit from preventive treatment while avoiding unnecessary treatment of others. This research examines relationship between the individual's various heart health inputs like age, sex, cp, trestbps, thalach, oldpeaketc, and the likelihood of developing heart disease. Machine learning techniques like logistic regression and decision tree, and Python are used. The results of testing and evaluating the model using the Heart Failure Prediction Dataset show the chance of a person having a heart disease with variable accuracy. Logistic regression has yielded an accuracy of 80.48% without data handling. With data handling (normalization, standardscaler), the logistic regression resulted in improved accuracy of 87.80%, decision tree 100%, random forest 100%, and SVM 100%.

Keywords: heart rate, machine learning, SVM, decision tree, logistic regression, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Mohammad Aldubyan, Fateh Belaid, Anwar Gasim

Abstract:

This paper aims at linking to link residential energy efficiency to the rebound effect concept, a well-known behavioral phenomenon in which service consumption increases when consumers notice a reduction in monetary spending on energy due to improvements in energy efficiency. It provides insights on into how and why the rebound effect happens when energy efficiency improves and whether this phenomenon is positive or negative. It also shows one technique to estimate the rebound effect on the national residential level. The paper starts with a bird’s eye view of the rebound effect and then dives in in-depth into measuring the rebound effect and evaluating its impact. Finally, the paper estimates the rebound effect in the Saudi residential sector through by linking pre-estimated price elasticities of demand to the Saudi residential building stock.

Keywords: energy efficiency, rebound effect, energy consumption, residential electricity demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Cyril Agochi Okorowo

Abstract:

More than ever human activity relating to uncontrolled greenhouse gas (GHG) and its effects on the earth is gaining greater attention in the global academic and policy discussions. Activities of man have greatly influenced climate change over the years as a result of a consistent increase in the use of fossil fuel energy. Scientists and researchers globally are making significant and devoted efforts towards the development and implementation of renewable energy technologies that are harmless to the environment. One of such energy is solar energy with its source from the sun. There are currently two primary ways of harvesting this energy from the sun: through photovoltaic (PV) panels and through thermal collectors. This work discusses solar energy as the abundant renewable energy in the tropical Nigeria, processes of harvesting the energy and recommends solar energy as an alternative means of electric power generation in a time the demand for power in Nigeria supersedes supply.

Keywords: analysis, energy, design, solar

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.

Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Sakshi Gupta, Kavita Sardana

Abstract:

Management of a forest catchment involves diverse dimensions, multiple stakeholders, and conflicting interests, primarily due to the wide variety of valuable ecosystem services offered by it. Often, the coordination among different levels of formal institutions governing the catchment, local communities, as well as societal norms, taboos, customs and practices, happens to be amiss, leading to conflicting policy interventions which prove detrimental for such resources. In the case of Ala Catchment, which is a protected forest located at a distance of 9 km North-East of the town of Dalhousie, within district Chamba of Himachal Pradesh, India, and serves as one of the primary sources of public water supply for the downstream town of Dalhousie and nearby areas, several policy measures have been adopted for the restoration of the forest catchment, as well as for the improvement of public water supply. These catchment forest restoration measures include; the installation of a fence along the perimeter of the catchment, plantation of trees in the empty patches of the forest, construction of check dams, contour trenches, contour bunds, issuance of grazing permits, and installation of check posts to keep track of trespassers. While the measures adopted to address the acute shortage of public water supply in the Dalhousie region include; building and maintenance of large capacity water storage tanks, laying of pipelines, expanding public water distribution infrastructure to include water sources other than Ala Catchment Forest and introducing of five new water supply schemes for drinking water as well as irrigation. However, despite these policy measures, the degradation of the Ala catchment and acute shortage of water supply continue to distress the region. This study attempts to conduct an institutional analysis to assess the impact of policy measures for the restoration of the Ala Catchment in the Chamba district of Himachal Pradesh in India. For this purpose, the theoretical framework of Ostrom’s Institutional Assessment and Development (IAD) Framework was used. Snowball sampling was used to conduct private interviews and focused group discussions. A semi-structured questionnaire was administered to interview a total of 184 respondents across stakeholders from both formal and informal institutions. The central hypothesis of the study is that the interplay of formal and informal institutions facilitates the implementation of policy measures for ameliorating Ala Catchment, in turn improving the livelihood of people depending on this forest catchment for direct and indirect benefits. The findings of the study suggest that leakages in the successful implementation of policy measures occur at several nodes of decision-making, which adversely impact the catchment and the ecosystem services provided by it. Some of the key reasons diagnosed by the immediate analysis include; ad-hoc assignment of property rights, rise in tourist inflow increasing the pressures on water demand, illegal trespassing by local and nomadic pastoral communities for grazing and unlawful extraction of forest products, and rent-seeking by a few influential formal institutions. Consequently, it is indicated that the interplay of formal and informal institutions may be obscuring the consequentiality of the policy measures on the restoration of the catchment.

Keywords: catchment forest restoration, institutional analysis and development framework, institutional interplay, protected forest, water supply management

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Hilde Heim

Abstract:

The textile industry is known for its swift adoption of innovations in fashion technology (Fash-Tech). The industry is also known for its harmful effects on the environment. Opportunely, Fash-Tech is expected to facilitate the turn towards more sustainable practice. However, although several technologies have the potential for advancing sustainable practice, many industry players, whether large or small, are confused and misinformed about Fash-Tech adoption, application, and impact. Through a visual poster presentation, this project aims to map global fashion innovations along the supply chain from fibre production to waste management, thus providing a clearer picture of numbers, scale, and adoption. While the project aims to identify Fash-Tech effectiveness in reaching sustainability goals, it also identifies areas of congestion as well as insufficiency in the accessibility of Fash-Tech. This project intends to help inform future decisions in business, investment, and policy for the advancement of sustainable practice.

Keywords: fashion technology, sustainability, supply chain, enterprise management

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Oluwatosin S. Adeoye

Abstract:

The power quality issues in the world today are critical to the development of different nations. Prosperity of each nation depends on availability of constant power supply. Constant power supply is a major challenge in Africa particularly in Nigeria where the generated power is than thirty percent of the required power. The metrics of power quality are voltage dip, flickers, spikes, harmonics and interruptions. The level of interruptions in Ekiti State was examined through the investigation of the causes of power interruptions in the State. The method used was the collection of data from the Distribution Company, assessment through simple programming as a command for plotting the graphs through the use of MATLAB 2015 depicting the behavioural pattern of the interruption for a period of six months in 2016. The result shows that the interrelationship between the interruptions and development. Recommendations were suggested with the objective of solving the problems being set up by interruptions in the State and these include installation of reactors, automatic voltage regulators and effective tap changing system on the lines, busses and transformer substation respectively.

Keywords: development, frequency, interruption, power, quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Syed Abdul Rehman Khan

Abstract:

In today’s world, information sharing plays a vital role in successful operations of supply chain; and boost to the profitability of the organizations (end-to-end supply chains). Many researches have been completed over the role of information sharing in supply chain. In this research article, we will investigate the ‘how information sharing can boost profitability & productivity of the organization; for this purpose, we have developed one conceptual model and check to that model through collected data from companies. We sent questionnaire to 369 companies; and will filled form received from 172 firms and the response rate was almost 47%. For the data analysis, we have used Regression in (SPSS software) In the research findings, our all hypothesis has been accepted significantly and due to the information sharing between suppliers and manufacturers ‘quality of material and timely delivery’ increase and also ‘collaboration & trust’ will become more stronger and these all factors will lead to the company’s profitability directly and in-directly. But unfortunately, companies could not avail the all fruitful benefits of information sharing due to the fear of ‘compromise confidentiality or leakage of information’.

Keywords: collaboration, information sharing, risk factor, timely delivery

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Mita Sirait

Abstract:

Everyday Jakarta produces 7,000 tons of solid waste and only about 5,200 tons delivered to landfill out of the city by 720 trucks, the rest are left yet manageable, as reported by Government of Clean Sector. CLEAN Jakarta Project is aimed at empowering community to achieve healthy environment for children and families in urban slum in Semper Barat and Penjaringan sub-district of North Jakarta that consisted of 20,584 people. The project applies Community Based Total Sanitation, an approach to empowering community to achieve total hygiene and sanitation behaviour by triggering activities. As regulated by Ministry of Health, it has 5 pillars: (1) open defecation free, (2) hand-washing with soaps, (3) drinking-water treatment, (4) solid-waste management and (5) waste-water management; and 3 strategic components: 1) demand creation, 2) supply creation and 3) enabling environment. Demand creation is generated by triggering community’s reaction to their daily sanitation habits by exposing them to their surrounding where they can see faeces, waste and other environmental pollutant to stimulate disgusting, embarrassing and responsibility sense. Triggered people then challenged to commit to improving their hygiene practice such as to stop littering and start waste separation. In order to support this commitment, and for supply creation component, the project initiated waste bank with community working group. It facilitated capacity-building trainings, waste bank system formulation and meetings with local authorities to solicit land permit and waste bank decree. As it is of a general banking system, waste bank has customer service, teller, manager, legal paper and provides saving book and money transaction. In 8 months, two waste banks have established with 148 customers, 17 million rupiah cash, and about 9 million of stored recyclables. Approximately 2.5 tons of 15-35 types of recyclable are managed in both waste banks per week. On enabling environment, the project has initiated sanitation working group in community and multi sectors government level, and advocated both parties. The former is expected to promote behaviour change and monitoring in the community, while the latter is expected to support sanitation with regulations, strategies, appraisal and awards; to coordinate partnering and networking, and to replicate best practices to other areas.

Keywords: urban community, waste management, Jakarta, community based total sanitation (CBTS)

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Mikhail Gritskevich, Sebastian Hohenstein

Abstract:

The paper presents the results of a detailed assessment of several modern Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models for prediction of C3X vane film cooling at various injection regimes. Three models are considered, namely the Shear Stress Transport (SST) model, the modification of the SST model accounting for the streamlines curvature (SST-CC), and the Explicit Algebraic Reynolds Stress Model (EARSM). It is shown that all the considered models face with a problem in prediction of the adiabatic effectiveness in the vicinity of the cooling holes; however, accounting for the Reynolds stress anisotropy within the EARSM model noticeably increases the solution accuracy. On the other hand, further downstream all the models provide a reasonable agreement with the experimental data for the adiabatic effectiveness and among the considered models the most accurate results are obtained with the use EARMS.

Keywords: discrete holes film cooling, Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS), Reynolds stress tensor anisotropy, turbulent heat transfer

Procedia PDF Downloads 407

Authors: Pooja Rani, G. S. Mahapatra, S. K. Pandey

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a novel approach of Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization methods for software reliability prediction. We first explain how to apply compound function in neural network so that we can derive a Flexible Logistic (S-shaped) Growth Curve (FLGC) model. This model mathematically represents software failure as a random process and can be used to evaluate software development status during testing. To avoid trapping in local minima, we have applied Particle Swarm Optimization method to train proposed model using failure test data sets. We drive our proposed model using computational based intelligence modeling. Thus, proposed model becomes Neuro-Particle Swarm Optimization (NPSO) model. We do test result with different inertia weight to update particle and update velocity. We obtain result based on best inertia weight compare along with Personal based oriented PSO (pPSO) help to choose local best in network neighborhood. The applicability of proposed model is demonstrated through real time test data failure set. The results obtained from experiments show that the proposed model has a fairly accurate prediction capability in software reliability.

Keywords: software reliability, flexible logistic growth curve model, software cumulative failure prediction, neural network, particle swarm optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: Pornpimol Chaiwuttisak, Honora Smith, Yue Wu

Abstract:

Blood is a perishable product which suffers from physical deterioration with specific fixed shelf life. Although its value during the shelf life is constant, fresh blood is preferred for treatment. However, transportation costs are a major factor to be considered by administrators of Regional Blood Centres (RBCs) which act as blood collection and distribution centres. A trade-off must therefore be reached between transportation costs and short-term holding costs. In this paper we propose a number of algorithms for online allocation and routing of blood supplies, for use in conditions of variable and insufficient blood supply. A case study in northern Thailand provides an application of the allocation and routing policies tested. The plan proposed for daily allocation and distribution of blood supplies consists of two components: firstly, fixed routes are determined for the supply of hospitals which are far from an RBC. Over the planning period of one week, each hospital on the fixed routes is visited once. A robust allocation of blood is made to hospitals on the fixed routes that can be guaranteed on a suitably high percentage of days, despite variable supplies. Secondly, a variable daily route is employed for close-by hospitals, for which more than one visit per week may be needed to fulfil targets. The variable routing takes into account the amount of blood available for each day’s deliveries, which is only known on the morning of delivery. For hospitals on the variables routes, the day and amounts of deliveries cannot be guaranteed but are designed to attain targets over the six-day planning horizon. In the conditions of blood shortage encountered in Thailand, and commonly in other developing countries, it is often the case that hospitals request more blood than is needed, in the knowledge that only a proportion of all requests will be met. Our proposal is for blood supplies to be allocated and distributed to each hospital according to equitable targets based on historical demand data, calculated with regard to expected daily blood supplies. We suggest several policies that could be chosen by the decision makes for the daily distribution of blood. The different policies provide different trade-offs between transportation and holding costs. Variations in the costs of transportation, such as the price of petrol, could make different policies the most beneficial at different times. We present an application of the policies applied to a realistic case study in the RBC at Chiang Mai province which is located in Northern region of Thailand. The analysis includes a total of more than 110 hospitals, with 29 hospitals considered in the variable route. The study is expected to be a pilot for other regions of Thailand. Computational experiments are presented. Concluding remarks include the benefits gained by the online methods and future recommendations.

Keywords: online algorithm, blood distribution, developing country, insufficient blood supply

Procedia PDF Downloads 320

Authors: A. Hakimiyan, H. Namazi

Abstract:

Human behavior is defined as a range of behaviors exhibited by humans who are influenced by different internal or external sources. Human behavior is the subject of much research in different areas of psychology and neuroscience. Despite some advances in studies related to forecasting of human behavior, there are not many researches which consider the effect of the time delay between the presence of stimulus and the related human response. Analysis of EEG signal as a fractal time series is one of the major tools for studying the human behavior. In the other words, the human brain activity is reflected in his EEG signal. Artificial Neural Network has been proved useful in forecasting of different systems’ behavior especially in engineering areas. In this research, a time delay neural network is trained and tested in order to forecast the human EEG signal and subsequently human behavior. This neural network, by introducing a time delay, takes care of the lagging time between the occurrence of the stimulus and the rise of the subsequent action potential. The results of this study are useful not only for the fundamental understanding of human behavior forecasting, but shall be very useful in different areas of brain research such as seizure prediction.

Keywords: human behavior, EEG signal, time delay neural network, prediction, lagging time

Procedia PDF Downloads 648