Search results for: predictive modelling

Authors: Igor Vishnevskyi

Abstract:

Introduction: The urinary bladder undergoes repeated strain during its working cycle, suggesting the presence of an efficient support system, force transmission, and mechanical amplification. The concept of a "hydrostatic skeleton" (HS) could contribute to our understanding of the functional relationships among bladder constituents. Methods: A multidisciplinary literature review was conducted to identify key features of the HS and to gather evidence supporting its applicability in urinary bladder biomechanics. The collected evidence was synthesized to propose a framework for understanding the potential hydrostatic properties of the urinary bladder based on existing knowledge and HS principles. Results: Our analysis revealed similarities in biomechanical features between living fluid-filled structures and the urinary bladder. These similarities include the geodesic arrangement of fibres, the role of enclosed fluid (urine) in force transmission, prestress as a determinant of stiffness, and the ability to maintain shape integrity during various activities. From a biomechanical perspective, urine may be considered an essential component of the bladder. The hydrostatic skeleton, with its autonomy and flexibility, may provide insights for researchers involved in bladder engineering. Discussion: The concept of a hydrostatic skeleton offers a holistic perspective for understanding bladder function by considering multiple mechanical factors as a single structure with emergent properties. Incorporating viewpoints from various fields on HS can help identify how this concept applies to live fluid-filled structures or organs and reveal its broader relevance to biological systems, both natural and artificial. Conclusion: The hydrostatic skeleton (HS) design principle can be applied to the urinary bladder. Understanding the bladder as a structure with HS can be instrumental in biomechanical modelling and engineering. Further research is required to fully elucidate the cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying HS in the bladder.

Keywords: hydrostatic skeleton, urinary bladder morphology, shape integrity, prestress, biomechanical modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Anthony Quansah, Tresor Ntaryamira, Shula Mushota

Abstract:

Models for geotechnical centrifuge testing are usually made from re-formed soil, allowing for comparisons with naturally occurring soil deposits. However, there is a fundamental omission in this process because the natural soil is deposited in layers creating a unique structure. Nonlinear dynamics of clay material deposit is an essential part of changing the attributes of ground movements when subjected to solid seismic loading, particularly when diverse intensification conduct of speeding up and relocation are considered. The paper portrays a review of axis shaking table tests and numerical recreations to explore the offshore clay deposits subjected to seismic loadings. These perceptions are accurately reenacted by DEEPSOIL with appropriate soil models and parameters reviewed from noteworthy centrifuge modeling researches. At that point, precise 1-D site reaction investigations are performed on both time and recurrence spaces. The outcomes uncover that for profound delicate clay is subjected to expansive quakes, noteworthy increasing speed lessening may happen close to the highest point of store because of soil nonlinearity and even neighborhood shear disappointment; nonetheless, huge enhancement of removal at low frequencies are normal in any case the forces of base movements, which proposes that for dislodging touchy seaward establishments and structures, such intensified low-recurrence relocation reaction will assume an essential part in seismic outline. This research shows centrifuge as a tool for creating a layered sample important for modelling true soil behaviour (such as permeability) which is not identical in all directions. Currently, there are limited methods for creating layered soil samples.

Keywords: seismic analysis, layered modeling, terotechnology, finite element modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: C. W. F. Che Wan Putra, M. Alshawi, M. S. Al Ahbabi, M. Jabakhanji

Abstract:

The construction industry is a multi-disciplinary and multi-national industry, which has an important role to play within the overall economy of any country. There are major challenges to an improved performance within the industry. Particularly lacking is, the ability to capture the large amounts of information generated during the life-cycle of projects and to make these available, in the right format, so that professionals can then evaluate alternative solutions based on life-cycle analysis. The fragmented nature of the industry is the main reason behind the unavailability and ill utilisation of project information. The lack of adequately engaging clients and managing their requirements contributes adversely to construction budget and schedule overruns. This is a difficult task to achieve, particularly if clients are not continuously and formally involved in the design and construction process, which means that the design intent is left to designers that may not always satisfy clients’ requirements. Client lead is strongly recognised in bringing change through better collaboration between project stakeholders. However, one of the major challenges is that collaboration is operated under conventional procurement methods, which hugely limit the stakeholders’ roles and responsibilities to bring about the required level of collaboration. A research has been conducted with a typical project in the UAE. A qualitative research work was conducted including semi-structured interviews with project partners to discover the real reasons behind this delay. The case study also investigated the real causes of the problems and if they can be adequately addressed by BIM and IPD. Special focus was also placed on the Client leadership and the role the Client can play to eliminate/minimize these problems. It was found that part of the ‘key elements’ from which the problems exist can be attributed to the client leadership and the collaborative environment and BIM.

Keywords: client leadership, building information modelling (BIM), integrated project delivery (IPD), case study

Procedia PDF Downloads 313

Authors: Muhammad Irfan

Abstract:

The rise of radicalization within Islam has spawned a new era of global terror. The battlefield Successes of ISIS and the Taliban are fuelled by an ideological war waged, largely and successfully, in the media arena. This research will examine how Islamic extremist groups are using media modalities and populist narratives to influence migrant Muslim populations in Europe towards extremism. In 2014, ISIS shocked the world in exporting horrifically graphic forms of violence on social media. Their Muslim support base was largely disgusted and reviled. In response, they reconfigured their narrative by introducing populist 'hooks', astutely portraying the Muslim populous as oppressed and exploited by unjust, corrupt autocratic regimes and Western power structures. Within this crucible of real and perceived oppression, hundreds of thousands of the most desperate, vulnerable and abused migrants left their homelands, risking their lives in the hope of finding peace, justice, and prosperity in Europe. Instead, many encountered social stigmatization, detention and/or discrimination for being illegal migrants, for lacking resources and for simply being Muslim. This research will examine how Islamic extremist groups are exploiting the disenfranchisement of these migrant populations and using populist messaging on social media to influence them towards violent extremism. ISIS, in particular, formulates specific encoded messages for newly-arriving Muslims in Europe, preying upon their vulnerability. Violence is posited, as a populist response, to the tyranny of European oppression. This research will analyze the factors and indicators which propel Muslim migrants along the spectrum from resilience to violence extremism. Expected outcomes are identification of factors which influence vulnerability towards violent extremism; an early-warning detection framework; predictive analysis models; and de-radicalization frameworks. This research will provide valuable tools (practical and policy level) for European governments, security stakeholders, communities, policy-makers, and educators; it is anticipated to contribute to a de-escalation of Islamic extremism globally.

Keywords: populism, radicalization, de-radicalization, social media, ISIS, Taliban, shariah, jihad, Islam, Europe, political communication, terrorism, migrants, refugees, extremism, global terror, predictive analysis, early warning detection, models, strategic communication, populist narratives, Islamic extremism

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Evy Van Puymbroeck, Wim Nagy, Ken Schotte, Heng Fang, Hans De Backer

Abstract:

The knowledge of residual stresses for welded bridge components is essential to determine the effect of the residual stresses on the fatigue life behavior. The residual stresses of an orthotropic bridge deck are determined by simulating the welding process with finite element modelling. The stiffener is placed on top of the deck plate before welding. A chained thermal-mechanical analysis is set up to determine the distribution of residual stresses for the bridge deck. First, a thermal analysis is used to determine the temperatures of the orthotropic deck for different time steps during the welding process. Twin wire submerged arc welding is used to construct the orthotropic plate. A double ellipsoidal volume heat source model is used to describe the heat flow through a material for a moving heat source. The heat input is used to determine the heat flux which is applied as a thermal load during the thermal analysis. The heat flux for each element is calculated for different time steps to simulate the passage of the welding torch with the considered welding speed. This results in a time dependent heat flux that is applied as a thermal loading. Thermal material behavior is specified by assigning the properties of the material in function of the high temperatures during welding. Isotropic hardening behavior is included in the model. The thermal analysis simulates the heat introduced in the two plates of the orthotropic deck and calculates the temperatures during the welding process. After the calculation of the temperatures introduced during the welding process in the thermal analysis, a subsequent mechanical analysis is performed. For the boundary conditions of the mechanical analysis, the actual welding conditions are considered. Before welding, the stiffener is connected to the deck plate by using tack welds. These tack welds are implemented in the model. The deck plate is allowed to expand freely in an upwards direction while it rests on a firm and flat surface. This behavior is modelled by using grounded springs. Furthermore, symmetry points and lines are used to prevent the model to move freely in other directions. In the thermal analysis, a mechanical material model is used. The calculated temperatures during the thermal analysis are introduced during the mechanical analysis as a time dependent load. The connection of the elements of the two plates in the fusion zone is realized with a glued connection which is activated when the welding temperature is reached. The mechanical analysis results in a distribution of the residual stresses. The distribution of the residual stresses of the orthotropic bridge deck is compared with results from literature. Literature proposes uniform tensile yield stresses in the weld while the finite element modelling showed tensile yield stresses at a short distance from the weld root or the weld toe. The chained thermal-mechanical analysis results in a distribution of residual weld stresses for an orthotropic bridge deck. In future research, the effect of these residual stresses on the fatigue life behavior of welded bridge components can be studied.

Keywords: finite element modelling, residual stresses, thermal-mechanical analysis, welding simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Giovanna Grosso, Martien A. Hulsen, Arash Sarhangi Fard, Andrew Overend, Patrick. D. Anderson

Abstract:

In many industrial applications and, in particular in polymer industry, the quality of mixing between different materials is fundamental to guarantee the desired properties of finished products. However, properly modelling and understanding polymer mixing often presents noticeable difficulties, because of the variety and complexity of the physical phenomena involved. This is the case of the Cavity Transfer Mixer (CTM), for which a clear understanding of mixing mechanisms is still missing, as well as clear guidelines for the system optimization. This device, invented and patented by Gale at Rapra Technology Limited, is an add-on to be mounted downstream of existing extruders, in order to improve distributive mixing. It consists of two concentric cylinders, the rotor and stator, both provided with staggered rows of hemispherical cavities. The inner cylinder (rotor) rotates, while the outer (stator) remains still. At the same time, the pressure load imposed upstream, pushes the fluid through the CTM. Mixing processes are driven by the flow field generated by the complex interaction between the moving geometry, the imposed pressure load and the rheology of the fluid. In such a context, the present work proposes a complete and accurate three dimensional modelling of the CTM and results of a broad range of simulations assessing the impact on mixing of several geometrical and functioning parameters. Among them, we find: the number of cavities per row, the number of rows, the size of the mixer, the rheology of the fluid and the ratio between the rotation speed and the fluid throughput. The model is composed of a flow part and a mixing part: a finite element solver computes the transient velocity field, which is used in the mapping method implementation in order to simulate the concentration field evolution. Results of simulations are summarized in guidelines for the device optimization.

Keywords: Mixing, non-Newtonian fluids, polymers, rheology.

Procedia PDF Downloads 359

Authors: Kita R. Ashman, Anthony R. Rendall, Matthew R. E. Symonds, Desley A. Whisson

Abstract:

Forest cover is decreasing globally, chiefly due to the conversion of forest to agricultural landscapes. In contrast, the area under plantation forestry is increasing significantly. For wildlife occupying landscapes where native forest is the dominant land cover, plantations generally represent a lower value habitat; however, plantations established on land formerly used for pasture may benefit wildlife by providing temporary forest habitat and increasing connectivity. This study investigates the influence of landscape, site, and climatic factors on koala population density in far south-west Victoria where there has been extensive plantation establishment. We conducted koala surveys and habitat characteristic assessments at 72 sites across three habitat types: plantation, native vegetation blocks, and native vegetation strips. We employed a hierarchical modeling framework for estimating abundance and constructed candidate multinomial N-mixture models to identify factors influencing the abundance of koalas. We detected higher mean koala density in plantation sites (0.85 per ha) than in either native block (0.68 per ha) or native strip sites (0.66 per ha). We found five covariates of koala density and using these variables, we spatially modeled koala abundance and discuss factors that are key in determining large-scale distribution and density of koala populations. We provide a distribution map that can be used to identify high priority areas for population management as well as the habitat of high conservation significance for koalas. This information facilitates the linkage of ecological theory with the on-ground implementation of management actions and may guide conservation planning and resource management actions to consider overall landscape configuration as well as the spatial arrangement of plantations adjacent to the remnant forest.

Keywords: abundance modelling, arboreal mammals plantations, wildlife conservation

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Hoda Ghavamipoor, S. Alireza Hashemi Golpayegani

Abstract:

An approach to model the customer interaction with e-commerce websites is presented. Considering the service quality level as a predictive feature, we offer an improved method based on the Customer Behavior Model Graph (CBMG), a state-transition graph model. To derive the Quality of Service sensitive-CBMG (QoS-CBMG) model, process-mining techniques is applied to pre-processed website server logs which are categorized as ‘buy’ or ‘visit’. Experimental results on an e-commerce website data confirmed that the proposed method outperforms CBMG based method.

Keywords: customer behavior model, electronic commerce, quality of service, customer behavior model graph, process mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 392

Authors: Gurleen Kour, Mowkshi Khullar, B. K. Chandan, Parvinder Pal Singh, Kushalava Reddy Yumpalla, Gurunadham Munagala, Ram A. Vishwakarma, Zabeer Ahmed

Abstract:

New chemotherapeutic compounds against multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) are urgently needed to combat drug resistance in tuberculosis (TB). Apart from in-vitro potency against the target, physiochemical properties and pharmacokinetic properties play an imperative role in the process of drug discovery. We have identified novel nitroimidazole derivatives with potential activity against mycobacterium tuberculosis. One lead candidates, MCD-017, which showed potent activity against H37Rv strain (MIC=0.5µg/ml) and was further evaluated in the process of drug development. Methods: Basic physicochemical parameters like solubility and lipophilicity (LogP) were evaluated. Thermodynamic solubility was determined in PBS buffer (pH 7.4) using LC/MS-MS. The partition coefficient (Log P) of the compound was determined between octanol and phosphate buffered saline (PBS at pH 7.4) at 25°C by the microscale shake flask method. The compound followed Lipinski’s rule of five, which is predictive of good oral bioavailability and was further evaluated for metabolic stability. In-vitro metabolic stability was determined in rat liver microsomes. The hepatotoxicity of the compound was also determined in HepG2 cell line. In vivo pharmacokinetic profile of the compound after oral dosing was also obtained using balb/c mice. Results: The compound exhibited favorable solubility and lipophilicity. The physical and chemical properties of the compound were made use of as the first determination of drug-like properties. The compound obeyed Lipinski’s rule of five, with molecular weight < 500, number of hydrogen bond donors (HBD) < 5 and number of hydrogen bond acceptors(HBA) not more then 10. The log P of the compound was less than 5 and therefore the compound is predictive of exhibiting good absorption and permeation. Pooled rat liver microsomes were prepared from rat liver homogenate for measuring the metabolic stability. 99% of the compound was not metabolized and remained intact. The compound did not exhibit cytoxicity in hepG2 cells upto 40 µg/ml. The compound revealed good pharmacokinetic profile at a dose of 5mg/kg administered orally with a half life (t1/2) of 1.15 hours, Cmax of 642ng/ml, clearance of 4.84 ml/min/kg and a volume of distribution of 8.05 l/kg. Conclusion : The emergence of multi drug resistance (MDR) and extensively drug resistant (XDR) Tuberculosis emphasize the requirement of novel drugs active against tuberculosis. Thus, the need to evaluate physicochemical and pharmacokinetic properties in the early stages of drug discovery is required to reduce the attrition associated with poor drug exposure. In summary, it can be concluded that MCD-017 may be considered a good candidate for further preclinical and clinical evaluations.

Keywords: mycobacterium tuberculosis, pharmacokinetics, physicochemical properties, hepatotoxicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 441

Authors: Marlin Mubarak

Abstract:

Background: Endometriosis is a complex disabling disease affecting young females in the reproductive period mainly. The aim of this project is to generate a diagnostic model to predict severity and stage of endometriosis prior to Laparoscopic surgery. This will help to improve the pre-operative diagnostic accuracy of stage 3 & 4 endometriosis and as a result, refer relevant women to a specialist centre for complex Laparoscopic surgery. The model is based on the British Society of Gynaecological Endoscopy (BSGE) pain questionnaire, clinical examination and ultrasound scan. Design: This is a prospective, observational, study, in which women completed the BSGE pain questionnaire, a BSGE requirement. Also, as part of the routine preoperative assessment patient had a routine ultrasound scan and when recto-vaginal and deep infiltrating endometriosis was suspected an MRI was performed. Setting: Luton & Dunstable University Hospital. Patients: Symptomatic women (n = 56) scheduled for laparoscopy due to pelvic pain. The age ranged between 17 – 52 years of age (mean 33.8 years, SD 8.7 years). Interventions: None outside the recognised and established endometriosis centre protocol set up by BSGE. Main Outcome Measure(s): Sensitivity and specificity of endometriosis diagnosis predicted by symptoms based on BSGE pain questionnaire, clinical examinations and imaging. Findings: The prevalence of diagnosed endometriosis was calculated to be 76.8% and the prevalence of advanced stage was 55.4%. Deep infiltrating endometriosis in various locations was diagnosed in 32/56 women (57.1%) and some had DIE involving several locations. Logistic regression analysis was performed on 36 clinical variables to create a simple clinical prediction model. After creating the scoring system using variables with P < 0.05, the model was applied to the whole dataset. The sensitivity was 83.87% and specificity 96%. The positive likelihood ratio was 20.97 and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.17, indicating that the model has a good predictive value and could be useful in predicting advanced stage endometriosis. Conclusions: This is a hypothesis-generating project with one operator, but future proposed research would provide validation of the model and establish its usefulness in the general setting. Predictive tools based on such model could help organise the appropriate investigation in clinical practice, reduce risks associated with surgery and improve outcome. It could be of value for future research to standardise the assessment of women presenting with pelvic pain. The model needs further testing in a general setting to assess if the initial results are reproducible.

Keywords: deep endometriosis, endometriosis, minimally invasive, MRI, ultrasound.

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Nasser Y. Mahamoud, Pierre Dehombreux, Hassan E. Robleh

Abstract:

Industrial companies may be confronted with questions about their choice of maintenance policy. This choice must be guided by several numbers of decision criteria or objectives related to their production or service activities but also to their level of development and their investment prospects. A decision-support methodology to choose a maintenance policy (corrective, systematic or conditional preventive, predictive, opportunistic or not) is proposed to facilitate this choice using the main categories of the most important decision criteria. The different steps of this methodology are illustrated using theoretical case: identification of the different maintenance alternatives, determining the structure of the most important categories of the decision criteria, assessing the different maintenance policies on to the criteria by using an ordinal preference relation, and finally ranking the different maintenance policies.

Keywords: maintenance policy, decision criteria, decision-making process, AHP

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: Lely A. Luengas, Pedro R. Vizcaya, Giovanni Sánchez

Abstract:

In this paper, a methodology is presented to obtain the Static Alignment Model for any transtibial amputee person. The proposed methodology starts from experimental data collected on the Hospital Militar Central, Bogotá, Colombia. The effects of transtibial prosthesis malalignment on amputees were measured in terms of joint angles, center of pressure (COP) and weight distribution. Some statistical tools are used to obtain the model parameters. Mathematical predictive models of prosthetic alignment were created. The proposed models are validated in amputees and finding promising results for the prosthesis Static Alignment. Static alignment process is unique to each subject; nevertheless the proposed methodology can be used in each transtibial amputee.

Keywords: information theory, prediction model, prosthetic alignment, transtibial prosthesis

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Saahith M. S., Sivakami R.

Abstract:

In the realm of football analytics, particularly focusing on predicting football player performance, the ability to forecast player success accurately is of paramount importance for teams, managers, and fans. This study introduces an elaborate examination of predicting football player performance through the integration of data visualization methods and machine learning algorithms. The research entails the compilation of an extensive dataset comprising player attributes, conducting data preprocessing, feature selection, model selection, and model training to construct predictive models. The analysis within this study will involve delving into feature significance using methodologies like Select Best and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to pinpoint pertinent attributes for predicting player performance. Various machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest, Decision Tree, Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), will be explored to develop predictive models. The evaluation of each model's performance utilizing metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-squared will be executed to gauge their efficacy in predicting player performance. Furthermore, this investigation will encompass a top player analysis to recognize the top-performing players based on the anticipated overall performance scores. Nationality analysis will entail scrutinizing the player distribution based on nationality and investigating potential correlations between nationality and player performance. Positional analysis will concentrate on examining the player distribution across various positions and assessing the average performance of players in each position. Age analysis will evaluate the influence of age on player performance and identify any discernible trends or patterns associated with player age groups. The primary objective is to predict a football player's overall performance accurately based on their individual attributes, leveraging data-driven insights to enrich the comprehension of player success on the field. By amalgamating data visualization and machine learning methodologies, the aim is to furnish valuable tools for teams, managers, and fans to effectively analyze and forecast player performance. This research contributes to the progression of sports analytics by showcasing the potential of machine learning in predicting football player performance and offering actionable insights for diverse stakeholders in the football industry.

Keywords: football analytics, player performance prediction, data visualization, machine learning algorithms, random forest, decision tree, linear regression, support vector regression, artificial neural networks, model evaluation, top player analysis, nationality analysis, positional analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 24

Authors: Mkhinini Maher, Knani Jilani

Abstract:

We present in this work the performances of a mobile omnidirectional robot through evaluating its management of the redundancy of actuation. Thus we come to the predictive control implemented. The distribution of the wringer on the robot actions, through the inverse pseudo of Moore-Penrose, corresponds to a -geometric- distribution of efforts. We will show that the load on vehicle wheels would not be equi-distributed in terms of wheels configuration and of robot movement. Thus, the threshold of sliding is not the same for the three wheels of the vehicle. We suggest exploiting the redundancy of actuation to reduce the risk of wheels sliding and to ameliorate, thereby, its accuracy of displacement. This kind of approach was the subject of study for the legged robots.

Keywords: mobile robot, actuation, redundancy, omnidirectional, inverse pseudo moore-penrose, reductive control

Procedia PDF Downloads 491

Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

Abstract:

In recent years, climate change has become a major threat and has been widely documented in the geographic distribution of many plant species. However, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of ecologically vulnerable medicinal species remain largely unknown. The identification of a suitable habitat for a species under climate change scenario is a significant step towards the mitigation of biodiversity decline. The study, therefore, aims to predict the impact of current, and future climatic scenarios on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica across the northern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. The future projections were made for the year 2050 and 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) using 56 species occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic predictors from the BCC-CSM1.1 model of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 5th assessment. The bioclimatic variables were minimised to a smaller number of variables after a multicollinearity test, and their contributions were assessed using jackknife test. The AUC value of 0.956 ± 0.023 indicates that the model performs with excellent accuracy. The study identified that temperature seasonality (39.5 ± 3.1%), isothermality (19.2 ± 1.6%), and annual precipitation (12.7 ± 1.7%) would be the major influencing variables in the current and future distribution. The model predicted 10.5% (19318.7 sq. km) of the study area as moderately to very highly suitable, while 82.60% (151904 sq. km) of the study area was identified as ‘unsuitable’ or ‘very low suitable’. Our predictions of climate change impact on habitat suitability suggest that there will be a drastic reduction in the suitability by 5.29% and 5.69% under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Finally, the results signify that the model might be an effective tool for biodiversity protection, ecosystem management, and species re-habitation planning under future climate change scenarios.

Keywords: Garcinia Indica, maximum entropy modelling, climate change, MaxEnt, Western Ghats, medicinal plants

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Ming-Hsiang Shih, Wen-Pei Sung, Shih-Heng Tung

Abstract:

Semi-active control system for structure under excitation of earthquake provides with the characteristics of being adaptable and requiring low energy. DSHD (Displacement Semi-Active Hydraulic Damper) was developed by our research team. Shake table test results of this DSHD installed in full scale test structure demonstrated that this device brought its energy-dissipating performance into full play for test structure under excitation of earthquake. The objective of this research is to develop a new AIC (Active Interaction Control Device) and apply shake table test to perform its dissipation of energy capability. This new proposed AIC is converting an improved DSHD (Displacement Semi-Active Hydraulic Damper) to AIC with the addition of an accumulator. The main concept of this energy-dissipating AIC is to apply the interaction function of affiliated structure (sub-structure) and protected structure (main structure) to transfer the input seismic force into sub-structure to reduce the structural deformation of main structure. This concept is tested using full-scale multi-degree of freedoms test structure, installed with this proposed AIC subjected to external forces of various magnitudes, for examining the shock absorption influence of predictive control, stiffness of sub-structure, synchronous control, non-synchronous control and insufficient control position. The test results confirm: (1) this developed device is capable of diminishing the structural displacement and acceleration response effectively; (2) the shock absorption of low precision of semi-active control method did twice as much seismic proof efficacy as that of passive control method; (3) active control method may not exert a negative influence of amplifying acceleration response of structure; (4) this AIC comes into being time-delay problem. It is the same problem of ordinary active control method. The proposed predictive control method can overcome this defect; (5) condition switch is an important characteristics of control type. The test results show that synchronism control is very easy to control and avoid stirring high frequency response. This laboratory results confirm that the device developed in this research is capable of applying the mutual interaction between the subordinate structure and the main structure to be protected is capable of transforming the quake energy applied to the main structure to the subordinate structure so that the objective of minimizing the deformation of main structural can be achieved.

Keywords: DSHD (Displacement Semi-Active Hydraulic Damper), AIC (Active Interaction Control Device), shake table test, full scale structure test, sub-structure, main-structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 504

Authors: Lokesh Harshe

Abstract:

The building construction sector is using 36% of global energy consumption with 39% of CO₂ emission. Professionals in the Built Environment Sector have long been aware of the industry’s contribution towards CO₂ emissions and are now moving towards more sustainable practices. As a result of this, many organizations have introduced rating systems to address the issue of global warming in the construction sector by ranking construction projects based on sustainability parameters. The pre-construction phase of any building project is the most essential time to make decisions for addressing the sustainability aspects. Traditionally, it is very difficult to collect data from different stakeholders and bring it together to form a decision based on factual data to perform sustainability analyses in the pre-construction phase. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is the solution where one single model is the result of the collaborative approach of BIM processes where all the information is shared, extracted, communicated, and stored on a single platform that everyone can access and make decisions based on real-time data. The focus of this research is on the Indian Green Rating System IGBC® with the objective of understanding IGBC® requirements and developing a framework to create the relationship between the rating processes and BIM. A Hypothetical (Architectural) model of a hostel building is developed using AutoCAD 2019 & Revit Arch. 2019, where the framework is applied to generate results on sustainability analysis using Green Building Studio (GBS) and Revit Add-ins. The results of any sustainability analysis are generated within a fraction of a minute, which is very quick in comparison with traditional sustainability analysis. This may save a considerable amount of time as well as cost. The future scope is to integrate Architectural, Structural, and MEP Models to perform accurate sustainability analyses with inputs from industry professionals working on real-life Green BIM projects.

Keywords: sustainability analyses, BIM, green rating systems, IGBC®, LEED

Procedia PDF Downloads 30

Authors: Marcel Meinhardt, Manfred Keuser, Thomas Braml

Abstract:

Cracking of reinforced concrete is a complex phenomenon induced by direct loads or restraints affecting reinforced concrete structures as soon as the tensile strength of the concrete is exceeded. Hence it is important to predict where cracks will be located and how they will propagate. The bond theory and the crack formulas in the actual design codes, for example, DIN EN 1992-1-1, are all based on the assumption that the reinforcement bars are embedded in homogeneous concrete without taking into account the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress situation. However, it can often be observed that real structures such as walls, slabs or beams show a crack spacing that is orientated to the transverse reinforcement bars or to the stirrups. In most Finite Element Analysis studies, the smeared crack approach is used for crack prediction. The disadvantage of this model is that the typical strain localization of a crack on element level can’t be seen. The crack propagation in concrete is a discontinuous process characterized by different factors such as the initial random distribution of defects or the scatter of material properties. Such behavior presupposes the elaboration of adequate models and methods of simulation because traditional mechanical approaches deal mainly with average material parameters. This paper concerned with the modelling of the initiation and the propagation of cracks in reinforced concrete structures considering the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress distribution in reinforced concrete (R/C) beams/plates in bending action. Therefore, a parameter study was carried out to investigate: (I) the influence of the transversal reinforcement to the stress distribution in concrete in bending mode and (II) the crack initiation in dependence of the diameter and distance of the transversal reinforcement to each other. The numerical investigations on the crack initiation and propagation were carried out with a 2D reinforced concrete structure subjected to quasi static loading and given boundary conditions. To model the uncertainty in the tensile strength of concrete in the Finite Element Analysis correlated normally and lognormally distributed random filed with different correlation lengths were generated. The paper also presents and discuss different methods to generate random fields, e.g. the Covariance Matrix Decomposition Method. For all computations, a plastic constitutive law with softening was used to model the crack initiation and the damage of the concrete in tension. It was found that the distributions of crack spacing and crack widths are highly dependent of the used random field. These distributions are validated to experimental studies on R/C panels which were carried out at the Laboratory for Structural Engineering at the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich. Also, a recommendation for parameters of the random field for realistic modelling the uncertainty of the tensile strength is given. The aim of this research was to show a method in which the localization of strains and cracks as well as the influence of transverse reinforcement on the crack initiation and propagation in Finite Element Analysis can be seen.

Keywords: crack initiation, crack modelling, crack propagation, cracks, numerical simulation, random fields, reinforced concrete, stochastic

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

Abstract:

Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Arnold M. Brener, Lesbek Tashimov, Ablakim S. Muratov

Abstract:

The paper deals with the special model for coagulation kernels which represents new control parameters in the Smoluchowski equation for binary aggregation. On the base of the model the new approach to evaluating aggregative stability of disperse systems has been submitted. With the help of this approach the simple estimates for aggregative stability of various types of hydrophilic nano-suspensions have been obtained.

Keywords: aggregative stability, coagulation kernels, disperse systems, mathematical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 296

Authors: Amiel Satvedi, Richard Pyne

Abstract:

Injuries in professional sports occur on a regular basis. Some may be minor, while others can cause huge impact on a player's career and earning potential. In soccer, there is a high risk of players picking up injuries during game time. This research work seeks to help soccer players reduce the risk of getting injured by predicting the likelihood of injury while playing in the near future and then providing recommendations for intervention. The injury prediction tool will use a soccer player's number of minutes played on the field, number of appearances, distance covered and performance data for the current and previous seasons as variables to conduct statistical analysis and provide injury predictive results using a machine learning linear regression model.

Keywords: injury predictor, soccer injury prevention, machine learning in soccer, big data in soccer

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Aimen Saleh

Abstract:

The Silurian Lower Acacus sandstone is one of the main reservoirs in North West Libya. Our aim in this study is to grasp a robust understanding of the hydrocarbon potential and distribution in the area. To date, the depositional environment of the Lower Acacus reservoir still open to discussion and contradiction. Henceforth, building three dimensional (3D) property modelling is one way to support the analysis and description of the reservoir, its properties and characterizations, so this will be of great value in this project. The 3D model integrates different data set, these incorporates well logs data, petrophysical reservoir properties and seismic data as well. The finalized depositional environment model of the Lower Acacus concludes that the area is located in a deltaic transitional depositional setting, which ranges from a wave dominated delta into tide dominated delta type. This interpretation carried out through a series of steps of model generation, core description and Formation Microresistivity Image tool (FMI) interpretation. After the analysis of the core data, the Lower Acacus layers shows a strong effect of tidal energy. Whereas these traces found imprinted in different types of sedimentary structures, for examples; presence of some crossbedding, such as herringbones structures, wavy and flaser cross beddings. In spite of recognition of some minor marine transgression events in the area, on the contrary, the coarsening upward cycles of sand and shale layers in the Lower Acacus demonstrate presence of a major regressive phase of the sea level. However, consequently, we produced a final package of this model in a complemented set of facies distribution, porosity and oil presence. And also it shows the record of the petroleum system, and the procedure of Hydrocarbon migration and accumulation. Finally, this model suggests that the area can be outlined into three main segments of hydrocarbon potential, which can be a textbook guide for future exploration and production strategies in the area.

Keywords: Acacus, Ghadames , Libya, Silurian

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Peng Liu, Chyng Wen Tee, Xiaofei Xu

Abstract:

This paper integrates machine learning forecasting techniques into the multi-period portfolio optimization framework, enabling dynamic asset allocation based on multiple future periods. We explore both theoretical foundations and practical applications, employing diverse machine learning models for return forecasting. This comprehensive guide demonstrates the superiority of multi-period optimization over single-period approaches, particularly in risk mitigation through strategic rebalancing and enhanced market trend forecasting. Our goal is to promote wider adoption of multi-period optimization, providing insights that can significantly enhance the decision-making capabilities of practitioners and researchers alike.

Keywords: multi-period portfolio optimization, look-ahead constrained optimization, machine learning, sequential decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 21

Authors: Hossein Afzali

Abstract:

Increasingly, decision analytic models are used to inform decisions about whether or not to publicly fund new health technologies. It is well noted that the accuracy of model predictions is strongly influenced by the appropriateness of model structuring. However, there is relatively inadequate methodological guidance surrounding this issue in guidelines developed by national funding bodies such as the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) and The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK. This presentation aims to discuss issues around model structuring within decision making with a focus on (1) the need for a transparent and evidence-based model structuring process to inform the most appropriate set of structural aspects as the base case analysis; (2) the need to characterise structural uncertainty (If there exist alternative plausible structural assumptions (or judgements), there is a need to appropriately characterise the related structural uncertainty). The presentation will provide an opportunity to share ideas and experiences on how the guidelines developed by national funding bodies address the above issues and identify areas for further improvements. First, a review and analysis of the literature and guidelines developed by PBAC and NICE will be provided. Then, it will be discussed how the issues around model structuring (including structural uncertainty) are not handled and justified in a systematic way within the decision-making process, its potential impact on the quality of public funding decisions, and how it should be presented in submissions to national funding bodies. This presentation represents a contribution to the good modelling practice within the decision-making process. Although the presentation focuses on the PBAC and NICE guidelines, the discussion can be applied more widely to many other national funding bodies that use economic evaluation to inform funding decisions but do not transparently address model structuring issues e.g. the Medical Services Advisory Committee (MSAC) in Australia or the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health.

Keywords: decision-making process, economic evaluation, good modelling practice, structural uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Roza Dzierzak, Waldemar Wojcik, Piotr Kacejko

Abstract:

Analysis of the texture of medical images consists of determining the parameters and characteristics of the examined tissue. The main goal is to assign the analyzed area to one of two basic groups: as a healthy tissue or a tissue with pathological changes. The CT images of the thoracic lumbar spine from 15 healthy patients and 15 with confirmed osteoporosis were used for the analysis. As a result, 120 samples with dimensions of 50x50 pixels were obtained. The set of features has been obtained based on the histogram, gradient, run-length matrix, co-occurrence matrix, autoregressive model, and Haar wavelet. As a result of the image analysis, 290 descriptors of textural features were obtained. The dimension of the space of features was reduced by the use of three selection methods: Fisher coefficient (FC), mutual information (MI), minimization of the classification error probability and average correlation coefficients between the chosen features minimization of classification error probability (POE) and average correlation coefficients (ACC). Each of them returned ten features occupying the initial place in the ranking devised according to its own coefficient. As a result of the Fisher coefficient and mutual information selections, the same features arranged in a different order were obtained. In both rankings, the 50% percentile (Perc.50%) was found in the first place. The next selected features come from the co-occurrence matrix. The sets of features selected in the selection process were evaluated using six classification tree methods. These were: decision stump (DS), Hoeffding tree (HT), logistic model trees (LMT), random forest (RF), random tree (RT) and reduced error pruning tree (REPT). In order to assess the accuracy of classifiers, the following parameters were used: overall classification accuracy (ACC), true positive rate (TPR, classification sensitivity), true negative rate (TNR, classification specificity), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). Taking into account the classification results, it should be stated that the best results were obtained for the Hoeffding tree and logistic model trees classifiers, using the set of features selected by the POE + ACC method. In the case of the Hoeffding tree classifier, the highest values of three parameters were obtained: ACC = 90%, TPR = 93.3% and PPV = 93.3%. Additionally, the values of the other two parameters, i.e., TNR = 86.7% and NPV = 86.6% were close to the maximum values obtained for the LMT classifier. In the case of logistic model trees classifier, the same ACC value was obtained ACC=90% and the highest values for TNR=88.3% and NPV= 88.3%. The values of the other two parameters remained at a level close to the highest TPR = 91.7% and PPV = 91.6%. The results obtained in the experiment show that the use of classification trees is an effective method of classification of texture features. This allows identifying the conditions of the spongy tissue for healthy cases and those with the porosis.

Keywords: classification, feature selection, texture analysis, tree algorithms

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Duchduen Bhanthumnavin

Abstract:

One of the most important characteristics to increase competitive ability in undergraduate students after post COVID-19 era is goal setting and self-control. This correlational study aimes at investigating the influence of psycho-social antecedents on goal setting and self-control in 550 Thai university students. Results from multiple regression analysis revealed that the important predictors of this characteristic were reasoning ability, psychological immunity, attitudes toward competition, core self-evaluation, and family nurture, which yielded 54.28 predictive percentage in the total sample. Moreover, the analysis identified three at-risk groups, namely, male students, low GPA students, and students with siblings. Discussion and implications in general and for specific purposes for the at-risk groups were offered.

Keywords: antecedents, plan and self-control, predictors, university students

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Leon Mishnaevsky Jr., Gaoming Dai

Abstract:

3D numerical simulations of fatigue damage of multiscale fiber reinforced polymer composites with secondary nanoclay reinforcement are carried out. Macro-micro FE models of the multiscale composites are generated automatically using Python based software. The effect of the nanoclay reinforcement (localized in the fiber/matrix interface (fiber sizing) and distributed throughout the matrix) on the crack path, damage mechanisms and fatigue behavior is investigated in numerical experiments.

Keywords: computational mechanics, fatigue, nanocomposites, composites

Procedia PDF Downloads 588

Authors: Khachen Kongpakwattana, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk

Abstract:

Background: Decision-analytic models for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have been advanced to discrete-event simulation (DES), in which individual-level modelling of disease progression across continuous severity spectra and incorporation of key parameters such as treatment persistence into the model become feasible. This study aimed to apply the DES to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment for AD in Thailand. Methods: A dataset of Thai patients with AD, representing unique demographic and clinical characteristics, was bootstrapped to generate a baseline cohort of patients. Each patient was cloned and assigned to donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmine, memantine or no treatment. Throughout the simulation period, the model randomly assigned each patient to discrete events including hospital visits, treatment discontinuation and death. Correlated changes in cognitive and behavioral status over time were developed using patient-level data. Treatment effects were obtained from the most recent network meta-analysis. Treatment persistence, mortality and predictive equations for functional status, costs (Thai baht (THB) in 2017) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were derived from country-specific real-world data. The time horizon was 10 years, with a discount rate of 3% per annum. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated based on the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB/QALY gained (4,994 US$/QALY gained) in Thailand. Results: Under a societal perspective, only was the prescription of donepezil to AD patients with all disease-severity levels found to be cost-effective. Compared to untreated patients, although the patients receiving donepezil incurred a discounted additional costs of 2,161 THB, they experienced a discounted gain in QALY of 0.021, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 138,524 THB/QALY (4,062 US$/QALY). Besides, providing early treatment with donepezil to mild AD patients further reduced the ICER to 61,652 THB/QALY (1,808 US$/QALY). However, the dominance of donepezil appeared to wane when delayed treatment was given to a subgroup of moderate and severe AD patients [ICER: 284,388 THB/QALY (8,340 US$/QALY)]. Introduction of a treatment stopping rule when the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) score goes below 10 to a mild AD cohort did not deteriorate the cost-effectiveness of donepezil at the current treatment persistence level. On the other hand, none of the AD medications was cost-effective when being considered under a healthcare perspective. Conclusions: The DES greatly enhances real-world representativeness of decision-analytic models for AD. Under a societal perspective, treatment with donepezil improves patient’s quality of life and is considered cost-effective when used to treat AD patients with all disease-severity levels in Thailand. The optimal treatment benefits are observed when donepezil is prescribed since the early course of AD. With healthcare budget constraints in Thailand, the implementation of donepezil coverage may be most likely possible when being considered starting with mild AD patients, along with the stopping rule introduced.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, cost-effectiveness analysis, discrete event simulation, health technology assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Harold Vásquez, Cesar Hernández, Ingrid Páez

Abstract:

This paper approach cognitive radio technic and applied pure proactive handoff Model to decrease interference between PU and SU and comparing it with reactive handoff model. Through the study and analysis of multivariate models SAW and TOPSIS join to 3 dynamic prediction techniques AR, MA ,and ARMA. To evaluate the best model is taken four metrics: number failed handoff, number handoff, number predictions, and number interference. The result presented the advantages using this type of pure proactive models to predict changes in the PU according to the selected channel and reduce interference. The model showed better performance was TOPSIS-MA, although TOPSIS-AR had a higher predictive ability this was not reflected in the interference reduction.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum handoff, decision making, time series, wireless networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 466

Authors: Majid Aldalbahi

Abstract:

In 2009, over 3.4 billion people in the world resided in urban areas as a result of rapid urban growth. This figure is estimated to increase to 6.5 billion by 2050. This urban growth phenomenon has raised challenges for many countries in both the developing and developed worlds. Urban growth is a complicated process involving the spatiotemporal changes of all socio-economic and physical components at different scales. The socio-economic components of urban growth are related to urban population growth and economic growth, while physical components of urban growth and economic growth are related to spatial expansion, land cover change and land use change which are the focus of this research. The interactions between these components are complex and no-linear. Several factors and forces cause these complex interactions including transportation and communication, internal and international migrations, public policies, high natural growth rates of urban populations and public policies. Urban growth has positive and negative consequences. The positive effects relates to planned and orderly urban growth, while negative effects relate to unplanned and scattered growth, which is called sprawl. Although urban growth is considered as necessary for sustainable urbanization, uncontrolled and rapid growth cause various problems including consumption of precious rural land resources at urban fringe, landscape alteration, traffic congestion, infrastructure pressure, and neighborhood conflicts. Traditional urban planning approaches in fast growing cities cannot accommodate the negative consequences of rapid urban growth. Microsimulation programme, and modelling techniques are effective means to provide new urban development, management and planning methods and approaches. This paper aims to use these techniques to understand and analyse the complex interactions for the case study of Riyadh city, a fast growing city in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: policy implications, urban planning, traffic congestion, urban growth, Suadi Arabia, Riyadh

Procedia PDF Downloads 466