Search results for: mean time to failure

Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

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This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model

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Authors: Swajeeth Panchangam, Arun Rajendran, Swarnim Gupta, Ahmed Zeouita

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Semiconductor processing chambers tend to operate in controlled but aggressive operating conditions (chemistry, plasma, high temperature etc.) Owing to this, the design of this equipment requires developing robust and reliable hardware and software. Any equipment downtime due to reliability issues can have cost implications both for customers in terms of tool downtime (reduced throughput) and for equipment manufacturers in terms of high warranty costs and customer trust deficit. A thorough reliability assessment of critical parts and a plan for preventive maintenance/replacement schedules need to be done before tool shipment. This helps to save significant warranty costs and tool downtimes in the field. However, designing a proper reliability test plan to accurately demonstrate reliability targets with proper sample size and test duration is quite challenging. This is mainly because components can fail in different failure modes that fit into different Weibull beta value distributions. Without apriori Weibull beta of a failure mode under consideration, it always leads to over/under utilization of resources, which eventually end up in false positives or false negatives estimates. This paper proposes a methodology to design a reliability test plan with optimal model size/duration/both (independent of apriori Weibull beta). This methodology can be used in demonstration tests and can be extended to accelerated life tests to further decrease sample size/test duration.

Keywords: reliability, stochastics, preventive maintenance

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Authors: Ahlam Inayatullah Badrul Munir, M. Husaini A. Rahman, Mohd Sukri Hassan

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Real-time PCR is a molecular biology technique that is currently being widely used for halal services to differentiating between porcine and bovine DNA. The useful of technique become very important for student or workers (who works in the laboratory) to learn how the technique could be run smoothly without fail. Same concept with conventional PCR, real-time PCR also needed DNA template, primer, enzyme polymerase, dNTP, and buffer. The difference is in real-time PCR, have additional component namely fluorescent dye. The most common use of fluorescent dye in real-time PCR is SYBR green. The purpose of this study was to find out how sensitive, specific and efficient real-time PCR technique was combined with SYBR green method and specific primers of CYT b. The results showed that real-time PCR technique using SYBR Green, capable of detecting porcine and bovine DNA concentrations up to 0.0001 µl/ng. The level of efficiency for both types of DNA was 91% (90-110). Not only that in specific primer CYT b bovine primer could detect only bovine DNA, and porcine primer could detect only porcine primer. So, from the study could be concluded that real-time PCR technique that was combined with specific primer CYT b and SYBR green method, was sensitive, specific and efficient to detect porcine and bovine DNA.

Keywords: sensitivity, specificity, efficiency, real-time PCR, SYBR green, Cytochrome b, porcine DNA, bovine DNA

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Authors: Seyed Reza Aghili, Tahereh Shokohi, Shirin Sadat Hashemi Fesharaki, Mohammad Ali Boroumand, Bahar Salmanian

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Introduction: Intravenous catheter-associated fungal infection as nosocomial infection continue to be a deep problem among hospitalized patients, decreasing quality of life and adding healthcare costs. The capacity of catheters in the spread of candidemia in heart failure patients is obvious. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and genetic identification of Candida species in heart disorder patients. Material and Methods: This study was conducted in Tehran Hospital of Cardiology Center (Tehran, Iran, 2014) during 1.5 years on the patients hospitalized for at least 7 days and who had central or peripheral vein catheter. Culture of catheters, blood and skin of the location of catheter insertion were applied for detecting Candida colonies in 223 patients. Identification of Candida species was made on the basis of a combination of various phenotypic methods and confirmed by sequencing the ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 region amplified from the genomic DNA using PCR and the NCBI BLAST. Results: Of the 223 patients samples tested, we identified totally 15 Candida isolates obtained from 9 (4.04%) catheter cultures, 3 (1.35%) blood cultures and 2 (0.90%) skin cultures of the catheter insertion areas. On the base of ITS region sequencing, out of nine Candida isolates from catheter, 5(55.6%) C. albicans, 2(22.2%) C. glabrata, 1(11.1%) C. membranifiaciens and 1 (11.1%) C. tropicalis were identified. Among three Candida isolates from blood culture, C. tropicalis, C. carpophila and C. membranifiaciens were identified. Non-candida yeast isolated from one blood culture was Cryptococcus albidus. One case of C. glabrata and one case of Candida albicans were isolated from skin culture of the catheter insertion areas in patients with positive catheter culture. In these patients, ITS region of rDNA sequence showed a similarity between Candida isolated from the skin and catheter. However, the blood samples of these patients were negative for fungal growth. We report two cases of catheter-related candidemia caused by C. membranifiaciens and C. tropicalis on the base of genetic similarity of species isolated from blood and catheter which were treated successfully with intravenous fluconazole and catheter removal. In phenotypic identification methods, we could only identify C. albicans and C. tropicalis and other yeast isolates were diagnosed as Candida sp. Discussion: Although more than 200 species of Candida have been identified, only a few cause diseases in humans. There is some evidence that non-albicans infections are increasing. Many risk factors, including prior antibiotic therapy, use of a central venous catheter, surgery, and parenteral nutrition are considered to be associated with candidemia in hospitalized heart failure patients. Identifying the route of infection in candidemia is difficult. Non-albicans candida as the cause of candidemia is increasing dramatically. By using conventional method, many non-albicans isolates remain unidentified. So, using more sensitive and specific molecular genetic sequencing to clarify the aspects of epidemiology of the unknown candida species infections is essential. The positive blood and catheter cultures for candida isolates and high percentage of similarity of their ITS region of rDNA sequence in these two patients confirmed the diagnosis of intravenous catheter-associated candidemia.

Keywords: catheter-associated infections, heart failure patient, molecular genetic sequencing, ITS region of rDNA, Candidemia

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Authors: Ibraheem A. K. Mahameed

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The aim of this study is to identify the risks affecting time performance of building construction projects in the West Bank in Palestine from contractors’ viewpoint. 38 risks that might affect time performance of building construction projects were defined through a detailed literature review. These risks have been classified into 6 groups: project, managerial, consultant, financial, external, and construction items. A questionnaire survey was performed to rank the considered risks in terms of severity and frequency. The analysis of the survey indicated that the top five risks affecting time performance of building construction projects in Palestine are: award project to the lowest price, political situation, poor communication and coordination between construction parties, change orders, and financial status of contractor.

Keywords: delay, time performance, construction, building

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Authors: Sidra Suleman, Maliha Suleman, Stephen Brindley

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Oral rehabilitation of head and neck cancer patients plays a crucial role in the quality of life for such individuals post-treatment. Placement of dental implants or implant-retained prostheses can help restore oral function and aesthetics, which is often compromised following surgery. Conventional prosthodontic techniques can be insufficient in rehabilitating such patients due to their altered anatomy and reduced oral competence. Hence, there is a strong clinical need for the placement of dental implants. With an increasing incidence of head and neck cancer patients, the demand for such treatment is rising. Aim: The aim of the study was to determine the survival rate of dental implants in head and neck cancer patients placed at the Restorative and Maxillofacial Department, Royal Stoke University Hospital (RSUH), United Kingdom. Methodology: All patients who received dental implants between January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2020 were identified. Patients were excluded based on three criteria: 1) non-head and neck cancer patients, 2) no outpatient follow-up post-implant placement 3) provision of non-dental implants. Scanned paper notes and electronic records were extracted and analyzed. Implant survival was defined as fixtures that had remained in-situ / not required removal. Sample: Overall, 61 individuals were recruited from the 143 patients identified. The mean age was 64.9 years, with a range of 35 – 89 years. The sample included 37 (60.7%) males and 24 (39.3%) females. In total, 211 implants were placed, of which 40 (19.0%) were in the maxilla, 152 (72.0%) in the mandible and 19 (9.0%) in autogenous bone graft sites. Histologically 57 (93.4%) patients had squamous cell carcinoma, with 43 (70.5%) patients having either stage IVA or IVB disease. As part of treatment, 42 (68.9%) patients received radiotherapy, which was carried out post-operatively for 29 (69.0%) cases. Whereas 21 (34.4%) patients underwent chemotherapy, 13 (61.9%) of which were post-operative. The Median follow-up period was 21.9 months with a range from 0.9 – 91.4 months. During the study, 23 (37.7%) patients died and their data was censored beyond the date of death. Results: In total, four patients who had received radiotherapy had one implant failure each. Two mandibular implants failed secondary to osteoradionecrosis, and two maxillary implants did not survive as a result of failure to osseointegrate. The overall implant survival rates were 99.1% at three years and 98.1% at both 5 and 7 years. Conclusions: Although this data shows that implant failure rates are low, it highlights the difficulty in predicting which patients will be affected. Future studies involving larger cohorts are warranted to further analyze factors affecting outcomes.

Keywords: oncology, dental implants, survival, restorative

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Authors: Zahra Heydari

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Introduction: One of the major clinical issues is acute renal failure, which is caused by ischemia-reperfusion of the kidney and is associated with high mortality. Despite advances in this area, important issues such as tissue necrosis, cell apoptosis, and so on in damaged tissue are suggestive for more researches and study on this subject. Objective: Evaluation of the potential utility of Ezetimibe in reducing injuries and cell death induced by kidney ischemia/ reperfusion through inducing expression changes of different cellular pathways in adult Sprague-Dawley rats. Materials and methods: Forty rats weighing 180-200g were divided into 4 groups. For this purpose, the first right kidneys of the rats were removed during surgery. After 20 days, the left renal artery was closed with a soft clamp and reperfusion was performed. After 24 hours, blood samples were collected and sent to the laboratory with kidneys to measure bax and bcl-2 by Western blotting and histopathological tests. Results: Quantitative damage reviews of Kidney tissue indicates damage Acute and severe tubular lesions were observed in the ischemia group. Also, the amount of injury was significantly reduced in the treatment group. There was also a significant difference between the ischemia and sham groups. In general, the results show that a single dose of 1.2 mg/kg of ezetimibe can reduce the bax/ bcl-2 ratio compared to the ischemia group. In general, the results showed Ezetimibe is effective in reducing cell damage and death due to ischemia/ reperfusion after renal ischemia through changes in the expression of various cellular pathways in rats.

Keywords: acute renal failure, renal ischemia-reperfusion injury, ezetimibe, apoptosis

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Authors: Homa Hedayat

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Public spaces have been a central concern of urban planners for centuries but have been neglected for a long time. In the modernist planning, the focus has been on the requirements of cars rather than the needs and expectations of pedestrians, and therefore, cities have lost many qualities. Urban public space is a space within the city area which is accessible to all people and is the ground for their activity. People’s public life occurs in urban public spaces in a complex set of forms and functions. These spaces must facilitate diverse behavior, uses, and activities such as shopping, walking, conversation, entertainment, relaxation or even passing the time during festivities and events. One of the public spaces is the surrounding space of public transportation stations. Subway stations, although potentially encompass many different groups of people accommodate few social interactions. Making the surrounding areas of subway stations pedestrian-oriented, potentially increases the socialization capacity. The Sadeghieh Subway Station can be considered as the most important subway station in Tehran, which on the one hand is the rail port of Tehran's western entrance, and on the other is the port for railway journeys inside the city. The main concern of this study is to assess the success or failure of the interventions made by the municipality for changing the surrounding area of the Sadeghieh Subway Station into a pedestrian-oriented space and examine the amount of the area's improvement into a desirable space. The method used in this study is surveying, in which the data were collected using a questionnaire and interview. The study's population is all people who use Sadeghieh Subway, and the sample size for the study was 140 subjects. Using parametric one-sample t-test, we found improvement in factors such as transportation, security, pedestrian infrastructure, vitality and climate comfort. However, there was no improvement in mix use, recreational activity, readability.

Keywords: public space, public transportation stations, pedestrian-oriented space, socialization

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Authors: M. Dabirinezhad, M. Bayat Pour, A. Dabirinejad

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Recognition of the color spectrum of the teeth plays a significant role in the dental laboratories to produce dentures. Since there are various types and colours of teeth for each patient, there is a need to specify the exact and the most suitable colour to produce a denture. Usually, dentists utilize pallets to identify the color that suits a patient based on the color of the adjacent teeth. Consistent with this, there can be human errors by dentists to recognize the optimum colour for the patient, and it can be annoying for the patient. According to the statistics, there are some claims from the patients that they are not satisfied by the colour of their dentures after the installation of the denture in their mouths. This problem emanates from the lack of sufficient accuracy during the colour recognition process of denture production. The colour recognition pen (CRP) is a technology to distinguish the colour spectrum of the intended teeth with the highest accuracy. CRP is equipped with a sensor that is capable to read and analyse a wide range of spectrums. It is also connected to a database that contains all the spectrum ranges, which exist in the market. The database is editable and updatable based on market requirements. Another advantage of this invention can be mentioned as saving time for the patients since there is no need to redo the denture production in case of failure on the first try.

Keywords: colour recognition pen, colour spectrum, dental laboratory, denture

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Authors: P. Fucik, J. Vymazal, M. Seres

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Pollution from agricultural drainage is a severe issue for water quality, and it is a major reason for the failure in accomplishment of 'good chemical status' according to Water Framework Directive, especially due to high nitrogen and pesticide burden of receiving waters. Constructed wetlands were proposed as a suitable measure for removal of nitrogen from agricultural drainage in the early 1990s. Until now, the vast majority of constructed wetlands designed to treat tile drainage were free-surface constructed wetlands. In 2018, three small experimental constructed wetlands with horizontal subsurface flow were built in Czech Highlands to treat tile drainage from 15.73 ha watershed. The wetlands have a surface area of 79, 90 and 98 m² and were planted with Phalaris arundinacea and Glyceria maxima in parallel bands. The substrate in the first two wetlands is gravel (4-8 mm) mixed with birch woodchips (10:1 volume ratio). In one of those wetlands, the water level is kept 10 cm above the surface; in the second one, the water is kept below the surface. The third wetland has 20 cm layer of birch woodchips on top of gravel. The drainage outlet, as well as wetland outlets, are equipped with automatic discharge-gauging devices, temperature probes, as well as automatic water samplers (Teledyne ISCO). During the monitored period (2018-2019), the flows were unexpectedly low due to a drop of the shallow ground water level, being the main source of water for the monitored drainage system, as experienced at many areas of the Czech Republic. The mean water residence time was analyzed in the wetlands (KBr), which was 16, 9 and 27 days, respectively. The mean total nitrogen concentration eliminations during one-year period were 61.2%, 62.6%, and 70.9% for wetlands 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The average load removals amounted to 0.516, 0.323, and 0.399 g N m-2 d-1 or 1885, 1180 and 1457 kg ha-1 yr-1 in wetlands 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The plant uptake and nitrogen sequestration in aboveground biomass contributed only marginally to the overall nitrogen removal. Among the three variants, the one with shallow water on the surface was revealed to be the most effective for removal of nitrogen from drainage water. In August 2019, herbicide Metazachlor was experimentally poured in time of 2 hours at drainage outlet in a concentration of 250 ug/l to find out the removal rates of the aforementioned wetlands. Water samples were taken the first day every six hours, and for the next nine days, every day one water sample was taken. The removal rates were as follows 94, 69 and 99%; when the most effective wetland was the one with the longest water residence time and the birch woodchip-layer on top of gravel.

Keywords: constructed wetlands, metazachlor, nitrogen, tile drainage

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Authors: Kwak, Hyo-Gyung, Gang, Han Gul

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In the context of an increasing need for reliability and safety in concrete structures under blast and impact loading condition, the behavior of concrete under high strain rate condition has been an important issue. Since concrete subjected to impact loading associated with high strain rate shows quite different material behavior from that in the static state, several material models are proposed and used to describe the high strain rate behavior under blast and impact loading. In the process of modelling, in advance, mesh dependency in the used finite element (FE) is the key problem because simulation results under high strain-rate condition are quite sensitive to applied FE mesh size. It means that the accuracy of simulation results may deeply be dependent on FE mesh size in simulations. This paper introduces an improved criterion which can minimize the mesh-dependency of simulation results on the basis of the fracture energy concept, and HJC (Holmquist Johnson Cook), CSC (Continuous Surface Cap) and K&C (Karagozian & Case) models are examined to trace their relative sensitivity to the used FE mesh size. To coincide with the purpose of the penetration test with a concrete plate under a projectile (bullet), the residual velocities of projectile after penetration are compared. The correlation studies between analytical results and the parametric studies associated with them show that the variation of residual velocity with the used FE mesh size is quite reduced by applying a unique failure strain value determined according to the proposed criterion.

Keywords: high strain rate concrete, penetration simulation, failure strain, mesh-dependency, fracture energy

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Authors: Letizia Maria Drammis, Maria Antonella Brandimonte

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The idea that people use space representations to think about time and number received support from several lines of research. However, how these representations develop in children and then shape space-time and space-number mappings is still a debated issue. In the present study, 40 children (20 pre-schoolers and 20 elementary-school children) performed 4 main tasks, which required the use of more concrete (non-symbolic) or more abstract (symbolic) space-time and space-number associations. In the non-symbolic conditions, children were required to order pictures of everyday-life events occurring in a specific temporal order (Temporal sequences) and of quantities varying in numerosity (Numerical sequences). In the symbolic conditions, they were asked to perform the typical time-to-position and number-to-position tasks by mapping time-related words and numbers onto lines. Results showed that children performed reliably better in the non-symbolic Time conditions than the symbolic Time conditions, independently of age, whereas only pre-schoolers performed worse in the Number-to-position task (symbolic) as compared to the Numerical sequence (non-symbolic) task. In addition, only older children mapped time-related words onto space following the typical left-right orientation, pre-schoolers’ performance being somewhat mixed. In contrast, mapping numbers onto space showed a clear left-right orientation, independently of age. Overall, these results indicate a cross-domain difference in the way younger and older children process time and number, with time-related tasks being more difficult than number-related tasks only when space-time tasks require symbolic representations.

Keywords: space-time associations, space-number associations, orientation, children

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Authors: Kyung-Suk Choi, Hyung-Joon Kim

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Modular structural systems are constructed using a method that they are assembled with prefabricated unit modular frames on-site. This provides a benefit that can significantly reduce building construction time. Their structural design is usually carried out under the assumption that the load-carrying mechanism is similar to that of a traditional steel moment-resisting system. However, both systems are different in terms of beam-column connection details which may strongly influence the lateral structural behavior. Specially, the presence of access holes in a beam-column joint of a unit modular frame could cause undesirable failure during strong earthquakes. Therefore, this study carried out finite element analyses (FEM) of unit modular frames to investigate the cyclic behavior of beam-column joints with the structural influence of access holes. Analysis results show that the unit modular frames present stable cyclic response with large deformation capacities, and their joints are classified into semi-rigid connections.

Keywords: unit modular frame, steel moment connection, nonlinear analytical model, moment-rotation relation

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Authors: Ahmed Shaboub, Yusuf Jasim Althawadi, Shadi Alaa Abdelaal, Mohamed Hussein Abdalla, Hatem Amr Elzahaby, Mohamed Mohamed, Hazem S. Ghaith, Ahmed Negida

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Objectives: We aimed to compare the safety and outcomes of the minimally invasive approaches versus conventional sternotomy procedures for aortic valve replacement. Methods: We conducted a PRISMA-compliant systematic review and meta-analysis. We ran an electronic search of PubMed, Cochrane CENTRAL, Scopus, and Web of Science to identify the relevant published studies. Data were extracted and pooled as standardized mean difference (SMD) or risk ratio (RR) using StataMP version 17 for macOS. Results: Forty-one studies with a total of 15,065 patients were included in this meta-analysis (minimally invasive approaches n=7231 vs. conventional sternotomy n=7834). The pooled effect size showed that minimally invasive approaches had lower mortality rate (RR 0.76, 95%CI [0.59 to 0.99]), intensive care unit and hospital stays (SMD -0.16 and -0.31, respectively), ventilation time (SMD -0.26, 95%CI [-0.38 to -0.15]), 24-h chest tube drainage (SMD -1.03, 95%CI [-1.53 to -0.53]), RBCs transfusion (RR 0.81, 95%CI [0.70 to 0.93]), wound infection (RR 0.66, 95%CI [0.47 to 0.92]) and acute renal failure (RR 0.65, 95%CI [0.46 to 0.93]). However, minimally invasive approaches had longer operative time, cross-clamp, and bypass times (SMD 0.47, 95%CI [0.22 to 0.72], SMD 0.27, 95%CI [0.07 to 0.48], and SMD 0.37, 95%CI [0.20 to 0.45], respectively). There were no differences between the two groups in blood loss, endocarditis, cardiac tamponade, stroke, arrhythmias, pneumonia, pneumothorax, bleeding reoperation, tracheostomy, hemodialysis, or myocardial infarction (all P>0.05). Conclusion: Current evidence showed higher safety and better operative outcomes with minimally invasive aortic valve replacement compared to the conventional approach. Future RCTs with long-term follow-ups are recommended.

Keywords: aortic replacement, minimally invasive, sternotomy, mini-sternotomy, aortic valve, meta analysis

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Authors: Rajesh Singh, Kailash Kale

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In this paper, the Binomial process type occurrence of software failures is considered and failure intensity has been characterized by one parameter Rayleigh class Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM). The proposed SRGM is mathematical function of parameters namely; total number of failures i.e. η-0 and scale parameter i.e. η-1. It is assumed that very little or no information is available about both these parameters and then considering non-informative priors for both these parameters, the Bayes estimators for the parameters η-0 and η-1 have been obtained under square error loss function. The proposed Bayes estimators are compared with their corresponding maximum likelihood estimators on the basis of risk efficiencies obtained by Monte Carlo simulation technique. It is concluded that both the proposed Bayes estimators of total number of failures and scale parameter perform well for proper choice of execution time.

Keywords: binomial process, non-informative prior, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), rayleigh class, software reliability growth model (SRGM)

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Authors: Luo Jin China, Jin Fang

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Countryside has been generally recognized and regarded as a characteristic symbol which presents in human memory for a long time. As a result of the change of times, because of it’s failure to meet the growing needs of the growing life and mental decline, the vast rural area began to decline. But their history feature image which accumulated by the ancient tradition provides people with the origins of existence on the spiritual level, such as "identity" and "belonging", makes people closer to the others in the spiritual and psychological aspects of a common experience about the past, thus the sense of a lack of culture caused by the losing of memory symbols is weakened. So, in the modernization process, how to repair its vitality and transform and planning it in a sustainable way has become a hot topics in architectural and urban planning. This paper aims to break the constraints of disciplines, from the perspective of interdiscipline, using the research methods of systems science to analyze and discuss the theories and methods of rural form factors, which based on the viewpoint of memory in psychology. So, we can find a right way to transform the Rural to give full play to the role of the countryside in the actual use and the shape of history spirits.

Keywords: rural, sustainable renovation, restoration, psychology, memory

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Authors: Neil Bar, Andrew Heweston

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Probability of failure (PF) often appears alongside factor of safety (FS) in design acceptance criteria for rock slope, underground excavation and open pit mine designs. However, the design acceptance criteria generally provide no guidance relating to how PF should be calculated for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses, or what qualifies a ‘reasonable’ PF assessment for a given slope design. Observational and kinematic methods were widely used in the 1990s until advances in computing permitted the routine use of numerical modelling. In the 2000s and early 2010s, PF in numerical models was generally calculated using the point estimate method. More recently, some limit equilibrium analysis software offer statistical parameter inputs along with Monte-Carlo or Latin-Hypercube sampling methods to automatically calculate PF. Factors including rock type and density, weathering and alteration, intact rock strength, rock mass quality and shear strength, the location and orientation of geologic structure, shear strength of geologic structure and groundwater pore pressure influence the stability of rock slopes. Significant engineering and geological judgment, interpretation and data interpolation is usually applied in determining these factors and amalgamating them into a geotechnical model which can then be analysed. Most factors are estimated ‘approximately’ or with allowances for some variability rather than ‘exactly’. When it comes to numerical modelling, some of these factors are then treated deterministically (i.e. as exact values), while others have probabilistic inputs based on the user’s discretion and understanding of the problem being analysed. This paper discusses the importance of understanding the key aspects of slope design for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses and how they can be translated into reasonable PF assessments where the data permits. A case study from a large open pit gold mine in a complex geological setting in Western Australia is presented to illustrate how PF can be calculated using different methods and obtain markedly different results. Ultimately sound engineering judgement and logic is often required to decipher the true meaning and significance (if any) of some PF results.

Keywords: probability of failure, point estimate method, Monte-Carlo simulations, sensitivity analysis, slope stability

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Authors: R. O. Osaseri, A. R. Usiobaifo

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The power transformer which is responsible for the voltage transformation is of great relevance in the power system and oil-immerse transformer is widely used all over the world. A prompt and proper maintenance of the transformer is of utmost importance. The dissolved gasses content in power transformer, oil is of enormous importance in detecting incipient fault of the transformer. There is a need for accurate prediction of the incipient fault in transformer oil in order to facilitate the prompt maintenance and reducing the cost and error minimization. Study on fault prediction and diagnostic has been the center of many researchers and many previous works have been reported on the use of artificial intelligence to predict incipient failure of transformer faults. In this study machine learning technique was employed by using gradient decent algorithms and Support Vector Machine (SVM) in predicting incipient fault diagnosis of transformer. The method focuses on creating a system that improves its performance on previous result and historical data. The system design approach is basically in two phases; training and testing phase. The gradient decent algorithm is trained with a training dataset while the learned algorithm is applied to a set of new data. This two dataset is used to prove the accuracy of the proposed model. In this study a transformer fault diagnostic model based on Support Vector Machine (SVM) and gradient decent algorithms has been presented with a satisfactory diagnostic capability with high percentage in predicting incipient failure of transformer faults than existing diagnostic methods.

Keywords: diagnostic model, gradient decent, machine learning, support vector machine (SVM), transformer fault

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Authors: Sai Hung Cheung, Zhe Shao

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It is of our great interest to quantify the risk to structural dynamic systems due to earthquake-induced tsunamis in view of recent earthquake-induced tsunamis in Padang, 2004 and Tohoku, 2011 which brought huge losses of lives and properties. Despite continuous advancement in computational simulation of the tsunami and wave-structure interaction modeling, it still remains computationally challenging to evaluate the reliability of a structural dynamic system when uncertainties related to the system and its modeling are taken into account. The failure of the structure in a tsunami-wave-structural system is defined as any response quantities of the system exceeding specified thresholds during the time when the structure is subjected to dynamic wave impact due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. In this paper, an approach based on a novel integration of a recently proposed moving least squares response surface approach for stochastic sampling and the Subset Simulation algorithm is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is discussed by comparing its results with those obtained from the Subset Simulation algorithm without using the response surface approach.

Keywords: response surface, stochastic simulation, structural reliability tsunami, risk

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Authors: H. M. Ferreira, H. Cockings, D. F. Gordon

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Climate change is driving a transition in the energy sector, with low-carbon energy sources such as hydrogen (H2) emerging as an alternative to fossil fuels. However, the successful implementation of a hydrogen economy requires an expansion of hydrogen production, transportation and storage capacity. The costs associated with this transition are high but can be partly mitigated by adapting the current oil and natural gas networks, such as pipeline, an important component of the hydrogen infrastructure, to transport pure or blended hydrogen. Steel pipelines are designed to withstand fatigue, one of the most common causes of pipeline failure. However, it is well established that some materials, such as steel, can fail prematurely in service when exposed to hydrogen-rich environments. Therefore, it is imperative to evaluate how defects (e.g. inclusions, dents, and pre-existing cracks) will interact with hydrogen under cyclic loading and, ultimately, to what extent hydrogen induced failure will limit the service conditions of steel pipelines. This presentation will explore how the exposure of API 5L X65 to a hydrogen-rich environment and cyclic loads will influence its susceptibility to hydrogen induced failure. That evaluation will be performed by a combination of several techniques such as hydrogen permeation testing (ISO 17081:2014), fatigue crack growth (FCG) testing (ISO 12108:2018 and AFGROW modelling), combined with microstructural and fractographic analysis. The development of a FCG test setup coupled with an electrochemical cell will be discussed, along with the advantages and challenges of measuring crack growth rates in electrolytic hydrogen environments. A detailed assessment of several electrolytic charging conditions will also be presented, using hydrogen permeation testing as a method to correlate the different charging settings to equivalent hydrogen concentrations and effective diffusivity coefficients, not only on the base material but also on the heat affected zone and weld of the pipelines. The experimental work is being complemented with AFGROW, a useful FCG modelling software that has helped inform testing parameters and which will also be developed to ultimately help industry experts perform structural integrity analysis and remnant life characterisation of pipeline steels under representative conditions. The results from this research will allow to conclude if there is an acceleration of the crack growth rate of API 5L X65 under the influence of a hydrogen-rich environment, an important aspect that needs to be rectified instandards and codes of practice on pipeline integrity evaluation and maintenance.

Keywords: AFGROW, electrolytic hydrogen charging, fatigue crack growth, hydrogen, pipeline, steel

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Authors: Jinyoung Choi, Tae-Ho Yoon, Sunmook Lee

Abstract:

Degradation of standard oxygen transfer efficiency (SOTE) with time was observed for the assessment of lifetime of metal-based air-diffuser, which displaced a polymer composite-based air-diffuser in order to attain a longer lifetime in the actual field. The degradation of air-diffuser occurred due to the failure of the formation of small and uniform air bubbles since the patterns formed on the disc of air-diffuser deteriorated and/or changed from their initial shapes while they were continuously exposed to the air blowing condition during the operation in the field. Therefore, the lifetime assessment of metal-based air-diffuser was carried out through an accelerated degradation test by accelerating the air-blowing conditions in 200 L/min, 300 L/min, and 400 L/min and the lifetime of normal operating condition at 120 L/min was predicted. It was found that Weibull distribution was the most proper one for describing the lifetime distribution of metal-based air-diffuser in the present study. The shape and scale parameters indicated that the accelerated blowing conditions were all within the acceleration domain. The lifetime was predicted by adopting inverse power model for a stress-life relationship and estimated to be B10=94,004 hrs with CL=95%. Acknowledgement: This work was financially supported by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (Grant number: N0001475).

Keywords: accelerated degradation test, air-diffuser, lifetime assessment, SOTE

Procedia PDF Downloads 562

Authors: O. Delage, H. Bencherif, T. Portafaix, A. Bourdier

Abstract:

The main purpose of time series analysis is to learn about the dynamics behind some time ordered measurement data. Two approaches are used in the literature to get a better knowledge of the dynamics contained in observation data sequences. The first of these approaches concerns time series decomposition, which is an important analysis step allowing patterns and behaviors to be extracted as components providing insight into the mechanisms producing the time series. As in many cases, time series are short, noisy, and non-stationary. To provide components which are physically meaningful, methods such as Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Empirical Wavelet Transform (EWT) or, more recently, Empirical Adaptive Wavelet Decomposition (EAWD) have been proposed. The second approach is to reconstruct the dynamics underlying the time series as a trajectory in state space by mapping a time series into a set of Rᵐ lag vectors by using the method of delays (MOD). Takens has proved that the trajectory obtained with the MOD technic is equivalent to the trajectory representing the dynamics behind the original time series. This work introduces the singular spectrum decomposition (SSD), which is a new adaptive method for decomposing non-linear and non-stationary time series in narrow-banded components. This method takes its origin from singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a nonparametric spectral estimation method used for the analysis and prediction of time series. As the first step of SSD is to constitute a trajectory matrix by embedding a one-dimensional time series into a set of lagged vectors, SSD can also be seen as a reconstruction method like MOD. We will first give a brief overview of the existing decomposition methods (EMD-EWT-EAWD). The SSD method will then be described in detail and applied to experimental time series of observations resulting from total columns of ozone measurements. The results obtained will be compared with those provided by the previously mentioned decomposition methods. We will also compare the reconstruction qualities of the observed dynamics obtained from the SSD and MOD methods.

Keywords: time series analysis, adaptive time series decomposition, wavelet, phase space reconstruction, singular spectrum analysis

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Authors: Yoshiaki Shikata

Abstract:

A prioritized processor-sharing (PS) system with a maximum permissible sojourn time (MPST) is proposed. In this PS system, a higher-priority request is allocated a larger service ratio than a lower-priority request. Moreover, each request receiving service is guaranteed the maximum permissible sojourn time determined by each priority class, regardless of its service time. Arriving requests that cannot receive service due to this guarantee are rejected. We further propose a guarantee method for implementing such a system, and discuss performance evaluation procedures for the resulting system. Practical performance measures, such as the relationships between the loss probability or mean sojourn time of each class request and the maximum permissible sojourn time are evaluated via simulation. At the arrival of each class request, its acceptance or rejection is judged using extended sojourn times of all requests receiving service in the server. As the MPST increases, the mean sojourn time increases almost linearly. However, the logarithm of the loss probability decreases almost linearly. Moreover with an MPST, the difference in the mean sojourn time for different MPSTs increases with the traffic rate. Conversely, the difference in the loss probability for different MPSTs decreases as the traffic rate increases.

Keywords: prioritized processor sharing, priority ratio, permissible sojourn time, loss probability, mean sojourn time, simulation

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Authors: Manuel E. Soto-López, Israel Gaxiola-Avendaño, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar, Eden Bojórquez, Sonia E. Ruiz

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The seismic responses of steel buildings with semi-rigid post-tensioned connections (PC) are estimated and compared with those of steel buildings with typical rigid (welded) connections (RC). The comparison is made in terms of global and local response parameters. The results indicate that the seismic responses in terms of interstory shears, roof displacements, axial load and bending moments are smaller for the buildings with PC connection. The difference is larger for global than for local parameters, which in turn varies from one column location to another. The reason for this improved behavior is that the buildings with PC dissipate more hysteretic energy than those with RC. In addition, unlike the case of buildings with WC, for the PC structures the hysteretic energy is mostly dissipated at the connections, which implies that structural damage in beams and columns is not significant. According to this results, steel buildings with PC are a viable option in highseismicity areas because of their smaller response and self-centering connection capacity as well as the fact that brittle failure is avoided.

Keywords: inter-story drift, nonlinear time-history analysis, post-tensioned connections, steel buildings

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Authors: Fazeera Ujin, Kamran Shavarebi Ali, Zarina Yasmin Hanur Harith

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This research paper reports on the feasibility and viability of eggshells ash and its effects on the water content and setting time of cement. An experiment was carried out to determine the quantity of water required in order to follow standard cement paste of normal consistency in accordance with MS EN 196-3:2007. The eggshells ash passing the 90µm sieve was used in the investigation. Eggshells ash with percentage of 0%, 0.1%, 0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5% and 2.0% were constituted to replace the cement. Chemical properties of both eggshells ash and cement are compared. From the results obtained, both eggshells ash and cement have the same chemical composition and primary composition which is the calcium compounds. Results from the setting time show that by adding the eggshells ash to the cement, the setting time of the cement decreases. In short, the higher amount of eggshells ash, the faster the rate of setting and apply to all percentage of eggshells ash that were used in this investigation. Both initial and final setting times fulfill the setting time requirements by Malaysian Standard. Hence, it is suggested that eggshells ash can be used as an admixture in concrete mix.

Keywords: construction materials, eggshells ash, solid waste, setting time

Procedia PDF Downloads 394

Authors: Abdullah A. Al Qurashi, Hattan A. Hassani, Bader K. Alaslap

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Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Dysplasia/Cardiomyopathy (ARVD/C) is an uncommon, inheritable cardiac disorder characterized by the progressive substitution of cardiac myocytes by fibro-fatty tissues. This pathologic substitution predisposes patients to ventricular arrhythmias and right ventricular failure. The underlying genetic defect predominantly involves genes encoding for desmosome proteins, particularly plakophilin-2 (PKP2). These aberrations lead to impaired cell adhesion, heightening the susceptibility to fibrofatty scarring under conditions of mechanical stress. Primarily, ARVD/C affects the right ventricle, but it can also compromise the left ventricle, potentially leading to biventricular heart failure. Clinical presentations can vary, spanning from asymptomatic individuals to those experiencing palpitations, syncopal episodes, and, in severe instances, sudden cardiac death. The establishment of a diagnostic criterion specifically tailored for ARVD/C significantly aids in its accurate diagnosis. Nevertheless, the task of early diagnosis is complicated by the disease's frequently asymptomatic initial stages, and the overall rarity of ARVD/C cases reported globally. In some cases, as exemplified by the adult female patient in this report, the disease may advance to terminal stages, rendering therapies like Ventricular Tachycardia (VT) ablation ineffective. This case underlines the necessity for increased awareness and understanding of ARVD/C to aid in its early detection and management. Through such efforts, we aim to decrease morbidity and mortality associated with this challenging cardiac disorder.

Keywords: arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia, cardiac disease, interventional cardiology, cardiac electrophysiology

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Authors: Brandon Knopp, Matthew Harris

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Purpose: Tip-apex distance (TAD) has long been discussed as a metric for determining risk of failure in the fixation of peritrochanteric fractures. TAD measurements over 25 millimeters (mm) have been associated with higher rates of screw cut out and other complications in the first several months after surgery. However, there is limited evidence for the efficacy of this measurement in predicting the long-term risk of negative outcomes following hip fixation surgery. The purpose of our study was to investigate risk factors including TAD for hospital readmission, loss of pre-injury ambulation and development of complications within 1 year after hip fixation surgery. Methods: A retrospective review of proximal hip fractures treated with single screw intramedullary devices between 2016 and 2020 was performed at a 327-bed regional medical center. Patients included had a postoperative follow-up of at least 12 months or surgery-related complications developing within that time. Results: 44 of the 67 patients in this study met the inclusion criteria with adequate follow-up post-surgery. There was a total of 10 males (22.7%) and 34 females (77.3%) meeting inclusion criteria with a mean age of 82.1 (± 12.3) at the time of surgery. The average TAD in our study population was 19.57mm and the average 1-year readmission rate was 15.9%. 3 out of 6 patients (50%) with a TAD > 25mm were readmitted within one year due to surgery-related complications. In contrast, 3 out of 38 patients (7.9%) with a TAD < 25mm were readmitted within one year due to surgery-related complications (p=0.0254). Individual TAD measurements, averaging 22.05mm in patients readmitted within 1 year of surgery and 19.18mm in patients not readmitted within 1 year of surgery, were not significantly different between the two groups (p=0.2113). Conclusions: Our data indicate a significant improvement in hospital readmission rates up to one year after hip fixation surgery in patients with a TAD < 25mm with a decrease in readmissions of over 40% (50% vs 7.9%). This result builds upon past investigations by extending the follow-up time to 1 year after surgery and utilizing hospital readmissions as a metric for surgical success. With the well-documented physical and financial costs of hospital readmission after hip surgery, our study highlights a reduction of TAD < 25mm as an effective method of improving patient outcomes and reducing financial costs to patients and medical institutions. No relationship was found between TAD measurements and secondary outcomes, including loss of pre-injury ambulation and development of complications.

Keywords: hip fractures, hip reductions, readmission rates, open reduction internal fixation

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Authors: Claudius Peter Van Wyk

Abstract:

Given the increasingly manifest phenomena, as described in complexity theory, of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA), Taleb's notion of 'antifragility, has a significant contribution to make to positive psychology applied to wellbeing. Antifragility is argued to be fundamentally different from the concepts of resiliency; as the ability to recover from failure, and robustness; as the ability to resist failure. Rather it describes the capacity to reorganise in the face of stress in such a way as to cope more effectively with systemic challenges. The concept, which has been applied in disciplines ranging from physics, molecular biology, planning, engineering, and computer science, can now be considered for its application in individual human and social wellbeing. There are strong correlations to Antonovsky's model of 'salutogenesis' in which an attitude and competencies are developed of transforming burdening factors into greater resourcefulness. We demonstrate, from the perspective of neuroscience, how technology measuring nervous system coherence can be coupled to acquired psychodynamic approaches to not only identify contextual stressors, utilise biofeedback instruments for facilitating greater coherence, but apply these insights to specific life stressors that compromise well-being. Employing an on-going case study with BMW South Africa, the neurological mapping is demonstrated together with 'reframing' and emotional anchoring techniques from neurolinguistic programming. The argument is contextualised in the discipline of psychoneuroimmunology which describes the stress pathways from the CNS and endocrine systems and their impact on immune function and the capacity to restore homeostasis.

Keywords: antifragility, complexity, neuroscience, psychoneuroimmunology, salutogenesis, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Ricardo Mendoza, Jason Briceño, Juan F. Santa, Gabriel Peluffo, Mauricio Márquez, Beatriz Cardozo, Carlos Gutiérrez

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The most common controlled method to obtain impact strength of composites materials is performing a Charpy Impact Test which consists of a pendulum with calibrated mass and length released from a known height. In fact, composites components experience impact events in normal operations such as when a tool drops or a foreign object strikes it. These events are categorized into low velocity impact (LVI) which typically occurs at velocities below 10m/s. In this study, the major aim was to calculate the absorbed energy during the impact. Tests were performed on three types of composite panels: fiberglass laminated panels, coir fiber reinforced polyester and coir fiber reinforced polyester subjected to water immersion for 48 hours. Coir fibers were obtained in local plantations of the Caribbean coast of Colombia. They were alkali treated in 5% aqueous NaOH solution for 2h periods. Three type of shape impactors were used on drop-weight impact test including hemispherical, ogive and pointed. Failure mechanisms and failure modes of specimens were examined using an optical microscope. Results demonstrate a reduction in absorbed energy correlated with the increment of water absorption of the panels. For each level of absorbed energy, it was possible to associate a different fracture state. This study compares results of energy absorbed obtained from two impact test methods.

Keywords: coir fiber, polyester composites, low velocity impact, Charpy impact test, drop-weight impact test

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Authors: Esmaeil Asadzadeh, Mehtab Alam

Abstract:

Well documented records of the past failures of the structures reveals that the progressive collapse of structures is one of the major reasons for dramatic human loss and economical consequences. Progressive collapse is the failure mechanism in which the structure fails gradually due to the sudden removal of the structural elements. The sudden removal of some structural elements results in the excessive redistributed loads on the others. This sudden removal may be caused by any sudden loading resulted from local explosion, impact loading and terrorist attacks. Hyperbolic thin walled concrete shell structures being an important part of nuclear and thermal power plants are always prone to such terrorist attacks. In concrete structures, the gradual failure would take place by generation of initial cracks and its propagation in the supporting columns along with the tower shell leading to the collapse of the entire structure. In this study the mechanism of progressive collapse for such high raised towers would be simulated employing the finite element method. The aim of this study would be providing clear conceptual step-by-step descriptions of various procedures for progressive collapse analysis using commercially available finite element structural analysis software’s, with the aim that the explanations would be clear enough that they will be readily understandable and will be used by practicing engineers. The study would be carried out in the following procedures: 1. Provide explanations of modeling, simulation and analysis procedures including input screen snapshots; 2. Interpretation of the results and discussions; 3. Conclusions and recommendations.

Keywords: progressive collapse, cooling towers, finite element analysis, crack generation, reinforced concrete

Procedia PDF Downloads 481