Search results for: loss estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5144

Search results for: loss estimation

4334 Estimating View-Through Ad Attribution from User Surveys Using Convex Optimization

Authors: Yuhan Lin, Rohan Kekatpure, Cassidy Yeung

Abstract:

In Digital Marketing, robust quantification of View-through attribution (VTA) is necessary for evaluating channel effectiveness. VTA occurs when a product purchase is aided by an Ad but without an explicit click (e.g. a TV ad). A lack of a tracking mechanism makes VTA estimation challenging. Most prevalent VTA estimation techniques rely on post-purchase in-product user surveys. User surveys enable the calculation of channel multipliers, which are the ratio of the view-attributed to the click-attributed purchases of each marketing channel. Channel multipliers thus provide a way to estimate the unknown VTA for a channel from its known click attribution. In this work, we use Convex Optimization to compute channel multipliers in a way that enables a mathematical encoding of the expected channel behavior. Large fluctuations in channel attributions often result from overfitting the calculations to user surveys. Casting channel attribution as a Convex Optimization problem allows an introduction of constraints that limit such fluctuations. The result of our study is a distribution of channel multipliers across the entire marketing funnel, with important implications for marketing spend optimization. Our technique can be broadly applied to estimate Ad effectiveness in a privacy-centric world that increasingly limits user tracking.

Keywords: digital marketing, survey analysis, operational research, convex optimization, channel attribution

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4333 The Response of the Central Bank to the Exchange Rate Movement: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium-Vector Autoregressive Approach for Tunisian Economy

Authors: Abdelli Soulaima, Belhadj Besma

Abstract:

The paper examines the choice of the central bank toward the movements of the nominal exchange rate and evaluates its effects on the volatility of the output growth and the inflation. The novel hybrid method of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium called the DSGE-VAR is proposed for analyzing this policy experiment in a small scale open economy in particular Tunisia. The contribution is provided to the empirical literature as we apply the Tunisian data with this model, which is rarely used in this context. Note additionally that the issue of treating the degree of response of the central bank to the exchange rate in Tunisia is special. To ameliorate the estimation, the Bayesian technique is carried out for the sample 1980:q1 to 2011 q4. Our results reveal that the central bank should not react or softly react to the exchange rate. The variance decomposition displayed that the overall inflation volatility is more pronounced with the fixed exchange rate regime for most of the shocks except for the productivity and the interest rate. The output volatility is also higher with this regime with the majority of the shocks exempting the foreign interest rate and the interest rate shocks.

Keywords: DSGE-VAR modeling, exchange rate, monetary policy, Bayesian estimation

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4332 Pueblos Mágicos in Mexico: The Loss of Intangible Cultural Heritage and Cultural Tourism

Authors: Claudia Rodriguez-Espinosa, Erika Elizabeth Pérez Múzquiz

Abstract:

Since the creation of the “Pueblos Mágicos” program in 2001, a series of social and cultural events had directly affected the heritage conservation of the 121 registered localities until 2018, when the federal government terminated the program. Many studies have been carried out that seek to analyze from different perspectives and disciplines the consequences that these appointments have generated in the “Pueblos Mágicos.” Multidisciplinary groups such as the one headed by Carmen Valverde and Liliana López Levi, have brought together specialists from all over the Mexican Republic to create a set of diagnoses of most of these settlements, and although each one has unique specificities, there is a constant in most of them that has to do with the loss of cultural heritage and that is related to transculturality. There are several factors identified that have fostered a cultural loss, as a direct reflection of the economic crisis that prevails in Mexico. It is important to remember that the origin of this program had as its main objective to promote the growth and development of local economies since one of the conditions for entering the program is that they have less than 20,000 inhabitants. With this goal in mind, one of the first actions that many “Pueblos Mágicos” carried out was to improve or create an infrastructure to receive both national and foreign tourists since this was practically non-existent. Creating hotels, restaurants, cafes, training certified tour guides, among other actions, have led to one of the great problems they face: globalization. Although by itself it is not bad, its impact in many cases has been negative for heritage conservation. The entry into and contact with new cultures has led to the undervaluation of cultural traditions, their transformation and even their total loss. This work seeks to present specific cases of transformation and loss of cultural heritage, as well as to reflect on the problem and propose scenarios in which the negative effects can be reversed. For this text, 36 “Pueblos Mágicos” have been selected for study, based on those settlements that are cited in volumes I and IV (the first and last of the collection) of the series produced by the multidisciplinary group led by Carmen Valverde and Liliana López Levi (researchers from UNAM and UAM Xochimilco respectively) in the project supported by CONACyT entitled “Pueblos Mágicos. An interdisciplinary vision”, of which we are part. This sample is considered representative since it forms 30% of the total of 121 “Pueblos Mágicos” existing at that moment. With this information, the elements of its intangible heritage loss or transformation have been identified in every chapter based on the texts written by the participants of that project. Finally, this text shows an analysis of the effects that this federal program, as a public policy applied to 132 populations, has had on the conservation or transformation of the intangible cultural heritage of the “Pueblos Mágicos.” Transculturality, globalization, the creation of identities and the desire to increase the flow of tourists have impacted the changes that traditions (main intangible cultural heritage) have had in the 18 years that the federal program lasted.

Keywords: public policies, cultural tourism, heritage preservation, pueblos mágicos program

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4331 Predictive Analytics in Traffic Flow Management: Integrating Temporal Dynamics and Traffic Characteristics to Estimate Travel Time

Authors: Maria Ezziani, Rabie Zine, Amine Amar, Ilhame Kissani

Abstract:

This paper introduces a predictive model for urban transportation engineering, which is vital for efficient traffic management. Utilizing comprehensive datasets and advanced statistical techniques, the model accurately forecasts travel times by considering temporal variations and traffic dynamics. Machine learning algorithms, including regression trees and neural networks, are employed to capture sequential dependencies. Results indicate significant improvements in predictive accuracy, particularly during peak hours and holidays, with the incorporation of traffic flow and speed variables. Future enhancements may integrate weather conditions and traffic incidents. The model's applications range from adaptive traffic management systems to route optimization algorithms, facilitating congestion reduction and enhancing journey reliability. Overall, this research extends beyond travel time estimation, offering insights into broader transportation planning and policy-making realms, empowering stakeholders to optimize infrastructure utilization and improve network efficiency.

Keywords: predictive analytics, traffic flow, travel time estimation, urban transportation, machine learning, traffic management

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4330 Design and Analysis of Proximity Fed Single Band Microstrip Patch Antenna with Parasitic Lines

Authors: Inderpreet Kaur, Sukhjit Kaur, Balwinder Singh Sohi

Abstract:

The design proposed in this paper mainly focuses on implementation of a single feed compact rectangular microstrip patch antenna (MSA) for single band application. The antenna presented here also works in dual band but its best performance has been obtained when optimised to work in single band mode. In this paper, a new feeding structure is applied in the patch antenna design to overcome undesirable features of the earlier multilayer feeding structures while maintaining their interesting features.To make the proposed antenna more efficient the optimization of the antenna design parameters have been done using HFSS’s optometric. For the proposed antenna one resonant frequency has been obtained at 6.03GHz, with Bandwidth of 167MHz and return loss of -33.82db. The characteristics of the designed structure are investigated by using FEM based electromagnetic solver.

Keywords: bandwidth, retun loss, parasitic lines, microstrip antenna

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4329 Maryland Restoration of Anterior Tooth Loss as a Minimal Invasive Dentistry: An Alternative Treatment

Authors: B. Oral, C. Bal, M. S. Kar, A. Akgürbüz

Abstract:

Loss of maxillary central incisors occurs in many patients, and the treatment of young adults with this problem is a challenge for both prosthodontists and orthodontists. Common treatment alternatives are distalization of adjacent teeth and fabrication of a conventional 3-unit fixed partial denture, a single implant supported crown restoration or a resin-bonded fixed partial denture. This case report describes the indication of a resin-bonded fixed partial denture, preparation of the abutment teeth and the prosthetic procedures. The technique described here represents a conservative, esthetically pleasing and rapid solution for the missing maxillary central incisor when implant placement and/or guided bone regeneration techniques are not feasible because of financial, social or time restrictions. In this case a 16 year-old female patient who lost her maxillary left central incisor six years ago in a bicycle accident applied to our clinic with a major complaint of her unaesthetic appearance associated with the loss of her maxillary left central incisor. Although there was an indication for orthodontic treatment because of the limited space at the traumatized area, the patient did not accept to receive any orthodontic procedure. That is why an implant supported restoration could not be an option for the narrow area. Therefore maryland bridge as a minimal invasive dental therapy was preferred as a retention appliance so the patient's aesthetic appearance was restored.

Keywords: Maryland bridge, single tooth restoration, aesthetics, maxillary central incisors

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4328 Dual-Channel Multi-Band Spectral Subtraction Algorithm Dedicated to a Bilateral Cochlear Implant

Authors: Fathi Kallel, Ahmed Ben Hamida, Christian Berger-Vachon

Abstract:

In this paper, a Speech Enhancement Algorithm based on Multi-Band Spectral Subtraction (MBSS) principle is evaluated for Bilateral Cochlear Implant (BCI) users. Specifically, dual-channel noise power spectral estimation algorithm using Power Spectral Densities (PSD) and Cross Power Spectral Densities (CPSD) of the observed signals is studied. The enhanced speech signal is obtained using Dual-Channel Multi-Band Spectral Subtraction ‘DC-MBSS’ algorithm. For performance evaluation, objective speech assessment test relying on Perceptual Evaluation of Speech Quality (PESQ) score is performed to fix the optimal number of frequency bands needed in DC-MBSS algorithm. In order to evaluate the speech intelligibility, subjective listening tests are assessed with 3 deafened BCI patients. Experimental results obtained using French Lafon database corrupted by an additive babble noise at different Signal-to-Noise Ratios (SNR) showed that DC-MBSS algorithm improves speech understanding for single and multiple interfering noise sources.

Keywords: speech enhancement, spectral substracion, noise estimation, cochlear impalnt

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4327 Assessing Social Vulnerability and Policy Adaption Application Responses Based on Landslide Risk Map

Authors: Z. A. Ahmad, R. C. Omar, I. Z. Baharuddin, R. Roslan

Abstract:

Assessments of social vulnerability, carried out holistically, can provide an important guide to the planning process and to decisions on resource allocation at various levels, and can help to raise public awareness of geo-hazard risks. The assessments can help to provide answers for basic questions such as the human vulnerability at the geo-hazard prone or disaster areas causing health damage, economic loss, loss of natural heritage and vulnerability impact of extreme natural hazard event. To overcome these issues, integrated framework for assessing the increasing human vulnerability to environmental changes caused by geo-hazards will be introduced using an indicator from landslide risk map that is related to agent based modeling platform. The indicators represent the underlying factors, which influence a community’s ability to deal with and recover from the damage associated with geo-hazards. Scope of this paper is particularly limited to landslides.

Keywords: social, vulnerability, geo-hazard, methodology, indicators

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4326 Parameter Estimation for Contact Tracing in Graph-Based Models

Authors: Augustine Okolie, Johannes Müller, Mirjam Kretzchmar

Abstract:

We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to determine the degree distribution of the random tree as well as the tracing probability. Since we do not discover all infectees via contact tracing, this estimation is non-trivial. To keep things simple and stable, we develop an approximation suited for realistic situations (contract tracing probability small, or the probability for the detection of index cases small). In this approximation, the only epidemiological parameter entering the estimator is the basic reproduction number R0. The estimator is tested in a simulation study and applied to covid-19 contact tracing data from India. The simulation study underlines the efficiency of the method. For the empirical covid-19 data, we are able to compare different degree distributions and perform a sensitivity analysis. We find that particularly a power-law and a negative binomial degree distribution meet the data well and that the tracing probability is rather large. The sensitivity analysis shows no strong dependency on the reproduction number.

Keywords: stochastic SIR model on graph, contact tracing, branching process, parameter inference

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4325 Migration and Mobility of South African Teachers: A Case Study

Authors: Rian de Villiers

Abstract:

Human mobility is one of the most significant development, foreign policy and domestic issues in the world today. Teacher loss due to migration is a global phenomenon that is impacting both developed and developing nations the world over. The purpose of this study was to find out how many newly qualified South African teachers were planning to teach in a foreign country; what were the prospective migrant teachers’ motives for migration; what destination countries were the most popular and why; and what were the prospective migrant teachers’ information needs before leaving South Africa. A group of final-year Bachelor of Education student teachers from a single university responded to a questionnaire on intra-and intercontinental migration. The responses were analysed quantitatively and/or qualitatively. The findings showed that 79% of the students indicated that they would be teaching in South Africa, 9% were planning to teach in another country, while 8% were undecided. More than a third of the students (38%) said that they would like to teach in another country in five years time. Just more than a quarter of the students (27%) preferred Australia as a destination, followed by the United Kingdom (16%), Korea (16%) and the USA (14%). The student teachers’ most important motive to teach in a foreign country was the opportunity to travel (27%), followed by earning a higher salary (26%) and professional development (23%). The student teachers indicated that their most important migration needs before leaving South Africa were information about health care, accommodation and banking assistance. Huge loss of teachers to host countries has a serious, negative impact upon the education system of most developing and/or source countries, including South Africa. Several steps and strategies to resolve teacher loss in South Africa are discussed.

Keywords: migration, academic mobility, teachers, teacher students, South Africa

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4324 Drying Kinetics of Okara (Soy Pulp) Using the Multi-Commodity Heat Pump Dryer (MCHPD)

Authors: Lorcelie B. Taclan, Jolly S. Balila, Maribel Balagtas, Eunice M. Aclan, Myrtle C. Orbon, Emson Y. Taclan, Irenea A. Centeno

Abstract:

Okara (soy pulp), a by-product and waste from the production of soymilk, tufo and tokwa and soybean-based vegan food products is readily available in the university thrice a week. The Food Factory owned and managed by AUP produces these food products weekly. Generally the study was conducted to determine the drying kinetics of soya pulp using the MCHPD. Specifically, it aimed to establish the time of drying; moisture loss per hour and percent moisture content of soya pulp and to establish the dried okara as an ingredient to other foods. The MCHPD is drying equipment that has an ideal drying condition of 50.00C and 10.0% relative humidity. Fresh and wet soya pulp were weighed at 1.0 kg per tray (21 drying trays), laid on the trays lined with cheese cloth. The MCHPD was set to desired drying conditions. Weight loss was monitored every hour and calculated using standard formulas. Research results indicated that the drying time for soya pulp was 19.0 hours; the % moisture content was reduced from 87.6.0% to 9.7.0% at an average moisture loss of 3.0 g/hr. The nutritional values of okara were favorably maintained with enhanced color. The dried okara was added as an ingredient to other healthy bakery products produced by the AUP Food Factory. Making use of okara would add nutritional values to other food products and would also help waste management concerns inside the university.

Keywords: okara, MCHPD, drying kinetics, nutritional values, waste management

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4323 Investigation of the Corrosion Inhibition Mechanism of Tagetes erecta Extract for Mild Steel in Nitric Acid: Gravimetric Studies

Authors: Selvam Noyel Victoria, Kavita Yadav, Manivannan Ramachandran

Abstract:

The extract of Tagetes erecta (marigold flower) was used as a green corrosion inhibitor for mild steel (MS) in nitric acid medium. The weight loss measurements were performed to understand the inhibition mechanism. The effect of temperature on the behaviour of mild steel corrosion without and with inhibitor was studied. The temperature studies revealed that the activation energy increased from 12 kJ/mol to 28.8 kJ/mol with the addition of 500 ppm inhibitor concentration. The thermodynamic analysis and the adsorption isotherm studies revealed that the molecules of inhibitor show physical adsorption on the surface of mild steel. Based on weight loss measurements, adsorption of the inhibitor on the surface of mild steel follows Langmuir isotherm.

Keywords: Tagetes erecta, corrosion, adsorption, inhibitor

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4322 The Influence of Viscosifier Concentration on Rheological Properties of Invert Emulsion Mud

Authors: Suzan Ibrahim

Abstract:

Oil-based muds are the most regularly used rotary drilling methods in the oil and gas industry. However, they have a negative impact on the environment, which leads to restrictions of their application in many countries of the world. Consequently, looking for new eco-friendly alternative formulations of oil-based drilling fluids for the exploration of troublesome formations. As one of the developments of Novel formulation of environmentally friendly drilling fluids and investigation of the formulation for jatropha oil-based drilling fluid samples at different concentrations of viscosifiers such as low viscosity polyanionic cellulose (PAC- LV), high viscosity polyanionic cellulose (PAC-V) and local Egyptian bentonite. The oil-water ratio was taken as 70:30, which is beneficial in producing a low fluid loss. 15 drilling fluid samples were formulated different concentrations of bentonite, PAC- LV and PAC-V individually and their mud density, rheological properties, electrical stability and filtration loss properties were determined. The rheological performance showed at higher concentrations of viscosifier, the trend of viscosity increment of PAC performed in a similar way to bentonite. The best result of electrical stability by using the lowest concentration of viscosifier was achieved with PAC-V. The lowest fluid loss volumes were obtained by using the highest concentrations (4 g) of viscosifiers. Mud cake thickness of samples increased by using viscosifiers; however, a lower range was achieved compared to API specification. From the overall experiment, it can be concluded that as the concentrations of viscosifier increase, the viscosity trend increase in a similar way to both PAC-V and bentonite. But we must note that the PAC-V is a more environmentally friendly additive and a renewable resource, cheaper than bentonite and improves properties of eco-friendly OBMs well. It is a preferable choice for oil-based drilling fluids.

Keywords: invert emulsion mud, oil-based mud, rheological properties, viscosifier

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4321 Automatic Adult Age Estimation Using Deep Learning of the ResNeXt Model Based on CT Reconstruction Images of the Costal Cartilage

Authors: Ting Lu, Ya-Ru Diao, Fei Fan, Ye Xue, Lei Shi, Xian-e Tang, Meng-jun Zhan, Zhen-hua Deng

Abstract:

Accurate adult age estimation (AAE) is a significant and challenging task in forensic and archeology fields. Attempts have been made to explore optimal adult age metrics, and the rib is considered a potential age marker. The traditional way is to extract age-related features designed by experts from macroscopic or radiological images followed by classification or regression analysis. Those results still have not met the high-level requirements for practice, and the limitation of using feature design and manual extraction methods is loss of information since the features are likely not designed explicitly for extracting information relevant to age. Deep learning (DL) has recently garnered much interest in imaging learning and computer vision. It enables learning features that are important without a prior bias or hypothesis and could be supportive of AAE. This study aimed to develop DL models for AAE based on CT images and compare their performance to the manual visual scoring method. Chest CT data were reconstructed using volume rendering (VR). Retrospective data of 2500 patients aged 20.00-69.99 years were obtained between December 2019 and September 2021. Five-fold cross-validation was performed, and datasets were randomly split into training and validation sets in a 4:1 ratio for each fold. Before feeding the inputs into networks, all images were augmented with random rotation and vertical flip, normalized, and resized to 224×224 pixels. ResNeXt was chosen as the DL baseline due to its advantages of higher efficiency and accuracy in image classification. Mean absolute error (MAE) was the primary parameter. Independent data from 100 patients acquired between March and April 2022 were used as a test set. The manual method completely followed the prior study, which reported the lowest MAEs (5.31 in males and 6.72 in females) among similar studies. CT data and VR images were used. The radiation density of the first costal cartilage was recorded using CT data on the workstation. The osseous and calcified projections of the 1 to 7 costal cartilages were scored based on VR images using an eight-stage staging technique. According to the results of the prior study, the optimal models were the decision tree regression model in males and the stepwise multiple linear regression equation in females. Predicted ages of the test set were calculated separately using different models by sex. A total of 2600 patients (training and validation sets, mean age=45.19 years±14.20 [SD]; test set, mean age=46.57±9.66) were evaluated in this study. Of ResNeXt model training, MAEs were obtained with 3.95 in males and 3.65 in females. Based on the test set, DL achieved MAEs of 4.05 in males and 4.54 in females, which were far better than the MAEs of 8.90 and 6.42 respectively, for the manual method. Those results showed that the DL of the ResNeXt model outperformed the manual method in AAE based on CT reconstruction of the costal cartilage and the developed system may be a supportive tool for AAE.

Keywords: forensic anthropology, age determination by the skeleton, costal cartilage, CT, deep learning

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4320 A Case Study of Kick Control in Tough Potohar Region

Authors: Iftikhar Raza

Abstract:

Well control is the management of the hazardous effects caused by the unexpected release of formation fluid, such as natural gas and/or crude oil, upon surface equipment of oil or gas drilling rigs and escaping into the atmosphere. Technically, oil well control involves preventing the formation fluid, usually referred to as kick, from entering into the wellbore during drilling. Oil well control is one of the most important aspects of drilling operations. Improper handling of kicks in oil well control can result in blowouts with very grave consequences, including the loss of valuable resources. Even though the cost of a blowout (as a result of improper/no oil well control) can easily reach several millions of US dollars, the monetary loss is not as serious as the other damages that can occur: irreparable damage to the environment, waste of valuable resources, ruined equipment, and most importantly, the safety and lives of personnel on the drilling rig. In this paper, case study of a well is discussed with field data showing the properties of the well. The whole procedure of controlling this well is illustrated in this which may be helpful for professional dealing with such kind of problems.

Keywords: kick control, kill sheet, oil well, gas drilling

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4319 Evaluating the Durability and Safety of Lithium-Ion Batterie in High-Temperature Desert Climates

Authors: Kenza Maher, Yahya Zakaria, Noora S. Al-Jaidah

Abstract:

Temperature is a critical parameter for lithium-ion battery performance, life, and safety. In this study, four commercially available 18650 lithium-ion cells from four different manufacturers are subjected to accelerated cycle aging for up to 500 cycles at two different temperatures (25°C and 45°C). The cells are also calendar-aged at the same temperatures in both charged and discharged states for 6 months to investigate the effect of aging and temperature on capacity fade and state of health. The results showed that all battery cells demonstrated good cyclability and had a good state of health at both temperatures. However, the capacity loss and state of health of these cells are found to be dependent on the cell chemistry and aging conditions, including temperature. Specifically, the capacity loss is found to be higher at the higher aging temperature, indicating the significant impact of temperature on the aging of lithium-ion batteries.

Keywords: lithium-ion battery, aging mechanisms, cycle aging, calendar aging.

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4318 ‘Groupitizing’ – A Key Factor in Math Learning Disabilities

Authors: Michal Wolk, Bat-Sheva Hadad, Orly Rubinsten

Abstract:

Objective: The visuospatial perception system process that allows us to decompose and recompose small quantities into a whole is often called “groupitizing.” Previous studies have been found that adults use groupitizing processes in quantity estimation tasks and link this ability of subgroups recognition to arithmetic proficiency. This pilot study examined if adults with math difficulties benefit from visuospatial grouping cues when asked to estimate the quantity of a given set. It also compared the tipping point in which a significant improvement occurs in adults with typical development compared to adults with math difficulties. Method: In this pilot research, we recruited adults with low arithmetic abilities and matched controls. Participants were asked to estimate the quantity of a given set. Different grouping cues were displayed (space, color, or none) with different visual configurations (different quantities-different shapes, same quantities- different shapes, same quantities- same shapes). Results: Both groups showed significant performance improvement when grouping cues appeared. However, adults with low arithmetic abilities benefited from the grouping cues already in very small quantities as four. Conclusion: impaired perceptual groupitizing abilities may be a characteristic of low arithmetic abilities.

Keywords: groupitizing, math learning disability, quantity estimation, visual perception system

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4317 Effect of High Temperature on Residual Mechanical and Physical Properties of Brick Aggregate Concrete

Authors: Samia Hachemi, Abdelhafid Ounis, W. Heriheri

Abstract:

This paper presents an experimental investigation of high temperatures applied to normal and high performance concrete made with natural coarse aggregates. The experimental results of physical and mechanical properties were compared with those obtained with recycled brick aggregates produced by replacing 30% of natural coarse aggregates by recycled brick aggregates. The following parameters: compressive strength, concrete mass loss, apparent density and water porosity were examined in this experiment. The results show that concrete could be produced by using recycled brick aggregates and reveals that at high temperatures recycled aggregate concrete preformed similar or even better than natural aggregate concrete.

Keywords: high temperature, compressive strength, mass loss, recycled brick aggregate

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4316 Scour Depth Prediction around Bridge Piers Using Neuro-Fuzzy and Neural Network Approaches

Authors: H. Bonakdari, I. Ebtehaj

Abstract:

The prediction of scour depth around bridge piers is frequently considered in river engineering. One of the key aspects in efficient and optimum bridge structure design is considered to be scour depth estimation around bridge piers. In this study, scour depth around bridge piers is estimated using two methods, namely the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Therefore, the effective parameters in scour depth prediction are determined using the ANN and ANFIS methods via dimensional analysis, and subsequently, the parameters are predicted. In the current study, the methods’ performances are compared with the nonlinear regression (NLR) method. The results show that both methods presented in this study outperform existing methods. Moreover, using the ratio of pier length to flow depth, ratio of median diameter of particles to flow depth, ratio of pier width to flow depth, the Froude number and standard deviation of bed grain size parameters leads to optimal performance in scour depth estimation.

Keywords: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), artificial neural network (ANN), bridge pier, scour depth, nonlinear regression (NLR)

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4315 Quantification of Effect of Linear Anionic Polyacrylamide on Seepage in Irrigation Channels

Authors: Hamil Uribe, Cristian Arancibia

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In Chile, the water for irrigation and hydropower generation is delivery essentially through unlined channels on earth, which have high seepage losses. Traditional seepage-abatement technologies are very expensive. The goals of this work were to quantify water loss in unlined channels and select reaches to evaluate the use of linear anionic polyacrylamide (LA-PAM) to reduce seepage losses. The study was carried out in Maule Region, central area of Chile. Water users indicated reaches with potential seepage losses, 45 km of channels in total, whose flow varied between 1.07 and 23.6 m³ s⁻¹. According to seepage measurements, 4 reaches of channels, 4.5 km in total, were selected for LA-PAM application. One to 4 LA-PAM applications were performed at rates of 11 kg ha⁻¹, considering wet perimeter area as basis of calculation. Large channels were used to allow motorboat moving against the current to carry-out LA-PAM application. For applications, a seeder machine was used to evenly distribute granulated polymer on water surface. Water flow was measured (StreamPro ADCP) upstream and downstream in selected reaches, to estimate seepage losses before and after LA-PAM application. Weekly measurements were made to quantify treatment effect and duration. In each case, water turbidity and temperature were measured. Channels showed variable losses up to 13.5%. Channels showing water gains were not treated with PAM. In all cases, LA-PAM effect was positive, achieving average loss reductions of 8% to 3.1%. Water loss was confirmed and it was possible to reduce seepage through LA-PAM applications provided that losses were known and correctly determined when applying the polymer. This could allow increasing irrigation security in critical periods, especially under drought conditions.

Keywords: canal seepage, irrigation, polyacrylamide, water management

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4314 Real-Time Classification of Hemodynamic Response by Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Using an Adaptive Estimation of General Linear Model Coefficients

Authors: Sahar Jahani, Meryem Ayse Yucel, David Boas, Seyed Kamaledin Setarehdan

Abstract:

Near-infrared spectroscopy allows monitoring of oxy- and deoxy-hemoglobin concentration changes associated with hemodynamic response function (HRF). HRF is usually affected by natural physiological hemodynamic (systemic interferences) which occur in all body tissues including brain tissue. This makes HRF extraction a very challenging task. In this study, we used Kalman filter based on a general linear model (GLM) of brain activity to define the proportion of systemic interference in the brain hemodynamic. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated in terms of the peak to peak error (Ep), mean square error (MSE), and Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R2) criteria between the estimated and the simulated hemodynamic responses. This technique also has the ability of real time estimation of single trial functional activations as it was applied to classify finger tapping versus resting state. The average real-time classification accuracy of 74% over 11 subjects demonstrates the feasibility of developing an effective functional near infrared spectroscopy for brain computer interface purposes (fNIRS-BCI).

Keywords: hemodynamic response function, functional near-infrared spectroscopy, adaptive filter, Kalman filter

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4313 Estimations of Spectral Dependence of Tropospheric Aerosol Single Scattering Albedo in Sukhothai, Thailand

Authors: Siriluk Ruangrungrote

Abstract:

Analyses of available data from MFR-7 measurement were performed and discussed on the study of tropospheric aerosol and its consequence in Thailand. Since, ASSA (w) is one of the most important parameters for a determination of aerosol effect on radioactive forcing. Here the estimation of w was directly determined in terms of the ratio of aerosol scattering optical depth to aerosol extinction optical depth (ωscat/ωext) without any utilization of aerosol computer code models. This is of benefit for providing the elimination of uncertainty causing by the modeling assumptions and the estimation of actual aerosol input data. Diurnal w of 5 cloudless-days in winter and early summer at 5 distinct wavelengths of 415, 500, 615, 673 and 870 nm with the consideration of Rayleigh scattering and atmospheric column NO2 and Ozone contents were investigated, respectively. Besides, the tendency of spectral dependence of ω representing two seasons was observed. The characteristic of spectral results reveals that during wintertime the atmosphere of the inland rural vicinity for the period of measurement possibly dominated with a lesser amount of soil dust aerosols loading than one in early summer. Hence, the major aerosol loading particularly in summer was subject to a mixture of both soil dust and biomass burning aerosols.

Keywords: aerosol scattering optical depth, aerosol extinction optical depth, biomass burning aerosol, soil dust aerosol

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4312 Corrosion Inhibition of Copper in 1M HNO3 Solution by Oleic Acid

Authors: S. Nigri, R. Oumeddour, F. Djazi

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The inhibition of the corrosion of copper in 1 M HNO3 solution by oleic acid was investigated by weight loss measurement, potentiodynamic polarization and scanning electron microscope (SEM) studies. The experimental results have showed that this compound revealed a good corrosion inhibition and the inhibition efficiency is increased with the inhibitor concentration to reach 98%. The results obtained revealed that the adsorption of the inhibitor molecule onto metal surface is found to obey Langmuir adsorption isotherm. The temperature effect on the corrosion behavior of copper in 1 M HNO3 without and with inhibitor at different concentration was studied in the temperature range from 303 to 333 K and the kinetic parameters activation such as Ea, ∆Ha and ∆Sa were evaluated. Tafel plot analysis revealed that oleic acid acts as a mixed type inhibitor. SEM analysis substantiated the formation of protective layer over the copper surface.

Keywords: oleic acid, weight loss, electrochemical measurement, SEM analysis

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4311 Detonalization of Punjabi: Towards a Loss of Linguistic Indigeneity

Authors: Sukhvinder Singh

Abstract:

Punjabi language is related to the languages of New Indo-Aryan group that, in turn, is related to the branch of Indo-European language family. Punjabi language covers the areas of Western part (that is in Pakistan) and Eastern part (the Punjab state, Haryana, Delhi Himachal and J&K) and abroad (particularly Canada, USA, U.K. and Arab Emirates), where it is spoken widely. Besides India and Pakistan, Punjabi is the third language spoken in Canada after English, French having more than one hundred millions speakers worldwide. It is the fourth language spoken in Canada after English, French, and Chinese. It is also being taught as second language in most of the community school of British Columbia. The total number of Punjabi speakers is more than one hundred millions including India, Pakistan and abroad. Punjabi has a long tradition of linguistic tradition. A large number of scholars have studied Punjabi at different linguistic levels. Various studies are devoted to its special phonological characteristics, especially the tone, which has now started disappearing in favour of aspiration, a rare example of a language change in progress in its reversal direction. This process of language change in progress in reversal is dealt with in this paper a change towards a loss of linguistic indigeneity. The tone being a distinctive linguistic feature of Punjabi language is getting lost due to the increasing influence of Hindi and English particularly in the speech Urban Punjabi and Punjabi settled abroad. In this paper, an attempt has been made to discuss the sociolinguistics and sociology of Punjabi language and Punjab to trace the initiation and progression of this change towards a loss of Linguistic Indigeneity.

Keywords: language change in reversal, reaspiration, detonalization, new Indo-Aryan group

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4310 A Study of Evaporative Heat Loss from the Skin of Baby Elephants (Elephas maximus maximus) at Elephant Transit Home

Authors: G .D. B. N. Kulasaooriya, H. B. S. Ariyarathne, I. Abeygunawardene, A. A. J. Rafarathne, B. V. Perera

Abstract:

Elephant is the largest resident of the wild and has small surface to volume ratio as well as less number of sweat glands which cause challenges to the thermoregulation of this mammal. However, this megaherbivore has adopted specialised meachanisms to maintain its thermal balance through behavioral adaptations, ear flapping and well anastomosed arterioles and venules of the ear. Nevertheless, little is known on the involvement of the skin in the process of thermoregulation. The present study was undertaken to monitor the water evaporation rate from the skin of unrestrained wild elephant calves throughout the day and to understand its importance in the thermoregulation. Seven baby elephants housed in the elephant transit home, Udawalawe were used. Ambient temparature, relative humidity (RH) and radiation heat load was monitored throughout the day of the study period. Similarly, surface temparature of the skin was taken at six points including lateral ear pinna, lateral body and the rump during the same period. The skin water evaporation was also measured from the same sites using cobolt chloride method. The surface are of the skin was determined by assigning geometrical shapes to each body part. The results showed that the ambient temperature gradually increased with the day reaching maximum around 3.00 pm. The relative humidity was lowest early in the morning. The radiation heat load did not show any significant change in the study period. The skin temperature was different among lateral ear pinna, lateral body and the rump where the highest temperature was on the rump and the lowest on the lateral ear pinna. The skin temperature gradually increase with increasing ambient temperature but there was not a strong correlation (R2 =53.53) between these two. The skin temperature had strong correlation with RH (p<0.05 R2 =70.84% ) but a significant relationship was not considered since the radiation heat load was not varying in large scale. The skin evaporative water loss had a weak negative correlation with ambient temperature (correlation coefficient= -0.01) whereas strong positive correlation with RH (correlation coefficient= 25.275 ) and no corelation with radiation heat load. It also appeared that skin water loss increases as the skin temperature increased. In the present study, it was observed that on average, skin of the baby elephant looses 403 g/m2/h of water. Based on these observations it can be concluded that a large volume of water is evaporated from the skin of baby elephants and evaporative heat loss may be contributing significantly to the thermoregulation. However, further investigation on the influence of environmental factors on evaporative heat loss has to be conducted to understand the thermoregulatory mechanisms of the baby elephant.

Keywords: thermoregulation, behavioral adaptations, evaporation, elephant

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4309 Prediction of Physical Properties and Sound Absorption Performance of Automotive Interior Materials

Authors: Un-Hwan Park, Jun-Hyeok Heo, In-Sung Lee, Seong-Jin Cho, Tae-Hyeon Oh, Dae-Kyu Park

Abstract:

Sound absorption coefficient is considered important when designing because noise affects emotion quality of car. It is designed with lots of experiment tunings in the field because it is unreliable to predict it for multi-layer material. In this paper, we present the design of sound absorption for automotive interior material with multiple layers using estimation software of sound absorption coefficient for reverberation chamber. Additionally, we introduce the method for estimation of physical properties required to predict sound absorption coefficient of car interior materials with multiple layers too. It is calculated by inverse algorithm. It is very economical to get information about physical properties without expensive equipment. Correlation test is carried out to ensure reliability for accuracy. The data to be used for the correlation is sound absorption coefficient measured in the reverberation chamber. In this way, it is considered economical and efficient to design automotive interior materials. And design optimization for sound absorption coefficient is also easy to implement when it is designed.

Keywords: sound absorption coefficient, optimization design, inverse algorithm, automotive interior material, multiple layers nonwoven, scaled reverberation chamber, sound impedance tubes

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4308 Political Deprivations, Political Risk and the Extent of Skilled Labor Migration from Pakistan: Finding of a Time-Series Analysis

Authors: Syed Toqueer Akhter, Hussain Hamid

Abstract:

Over the last few decades an upward trend has been observed in the case of labor migration from Pakistan. The emigrants are not just economically motivated and in search of a safe living environment towards more developed countries in Europe, North America and Middle East. The opportunity cost of migration comes in the form of brain drain that is the loss of qualified and skilled human capital. Throughout the history of Pakistan, situations of political instability have emerged ranging from violation of political rights, political disappearances to political assassinations. Providing security to the citizens is a major issue faced in Pakistan due to increase in crime and terrorist activities. The aim of the study is to test the impact of political instability, appearing in the form of political terror, violation of political rights and civil liberty on skilled migration of labor. Three proxies are used to measure the political instability; political terror scale (based on a scale of 1-5, the political terror and violence that a country encounters in a particular year), political rights (a rating of 1-7, that describes political rights as the ability for the people to participate without restraint in political process) and civil liberty (a rating of 1-7, civil liberty is defined as the freedom of expression and rights without government intervention). Using time series data from 1980-2011, the distributed lag models were used for estimation because migration is not a onetime process, previous events and migration can lead to more migration. Our research clearly shows that political instability appearing in the form of political terror, political rights and civil liberty all appeared significant in explaining the extent of skilled migration of Pakistan.

Keywords: skilled labor migration, political terror, political rights, civil liberty, distributed lag model

Procedia PDF Downloads 1009
4307 Analysis of Translational Ship Oscillations in a Realistic Environment

Authors: Chen Zhang, Bernhard Schwarz-Röhr, Alexander Härting

Abstract:

To acquire accurate ship motions at the center of gravity, a single low-cost inertial sensor is utilized and applied on board to measure ship oscillating motions. As observations, the three axes accelerations and three axes rotational rates provided by the sensor are used. The mathematical model of processing the observation data includes determination of the distance vector between the sensor and the center of gravity in x, y, and z directions. After setting up the transfer matrix from sensor’s own coordinate system to the ship’s body frame, an extended Kalman filter is applied to deal with nonlinearities between the ship motion in the body frame and the observation information in the sensor’s frame. As a side effect, the method eliminates sensor noise and other unwanted errors. Results are not only roll and pitch, but also linear motions, in particular heave and surge at the center of gravity. For testing, we resort to measurements recorded on a small vessel in a well-defined sea state. With response amplitude operators computed numerically by a commercial software (Seaway), motion characteristics are estimated. These agree well with the measurements after processing with the suggested method.

Keywords: extended Kalman filter, nonlinear estimation, sea trial, ship motion estimation

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4306 Modulation of Isoprenaline-Induced Myocardial Damage by Atorvastatin

Authors: Dalia Atallah, Lamiaa Ahmed, Hala Zaki, Mahmoud Khattab

Abstract:

Background: Isoprenaline (ISO) administration induces myocardial damage via oxidative stress and endothelial dysfunction. Atorvastatin (ATV) treatment improves both oxidative stress and endothelial dysfunction yet recent studies have reported a pro-oxidant effect upon ATV administration on both clinical and experimental studies. The present study was directed to investigate the effect of ATV pre-treatment and treatment on ISO-induced myocardial damage. Methods: Male rats were divided into five groups (n = 10). Rats were given ISO (5mg/kg/day, i.p.) for one week with or without ATV (10mg/kg/day, p.o.). ATV was given either as pre-treatment for one week before its co-administration with ISO for another week or as a treatment for two weeks at the end of the ISO administration. At the end of the experiment, the electrocardiographic examination was done and blood was isolated for the estimation of plasma creatine kinase MB (CK-MB) activity. Rats were then sacrificed and the whole ventricles were isolated for histological examination and the estimation of lipid peroxides as malondialdehyde (MDA) level, reduced glutathione (GSH) level, catalase activity, total nitrate-nitrite (NOx), as well as the estimation of both endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) and inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) protein expression. Results: ISO-induced myocardial damage showed a significant elevation in ST segment, an increase in CK-MB activity, as well as increased oxidative stress biomarkers. Also, ISO-treated rats showed a significant decrease in myocardial NOx level and eNOS as well as degeneration in the myocardium. ATV pre-treatment didn’t show any protection to ISO-treated rats. On the other hand, ATV treatment showed a significant decrease in both the elevated ST wave and CK-MB activity. Moreover, ATV Treatment succeeded to improve oxidative stress biomarkers, tissue NOx, and eNOS protein expression, as well as amelioration of the histological alterations. Conclusion: Pre-treatment with ATV failed to protect against ISO-induced damage. This might suggest a synergistic pro-oxidant effect upon administration of the pro-oxidant ISO along with ATV as demonstrated by the increased oxidative stress and endothelial dysfunction. On the other side, ATV treatment succeeded to significantly improve oxidative stress biomarkers, endothelial dysfunction and myocardial degeneration.

Keywords: atorvastatin, endothelial dysfunction, isoprenaline, oxidative stress

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4305 Analysis of Two Methods to Estimation Stochastic Demand in the Vehicle Routing Problem

Authors: Fatemeh Torfi

Abstract:

Estimation of stochastic demand in physical distribution in general and efficient transport routs management in particular is emerging as a crucial factor in urban planning domain. It is particularly important in some municipalities such as Tehran where a sound demand management calls for a realistic analysis of the routing system. The methodology involved critically investigating a fuzzy least-squares linear regression approach (FLLRs) to estimate the stochastic demands in the vehicle routing problem (VRP) bearing in mind the customer's preferences order. A FLLR method is proposed in solving the VRP with stochastic demands. Approximate-distance fuzzy least-squares (ADFL) estimator ADFL estimator is applied to original data taken from a case study. The SSR values of the ADFL estimator and real demand are obtained and then compared to SSR values of the nominal demand and real demand. Empirical results showed that the proposed methods can be viable in solving problems under circumstances of having vague and imprecise performance ratings. The results further proved that application of the ADFL was realistic and efficient estimator to face the stochastic demand challenges in vehicle routing system management and solve relevant problems.

Keywords: fuzzy least-squares, stochastic, location, routing problems

Procedia PDF Downloads 409