Search results for: deformable part model
21662 Media Richness Perspective on Web 2.0 Usage for Knowledge Creation: The Case of the Cocoa Industry in Ghana
Authors: Albert Gyamfi
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Cocoa plays critical role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. Meanwhile, smallholder farmers most of whom are illiterate dominate the industry. According to the cocoa-based agricultural knowledge and information system (AKIS) model knowledge is created and transferred to the industry between three key actors: cocoa researchers, extension experts, and cocoa farmers. Dwelling on the SECI model, the media richness theory (MRT), and the AKIS model, a conceptual model of web 2.0-based AKIS model (AKIS 2.0) is developed and used to assess the possible effects of social media usage for knowledge creation in the Ghanaian cocoa industry. A mixed method approach with a survey questionnaire was employed, and a second-order multi-group structural equation model (SEM) was used to analyze the data. The study concludes that the use of web 2.0 applications for knowledge creation would lead to sustainable interactions among the key knowledge actors for effective knowledge creation in the cocoa industry in Ghana.Keywords: agriculture, cocoa, knowledge, media, web 2.0
Procedia PDF Downloads 33521661 Artificial Neural Network Based Approach for Estimation of Individual Vehicle Speed under Mixed Traffic Condition
Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh
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Developing speed model is a challenging task particularly under mixed traffic condition where the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining vehicular speed. The present research has been conducted to model individual vehicular speed in the context of mixed traffic on an urban arterial. Traffic speed and volume data have been collected from three midblock arterial road sections in New Delhi. Using the field data, a volume based speed prediction model has been developed adopting the methodology of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model developed in this work is capable of estimating speed for individual vehicle category. Validation results show a great deal of agreement between the observed speeds and the predicted values by the model developed. Also, it has been observed that the ANN based model performs better compared to other existing models in terms of accuracy. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has been performed utilizing the model in order to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on individual speeds.Keywords: speed model, artificial neural network, arterial, mixed traffic
Procedia PDF Downloads 38921660 Personalized Infectious Disease Risk Prediction System: A Knowledge Model
Authors: Retno A. Vinarti, Lucy M. Hederman
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This research describes a knowledge model for a system which give personalized alert to users about infectious disease risks in the context of weather, location and time. The knowledge model is based on established epidemiological concepts augmented by information gleaned from infection-related data repositories. The existing disease risk prediction research has more focuses on utilizing raw historical data and yield seasonal patterns of infectious disease risk emergence. This research incorporates both data and epidemiological concepts gathered from Atlas of Human Infectious Disease (AHID) and Centre of Disease Control (CDC) as basic reasoning of infectious disease risk prediction. Using CommonKADS methodology, the disease risk prediction task is an assignment synthetic task, starting from knowledge identification through specification, refinement to implementation. First, knowledge is gathered from AHID primarily from the epidemiology and risk group chapters for each infectious disease. The result of this stage is five major elements (Person, Infectious Disease, Weather, Location and Time) and their properties. At the knowledge specification stage, the initial tree model of each element and detailed relationships are produced. This research also includes a validation step as part of knowledge refinement: on the basis that the best model is formed using the most common features, Frequency-based Selection (FBS) is applied. The portion of the Infectious Disease risk model relating to Person comes out strongest, with Location next, and Weather weaker. For Person attribute, Age is the strongest, Activity and Habits are moderate, and Blood type is weakest. At the Location attribute, General category (e.g. continents, region, country, and island) results much stronger than Specific category (i.e. terrain feature). For Weather attribute, Less Precise category (i.e. season) comes out stronger than Precise category (i.e. exact temperature or humidity interval). However, given that some infectious diseases are significantly more serious than others, a frequency based metric may not be appropriate. Future work will incorporate epidemiological measurements of disease seriousness (e.g. odds ratio, hazard ratio and fatality rate) into the validation metrics. This research is limited to modelling existing knowledge about epidemiology and chain of infection concepts. Further step, verification in knowledge refinement stage, might cause some minor changes on the shape of tree.Keywords: epidemiology, knowledge modelling, infectious disease, prediction, risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 24221659 Localisation of Fluorescently Labelled Drug-Free Phospholipid Vesicles to the Cartilage Surface of Rat Synovial Joints
Authors: Sam Yurdakul, Nick Baverstock, Jim Mills
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TDT 064 (FLEXISEQ®) is a drug-free gel used to treat osteoarthritis (OA)-associated pain and joint stiffness. It contains ultra-deformable phospholipid Sequessome™ vesicles, which can pass through the skin barrier intact. In six randomized OA studies, topical TDT 064 was well tolerated and improved joint pain, physical function and stiffness. In the largest study, these TDT 064-mediated effects were statistically significantly greater than oral placebo and equivalent to celecoxib. To understand the therapeutic effects of TDT 064, we investigated the localisation of the drug-free vesicles within rat synovial joints. TDT 064 containing DiO-labelled Sequessome™ vesicles was applied to the knees of four 6-week-old CD® hairless rats (10 mg/kg/ joint), 2–3 times/day, for 3 days (representing the recommended clinical dose). Eighteen hours later, the animals and one untreated control were sacrificed, and the knee joints isolated, flash frozen and embedded in Acrytol Mounting Media™. Approximately 15 sections (10 µm) from each joint were analysed by fluorescence microscopy. To investigate whether the localisation of DiO fluorescence was associated with intact vesicles, an anti-PEG monoclonal antibody (mAb) was used to detect Tween, a constituent of Sequessome™ vesicles. Sections were visualized at 484 nm (DiO) and 647 nm (anti-PEG mAb) and analysed using inForm 1.4 (Perkin Elmer, Inc.). Significant fluorescence was observed at 484 nm in sections from TDT 064-treated animals. No non-specific fluorescence was observed in control sections. Fluorescence was detected as discrete vesicles on the cartilage surfaces, inside the cartilaginous matrix and within the synovial space. The number of DiO-labelled vesicles in multiple fields of view was consistent and >100 in sections from four different treated knees. DiO and anti-PEG mAb co-localised within the collagenous tissues in four different joint sections. Under higher magnification (40x), vesicles were seen in the intercellular spaces of the synovial joint tissue, but no fluorescence was seen inside cells. These data suggest that the phospholipid vesicles in TDT 064 localize at the surface of the joint cartilage; these vesicles may therefore be supplementing the phospholipid deficiency reported in OA and acting as a biolubricant within the synovial joint.Keywords: joint pain, osteoarthritis, phospholipid vesicles, TDT 064
Procedia PDF Downloads 44421658 A Novel Approach to 3D Thrust Vectoring CFD via Mesh Morphing
Authors: Umut Yıldız, Berkin Kurtuluş, Yunus Emre Muslubaş
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Thrust vectoring, especially in military aviation, is a concept that sees much use to improve maneuverability in already agile aircraft. As this concept is fairly new and cost intensive to design and test, computational methods are useful in easing the preliminary design process. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) can be utilized in many forms to simulate nozzle flow, and there exist various CFD studies in both 2D mechanical and 3D injection based thrust vectoring, and yet, 3D mechanical thrust vectoring analyses, at this point in time, are lacking variety. Additionally, the freely available test data is constrained to limited pitch angles and geometries. In this study, based on a test case provided by NASA, both steady and unsteady 3D CFD simulations are conducted to examine the aerodynamic performance of a mechanical thrust vectoring nozzle model and to validate the utilized numerical model. Steady analyses are performed to verify the flow characteristics of the nozzle at pitch angles of 0, 10 and 20 degrees, and the results are compared with experimental data. It is observed that the pressure data obtained on the inner surface of the nozzle at each specified pitch angle and under different flow conditions with pressure ratios of 1.5, 2 and 4, as well as at azimuthal angle of 0, 45, 90, 135, and 180 degrees exhibited a high level of agreement with the corresponding experimental results. To validate the CFD model, the insights from the steady analyses are utilized, followed by unsteady analyses covering a wide range of pitch angles from 0 to 20 degrees. Throughout the simulations, a mesh morphing method using a carefully calculated mathematical shape deformation model that simulates the vectored nozzle shape exactly at each point of its travel is employed to dynamically alter the divergent part of the nozzle over time within this pitch angle range. The mesh morphing based vectored nozzle shapes were compared with the drawings provided by NASA, ensuring a complete match was achieved. This computational approach allowed for the creation of a comprehensive database of results without the need to generate separate solution domains. The database contains results at every 0.01° increment of nozzle pitch angle. The unsteady analyses, generated using the morphing method, are found to be in excellent agreement with experimental data, further confirming the accuracy of the CFD model.Keywords: thrust vectoring, computational fluid dynamics, 3d mesh morphing, mathematical shape deformation model
Procedia PDF Downloads 8521657 Modeling Heat-Related Mortality Based on Greenhouse Emissions in OECD Countries
Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru
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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD
Procedia PDF Downloads 34521656 Design Channel Non Persistent CSMA MAC Protocol Model for Complex Wireless Systems Based on SoC
Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa
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This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication model based on SoC design methodology. Such model can be used to support the modelling of the complex wireless communication systems, therefore use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).Keywords: systemC, modelling, simulation, CSMA
Procedia PDF Downloads 42821655 A Deep Learning Based Integrated Model For Spatial Flood Prediction
Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath
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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding
Procedia PDF Downloads 14921654 Model of Transhipment and Routing Applied to the Cargo Sector in Small and Medium Enterprises of Bogotá, Colombia
Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca
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This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.Keywords: transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation
Procedia PDF Downloads 23321653 Unified Structured Process for Health Analytics
Authors: Supunmali Ahangama, Danny Chiang Choon Poo
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Health analytics (HA) is used in healthcare systems for effective decision-making, management, and planning of healthcare and related activities. However, user resistance, the unique position of medical data content, and structure (including heterogeneous and unstructured data) and impromptu HA projects have held up the progress in HA applications. Notably, the accuracy of outcomes depends on the skills and the domain knowledge of the data analyst working on the healthcare data. The success of HA depends on having a sound process model, effective project management and availability of supporting tools. Thus, to overcome these challenges through an effective process model, we propose an HA process model with features from the rational unified process (RUP) model and agile methodology.Keywords: agile methodology, health analytics, unified process model, UML
Procedia PDF Downloads 50721652 Transition from Linear to Circular Business Models with Service Design Methodology
Authors: Minna-Maari Harmaala, Hanna Harilainen
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Estimates of the economic value of transitioning to circular economy models vary but it has been estimated to represent $1 trillion worth of new business into the global economy. In Europe alone, estimates claim that adopting circular-economy principles could not only have environmental and social benefits but also generate a net economic benefit of €1.8 trillion by 2030. Proponents of a circular economy argue that it offers a major opportunity to increase resource productivity, decrease resource dependence and waste, and increase employment and growth. A circular system could improve competitiveness and unleash innovation. Yet, most companies are not capturing these opportunities and thus the even abundant circular opportunities remain uncaptured even though they would seem inherently profitable. Service design in broad terms relates to developing an existing or a new service or service concept with emphasis and focus on the customer experience from the onset of the development process. Service design may even mean starting from scratch and co-creating the service concept entirely with the help of customer involvement. Service design methodologies provide a structured way of incorporating customer understanding and involvement in the process of designing better services with better resonance to customer needs. A business model is a depiction of how the company creates, delivers, and captures value; i.e. how it organizes its business. The process of business model development and adjustment or modification is also called business model innovation. Innovating business models has become a part of business strategy. Our hypothesis is that in addition to linear models still being easier to adopt and often with lower threshold costs, companies lack an understanding of how circular models can be adopted into their business and how customers will be willing and ready to adopt the new circular business models. In our research, we use robust service design methodology to develop circular economy solutions with two case study companies. The aim of the process is to not only develop the service concepts and portfolio, but to demonstrate the willingness to adopt circular solutions exists in the customer base. In addition to service design, we employ business model innovation methods to develop, test, and validate the new circular business models further. The results clearly indicate that amongst the customer groups there are specific customer personas that are willing to adopt and in fact are expecting the companies to take a leading role in the transition towards a circular economy. At the same time, there is a group of indifferents, to whom the idea of circularity provides no added value. In addition, the case studies clearly show what changes adoption of circular economy principles brings to the existing business model and how they can be integrated.Keywords: business model innovation, circular economy, circular economy business models, service design
Procedia PDF Downloads 13621651 Social Work Practice to Labour Welfare: A Proposed Model of Field Work Practicum and Role of Social Worker in India
Authors: Naeem Ahmed
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Social work is a professional activity based on the approach of “helping people to help themselves” (Stroup). Social work education and practice both are based on humanitarian philosophy in which social workers try to increase the happiness of the society and to reduce the problems of society. Labour welfare is a specialised field of social work which especially focuses on welfare of organised and unorganised labour. In India labour is facing numerous problems in both organised and unorganised sectors because of ignorance, illiteracy, high rate of unemployment etc. In most of the Indian social work institutions we have this specialization with different names like Human Resource Management or Industrial Relation and Personnel Management or Industrial Relations and Labour Welfare or Industrial Social Work etc. Field work practice is integrated part of social work education curriculum in all specialised field. In India we have different field work practice models being followed in different institutions. The main objective of this paper is to prepare a universal field work practicum model in the field of labour welfare. This paper is exploratory in nature, researcher used personal experience and secondary data (model of field work practice in different institutions like Aligarh Muslim University, Pondicherry University, Central University of Karnataka, University of Lucknow, MJP Rohilkhand University Bareilly etc.) Researcher found that there is an immediate need to upgrade the curriculum or field work practice in this particular field, as more than 40 percent of total population engaged in either unorganised or organised sector (NSSO 2011-12) and they are not aware about their rights. In this way a social worker can play an important role in existing labour welfare facilities by making them aware.Keywords: field work, labour welfare, organised labour, social work practice, unorganised labour
Procedia PDF Downloads 40221650 Analysis of the Temperature Dependence of Local Avalanche Compact Model for Bipolar Transistors
Authors: Robert Setekera, Ramses van der Toorn
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We present an extensive analysis of the temperature dependence of the local avalanche model used in most of the modern compact models for bipolar transistors. This local avalanche model uses the Chynoweth's empirical law for ionization coefficient to define the generation of the avalanche current in terms of the local electric field. We carry out the model analysis using DC-measurements taken on both Si and advanced SiGe bipolar transistors. For the advanced industrial SiGe-HBTs, we consider both high-speed and high-power devices (both NPN and PNP transistors). The limitations of the local avalanche model in modeling the temperature dependence of the avalanche current mostly in the weak avalanche region are demonstrated. In addition, the model avalanche parameters are analyzed to see if they are in agreement with semiconductor device physics.Keywords: avalanche multiplication, avalanche current, bipolar transistors, compact modeling, electric field, impact ionization, local avalanche
Procedia PDF Downloads 62321649 The Application of the Security Audit Method on the Selected Objects of Critical Infrastructure
Authors: Michaela Vašková
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The paper is focused on the application of the security audit method on the selected objects of the critical infrastructure. The emphasis is put on security audit method to find gaps in the critical infrastructure security. The theoretical part describes objects of the critical infrastructure. The practical part describes using the security audit method. The main emphasis was put on the protection of the critical infrastructure in the Czech Republic.Keywords: crisis management, critical infrastructure, object of critical infrastructure, security audit, extraordinary event
Procedia PDF Downloads 43121648 Special Case of Trip Distribution Model and Its Use for Estimation of Detailed Transport Demand in the Czech Republic
Authors: Jiri Dufek
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The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities
Procedia PDF Downloads 13121647 Forecasting Unemployment Rate in Selected European Countries Using Smoothing Methods
Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk
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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate
Procedia PDF Downloads 36921646 Simulation of Flow Patterns in Vertical Slot Fishway with Cylindrical Obstacles
Authors: Mohsen Solimani Babarsad, Payam Taheri
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Numerical results of vertical slot fishways with and without cylinders study are presented. The simulated results and the measured data in the fishways are compared to validate the application of the model. This investigation is made using FLUENT V.6.3, a Computational Fluid Dynamics solver. Advantages of using these types of numerical tools are the possibility of avoiding the St.-Venant equations’ limitations, and turbulence can be modeled by means of different models such as the k-ε model. In general, the present study has demonstrated that the CFD model could be useful for analysis and design of vertical slot fishways with cylinders.Keywords: slot Fish-way, CFD, k-ε model, St.-Venant equations’
Procedia PDF Downloads 36421645 Comparison of Unit Hydrograph Models to Simulate Flood Events at the Field Scale
Authors: Imene Skhakhfa, Lahbaci Ouerdachi
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To ensure the overall coherence of simulated results, it is necessary to develop a robust validation process. In many applications, it is no longer content to calibrate and validate the model only in relation to the hydro graph measured at the outlet, but we try to better simulate the functioning of the watershed in space. Therefore the timing also performs compared to other variables such as water level measurements in intermediate stations or groundwater levels. As part of this work, we limit ourselves to modeling flood of short duration for which the process of evapotranspiration is negligible. The main parameters to identify the models are related to the method of unit hydro graph (HU). Three different models were tested: SNYDER, CLARK and SCS. These models differ in their mathematical structure and parameters to be calibrated while hydrological data are the same, the initial water content and precipitation. The models are compared on the basis of their performance in terms six objective criteria, three global criteria and three criteria representing volume, peak flow, and the mean square error. The first type of criteria gives more weight to strong events whereas the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results show that the calibrated parameter values are dependent and also highlight the problems associated with the simulation of low flow events and intermittent precipitation.Keywords: model calibration, intensity, runoff, hydrograph
Procedia PDF Downloads 48621644 Estimation of Effective Mechanical Properties of Linear Elastic Materials with Voids Due to Volume and Surface Defects
Authors: Sergey A. Lurie, Yury O. Solyaev, Dmitry B. Volkov-Bogorodsky, Alexander V. Volkov
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The media with voids is considered and the method of the analytical estimation of the effective mechanical properties in the theory of elastic materials with voids is proposed. The variational model of the porous media is discussed, which is based on the model of the media with fields of conserved dislocations. It is shown that this model is fully consistent with the known model of the linear elastic materials with voids. In the present work, the generalized model of the porous media is proposed in which the specific surface properties are associated with the field of defects-pores in the volume of the deformed body. Unlike typical surface elasticity model, the strain energy density of the considered model includes the special part of the surface energy with the quadratic form of the free distortion tensor. In the result, the non-classical boundary conditions take modified form of the balance equations of volume and surface stresses. The analytical approach is proposed in the present work which allows to receive the simple enough engineering estimations for effective characteristics of the media with free dilatation. In particular, the effective flexural modulus and Poisson's ratio are determined for the problem of a beam pure bending. Here, the known voids elasticity solution was expanded on the generalized model with the surface effects. Received results allow us to compare the deformed state of the porous beam with the equivalent classic beam to introduce effective bending rigidity. Obtained analytical expressions for the effective properties depend on the thickness of the beam as a parameter. It is shown that the flexural modulus of the porous beam is decreased with an increasing of its thickness and the effective Poisson's ratio of the porous beams can take negative values for the certain values of the model parameters. On the other hand, the effective shear modulus is constant under variation of all values of the non-classical model parameters. Solutions received for a beam pure bending and the hydrostatic loading of the porous media are compared. It is shown that an analytical estimation for the bulk modulus of the porous material under hydrostatic compression gives an asymptotic value for the effective bulk modulus of the porous beam in the case of beam thickness increasing. Additionally, it is shown that the scale effects appear due to the surface properties of the porous media. Obtained results allow us to offer the procedure of an experimental identification of the non-classical parameters in the theory of the linear elastic materials with voids based on the bending tests for samples with different thickness. Finally, the problem of implementation of the Saint-Venant hypothesis for the transverse stresses in the porous beam are discussed. These stresses are different from zero in the solution of the voids elasticity theory, but satisfy the integral equilibrium equations. In this work, the exact value of the introduced surface parameter was found, which provides the vanishing of the transverse stresses on the free surfaces of a beam.Keywords: effective properties, scale effects, surface defects, voids elasticity
Procedia PDF Downloads 42221643 Reworking of the Anomalies in the Discounted Utility Model as a Combination of Cognitive Bias and Decrease in Impatience: Decision Making in Relation to Bounded Rationality and Emotional Factors in Intertemporal Choices
Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre
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Every day we face choices whose consequences are deferred in time. These types of choices are the intertemporal choices and play an important role in the social, economic, and financial world. The Discounted Utility Model is the mathematical model of reference to calculate the utility of intertemporal prospects. The discount rate is the main element of the model as it describes how the individual perceives the indeterminacy of subsequent periods. Empirical evidence has shown a discrepancy between the behavior expected from the predictions of the model and the effective choices made from the decision makers. In particular, the term temporal inconsistency indicates those choices that do not remain optimal with the passage of time. This phenomenon has been described with hyperbolic models of the discount rate which, unlike the linear or exponential nature assumed by the discounted utility model, is not constant over time. This paper explores the problem of inconsistency by tracing the decision-making process through the concept of impatience. The degree of impatience and the degree of decrease of impatience are two parameters that allow to quantify the weight of emotional factors and cognitive limitations during the evaluation and selection of alternatives. In fact, although the theory assumes perfectly rational decision makers, behavioral finance and cognitive psychology have made it possible to understand that distortions in the decision-making process and emotional influence have an inevitable impact on the decision-making process. The degree to which impatience is diminished is the focus of the first part of the study. By comparing consistent and inconsistent preferences over time, it was possible to verify that some anomalies in the discounted utility model are a result of the combination of cognitive bias and emotional factors. In particular: the delay effect and the interval effect are compared through the concept of misperception of time; starting from psychological considerations, a criterion is proposed to identify the causes of the magnitude effect that considers the differences in outcomes rather than their ratio; the sign effect is analyzed by integrating in the evaluation of prospects with negative outcomes the psychological aspects of loss aversion provided by Prospect Theory. An experiment implemented confirms three findings: the greatest variation in the degree of decrease in impatience corresponds to shorter intervals close to the present; the greatest variation in the degree of impatience occurs for outcomes of lower magnitude; the variation in the degree of impatience is greatest for negative outcomes. The experimental phase was implemented with the construction of the hyperbolic factor through the administration of questionnaires constructed for each anomaly. This work formalizes the underlying causes of the discrepancy between the discounted utility model and the empirical evidence of preference reversal.Keywords: decreasing impatience, discount utility model, hyperbolic discount, hyperbolic factor, impatience
Procedia PDF Downloads 10321642 Designing Equivalent Model of Floating Gate Transistor
Authors: Birinderjit Singh Kalyan, Inderpreet Kaur, Balwinder Singh Sohi
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In this paper, an equivalent model for floating gate transistor has been proposed. Using the floating gate voltage value, capacitive coupling coefficients has been found at different bias conditions. The amount of charge present on the gate has been then calculated using the transient models of hot electron programming and Fowler-Nordheim Tunnelling. The proposed model can be extended to the transient conditions as well. The SPICE equivalent model is designed and current-voltage characteristics and Transfer characteristics are comparatively analysed. The dc current-voltage characteristics, as well as dc transfer characteristics, have been plotted for an FGMOS with W/L=0.25μm/0.375μm, the inter-poly capacitance of 0.8fF for both programmed and erased states. The Comparative analysis has been made between the present model and capacitive coefficient coupling methods which were already available.Keywords: FGMOS, floating gate transistor, capacitive coupling coefficient, SPICE model
Procedia PDF Downloads 54521641 Expression of Selected miRNAs in Placenta of the Intrauterine Restricted Growth Fetuses in Cattle
Authors: Karolina Rutkowska, Hubert Pausch, Jolanta Oprzadek, Krzysztof Flisikowski
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The placenta is one of the most important organs that plays a crucial role in the fetal growth and development. Placenta dysfunction is one of the primary cause of the intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). Cattle have the cotyledonary placenta which consists of two anatomical parts: fetal and maternal. In the case of cattle during the first months of pregnancy, it is very easy to separate maternal caruncle from fetal cotyledon tissue, easier in fact than removing an ordinary glove from one's hand. Which in fact make easier to conduct tissue-specific molecular studies. Typically, animal models for the study of IUGR are created using surgical methods and malnutrition of the pregnant mother or in the case of mice by genetic modifications. However, proposed cattle model with MIMT1Del/WT deletion is unique because it was created without any surgical methods what significantly distinguish it from the other animal models. The primary objective of the study was to identify differential expression of selected miRNAs in the placenta from normal and intrauterine growth restricted fetuses. There was examined the expression of miRNA in the fetal and maternal part of the placenta from 24 fetuses (12 samples from the fetal part of the placenta and 12 samples from maternal part of the placenta). In the study, there was done miRNAs sequencing in the placenta of MIMT1Del/WT fetuses and MIMT1WT/WT fetuses. Then, there were selected miRNAs that are involved in fetal growth and development. Analysis of miRNAs expression was conducted on ABI7500 machine. miRNAs expression was analyzed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). As the reference gene was used SNORD47. The results were expressed as 2ΔΔCt: ΔΔCt = (Ctij − CtSNORD47j) − (Cti1 − CtSNORD471). Where Ctij and CtSNORD47j are the Ct values for gene i and for SNORD47 in a sample (named j); Cti1 and CtSNORD471 are the Ct values in sample 1. Differences between groups were evaluated with analysis of variance by using One-Way ANOVA. Bonferroni’s tests were used for interpretation of the data. All normalised miRNA expression values are expressed on a value of natural logarithm. The data were expressed as least squares mean with standard errors. Significance was declared when P < 0.05. The study shows that miRNAs expression depends on the part of the placenta where they origin (fetal or maternal) and on the genotype of the animal. miRNAs offer a particularly new approach to study IUGR. Corresponding tissue samples were collected according to the standard veterinary protocols according to the European Union Normative for Care and Use of Experimental Animals. All animal experiments were approved by the Animal Ethics Committee of the State Provincial Office of Southern Finland (ESAVI-2010-08583/YM-23).Keywords: placenta, intrauterine growth restriction, miRNA, cattle
Procedia PDF Downloads 31421640 Creating Gameful Experience as an Innovative Approach in the Digital Era: A Double-Mediation Model of Instructional Support, Group Engagement and Flow
Authors: Mona Hoyng
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In times of digitalization nowadays, the use of games became a crucial new way for digital game-based learning (DGBL) in higher education. In this regard, the development of a gameful experience (GE) among students is decisive when examining DGBL as the GE is a necessary precondition determining the effectiveness of games. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide deeper insights into the GE and to empirically investigate whether and how these meaningful learning experiences within games, i.e., GE, among students are created. Based on the theory of experience and flow theory, a double-mediation model was developed considering instructional support, group engagement, and flow as determinants of students’ GE. Based on data of 337 students taking part in a business simulation game at two different universities in Germany, regression-based statistical mediation analysis revealed that instructional support promoted students’ GE. This relationship was further sequentially double mediated by group engagement and flow. Consequently, in the context of DGBL, meaningful learning experiences within games in terms of GE are created and promoted through appropriate instructional support, as well as high levels of group engagement and flow among students.Keywords: gameful experience, instructional support, group engagement, flow, education, learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 13621639 Effects of Merging Personal and Social Responsibility with Sports Education Model on Students' Game Performance and Responsibility
Authors: Yi-Hsiang Pan, Chen-Hui Huang, Wei-Ting Hsu
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The purposes of the study were to understand these topics as follows: 1. To explore the effect of merging teaching personal and social responsibility (TPSR) with sports education model on students' game performance and responsibility. 2. To explore the effect of sports education model on students' game performance and responsibility. 3. To compare the difference between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" on students' game performance and responsibility. The participants include three high school physical education teachers and six physical education classes. Every teacher teaches an experimental group and a control group. The participants had 121 students, including 65 students in the experimental group and 56 students in the control group. The research methods had game performance assessment, questionnaire investigation, interview, focus group meeting. The research instruments include personal and social responsibility questionnaire and game performance assessment instrument. Paired t-test test and MANCOVA were used to test the difference between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" on students' learning performance. 1) "Merging TPSR with sports education model" showed significant improvements in students' game performance, and responsibilities with self-direction, helping others, cooperation. 2) "Sports education model" also had significant improvements in students' game performance, and responsibilities with effort, self-direction, helping others. 3.) There was no significant difference in game performance and responsibilities between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model". 4)."Merging TPSR with sports education model" significantly improve learning atmosphere and peer relationships, it may be developed in the physical education curriculum. The conclusions were as follows: Both "Merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" can help improve students' responsibility and game performance. However, "Merging TPSR with sports education model" can reduce the competitive atmosphere in highly intensive games between students. The curricular projects of hybrid TPSR-Sport Education model is a good approach for moral character education.Keywords: curriculum and teaching model, sports self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic, character education
Procedia PDF Downloads 31321638 The Need for Innovation Management in the Context of Integrated Management Systems
Authors: Adela Mariana Vadastreanu, Adrian Bot, Andreea Maier, Dorin Maier
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This paper approaches the need for innovation management in the context of an existing integrated management system implemented in an organization. The road to success for companies in today’s economic environment is more demanding than ever and the capacity of adapting to the rapid changes is compensatory in order to resist on the market. The managers struggle, daily, with increasingly complex problems, caused by fierce competition in the market but also from the rising demands of customers. Innovation seems to be the solution for these problems. During the last decade almost all companies have been certificated according to various management systems, like quality management system, environmental management system, health and safety management system and others; furthermore many companies have implemented an integrated management system, by integrating two or more management systems. The problem rising today is how to integrate innovation in this integrated management systems. The challenge of the problem is that the development of an innovation management system is in the early phase. In this paper we have studied the possibility of integrating some of the innovation request in an existing management system, we have identify the innovation performance request and we proposed some recommendations regarding innovation management and its implementation as a part of an integrated management system. This paper lies down the bases for developing an model of integration management systems that include innovation as a main part of it. Organizations are becoming more aware of the importance of Integrated Management Systems (IMS). Integrating two or more management systems into an integrated management system can have much advantages.This paper examines various models of management systems integration in accordance with professional references ISO 9001, ISO 18001 and OHSAS 18001, highlighting strengths and weaknesses, creating a basis for future development of integrated management systems, and their involvement in various other processes within the organization, such as innovation management. The more and more demanding economic context emphasizes the awareness of the importance of innovation for organizations. This paper highlights the importance of the innovation for an organization and also gives some practical solution in order to improve the overall success of the business through a better approach of innovation. Various standards have been developed in order to certificate organizations that they respect the requirements. Applying an integrated standards model is shown to be a more effective way then applying the standards independently. The problem that arises is that in order to adopt the integrated version of standards there have to be made some changes at the organizational level. Every change that needs to be done has an effect on its activity, and in this sense the paper tries to deal with the changes needed for adopting an integrated management system and if those changes have an influence over the performance. After the analysis of the results, we can conclude that in order to improve the performance a necessary step is the implementation of innovation in the existing integrated management system.Keywords: innovation, integrated management systems, innovation management, quality
Procedia PDF Downloads 31621637 New Estimation in Autoregressive Models with Exponential White Noise by Using Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm
Authors: Suparman Suparman
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A white noise in autoregressive (AR) model is often assumed to be normally distributed. In application, the white noise usually do not follows a normal distribution. This paper aims to estimate a parameter of AR model that has a exponential white noise. A Bayesian method is adopted. A prior distribution of the parameter of AR model is selected and then this prior distribution is combined with a likelihood function of data to get a posterior distribution. Based on this posterior distribution, a Bayesian estimator for the parameter of AR model is estimated. Because the order of AR model is considered a parameter, this Bayesian estimator cannot be explicitly calculated. To resolve this problem, a method of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is adopted. A result is a estimation of the parameter AR model can be simultaneously calculated.Keywords: autoregressive (AR) model, exponential white Noise, bayesian, reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
Procedia PDF Downloads 35621636 Numerical Pricing of Financial Options under Irrational Exercise Times and Regime-Switching Models
Authors: Mohammad Saber Rohi, Saghar Heidari
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In this paper, we studied the pricing problem of American options under a regime-switching model with the possibility of a non-optimal exercise policy (early or late exercise time) which is called an irrational strategy. For this, we consider a Markovmodulated model for the dynamic of the underlying asset as an alternative model to the classical Balck-Scholes-Merton model (BSM) and an intensity-based model for the irrational strategy, to provide more realistic results for American option prices under the irrational behavior in real financial markets. Applying a partial differential equation (PDE) approach, the pricing problem of American options under regime-switching models can be formulated as coupled PDEs. To solve the resulting systems of PDEs in this model, we apply a finite element method as the numerical solving procedure to the resulting variational inequality. Under some appropriate assumptions, we establish the stability of the method and compare its accuracy to some recent works to illustrate the suitability of the proposed model and the accuracy of the applied numerical method for the pricing problem of American options under the regime-switching model with irrational behaviors.Keywords: irrational exercise strategy, rationality parameter, regime-switching model, American option, finite element method, variational inequality
Procedia PDF Downloads 7321635 Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of Liquefaction of Wood and It's Model Components Using a Modified Multistage Shrinking-Core Model
Authors: K. G. R. M. Jayathilake, S. Rudra
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Wood degradation in hot compressed water is modeled with a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code using cellulose, xylan, and lignin as model compounds. Model compounds are reacted under catalyst-free conditions in a temperature range from 250 to 370 °C. Using a simplified reaction scheme where water soluble products, methanol soluble products, char like compounds and gas are generated through intermediates with each model compound. A modified multistage shrinking core model is developed to simulate particle degradation. In the modified shrinking core model, each model compound is hydrolyzed in separate stages. Cellulose is decomposed to glucose/oligomers before producing degradation products. Xylan is decomposed through xylose and then to degradation products where lignin is decomposed into soluble products before producing the total guaiacol, organic carbon (TOC) and then char and gas. Hydrolysis of each model compound is used as the main reaction of the process. Diffusion of water monomers to the particle surface to initiate hydrolysis and dissolution of the products in water is given importance during the modeling process. In the developed model the temperature variation depends on the Arrhenius relationship. Kinetic parameters from the literature are used for the mathematical model. Meanwhile, limited initial fast reaction kinetic data limit the development of more accurate CFD models. Liquefaction results of the CFD model are analyzed and validated using the experimental data available in the literature where it shows reasonable agreement.Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, liquefaction, shrinking-core, wood
Procedia PDF Downloads 12521634 The Role of Social Influences and Cultural Beliefs on Perceptions of Postpartum Depression among Mexican Origin Mothers in San Diego
Authors: Mireya Mateo Gomez
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The purpose of this study was to examine the perceptions first-generation Mexican origin mothers living in San Diego have on postpartum depression (PPD), with a special focus on social influences and cultural beliefs towards those meanings. This study also aimed to examine possible PPD help-seeking behaviors that first-generation Mexican origin mothers can perform. The Health Belief Model (HBM) and Social Ecological Model (SEM) were the guiding theoretical frameworks for this study. Data for this study were collected from three focus groups, four in-depth interviews, and the distribution of an acculturation survey (ARSMA II). There were a total of 15 participants, in which participant’s mean age was 45, and the mean age migrated to the United States being 22. Most participants identified as being married, born in Southern or Western Mexico, and with a strong Mexican identity in relation to the ARSMA survey. Participants identified four salient PPD perceptions corresponding to the interpersonal level of SEM. These four main perceptions were: 1) PPD affecting the identity of motherhood; 2) PPD being a natural part of a mother’s experience but mitigated by networks; 3) PPD being a U.S. phenomenon due to family and community breakdown; and 4) natural remedies as a preferred PPD treatment. In regard to themes relating to help seeking behaviors, participants identified seven being: 1) seeking help from immediate family members; 2) practicing home remedies; 3) seeking help from a medical professional; 4) obtaining help from a clinic or organization; 5) seeking help from God; 6) participating in PPD support groups; and 7) talking to a friend. It was evident in this study that postpartum depression is not a well discussed topic within the Mexican immigrant population. In relation to the role culture and social influences have on PPD perceptions, most participants shared hearing or learning about PPD from their family members or friends. Participants also stated seeking help from family members if diagnosed with PPD and seeking out home remedies. This study as well provides suggestions to increase the awareness of PPD among the Mexican immigrant community.Keywords: cultural beliefs, health belief model, Mexican origin mothers, perceptions, postpartum depression social ecological model
Procedia PDF Downloads 15321633 Towards the Management of Cybersecurity Threats in Organisations
Authors: O. A. Ajigini, E. N. Mwim
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Cybersecurity is the protection of computers, programs, networks, and data from attack, damage, unauthorised, unintended access, change, or destruction. Organisations collect, process and store their confidential and sensitive information on computers and transmit this data across networks to other computers. Moreover, the advent of internet technologies has led to various cyberattacks resulting in dangerous consequences for organisations. Therefore, with the increase in the volume and sophistication of cyberattacks, there is a need to develop models and make recommendations for the management of cybersecurity threats in organisations. This paper reports on various threats that cause malicious damage to organisations in cyberspace and provides measures on how these threats can be eliminated or reduced. The paper explores various aspects of protection measures against cybersecurity threats such as handling of sensitive data, network security, protection of information assets and cybersecurity awareness. The paper posits a model and recommendations on how to manage cybersecurity threats in organisations effectively. The model and the recommendations can then be utilised by organisations to manage the threats affecting their cyberspace. The paper provides valuable information to assist organisations in managing their cybersecurity threats and hence protect their computers, programs, networks and data in cyberspace. The paper aims to assist organisations to protect their information assets and data from cyberthreats as part of the contributions toward community engagement.Keywords: confidential information, cyberattacks, cybersecurity, cyberspace, sensitive information
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