Search results for: combustion model
8945 Performance Validation of Model Predictive Control for Electrical Power Converters of a Grid Integrated Oscillating Water Column
Authors: G. Rajapakse, S. Jayasinghe, A. Fleming
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This paper aims to experimentally validate the control strategy used for electrical power converters in grid integrated oscillating water column (OWC) wave energy converter (WEC). The particular OWC’s unidirectional air turbine-generator output power results in discrete large power pulses. Therefore, the system requires power conditioning prior to integrating to the grid. This is achieved by using a back to back power converter with an energy storage system. A Li-Ion battery energy storage is connected to the dc-link of the back-to-back converter using a bidirectional dc-dc converter. This arrangement decouples the system dynamics and mitigates the mismatch between supply and demand powers. All three electrical power converters used in the arrangement are controlled using finite control set-model predictive control (FCS-MPC) strategy. The rectifier controller is to regulate the speed of the turbine at a set rotational speed to uphold the air turbine at a desirable speed range under varying wave conditions. The inverter controller is to maintain the output power to the grid adhering to grid codes. The dc-dc bidirectional converter controller is to set the dc-link voltage at its reference value. The software modeling of the OWC system and FCS-MPC is carried out in the MATLAB/Simulink software using actual data and parameters obtained from a prototype unidirectional air-turbine OWC developed at Australian Maritime College (AMC). The hardware development and experimental validations are being carried out at AMC Electronic laboratory. The designed FCS-MPC for the power converters are separately coded in Code Composer Studio V8 and downloaded into separate Texas Instrument’s TIVA C Series EK-TM4C123GXL Launchpad Evaluation Boards with TM4C123GH6PMI microcontrollers (real-time control processors). Each microcontroller is used to drive 2kW 3-phase STEVAL-IHM028V2 evaluation board with an intelligent power module (STGIPS20C60). The power module consists of a 3-phase inverter bridge with 600V insulated gate bipolar transistors. Delta standard (ASDA-B2 series) servo drive/motor coupled to a 2kW permanent magnet synchronous generator is served as the turbine-generator. This lab-scale setup is used to obtain experimental results. The validation of the FCS-MPC is done by comparing these experimental results to the results obtained by MATLAB/Simulink software results in similar scenarios. The results show that under the proposed control scheme, the regulated variables follow their references accurately. This research confirms that FCS-MPC fits well into the power converter control of the OWC-WEC system with a Li-Ion battery energy storage.Keywords: dc-dc bidirectional converter, finite control set-model predictive control, Li-ion battery energy storage, oscillating water column, wave energy converter
Procedia PDF Downloads 1058944 Reliability Analysis of Geometric Performance of Onboard Satellite Sensors: A Study on Location Accuracy
Authors: Ch. Sridevi, A. Chalapathi Rao, P. Srinivasulu
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The location accuracy of data products is a critical parameter in assessing the geometric performance of satellite sensors. This study focuses on reliability analysis of onboard sensors to evaluate their performance in terms of location accuracy performance over time. The analysis utilizes field failure data and employs the weibull distribution to determine the reliability and in turn to understand the improvements or degradations over a period of time. The analysis begins by scrutinizing the location accuracy error which is the root mean square (RMS) error of differences between ground control point coordinates observed on the product and the map and identifying the failure data with reference to time. A significant challenge in this study is to thoroughly analyze the possibility of an infant mortality phase in the data. To address this, the Weibull distribution is utilized to determine if the data exhibits an infant stage or if it has transitioned into the operational phase. The shape parameter beta plays a crucial role in identifying this stage. Additionally, determining the exact start of the operational phase and the end of the infant stage poses another challenge as it is crucial to eliminate residual infant mortality or wear-out from the model, as it can significantly increase the total failure rate. To address this, an approach utilizing the well-established statistical Laplace test is applied to infer the behavior of sensors and to accurately ascertain the duration of different phases in the lifetime and the time required for stabilization. This approach also helps in understanding if the bathtub curve model, which accounts for the different phases in the lifetime of a product, is appropriate for the data and whether the thresholds for the infant period and wear-out phase are accurately estimated by validating the data in individual phases with Weibull distribution curve fitting analysis. Once the operational phase is determined, reliability is assessed using Weibull analysis. This analysis not only provides insights into the reliability of individual sensors with regards to location accuracy over the required period of time, but also establishes a model that can be applied to automate similar analyses for various sensors and parameters using field failure data. Furthermore, the identification of the best-performing sensor through this analysis serves as a benchmark for future missions and designs, ensuring continuous improvement in sensor performance and reliability. Overall, this study provides a methodology to accurately determine the duration of different phases in the life data of individual sensors. It enables an assessment of the time required for stabilization and provides insights into the reliability during the operational phase and the commencement of the wear-out phase. By employing this methodology, designers can make informed decisions regarding sensor performance with regards to location accuracy, contributing to enhanced accuracy in satellite-based applications.Keywords: bathtub curve, geometric performance, Laplace test, location accuracy, reliability analysis, Weibull analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 628943 The Use of Psychological Tests in Polish Organizations - Empirical Evidence
Authors: Milena Gojny-Zbierowska
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In the last decades psychological tests have been gaining in popularity as a method used for evaluating personnel, and they bring consulting companies solid profits rising by up to 10% each year. The market is offering a growing range of tools for the assessment of personality. Tests are used in organizations mainly in the recruitment and selection of staff. This paper is an attempt to initially diagnose the state of the use of psychological tests in Polish companies on the basis of empirical research.Keywords: psychological tests, personality, content analysis, NEO FFI, big five personality model
Procedia PDF Downloads 3538942 Modeling Revolution Shell Structures by MATLAB Programming-Axisymmetric and Nonaxisymmetric Shells
Authors: Hamadi Djamal, Labiodh Bachir, Ounis Abdelhafid, Chaalane Mourad
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The objective of this work is setting numerically operational finite element CAXI_L for the axisymmetric and nonaxisymmetric shells. This element is based on the Reissner-Mindlin theory and mixed model formulation. The MATLAB language is used for the programming. In order to test the elaborated program, some applications are carried out.Keywords: axisymmetric shells, nonaxisymmetric behaviour, finite element, MATLAB programming
Procedia PDF Downloads 3018941 Appraisal of the Impact Strength on Mild Steel Cladding Weld Metal Geometry
Authors: Chukwuemeka Daniel Ezeliora, Chukwuebuka Lawrence Ezeliora
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The research focused on the appraisal of impact strength on mild steel cladding weld metal geometry. Over the years, poor welding has resulted in failures in engineering components, poor material quality, the collapse of welded materials, and failures in material strength. This is as a result of poor selection and combination of welding input process parameters. The application of the Tungsten Inert Gas (TIG) welding method with weld specimen of length 60; width 40, and thickness of 10 was used for the experiment. A butt joint method was prepared for the welding, and tungsten inert gas welding process was used to perform the twenty (20) experimental runs. A response surface methodology was used to model and to analyze the system. For an adequate polynomial approximation, the experimental design was used to collect the data. The key parameters considered in this work are welding current, gas flow rate, welding speed, and voltage. The range of the input process parameters was selected from the literature and the design. The steps followed to achieve the experimental design and results is the use of response surface method (RSM) implemented in central composite design (CCD) to generate the design matrix, to obtain quadratic model, and evaluate the interactions in the factors as well as optimizing the factors and the response. The result expresses that the best impact strength of the mild steel cladding weld metal geometry is 115.419 Joules. However, it was observed that the result of the input factors is; current 180.4 amp, voltage 23.99 volt, welding speed 142.7 mm.s and gas flow rate 10.8 lit/min as the optimum of the input process parameters. The optimal solution gives a guide for optimal impact strength of the weldment when welding with tungsten inert gas (TIG) under study.Keywords: mild steel, impact strength, response surface, bead geometry, welding
Procedia PDF Downloads 1118940 Pomegranate Attenuated Levodopa-Induced Dyskinesia and Dopaminergic Degeneration in MPTP Mice Models of Parkinson’s Disease
Authors: Mahsa Hadipour Jahromy, Sara Rezaii
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Parkinson’s disease (PD) results primarily from the death of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra. Soon after the discovery of levodopa and its beneficial effects in chronic administration, debilitating involuntary movements observed, termed levodopa-induced dyskinesia (LID) with poorly understood pathogenesis. Polyphenol-rich compounds, like pomegranate, provided neuroprotection in several animal models of brain diseases. In the present work, we investigated whether pomegranate has preventive effects following 4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP)-induced dopaminergic degenerations and the potential to diminish LID in mice. Mice model of PD was induced by MPTP (30 mg/kg daily for five consecutive days). To induce a mice model of LID, valid PD mice were treated with levodopa (50 mg/kg, i.p) for 15 days. Then the effects of chronic co-administration of pomegranate juice (20 ml/kg) with levodopa and continuing for 10 days, evaluated. Behavioural tests were performed in all groups, every other day including: Abnormal involuntary movements (AIMS), forelimb adjusting steps, cylinder, and catatonia tests. Finally, brain tissue sections were prepared to study substantia nigra changes and dopamine neuron density after treatments. With this MPTP regimen, significant movement disorders revealed in AIMS tests and there was a reduction in dopamine striatal density. Levodopa attenuates their loss caused by MPTP, however, in chronic administration, dyskinesia observed in forelimb adjusting step and cylinder tests. Besides, catatonia observed in some cases. Chronic pomegranate co-administration significantly improved LID in both tests and reduced dopaminergic loss in substantia nigra. These data indicate that pomegranate might be a good adjunct for preserving dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra and reducing LID in mice.Keywords: levodopa-induced dyskinesia, MPTP, Parkinson’s disease, pomegranate
Procedia PDF Downloads 4878939 Exploratory Study on Mediating Role of Commitment-to-Change in Relations between Employee Voice, Employee Involvement and Organizational Change Readiness
Authors: Rohini Sharma, Chandan Kumar Sahoo, Rama Krishna Gupta Potnuru
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Strong competitive forces and requirements to achieve efficiency are forcing the organizations to realize the necessity and inevitability of change. What's more, the trend does not appear to be abating. Researchers have estimated that about two thirds of change project fails. Empirical evidences further shows that organizations invest significantly in the planned change but people side is accounted for in a token or instrumental way, which is identified as one of the important reason, why change endeavours fail. However, whatever be the reason for change, organizational change readiness must be gauged prior to the institutionalization of organizational change. Hence, in this study the influence of employee voice and employee involvement on organizational change readiness via commitment-to-change is examined, as it is an area yet to be extensively studied. Also, though a recent study has investigated the interrelationship between leadership, organizational change readiness and commitment to change, our study further examined these constructs in relation with employee voice and employee involvement that plays a consequential role for organizational change readiness. Further, integrated conceptual model weaving varied concepts relating to organizational readiness with focus on commitment to change as mediator was found to be an area, which required more theorizing and empirical validation, and this study rooted in an Indian public sector organization is a step in this direction. Data for the study were collected through a survey among employees of Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP), a unit of Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL); the first integrated Steel Plant in the public sector in India, for which stratified random sampling method was adopted. The schedule was distributed to around 700 employees, out of which 516 complete responses were obtained. The pre-validated scales were used for the study. All the variables in the study were measured on a five-point Likert scale ranging from “strongly disagree (1)” to “strongly agree (5)”. Structural equation modeling (SEM) using AMOS 22 was used to examine the hypothesized model, which offers a simultaneous test of an entire system of variables in a model. The study results shows that inter-relationship between employee voice and commitment-to-change, employee involvement and commitment-to-change and commitment-to-change and organizational change readiness were significant. To test the mediation hypotheses, Baron and Kenny’s technique was used. Examination of direct and mediated effect of mediators confirmed that commitment-to-change partially mediated the relation between employee involvement and organizational change readiness. Furthermore, study results also affirmed that commitment-to-change does not mediate the relation between employee involvement and organizational change readiness. The empirical exploration therefore establishes that it is important to harness employee’s valuable suggestions regarding change for building organizational change readiness. Regarding employee involvement, it was found that sharing information and involving people in decision-making, leads to a creation of participative climate, which educes employee commitment during change and commitment-to-change further, fosters organizational change readiness.Keywords: commitment-to-change, change management, employee voice, employee involvement, organizational change readiness
Procedia PDF Downloads 3218938 Effect of Agricultural Extension Services on Technical Efficiency of Smallholder Cassava Farmers in Ghana: A Stochastic Meta-Frontier Analysis
Authors: Arnold Missiame
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In Ghana, rural dwellers who depend primarily on agriculture for their livelihood constitute about 60% of the country’s population. This shows the critical role and potentials of the agricultural sector in helping to achieve Ghana’s vision 2030. With the current threat of climate change and advancements in technology, agricultural extension is not just about technology transfer and improvements in productivity, but it is also about improving the managerial and technical skills of farmers. In Ghana, the government of Ghana as well as other players in the sector like; non-governmental organizations, NGOs, local and international funding agencies, for decades now, have made capacity-building-investments in smallholder farmers by way of extension services delivery. This study sought to compare the technical efficiency of farmers who have access to agricultural extension and farmers who do not in Ghana. The study employed the stochastic meta-frontier model to analyze household survey data comprising 300 smallholder cassava farmers from the Fanteakwa district of Ghana. The farmers were selected through a two-stage sampling technique where 5 communities were purposively selected in the first stage and then 60 smallholder cassava farmers were randomly selected from each of the 5 communities. Semi-structured questionnaires were used to collect data on farmers’ socioeconomic and farm-level characteristics. The results showed that farmers who have access to agricultural extensions services have higher technical efficiencies (TE) and produce much closer to their meta-production frontiers (higher technology gap ratios (TGR) than farmers who do not have access to such extension services. Furthermore, experience in cassava cultivation and formal education significantly improves the technical efficiencies of farmers. The study recommends that the mode and scope of agricultural extension service delivery in the country should be enhanced to ensure that smallholder farmers have easy access to extension agents.Keywords: agricultural extension, Ghana, smallholder farmers, stochastic meta-frontier model, technical efficiency
Procedia PDF Downloads 998937 The Impact of Simulation-based Learning on the Clinical Self-efficacy and Adherence to Infection Control Practices of Nursing Students
Authors: Raeed Alanazi
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Introduction: Nursing students have a crucial role to play in the inhibition of infectious diseases and, therefore, must be trained in infection control and prevention modules prior to entering clinical settings. Simulations have been found to have a positive impact on infection control skills and the use of standard precautions. Aim: The purpose of this study was to use the four sources of self-efficacy in explaining the level of clinical self-efficacy and adherence to infection control practices in Saudi nursing students during simulation practice. Method: A cross-sectional design with convenience sampling was used. This study was conducted in all Saudi nursing schools, with a total number of 197 students participated in this study. Three scales were used simulation self- efficacy Scale (SSES), the four sources of self-efficacy scale (SSES), and Compliance with Standard Precautions Scale (CSPS). Multiple linear regression was used to test the use of the four sources of self-efficacy (SSES) in explaining level of clinical self-efficacy and adherence to infection control in nursing students. Results: The vicarious experience subscale (p =.044) was statistically significant. The regression model indicated that for every one unit increase in vicarious experience (observation and reflection in simulation), the participants’ adherence to infection control increased by .13 units (β =.22, t = 2.03, p =.044). In addition, the regression model indicated that for every one unit increase in education level, the participants’ adherence to infection control increased by 1.82 units (beta=.34= 3.64, p <.001). Also, the mastery experience subscale (p <.001) and vicarious experience subscale (p = .020) were shared significant associations with clinical self-efficacy. Conclusion: The findings of this research support the idea that simulation-based learning can be a valuable teaching-learning method to help nursing students develop clinical competence, which is essential in providing quality and safe nursing care.Keywords: simulation-based learning, clinical self-efficacy, infection control, nursing students
Procedia PDF Downloads 668936 A Survey on Compression Methods for Table Constraints
Authors: N. Gharbi
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Constraint Satisfaction problems are mathematical problems that are often used to model many real-world problems for which we look if there exists a solution satisfying all its constraints. Table constraints are important for modeling parts of many problems since they list all combinations of allowed or forbidden values. However, they admit practical limitations because they are sometimes too large to be represented in a direct way. In this paper, we present a survey of the different categories of the proposed approaches to compress table constraints in order to reduce both space and time complexities.Keywords: constraint programming, compression, data mining, table constraints
Procedia PDF Downloads 3168935 A Comparison of Convolutional Neural Network Architectures for the Classification of Alzheimer’s Disease Patients Using MRI Scans
Authors: Tomas Premoli, Sareh Rowlands
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In this study, we investigate the impact of various convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures on the accuracy of diagnosing Alzheimer’s disease (AD) using patient MRI scans. Alzheimer’s disease is a debilitating neurodegenerative disorder that affects millions worldwide. Early, accurate, and non-invasive diagnostic methods are required for providing optimal care and symptom management. Deep learning techniques, particularly CNNs, have shown great promise in enhancing this diagnostic process. We aim to contribute to the ongoing research in this field by comparing the effectiveness of different CNN architectures and providing insights for future studies. Our methodology involved preprocessing MRI data, implementing multiple CNN architectures, and evaluating the performance of each model. We employed intensity normalization, linear registration, and skull stripping for our preprocessing. The selected architectures included VGG, ResNet, and DenseNet models, all implemented using the Keras library. We employed transfer learning and trained models from scratch to compare their effectiveness. Our findings demonstrated significant differences in performance among the tested architectures, with DenseNet201 achieving the highest accuracy of 86.4%. Transfer learning proved to be helpful in improving model performance. We also identified potential areas for future research, such as experimenting with other architectures, optimizing hyperparameters, and employing fine-tuning strategies. By providing a comprehensive analysis of the selected CNN architectures, we offer a solid foundation for future research in Alzheimer’s disease diagnosis using deep learning techniques. Our study highlights the potential of CNNs as a valuable diagnostic tool and emphasizes the importance of ongoing research to develop more accurate and effective models.Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, medical imaging, MRI
Procedia PDF Downloads 638934 The Phenomena of Virtual World Adoption: Antecedents and Consequences of Virtual World Experience
Authors: Norita Ahmad, Reza Barkhi, Xiaobo Xu
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We design an experimental study to learn about the cognitive implications of the use of avatars in a Virtual World (VW) (i.e., Second Life). The results support our proposed model, where a positive flow experience with VW influences the attitude towards VW, in turn influencing intention to use VW. Furthermore, VW flow experience can itself be impacted by perceived peer influence, familiarity with VW, and personality of the individuals behind the avatars in VW.Keywords: avatar, flow experience, personality type, second life, virtual world
Procedia PDF Downloads 5878933 What 4th-Year Primary-School Students are Thinking: A Paper Airplane Problem
Authors: Neslihan Şahin Çelik, Ali Eraslan
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In recent years, mathematics educators have frequently stressed the necessity of instructing students about models and modeling approaches that encompass cognitive and metacognitive thought processes, starting from the first years of school and continuing on through the years of higher education. The purpose of this study is to examine the thought processes of 4th-grade primary school students in their modeling activities and to explore the difficulties encountered in these processes, if any. The study, of qualitative design, was conducted in the 2015-2016 academic year at a public state-school located in a central city in the Black Sea Region of Turkey. A preliminary study was first implemented with designated 4th grade students, after which the criterion sampling method was used to select three students that would be recruited into the focus group. The focus group that was thus formed was asked to work on the model eliciting activity of the Paper Airplane Problem and the entire process was recorded on video. The Paper Airplane Problem required the students to determine the winner with respect to: (a) the plane that stays in the air for the longest time; (b) the plane that travels the greatest distance in a straight-line path; and (c) the overall winner for the contest. A written transcript was made of the video recording, after which the recording and the students' worksheets were analyzed using the Blum and Ferri modeling cycle. The results of the study revealed that the students tested the hypotheses related to daily life that they had set up, generated ideas of their own, verified their models by making connections with real life, and tried to make their models generalizable. On the other hand, the students had some difficulties in terms of their interpretation of the table of data and their ways of operating on the data during the modeling processes.Keywords: primary school students, model eliciting activity, mathematical modeling, modeling process, paper airplane problem
Procedia PDF Downloads 3518932 Control Strategy for a Solar Vehicle Race
Authors: Francois Defay, Martim Calao, Jean Francois Dassieu, Laurent Salvetat
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Electrical vehicles are a solution for reducing the pollution using green energy. The shell Eco-Marathon provides rules in order to minimize the battery use for the race. The use of solar panel combined with efficient motor control and race strategy allow driving a 60kg vehicle with one pilot using only the solar energy in the best case. This paper presents a complete modelization of a solar vehicle used for the shell eco-marathon. This project called Helios is cooperation between non-graduated students, academic institutes, and industrials. The prototype is an ultra-energy-efficient vehicle based on one-meter square solar panel and an own-made brushless controller to optimize the electrical part. The vehicle is equipped with sensors and embedded system to provide all the data in real time in order to evaluate the best strategy for the course. A complete modelization with Matlab/Simulink is used to test the optimal strategy to increase the global endurance. Experimental results are presented to validate the different parts of the model: mechanical, aerodynamics, electrical, solar panel. The major finding of this study is to provide solutions to identify the model parameters (Rolling Resistance Coefficient, drag coefficient, motor torque coefficient, etc.) by means of experimental results combined with identification techniques. One time the coefficients are validated, the strategy to optimize the consumption and the average speed can be tested first in simulation before to be implanted for the race. The paper describes all the simulation and experimental parts and provides results in order to optimize the global efficiency of the vehicle. This works have been started four years ago and evolved many students for the experimental and theoretical parts and allow to increase the knowledge on electrical self-efficient vehicle.Keywords: electrical vehicle, endurance, optimization, shell eco-marathon
Procedia PDF Downloads 2558931 Two Dimensional Numerical Analysis for the Seismic Response of the Geosynthetic-Reinforced Soil Integral Abutments
Authors: Dawei Shen, Ming Xu, Pengfei Liu
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The joints between simply supported bridge decks and abutments need to be regularly repaired, which would greatly increase the cost during the service life of the bridge. Simply supported girder bridges suffered the most severe damage during earthquakes. Another type of bridge, the integral bridge, of which the superstructure and abutment are rigidly connected, was also used in some European countries. Because no bearings or joints exit in the integral bridge, this type of bridge could significantly reduce maintenance requirements and costs. However, conventional integral bridge usually result in high earth pressure on the abutment and surface settlement in the backfill. To solve these problems, a new type of integral bridge, geosynthetic-reinforced soil (GRS) integral bridge, was come up in recent years. This newly invented bridge has not been used in engineering practices. There was a lack of research on the seismic behavior of the conventional and new type of integral abutments. In addition, no common design code could be found for the calculation of seismic pressure of soil behind the abutment. This paper developed a dynamic constitutive model, which can consider the soil behaviors under cyclic loading. Numerical analyses of the seismic response of a full height integral bridge and GRS integral bridge were carried out using the two-dimensional numerical code, FLAC. A parametric study was also performed to investigate the soil-structure interaction. The results are presented below. The seismic responses of GRS integral bridge together with conventional simply supported bridge, GRS conventional bridge and conventional integral bridge were investigated. The results show that the GRS integral bridge holds the highest seismic stability, followed by conventional integral bridge, GRS simply supported bridge and conventional simply supported bridge. Compared with the integral bridge with 1 m thick abutments, the GRS integral bridge with 0.4 m thick abutments is subjected to a smaller bending moment, and the natural frequency and horizontal displacement remains almost the same. Geosynthetic-reinforcement will be more effective when the abutment becomes thinner or the abutment is higher.Keywords: geosynthetic-reinforced soil integral bridge, nonlinear hysteretic model, numerical analysis, seismic response
Procedia PDF Downloads 4588930 Nurturing Students' Creativity through Engagement in Problem Posing and Self-Assessment of Its Development
Authors: Atara Shriki, Ilana Lavy
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In a rapidly changing technological society, creativity is considered as an engine of economic and social progress. No doubt the education system has a central role in nurturing all students’ creativity, however, it is normally not encouraged at school. The causes of this reality are related to a variety of circumstances, among them: external pressures to cover the curriculum and succeed in standardized tests that mostly require algorithmic thinking and implementation of rules; teachers’ tendency to teach similarly to the way they themselves were taught as school students; relating creativity to giftedness, and therefore avoid nurturing all students' creativity; lack of adequate learning materials and accessible tools for following and evaluating the development of students’ creativity; and more. Since success in academic studies requires, among other things, creativity, lecturers in higher education institutions should consider appropriate ways to nurture students’ creative thinking and assess its development. Obviously, creativity has a multifaceted nature, numerous definitions, various perspectives for studying its essence (e.g., process, personality, environment, and product), and several approaches aimed at evaluating and assessing creative expressions (e.g., cognitive, social-personal, and psychometric). In this framework, we suggest nurturing students’ creativity through engaging them in problem posing activities that are part of inquiry assignments. In order to assess the development of their creativity, we propose to employ a model that was designed for this purpose, based on the psychometric approach, viewing the posed problems as the “creative product”. The model considers four measurable aspects- fluency, flexibility, originality, and organization, as well as a total score of creativity that reflects the relative weights of each aspect. The scores given to learners are of two types: (1) Total scores- the absolute number of posed problems with respect to each of the four aspects, and a final score of creativity; (2) Relative scores- each absolute number is transformed into a number that relates to the relative infrequency of the posed problems in student’s reference group. Through converting the scores received over time into a graphical display, students can assess their progress both with respect to themselves and relative to their reference group. Course lecturers can get a picture of the strengths and weaknesses of each student as well as the class as a whole, and to track changes that occur over time in response to the learning environment they had generated. Such tracking may assist lecturers in making pedagogical decisions about emphases that should be put on one or more aspects of creativity, and about the students that should be given a special attention. Our experience indicates that schoolteachers and lecturers in higher education institutes find the combination of engaging learners in problem posing along with self-assessment of their progress through utilizing the graphical display of accumulating total and relative scores has the potential to realize most learners’ creative potential.Keywords: creativity, problem posing, psychometric model, self-assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 3078929 The Role of Trust in Intention to Use Prescribed and Non-prescribed Connected Devices
Authors: Jean-michel Sahut, Lubica Hikkerova, Wissal Ben Arfi
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The Internet of Things (IoT) emerged over the last few decades in many fields. Healthcare can significantly benefit from IoT. This study aims to examine factors influencing the adoption of IoT in eHealth. To do so, an innovative framework has been developed which applies both the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and the United Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model and builds on them by analyzing trust and perceived-risk dimensions to predict intention to use IoT in eHealth. In terms of methodology, a Partial Least Approach Structural Equation Modelling was carried out on a sample of 267 French users. The findings of this research support the significant positive effect of constructs set out in the TAM (perceived ease of use) on predicting behavioral intention by adding the effects identified for UTAUT variables. This research also demonstrates how perceived risk and trust are significant factors for models examining behavioral intentions to use IoT. Perceived risk enhanced by the trust has a significant effect on patients’ behavioral intentions. Moreover, the results highlight the key role of prescription as a moderator of IoT adoption in eHealth. Depending on whether an individual has a prescription to use connected devices or not, ease of use has a stronger impact on adoption, while trust has a negative impact on adoption for users without a prescription. In accordance with the empirical results, several practical implications can be proposed. All connected devices applied in a medical context should be divided into groups according to their functionality: whether they are essential for the patient’s health and whether they require a prescription or not. Devices used with a prescription are easily accepted because the intention to use them is moderated by the medical trust (discussed above). For users without a prescription, ease of use is a more significant factor than for users who have a prescription. This suggests that currently, connected e-Health devices and online healthcare systems have to take this factor into account to better meet the needs and expectations of end-users.Keywords: internet of things, Healthcare, trust, consumer acceptance
Procedia PDF Downloads 1358928 Organizational Innovativeness: Motivation in Employee’s Innovative Work Behaviors
Authors: P. T. Ngan
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Purpose: The study aims to answer the question what are motivational conditions that have great influences on employees’ innovative work behaviors by investigating the case of SATAMANKULMA/ Anya Productions Ky in Kuopio, Finland. Design/methodology: The main methodology utilized was the qualitative single case study research, analysis was conducted with an adapted thematic content analysis procedure, created from empirical material that was collected through interviews, observation and document review. Findings: The paper highlights the significance of combining relevant synergistic extrinsic and intrinsic motivations into the organizational motivation system. The findings show that intrinsic drives are essential for the initiation phases while extrinsic drives are more important for the implementation phases of innovative work behaviors. The study also offers the IDEA motivation model-interpersonal relationships & networks, development opportunities, economic constituent and application supports as an ideal tool to optimize business performance. Practical limitations/ implications: The research was only conducted from the perspective of SATAMANKULMA/Anya Productions Ky, with five interviews, a few observations and with several reviewed documents. However, further research is required to include other stakeholders, such as the customers, partner companies etc. Also the study does not offer statistical validity of the findings; an extensive case study or a qualitative multiple case study is suggested to compare the findings and provide information as to whether IDEA model relevant in other types of firms. Originality/value: Neither the innovation nor the human resource management field provides a detailed overview of specific motivational conditions might use to stimulate innovative work behaviors of individual employees. This paper fills that void.Keywords: employee innovative work behaviors, extrinsic motivation, intrinsic motivation, organizational innovativeness
Procedia PDF Downloads 2588927 Estimation of Service Quality and Its Impact on Market Share Using Business Analytics
Authors: Haritha Saranga
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Service quality has become an important driver of competition in manufacturing industries of late, as many products are being sold in conjunction with service offerings. With increase in computational power and data capture capabilities, it has become possible to analyze and estimate various aspects of service quality at the granular level and determine their impact on business performance. In the current study context, dealer level, model-wise warranty data from one of the top two-wheeler manufacturers in India is used to estimate service quality of individual dealers and its impact on warranty related costs and sales performance. We collected primary data on warranty costs, number of complaints, monthly sales, type of quality upgrades, etc. from the two-wheeler automaker. In addition, we gathered secondary data on various regions in India, such as petrol and diesel prices, geographic and climatic conditions of various regions where the dealers are located, to control for customer usage patterns. We analyze this primary and secondary data with the help of a variety of analytics tools such as Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal ARIMA and ARIMAX. Study results, after controlling for a variety of factors, such as size, age, region of the dealership, and customer usage pattern, show that service quality does influence sales of the products in a significant manner. A more nuanced analysis reveals the dynamics between product quality and service quality, and how their interaction affects sales performance in the Indian two-wheeler industry context. We also provide various managerial insights using descriptive analytics and build a model that can provide sales projections using a variety of forecasting techniques.Keywords: service quality, product quality, automobile industry, business analytics, auto-regressive integrated moving average
Procedia PDF Downloads 1158926 Mathematical Modelling of Bacterial Growth in Products of Animal Origin in Storage and Transport: Effects of Temperature, Use of Bacteriocins and pH Level
Authors: Benjamin Castillo, Luis Pastenes, Fernando Cordova
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The pathogen growth in animal source foods is a common problem in the food industry, causing monetary losses due to the spoiling of products or food intoxication outbreaks in the community. In this sense, the quality of the product is reflected by the population of deteriorating agents present in it, which are mainly bacteria. The factors which are likely associated with freshness in animal source foods are temperature and processing, storage, and transport times. However, the level of deterioration of products depends, in turn, on the characteristics of the bacterial population, causing the decomposition or spoiling, such as pH level and toxins. Knowing the growth dynamics of the agents that are involved in product contamination allows the monitoring for more efficient processing. This means better quality and reasonable costs, along with a better estimation of necessary time and temperature intervals for transport and storage in order to preserve product quality. The objective of this project is to design a secondary model that allows measuring the impact on temperature bacterial growth and the competition for pH adequacy and release of bacteriocins in order to describe such phenomenon and, thus, estimate food product half-life with the least possible risk of deterioration or spoiling. In order to achieve this objective, the authors propose an analysis of a three-dimensional ordinary differential which includes; logistic bacterial growth extended by the inhibitory action of bacteriocins including the effect of the medium pH; change in the medium pH levels through an adaptation of the Luedeking-Piret kinetic model; Bacteriocin concentration modeled similarly to pH levels. These three dimensions are being influenced by the temperature at all times. Then, this differential system is expanded, taking into consideration the variable temperature and the concentration of pulsed bacteriocins, which represent characteristics inherent of the modeling, such as transport and storage, as well as the incorporation of substances that inhibit bacterial growth. The main results lead to the fact that temperature changes in an early stage of transport increased the bacterial population significantly more than if it had increased during the final stage. On the other hand, the incorporation of bacteriocins, as in other investigations, proved to be efficient in the short and medium-term since, although the population of bacteria decreased, once the bacteriocins were depleted or degraded over time, the bacteria eventually returned to their regular growth rate. The efficacy of the bacteriocins at low temperatures decreased slightly, which equates with the fact that their natural degradation rate also decreased. In summary, the implementation of the mathematical model allowed the simulation of a set of possible bacteria present in animal based products, along with their properties, in various transport and storage situations, which led us to state that for inhibiting bacterial growth, the optimum is complementary low constant temperatures and the initial use of bacteriocins.Keywords: bacterial growth, bacteriocins, mathematical modelling, temperature
Procedia PDF Downloads 1258925 Quantitative Analysis of Camera Setup for Optical Motion Capture Systems
Authors: J. T. Pitale, S. Ghassab, H. Ay, N. Berme
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Biomechanics researchers commonly use marker-based optical motion capture (MoCap) systems to extract human body kinematic data. These systems use cameras to detect passive or active markers placed on the subject. The cameras use triangulation methods to form images of the markers, which typically require each marker to be visible by at least two cameras simultaneously. Cameras in a conventional optical MoCap system are mounted at a distance from the subject, typically on walls, ceiling as well as fixed or adjustable frame structures. To accommodate for space constraints and as portable force measurement systems are getting popular, there is a need for smaller and smaller capture volumes. When the efficacy of a MoCap system is investigated, it is important to consider the tradeoff amongst the camera distance from subject, pixel density, and the field of view (FOV). If cameras are mounted relatively close to a subject, the area corresponding to each pixel reduces, thus increasing the image resolution. However, the cross section of the capture volume also decreases, causing reduction of the visible area. Due to this reduction, additional cameras may be required in such applications. On the other hand, mounting cameras relatively far from the subject increases the visible area but reduces the image quality. The goal of this study was to develop a quantitative methodology to investigate marker occlusions and optimize camera placement for a given capture volume and subject postures using three-dimension computer-aided design (CAD) tools. We modeled a 4.9m x 3.7m x 2.4m (LxWxH) MoCap volume and designed a mounting structure for cameras using SOLIDWORKS (Dassault Systems, MA, USA). The FOV was used to generate the capture volume for each camera placed on the structure. A human body model with configurable posture was placed at the center of the capture volume on CAD environment. We studied three postures; initial contact, mid-stance, and early swing. The human body CAD model was adjusted for each posture based on the range of joint angles. Markers were attached to the model to enable a full body capture. The cameras were placed around the capture volume at a maximum distance of 2.7m from the subject. We used the Camera View feature in SOLIDWORKS to generate images of the subject as seen by each camera and the number of markers visible to each camera was tabulated. The approach presented in this study provides a quantitative method to investigate the efficacy and efficiency of a MoCap camera setup. This approach enables optimization of a camera setup through adjusting the position and orientation of cameras on the CAD environment and quantifying marker visibility. It is also possible to compare different camera setup options on the same quantitative basis. The flexibility of the CAD environment enables accurate representation of the capture volume, including any objects that may cause obstructions between the subject and the cameras. With this approach, it is possible to compare different camera placement options to each other, as well as optimize a given camera setup based on quantitative results.Keywords: motion capture, cameras, biomechanics, gait analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 3038924 A Fast Multi-Scale Finite Element Method for Geophysical Resistivity Measurements
Authors: Mostafa Shahriari, Sergio Rojas, David Pardo, Angel Rodriguez- Rozas, Shaaban A. Bakr, Victor M. Calo, Ignacio Muga
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Logging-While Drilling (LWD) is a technique to record down-hole logging measurements while drilling the well. Nowadays, LWD devices (e.g., nuclear, sonic, resistivity) are mostly used commercially for geo-steering applications. Modern borehole resistivity tools are able to measure all components of the magnetic field by incorporating tilted coils. The depth of investigation of LWD tools is limited compared to the thickness of the geological layers. Thus, it is a common practice to approximate the Earth’s subsurface with a sequence of 1D models. For a 1D model, we can reduce the dimensionality of the problem using a Hankel transform. We can solve the resulting system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) either (a) analytically, which results in a so-called semi-analytic method after performing a numerical inverse Hankel transform, or (b) numerically. Semi-analytic methods are used by the industry due to their high performance. However, they have major limitations, namely: -The analytical solution of the aforementioned system of ODEs exists only for piecewise constant resistivity distributions. For arbitrary resistivity distributions, the solution of the system of ODEs is unknown by today’s knowledge. -In geo-steering, we need to solve inverse problems with respect to the inversion variables (e.g., the constant resistivity value of each layer and bed boundary positions) using a gradient-based inversion method. Thus, we need to compute the corresponding derivatives. However, the analytical derivatives of cross-bedded formation and the analytical derivatives with respect to the bed boundary positions have not been published to the best of our knowledge. The main contribution of this work is to overcome the aforementioned limitations of semi-analytic methods by solving each 1D model (associated with each Hankel mode) using an efficient multi-scale finite element method. The main idea is to divide our computations into two parts: (a) offline computations, which are independent of the tool positions and we precompute only once and use them for all logging positions, and (b) online computations, which depend upon the logging position. With the above method, (a) we can consider arbitrary resistivity distributions along the 1D model, and (b) we can easily and rapidly compute the derivatives with respect to any inversion variable at a negligible additional cost by using an adjoint state formulation. Although the proposed method is slower than semi-analytic methods, its computational efficiency is still high. In the presentation, we shall derive the mathematical variational formulation, describe the proposed multi-scale finite element method, and verify the accuracy and efficiency of our method by performing a wide range of numerical experiments and comparing the numerical solutions to semi-analytic ones when the latest are available.Keywords: logging-While-Drilling, resistivity measurements, multi-scale finite elements, Hankel transform
Procedia PDF Downloads 3788923 Modeling of the Dynamic Characteristics of a Spindle with Experimental Validation
Authors: Jhe-Hao Huang, Kun-Da Wu, Wei-Cheng Shih, Jui-Pin Hung
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This study presented the investigation on the dynamic characteristics of a spindle tool system by experimental and finite element modeling approaches. As well known facts, the machining stability is greatly determined by the dynamic characteristics of the spindle tool system. Therefore, understanding the factors affecting dynamic behavior of a spindle tooling system is a prerequisite in dominating the final machining performance of machine tool system. To this purpose, a physical spindle unit was employed to assess the dynamic characteristics by vibration tests. Then, a three-dimensional finite element model of a high-speed spindle system integrated with tool holder was created to simulate the dynamic behaviors. For modeling the angular contact bearings, a series of spring elements were introduced between the inner and outer rings. The spring constant can be represented by the contact stiffness of the rolling bearing based on Hertz theory. The interface characteristic between spindle nose and tool holder taper can be quantified from the comparison of the measurements and predictions. According to the results obtained from experiments and finite element predictions, the vibration behavior of the spindle is dominated by the bending deformation of the spindle shaft in different modes, which is further determined by the stiffness of the bearings in spindle housing. Also, the spindle unit with tool holder shows a different dynamic behavior from that of spindle without tool holder. This indicates the interface property between tool holder and spindle nose plays an dominance on the dynamic characteristics the spindle tool system. Overall, the dynamic behaviors the spindle with and without tool holder can be successfully investigated through the finite element model proposed in this study. The prediction accuracy is determined by the modeling of the rolling interface of ball bearings in spindles and the interface characteristics between tool holder and spindle nose. Besides, identifications of the interface characteristics of a ball bearing and spindle tool holder are important for the refinement of the spindle tooling system to achieve the optimum machining performance.Keywords: contact stiffness, dynamic characteristics, spindle, tool holder interface
Procedia PDF Downloads 2898922 Sustainability in Community-Based Forestry Management: A Case from Nepal
Authors: Tanka Nath Dahal
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Community-based forestry is seen as a promising instrument for sustainable forest management (SFM) through the purposeful involvement of local communities. Globally, forest area managed by local communities is on the rise. However, transferring management responsibilities to forest users alone cannot guarantee the sustainability of forest management. A monitoring tool, that allows the local communities to track the progress of forest management towards the goal of sustainability, is essential. A case study, including six forest user groups (FUGs), two from each three community-based forestry models—community forestry (CF), buffer zone community forestry (BZCF), and collaborative forest management (CFM) representing three different physiographic regions, was conducted in Nepal. The study explores which community-based forest management model (CF, BZCF or CFM) is doing well in terms of sustainable forest management. The study assesses the overall performance of the three models towards SFM using locally developed criteria (four), indicators (26) and verifiers (60). This paper attempts to quantify the sustainability of the models using sustainability index for individual criteria (SIIC), and overall sustainability index (OSI). In addition, rating to the criteria and scoring of the verifiers by the FUGs were done. Among the four criteria, the FUGs ascribed the highest weightage to institutional framework and governance criterion; followed by economic and social benefits, forest management practices, and extent of forest resources. Similarly, the SIIC was found to be the highest for the institutional framework and governance criterion. The average values of OSI for CFM, CF, and BZCF were 0.48, 0.51 and 0.60 respectively; suggesting that buffer zone community forestry is the more sustainable model among the three. The study also suggested that the SIIC and OSI help local communities to quantify the overall progress of their forestry practices towards sustainability. The indices provided a clear picture of forest management practices to indicate the direction where they are heading in terms of sustainability; and informed the users on issues to pay attention to enhancing the sustainability of their forests.Keywords: community forestry, collaborative management, overall sustainability, sustainability index for individual criteria
Procedia PDF Downloads 2428921 Experimental Study of Boost Converter Based PV Energy System
Authors: T. Abdelkrim, K. Ben Seddik, B. Bezza, K. Benamrane, Aeh. Benkhelifa
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This paper proposes an implementation of boost converter for a resistive load using photovoltaic energy as a source. The model of photovoltaic cell and operating principle of boost converter are presented. A PIC micro controller is used in the close loop control to generate pulses for controlling the converter circuit. To performance evaluation of boost converter, a variation of output voltage of PV panel is done by shading one and two cells.Keywords: boost converter, microcontroller, photovoltaic power generation, shading cells
Procedia PDF Downloads 8668920 Intelligent Process and Model Applied for E-Learning Systems
Authors: Mafawez Alharbi, Mahdi Jemmali
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E-learning is a developing area especially in education. E-learning can provide several benefits to learners. An intelligent system to collect all components satisfying user preferences is so important. This research presents an approach that it capable to personalize e-information and give the user their needs following their preferences. This proposal can make some knowledge after more evaluations made by the user. In addition, it can learn from the habit from the user. Finally, we show a walk-through to prove how intelligent process work.Keywords: artificial intelligence, architecture, e-learning, software engineering, processing
Procedia PDF Downloads 1818919 An Extension of the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution
Authors: Serge Provost, Abdous Saboor
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A q-analogue of the generalized extreme value distribution which includes the Gumbel distribution is introduced. The additional parameter q allows for increased modeling flexibility. The resulting distribution can have a finite, semi-infinite or infinite support. It can also produce several types of hazard rate functions. The model parameters are determined by making use of the method of maximum likelihood. It will be shown that it compares favourably to three related distributions in connection with the modeling of a certain hydrological data set.Keywords: extreme value theory, generalized extreme value distribution, goodness-of-fit statistics, Gumbel distribution
Procedia PDF Downloads 3418918 Monitoring the Effect of Doxorubicin Liposomal in VX2 Tumor Using Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Authors: Ren-Jy Ben, Jo-Chi Jao, Chiu-Ya Liao, Ya-Ru Tsai, Lain-Chyr Hwang, Po-Chou Chen
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Cancer is still one of the serious diseases threatening the lives of human beings. How to have an early diagnosis and effective treatment for tumors is a very important issue. The animal carcinoma model can provide a simulation tool for the study of pathogenesis, biological characteristics and therapeutic effects. Recently, drug delivery systems have been rapidly developed to effectively improve the therapeutic effects. Liposome plays an increasingly important role in clinical diagnosis and therapy for delivering a pharmaceutic or contrast agent to the targeted sites. Liposome can be absorbed and excreted by the human body, and is well known that no harm to the human body. This study aimed to compare the therapeutic effects between encapsulated (doxorubicin liposomal, LipoDox) and un-encapsulated (doxorubicin, Dox) anti-tumor drugs using Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). Twenty-four New Zealand rabbits implanted with VX2 carcinoma at left thigh were classified into three groups: control group (untreated), Dox-treated group and LipoDox-treated group, 8 rabbits for each group. MRI scans were performed three days after tumor implantation. A 1.5T GE Signa HDxt whole body MRI scanner with a high resolution knee coil was used in this study. After a 3-plane localizer scan was performed, Three-Dimensional (3D) Fast Spin Echo (FSE) T2-Weighted Images (T2WI) was used for tumor volumetric quantification. And Two-Dimensional (2D) spoiled gradient recalled echo (SPGR) dynamic Contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI was used for tumor perfusion evaluation. DCE-MRI was designed to acquire four baseline images, followed by contrast agent Gd-DOTA injection through the ear vein of rabbits. Afterwards, a series of 32 images were acquired to observe the signals change over time in the tumor and muscle. The MRI scanning was scheduled on a weekly basis for a period of four weeks to observe the tumor progression longitudinally. The Dox and LipoDox treatments were prescribed 3 times in the first week immediately after VX2 tumor implantation. ImageJ was used to quantitate tumor volume and time course signal enhancement on DCE images. The changes of tumor size showed that the growth of VX2 tumors was effectively inhibited for both LipoDox-treated and Dox-treated groups. Furthermore, the tumor volume of LipoDox-treated group was significantly lower than that of Dox-treated group, which implies that LipoDox has better therapeutic effect than Dox. The signal intensity of LipoDox-treated group is significantly lower than that of the other two groups, which implies that targeted therapeutic drug remained in the tumor tissue. This study provides a radiation-free and non-invasive MRI method for therapeutic monitoring of targeted liposome on an animal tumor model.Keywords: doxorubicin, dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI, lipodox, magnetic resonance imaging, VX2 tumor model
Procedia PDF Downloads 4528917 Use of Socially Assistive Robots in Early Rehabilitation to Promote Mobility for Infants with Motor Delays
Authors: Elena Kokkoni, Prasanna Kannappan, Ashkan Zehfroosh, Effrosyni Mavroudi, Kristina Strother-Garcia, James C. Galloway, Jeffrey Heinz, Rene Vidal, Herbert G. Tanner
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Early immobility affects the motor, cognitive, and social development. Current pediatric rehabilitation lacks the technology that will provide the dosage needed to promote mobility for young children at risk. The addition of socially assistive robots in early interventions may help increase the mobility dosage. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of an early intervention paradigm where non-walking infants experience independent mobility while socially interacting with robots. A dynamic environment is developed where both the child and the robot interact and learn from each other. The environment involves: 1) a range of physical activities that are goal-oriented, age-appropriate, and ability-matched for the child to perform, 2) the automatic functions that perceive the child’s actions through novel activity recognition algorithms, and decide appropriate actions for the robot, and 3) a networked visual data acquisition system that enables real-time assessment and provides the means to connect child behavior with robot decision-making in real-time. The environment was tested by bringing a two-year old boy with Down syndrome for eight sessions. The child presented delays throughout his motor development with the current being on the acquisition of walking. During the sessions, the child performed physical activities that required complex motor actions (e.g. climbing an inclined platform and/or staircase). During these activities, a (wheeled or humanoid) robot was either performing the action or was at its end point 'signaling' for interaction. From these sessions, information was gathered to develop algorithms to automate the perception of activities which the robot bases its actions on. A Markov Decision Process (MDP) is used to model the intentions of the child. A 'smoothing' technique is used to help identify the model’s parameters which are a critical step when dealing with small data sets such in this paradigm. The child engaged in all activities and socially interacted with the robot across sessions. With time, the child’s mobility was increased, and the frequency and duration of complex and independent motor actions were also increased (e.g. taking independent steps). Simulation results on the combination of the MDP and smoothing support the use of this model in human-robot interaction. Smoothing facilitates learning MDP parameters from small data sets. This paradigm is feasible and provides an insight on how social interaction may elicit mobility actions suggesting a new early intervention paradigm for very young children with motor disabilities. Acknowledgment: This work has been supported by NIH under grant #5R01HD87133.Keywords: activity recognition, human-robot interaction, machine learning, pediatric rehabilitation
Procedia PDF Downloads 2858916 Numerical Method for Productivity Prediction of Water-Producing Gas Well with Complex 3D Fractures: Case Study of Xujiahe Gas Well in Sichuan Basin
Authors: Hong Li, Haiyang Yu, Shiqing Cheng, Nai Cao, Zhiliang Shi
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Unconventional resources have gradually become the main direction for oil and gas exploration and development. However, the productivity of gas wells, the level of water production, and the seepage law in tight fractured gas reservoirs are very different. These are the reasons why production prediction is so difficult. Firstly, a three-dimensional multi-scale fracture and multiphase mathematical model based on an embedded discrete fracture model (EDFM) is established. And the material balance method is used to calculate the water body multiple according to the production performance characteristics of water-producing gas well. This will help construct a 'virtual water body'. Based on these, this paper presents a numerical simulation process that can adapt to different production modes of gas wells. The research results show that fractures have a double-sided effect. The positive side is that it can increase the initial production capacity, but the negative side is that it can connect to the water body, which will lead to the gas production drop and the water production rise both rapidly, showing a 'scissor-like' characteristic. It is worth noting that fractures with different angles have different abilities to connect with the water body. The higher the angle of gas well development, the earlier the water maybe break through. When the reservoir is a single layer, there may be a stable production period without water before the fractures connect with the water body. Once connected, a 'scissors shape' will appear. If the reservoir has multiple layers, the gas and water will produce at the same time. The above gas-water relationship can be matched with the gas well production date of the Xujiahe gas reservoir in the Sichuan Basin. This method is used to predict the productivity of a well with hydraulic fractures in this gas reservoir, and the prediction results are in agreement with on-site production data by more than 90%. It shows that this research idea has great potential in the productivity prediction of water-producing gas wells. Early prediction results are of great significance to guide the design of development plans.Keywords: EDFM, multiphase, multilayer, water body
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