Search results for: software development models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 24444

Search results for: software development models

23664 Hardware Implementation and Real-time Experimental Validation of a Direction of Arrival Estimation Algorithm

Authors: Nizar Tayem, AbuMuhammad Moinuddeen, Ahmed A. Hussain, Redha M. Radaydeh

Abstract:

This research paper introduces an approach for estimating the direction of arrival (DOA) of multiple RF noncoherent sources in a uniform linear array (ULA). The proposed method utilizes a Capon-like estimation algorithm and incorporates LU decomposition to enhance the accuracy of DOA estimation while significantly reducing computational complexity compared to existing methods like the Capon method. Notably, the proposed method does not require prior knowledge of the number of sources. To validate its effectiveness, the proposed method undergoes validation through both software simulations and practical experimentation on a prototype testbed constructed using a software-defined radio (SDR) platform and GNU Radio software. The results obtained from MATLAB simulations and real-time experiments provide compelling evidence of the proposed method's efficacy.

Keywords: DOA estimation, real-time validation, software defined radio, computational complexity, Capon's method, GNU radio

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23663 Contrasted Mean and Median Models in Egyptian Stock Markets

Authors: Mai A. Ibrahim, Mohammed El-Beltagy, Motaz Khorshid

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Emerging Markets return distributions have shown significance departure from normality were they are characterized by fatter tails relative to the normal distribution and exhibit levels of skewness and kurtosis that constitute a significant departure from normality. Therefore, the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance is not applicable for emerging markets since it assumes normally-distributed returns (with zero skewness and kurtosis) and a quadratic utility function. Moreover, the Markowitz mean-variance analysis can be used in cases of moderate non-normality and it still provides a good approximation of the expected utility, but it may be ineffective under large departure from normality. Higher moments models and median models have been suggested in the literature for asset allocation in this case. Higher moments models have been introduced to account for the insufficiency of the description of a portfolio by only its first two moments while the median model has been introduced as a robust statistic which is less affected by outliers than the mean. Tail risk measures such as Value-at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) have been introduced instead of Variance to capture the effect of risk. In this research, higher moment models including the Mean-Variance-Skewness (MVS) and Mean-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis (MVSK) are formulated as single-objective non-linear programming problems (NLP) and median models including the Median-Value at Risk (MedVaR) and Median-Mean Absolute Deviation (MedMAD) are formulated as a single-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems. The higher moment models and median models are compared to some benchmark portfolios and tested on real financial data in the Egyptian main Index EGX30. The results show that all the median models outperform the higher moment models were they provide higher final wealth for the investor over the entire period of study. In addition, the results have confirmed the inapplicability of the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance to the Egyptian stock market as it resulted in very low realized profits.

Keywords: Egyptian stock exchange, emerging markets, higher moment models, median models, mixed-integer linear programming, non-linear programming

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23662 The Influence of Covariance Hankel Matrix Dimension on Algorithms for VARMA Models

Authors: Celina Pestano-Gabino, Concepcion Gonzalez-Concepcion, M. Candelaria Gil-Fariña

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Some estimation methods for VARMA models, and Multivariate Time Series Models in general, rely on the use of a Hankel matrix. It is known that if the data sample is populous enough and the dimension of the Hankel matrix is unnecessarily large, this may result in an unnecessary number of computations as well as in numerical problems. In this sense, the aim of this paper is two-fold. First, we provide some theoretical results for these matrices which translate into a lower dimension for the matrices normally used in the algorithms. This contribution thus serves to improve those methods from a numerical and, presumably, statistical point of view. Second, we have chosen an estimation algorithm to illustrate in practice our improvements. The results we obtained in a simulation of VARMA models show that an increase in the size of the Hankel matrix beyond the theoretical bound proposed as valid does not necessarily lead to improved practical results. Therefore, for future research, we propose conducting similar studies using any of the linear system estimation methods that depend on Hankel matrices.

Keywords: covariances Hankel matrices, Kronecker indices, system identification, VARMA models

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23661 The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Human Rights Development

Authors: Kerols Seif Said Botros

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The relationship between development and human rights has been debated for a long time. Various principles, from the right to development to development-based human rights, are applied to understand the dynamics between these two concepts. Despite the measures calculated, the connection between enhancement and human rights remains vague. Despite, the connection between these two opinions and the need to strengthen human rights have increased in recent years. It will then be examined whether the right to sustainable development is acceptable or not. In various human rights instruments and this is a good vibe to the request cited above. The book then cites domestic and international human rights treaties, as well as jurisprudence and regulations defining human rights institutions, to support this view.

Keywords: sustainable development, human rights, the right to development, the human rights-based approach to development, environmental rights, economic development, social sustainability human rights protection, human rights violations, workers’ rights, justice, security.

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23660 Impact of Artificial Intelligence Technologies on Information-Seeking Behaviors and the Need for a New Information Seeking Model

Authors: Mohammed Nasser Al-Suqri

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Former information-seeking models are proposed more than two decades ago. These already existed models were given prior to the evolution of digital information era and Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. Lack of current information seeking models within Library and Information Studies resulted in fewer advancements for teaching students about information-seeking behaviors, design of library tools and services. In order to better facilitate the aforementioned concerns, this study aims to propose state-of-the-art model while focusing on the information seeking behavior of library users in the Sultanate of Oman. This study aims for the development, designing and contextualizing the real-time user-centric information seeking model capable of enhancing information needs and information usage along with incorporating critical insights for the digital library practices. Another aim is to establish far-sighted and state-of-the-art frame of reference covering Artificial Intelligence (AI) while synthesizing digital resources and information for optimizing information-seeking behavior. The proposed study is empirically designed based on a mix-method process flow, technical surveys, in-depth interviews, focus groups evaluations and stakeholder investigations. The study data pool is consist of users and specialist LIS staff at 4 public libraries and 26 academic libraries in Oman. The designed research model is expected to facilitate LIS by assisting multi-dimensional insights with AI integration for redefining the information-seeking process, and developing a technology rich model.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, information seeking, information behavior, information seeking models, libraries, Sultanate of Oman

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23659 The Effect of Voice Recognition Dictation Software on Writing Quality in Third Grade Students: An Action Research Study

Authors: Timothy J. Grebec

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This study investigated whether using a voice dictation software program (i.e., Google Voice Typing) has an impact on student writing quality. The research took place in a third-grade general education classroom in a suburban school setting. Because the study involved minors, all data was encrypted and deidentified before analysis. The students completed a series of writings prior to the beginning of the intervention to determine their thoughts and skill level with writing. During the intervention phase, the students were introduced to the voice dictation software, given an opportunity to practice using it, and then assigned writing prompts to be completed using the software. The prompts written by nineteen student participants and surveys of student opinions on writing established a baseline for the study. The data showed that using the dictation software resulted in a 34% increase in the response quality (compared to the Pennsylvania State Standardized Assessment [PSSA] writing guidelines). Of particular interest was the increase in students' proficiency in demonstrating mastery of the English language and conventions and elaborating on the content. Although this type of research is relatively no, it has the potential to reshape the strategies educators have at their disposal when instructing students on written language.

Keywords: educational technology, accommodations, students with disabilities, writing instruction, 21st century education

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23658 NanoSat MO Framework: Simulating a Constellation of Satellites with Docker Containers

Authors: César Coelho, Nikolai Wiegand

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The advancement of nanosatellite technology has opened new avenues for cost-effective and faster space missions. The NanoSat MO Framework (NMF) from the European Space Agency (ESA) provides a modular and simpler approach to the development of flight software and operations of small satellites. This paper presents a methodology using the NMF together with Docker for simulating constellations of satellites. By leveraging Docker containers, the software environment of individual satellites can be easily replicated within a simulated constellation. This containerized approach allows for rapid deployment, isolation, and management of satellite instances, facilitating comprehensive testing and development in a controlled setting. By integrating the NMF lightweight simulator in the container, a comprehensive simulation environment was achieved. A significant advantage of using Docker containers is their inherent scalability, enabling the simulation of hundreds or even thousands of satellites with minimal overhead. Docker's lightweight nature ensures efficient resource utilization, allowing for deployment on a single host or across a cluster of hosts. This capability is crucial for large-scale simulations, such as in the case of mega-constellations, where multiple traditional virtual machines would be impractical due to their higher resource demands. This ability for easy horizontal scaling based on the number of simulated satellites provides tremendous flexibility to different mission scenarios. Our results demonstrate that leveraging Docker containers with the NanoSat MO Framework provides a highly efficient and scalable solution for simulating satellite constellations, offering not only significant benefits in terms of resource utilization and operational flexibility but also enabling testing and validation of ground software for constellations. The findings underscore the importance of taking advantage of already existing technologies in computer science to create new solutions for future satellite constellations in space.

Keywords: containerization, docker containers, NanoSat MO framework, satellite constellation simulation, scalability, small satellites

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23657 Working Towards More Sustainable Food Waste: A Circularity Perspective

Authors: Rocío González-Sánchez, Sara Alonso-Muñoz

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Food waste implies an inefficient management of the final stages in the food supply chain. Referring to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by United Nations, the SDG 12.3 proposes to halve per capita food waste at the retail and consumer level and to reduce food losses. In the linear system, food waste is disposed and, to a lesser extent, recovery or reused after consumption. With the negative effect on stocks, the current food consumption system is based on ‘produce, take and dispose’ which put huge pressure on raw materials and energy resources. Therefore, greater focus on the circular management of food waste will mitigate the environmental, economic, and social impact, following a Triple Bottom Line (TBL) approach and consequently the SDGs fulfilment. A mixed methodology is used. A total sample of 311 publications from Web of Science database were retrieved. Firstly, it is performed a bibliometric analysis by SciMat and VOSviewer software to visualise scientific maps about co-occurrence analysis of keywords and co-citation analysis of journals. This allows for the understanding of the knowledge structure about this field, and to detect research issues. Secondly, a systematic literature review is conducted regarding the most influential articles in years 2020 and 2021, coinciding with the most representative period under study. Thirdly, to support the development of this field it is proposed an agenda according to the research gaps identified about circular economy and food waste management. Results reveal that the main topics are related to waste valorisation, the application of waste-to-energy circular model and the anaerobic digestion process towards fossil fuels replacement. It is underlined that the use of food as a source of clean energy is receiving greater attention in the literature. There is a lack of studies about stakeholders’ awareness and training. In addition, available data would facilitate the implementation of circular principles for food waste recovery, management, and valorisation. The research agenda suggests that circularity networks with suppliers and customers need to be deepened. Technological tools for the implementation of sustainable business models, and greater emphasis on social aspects through educational campaigns are also required. This paper contributes on the application of circularity to food waste management by abandoning inefficient linear models. Shedding light about trending topics in the field guiding to scholars for future research opportunities.

Keywords: bibliometric analysis, circular economy, food waste management, future research lines

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23656 Reservoir Potential, Net Pay Zone and 3D Modeling of Cretaceous Clastic Reservoir in Eastern Sulieman Belt Pakistan

Authors: Hadayat Ullah, Pervez Khalid, Saad Ahmed Mashwani, Zaheer Abbasi, Mubashir Mehmood, Muhammad Jahangir, Ehsan ul Haq

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The aim of the study is to explore subsurface structures through data that is acquired from the seismic survey to delineate the characteristics of the reservoir through petrophysical analysis. Ghazij Shale of Eocene age is regional seal rock in this field. In this research work, 3D property models of subsurface were prepared by applying Petrel software to identify various lithologies and reservoir fluids distribution throughout the field. The 3D static modeling shows a better distribution of the discrete and continuous properties in the field. This model helped to understand the reservoir properties and enhance production by selecting the best location for future drilling. A complete workflow is proposed for formation evaluation, electrofacies modeling, and structural interpretation of the subsurface geology. Based on the wireline logs, it is interpreted that the thickness of the Pab Sandstone varies from 250 m to 350 m in the entire study area. The sandstone is massive with high porosity and intercalated layers of shales. Faulted anticlinal structures are present in the study area, which are favorable for the accumulation of hydrocarbon. 3D structural models and various seismic attribute models were prepared to analyze the reservoir character of this clastic reservoir. Based on wireline logs and seismic data, clean sand, shaly sand, and shale are marked as dominant facies in the study area. However, clean sand facies are more favorable to act as a potential net pay zone.

Keywords: cretaceous, pab sandstone, petrophysics, electrofacies, hydrocarbon

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23655 Porcelain Paste Processing by Robocasting 3D: Parameters Tuning

Authors: A. S. V. Carvalho, J. Luis, L. S. O. Pires, J. M. Oliveira

Abstract:

Additive manufacturing technologies (AM) experienced a remarkable growth in the latest years due to the development and diffusion of a wide range of three-dimensional (3D) printing techniques. Nowadays we can find techniques available for non-industrial users, like fused filament fabrication, but techniques like 3D printing, polyjet, selective laser sintering and stereolithography are mainly spread in the industry. Robocasting (R3D) shows a great potential due to its ability to shape materials with a wide range of viscosity. Industrial porcelain compositions showing different rheological behaviour can be prepared and used as candidate materials to be processed by R3D. The use of this AM technique in industry is very residual. In this work, a specific porcelain composition with suitable rheological properties will be processed by R3D, and a systematic study of the printing parameters tuning will be shown. The porcelain composition was formulated based on an industrial spray dried porcelain powder. The powder particle size and morphology was analysed. The powders were mixed with water and an organic binder on a ball mill at 200 rpm/min for 24 hours. The batch viscosity was adjusted by the addition of an acid solution and mixed again. The paste density, viscosity, zeta potential, particle size distribution and pH were determined. In a R3D system, different speed and pressure settings were studied to access their impact on the fabrication of porcelain models. These models were dried at 80 °C, during 24 hours and sintered in air at 1350 °C for 2 hours. The stability of the models, its walls and surface quality were studied and their physical properties were accessed. The microstructure and layer adhesion were observed by SEM. The studied processing parameters have a high impact on the models quality. Moreover, they have a high impact on the stacking of the filaments. The adequate tuning of the parameters has a huge influence on the final properties of the porcelain models. This work contributes to a better assimilation of AM technologies in ceramic industry. Acknowledgments: The RoboCer3D project – project of additive rapid manufacturing through 3D printing ceramic material (POCI-01-0247-FEDER-003350) financed by Compete 2020, PT 2020, European Regional Development Fund – FEDER through the International and Competitive Operational Program (POCI) under the PT2020 partnership agreement.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, porcelain, robocasting, R3D

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23654 Energy Consumption Models for Electric Vehicles: Survey and Proposal of a More Realistic Model

Authors: I. Sagaama, A. Kechiche, W. Trojet, F. Kamoun

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Replacing combustion engine vehicles by electric vehicles (EVs) is a major step in recent years due to their potential benefits. Battery autonomy and charging processes are still a big issue for that kind of vehicles. Therefore, reducing the energy consumption of electric vehicles becomes a necessity. Many researches target introducing recent information and communication technologies in EVs in order to propose reducing energy consumption services. Evaluation of realistic scenarios is a big challenge nowadays. In this paper, we will elaborate a state of the art of different proposed energy consumption models in the literature, then we will present a comparative study of these models, finally, we will extend previous works in order to propose an accurate and realistic energy model for calculating instantaneous power consumption of electric vehicles.

Keywords: electric vehicle, vehicular networks, energy models, traffic simulation

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23653 Generation of 3d Models Obtained with Low-Cost RGB and Thermal Sensors Mounted on Drones

Authors: Julio Manuel De Luis Ruiz, Javier Sedano Cibrián, RubéN Pérez Álvarez, Raúl Pereda García, Felipe Piña García

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Nowadays it is common to resort to aerial photography to carry out the prospection and/or exploration of archaeological sites. In this sense, the classic 3D models are being applied to investigate the direction towards which the generally subterranean structures of an archaeological site may continue and therefore, to help in making the decisions that define the location of new excavations. In recent years, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have been applied as the vehicles that carry the sensor. This implies certain advantages, such as the possibility of including low-cost sensors, given that these vehicles can carry the sensor at relatively low altitudes. Due to this, low-cost dual sensors have recently begun to be used. This new equipment can collaborate with classic Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) in the exploration of archaeological sites, but this entails the need for a methodological setting to optimise the acquisition, processing and exploitation of the information provided by low-cost dual sensors. This research focuses on the design of an appropriate workflow to obtain 3D models with low-cost sensors carried on UAVs, both in the RGB and thermal domains. All the foregoing has been applied to the archaeological site of Juliobriga, located in Cantabria (Spain).

Keywords: process optimization, RGB models, thermal models, , UAV, workflow

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23652 Estimation Atmospheric parameters for Weather Study and Forecast over Equatorial Regions Using Ground-Based Global Position System

Authors: Asmamaw Yehun, Tsegaye Kassa, Addisu Hunegnaw, Martin Vermeer

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There are various models to estimate the neutral atmospheric parameter values, such as in-suite and reanalysis datasets from numerical models. Accurate estimated values of the atmospheric parameters are useful for weather forecasting and, climate modeling and monitoring of climate change. Recently, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements have been applied for atmospheric sounding due to its robust data quality and wide horizontal and vertical coverage. The Global Positioning System (GPS) solutions that includes tropospheric parameters constitute a reliable set of data to be assimilated into climate models. The objective of this paper is, to estimate the neutral atmospheric parameters such as Wet Zenith Delay (WZD), Precipitable Water Vapour (PWV) and Total Zenith Delay (TZD) using six selected GPS stations in the equatorial regions, more precisely, the Ethiopian GPS stations from 2012 to 2015 observational data. Based on historic estimated GPS-derived values of PWV, we forecasted the PWV from 2015 to 2030. During data processing and analysis, we applied GAMIT-GLOBK software packages to estimate the atmospheric parameters. In the result, we found that the annual averaged minimum values of PWV are 9.72 mm for IISC and maximum 50.37 mm for BJCO stations. The annual averaged minimum values of WZD are 6 cm for IISC and maximum 31 cm for BDMT stations. In the long series of observations (from 2012 to 2015), we also found that there is a trend and cyclic patterns of WZD, PWV and TZD for all stations.

Keywords: atmosphere, GNSS, neutral atmosphere, precipitable water vapour

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23651 Exploration of Building Information Modelling Software to Develop Modular Coordination Design Tool for Architects

Authors: Muhammad Khairi bin Sulaiman

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The utilization of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in the construction industry has provided an opportunity for designers in the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) industry to proceed from the conventional method of using manual drafting to a way that creates alternative designs quickly, produces more accurate, reliable and consistent outputs. By using BIM Software, designers can create digital content that manipulates the use of data using the parametric model of BIM. With BIM software, more alternative designs can be created quickly and design problems can be explored further to produce a better design faster than conventional design methods. Generally, BIM is used as a documentation mechanism and has not been fully explored and utilised its capabilities as a design tool. Relative to the current issue, Modular Coordination (MC) design as a sustainable design practice is encouraged since MC design will reduce material wastage through standard dimensioning, pre-fabrication, repetitive, modular construction and components. However, MC design involves a complex process of rules and dimensions. Therefore, a tool is needed to make this process easier. Since the parameters in BIM can easily be manipulated to follow MC rules and dimensioning, thus, the integration of BIM software with MC design is proposed for architects during the design stage. With this tool, there will be an improvement in acceptance and practice in the application of MC design effectively. Consequently, this study will analyse and explore the function and customization of BIM objects and the capability of BIM software to expedite the application of MC design during the design stage for architects. With this application, architects will be able to create building models and locate objects within reference modular grids that adhere to MC rules and dimensions. The parametric modeling capabilities of BIM will also act as a visual tool that will further enhance the automation of the 3-Dimensional space planning modeling process. (Method) The study will first analyze and explore the parametric modeling capabilities of rule-based BIM objects, which eventually customize a reference grid within the rules and dimensioning of MC. Eventually, the approach will further enhance the architect's overall design process and enable architects to automate complex modeling, which was nearly impossible before. A prototype using a residential quarter will be modeled. A set of reference grids guided by specific MC rules and dimensions will be used to develop a variety of space planning and configuration. With the use of the design, the tool will expedite the design process and encourage the use of MC Design in the construction industry.

Keywords: building information modeling, modular coordination, space planning, customization, BIM application, MC space planning

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23650 Recognition of Cursive Arabic Handwritten Text Using Embedded Training Based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs)

Authors: Rabi Mouhcine, Amrouch Mustapha, Mahani Zouhir, Mammass Driss

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a system for offline recognition cursive Arabic handwritten text based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). The system is analytical without explicit segmentation used embedded training to perform and enhance the character models. Extraction features preceded by baseline estimation are statistical and geometric to integrate both the peculiarities of the text and the pixel distribution characteristics in the word image. These features are modelled using hidden Markov models and trained by embedded training. The experiments on images of the benchmark IFN/ENIT database show that the proposed system improves recognition.

Keywords: recognition, handwriting, Arabic text, HMMs, embedded training

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23649 A Web-Based Real Property Updating System for Efficient and Sustainable Urban Development: A Case Study in Ethiopia

Authors: Eyosiyas Aga

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The development of information communication technology has transformed the paper-based mapping and land registration processes to a computerized and networked system. The computerization and networking of real property information system play a vital role in good governance and sustainable development of emerging countries through cost effective, easy and accessible service delivery for the customer. The efficient, transparent and sustainable real property system is becoming the basic infrastructure for the urban development thus improve the data management system and service delivery in the organizations. In Ethiopia, the real property administration is paper based as a result, it confronted problems of data management, illegal transactions, corruptions, and poor service delivery. In order to solve this problem and to facilitate real property market, the implementation of web-based real property updating system is crucial. A web-based real property updating is one of the automation (computerizations) methods to facilitate data sharing, reduce time and cost of the service delivery in real property administration system. In additions, it is useful for the integration of data onto different information systems and organizations. This system is designed by combining open source software which supported by open Geo-spatial consortium. The web-based system is mainly designed by using open source software with the help of open Geo-spatial Consortium. The Open Geo-spatial Consortium standards such as the Web Feature Service and Web Map Services are the most widely used standards to support and improves web-based real property updating. These features allow the integration of data from different sources, and it can be used to maintain consistency of data throughout transactions. The PostgreSQL and Geoserver are used to manage and connect a real property data to the flex viewer and user interface. The system is designed for both internal updating system (municipality); which is mainly updating of spatial and textual information, and the external system (customer) which focus on providing and interacting with the customer. This research assessed the potential of open source web applications and adopted this technology for real property updating system in Ethiopia through simple, cost effective and secured way. The system is designed by combining and customizing open source software to enhance the efficiency of the system in cost effective way. The existing workflow for real property updating is analyzed to identify the bottlenecks, and the new workflow is designed for the system. The requirement is identified through questionnaire and literature review, and the system is prototype for the study area. The research mainly aimed to integrate human resource with technology in designing of the system to reduce data inconsistency and security problems. In additions, the research reflects on the current situation of real property administration and contributions of effective data management system for efficient, transparent and sustainable urban development in Ethiopia.

Keywords: cadaster, real property, sustainable, transparency, web feature service, web map service

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23648 Comparison of the Distillation Curve Obtained Experimentally with the Curve Extrapolated by a Commercial Simulator

Authors: Lívia B. Meirelles, Erika C. A. N. Chrisman, Flávia B. de Andrade, Lilian C. M. de Oliveira

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True Boiling Point distillation (TBP) is one of the most common experimental techniques for the determination of petroleum properties. This curve provides information about the performance of petroleum in terms of its cuts. The experiment is performed in a few days. Techniques are used to determine the properties faster with a software that calculates the distillation curve when a little information about crude oil is known. In order to evaluate the accuracy of distillation curve prediction, eight points of the TBP curve and specific gravity curve (348 K and 523 K) were inserted into the HYSYS Oil Manager, and the extended curve was evaluated up to 748 K. The methods were able to predict the curve with the accuracy of 0.6%-9.2% error (Software X ASTM), 0.2%-5.1% error (Software X Spaltrohr).

Keywords: distillation curve, petroleum distillation, simulation, true boiling point curve

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23647 Flood Predicting in Karkheh River Basin Using Stochastic ARIMA Model

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R2).

Keywords: time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh river

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23646 Smart Cities, Morphology of the Uncertain: A Study on Development Processes Applied by Amazonian Cities in Ecuador

Authors: Leonardo Coloma

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The world changes constantly, every second its properties vary due either natural factors or human intervention. As the most intelligent creatures on the planet, human beings have transformed the environment and paradoxically –have allowed ‘mother nature’ to lose species, accelerate the processes of climate change, the deterioration of the ozone layer, among others. The rapid population growth, the procurement, administration and distribution of resources, waste management, and technological advances are some of the factors that boost urban sprawl whose gray stain extends over the territory, facing challenges such as pollution, overpopulation and scarcity of resources. In Ecuador, these problems are added to the social, cultural, economic and political anomalies that have historically affected it. This fact can represent a greater delay when trying to solve global problems, without having paid attention to local inconveniences –smaller ones, but ones that could be the key to project smart solutions on bigger ones. This research aims to highlight the main characteristics of the development models adopted by two Amazonian cities, and analyze the impact of such urban growth on society; to finally define the parameters that would allow the development of an intelligent city in Ecuador, prepared for the challenges of the XXI Century. Contrasts in the climate, temperature, and landscape of Ecuadorian cities are fused with the cultural diversity of its people, generating a multiplicity of nuances of an indecipherable wealth. However, we strive to apply development models that do not recognize that wealth, not understanding them and ignoring that their proposals will vary according to where they are applied. Urban plans seem to take a bit of each of the new theories and proposals of development, which, in the encounter with the informal growth of cities, with those excluded and ‘isolated’ societies, generate absurd morphologies - where the uncertain becomes tangible. The desire to project smart cities is ever growing, but it is important to consider that this concept does not only have to do with the use of information and communication technologies. Its success is achieved when advances in science and technology allow the establishment of a better relationship between people and their context (natural and built). As a research methodology, urban analysis through mappings, diagrams and geographical studies, as well as the identification of sensorial elements when living the city, will make evident the shortcomings of the urban models adopted by certain populations of the Ecuadorian Amazon. Following the vision of previous investigations started since 2014 as part of ‘Centro de Acciones Urbanas,’ the results of this study will encourage the dialogue between the city (as a physical fact) and those who ‘make the city’ (people as its main actors). This research will allow the development of workshops and meetings with different professionals, organizations and individuals in general.

Keywords: Latin American cities, smart cities, urban development, urban morphology, urban sprawl

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23645 The Specificity of Employee Development in Polish Small Enterprises

Authors: E. Rak

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The aim of the paper is to identify some of the specific characteristics of employee development, as observed in the practice of small enterprises in Poland. Results suggest that a sizeable percentage of employers are not interested in improving the development of their employee base. This aspect is often perceived as insignificant. In addition, many employers have no theoretical or practical knowledge of employee development methods. Lack of sufficient financial support is reported as third on the list of the most important barriers to employee development. Employees, on the other hand, typically offload the responsibility of initiating this type of activities onto the employer. Employee development plans are typically flexible and accommodating. The original value offered by this research comes in the form of a detailed characteristics of employee development in small enterprises, accompanied by identification of specificity of human resource development in Polish companies.

Keywords: employee development, human resources development, small enterprises, trainings

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23644 Stochastic Age-Structured Population Models

Authors: Arcady Ponosov

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Many well-known age-structured population models are derived from the celebrated McKendrick-von Foerster equation (MFE), also called the biological conservation law. A similar technique is suggested for the stochastically perturbed MFE. This technique is shown to produce stochastic versions of the deterministic population models, which appear to be very different from those one can construct by simply appending additive stochasticity to deterministic equations. In particular, it is shown that stochastic Nicholson’s blowflies model should contain both additive and multiplicative stochastic noises. The suggested transformation technique is similar to that used in the deterministic case. The difference is hidden in the formulas for the exact solutions of the simplified boundary value problem for the stochastically perturbed MFE. The analysis is also based on the theory of stochastic delay differential equations.

Keywords: boundary value problems, population models, stochastic delay differential equations, stochastic partial differential equation

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23643 A Comparative Analysis of the Performance of COSMO and WRF Models in Quantitative Rainfall Prediction

Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

Abstract:

The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events

Procedia PDF Downloads 256
23642 Initial Concept of Islamic Social Entrepreneurship: Identification of Research Gap from Existing Model

Authors: Mohd Adib Abd Muin

Abstract:

Social entrepreneurship has become a new phenomenon in a country in order to reduce social problems and eradicate poverty communities. However, the study based on Islamic social entrepreneurship from the social entrepreneurial activity is still new especially in the Islamic perspective. In addition, this research found that is lacking of model on social entrepreneurship that focus on Islamic perspective. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to identify the issues and research gap based on Islamic perspective from existing models and to develop a concept of Islamic social entrepreneurship according to Islamic perspective and Maqasid Shari’ah. The research method used in this study is literature review and comparative analysis from 11 existing models of social entrepreneurship. The research finding shows that 11 existing models on social entrepreneurship has been analyzed and it shows that the existing models on social entrepreneurship do not emphasize on Islamic perspective.

Keywords: component, social entrepreneurship, Islamic perspective, research gap

Procedia PDF Downloads 440
23641 Measurement and Analysis of Radiation Doses to Radiosensitive Organs from CT Examination of the Cervical Spine Using Radiochromic Films and Monte Carlo Simulation Based Software

Authors: Khaled Soliman, Abdullah Alrushoud, Abdulrahman Alkhalifah, Raed Albathi, Salman Altymiat

Abstract:

Radiation dose received by patients undergoing Computed Tomography (CT) examination of the cervical spine was evaluated using Gafchromic XR-QA2 films and CT-EXPO software (ver. 2.3), in order to document our clinical dose values and to compare our results with other benchmarks reported in the current literature. Radiochromic films were recently used as practical dosimetry tool that provides dose profile information not available using the standard ionisation chamber routinely used in CT dosimetry. We have developed an in-house program to use the films in order to calculate the Entrance Dose Length Product (EDLP) in (mGy.cm) and to relate the EDLP to various organ doses calculated using the CT-EXPO software. We also calculated conversion factor in (mSv/mGy.cm) relating the EDLP to the effective dose (ED) from the examination using CT-EXPO software. Variability among different types of CT scanners and dose modulation methods are reported from at least three major CT brands available at our medical institution. Our work describes the dosimetry method and results are reported. The method can be used as in-vivo dosimetry method. But this work only reports results obtained from adult female anthropomorphic Phantom studies.

Keywords: CT dosimetry, gafchromic films, XR-QA2, CT-Expo software

Procedia PDF Downloads 467
23640 Developing a Driving Simulator with a Navigation System to Measure Driver Distraction, Workload, Driving Safety and Performance

Authors: Tamer E. Yared

Abstract:

The use of driving simulators has made laboratory testing easier. It has been proven to be valid for testing driving ability by many researchers. One benefit of using driving simulators is keeping the human subjects away from traffic hazards, which drivers usually face in a real driving environment while performing a driving experiment. In this study, a driving simulator was developed with a navigation system using a game development software (Unity 3D) and C-sharp codes to measure and evaluate driving performance, safety, and workload for different driving tasks. The driving simulator hardware included a gaming steering wheel and pedals as well as a monitor to view the driving tasks. Moreover, driver distraction was evaluated by utilizing an eye-tracking system working in conjunction with the driving simulator. Twenty subjects were recruited to evaluate driver distraction, workload, driving safety, and performance, as well as provide their feedback about the driving simulator. The subjects’ feedback was obtained by filling a survey after conducting several driving tasks. The main question of that survey was asking the subjects to compare driving on the driving simulator with real driving. Furthermore, other aspects of the driving simulator were evaluated by the subjects in the survey. The survey revealed that the recruited subjects gave an average score of 7.5 out of 10 to the driving simulator when compared to real driving, where the scores ranged between 6 and 8.5. This study is a preliminary effort that opens the door for more improvements to the driving simulator in terms of hardware and software development, which will contribute significantly to driving ability testing.

Keywords: driver distraction, driving performance, driving safety, driving simulator, driving workload, navigation system

Procedia PDF Downloads 163
23639 Air Quality Analysis Using Machine Learning Models Under Python Environment

Authors: Salahaeddine Sbai

Abstract:

Air quality analysis using machine learning models is a method employed to assess and predict air pollution levels. This approach leverages the capabilities of machine learning algorithms to analyze vast amounts of air quality data and extract valuable insights. By training these models on historical air quality data, they can learn patterns and relationships between various factors such as weather conditions, pollutant emissions, and geographical features. The trained models can then be used to predict air quality levels in real-time or forecast future pollution levels. This application of machine learning in air quality analysis enables policymakers, environmental agencies, and the general public to make informed decisions regarding health, environmental impact, and mitigation strategies. By understanding the factors influencing air quality, interventions can be implemented to reduce pollution levels, mitigate health risks, and enhance overall air quality management. Climate change is having significant impacts on Morocco, affecting various aspects of the country's environment, economy, and society. In this study, we use some machine learning models under python environment to predict and analysis air quality change over North of Morocco to evaluate the climate change impact on agriculture.

Keywords: air quality, machine learning models, pollution, pollutant emissions

Procedia PDF Downloads 88
23638 An Architectural Model of Multi-Agent Systems for Student Evaluation in Collaborative Game Software

Authors: Monica Hoeldtke Pietruchinski, Andrey Ricardo Pimentel

Abstract:

The teaching of computer programming for beginners has been presented to the community as a not simple or trivial task. Several methodologies and research tools have been developed; however, the problem still remains. This paper aims to present multi-agent system architecture to be incorporated to the educational collaborative game software for teaching programming that monitors, evaluates and encourages collaboration by the participants. A literature review has been made on the concepts of Collaborative Learning, Multi-agents systems, collaborative games and techniques to teach programming using these concepts simultaneously.

Keywords: architecture of multi-agent systems, collaborative evaluation, collaboration assessment, gamifying educational software

Procedia PDF Downloads 456
23637 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models

Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 87
23636 A Review of Literature on Theories of Construction Accident Causation Models

Authors: Samuel Opeyemi Williams, Razali Bin Adul Hamid, M. S. Misnan, Taki Eddine Seghier, D. I. Ajayi

Abstract:

Construction sites are characterized with occupational risks. Review of literature on construction accidents reveals that a lot of theories have been propounded over the years by different theorists, coupled with multifarious models developed by different proponents at different times. Accidents are unplanned events that are prominent in construction sites, involving materials, objects and people with attendant damages, loses and injuries. Models were developed to investigate the causations of accident with the aim of preventing its occurrence. Though, some of these theories were criticized, most especially, the Heinrich Domino theory, being mostly faulted for placing much blame on operatives rather than the management. The purpose of this paper is to unravel the significant construction accident causation theories and models for the benefit of understanding of the theories, and consequently enabling construction stakeholders identify the possible potential hazards on construction sites, as all stakeholders have significant roles to play in preventing accident. Accidents are preventable; hence, understanding the risk factors of accident and the causation theories paves way for its prevention. However, findings reveal that still some gaps missing in the existing models, while it is recommended that further research can be made in order to develop more models in order to maintain zero accident on construction sites.

Keywords: domino theory, construction site, site safety, accident causation model

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23635 Modelling and Simulation of Diffusion Effect on the Glycol Dehydration Unit of a Natural Gas Plant

Authors: M. Wigwe, J. G Akpa, E. N Wami

Abstract:

Mathematical models of the absorber of a glycol dehydration facility was developed using the principles of conservation of mass and energy. Models which predict variation of the water content of gas in mole fraction, variation of gas and liquid temperatures across the parking height were developed. These models contain contributions from bulk and diffusion flows. The effect of diffusion on the process occurring in the absorber was studied in this work. The models were validated using the initial conditions in the plant data from Company W TEG unit in Nigeria. The results obtained showed that the effect of diffusion was noticed between z=0 and z=0.004 m. A deviation from plant data of 0% was observed for the gas water content at a residence time of 20 seconds, at z=0.004 m. Similarly, deviations of 1.584% and 2.844% were observed for the gas and TEG temperatures.

Keywords: separations, absorption, simulation, dehydration, water content, triethylene glycol

Procedia PDF Downloads 488