Search results for: cointegration approach in panel data

Authors: Desmond Wade, Alfredo Ormazabal

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Background: Ever since it commenced its registration process of pre-hospital practitioners in the year 2000 through the Irish Government Statute Instrument (SI 109 of 2000) process, the approach to education of its professionals has changed drastically. The progression from the traditional behaviouristic to the current constructivist approach has been based on experiences from other sectors and industries, nationally and internationally. Today, the delivery of a safe and efficient ambulance service heavily depends on its practitioners’ range of technical skills, academic knowledge, and overall competences. As these increase, so does the level of complexity of paramedics’ everyday practice. This has made it inevitable to consider the 'Human Factor' as a source of potential risk and made formative institutions like the National Ambulance Service College to include it in their curriculum. Methods: This paper used a mixed-method approach, where both, an online questionnaire and a set of semi-structured interviews were the source of primary data. An analysis of this data was carried out using qualitative and quantitative data analysis. Conclusions: The evidence presented leads to the conclusion that in the National Ambulance Service there is a considerable lack of education of Human Factors and the levels in understanding of how to manage Human Factors in practice vary across its spectrum. Paramedic Practitioners in Ireland seem to understand that the responsibility of patient care lies on the team, rather than on the most hierarchically senior practitioner present in the scene.

Keywords: human factors, ergonomics, stress, decision making, pre-hospital care, paramedic, education

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Authors: Butta Singh

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This paper presents a chaotic map based approach for secured embedding of patient’s confidential data in electrocardiogram (ECG) signal. The chaotic map generates predefined locations through the use of selective control parameters. The sample value difference method effectually hides the confidential data in ECG sample pairs at these predefined locations. Evaluation of proposed method on all 48 records of MIT-BIH arrhythmia ECG database demonstrates that the embedding does not alter the diagnostic features of cover ECG. The secret data imperceptibility in stego-ECG is evident through various statistical and clinical performance measures. Statistical metrics comprise of Percentage Root Mean Square Difference (PRD) and Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR). Further, a comparative analysis between proposed method and existing approaches was also performed. The results clearly demonstrated the superiority of proposed method.

Keywords: chaotic maps, ECG steganography, data embedding, electrocardiogram

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Authors: H. Moalla, A. Frikha

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Multi-criteria decision aid methods consider decision problems where numerous alternatives are evaluated on several criteria. These methods are used to deal with perfect information. However, in practice, it is obvious that this information requirement is too much strict. In fact, the imperfect data provided by more or less reliable decision makers usually affect decision results since any decision is closely linked to the quality and availability of information. In this paper, a PROMETHEE-BELIEF approach is proposed to help multi-criteria decisions based on incomplete information. This approach solves problems with incomplete decision matrix and unknown weights within PROMETHEE method. On the base of belief function theory, our approach first determines the distributions of belief masses based on PROMETHEE’s net flows and then calculates weights. Subsequently, it aggregates the distribution masses associated to each criterion using Murphy’s modified combination rule in order to infer a global belief structure. The final action ranking is obtained via pignistic probability transformation. A case study of real-world application concerning the location of a waste treatment center from healthcare activities with infectious risk in the center of Tunisia is studied to illustrate the detailed process of the BELIEF-PROMETHEE approach.

Keywords: belief function theory, incomplete information, multiple criteria analysis, PROMETHEE method

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Authors: Emmanuel Billy

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This work is in the CABRISS project (H2020 projects) which aims at developing innovative cost-effective methods for the extraction of materials from the different sources of PV waste: Si based panels, thin film panels or Si water diluted slurries. Aluminum, silicon, indium, and silver will especially be extracted from these wastes in order to constitute materials feedstock which can be used later in a closed-loop process. The extraction of metals from silicon solar cells is often an energy-intensive process. It requires either smelting or leaching at elevated temperature, or the use of large quantities of strong acids or bases that require energy to produce. The energy input equates to a significant cost and an associated CO2 footprint, both of which it would be desirable to reduce. Thus there is a need to develop more energy-efficient and environmentally-compatible processes. Thus, ‘ionometallurgy’ could offer a new set of environmentally-benign process for metallurgy. This work demonstrates that ionic liquids provide one such method since they can be used to dissolve and recover silver. The overall process associates leaching, recovery and the possibility to re-use the solution in closed-loop process. This study aims to evaluate and compare different ionic liquids to leach and recover silver. An electrochemical analysis is first implemented to define the best system for the Ag dissolution. Effects of temperature, concentration and oxidizing agent are evaluated by this approach. Further, a comparative study between conventional approach (nitric acid, thiourea) and the ionic liquids (Cu and Al) focused on the leaching efficiency is conducted. A specific attention has been paid to the selection of the Ionic Liquids. Electrolytes composed of chelating anions are used to facilitate the lixiviation (Cl, Br, I,), avoid problems dealing with solubility issues of metallic species and of classical additional ligands. This approach reduces the cost of the process and facilitates the re-use of the leaching medium. To define the most suitable ionic liquids, electrochemical experiments have been carried out to evaluate the oxidation potential of silver include in the crystalline solar cells. Then, chemical dissolution of metals for crystalline solar cells have been performed for the most promising ionic liquids. After the chemical dissolution, electrodeposition has been performed to recover silver under a metallic form.

Keywords: electrodeposition, ionometallurgy, leaching, recycling, silver

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Authors: Yang Bao, Shi Wei Deng, WangQun Lin

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This paper introduces the concept and principle of data cleaning, analyzes the types and causes of dirty data, and proposes several key steps of typical cleaning process, puts forward a well scalability and versatility data cleaning framework, in view of data with attribute dependency relation, designs several of violation data discovery algorithms by formal formula, which can obtain inconsistent data to all target columns with condition attribute dependent no matter data is structured (SQL) or unstructured (NoSQL), and gives 6 data cleaning methods based on these algorithms.

Keywords: data cleaning, dependency rules, violation data discovery, data repair

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Authors: Xiao Chen, Xiaoying Kong, Min Xu

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This paper presents a road vehicle detection approach for the intelligent transportation system. This approach mainly uses low-cost magnetic sensor and associated data collection system to collect magnetic signals. This system can measure the magnetic field changing, and it also can detect and count vehicles. We extend Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients to analyze vehicle magnetic signals. Vehicle type features are extracted using representation of cepstrum, frame energy, and gap cepstrum of magnetic signals. We design a 2-dimensional map algorithm using Vector Quantization to classify vehicle magnetic features to four typical types of vehicles in Australian suburbs: sedan, VAN, truck, and bus. Experiments results show that our approach achieves a high level of accuracy for vehicle detection and classification.

Keywords: vehicle classification, signal processing, road traffic model, magnetic sensing

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Authors: Serhat Tuzun, Tufan Demirel

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Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is the modelling of real-life to solve problems we encounter. It is a discipline that aids decision makers who are faced with conflicting alternatives to make an optimal decision. MCDM problems can be classified into two main categories: Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) and Multi-Objective Decision Making (MODM), based on the different purposes and different data types. Although various MADM techniques were developed for the problems encountered, their methodology is limited in modelling real-life. Moreover, objective results are hard to obtain, and the findings are generally derived from subjective data. Although, new and modified techniques are developed by presenting new approaches such as fuzzy logic; comprehensive techniques, even though they are better in modelling real-life, could not find a place in real world applications for being hard to apply due to its complex structure. These constraints restrict the development of MADM. This study aims to conduct a comprehensive analysis of preference methods in MADM and propose an approach based on information. For this purpose, a detailed literature review has been conducted, current approaches with their advantages and disadvantages have been analyzed. Then, the approach has been introduced. In this approach, performance values of the criteria are calculated in two steps: first by determining the distribution of each attribute and standardizing them, then calculating the information of each attribute as informational energy.

Keywords: literature review, multi-attribute decision making, operations research, preference method, informational energy

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Authors: Saqib Amina, Waqas Mehmoodb, Iftikhar Yasinc

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This study analyzes the robust association between ethnic violence and mental health from a global perspective (201-countries across the world) by using the panel data for the period 1970 to 2020. Mental health has been determined through various dimensions such as mental disorders, anxiety disorder, depressive disorder, schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder. The empirical findings show that ethnic violence has a significant positive association with all types of mental health indicators, including mental disorders, anxiety disorder, depressive disorder, schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder. The study also reveals that institutional quality may reduce the effect of mental health disorders in a better way than promoting democracy. This study suggests the non-stigmatizing social form of community-based support services instead of a stigmatizing the concept of mental illnesses that promotes hospitalization and drug treatment.

Keywords: ethnic violence, unemployment, mental health, violence

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Authors: Emna Benmohamed, Hela Ltifi, Mounir Ben Ayed

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Bayesian Network (BN) is one of the most efficient classification methods. It is widely used in several fields (i.e., medical diagnostics, risk analysis, bioinformatics research). The BN is defined as a probabilistic graphical model that represents a formalism for reasoning under uncertainty. This classification method has a high-performance rate in the extraction of new knowledge from data. The construction of this model consists of two phases for structure learning and parameter learning. For solving this problem, the K2 algorithm is one of the representative data-driven algorithms, which is based on score and search approach. In addition, the integration of the expert's knowledge in the structure learning process allows the obtainment of the highest accuracy. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach combining the improvement of the K2 algorithm called K2 algorithm for Parents and Children search (K2PC) and the expert-driven method for learning the structure of BN. The evaluation of the experimental results, using the well-known benchmarks, proves that our K2PC algorithm has better performance in terms of correct structure detection. The real application of our model shows its efficiency in the analysis of the phosphate laundry effluents' impact on the watershed in the Gafsa area (southwestern Tunisia).

Keywords: Bayesian network, classification, expert knowledge, structure learning, surface water analysis

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Authors: Roshani S. Golhar, Neerajkumar S. Sathawane, Snehal Dongre

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Background and objectives: As the, cardiovascular illnesses increasing and becoming cause of mortality worldwide, killing around lot of people each year. Arrhythmia is a type of cardiac illness characterized by a change in the linearity of the heartbeat. The goal of this study is to develop novel deep learning algorithms for successfully interpreting arrhythmia using a single second segment. Because the ECG signal indicates unique electrical heart activity across time, considerable changes between time intervals are detected. Such variances, as well as the limited number of learning data available for each arrhythmia, make standard learning methods difficult, and so impede its exaggeration. Conclusions: The proposed method was able to outperform several state-of-the-art methods. Also proposed technique is an effective and convenient approach to deep learning for heartbeat interpretation, that could be probably used in real-time healthcare monitoring systems

Keywords: electrocardiogram, ECG classification, neural networks, convolutional neural networks, portable document format

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Authors: Asma Ameur, Dhafer Malouche

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Nowadays, user comments on the Internet have an important impact on hotel bookings. This confirms that the e-reputation issue can influence the likelihood of customer loyalty to a hotel. In this way, e-reputation has become a real differentiator between hotels. For this reason, we have a unique opportunity in the opinion mining field to analyze the comments. In fact, this field provides the possibility of extracting information related to the polarity of user reviews. This sentimental study (Opinion Mining) represents a new line of research for analyzing the unstructured textual data. Knowing the score of e-reputation helps the hotelier to better manage his marketing strategy. The score we then obtain is translated into the image of hotels to differentiate between them. Therefore, this present research highlights the importance of hotel satisfaction ‘scoring. To calculate the satisfaction score, the sentimental analysis can be manipulated by several techniques of machine learning. In fact, this study treats the extracted textual data by using the Artificial Neural Networks Approach (ANNs). In this context, we adopt the aforementioned technique to extract information from the comments available in the ‘Trip Advisor’ website. This actual paper details the description and the modeling of the ANNs approach for the scoring of online hotel reviews. In summary, the validation of this used method provides a significant model for hotel sentiment analysis. So, it provides the possibility to determine precisely the polarity of the hotel users reviews. The empirical results show that the ANNs are an accurate approach for sentiment analysis. The obtained results show also that this proposed approach serves to the dimensionality reduction for textual data’ clustering. Thus, this study provides researchers with a useful exploration of this technique. Finally, we outline guidelines for future research in the hotel e-reputation field as comparing the ANNs with other technique.

Keywords: clustering, consumer behavior, data mining, e-reputation, machine learning, neural network, online hotel ‘reviews, opinion mining, scoring

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Authors: Farhad Imanshoar

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The regime or equilibrium geometry of alluvial rivers remains a topic of fundamental scientific and engineering interest. There are several approaches to analyze the problem, namely: empirical formulas, semi-theoretical methods and rational (extreme) procedures. However, none of them is widely accepted at present, due to lack of knowledge of some physical processes associated with channel formation and the simplification hypotheses imposed in order to reduce the high quantity of involved variables. The study presented in this paper shows a new approach to estimate stable width and depth of sand-bed rivers by using developed stream power equation (DSPE). At first, a new procedure based on theoretical analysis and by considering DSPE and ultimate sediment concentration were developed. Then, experimental data for regime condition in sand-bed rivers (flow depth, flow width, sediment feed rate for several cases) were gathered. Finally, the results of this research (regime equations) are compared with the field data and other regime equations. A good agreement was observed between the field data and the values resulted from developed regime equation.

Keywords: regime equations, developed stream power equation, sand-bed rivers, semi-theoretical methods

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Authors: Ryan Tehini

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The purpose of this paper is to explore the value of practical experience with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) as a microcosm of mental disorders, in psychology students’ attempt to fully understand it in all of its intricacies. The study follows a one-year program where students of psychology volunteer at a school for Autistic children of ages 3-18. The individual levels of experience with, and theoretical understanding of, ASD varies measurably amongst the volunteers; these volunteers are then intermittently interviewed, observed and surveyed throughout the program in order to determine any decline or growth in their understanding of Autism Spectrum Disorder. A panel of professionals all of whom are active in the world of ASD (headmasters of Autistic schools, psychologists, child development specialists, special needs teachers, parents of autistic children and Occupational Therapists) were used specifically for this study, in order to develop the guideline for understanding ASD that will be used comparatively against the information gained from the volunteers in order to establish the individual results. The paper concludes by illustrating how psychology has a responsibility to the community to understand disorders past what is academic and theoretical, and how increasing student experience with a disorder can aid in a more holistic psychological approach to mental disorders in the future.

Keywords: autism, mental disorders, practical experience, psychology

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Authors: Kaddi Mohammed, A. Benatiallah, D. Benatiallah

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Data grid is a technology that has full emergence of new challenges, such as the heterogeneity and availability of various resources and geographically distributed, fast data access, minimizing latency and fault tolerance. Researchers interested in this technology address the problems of the various systems related to the industry such as task scheduling, load balancing and replication. The latter is an effective solution to achieve good performance in terms of data access and grid resources and better availability of data cost. In a system with duplication, a coherence protocol is used to impose some degree of synchronization between the various copies and impose some order on updates. In this project, we present an approach for placing replicas to minimize the cost of response of requests to read or write, and we implement our model in a simulation environment. The placement techniques are based on a cost model which depends on several factors, such as bandwidth, data size and storage nodes.

Keywords: response time, query, consistency, bandwidth, storage capacity, CERN

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Authors: Dian Hartiningsih, Miranda Diponegoro, Evita Eddie Singgih

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In facing the 21st century, children need to be prepared in reaching their optimum development level which encompasses all aspect of growth and to achieve the learning goals which include not only knowledge and skill, but also disposition and feeling. Teachers as the forefront of education need to be equipped with the understanding and skill of a learning method which can prepare the children to face this 21st century challenge. Project approach is an approach which utilizes active learning which is beneficial for the children. Subject to this research are kindergarten teachers at Dwi Matra Kindergarten and Kirana Preschool. This research is a quantitative research using before and after study design. The result suggest that through preliminary training program on learning with project approach, the kindergarten teachers ability to explain project approach including understanding, benefit and stages of project approach have increased significantly, the teachers ability to design learning with project approach have also improved significantly. The result of learning design that the teachers had made shows a remarkable result for the first stage of the project approach; however the second and third design result was not as optimal. Challenges faced in the research will be elaborated further in the research discussion.

Keywords: project approach, teacher training, learning method, kindergarten

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Authors: R. K. Apalowo, D. Chronopoulos, V. Thierry

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There exist a wide range of failure modes in composite structures due to the increased usage of the structures especially in aerospace industry. Moreover, temperature dependent wave response of composite and layered structures have been continuously studied, though still limited, in the last decade mainly due to the broad operating temperature range of aerospace structures. A wave finite element (WFE) and finite element (FE) based computational method is presented by which the temperature dependent wave dispersion characteristics and interaction phenomenon in composite structures can be predicted. Initially, the temperature dependent mechanical properties of the panel in the range of -100 ◦C to 150 ◦C are measured experimentally using the Thermal Mechanical Analysis (TMA). Temperature dependent wave dispersion characteristics of each waveguide of the structural system, which is discretized as a system of a number of waveguides coupled by a coupling element, is calculated using the WFE approach. The wave scattering properties, as a function of temperature, is determined by coupling the WFE wave characteristics models of the waveguides with the full FE modelling of the coupling element on which defect is included. Numerical case studies are exhibited for two waveguides coupled through a coupling element.

Keywords: finite element, temperature dependency, wave dispersion characteristics, wave finite element, wave scattering properties

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Authors: Mayada Attia Ibrahim

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Evaluating and developing the electroplating production process is a key challenge in this type of process. The process is influenced by several factors such as process parameters, process costs, and production environments. Analyzing and optimizing all these factors together requires extensive analytical techniques that are not available in real-case industrial entities. This paper presents a practice-based framework for the evaluation and optimization of some of the crucial factors that affect the costs and production times associated with this type of process, energy costs, material costs, and product flow times. The proposed approach uses Design of Experiments, Discrete-Event Simulation, and Theory of Constraints were respectively used to identify the most significant factors affecting the production process and simulate a real production line to recognize the effect of these factors and assign possible bottlenecks. Several scenarios are generated as corrective strategies for improving the production line. Following that, data envelopment analysis CCR input-oriented DEA model is used to evaluate and optimize the suggested scenarios.

Keywords: electroplating process, simulation, design of experiment, performance optimization, theory of constraints, data envelopment analysis

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Authors: Kunal Shah, Swati Patel

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Many real world problems involve data which can be considered as multi-label data streams. Efficient methods exist for multi-label classification in non streaming scenarios. However, learning in evolving streaming scenarios is more challenging, as the learners must be able to adapt to change using limited time and memory. Classification is used to predict class of unseen instance as accurate as possible. Multi label classification is a variant of single label classification where set of labels associated with single instance. Multi label classification is used by modern applications, such as text classification, functional genomics, image classification, music categorization etc. This paper introduces the task of multi-label classification, methods for multi-label classification and evolution measure for multi-label classification. Also, comparative analysis of multi label classification methods on the basis of theoretical study, and then on the basis of simulation was done on various data sets.

Keywords: binary relevance, concept drift, data stream mining, MLSC, multiple window with buffer

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Authors: Mehwish Azam, Muhammad Imran, Humaira Jabeen, Sumreen Begum, Rashida Qasim

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Background: Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of metabolic risk factors including obesity, glucose intolerance, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia and hypertension. Metabolic syndrome in obese and type 2 diabetic subjects increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Globally, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome ranges from 10%-50% and in Pakistan ranges from 18%-46%. The objective of the present study is to estimate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) in obese type 2 diabetic subjects by using International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) definitions. Methods: Obese type 2 diabetic subjects and normal healthy subjects of both genders were selected from diabetic clinics and hospitals of various localities of Karachi, Pakistan. The frequency of metabolic syndrome was estimated by the proposed definitions of IDF and NCEP-ATP III. Results: The prevalence of metabolic syndrome using International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definition in obese type 2 diabetic subjects was 85.7%. It is significantly higher (p<0.05) in females (47.1%) as compared to males (38.6%). While, using National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) definition the overall prevalence of metabolic syndrome in obese type 2 diabetic subjects was 75.7%, the prevalence is significantly higher (p<0.05) in females (45.7%) than males (30.0%). Conclusion: It is concluded that, the overall prevalence of metabolic syndrome is increasing significantly in obese type 2 diabetic subjects by using IDF and NCEP–ATP III definitions. Therefore, it is need to initiate the preventive measures by arranging public awareness programmes to highlight the significance of a healthy lifestyle and emphasis should be given to reduce weight, increase physical activity, and increase intake of healthy low-glycemic-index foods.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, diabetes mellitus, obesity, IDF, NCEP-ATP III

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Authors: Rui Calejo Rodrigues

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Building Refurbishing and Maintenance is a major area of knowledge ultimately dispensed to user/occupant criteria. The optimization of the service life of a building needs a special background to be assessed as it is one of those concepts that needs proficiency to be implemented. ISO 15686-2 Buildings and constructed assets - Service life planning: Part 2, Service life prediction procedures, states a factorial method based on deterministic data for building components life span. Major consequences result on a deterministic approach because users/occupants are not sensible to understand the end of components life span and so simply act on deterministic periods and so costly and resources consuming solutions do not meet global targets of planet sustainability. The estimation of 2 thousand million conventional buildings in the world, if submitted to a probabilistic method for service life planning rather than a deterministic one provide an immense amount of resources savings. Since 1989 the research team nowadays stating for CEES–Center for Building in Service Studies developed a methodology based on Montecarlo method for probabilistic approach regarding life span of building components, cost and service life care time spans. The research question of this deals with the importance of probabilistic approach of buildings life planning compared with deterministic methods. It is presented the mathematic model developed for buildings probabilistic lifespan approach and experimental data is obtained to be compared with deterministic data. Assuming that buildings lifecycle depends a lot on component replacement this methodology allows to conclude on the global impact of fixed replacements methodologies such as those on result of deterministic models usage. Major conclusions based on conventional buildings estimate are presented and evaluated under a sustainable perspective.

Keywords: building components life cycle, building maintenance, building sustainability, Montecarlo Simulation

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Authors: Haythem Yahyaoui, Samir Moalla, Mounir Bouden, Skander ghorbel

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Nowadays, Cloud environments are becoming a need for companies, this new technology gives the opportunities to access to the data anywhere and anytime, also an optimized and secured access to the resources and gives more security for the data which stored in the platform, however, some companies do not trust Cloud providers, in their point of view, providers can access and modify some confidential data such as bank accounts, many works have been done in this context, they conclude that encryption methods realized by providers ensure the confidentiality, although, they forgot that Cloud providers can decrypt the confidential resources. The best solution here is to apply some modifications on the data before sending them to the Cloud in the objective to make them unreadable. This work aims on enhancing the quality of service of providers and improving the trust of the customers.

Keywords: cloud, confidentiality, cryptography, security issues, trust issues

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Authors: Muhammad Ajmair

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This empirical study followed structural vector auto regression (SVAR) approach proposed by the so-called AB-model of Amisano and Giannini (1997) to check the impact of relevant macroeconomic determinants on economic growth in Pakistan. Before that auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing technique and time varying parametric approach along with general to specific approach was employed to find out relevant significant determinants of economic growth. To our best knowledge, no author made such a study that employed auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing and time varying parametric approach with general to specific approach in empirical literature, but current study will bridge this gap. Annual data was taken from World Development Indicators (2014) during period 1976-2014. The widely-used Schwarz information criterion and Akaike information criterion were considered for the lag length in each estimated equation. Main findings of the study are that remittances received, gross national expenditures and inflation are found to be the best relevant positive and significant determinants of economic growth. Based on these empirical findings, we conclude that government should focus on overall economic growth augmenting factors while formulating any policy relevant to the concerned sector.

Keywords: economic growth, gross national expenditures, inflation, remittances

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Authors: S. H. Arnaud Kanga, O. Hili, S. Dabo-Niang

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Spatial prediction is an issue appealing and attracting several fields such as agriculture, environmental sciences, ecology, econometrics, and many others. Although multiple non-parametric prediction methods exist for spatial data, those are based on the conditional expectation. This paper took a different approach by examining a non-parametric spatial predictor of the conditional quantile. The study especially observes the stationary multidimensional spatial process over a rectangular domain. Indeed, the proposed quantile is obtained by inverting the conditional distribution function. Furthermore, the proposed estimator of the conditional distribution function depends on three kernels, where one of them controls the distance between spatial locations, while the other two control the distance between observations. In addition, the almost complete convergence and the convergence in mean order q of the kernel predictor are obtained when the sample considered is alpha-mixing. Such approach of the prediction method gives the advantage of accuracy as it overcomes sensitivity to extreme and outliers values.

Keywords: conditional quantile, kernel, nonparametric, stationary

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Authors: Mostafa Aminzadeh, Min Deng

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Modeling loss data is an important part of actuarial science. Actuaries use models to predict future losses and manage financial risk, which can be beneficial for marketing purposes. In the insurance industry, small claims happen frequently while large claims are rare. Traditional distributions such as Normal, Exponential, and inverse-Gaussian are not suitable for describing insurance data, which often show skewness and fat tails. Several authors have studied classical and Bayesian inference for parameters of composite distributions, such as Exponential-Pareto, Weibull-Pareto, and Inverse Gamma-Pareto. These models separate small to moderate losses from large losses using a threshold parameter. This research introduces a computational approach using a nonlinear regression model for loss data that relies on multiple predictors. Simulation studies were conducted to assess the accuracy of the proposed estimation method. The simulations confirmed that the proposed method provides precise estimates for regression parameters. It's important to note that this approach can be applied to datasets if goodness-of-fit tests confirm that the composite distribution under study fits the data well. To demonstrate the computations, a real data set from the insurance industry is analyzed. A Mathematica code uses the Fisher information algorithm as an iteration method to obtain the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of regression parameters.

Keywords: maximum likelihood estimation, fisher scoring method, non-linear regression models, composite distributions

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Authors: Jackson Niyongabo

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This study addresses a notable gap in the existing literature on the relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, and CO₂ emissions, particularly within the African context. While numerous studies have explored these dynamics globally and regionally across various development levels, few have delved into the nuances of regions and income levels specific to African countries. Furthermore, the evaluation of the interplay between green growth policies, green energy technologies, and their impact on environmental quality has been underexplored. This research aims to fill these gaps by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the transition from conventional economic growth and energy consumption to a paradigm of green growth coupled with green energy utilization across the African continent from 1980 to 2018. The study is structured into three main parts: an empirical examination of the long-term effects of energy intensity, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on CO₂ emissions across diverse African regions and income levels; an estimation of the long-term impact of green growth and green energy use on CO₂ emissions for countries implementing green policies within Africa, as well as at regional and global levels; and a comparative analysis of the impact of green growth policies on environmental degradation before and after implementation. Employing advanced econometric methods and panel estimators, the study utilizes a testing framework, panel unit tests, and various estimators to derive meaningful insights. The anticipated results and conclusions will be elucidated through causality tests, impulse response, and variance decomposition analyses, contributing valuable knowledge to the discourse on sustainable development in the African context.

Keywords: economic growth, green growth, energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, econometric models, green energy

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Authors: Andrés C. Cuervo Pinilla, Christian G. Quintero M., Chinthaka Premachandra

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This paper considers people’s driving skills diagnosis under real driving conditions. In that sense, this research presents an approach that uses GPS signals which have a direct correlation with driving maneuvers. Besides, it is presented a novel expert-driving-criteria approximation using fuzzy logic which seeks to analyze GPS signals in order to issue an intelligent driving diagnosis. Based on above, this works presents in the first section the intelligent driving diagnosis system approach in terms of its own characteristics properties, explaining in detail significant considerations about how an expert-driving-criteria approximation must be developed. In the next section, the implementation of our developed system based on the proposed fuzzy logic approach is explained. Here, a proposed set of rules which corresponds to a quantitative abstraction of some traffics laws and driving secure techniques seeking to approach an expert-driving- criteria approximation is presented. Experimental testing has been performed in real driving conditions. The testing results show that the intelligent driving diagnosis system qualifies driver’s performance quantitatively with a high degree of reliability.

Keywords: driver support systems, intelligent transportation systems, fuzzy logic, real time data processing

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Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek

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In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model

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Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

Abstract:

Manufacturing companies are facing global competition and enormous cost pressure. The use of machine learning applications can help reduce production costs and create added value. Predictive quality enables the securing of product quality through data-supported predictions using machine learning models as a basis for decisions on test results. Furthermore, machine learning methods are able to process large amounts of data, deal with unfavourable row-column ratios and detect dependencies between the covariates and the given target as well as assess the multidimensional influence of all input variables on the target. Real production data are often subject to highly fluctuating boundary conditions and unbalanced data sets. Changes in production data manifest themselves in trends, systematic shifts, and seasonal effects. Thus, Machine learning applications require intensive pre-processing and feature selection. Data preprocessing includes rule-based data cleaning, the application of dimensionality reduction techniques, and the identification of comparable data subsets. Within the used real data set of Bosch hydraulic valves, the comparability of the same production conditions in the production of hydraulic valves within certain time periods can be identified by applying the concept drift method. Furthermore, a classification model is developed to evaluate the feature importance in different subsets within the identified time periods. By selecting comparable and stable features, the number of features used can be significantly reduced without a strong decrease in predictive power. The use of cross-process production data along the value chain of hydraulic valves is a promising approach to predict the quality characteristics of workpieces. In this research, the ada boosting classifier is used to predict the leakage of hydraulic valves based on geometric gauge blocks from machining, mating data from the assembly, and hydraulic measurement data from end-of-line testing. In addition, the most suitable methods are selected and accurate quality predictions are achieved.

Keywords: classification, achine learning, predictive quality, feature selection

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Authors: Apra Sinha

Abstract:

The inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) demonstrates(pollution-income relationship)that initially the pollution and environmental degradation surpass the level of income per capita; however this trend reverses since at the higher income levels, economic growth initiates environmental upgrading. However, what effect does increased environmental degradation has on growth is the missing feedback link which has not been addressed in the EKC hypothesis. This paper examines the missing feedback link in EKC hypothesis in Indian context by examining the casual association between fossil fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth for India. Fossil fuel consumption here has been taken as a proxy of driver of economic growth. The casual association between the aforementioned variables has been analyzed using five interventions namely 1) urban development for which urbanization has been taken proxy 2) industrial development for which industrial value added has been taken proxy 3) trade liberalization for which sum of exports and imports as a share of GDP has been taken as proxy 4)financial development for which a)domestic credit to private sector and b)net foreign assets has been taken as proxies. The choice of interventions for this study has been done keeping in view the economic liberalization perspective of India. The main aim of the paper is to investigate the missing feedback link for Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis before and after incorporating the intervening variables. The period of study is from 1971 to 2011 as it covers pre and post liberalization era in India. All the data has been taken from World Bank country level indicators. The Johansen and Juselius cointegration testing methodology and Error Correction based Granger causality have been applied on all the variables. The results clearly show that out of five interventions, only in two interventions the missing feedback link is being addressed. This paper can put forward significant policy implications for environment protection and sustainable development.

Keywords: environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, fossil fuel consumption, industrialization, trade liberalization, urbanization

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Authors: Belayneh Matebie, Michael Melese

Abstract:

The study focuses on addressing the challenges in classifying and ensuring the quality of Eragrostis Teff, a small and round grain that is the smallest cereal grain. Employing a traditional classification method is challenging because of its small size and the similarity of its environmental characteristics. To overcome this, this study employs a machine learning approach to develop a source and quality classification system for Teff cereal. Data is collected from various production areas in the Amhara regions, considering two types of cereal (high and low quality) across eight classes. A total of 5,920 images are collected, with 740 images for each class. Image enhancement techniques, including scaling, data augmentation, histogram equalization, and noise removal, are applied to preprocess the data. Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) is then used to extract relevant features and reduce dimensionality. The dataset is split into 80% for training and 20% for testing. Different classifiers, including FVGG16, FINCV3, QSCTC, EMQSCTC, SVM, and RF, are employed for classification, achieving accuracy rates ranging from 86.91% to 97.72%. The ensemble of FVGG16, FINCV3, and QSCTC using the Max-Voting approach outperforms individual algorithms.

Keywords: Teff, ensemble learning, max-voting, CNN, SVM, RF

Procedia PDF Downloads 57