Search results for: Grey prediction model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 18016

Search results for: Grey prediction model

17236 Experimental and Modal Determination of the State-Space Model Parameters of a Uni-Axial Shaker System for Virtual Vibration Testing

Authors: Jonathan Martino, Kristof Harri

Abstract:

In some cases, the increase in computing resources makes simulation methods more affordable. The increase in processing speed also allows real time analysis or even more rapid tests analysis offering a real tool for test prediction and design process optimization. Vibration tests are no exception to this trend. The so called ‘Virtual Vibration Testing’ offers solution among others to study the influence of specific loads, to better anticipate the boundary conditions between the exciter and the structure under test, to study the influence of small changes in the structure under test, etc. This article will first present a virtual vibration test modeling with a main focus on the shaker model and will afterwards present the experimental parameters determination. The classical way of modeling a shaker is to consider the shaker as a simple mechanical structure augmented by an electrical circuit that makes the shaker move. The shaker is modeled as a two or three degrees of freedom lumped parameters model while the electrical circuit takes the coil impedance and the dynamic back-electromagnetic force into account. The establishment of the equations of this model, describing the dynamics of the shaker, is presented in this article and is strongly related to the internal physical quantities of the shaker. Those quantities will be reduced into global parameters which will be estimated through experiments. Different experiments will be carried out in order to design an easy and practical method for the identification of the shaker parameters leading to a fully functional shaker model. An experimental modal analysis will also be carried out to extract the modal parameters of the shaker and to combine them with the electrical measurements. Finally, this article will conclude with an experimental validation of the model.

Keywords: lumped parameters model, shaker modeling, shaker parameters, state-space, virtual vibration

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17235 Deformation Severity Prediction in Sewer Pipelines

Authors: Khalid Kaddoura, Ahmed Assad, Tarek Zayed

Abstract:

Sewer pipelines are prone to deterioration over-time. In fact, their deterioration does not follow a fixed downward pattern. This is in fact due to the defects that propagate through their service life. Sewer pipeline defects are categorized into distinct groups. However, the main two groups are the structural and operational defects. By definition, the structural defects influence the structural integrity of the sewer pipelines such as deformation, cracks, fractures, holes, etc. However, the operational defects are the ones that affect the flow of the sewer medium in the pipelines such as: roots, debris, attached deposits, infiltration, etc. Yet, the process for each defect to emerge follows a cause and effect relationship. Deformation, which is the change of the sewer pipeline geometry, is one type of an influencing defect that could be found in many sewer pipelines due to many surrounding factors. This defect could lead to collapse if the percentage exceeds 15%. Therefore, it is essential to predict the deformation percentage before confronting such a situation. Accordingly, this study will predict the percentage of the deformation defect in sewer pipelines adopting the multiple regression analysis. Several factors will be considered in establishing the model, which are expected to influence the defamation defect severity. Besides, this study will construct a time-based curve to understand how the defect would evolve overtime. Thus, this study is expected to be an asset for decision-makers as it will provide informative conclusions about the deformation defect severity. As a result, inspections will be minimized and so the budgets.

Keywords: deformation, prediction, regression analysis, sewer pipelines

Procedia PDF Downloads 190
17234 Improvement of Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Gem-Hydro Streamflow Forecasting System

Authors: Etienne Gaborit, Dorothy Durnford, Daniel Deacu, Marco Carrera, Nathalie Gauthier, Camille Garnaud, Vincent Fortin

Abstract:

A new experimental streamflow forecasting system was recently implemented at the Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction (CCMEP). It relies on CaLDAS (Canadian Land Data Assimilation System) for the assimilation of surface variables, and on a surface prediction system that feeds a routing component. The surface energy and water budgets are simulated with the SVS (Soil, Vegetation, and Snow) Land-Surface Scheme (LSS) at 2.5-km grid spacing over Canada. The routing component is based on the Watroute routing scheme at 1-km grid spacing for the Great Lakes and Nelson River watersheds. The system is run in two distinct phases: an analysis part and a forecast part. During the analysis part, CaLDAS outputs are used to force the routing system, which performs streamflow assimilation. In forecast mode, the surface component is forced with the Canadian GEM atmospheric forecasts and is initialized with a CaLDAS analysis. Streamflow performances of this new system are presented over 2019. Performances are compared to the current ECCC’s operational streamflow forecasting system, which is different from the new experimental system in many aspects. These new streamflow forecasts are also compared to persistence. Overall, the new streamflow forecasting system presents promising results, highlighting the need for an elaborated assimilation phase before performing the forecasts. However, the system is still experimental and is continuously being improved. Some major recent improvements are presented here and include, for example, the assimilation of snow cover data from remote sensing, a backward propagation of assimilated flow observations, a new numerical scheme for the routing component, and a new reservoir model.

Keywords: assimilation system, distributed physical model, offline hydro-meteorological chain, short-term streamflow forecasts

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17233 Design of Geochemical Maps of Industrial City Using Gradient Boosting and Geographic Information System

Authors: Ruslan Safarov, Zhanat Shomanova, Yuri Nossenko, Zhandos Mussayev, Ayana Baltabek

Abstract:

Geochemical maps of distribution of polluting elements V, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Mo, Cd, Pb on the territory of the Pavlodar city (Kazakhstan), which is an industrial hub were designed. The samples of soil were taken from 100 locations. Elemental analysis has been performed using XRF. The obtained data was used for training of the computational model with gradient boosting algorithm. The optimal parameters of model as well as the loss function were selected. The computational model was used for prediction of polluting elements concentration for 1000 evenly distributed points. Based on predicted data geochemical maps were created. Additionally, the total pollution index Zc was calculated for every from 1000 point. The spatial distribution of the Zc index was visualized using GIS (QGIS). It was calculated that the maximum coverage area of the territory of the Pavlodar city belongs to the moderately hazardous category (89.7%). The visualization of the obtained data allowed us to conclude that the main source of contamination goes from the industrial zones where the strategic metallurgical and refining plants are placed.

Keywords: Pavlodar, geochemical map, gradient boosting, CatBoost, QGIS, spatial distribution, heavy metals

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17232 Elasto-Viscoplastic Constitutive Modelling of Slow-Moving Landslides

Authors: Deepak Raj Bhat, Kazushige Hayashi, Yorihiro Tanaka, Shigeru Ogita, Akihiko Wakai

Abstract:

Slow-moving landslides are one of the major natural disasters in mountainous regions. Therefore, study of the creep displacement behaviour of a landslide and associated geological and geotechnical issues seem important. This study has addressed and evaluated the slow-moving behaviour of landslide using the 2D-FEM based Elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model. To our based knowledge, two new control constitutive parameters were incorporated in the numerical model for the first time to better understand the slow-moving behaviour of a landslide. First, the predicted time histories of horizontal displacement of the landslide are presented and discussed, which may be useful for landslide displacement prediction in the future. Then, the simulation results of deformation pattern and shear strain pattern is presented and discussed. Moreover, the possible failure mechanism along the slip surface of such landslide is discussed based on the simulation results. It is believed that this study will be useful to understand the slow-moving behaviour of landslides, and at the same time, long-term monitoring and management of the landslide disaster will be much easier.

Keywords: numerical simulation, ground water fluctuations, elasto-viscoplastic model, slow-moving behaviour

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17231 A Particle Filter-Based Data Assimilation Method for Discrete Event Simulation

Authors: Zhi Zhu, Boquan Zhang, Tian Jing, Jingjing Li, Tao Wang

Abstract:

Data assimilation is a model and data hybrid-driven method that dynamically fuses new observation data with a numerical model to iteratively approach the real system state. It is widely used in state prediction and parameter inference of continuous systems. Because of the discrete event system’s non-linearity and non-Gaussianity, traditional Kalman Filter based on linear and Gaussian assumptions cannot perform data assimilation for such systems, so particle filter has gradually become a technical approach for discrete event simulation data assimilation. Hence, we proposed a particle filter-based discrete event simulation data assimilation method and took the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) maintenance service system as a proof of concept to conduct simulation experiments. The experimental results showed that the filtered state data is closer to the real state of the system, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method. This research can provide a reference framework for the data assimilation process of other complex nonlinear systems, such as discrete-time and agent simulation.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, data assimilation, particle filter, model and data-driven

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17230 Identification of Landslide Features Using Back-Propagation Neural Network on LiDAR Digital Elevation Model

Authors: Chia-Hao Chang, Geng-Gui Wang, Jee-Cheng Wu

Abstract:

The prediction of a landslide is a difficult task because it requires a detailed study of past activities using a complete range of investigative methods to determine the changing condition. In this research, first step, LiDAR 1-meter by 1-meter resolution of digital elevation model (DEM) was used to generate six environmental factors of landslide. Then, back-propagation neural networks (BPNN) was adopted to identify scarp, landslide areas and non-landslide areas. The BPNN uses 6 environmental factors in input layer and 1 output layer. Moreover, 6 landslide areas are used as training areas and 4 landslide areas as test areas in the BPNN. The hidden layer is set to be 1 and 2; the hidden layer neurons are set to be 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8; the learning rates are set to be 0.01, 0.1 and 0.5. When using 1 hidden layer with 7 neurons and the learning rate sets to be 0.5, the result of Network training root mean square error is 0.001388. Finally, evaluation of BPNN classification accuracy by the confusion matrix shows that the overall accuracy can reach 94.4%, and the Kappa value is 0.7464.

Keywords: digital elevation model, DEM, environmental factors, back-propagation neural network, BPNN, LiDAR

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17229 General Mathematical Framework for Analysis of Cattle Farm System

Authors: Krzysztof Pomorski

Abstract:

In the given work we present universal mathematical framework for modeling of cattle farm system that can set and validate various hypothesis that can be tested against experimental data. The presented work is preliminary but it is expected to be valid tool for future deeper analysis that can result in new class of prediction methods allowing early detection of cow dieseaes as well as cow performance. Therefore the presented work shall have its meaning in agriculture models and in machine learning as well. It also opens the possibilities for incorporation of certain class of biological models necessary in modeling of cow behavior and farm performance that might include the impact of environment on the farm system. Particular attention is paid to the model of coupled oscillators that it the basic building hypothesis that can construct the model showing certain periodic or quasiperiodic behavior.

Keywords: coupled ordinary differential equations, cattle farm system, numerical methods, stochastic differential equations

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17228 Prediction of Compressive Strength in Geopolymer Composites by Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System

Authors: Mehrzad Mohabbi Yadollahi, Ramazan Demirboğa, Majid Atashafrazeh

Abstract:

Geopolymers are highly complex materials which involve many variables which makes modeling its properties very difficult. There is no systematic approach in mix design for Geopolymers. Since the amounts of silica modulus, Na2O content, w/b ratios and curing time have a great influence on the compressive strength an ANFIS (Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) method has been established for predicting compressive strength of ground pumice based Geopolymers and the possibilities of ANFIS for predicting the compressive strength has been studied. Consequently, ANFIS can be used for geopolymer compressive strength prediction with acceptable accuracy.

Keywords: geopolymer, ANFIS, compressive strength, mix design

Procedia PDF Downloads 856
17227 Simulation the Stress Distribution of Wheel/Rail at Contact Region

Authors: Norie A. Akeel, Z. Sajuri, A. K. Ariffin

Abstract:

This paper discusses the effect of different loading analysis on crack initiation life of wheel/rail in the contact region. A simulated three dimensional (3D) elasto plastic model of a wheel/rail contact is modeled using the fine mesh technique in the contact region by using Finite Element Method FEM code ANSYS 11.0 software. Different loads of approximately from 70 to 140 KN was applied on the wheel tread through the running surface on the railhead surface to simulate stress distribution (Von Mises) and a life prediction of the crack initiation under rolling contact motion. Stress analysis is achieved and the fatigue life to the rail head surface is calculated numerically by using a multi-axial fatigue life of crack initiation model. All results obtained from the previous researches are compared with this research.

Keywords: FEM, rolling contact, rail track, stress distribution, fatigue life

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17226 Prediction of the Lateral Bearing Capacity of Short Piles in Clayey Soils Using Imperialist Competitive Algorithm-Based Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Reza Dinarvand, Mahdi Sadeghian, Somaye Sadeghian

Abstract:

Prediction of the ultimate bearing capacity of piles (Qu) is one of the basic issues in geotechnical engineering. So far, several methods have been used to estimate Qu, including the recently developed artificial intelligence methods. In recent years, optimization algorithms have been used to minimize artificial network errors, such as colony algorithms, genetic algorithms, imperialist competitive algorithms, and so on. In the present research, artificial neural networks based on colonial competition algorithm (ANN-ICA) were used, and their results were compared with other methods. The results of laboratory tests of short piles in clayey soils with parameters such as pile diameter, pile buried length, eccentricity of load and undrained shear resistance of soil were used for modeling and evaluation. The results showed that ICA-based artificial neural networks predicted lateral bearing capacity of short piles with a correlation coefficient of 0.9865 for training data and 0.975 for test data. Furthermore, the results of the model indicated the superiority of ICA-based artificial neural networks compared to back-propagation artificial neural networks as well as the Broms and Hansen methods.

Keywords: artificial neural network, clayey soil, imperialist competition algorithm, lateral bearing capacity, short pile

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17225 Development of Structural Deterioration Models for Flexible Pavement Using Traffic Speed Deflectometer Data

Authors: Sittampalam Manoharan, Gary Chai, Sanaul Chowdhury, Andrew Golding

Abstract:

The primary objective of this paper is to present a simplified approach to develop the structural deterioration model using traffic speed deflectometer data for flexible pavements. Maintaining assets to meet functional performance is not economical or sustainable in the long terms, and it would end up needing much more investments for road agencies and extra costs for road users. Performance models have to be included for structural and functional predicting capabilities, in order to assess the needs, and the time frame of those needs. As such structural modelling plays a vital role in the prediction of pavement performance. A structural condition is important for the prediction of remaining life and overall health of a road network and also major influence on the valuation of road pavement. Therefore, the structural deterioration model is a critical input into pavement management system for predicting pavement rehabilitation needs accurately. The Traffic Speed Deflectometer (TSD) is a vehicle-mounted Doppler laser system that is capable of continuously measuring the structural bearing capacity of a pavement whilst moving at traffic speeds. The device’s high accuracy, high speed, and continuous deflection profiles are useful for network-level applications such as predicting road rehabilitations needs and remaining structural service life. The methodology adopted in this model by utilizing time series TSD maximum deflection (D0) data in conjunction with rutting, rutting progression, pavement age, subgrade strength and equivalent standard axle (ESA) data. Then, regression analyses were undertaken to establish a correlation equation of structural deterioration as a function of rutting, pavement age, seal age and equivalent standard axle (ESA). This study developed a simple structural deterioration model which will enable to incorporate available TSD structural data in pavement management system for developing network-level pavement investment strategies. Therefore, the available funding can be used effectively to minimize the whole –of- life cost of the road asset and also improve pavement performance. This study will contribute to narrowing the knowledge gap in structural data usage in network level investment analysis and provide a simple methodology to use structural data effectively in investment decision-making process for road agencies to manage aging road assets.

Keywords: adjusted structural number (SNP), maximum deflection (D0), equant standard axle (ESA), traffic speed deflectometer (TSD)

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17224 Integrated Machine Learning Framework for At-Home Patients Personalized Risk Prediction Using Activities, Biometric, and Demographic Features

Authors: Claire Xu, Welton Wang, Manasvi Pinnaka, Anqi Pan, Michael Han

Abstract:

Hospitalizations account for one-third of the total health care spending in the US. Early risk detection and intervention can reduce this high cost and increase the satisfaction of both patients and physicians. Due to the lack of awareness of the potential arising risks in home environment, the opportunities for patients to seek early actions of clinical visits are dramatically reduced. This research aims to offer a highly personalized remote patients monitoring and risk assessment AI framework to identify the potentially preventable hospitalization for both acute as well as chronic diseases. A hybrid-AI framework is trained with data from clinical setting, patients surveys, as well as online databases. 20+ risk factors are analyzed ranging from activities, biometric info, demographic info, socio-economic info, hospitalization history, medication info, lifestyle info, etc. The AI model yields high performance of 87% accuracy and 88 sensitivity with 20+ features. This hybrid-AI framework is proven to be effective in identifying the potentially preventable hospitalization. Further, the high indicative features are identified by the models which guide us to a healthy lifestyle and early intervention suggestions.

Keywords: hospitalization prevention, machine learning, remote patient monitoring, risk prediction

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17223 The Twin Terminal of Pedestrian Trajectory Based on City Intelligent Model (CIM) 4.0

Authors: Chen Xi, Liu Xuebing, Lao Xueru, Kuan Sinman, Jiang Yike, Wang Hanwei, Yang Xiaolang, Zhou Junjie, Xie Jinpeng

Abstract:

To further promote the development of smart cities, the microscopic "nerve endings" of the City Intelligent Model (CIM) are extended to be more sensitive. In this paper, we develop a pedestrian trajectory twin terminal based on the CIM and CNN technology. It also uses 5G networks, architectural and geoinformatics technologies, convolutional neural networks, combined with deep learning networks for human behavior recognition models, to provide empirical data such as 'pedestrian flow data and human behavioral characteristics data', and ultimately form spatial performance evaluation criteria and spatial performance warning systems, to make the empirical data accurate and intelligent for prediction and decision making.

Keywords: urban planning, urban governance, CIM, artificial intelligence, sustainable development

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17222 Comparison of Numerical Results of Lambda Wing under Different Turbulence Models and Wall Y+

Authors: Hsien Hao Teng

Abstract:

This study uses numerical simulation to analyze the aerodynamic characteristics of the 53-degree Lambda wing with a sweep angle and mainly discusses the numerical simulation results and physical characteristics of the wall y+. Use the commercial software Fluent to execute Mach number 0.15; when the angle of attack attitude is between 0 degrees and 27 degrees, the physical characteristics of the overall aerodynamic force are analyzed, especially when the fluid separation and vortex structure changes are discussed under the condition of high angle of attack, it will affect The instability of pitching moment. In the numerical calculation, the use of wall y+ and turbulence model will affect the prediction of vortex generation and the difference in structure. The analysis results are compared with experimental data to discuss the trend of the aerodynamic characteristics of the Lambda wing.

Keywords: lambda wing, wall function, turbulence model, computational fluid dynamics

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17221 An Analytical Wall Function for 2-D Shock Wave/Turbulent Boundary Layer Interactions

Authors: X. Wang, T. J. Craft, H. Iacovides

Abstract:

When handling the near-wall regions of turbulent flows, it is necessary to account for the viscous effects which are important over the thin near-wall layers. Low-Reynolds- number turbulence models do this by including explicit viscous and also damping terms which become active in the near-wall regions, and using very fine near-wall grids to properly resolve the steep gradients present. In order to overcome the cost associated with the low-Re turbulence models, a more advanced wall function approach has been implemented within OpenFoam and tested together with a standard log-law based wall function in the prediction of flows which involve 2-D shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interactions (SWTBLIs). On the whole, from the calculation of the impinging shock interaction, the three turbulence modelling strategies, the Lauder-Sharma k-ε model with Yap correction (LS), the high-Re k-ε model with standard wall function (SWF) and analytical wall function (AWF), display good predictions of wall-pressure. However, the SWF approach tends to underestimate the tendency of the flow to separate as a result of the SWTBLI. The analytical wall function, on the other hand, is able to reproduce the shock-induced flow separation and returns predictions similar to those of the low-Re model, using a much coarser mesh.

Keywords: SWTBLIs, skin-friction, turbulence modeling, wall function

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17220 A Geographic Information System Mapping Method for Creating Improved Satellite Solar Radiation Dataset Over Qatar

Authors: Sachin Jain, Daniel Perez-Astudillo, Dunia A. Bachour, Antonio P. Sanfilippo

Abstract:

The future of solar energy in Qatar is evolving steadily. Hence, high-quality spatial solar radiation data is of the uttermost requirement for any planning and commissioning of solar technology. Generally, two types of solar radiation data are available: satellite data and ground observations. Satellite solar radiation data is developed by the physical and statistical model. Ground data is collected by solar radiation measurement stations. The ground data is of high quality. However, they are limited to distributed point locations with the high cost of installation and maintenance for the ground stations. On the other hand, satellite solar radiation data is continuous and available throughout geographical locations, but they are relatively less accurate than ground data. To utilize the advantage of both data, a product has been developed here which provides spatial continuity and higher accuracy than any of the data alone. The popular satellite databases: National Solar radiation Data Base, NSRDB (PSM V3 model, spatial resolution: 4 km) is chosen here for merging with ground-measured solar radiation measurement in Qatar. The spatial distribution of ground solar radiation measurement stations is comprehensive in Qatar, with a network of 13 ground stations. The monthly average of the daily total Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) component from ground and satellite data is used for error analysis. The normalized root means square error (NRMSE) values of 3.31%, 6.53%, and 6.63% for October, November, and December 2019 were observed respectively when comparing in-situ and NSRDB data. The method is based on the Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression Prediction model available in ArcGIS, ESRI. The workflow of the algorithm is based on the combination of regression and kriging methods. A regression model (OLS, ordinary least square) is fitted between the ground and NSBRD data points. A semi-variogram is fitted into the experimental semi-variogram obtained from the residuals. The kriging residuals obtained after fitting the semi-variogram model were added to NSRBD data predicted values obtained from the regression model to obtain the final predicted values. The NRMSE values obtained after merging are respectively 1.84%, 1.28%, and 1.81% for October, November, and December 2019. One more explanatory variable, that is the ground elevation, has been incorporated in the regression and kriging methods to reduce the error and to provide higher spatial resolution (30 m). The final GHI maps have been created after merging, and NRMSE values of 1.24%, 1.28%, and 1.28% have been observed for October, November, and December 2019, respectively. The proposed merging method has proven as a highly accurate method. An additional method is also proposed here to generate calibrated maps by using regression and kriging model and further to use the calibrated model to generate solar radiation maps from the explanatory variable only when not enough historical ground data is available for long-term analysis. The NRMSE values obtained after the comparison of the calibrated maps with ground data are 5.60% and 5.31% for November and December 2019 month respectively.

Keywords: global horizontal irradiation, GIS, empirical bayesian kriging regression prediction, NSRDB

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17219 Air Breakdown Voltage Prediction in Post-arcing Conditions for Compact Circuit Breakers

Authors: Jing Nan

Abstract:

The air breakdown voltage in compact circuit breakers is a critical factor in the design and reliability of electrical distribution systems. This voltage determines the threshold at which the air insulation between conductors will fail or 'break down,' leading to an arc. This phenomenon is highly sensitive to the conditions within the breaker, such as the temperature and the distance between electrodes. Typically, air breakdown voltage models have been reliable for predicting failure under standard operational temperatures. However, in conditions post-arcing, where temperatures can soar above 2000K, these models face challenges due to the complex physics of ionization and electron behaviour at such high-energy states. Building upon the foundational understanding that the breakdown mechanism is initiated by free electrons and propelled by electric fields, which lead to ionization and, potentially, to avalanche or streamer formation, we acknowledge the complexity introduced by high-temperature environments. Recognizing the limitations of existing experimental data, a notable research gap exists in the accurate prediction of breakdown voltage at elevated temperatures, typically observed post-arcing, where temperatures exceed 2000K.To bridge this knowledge gap, we present a method that integrates gap distance and high-temperature effects into air breakdown voltage assessment. The proposed model is grounded in the physics of ionization, accounting for the dynamic behaviour of free electrons which, under intense electric fields at elevated temperatures, lead to thermal ionization and potentially reach the threshold for streamer formation as Meek's criterion. Employing the Saha equation, our model calculates equilibrium electron densities, adapting to the atmospheric pressure and the hot temperature regions indicative of post-arc temperature conditions. Our model is rigorously validated against established experimental data, demonstrating substantial improvements in predicting air breakdown voltage in the high-temperature regime. This work significantly improves the predictive power for air breakdown voltage under conditions that closely mimic operational stressors in compact circuit breakers. Looking ahead, the proposed methods are poised for further exploration in alternative insulating media, like SF6, enhancing the model's utility for a broader range of insulation technologies and contributing to the future of high-temperature electrical insulation research.

Keywords: air breakdown voltage, high-temperature insulation, compact circuit breakers, electrical discharge, saha equation

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17218 Scour Depth Prediction around Bridge Piers Using Neuro-Fuzzy and Neural Network Approaches

Authors: H. Bonakdari, I. Ebtehaj

Abstract:

The prediction of scour depth around bridge piers is frequently considered in river engineering. One of the key aspects in efficient and optimum bridge structure design is considered to be scour depth estimation around bridge piers. In this study, scour depth around bridge piers is estimated using two methods, namely the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Therefore, the effective parameters in scour depth prediction are determined using the ANN and ANFIS methods via dimensional analysis, and subsequently, the parameters are predicted. In the current study, the methods’ performances are compared with the nonlinear regression (NLR) method. The results show that both methods presented in this study outperform existing methods. Moreover, using the ratio of pier length to flow depth, ratio of median diameter of particles to flow depth, ratio of pier width to flow depth, the Froude number and standard deviation of bed grain size parameters leads to optimal performance in scour depth estimation.

Keywords: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), artificial neural network (ANN), bridge pier, scour depth, nonlinear regression (NLR)

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17217 Mathematical Model to Quantify the Phenomenon of Democracy

Authors: Mechlouch Ridha Fethi

Abstract:

This paper presents a recent mathematical model in political sciences concerning democracy. The model is represented by a logarithmic equation linking the Relative Index of Democracy (RID) to Participation Ratio (PR). Firstly the meanings of the different parameters of the model were presented; and the variation curve of the RID according to PR with different critical areas was discussed. Secondly, the model was applied to a virtual group where we show that the model can be applied depending on the gender. Thirdly, it was observed that the model can be extended to different language models of democracy and that little use to assess the state of democracy for some International organizations like UNO.

Keywords: democracy, mathematic, modelization, quantification

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17216 Modeling Aeration of Sharp Crested Weirs by Using Support Vector Machines

Authors: Arun Goel

Abstract:

The present paper attempts to investigate the prediction of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency of a free over-fall jets issuing from a triangular sharp crested weir by using regression based modelling. The empirical equations, support vector machine (polynomial and radial basis function) models and the linear regression techniques were applied on the triangular sharp crested weirs relating the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency to the input parameters namely drop height, discharge, and vertex angle. It was observed that there exists a good agreement between the measured values and the values obtained using empirical equations, support vector machine (Polynomial and rbf) models, and the linear regression techniques. The test results demonstrated that the SVM based (Poly & rbf) model also provided acceptable prediction of the measured values with reasonable accuracy along with empirical equations and linear regression techniques in modelling the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency of a free over-fall jets issuing from triangular sharp crested weir. Further sensitivity analysis has also been performed to study the impact of input parameter on the output in terms of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency.

Keywords: air entrainment rate, dissolved oxygen, weir, SVM, regression

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17215 Prediction of Music Track Popularity: A Machine Learning Approach

Authors: Syed Atif Hassan, Luv Mehta, Syed Asif Hassan

Abstract:

Hit song science is a field of investigation wherein machine learning techniques are applied to music tracks in order to extract such features from audio signals which can capture information that could explain the popularity of respective tracks. Record companies invest huge amounts of money into recruiting fresh talents and churning out new music each year. Gaining insight into the basis of why a song becomes popular will result in tremendous benefits for the music industry. This paper aims to extract basic musical and more advanced, acoustic features from songs while also taking into account external factors that play a role in making a particular song popular. We use a dataset derived from popular Spotify playlists divided by genre. We use ten genres (blues, classical, country, disco, hip-hop, jazz, metal, pop, reggae, rock), chosen on the basis of clear to ambiguous delineation in the typical sound of their genres. We feed these features into three different classifiers, namely, SVM with RBF kernel, a deep neural network, and a recurring neural network, to build separate predictive models and choosing the best performing model at the end. Predicting song popularity is particularly important for the music industry as it would allow record companies to produce better content for the masses resulting in a more competitive market.

Keywords: classifier, machine learning, music tracks, popularity, prediction

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17214 Identifying Diabetic Retinopathy Complication by Predictive Techniques in Indian Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients

Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

Abstract:

Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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17213 Assessing Level of Pregnancy Rate and Milk Yield in Indian Murrah Buffaloes

Authors: V. Jamuna, A. K. Chakravarty, C. S. Patil, Vijay Kumar, M. A. Mir, Rakesh Kumar

Abstract:

Intense selection of buffaloes for milk production at organized herds of the country without giving due attention to fertility traits viz. pregnancy rate has lead to deterioration in their performances. Aim of study is to develop an optimum model for predicting pregnancy rate and to assess the level of pregnancy rate with respect to milk production Murrah buffaloes. Data pertaining to 1224 lactation records of Murrah buffaloes spread over a period 21 years were analyzed and it was observed that pregnancy rate depicted negative phenotypic association with lactation milk yield (-0.08 ± 0.04). For developing optimum model for pregnancy rate in Murrah buffaloes seven simple and multiple regression models were developed. Among the seven models, model II having only Service period as an independent reproduction variable, was found to be the best prediction model, based on the four statistical criterions (high coefficient of determination (R 2), low mean sum of squares due to error (MSSe), conceptual predictive (CP) value, and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). For standardizing the level of fertility with milk production, pregnancy rate was classified into seven classes with the increment of 10% in all parities, life time and their corresponding average pregnancy rate in relation to the average lactation milk yield (MY).It was observed that to achieve around 2000 kg MY which can be considered optimum for Indian Murrah buffaloes, level of pregnancy rate should be in between 30-50%.

Keywords: life time, pregnancy rate, production, service period, standardization

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17212 The Achievement Model of University Social Responsibility

Authors: Le Kang

Abstract:

On the research question of 'how to achieve USR', this contribution reflects the concept of university social responsibility, identify three achievement models of USR as the society - diversified model, the university-cooperation model, the government - compound model, also conduct a case study to explore characteristics of Chinese achievement model of USR. The contribution concludes with discussion of how the university, government and society balance demands and roles, make necessarily strategic adjustment and innovative approach to repair the shortcomings of each achievement model.

Keywords: modern university, USR, achievement model, compound model

Procedia PDF Downloads 759
17211 Taleghan Dam Break Numerical Modeling

Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Milad Sadeghpoor Moalem, Mahmood Zakeri Niri, Leili Sadeghi Khalegh Abadi

Abstract:

While there are many benefits to using reservoir dams, their break leads to destructive effects. From the viewpoint of International Committee of Large Dams (ICOLD), dam break means the collapse of whole or some parts of a dam; thereby the dam will be unable to hold water. Therefore, studying dam break phenomenon and prediction of its behavior and effects reduces losses and damages of the mentioned phenomenon. One of the most common types of reservoir dams is embankment dam. Overtopping in embankment dams occurs because of flood discharge system inability in release inflows to reservoir. One of the most important issues among managers and engineers to evaluate the performance of the reservoir dam rim when sliding into the storage, creating waves is large and long. In this study, the effects of floods which caused the overtopping of the dam have been investigated. It was assumed that spillway is unable to release the inflow. To determine outflow hydrograph resulting from dam break, numerical model using Flow-3D software and empirical equations was used. Results of numerical models and their comparison with empirical equations show that numerical model and empirical equations can be used to study the flood resulting from dam break.

Keywords: embankment dam break, empirical equations, Taleghan dam, Flow-3D numerical model

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17210 Fatigue Life Evaluation of Al6061/Al2O3 and Al6061/SiC Composites under Uniaxial and Multiaxial Loading Conditions

Authors: C. E. Sutton, A. Varvani-Farahani

Abstract:

Fatigue damage and life prediction of particle metal matrix composites (PMMCs) under uniaxial and multiaxial loading conditions were investigated. Three PMM composite materials of Al6061/Al2O3/20p-T6, Al6061/Al2O3/22p-T6 and Al6061/SiC/17w-T6 tested under tensile, torsion, and combined tension-torsion fatigue cycling were evaluated with various fatigue damage models. The fatigue damage models of Smith-Watson-Topper (S. W. T.), Ellyin, Brown-Miller, Fatemi-Socie, and Varvani were compared for their capability to assess the fatigue damage of materials undergoing various loading conditions. Fatigue life predication results were then evaluated by implementing material-dependent coefficients that factored in the effects of the particle reinforcement in the earlier developed Varvani model. The critical plane-energy approach incorporated the critical plane as the plane of crack initiation and early stage of crack growth. The strain energy density was calculated on the critical plane incorporating stress and strain components acting on the plane. This approach successfully evaluated fatigue damage values versus fatigue lives within a narrower band for both uniaxial and multiaxial loading conditions as compared with other damage approaches studied in this paper.

Keywords: fatigue damage, life prediction, critical plane approach, energy approach, PMM composites

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17209 Artificial Intelligence Methods for Returns Expectations in Financial Markets

Authors: Yosra Mefteh Rekik, Younes Boujelbene

Abstract:

We introduce in this paper a new conceptual model representing the stock market dynamics. This model is essentially based on cognitive behavior of the intelligence investors. In order to validate our model, we build an artificial stock market simulation based on agent-oriented methodologies. The proposed simulator is composed of market supervisor agent essentially responsible for executing transactions via an order book and various kinds of investor agents depending to their profile. The purpose of this simulation is to understand the influence of psychological character of an investor and its neighborhood on its decision-making and their impact on the market in terms of price fluctuations. Therefore, the difficulty of the prediction is due to several features: the complexity, the non-linearity and the dynamism of the financial market system, as well as the investor psychology. The Artificial Neural Networks learning mechanism take on the role of traders, who from their futures return expectations and place orders based on their expectations. The results of intensive analysis indicate that the existence of agents having heterogeneous beliefs and preferences has provided a better understanding of price dynamics in the financial market.

Keywords: artificial intelligence methods, artificial stock market, behavioral modeling, multi-agent based simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 446
17208 An Approach towards Smart Future: Ict Infrastructure Integrated into Urban Water Networks

Authors: Ahsan Ali, Mayank Ostwal, Nikhil Agarwal

Abstract:

Abstract—According to a World Bank report, millions of people across the globe still do not have access to improved water services. With uninterrupted growth of cities and urban inhabitants, there is a mounting need to safeguard the sustainable expansion of cities. Efficient functioning of the urban components and high living standards of the residents are needed to be ensured. The water and sanitation network of an urban development is one of its most essential parts of its critical infrastructure. The growth in urban population is leading towards increased water demand, and thus, the local water resources are severely strained. 'Smart water' is referred to water and waste water infrastructure that is able to manage the limited resources and the energy used to transport it. It enables the sustainable consumption of water resources through co-ordinate water management system, by integrating Information Communication Technology (ICT) solutions, intended at maximizing the socioeconomic benefits without compromising the environmental values. This paper presents a case study from a medium sized city in North-western Pakistan. Currently, water is getting contaminated due to the proximity between water and sewer pipelines in the study area, leading to public health issues. Due to unsafe grey water infiltration, the scarce ground water is also getting polluted. This research takes into account the design of smart urban water network by integrating ICT (Information and Communication Technology) with urban water network. The proximity between the existing water supply network and sewage network is analyzed and a design of new water supply system is proposed. Real time mapping of the existing urban utility networks will be projected with the help of GIS applications. The issue of grey water infiltration is addressed by providing sustainable solutions with the help of locally available materials, keeping in mind the economic condition of the area. To deal with the current growth of urban population, it is vital to develop new water resources. Hence, distinctive and cost effective procedures to harness rain water would be suggested as a part of the research study experiment.

Keywords: GIS, smart water, sustainability, urban water management

Procedia PDF Downloads 218
17207 Prediction of Rotating Machines with Rolling Element Bearings and Its Components Deterioration

Authors: Marimuthu Gurusamy

Abstract:

In vibration analysis (with accelerometers) of rotating machines with rolling element bearing, the customers are interested to know the failure of the machine well in advance to plan the spare inventory and maintenance. But in real world most of the machines fails before the prediction of vibration analyst or Expert analysis software. Presently the prediction of failure is based on ISO 10816 vibration limits only. But this is not enough to monitor the failure of machines well in advance. Because more than 50% of the machines will fail even the vibration readings are within acceptable zone as per ISO 10816.Hence it requires further detail analysis and different techniques to predict the failure well in advance. In vibration Analysis, the velocity spectrum is used to analyse the root cause of the mechanical problems like unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc. The envelope spectrum are used to analyse the bearing frequency components, hence the failure in inner race, outer race and rolling elements are identified. But so far there is no correlation made between these two concepts. The author used both velocity spectrum and Envelope spectrum to analyse the machine behaviour and bearing condition to correlated the changes in dynamic load (by unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc.) and effect of impact on the bearing. Hence we could able to predict the expected life of the machine and bearings in the rotating equipment (with rolling element bearings). Also we used process parameters like temperature, flow and pressure to correlate with flow induced vibration and load variations, when abnormal vibration occurs due to changes in process parameters. Hence by correlation of velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum and process data with 20 years of experience in vibration analysis, the author could able to predict the rotating Equipment and its component’s deterioration and expected duration for maintenance.

Keywords: vibration analysis, velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum, prediction of deterioration

Procedia PDF Downloads 452