Search results for: marginal likelihood evidence
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4543

Search results for: marginal likelihood evidence

3793 The Efficacy of Vestibular Rehabilitation Therapy for Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Authors: Ammar Aljabri, Alhussain Halawani, Alaa Ashqar, Omar Alageely

Abstract:

Objective: mild Traumatic Brain Injury (mTBI) or concussion is a common yet undermanaged and underreported condition. This systematic review and meta-analysis aim to determine the efficacy of VRT as a treatment option for mTBI. Method: This review and meta-analysis was performed following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines and included RCTs and pre-VRT/post-VRT retrospective chart reviews. Records meeting the inclusion criteria were extracted from the following databases: Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). Results: Eight articles met the inclusion criteria, and six RCTs were included in the meta-analysis. VRT demonstrated significant improvement in decreasing perceived dizziness at the end of the intervention program, as shown by DHI scores (SMD= -0.33, 95% CI -0.62 to -0.03, p=0.03, I2= 0%). However, no significant reduction in DHI was evident after two months of follow-up (SMD= 0.15, 95% CI -0.23 to 0.52, p=0.44, I2=0%). Quantitative analysis also depicts significant reduction in both VOMS (SMD=-0.40, 95% CI -0.60 to -0.20, p<0.0001, I2=0%) and PCSS (SMD= -0.39, 95% CI -0.71 to -0.07, p=0.02, I2=0%) following the intervention. Lastly, there was no significant difference between intervention groups on BESS scores (SMD= -31, 95% CI -0.71 to 0.10, p=0.14, I2=0%) and return to sport/function (95% CI 0.32 to 30.80, p=0.32, I2=82%). Conclusions: Current evidence on the efficacy of VRT for mTBI is limited. This review and analysis provide evidence that supports the role of VRT in improving perceived symptoms following concussion. There is still a need for high-quality trials evaluating the benefit of VRT using a standardized approach.

Keywords: concussion, traumatic brain injury, vestibular rehabilitation, neurorehabilitation

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3792 Analyzing the Use of Augmented Reality and Image Recognition in Cultural Education: Use Case of Sintra Palace Treasure Hunt Application

Authors: Marek Maruszczak

Abstract:

Gamified applications have been used successfully in education for years. The rapid development of technologies such as augmented reality and image recognition increases their availability and reduces their prices. Thus, there is an increasing possibility and need for a wide use of such applications in education. The main purpose of this article is to present the effects of work on a mobile application with augmented reality, the aim of which is to motivate tourists to pay more attention to the attractions and increase the likelihood of moving from one attraction to the next while visiting the Palácio Nacional de Sintra in Portugal. Work on the application was carried out together with the employees of Parques de Sintra from 2019 to 2021. Their effect was the preparation of a mobile application using augmented reality and image recognition. The application was tested on the palace premises by both Parques de Sintra employees and tourists visiting Palácio Nacional de Sintra. The collected conclusions allowed for the formulation of good practices and guidelines that can be used when designing gamified apps for the purpose of cultural education.

Keywords: augmented reality, cultural education, gamification, image recognition, mobile games

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3791 Disseminated Tuberculosis: Experience from Tuberculosis Directly Observed Treatment Short Course Center at a Tertiary Care Teaching Hospital in the Philippines

Authors: Jamie R. Chua, Christina Irene D. Mejia, Regina P. Berba

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Disseminated tuberculosis is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis involving two or more non-contiguous sites identified through bacteriologic confirmation or clinical diagnosis. Over the five year period included in the study, the UP-PGH TB DOTS clinic had total of 3,967 referrals, and the prevalence of disseminated tuberculosis is 1% (68/3967). The mean age was 33.9 years (range 19-64 years) with a male: female ratio of 1:1. 67% (52 patients) had no predisposing comorbid illness or immune disorder. The most common presenting symptoms were abdominal pain (19%), back pain (13%), abdominal enlargement (11%) and mass (10.2%). Anemia, leukocytosis, hypoalbuminemia, and high-normal serum calcium were common biochemical and hematologic findings. Around 36% (25) of patients were diagnosed clinically with disseminated tuberculosis despite lacking bacteriologic evidence of multi-organ involvement. The lungs (86%) is still the most commonly involved site, followed by intestinal (22%), vertebral/Pott’s (27%), and pelvic/genital (19%). The mean time from presentation to initiation of therapy was 22 days (SD 32.7). Only 18 patients (29.3%) were properly recorded to have been referred to local TB DOTs facilities. Of the 68 patients, only 16% (11 patients) continued follow-up at PGH, and all had documented treatment completion. Treatment outcomes of the remaining were unknown. Due to the variety of involved sites, a high index of suspicion is required. Knowledge on clinical features, common radiographic findings, and histopathologic characteristics of disseminated TB is important as bacteriologic evidence of infection is not always apparent.

Keywords: disseminated tuberculosis, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, miliary tuberculosis, tuberculosis

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3790 Estimating the Relationship between Education and Political Polarization over Immigration across Europe

Authors: Ben Tappin, Ryan McKay

Abstract:

The political left and right appear to disagree not only over questions of value but, also, over questions of fact—over what is true “out there” in society and the world. Alarmingly, a large body of survey data collected during the past decade suggests that this disagreement tends to be greatest among the most educated and most cognitively sophisticated opposing partisans. In other words, the data show that these individuals display the widest political polarization in their reported factual beliefs. Explanations of this polarization pattern draw heavily on cultural and political factors; yet, the large majority of the evidence originates from one cultural and political context—the United States, a country with a rather unique cultural and political history. One consequence is that widening political polarization conditional on education and cognitive sophistication may be due to idiosyncratic cultural, political or historical factors endogenous to US society—rather than a more general, international phenomenon. We examined widening political polarization conditional on education across Europe, over a topic that is culturally and politically contested; immigration. To do so, we analyzed data from the European Social Survey, a premier survey of countries in and around the European area conducted biennially since 2002. Our main results are threefold. First, we see widening political polarization conditional on education over beliefs about the economic impact of immigration. The foremost countries showing this pattern are the most influential in Europe: Germany and France. However, we also see heterogeneity across countries, with some—such as Belgium—showing no evidence of such polarization. Second, we find that widening political polarization conditional on education is a product of sorting. That is, highly educated partisans exhibit stronger within-group consensus in their beliefs about immigration—the data do not support the view that the more educated partisans are more polarized simply because the less educated fail to adopt a position on the question. Third, and finally, we find some evidence that shocks to the political climate of countries in the European area—for example, the “refugee crisis” of summer 2015—were associated with a subsequent increase in political polarization over immigration conditional on education. The largest increase was observed in Germany, which was at the centre of the so-called refugee crisis in 2015. These results reveal numerous insights: they show that widening political polarization conditional on education is not restricted to the US or native English-speaking culture; that such polarization emerges in the domain of immigration; that it is a product of within-group consensus among the more educated; and, finally, that exogenous shocks to the political climate may be associated with subsequent increases in political polarization conditional on education.

Keywords: beliefs, Europe, immigration, political polarization

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3789 CSR Reporting, State Ownership, and Corporate Performance in China: Proof from Longitudinal Data of Publicly Traded Enterprises from 2006 to 2020

Authors: Wanda Luen-Wun Siu, Xiaowen Zhang

Abstract:

This paper offered the primary methodical proof on how CSR reporting related to enterprise earnings in listed firms in China in light of most evidence focusing on cross-sectional data or data in a short span of time. Using full economic and business panel data on China’s publicly listed enterprise from 2006 to 2020 over two decades in the China Stock Market and Accounting Research database, we found initial evidence of significant direct relations between CSR reporting and firm corporate performance in both state-owned and privately owned firms over this period, supporting the stakeholder theory. Results also revealed that state-owned enterprises performed as well as private enterprises in the current period. But private enterprises performed better than state-owned enterprises in the subsequent years. Moreover, the release of social responsibility reports had a more significant impact on the financial performance of state-owned and private enterprises in the current period than in the subsequent periods. Specifically, CSR release was not significantly associated with the financial performance of state-owned enterprises on the lag of the first, second, and third periods. But it had an impact on the lag of the first, second, and third periods among private enterprises. Such findings suggested that CSR reporting helped improve the corporate financial performance of state-owned and private enterprises in the current period, but this kind of effect was more significant among private enterprises in the lag periods.

Keywords: China’s listed firms, CSR reporting, financial performance, panel analysis

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3788 Serological Evidence of Enzootic Bovine Leukosis in Dairy Cattle Herds in the United Arab Emirates

Authors: Nabeeha Hassan Abdel Jalil, Lulwa Saeed Al Badi, Mouza Ghafan Alkhyeli, Khaja Mohteshamuddin, Ahmad Al Aiyan, Mohamed Elfatih Hamad, Robert Barigye

Abstract:

The present study was done to elucidate the prevalence of enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) in the UAE, the seroprevalence rates of EBL in dairy herds from the Al Ain area, Abu Dhabi (AD) and indigenous cattle at the Al Ain livestock market (AALM) were assessed. Of the 949 sera tested by ELISA, 657 were from adult Holstein-Friesians from three farms and 292 from indigenous cattle at the AALM. The level of significance between the proportions of seropositive cattle were analyzed by the Marascuilo procedure and questionnaire data on husbandry and biosecurity practices evaluated. Overall, the aggregated farm and AALM data demonstrated a seroprevalence of 25.9%, compared to 37.0% for the study farms, and 1.0% for the indigenous cattle. Additionally, the seroprevalence rates at farms #1, #2 and #3 were 54.7%, 0.0%, and 26.3% respectively. Except for farm #2 and the AALM, statistically significant differences were noted between the proportions of seropositive cattle for farms #1 and #2 (Critical Range or CR=0.0803), farms #1 and #3 (p=0.1069), and farms #2 and #3 (CR=0.0707), farm #1 and the AALM (CR=0.0819), and farm #3 and the AALM (CR=0.0726). Also, the proportions of seropositive animals on farm #1 were 9.8%, 59.8%, 29.3%, and 1.2% in the 12-36, 37-72, 73-108, and 109-144-mo-old age groups respectively compared to 21.5%, 60.8%, 15.2%, and 2.5% in the respective age groups for farm #2. On both farms and the AALM, the 37-72-mo-old age group showed the highest EBL seroprevalence rate while all the 57 cattle on farm #2 were seronegative. Additionally, farms #1 and #3 had 3,130 and 2,828 intensively managed Holstein-Friesian cattle respectively, and all animals were routinely immunized against several diseases except EBL. On both farms #1 and #3, artificial breeding was practiced using semen sourced from the USA, and USA and Canada respectively, all farms routinely quarantined new stock, and farm #1 previously imported dairy cattle from an unspecified country, and farm #3 from the Netherlands, Australia and South Africa. While farm #1 provided no information on animal nutrition, farm #3 cited using hay, concentrates, and ad lib water. To the authors’ best knowledge, this is the first serological evidence of EBL in the UAE and as previously reported, the seroprevalence rates are comparatively higher in the intensively managed dairy herds than in indigenous cattle. As two of the study farms previously sourced cattle and semen from overseas, biosecurity protocols need to be revisited to avoid inadvertent EBL incursion and the possibility of regional transboundary disease spread also needs to be assessed. After the proposed molecular studies have adduced additional data, the relevant UAE animal health authorities may need to develop evidence-based EBL control policies and programs.

Keywords: cattle, enzootic bovine leukosis, seroprevalence, UAE

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3787 Minimizing the Impact of Covariate Detection Limit in Logistic Regression

Authors: Shahadut Hossain, Jacek Wesolowski, Zahirul Hoque

Abstract:

In many epidemiological and environmental studies covariate measurements are subject to the detection limit. In most applications, covariate measurements are usually truncated from below which is known as left-truncation. Because the measuring device, which we use to measure the covariate, fails to detect values falling below the certain threshold. In regression analyses, it causes inflated bias and inaccurate mean squared error (MSE) to the estimators. This paper suggests a response-based regression calibration method to correct the deleterious impact introduced by the covariate detection limit in the estimators of the parameters of simple logistic regression model. Compared to the maximum likelihood method, the proposed method is computationally simpler, and hence easier to implement. It is robust to the violation of distributional assumption about the covariate of interest. In producing correct inference, the performance of the proposed method compared to the other competing methods has been investigated through extensive simulations. A real-life application of the method is also shown using data from a population-based case-control study of non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

Keywords: environmental exposure, detection limit, left truncation, bias, ad-hoc substitution

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3786 Barriers and Facilitators to Physical Activity Among Older Adults Living in Long‐Term Care Facilities: A Systematic Review with Qualitative Evidence Synthesis

Authors: Ying Shi, June Zhang, Lu Shao, Xiyan Xie, Aidi Lao, Zhangan Wang

Abstract:

Background: Low levels of physical activity are associated with poorer health outcomes, and this situation is more critical in older adults living in long‐term care facilities. Objectives: To systematically identify, appraise, and synthesize current qualitative research evidence regarding the barriers and facilitators to physical activity as reported by older adults and care staff in long‐term care facilities. Design: This is a systematic review with qualitative evidence synthesis adhering to PRISMA guidelines. Methods: We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Science Citation Index Expanded, Social Sciences Citation Index, EMBASE, CINAHL, and PsychInfo databases from inception until 30 June 2023. Thematic synthesis was undertaken to identify the barriers and facilitators relating to physical activity. Then, we mapped them onto the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation, and Behavior model and Theoretical Domains Framework. Methodological quality was assessed using the CASP Qualitative Studies Checklist, and confidence in review findings was assessed using the GRADE-CERQual approach. Results: We included 32 studies after screening 10496 citations and 177 full texts. Seven themes and 17 subthemes were identified relating to barriers and facilitators influencing physical activity in elderly residents. The main themes were mapped onto COM-B) model-Capability (physical activity knowledge gaps and individual health issues), Opportunity (social support and macro-level resources) and Motivation (health beliefs, fear of falling or injury, and personal and social incentives to physical activity). Most subthemes were graded as high (n = 9) or moderate (n = 3) confidence. Conclusions and Implications: Our comprehensive synthesis of 32 studies provides a wealth of knowledge of barriers and facilitators to physical activity from both residents and care staff’s perspectives. Intervention components were also suggested within the context of long‐term care facilities. End users such as older residents, care staff, and researchers can have confidence in our findings when formulating policies and guidance on promoting physical activity among elderly residents in long‐term care facilities.

Keywords: long‐term care, older adults, physical activity, qualitative, systematic review

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3785 Financial Markets Integration between Morocco and France: Implications on International Portfolio Diversification

Authors: Abdelmounaim Lahrech, Hajar Bousfiha

Abstract:

This paper examines equity market integration between Morocco and France and its consequent implications on international portfolio diversification. In the absence of stock market linkages, Morocco can act as a diversification destination to European investors, allowing higher returns at a comparable level of risk in developed markets. In contrast, this attractiveness is limited if both financial markets show significant linkage. The research empirically measures financial market’s integration in by capturing the conditional correlation between the two markets using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model. Then, the research uses the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model of Engle (2002) to track the correlations. The research findings show that there is no important increase over the years in the correlation between the Moroccan and the French equity markets, even though France is considered Morocco’s first trading partner. Failing to prove evidence of the stock index linkage between the two countries, the volatility series of each market were assumed to change over time separately. Yet, the study reveals that despite the important historical and economic linkages between Morocco and France, there is no evidence that equity markets follow. The small correlations and their stationarity over time show that over the 10 years studied, correlations were fluctuating around a stable mean with no significant change at their level. Different explanations can be attributed to the absence of market linkage between the two equity markets.

Keywords: equity market linkage, DCC GARCH, international portfolio diversification, Morocco, France

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3784 Mapping the Sonic Spectrum of Traditional Music and Instruments Used in Malaysian Kavadi Rituals

Authors: Ainolnaim Azizol, Valerie Ross

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Music is as old as mankind and rituals using music such as Kavadi have been associated with social, cultural, and spiritual practices in many traditional and modern societies. Recent literature has provided scientific evidence that music affects psychological and physical changes through stimulation of brainwave. Despite such advances, the scientific study of the sonic qualities peculiar to traditional instruments and how it impacts on ritualistic activities is still lacking. This study addresses one such phenomenon. Devotees in Kavadi rituals are known to be in a state of trance state and do not experience pain nor suffer injury despite the hundreds of needles pierced through their skins. Although scientists have sought to understand how this is possible, lesser is known about the music that is used to prepare devotees to enter into the trance state. This study fills this gap of knowledge by providing scientific evidence through the identification and mapping of the sonic spectrum or sound fingerprint of the instruments and the repertoire used in these ritualistic forms in their ethnographic environment and in audio-controlled situations. The objectives are to identify and categorize the different types of traditional music used in Kavadi rituals; to record, transcribe and digitally score the musical repertoire used in the oral tradition of Kavadi rituals; to map the sonic spectrum of ritual music using spectromography and advanced music analytical software a mixed methodology will be used. This comprises ethnographic field studies using interviews, participant observation, audio-video recordings and audio-methodology using spectromography and advanced audio-technology for sonic mapping and the transcription of audio recordings into digital scores.

Keywords: sonic, traditional, ritual, Kavadi, music

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3783 Isotretinoin and Psychiatric Adverse Events: A Review of the Evidence

Authors: Thodoris Tsagkaris, Marios Stavropoulos, Panagiotis Theodosis-Nobelos, Charalampos Triantis

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Isotretinoin is a widely used therapeutic for the treatment of acne vulgaris and various other skin disorders. However, since its approval, many side effects and contraindications have been described, particularly important, such as teratogenicity as well as liver disease and dermal deterioration. In a very important allegation, isotretinoin has been linked with psychiatric symptoms like depression, suicidal ideation, schizophrenia, and hypervitaminosis A syndrome characteristics. These adverse effects have raised significant concerns regarding the safety of isotretinoin. Numerous studies and research have associated isotretinoin with side effects on the mental health of patients and have proposed plausible mechanisms regarding this suspected causative relationship. However, the evidence is still contradicting, and the data disperse, making their validity less valuable. Thus, in the present study, we aim to analyze further the available literature and present a complete analysis of the side effects of isotretinoin, with particular emphasis on the effects it may have on the mental health of patients. The review is based on international articles from broad scientific electronic databases like PubMed and Scopus. This review concludes that although many studies have associated isotretinoin with mental effects like depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, and suicidal ideation, the data are still insufficient and often contradictory. In fact, additional studies with accurate data and larger double-blinded samples, and more analytic systematic reviews are required. It is especially important to monitor the dose and the intervals that isotretinoin has to be administered in order to potentially cause mental health problems, as well as the duration of treatment and the role that the patient's medical and pharmaceutical history may play.

Keywords: acne, depression, isotretinoin, mental health

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3782 Financial Market Reaction to Non-Financial Reports

Authors: Petra Dilling

Abstract:

This study examines the market reaction to the publication of integrated reports for a sample of 316 global companies for the reporting year 2018. Applying event study methodology, we find significant cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) after the publication date. To ensure robust estimation resultsthe three-factor model, according to Fama and French, is used as well as a market-adjusted model, a CAPM and a Frama-French model taking GARCH effects into account. We find a significant positive CAAR after the publication day of the integrated report. Our results suggest that investors react to information provided in the integrated report and that they react differently to the annual financial report. Furthermore, our cross-sectional analysis confirms that companies with a significant positive cumulative average abnormal show certain characteristic. It was found that European companies have a higher likelihood to experience a stronger significant positive market reaction to their integrated report publication.

Keywords: integrated report, event methodology, cumulative abnormal return, sustainability, CAPM

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3781 Moral Decision-Making in the Criminal Justice System: The Influence of Gruesome Descriptions

Authors: Michel Patiño-Sáenz, Martín Haissiner, Jorge Martínez-Cotrina, Daniel Pastor, Hernando Santamaría-García, Maria-Alejandra Tangarife, Agustin Ibáñez, Sandra Baez

Abstract:

It has been shown that gruesome descriptions of harm can increase the punishment given to a transgressor. This biasing effect is mediated by negative emotions, which are elicited upon the presentation of gruesome descriptions. However, there is a lack of studies inquiring the influence of such descriptions on moral decision-making in people involved in the criminal justice system. Such populations are of special interest since they have experience dealing with gruesome evidence, but also formal education on how to assess evidence and gauge the appropriate punishment according to the law. Likewise, they are expected to be objective and rational when performing their duty, because their decisions can impact profoundly people`s lives. Considering these antecedents, the objective of this study was to explore the influence gruesome written descriptions on moral decision-making in this group of people. To that end, we recruited attorneys, judges and public prosecutors (Criminal justice group, CJ, n=30) whose field of specialty is criminal law. In addition, we included a control group of people who did not have a formal education in law (n=30), but who were paired in age and years of education with the CJ group. All participants completed an online, Spanish-adapted version of a moral decision-making task, which was previously reported in the literature and also standardized and validated in the Latin-American context. A series of text-based stories describing two characters, one inflicting harm on the other, were presented to participants. Transgressor's intentionality (accidental vs. intentional harm) and language (gruesome vs. plain) used to describe harm were manipulated employing a within-subjects and a between-subjects design, respectively. After reading each story, participants were asked to rate (a) the harmful action's moral adequacy, (b) the amount of punishment deserving the transgressor and (c) how damaging was his behavior. Results showed main effects of group, intentionality and type of language on all dependent measures. In both groups, intentional harmful actions were rated as significantly less morally adequate, were punished more severely and were deemed as more damaging. Moreover, control subjects deemed more damaging and punished more severely any type of action than the CJ group. In addition, there was an interaction between intentionality and group. People in the control group rated harmful actions as less morally adequate than the CJ group, but only when the action was accidental. Also, there was an interaction between intentionality and language on punishment ratings. Controls punished more when harm was described using gruesome language. However, that was not the case of people in the CJ group, who assigned the same amount of punishment in both conditions. In conclusion, participants with job experience in the criminal justice system or criminal law differ in the way they make moral decisions. Particularly, it seems that they are less sensitive to the biasing effect of gruesome evidence, which is probably explained by their formal education or their experience in dealing with such evidence. Nonetheless, more studies are needed to determine the impact this phenomenon has on the fulfillment of their duty.

Keywords: criminal justice system, emotions, gruesome descriptions, intentionality, moral decision-making

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3780 E-Governance: A Key for Improved Public Service Delivery

Authors: Ayesha Akbar

Abstract:

Public service delivery has witnessed a significant improvement with the integration of information communication technology (ICT). It not only improves management structure with advanced technology for surveillance of service delivery but also provides evidence for informed decisions and policy. Pakistan’s public sector organizations have not been able to produce some good results to ensure service delivery. Notwithstanding, some of the public sector organizations in Pakistan has diffused modern technology and proved their credence by providing better service delivery standards. These good indicators provide sound basis to integrate technology in public sector organizations and shift of policy towards evidence based policy making. Rescue-1122 is a public sector organization which provides emergency services and proved to be a successful model for the provision of service delivery to save human lives and to ensure human development in Pakistan. The information about the organization has been received by employing qualitative research methodology. The information is broadly based on primary and secondary sources which includes Rescue-1122 website, official reports of organizations; UNDP (United Nation Development Program), WHO (World Health Organization) and by conducting 10 in-depth interviews with the high administrative staff of organizations who work in the Lahore offices. The information received has been incorporated with the study for the better understanding of the organization and their management procedures. Rescue-1122 represents a successful model in delivering the services in an efficient way to deal with the disaster management. The management of Rescue has strategized the policies and procedures in such a way to develop a comprehensive model with the integration of technology. This model provides efficient service delivery as well as maintains the standards of the organization. The service delivery model of rescue-1122 works on two fronts; front-office interface and the back-office interface. Back-office defines the procedures of operations and assures the compliance of the staff whereas, front-office equipped with the latest technology and good infrastructure handles the emergency calls. Both ends are integrated with satellite based vehicle tracking, wireless system, fleet monitoring system and IP camera which monitors every move of the staff to provide better services and to pinpoint the distortions in the services. The standard time of reaching to the emergency spot is 7 minutes, and during entertaining the case; driver‘s behavior, traffic volume and the technical assistance being provided to the emergency case is being monitored by front-office. Then the whole information get uploaded to the main dashboard of Lahore headquarter from the provincial offices. The latest technology is being materialized by Rescue-1122 for delivering the efficient services, investigating the flaws; if found, and to develop data to make informed decision making. The other public sector organizations of Pakistan can also develop such models to integrate technology for improving service delivery and to develop evidence for informed decisions and policy making.

Keywords: data, e-governance, evidence, policy

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3779 Floorboards, Whitewalls and Butterflies: Ethnography of a Community Mental Health Cafe

Authors: J. N. Bardi, N. Wright, S. Timmons, P. Crawford

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Introduction: In the United Kingdom (UK), the transfer of care from the asylums to the community has meant that some people with mental health problems (MHP) may not have access to suitable or adequate statutory community mental health services (CMHS). However, in addition to statutory CMHS, there are informal CMHS that provide spaces where people with MHP can attend such as faith communities, clubhouses, user-led organisations, day centres including drop-in-centres and community hubs and community mental health cafés (CMHCs). Aim: To qualitatively understand what happens in a community mental health café in relation to the place, people and processes, from the participant's perspective. Methodology: Ethnography Methods: Data collection will be field notes from observations written as thick description and interviews with participants. Data analysis will be thematic and narrative analysis. Relevance: The study seeks to observe what happens in a user-led community mental health café and explore if it provides the services that it claims to offer. Therefore, a literature review was conducted to examine the research evidence related to informal CMHS, focusing on similarities and differences. Results indicated that informal CMHS differ with regards to why, how, who set them up and who funds them, but they are similar because people with MHP who attend them report related psychological, vocational, and social interaction benefits. In addition to the differences listed above, CMHCs differ in their adoption of the commercial café model of social space and some CMHCs claim to address needs of social isolation and loneliness which they assert are not properly addressed by statutory CMHS and some informal CMHS. Therefore, CMHCs explicitly differentiate themselves from statutory CMHS and some informal CMHS such as day centres, hospitals and social services. However, CMHCs were found to be like drop-in-centres and community hubs which are also free for MHP to attend without the need for assessments, membership or appointments. To situate community mental health café within other informal CMHS and provide a rationale for the proposed study a scoping review was conducted to determine the scope of available research evidence on CMHCs. Findings from the scoping review reflected the literature review findings with regards to the benefits of attending informal CMHCs for people with MHP. Of the ten studies included in the scoping review, seven were on CMHCs for people living with dementia and two were on CMHCs for people with a broader range of MHP. The researcher hopes that findings from the proposed PhD study will build on the existing understanding of informal CMHS, extend the research evidence on CMHCs and address any gap in the literature.

Keywords: cafe, community, ethnography, mental health

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3778 A Robust Spatial Feature Extraction Method for Facial Expression Recognition

Authors: H. G. C. P. Dinesh, G. Tharshini, M. P. B. Ekanayake, G. M. R. I. Godaliyadda

Abstract:

This paper presents a new spatial feature extraction method based on principle component analysis (PCA) and Fisher Discernment Analysis (FDA) for facial expression recognition. It not only extracts reliable features for classification, but also reduces the feature space dimensions of pattern samples. In this method, first each gray scale image is considered in its entirety as the measurement matrix. Then, principle components (PCs) of row vectors of this matrix and variance of these row vectors along PCs are estimated. Therefore, this method would ensure the preservation of spatial information of the facial image. Afterwards, by incorporating the spectral information of the eigen-filters derived from the PCs, a feature vector was constructed, for a given image. Finally, FDA was used to define a set of basis in a reduced dimension subspace such that the optimal clustering is achieved. The method of FDA defines an inter-class scatter matrix and intra-class scatter matrix to enhance the compactness of each cluster while maximizing the distance between cluster marginal points. In order to matching the test image with the training set, a cosine similarity based Bayesian classification was used. The proposed method was tested on the Cohn-Kanade database and JAFFE database. It was observed that the proposed method which incorporates spatial information to construct an optimal feature space outperforms the standard PCA and FDA based methods.

Keywords: facial expression recognition, principle component analysis (PCA), fisher discernment analysis (FDA), eigen-filter, cosine similarity, bayesian classifier, f-measure

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3777 The Functional Rehabilitation of Peri-Implant Tissue Defects: A Case Report

Authors: Özgür Öztürk, Cumhur Sipahi, Hande Yeşil

Abstract:

Implant retained restorations commonly consist of a metal-framework veneered with ceramic or composite facings. The increasing and expanding use of indirect resin composites in dentistry is a result of innovations in materials and processing techniques. Of special interest to the implant restorative field is the possibility that composites present significantly lower peak vertical and transverse forces transmitted at the peri-implant level compared to metal-ceramic supra structures in implant-supported restorations. A 43-year-old male patient referred to the department of prosthodontics for an implant retained fixed prosthesis. The clinical and radiographic examination of the patient demonstrated the presence of an implant in the right mandibular first molar tooth region. A considerable amount of marginal bone loss around the implant was detected in radiographic examinations combined with a remarkable peri-implant soft tissue deficiency. To minimize the chewing loads transmitted to the implant-bone interface it was decided to fabricate an indirect composite resin veneered single metal crown over a screw-retained abutment. At the end of the treatment, the functional and aesthetic deficiencies were fully compensated. After a 6 months clinical and radiographic follow-up period the not any additional pathologic invasion was detected in the implant-bone interface and implant retained restoration did not reveal any vehement complication.

Keywords: dental implant, fixed partial dentures, indirect composite resin, peri-implant defects

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3776 Analysis of Human Mental and Behavioral Models for Development of an Electroencephalography-Based Human Performance Management System

Authors: John Gaber, Youssef Ahmed, Hossam A. Gabbar, Jing Ren

Abstract:

Accidents at Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) occur due to various factors, notable among them being poor safety management and poor safety culture. During abnormal situations, the likelihood of human error is many-fold higher due to the higher cognitive workload. The most common cause of human error and high cognitive workload is mental fatigue. Electroencephalography (EEG) is a method of gathering the electromagnetic waves emitted by a human brain. We propose a safety system by monitoring brainwaves for signs of mental fatigue using an EEG system. This requires an analysis of the mental model of the NPP operator, changes in brain wave power in response to certain stimuli, and the risk factors on mental fatigue and attention that NPP operators face when performing their tasks. We analyzed these factors and developed an EEG-based monitoring system, which aims to alert NPP operators when levels of mental fatigue and attention hinders their ability to maintain safety.

Keywords: brain imaging, EEG, power plant operator, psychology

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3775 Innovation and Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Uganda Microdata

Authors: Milton Ayoki, Edward Bbaale

Abstract:

This paper analyses the relationship between innovation and employment at firm level with the objective of understanding the contribution of the different innovation strategies in fostering employment growth in Uganda. We use National Innovation Survey (micro-data of 705 Ugandan firms) for the period 2011-2014 and follow closely Harrison et al. (2014) structured approach, and relate employment growth to process innovations and to the growth of sales separately due to innovative and unchanged products. We find positive effects of product innovation on employment at firm level, while process innovation has no discernable impact on employment. Although there is evidence to suggest displacement of labour in some cases where firms only introduce new process, this effect is compensated by growth in employment from new products, which for most firms are introduced simultaneously with new process. Results suggest that source of innovation as well as size of innovating firms or end users of innovation matter for job growth. Innovation that develops from within the firm itself (user) and involving larger firms has greater impact on employment than that developed from outside or coming from within smaller firms. In addition, innovative firms are one and half times more likely to survive in the innovation driven economy environment than those that do not innovate. These results have important implications for policymakers and stakeholders in innovation ecosystem. Supporting policies need to be correctly tailored since the impacts depend on the innovation strategy (type) and characteristics and sector of the innovative firms (small, large, industry, etc.). Policies to spur investment, particularly in innovative sectors and firms with high growth potential would have long lasting effects on job creation. JEL Classification: D24, J0, J20, L20, O30.

Keywords: employment, process innovation, product innovation, Sub-Saharan Africa

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3774 Comparing Double-Stranded RNA Uptake Mechanisms in Dipteran and Lepidopteran Cell Lines

Authors: Nazanin Amanat, Alison Tayler, Steve Whyard

Abstract:

While chemical insecticides effectively control many insect pests, they also harm many non-target species. Double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) pesticides, in contrast, can be designed to target unique gene sequences and thus act in a species-specific manner. DsRNA insecticides do not, however, work equally well for all insects, and for some species that are considered refractory to dsRNA, a primary factor affecting efficacy is the relative ease by which dsRNA can enter a target cell’s cytoplasm. In this study, we are examining how different structured dsRNAs (linear, hairpin, and paperclip) can enter mosquito and lepidopteran cells, as they represent dsRNA-sensitive and refractory species, respectively. To determine how the dsRNAs enter the cells, we are using chemical inhibitors and RNA interference (RNAi)-mediated knockdown of key proteins associated with different endocytosis processes. Understanding how different dsRNAs enter cells will ultimately help in the design of molecules that overcome refractoriness to RNAi or develop resistance to dsRNA-based insecticides. To date, we have conducted chemical inhibitor experiments on both cell lines and have evidence that linear dsRNAs enter the cells using clathrin-mediated endocytosis, while the paperclip dsRNAs (pcRNAs) can enter both species’ cells in a clathrin-independent manner to induce RNAi. An alternative uptake mechanism for the pcRNAs has been tentatively identified, and the outcomes of our RNAi-mediated knockdown experiments, which should provide corroborative evidence of our initial findings, will be discussed.

Keywords: dsRNA, RNAi, uptake, insecticides, dipteran, lepidopteran

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3773 Indicator-Based Approach for Assessing Socio Economic Vulnerability of Dairy Farmers to Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in India

Authors: Aparna Radhakrishnan, Jancy Gupta, R. Dileepkumar

Abstract:

This paper aims at assessing the Socio Economic Vulnerability (SEV) of dairy farmers to Climate Variability and Change (CVC) in 3 states of Western Ghat region in India. For this purpose, a composite SEV index has been developed on the basis of functional relationships amongst sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity using 30 indicators related to dairy farming underlying the principles of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Fussel framework for nomenclature of vulnerable situation. Household level data were collected through Participatory Rural Appraisal and personal interviews of 540 dairy farmers of nine taluks, three each from a district selected from Kerala, Karnataka and Maharashtra, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data. The data were normalized and then combined into three indices for sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given using principal component analysis, to obtain the overall SEV index. Results indicated that the taluks of Western Ghats are vulnerable to CVC. The dairy farmers of Pulpally taluka were most vulnerable having the SEV score +1.24 and 42.66% farmers under high-level vulnerability category. Even though the taluks are geographically closer, there is wide variation in SEV components. Policies for incentivizing the ‘climate risk adaptation’ costs for small and marginal farmers and livelihood infrastructure for mitigating risks and promoting grass root level innovations are necessary to sustain dairy farming of the region.

Keywords: climate change, dairy, vulnerability, livelihoods, adaptation strategies

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3772 EarlyWarning for Financial Stress Events:A Credit-Regime Switching Approach

Authors: Fuchun Li, Hong Xiao

Abstract:

We propose a new early warning model for predicting financial stress events for a given future time. In this model, we examine whether credit conditions play an important role as a nonlinear propagator of shocks when predicting the likelihood of occurrence of financial stress events for a given future time. This propagation takes the form of a threshold regression in which a regime change occurs if credit conditions cross a critical threshold. Given the new early warning model for financial stress events, we evaluate the performance of this model and currently available alternatives, such as the model from signal extraction approach, and linear regression model. In-sample forecasting results indicate that the three types of models are useful tools for predicting financial stress events while none of them outperforms others across all criteria considered. The out-of-sample forecasting results suggest that the credit-regime switching model performs better than the two others across all criteria and all forecasting horizons considered.

Keywords: cut-off probability, early warning model, financial crisis, financial stress, regime-switching model, forecasting horizons

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3771 A Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for Forensic Soil Analysis: Tested Using a Simulated Crime Scene

Authors: Samara A. Testoni, Vander F. Melo, Lorna A. Dawson, Fabio A. S. Salvador

Abstract:

Soil traces are useful as forensic evidence due to their potential to transfer and adhere to different types of surfaces on a range of objects or persons. The great variability expressed by soil physical, chemical, biological and mineralogical properties show soil traces as complex mixtures. Soils are continuous and variable, no two soil samples being indistinguishable, nevertheless, the complexity of soil characteristics can provide powerful evidence for comparative forensic purposes. This work aimed to establish a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for forensic soil analysis in Brazil. We carried out a simulated crime scene with double blind sampling to calibrate the sampling procedures. Samples were collected at a range of locations covering a range of soil types found in South of Brazil: Santa Candida and Boa Vista, neighbourhoods from Curitiba (State of Parana) and in Guarani and Guaraituba, neighbourhoods from Colombo (Curitiba Metropolitan Region). A previously validated sequential analyses of chemical, physical and mineralogical analyses was developed in around 2 g of soil. The suggested SOP and the sequential range of analyses were effective in grouping the samples from the same place and from the same parent material together, as well as successfully discriminated samples from different locations and originated from different rocks. In addition, modifications to the sample treatment and analytical protocol can be made depending on the context of the forensic work.

Keywords: clay mineralogy, forensic soils analysis, sequential analyses, kaolinite, gibbsite

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3770 Patient Care Needs Assessment: An Evidence-Based Process to Inform Quality Care and Decision Making

Authors: Wynne De Jong, Robert Miller, Ross Riggs

Abstract:

Beyond the number of nurses providing care for patients, having nurses with the right skills, experience and education is essential to ensure the best possible outcomes for patients. Research studies continue to link nurse staffing and skill mix with nurse-sensitive patient outcomes; numerous studies clearly show that superior patient outcomes are associated with higher levels of regulated staff. Due to the limited number of tools and processes available to assist nurse leaders with staffing models of care, nurse leaders are constantly faced with the ongoing challenge to ensure their staffing models of care best suit their patient population. In 2009, several hospitals in Ontario, Canada participated in a research study to develop and evaluate an RN/RPN utilization toolkit. The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a toolkit for Registered Nurses/Registered Practical Nurses Staff mix decision-making based on the College of Nurses of Ontario, Canada practice standards for the utilization of RNs and RPNs. This paper will highlight how an organization has further developed the Patient Care Needs Assessment (PCNA) questionnaire, a major component of the toolkit. Moreover, it will demonstrate how it has utilized the information from PCNA to clearly identify patient and family care needs, thus providing evidence-based results to assist leaders with matching the best staffing skill mix to their patients.

Keywords: nurse staffing models of care, skill mix, nursing health human resources, patient safety

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3769 A Patient-Centered Approach to Clinical Trial Development: Real-World Evidence from a Canadian Medical Cannabis Clinic

Authors: Lucile Rapin, Cynthia El Hage, Rihab Gamaoun, Maria-Fernanda Arboleda, Erin Prosk

Abstract:

Introduction: Sante Cannabis (SC), a Canadian group of clinics dedicated to medical cannabis, based in Montreal and in the province of Quebec, has served more than 8000 patients seeking cannabis-based treatment over the past five years. As randomized clinical trials with natural medical cannabis are scarce, real-world evidence offers the opportunity to fill research gaps between scientific evidence and clinical practice. Data on the use of medical cannabis products from SC patients were prospectively collected, leading to a large real-world database on the use of medical cannabis. The aim of this study was to report information on the profiles of both patients and prescribed medical cannabis products at SC clinics, and to assess the safety of medical cannabis among Canadian patients. Methods: This is an observational retrospective study of 1342 adult patients who were authorized with medical cannabis products between October 2017 and September 2019. Information regarding demographic characteristics, therapeutic indications for medical cannabis use, patterns in dosing and dosage form of medical cannabis and adverse effects over one-year follow-up (initial and 4 follow-up (FUP) visits) were collected. Results: 59% of SC patients were female, with a mean age of 56.7 (SD= 15.6, range= (19-97)). Cannabis products were authorized mainly for patients with a diagnosis of chronic pain (68.8% of patients), cancer (6.7%), neurological disorders (5.6%), and mood disorders (5.4 %). At initial visit, a large majority (70%) of patients were authorized exclusively medical cannabis products, 27% were authorized a combination of pharmaceutical cannabinoids and medical cannabis and 3% were prescribed only pharmaceutical cannabinoids. This pattern was recurrent over the one-year follow-up. Overall, oil was the preferred formulation (average over visits 72.5%) followed by a combination of oil and dry (average 19%), other routes of administration accounted for less than 4%. Patients were predominantly prescribed products with a balanced THC:CBD ratio (59%-75% across visits). 28% of patients reported at least one adverse effect (AE) at the 3-month follow-up visit and 12% at the six-month FUP visit. 84.8% of total AEs were mild and transient. No serious AE was reported. Overall, the most common side effects reported were dizziness (11.95% of total AEs), drowsiness (11.4%), dry mouth (5.5%), nausea (4.8%), headaches (4.6%), cough (4.4%), anxiety (4.1%) and euphoria (3.5%). Other adverse effects accounted for less than 3% of total AE. Conclusion: Our results confirm that the primary area of clinical use for medical cannabis is in pain management. Patients in this cohort are largely utilizing plant-based cannabis oil products with a balanced ratio of THC:CBD. Reported adverse effects were mild and included dizziness and drowsiness. This real-world data confirms the tolerable safety profile of medical cannabis and suggests medical indications not yet validated in controlled clinical trials. Such data offers an important opportunity for the investigation of the long-term effects of cannabinoid exposure in real-life conditions. Real-world evidence can be used to direct clinical trial research efforts on specific indications and dosing patterns for product development.

Keywords: medical cannabis, safety, real-world data, Canada

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3768 Critical Approach to Define the Architectural Structure of a Health Prototype in a Rural Area of Brazil

Authors: Domenico Chizzoniti, Monica Moscatelli, Letizia Cattani, Luca Preis

Abstract:

A primary healthcare facility in developing countries should be a multifunctional space able to respond to different requirements: Flexibility, modularity, aggregation and reversibility. These basic features could be better satisfied if applied to an architectural artifact that complies with the typological, figurative and constructive aspects of the context in which it is located. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to identify a procedure that can define the figurative aspects of the architectural structure of the health prototype for the marginal areas of developing countries through a critical approach. The application context is the rural areas of the Northeast of Bahia in Brazil. The prototype should be located in the rural district of Quingoma, in the municipality of Lauro de Freitas, a particular place where there is still a cultural fusion of black and indigenous populations. Based on the historical analysis of settlement strategies and architectural structures in spaces of public interest or collective use, this paper aims to provide a procedure able to identify the categories and rules underlying typological and figurative aspects, in order to detect significant and generalizable elements, as well as materials and constructive techniques typically adopted in the rural areas of Brazil. The object of this work is therefore not only the recovery of certain constructive approaches but also the development of a procedure that integrates the requirements of the primary healthcare prototype with its surrounding economic, social, cultural, settlement and figurative conditions.

Keywords: architectural typology, developing countries, local construction techniques, primary health care.

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3767 Intramuscular Heat Shock Protein 72 and Heme Oxygenase-1 mRNA are Reduced in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Evidence That Insulin Resistance is Associated with a Disturbed Antioxidant Defense Mechanism

Authors: Ghibeche Abderrahmane

Abstract:

To examine whether genes associated with cellular defense against oxidative stress are associated with insulin sensitivity, patients with type 2 diabetes (n=7) and age-matched (n=5) and young (n=9) control subjects underwent a euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp for 120 min. Muscle samples were obtained before and after the clamp and analyzed for heat shock protein (HSP)72 and heme oxygenase (HO)-1 mRNA, intramuscular triglyceride content, and the maximal activities of β-hyroxyacyl-CoA dehydrogenase (β-HAD) and citrate synthase (CS). Basal expression of both HSP72 and HO-1 mRNA were lower (P < 0.05) by 33 and 55%, respectively, when comparing diabetic patients with age-matched and young control subjects, with no differences between the latter groups. Both basal HSP72 (r = 0.75, P < 0.001) and HO-1 (r = 0.50,P < 0.05) mRNA expression correlated with the glucose infusion rate during the clamp. Significant correlations were also observed between HSP72 mRNA and both β-HAD (r = 0.61, P < 0.01) and CS (r = 0.65, P < 0.01). HSP72 mRNA was induced (P < 0.05) by the clamp in all groups. Although HO-1 mRNA was unaffected by the clamp in both the young and age-matched control subjects, it was increased (P < 0.05) ∼70-fold in the diabetic patients after the clamp. These data demonstrate that genes involved in providing cellular protection against oxidative stress are defective in patients with type 2 diabetes and correlate with insulin-stimulated glucose disposal and markers of muscle oxidative capacity. The data provide new evidence that the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes involves perturbations to the antioxidant defense mechanism within skeletal muscle.

Keywords: euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic, HSP72, mRNA, diabete

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3766 Palynology of the Cretaceous Deposits of the Southeast Sirt Basin, Libya

Authors: Khaled Mahmud Gaddah

Abstract:

Cretaceous deposits in the southeast of the Sirt Basin of Libya occur in several grabens that formed during a major phase of rifting related to the opening of the Tethys. They include continental deposits of Early Cretaceous age that belong to the Nubian Formation and marginal to fully marine deposits of Late Cretaceous age that belong to the Lidam Formation and transitional beds. The sequence was extensively sampled from twenty-two boreholes and palynologically analysed. Much of the sequence is barren. However, subordinate shales in all formations yield diverse assemblages of poorly to well preserved and thermally middle to post mature palynomorphs. Most of the assemblages contain non-marine palynomorphs (spores, pollen, and freshwater algae), although some contain rare marine elements (dinoflagellate cysts and acritarchs). The palynofloras enabled the recognition of six assemblage zones of the late Barremian-Turonian age based on the dominant and base/top occurrences of stratigraphically useful palynomorphs: AI (Afropollisspp.-Aequitriraditesspinulosus) of late Barremian age; AIIa (Scenedesmusbifidus-S. sp.) of late Barremian?-early Aptian age; AIIb (Afropollisoperculatus-A. zonatus) of Aptian age; AIII (Crybelosporitespannuceus-Afropollisjardinus) of early Albian age; AIV (Subtilisphaera sp.-Lophosphaeridiumspp.) of Cenomanian-?Turonian age; AIV (Pediastrumbifidites-Leiosphaeridiaspp.) of Cenomanian?-Turonian age. These assemblages are comparable to others from Northern Gondwana (particularly from Libya and Egypt) and correspond to established Cretaceous palynofloral provinces. Palynofacies analysis is used to interpret the depositional environments, and five palynofacies types are recognised that reflect increasing marine influence up section.

Keywords: palynology, palynomorphs, palynofacies, tethys, sirt basin

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3765 Nuclear Terrorism and Proliferation: A Conceptual Clarification

Authors: Uche A. Nnawulezi

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the advancing nature of nuclear terrorism and proliferation in the global environment and its attendant impacts. It analyzes discourse and practice with respect to the general prohibition on the utilization of fissionable radioactive materials. Thus, there has been a few ideological, reasonable and academic recommendations of policies aimed at eliminating nuclear weapons which its ultimate nightmare has remained an assault including nuclear explosion in densely populated urban areas. Likewise, this paper concentrates on safety measures aimed at preventing nuclear assaults which should not just concentrate on endeavors to prevent terrorists from exploding nuclear gadgets but should be more concerned on endeavors aimed at preventing the acquisition of nuclear weapons in the first place. The author of this paper has pointed out that the non-proliferation treaty should be vigorously supported as well as the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty brought into force. This paper depended unequivocally on secondary sources, for example, textbooks, journals, articles, and periodicals. It concludes that the fundamental proposals made in this paper if completely used shall remain a cornerstone of efforts made in preventing the spread of nuclear weapons. At last, the only way is to eliminate stockpiles of nuclear weapons in the world or else the likelihood of nuclear terrorism remains a nightmare.

Keywords: nuclear, terrorism, proliferation, global environment

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3764 Safety of Ports, Harbours, Marine Terminals: Application of Quantitative Risk Assessment

Authors: Dipak Sonawane, Sudarshan Daga, Somesh Gupta

Abstract:

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is a very precise and consistent approach to defining the likelihood, consequence and severity of a major incident/accident. A variety of hazardous cargoes in bulk, such as hydrocarbons and flammable/toxic chemicals, are handled at various ports. It is well known that most of the operations are hazardous, having the potential of damaging property, causing injury/loss of life and, in some cases, the threat of environmental damage. In order to ensure adequate safety towards life, environment and property, the application of scientific methods such as QRA is inevitable. By means of these methods, comprehensive hazard identification, risk assessment and appropriate implementation of Risk Control measures can be carried out. In this paper, the authors, based on their extensive experience in Risk Analysis for ports and harbors, have exhibited how QRA can be used in practice to minimize and contain risk to tolerable levels. A specific case involving the operation for unloading of hydrocarbon at a port is presented. The exercise provides confidence that the method of QRA, as proposed by the authors, can be used appropriately for the identification of hazards and risk assessment of Ports and Terminals.

Keywords: quantitative risk assessment, hazard assessment, consequence analysis, individual risk, societal risk

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