Search results for: planning theory
415 Diminishing Constitutional Hyper-Rigidity by Means of Digital Technologies: A Case Study on E-Consultations in Canada
Authors: Amy Buckley
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The purpose of this article is to assess the problem of constitutional hyper-rigidity to consider how it and the associated tensions with democratic constitutionalism can be diminished by means of using digital democratic technologies. In other words, this article examines how digital technologies can assist us in ensuring fidelity to the will of the constituent power without paying the price of hyper-rigidity. In doing so, it is impossible to ignore that digital strategies can also harm democracy through, for example, manipulation, hacking, ‘fake news,’ and the like. This article considers the tension between constitutional hyper-rigidity and democratic constitutionalism and the relevant strengths and weaknesses of digital democratic strategies before undertaking a case study on Canadian e-consultations and drawing its conclusions. This article observes democratic constitutionalism through the lens of the theory of deliberative democracy to suggest that the application of digital strategies can, notwithstanding their pitfalls, improve a constituency’s amendment culture and, thus, diminish constitutional hyper-rigidity. Constitutional hyper-rigidity is not a new or underexplored concept. At a high level, a constitution can be said to be ‘hyper-rigid’ when its formal amendment procedure is so difficult to enact that it does not take place or is limited in its application. This article claims that hyper-rigidity is one problem with ordinary constitutionalism that fails to satisfy the principled requirements of democratic constitutionalism. Given the rise and development of technology that has taken place since the Digital Revolution, there has been a significant expansion in the possibility for digital democratic strategies to overcome the democratic constitutionalism failures resulting from constitutional hyper-rigidity. Typically, these strategies have included, inter alia, e- consultations, e-voting systems, and online polling forums, all of which significantly improve the ability of politicians and judges to directly obtain the opinion of constituents on any number of matters. This article expands on the application of these strategies through its Canadian e-consultation case study and presents them as a solution to poor amendment culture and, consequently, constitutional hyper-rigidity. Hyper-rigidity is a common descriptor of many written and unwritten constitutions, including the United States, Australian, and Canadian constitutions as just some examples. This article undertakes a case study on Canada, in particular, as it is a jurisdiction less commonly cited in academic literature generally concerned with hyper-rigidity and because Canada has to some extent, championed the use of e-consultations. In Part I of this article, I identify the problem, being that the consequence of constitutional hyper-rigidity is in tension with the principles of democratic constitutionalism. In Part II, I identify and explore a potential solution, the implementation of digital democratic strategies as a means of reducing constitutional hyper-rigidity. In Part III, I explore Canada’s e-consultations as a case study for assessing whether digital democratic strategies do, in fact, improve a constituency’s amendment culture thus reducing constitutional hyper-rigidity and the associated tension that arises with the principles of democratic constitutionalism. The idea is to run a case study and then assess whether I can generalise the conclusions.Keywords: constitutional hyper-rigidity, digital democracy, deliberative democracy, democratic constitutionalism
Procedia PDF Downloads 76414 The Re-Emergence of Russia Foreign Policy (Case Study: Middle East)
Authors: Maryam Azish
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Russia, as an emerging global player in recent years, has projected a special place in the Middle East. Despite all the challenges it has faced over the years, it has always considered its presence in various fields with a strategy that has defined its maneuvering power as a level of competition and even confrontation with the United States. Therefore, its current approach is considered important as an influential actor in the Middle East. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, when the Russians withdrew completely from the Middle East, the American scene remained almost unrivaled by the Americans. With the start of the US-led war in Iraq and Afghanistan and the subsequent developments that led to the US military and political defeat, a new chapter in regional security was created in which ISIL and Taliban terrorism went along with the Arab Spring to destabilize the Middle East. Because of this, the Americans took every opportunity to strengthen their military presence. Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan have always been the three areas where terrorism was shaped, and the countries of the region have each reacted to this evil phenomenon accordingly. The West dealt with this phenomenon on a case-by-case basis in the general circumstances that created the fluid situation in the Arab countries and the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the US of falling asleep in the face of ISIS and terrorism in Syria. In fact, this was an opportunity for the Russians to revive their presence in Syria. This article suggests that utilizing the recognition policy along with the constructivism theory will offer a better knowledge of Russia’s endeavors to endorse its international position. Accordingly, Russia’s distinctiveness and its ambitions for a situation of great power have played a vital role in shaping national interests and, subsequently, in foreign policy, in Putin's era in particular. The focal claim of the paper is that scrutinize Russia’s foreign policy with realistic methods cannot be attained. Consequently, with an aim to fill the prevailing vacuum, this study exploits the politics of acknowledgment in the context of constructivism to examine Russia’s foreign policy in the Middle East. The results of this paper show that the key aim of Russian foreign policy discourse, accompanied by increasing power and wealth, is to recognize and reinstate the position of great power in the universal system. The Syrian crisis has created an opportunity for Russia to unite its position in the developing global and regional order after ages of dynamic and prevalent existence in the Middle East as well as contradicting US unilateralism. In the meantime, the writer thinks that the question of identifying Russia’s position in the global system by the West has played a foremost role in serving its national interests.Keywords: constructivism, foreign Policy, middle East, Russia, regionalism
Procedia PDF Downloads 149413 Densities and Volumetric Properties of {Difurylmethane + [(C5 – C8) N-Alkane or an Amide]} Binary Systems at 293.15, 298.15 and 303.15 K: Modelling Excess Molar Volumes by Prigogine-Flory-Patterson Theory
Authors: Belcher Fulele, W. A. A. Ddamba
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Study of solvent systems contributes to the understanding of intermolecular interactions that occur in binary mixtures. These interactions involves among others strong dipole-dipole interactions and weak van de Waals interactions which are of significant application in pharmaceuticals, solvent extractions, design of reactors and solvent handling and storage processes. Binary mixtures of solvents can thus be used as a model to interpret thermodynamic behavior that occur in a real solution mixture. Densities of pure DFM, n-alkanes (n-pentane, n-hexane, n-heptane and n-octane) and amides (N-methylformamide, N-ethylformamide, N,N-dimethylformamide and N,N-dimethylacetamide) as well as their [DFM + ((C5-C8) n-alkane or amide)] binary mixtures over the entire composition range, have been reported at temperature 293.15, 298.15 and 303.15 K and atmospheric pressure. These data has been used to derive the thermodynamic properties: the excess molar volume of solution, apparent molar volumes, excess partial molar volumes, limiting excess partial molar volumes, limiting partial molar volumes of each component of a binary mixture. The results are discussed in terms of possible intermolecular interactions and structural effects that occur in the binary mixtures. The variation of excess molar volume with DFM composition for the [DFM + (C5-C7) n-alkane] binary mixture exhibit a sigmoidal behavior while for the [DFM + n-octane] binary system, positive deviation of excess molar volume function was observed over the entire composition range. For each of the [DFM + (C5-C8) n-alkane] binary mixture, the excess molar volume exhibited a fall with increase in temperature. The excess molar volume for each of [DFM + (NMF or NEF or DMF or DMA)] binary system was negative over the entire DFM composition at each of the three temperatures investigated. The negative deviations in excess molar volume values follow the order: DMA > DMF > NEF > NMF. Increase in temperature has a greater effect on component self-association than it has on complex formation between molecules of components in [DFM + (NMF or NEF or DMF or DMA)] binary mixture which shifts complex formation equilibrium towards complex to give a drop in excess molar volume with increase in temperature. The Prigogine-Flory-Patterson model has been applied at 298.15 K and reveals that the free volume is the most important contributing term to the excess experimental molar volume data for [DFM + (n-pentane or n-octane)] binary system. For [DFM + (NMF or DMF or DMA)] binary mixture, the interactional term and characteristic pressure term contributions are the most important contributing terms in describing the sign of experimental excess molar volume. The mixture systems contributed to the understanding of interactions of polar solvents with proteins (amides) with non-polar solvents (alkanes) in biological systems.Keywords: alkanes, amides, excess thermodynamic parameters, Prigogine-Flory-Patterson model
Procedia PDF Downloads 355412 A Standard-Based Competency Evaluation Scale for Preparing Qualified Adapted Physical Education Teachers
Authors: Jiabei Zhang
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Although adapted physical education (APE) teacher preparation programs are available in the nation, a consistent standards-based competency evaluation scale for preparing of qualified personnel for teaching children with disabilities in APE cannot be identified in the literature. The purpose of this study was to develop a standard-based competency evaluation scale for assessing qualifications for teaching children with disabilities in APE. Standard-based competencies were reviewed and identified based on research evidence documented as effective in teaching children with disabilities in APE. A standard-based competency scale was developed for assessing qualifications for teaching children with disabilities in APE. This scale included 20 standard-based competencies and a 4-point Likert-type scale for each standard-based competency. The first standard-based competency is knowledgeable of the causes of disabilities and their effects. The second competency is the ability to assess physical education skills of children with disabilities. The third competency is able to collaborate with other personnel. The fourth competency is knowledgeable of the measurement and evaluation. The fifth competency is to understand federal and state laws. The sixth competency is knowledgeable of the unique characteristics of all learners. The seventh competency is the ability to write in behavioral terms for objectives. The eighth competency is knowledgeable of developmental characteristics. The ninth competency is knowledgeable of normal and abnormal motor behaviors. The tenth competency is the ability to analyze and adapt the physical education curriculums. The eleventh competency is to understand the history and the philosophy of physical education. The twelfth competency is to understand curriculum theory and development. The thirteenth competency is the ability to utilize instructional designs and plans. The fourteenth competency is the ability to create and implement physical activities. The fifteenth competency is the ability to utilize technology applications. The sixteenth competency is to understand the value of program evaluation. The seventeenth competency is to understand professional standards. The eighteenth competency is knowledgeable of the focused instruction and individualized interventions. The nineteenth competency is able to complete a research project independently. The twentieth competency is to teach children with disabilities in APE independently. The 4-point Likert-type scale ranges from 1 for incompetent to 4 for highly competent. This scale is used for assessing if one completing all course works is eligible for receiving an endorsement for teaching children with disabilities in APE, which is completed based on the grades earned on three courses targeted for each standard-based competency. A mean grade received in three courses primarily addressing a standard-based competency will be marked on a competency level in the above scale. The level 4 is marked for a mean grade of A one receives over three courses, the level 3 for a mean grade of B over three courses, and so on. One should receive a mean score of 3 (competent level) or higher (highly competent) across 19 standard-based competencies after completing all courses specified for receiving an endorsement for teaching children with disabilities in APE. The validity, reliability, and objectivity of this standard-based competency evaluation scale are to be documented.Keywords: evaluation scale, teacher preparation, adapted physical education teachers, and children with disabilities
Procedia PDF Downloads 116411 From Theory to Practice: An Iterative Design Process in Implementing English Medium Instruction in Higher Education
Authors: Linda Weinberg, Miriam Symon
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While few institutions of higher education in Israel offer international programs taught entirely in English, many Israeli students today can study at least one content course taught in English during their degree program. In particular, with the growth of international partnerships and opportunities for student mobility, English medium instruction is a growing phenomenon. There are however no official guidelines in Israel for how to develop and implement content courses in English and no training to help lecturers prepare for teaching their materials in a foreign language. Furthermore, the implications for the students and the nature of the courses themselves have not been sufficiently considered. In addition, the institution must have lecturers who are able to teach these courses effectively in English. An international project funded by the European Union addresses these issues and a set of guidelines which provide guidance for lecturers in adapting their courses for delivery in English have been developed. A train-the-trainer approach is adopted in order to cascade knowledge and experience in English medium instruction from experts to language teachers and on to content teachers thus maximizing the scope of professional development. To accompany training, a model English medium course has been created which serves the dual purpose of highlighting alternatives to the frontal lecture while integrating language learning objectives with content goals. This course can also be used as a standalone content course. The development of the guidelines and of the course utilized backwards, forwards and central design in an iterative process. The goals for combined language and content outcomes were identified first after which a suitable framework for achieving these goals was constructed. The assessment procedures evolved through collaboration between content and language specialists and subsequently were put into action during a piloting phase. Feedback from the piloting teachers and from the students highlight the need for clear channels of communication to encourage frank and honest discussion of expectations versus reality. While much of what goes on in the English medium classroom requires no better teaching skills than are required in any classroom, the understanding of students' abilities in achieving reasonable learning outcomes in a foreign language must be rationalized and accommodated within the course design. Concomitantly, preparatory language classes for students must be able to adapt to prepare students for specific language and cognitive skills and activities that courses conducted in English require. This paper presents findings from the implementation of a purpose-designed English medium instruction course arrived at through an iterative backwards, forwards and central design process utilizing feedback from students and lecturers alike leading to suggested guidelines for English medium instruction in higher education.Keywords: English medium instruction, higher education, iterative design process, train-the-trainer
Procedia PDF Downloads 300410 Using Statistical Significance and Prediction to Test Long/Short Term Public Services and Patients' Cohorts: A Case Study in Scotland
Authors: Raptis Sotirios
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Health and social care (HSc) services planning and scheduling are facing unprecedented challenges due to the pandemic pressure and also suffer from unplanned spending that is negatively impacted by the global financial crisis. Data-driven can help to improve policies, plan and design services provision schedules using algorithms assist healthcare managers’ to face unexpected demands using fewer resources. The paper discusses services packing using statistical significance tests and machine learning (ML) to evaluate demands similarity and coupling. This is achieved by predicting the range of the demand (class) using ML methods such as CART, random forests (RF), and logistic regression (LGR). The significance tests Chi-Squared test and Student test are used on data over a 39 years span for which HSc services data exist for services delivered in Scotland. The demands are probabilistically associated through statistical hypotheses that assume that the target service’s demands are statistically dependent on other demands as a NULL hypothesis. This linkage can be confirmed or not by the data. Complementarily, ML methods are used to linearly predict the above target demands from the statistically found associations and extend the linear dependence of the target’s demand to independent demands forming, thus groups of services. Statistical tests confirm ML couplings making the prediction also statistically meaningful and prove that a target service can be matched reliably to other services, and ML shows these indicated relationships can also be linear ones. Zero paddings were used for missing years records and illustrated better such relationships both for limited years and in the entire span offering long term data visualizations while limited years groups explained how well patients numbers can be related in short periods or can change over time as opposed to behaviors across more years. The prediction performance of the associations is measured using Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) AUC and ACC metrics as well as the statistical tests, Chi-Squared and Student. Co-plots and comparison tables for RF, CART, and LGR as well as p-values and Information Exchange(IE), are provided showing the specific behavior of the ML and of the statistical tests and the behavior using different learning ratios. The impact of k-NN and cross-correlation and C-Means first groupings is also studied over limited years and the entire span. It was found that CART was generally behind RF and LGR, but in some interesting cases, LGR reached an AUC=0 falling below CART, while the ACC was as high as 0.912, showing that ML methods can be confused padding or by data irregularities or outliers. On average, 3 linear predictors were sufficient, LGR was found competing RF well, and CART followed with the same performance at higher learning ratios. Services were packed only if when significance level(p-value) of their association coefficient was more than 0.05. Social factors relationships were observed between home care services and treatment of old people, birth weights, alcoholism, drug abuse, and emergency admissions. The work found that different HSc services can be well packed as plans of limited years, across various services sectors, learning configurations, as confirmed using statistical hypotheses.Keywords: class, cohorts, data frames, grouping, prediction, prob-ability, services
Procedia PDF Downloads 231409 Stakeholder Perception in the Role of Short-term Accommodations on the Place Brand and Real Estate Development of Urban Areas: A Case Study of Malate, Manila
Authors: Virgilio Angelo Gelera Gener
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This study investigates the role of short-term accommodations on the place brand and real estate development of urban areas. It aims to know the perceptions of the general public, real estate developers, as well as city and barangay-level local government units (LGUs) on how these lodgings affect the place brand and land value of a community. It likewise attempts to identify the personal and institutional variables having a great influence on said perceptions in order to provide a better understanding of these establishments and their relevance within urban localities. Using certain sources, Malate, Manila was identified to be the ideal study area of the thesis. This prompted the employment of mixed methods research as the study’s fundamental data gathering and analytical tool. Here, a survey with 350 locals was done, asking them questions that would answer the aforementioned queries. Thereafter, a Pearson Chi-square Test and Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) were utilized to determine the variables affecting their perceptions. There were also Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with the three (3) most populated Malate barangays, as well as Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with selected city officials and fifteen (15) real estate company representatives. With that, survey results showed that although a 1992 Department of Tourism (DOT) Circular regards short-term accommodations as lodgings mainly for travelers, most people actually use it for their private/intimate moments. Because of this, the survey further revealed that short-term accommodations exhibit a negative place brand among the respondents though they also believe that it’s still one of society’s most important economic players. Statistics from the Pearson Chi-square Test, on the other hand, indicate that there are fourteen (14) out of seventeen (17) variables exhibiting great influence on respondents’ perceptions. Whereas MLR findings show that being born in Malate and being part of a family household was the most significant regardless of socio-economic level and monthly household income. For the city officials, it was revealed that said lodgings are actually the second-highest earners in the City’s lodging industry. It was further stated that their zoning ordinance treats short-term accommodations just like any other lodging enterprise. So it’s perfectly legal for these establishments to situate themselves near residential areas and/or institutional structures. A sit down with barangays, on the other hand, recognized the economic benefits of short-term accommodations but likewise admitted that it contributes a negative place brand to the community. Lastly, real estate developers are amenable to having their projects built near short-term accommodations, for they do not have any bad views against it. They explained that their projects sites have always been motivated by suitability, liability, and marketability factors only. Overall, these findings merit a recalibration of the zoning ordinance and DOT Circular, as well as the imposition of regulations on their sexually suggestive roadside advertisements. Then, once relevant measures are refined for proper implementation, it can also pave the way for spatial interventions (like visual buffer corridors) to better address the needs of the locals, private groups, and government.Keywords: estate planning, place brand, real estate development, short-term accommodations
Procedia PDF Downloads 165408 Company-Independent Standardization of Timber Construction to Promote Urban Redensification of Housing Stock
Authors: Andreas Schweiger, Matthias Gnigler, Elisabeth Wieder, Michael Grobbauer
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Especially in the alpine region, available areas for new residential development are limited. One possible solution is to exploit the potential of existing settlements. Urban redensification, especially the addition of floors to existing buildings, requires efficient, lightweight constructions with short construction times. This topic is being addressed in the five-year Alpine Building Centre. The focus of this cooperation between Salzburg University of Applied Sciences and RSA GH Studio iSPACE is on transdisciplinary research in the fields of building and energy technology, building envelopes and geoinformation, as well as the transfer of research results to industry. One development objective is a system of wood panel system construction with a high degree of prefabrication to optimize the construction quality, the construction time and the applicability for small and medium-sized enterprises. The system serves as a reliable working basis for mastering the complex building task of redensification. The technical solution is the development of an open system in timber frame and solid wood construction, which is suitable for a maximum two-story addition of residential buildings. The applicability of the system is mainly influenced by the existing building stock. Therefore, timber frame and solid timber construction are combined where necessary to bridge large spans of the existing structure while keeping the dead weight as low as possible. Escape routes are usually constructed in reinforced concrete and are located outside the system boundary. Thus, within the framework of the legal and normative requirements of timber construction, a hybrid construction method for redensification created. Component structure, load-bearing structure and detail constructions are developed in accordance with the relevant requirements. The results are directly applicable in individual cases, with the exception of the required verifications. In order to verify the practical suitability of the developed system, stakeholder workshops are held on the one hand, and the system is applied in the planning of a two-storey extension on the other hand. A company-independent construction standard offers the possibility of cooperation and bundling of capacities in order to be able to handle larger construction volumes in collaboration with several companies. Numerous further developments can take place on the basis of the system, which is under open license. The construction system will support planners and contractors from design to execution. In this context, open means publicly published and freely usable and modifiable for own use as long as the authorship and deviations are mentioned. The companies are provided with a system manual, which contains the system description and an application manual. This manual will facilitate the selection of the correct component cross-sections for the specific construction projects by means of all component and detail specifications. This presentation highlights the initial situation, the motivation, the approach, but especially the technical solution as well as the possibilities for the application. After an explanation of the objectives and working methods, the component and detail specifications are presented as work results and their application.Keywords: redensification, SME, urban development, wood building system
Procedia PDF Downloads 111407 Increased Envy and Schadenfreude in Parents of Newborns
Authors: Ana-María Gómez-Carvajal, Hernando Santamaría-García, Mateo Bernal, Mario Valderrama, Daniela Lizarazo, Juliana Restrepo, María Fernanda Barreto, Angélica Parra, Paula Torres, Diana Matallana, Jaime Silva, José Santamaría-García, Sandra Baez
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Higher levels of oxytocin are associated with better performance on social cognition tasks. However, higher levels of oxytocin have also been associated with increased levels of envy and schadenfreude. Considering these antecedents, this study aims to explore social emotions (i.e., envy and schadenfreude) and other components of social cognition (i.e. ToM and empathy), in women in the puerperal period and their respective partners, compared to a control group of men and women without children or partners. Control women should be in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle or taking oral contraceptives as they allow oxytocin levels to remain stable. We selected this population since increased levels of oxytocin are present in both mothers and fathers of newborn babies. Both groups were matched by age, sex, and education level. Twenty-two parents of newborns (11 women, 11 men) and 15 controls (8 women, 7 men) performed an experimental task designed to trigger schadenfreude and envy. In this task, each participant was shown a real-life photograph and a description of two target characters matched in age and gender with the participant. The task comprised two experimental blocks. In the first block, participants read 15 sentences describing fortunate events involving either character. After reading each sentence, participants rated the event in terms of how much envy they felt for the character (1=no envy, 9=extreme envy). In the second block, participants read and reported the intensity of their pleasure (schadenfreude, 1=no pleasure, 9=extreme pleasure) in response to 15 unfortunate events happening to the characters. Five neutral events were included in each block. Moreover, participants were assessed with ToM and empathy tests. Potential confounding variables such as general cognitive functioning, stress levels, hours of sleep and depression symptoms were also measured. Results showed that parents of newborns showed increased levels of envy and schadenfreude. These effects are not explained by any confounding factor. Moreover, no significant differences were found in ToM or empathy tests. Our results offer unprecedented evidence of specific differences in envy and schadenfreude levels in parents of newborns. Our findings support previous studies showing a negative relationship between oxytocin levels and negative social emotions. Further studies should assess the direct relationship between oxytocin levels in parents of newborns and the performance in social emotions tasks.Keywords: envy, empathy, oxytocin, schadenfreude, social emotions, theory of mind
Procedia PDF Downloads 317406 The Governance of Net-Zero Emission Urban Bus Transitions in the United Kingdom: Insight from a Transition Visioning Stakeholder Workshop
Authors: Iraklis Argyriou
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The transition to net-zero emission urban bus (ZEB) systems is receiving increased attention in research and policymaking throughout the globe. Most studies in this area tend to address techno-economic aspects and the perspectives of a narrow group of stakeholders, while they largely overlook analysis of current bus system dynamics. This offers limited insight into the types of ZEB governance challenges and opportunities that are encountered in real-world contexts, as well as into some of the immediate actions that need to be taken to set off the transition over the longer term. This research offers a multi-stakeholder perspective into both the technical and non-technical factors that influence ZEB transitions within a particular context, the UK. It does so by drawing from a recent transition visioning stakeholder workshop (June 2023) with key public, private and civic actors of the urban bus transportation system. Using NVivo software to qualitatively analyze the workshop discussions, the research examines the key technological and funding aspects, as well as the short-term actions (over the next five years), that need to be addressed for supporting the ZEB transition in UK cities. It finds that ZEB technology has reached a mature stage (i.e., high efficiency of batteries, motors and inverters), but important improvements can be pursued through greater control and integration of ZEB technological components and systems. In this regard, telemetry, predictive maintenance and adaptive control strategies pertinent to the performance and operation of ZEB vehicles have a key role to play in the techno-economic advancement of the transition. Yet, more pressing gaps were identified in the current ZEB funding regime. Whereas the UK central government supports greater ZEB adoption through a series of grants and subsidies, the scale of the funding and its fragmented nature do not match the needs for a UK-wide transition. Funding devolution arrangements (i.e., stable funding settlement deals between the central government and the devolved administrations/local authorities), as well as locally-driven schemes (i.e., congestion charging/workplace parking levy), could then enhance the financial prospects of the transition. As for short-term action, three areas were identified as critical: (1) the creation of whole value chains around the supply, use and recycling of ZEB components; (2) the ZEB retrofitting of existing fleets; and (3) integrated transportation that prioritizes buses as a first-choice, convenient and reliable mode while it simultaneously reduces car dependency in urban areas. Taken together, the findings point to the need for place-based transition approaches that create a viable techno-economic ecosystem for ZEB development but at the same time adopt a broader governance perspective beyond a ‘net-zero’ and ‘bus sectoral’ focus. As such, multi-actor collaborations and the coordination of wider resources and agency, both vertically across institutional scales and horizontally across transport, energy and urban planning, become fundamental features of comprehensive ZEB responses. The lessons from the UK case can inform a broader body of empirical contextual knowledge of ZEB transition governance within domestic political economies of public transportation.Keywords: net-zero emission transition, stakeholders, transition governance, UK, urban bus transportation
Procedia PDF Downloads 75405 An Exploration of the Experiences of Women in Polygamous Marriages: A Case Study of Matizha Village, Masvingo, Zimbabwe
Authors: Flora Takayindisa, Tsoaledi Thobejane, Thizwilondi Mudau
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This study highlights what people in polygamous marriages face on a daily basis. It argues that there are more disadvantages for women in polygamous marriages than their counterparts in monogamous relationships. The study further suggests that the patriarchal power structure seems to take a powerful and effective role on polygamous marriages in our societies, particularly in Zimbabwe where this study took place. The study explored the intricacies of polygamous marriages and how these dominances can be resolved. The research is therefore presented through the ‘lived realities’ of the affected women in polygamous marriages in Gutu District located in Masvingo Province of Zimbabwe. Polygamous marriages are practised in different societies. Some women who are practising a polygamous lifestyle are emotionally and physically abused in their relationships. Evidence also suggests children from polygamous marriages also suffer psychologically when their fathers take other wives. Relationships within the family are very difficult because of the husband’s seeming favouritism for one wife. Children are mostly affected by disputes between co-wives and they often lack quality time with their fathers. There are mixed feelings about polygamous marriages. There are some people who condemn it saying inhumane. However, considerations must be made of what it might mean to other people who do not have choices of any other form of marriage. The other factor that has to be noted is that polygamous marriages are not always negative. There are some positive things that result from the polygamous marriages. The study was conducted in a village called Matizha. In the study, a qualitative research approach was employed to stimulate awareness of the social, cultural, religious and the effect of economic factors in polygamous marriages. This approach facilitates a unique understanding of the experiences of women in polygamous marriages, their experiences being both negative and positive. The qualitative type of research method enabled the respondents to have an open minded when they were being asked questions. The researcher utilised the feminist theory in the study. The researcher employed guide interviews to acquire information from the participants. The chapter focuses on the participants who took part in the study, how the participants were selected, ethical considerations, data collection, the interview process, the research instruments and the summary. The data was obtained using a guided interview for all the respondents ranging from all ages who are in polygamous marriages. The researcher presented the demographic information of the participants. Thereafter, the researcher presented other aspects of the data collection like social factors, economic factors and also religious affiliation. The conclusions and recommendations are made from the four main themes that came up from the discussions. The recommendations were made for the women, the policies and laws affecting women, and finally, recommendations for future research. It is believed that the overall objectives of the study have been met and research questions have been answered based on the findings of the study discussed.Keywords: co-wives, egalitarianism, experiences, polyandry, polygamy, woman
Procedia PDF Downloads 261404 Disaster Preparedness for People with Disabilities through EPPO's Educational Awareness Initiative
Authors: A. Kourou, A. Ioakeimidou, E. Pelli, M. Panoutsopoulou, V. Abramea
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Worldwide there is a growing recognition that education is a critical component of any disaster impacts reduction effort and a great challenge too. Given this challenge, a broad range of awareness raising projects at all levels are implemented and are continuously evaluated by Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization (EPPO). This paper presents an overview of EPPO educational initiative (seminars, lectures, workshops, campaigns and educational material) and its evaluation results. The abovementioned initiative is focused to aware the public, train teachers and civil protection staff, inform students and educate people with disabilities on subjects related to earthquake reduction issues. The better understating of how human activity can link to disaster and what can be done at the individual, family or workplace level to contribute to seismic reduction are the main issues of EPPO projects. Survey results revealed that a high percentage of teachers (included the ones of special schools) from all over the country have taken the appropriate preparedness measures at schools. On the other hand, the implementation of earthquake preparedness measures at various workplaces (kindergartens, banks, utilities etc.) has still significant room for improvement. Results show that the employees in banks and public utilities have substantially higher rates in preventive and preparedness actions in their workplaces than workers in kindergartens and other workplaces. One of the EPPO educational priorities is to enhance earthquake preparedness of people with disabilities. Booklets, posters and applications have been created with the financial support of the Council of Europe, addressed to people who have mobility impairments, learning difficulties or cognitive disability (ή intellectual disabilities). Part of the educational material was developed using the «easy-to-read» method and Makaton language program with the collaboration of experts on special needs education and teams of people with cognitive disability. Furthermore, earthquake safety seminars and earthquake drills have been implemented in order to develop children’s, parents’ and teachers abilities and skills on earthquake impacts reduction. To enhance the abovementioned efforts, EPPO is a partner at prevention and preparedness projects supported by EU Civil Protection Financial Instrument. One of them is E-PreS’ project (Monitoring and Evaluation of Natural Hazard Preparedness at School Environment). The main objectives of E-PreS project are: 1) to create smart tools which define, simulate and evaluate drills procedure at schools, centers of vocational training of people with disabilities or other workplaces, and 2) to involve students or adults with disabilities in the E-PreS system evacuation procedure in case of earthquake, flood, or volcanic occurrence. Two other EU projects (RACCE educational kit and EVANDE educational platform) are also with the aim of contributing to raising awareness among people with disabilities, students, teachers, volunteers etc. It is worth mentioning that even though in Greece many efforts have been done till now to build awareness towards earthquakes and establish preparedness status for prospective earthquakes, there are still actions to be taken.Keywords: earthquake, emergency plans, E-PreS project, people with disabilities, special needs education
Procedia PDF Downloads 265403 Social Mobility and Urbanization: Case Study of Well-Educated Urban Migrant's Life Experience in the Era of China's New Urbanization Project
Authors: Xu Heng
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Since the financial crisis of 2008 and the resulting Great Recession, the number of China’s unemployed college graduate reached over 500 thousand in 2011. Following the severe situation of college graduate employment, there has been growing public concern about college graduates, especially those with the less-privileged background, and their working and living condition in metropolises. Previous studies indicate that well-educated urban migrants with less-privileged background tend to obtain temporary occupation with less financial income and lower social status. Those vulnerable young migrants are described as ‘Ant Tribe’ by some scholars. However, since the implementation of a new urbanization project, together with the relaxed Hukou system and the acceleration of socio-economic development in middle/small cities, some researchers described well-educated urban migrant’s situation and the prospect of upward social mobility in urban areas in an overly optimistic light. In order to shed more lights on the underlying tensions encountered by China’s well-educated urban migrants in their upward social mobility pursuit, this research mainly focuses on 10 well-educated urban migrants’ life trajectories between their university-to-work transition and their current situation. All selected well-educated urban migrants are young adults with rural background who have already received higher education qualification from first-tier universities of Wuhan City (capital of Hubei Province). Drawing on the in-depth interviews with 10 participants and Inspired by Lahire’s Theory of Plural Actor, this study yields the following preliminary findings; 1) For those migrants who move to super-mega cities (i.e., Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou) or stay in Wuhan after college graduation, their inadequacies of economic and social capital are the structural factors which negatively influence their living condition and further shape their plan for career development. The incompatibility between the sub-fields of urban life and the disposition, which generated from their early socialization, is the main cause for marginalized position in the metropolises. 2) For those migrants who move back to middle/small cities located in their hometown regions, the inconsistency between the disposition, which generated from college life, and the organizational habitus of the workplace is the main cause for their sense of ‘fish out of water’, even though they have obtained the stable occupation of local government or state-owned enterprise. On the whole, this research illuminates how the underlying the structural forces shape well-educated urban migrants’ life trajectories and hinder their upward social mobility under the context of new urbanization project.Keywords: life trajectory, social mobility, urbanization, well-educated urban migrant
Procedia PDF Downloads 215402 The Background of Ornamental Design Practice: Theory and Practice Based Research on Ornamental Traditions
Authors: Jenna Pyorala
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This research looks at the principles and purposes ornamental design has served in the field of textile design. Ornamental designs are characterized by richness of details, abundance of elements, vegetative motifs and organic forms that flow harmoniously in complex compositions. Research on ornamental design is significant, because ornaments have been overlooked and considered as less meaningful and aesthetically pleasing than minimalistic, modern designs. This is despite the fact that in many parts of the world ornaments have been an important part of the cultural identification and expression for centuries. Ornament has been claimed to be superficial and merely used as a decorative way to hide the faults of designs. Such generalization is an incorrect interpretation of the real purposes of ornament. Many ornamental patterns tell stories, present mythological scenes or convey symbolistic meanings. Historically, ornamental decorations have been representing ideas and characteristics such as abundance, wealth, power and personal magnificence. The production of fine ornaments required refined skill, eye for intricate detail and perseverance while compiling complex elements into harmonious compositions. For this reason, ornaments have played an important role in the advancement of craftsmanship. Even though it has been claimed that people in the western design world have lost the relationship to ornament, the relation to it has merely changed from the practice of a craftsman to conceptualisation of a designer. With the help of new technological tools the production of ornaments has become faster and more efficient, demanding less manual labour. Designers who commit to this style of organic forms and vegetative motifs embrace and respect nature by representing its organically growing forms and by following its principles. The complexity of the designs is used as a way to evoke a sense of extraordinary beauty and stimulate intellect by freeing the mind from the predetermined interpretations. Through the study of these purposes it can be demonstrated that complex and richer design styles are as valuable a part of the world of design as more modern design approaches. The study highlights the meaning of ornaments by presenting visual examples and literature research findings. The practice based part of the project is the visual analysis of historical and cultural ornamental traditions such as Indian Chikan embroidery, Persian carpets, Art Nouveau and Rococo according to the rubric created for the purpose. The next step is the creation of ornamental designs based on the key elements in different styles. Theoretical and practical parts are woven together in this study that respects respect the long traditions of ornaments and highlight the importance of these design approaches to the field, in contrast to the more commonly preferred styles.Keywords: cultural design traditions, ornamental design, organic forms from nature, textile design
Procedia PDF Downloads 226401 Metacognitive Processing in Early Readers: The Role of Metacognition in Monitoring Linguistic and Non-Linguistic Performance and Regulating Students' Learning
Authors: Ioanna Taouki, Marie Lallier, David Soto
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Metacognition refers to the capacity to reflect upon our own cognitive processes. Although there is an ongoing discussion in the literature on the role of metacognition in learning and academic achievement, little is known about its neurodevelopmental trajectories in early childhood, when children begin to receive formal education in reading. Here, we evaluate the metacognitive ability, estimated under a recently developed Signal Detection Theory model, of a cohort of children aged between 6 and 7 (N=60), who performed three two-alternative-forced-choice tasks (two linguistic: lexical decision task, visual attention span task, and one non-linguistic: emotion recognition task) including trial-by-trial confidence judgements. Our study has three aims. First, we investigated how metacognitive ability (i.e., how confidence ratings track accuracy in the task) relates to performance in general standardized tasks related to students' reading and general cognitive abilities using Spearman's and Bayesian correlation analysis. Second, we assessed whether or not young children recruit common mechanisms supporting metacognition across the different task domains or whether there is evidence for domain-specific metacognition at this early stage of development. This was done by examining correlations in metacognitive measures across different task domains and evaluating cross-task covariance by applying a hierarchical Bayesian model. Third, using robust linear regression and Bayesian regression models, we assessed whether metacognitive ability in this early stage is related to the longitudinal learning of children in a linguistic and a non-linguistic task. Notably, we did not observe any association between students’ reading skills and metacognitive processing in this early stage of reading acquisition. Some evidence consistent with domain-general metacognition was found, with significant positive correlations between metacognitive efficiency between lexical and emotion recognition tasks and substantial covariance indicated by the Bayesian model. However, no reliable correlations were found between metacognitive performance in the visual attention span and the remaining tasks. Remarkably, metacognitive ability significantly predicted children's learning in linguistic and non-linguistic domains a year later. These results suggest that metacognitive skill may be dissociated to some extent from general (i.e., language and attention) abilities and further stress the importance of creating educational programs that foster students’ metacognitive ability as a tool for long term learning. More research is crucial to understand whether these programs can enhance metacognitive ability as a transferable skill across distinct domains or whether unique domains should be targeted separately.Keywords: confidence ratings, development, metacognitive efficiency, reading acquisition
Procedia PDF Downloads 150400 Analyzing the Participation of Young People in Politics: An Exploratory Study Applied on Motivation in Croatia
Authors: Valentina Piric, Maja Martinovic, Zoran Barac
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The application of marketing to the domain of politics has become relevant in recent times. With this article the authors wanted to explore the issue of the current political engagement among young people in Croatia. The question is what makes young people (age 18-30) politically active in young democracies such as that of the Republic of Croatia. Therefore, the objective of this study was to discover the real or hidden motivations behind the decision to actively participate in politics among young members of the two largest political parties in the country – the Croatian Democratic Union and the Social Democratic Party of Croatia. The study expected to find that the motivation for political engagement of young people is often connected with a possible achievement of individual goals and egoistic needs such as: self-acceptance, social success, financial success, prestige, reputation, status, recognition from the others etc. It was also expected that, due to the poor economic and social situation in the country, young people feel an increasing disconnection from politics. Additionally, the authors expected to find that there is a huge potential to engage young people in the political life of the country through a proper and more interactive use of marketing communication campaigns and social media platforms, with an emphasis on highly ethical motives of political activity and their benefits to society. All respondents included in the quantitative survey (sample size [N=100]) are active in one of the two largest political parties in Croatia. The sampling and distribution of the survey occurred in the field in September 2016. The results of the survey demonstrate that in Croatia, the way young people feel about politics and act accordingly, are in fact similar to what the theory describes. The research findings reveal that young people are politically active; however, the challenge is to find a way to motivate even more young people in Croatia to actively participate in the political and democratic processes in the country and to encourage them to see additional benefits out of this practice, not only related to their individual motives, but related more to the well-being of Croatia as a country and of every member of society. The research also discovered a huge potential for political marketing communication possibilities, especially related to interactive social media. It is possible that the social media channels have a stronger influence on the decision-making process among young people when compared to groups of reference. The level of interest in politics among young Croatians varies; some of them are almost indifferent, whilst others express a serious interest in different ways to actively contribute to the political life of the country, defining a participation in the political life of their country almost as their moral obligation. However, additional observations and further research need to be conducted to get a clearer and more precise picture about the interest in politics among young people in Croatia and their social potential.Keywords: Croatia, marketing communication, motivation, politics, young people
Procedia PDF Downloads 332399 Attention and Memory in the Music Learning Process in Individuals with Visual Impairments
Authors: Lana Burmistrova
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Introduction: The influence of visual impairments on several cognitive processes used in the music learning process is an increasingly important area in special education and cognitive musicology. Many children have several visual impairments due to the refractive errors and irreversible inhibitors. However, based on the compensatory neuroplasticity and functional reorganization, congenitally blind (CB) and early blind (EB) individuals use several areas of the occipital lobe to perceive and process auditory and tactile information. CB individuals have greater memory capacity, memory reliability, and less false memory mechanisms are used while executing several tasks, they have better working memory (WM) and short-term memory (STM). Blind individuals use several strategies while executing tactile and working memory n-back tasks: verbalization strategy (mental recall), tactile strategy (tactile recall) and combined strategies. Methods and design: The aim of the pilot study was to substantiate similar tendencies while executing attention, memory and combined auditory tasks in blind and sighted individuals constructed for this study, and to investigate attention, memory and combined mechanisms used in the music learning process. For this study eight (n=8) blind and eight (n=8) sighted individuals aged 13-20 were chosen. All respondents had more than five years music performance and music learning experience. In the attention task, all respondents had to identify pitch changes in tonal and randomized melodic pairs. The memory task was based on the mismatch negativity (MMN) proportion theory: 80 percent standard (not changed) and 20 percent deviant (changed) stimuli (sequences). Every sequence was named (na-na, ra-ra, za-za) and several items (pencil, spoon, tealight) were assigned for each sequence. Respondents had to recall the sequences, to associate them with the item and to detect possible changes. While executing the combined task, all respondents had to focus attention on the pitch changes and had to detect and describe these during the recall. Results and conclusion: The results support specific features in CB and EB, and similarities between late blind (LB) and sighted individuals. While executing attention and memory tasks, it was possible to observe the tendency in CB and EB by using more precise execution tactics and usage of more advanced periodic memory, while focusing on auditory and tactile stimuli. While executing memory and combined tasks, CB and EB individuals used passive working memory to recall standard sequences, active working memory to recall deviant sequences and combined strategies. Based on the observation results, assessment of blind respondents and recording specifics, following attention and memory correlations were identified: reflective attention and STM, reflective attention and periodic memory, auditory attention and WM, tactile attention and WM, auditory tactile attention and STM. The results and the summary of findings highlight the attention and memory features used in the music learning process in the context of blindness, and the tendency of the several attention and memory types correlated based on the task, strategy and individual features.Keywords: attention, blindness, memory, music learning, strategy
Procedia PDF Downloads 184398 Microsimulation of Potential Crashes as a Road Safety Indicator
Authors: Vittorio Astarita, Giuseppe Guido, Vincenzo Pasquale Giofre, Alessandro Vitale
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Traffic microsimulation has been used extensively to evaluate consequences of different traffic planning and control policies in terms of travel time delays, queues, pollutant emissions, and every other common measured performance while at the same time traffic safety has not been considered in common traffic microsimulation packages as a measure of performance for different traffic scenarios. Vehicle conflict techniques that were introduced at intersections in the early traffic researches carried out at the General Motor laboratory in the USA and in the Swedish traffic conflict manual have been applied to vehicles trajectories simulated in microscopic traffic simulators. The concept is that microsimulation can be used as a base for calculating the number of conflicts that will define the safety level of a traffic scenario. This allows engineers to identify unsafe road traffic maneuvers and helps in finding the right countermeasures that can improve safety. Unfortunately, most commonly used indicators do not consider conflicts between single vehicles and roadside obstacles and barriers. A great number of vehicle crashes take place with roadside objects or obstacles. Only some recent proposed indicators have been trying to address this issue. This paper introduces a new procedure based on the simulation of potential crash events for the evaluation of safety levels in microsimulation traffic scenarios, which takes into account also potential crashes with roadside objects and barriers. The procedure can be used to define new conflict indicators. The proposed simulation procedure generates with the random perturbation of vehicle trajectories a set of potential crashes which can be evaluated accurately in terms of DeltaV, the energy of the impact, and/or expected number of injuries or casualties. The procedure can also be applied to real trajectories giving birth to new surrogate safety performance indicators, which can be considered as “simulation-based”. The methodology and a specific safety performance indicator are described and applied to a simulated test traffic scenario. Results indicate that the procedure is able to evaluate safety levels both at the intersection level and in the presence of roadside obstacles. The procedure produces results that are expressed in the same unity of measure for both vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to roadside object conflicts. The total energy for a square meter of all generated crash can be used and is shown on the map, for the test network, after the application of a threshold to evidence the most dangerous points. Without any detailed calibration of the microsimulation model and without any calibration of the parameters of the procedure (standard values have been used), it is possible to identify dangerous points. A preliminary sensitivity analysis has shown that results are not dependent on the different energy thresholds and different parameters of the procedure. This paper introduces a specific new procedure and the implementation in the form of a software package that is able to assess road safety, also considering potential conflicts with roadside objects. Some of the principles that are at the base of this specific model are discussed. The procedure can be applied on common microsimulation packages once vehicle trajectories and the positions of roadside barriers and obstacles are known. The procedure has many calibration parameters and research efforts will have to be devoted to make confrontations with real crash data in order to obtain the best parameters that have the potential of giving an accurate evaluation of the risk of any traffic scenario.Keywords: road safety, traffic, traffic safety, traffic simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 135397 Light, Restorativeness and Performance in the Workplace: A Pilot Study
Authors: D. Scarpanti, M. Brondino, M. Pasini
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Background: the present study explores the role of light and restorativeness on work. According with the Attention Restoration Theory (ART) and a Model of Work Environment, the main idea is that some features of environment, i.e., lighting, influences the direct attention, and so, the performance. Restorativeness refers to the presence/absence level of all the characteristics of physical environment that help to regenerate direct attention. Specifically, lighting can affect level of fascination and attention in one hand; and in other hand promotes several biological functions via pineal gland. Different reviews on this topic show controversial results. In order to bring light on this topic, the hypotheses of this study are that lighting can affect the construct of restorativeness and, in the second time, the restorativeness can affect the performance. Method: the participants are 30 workers of a mechatronic company in the North Italy. Every subject answered to a questionnaire valuing their subjective perceptions of environment in a different way: some objective features of environment, like lighting, temperature and air quality; some subjective perceptions of this environment; finally, the participants answered about their perceived performance. The main attention is on the features of light and his components: visual comfort, general preferences and pleasantness; and the dimensions of the construct of restorativeness; fascination, coherence and being away. The construct of performance per se is conceptualized in three level: individual, team membership and organizational membership; and in three different components: proficiency, adaptability, and proactivity, for a total of 9 subcomponents. Findings: path analysis showed that some characteristics of lighting respectively affected the dimension of fascination; and, as expected, the dimension of fascination affected work performance. Conclusions: The present study is a first pilot step of a wide research. These first results can be summarized with the statement that lighting and restorativeness contribute to explain work performance variability: in details perceptions of visual comfort, satisfaction and pleasantness, and fascination respectively. Results related to fascination are particularly interesting because fascination is conceptualized as the opposite of the construct of direct attention. The main idea is, in order to regenerate attentional capacity, it’s necessary to provide a lacking of attention (fascination). The sample size did not permit to test simultaneously the role of the perceived characteristics of light to see how they differently contribute to predict fascination of the work environment. However, the results highlighted the important role that light could have in predicting restorativeness dimensions and probably with a larger sample we could find larger effects also on work performance. Furthermore, longitudinal data will contribute to better analyze the causal model along time. Applicative implications: the present pilot study highlights the relevant role of lighting and perceived restorativeness in the work environment and the importance to focus attention on light features and the restorative characteristics in the design of work environments.Keywords: lighting, performance, restorativeness, workplace
Procedia PDF Downloads 154396 Multiphase Equilibrium Characterization Model For Hydrate-Containing Systems Based On Trust-Region Method Non-Iterative Solving Approach
Authors: Zhuoran Li, Guan Qin
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A robust and efficient compositional equilibrium characterization model for hydrate-containing systems is required, especially for time-critical simulations such as subsea pipeline flow assurance analysis, compositional simulation in hydrate reservoirs etc. A multiphase flash calculation framework, which combines Gibbs energy minimization function and cubic plus association (CPA) EoS, is developed to describe the highly non-ideal phase behavior of hydrate-containing systems. A non-iterative eigenvalue problem-solving approach for the trust-region sub-problem is selected to guarantee efficiency. The developed flash model is based on the state-of-the-art objective function proposed by Michelsen to minimize the Gibbs energy of the multiphase system. It is conceivable that a hydrate-containing system always contains polar components (such as water and hydrate inhibitors), introducing hydrogen bonds to influence phase behavior. Thus, the cubic plus associating (CPA) EoS is utilized to compute the thermodynamic parameters. The solid solution theory proposed by van der Waals and Platteeuw is applied to represent hydrate phase parameters. The trust-region method combined with the trust-region sub-problem non-iterative eigenvalue problem-solving approach is utilized to ensure fast convergence. The developed multiphase flash model's accuracy performance is validated by three available models (one published and two commercial models). Hundreds of published hydrate-containing system equilibrium experimental data are collected to act as the standard group for the accuracy test. The accuracy comparing results show that our model has superior performances over two models and comparable calculation accuracy to CSMGem. Efficiency performance test also has been carried out. Because the trust-region method can determine the optimization step's direction and size simultaneously, fast solution progress can be obtained. The comparison results show that less iteration number is needed to optimize the objective function by utilizing trust-region methods than applying line search methods. The non-iterative eigenvalue problem approach also performs faster computation speed than the conventional iterative solving algorithm for the trust-region sub-problem, further improving the calculation efficiency. A new thermodynamic framework of the multiphase flash model for the hydrate-containing system has been constructed in this work. Sensitive analysis and numerical experiments have been carried out to prove the accuracy and efficiency of this model. Furthermore, based on the current thermodynamic model in the oil and gas industry, implementing this model is simple.Keywords: equation of state, hydrates, multiphase equilibrium, trust-region method
Procedia PDF Downloads 172395 Improving Preconception Health and Lifestyle Behaviours through Digital Health Intervention: The OptimalMe Program
Authors: Bonnie R. Brammall, Rhonda M. Garad, Helena J. Teede, Cheryce L. Harrison
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Introduction: Reproductive aged women are at high-risk for accelerated weight gain and obesity development, with pregnancy recognised as a critical contributory life phase. Healthy lifestyle interventions during the preconception and antenatal period improve maternal and infant health outcomes. Yet, interventions from preconception through to postpartum and translation and implementation into real-world healthcare settings remain limited. OptimalMe is a randomised, hybrid implementation effectiveness study of evidence-based healthy lifestyle intervention. Here, we report engagement, acceptability of the intervention during preconception, and self-reported behaviour change outcomes as a result of the preconception phase of the intervention. Methods: Reproductive aged women who upgraded their private health insurance to include pregnancy and birth cover, signalling a pregnancy intention, were invited to participate. Women received access to an online portal with preconception health and lifestyle modules, goal-setting and behaviour change tools, monthly SMS messages, and two coaching sessions (randomised to video or phone) prior to pregnancy. Results: Overall n=527 expressed interest in participating. Of these, n=33 did not meet inclusion criteria, n=8 were not contactable for eligibility screening, and n=177 failed to engage after the screening, leaving n=309 who were enrolled in OptimalMe and randomised to intervention delivery method. Engagement with coaching sessions dropped by 25% for session two, with no difference between intervention groups. Women had a mean (SD) age of 31.7 (4.3) years and, at baseline, a self-reported mean BMI of 25.7 (6.1) kg/m², with 55.8% (n=172) of a healthy BMI. Behaviour was sub-optimal with infrequent self-weighing (38.1%), alcohol consumption prevalent (57.1%), sub-optimal pre-pregnancy supplementation (61.5%), and incomplete medical screening. Post-intervention 73.2% of women reported engagement with a GP for preconception care and improved lifestyle behaviour (85.5%), since starting OptimalMe. Direct pre-and-post comparison of individual participant data showed that of 322 points of potential change (up-to-date cervical screening, elimination of high-risk behaviours [alcohol, drugs, smoking], uptake of preconception supplements and improved weighing habits) 158 (49.1%) points of change were achieved. Health coaching sessions were found to improve accountability and confidence, yet further personalisation and support were desired. Engagement with video and phone sessions was comparable, having similar impacts on behaviour change, and both methods were well accepted and increased women's accountability. Conclusion: A low-intensity digital health and lifestyle program with embedded health coaching can improve the uptake of preconception care and lead to self-reported behaviour change. This is the first program of its kind to reach an otherwise healthy population of women planning a pregnancy. Women who were otherwise healthy showed divergence from preconception health and lifestyle objectives and benefited from the intervention. OptimalMe shows promising results for population-based behaviour change interventions that can improve preconception lifestyle habits and increase engagement with clinical health care for pregnancy preparation.Keywords: preconception, pregnancy, preventative health, weight gain prevention, self-management, behaviour change, digital health, telehealth, intervention, women's health
Procedia PDF Downloads 91394 International Collaboration: Developing the Practice of Social Work Curriculum through Study Abroad and Participatory Research
Authors: Megan Lindsey
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Background: Globalization presents international social work with both opportunities and challenges. Thus, the design of this international experience aligns with the three charges of the Commission on Global Social Work Education. An international collaborative effort between an American and Scottish University Social Work Program was based on an established University agreement. The presentation provides an overview of an international study abroad among American and Scottish Social Work students. Further, presenters will discuss the opportunities of international collaboration and the challenges of the project. First, we will discuss the process of a successful international collaboration. This discussion will include the planning, collaboration, execution of the experience, along with its application to the international field of social work. Second, we will discuss the development and implementation of participatory action research in which the student engage to enhance their learning experience. A collaborative qualitative research project was undertaken with three goals. First, students gained experience in Scottish social services, including agency visits and presentations. Second, a collaboration between American and Scottish MSW Students allowed the exchange of ideas and knowledge about services and social work education. Third, students collaborated on a qualitative research method to reflect on their social work education and the formation of their professional identity. Methods/Methodology: American and Scottish students engaged in participatory action research by using Photovoice methods while studying together in Scotland. The collaboration between faculty researchers framed a series of research questions. Both universities obtained IRB approval and trained students in Photovoice methods. The student teams used the research question and Photovoice method to discover images that represented their professional identity formation. Two Photovoice goals grounded the study's research question. First, the methods enabled the individual students to record and reflect on their professional strengths and concerns. Second, student teams promoted critical dialogue and knowledge about personal and professional issues through large and small group discussions of photographs. Results: The international participatory approach generated the ability for students to contextualize their common social work education and practice experiences. Team discussions between representatives of each country resulted in understanding professional identity formation and the processes of social work education that contribute to that identity. Students presented the photograph narration of their knowledge and understanding of international social work education and practice. Researchers then collaborated on finding common themes. The results found commonalities in the quality and depth of social work education. The themes found differences regarding how professional identity is formed. Students found great differences between their and American accreditation and certification. Conclusions: Faculty researchers’ collaboration themes sought to categorize the students’ experiences of their professional identity. While the social work education systems are similar, there are vast differences. The Scottish themes noted structures within American social work not found in the United Kingdom. The American researchers noted that Scotland, as does the United Kingdom, relies on programs, agencies, and the individual social worker to provide structure to identity formation. Other themes will be presented.Keywords: higher education curriculum, international collaboration, social sciences, action research
Procedia PDF Downloads 126393 The Temporal Implications of Spatial Prospects
Authors: Zhuo Job Chen, Kevin Nute
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The work reported examines potential linkages between spatial and temporal prospects, and more specifically, between variations in the spatial depth and foreground obstruction of window views, and observers’ sense of connection to the future. It was found that external views from indoor spaces were strongly associated with a sense of the future, that partially obstructing such a view with foreground objects significantly reduced its association with the future, and replacing it with a pictorial representation of the same scene (with no real actual depth) removed most of its temporal association. A lesser change in the spatial depth of the view, however, had no apparent effect on association with the future. While the role of spatial depth has still to be confirmed, the results suggest that spatial prospects directly affect temporal ones. The word “prospect” typifies the overlapping of the spatial and temporal in most human languages. It originated in classical times as a purely spatial term, but in the 16th century took on the additional temporal implication of an imagined view ahead, of the future. The psychological notion of prospection, then, has its distant origins in a spatial analogue. While it is not yet proven that space directly structures our processing of time at a physiological level, it is generally agreed that it commonly does so conceptually. The mental representation of possible futures has been a central part of human survival as a species (Boyer, 2008; Suddendorf & Corballis, 2007). A sense of the future seems critical not only practically, but also psychologically. It has been suggested, for example, that lack of a positive image of the future may be an important contributing cause of depression (Beck, 1974; Seligman, 2016). Most people in the developed world now spend more than 90% of their lives indoors. So any direct link between external views and temporal prospects could have important implications for both human well-being and building design. We found that the ability to see what lies in front of us spatially was strongly associated with a sense of what lies ahead temporally. Partial obstruction of a view was found to significantly reduce that sense connection to the future. Replacing a view with a flat pictorial representation of the same scene removed almost all of its connection with the future, but changing the spatial depth of a real view appeared to have no significant effect. While foreground obstructions were found to reduce subjects’ sense of connection to the future, they increased their sense of refuge and security. Consistent with Prospect and Refuge theory, an ideal environment, then, would seem to be one in which we can “see without being seen” (Lorenz, 1952), specifically one that conceals us frontally from others, without restricting our own view. It is suggested that these optimal conditions might be translated architecturally as screens, the apertures of which are large enough for a building occupant to see through unobstructed from close by, but small enough to conceal them from the view of someone looking from a distance outside.Keywords: foreground obstructions, prospection, spatial depth, window views
Procedia PDF Downloads 123392 Comparison between the Quadratic and the Cubic Linked Interpolation on the Mindlin Plate Four-Node Quadrilateral Finite Elements
Authors: Dragan Ribarić
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We employ the so-called problem-dependent linked interpolation concept to develop two cubic 4-node quadrilateral Mindlin plate finite elements with 12 external degrees of freedom. In the problem-independent linked interpolation, the interpolation functions are independent of any problem material parameters and the rotation fields are not expressed in terms of the nodal displacement parameters. On the contrary, in the problem-dependent linked interpolation, the interpolation functions depend on the material parameters and the rotation fields are expressed in terms of the nodal displacement parameters. Two cubic 4-node quadrilateral plate elements are presented, named Q4-U3 and Q4-U3R5. The first one is modelled with one displacement and two rotation degrees of freedom in every of the four element nodes and the second element has five additional internal degrees of freedom to get polynomial completeness of the cubic form and which can be statically condensed within the element. Both elements are able to pass the constant-bending patch test exactly as well as the non-zero constant-shear patch test on the oriented regular mesh geometry in the case of cylindrical bending. In any mesh shape, the elements have the correct rank and only the three eigenvalues, corresponding to the solid body motions are zero. There are no additional spurious zero modes responsible for instability of the finite element models. In comparison with the problem-independent cubic linked interpolation implemented in Q9-U3, the nine-node plate element, significantly less degrees of freedom are employed in the model while retaining the interpolation conformity between adjacent elements. The presented elements are also compared to the existing problem-independent quadratic linked-interpolation element Q4-U2 and to the other known elements that also use the quadratic or the cubic linked interpolation, by testing them on several benchmark examples. Simple functional upgrading from the quadratic to the cubic linked interpolation, implemented in Q4-U3 element, showed no significant improvement compared to the quadratic linked form of the Q4-U2 element. Only when the additional bubble terms are incorporated in the displacement and rotation function fields, which complete the full cubic linked interpolation form, qualitative improvement is fulfilled in the Q4-U3R5 element. Nevertheless, the locking problem exists even for the both presented elements, like in all pure displacement elements when applied to very thin plates modelled by coarse meshes. But good and even slightly better performance can be noticed for the Q4-U3R5 element when compared with elements from the literature, if the model meshes are moderately dense and the plate thickness not extremely thin. In some cases, it is comparable to or even better than Q9-U3 element which has as many as 12 more external degrees of freedom. A significant improvement can be noticed in particular when modeling very skew plates and models with singularities in the stress fields as well as circular plates with distorted meshes.Keywords: Mindlin plate theory, problem-independent linked interpolation, problem-dependent interpolation, quadrilateral displacement-based plate finite elements
Procedia PDF Downloads 312391 Perception of the End of a Same Sex Relationship and Preparation towards It: A Qualitative Research about Anticipation, Coping and Conflict Management against the Backdrop of Partial Legal Recognition
Authors: Merav Meiron-Goren, Orna Braun-Lewensohn, Tal Litvak-Hirsh
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In recent years, there has been an increasing tendency towards separation and divorce in relationships. Nevertheless, many couples in a first marriage do not anticipate this as a probable possibility and do not make any preparation for it. Same sex couples establishing a family encounter a much more complicated situation than do heterosexual couples. Although there is a trend towards legal recognition of same sex marriage, many countries, including Israel, do not recognize it. The absence of legal recognition or the existence of partial recognition creates complexity for these couples. They have to fight for their right to establish a family, like the recognition of the biological child of a woman, as a child of her woman spouse too, or the option of surrogacy for a male couple who want children, and more. The lack of legal recognition is burden on the lives of these couples. In the absence of clear norms regarding the conduct of the family unit, the couples must define for themselves the family structure, and deal with everyday dilemmas that lack institutional solutions. This may increase the friction between the two couple members, and it is one of the factors that make it difficult for them to maintain the relationship. This complexity exists, perhaps even more so, in separation. The end of relationship is often accompanied by a deep crisis, causing pain and stress. In most cases, there are also other conflicts that must be settled. These are more complicated when rights are in doubt or do not exist at all. Complex issues for separating same sex couples may include matters of property, recognition of parenthood, and care and support for the children. The significance of the study is based on the fact that same sex relationships are becoming more and more widespread, and are an integral part of the society. Even so, there is still an absence of research focusing on such relationships and their ending. The objective of the study is to research the perceptions of same sex couples regarding the possibility of separation, preparing for it, conflict management and resolving disputes through the separation process. It is also important to understand the point of view of couples that have gone through separation, how they coped with the emotional and practical difficulties involved in the separation process. The doctoral research will use a qualitative research method in a phenomenological approach, based on semi-structured in-depth interviews. The interviewees will be divided into three groups- at the beginning of a relationship, during the separation crisis and after separation, with a time perspective, with about 10 couples from each group. The main theoretical model serving as the basis of the study will be the Lazarus and Folkman theory of coping with stress. This model deals with the coping process, including cognitive appraisal of an experience as stressful, appraisal of the coping resources, and using strategies of coping. The strategies are divided into two main groups, emotion-focused forms of coping and problem-focused forms of coping.Keywords: conflict management, coping, legal recognition, same-sex relationship, separation
Procedia PDF Downloads 142390 Plotting of an Ideal Logic versus Resource Outflow Graph through Response Analysis on a Strategic Management Case Study Based Questionnaire
Authors: Vinay A. Sharma, Shiva Prasad H. C.
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The initial stages of any project are often observed to be in a mixed set of conditions. Setting up the project is a tough task, but taking the initial decisions is rather not complex, as some of the critical factors are yet to be introduced into the scenario. These simple initial decisions potentially shape the timeline and subsequent events that might later be plotted on it. Proceeding towards the solution for a problem is the primary objective in the initial stages. The optimization in the solutions can come later, and hence, the resources deployed towards attaining the solution are higher than what they would have been in the optimized versions. A ‘logic’ that counters the problem is essentially the core of the desired solution. Thus, if the problem is solved, the deployment of resources has led to the required logic being attained. As the project proceeds along, the individuals working on the project face fresh challenges as a team and are better accustomed to their surroundings. The developed, optimized solutions are then considered for implementation, as the individuals are now experienced, and know better of the consequences and causes of possible failure, and thus integrate the adequate tolerances wherever required. Furthermore, as the team graduates in terms of strength, acquires prodigious knowledge, and begins its efficient transfer, the individuals in charge of the project along with the managers focus more on the optimized solutions rather than the traditional ones to minimize the required resources. Hence, as time progresses, the authorities prioritize attainment of the required logic, at a lower amount of dedicated resources. For empirical analysis of the stated theory, leaders and key figures in organizations are surveyed for their ideas on appropriate logic required for tackling a problem. Key-pointers spotted in successfully implemented solutions are noted from the analysis of the responses and a metric for measuring logic is developed. A graph is plotted with the quantifiable logic on the Y-axis, and the dedicated resources for the solutions to various problems on the X-axis. The dedicated resources are plotted over time, and hence the X-axis is also a measure of time. In the initial stages of the project, the graph is rather linear, as the required logic will be attained, but the consumed resources are also high. With time, the authorities begin focusing on optimized solutions, since the logic attained through them is higher, but the resources deployed are comparatively lower. Hence, the difference between consecutive plotted ‘resources’ reduces and as a result, the slope of the graph gradually increases. On an overview, the graph takes a parabolic shape (beginning on the origin), as with each resource investment, ideally, the difference keeps on decreasing, and the logic attained through the solution keeps increasing. Even if the resource investment is higher, the managers and authorities, ideally make sure that the investment is being made on a proportionally high logic for a larger problem, that is, ideally the slope of the graph increases with the plotting of each point.Keywords: decision-making, leadership, logic, strategic management
Procedia PDF Downloads 108389 Analysis of the Interests, Conflicts and Power Resources in the Urban Development in the Megacity of Sao Paulo
Authors: A. G. Back
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Urban planning is a relevant tool to address, in a systemic way, several sectoral policies capable of linking the urban agenda with the reduction of socio-environmental risks. The Sao Paulo’s master plan (2014) presents innovations capable of promoting the transition to sustainability in the urban space, with a view to its regulatory instruments related to i) promotion of density in the axes of mass transport involving the mixture of commercial, residential, services, and leisure uses (principles related to the compact city); ii) vulnerabilities reduction based on housing policies including regular sources of funds for social housing and land reservation in urbanized areas; iii) reserve of green areas in the city to create parks and environmental regulations for new buildings focused on reducing the effects of heat island and improving urban drainage. However, its long-term implementation involves distributive conflicts and can undergo changes in different political, economic, and social contexts over time. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to identify and analyze the dynamics of conflicts of interest between social groups in the implementation of Sao Paulo’s urban development policy, particularly in relation to recent attempts at a (re) interpretation of the Master Plan guidelines, in view of the proposals for revision of the urban zoning law. In this sense, we seek to identify the demands, narratives of urban actors, including the real estate market, middle-class neighborhood associations ('not in my backyard' movements), and social housing rights movements. And we seek to analyze the power resources that these actors mobilize to influence the decision-making process, involving five categories: social capital, political access; discursive resource; media, juridical resource. The major findings of this research suggest that the interests and demands of the real estate market do not always prevail in urban regulation. After all, other actors also press for the definition of urban law with interests opposite to those of the real estate market. This is the case of associations of middle-class neighborhoods, which work to protect the characteristics of the locality, acting, in general, to prevent constructive and population densification in neighborhoods well located near the center, in São Paulo. One of the main demands of these “not in my backyard” movements is the delimitation of exclusively residential areas in the central region of the city, which is not only contrary to the interests of the real state market but also contrary to the principles of the compact city. On the other hand, social housing rights movements have also made progress in delimiting special areas of social interest in well-located and valued areas in the city dedicated to building social housing, also contrary to the interests of the real estate market. An urban development that follows the principles of the compact city must take into account the insertion of low-income populations in well-located regions; otherwise, such a development model may continue to push the less favored to the peripheries towards the preservation areas and/or risk areas.Keywords: interest groups, Sao Paulo, sustainable urban development, urban policies implementation
Procedia PDF Downloads 110388 The Conflict of Grammaticality and Meaningfulness of the Corrupt Words: A Cross-lingual Sociolinguistic Study
Authors: Jayashree Aanand, Gajjam
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The grammatical tradition in Sanskrit literature emphasizes the importance of the correct use of Sanskrit words or linguistic units (sādhu śabda) that brings the meritorious values, denying the attribution of the same religious merit to the incorrect use of Sanskrit words (asādhu śabda) or the vernacular or corrupt forms (apa-śabda or apabhraṁśa), even though they may help in communication. The current research, the culmination of the doctoral research on sentence definition, studies the difference among the comprehension of both correct and incorrect word forms in Sanskrit and Marathi languages in India. Based on the total of 19 experiments (both web-based and classroom-controlled) on approximately 900 Indian readers, it is found that while the incorrect forms in Sanskrit are comprehended with lesser accuracy than the correct word forms, no such difference can be seen for the Marathi language. It is interpreted that the incorrect word forms in the native language or in the language which is spoken daily (such as Marathi) will pose a lesser cognitive load as compared to the language that is not spoken on a daily basis but only used for reading (such as Sanskrit). The theoretical base for the research problem is as follows: among the three main schools of Language Science in ancient India, the Vaiyākaraṇas (Grammarians) hold that the corrupt word forms do have their own expressive power since they convey meaning, while as the Mimāṁsakas (the Exegesists) and the Naiyāyikas (the Logicians) believe that the corrupt forms can only convey the meaning indirectly, by recalling their association and similarity with the correct forms. The grammarians argue that the vernaculars that are born of the speaker’s inability to speak proper Sanskrit are regarded as degenerate versions or fallen forms of the ‘divine’ Sanskrit language and speakers who could not use proper Sanskrit or the standard language were considered as Śiṣṭa (‘elite’). The different ideas of different schools strictly adhere to their textual dispositions. For the last few years, sociolinguists have agreed that no variety of language is inherently better than any other; they are all the same as long as they serve the need of people that use them. Although the standard form of a language may offer the speakers some advantages, the non-standard variety is considered the most natural style of speaking. This is visible in the results. If the incorrect word forms incur the recall of the correct word forms in the reader as the theory suggests, it would have added one extra step in the process of sentential cognition leading to more cognitive load and less accuracy. This has not been the case for the Marathi language. Although speaking and listening to the vernaculars is the common practice and reading the vernacular is not, Marathi readers have readily and accurately comprehended the incorrect word forms in the sentences, as against the Sanskrit readers. The primary reason being Sanskrit is spoken and also read in the standard form only and the vernacular forms in Sanskrit are not found in the conversational data.Keywords: experimental sociolinguistics, grammaticality and meaningfulness, Marathi, Sanskrit
Procedia PDF Downloads 126387 Bridging Educational Research and Policymaking: The Development of Educational Think Tank in China
Authors: Yumei Han, Ling Li, Naiqing Song, Xiaoping Yang, Yuping Han
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Educational think tank is agreeably regarded as significant part of a nation’s soft power to promote the scientific and democratic level of educational policy making, and it plays critical role of bridging educational research in higher institutions and educational policy making. This study explores the concept, functions and significance of educational think tank in China, and conceptualizes a three dimensional framework to analyze the approaches of transforming research-based higher institutions into effective educational think tanks to serve educational policy making in the nation wide. Since 2014, the Ministry of Education P.R. China has been promoting the strategy of developing new type of educational think tanks in higher institutions, and such a strategy has been put into the agenda for the 13th Five Year Plan for National Education Development released in 2017.In such context, increasing scholars conduct studies to put forth strategies of promoting the development and transformation of new educational think tanks to serve educational policy making process. Based on literature synthesis, policy text analysis, and analysis of theories about policy making process and relationship between educational research and policy-making, this study constructed a three dimensional conceptual framework to address the following questions: (a) what are the new features of educational think tanks in the new era comparing traditional think tanks, (b) what are the functional objectives of the new educational think tanks, (c) what are the organizational patterns and mechanism of the new educational think tanks, (d) in what approaches traditional research-based higher institutions can be developed or transformed into think tanks to effectively serve the educational policy making process. The authors adopted case study approach on five influential education policy study centers affiliated with top higher institutions in China and applied the three dimensional conceptual framework to analyze their functional objectives, organizational patterns as well as their academic pathways that researchers use to contribute to the development of think tanks to serve education policy making process.Data was mainly collected through interviews with center administrators, leading researchers and academic leaders in the institutions. Findings show that: (a) higher institution based think tanks mainly function for multi-level objectives, providing evidence, theoretical foundations, strategies, or evaluation feedbacks for critical problem solving or policy-making on the national, provincial, and city/county level; (b) higher institution based think tanks organize various types of research programs for different time spans to serve different phases of policy planning, decision making, and policy implementation; (c) in order to transform research-based higher institutions into educational think tanks, the institutions must promote paradigm shift that promotes issue-oriented field studies, large data mining and analysis, empirical studies, and trans-disciplinary research collaborations; and (d) the five cases showed distinguished features in their way of constructing think tanks, and yet they also exposed obstacles and challenges such as independency of the think tanks, the discourse shift from academic papers to consultancy report for policy makers, weakness in empirical research methods, lack of experience in trans-disciplinary collaboration. The authors finally put forth implications for think tank construction in China and abroad.Keywords: education policy-making, educational research, educational think tank, higher institution
Procedia PDF Downloads 158386 Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain Method for Corn and Soybean Price Forecasting in North Carolina Markets
Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme
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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov
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