Search results for: crop model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 17806

Search results for: crop model

17086 Analysis of Reliability of Mining Shovel Using Weibull Model

Authors: Anurag Savarnya

Abstract:

The reliability of the various parts of electric mining shovel has been assessed through the application of Weibull Model. The study was initiated to find reliability of components of electric mining shovel. The paper aims to optimize the reliability of components and increase the life cycle of component. A multilevel decomposition of the electric mining shovel was done and maintenance records were used to evaluate the failure data and appropriate system characterization was done to model the system in terms of reasonable number of components. The approach used develops a mathematical model to assess the reliability of the electric mining shovel components. The model can be used to predict reliability of components of the hydraulic mining shovel and system performance. Reliability is an inherent attribute to a system. When the life-cycle costs of a system are being analyzed, reliability plays an important role as a major driver of these costs and has considerable influence on system performance. It is an iterative process that begins with specification of reliability goals consistent with cost and performance objectives. The data were collected from an Indian open cast coal mine and the reliability of various components of the electric mining shovel has been assessed by following a Weibull Model.

Keywords: reliability, Weibull model, electric mining shovel

Procedia PDF Downloads 515
17085 R Software for Parameter Estimation of Spatio-Temporal Model

Authors: Budi Nurani Ruchjana, Atje Setiawan Abdullah, I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, Eddy Hermawan

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose the application package to estimate parameters of spatiotemporal model based on the multivariate time series analysis using the R open-source software. We build packages mainly to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model. GSTAR is a combination of time series and spatial models that have parameters vary per location. We use the method of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and use the Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) to fit the model to spatiotemporal real phenomenon. For case study, we use oil production data from volcanic layer at Jatibarang Indonesia or climate data such as rainfall in Indonesia. Software R is very user-friendly and it is making calculation easier, processing the data is accurate and faster. Limitations R script for the estimation of model parameters spatiotemporal GSTAR built is still limited to a stationary time series model. Therefore, the R program under windows can be developed either for theoretical studies and application.

Keywords: GSTAR Model, MAPE, OLS method, oil production, R software

Procedia PDF Downloads 243
17084 Forecasting Models for Steel Demand Uncertainty Using Bayesian Methods

Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

Abstract:

A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

Procedia PDF Downloads 350
17083 Developing Fuzzy Logic Model for Reliability Estimation: Case Study

Authors: Soroor K. H. Al-Khafaji, Manal Mohammad Abed

Abstract:

The research aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of a complex engineering system and to design a fuzzy model for the reliability estimation. The designed model has been applied on Vegetable Oil Purification System (neutralization system) to help the specialist user based on the concept of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) to estimate the reliability of the repairable system at the vegetable oil industry. The fuzzy model has been used to predict the system reliability for a future time period, depending on a historical database for the two past years. The model can help to specify the system malfunctions and to predict its reliability during a future period in more accurate and reasonable results compared with the results obtained by the traditional method of reliability estimation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, reliability, repairable systems, FMEA

Procedia PDF Downloads 616
17082 Developing a Systems Dynamics Model for Security Management

Authors: Kuan-Chou Chen

Abstract:

This paper will demonstrate a simulation model of an information security system by using the systems dynamic approach. The relationships in the system model are designed to be simple and functional and do not necessarily represent any particular information security environments. The purpose of the paper aims to develop a generic system dynamic information security system model with implications on information security research. The interrelated and interdependent relationships of five primary sectors in the system dynamic model will be presented in this paper. The integrated information security systems model will include (1) information security characteristics, (2) users, (3) technology, (4) business functions, and (5) policy and management. Environments, attacks, government and social culture will be defined as the external sector. The interactions within each of these sectors will be depicted by system loop map as well. The proposed system dynamic model will not only provide a conceptual framework for information security analysts and designers but also allow information security managers to remove the incongruity between the management of risk incidents and the management of knowledge and further support information security managers and decision makers the foundation for managerial actions and policy decisions.

Keywords: system thinking, information security systems, security management, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 431
17081 Location Quotients Model in Turkey’s Provinces and Nuts II Regions

Authors: Semih Sözer

Abstract:

One of the most common issues in economic systems is understanding characteristics of economic activities in cities and regions. Although there are critics to economic base models in conceptual and empirical aspects, these models are useful tools to examining the economic structure of a nation, regions or cities. This paper uses one of the methodologies of economic base models namely the location quotients model. Data for this model includes employment numbers of provinces and NUTS II regions in Turkey. Time series of data covers the years of 1990, 2000, 2003, and 2009. Aim of this study is finding which sectors are export-base and which sectors are import-base in provinces and regions. Model results show that big provinces or powerful regions (population, size etc.) mostly have basic sectors in their economic system. However, interesting facts came from different sectors in different provinces and regions in the model results.

Keywords: economic base, location quotients model, regional economics, regional development

Procedia PDF Downloads 426
17080 Media Richness Perspective on Web 2.0 Usage for Knowledge Creation: The Case of the Cocoa Industry in Ghana

Authors: Albert Gyamfi

Abstract:

Cocoa plays critical role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. Meanwhile, smallholder farmers most of whom are illiterate dominate the industry. According to the cocoa-based agricultural knowledge and information system (AKIS) model knowledge is created and transferred to the industry between three key actors: cocoa researchers, extension experts, and cocoa farmers. Dwelling on the SECI model, the media richness theory (MRT), and the AKIS model, a conceptual model of web 2.0-based AKIS model (AKIS 2.0) is developed and used to assess the possible effects of social media usage for knowledge creation in the Ghanaian cocoa industry. A mixed method approach with a survey questionnaire was employed, and a second-order multi-group structural equation model (SEM) was used to analyze the data. The study concludes that the use of web 2.0 applications for knowledge creation would lead to sustainable interactions among the key knowledge actors for effective knowledge creation in the cocoa industry in Ghana.

Keywords: agriculture, cocoa, knowledge, media, web 2.0

Procedia PDF Downloads 335
17079 Artificial Neural Network Based Approach for Estimation of Individual Vehicle Speed under Mixed Traffic Condition

Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

Abstract:

Developing speed model is a challenging task particularly under mixed traffic condition where the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining vehicular speed. The present research has been conducted to model individual vehicular speed in the context of mixed traffic on an urban arterial. Traffic speed and volume data have been collected from three midblock arterial road sections in New Delhi. Using the field data, a volume based speed prediction model has been developed adopting the methodology of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model developed in this work is capable of estimating speed for individual vehicle category. Validation results show a great deal of agreement between the observed speeds and the predicted values by the model developed. Also, it has been observed that the ANN based model performs better compared to other existing models in terms of accuracy. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has been performed utilizing the model in order to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on individual speeds.

Keywords: speed model, artificial neural network, arterial, mixed traffic

Procedia PDF Downloads 389
17078 Development of DNDC Modelling Method for Evaluation of Carbon Dioxide Emission from Arable Soils in European Russia

Authors: Olga Sukhoveeva

Abstract:

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main component of carbon biogeochemical cycle and one of the most important greenhouse gases (GHG). Agriculture, particularly arable soils, are one the largest sources of GHG emission for the atmosphere including CO2.Models may be used for estimation of GHG emission from agriculture if they can be adapted for different countries conditions. The only model used in officially at national level in United Kingdom and China for this purpose is DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition). In our research, the model DNDC is offered for estimation of GHG emission from arable soils in Russia. The aim of our research was to create the method of DNDC using for evaluation of CO2 emission in Russia based on official statistical information. The target territory was European part of Russia where many field experiments are located. At the first step of research the database on climate, soil and cropping characteristics for the target region from governmental, statistical, and literature sources were created. All-Russia Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre provides open daily data about average meteorological and climatic conditions. It must be calculated spatial average values of maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation over the region. Spatial average values of soil characteristics (soil texture, bulk density, pH, soil organic carbon content) can be determined on the base of Union state register of soil recourses of Russia. Cropping technologies are published by agricultural research institutes and departments. We offer to define cropping system parameters (annual information about crop yields, amount and types of fertilizers and manure) on the base of the Federal State Statistics Service data. Content of carbon in plant biomass may be calculated via formulas developed and published by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation. At the second step CO2 emission from soil in this region were calculated by DNDC. Modelling data were compared with empirical and literature data and good results were obtained, modelled values were equivalent to the measured ones. It was revealed that the DNDC model may be used to evaluate and forecast the CO2 emission from arable soils in Russia based on the official statistical information. Also, it can be used for creation of the program for decreasing GHG emission from arable soils to the atmosphere. Financial Support: fundamental scientific researching theme 0148-2014-0005 No 01201352499 ‘Solution of fundamental problems of analysis and forecast of Earth climatic system condition’ for 2014-2020; fundamental research program of Presidium of RAS No 51 ‘Climate change: causes, risks, consequences, problems of adaptation and regulation’ for 2018-2020.

Keywords: arable soils, carbon dioxide emission, DNDC model, European Russia

Procedia PDF Downloads 192
17077 Morphological and Molecular Characterization of Accessions of Black Fonio Millet (Digitaria Iburua Stapf) Grown in Selected Regions in Nigeria

Authors: Nwogiji Cletus Olando, Oselebe Happiness Ogba, Enoch Achigan-Dako

Abstract:

Digitaria iburua, commonly known as black fonio, is a cereal crop native to Africa and extensively cultivated by smallholder farmers in Northern Benin, Togo, and Nigeria. This crop holds immense nutritional and socio-cultural value. Unfortunately, limited knowledge about its genetic diversity exists due to a lack of scientific attention. As a result, its potential for improvement in food and agriculture remains largely untapped. To address this gap, a study was conducted using 41 accessions of D. iburua stored in the genebank of the Laboratory of Genetics, Biotechnology, and Seed Science at Abomey-Calavi University, Benin. The study employed both morphological and simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers to evaluate the genetic variability of the accessions. Agro-morphological assessments were carried out during the 2020 cropping season, utilizing an alpha lattice design with three replications. The collected data encompassed qualitative and quantitative traits. Additionally, molecular variability was assessed using eleven SSR markers. The results revealed significant phenotypic variability among the evaluated accessions, leading to their classification into three main clusters. Furthermore, the eleven SSR markers identified a total of 50 alleles, averaging 4.55 alleles per locus. The primers exhibited an average polymorphic information content value of 0.43, with the DE-ARC019 primer displaying the highest value (0.59). These findings suggest a substantial degree of genetic heterogeneity within the evaluated accessions, and the SSR markers employed in the study proved highly effective in detecting and characterizing this genetic variability. In conclusion, this study highlights the presence of significant genetic diversity in black fonio and provides valuable insights for future efforts aimed at its genetic improvement and conservation.

Keywords: genetic diversity, digitaria iburua, genetic improvement, simple sequence repeat markers, Nigeria, conservation

Procedia PDF Downloads 89
17076 Modeling Heat-Related Mortality Based on Greenhouse Emissions in OECD Countries

Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

Abstract:

Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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17075 Design Channel Non Persistent CSMA MAC Protocol Model for Complex Wireless Systems Based on SoC

Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa

Abstract:

This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication model based on SoC design methodology. Such model can be used to support the modelling of the complex wireless communication systems, therefore use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).

Keywords: systemC, modelling, simulation, CSMA

Procedia PDF Downloads 428
17074 Fully Autonomous Vertical Farm to Increase Crop Production

Authors: Simone Cinquemani, Lorenzo Mantovani, Aleksander Dabek

Abstract:

New technologies in agriculture are opening new challenges and new opportunities. Among these, certainly, robotics, vision, and artificial intelligence are the ones that will make a significant leap, compared to traditional agricultural techniques, possible. In particular, the indoor farming sector will be the one that will benefit the most from these solutions. Vertical farming is a new field of research where mechanical engineering can bring knowledge and know-how to transform a highly labor-based business into a fully autonomous system. The aim of the research is to develop a multi-purpose, modular, and perfectly integrated platform for crop production in indoor vertical farming. Activities will be based both on hardware development such as automatic tools to perform different activities on soil and plants, as well as research to introduce an extensive use of monitoring techniques based on machine learning algorithms. This paper presents the preliminary results of a research project of a vertical farm living lab designed to (i) develop and test vertical farming cultivation practices, (ii) introduce a very high degree of mechanization and automation that makes all processes replicable, fully measurable, standardized and automated, (iii) develop a coordinated control and management environment for autonomous multiplatform or tele-operated robots in environments with the aim of carrying out complex tasks in the presence of environmental and cultivation constraints, (iv) integrate AI-based algorithms as decision support system to improve quality production. The coordinated management of multiplatform systems still presents innumerable challenges that require a strongly multidisciplinary approach right from the design, development, and implementation phases. The methodology is based on (i) the development of models capable of describing the dynamics of the various platforms and their interactions, (ii) the integrated design of mechatronic systems able to respond to the needs of the context and to exploit the strength characteristics highlighted by the models, (iii) implementation and experimental tests performed to test the real effectiveness of the systems created, evaluate any weaknesses so as to proceed with a targeted development. To these aims, a fully automated laboratory for growing plants in vertical farming has been developed and tested. The living lab makes extensive use of sensors to determine the overall state of the structure, crops, and systems used. The possibility of having specific measurements for each element involved in the cultivation process makes it possible to evaluate the effects of each variable of interest and allows for the creation of a robust model of the system as a whole. The automation of the laboratory is completed with the use of robots to carry out all the necessary operations, from sowing to handling to harvesting. These systems work synergistically thanks to the knowledge of detailed models developed based on the information collected, which allows for deepening the knowledge of these types of crops and guarantees the possibility of tracing every action performed on each single plant. To this end, artificial intelligence algorithms have been developed to allow synergistic operation of all systems.

Keywords: automation, vertical farming, robot, artificial intelligence, vision, control

Procedia PDF Downloads 45
17073 A Deep Learning Based Integrated Model For Spatial Flood Prediction

Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

Abstract:

The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

Procedia PDF Downloads 149
17072 Model of Transhipment and Routing Applied to the Cargo Sector in Small and Medium Enterprises of Bogotá, Colombia

Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca

Abstract:

This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.

Keywords: transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation

Procedia PDF Downloads 233
17071 A Model for Predicting Organic Compounds Concentration Change in Water Associated with Horizontal Hydraulic Fracturing

Authors: Ma Lanting, S. Eguilior, A. Hurtado, Juan F. Llamas Borrajo

Abstract:

Horizontal hydraulic fracturing is a technology to increase natural gas flow and improve productivity in the low permeability formation. During this drilling operation tons of flowback and produced water which contains many organic compounds return to the surface with a potential risk of influencing the surrounding environment and human health. A mathematical model is urgently needed to represent organic compounds in water transportation process behavior and the concentration change with time throughout the hydraulic fracturing operation life cycle. A comprehensive model combined Organic Matter Transport Dynamic Model with Two-Compartment First-order Model Constant (TFRC) Model has been established to quantify the organic compounds concentration. This algorithm model is composed of two transportation parts based on time factor. For the fast part, the curve fitting technique is applied using flowback water data from the Marcellus shale gas site fracturing and the coefficients of determination (R2) from all analyzed compounds demonstrate a high experimental feasibility of this numerical model. Furthermore, along a decade of drilling the concentration ratio curves have been estimated by the slow part of this model. The result shows that the larger value of Koc in chemicals, the later maximum concentration in water will reach, as well as all the maximum concentrations percentage would reach up to 90% of initial concentration from shale formation within a long sufficient period.

Keywords: model, shale gas, concentration, organic compounds

Procedia PDF Downloads 227
17070 Unified Structured Process for Health Analytics

Authors: Supunmali Ahangama, Danny Chiang Choon Poo

Abstract:

Health analytics (HA) is used in healthcare systems for effective decision-making, management, and planning of healthcare and related activities. However, user resistance, the unique position of medical data content, and structure (including heterogeneous and unstructured data) and impromptu HA projects have held up the progress in HA applications. Notably, the accuracy of outcomes depends on the skills and the domain knowledge of the data analyst working on the healthcare data. The success of HA depends on having a sound process model, effective project management and availability of supporting tools. Thus, to overcome these challenges through an effective process model, we propose an HA process model with features from the rational unified process (RUP) model and agile methodology.

Keywords: agile methodology, health analytics, unified process model, UML

Procedia PDF Downloads 507
17069 Cotton Transplantation as a Practice to Escape Infection with Some Soil-Borne Pathogens

Authors: E. M. H. Maggie, M. N. A. Nazmey, M. A. Abdel-Sattar, S. A. Saied

Abstract:

A successful trial of transplanting cotton is reported. Seeds grown in trays for 4-5 weeks in an easily prepared supporting medium such as peat moss or similar plant waste are tried. Careful transplanting of seedlings, with root system as intact as possible, is being made in the permanent field. The practice reduced damping-off incidence rate and allowed full winter crop revenues. Further work is needed to evaluate certain parameters such as growth curve, flowering curve, and yield at economic bases.

Keywords: cotton, transplanting cotton, damping-off diseases, environment sciences

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17068 The Potential Effect of Biochar Application on Microbial Activities and Availability of Mineral Nitrogen in Arable Soil Stressed by Drought

Authors: Helena Dvořáčková, Jakub Elbl, Irina Mikajlo, Antonín Kintl, Jaroslav Hynšt, Olga Urbánková, Jaroslav Záhora

Abstract:

Application of biochar to arable soils represents a new approach to restore soil health and quality. Many studies reported the positive effect of biochar application on soil fertility and development of soil microbial community. Moreover biochar may affect the soil water retention, but this effect has not been sufficiently described yet. Therefore this study deals with the influence of biochar application on: microbial activities in soil, availability of mineral nitrogen in soil for microorganisms, mineral nitrogen retention and plant production. To demonstrate the effect of biochar addition on the above parameters, the pot experiment was realized. As a model crop, Lactuca sativa L. was used and cultivated from December 10th 2014 till March 22th 2015 in climate chamber in thoroughly homogenized arable soil with and without addition of biochar. Five variants of experiment (V1–V5) with different regime of irrigation were prepared. Variants V1–V2 were fertilized by mineral nitrogen, V3–V4 by biochar and V5 was a control. The significant differences were found only in plant production and mineral nitrogen retention. The highest content of mineral nitrogen in soil was detected in V1 and V2, about 250 % in comparison with the other variants. The positive effect of biochar application on soil fertility, mineral nitrogen availability was not found. On the other hand results of plant production indicate the possible positive effect of biochar application on soil water retention.

Keywords: arable soil, biochar, drought, mineral nitrogen

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17067 Analysis of the Temperature Dependence of Local Avalanche Compact Model for Bipolar Transistors

Authors: Robert Setekera, Ramses van der Toorn

Abstract:

We present an extensive analysis of the temperature dependence of the local avalanche model used in most of the modern compact models for bipolar transistors. This local avalanche model uses the Chynoweth's empirical law for ionization coefficient to define the generation of the avalanche current in terms of the local electric field. We carry out the model analysis using DC-measurements taken on both Si and advanced SiGe bipolar transistors. For the advanced industrial SiGe-HBTs, we consider both high-speed and high-power devices (both NPN and PNP transistors). The limitations of the local avalanche model in modeling the temperature dependence of the avalanche current mostly in the weak avalanche region are demonstrated. In addition, the model avalanche parameters are analyzed to see if they are in agreement with semiconductor device physics.

Keywords: avalanche multiplication, avalanche current, bipolar transistors, compact modeling, electric field, impact ionization, local avalanche

Procedia PDF Downloads 623
17066 Development of Bicomponent Fibre to Combat Insects

Authors: M. Bischoff, F. Schmidt, J. Herrmann, J. Mattheß, G. Seide, T. Gries

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Crop yields have not increased as dramatically as the demand for food. One method to counteract this is to use pesticides to keep away predators, e.g. several forms of insecticide are available to fight insects. These insecticides and pesticides are both controversial as their application and their residue in the food product can also harm humans. In this study an alternative method to combat insects is studied. A physical insect-killing effect of SiO2 particles is used. The particles are applied on fibres to avoid erosion in the fields, which would occur when applied separately. The development of such SiO2 functionalized PP fibres is shown.

Keywords: agriculture, environment, insects, protection, silica, textile

Procedia PDF Downloads 300
17065 Special Case of Trip Distribution Model and Its Use for Estimation of Detailed Transport Demand in the Czech Republic

Authors: Jiri Dufek

Abstract:

The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)

Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities

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17064 Importance of Insect Crop Pests in the Diet of the Cattle Egret Bubulcus Ibis (Linnaeus, 1758)

Authors: Rachida Gherbi-Salmi, Abdelkarim Si Bachir, Salah Eddine Doumandji

Abstract:

The Cattle Egret is a predatory bird with an insectivorous diet. It feeds in open environments (wetlands, meadows, farmland and cultivated land). Few studies have determined the status of its prey (useful or harmful species for agriculture). Hence, our study was carried out in the Bejaia region (Algeria). It consisted of examining adult rejection pellets collected in a heronry located in the lower Soummam Valley (El-Kseur), which has been a permanent habitat for over 30 years. Field sampling was carried out during the juvenile rearing period in 1998 (wet spring) and 2020 (almost dry spring). Examination of 50 pellets at a rate of 10 per month (May - September) in 1998 revealed the presence of 2,661 prey belonging to 170 species, i.e., an average of 53.36 prey per pellet. The results reveal that the diet of this Ardeidae consists mainly of Insecta (95.09%). Arachnida was a distant second (4.05%). Vertebrates (Reptilia and Rodentia) (0.82%) and myriapods (0.04%) are rare prey. We counted 2,154 plant pests (80.27%), of which 2,138 were insects (99.27%) and 0.73% rodents (Mus spretus). Of the plant-pest insects identified, 1385 were Orthoptera (64.78%). Fourmicidae came second (13.05%), and Coleoptera third (12.82%). Dermaptera, on the other hand, accounted for only 7.86%. Analysis of 30 rejection pellets, 10 per month (May - July) in 2020, identified 1,330 prey belonging to 80 species, an average of 44.33 prey per pellet. The results reveal that its diet is essentially made up of Insecta (94.81%). These are followed by Vertebrata (3.01%) and Arachnida (2.18%). We counted 1156 plant pests (86.82%), of which 86.02% are Insecta. Orthoptera are the most frequent (45.72%). They are followed by Dermaptera (33.74%) and Coleoptera (18.44%). The present study highlighted the importance of plant pests consumed by the Cattle Egret (80.27% in 1998 and 86.82% in 2020), which are far more numerous and diverse than auxiliary prey and pollinators. This confirms the bird's status as a biological control agent in the lower Soummam valley. It is, therefore, worth pointing out that this species deserves to be protected.

Keywords: bubulcus ibis, diet, lower soummam valley, insect crop pests

Procedia PDF Downloads 54
17063 Forecasting Unemployment Rate in Selected European Countries Using Smoothing Methods

Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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17062 Simulation of Flow Patterns in Vertical Slot Fishway with Cylindrical Obstacles

Authors: Mohsen Solimani Babarsad, Payam Taheri

Abstract:

Numerical results of vertical slot fishways with and without cylinders study are presented. The simulated results and the measured data in the fishways are compared to validate the application of the model. This investigation is made using FLUENT V.6.3, a Computational Fluid Dynamics solver. Advantages of using these types of numerical tools are the possibility of avoiding the St.-Venant equations’ limitations, and turbulence can be modeled by means of different models such as the k-ε model. In general, the present study has demonstrated that the CFD model could be useful for analysis and design of vertical slot fishways with cylinders.

Keywords: slot Fish-way, CFD, k-ε model, St.-Venant equations’

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17061 Frequency Selective Filters for Estimating the Equivalent Circuit Parameters of Li-Ion Battery

Authors: Arpita Mondal, Aurobinda Routray, Sreeraj Puravankara, Rajashree Biswas

Abstract:

The most difficult part of designing a battery management system (BMS) is battery modeling. A good battery model can capture the dynamics which helps in energy management, by accurate model-based state estimation algorithms. So far the most suitable and fruitful model is the equivalent circuit model (ECM). However, in real-time applications, the model parameters are time-varying, changes with current, temperature, state of charge (SOC), and aging of the battery and this make a great impact on the performance of the model. Therefore, to increase the equivalent circuit model performance, the parameter estimation has been carried out in the frequency domain. The battery is a very complex system, which is associated with various chemical reactions and heat generation. Therefore, it’s very difficult to select the optimal model structure. As we know, if the model order is increased, the model accuracy will be improved automatically. However, the higher order model will face the tendency of over-parameterization and unfavorable prediction capability, while the model complexity will increase enormously. In the time domain, it becomes difficult to solve higher order differential equations as the model order increases. This problem can be resolved by frequency domain analysis, where the overall computational problems due to ill-conditioning reduce. In the frequency domain, several dominating frequencies can be found in the input as well as output data. The selective frequency domain estimation has been carried out, first by estimating the frequencies of the input and output by subspace decomposition, then by choosing the specific bands from the most dominating to the least, while carrying out the least-square, recursive least square and Kalman Filter based parameter estimation. In this paper, a second order battery model consisting of three resistors, two capacitors, and one SOC controlled voltage source has been chosen. For model identification and validation hybrid pulse power characterization (HPPC) tests have been carried out on a 2.6 Ah LiFePO₄ battery.

Keywords: equivalent circuit model, frequency estimation, parameter estimation, subspace decomposition

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17060 Designing Equivalent Model of Floating Gate Transistor

Authors: Birinderjit Singh Kalyan, Inderpreet Kaur, Balwinder Singh Sohi

Abstract:

In this paper, an equivalent model for floating gate transistor has been proposed. Using the floating gate voltage value, capacitive coupling coefficients has been found at different bias conditions. The amount of charge present on the gate has been then calculated using the transient models of hot electron programming and Fowler-Nordheim Tunnelling. The proposed model can be extended to the transient conditions as well. The SPICE equivalent model is designed and current-voltage characteristics and Transfer characteristics are comparatively analysed. The dc current-voltage characteristics, as well as dc transfer characteristics, have been plotted for an FGMOS with W/L=0.25μm/0.375μm, the inter-poly capacitance of 0.8fF for both programmed and erased states. The Comparative analysis has been made between the present model and capacitive coefficient coupling methods which were already available.

Keywords: FGMOS, floating gate transistor, capacitive coupling coefficient, SPICE model

Procedia PDF Downloads 545
17059 The Effects of Fungicide and Genetics on Fungal Diseases on Wheat in Nebraska With Emphasis on Stem Rust

Authors: Javed Sidiqi, Stephen Baezinger, Stephen Wegulo

Abstract:

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production continues to be challenged by foliar fungal diseases although significant improvement has been made to manage the diseases through developing resistant varieties and the fungicide use to ensure sufficient wheat is produced to meet the growing population’s need. Significant crop losses have been recorded in the history of grain production and yield losses due to fungal diseases, and the trend continues to threat food security in the world and particularly in the less developed countries. The impact of individual fungal diseases on grain yield has been studied extensively to determine crop losses. However, there is limited research available to find out the combined effects of fungal diseases on grain yield and the ways to effectively manage the diseases. Therefore, the objectives of this research were to study the effect of fungal pathogens on grain yield of pre-released winter wheat genotypes in fungicide treated and untreated plots, and to determine whether S7b gene was present in ‘Gage’ wheat as previously hypothesized. Sixty winter wheat genotypes in fungicide treated and untreated plots were studied across four environments. There was a significant effect of fungicide on grain yield consistently across four environments in three years. Fungicide treated wheat lines demonstrated (4,496 kg/ ha-1) grain yield compared to (3,147 kg/ ha-1) grain yield in untreated wheat lines indicating 43% increased grain yield due to severity of foliar fungal diseases. Furthermore, fungicide application also caused an increase in protein concentration from 153 (g kg-1) to 164 (g kg-1) in treated plots in along with test weight from 73 to 77 (kg hL-1) respectively. Gage wheat variety and ISr7b-Ra were crossed to determine presence of Sr7b in Gage. The F2 and F2:3 segregating families were screened and evaluated for stem rust resistance. The segregation of families fell within 15:1 ratio for two separate resistance genes suggesting that Sr7b segregates independently from an unknown resistance gene in Gage that needs to be characterized for its use in the future wheat breeding program to develop resistant wheat varieties.

Keywords: funicide, genetics, foliar diseases, grain

Procedia PDF Downloads 127
17058 Effects of Merging Personal and Social Responsibility with Sports Education Model on Students' Game Performance and Responsibility

Authors: Yi-Hsiang Pan, Chen-Hui Huang, Wei-Ting Hsu

Abstract:

The purposes of the study were to understand these topics as follows: 1. To explore the effect of merging teaching personal and social responsibility (TPSR) with sports education model on students' game performance and responsibility. 2. To explore the effect of sports education model on students' game performance and responsibility. 3. To compare the difference between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" on students' game performance and responsibility. The participants include three high school physical education teachers and six physical education classes. Every teacher teaches an experimental group and a control group. The participants had 121 students, including 65 students in the experimental group and 56 students in the control group. The research methods had game performance assessment, questionnaire investigation, interview, focus group meeting. The research instruments include personal and social responsibility questionnaire and game performance assessment instrument. Paired t-test test and MANCOVA were used to test the difference between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" on students' learning performance. 1) "Merging TPSR with sports education model" showed significant improvements in students' game performance, and responsibilities with self-direction, helping others, cooperation. 2) "Sports education model" also had significant improvements in students' game performance, and responsibilities with effort, self-direction, helping others. 3.) There was no significant difference in game performance and responsibilities between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model". 4)."Merging TPSR with sports education model" significantly improve learning atmosphere and peer relationships, it may be developed in the physical education curriculum. The conclusions were as follows: Both "Merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" can help improve students' responsibility and game performance. However, "Merging TPSR with sports education model" can reduce the competitive atmosphere in highly intensive games between students. The curricular projects of hybrid TPSR-Sport Education model is a good approach for moral character education.

Keywords: curriculum and teaching model, sports self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic, character education

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17057 New Estimation in Autoregressive Models with Exponential White Noise by Using Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm

Authors: Suparman Suparman

Abstract:

A white noise in autoregressive (AR) model is often assumed to be normally distributed. In application, the white noise usually do not follows a normal distribution. This paper aims to estimate a parameter of AR model that has a exponential white noise. A Bayesian method is adopted. A prior distribution of the parameter of AR model is selected and then this prior distribution is combined with a likelihood function of data to get a posterior distribution. Based on this posterior distribution, a Bayesian estimator for the parameter of AR model is estimated. Because the order of AR model is considered a parameter, this Bayesian estimator cannot be explicitly calculated. To resolve this problem, a method of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is adopted. A result is a estimation of the parameter AR model can be simultaneously calculated.

Keywords: autoregressive (AR) model, exponential white Noise, bayesian, reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

Procedia PDF Downloads 356