Search results for: Analytical methodology

Authors: Vincenzo Russo, Rosella Giacometti

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The paper aims to assess the insurance industry's resilience under Solvency II against adverse scenarios. Starting from the economic balance sheet available under Solvency II for insurance and reinsurance undertakings, we assume that assets and liabilities follow a bivariate geometric Brownian motion (GBM). Then, using the results available under Margrabe's formula, we establish an analytical solution to calibrate the volatility of the asset-liability ratio. In such a way, we can estimate the probability of default and the probability of breaching the undertaking's Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). Furthermore, since estimating the volatility of the Solvency Ratio became crucial for insurers in light of the financial crises featured in the last decades, we introduce a novel measure that we call Resiliency Ratio. The Resiliency Ratio can be used, in addition to the Solvency Ratio, to evaluate the insurance industry's resilience in case of adverse scenarios. Finally, we introduce a simplified stress test tool to evaluate the economic balance sheet under stressed conditions. The model we propose is featured by analytical tractability and fast calibration procedure where only the disclosed data available under the Solvency II public reporting are needed for the calibration. Using the data published regularly by the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) in an aggregated form by country, an empirical analysis has been performed to calibrate the model and provide the related results at the country level.

Keywords: Solvency II, solvency ratio, volatility of the asset-liability ratio, probability of default, probability to breach the SCR, resilience ratio, stress test

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Authors: Aishat Abdul-Qadir Zubair

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Background: The absence of Shari’ah screening methodology for companies in Nigeria has further engineered the uncertainty surrounding the acceptability of investing in certain companies by people professing the religion of Islam due to the nature of the activities carried out by these companies. There are some existing shariah screening indices in other jurisdictions whose criteria can be used to check if a company or business is shariah-compliant or not. Examples such as FTSE, DJIM, Standard and Poor to mention just a few. What these indices have tried to do is to ensure that there are benchmarks to check with before investing in companies that carry out mixed activities in their business, wherein some are halal and others may be haram. Purpose: There have been numerous studies on the need to adopt certain screening methodologies as well as call for new methods in screening companies for shariah compliance in order to suit the investments needs of Muslims in other jurisdictions. It is, however, unclear how suitable these methodologies will be to Nigeria. This paper, therefore, seeks to address this gap to consider an appropriate screening methodology to be employed in Nigeria, drawing from the experience of other jurisdictions. Methods: This study employs a triangulation of both quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze the need for Shari’ah screening of companies in Nigeria. The qualitative method is used by way of ijtihad, and this study tries to apply some Islamic Principles of Maqasid al-shari’ah as well as Qawaid al-Fiqiyyah to analyze activities of companies in order to ensure that they are indeed Shari’ah compliant. In addition, using the quantitative data gathered from the interview survey, the perspective of the investors with regards to the need for Shari’ah screening of companies in Nigeria is further analyzed. Results: The result of the study shows that there is a lack of awareness from the teeming Muslim population in Nigeria on the need for Shari’ah screening of companies in Nigeria. The result further shows that there is the need to take into cognizance the peculiar nature of company activities in Nigeria before any particular Shari’ah screening methodology is adopted and setting the necessary benchmarks. Conclusion and Implications: The study concludes that there is the need to ensure that the conscious Muslims in Nigeria screen companies for Shari’ah compliance so that they can easily identify the companies to invest in. The paper, therefore, recommends that the Nigerian government need to come up with a screening methodology that will suit the peculiar nature of companies in Nigeria. The study thus has a direct implication on the Investment regulatory bodies in Nigeria such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as well as the investor Muslims.

Keywords: Shari'ah screening, Muslims, investors, companies

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Authors: Riyadh Jamegh, AllaEldin Kassam, Sawsan Sabih

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In modern trends of market, organizations face high-pressure environment which is characterized by globalization, high competition, and customer orientation, so it is very crucial to control and know the weak and strong points of the supply chain in order to improve their performance. So the performance measurements presented as an important tool of supply chain management because it's enabled the organizations to control, understand, and improve their efficiency. This paper aims to identify supply chain performance measurement (SCPM) by using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process (FAHP). In our real application, the performance of organizations estimated based on four parameters these are cost parameter indicator of cost (CPI), inventory turnover parameter indicator of (INPI), raw material parameter (RMPI), and safety stock level parameter indicator (SSPI), these indicators vary in impact on performance depending upon policies and strategies of organization. In this research (FAHP) technique has been used to identify the importance of such parameters, and then first fuzzy inference (FIR1) is applied to identify performance indicator of each factor depending on the importance of the factor and its value. Then, the second fuzzy inference (FIR2) also applied to integrate the effect of these indicators and identify (SCPM) which represent the required output. The developed approach provides an effective tool for evaluation of supply chain performance measurement.

Keywords: fuzzy performance measurements, supply chain, fuzzy logic, key performance indicator

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Authors: Teh Raihana Nazirah Roslan, Siti Zulaiha Ibrahim, Sharmila Karim

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A warrant is a financial contract that confers the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a certain price before expiration. The standard procedure to value equity warrants using call option pricing models such as the Black–Scholes model had been proven to contain many flaws, such as the assumption of constant interest rate and constant volatility. In fact, existing alternative models were found focusing more on demonstrating techniques for pricing, rather than empirical testing. Therefore, a mathematical model for pricing and analyzing equity warrants which comprises stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility is essential to incorporate the dynamic relationships between the identified variables and illustrate the real market. Here, the aim is to develop dynamic pricing formulations for hybrid equity warrants by incorporating stochastic interest rates from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, along with stochastic volatility from the Heston model. The development of the model involves the derivations of stochastic differential equations that govern the model dynamics. The resulting equations which involve Cauchy problem and heat equations are then solved using partial differential equation approaches. The analytical pricing formulas obtained in this study comply with the form of analytical expressions embedded in the Black-Scholes model and other existing pricing models for equity warrants. This facilitates the practicality of this proposed formula for comparison purposes and further empirical study.

Keywords: Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, equity warrants, Heston model, hybrid models, stochastic

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Authors: Sarah Al-Lumai, Fatima Al-Attar, Nour Jamal, Badria Al-Dabbous, Manal Abdulla

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Today, many commonly used Industrial Engineering tools and techniques are being used in hospitals around the world for the goal of producing a more efficient and effective healthcare system. A common quality improvement methodology known as Lean Six-Sigma has been successful in manufacturing industries and recently in healthcare. The objective of our project is to use the Lean Six-Sigma methodology to reduce waiting time in the Emergency Department (ED), in a local private hospital. Furthermore, a comprehensive literature review was conducted to evaluate the success of Lean Six-Sigma in the ED. According to the study conducted by Ibn Sina Hospital, in Morocco, the most common problem that patients complain about is waiting time. To ensure patient satisfaction many hospitals such as North Shore University Hospital were able to reduce waiting time up to 37% by using Lean Six-Sigma. Other hospitals, such as John Hopkins’s medical center used Lean Six-Sigma successfully to enhance the overall patient flow that ultimately decreased waiting time. Furthermore, it was found that capacity constraints, such as staff shortages and lack of beds were one of the main reasons behind long waiting time. With the use of Lean Six-Sigma and bed management, hospitals like Memorial Hermann Southwest Hospital were able to reduce patient delays. Moreover, in order to successfully implement Lean Six-Sigma in our project, two common methodologies were considered, DMAIC and DMADV. After the assessment of both methodologies, it was found that DMAIC was a more suitable approach to our project because it is more concerned with improving an already existing process. With many of its successes, Lean Six-Sigma has its limitation especially in healthcare; but limitations can be minimized if properly approached.

Keywords: lean six sigma, DMAIC, hospital, methodology

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Authors: Koirala Abarodh, Maghaiya Ujjwal, Guragain Phani Raj

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This analysis focuses on defining the spectrum evaluation model for telecom operators in terms of total cost of ownership (TCO). A quantitative approach for specific case analysis research methodology was used for identifying the results. Specific input parameters like target User experience, year on year traffic growth, capacity site limit per year, target additional spectrum type, bandwidth, spectrum efficiency, UE penetration have been used for the spectrum evaluation process and desired outputs in terms of the number of sites, capex in USD and required spectrum bandwidth have been calculated. Furthermore, this study gives a comparison of capex investment for target growth with and without addition spectrum. As a result, the combination of additional spectrum bands of 700 and 2600 MHz has a better evaluation in terms of TCO and performance. It is our recommendation to use these bands for expansion rather than expansion in the current 1800 and 2100 bands.

Keywords: spectrum, capex planning, case study methodology, TCO

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Authors: Lucie Jirotková, Daniel Macek, Andrea Palazzo, Veronika Malinová

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Currently, the implementation of 3D models in the construction industry is gaining popularity. Countries around the world are developing their own modelling standards and implement the use of 3D models into their individual permitting processes. Another theme that needs to be addressed are public building spaces and their subsequent maintenance, where the usage of BIM methodology is directly offered. The significant benefit of the implementation of Building Information Management is the information transfer. The 3D model contains not only the spatial representation of the item shapes but also various parameters that are assigned to the individual elements, which are easily traceable, mainly because they are all stored in one place in the BIM model. However, it is important to keep the data in the models up to date to achieve useability of the model throughout the life cycle of the building. It is now becoming standard practice to use BIM models in the construction of buildings, however, the building environment is very often neglected. Especially in large-scale development projects, the public space of buildings is often forwarded to municipalities, which obtains the ownership and are in charge of its maintenance. A 3D model of the building surroundings would include both the above-ground visible elements of the development as well as the underground parts, such as the technological facilities of water features, electricity lines for public lighting, etc. The paper shows the possibilities of a model in the field of information for the handover of premises, the following maintenance and decision making. The attributes and spatial representation of the individual elements make the model a reliable foundation for the creation of "Smart Cities". The paper analyses the current use of the BIM methodology and presents the state-of-the-art possibilities of development.

Keywords: BIM model, urban space, BIM methodology, facility management

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Authors: Aigin Bashti

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Preparation of multicomponent reactions (MCRs) via a simple one-pot strategy is considered a novel procedure which has attracted a lot of interest from organic and medicinal chemists. Due to the great importance of phthalazide triones, it was decided to introduce a novel and cost-effective green procedure for the preparation of these derivatives. In this methodology, an efficient 4,4ʹ-Bipyridinium Dichloride Ordered Mesoporous Silica functionalized catalyst (BP-SBA-15) was utilized. The catalyst was characterized by X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD), field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), thermo-gravimetric analysis (TGA), and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) analysis. In conclusion, it should be mentioned that this methodology has some advantages, including short reaction time, high yield of the products, recyclable catalyst, green procedure, and facile work-up procedure. The catalyst was successfully utilized for the one-pot preparation of various phthalazinetrione derivatives.

Keywords: dimedone, green procedure, multicomponent reactions, phthalhydrazide

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Authors: Asawari Ajay Avhad

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The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological model designed to predict the complex interactions within natural and human-altered watersheds. This research applies the SWAT model to the Ulhas River basin, a small watershed undergoing urbanization and characterized by bowl-like topography. Three simulation scenarios (LC17, LC22, and LC27) are investigated, each representing different land use and land cover (LULC) configurations, to assess the impact of urbanization on runoff. The LULC for the year 2027 is generated using the MOLUSCE Plugin of QGIS, incorporating various spatial factors such as DEM, Distance from Road, Distance from River, Slope, and distance from settlements. Future climate data is simulated within the SWAT model using historical data spanning 30 years. A susceptibility map for runoff across the basin is created, classifying runoff into five susceptibility levels ranging from very low to very high. Sub-basins corresponding to major urban settlements are identified as highly susceptible to runoff. With consideration of future climate projections, a slight increase in runoff is forecasted. The reliability of the methodology was validated through the identification of sub-basins known for experiencing severe flood events, which were determined to be highly susceptible to runoff. The susceptibility map successfully pinpointed these sub-basins with a track record of extreme flood occurrences, thus reinforcing the credibility of the assessment methodology. This study suggests that the methodology employed could serve as a valuable tool in flood management planning.

Keywords: future land use impact, flood management, run off prediction, ArcSWAT

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Authors: Nikolaos Vassilas, Theocharis Tsenoglou, Djamchid Ghazanfarpour

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In this work we explore the capability of the mean shift algorithm as a powerful preprocessing tool for improving the quality of spatial data, acquired from airborne scanners, from densely built urban areas. On one hand, high resolution image data corrupted by noise caused by lossy compression techniques are appropriately smoothed while at the same time preserving the optical edges and, on the other, low resolution LiDAR data in the form of normalized Digital Surface Map (nDSM) is upsampled through the joint mean shift algorithm. Experiments on both the edge-preserving smoothing and upsampling capabilities using synthetic RGB-z data show that the mean shift algorithm is superior to bilateral filtering as well as to other classical smoothing and upsampling algorithms. Application of the proposed methodology for 3D reconstruction of buildings of a pilot region of Athens, Greece results in a significant visual improvement of the 3D building block model.

Keywords: 3D buildings reconstruction, data fusion, data upsampling, mean shift

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Authors: Romeu Bonk Mesquita

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Argentina is the South American number 1 country of destiny to intraregional migration flows. This research aims to shed light on the main trends of the Argentine immigrant policy from 2016 on, when Mauricio Marci was elected President, taking the approval of the current and fairly protective of human rights Ley de Migraciones (2003) as an analytical starting point. Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) serves as the theoretical background, highlighting decision-making processes and institutional designs that encourage or constraint political and social actors. The analysis goes through domestic and international levels, observing how immigration policy is formulated as a public policy and is simultaneously connected to Mercosur and other international organizations, such as the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Thus, the study revolves around the Direccion Nacional de Migraciones, which is the state agency in charge of executing the country’s immigrant policy, as to comprehend how its internal processes and the connections it has with both domestic and international institutions shape Argentina’s immigrant policy formulation and execution. Also, it aims to locate the migration agenda within the country’s contemporary social and political context. The methodology is qualitative, case-based and oriented by process-tracing techniques. Empirical evidence gathered includes official documents and data, media coverage and interviews to key-informants. Recent events, such as the Decreto de Necesidad y Urgencia 70/2017 issued by President Macri, and the return of discursive association between migration and criminality, indicate a trend of nationalization and securitization of the immigration policy in contemporary Argentina.

Keywords: Argentine foreign policy, human rights, immigrant policy, Mercosur

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Authors: Gülşen Kocaevli

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This paper aims to conduct a comparative analysis on the reflections of cultural elements such as language, festival, and food both in the case of Turkish immigrants in Germany and Mexican immigrants in the United States within a historical perspective. These reflections will be studied first by giving a certain background information on the migratory history of the two nations, Mexican immigration to the US, and Turkish immigration to Germany, respectively. These two cases were picked as the analytical subjects of this paper because both nations first migrated to the related country to constitute a labor force since there was a huge need for that due to several reasons such as the loss of manpower after certain wars or revolutions. At the end of this comparative study, it is speculated to be found that there are certain parallels between these two immigrant societies in the way that they reflect their cultures in the receiving country since both nations have a conventionalist nature which makes them tend more to protect their cultures and pay less effort to integrate into the society in which they are living. Even though this integration might be realized in certain fields like economic status and exogamy, it does not cover all segments nor is there any desire of the receiving government to integrate the immigrants but rather they make policies to assimilate them. This research paper will use a qualitative method which is fundamentally based on the interpretative data drawn from several sociological or ethnographic studies conducted in the related field. The primary and secondary resources of this paper will cover academic books, journal articles, particularly those reporting interviews with the immigrants, and certain governmental documents as well as publicized statistics regarding the subject of analysis. By the use of the aforementioned methodology and resources, the conventionalist nature of the two immigrant nations is aimed to be presented as the unifying factor in the way that Mexicans in the US and Turks in Germany reflect and protect their cultures in the form of language, festivals, and food.

Keywords: assimilation, culture, German-Turks, immigration, Mexican Americans

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Authors: Jonas Pedro Fabris, Alberth Almeida Amorim Souza, Maria Emilia Camargo, Suzana Leitão Russo

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With the law Nº. 9279, of May 14, 1996, the Brazilian government regulates rights and obligations relating to industrial property considering the economic development of the country as granting patents, trademark registration, registration of industrial designs and other forms of protection copyright. In this study, we show the application of the methodology of Box and Jenkins in the series of deposits of industrial design at the National Institute of Industrial Property for the period from May 1996 to April 2013. First, a graphical analysis of the data was done by observing the behavior of the data and the autocorrelation function. The best model found, based on the analysis of charts and statistical tests suggested by Box and Jenkins methodology, it was possible to determine the model number for the deposit of industrial design, SARIMA (2,1,0)(2,0,0), with an equal to 9.88% MAPE.

Keywords: ARIMA models, autocorrelation, Box and Jenkins Models, industrial design, MAPE, time series

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Authors: Moomen Chaari, Wolfgang Ecker, Thomas Kruse, Bogdan-Andrei Tabacaru

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In our daily life, we frequently interact with complex systems which facilitate our mobility, enhance our access to information, and sometimes help us recover from illnesses or diseases. The reliance on these systems is motivated by the established evaluation and assessment procedures which are performed during the different phases of the design and manufacturing flow. Such procedures are aimed to qualify the system’s delivered services with respect to their availability, reliability, safety, and other properties generally referred to as dependability attributes. In this paper, we propose a metamodel based generic characterization of dependability concepts and describe an automation methodology to customize this characterization to different standards and contexts. When integrated in concrete design and verification environments, the proposed methodology promotes the reuse of already available dependability assessment tools and reduces the costs and the efforts required to create consistent and efficient artefacts for fault injection or error simulation.

Keywords: dependability analysis, model-driven development, metamodeling, code generation

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Authors: Slwa Al-Hammad

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Adaptation studies have been closely aligned to translation studies as both deal with the process of rendering the meaning from one culture to another. These two disciplines are related to each other, but the theories are still being developed. This research aims to fill this gap and provide a contribution to the growing discipline of adaptation studies through a theoretical perspective while investigating how different cultural interpretations of adaptation influence the final literary product. This research focuses on the theoretical concepts of Barthes’s death of the author and Benjamin’s afterlife of the text in translation, which is believed to lead to the birth of the adapter in a literary work. That is, in adaptation, the ‘death’ of the author allows for the ‘birth’ of the adapter, offering them all the creative possibilities of authorship. It also explores the differences between the meanings of adaptation in the West and the Arab world through the analysis of adapted texts in Arabic initially deriving from the European and American literature of the 19th and 20th centuries. The methodology of this thesis is based upon qualitative literary analysis, in which original and adapted works are compared and contrasted, with the additional insights of literary and adaptation theories and prior scholarship. The main works discussed are the Arabic adaptations of William Faulkner’s novels. The analysis is guided by theories of adaptation studies to help in explaining the concepts of relocating, recreating, and rewriting in the process of adaptation. It draws on scholarship on adaptations to inquire into the status of the adapted texts in relation to the original texts. Also, these theories prove that adaptation is the process that is used to transfer text from source to adapted text, not some other analytical practice. Through the textual analysis, concepts of the death of the author and the birth of the adapter will be illustrated, as will the roles of the adapter and the task of rendering works for a different culture, and the understanding of adaptation and Arabization in Arabic literature.

Keywords: adaptation, Arabization, authorship, recreating, relocating

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Authors: Kevin Zhao, Norman J. Horing

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A methodology for cells sorting and circulating tumor cell detection and discrimination is presented in this paper. The technique is based on Dielectrophoresis and microfluidic device theory. Specifically, the sorting of the cells is realized by adjusting the relation among the sedimentation forces, the drag force provided by the fluid, and the Dielectrophortic force that is relevant to the bias voltage applied on the device. The relation leads to manipulation of the elevation of the cells of the same kind to a height by controlling the bias voltage. Once the cells have been lifted to a position next to the bottom of the cell collection channel, the buffer fluid flashes them into the cell collection channel. Repeated elevation of the cells leads to a complete sorting of the cells in the sample chamber. A proof-of-principle example is presented which verifies the feasibility of the methodology.

Keywords: cell sorter, CTC cell, detection and discrimination, dielectrophoresisords, simulation

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Authors: C. Patrascioiu, M. Jamali

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The paper deals with the simulation of the crude distillation process using the Unisim Design simulator. The necessity of simulating this process is argued both by considerations related to the design of the crude distillation column, but also by considerations related to the design of advanced control systems. In order to use the Unisim Design simulator to simulate the crude distillation process, the identification of the simulators used in Romania and an analysis of the PRO/II, HYSYS, and Aspen HYSYS simulators were carried out. Analysis of the simulators for the crude distillation process has allowed the authors to elaborate the conclusions of the success of the crude modelling. A first aspect developed by the authors is the implementation of specific problems of petroleum liquid-vapors equilibrium using Unisim Design simulator. The second major element of the article is the development of the methodology and the elaboration of the simulation program for the crude distillation process, using Unisim Design resources. The obtained results validate the proposed methodology and will allow dynamic simulation of the process.  

Keywords: crude oil, distillation, simulation, Unisim Design, simulators

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Authors: Michael Anton Kraus, Miriam Schuster, Geralt Siebert, Jens Schneider

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Polymers increasingly gained interest in construction materials over the last years in civil engineering applications. As polymeric materials typically show time- and temperature dependent material behavior, which is accounted for in the context of the theory of linear viscoelasticity. Within the context of this paper, the authors show, that some polymeric interlayers for laminated glass can not be considered as thermorheologically simple as they do not follow a simple TTSP, thus a methodology of identifying the thermorheologically complex constitutive bahavioir is needed. ‘Dynamical-Mechanical-Thermal-Analysis’ (DMTA) in tensile and shear mode as well as ‘Differential Scanning Caliometry’ (DSC) tests are carried out on the interlayer material ‘Ethylene-vinyl acetate’ (EVA). A navoel Bayesian framework for the Master Curving Process as well as the detection and parameter identification of the TTSPs along with their associated Prony-series is derived and applied to the EVA material data. To our best knowledge, this is the first time, an uncertainty quantification of the Prony-series in a Bayesian context is shown. Within this paper, we could successfully apply the derived Bayesian methodology to the EVA material data to gather meaningful Master Curves and TTSPs. Uncertainties occurring in this process can be well quantified. We found, that EVA needs two TTSPs with two associated Generalized Maxwell Models. As the methodology is kept general, the derived framework could be also applied to other thermorheologically complex polymers for parameter identification purposes.

Keywords: bayesian parameter identification, generalized Maxwell model, linear viscoelasticity, thermorheological complex

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Authors: Qiming Wang

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Dynamic polymer networks (DPNs) crosslinked by dynamic bonds have received intensive attention because of their special crack-healing capability. Diverse DPNs have been synthesized using a number of dynamic bonds, including dynamic covalent bond, hydrogen bond, ionic bond, metal-ligand coordination, hydrophobic interaction, and others. Despite the promising success in the polymer synthesis, the fundamental understanding of their self-healing mechanics is still at the very beginning. Especially, a general analytical model to understand the interfacial self-healing behaviors of DPNs has not been established. Here, we develop polymer-network based analytical theories that can mechanistically model the constitutive behaviors and interfacial self-healing behaviors of DPNs. We consider that the DPN is composed of interpenetrating networks crosslinked by dynamic bonds. bonds obey a force-dependent chemical kinetics. During the self-healing process, we consider the The network chains follow inhomogeneous chain-length distributions and the dynamic polymer chains diffuse across the interface to reform the dynamic bonds, being modeled by a diffusion-reaction theory. The theories can predict the stress-stretch behaviors of original and self-healed DPNs, as well as the healing strength in a function of healing time. We show that the theoretically predicted healing behaviors can consistently match the documented experimental results of DPNs with various dynamic bonds, including dynamic covalent bonds (diarylbibenzofuranone and olefin metathesis), hydrogen bonds, and ionic bonds. We expect our model to be a powerful tool for the self-healing community to invent, design, understand, and optimize self-healing DPNs with various dynamic bonds.

Keywords: self-healing polymers, dynamic covalent bonds, hydrogen bonds, ionic bonds

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Authors: Methembe Mdlalose

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This paper synthesizes the findings of a study that utilized a purposive sampling methodology laced within a grounded theory analytical framework with LED managers, mayors, and traditional leaders representing six municipalities of uThukela District of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The paper critiques the two institution’s micro-relations within local governance and their overall impact on the general development discourse of rural areas. The study is located in the province of KwaZulu-Natal, a part of South Africa that experiences extremely low levels of development in rural areas and suffers from high rates of inequality, poverty, and unemployment. The paper unpacks the role of two significant stakeholders in the local sphere. Considered as the two dominant stakeholders at the local level, questions of compatibility between traditional leaders and municipal councillors often surge, as the two institutions (who represent two autonomous entities) that operate within the same operational boarders. The discussion around community development lies very deeply on accountability, which assures citizens that fruitless spending is curbed and good governance is maintained. If development is to be assured, it is vital to monitor accountability within government spheres and its departments. It is further essential to monitor the relations within local government. The findings of this research confirmed how relationships between traditional leaders and councillors can and have contributed to economic development or its stagnation thereof in rural areas. In addition, the findings revealed that there is an extensive need for the two stakeholders to work collectively, as this is a vital move in planning for development. Furthermore, the better accountability of local government and a better understanding of how clear policy and its implementation is may be a valuable asset in the discourse of community economic development in rural areas.

Keywords: economic development, traditional leadership, democratically elected councillors, local governance

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Authors: Mahyar MehrAfarin

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The Sistan region in eastern Iran is a significant archaeological area in Iran and the Middle East, encompassing 10,000 square kilometers. Previous archeological field surveys have identified 1662 ancient sites dating from prehistoric periods to the Islamic period. Research Aim: This article aims to explore the utilization of modern technologies and computers in archaeological field surveys in Sistan, Iran, and the benefits derived from their implementation. Methodology: The research employs a descriptive-analytical approach combined with field methods. New technologies and software, such as GPS, drones, magnetometers, equipped cameras, satellite images, and software programs like GIS, Map source, and Excel, were utilized to collect information and analyze data. Findings: The use of modern technologies and computers in archaeological field surveys proved to be essential. Traditional archaeological activities, such as excavation and field surveys, are time-consuming and costly. Employing modern technologies helps in preserving ancient sites, accurately recording archaeological data, reducing errors and mistakes, and facilitating correct and accurate analysis. Creating a comprehensive and accessible database, generating statistics, and producing graphic designs and diagrams are additional advantages derived from the use of efficient technologies in archaeology. Theoretical Importance: The integration of computers and modern technologies in archaeology contributes to interdisciplinary collaborations and facilitates the involvement of specialists from various fields, such as geography, history, art history, anthropology, laboratory sciences, and computer engineering. The utilization of computers in archaeology spanned across diverse areas, including database creation, statistical analysis, graphics implementation, laboratory and engineering applications, and even artificial intelligence, which remains an unexplored area in Iranian archaeology. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: Information was collected using modern technologies and software, capturing geographic coordinates, aerial images, archeogeophysical data, and satellite images. This data was then inputted into various software programs for analysis, including GIS, Map source, and Excel. The research employed both descriptive and analytical methods to present findings effectively. Question Addressed: The primary question addressed in this research is how the use of modern technologies and computers in archeological field surveys in Sistan, Iran, can enhance archaeological data collection, preservation, analysis, and accessibility. Conclusion: The utilization of modern technologies and computers in archaeological field surveys in Sistan, Iran, has proven to be necessary and beneficial. These technologies aid in preserving ancient sites, accurately recording archaeological data, reducing errors, and facilitating comprehensive analysis. The creation of accessible databases, statistics generation, graphic designs, and interdisciplinary collaborations are further advantages observed. It is recommended to explore the potential of artificial intelligence in Iranian archaeology as an unexplored area. The research has implications for cultural heritage organizations, archaeology students, and universities involved in archaeological field surveys in Sistan and Baluchistan province. Additionally, it contributes to enhancing the understanding and preservation of Iran's archaeological heritage.

Keywords: Iran, sistan, archaeological surveys, computer use, modern technologies

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Authors: Tunjo Perić, Franjo Bratić

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In this paper the goal programming methodology for solving multiple objective problem of the technological variants and production plan optimization has been applied. The optimization criteria are determined and the multiple objective linear programming model for solving a problem of the technological variants and production plan optimization is formed and solved. Then the obtained results are analysed. The obtained results point out to the possibility of efficient application of the goal programming methodology in solving the problem of the technological variants and production plan optimization. The paper points out on the advantages of the application of the goal programming methodolohy compare to the Surrogat Worth Trade-off method in solving this problem.

Keywords: goal programming, multi objective programming, production plan, SWT method, technological variants

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Authors: Tim Wollert, Fabian Behrendt

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Value Stream Management (VSM) is a widely used methodology in the context of Lean Management for improving end-to-end material and information flows from a supplier to a customer from a company’s perspective. Whereas the design principles, e.g. Pull, value-adding, customer-orientation and further ones are still valid against the background of an increasing digitalized and dynamic environment, the methodology itself for mapping a value stream is characterized as time- and resource-intensive due to the high degree of manual activities. The digitalization of processes in the context of Industry 4.0 enables new opportunities to reduce these manual efforts and make the VSM approach more agile. The paper at hand aims at providing a modular data and calculation framework, utilizing the available business data, provided by information and communication technologies for automizing the value stream mapping process with focus on the manufacturing process.

Keywords: lean management 4.0, value stream management (VSM) 4.0, dynamic value stream mapping, enterprise resource planning (ERP)

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Authors: Punam Kumari Mandal, Namita Yangden, Bhumika Rai, Achala Niraula, Sabitra Subedi

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introduction: Family planning not only improves women’s health but also promotes gender equality, better child health, and improved education outcomes, including poverty reduction. The objective of this study is to assess the utilization of family planning methods and associated factors in Sunsari, Nepal. methodology: A cross-sectional analytical study was conducted among women of the reproductive age group (15-49 years) in Sunsari in 2020. Nonprobability purposive sampling was used to collect information from 212 respondents through face-to-face interviews using a Semi-structured interview schedule from ward no 1 of Barju rural municipality. Data processing was done by using SPSS “statistics for windows, version 17.0(SPSS Inc., Chicago, III.USA”). Descriptive analysis and inferential analysis (binary logistic regression) were used to find the association of the utilization of family planning methods with selected demographic variables. All the variables with P-value <0.1 in bivariate analysis were included in multivariate analysis. A P-value of <0.05 was considered to indicate statistical significance at a level of significance of 5%. results: This study showed that the mean age and standard deviation of the respondents were 26±7.03, and 91.5 % of respondent’s age at marriage was less than 20 years. Likewise, 67.5% of respondents use any methods of family planning, and 55.2% of respondents use family planning services from the government health facility. Furthermore, education (AOR 1.579, CI 1.013-2.462)., husband’s occupation (AOR 1.095, CI 0.744-1.610)., type of family (AOR 2.741, CI 1.210-6.210)., and no of living son (AOR 0.259 CI 0.077-0.872)are the factors associated with the utilization of family planning methods. conclusion: This study concludes that two-thirds of reproductive-age women utilize family planning methods. Furthermore, education, the husband’s occupation, the type of family, and no of living sons are the factors associated with the utilization of family planning methods. This reflects that awareness through mass media, including behavioral communication, is needed to increase the utilization of family planning methods.

Keywords: family planning methods, utilization. factors, women, community

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Authors: Nessreen Y. Ibrahim

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Designing the future according to realistic analytical study for the futuristic market needs can be a milestone strategy to make a huge improvement in developing countries economics. In developing countries, access to high technology and latest science approaches is very limited. The financial problems in low and medium income countries have negative effects on the kind and quality of imported new technologies and application for their markets. Thus, there is a strong need for shifting paradigm thinking in the design process to improve and evolve their development strategy. This paper discusses future possibilities in developing countries, and how they can design their own future according to specific future models FDM (Future Design Models), which established to solve certain economical problems, as well as political and cultural conflicts. FDM is strategic thinking framework provides an improvement in both content and process. The content includes; beliefs, values, mission, purpose, conceptual frameworks, research, and practice, while the process includes; design methodology, design systems, and design managements tools. In this paper the main objective was building an innovative economic model to design a chosen possible futuristic scenario; by understanding the market future needs, analyze real world setting, solve the model questions by future driven design, and finally interpret the results, to discuss to what extent the results can be transferred to the real world. The paper discusses Egypt as a potential case study. Since, Egypt has highly complex economical problems, extra-dynamic political factors, and very rich cultural aspects; we considered Egypt is a very challenging example for applying FDM. The paper results recommended using FDM numerical modeling as a starting point to design the future.

Keywords: developing countries, economic models, future design, possible futures

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Authors: Ranjini Ramanath, Nanjunda P. Swamy

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Construction has existed in our lives since time immemorial. However, unlike any other industry, construction projects have their own unique challenges – project type, purpose and end use of the project, geographical conditions, logistic arrangements, largely unorganized manpower and requirement of diverse skill sets, etc. These unique characteristics bring in their own level of risk and uncertainties to the project, which cause the project to deviate from its planned objectives of time, cost, quality, etc. over the many years, there have been significant developments in the way construction projects are conceptualized, planned, and managed. With the rapid increase in the population, increased rate of urbanization, there is a growing demand for infrastructure development, and it is required that the projects are delivered timely, and efficiently. In an age where ‘Time is Money,' implementation of new techniques of project management is required in leading to successful projects. This paper proposes a different approach to project management, which if applied in construction projects, can help in the accomplishment of the project objectives in a faster manner.

Keywords: critical chain project management methodology, critical chain, project management, construction management

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Authors: Allé Dieng, Mamadou Bousso, Latif Dramani

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The purpose of this work is to show the complexity behind economical interrelations in a country and provide a linear dynamic model of economical dependency evolution in a country. The model is based on National Transfer Account which is one of the most robust methodology developed in order to measure a level of demographic dividend captured in a country. It is built upon three major factors: demography, economical dependency and migration. The established mathematical model has been simulated using Netlogo software. The innovation of this study is in describing economical dependency as a complex system and simulating using mathematical equation the evolution of the two populations: the economical dependent and the non-economical dependent as defined in the National Transfer Account methodology. It also allows us to see the interactions and behaviors of both populations. The model can track individual characteristics and look at the effect of birth and death rates on the evolution of these two populations. The developed model is useful to understand how demographic and economic phenomenon are related

Keywords: ABM, demographic dividend, National Transfer Accounts (NTA), ODE

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Authors: Eleanor F. Willard

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The attrition rate on distance learning courses can be high. This research examines how online students often react when faced with poor results. Using q methodology, it was found that the emotional response level and the type of social support sought by students were key influences on their attitude to failure. As educational and psychological researchers, we are adept at measuring learning and achievement, but examining attitudes towards barriers to learning are not so well researched. The distance learning student has differing needs from onsite learners and, as the attrition rate is notoriously high in the online student population, examining learners’ attitude towards adversity and barriers is important. Self-report measures such as questionnaires are useful in terms of ascertaining levels of constructs such as resilience and academic confidence. Interviewing, too, can gain in depth detail of the opinions of such a population, but only in individuals. The aim of this research was to ascertain what the feelings and attitudes of online students were when faced with a setback. This was achieved using q methodology due to its use of both quantitative and qualitative methodology and its suitability for exploratory research. The emphasis with this methodology is the attitudes, not the individuals. The work was focused upon a population of distance learning students who attended a school on site for one week as part of their studies. They were engaged in a psychology masters conversion course and, as such, were graduate students. The Q sort had 30 items taken from the Academic Resilience Scale (ARS-30). The scale items represent three constructs; perseverance, reflecting (including adaptive help-seeking) and negative affect. These are widely acknowledged as being relevant concepts underpinning psychological resilience. The q sort was conducted with 19 students in total. This is done by participants arranging statement cards regarding how similar to themselves they believe each statement to be. This was done after reading a vignette describing an experience of academic failure. Commonalities and differences between the sorts from all participants are then analyzed in terms of correlations and response patterns. Following data collection, the participants' responses were initially analyzed and the key perspectives (factors) to emerge were labelled ‘persevering individuals’ and ‘emotional networkers’. The differences between the two perspectives centre around the level of emotion felt when faced with barriers and the extent that students enlist the help of others inside and outside of the university. The dominant factor to emerge from the sorts of ‘persevering individuals’ demonstrated that many distance learners are tenacious. However, for other students, the level of emotional and social support is pivotal in helping them complete their studies when facing adversity. This was demonstrated by the ‘emotional networkers’ perspective. This research forms a starting point for further work on engaging and retaining online students at university and can potentially provide insight into how universities can lower attrition rates on distance learning courses.

Keywords: academic resilience, distance learning, online learning, q methodology

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Authors: Haowei Lu, Anaya Aaron

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Understanding historical solar generation and forecasting future solar generation from interconnected Distributed Energy Resources (DER) is crucial for utility planning and interconnection studies. The existing methodology, which relies on solar radiation, weather data, and common inverter models, is becoming less accurate. Rapid advancements in DER technologies have resulted in more diverse project sites, deviating from common patterns due to various factors such as DC/AC ratio, solar panel performance, tilt angle, and the presence of DC-coupled battery energy storage systems. In this paper, the authors review 10,000 DER projects within the system and analyze the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) data for various types to demonstrate the impact of different parameters. An updated methodology is proposed for redefining historical and future solar generation in distribution feeders.

Keywords: photovoltaic system, solar energy, fluctuations, energy storage, uncertainty

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Authors: Mahmoud Y. Shokry, Rami M. El-Sherbiny

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This paper aims to highlight the role of some parameters that may be of a noticeable impact on numerical analysis/design of embankments. It presents the results of a three-dimensional (3-D) finite element analysis of a monitored earth embankment that was constructed on soft clay formation stabilized by cast in-situ piles using software PLAXIS 3D. A comparison between the predicted and the monitored responses is presented to assess the adequacy of the adopted numerical model. The model was used in the targeted parametric study. Moreover, a comparison was performed between the results of the 3-D analyses and the analytical solutions. This paper concluded that the effect of using mono pile caps led to decrease both the total and differential settlement and increased the efficiency of the piled embankment system. The study of using geogrids revealed that it can contribute in decreasing the settlement and maximizing the part of the embankment load transferred to piles. Moreover, it was found that increasing the stiffness of the geogrids provides higher values of tensile forces and hence has more effective influence on embankment load carried by piles rather than using multi-number of layers with low values of geogrid stiffness. The efficiency of the piled embankments system was also found to be greater when higher embankments are used rather than the low height embankments. The comparison between the numerical 3-D model and the theoretical design methods revealed that many analytical solutions are conservative and non-accurate rather than the 3-D finite element numerical models.

Keywords: efficiency, embankment, geogrids, soft clay

Procedia PDF Downloads 308