Search results for: sedimentation modeling

Authors: Mehrdad Kamali-Sanzighi, Maziar Kamali-Sanzighi

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The aim of this investigation is to study the phytoplankton and saprobic index at warm water fish ponds in the East of Golestan province, Gonbade Kavous city. Phytoplankton and ciliate sampling were done monthly during one season of culture. Finally, 39 genera from 7 classes of phytoplankton and 4 genera from the ciliate group were identified. Although, among different classes, Chlorophyceae, Cyanophyceae, Bacillariophyceae, Charophyceae, Chrysophyceae, Dinophyceae, and Euglenophyceae had the highest and lowest frequency percent of phytoplankton community with 23, 21, 20, 14, 11, 6 and 5 percent respectively. The results show that there are no significant differences between the saprobic index of different ponds (P > 0.05). But there are significant differences between the saprobic index value of different months and seasons during season culture (P < 0.05). Also, in current research, the saprobic index indicated the ß-mesosaprob water quality level. There was a general tends of decrease in the saprobic index value from the beginning to the end of the culture season. Parameters such as biomass increase of grower fishes, an increase of introduced chemical fertilizer and manure sedimentation, uneaten fish feed, fish fecal, and no regular exchangeable water resources are some of these changes' reasons.

Keywords: fish pond, Golestan Province, saprobi index, phytoplankton, water quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Benjamin Leiby, Darryl Ahner

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This study demonstrates an alternative stochastic imputation approach for large datasets when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The methodology capitalizes on correlation while using model residuals to provide the uncertainty in estimating unknown values. Examination of the methodology provides insight toward choosing linear or nonlinear modeling terms. Static tolerances common in most packages are replaced with tailorable tolerances that exploit residuals to fit each data element. The methodology evaluation includes observing computation time, model fit, and the comparison of known values to replaced values created through imputation. Overall, the country conflict dataset illustrates promise with modeling first-order interactions while presenting a need for further refinement that mimics predictive mean matching.

Keywords: correlation, country conflict, imputation, stochastic regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Wayan Widhiada, Cok Indra Partha, Gusti Ngurah Nitya Santhiarsa

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the sophistication of the use of Proportional Integral and Derivative Control to control the kinematic motion of the mobile robot manipulator. Simulation and experimental methods will be used to investigate the sophistication of PID control to control the mobile robot arm in the collection and placement of several kinds of objects quickly, accurately and correctly. Mathematical modeling will be done by utilizing the integration of Solidworks and MATLAB / Simmechanics software. This method works by converting the physical model file into the xml file. This method is easy, fast and accurate done in modeling and design robotics. The automatic control design of this robot manipulator will be validated in simulations and experimental in control labs as evidence that the mobile robot manipulator gripper control design can achieve the best performance such as the error signal is lower than 5%, small overshoot and get steady signal response as quickly.

Keywords: control analysis, kinematics motion, mobile robot manipulator, performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 409

Authors: Aaron Liggett

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This research focuses on the visionary proposal made by the Olmsted Brothers Landscape Architecture firm in the 1920s for a network of interconnected parkways in Los Angeles. Their envisioned parkways aimed to address environmental and cultural strains by providing green space for recreation, wildlife habitat, and stormwater management while serving as multimodal transportation routes. Although the parkways were never constructed, through an evidence-based approach, this research presents a framework for evaluating the potential functionality and success of the parkways by modeling and visualizing their quantitative and qualitative landscape performance and benefits. Historical documents and innovative digital modeling tools produce detailed analysis, modeling, and visualization of the parkway designs. A set of 1928 construction documents are used to analyze and interpret the design intent of the parkways. Grading plans are digitized in CAD and modeled in Sketchup to produce 3D visualizations of the parkway. Drainage plans are digitized to model stormwater performance. Planting plans are analyzed to model urban forestry and biodiversity. The EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) predicts runoff quantity and quality. The USDA Forests Service tools evaluate carbon sequestration and air quality. Spatial and overlay analysis techniques are employed to assess urban connectivity and the spatial impacts of the parkway designs. The study reveals how the integration of blue infrastructure, green infrastructure, and transportation infrastructure within the parkway design creates a multifunctional landscape capable of offering alternative spatial and temporal uses. The analysis demonstrates the potential for multiple functional, ecological, aesthetic, and social benefits to be derived from the proposed parkways. The analysis of the Olmsted Brothers' proposed Los Angeles parkways, which predated contemporary ecological design and resiliency practices, demonstrates the potential for providing multiple functional, ecological, aesthetic, and social benefits within urban designs. The findings highlight the importance of integrated blue, green, and transportation infrastructure in creating a multifunctional landscape that simultaneously serves multiple purposes. The research contributes new methods for modeling and visualizing landscape performance benefits, providing insights and techniques for informing future designs and sustainable development strategies.

Keywords: landscape architecture, ecological urban design, greenway, landscape performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: K. E. Oyetade, S. D. Eyono Obono

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One of the fundamental characteristics of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has been the ever-changing nature of continuous release and models of ICTs with its impact on the academic, social, and psychological benefits of its introduction in schools. However, there seems to be a growing concern about its negative impact on students when introduced early in schools for teaching and learning. This study aims to design a model of child development factors affecting the early introduction of ICTs in schools in an attempt to improve the understanding of child development and introduction of ICTs in schools. The proposed model is based on a sound theoretical framework. It was designed following a literature review of child development theories and child development factors. The child development theoretical framework that fitted to the best of all child development factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. This study hence found that the Jean Piaget cognitive developmental theory is the most adequate theoretical frameworks for modeling child development factors for ICT introduction in schools.

Keywords: child development factors, child development theories, ICTs, theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 413

Authors: Ayman Mutahar Alrassas, Shaoran Ren, Renyuan Ren, Hung Vo Thanh, Mohammed Hail Hakimi, Zhenliang Guan

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The significant effect of CO₂ on global climate and the environment has gained more concern worldwide. Enhance oil recovery (EOR) associated with sequestration of CO₂ particularly into the depleted oil reservoir is considered the viable approach under financial limitations since it improves the oil recovery from the existing oil reservoir and boosts the relation between global-scale of CO₂ capture and geological sequestration. Consequently, practical measurements are required to attain large-scale CO₂ emission reduction. This paper presents an integrated modeling workflow to construct an accurate 3D reservoir geological model to estimate the storage capacity of CO₂ under geological uncertainty in an unconventional oil reservoir of the Paleogene Shahejie Formation (Es1) in the block Nv32, Shenvsi oilfield, China. In this regard, geophysical data, including well logs of twenty-two well locations and seismic data, were combined with geological and engineering data and used to construct a 3D reservoir geological modeling. The geological modeling focused on four tight reservoir units of the Shahejie Formation (Es1-x1, Es1-x2, Es1-x3, and Es1-x4). The validated 3D reservoir models were subsequently used to calculate the theoretical CO₂ storage capacity in the block Nv32, Shenvsi oilfield. Well logs were utilized to predict petrophysical properties such as porosity and permeability, and lithofacies and indicate that the Es1 reservoir units are mainly sandstone, shale, and limestone with a proportion of 38.09%, 32.42%, and 29.49, respectively. Well log-based petrophysical results also show that the Es1 reservoir units generally exhibit 2–36% porosity, 0.017 mD to 974.8 mD permeability, and moderate to good net to gross ratios. These estimated values of porosity, permeability, lithofacies, and net to gross were up-scaled and distributed laterally using Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) and Simulation Sequential Indicator (SIS) methods to generate 3D reservoir geological models. The reservoir geological models show there are lateral heterogeneities of the reservoir properties and lithofacies, and the best reservoir rocks exist in the Es1-x4, Es1-x3, and Es1-x2 units, respectively. In addition, the reservoir volumetric of the Es1 units in block Nv32 was also estimated based on the petrophysical property models and fund to be between 0.554368

Keywords: CO₂ storage capacity, 3D geological model, geological uncertainty, unconventional oil reservoir, block Nv32

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Sara A. Pakvis, Giulia Scalet, Stefania Marconi, Ferdinando Auricchio, Matthijs Langelaar

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In recent developments in the field of multi-material additive manufacturing, differences in material properties are exploited to create printed shape-memory structures, which are referred to as 4D-printed structures. New printing techniques allow for the deliberate introduction of prestresses in the specimen during manufacturing, and, in combination with the right design, this enables new functionalities. This research focuses on bi-polymer 4D-printed structures, where the transformation process is based on a heat-induced glass transition in one material lowering its Young’s modulus, combined with an initial prestress in the other material. Upon the decrease in stiffness, the prestress is released, which results in the realization of an essentially pre-programmed deformation. As the design of such functional multi-material structures is crucial but far from trivial, a systematic methodology to find the design of 4D-printed structures is developed, where a finite element model is combined with a density-based topology optimization method to describe the material layout. This modeling approach is verified by a convergence analysis and validated by comparing its numerical results to analytical and published data. Specific aspects that are addressed include the interplay between the definition of the prestress and the material interpolation function used in the density-based topology description, the inclusion of a temperature-dependent stiffness relationship to simulate the glass transition effect, and the importance of the consideration of geometric nonlinearity in the finite element modeling. The efficacy of topology optimization to design 4D-printed structures is explored by applying the methodology to a variety of design problems, both in 2D and 3D settings. Bi-layer designs composed of thermoplastic polymers are printed by means of the fused deposition modeling (FDM) technology. Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) polymer undergoes the glass transition transformation, while polyurethane (TPU) polymer is prestressed by means of the 3D-printing process itself. Tests inducing shape transformation in the printed samples through heating are performed to calibrate the prestress and validate the modeling approach by comparing the numerical results to the experimental findings. Using the experimentally obtained prestress values, more complex designs have been generated through topology optimization, and samples have been printed and tested to evaluate their performance. This study demonstrates that by combining topology optimization and 4D-printing concepts, stimuli-responsive structures with specific properties can be designed and realized.

Keywords: 4D-printing, glass transition, shape memory polymer, topology optimization

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Authors: Talebi Aliasghar, Ebrahimpour Komeleh Hooman, Maghsoudi Ali Akbar

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In reinforced concrete (RC) structures, beam-column connection region has a considerable effect on the behavior of structures. Using fiber reinforcement polymer (FRP) for the strengthening of connections in RC structures can be one of the solutions to retrofitting this zone which result in the enhanced behavior of structure. In this paper, these changes in behavior by using FRP for high strength concrete beam-column connection have been studied by finite element modeling. The concrete damage plasticity (CDP) model has been used to analyze the RC. The results illustrated a considerable development in load-bearing capacity but also a noticeable reduction in ductility. The study also assesses these qualities for several modes of strengthening and suggests the most effective mode of strengthening. Using FRP in flexural zone and FRP with 45-degree oriented fibers in shear zone of joint showed the most significant change in behavior.

Keywords: HSC, beam-column connection, Fiber Reinforcement Polymer, FRP, Finite Element Modeling, FEM

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Issamaldin Mohammed, Ahmed Abdalla, Hatim Elobied

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Soil erosion is globally known for adverse effects on social, environmental and economical aspects which directly or indirectly influence the human life. The area under study suffers from problems like water quality, river and agricultural canals bed rise due to high sediment load brought by Algash River from upstream (Eritrea high land), the current study utilized from remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) to estimate the annual soil loss using Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The USLE is widely used over the world which basically relies on rainfall erosivity factor (R), soil erodibility factor (K), topographic factor (LS), cover management factor (C) and support practice factor (P). The result of the study showed high soil loss in the study area, this result was illustrated in a form of map presenting the spatial distribution of soil loss amounts which classified into seven zones ranging from very slight zone (less than 2 ton/ha.year) to very severe (100-500 ton/ha.year), also the total soil loss from the whole study area was found to be 32,916,840.87 ton/ha.year. These kinds of results will help the experts of land management to give a priority for the severely affected zones to be tackled in an appropriate way.

Keywords: Geographical Information System, remote sensing, sedimentation, soil loss

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: L. Nouri Taiba, Y. Bouhamidi, F. Kaouah, Z. Bendjama, M. Trari

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In the present study, an ecofriendly biocomposite namely calcium alginate immobilized Ammi Visnaga (Khella) extraction waste (SWAV/CA) was prepared by electrostatic extrusion method and used on the cadmium biosorption from aqueous phase with and without the assistance of ultrasound in batch conditions. The influence of low frequency ultrasound (37 and 80 KHz) on the cadmium biosorption kinetics was studied. The obtained results show that the ultrasonic irradiation significantly enhances and improves the efficiency of the cadmium removal. The Pseudo first order, Pseudo-second-order, Intraparticle diffusion, and Elovich models were evaluated using the non-linear curve fitting analysis method. Modeling of kinetic results shows that biosorption process is best described by the pseudo-second order and Elovich, in both the absence and presence of ultrasound.

Keywords: biocomposite, biosorption, cadmium, non-linear analysis, ultrasound

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Muhammad Abu Bakar Tariq

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Construction industry plays a crucial role in the progress of societies and economies. Furthermore, construction projects have social as well as economic implications, thus, their success/failure have wider impacts. However, the industry is lagging behind in terms of efficiency and productivity. Building Information Modeling (BIM) is recognized as a revolutionary development in Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) industry. There are numerous interest groups around the world providing definitions of BIM, proponents describing its advantages and opponents identifying challenges/barriers regarding adoption of BIM. This research is aimed at to determine what actually BIM is, along with its potential role in delivering successful construction projects. The methodology is critical analysis of secondary data sources i.e. information present in public domain, which include peer reviewed journal articles, industry and government reports, conference papers, books, case studies etc. It is discovered that clash detection and visualization are two major advantages of BIM. Clash detection option identifies clashes among structural, architectural and MEP designs before construction actually commences, which subsequently saves time as well as cost and ensures quality during execution phase of a project. Visualization is a powerful tool that facilitates in rapid decision-making in addition to communication and coordination among stakeholders throughout project’s life cycle. By eliminating inconsistencies that consume time besides cost during actual construction, improving collaboration among stakeholders throughout project’s life cycle, BIM can play a positive role to achieve efficiency and productivity that consequently deliver successful construction projects.

Keywords: building information modeling, clash detection, construction project success, visualization

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Elisaveta Doncheva, Jelena Djokikj, Ognen Tuteski, Bojana Hadjieva

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In the past decade, additive manufacturing technology or 3D printing has been promoted as an efficient method for fabricating hybrid composite materials and structures with superior mechanical properties and complex shape and geometry. Fused deposition modeling (FDM) process is commonly used additive manufacturing technique for production of polymer products. Therefore, many studies and experiments are focused on investigating the possibilities for improving the obtained results on product properties as a key factor for expanding the spectrum of their application. This article provides an extensive review on recent research advances in FDM and reports on studies that cover the effects of process parameters, material, and design of the product properties. The paper conclusions provide a clear up-to date information for optimum efficiency and enhancement of the mechanical properties of 3D printed samples and recommends further research work and investigations.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, critical parameters, filament, print orientation, 3D printing

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Faezeh Aghazadeh, Mohammad Javad Sharifi

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The application of neural networks to model a full-scale industrial acetylene hydrogenation in olefin plant has been studied. The operating variables studied are the, input-temperature of the reactor, output-temperature of the reactor, hydrogen ratio of the reactor, [C₂H₂]input, and [C₂H₆]input. The studied operating variables were used as the input to the constructed neural network to predict the [C₂H₆]output at any time as the output or the target. The constructed neural network was found to be highly precise in predicting the quantity of [C₂H₆]output for the new input data, which are kept unaware of the trained neural network showing its applicability to determine the [C₂H₆]output for any operating conditions. The enhancement of [C₂H₆]output as compared with [C₂H₆]input was a consequence of low selective acetylene hydrogenation to ethylene.

Keywords: acetylene hydrogenation, Pd-Ag/Al₂O₃, artificial neural network, modeling, optimal design

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Hadas Sopher, Davide Schaumann, Yehuda E. Kalay

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This paper addresses the shortcomings of architectural computation tools in representing human behavior in built environments, prior to construction and occupancy of those environments. Evaluating whether a design fits the needs of its future users is currently done solely post construction, or is based on the knowledge and intuition of the designer. This issue is of high importance when designing complex buildings such as hospitals, where the quality of treatment as well as patient and staff satisfaction are of major concern. Existing computational pre-occupancy human behavior evaluation methods are geared mainly to test ergonomic issues, such as wheelchair accessibility, emergency egress, etc. As such, they rely on Agent Based Modeling (ABM) techniques, which emphasize the individual user. Yet we know that most human activities are social, and involve a number of actors working together, which ABM methods cannot handle. Therefore, we present an event-based model that manages the interaction between multiple Actors, Spaces, and Activities, to describe dynamically how people use spaces. This approach requires expanding the computational representation of Actors beyond their physical description, to include psychological, social, cultural, and other parameters. The model presented in this paper includes cognitive abilities and rules that describe the response of actors to their physical and social surroundings, based on the actors’ internal status. The model has been applied in a simulation of hospital wards, and showed adaptability to a wide variety of situated behaviors and interactions.

Keywords: agent based modeling, architectural design evaluation, event modeling, human behavior simulation, spatial cognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Nikolaos Simantiris, Markos Avlonitis

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This work builds a simulation platform, modeling the spatial diffusion of the invasive species Callinectes sapidus (blue crab) as a random walk, incorporating also generation, fatality, and fishing rates modeling the time evolution of its population. Antinioti lagoon in West Greece was used as a testbed for applying the simulation model. Field measurements from June 2020 to June 2021 on the lagoon’s setting, bathymetry, and blue crab juveniles provided the initial population simulation of blue crabs, as well as biological parameters from the current literature were used to calibrate simulation parameters. The scope of this study is to render the authors able to predict the evolution of the blue crab population in confined environments of the Ionian Islands region in West Greece. The first result of the simulation experiments shows the possibility for a robust prediction for blue crab population evolution in the Antinioti lagoon.

Keywords: antinioti lagoon, blue crab, stochastic simulation, random walk

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Kim Young-Jin, Kim Byung-Kon

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Although more efforts to expand the application of BIM (Building Information Modeling) technologies have be pursued in recent years than ever, it’s true that there have been various challenges in doing so, including a lack or absence of relevant institutions, lots of costs required to build BIM-related infrastructure, incompatible processes, etc. This, in turn, has led to a more prolonged delay in the expansion of their application than expected at an early stage. Especially, attempts to save costs for building BIM-related infrastructure and provide various BIM services compatible with domestic processes include studies to link between BIM and cloud computing technologies. Also in this study, the author attempted to develop a cloud BIM service operation model through analyzing the level of BIM applications for the construction sector and deriving relevant service areas, and find how to link BIM services to the cloud operation model, as through archiving BIM data and creating a revenue structure so that the BIM services may grow spontaneously, considering a demand for cloud resources.

Keywords: construction IT, BIM (building information modeling), cloud computing, BIM service based cloud computing

Procedia PDF Downloads 487

Authors: Reza Ziaie Moayed, Javad Shamsi Soosahab

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Helical piles are being used extensively in engineering applications all over the world. There are insufficient studies on the helical piles' behavior in anisotropic soils. In this paper, numerical modeling was adopted to investigate the effect of elastic modulus anisotropy on helical pile behavior resting on anisotropic sand by using a finite element limit analysis. The load-displacement behavior of helical piles under compression and tension loads is investigated in different relative densities of soils, and the effect of the ratio of horizontal elastic modulus with respect to vertical elastic modulus (EH/EV) is evaluated. The obtained results illustrate that in sandy soils, the anisotropic ratio of elastic modulus (EH/EV) has notable effect on bearing capacity of helical piles in different relative density. Therefore, it may be recommended that the effect of anisotropic condition of soil elastic modulus should be considered in helical piles behavior.

Keywords: helical piles, bearing capacity, numerical modeling, soil anisotropy

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: N. H. Hamid, N. M. Mohamed, S. A. Anuar

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Precast residential houses are normally constructed in Malaysia using precast shear-key wall panel and precast wall panel are designed using BS8110 where there is no provision for earthquake. However, the safety of this house under moderate and strong earthquake is still questionable. Consequently, the full-scale of residential house are designed, constructed, tested and analyzed under in-plane lateral cyclic loading. Hysteresis loops are plotted based on the experimental work and compared with modeling of hysteresis loops using HYSTERES in RUAUMOKO 2D program. Modified Takeda hysteresis model is chosen to behave a similar pattern with experimental work. This program will display the earthquake excitations, spectral displacements, pseudo spectral acceleration, and deformation shape of the structure. It can be concluded that this building is suffering severe cracks and damage under moderate and severe earthquake.

Keywords: precast shear-key, hysteresis loops, spectral displacements, deformation shape

Procedia PDF Downloads 456

Authors: Verónica Díaz

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A Cartesian graph, as a mathematical object, becomes a tool for configuration of change. Its best comprehension is done through everyday life problem-solving associated with its representation. Despite this, the current educational framework favors general graphs, without consideration of their argumentation. Students are required to find the mathematical function without associating it to the development of graphical language. This research describes the use made by students of configurations made prior to Cartesian graphs with regards to an everyday life problem related to a time and distance variation phenomenon. The theoretical framework describes the function conditions of study and their modeling. This is a qualitative, descriptive study involving six undergraduate case studies that were carried out during the first term in 2016 at University of Los Lagos. The research problem concerned the graphic modeling of a real person’s movement phenomenon, and two levels of analysis were identified. The first level aims to identify local and global graph interpretations; a second level describes the iconicity and referentiality degree of an image. According to the results, students were able to draw no figures before the Cartesian graph, highlighting the need for students to represent the context and the movement of which causes the phenomenon change. From this, they managed Cartesian graphs representing changes in position, therefore, achieved an overall view of the graph. However, the local view only indicates specific events in the problem situation, using graphic and verbal expressions to represent movement. This view does not enable us to identify what happens on the graph when the movement characteristics change based on possible paths in the person’s walking speed.

Keywords: cartesian graphs, higher education, movement modeling, problem solving

Procedia PDF Downloads 218

Authors: Makenzy Lee Gilbert

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This literature review explores the role of attractor neural networks (ANNs) in modeling psychological processes in artificial and biological systems. By synthesizing research from dynamical systems theory, psychology, and computational neuroscience, the review provides an overview of the current understanding of ANN function in memory formation, reinforcement, retrieval, and forgetting. Key mathematical foundations, including dynamical systems theory and energy functions, are discussed to explain the behavior and stability of these networks. The review also examines empirical applications of ANNs in cognitive processes such as semantic memory and episodic recall, as well as highlighting the hippocampus's role in pattern separation and completion. The review addresses challenges like catastrophic forgetting and noise effects on memory retrieval. By identifying gaps between theoretical models and empirical findings, it highlights the interdisciplinary nature of ANN research and suggests future exploration areas.

Keywords: attractor neural networks, connectionism, computational modeling, cognitive neuroscience

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Authors: Srinivas Peri, Siva Abhishek Sirivella, Tejaswini Kallakuri, Uzair Ahmad

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Effective traffic management and infrastructure planning are crucial for the development of smart cities and intelligent transportation systems. This study addresses the challenge of data scarcity by generating realistic synthetic traffic data using the PeMS-Bay dataset, improving the accuracy and reliability of predictive modeling. Advanced synthetic data generation techniques, including TimeGAN, GaussianCopula, and PAR Synthesizer, are employed to produce synthetic data that replicates the statistical and structural characteristics of real-world traffic. Future integration of Spatial-Temporal Generative Adversarial Networks (ST-GAN) is planned to capture both spatial and temporal correlations, further improving data quality and realism. The performance of each synthetic data generation model is evaluated against real-world data to identify the best models for accurately replicating traffic patterns. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are utilized to model and predict complex temporal dependencies within traffic patterns. This comprehensive approach aims to pinpoint areas with low vehicle counts, uncover underlying traffic issues, and inform targeted infrastructure interventions. By combining GAN-based synthetic data generation with LSTM-based traffic modeling, this study supports data-driven decision-making that enhances urban mobility, safety, and the overall efficiency of city planning initiatives.

Keywords: GAN, long short-term memory, synthetic data generation, traffic management

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Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: early warning system, knowledge management, market prediction, topic modeling.

Procedia PDF Downloads 338

Authors: Taehyun Kim, Hyunjoo Park, Taehyun Kim

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Since the rapid economic development, Korea has recently entered a period of low growth due to population decline and aging. Due to the urbanization around the metropolitan area and the hollowing of local cities, the ecological capacity of a city is decreasing while ecological footprints are increasing, requiring a compact space plan for maintaining urban functions. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between urban spatial structure and residents' ecological footprints for sustainable spatial planning. To do this, we try to analyze the relationship between intra-urban spatial structure, such as net/gross density and service accessibility, and resident ecological footprints of food, housing, transportation, goods and services through survey and structural equation modeling. The results of the study will be useful in establishing an implementation plan for sustainable development goals (SDGs), especially for sustainable cities and communities (SDG 11) and responsible consumption and production (SDG 12) in the future.

Keywords: ecological footprint, structural equation modeling, survey, sustainability, urban spatial structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Arun Goel

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Prediction of maximum local scour is necessary for the safety and economical design of the bridges. A number of equations have been developed over the years to predict local scour depth using laboratory data and a few pier equations have also been proposed using field data. Most of these equations are empirical in nature as indicated by the past publications. In this paper, attempts have been made to compute local depth of scour around bridge pier in dimensional and non-dimensional form by using linear regression, simple regression and SVM (Poly and Rbf) techniques along with few conventional empirical equations. The outcome of this study suggests that the SVM (Poly and Rbf) based modeling can be employed as an alternate to linear regression, simple regression and the conventional empirical equations in predicting scour depth of bridge piers. The results of present study on the basis of non-dimensional form of bridge pier scour indicates the improvement in the performance of SVM (Poly and Rbf) in comparison to dimensional form of scour.

Keywords: modeling, pier scour, regression, prediction, SVM (Poly and Rbf kernels)

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Authors: Anwar Elsadat Elmahal, Ahmed Abdalla

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The population in Sudan has recently grown to a significant level, Khartoum city the capital has the major portion of this growth. Khartoum is separated by three Niles and linked by eight bridges to Khartoum North and Omdurman. The construction of these bridges disrupted the natural flow of water and sediments which will consequently be reflected on the geomorphological settings of fluvial islands including erosion and sedimentation patterns. The objective of this study is to monitor and assess the development of fluvial islands in Khartoum State up to Sabaloka Gorge using Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques. Landsat Images captured during the period from 1975-2015 with standard false color and standardized 30 m resolution were found useful in understanding the impacts of bridges on disrupting the fluvial cycle. Consequently, the rates, trends of erosions and deposition, and the development of fluvial islands are explained. GIS provides the-state-of-the-art tools in mapping, delineating the fluvial islands during different periods and in quantifying the changes that occurred to fluvial islands as well as creating the geographic databases for the Islands in Khartoum State. It was found that, the developments, shapes and sizes of the islands are directly affected by the construction of bridges, specifically in the Nile River from Tutti Island to Sabaloka gorge.

Keywords: fluvial islands, fluvial cycle, GIS and remote Sensing, Khartoum State, landsat, Sabaloka Gorge

Procedia PDF Downloads 387

Authors: Dan Geneau, Mary Claire Geneau, Seth Lenetsky, Ming -Chang Tsai, Marc Klimstra

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Introduction— Horizontal force-velocity profiling (HFVP) involves modeling an athletes linear sprint kinematics to estimate valuable maximum force and velocity metrics. This approach to performance modeling has been used in field-based team sports and has recently been introduced to ice-hockey as a forward skating performance assessment. While preliminary data has been collected on ice, distance constraints of the on-ice test restrict the ability of the athletes to reach their maximal velocity which result in limits of the model to effectively estimate athlete performance. This is especially true of more elite athletes. This report explores whether athletes on-ice are able to reach a velocity plateau similar to what has been seen in overground trials. Fourteen male Major Junior ice-hockey players (BW= 83.87 +/- 7.30 kg, height = 188 ± 3.4cm cm, age = 18 ± 1.2 years n = 14) were recruited. For on-ice sprints, participants completed a standardized warm-up consisting of skating and dynamic stretching and a progression of three skating efforts from 50% to 95%. Following the warm-up, participants completed three on ice 45m sprints, with three minutes of rest in between each trial. For overground sprints, participants completed a similar dynamic warm-up to that of on-ice trials. Following the warm-up participants completed three 40m overground sprint trials. For each trial (on-ice and overground), radar was used to collect instantaneous velocity (Stalker ATS II, Texas, USA) aimed at the participant’s waist. Sprint velocities were modelled using custom Python (version 3.2) script using a mono-exponential function, similar to previous work. To determine if on-ice tirals were achieving a maximum velocity (plateau), minimum acceleration values of the modeled data at the end of the sprint were compared (using paired t-test) between on-ice and overground trials. Significant differences (P<0.001) between overground and on-ice minimum accelerations were observed. It was found that on-ice trials consistently reported higher final acceleration values, indicating a maximum maintained velocity (plateau) had not been reached. Based on these preliminary findings, it is suggested that reliable HFVP metrics cannot yet be collected from all ice-hockey populations using current methods. Elite male populations were not able to achieve a velocity plateau similar to what has been seen in overground trials, indicating the absence of a maximum velocity measure. With current velocity and acceleration modeling techniques, including a dependency of a velocity plateau, these results indicate the potential for error in on-ice HFVP measures. Therefore, these findings suggest that a greater on-ice sprint distance may be required or the need for other velocity modeling techniques, where maximal velocity is not required for a complete profile.   

Keywords: ice-hockey, sprint, skating, power

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Authors: Adrian O'Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

Abstract:

Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient

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Authors: Ronit Chakraborty, Sugata Banerji

Abstract:

There has been a marked increase in the reported prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) among children in the US over the past two decades. This research has analyzed the growth in state-level ASD prevalence against 45 different potentially explanatory factors, including socio-economic, demographic, healthcare, public policy, and political factors. The goal was to understand if these factors have adequate predictive power in modeling the differential growth in ASD prevalence across various states and if they do, which factors are the most influential. The key findings of this study include (1) the confirmation that the chosen feature set has considerable power in predicting the growth in ASD prevalence, (2) the identification of the most influential predictive factors, (3) given the nature of the most influential predictive variables, an indication that a considerable portion of the reported ASD prevalence differentials across states could be attributable to over and under diagnosis, and (4) identification of Florida as a key outlier state pointing to a potential under-diagnosis of ASD there.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, clustering, machine learning, predictive modeling

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Authors: Youb Said, Fourar Ali

Abstract:

To describe the influence of bottom roughness on the free surface flows by numerical modeling, a two-dimensional model was developed. The equations of continuity and momentum (Naviers Stokes equations) are solved by the finite volume method. We considered a turbulent flow in an open channel with a bottom roughness. For our simulations, the K-ε model was used. After setting the initial and boundary conditions and solve the equations set, we were able to achieve the following results: vortex forming in the hollow causing substantial energy dissipation in the obstacle areas that form the bottom roughness. The comparison of our results with experimental ones shows a good agreement in terms of the results in the rough area. However, in other areas, differences were more or less important. These differences are in areas far from the bottom, especially the free surface area just after the bottom. These disagreements are probably due to experimental constants used by the k-ε model.

Keywords: modeling, free surface flow, turbulence, bottom roughness, finite volume, K-ε model, energy dissipation

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Authors: Adinarayana Badveeti, Mohammad Shafi Mir

Abstract:

In Srinagar city, in India, road safety is an important aspect that creates ecological balance and social well being. A road accident creates a situation that leaves behind distress, sorrow, and sufferings. Therefore identification of causes of road accidents becomes highly essential for adopting necessary preventive measures against a critical event. The damage created by road accidents to large extent is unrepairable and therefore needs attention to eradicate this continuously increasing trend of awful 'epidemic'. Road accident in India is among the highest in the world, with at least approximately 142.000 people killed each year on the road. Kashmir region is an ecologically sensitive place but lacks necessary facilities and infrastructure regarding road transportation, ultimately resulting in the critical event-road accidents creating a major problem for common people in the region. The objective of this project is to study the safety aspect of Srinagar City and also model the accidents with different aspect that causes accidents and also to suggest the possible remedies for lessening/eliminating the road accidents.

Keywords: road safety, road accident, road infrastructure, accident modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 256