Search results for: procedural modelling

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

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Authors: Giuliano Raimondo, Jörg Wangemann, Peer Drechsel

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In systems development involving Fuel Cells generators, it is important to have from an early stage of the project a dynamic model for the electrical behavior of the stack to be shared between involved development parties. It allows independent and early design and tests of fuel cell related power electronic. This paper presents an empirical Fuel Cell system model derived from characterization tests on a real system. Moreover, it is illustrated how the obtained model is used to build and validate a real-time Fuel Cell system emulator which is used for aerospace electrical integration testing activities.

Keywords: fuel cell, modelling, real time emulation, testing

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Authors: Stephanie Watson, Fabrice Stephenson, Conrad Pilditch, Carolyn Lundquist

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Spatial data detailing both the distribution and density of functionally important marine species are needed to inform management decisions. Species distribution models (SDMs) have proven helpful in this regard; however, models often focus only on species occurrences derived from spatially expansive datasets and lack the resolution and detail required to inform regional management decisions. Boosted regression trees (BRT) were used to produce high-resolution SDMs (250 m) at two spatial scales predicting probability of occurrence, abundance (count per sample unit), density (count per km2) and uncertainty for seven coastal seafloor taxa that vary in habitat usage and distribution to examine prediction differences and implications for coastal management. We investigated if small scale regionally focussed models (82,000 km2) can provide improved predictions compared to data-rich national scale models (4.2 million km2). We explored the variability in predictions across model type (occurrence vs abundance) and model scale to determine if specific taxa models or model types are more robust to geographical variability. National scale occurrence models correlated well with broad-scale environmental predictors, resulting in higher AUC (Area under the receiver operating curve) and deviance explained scores; however, they tended to overpredict in the coastal environment and lacked spatially differentiated detail for some taxa. Regional models had lower overall performance, but for some taxa, spatial predictions were more differentiated at a localised ecological scale. National density models were often spatially refined and highlighted areas of ecological relevance producing more useful outputs than regional-scale models. The utility of a two-scale approach aids the selection of the most optimal combination of models to create a spatially informative density model, as results contrasted for specific taxa between model type and scale. However, it is vital that robust predictions of occurrence and abundance are generated as inputs for the combined density model as areas that do not spatially align between models can be discarded. This study demonstrates the variability in SDM outputs created over different geographical scales and highlights implications and opportunities for managers utilising these tools for regional conservation, particularly in data-limited environments.

Keywords: Benthic ecology, spatial modelling, multi-scalar modelling, marine conservation.

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Authors: Shadan Dwairi

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Defining proper requirements is one of the key factors for a successful construction projects. Although there have been many attempts put forward in assist in identifying requirements, but still this area is under developed. In Buildings Information Modelling (BIM) projects. The Employer Information Requirements (EIR) is the fundamental requirements document and a necessary ingredient in achieving a successful BIM project. The provision on full and clear EIR is essential to achieving BIM Level-2. As Defined by PAS 1192-2, EIR is a “pre-tender document that sets out the information to be delivered and the standards and processes to be adopted by the supplier as part of the project delivery process”. It also notes that “EIR should be incorporated into tender documentation to enable suppliers to produce an initial BIM Execution Plan (BEP)”. The importance of effective definition of EIR lies in its contribution to a better productivity during the construction process in terms of cost and time, in addition to improving the quality of the built asset. Proper and clear information is a key aspect of the EIR, in terms of the information it contains and more importantly the information the client receives at the end of the project that will enable the effective management and operation of the asset, where typically about 60%-80% of the cost is spent. This paper reports on the research done in developing the Ontology-based tool for Employer Information Requirements (OntEIR). OntEIR has proven the ability to produce a full and complete set of EIRs, which ensures that the clients’ information needs for the final model delivered by BIM is clearly defined from the beginning of the process. It also reports on the work being done into transforming OntEIR into a smart tool for Defining Employer Information Requirements (smartEIR). smartEIR transforms the OntEIR tool into enabling it to develop custom EIR- tailored for the: Project Type, Project Requirements, and the Client Capabilities. The initial idea behind smartEIR is moving away from the notion “One EIR fits All”. smartEIR utilizes the links made in OntEIR and creating a 3D matrix that transforms it into a smart tool. The OntEIR tool is based on the OntEIR framework that utilizes both Ontology and the Decomposition of Goals to elicit and extract the complete set of requirements needed for a full and comprehensive EIR. A new ctaegorisation system for requirements is also introduced in the framework and tool, which facilitates the understanding and enhances the clarification of the requirements especially for novice clients. Findings of the evaluation of the tool that was done with experts in the industry, showed that the OntEIR tool contributes towards effective and efficient development of EIRs that provide a better understanding of the information requirements as requested by BIM, and support the production of a complete BIM Execution Plan (BEP) and a Master Information Delivery Plan (MIDP).

Keywords: building information modelling, employer information requirements, ontology, web-based, tool

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Authors: Balasooriya B. M. C. M., Sujeeva N., Thowfeek Z., Siddiqa Omo, Liyanagunawardana J. E., Jayawardana Saiu, Manathunga S. S., Katulanda G. W.

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Introduction and objectives: Adrenal venous sampling (AVS) is the gold standard to discriminate unilateral primary aldosteronism (UPA) from bilateral disease (BPA). AVS is technically demanding and only performed in a limited number of centers worldwide. To the best of our knowledge, Except for one study conducted in India, no other research studies on this area have been conducted in South Asia. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of AVS in the management of primary aldosteronism. Methods: A total of 32 patients who underwent AVS at the National Hospital of Sri Lanka from April 2021 to April 2023 were enrolled. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were obtained retrospectively. A procedure was considered successful when adequate cannulation of both adrenal veins was demonstrated. Cortisol gradient across the adrenal vein (AV) and the peripheral vein was used to establish the success of venous cannulation. Lateralization was determined by the aldosterone gradient between the two sides. Continuous and categorical variables were summarized with mean, SD, and proportions, respectively. The mean and standard deviation of the contralateral suppression index (CSI) were estimated with an intercept-only Bayesian inference model. Results: Of the 32 patients, the average age was 52.47 +26.14 and 19 (59.4%) were males. Both AVs were successfully cannulated in 12 (37.5%). Among them, lateralization was demonstrated in 11(91.7%), and one was diagnosed as a bilateral disease. There were no total failures. Right AV cannulation was unsuccessful in 18 (56.25%), of which lateralization was demonstrated in 9 (50%), and others were inconclusive. Left AV cannulation was unsuccessful only in 2 (6.25%); one was lateralized, and the other remained inconclusive. The estimated mean of the CSI was 0.33 (89% credible interval 0.11-0.86). Seven patients underwent unilateral adrenalectomy and demonstrated significant improvement in blood pressure during follow-up. Two patients await surgery. Others were treated medically. Conclusions: Despite failure due to procedural difficulties, AVS remained useful in the management of patients with PA. Moreover, the success of the procedure needs experienced hands and advanced equipment to achieve optimal outcomes in PA.

Keywords: adrenal venous sampling, lateralization, contralateral suppression index, primary aldosteronism

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Authors: Nima E. Gorji

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The performance and characteristics of a hybrid heterojunction single-walled carbon nanotube and GaAs solar cell is modelled and numerically simulated using AMPS-1D device simulation tool. The device physics and performance parameters with different junction parameters are analysed. The results suggest that the open-circuit voltage changes very slightly by changing the work function, acceptor and donor density while the other electrical parameters reach to an optimum value. Increasing the concentration of a discrete defect density in the absorber layer decreases the electrical parameters. The current-voltage characteristics, quantum efficiency, band gap and thickness variation of the photovoltaic response will be quantitatively considered.

Keywords: carbon nanotube, GaAs, hybrid solar cell, AMPS-1D modelling

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Authors: Agboka Komi Mensah, John Odindi, Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman, Onisimo Mutanga, Henri Ez Tonnang

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Ecosystems are networks of organisms and populations that form a community of various species interacting within their habitats. Such habitats are defined by abiotic and biotic conditions that establish the initial limits to a population's growth, development, and reproduction. The habitat’s conditions explain the context in which species interact to access resources such as food, water, space, shelter, and mates, allowing for feeding, dispersal, and reproduction. Dispersal is an essential life-history strategy that affects gene flow, resource competition, population dynamics, and species distributions. Despite the importance of dispersal in population dynamics and survival, understanding the mechanism underpinning the dispersal of organisms remains challenging. For instance, when an organism moves into an ecosystem for survival and resource competition, its progression is highly influenced by extrinsic factors such as its physiological state, climatic variables and ability to evade predation. Therefore, greater spatial detail is necessary to understand organism dispersal dynamics. Understanding organisms dispersal can be addressed using empirical and mechanistic modelling approaches, with the adopted approach depending on the study's purpose Cellular automata (CA) is an example of these approaches that have been successfully used in biological studies to analyze the dispersal of living organisms. Cellular automata can be briefly described as occupied cells by an individual that evolves based on proper decisions based on a set of neighbours' rules. However, in the ambit of modelling individual organisms dispersal at the landscape scale, we lack user friendly tools that do not require expertise in mathematical models and computing ability; such as a visual analytics framework for tracking and forecasting the dispersal behaviour of organisms. The term "visual analytics" (VA) describes a semiautomated approach to electronic data processing that is guided by users who can interact with data via an interface. Essentially, VA converts large amounts of quantitative or qualitative data into graphical formats that can be customized based on the operator's needs. Additionally, this approach can be used to enhance the ability of users from various backgrounds to understand data, communicate results, and disseminate information across a wide range of disciplines. To support effective analysis of the dispersal of organisms at the landscape scale, we therefore designed Pydisp which is a free visual data analytics tool for spatiotemporal dispersal modeling built in Python. Its user interface allows users to perform a quick and interactive spatiotemporal analysis of species dispersal using bioecological and climatic data. Pydisp enables reuse and upgrade through the use of simple principles such as Fuzzy cellular automata algorithms. The potential of dispersal modeling is demonstrated in a case study by predicting the dispersal of Fopius arisanus (Sonan), endoparasitoids to control Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Kenya. The results obtained from our example clearly illustrate the parasitoid's dispersal process at the landscape level and confirm that dynamic processes in an agroecosystem are better understood when designed using mechanistic modelling approaches. Furthermore, as demonstrated in the example, the built software is highly effective in portraying the dispersal of organisms despite the unavailability of detailed data on the species dispersal mechanisms.

Keywords: cellular automata, fuzzy logic, landscape, spatiotemporal

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Authors: Paul Campbell, Nicholas Biddle

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There is a complex, endogenous relationship between individual circumstances, attitudes, and behaviour. This study uses longitudinal panel data to assess changes in social and political attitudes over a 7-year period. Attitudes are captured with the question 'what is the most important issue facing Australia today', collected at multiple time points in a longitudinal survey of 2200 Australians. Consistency of attitudes, and factors predicting change over time, are assessed. The consistency of responses has methodological implications for data collection, specifically how often such questions ought to be asked of a population. When change in attitude is observed, this study assesses the extent to which individual demographic characteristics, personality traits, and broader societal events predict change.

Keywords: attitudes, longitudinal survey analysis, personality, social values

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Authors: Sh. Mirhosseini, Y. Haghighatfar, M. Sedighi

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Forced vibration problem of a delaminated beam made of fiber metal laminates is studied in this paper. Firstly, a delamination is considered to divide the beam into four sections. The classic beam theory is assumed to dominate each section. The layers on two sides of the delamination are constrained to have the same deflection. This hypothesis approves the conditions of compatibility as well. Consequently, dynamic response of the beam is obtained by the means of differential transform method (DTM). In order to verify the correctness of the results, a model is constructed using commercial software ABAQUS 6.14. A linear spring with constant stiffness takes the effect of contact between delaminated layers into account. The attained semi-analytical outcomes are in great agreement with finite element analysis.

Keywords: delamination, forced vibration, finite element modelling, natural frequency

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Authors: Yohanes Chekol Malede

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σ-phase has negative effects on the corrosion responses and the mechanical properties of steels. The growth of σ-phase in the austenite matrix of AISI 347H FG steel was simulated using DICTRA software using CALPHAD method. The simulation work included the influence of both volume diffusion and grain boundary diffusion. The simulation results showed a good agreement with the experimental findings. The simulation results revealed a Cr-depleted and a Ni-enriched σ-phase/austenite interface. Effects of temperature, grain size, and composition of alloying elements on the growth kinetics of σ-phase were assessed. The simulated results were fitted to the JMAK equation and a good correlation was obtained.

Keywords: AISI 347H FG austenitic steel, CALPHAD, sigma phase, microstructure evolution

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Authors: Rohit Mittal, Bright Keswani, Amit Mithal

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This paper provides a sense about the application of computational intelligence techniques used to develop computer games, especially car racing. For the deep sense and knowledge of artificial intelligence, this paper is divided into various sections that is optimization, imitation, innovation and combining approach of optimization and imitation. This paper is mainly concerned with combining approach which tells different aspects of using fitness measures and supervised learning techniques used to imitate aspects of behavior. The main achievement of this paper is based on modelling player behaviour and evolving new game content such as racing tracks as single car racing on single track.

Keywords: evolution algorithm, genetic, optimization, imitation, racing, innovation, gaming

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Authors: N. Sopipan

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In this paper, we study of rainfall time series of weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand using various statistical methods enabled to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. ARIMA and Holt-Winter models based on exponential smoothing were built. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore, could give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for proper planning of agriculture, drainage system and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We found the best perform for forecasting is ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, exponential smoothing, Holt-Winter model

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Authors: Lim Yi Wei

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Structural equation modelling (SEM) is well-known in statistics due to its flexibility and accessibility. It plays an increasingly important role in the development of the education field. The number of research publications using SEM in education has increased in recent decades. However, there is a lack of scientific review conducted on SEM in education. The purpose of this study is to investigate research trends related to SEM in education. The researcher will use Vosviewer, Datawrapper, and SciMAT to do bibliometric analysis on 5549 papers that have been published in the Scopus database in the last five years. The result will show the publication trends of the most cited documents, the top contributing authors, countries, institutions, and journals in the research field. It will also look at how they relate to each other in terms of co-citation, collaboration, and co-occurrence of keywords. This study will benefit researchers and practitioners by identifying research trends and the current state of SEM in education.

Keywords: structural equation modeling, education, bibliometric analysis, Vosviewer

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Authors: Alok Kumar Routa, Priya Ranjan Mohanty

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Complex seismic signatures are generated due to the complexity of the subsurface which is difficult to interpret. In the present study, an attempt has been made to model the complex subsurface using the Ray tracing modeling technique. Add to this, for the imaging of these geological features, Kirchhoff’s prestack depth migration is applied over the synthetic common shot gather dataset. It is found that the Kirchhoff’s migration technique in addition with the Ray tracing modeling concept has the flexibility towards the imaging of various complex geology which gives satisfactory results with proper delineation of the reflectors at their respective true depth position. The entire work has been carried out under the MATLAB environment.

Keywords: Kirchhoff's migration, Prestack depth migration, Ray tracing modelling, velocity model

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Authors: D. B. Gohil

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Closed die forging is a very complex process, and measurement of actual forces for real material is difficult and time consuming. Hence, the modelling technique has taken the advantage of carrying out the experimentation with the proper model material which needs lesser forces and relatively low temperature. The results of experiments on the model material then may be correlated with the actual material by using the theory of similarity. There are several methods available to resolve the complexity involved in the closed die forging process. Finite Element Method (FEM) and Finite Difference Method (FDM) are relatively difficult as compared to the slab method. The slab method is very popular and very widely used by the people working on shop floor because it is relatively easy to apply and reasonably accurate for most of the common forging load requirement computations.

Keywords: experimentation, forging, process modeling, strain distribution

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Authors: Juraj Beniak, Ľubomír Šooš, Peter Križan, Miloš Matúš

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Within Rapid Prototyping technologies are used many types of materials. Many of them are recyclable but there are still as plastic like, so practically they do not degrade in the landfill. Polylactic acid (PLA) is one of the special plastic materials which are biodegradable and also available for 3D printing within Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM) technology. The question is, if the mechanical properties of produced models are comparable to similar technical plastic materials which are usual for prototype production. Presented paper shows the experiments results for tensile strength measurements for specimens prepared with different 3D printer settings and model orientation. Paper contains also the comparison of tensile strength values with values measured on specimens produced by conventional technologies as injection moulding.

Keywords: 3D printing, biodegradable plastic, fused deposition modeling, PLA plastic, rapid prototyping

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Authors: Alexander P. Vazhenin, Mikhail M. Lavrentiev, Alexey A. Romanenko, Pavel V. Tatarintsev

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One of the problems obstructing effective tsunami modelling is the lack of information about initial wave shape at source. The existing methods; geological, sea radars, satellite images, contain an important part of uncertainty. Therefore, direct measurement of tsunami waves obtained at the deep water bottom peruse recorders is also used. In this paper we propose a new method to reconstruct the initial sea surface displacement at tsunami source by the measured signal (marigram) approximation with the help of linear combination of synthetic marigrams from the selected set of unit sources, calculated in advance. This method has demonstrated good precision and very high performance. The mathematical model and results of numerical tests are here described.

Keywords: numerical tests, orthogonal decomposition, Tsunami Initial Sea Surface Displacement

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Authors: Johnstone Walubengo Wangusi

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Geotechnical engineering is a multidisciplinary field that encompasses the study of soil, rock, and groundwater properties and their interactions with civil engineering structures. This research paper provides an in-depth overview of geotechnical engineering, covering its fundamental principles, applications in civil infrastructure projects, and the challenges faced by practitioners in the field. Through a comprehensive examination of soil mechanics, foundation design, slope stability analysis, and geotechnical site investigation techniques, this paper aims to highlight the importance of geotechnical engineering in ensuring the safety, stability, and sustainability of infrastructure development. Additionally, it discusses emerging trends, innovative technologies, and future directions in geotechnical engineering research and practice.

Keywords: sustainable geotechnical engineering solutions, education and training for future generations geotechnical engineers, integration of geotechnical engineering and structural engineering, use of AI in geotechnical engineering modelling

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Authors: Anupam Saxena, Achin Agrawal, Rishabh Shukla, S. Mandal

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It is quite important that the properties of structural elements do not change significantly before and after cracking, and if they do, it adversely affects the structure. Corrosion in rebars causes cracking in concrete which can lead to the change in properties of beam. In the present study, two RC beams with same flexural strength but with different reinforcement arrangements are considered and modelling of cracks of RC beams has been done at different degrees of corrosion in the case of delamination using boundary conditions of Three Point Bending Test. Finite Element Analysis (FEA) has been done at different degree of corrosion to observe the variation of different parameters like modal frequency, Elasticity and Flexural strength in case of delamination. Also, the comparison between two different RC arrangements is made to conclude which one of them is more suitable.

Keywords: delamination, elasticity, FEA, flexural strength, modal frequency, RC beam

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Authors: Gospel Iyioku, Jana Mazancova, Jiri Hejkrlik

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The “Agricultural Promotion Policy (2016–2020)” represents a strategic initiative by the Nigerian government to address domestic food shortages and the challenges in exporting products at the required quality standards. Hindered by an inefficient system for setting and enforcing food quality standards, coupled with a lack of market knowledge, the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) aims to enhance support for the production and activities of key crops like cashew. By collaborating with farmers, processors, investors, and stakeholders in the cashew sector, the policy seeks to define and uphold high-quality standards across the cashew value chain. Given the challenges and opportunities faced by Nigerian cashew farmers, active participation in cashew marketing groups becomes imperative. These groups serve as essential platforms for farmers to collectively navigate market intricacies, access resources, share knowledge, improve output quality, and bolster their overall bargaining power. Through engagement in these cooperative initiatives, farmers not only boost their economic prospects but can also contribute significantly to the sustainable growth of the cashew industry, fostering resilience and community development. This study explores the perceptions and intentions of farmers regarding their involvement in cashew marketing cooperatives, utilizing an expanded version of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. Drawing insights from a diverse sample of 321 cashew farmers in Southwest Nigeria, the research sheds light on the factors influencing decision-making in cooperative participation. The demographic analysis reveals a diverse landscape, with a substantial presence of middle-aged individuals contributing significantly to the agricultural sector and cashew-related activities emerging as a primary income source for a substantial proportion (23.99%). Employing Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) with Maximum Likelihood Robust (MLR) estimation in R, the research elucidates the associations among latent variables. Despite the model’s complexity, the goodness-of-fit indices attest to the validity of the structural model, explaining approximately 40% of the variance in the intention to join cooperatives. Moral norms emerge as a pivotal construct, highlighting the profound influence of ethical considerations in decision-making processes, while perceived behavioural control presents potential challenges in active participation. Attitudes toward joining cooperatives reveal nuanced perspectives, with strong beliefs in enhanced connections with other farmers but varying perceptions on improved access to essential information. The SEM analysis establishes positive and significant effects of moral norms, perceived behavioural control, subjective norms, and attitudes on farmers’ intention to join cooperatives. The knowledge construct positively affects key factors influencing intention, emphasizing the importance of informed decision-making. A supplementary analysis using partial least squares (PLS) SEM corroborates the robustness of our findings, aligning with covariance-based SEM results. This research unveils the determinants of cooperative participation and provides valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners aiming to empower and support this vital demographic in the cashew industry.

Keywords: marketing cooperatives, theory of planned behaviour, structural equation modelling, cashew farmers

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Authors: Balarabe Nkom, Adam P. R. Taylor, Craig Baguley

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Power Line Communications (PLC) is being employed in existing power systems, despite the infrastructure not being designed with PLC considerations in mind. Given that power transformers can last for decades, the distribution transformer in particular exists as a relic of un-optimized technology. To determine issues that may need to be addressed in subsequent designs of such transformers, it is essential to have a highly accurate transformer model for simulations and subsequent optimization for the PLC environment, with a view to increase data speed, throughput, and efficiency, while improving overall system stability and reliability. This paper reviews various methods currently available for creating transformer models and provides insights into the requirements of each for obtaining high accuracy. The review indicates that a combination of traditional analytical methods using a hybrid approach gives good accuracy at reasonable costs.

Keywords: distribution transformer, modelling, optimization, power line communications

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Authors: Bo Yang, Christopher Monterola

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Urban intersection control without the use of the traffic light has the potential to vastly improve the efficiency of the urban traffic flow. For most proposals in the literature, such lightless intersection control depends on the mass market commercialization of highly intelligent autonomous vehicles (AV), which limits the prospects of near future implementation. We present an efficient lightless intersection traffic control scheme that only requires Level 1 AV as defined by NHTSA. The technological barriers of such lightless intersection control are thus very low. Our algorithm can also accommodate a mixture of AVs and conventional vehicles. We also carry out large scale numerical analysis to illustrate the feasibility, safety and robustness, comfort level, and control efficiency of our intersection control scheme.

Keywords: intersection control, autonomous vehicles, traffic modelling, intelligent transport system

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Authors: Chi Zhang, Hua-Peng Chen

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With the increasingly demanding resources in the word, renewable and clean energy has been considered as an alternative way to replace traditional ones. Thus, one of practical examples for using wind energy is wind turbine, which has gained more attentions in recent research. Like most offshore structures, the blades, which is the most critical components of the wind turbine, will be subjected to millions of loading cycles during service life. To operate safely in marine environments, the blades are typically made from fibre reinforced composite materials to resist fatigue delamination and harsh environment. The fatigue crack development of blades is uncertain because of indeterminate mechanical properties for composite and uncertainties under offshore environment like wave loads, wind loads, and humid environments. There are three main delamination failure modes for composite blades, and the most common failure type in practices is subjected to mixed mode loading, typically a range of opening (mode 1) and shear (mode 2). However, the fatigue crack development for mixed mode cannot be predicted as deterministic values because of various uncertainties in realistic practical situation. Therefore, selecting an effective stochastic model to evaluate the mixed mode behaviour of wind turbine blades is a critical issue. In previous studies, gamma process has been considered as an appropriate stochastic approach, which simulates the stochastic deterioration process to proceed in one direction such as realistic situation for fatigue damage failure of wind turbine blades. On the basis of existing studies, various Paris Law equations are discussed to simulate the propagation of the fatigue crack growth. This paper develops a Paris model with the stochastic deterioration modelling according to gamma process for predicting fatigue crack performance in design service life. A numerical example of wind turbine composite materials is investigated to predict the mixed mode crack depth by Paris law and the probability of fatigue failure by gamma process. The probability of failure curves under different situations are obtained from the stochastic deterioration model for comparisons. Compared with the results from experiments, the gamma process can take the uncertain values into consideration for crack propagation of mixed mode, and the stochastic deterioration process shows a better agree well with realistic crack process for composite blades. Finally, according to the predicted results from gamma stochastic model, assessment strategies for composite blades are developed to reduce total lifecycle costs and increase resistance for fatigue crack growth.

Keywords: Reinforced fibre composite, Wind turbine blades, Fatigue delamination, Mixed failure mode, Stochastic process.

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Authors: Junjun Chen, Yingxiu Li

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The occupational well-being of school principals has played a vital role in the pursuit of individual and school wellness and success. However, principals’ well-being worldwide is under increasing threat because of the challenging and complex nature of their work and growing demands for school standardisation and accountability. Pressure is particularly acute in the post-pandemicfuture as principals attempt to deal with the impact of the pandemic on top of more regular demands. This is particularly true in Hong Kong, as school principals are increasingly wedged between unparalleled political, social, and academic responsibilities. Recognizing the semantic breadth of well-being, scholars have not determined a single, mutually agreeable definition but agreed that the concept of well-being has multiple dimensions across various disciplines. The multidimensional approach promises more precise assessments of the relationships between well-being and other concepts than the ‘affect-only’ approach or other single domains for capturing the essence of principal well-being. The multiple-dimension well-being concept is adopted in this project to understand principal well-being in this study. This study aimed to understand the situation of principal well-being and its influential drivers with a sample of 670 principals from Hong Kong and Mainland China. An online survey was sent to the participants after the breakout of COVID-19 by the researchers. All participants were well informed about the purposes and procedure of the project and the confidentiality of the data prior to filling in the questionnaire. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling performed with Mplus were employed to deal with the dataset. The data analysis procedure involved the following three steps. First, the descriptive statistics (e.g., mean and standard deviation) were calculated. Second, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to trim principal well-being measurement performed with maximum likelihood estimation. Third, structural equation modelling (SEM) was employed to test the influential factors of principal well-being. The results of this study indicated that the overall of principal well-being were above the average mean score. The highest ranking in this study given by the principals was to their psychological and social well-being (M = 5.21). This was followed by spiritual (M = 5.14; SD = .77), cognitive (M = 5.14; SD = .77), emotional (M = 4.96; SD = .79), and physical well-being (M = 3.15; SD = .73). Participants ranked their physical well-being the lowest. Moreover, professional autonomy, supervisor and collegial support, school physical conditions, professional networking, and social media have showed a significant impact on principal well-being. The findings of this study will potentially enhance not only principal well-being, but also the functioning of an individual principal and a school without sacrificing principal well-being for quality education in the process. This will eventually move one step forward for a new future - a wellness society advocated by OECD. Importantly, well-being is an inside job that begins with choosing to have wellness, whilst supports to become a wellness principal are also imperative.

Keywords: well-being, school principals, quantitative, influential factors

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Authors: Azeez Shaik, Yagnik Kalariya, Amit Salvi

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High-performance requirements and emission norms were forcing the automobile industry to opt for lightweight materials which improve the fuel efficiency and absorb energy during crash applications. In such scenario, the woven fabric composites are providing better energy absorption compared to metals. Woven fabric composites have a repetitive unit cell (RUC) and the mechanical properties of these materials are highly dependent on RUC. This work investigates the importance of detailed modelling of the RUC, the size effects associated and the mitigation techniques to avoid them using Finite element analysis approach.

Keywords: repetitive unit cell, representative volume element, size effects, cohesive zone, finite element analysis

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Authors: S.K. Bhandari, E. Veneklaas, L. McCaw, R. Mazanec, K. Whitford, M. Renton

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Eucalyptus marginata, E. diversicolor and Corymbia calophylla form widespread forests in south-west Western Australia (SWWA). These forests have economic and ecological importance, and therefore, tree growth and sustainable management are of high priority. This paper aimed to analyse and model the growth of these species at both stand and individual levels, but this presentation will focus on predicting the growth of E. Marginata at the individual tree level. More specifically, the study wanted to investigate how well individual E. marginata tree growth could be predicted by considering the diameter and height of the tree at the start of the growth period, and whether this prediction could be improved by also accounting for the competition from neighbouring trees in different ways. The study also wanted to investigate how many neighbouring trees or what neighbourhood distance needed to be considered when accounting for competition. To achieve this aim, the Pearson correlation coefficient was examined among competition indices (CIs), between CIs and dbh growth, and selected the competition index that can best predict the diameter growth of individual trees of E. marginata forest managed under different thinning regimes at Inglehope in SWWA. Furthermore, individual tree growth models were developed using simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, and linear mixed effect modelling approaches. Individual tree growth models were developed for thinned and unthinned stand separately. The developed models were validated using two approaches. In the first approach, models were validated using a subset of data that was not used in model fitting. In the second approach, the model of the one growth period was validated with the data of another growth period. Tree size (diameter and height) was a significant predictor of growth. This prediction was improved when the competition was included in the model. The fit statistic (coefficient of determination) of the model ranged from 0.31 to 0.68. The model with spatial competition indices validated as being more accurate than with non-spatial indices. The model prediction can be optimized if 10 to 15 competitors (by number) or competitors within ~10 m (by distance) from the base of the subject tree are included in the model, which can reduce the time and cost of collecting the information about the competitors. As competition from neighbours was a significant predictor with a negative effect on growth, it is recommended including neighbourhood competition when predicting growth and considering thinning treatments to minimize the effect of competition on growth. These model approaches are likely to be useful tools for the conservations and sustainable management of forests of E. marginata in SWWA. As a next step in optimizing the number and distance of competitors, further studies in larger size plots and with a larger number of plots than those used in the present study are recommended.

Keywords: competition, growth, model, thinning

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Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

Abstract:

Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: P. Ravinder Reddy, Chaitanya Vishal Nalli, B. Tulja Lal, Anusha Kankanala

Abstract:

The chassis frame of an automobile with different sections have been considered for different loads. The orthotropic materials are selected to get the stability by varying fiber angle, fiber thickness, laminates, fiber properties, matrix properties and elastic ratios. The geometric model of chassis frame is carried out with parametric modelling approach. The analysis of chassis frame is carried out with ANSYS FEA software. The static and dynamic analysis of chassis frame is carried out by varying geometric parameters, orthotropic properties, materials and various sections. The static and dynamic response is discussed in detail in different sections.

Keywords: chassis frame, dynamic response, geometric model, orthotropic materials

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: Wen-Shai Hung

Abstract:

This paper examines the factors influencing euthanasia issues in Taiwan. The data used is from the 2015 Survey Research on Attitudes towards the Death Penalty and Related Values in Taiwan, which focused on knowledge, attitudes towards the death penalty, and the concepts of social, political, and law values. The sample ages are from 21 to 94. The method used is probit modelling for examining the influences on euthanasia issues in Taiwan. The main empirical results find that older people, persons with higher educational attainment, those who favour abolition of the death penalty and do not oppose divorce, abortion, same-sex relationships, and putting down homeless’ cats or dogs are more likely to approve of the use of euthanasia to end their lives. In contrast, Mainlanders, people who support the death penalty and favour long-term prison sentences are less likely to support the use of euthanasia.

Keywords: euthanasia, homosexual, death penalty, and probit model

Procedia PDF Downloads 364

Authors: Kumaresh Selvakumar, Man Young Kim

Abstract:

Wet scrubbers have found widespread use in cleaning contaminated gas streams because of their ability to remove particulates and based on the applications of scrubbing of marine engine exhaust gases by spraying sea-water. In order to examine the flow characteristics inside the scrubber, the model is designated with flow properties of hot air and water sprayer. The flow dynamics of evaporation of hot air by the injection of water droplets is the key factor considered in this paper. The flow behavior inside the scrubber was investigated from the previous works and to sum up the evaporation rate with respect to the concentration of water droplets are predicted to bring out the competent modelling. The numerical analysis using CFD facilitates in understanding the problem better and empathies the behavior of the model over its entire operating envelope.

Keywords: concentration of water droplets, evaporation rate, scrubber, water sprayer

Procedia PDF Downloads 202