Search results for: fragile States
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3067

Search results for: fragile States

2377 Policies to Reduce the Demand and Supply of Illicit Drugs in the Latin America: 2004 to 2016

Authors: Ana Caroline Ibrahim Lino, Denise Bomtempo Birche de Carvalho

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The background of this research is the international process of control and monitoring of illicit psychoactive substances that has commenced in the early 20th century. This process was intensified with the UN Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs of 1961 and had its culmination in the 1970s with the "War on drugs", a doctrine undertaken by the United States of America. Since then, the phenomenon of drug prohibition has been pushing debates around alternatives of public policies to confront their consequences at a global level and in the specific context of Latin America. Previous research has answered the following key questions: a) With what characteristics and models has the international illicit drug control system consolidated in Latin America with the creation of the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Inter-American Drug Abuse Control Commission (CICAD)? b) What drug policies and programs were determined as guidelines for the member states by the OAS and CICAD? The present paper mainly addresses the analysis of the drug strategies developed by the OAS/CICAD for the Americas from 2004 to 2016. The primary sources have been extracted from the OAS/CICAD documents and reports, listed on the Internet sites of these organizations. Secondary sources refer to bibliographic research on the subject with the following descriptors: illicit drugs, public policies, international organizations, OAS, CICAD, and reducing the demand and supply of illicit drugs. The "content analysis" technique was used to organize the collected material and to choose the axes of analysis. The results show that the policies, strategies, and action plans for Latin America had been focused on anti-drug actions since the creation of the Commission until 2010. The discourses and policies to reduce drug demand and supply were of great importance for solving the problem. However, the real focus was on eliminating the substances by controlling the production, marketing, and distribution of illicit drugs. Little attention was given to the users and their families. The research is of great relevance to the Social Work. The guidelines and parameters of the Social Worker's profession are in line with the need for social, ethical, and political strengthening of any dimension that guarantees the rights of users of psychoactive substances. In addition, it contributed to the understanding of the political, economic, social, and cultural factors that structure the prohibitionism, whose matrix anchors the deprivation of rights and violence.

Keywords: illicit drug policies, international organizations, latin America, prohibitionism, reduce the demand and supply of illicit drugs

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2376 The Design of Safe Spaces in Healthcare Facilities Vulnerable to Tornado Impact in Central US

Authors: Lucy Ampaw-Asiedu, Terri R. Norton

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In the wake of recent disasters happening around the world such as earthquake in Italy (January, 2017); hurricanes in the United States (US) (September 2016 and September 2017); and compounding disasters in Haiti (September 2010 and September 2016); to our best knowledge, never has the world seen the need to work on preemptive rather than reactionary measures to salvage this situation than now. Tornadoes are natural hazards that mostly affect mid-western and central states in the US. Tornadoes, like all natural hazards such as hurricanes, earthquakes, floods and others, are very destructive and result in massive destruction to homes, cause billions of dollars in damage and claims many lives. Healthcare facilities in general are vulnerable to disasters, and therefore, the safety of patients, health workers and those who come in to seek shelter should be a priority. The focus of this study is to assess disaster management measures instituted by healthcare facilities. Thus, the sole aim of the study is to examine the vulnerabilities and the design of safe spaces in healthcare facilities in Central US. Objectives that guide the study are to primarily identify the impacts of tornadoes in hospitals and to assess the structural design or specifications of safe spaces. St. John’s Regional Medical Center, now Mercy Hospital in Joplin, is used as a case study. Preliminary results show that the lateral base shear of the proposed design to be 684.24 ton (1508.49kip) for the safe space. Findings from this work will be used to make recommendations about the design of safe spaces for health care facilities in Central US.

Keywords: disaster management, safe spaces, structural design, tornado, vulnerability

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2375 European Union Health Policy and the Response to COVID-19 Pandemic: Building a European Health Union

Authors: Aikaterini Tsalampouni

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The European Union has long been the most developed model of economic and political integration that has brought a common market, a common currency and a standardization of national policies in certain areas in consistent with EU values and principles. To this direction, there is a parallel process of social integration that effect public policy decisions of member states. Even though social policy, i.e. social protection and moreover healthcare policy, still remains in state's responsibility to develop, EU applies different mechanisms in order to influence health policy systems, since from a more federalist point of view, EU ought to expand its regulatory and legislative roles in as many policy areas as possible. Recently, the pandemic has become a turning point for health care provision and at the same time has also highlighted the need to strengthen the EU’s role in coordinating health care. This paper analyses the EU health policy in general, as well as the response to COVID-19 pandemic with an attempt to identify indications of interaction between EU policies and the promotion of sustainable and resilient health systems. More analytically, the paper investigates the EU binding legal instruments, non-binding legal instruments, monitoring and assessment instruments and instruments for co-financing concerning health care provision in member states and records the evolution of health policies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper concludes by articulating some remarks regarding the improvement of health policy in EU. Since the ability to deal with a pandemic depends on continuous and increased investment in health systems, the involvement of the EU can lead to a policy convergence, necessary for the resilience of the systems, maintaining at the same time, a strong health policy framework in Europe.

Keywords: EU health policy, EU response to COVID-19, European Health Union, health systems in Europe

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2374 The Future of Food and Agriculture in India: Trends and Challenges

Authors: Vishwambhar Prasad Sati

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India’s economy is agriculture dominated. About 70% of the total population depends on practicing agriculture. Out of an estimated 140.3 million ha net cultivated area, 79.44 million ha (57%) is rain-fed, contributing 44% of the total food grain production. Meanwhile, India ranks second and shares 11.3% of the arable land of the world. It means that India has a high potential to harness agricultural resources for present and future food security. However, about 21.9% of people are living below the poverty line, and similarly, a large number of people are deprived or insecure about food. This situation is most critical in rural areas, where about 70% population lives. The study examines the present status, future trends, and challenges of food and agriculture in India. Time series data of the last three decades was gathered from secondary sources on area, production, and yield of crops; irrigated area; production of major crops; area, production, and yield of crops in the major food-producing states of India; food storage and poverty. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation methods, and a regression model. State-level data on area, production, and yield of crops and irrigation facilities were indexed into levels, and the potentials of food production in the major food-producing states were observed. It was noted that the progressive growth rate of food production is higher than the population, which means that food is enough to feed the population; however, it is not accessible to all optimally because of wastage, leakage, lack of food storage, and proper distribution of food. If food is stored and distributed properly, there would not be any food shortage in India, the study revealed.

Keywords: agriculture, food production, population growth, poverty, future trends

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2373 Carlos Guillermo 'Cubena' Wilson's Literary Texts as Platforms for Social Commentary and Critique of Panamanian Society

Authors: Laverne Seales

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When most people think of Panama, they immediately think of the Canal; however, the construction and the people who made it possible are often omitted and seldom acknowledged. The reality is that the construction of this waterway was achieved through forced migration and discriminatory practices toward people of African descent, specifically black people from the Caribbean. From the colonial period to the opening and subsequent operation of the Panama Canal by the United States, this paper goes through the rich layers of Panamanian history to examine the life of Afro-Caribbeans and their descendants in Panama. It also considers the role of the United States in Panama; it explores how the United States in Panama forged a racially complex country that made the integration of Afro-Caribbeans and their descendants difficult. After laying a historical foundation, the exploration of Afro-Caribbean people and Panamanians of Afro-Caribbean descent are analyzed through Afro-Panamanian writer Carlos Guillermo ‘Cubena’ Wilson's novels, short stories, and poetry. This study focuses on how Cubena addresses racism, discrimination, inequality, and social justice issues towards Afro-Caribbeans and their descendants who traveled to Panama to construct the Canal. Content analysis methodology can yield several significant contributions, and analyzing Carlos Guillermo Wilson's literature under this framework allows us to consider social commentary and critique of Panamanian society. It identifies the social issues and concerns of Afro-Caribbeans and people of Afro-Caribbean descent, such as inequality, corruption, racism, political oppression, and cultural identity. Analysis methodology allows us to explore how Cubena's literature engages with questions of cultural identity and belonging in Panamanian society. By examining themes related to race, ethnicity, language, and heritage, this research uncovers the complexities of Panamanian cultural identity, allowing us to interrogate power dynamics and social hierarchies in Panamanian society. Analyzing the portrayal of different social groups, institutions, and power structures helps uncover how power is wielded, contested, and resisted; Cubena's fictional world allows us to see how it functions in Panama. Content analysis methodology also provides for critiquing political systems and governance in Panama. By examining the representation and presentation of political figures, institutions, and events in Cubena's literature, we uncover his commentary on corruption, authoritarianism, governance, and the role of the United States in Panama. Content analysis highlights how Wilson's literature amplifies the voices and experiences of marginalized individuals and communities in Panamanian society. By centering the narratives of Afro-Panamanians and other marginalized groups, this researcher uncovers Cubena's commitment to social justice and inclusion in his writing and helps the reader engage with historical narratives and collective memory in Panama. Overall, analyzing Carlos Guillermo ‘Cubena’ Wilson's literature as a platform for social commentary and critique of Panamanian society using content analysis methodology provides valuable insights into the cultural, social, and political dimensions of Afro-Panamanians during and after the construction of the Panama Canal.

Keywords: Afro-Caribbean, Panama Canal, race, Afro-Panamanian, identity, history

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2372 The Study of Adsorption of RuP onto TiO₂ (110) Surface Using Photoemission Deposited by Electrospray

Authors: Tahani Mashikhi

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Countries worldwide rely on electric power as a critical economic growth and progress factor. Renewable energy sources, often referred to as alternative energy sources, such as wind, solar energy, geothermal energy, biomass, and hydropower, have garnered significant interest in response to the rising consumption of fossil fuels. Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) are a highly promising alternative for energy production as they possess numerous advantages compared to traditional silicon solar cells and thin-film solar cells. These include their low cost, high flexibility, straightforward preparation methodology, ease of production, low toxicity, different colors, semi-transparent quality, and high power conversion efficiency. A solar cell, also known as a photovoltaic cell, is a device that converts the energy of light from the sun into electrical energy through the photovoltaic effect. The Gratzel cell is the initial dye-sensitized solar cell made from colloidal titanium dioxide. The operational mechanism of DSSCs relies on various key elements, such as a layer composed of wide band gap semiconducting oxide materials (e.g. titanium dioxide [TiO₂]), as well as a photosensitizer or dye that absorbs sunlight to inject electrons into the conduction band, the electrolyte utilizes the triiodide/iodide redox pair (I− /I₃−) to regenerate dye molecules and a counter electrode made of carbon or platinum facilitates the movement of electrons across the circuit. Electrospray deposition permits the deposition of fragile, non-volatile molecules in a vacuum environment, including dye sensitizers, complex molecules, nanoparticles, and biomolecules. Surface science techniques, particularly X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, are employed to examine dye-sensitized solar cells. This study investigates the possible application of electrospray deposition to build high-quality layers in situ in a vacuum. Two distinct categories of dyes can be employed as sensitizers in DSSCs: organometallic semiconductor sensitizers and purely organic dyes. Most organometallic dyes, including Ru533, RuC, and RuP, contain a ruthenium atom, which is a rare element. This ruthenium atom enhances the efficiency of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs). These dyes are characterized by their high cost and typically appear as dark purple powders. On the other hand, organic dyes, such as SQ2, RK1, D5, SC4, and R6, exhibit reduced efficacy due to the lack of a ruthenium atom. These dyes appear in green, red, orange, and blue powder-colored. This study will specifically concentrate on metal-organic dyes. The adsorption of dye molecules onto the rutile TiO₂ (110) surface has been deposited in situ under ultra-high vacuum conditions by combining an electrospray deposition method with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) technique examines chemical bonds and interactions between molecules and TiO₂ surfaces. The dyes were deposited at varying times, from 5 minutes to 40 minutes, to achieve distinct layers of coverage categorized as sub-monolayer, monolayer, few layers, or multilayer. Based on the O 1s photoelectron spectra data, it can be observed that the monolayer establishes a strong chemical bond with the Ti atoms of the oxide substrate by deprotonating the carboxylic acid groups through 2M-bidentate bridging anchors. The C 1s and N 1s photoelectron spectra indicate that the molecule remains intact at the surface. This can be due to the existence of all functional groups and a ruthenium atom, where the binding energy of Ru 3d is consistent with Ru2+.

Keywords: deposit, dye, electrospray, TiO₂, XPS

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2371 Impact of Acculturation Stress and Work-Family Conflict on the Health and Wellbeing of African Immigrants in the US: A Case Study of Ghanaian Immigrants

Authors: Rodlyn Remina Hines

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Africans who migrate to the United States (U.S.) go through an acculturation period. When they join the U.S. workforce during the period they are still acquainting to the new geographic area and culture, they may experience work and family conflict in addition to the stressors of acculturation. This study investigated the impact of acculturation stress and work-family conflict on the health and wellbeing of African immigrants in the U.S. using a growing immigrant population. Ghanaian immigrants (n = 100, males= 43%; females= 56%) residing in New York and Massachusetts, United States (U.S.), were recruited via purposive sampling to investigate the role acculturation stress and work-family conflict play on the health and wellbeing of African immigrants in the U.S. Using the Sociocultural theory, three hypotheses were proposed: (1) High acculturation stress will lead to high work-family conflict, (2) High work-family conflict will result in poor health and wellbeing, and (3) Work-family conflict will mediate the relationship between acculturation stress and health and wellbeing. The results fully supported the first hypothesis and partially supported the second and third. High acculturation stress led to high work-family conflict. Although high work-family conflict resulted in poorer health and wellbeing, high family support mediated work-family conflict and health and wellbeing. Participants who reported poor health also reported a lack of family or other support and those who reported strong family or other support also reported excellent health and wellbeing even with high work-family conflict. The latter group did not expect their health and wellbeing to get worse. I draw on these findings to conclude that African immigrants in the U.S. experience significant acculturation stress and work-family conflict resulting in poor health and wellbeing during their acculturation period if there is a lack of family or other support. These findings have implications for practitioners and policymakers.

Keywords: acculturation stress, work-family conflict, Ghanaian immigrants, health and wellbeing

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2370 Energy Transition and Investor-State Disputes: Scientific Knowledge as a Solution to the Burden for Climate Policy-Making

Authors: Marina E. Konstantinidi

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It is now well-established that the fight against climate change and its consequences, which are a threat to mankind and to life on the planet Earth, requires that global temperature rise be kept under 1,5°C. It is also well-established that this requires humanity to put an end to the use of fossil fuels in the next decades, at the latest. However, investors in the fossil energy sector have brought or threatened to bring investment arbitration claims against States which put an end to their activity for the purpose of reaching their climate change policies’ objectives. Examples of such claims are provided by the cases of WMH v. Canada, Lone Pine v. Canada, Uniper v. Netherlands and RWE v. Netherlands. Irrespective of the outcome of the arbitration proceedings, the risk of being ordered to pay very substantial damages may have a ‘chilling effect’ on States, meaning that they may hesitate to implement the energy transition measures needed to fight climate change and its consequences. Although mitigation action is a relatively recent phenomenon, knowledge about the negative impact of fossil fuels has existed for a long time ago. In this paper, it is argued that structured documentation of evidence of knowledge about climate change may influence the adjudication of investment treaty claims and, consequently, affect the content of energy transition regulations that will be implemented. For example, as concerns investors, evidence that change in the regulatory framework towards environmental protection could have been predicted would refute the argument concerning legitimate expectations for legislative stability. By reference to relevant case law, it attempted to explore how pre-existing knowledge about climate change can be used in the adjudication of investor-State disputes and resulting from green energy transition policies.

Keywords: climate change, energy transition, international investment law, knowledge

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2369 Framework for the Assessment of National Systems of Innovation in Biotechnology

Authors: Andrea Schiffauerova, Amnah Alzeyoudi

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This paper studies patterns of innovation within national constitutional context. Its objective is to examine national systems of innovation in biotechnology in six leading innovative countries: the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France and Canada. The framework proposed for this purpose consists of specific factors considered critical for the development of national systems of innovation, which are industry size, innovative activities, area of specialization, industry structure, national policy, the level of government intervention, the stock of knowledge in universities and industries, knowledge transfer from universities to industry and country-specific conditions for start-ups. The paper then uses the framework to provide detailed cross-country comparisons while highlighting particular features of national institutional context which affect the creation and diffusion of scientific knowledge within the system. The study is primarily based on the extensive survey of literature and it is complemented by the quantitative analysis of the patent data extracted from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). The empirical analysis provides numerous insights and greatly complements the data gained from the literature and other sources. The final cross-country comparative analysis identifies three patterns followed by the national innovation systems in the six countries. The proposed cross-country relative positioning analysis may help in drawing policy implications and strategies leading to the enhancement of national competitive advantage and innovation capabilities of nations.

Keywords: comparative analysis, framework, national systems of innovation, patent analysis, United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO)

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2368 The Vulnerability of Climate Change to Farmers, Fishermen and Herdsmen in Nigeria

Authors: Nasiru Medugu Idris

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This research is aimed at assessing the vulnerability of climate change to rural communities (farmers, herdsmen and fishermen) in Nigeria with the view to study the underlying causes and degree of vulnerability to climate change and examine the conflict between farmers and herdsmen as a result of climate change. This research employed the use of quantitative and qualitative means of data gathering techniques as well as physical observations. Six states (Kebbi, Adamawa, Nasarawa, Osun, Ebonyi, and Akwa Ibom) have been selected on the ground that they are key food production areas in the country and are therefore essential to continual food security in the country. So also, they also double as fishing communities in order to aid the comprehensive study of all the effects on climate on farmers and fishermen alike. Community focus group discussions were carried out in the various states for an interactive session and also to have firsthand information on their level of awareness on climate change. Climate data from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency over the past decade were collected for the purpose of analyzing trends in climate. The study observed that the level of vulnerability of rural dwellers most especially farmers, herdsmen and fishermen to climate change is very high due to their socioeconomic, ethnic and historical perspective of their trend. The study, therefore, recommends that urgent step needs to be put in place to help control natural hazards and man-made disasters and serious measures are also needed in order to minimize severe societal, economic and political crises; some of which may either escalate to violent conflicts or could be avoided by efforts of conflict resolution and prevention by the initiation of a process of de-escalation. So this study has recommended the best-fit adaptive and mitigation measures to climate change vulnerability in rural communities of Nigeria.

Keywords: adaptation, farmers, fishermen, herdsmen

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2367 Leading with Skill Development: A Collaborative and Community Based Approach to Ending Open Defecation in Rural India via Computerized Technical Vocational Education and Training

Authors: Srividya Sheshadri, Christopher Coley, Roa. R. Bhavani

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India currently accounts for 60 percent of the open defecation that is practiced globally. While research in the domain of sanitation development makes it apparent that girls and women living in rural India are disproportionately affected, interventions to address this dilemma are lacking. An important but relatively unexplored connection with poor sanitation is that women living in rural India are not only the largest marginalized group without access to adequate sanitation facilities, they also represent a majority of India’s unskilled workers. By training women to build their own toilets, through an approach that has demonstrated success in empowering marginalized communities through technical and vocational education and training (TVET), a collaborative dynamic emerges that can engage entire communities in the movement towards total sanitation. Designed and implemented by Amrita University, this technology-enhanced, community-based approach to skill development, known as Amrita computerized Vocational Education and Training (or Amrita cVET), has begun to show promise in addressing the struggle to end open defecation, and raise sanitation awareness, as well as strengthen personal and community development among women living in rural India. While Amrita cVET project, known as Women Empowerment: Sanitation, is currently in implementation in seven states throughout India, this paper will discuss early stages of the intervention in rural villages within the Indian states of: Karnataka and Goa, where previous sanitation efforts have failed to take hold.

Keywords: community based development, empowerment studies, sanitation in India, computerized vocational training

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2366 Evaluation of National Research Motivation Evolution with Improved Social Influence Network Theory Model: A Case Study of Artificial Intelligence

Authors: Yating Yang, Xue Zhang, Chengli Zhao

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In the increasingly interconnected global environment brought about by globalization, it is crucial for countries to timely grasp the development motivations in relevant research fields of other countries and seize development opportunities. Motivation, as the intrinsic driving force behind actions, is abstract in nature, making it difficult to directly measure and evaluate. Drawing on the ideas of social influence network theory, the research motivations of a country can be understood as the driving force behind the development of its science and technology sector, which is simultaneously influenced by both the country itself and other countries/regions. In response to this issue, this paper improves upon Friedkin's social influence network theory and applies it to motivation description, constructing a dynamic alliance network and hostile network centered around the United States and China, as well as a sensitivity matrix, to remotely assess the changes in national research motivations under the influence of international relations. Taking artificial intelligence as a case study, the research reveals that the motivations of most countries/regions are declining, gradually shifting from a neutral attitude to a negative one. The motivation of the United States is hardly influenced by other countries/regions and remains at a high level, while the motivation of China has been consistently increasing in recent years. By comparing the results with real data, it is found that this model can reflect, to some extent, the trends in national motivations.

Keywords: influence network theory, remote assessment, relation matrix, dynamic sensitivity matrix

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2365 Efficient Chess Board Representation: A Space-Efficient Protocol

Authors: Raghava Dhanya, Shashank S.

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This paper delves into the intersection of chess and computer science, specifically focusing on the efficient representation of chess game states. We propose two methods: the Static Method and the Dynamic Method, each offering unique advantages in terms of space efficiency and computational complexity. The Static Method aims to represent the game state using a fixedlength encoding, allocating 192 bits to capture the positions of all pieces on the board. This method introduces a protocol for ordering and encoding piece positions, ensuring efficient storage and retrieval. However, it faces challenges in representing pieces no longer in play. In contrast, the Dynamic Method adapts to the evolving game state by dynamically adjusting the encoding length based on the number of pieces in play. By incorporating Alive Bits for each piece kind, this method achieves greater flexibility and space efficiency. Additionally, it includes provisions for encoding additional game state information such as castling rights and en passant squares. Our findings demonstrate that the Dynamic Method offers superior space efficiency compared to traditional Forsyth-Edwards Notation (FEN), particularly as the game progresses and pieces are captured. However, it comes with increased complexity in encoding and decoding processes. In conclusion, this study provides insights into optimizing the representation of chess game states, offering potential applications in chess engines, game databases, and artificial intelligence research. The proposed methods offer a balance between space efficiency and computational overhead, paving the way for further advancements in the field.

Keywords: chess, optimisation, encoding, bit manipulation

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2364 The Potential for Maritime Tourism: An African Perspective

Authors: Lynn C. Jonas

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The African continent is rich in coastal history, heritage, and culture, presenting immense potential for the development of maritime tourism. Shipping and its related components are generally associated with the maritime industry, and tourism’s link is to the various forms of nautical tourism. Activities may include cruising, yachting, visits to lighthouses, ports, harbors, and excursions to related sites of cultural, historical, or ecological significance. There have been hundreds of years of explorers leaving a string of shipwrecks along the various coastal areas on the continent in their pursuit of establishing trade routes between Europe, Africa, and the Far East. These shipwrecks present diving opportunities in artificial reefs and marine heritage to be explored in various ways in the maritime cultural zones. Along the South African coast, for example, six Portuguese shipwrecks highlight the Bartolomeu Dias legacy of exploration, and there are a number of warships in Tanzanian waters. Furthermore, decades of African countries being under colonized rule have left the continent with an intricate cultural heritage that is enmeshed in European language architecture interlinked with, in many instances, hard-fought independent littoral states. There is potential for coastal trails to be developed to follow these historical events as, at one point in history, France had colonized 35 African states, and subsequently, 32 African states were colonized by Britain. Countries such as Cameroon still have the legacy of Francophone versus Anglophone as a result of this shift in colonizers. Further to the colonized history of the African continent, there is an uncomfortable heritage of the slave trade history. To a certain extent, these coastal slave trade posts are being considered attractive to a niche tourism audience; however, there is potential for education and interpretive measures to grow this as a tourism product. Notwithstanding these potential opportunities, there are numerous challenges to consider, such as poor maritime infrastructure, maritime security concerns with issues such as piracy, transnational crimes including weapons and migrant smuggling, drug, and human trafficking. These and related maritime issues contribute to the concerns over the porous nature of African ocean gateways, adding to the security concerns for tourists. This theoretical paper will consider these trends and how they may contribute to the growth and development of maritime tourism on the African continent. African considerations of the growth potential of tourism in coastal and marine spaces are needed, particularly with a focus on embracing the continent's tumultuous past as part of its heritage. This has the potential to contribute to the creation of a sense of ownership of opportunities.

Keywords: coastal trade routes, maritime tourism, shipwrecks, slave trade routes

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2363 Annexing the Strength of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) for Real-time TB Reporting Using TB Situation Room (TSR) in Nigeria: Kano State Experience

Authors: Ibrahim Umar, Ashiru Rajab, Sumayya Chindo, Emmanuel Olashore

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INTRODUCTION: Kano is the most populous state in Nigeria and one of the two states with the highest TB burden in the country. The state notifies an average of 8,000+ TB cases quarterly and has the highest yearly notification of all the states in Nigeria from 2020 to 2022. The contribution of the state TB program to the National TB notification varies from 9% to 10% quarterly between the first quarter of 2022 and second quarter of 2023. The Kano State TB Situation Room is an innovative platform for timely data collection, collation and analysis for informed decision in health system. During the 2023 second National TB Testing week (NTBTW) Kano TB program aimed at early TB detection, prevention and treatment. The state TB Situation room provided avenue to the state for coordination and surveillance through real time data reporting, review, analysis and use during the NTBTW. OBJECTIVES: To assess the role of innovative information and communication technology platform for real-time TB reporting during second National TB Testing week in Nigeria 2023. To showcase the NTBTW data cascade analysis using TSR as innovative ICT platform. METHODOLOGY: The State TB deployed a real-time virtual dashboard for NTBTW reporting, analysis and feedback. A data room team was set up who received realtime data using google link. Data received was analyzed using power BI analytic tool with statistical alpha level of significance of <0.05. RESULTS: At the end of the week-long activity and using the real-time dashboard with onsite mentorship of the field workers, the state TB program was able to screen a total of 52,054 people were screened for TB from 72,112 individuals eligible for screening (72% screening rate). A total of 9,910 presumptive TB clients were identified and evaluated for TB leading to diagnosis of 445 TB patients with TB (5% yield from presumptives) and placement of 435 TB patients on treatment (98% percentage enrolment). CONCLUSION: The TB Situation Room (TBSR) has been a great asset to Kano State TB Control Program in meeting up with the growing demand for timely data reporting in TB and other global health responses. The use of real time surveillance data during the 2023 NTBTW has in no small measure improved the TB response and feedback in Kano State. Scaling up this intervention to other disease areas, states and nations is a positive step in the right direction towards global TB eradication.

Keywords: tuberculosis (tb), national tb testing week (ntbtw), tb situation rom (tsr), information communication technology (ict)

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2362 Structure Clustering for Milestoning Applications of Complex Conformational Transitions

Authors: Amani Tahat, Serdal Kirmizialtin

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Trajectory fragment methods such as Markov State Models (MSM), Milestoning (MS) and Transition Path sampling are the prime choice of extending the timescale of all atom Molecular Dynamics simulations. In these approaches, a set of structures that covers the accessible phase space has to be chosen a priori using cluster analysis. Structural clustering serves to partition the conformational state into natural subgroups based on their similarity, an essential statistical methodology that is used for analyzing numerous sets of empirical data produced by Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. Local transition kernel among these clusters later used to connect the metastable states using a Markovian kinetic model in MSM and a non-Markovian model in MS. The choice of clustering approach in constructing such kernel is crucial since the high dimensionality of the biomolecular structures might easily confuse the identification of clusters when using the traditional hierarchical clustering methodology. Of particular interest, in the case of MS where the milestones are very close to each other, accurate determination of the milestone identity of the trajectory becomes a challenging issue. Throughout this work we present two cluster analysis methods applied to the cis–trans isomerism of dinucleotide AA. The choice of nucleic acids to commonly used proteins to study the cluster analysis is two fold: i) the energy landscape is rugged; hence transitions are more complex, enabling a more realistic model to study conformational transitions, ii) Nucleic acids conformational space is high dimensional. A diverse set of internal coordinates is necessary to describe the metastable states in nucleic acids, posing a challenge in studying the conformational transitions. Herein, we need improved clustering methods that accurately identify the AA structure in its metastable states in a robust way for a wide range of confused data conditions. The single linkage approach of the hierarchical clustering available in GROMACS MD-package is the first clustering methodology applied to our data. Self Organizing Map (SOM) neural network, that also known as a Kohonen network, is the second data clustering methodology. The performance comparison of the neural network as well as hierarchical clustering method is studied by means of computing the mean first passage times for the cis-trans conformational rates. Our hope is that this study provides insight into the complexities and need in determining the appropriate clustering algorithm for kinetic analysis. Our results can improve the effectiveness of decisions based on clustering confused empirical data in studying conformational transitions in biomolecules.

Keywords: milestoning, self organizing map, single linkage, structure clustering

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2361 Multiple Negative-Differential Resistance Regions Based on AlN/GaN Resonant Tunneling Structures by the Vertical Growth of Molecular Beam Epitaxy

Authors: Yao Jiajia, Wu Guanlin, LIU Fang, Xue Junshuai, Zhang Jincheng, Hao Yue

Abstract:

Resonant tunneling diodes (RTDs) based on GaN have been extensively studied. However, no results of multiple logic states achieved by RTDs were reported by the methods of epitaxy in the GaN materials. In this paper, the multiple negative-differential resistance regions by combining two discrete double-barrier RTDs in series have been first demonstrated. Plasma-assisted molecular beam epitaxy (PA-MBE) was used to grow structures consisting of two vertical RTDs. The substrate was a GaN-on-sapphire template. Each resonant tunneling structure was composed of a double barrier of AlN and a single well of GaN with undoped 4-nm space layers of GaN on each side. The AlN barriers were 1.5 nm thick, and the GaN well was 2 nm thick. The resonant tunneling structures were separated from each other by 30-nm thick n+ GaN layers. The bottom and top layers of the structures, grown neighboring to the spacer layers that consist of 200-nm-thick n+ GaN. These devices with two tunneling structures exhibited uniform peaks and valleys current and also had two negative differential resistance NDR regions equally spaced in bias voltage. The current-voltage (I-V) characteristics of resonant tunneling structures with diameters of 1 and 2 μm were analyzed in this study. These structures exhibit three stable operating points, which are investigated in detail. This research demonstrates that using molecular beam epitaxy MBE to vertically grow multiple resonant tunneling structures is a promising method for achieving multiple negative differential resistance regions and stable logic states. These findings have significant implications for the development of digital circuits capable of multi-value logic, which can be achieved with a small number of devices.

Keywords: GaN, AlN, RTDs, MBE, logic state

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2360 The Role of Ethical Orientation in Two Countries: Different Outcomes in Perception of Corporate Authenticity and Pro-Firm Behavior Intention

Authors: Kyujin Shim, Soojin Kim

Abstract:

This study identifies and examines the impact of factors on two types of CSR outcomes, consumers’ perceptions of corporate authenticity and their pro-firm behavior intentions. Specifically we investigated the roles of two factors - the consumers’ perceptions of CSR motives of a company (i.e. business-oriented vs. society-oriented) and their ethical orientations (i.e. deontology vs. consequentialism). A web-based survey was conducted in South Korea and the United States respectively to compare the differences of consumer reactions between the two countries. The results show that consumers in two countries behave differently to a firm’s CSR motives. In the United States, when consumers perceive a company’s CSR motive as society-oriented, they are more likely to perceive the company authentic and as a result more likely to engage in pro-firm behavior. However, when consumers’ ethical orientation is considered, only consumers’ consequential orientation led to their pro-firm behavioral intention. In South Korea, interpretation of two different CSR motives affects the valence in consumers’ perceptions of corporate authenticity (i.e. society-oriented CSR motive and positive perception of corporate authenticity vs. business-oriented CSR motive and negative perception of corporate authenticity). Korean consumers also showed same pattern in terms of relationship among society-oriented CSR motive, perception of corporate authenticity, and pro-firm behavior intention. Interestingly, Korean consumers’ consequential orientation affects both their perception of corporate authenticity and their pro-firm behavior intention positively. In addition, there was an interaction effect of business-oriented CSR motive and deontological orientation on perception of corporate authenticity. Theoretical and practical implications will be discussed.

Keywords: corporate authenticity, corporate social responsibility, consequentialist ethics, CSR motives, deontological ethics

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2359 Rare-Earth Ions Doped Lithium Niobate Crystals: Luminescence and Raman Spectroscopy

Authors: Ninel Kokanyan, Edvard Kokanyan, Anush Movsesyan, Marc D. Fontana

Abstract:

Lithium Niobate (LN) is one of the widely used ferroelectrics having a wide number of applications such as phase-conjugation, holographic storage, frequency doubling, SAW sensors. Furthermore, the possibility of doping with rare-earth ions leads to new laser applications. Ho and Tm dopants seem interesting due to laser emission obtained at around 2 µm. Raman spectroscopy is a powerful spectroscopic technique providing a possibility to obtain a number of information about physicochemical and also optical properties of a given material. Polarized Raman measurements were carried out on Ho and Tm doped LN crystals with excitation wavelengths of 532nm and 785nm. In obtained Raman anti-Stokes spectra, we detect expected modes according to Raman selection rules. In contrast, Raman Stokes spectra are significantly different compared to what is expected by selection rules. Additional forbidden lines are detected. These lines have quite high intensity and are well defined. Moreover, the intensity of mentioned additional lines increases with an increase of Ho or Tm concentrations in the crystal. These additional lines are attributed to emission lines reflecting the photoluminescence spectra of these crystals. It means that in our case we were able to detect, within a very good resolution, in the same Stokes spectrum, the transitions between the electronic states, and the vibrational states as well. The analysis of these data is reported as a function of Ho and Tm content, for different polarizations and wavelengths, of the incident laser beam. Results also highlight additional information about π and σ polarizations of crystals under study.

Keywords: lithium niobate, Raman spectroscopy, luminescence, rare-earth ions doped lithium niobate

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2358 Oral Health Status in Sickle Cell Anemia Subjects

Authors: Surekha Rathod

Abstract:

Sickle cell disease is a vascular disorder characterized by chronic, ongoing organ damage that is punctuated by episodes of acutely painful vascular complications.1 It is the most common genetic blood disorder in the United States, with about 2000 infants being identified through routine blood screenings annually, and an estimated 104,000-138,000 affected individuals living in the United States. Approximately 0.3%-1.3% of African American are affected by Sickle Cell Diseases (SCD).3 The aim of this paper is to present oral health status of patients with SCD. A total of 200 subjects of both sexes in the age group 18- 40 years were included in this study. The subjects were examined and the following indices were recorded • Oral hygiene index – Simplified (OHI-S). • Probing depths (PD). • Clinical Attachment Levels (CAL). • Gingival Index - Loe and Sillness. • Turesky Gillmore Glickman Modification of the Quigley Hein Plaque Index. (1970) • DMFT index. • Sickle Cell Disease Severity Index. A total of 1478 patients were screened of which 200 subjects were found to be diagnosed with SCD by electrophoresis. The study thus, included 200 subjects (111 females & 89 males) diagnosed with Sickle Cell Disease in the age group of 18-40 years. The probing pocket depths (PPD) were measured in millimeters. 36% had PPD in the range of 2-4mm, 48% had PPD in the range of 4-6mm while 16% had PPD of more than 6mm. Similar results were obtained for the Clinical Attachment Levels (CAL). 29.5 % subjects had CAL 2-4mm, 44.5% had 4-6mm & 26% had CAL 6mm & above. We can thus conclude that although oral health is not a priority for patients with SCD, it is supported by increased plaque accumulation. Because of the chronic anemic state of the patients with SCD, they should be encouraged to pay strict attention to oral hygiene instructions and practice.

Keywords: chronic, genetic, oral, sickle cell disease, vascular

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2357 Autonomous Flight Control for Multirotor by Alternative Input Output State Linearization with Nested Saturations

Authors: Yong Eun Yoon, Eric N. Johnson, Liling Ren

Abstract:

Multirotor is one of the most popular types of small unmanned aircraft systems and has already been used in many areas including transport, military, surveillance, and leisure. Together with its popularity, the needs for proper flight control is growing because in most applications it is required to conduct its missions autonomously, which is in many aspects based on autonomous flight control. There have been many studies about the flight control for multirotor, but there is still room for enhancements in terms of performance and efficiency. This paper presents an autonomous flight control method for multirotor based on alternative input output linearization coupled with nested saturations. With alternative choice of the output of the multirotor flight control system, we can reduce computational cost regarding Lie algebra, and the linearized system can be stabilized with the introduction of nested saturations with real poles of our own design. Stabilization of internal dynamics is also based on the nested saturations and accompanies the determination of part of desired states. In particular, outer control loops involving state variables which originally are not included in the output of the flight control system is naturally rendered through this internal dynamics stabilization. We can also observe that desired tilting angles are determined by error dynamics from outer loops. Simulation results show that in any tracking situations multirotor stabilizes itself with small time constants, preceded by tuning process for control parameters with relatively low degree of complexity. Future study includes control of piecewise linear behavior of multirotor with actuator saturations, and the optimal determination of desired states while tracking multiple waypoints.

Keywords: automatic flight control, input output linearization, multirotor, nested saturations

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2356 The Influence of the Islamic State (IS) on India: Recent Developments and Challenges

Authors: Alvite Singh Ningthoujam

Abstract:

The most recent terror phenomenon, which is also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), or Islamic State (IS), has its influence felt in South Asia. This dreaded Sunni militant group, today, has become a concern in India as well. Already affected by various terror activities in the country, the influence of the IS on the radicalised Muslim youths in India has been watched closely by the security agencies. There had already been a few IS-related incidents in India due to which this issue has emerged as a threat or challenge to India’s internal security. The rapid radicalisation of youths in a few states where there are sizeable Muslim populations has gone, to some extent, in favour of the IS, particularly in the terror outfit’s recruitment process. What has added to the worry of the Indian security agencies is the announcement of the Al-Qaeda leader, Ayman al-Zawahari, of the creation of the Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent. In fact, this is a worrisome factor as both the militant groups, that is, al-Qaeda and ISIS, have a similar objective to target India and to turn this South Asian country as one of the recruiting grounds for extremists. There is also a possibility that an Indian Mujahedeen (IM) man was believed to be instrumental in recruiting for the ISIS poor Muslims in a few Indian states. If this nexus between ISIS and India’s home-grown terror groups manages to establish a robust link, then the headache of combating such amalgamated force will be a hard task for Indian security agencies. In the wake of the above developments, this paper would seek to analyse the developing trend in India in regard to IS. It would also bring out the reasons as to why further penetration of the IS influence on India would be a grave concern in the internal security of the country. The last section of the paper would highlight the steps that have been taken by the Indian government to tackle this menace effectively.

Keywords: India, Islamic State, Muslim, Security

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2355 An Empirical Study of the International Financial Reporting Standards Education in the United States

Authors: Angela McCaskill

Abstract:

Accounting graduates in most United States universities are not being adequately taught International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). As such they are not prepared with the knowledge and skills necessary to remain competitive in international businesses. One of the reasons behind the ill preparation is the lack of specific international accounting instruction available in the U.S. This paper explores the importance of IFRS education through the lenses of graduate accounting majors. The paper specifically explores graduate accounting major’s preparedness in IFRS based on their recent completion of a Master in Accountancy degree where IFRS had been integrated. The data for the study was collected via face-to face and telephone/Skype interviews and questionnaires. After the interview the participants also agreed to answer two supplementary questions. The participants were to determine the amounts that should be reported on the balance sheet under (1) IFRS and (2) U.S. GAAP. These questions intended to test their knowledge of both sets of standards. The sample consisted of on-line and brick and mortar university students enrolled in their graduate program during the period from spring semester 2016 to summer semester 2016. This study shows that a separate course should be devoted to teaching IFRS and convergence related issues. There is a direct correlation between the knowledge level of those students taking an IFRS course and the successful completion of the supplementary questions compared to those who only had IFRS instruction mixed into their U.S. GAAP based instruction. Students who took an international accounting course were better prepared for the IFRS conversion than those who did not have a separate course. Academically, universities need to take a deeper look into the needs of their students and do better at incorporating international standards in their curriculum.

Keywords: accounting education, global accounting standards, international accounting, IFRS and U.S. GAAP convergence, IFRS, U.S. GAAP

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2354 Patrimonial Politics in 21ˢᵗ Century Central Africa, Evolution and Progress

Authors: Collins Nkapnwo Formella

Abstract:

The democratic wave of the 1980s and 1990s brought a lot of hopes to the politics of African states as many nation-states adopted ‘democracy.’ The end of the Cold War ushered in, with a lot of rush, pro-democracy movements, which led to multi-party politics, following constitutional reviews. For the very first time since independence, Africans revolted against personalized dictatorship and adopted the idea of limited office terms for the presidents. This paper dives deep into the history of Africa post-independence with the aim of allowing the readers to understand the nature of the differences in the political setups that currently govern the continent and the central region in particular. Time has proven the euphoria that characterized post-Cold War African politics at least for many countries short-lived, as their leaders were unable to re-design the institutions of governance from the compromise and interest-oriented structures handed down after independence. The result has been that politics in many of the countries have been tailored down along the lines of winner takes all approach, with the accumulation of state power being the sole objective of the leaders. The paper contends that 21ˢᵗ Century African politics is exactly the politics of inclusion/exclusion based on ethnic and interest groups, leading to the flourishing of patrimonial authoritarian regimes. It also puts to the test, whether authoritarian responses to delivering growth (economic, political, social) and peace as has been the model adopted by many leaders is superior compared to democracy. This paper then concludes by adding that the practice of democracy in the Central African region in its current form is inherently flawed from its foundations, thus incapable of rooting out the crises faced in the region.

Keywords: authoritarianism, democracy, development, power, institutions

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2353 Measuring the Likeability of Robots among Seniors: A Field Research

Authors: Balaji Viswanathan, Tim Oates

Abstract:

A number of pilot projects have commenced across the world to use robots for senior care. We aim to measure the likeability of these robots among seniors and help robot designers focus on the features that matter. We built a robot likability score with over 30 parameters and used this to interview 50 seniors in various locations in the United States. This paper presents the results of this field research.

Keywords: HRI, assistive robotics, social robotics, HCI, aging

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2352 Webster´s Spelling Book: A Product of Language-in-Education Policies in the United States in the Early 1800s

Authors: Virginia Andrea Garrido Meirelles

Abstract:

Noah Webster was a lexicographer and a language reformer and is considered the ‘Father of American Scholarship and Education’ because of the exceptional contributions he made as a teacher and grammarian. The goal of this study is to show that the success of his plan can be explained by the fact that it matched the language-in-education policies of his time. To accomplish that goal the present study analyzes the Massachusetts School Laws of 1642, 1647 and 1648 and compares them to the preface of the first edition of The Grammatical Institute of the English Language. The referred laws were three legislative acts enacted in the Massachusetts Colony and replicated almost identically in the other New England colonies. The purpose of those laws was to eradicate pauperism and poverty, on the one side, and to disseminate the idea of right citizenship, on the other. However, until the Declaration of Independence in 1776, all the primers used in the colony were printed in Britain. In 1783, Noah Webster published the first part of his Grammatical Institute of the English Language. In this book, the author states that his goal is to promote the republican principles that guide the civil rights of that time. The material included many texts taken from the Bible to inspire aversion to inadequate behavior and preference for service and good manners. In addition, its goal was to present ‘a new plan of reducing the pronunciation of our language to an easy standard,’ and in that way, create a unified language to abolish ignorance and language corruption. The comparison between the laws and Webster’s Spelling Book shows that the book is the result of the historical and political situation when it was conceived and it satisfied the requirements of the language-in-education policies of the time.

Keywords: American English, language policy, the Massachusetts school laws, webster's spelling book

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2351 Structural Invertibility and Optimal Sensor Node Placement for Error and Input Reconstruction in Dynamic Systems

Authors: Maik Kschischo, Dominik Kahl, Philipp Wendland, Andreas Weber

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Understanding and modelling of real-world complex dynamic systems in biology, engineering and other fields is often made difficult by incomplete knowledge about the interactions between systems states and by unknown disturbances to the system. In fact, most real-world dynamic networks are open systems receiving unknown inputs from their environment. To understand a system and to estimate the state dynamics, these inputs need to be reconstructed from output measurements. Reconstructing the input of a dynamic system from its measured outputs is an ill-posed problem if only a limited number of states is directly measurable. A first requirement for solving this problem is the invertibility of the input-output map. In our work, we exploit the fact that invertibility of a dynamic system is a structural property, which depends only on the network topology. Therefore, it is possible to check for invertibility using a structural invertibility algorithm which counts the number of node disjoint paths linking inputs and outputs. The algorithm is efficient enough, even for large networks up to a million nodes. To understand structural features influencing the invertibility of a complex dynamic network, we analyze synthetic and real networks using the structural invertibility algorithm. We find that invertibility largely depends on the degree distribution and that dense random networks are easier to invert than sparse inhomogeneous networks. We show that real networks are often very difficult to invert unless the sensor nodes are carefully chosen. To overcome this problem, we present a sensor node placement algorithm to achieve invertibility with a minimum set of measured states. This greedy algorithm is very fast and also guaranteed to find an optimal sensor node-set if it exists. Our results provide a practical approach to experimental design for open, dynamic systems. Since invertibility is a necessary condition for unknown input observers and data assimilation filters to work, it can be used as a preprocessing step to check, whether these input reconstruction algorithms can be successful. If not, we can suggest additional measurements providing sufficient information for input reconstruction. Invertibility is also important for systems design and model building. Dynamic models are always incomplete, and synthetic systems act in an environment, where they receive inputs or even attack signals from their exterior. Being able to monitor these inputs is an important design requirement, which can be achieved by our algorithms for invertibility analysis and sensor node placement.

Keywords: data-driven dynamic systems, inversion of dynamic systems, observability, experimental design, sensor node placement

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2350 Bismuth Telluride Topological Insulator: Physical Vapor Transport vs Molecular Beam Epitaxy

Authors: Omar Concepcion, Osvaldo De Melo, Arturo Escobosa

Abstract:

Topological insulator (TI) materials are insulating in the bulk and conducting in the surface. The unique electronic properties associated with these surface states make them strong candidates for exploring innovative quantum phenomena and as practical applications for quantum computing, spintronic and nanodevices. Many materials, including Bi₂Te₃, have been proposed as TIs and, in some cases, it has been demonstrated experimentally by angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES), scanning tunneling spectroscopy (STM) and/or magnetotransport measurements. A clean surface is necessary in order to make any of this measurements. Several techniques have been used to produce films and different kinds of nanostructures. Growth and characterization in situ is usually the best option although cleaving the films can be an alternative to have a suitable surface. In the present work, we report a comparison of Bi₂Te₃ grown by physical vapor transport (PVT) and molecular beam epitaxy (MBE). The samples were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), Atomic force microscopy (AFM), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and ARPES. The Bi₂Te₃ samples grown by PVT, were cleaved in the ultra-high vacuum in order to obtain a surface free of contaminants. In both cases, the XRD shows a c-axis orientation and the pole diagrams proved the epitaxial relationship between film and substrate. The ARPES image shows the linear dispersion characteristic of the surface states of the TI materials. The samples grown by PVT, a relatively simple and cost-effective technique shows the same high quality and TI properties than the grown by MBE.

Keywords: Bismuth telluride, molecular beam epitaxy, physical vapor transport, topological insulator

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2349 Assessment of Pakistan-China Economic Corridor: An Emerging Dynamic of 21st Century

Authors: Naad-E-Ali Sulehria

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Pakistan and china have stepped in a new phase of strengthening fraternity as the dream of economic corridor once discerned by both countries is going to take a pragmatic shape. Pak-China economic corridor an under construction program is termed to be an emerging dynamic of 21st century that anticipates a nexus between Asian continent and Indian Ocean by extending its functions to adjoining East, South, Central and Western Asian regions. The $45.6 billion worth heavily invested megaprojects by China are meant to revive energy sector and building economic infrastructure in Pakistan. Evidently, these projects are a part of ‘southern extension’ of Silk Road economic belt which is going to draw out prominent incentives for both countries particularly bolstering China to acquire influential dominance over the regional trade and beyond. In pursuit to adhere, by these progressive plans both countries have began working on their respective assignments. This article discusses the economical development programs under China’s peripheral diplomacy regarding its region-specific-approach to accumulate trade of Persian Gulf and access the landlocked Central Asian states through Pakistan in a sublimate context to break US encirclement of Asia. Pakistan’s utmost preference to utilize its strategic channel as a trade hub to become an emerging economy and surpass its arch-rival India for strategic concerns is contemplated accordingly. The needs and feasibility of the economic gateway and the dividends it can provide in the contemporary scenario are examined carefully and analysis is drawn upon the future prospects of the Pakistan-China Economic corridor once completed.

Keywords: pak-china economic corridor (PCEC), central asian republic states (CARs), new silk road economic belt, gawadar

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2348 Probabilistic Crash Prediction and Prevention of Vehicle Crash

Authors: Lavanya Annadi, Fahimeh Jafari

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Transportation brings immense benefits to society, but it also has its costs. Costs include such as the cost of infrastructure, personnel and equipment, but also the loss of life and property in traffic accidents on the road, delays in travel due to traffic congestion and various indirect costs in terms of air transport. More research has been done to identify the various factors that affect road accidents, such as road infrastructure, traffic, sociodemographic characteristics, land use, and the environment. The aim of this research is to predict the probabilistic crash prediction of vehicles using machine learning due to natural and structural reasons by excluding spontaneous reasons like overspeeding etc., in the United States. These factors range from weather factors, like weather conditions, precipitation, visibility, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and humidity to human made structures like road structure factors like bump, roundabout, no exit, turning loop, give away, etc. Probabilities are dissected into ten different classes. All the predictions are based on multiclass classification techniques, which are supervised learning. This study considers all crashes that happened in all states collected by the US government. To calculate the probability, multinomial expected value was used and assigned a classification label as the crash probability. We applied three different classification models, including multiclass Logistic Regression, Random Forest and XGBoost. The numerical results show that XGBoost achieved a 75.2% accuracy rate which indicates the part that is being played by natural and structural reasons for the crash. The paper has provided in-deep insights through exploratory data analysis.

Keywords: road safety, crash prediction, exploratory analysis, machine learning

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