Search results for: rainfall threshold
775 Hyper Presidentialism and First Year of the Turkish Type of Presidentialism
Authors: Ahmet Ekinci
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The new government system of Turkey can be described as hyper-presidentialism, this is because the president then becomes the arbiter of all powers. In another word, the power to enact decrees, appoint bureaucrats and judicial officials into offices, and the power to dissolve a parliament belongs solely to the president. As a strong presidency fuse with a disciplined party system as well as concurrent elections and 10 percent electoral threshold, the president possibly poses a great danger to the separation of powers. Additionally, with regards to the presidential term, the president constitutionally holds the power to be elected only for two terms in Turkey. However, Erdoğan and his supporters believe that the 2017 constitutional amendments that changed the system of government have reset the agenda. Thus, the 2017 amendments offered Erdoğan a secret opportunity to join the presidential election race for a third and even a fourth term.Keywords: hyper-presidentialism, Turkish presidentialism, presidential decree, concurrent election, Erdogan’s term limit, Turkish government system
Procedia PDF Downloads 139774 Decentralized Peak-Shaving Strategies for Integrated Domestic Batteries
Authors: Corentin Jankowiak, Aggelos Zacharopoulos, Caterina Brandoni
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In a context of increasing stress put on the electricity network by the decarbonization of many sectors, energy storage is likely to be the key mitigating element, by acting as a buffer between production and demand. In particular, the highest potential for storage is when connected closer to the loads. Yet, low voltage storage struggles to penetrate the market at a large scale due to the novelty and complexity of the solution, and the competitive advantage of fossil fuel-based technologies regarding regulations. Strong and reliable numerical simulations are required to show the benefits of storage located near loads and promote its development. The present study was restrained from excluding aggregated control of storage: it is assumed that the storage units operate independently to one another without exchanging information – as is currently mostly the case. A computationally light battery model is presented in detail and validated by direct comparison with a domestic battery operating in real conditions. This model is then used to develop Peak-Shaving (PS) control strategies as it is the decentralized service from which beneficial impacts are most likely to emerge. The aggregation of flatter, peak- shaved consumption profiles is likely to lead to flatter and arbitraged profile at higher voltage layers. Furthermore, voltage fluctuations can be expected to decrease if spikes of individual consumption are reduced. The crucial part to achieve PS lies in the charging pattern: peaks depend on the switching on and off of appliances in the dwelling by the occupants and are therefore impossible to predict accurately. A performant PS strategy must, therefore, include a smart charge recovery algorithm that can ensure enough energy is present in the battery in case it is needed without generating new peaks by charging the unit. Three categories of PS algorithms are introduced in detail. First, using a constant threshold or power rate for charge recovery, followed by algorithms using the State Of Charge (SOC) as a decision variable. Finally, using a load forecast – of which the impact of the accuracy is discussed – to generate PS. A performance metrics was defined in order to quantitatively evaluate their operating regarding peak reduction, total energy consumption, and self-consumption of domestic photovoltaic generation. The algorithms were tested on load profiles with a 1-minute granularity over a 1-year period, and their performance was assessed regarding these metrics. The results show that constant charging threshold or power are far from optimal: a certain value is not likely to fit the variability of a residential profile. As could be expected, forecast-based algorithms show the highest performance. However, these depend on the accuracy of the forecast. On the other hand, SOC based algorithms also present satisfying performance, making them a strong alternative when the reliable forecast is not available.Keywords: decentralised control, domestic integrated batteries, electricity network performance, peak-shaving algorithm
Procedia PDF Downloads 117773 Early Return to Play in Football Player after ACL Injury: A Case Report
Authors: Nicola Milani, Carla Bellissimo, Davide Pogliana, Davide Panzin, Luca Garlaschelli, Giulia Facchinetti, Claudia Casson, Luca Marazzina, Andrea Sartori, Simone Rivaroli, Jeff Konin
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The patient is a 26 year-old male amateur football player from Milan, Italy; (81kg; 185cm; BMI 23.6 kg/m²). He sustained a non-contact anterior cruciate ligament tear to his right knee in June 2021. In September 2021, his right knee ligament was reconstructed using a semitendinosus graft. The injury occurred during a football match on natural grass with typical shoes on a warm day (32 degrees celsius). Playing as a defender he sustained the injury during a change of direction, where the foot was fixated on the grass. He felt pain and was unable to continue playing the match. The surgeon approved his rehabilitation to begin two weeks post-operative. The initial physiotherapist assessment determined performing two training sessions per day within the first three months. In the first three weeks, the pain was 4/10 on Numerical Rating Scale (NRS), no swelling, a range of motion was 0-110°, with difficulty fully extending his knee and minimal quadriceps activation. Crutches were discontinued at four weeks with improved walking. Active exercise, electrostimulator, physical therapy, massages, osteopathy, and passive motion were initiated. At week 6, he completed his first functional movement screen; the score was 16/21 with no pain and no swelling. At week 8, the isokinetic test showed a 23% differential deficit between the two legs in maximum strength (at 90°/s). At week 10, he improved to 15% of injury-induced deficit which suggested he was ready to start running. At week 12, the athlete sustained his first threshold test. At week 16, he performed his first return to sports movement assessment, which revealed a 10% stronger difference between the legs. At week 16, he had his second threshold test. At week 17, his first on-field test revealed a 5% differential deficit between the two legs in the hop test. At week 18, isokinetic test demonstrates that the uninjured leg was 7% stronger than the recovering leg in maximum strength (at 90°/s). At week 20, his second on-field test revealed a 2% difference in hop test; at week 21, his third isokinetic test demonstrated a difference of 5% in maximum strength (at 90°/s). At week 21, he performed his second return to sports movement assessment which revealed a 2% difference between the limbs. Since it was the end of the championship, the team asked him to partake in the playoffs; moreover the player was very motivated to participate in the playoffs also because he was the captain of the team. Together with the player and the team, we decided to let him play even though we were aware of a heightened risk of injury than what is reported in the literature because of two factors: biological recovery times and the results of the tests we performed. In the decision making process about the athlete’s recovery time, it is important to balance the information available from the literature with the desires of the patient to avoid frustration.Keywords: ACL, football, rehabilitation, return to play
Procedia PDF Downloads 119772 Avoiding Packet Drop for Improved through Put in the Multi-Hop Wireless N/W
Authors: Manish Kumar Rajak, Sanjay Gupta
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Mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs) are infrastructure less and intercommunicate using single-hop and multi-hop paths. Network based congestion avoidance which involves managing the queues in the network devices is an integral part of any network. QoS: A set of service requirements that are met by the network while transferring a packet stream from a source to a destination. Especially in MANETs, packet loss results in increased overheads. This paper presents a new algorithm to avoid congestion using one or more queue on nodes and corresponding flow rate decided in advance for each node. When any node attains an initial value of queue then it sends this status to its downstream nodes which in turn uses the pre-decided flow rate of packet transfer to its upstream nodes. The flow rate on each node is adjusted according to the status received from its upstream nodes. This proposed algorithm uses the existing infrastructure to inform to other nodes about its current queue status.Keywords: mesh networks, MANET, packet count, threshold, throughput
Procedia PDF Downloads 474771 Application of Public Access Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic and Distributed Hydrological Models for Flood Forecasting in Ungauged Basins
Authors: Ahmad Shayeq Azizi, Yuji Toda
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In Afghanistan, floods are the most frequent and recurrent events among other natural disasters. On the other hand, lack of monitoring data is a severe problem, which increases the difficulty of making the appropriate flood countermeasures of flood forecasting. This study is carried out to simulate the flood inundation in Harirud River Basin by application of distributed hydrological model, Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) and 2D hydrodynamic model, International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) based on satellite rainfall combined with historical peak discharge and global accessed data. The results of the simulation can predict the inundation area, depth and velocity, and the hardware countermeasures such as the impact of levee installation can be discussed by using the present method. The methodology proposed in this study is suitable for the area where hydrological and geographical data including river survey data are poorly observed.Keywords: distributed hydrological model, flood inundation, hydrodynamic model, ungauged basins
Procedia PDF Downloads 166770 ICanny: CNN Modulation Recognition Algorithm
Authors: Jingpeng Gao, Xinrui Mao, Zhibin Deng
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Aiming at the low recognition rate on the composite signal modulation in low signal to noise ratio (SNR), this paper proposes a modulation recognition algorithm based on ICanny-CNN. Firstly, the radar signal is transformed into the time-frequency image by Choi-Williams Distribution (CWD). Secondly, we propose an image processing algorithm using the Guided Filter and the threshold selection method, which is combined with the hole filling and the mask operation. Finally, the shallow convolutional neural network (CNN) is combined with the idea of the depth-wise convolution (Dw Conv) and the point-wise convolution (Pw Conv). The proposed CNN is designed to complete image classification and realize modulation recognition of radar signal. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can reach 90.83% at 0dB and 71.52% at -8dB. Therefore, the proposed algorithm has a good classification and anti-noise performance in radar signal modulation recognition and other fields.Keywords: modulation recognition, image processing, composite signal, improved Canny algorithm
Procedia PDF Downloads 191769 Climate Change and Its Effects on Terrestrial Insect Diversity in Mukuruthi National Park, Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, Tamilnadu, India
Authors: M. Elanchezhian, C. Gunasekaran, A. Agnes Deepa, M. Salahudeen
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In recent years climate change is one of the most emerging threats facing by biodiversity both the animals and plants species. Elevated carbon dioxide and ozone concentrations, extreme temperature, changes in rainfall patterns, insects-plant interaction are the main criteria that affect biodiversity. In the present study, which emphasis the climate change and its effects on terrestrial insect diversity in Mukuruthi National Park a protected areas of Western Ghats in India. Sampling was done seasonally at the three areas using pitfall traps, over the period of January to December 2013. The statistical findings were done by Shannon wiener diversity index (H). A significant seasonal variation pattern was detected for total insect’s diversity at the different study areas. Totally nine orders of insects were recorded. Diversity and abundance of terrestrial insects shows much difference between the Natural, Shoal forest and the Grasslands.Keywords: biodiversity, climate change, mukuruthi national park, terrestrial invertebrates
Procedia PDF Downloads 516768 Application of Deep Eutectic Solvent in the Extraction of Ferulic Acid from Palm Pressed Fibre
Authors: Ng Mei Han, Nu'man Abdul Hadi
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Extraction of ferulic acid from palm pressed fiber using deep eutectic solvent (DES) of choline chloride-acetic acid (ChCl-AA) and choline chloride-citric acid (ChCl-CA) are reported. Influence of water content in DES on the extraction efficiency was investigated. ChCl-AA and ChCl-CA experienced a drop in viscosity from 9.678 to 1.429 and 22.658 ± 1.655 mm2/s, respectively as the water content in the DES increased from 0 to 50 wt% which contributed to higher extraction efficiency for the ferulic acid. Between 41,155 ± 940 mg/kg ferulic acid was obtained after 6 h reflux when ChCl-AA with 30 wt% water was used for the extraction compared to 30,940 ± 621 mg/kg when neat ChCl-AA was used. Although viscosity of the DES could be improved with the addition of water, there is a threshold where the DES could tolerate the presence of water without changing its solvent behavior. The optimum condition for extraction of ferulic acid from palm pressed fiber was heating for 6 h with DES containing 30 wt% water.Keywords: deep eutectic solvent, extraction, ferulic acid, palm fibre
Procedia PDF Downloads 83767 R Software for Parameter Estimation of Spatio-Temporal Model
Authors: Budi Nurani Ruchjana, Atje Setiawan Abdullah, I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, Eddy Hermawan
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In this paper, we propose the application package to estimate parameters of spatiotemporal model based on the multivariate time series analysis using the R open-source software. We build packages mainly to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model. GSTAR is a combination of time series and spatial models that have parameters vary per location. We use the method of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and use the Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) to fit the model to spatiotemporal real phenomenon. For case study, we use oil production data from volcanic layer at Jatibarang Indonesia or climate data such as rainfall in Indonesia. Software R is very user-friendly and it is making calculation easier, processing the data is accurate and faster. Limitations R script for the estimation of model parameters spatiotemporal GSTAR built is still limited to a stationary time series model. Therefore, the R program under windows can be developed either for theoretical studies and application.Keywords: GSTAR Model, MAPE, OLS method, oil production, R software
Procedia PDF Downloads 242766 Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Morocco
Authors: Abdelghani Qadem, Zouhair Qadem
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Like the countries of the Mediterranean region, Morocco is likely to be at high risk of water scarcity due to climate change. Morocco, which is the subject of this study, is located between two climatic zones, temperate in the North tropical in the South, Morocco is distinguished by four types of climate: humid, sub-humid, semi-arid, and arid. The last decades attest to the progression of the semi-arid climate towards the North of the country. The IPCC projections, which have been made in this direction, show that there is an overall downward trend in rainfall contributions varying on average between 10% and 30% depending on the scenario selected and the region considered, they also show an upward trend in average annual temperatures. These trends will have a real impact on water resources, which will result in a drop in the volume of water resources varying between 7.6% and 40.6%. The present study aims to describe the meteorological conditions of Morocco in order to answer the problem dealing with the effect of climatic fluctuations on water resources and to assess water vulnerability in the face of climate change.Keywords: morocco, climate change, water resources, impact, water scarcity
Procedia PDF Downloads 86765 Drone Classification Using Classification Methods Using Conventional Model With Embedded Audio-Visual Features
Authors: Hrishi Rakshit, Pooneh Bagheri Zadeh
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This paper investigates the performance of drone classification methods using conventional DCNN with different hyperparameters, when additional drone audio data is embedded in the dataset for training and further classification. In this paper, first a custom dataset is created using different images of drones from University of South California (USC) datasets and Leeds Beckett university datasets with embedded drone audio signal. The three well-known DCNN architectures namely, Resnet50, Darknet53 and Shufflenet are employed over the created dataset tuning their hyperparameters such as, learning rates, maximum epochs, Mini Batch size with different optimizers. Precision-Recall curves and F1 Scores-Threshold curves are used to evaluate the performance of the named classification algorithms. Experimental results show that Resnet50 has the highest efficiency compared to other DCNN methods.Keywords: drone classifications, deep convolutional neural network, hyperparameters, drone audio signal
Procedia PDF Downloads 104764 Soil Loss Assessment at Steep Slope: A Case Study at the Guthrie Corridor Expressway, Selangor, Malaysia
Authors: Rabiul Islam
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The study was in order to assess soil erosion at plot scale Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) erosion model and Geographic Information System (GIS) technique have been used for the study 8 plots in Guthrie Corridor Expressway, Selangor, Malaysia. The USLE model estimates an average soil loss soil integrating several factors such as rainfall erosivity factor(R ), Soil erodibility factor (K), slope length and steepness factor (LS), vegetation cover factor as well as conservation practice factor (C &P) and Results shows that the four plots have very low rates of soil loss, i.e. NLDNM, NDNM, PLDM, and NDM having an average soil loss of 0.059, 0.106, 0.386 and 0.372 ton/ha/ year, respectively. The NBNM, PLDNM and NLDM plots had a relatively higher rate of soil loss, with an average of 0.678, 0.757 and 0.493ton/ha/year. Whereas, the NBM is one of the highest rate of soil loss from 0.842 ton/ha/year to maximum 16.466 ton/ha/year. The NBM plot was located at bare the land; hence the magnitude of C factor(C=0.15) was the highest one.Keywords: USLE model, GIS, Guthrie Corridor Expressway (GCE), Malaysia
Procedia PDF Downloads 529763 Comparative Study of Al₂O₃ and HfO₂ as Gate Dielectric on AlGaN/GaN Metal Oxide Semiconductor High-Electron Mobility Transistors
Authors: Kaivan Karami, Sahalu Hassan, Sanna Taking, Afesome Ofiare, Aniket Dhongde, Abdullah Al-Khalidi, Edward Wasige
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We have made a comparative study on the influence of Al₂O₃ and HfO₂ grown using atomic layer deposition (ALD) technique as dielectric in the AlGaN/GaN metal oxide semiconductor high electron mobility transistor (MOS-HEMT) structure. Five samples consisting of 20 nm and 10 nm each of Al₂O₃ and HfO₂ respectively and a Schottky gate HEMT, were fabricated and measured. The threshold voltage shifts towards negative by 0.1 V and 1.8 V for 10 nm thick HfO2 and 10 nm thick Al₂O₃ gate dielectric layers respectively. The negative shift for the 20 nm HfO2 and 20 nm Al₂O₃ were 1.2 V and 4.9 V respectively. Higher gm/IDS (transconductance to drain current) ratio was also obtained in HfO₂ than Al₂O₃. With both materials as dielectric, a significant reduction in the gate leakage current in the order of 10^4 was obtained compared to the sample without the dielectric material.Keywords: AlGaN/GaN HEMTs, Al2O3, HfO2, MOSHEMTs.
Procedia PDF Downloads 104762 Instability Index Method and Logistic Regression to Assess Landslide Susceptibility in County Route 89, Taiwan
Authors: Y. H. Wu, Ji-Yuan Lin, Yu-Ming Liou
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This study aims to set up the landslide susceptibility map of County Route 89 at Ren-Ai Township in Nantou County using the Instability Index Method and Logistic regression. Seven susceptibility factors including Slope Angle, Aspect, Elevation, Distance to fold, Distance to River, Distance to Road and Accumulated Rainfall were obtained by GIS based on the Typhoon Toraji landslide area identified by Industrial Technology Research Institute in 2001. To calculate the landslide percentage of each factor and acquire the weight and grade the grid by means of Instability Index Method. In this study, landslide susceptibility can be classified into four grades: high, medium high, medium low and low, in order to determine the advantages and disadvantages of the two models. The precision of this model is verified by classification error matrix and SRC curve. These results suggest that the logistic regression model is a preferred method than instability index in the assessment of landslide susceptibility. It is suitable for the landslide prediction and precaution in this area in the future.Keywords: instability index method, logistic regression, landslide susceptibility, SRC curve
Procedia PDF Downloads 292761 Linkages Between Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity, Food Security and Economic Growth
Authors: Jihène Khalifa
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This study analyzed the relationships between Tunisia’s economic growth, food security, agricultural productivity, and climate change using the ARDL model for the period from 1990 to 2022. The ARDL model reveals a positive correlation between economic growth and lagged agricultural productivity. Additionally, the vector autoregressive (VAR) model highlights the beneficial impact of lagged agricultural productivity on economic growth and the negative effect of rainfall on economic growth. Granger causality analysis identifies unidirectional relationships from economic growth to agricultural productivity, crop production, food security, and temperature variations, as well as from temperature variations to crop production. Furthermore, a bidirectional causality is established between crop production and food security. The study underscores the impact of climate change on crop production and suggests the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate these climate effects.Keywords: economic growth, agriculture, food security, climate change, ARDl, VAR
Procedia PDF Downloads 31760 Microplastics in Urban Environment – Coimbra City Case Study
Authors: Inês Amorim Leitão, Loes van Shaick, António Dinis Ferreira, Violette Geissen
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Plastic pollution is a growing concern worldwide: plastics are commercialized in large quantities and it takes a long time for them to degrade. When in the environment, plastic is fragmented into microplastics (<5mm), which have been found in all environmental compartments at different locations. Microplastics contribute to the environmental pollution in water, air and soil and are linked to human health problems. The progressive increase of population living in cities led to the aggravation of the pollution problem worldwide, especially in urban environments. Urban areas represent a strong source of pollution, through the roads, industrial production, wastewater, landfills, etc. It is expected that pollutants such as microplastics are transported diffusely from the sources through different pathways such as wind and rain. Therefore, it is very complex to quantify, control and treat these pollutants, designated current problematic issues by the European Commission. Green areas are pointed out by experts as natural filters for contaminants in cities, through their capacity of retention by vegetation. These spaces have thus the capacity to control the load of pollutants transported. This study investigates the spatial distribution of microplastics in urban soils of different land uses, their transport through atmospheric deposition, wind erosion, runoff and streams, as well as their deposition in vegetation like grass and tree leaves in urban environment. Coimbra, a medium large city located in the central Portugal, is the case-study. All the soil, sediments, water and vegetation samples were collected in Coimbra and were later analyzed in the Wageningen University & Research laboratory. Microplastics were extracted through the density separation using Sodium Phosphate as solution (~1.4 g cm−3) and filtration methods, visualized under a stereo microscope and identified using the u-FTIR method. Microplastic particles were found in all the different samples. In terms of soils, higher concentrations of microplastics were found in green parks, followed by landfills and industrial places, and the lowest concentrations in forests and pasture land-uses. Atmospheric deposition and streams after rainfall events seems to represent the strongest pathways of microplastics. Tree leaves can retain microplastics on their surfaces. Small leaves such as needle leaves seem to present higher amounts of microplastics per leaf area than bigger leaves. Rainfall episodes seem to reduce the concentration of microplastics on leaves surface, which suggests the wash of microplastics down to lower levels of the tree or to the soil. When in soil, different types of microplastics could be transported to the atmosphere through wind erosion. Grass seems to present high concentrations of microplastics, and the enlargement of the grass cover leads to a reduction of the amount of microplastics in soil, but also of the microplastics moved from the ground to the atmosphere by wind erosion. This study proof that vegetation can help to control the transport and dispersion of microplastics. In order to control the entry and the concentration of microplastics in the environment, especially in cities, it is essential to defining and evaluating nature-based land-use scenarios, considering the role of green urban areas in filtering small particles.Keywords: microplastics, cities, sources, pathways, vegetation
Procedia PDF Downloads 59759 Urban Runoff Modeling of Ungauged Volcanic Catchment in Madinah, Western Saudi Arabia
Authors: Fahad Alahmadi, Norhan Abd Rahman, Mohammad Abdulrazzak, Zulikifli Yusop
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Runoff prediction of ungauged catchment is still a challenging task especially in arid regions with a unique land cover such as volcanic basalt rocks where geological weathering and fractures are highly significant. In this study, Bathan catchment in Madinah western Saudi Arabia was selected for analysis. The aim of this paper is to evaluate different rainfall loss methods; soil conservation Services curve number (SCS-CN), green-ampt and initial-constant rate. Different direct runoff methods were evaluated: soil conservation services dimensionless unit hydrograph (SCS-UH), Snyder unit hydrograph and Clark unit hydrograph. The study showed the superiority of SCS-CN loss method and Clark unit hydrograph method for ungauged catchment where there is no observed runoff data.Keywords: urban runoff modelling, arid regions, ungauged catchments, volcanic rocks, Madinah, Saudi Arabia
Procedia PDF Downloads 405758 Steady State Creep Behavior of Functionally Graded Thick Cylinder
Authors: Tejeet Singh, Harmanjit Singh
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Creep behavior of thick-walled functionally graded cylinder consisting of AlSiC and subjected to internal pressure and high temperature has been analyzed. The functional relationship between strain rate with stress can be described by the well-known threshold stress based creep law with a stress exponent of five. The effect of imposing non-linear particle gradient on the distribution of creep stresses in the thick-walled functionally graded composite cylinder has been investigated. The study revealed that for the assumed non-linear particle distribution, the radial stress decreases throughout the cylinder, whereas the tangential, axial and effective stresses have averaging effect. The strain rates in the functionally graded composite cylinder could be reduced to significant extent by employing non-linear gradient in the distribution of reinforcement.Keywords: functionally graded material, pressure, steady state creep, thick-cylinder
Procedia PDF Downloads 477757 A Meta Regression Analysis to Detect Price Premium Threshold for Eco-Labeled Seafood
Authors: Cristina Giosuè, Federica Biondo, Sergio Vitale
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In the last years, the consumers' awareness for environmental concerns has been increasing, and seafood eco-labels are considered as a possible instrument to improve both seafood markets and sustainable fishing management. In this direction, the aim of this study was to carry out a meta-analysis on consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for eco-labeled wild seafood, by a meta-regression. Therefore, only papers published on ISI journals were searched on “Web of Knowledge” and “SciVerse Scopus” platforms, using the combinations of the following key words: seafood, ecolabel, eco-label, willingness, WTP and premium. The dataset was built considering: paper’s and survey’s codes, year of publication, first author’s nationality, species’ taxa and family, sample size, survey’s continent and country, data collection (where and how), gender and age of consumers, brand and ΔWTP. From analysis the interest on eco labeled seafood emerged clearly, in particular in developed countries. In general, consumers declared greater willingness to pay than that actually applied for eco-label products, with difference related to taxa and brand.Keywords: eco label, meta regression, seafood, willingness to pay
Procedia PDF Downloads 122756 An Application of Extreme Value Theory as a Risk Measurement Approach in Frontier Markets
Authors: Dany Ng Cheong Vee, Preethee Nunkoo Gonpot, Noor Sookia
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In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage tests and loss functions. Our results show that 'fat-tailedness' alone of the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach. The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor. This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes (Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics of the data.Keywords: extreme value theory, financial crisis 2008, value at risk, frontier markets
Procedia PDF Downloads 276755 Effect of Filler Size and Shape on Positive Temperature Coefficient Effect
Authors: Eric Asare, Jamie Evans, Mark Newton, Emiliano Bilotti
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Two types of filler shapes (sphere and flakes) and three different sizes are employed to study the size effect on PTC. The composite is prepared using a mini-extruder with high-density polyethylene (HDPE) as the matrix. A computer modelling is used to fit the experimental results. The percolation threshold decreases with decreasing filler size and this was observed for both the spherical particles as well as the flakes. This was caused by the decrease in interparticle distance with decreasing filler size. The 100 µm particles showed a larger PTC intensity compared to the 5 µm particles for the metal coated glass sphere and flake. The small particles have a large surface area and agglomeration and this makes it difficult for the conductive network to e disturbed. Increasing the filler content decreased the PTC intensity and this is due to an increase in the conductive network within the polymer matrix hence more energy is needed to disrupt the network.Keywords: positive temperature coefficient (PTC) effect, conductive polymer composite (CPC), electrical conductivity
Procedia PDF Downloads 427754 Psychometric Properties and Factor Structure of the College Readiness Questionnaire
Authors: Muna Al-Kalbani, Thuwayba Al Barwani, Otherine Neisler, Hussain Alkharusi, David Clayton, Humaira Al-Sulaimani, Mohammad Khan, Hamad Al-Yahmadi
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This study describes the psychometric properties and factor structure of the University Readiness Survey (URS). Survey data were collected from sample of 2652 students from Sultan Qaboos University. Exploratory factor analysis identified ten significant factors underlining the structure. The results of Confirmatory factor analysis showed a good fit to the data where the indices for the revised model were χ2(df = 1669) = 6093.4; CFI = 0.900; GFI =0.926; PCLOSE = 1.00 and RMSAE = 0.030 where each of these indices were above threshold. The overall value of Cronbach’s alpha was 0.899 indicating that the instrument score was reliable. Results imply that the URS is a valid measure describing the college readiness pattern among Sultan Qaboos University students and the Arabic version could be used by university counselors to identify students’ readiness factors. Nevertheless, further validation of the of the USR is recommended.Keywords: college readiness, confirmatory factor analysis, reliability, validity
Procedia PDF Downloads 226753 The Impact of Karst Structures on the Urban Environment in Semi-Arid Area
Authors: Benhammadi Hocine, Chaffai Hicham
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Urban development is often dependent on adequate land for expansion, except that sometimes these areas have vulnerability. This is the case of karst regions characterized by carbonate geological formations marked by the presence of cavities and cracks. The impact of climate variability in Cheria area marked by a growing shortage of rainfall, the impact resulted in the development of the vulnerability of these structures. This vulnerability has led to the appearance of collapse phenomena as well in both agricultural and urban areas. Two phenomena have emerged to explain the collapses, the first is assigned a filling process in the cavities, and the second is due to a weakening of the resistance that collapses limestone slab shear phenomenon. In urban areas, the weight of the buildings has increased the load on the limestone slab and accelerated the collapse. The analysis of the environmental process is in the context of our modest work, after which we indicate the appropriate methods for management policy of urban expansion. This management more preventive (upstream), much less expensive than remedial solutions (downstream) needed after the event and sometimes ineffective.Keywords: Cheria, urban, climate variability, vulnerability karst collapse, extension, management
Procedia PDF Downloads 468752 Flood Early Warning and Management System
Authors: Yogesh Kumar Singh, T. S. Murugesh Prabhu, Upasana Dutta, Girishchandra Yendargaye, Rahul Yadav, Rohini Gopinath Kale, Binay Kumar, Manoj Khare
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The Indian subcontinent is severely affected by floods that cause intense irreversible devastation to crops and livelihoods. With increased incidences of floods and their related catastrophes, an Early Warning System for Flood Prediction and an efficient Flood Management System for the river basins of India is a must. Accurately modeled hydrological conditions and a web-based early warning system may significantly reduce economic losses incurred due to floods and enable end users to issue advisories with better lead time. This study describes the design and development of an EWS-FP using advanced computational tools/methods, viz. High-Performance Computing (HPC), Remote Sensing, GIS technologies, and open-source tools for the Mahanadi River Basin of India. The flood prediction is based on a robust 2D hydrodynamic model, which solves shallow water equations using the finite volume method. Considering the complexity of the hydrological modeling and the size of the basins in India, it is always a tug of war between better forecast lead time and optimal resolution at which the simulations are to be run. High-performance computing technology provides a good computational means to overcome this issue for the construction of national-level or basin-level flash flood warning systems having a high resolution at local-level warning analysis with a better lead time. High-performance computers with capacities at the order of teraflops and petaflops prove useful while running simulations on such big areas at optimum resolutions. In this study, a free and open-source, HPC-based 2-D hydrodynamic model, with the capability to simulate rainfall run-off, river routing, and tidal forcing, is used. The model was tested for a part of the Mahanadi River Basin (Mahanadi Delta) with actual and predicted discharge, rainfall, and tide data. The simulation time was reduced from 8 hrs to 3 hrs by increasing CPU nodes from 45 to 135, which shows good scalability and performance enhancement. The simulated flood inundation spread and stage were compared with SAR data and CWC Observed Gauge data, respectively. The system shows good accuracy and better lead time suitable for flood forecasting in near-real-time. To disseminate warning to the end user, a network-enabled solution is developed using open-source software. The system has query-based flood damage assessment modules with outputs in the form of spatial maps and statistical databases. System effectively facilitates the management of post-disaster activities caused due to floods, like displaying spatial maps of the area affected, inundated roads, etc., and maintains a steady flow of information at all levels with different access rights depending upon the criticality of the information. It is designed to facilitate users in managing information related to flooding during critical flood seasons and analyzing the extent of the damage.Keywords: flood, modeling, HPC, FOSS
Procedia PDF Downloads 89751 Livelihood Security and Mitigating Climate Changes in the Barind Tract of Bangladesh through Agroforestry Systems
Authors: Md Shafiqul Bari, Md Shafiqul Islam Sikdar
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This paper summarizes the current knowledge on Agroforestry practices in the Barind tract of Bangladesh. The part of greater Rajshahi, Dinajpur, Rangpur and Bogra district of Bangladesh is geographically identified as the Barind tract. The hard red soil of these areas is very significant in comparison to that of the other parts of the country. A typical dry climate with comparatively high temperature prevails in the Barind area. Scanty rainfall and excessive extraction of groundwater have created an alarming situation among the Barind people and others about irrigation to the rice field. In addition, the situation may cause an adverse impact on the people whose livelihood largely depends on agriculture. The groundwater table has been declined by at least 10 to 15 meters in some areas of the Barind tract during the last 20 years. Due to absent of forestland in the Barind tract, the soil organic carbon content can decrease more rapidly because of the higher rate of decomposition. The Barind soils are largely carbon depleted but can be brought back to carbon-carrying capacity by bringing under suitable Agroforestry systems. Agroforestry has tremendous potential for carbon sequestration not only in above C biomass but also root C biomass in deeper soil depths. Agroforestry systems habitually conserve soil organic carbon and maintain a great natural nutrient pool. Cultivation of trees with arable crops under Agroforestry systems help in improving soil organic carbon content and sequestration carbon, particularly in the highly degraded Barind lands. Agroforestry systems are a way of securing the growth of cash crops that may constitute an alternative source of income in moments of crisis. Besides being a source of fuel wood, a greater presence of trees in cropping system contributes to decreasing temperatures and to increasing rainfall, thus contrasting the negative environmental impact of climate changes. In order to fulfill the objectives of this study, two experiments were conducted. The first experiment was survey on the impact of existing agroforestry system on the livelihood security in the Barind tract of Bangladesh and the second one was the role of agroforestry system on the improvement of soil properties in a multilayered coconut orchard. Agroforestry systems have been generated a lot of employment opportunities in the Barind area. More crops mean involvement of more people in various activities like involvements in dairying, sericulture, apiculture and additional associated agro-based interventions. Successful adoption of Agroforestry practices in the Barind area has shown that the Agroforestry practitioners of this area were very sound positioned economically, and had added social status too. However, from the findings of the present study, it may be concluded that the majority rural farmers of the Barind tract of Bangladesh had a very good knowledge and medium extension contact related to agroforestry production system. It was also observed that 85 per cent farmers followed agroforestry production system and received benefits to a higher extent. Again, from the research study on orchard based mutistoried agroforestry cropping system, it was evident that there was an important effect of agroforestry cropping systems on the improvement of soil chemical properties. As a result, the agroforestry systems may be helpful to attain the development objectives and preserve the biosphere core.Keywords: agroforestry systems, Barind tract, carbon sequestration, climate changes
Procedia PDF Downloads 200750 Factors Affecting Sustainable Water Management in Water-Challenged Societies: Case Study of Doha Qatar
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Qatar is a desert country with scarce fresh water resources, low rainfall and very high evaporation rate. It meets the majority of its water requirement through desalination process which is very expensive. Pressures are expected to mount on account of high population growth rate and demands posed by being the venue for 2022 FIFA World cup. This study contributes towards advancing the knowledge of the factors affecting sustainable water consumption in water-challenged societies by examining the case of Doha, Qatar. Survey research methods have been predominantly used for this research. Surveys were conducted using self-administered questionnaires. Focused group interviews and personal interviews with Qatar’s residents were also used to obtain deeper insights. Salient socio-cultural factors that drive the water consumption behavior of the public and which in turn affect sustainable water management practices are determined. Suggestions for reducing water consumption as well as fiscal and punitive measures to curb overuse and misuse of water are also identified.Keywords: Middle East, Qatar, water consumption, water management, sustainability
Procedia PDF Downloads 244749 Mechanical Tension Control of Winding Systems for Paper Webs
Authors: Glaoui Hachemi
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In this paper, a scheme based on multi-input multi output Fuzzy Sliding Mode control (MIMO-FSMC) for linear speed regulation of winding system is proposed. Once the uncoupled model of the winding system was obtained, a smooth control function with a threshold was selected to indicate how far away the case was from the sliding surface. nevertheless, this control function depends closely on the higher bound of the uncertainties, which generates overlap. So, this size has to be chosen with broad care to obtain high performances. Usually, the upper bound of uncertainties is difficult to know before motor operation, so, a Fuzzy Sliding Mode controller is investigated to resolve this problem, a simple Fuzzy inference mechanism is used to decrease the chattering phenomenon by simple adjustments. A simulation study is achieved and that the indicate fuzzy sliding mode controllers have great potential for use as an alternative to the conventional sliding mode control.Keywords: Winding system, induction machine, Mechanical tension, Proportional-integral (PI), sliding mode control, Fuzzy logic
Procedia PDF Downloads 96748 Graphene/h-BN Heterostructure Interconnects
Authors: Nikhil Jain, Yang Xu, Bin Yu
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The material behavior of graphene, a single layer of carbon lattice, is extremely sensitive to its dielectric environment. We demonstrate improvement in electronic performance of graphene nanowire interconnects with full encapsulation by lattice-matching, chemically inert, 2D layered insulator hexagonal boron nitride (h- BN). A novel layer-based transfer technique is developed to construct the h-BN/MLG/h-BN heterostructures. The encapsulated graphene wires are characterized and compared with that on SiO2 or h-BN substrate without passivating h-BN layer. Significant improvements in maximum current-carrying density, breakdown threshold, and power density in encapsulated graphene wires are observed. These critical improvements are achieved without compromising the carrier transport characteristics in graphene. Furthermore, graphene wires exhibit electrical behavior less insensitive to ambient conditions, as compared with the non-passivated ones. Overall, h-BN/graphene/h- BN heterostructure presents a robust material platform towards the implementation of high-speed carbon-based interconnects.Keywords: two-dimensional nanosheet, graphene, hexagonal boron nitride, heterostructure, interconnects
Procedia PDF Downloads 316747 Vehicle Timing Motion Detection Based on Multi-Dimensional Dynamic Detection Network
Authors: Jia Li, Xing Wei, Yuchen Hong, Yang Lu
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Detecting vehicle behavior has always been the focus of intelligent transportation, but with the explosive growth of the number of vehicles and the complexity of the road environment, the vehicle behavior videos captured by traditional surveillance have been unable to satisfy the study of vehicle behavior. The traditional method of manually labeling vehicle behavior is too time-consuming and labor-intensive, but the existing object detection and tracking algorithms have poor practicability and low behavioral location detection rate. This paper proposes a vehicle behavior detection algorithm based on the dual-stream convolution network and the multi-dimensional video dynamic detection network. In the videos, the straight-line behavior of the vehicle will default to the background behavior. The Changing lanes, turning and turning around are set as target behaviors. The purpose of this model is to automatically mark the target behavior of the vehicle from the untrimmed videos. First, the target behavior proposals in the long video are extracted through the dual-stream convolution network. The model uses a dual-stream convolutional network to generate a one-dimensional action score waveform, and then extract segments with scores above a given threshold M into preliminary vehicle behavior proposals. Second, the preliminary proposals are pruned and identified using the multi-dimensional video dynamic detection network. Referring to the hierarchical reinforcement learning, the multi-dimensional network includes a Timer module and a Spacer module, where the Timer module mines time information in the video stream and the Spacer module extracts spatial information in the video frame. The Timer and Spacer module are implemented by Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and start from an all-zero hidden state. The Timer module uses the Transformer mechanism to extract timing information from the video stream and extract features by linear mapping and other methods. Finally, the model fuses time information and spatial information and obtains the location and category of the behavior through the softmax layer. This paper uses recall and precision to measure the performance of the model. Extensive experiments show that based on the dataset of this paper, the proposed model has obvious advantages compared with the existing state-of-the-art behavior detection algorithms. When the Time Intersection over Union (TIoU) threshold is 0.5, the Average-Precision (MP) reaches 36.3% (the MP of baselines is 21.5%). In summary, this paper proposes a vehicle behavior detection model based on multi-dimensional dynamic detection network. This paper introduces spatial information and temporal information to extract vehicle behaviors in long videos. Experiments show that the proposed algorithm is advanced and accurate in-vehicle timing behavior detection. In the future, the focus will be on simultaneously detecting the timing behavior of multiple vehicles in complex traffic scenes (such as a busy street) while ensuring accuracy.Keywords: vehicle behavior detection, convolutional neural network, long short-term memory, deep learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 130746 Pollutant Loads of Urban Runoff from a Mixed Residential-Commercial Catchment
Authors: Carrie Ho, Tan Yee Yong
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Urban runoff quality for a mixed residential-commercial land use catchment in Miri, Sarawak was investigated for three storm events in 2011. Samples from the three storm events were tested for five water quality parameters, Namely, TSS, COD, BOD5, TP, and Pb. Concentration of the pollutants were found to vary significantly between storms, but were generally influenced by the length of antecedent dry period and the strength of rainfall intensities. Runoff from the study site showed a significant level of pollution for all the parameters investigated. Based on the National Water Quality Standards for Malaysia (NWQS), stormwater quality from the study site was polluted and exceeded class III water for TSS and BOD5 with maximum EMCs of 177 and 24 mg/L, respectively. Design pollutant load based on a design storm of 3-month average recurrence interval (ARI) for TSS, COD, BOD5, TP, and Pb were estimated to be 40, 9.4, 5.4, 1.7, and 0.06 kg/ha, respectively. The design pollutant load for the pollutants can be used to estimate loadings from similar catchments within Miri City.Keywords: mixed land-use, urban runoff, pollutant load, national water quality
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