Search results for: rain rates
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3177

Search results for: rain rates

2517 Outcome at the Extreme of Viability: A Single-Centre Experience

Authors: Antonia Harold-Barry, Eugene Dempsey

Abstract:

Background: The objective is to examine the survival and outcome of infants born under 26 weeks gestation in an Irish tertiary maternity hospital from 2007-2016 and to describe the survival and neurodevelopmental outcomes of these extremely preterm infants. Method: The population is 132 infants born at 23, 24, and 25 weeks in Cork University Maternity Hospital from 2007 to 2016. Ethical approval was granted by the Cork Clinical Research Ethics Committee. Patient details were obtained from the Vermont Oxford and Badger Networks. Survival rates and Bayley scores were calculated to assess neurodevelopmental outcomes. Statistical analysis with SPSS included frequencies, distributions, and comparisons between data from 2007-2011 and 2012-2016. Results: Overall survival rate was 63%. Of the surviving babies, 61% had Bayley scores calculated. Survival stood at 39% for delivery at 23 weeks, 50% at 24 weeks, and 83% at 25 weeks. The 2012 to 2016 cohort has shown further increases in survival, with 50% of babies at 23 weeks, 58% at 24 weeks, and 89% at 25 weeks. Corresponding figures for 2007-2011 are 20%, 39%, and 75%. Gestational age and incidence of periventricular leukomalacia were statistically significant, with a p-value of 0.022. Gestational age and delivery room deaths had a p-value of 0.025, as did gestational age and birth weight. A comparison of the two cohorts (2007-2011 and 2012-2016) with the administration of antenatal steroids showed a statistically significant p-value of 0.044. Conclusion: There is less morbidity and mortality in infants born at 25 than at 23 or 24 weeks. Survival of extremely premature infants has increased significantly over the past ten years. Survival rates with normal neurodevelopmental outcomes are comparable with international standards and reflect positive changes in attitude and practices in neonatal intensive care. This study will inform parents about the potential outcomes of extreme prematurity and policy regarding the management of extreme prematurity.

Keywords: extreme of viability, neurodevelopmental outcome, periventricular leukomalacia, prematurity

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2516 Hydraulics of 3D Aerators with Lateral Enlargements

Authors: Nirmala Lama

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The construction of high dams has led to significant challenges in managing flow rates discharging over spillways, resulting in cavitation damages on hydraulic surfaces. To address this, aerator devices were designed and installed to promote fore aeration, thereby controlling and mitigating damages caused by cavitation. Consequently, these aerator types, three-dimensional aerators (3DAEs), have demonstrated superior efficiency in introducing forced air into the flow.This research focuses on the installation and evaluation of three-dimensional aerator devices at the high discharge spillway surface. In the laboratory, the air concentration downstream of the hydraulic structures was extensively measured, and the data were analyzed in details.Multiple flow scenarios and structural arrangements of the aerators were adopted for the study. The outcomes of these experiments are listed as In terms of air concentration value, the comparison between 3 DAE (three-dimensional aerator) with offset only and offset with ramp reveals significant differences. The concentration value on the side wall was justified. The side cavity length was found to increase with higher approach Froude numbers and lateral enlargement widths. Furthermore, 3DAE exhibited shorter side cavity lengths compared to three-dimensional aerator devices without ramps (3DAD), a beneficial features for controlling water fins. An empirical formula to express the side cavity length was derived from the measured data. Also, the comparison were made on the basis of water fin formation between the different arrangements of 3D aerators. In conclusion, this research provides valuable insights into the performance of three-dimensional aerators in mitigating cavitation damages and controlling water fins in high dam spillways. The findings offer practical implications for designers and engineers seeking to enhance the efficiency and safety of hydraulic structures subjected to high flow rates.

Keywords: three-dimension aerator, cavity, water fin, air entrainment

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2515 Evaluation of Real-Time Background Subtraction Technique for Moving Object Detection Using Fast-Independent Component Analysis

Authors: Naoum Abderrahmane, Boumehed Meriem, Alshaqaqi Belal

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Background subtraction algorithm is a larger used technique for detecting moving objects in video surveillance to extract the foreground objects from a reference background image. There are many challenges to test a good background subtraction algorithm, like changes in illumination, dynamic background such as swinging leaves, rain, snow, and the changes in the background, for example, moving and stopping of vehicles. In this paper, we propose an efficient and accurate background subtraction method for moving object detection in video surveillance. The main idea is to use a developed fast-independent component analysis (ICA) algorithm to separate background, noise, and foreground masks from an image sequence in practical environments. The fast-ICA algorithm is adapted and adjusted with a matrix calculation and searching for an optimum non-quadratic function to be faster and more robust. Moreover, in order to estimate the de-mixing matrix and the denoising de-mixing matrix parameters, we propose to convert all images to YCrCb color space, where the luma component Y (brightness of the color) gives suitable results. The proposed technique has been verified on the publicly available datasets CD net 2012 and CD net 2014, and experimental results show that our algorithm can detect competently and accurately moving objects in challenging conditions compared to other methods in the literature in terms of quantitative and qualitative evaluations with real-time frame rate.

Keywords: background subtraction, moving object detection, fast-ICA, de-mixing matrix

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2514 Measurement of Intermediate Slip Rate of Sabzpushan Fault Zone in Southwestern Iran, Using Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) Dating

Authors: Iman Nezamzadeh, Ali Faghih, Behnam Oveisi

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In order to reduce earthquake hazards in urban areas, it is necessary to perform comprehensive studies to understand the dynamics of the active faults and identify potentially high risk areas. The fault slip-rates in Late Quaternary sediment are critical indicators of seismic hazard and also provide valuable data to recognize young crustal deformations. To measure slip-rates accurately, is needed to displacement of geomorphic markers and ages of quaternary sediment samples of alluvial deposit that deformed by movements on fault. In this study we produced information about Intermediate term slip rate of Sabzpushan Fault Zone (SPF) within the central part of the Zagros Mountains of Iran using OSL dating technique to make better analysis of seismic hazard and seismic risk reduction for Shiraz city. For this purpose identifiable geomorphic fluvial surfaces help us to provide a reference frame to determine differential or absolute horizontal and vertical deformation. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) is an alternative and independent method of determining the burial age of mineral grains in Quaternary sediments. Field observation and satellite imagery show geomorphic markers that deformed horizontally along the Sabzpoushan Fault. Here, drag folds is forming because of evaporites material of Miocen Formation. We estimate 2.8±0.5 mm/yr (mm/y) horizontal slip rate along the Sabzpushan fault zone, where ongoing deformation is involve with drug folding. The Soltan synclinal structure, close to the Sabzpushan fault, shows slight uplift rate due to active core-extrousion.

Keywords: slip rate, active tectonics, OSL, geomorphic markers, Sabzpushan Fault Zone, Zagros, Iran

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2513 Ecosystem Engineering Strengthens Bottom-Up and Weakens Top-Down Effects via Trait-Mediated Indirect Interactions

Authors: Zhiwei Zhong, Xiaofei Li, Deli Wang

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Ecosystem engineering is a powerful force shaping community structure and ecosystem function. Yet, very little is known about the mechanisms by which engineers affect vital ecosystem processes like trophic interactions. Here, we examine the potential for a herbivore ecosystem engineer, domestic sheep, to affect trophic interactions between the web-building spider Argiope bruennichi, its grasshopper prey Euchorthippus spp., and the grasshoppers’ host plant Leymus chinensis. By integrating small- and large-scale field experiments, we demonstrate that: 1) moderate sheep grazing changed the structure of plant communities by suppressing strongly interacting forbs within a grassland matrix; 2) this change in plant community structure drove interaction modifications between the grasshoppers and their grass host plants and between grasshoppers and their spider predators, and 3) these interaction modifications were entirely mediated by plasticity in grasshopper behavior. Overall, ecosystem engineering by sheep grazing strengthened bottom-up effects and weakened top-down effects via trait-mediated interactions, resulting in a nearly two-fold increase in grasshopper densities. Interestingly, the grasshopper behavioral shifts which reduced spider per capita predation rates in the microcosms did not translate to reduced spider predation rates at the larger system scale because increased grasshopper densities offset behavioral effects at larger scales. Our findings demonstrate that 1) ecosystem engineering can strongly alter trophic interactions, 2) such effects can be driven by cryptic trait-mediated interactions, and 3) the relative importance of trait- versus density effects as measured by microcosm experiments may not reflect the importance of these processes at realistic ecological scales due to scale-dependent interactions.

Keywords: bottom-up effects, ecosystem engineering, trait-mediated indirect effects, top-down effects

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2512 Obtaining Triploid Plants of Sprekelia formosissima by Artificial Hybridization

Authors: Jose Manuel Rodriguez-Dominguez, Rodrigo Barba-Gonzalez, Ernesto Tapia-Campos

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Sprekelia formosissima (L.) Herbert is a bulbous ornamental species of the monocotyledonous Amaryllidaceae family, and it is a perennial, herbaceous monotypic plant commonly known as ‘Aztec Lily’ or ‘Jacobean Lily’; it is distributed through Mexico and Guatemala. Its scarlet flowers with curved petals have made it an exceptional ornamental pot plant. Cytogenetic studies in this species have shown differences in chromosome number (2n=60, 120, 150, 180) with a basic number x=30. Different reports have shown a variable ploidy level (diploid, tetraploid, pentaploid and hexaploid); however, triploid plants have not been reported. In this work, triploid plants of S. formosissima were obtained by crossing tetraploid (2n=4x=120) with diploid (2n=2x=60) genotypes of this species; the seeds obtained from the crosses were placed in pots with a moist substrate made of Peat Moss: Vermiculite (7:3) for germination. Root tips were collected, and metaphasic chromosome preparations were performed. For chromosome counting, the best five metaphases obtained were photographed with a Leica DMRA2 microscope (Leica Microsystems, Germany) microscopy coupled to an Evolution QEI camera under phase contrast (Media-Cybernetics). Chromosomes counting in root-tip cells showed that 100% of the plants were triploid (2n=3x=90). Although tetraploid or pentaploid plants of S. formosissima are highly appreciated, they usually have lower growth rates than related diploid ones. For this reason, it is important to obtain triploid plants, which have advantages such as higher growth rates than tetraploid and pentaploid, larger flowers than those of the diploid plants and they are expected to not be able to produce seeds because their gametes are aneuploids. Furthermore, triploids may become very important for genomic research in the future, creating opportunities for discovering and monitoring genomic and transcriptomic changes in unbalanced genomes, hence the importance of this work.

Keywords: Amaryllidaceae, cytogenetics, ornamental, ploidy level

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2511 Sources of Water Supply and Water Quality for Local Consumption: The Case Study of Eco-Tourism Village, Suan Luang Sub- District Municipality, Ampawa District, Samut Songkram Province, Thailand

Authors: Paiboon Jeamponk, Tasanee Ponglaa, Patchapon Srisanguan

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The aim of this research paper was based on an examination of sources of water supply and water quality for local consumption, conducted at eco-tourism villages of Suan Luang Sub- District Municipality of Amphawa District, Samut Songkram Province. The study incorporated both questionnaire and field work of water testing as the research tool and method. The sample size of 288 households was based on the population of the district, whereas the selected sample water sources were from 60 households: 30 samples were ground water and another 30 were surface water. Degree of heavy metal contamination in the water including copper, iron, manganese, zinc, cadmium and lead was investigated utilizing the Atomic Absorption- Direct Aspiration method. The findings unveiled that 96.0 percent of household water consumption was based on water supply, while the rest on canal, river and rain water. The household behaviour of consumption revealed that 47.2 percent of people routinely consumed water without boiling or filtering prior to consumption. The investigation of water supply quality found that the degree of heavy metal contamination including metal, lead, iron, copper, manganese and cadmium met the standards of the Department of Health.

Keywords: sources of water supply, water quality, water supply, Thailand

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2510 Rheological Behavior of Oxidized Vegetable Oils

Authors: Ioana Stanciu

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This article presents the study of the rheological behavior of oxidized and non-oxidized vegetable oils at high temperatures and increasing shear rates. The largest increases in the dynamic viscosity of oxidized oils, in relation to the values that characterize non-oxidized oils, are recorded for soybean oil, followed by corn oil. Oxidized olive and rapeseed oils do not register significant increases in dynamic viscosity compared to non-oxidized oils.

Keywords: oil, oxidized, viscosity, vegetable

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2509 Assessing Adoption Trends of Mukau (Melia volkensii (Gürke)) Enterprises in Eastern and Coastal Regions of Kenya

Authors: Lydia Murugi Mugendi

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The promotion of tree growing as a lucrative enterprise is the focus of this paper as management practices have shifted focus from protection of natural forest resources to community/government partnerships with the aim of resource conservation, management and increase of on-farm tree growing. Using KEFRI as (the source) of information pertaining Melia volkensii (the medium or message) being transferred, this paper investigates the current perception towards forestry and the behavioural attitudes of recipients of forest intervention activities. The two objectives explored in this paper are to find out the level of adoption of Mukau in Kitui, Kibwezi and Samburu/Taru and secondly, to find out the characteristics of the adoption process between Kitui, Kibwezi and Samburu/Taru. The methodologies used during data collection were participatory rural appraisal tools in conjunction with the social survey questionnaires. Simple random sampling and snowball sampling were used to identify respondents within the three target sites and analysis was done using SPSS. Results of the study of indicating that adoption rates of the Mukau in Samburu/Taru, where forestry-related activities were introduced within the past one decade had significantly increase despite initial resistance. The other areas, which had benefited from numerous decades of intense forestry extension projects and activities, indicated a decline in re-adoption rates of Mukau as an enterprise. This study has brought out the reality of adoption trends and state of Mukau population within the three counties while providing a glimpse towards the communities’ perception in regards to adoption of forestry and other environmental innovations. The outcome of the study is to provide a guideline for extension/ dissemination officers in KEFRI and related stakeholders to promote seamless cohesive interaction between the recipient communities of the proposed interventions.

Keywords: adoption, innovation, enterprise, extension, DOI Theory

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2508 Dynamic Modeling of Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plants Using BioWin

Authors: Komal Rathore, Aydin Sunol, Gita Iranipour, Luke Mulford

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Advanced wastewater treatment plants have complex biological kinetics, time variant influent flow rates and long processing times. Due to these factors, the modeling and operational control of advanced wastewater treatment plants become complicated. However, development of a robust model for advanced wastewater treatment plants has become necessary in order to increase the efficiency of the plants, reduce energy costs and meet the discharge limits set by the government. A dynamic model was designed using the Envirosim (Canada) platform software called BioWin for several wastewater treatment plants in Hillsborough County, Florida. Proper control strategies for various parameters such as mixed liquor suspended solids, recycle activated sludge and waste activated sludge were developed for models to match the plant performance. The models were tuned using both the influent and effluent data from the plant and their laboratories. The plant SCADA was used to predict the influent wastewater rates and concentration profiles as a function of time. The kinetic parameters were tuned based on sensitivity analysis and trial and error methods. The dynamic models were validated by using experimental data for influent and effluent parameters. The dissolved oxygen measurements were taken to validate the model by coupling them with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models. The Biowin models were able to exactly mimic the plant performance and predict effluent behavior for extended periods. The models are useful for plant engineers and operators as they can take decisions beforehand by predicting the plant performance with the use of BioWin models. One of the important findings from the model was the effects of recycle and wastage ratios on the mixed liquor suspended solids. The model was also useful in determining the significant kinetic parameters for biological wastewater treatment systems.

Keywords: BioWin, kinetic modeling, flowsheet simulation, dynamic modeling

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2507 Retrospective Assessment of the Safety and Efficacy of Percutaneous Microwave Ablation in the Management of Hepatic Lesions

Authors: Suang K. Lau, Ismail Goolam, Rafid Al-Asady

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Background: The majority of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are not suitable for curative treatment, in the form of surgical resection or transplantation, due to tumour extent and underlying liver dysfunction. In these non-resectable cases, a variety of non-surgical therapies are available, including microwave ablation (MWA), which has shown increasing popularity due to its low morbidity, low reported complication rate, and the ability to perform multiple ablations simultaneously. Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity of MWA as a viable treatment option in the management of HCC and hepatic metastatic disease, by assessing its efficacy and complication rate at a tertiary hospital situated in Westmead (Australia). Methods: A retrospective observational study was performed evaluating patients that underwent MWA between 1/1/2017–31/12/2018 at Westmead Hospital, NSW, Australia. Outcome measures, including residual disease, recurrence rates, as well as major and minor complication rates, were retrospectively analysed over a 12-months period following MWA treatment. Excluded patients included those whose lesions were treated on the basis of residual or recurrent disease from previous treatment, which occurred prior to the study window (11 patients) and those who were lost to follow up (2 patients). Results: Following treatment of 106 new hepatic lesions, the complete response rate (CR) was 86% (91/106) at 12 months follow up. 10 patients had the residual disease at post-treatment follow up imaging, corresponding to an incomplete response (ICR) rate of 9.4% (10/106). The local recurrence rate (LRR) was 4.6% (5/106) with follow-up period up to 12 months. The minor complication rate was 9.4% (10/106) including asymptomatic pneumothorax (n=2), asymptomatic pleural effusions (n=2), right lower lobe pneumonia (n=3), pain requiring admission (n=1), hypotension (n=1), cellulitis (n=1) and intraparenchymal hematoma (n=1). There was 1 major complication reported, with pleuro-peritoneal fistula causing recurrent large pleural effusion necessitating repeated thoracocentesis (n=1). There was no statistically significant association between tumour size, location or ablation factors, and risk of recurrence or residual disease. A subset analysis identified 6 segment VIII lesions, which were treated via a trans-pleural approach. This cohort demonstrated an overall complication rate of 33% (2/6), including 1 minor complication of asymptomatic pneumothorax and 1 major complication of pleuro-peritoneal fistula. Conclusions: Microwave ablation therapy is an effective and safe treatment option in cases of non-resectable hepatocellular carcinoma and liver metastases, with good local tumour control and low complication rates. A trans-pleural approach for high segment VIII lesions is associated with a higher complication rate and warrants greater caution.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, liver metastases, microwave ablation, trans-pleural approach

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2506 Relation of Black Carbon Aerosols and Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height during Wet Removal Processes over a Semi Urban Location

Authors: M. Ashok Williams, T. V. Lakshmi Kumar

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The life cycle of Black carbon aerosols depends on their physical removal processes from the atmosphere during the precipitation events. Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration has been analysed during rainy and non-rainy days of Northeast (NE) Monsoon months of the years 2015 and 2017 over a semi-urban environment near Chennai (12.81 N, 80.03 E), located on the east coast of India. BC, measured using an Aethalometer (AE-31) has been related to the atmospheric boundary layer height (BLH) obtained from the ERA Interim Reanalysis data during rainy and non-rainy days on monthly mean basis to understand the wet removal of BC over the study location. The study reveals that boundary layer height has a profound effect on the BC concentration on rainy days and non rainy days. It is found that the BC concentration in the night time is lower on rainy days compared to non rainy days owing to wash out on rainy days and the boundary layer height remaining nearly the same on rainy and non rainy days. On the other hand, in the daytime, it is found that the BC concentration remains nearly the same on rainy and non rainy days whereas the boundary layer height is lower on rainy days compared to non rainy days. This reveals that in daytime, lower boundary layer heights compensate for the wet removal effect on BC concentration on rainy days. A quantitative relation is found between the product of BC and BLH during rainy and non-rainy days which indicates the extent of redistribution of BC during non-rainy days when compared to the rainy days. Further work on the wet removal processes of the BC is in progress considering the individual rain events and other related parameters like wind speed.

Keywords: black carbon aerosols, atmospheric boundary layer, scavenging processes, tropical coastal location

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2505 Influence of Precipitation and Land Use on Extreme Flow in Prek Thnot River Basin of Mekong River in Cambodia

Authors: Chhordaneath Hen, Ty Sok, Ilan Ich, Ratboren Chan, Chantha Oeurng

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The damages caused by hydrological extremes such as flooding have been severe globally, and several research studies indicated extreme precipitations play a crucial role. Cambodia is one of the most vulnerable countries exposed to floods and drought as consequences of climate impact. Prek Thnot River Basin in the southwest part of Cambodia, which is in the plate and plateau region and a part of the Mekong Delta, was selected to investigate the changes in extreme precipitation and hydrological extreme. Furthermore, to develop a statistical relationship between these phenomena in this basin from 1995 to 2020 using Multiple Linear Regression. The precipitation and hydrological extreme were assessed via the attributes and trends of rainfall patterns during the study periods. The extreme flow was defined as a dependent variable, while the independent variables are various extreme precipitation indices. The study showed that all extreme precipitations indices (R10, R20, R35, CWD, R95p, R99p, and PRCPTOT) had increasing decency. However, the number of rain days per year had a decreasing tendency, which can conclude that extreme rainfall was more intense in a shorter period of the year. The study showed a similar relationship between extreme precipitation and hydrological extreme and land use change association with hydrological extreme. The direct combination of land use and precipitation equals 37% of the flood causes in this river. This study provided information on these two causes of flood events and an understanding of expectations of climate change consequences for flood and water resources management.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, hydrological extreme, land use, land cover, Prek Thnot river basin

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2504 The Impact of COVID-19 on Antibiotic Prescribing in Primary Care in England: Evaluation and Risk Prediction of the Appropriateness of Type and Repeat Prescribing

Authors: Xiaomin Zhong, Alexander Pate, Ya-Ting Yang, Ali Fahmi, Darren M. Ashcroft, Ben Goldacre, Brian Mackenna, Amir Mehrkar, Sebastian C. J. Bacon, Jon Massey, Louis Fisher, Peter Inglesby, Kieran Hand, Tjeerd van Staa, Victoria Palin

Abstract:

Background: This study aimed to predict risks of potentially inappropriate antibiotic type and repeat prescribing and assess changes during COVID-19. Methods: With the approval of NHS England, we used the OpenSAFELY platform to access the TPP SystmOne electronic health record (EHR) system and selected patients prescribed antibiotics from 2019 to 2021. Multinomial logistic regression models predicted the patient’s probability of receiving an inappropriate antibiotic type or repeating the antibiotic course for each common infection. Findings: The population included 9.1 million patients with 29.2 million antibiotic prescriptions. 29.1% of prescriptions were identified as repeat prescribing. Those with same-day incident infection coded in the EHR had considerably lower rates of repeat prescribing (18.0%), and 8.6% had a potentially inappropriate type. No major changes in the rates of repeat antibiotic prescribing during COVID-19 were found. In the ten risk prediction models, good levels of calibration and moderate levels of discrimination were found. Important predictors included age, prior antibiotic prescribing, and region. Patients varied in their predicted risks. For sore throat, the range from 2.5 to 97.5th percentile was 2.7 to 23.5% (inappropriate type) and 6.0 to 27.2% (repeat prescription). For otitis externa, these numbers were 25.9 to 63.9% and 8.5 to 37.1%, respectively. Interpretation: Our study found no evidence of changes in the level of inappropriate or repeat antibiotic prescribing after the start of COVID-19. Repeat antibiotic prescribing was frequent and varied according to regional and patient characteristics. There is a need for treatment guidelines to be developed around antibiotic failure and clinicians provided with individualised patient information.

Keywords: antibiotics, infection, COVID-19 pandemic, antibiotic stewardship, primary care

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2503 A Comparative Analysis of the Performance of COSMO and WRF Models in Quantitative Rainfall Prediction

Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events

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2502 Productive Safety Net Program and Rural Livelihood in Ethiopia

Authors: Desta Brhanu Gebrehiwot

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The purpose of this review was to analyze the overall or combined effect of scholarly studies conducted on the impacts of Food for work (FFW) and Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on farm households’ livelihood (agricultural investment on the adoption of fertilizer, food security, livestock holding, nutrition and its’ disincentive effect) in Ethiopia. In addition, to make a critical assessment of the internal and external validity of the existing studies, the review also indicates the possibility to redesign the program. The method of selecting eligible studies for review was PICOS (Participants, Intervention, Comparison, Outcomes, and Settings) framework. The method of analysis was the fixed effects model under Meta-Analysis. The findings of this systematic review confirm the overall or combined positive significant impact of PSNP on fertilizer adoption (combined point estimate=0.015, standard error=0.005, variance=0.000, lower limit 0.004 up to the upper limit=0.026, z-value=2.726, and p-value=0.006). And the program had a significant positive impact on the child nutrition of rural households and had no significant disincentive effect. However, the program had no significant impact on livestock holdings. Thus, PSNP is important for households whose livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture and are exposed to rainfall shocks. Thus, better to integrate the program into the national agricultural policy. In addition, most of the studies suggested that PSNP needs more attention to the design and targeting issued in order to be effective and efficient in social protection.

Keywords: meta-analysis, fixed effect model, PSNP, rural-livelihood, Ethiopia

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2501 Unifying RSV Evolutionary Dynamics and Epidemiology Through Phylodynamic Analyses

Authors: Lydia Tan, Philippe Lemey, Lieselot Houspie, Marco Viveen, Darren Martin, Frank Coenjaerts

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Introduction: Human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) is the leading cause of severe respiratory tract infections in infants under the age of two. Genomic substitutions and related evolutionary dynamics of hRSV are of great influence on virus transmission behavior. The evolutionary patterns formed are due to a precarious interplay between the host immune response and RSV, thereby selecting the most viable and less immunogenic strains. Studying genomic profiles can teach us which genes and consequent proteins play an important role in RSV survival and transmission dynamics. Study design: In this study, genetic diversity and evolutionary rate analysis were conducted on 36 RSV subgroup B whole genome sequences and 37 subgroup A genome sequences. Clinical RSV isolates were obtained from nasopharyngeal aspirates and swabs of children between 2 weeks and 5 years old of age. These strains, collected during epidemic seasons from 2001 to 2011 in the Netherlands and Belgium by either conventional or 454-sequencing. Sequences were analyzed for genetic diversity, recombination events, synonymous/non-synonymous substitution ratios, epistasis, and translational consequences of mutations were mapped to known 3D protein structures. We used Bayesian statistical inference to estimate the rate of RSV genome evolution and the rate of variability across the genome. Results: The A and B profiles were described in detail and compared to each other. Overall, the majority of the whole RSV genome is highly conserved among all strains. The attachment protein G was the most variable protein and its gene had, similar to the non-coding regions in RSV, more elevated (two-fold) substitution rates than other genes. In addition, the G gene has been identified as the major target for diversifying selection. Overall, less gene and protein variability was found within RSV-B compared to RSV-A and most protein variation between the subgroups was found in the F, G, SH and M2-2 proteins. For the F protein mutations and correlated amino acid changes are largely located in the F2 ligand-binding domain. The small hydrophobic phosphoprotein and nucleoprotein are the most conserved proteins. The evolutionary rates were similar in both subgroups (A: 6.47E-04, B: 7.76E-04 substitution/site/yr), but estimates of the time to the most recent common ancestor were much lower for RSV-B (B: 19, A: 46.8 yrs), indicating that there is more turnover in this subgroup. Conclusion: This study provides a detailed description of whole RSV genome mutations, the effect on translation products and the first estimate of the RSV genome evolution tempo. The immunogenic G protein seems to require high substitution rates in order to select less immunogenic strains and other conserved proteins are most likely essential to preserve RSV viability. The resulting G gene variability makes its protein a less interesting target for RSV intervention methods. The more conserved RSV F protein with less antigenic epitope shedding is, therefore, more suitable for developing therapeutic strategies or vaccines.

Keywords: drug target selection, epidemiology, respiratory syncytial virus, RSV

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2500 The Management of Climate Change by Indigenous People: A Focus on Himachal Pradesh, India

Authors: Anju Batta Sehgal

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Climate change is a major challenge in terms of agriculture, food security and rural livelihood for thousands of people especially the poor in Himachal, which falls in North-Western Himalayas. Agriculture contributes over 45 per cent to net state domestic product. It is the main source of income and employment. Over 93 per cent of population is dependent on agriculture which provides direct employment to 71 percent of its people. Area of operation holding is about 9,79 lakh hectares owned by 9.14 lakh farmers. About 80 per cent area is rain-fed and farmers depend on weather gods for rains. Region is a home of diverse ethnic communities having enormous socio-economic and cultural diversities, gifted with range of farming systems and rich resource wealth, including biodiversity, hot spots and ecosystems sustaining millions of people living in the region. But growing demands of ecosystem goods and services are posing threats to natural resources. Climate change is already making adverse impact on the indigenous people. The rural populace is directly dependent for all its food, shelter and other needs on the climate. Our aim should be to shift the focus to indigenous people as primary actors in terms of global climate change monitoring, adaptations and innovations. Objective of this paper is to identify the climate change related threats and vulnerabilities associated with agriculture as a sector and agriculture as people’s livelihood. Broadly it analyses the connections between the nature and rural consumers the ethnic groups.

Keywords: climate change, agriculture, indigenous people, Himachal Pradesh

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2499 Enhancing Project Success: A Case Study of Investment Strategies and Planning Practices in Rwanda’s Housing Projects Managed by Rwanda Social Security Board

Authors: Amina Umulisa

Abstract:

Background: Despite efforts to enhance profitability and project planning, Rwanda has experienced a decline in project success rates, notably in housing projects managed by the Rwanda Social Security Board (RSSB). This study aims to assess the impact of investment strategies and project planning practices on the performance of pension funds projects in Rwanda, focusing on housing projects by RSSB. Methods: Using descriptive and correlational research designs, this study surveyed 109 randomly selected respondents from a pool of 148 workers. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive and inferential statistics in STATA version 18. Results: Findings revealed that 54% of respondents acknowledged the importance of personnel generation. Additionally, 61% agreed with the effectiveness of training programs, and 79% supported the cost of human resource utilization. In terms of project management practices, 65.7% could determine when a project needed adjustments, 65.7% agreed with the approved budget, and 73% supported forecasted expenses. Furthermore, 68% agreed with order placement, 76.0% with using the right materials, and 64.4% with defining project scope. The study found significant associations between order placement and project quality outcomes (r=0.711, P-value <0.001), as well as with time management (Pearson was 0.701 and sing was 0.00) and cost management (r=0.885, P-value <0.001). Moreover, project time targets were found to significantly affect quality management (Pearson was 0.798, sing was 0.000), time management, and cost management (r=0.740, P-value <0.001). Conclusion: The findings highlight the positive association between the project implementation stage and quality management, indicating effective project planning practices among senior staff. However, there is a need to enhance project team collaboration and coordination to improve the performance of constructed houses.

Keywords: project success rates, investment strategies, training programs, cost management

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2498 Yield and Sward Composition Responses of Natural Grasslands to Treatments Meeting Sustainability

Authors: D. Díaz Fernández, I. Csízi, K. Pető, G. Nagy

Abstract:

An outstanding part of the animal products are based on the grasslands, due to the fact that the grassland ecosystems can be found all over the globe. In places where economical and successful crop production cannot be managed, the grassland based animal husbandry can be an efficient way of food production. In addition, these ecosystems have an important role in carbon sequestration, and with their rich flora – and fauna connected to it – in conservation of biodiversity. The protection of nature, and the sustainable agriculture is getting more and more attention in the European Union, but, looking at the consumers’ needs, the production of healthy food cannot be neglected either. Because of these facts, the effects of two specific composts - which are officially authorized in organic farming, in Agri-environment Schemes and Natura 2000 programs – on grass yields and sward compositions were investigated in a field trial. The investigation took place in Hungary, on a natural grassland based on solonetz soil. Three rates of compost (10 t/ha, 20 t/ha, 30 t/ha) were tested on 3 m X 10 m experimental plots. Every treatment had four replications and both type of compost had four-four control plots too, this way 32 experimental plots were included in the investigations. The yield of the pasture was harvested two-times (in May and in September) and before cutting the plots, measurements on botanical compositions were made. Samples for laboratory analysis were also taken. Dry matter yield of pasture showed positive responses to the rates of composts. The increase in dry matter yield was partly due to some positive changes in sward composition. It means that the proportions of grass species with higher yield potential increased in ground cover of the sward without depressing out valuable native species of diverse natural grasslands. The research results indicate that the use of organic compost can be an efficient way to increase grass yields in a sustainable way.

Keywords: compost application, dry matter yield, native grassland, sward composition

Procedia PDF Downloads 245
2497 Kinetic Evaluation of Sterically Hindered Amines under Partial Oxy-Combustion Conditions

Authors: Sara Camino, Fernando Vega, Mercedes Cano, Benito Navarrete, José A. Camino

Abstract:

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies should play a relevant role towards low-carbon systems in the European Union by 2030. Partial oxy-combustion emerges as a promising CCS approach to mitigate anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. Its advantages respect to other CCS technologies rely on the production of a higher CO₂ concentrated flue gas than these provided by conventional air-firing processes. The presence of more CO₂ in the flue gas increases the driving force in the separation process and hence it might lead to further reductions of the energy requirements of the overall CO₂ capture process. A higher CO₂ concentrated flue gas should enhance the CO₂ capture by chemical absorption in solvent kinetic and CO₂ cyclic capacity. They have impact on the performance of the overall CO₂ absorption process by reducing the solvent flow-rate required for a specific CO₂ removal efficiency. Lower solvent flow-rates decreases the reboiler duty during the regeneration stage and also reduces the equipment size and pumping costs. Moreover, R&D activities in this field are focused on novel solvents and blends that provide lower CO₂ absorption enthalpies and therefore lower energy penalties associated to the solvent regeneration. In this respect, sterically hindered amines are considered potential solvents for CO₂ capture. They provide a low energy requirement during the regeneration process due to its molecular structure. However, its absorption kinetics are slow and they must be promoted by blending with faster solvents such as monoethanolamine (MEA) and piperazine (PZ). In this work, the kinetic behavior of two sterically hindered amines were studied under partial oxy-combustion conditions and compared with MEA. A lab-scale semi-batch reactor was used. The CO₂ composition of the synthetic flue gas varied from 15%v/v – conventional coal combustion – to 60%v/v – maximum CO₂ concentration allowable for an optimal partial oxy-combustion operation. Firstly, 2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol (AMP) showed a hybrid behavior with fast kinetics and a low enthalpy of CO₂ absorption. The second solvent was Isophrondiamine (IF), which has a steric hindrance in one of the amino groups. Its free amino group increases its cyclic capacity. In general, the presence of higher CO₂ concentration in the flue gas accelerated the CO₂ absorption phenomena, producing higher CO₂ absorption rates. In addition, the evolution of the CO2 loading also exhibited higher values in the experiments using higher CO₂ concentrated flue gas. The steric hindrance causes a hybrid behavior in this solvent, between both fast and slow kinetic solvents. The kinetics rates observed in all the experiments carried out using AMP were higher than MEA, but lower than the IF. The kinetic enhancement experienced by AMP at a high CO2 concentration is slightly over 60%, instead of 70% – 80% for IF. AMP also improved its CO₂ absorption capacity by 24.7%, from 15%v/v to 60%v/v, almost double the improvements achieved by MEA. In IF experiments, the CO₂ loading increased around 10% from 15%v/v to 60%v/v CO₂ and it changed from 1.10 to 1.34 mole CO₂ per mole solvent, more than 20% of increase. This hybrid kinetic behavior makes AMP and IF promising solvents for partial oxy–combustion applications.

Keywords: absorption, carbon capture, partial oxy-combustion, solvent

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
2496 Comparative Numerical Simulations of Reaction-Coupled Annular and Free-Bubbling Fluidized Beds Performance

Authors: Adefarati Oloruntoba, Yongmin Zhang, Hongliang Xiao

Abstract:

An annular fluidized bed (AFB) is gaining extensive application in the process industry due to its efficient gas-solids contacting. But a direct evaluation of its reaction performance is still lacking. In this paper, comparative 3D Euler–Lagrange multiphase-particle-in-cell (MP-PIC) computations are performed to assess the reaction performance of AFB relative to a bubbling fluidized bed (BFB) in an FCC regeneration process. By using the energy-minimization multi-scale (EMMS) drag model with a suitable heterogeneity index, the MP-PIC simulation predicts the typical fountain region in AFB and solids holdup of BFB, which is consistent with an experiment. Coke combustion rate, flue gas and temperature profile are utilized as the performance indicators, while related bed hydrodynamics are explored to account for the different performance under varying superficial gas velocities (0.5 m/s, 0.6 m/s, and 0.7 m/s). Simulation results indicate that the burning rates of coke and its species are relatively the same in both beds, albeit marginal increase in BFB. Similarly, the shape and evolution time of flue gas (CO, CO₂, H₂O and O₂) curves are indistinguishable but match the coke combustion rates. However, AFB has high proclivity to high temperature-gradient as higher gas and solids temperatures are predicted in the freeboard. Moreover, for both beds, the effect of superficial gas velocity is only conspicuous on the temperature but negligible on combustion efficiency and effluent gas emissions due to constant gas volumetric flow rate and bed loading criteria. Cross-flow of solids from the annulus to the spout region as well as the high primary gas in the AFB directly assume the underlying mechanisms for its unique gas-solids hydrodynamics (pressure, solids holdup, velocity, mass flux) and local spatial homogeneity, which in turn influence the reactor performance. Overall, the study portrays AFB as a cheap alternative reactor to BFB for catalyst regeneration.

Keywords: annular fluidized bed, bubbling fluidized bed, coke combustion, flue gas, fountaining, CFD, MP-PIC, hydrodynamics, FCC regeneration

Procedia PDF Downloads 157
2495 RPM-Synchronous Non-Circular Grinding: An Approach to Enhance Efficiency in Grinding of Non-Circular Workpieces

Authors: Matthias Steffan, Franz Haas

Abstract:

The production process grinding is one of the latest steps in a value-added manufacturing chain. Within this step, workpiece geometry and surface roughness are determined. Up to this process stage, considerable costs and energy have already been spent on components. According to the current state of the art, therefore, large safety reserves are calculated in order to guarantee a process capability. Especially for non-circular grinding, this fact leads to considerable losses of process efficiency. With present technology, various non-circular geometries on a workpiece must be grinded subsequently in an oscillating process where X- and Q-axis of the machine are coupled. With the approach of RPM-Synchronous Noncircular Grinding, such workpieces can be machined in an ordinary plung grinding process. Therefore, the workpieces and the grinding wheels revolutionary rate are in a fixed ratio. A non-circular grinding wheel is used to transfer its geometry onto the workpiece. The authors use a worldwide unique machine tool that was especially designed for this technology. Highest revolution rates on the workpiece spindle (up to 4500 rpm) are mandatory for the success of this grinding process. This grinding approach is performed in a two-step process. For roughing, a highly porous vitrified bonded grinding wheel with medium grain size is used. It ensures high specific material removal rates for efficiently producing the non-circular geometry on the workpiece. This process step is adapted by a force control algorithm, which uses acquired data from a three-component force sensor located in the dead centre of the tailstock. For finishing, a grinding wheel with a fine grain size is used. Roughing and finishing are performed consecutively among the same clamping of the workpiece with two locally separated grinding spindles. The approach of RPM-Synchronous Noncircular Grinding shows great efficiency enhancement in non-circular grinding. For the first time, three-dimensional non-circular shapes can be grinded that opens up various fields of application. Especially automotive industries show big interest in the emerging trend in finishing machining.

Keywords: efficiency enhancement, finishing machining, non-circular grinding, rpm-synchronous grinding

Procedia PDF Downloads 278
2494 Discontinuous Galerkin Method for Higher-Order Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: Helmi Temimi

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the super-convergence properties of the discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method applied to one-dimensional mth-order ordinary differential equations without introducing auxiliary variables. We found that nth−derivative of the DG solution exhibits an optimal O (hp+1−n) convergence rates in the L2-norm when p-degree piecewise polynomials with p≥1 are used. We further found that the odd-derivatives and the even derivatives are super convergent, respectively, at the upwind and downwind endpoints.

Keywords: discontinuous, galerkin, superconvergence, higherorder, error, estimates

Procedia PDF Downloads 474
2493 Role of Social Workers in Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change in Makonde Communal Lands, Zimbabwe

Authors: Louis Nyahunda, Frans Koketso Matlakala, Jabulani Calvin Makhubele

Abstract:

Climate change is among the most vital environmental aspects that the human community is endowed with. Climate as a factor of life is particularly strong to low income rural communities whose livelihoods heavily depend on rain-fed subsistence agriculture like Makonde communal lands. The purpose of social work within the context of climate change is to enhance community expertise and empower members for participation in the decision-making process through all stages of risk assessment, rescue, planning and intervention for recovery and preparedness. This paper sought to explore the role of social workers in mitigating the effects of climate change in Makonde communal lands of Zimbabwe. The objectives of the study were to identify what roles if any are social workers playing in mitigating the effects of climate change and if not, what are the impediments in that sphere. A qualitative research approach was followed within the traditional framework of descriptive and exploratory designs. Simple random, purposive and snowballing sampling techniques were used to gather twenty-five participants in the study. The Thematic Content Analysis was followed to analyse data inductively. The study found that Social Workers are not directly involved in climate change interventions in the Makonde area owing it to lack of training on climate change issues. The study recommends that climate change falls within the purview of the social work practice therefore social workers must take the lead in supporting families and communities affected by climate change following the values, knowledge base, skills and principles of the profession.

Keywords: role, social workers, mitigation, climate change, Makonde communal lands

Procedia PDF Downloads 174
2492 The Role of Phycoremediation in the Sustainable Management of Aquatic Pollution

Authors: Raymond Ezenweani, Jeffrey Ogbebor

Abstract:

The menace of aquatic pollution has become increasingly of great concern and the effects of this pollution as a result of anthropogenic activities cannot be over emphasized. Phycoremediation is the application of algal remediation technology in the removal of harmful products from the environment. Harmful products also known as pollutants are usually introduced into the environment through variety of processes such as industrial discharge, agricultural runoff, flooding, and acid rain. This work has to do with the capability of algae in the efficient removal of different pollutants, ranging from hydrocarbons, eutrophication, agricultural chemicals and wastes, heavy metals, foul smell from septic tanks or dumps through different processes such as bioconversion, biosorption, bioabsorption and biodecomposition. Algae are capable of bioconversion of environmentally persistent compounds to degradable compounds and also capable of putting harmful bacteria growth into check in waste water remediation. Numerous algal organisms such as Nannochloropsis spp, Chlorella spp, Tetraselmis spp, Shpaerocystics spp, cyanobacteria and different macroalgae have been tested by different researchers in laboratory scale and shown to have 100% efficiency in environmental remediation. Algae as a result of their photosynthetic capacity are also efficient in air cleansing and management of global warming by sequestering carbon iv oxide in air and converting it into organic carbon, thereby making food available for the other organisms in the higher trophic level of the aquatic food chain. Algae play major role in the sustenance of the aquatic ecosystem by their virtue of being photosynthetic. They are the primary producers and their role in environmental sustainability is remarkable.

Keywords: Algae , Pollutant, ., Phycoremediation, Aquatic, Sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 119
2491 Optimizing Usability Testing with Collaborative Method in an E-Commerce Ecosystem

Authors: Markandeya Kunchi

Abstract:

Usability testing (UT) is one of the vital steps in the User-centred design (UCD) process when designing a product. In an e-commerce ecosystem, UT becomes primary as new products, features, and services are launched very frequently. And, there are losses attached to the company if an unusable and inefficient product is put out to market and is rejected by customers. This paper tries to answer why UT is important in the product life-cycle of an E-commerce ecosystem. Secondary user research was conducted to find out work patterns, development methods, type of stakeholders, and technology constraints, etc. of a typical E-commerce company. Qualitative user interviews were conducted with product managers and designers to find out the structure, project planning, product management method and role of the design team in a mid-level company. The paper tries to address the usual apprehensions of the company to inculcate UT within the team. As well, it stresses upon factors like monetary resources, lack of usability expert, narrow timelines, and lack of understanding of higher management as some primary reasons. Outsourcing UT to vendors is also very prevalent with mid-level e-commerce companies, but it has its own severe repercussions like very little team involvement, huge cost, misinterpretation of the findings, elongated timelines, and lack of empathy towards the customer, etc. The shortfalls of the unavailability of a UT process in place within the team and conducting UT through vendors are bad user experiences for customers while interacting with the product, badly designed products which are neither useful and nor utilitarian. As a result, companies see dipping conversions rates in apps and websites, huge bounce rates and increased uninstall rates. Thus, there was a need for a more lean UT system in place which could solve all these issues for the company. This paper highlights on optimizing the UT process with a collaborative method. The degree of optimization and structure of collaborative method is the highlight of this paper. Collaborative method of UT is one in which the centralised design team of the company takes for conducting and analysing the UT. The UT is usually a formative kind where designers take findings into account and uses in the ideation process. The success of collaborative method of UT is due to its ability to sync with the product management method employed by the company or team. The collaborative methods focus on engaging various teams (design, marketing, product, administration, IT, etc.) each with its own defined roles and responsibility in conducting a smooth UT with users In-house. The paper finally highlights the positive results of collaborative UT method after conducting more than 100 In-lab interviews with users across the different lines of businesses. Some of which are the improvement of interaction between stakeholders and the design team, empathy towards users, improved design iteration, better sanity check of design solutions, optimization of time and money, effective and efficient design solution. The future scope of collaborative UT is to make this method leaner, by reducing the number of days to complete the entire project starting from planning between teams to publishing the UT report.

Keywords: collaborative method, e-commerce, product management method, usability testing

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2490 Assessing Carbon Stock and Sequestration of Reforestation Species on Old Mining Sites in Morocco Using the DNDC Model

Authors: Nabil Elkhatri, Mohamed Louay Metougui, Ngonidzashe Chirinda

Abstract:

Mining activities have left a legacy of degraded landscapes, prompting urgent efforts for ecological restoration. Reforestation holds promise as a potent tool to rehabilitate these old mining sites, with the potential to sequester carbon and contribute to climate change mitigation. This study focuses on evaluating the carbon stock and sequestration potential of reforestation species in the context of Morocco's mining areas, employing the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model. The research is grounded in recognizing the need to connect theoretical models with practical implementation, ensuring that reforestation efforts are informed by accurate and context-specific data. Field data collection encompasses growth patterns, biomass accumulation, and carbon sequestration rates, establishing an empirical foundation for the study's analyses. By integrating the collected data with the DNDC model, the study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of carbon dynamics within reforested ecosystems on old mining sites. The major findings reveal varying sequestration rates among different reforestation species, indicating the potential for species-specific optimization of reforestation strategies to enhance carbon capture. This research's significance lies in its potential to contribute to sustainable land management practices and climate change mitigation strategies. By quantifying the carbon stock and sequestration potential of reforestation species, the study serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, land managers, and practitioners involved in ecological restoration and carbon management. Ultimately, the study aligns with global objectives to rejuvenate degraded landscapes while addressing pressing climate challenges.

Keywords: carbon stock, carbon sequestration, DNDC model, ecological restoration, mining sites, Morocco, reforestation, sustainable land management.

Procedia PDF Downloads 73
2489 Banking Union: A New Step towards Completing the Economic and Monetary Union

Authors: Marijana Ivanov, Roman Šubić

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The single rulebook together with the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Single Resolution Mechanism - as two main pillars of the banking union, represent important steps towards completing the Economic and Monetary Union. It should provide a consistent application of common rules and administrative standards for supervision, recovery and resolution of banks – with the final aim that a former practice of the bail-out is replaced with the bail-in system through which bank failures will be resolved by their own funds, i.e. with minimal costs for taxpayers and real economy. It has to reduce the financial fragmentation recorded in the years of crisis as the result of divergent behaviors in risk premium, lending activities, and interest rates between the core and the periphery. In addition, it should strengthen the effectiveness of monetary transmission channels, in particular the credit channels and overflows of liquidity on the single interbank money market. However, contrary to all the positive expectations related to the future functioning of the banking union, low and unbalanced economic growth rates remain a challenge for the maintenance of financial stability in the euro area, and this problem cannot be resolved just by a single supervision. In many countries bank assets exceed their GDP by several times, and large banks are still a matter of concern because of their systemic importance for individual countries and the euro zone as a whole. The creation of the SSM and the SRM should increase transparency of the banking system in the euro area and restore confidence that have been disturbed during the depression. It would provide a new opportunity to strengthen economic and financial systems in the peripheral countries. On the other hand, there is a potential threat that future focus of the ECB, resolution mechanism and other relevant institutions will be extremely oriented to the large and significant banks (whereby one half of them operate in the core and most important euro area countries), while it is questionable to what extent the common resolution funds will be used for rescue of less important institutions.

Keywords: banking union, financial integration, single supervision mechanism (SSM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 467
2488 Numerical Simulation of Hydraulic Fracture Propagation in Marine-continental Transitional Tight Sandstone Reservoirs by Boundary Element Method: A Case Study of Shanxi Formation in China

Authors: Jiujie Cai, Fengxia LI, Haibo Wang

Abstract:

After years of research, offshore oil and gas development now are shifted to unconventional reservoirs, where multi-stage hydraulic fracturing technology has been widely used. However, the simulation of complex hydraulic fractures in tight reservoirs is faced with geological and engineering difficulties, such as large burial depths, sand-shale interbeds, and complex stress barriers. The objective of this work is to simulate the hydraulic fracture propagation in the tight sandstone matrix of the marine-continental transitional reservoirs, where the Shanxi Formation in Tianhuan syncline of the Dongsheng gas field was used as the research target. The characteristic parameters of the vertical rock samples with rich beddings were clarified through rock mechanics experiments. The influence of rock mechanical parameters, vertical stress difference of pay-zone and bedding layer, and fracturing parameters (such as injection rates, fracturing fluid viscosity, and number of perforation clusters within single stage) on fracture initiation and propagation were investigated. In this paper, a 3-D fracture propagation model was built to investigate the complex fracture propagation morphology by boundary element method, considering the strength of bonding surface between layers, vertical stress difference and fracturing parameters (such as injection rates, fluid volume and viscosity). The research results indicate that on the condition of vertical stress difference (3 MPa), the fracture height can break through and enter the upper interlayer when the thickness of the overlying bedding layer is 6-9 m, considering effect of the weak bonding surface between layers. The fracture propagates within the pay zone when overlying interlayer is greater than 13 m. Difference in fluid volume distribution between clusters could be more than 20% when the stress difference of each cluster in the segment exceeds 2MPa. Fracture cluster in high stress zones cannot initiate when the stress difference in the segment exceeds 5MPa. The simulation results of fracture height are much higher if the effect of weak bonding surface between layers is not involved. By increasing the injection rates, increasing fracturing fluid viscosity, and reducing the number of clusters within single stage can promote the fracture height propagation through layers. Optimizing the perforation position and reducing the number of perforations can promote the uniform expansion of fractures. Typical curves of fracture height estimation were established for the tight sandstone of the Lower Permian Shanxi Formation. The model results have good consistency with micro-seismic monitoring results of hydraulic fracturing in Well 1HF.

Keywords: fracture propagation, boundary element method, fracture height, offshore oil and gas, marine-continental transitional reservoirs, rock mechanics experiment

Procedia PDF Downloads 121