Search results for: long COVID-19

Authors: Akingeneye Liliane

Abstract:

The value chain concept in recent times is being used by businesses and organizations to develop and implement their businesses. Chili farming has been identified as a significant contributor to the economic growth of Bugesera district. However, numerous challenges have led to a decrease in production. The primary objective of this research was to assess the current Bugesera chili value chain, identify the bottlenecks in the value chain, and come up with interventions that can help increase the output of the Bugesera chili value chain, in a climate-smart way and enhance Long-term sustainability of the value chain. The research used a case study approach to fulfill its objectives, utilizing primary and secondary data sources. Qualitative and quantitative data were gathered through semi-structured interviews with 22 individual farmers, five exporters, and five supporters within the Bugesera district. A focus group discussion (FGD) with seven stakeholders was also conducted to validate the research findings. The study's results underscore the challenges faced by chili farmers and other actors in the chain, the perceptions of different stakeholders to contribute to chili production, and the importance of promoting strong collaboration among stakeholders in the chili value chain to establish a sustainable framework. Based on these findings, the study puts forward recommendations to address the identified challenges and improve the chili farming sector in Bugesera. The business canvas model, as a proposed recommendation, once implemented, is believed to represent the most effective approach to enhancing chili productivity in Bugesera and securing the long-term sustainability of an export-oriented chili value chain in the district.

Keywords: build, sustainability, chili value chain, export-oriented

Procedia PDF Downloads 43

Authors: J. Yan, B. Pieper, B. Bucsky, H. H. Sievers, B. Nasseri, S. A. Mohamed

Abstract:

In order to optimize the efficacy of medications, the regular follow-up with long-term continuous monitoring of heart rhythmic patterns has been facilitated since clinical introduction of cardiac implantable electronic monitoring devices (CIMD). Extensive analysis of rhythmic circadian properties is capable to disclose the distributions of arrhythmic events, which may support appropriate medication according rate-/rhythm-control strategy and minimize consequent afflictions. 348 patients (69 ± 0.5ys, male 61.8%) with predisposed atrial fibrillation (AF), undergoing primary ablating therapies combined to coronary or valve operations and secondary implantation of CIMDs, were involved and divided into 3 groups such as PAAF (paroxysmal AF) (n=99, male 68.7%), PEAF (persistent AF) (n=94, male 62.8%), and LSPEAF (long-standing persistent AF) (n=155, male 56.8%). All patients participated in three-year ambulant follow-up (3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, 30 and 36 months). Burdens of atrial fibrillation recurrence were assessed using cardiac monitor devices, whereby attacks frequencies and their circadian patterns were systemically analyzed. Anticoagulants and regular anti-arrhythmic medications were evaluated and the last were listed in terms of anti-rate and anti-rhythm regimens. Patients in the PEAF-group showed the least AF-burden after surgical ablating procedures compared to both of the other subtypes (p < 0.05). The AF-recurrences predominantly performed such attacks’ property as shorter than one hour, namely within 10 minutes (p < 0.05), regardless of AF-subtypes. Concerning circadian distribution of the recurrence attacks, frequent AF-attacks were mostly recorded in the morning in the PAAF-group (p < 0.05), while the patients with predisposed PEAF complained less attack-induced discomforts in the latter half of the night and the ones with LSPEAF only if they were not physically active after primary surgical ablations. Different AF-subtypes presented distinct therapeutic efficacies after appropriate surgical ablating procedures and recurrence properties in sense of circadian distribution. An optimization of medical regimen and drug dosages to maintain the therapeutic success needs more attention to detailed assessment of the long-term follow-up. Rate-control strategy plays a much more important role than rhythm-control in the ongoing follow-up examinations.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, CIMD, MAZE, rate-control, rhythm-control, rhythm patterns

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Ola Abdel-Tawab Hussein

Abstract:

Background: Boron is a naturally occurring agent and an essential trace element of human, animals and higher plants. It is released in the form of boric acid (BA) that is water soluble and biolologically available. Its largest uses are in glass, detergents, agriculture, leather tanning industries, cosmetics, photographic materials, soaps and cleaners. Human consume daily few milligrams in the water, fruits and vegetables. High doses of boron had been recorded to be developmental and reproductive toxin in animals(Only few studies on human had investigated the health effects associated with exposure to boron. Vitamin C is a major water soluble non-enzymatic antioxidant, acts to overcome the oxidative stress. Aim of the work: However , the liver is exposed to toxic substances that are absorbed, degraded or conjugated there were little information exists about the effects of boron that it would specifically have in the liver tissue of experimental rats. So the present work aimed to study the effects of long-term boron ingestion on histological structural of the liver of adult male albino rats and to evaluate the protective role of vitamin C against induced changes. Material and Methods: 30 adult male albino rats were divided into 3 equal groups; Group I: control, Group II: recieved drinking water containing 55x10-6 gm boron/liter for 90 days and Group III: recieved vitamin C (200mg/Kg.B.W) orally concomitant with boron for the same period. liver specimens were processed for light and electron microscopic(TEM) study. Results: Examination of the liver sections of group II revealed foci of severe dilatation and congestion of central and portal veins with mononuclear cellular infiltration and hepatocellular vacuolation. Increased collagen deposition specially around the portal areas. Marked electrolucent areas in the cytoplasm, heterochromatic nuclei and destroyed organelles of the hepatocytes. Apoptotic cells were observed and decreased lipid content of ito cells. In Group III the co administration of vitamin C improved most of the structural changes of the hepatocytes, Ito cells, increased binucleated cells and decreased collagen fibers deposition. Conclusion: Thus, the long term exposure to boron, induced histological changes on the structure of liver. The co administration of vitamin C improved most of these structural changes.

Keywords: boron, liver, vitamin C, rats

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Walid Abouzeid, Mohamed Shadad, Mostafa Farid, Magdy El Hawary

Abstract:

The most frequent treatable vascular abnormality of the spinal canal is spinal dural arteriovenous fistulae (SDAVFs), which cause progressive para- or quadriplegia mostly affecting elderly males. SDAVFs are present in the thoracolumbar region. The main goal of treatment must be to obliterate the shunting zone via superselective embolization with the usage of a liquid embolic agent. This study aims to evaluate endovascular technique as a safe and efficient approach for the treatment SDAVFs, especially with long-term follow-up clinical outcomes. Study Design: A retrospective clinical case study. From May 2010 to May 2017, 15 patients who had symptoms attributed to SDAVFs underwent the operation in the Departments of Neurosurgery in Suhag, Tanta, and Al-Azhar Universities and Interventional Radiology, Ain Shams University. All the patients had varying degrees of progressive spastic paraparesis with and without sphincteric disturbances. Endovascular embolization was used in all cases. Fourteen were males, with ages ranging from 45 to 74 years old. After the treatment, good outcome was found in five patients (33.3%), a moderate outcome was delineated in six patients (40 %), and four patients revealed a poor outcome (26.7%). Spinal AVF could be treated safely and effectively by the endovascular approach. Generally, there is no correlation between the disappearance of MRI abnormalities and significant clinical improvement. The preclinical state of the patient is directly proportional to the clinical outcome. Due to unexpected responses, embolization should be attempted even the patient is in a bad clinical condition.

Keywords: spine, arteriovenous, fistula, endovascular, embolization

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Ghulam Mustafa Halepota, Zaib Dahar

Abstract:

Background: Low acceptance of FP services, particularly in hard to reach areas where geographic, economic, or social barriers limit-service uptake. Moreover, limited resources appeared to be a reflection of dismal contraceptive use in Pakistan. People’s Primary Health Care Initiative (PPHI) is a Public Private Partnership Program of Government of Sindh which aims to improve maternal child health through accessible family planning services in far flung areas. In 2015 PPHI launched special family planning camps to have achieved a rapid improvement in CPR. On quarterly basis, these camps focus on Long Acting Reversible Contraceptives (LARC). These camps are arranged at 250 BHU Plus (24/7 MCHCs). The Organization manages 1140 primary health care facilities all over Sindh province and focuses on maternal, newborn and child health which includes antenatal care, labor/delivery, postnatal care, family planning, immunization, nutrition, BEmONC, CEmONC, diagnostic laboratories, ambulance services. Under the FPRH program, the organization launched special family planning camps in far flung areas to achieve a rapid improvement in CPR-committed to FP 2020 goal. Objective: To assess the performance of special FP camps for the improvement of long acting reversible contraceptive in hard to reach areas. Methodology: Outreach camps are organized on quarterly basis in 250 BHUs and maternal and child health centers (available-24/7). Using observational study design, the study reports 2 years data of special FP camps conducted in 23 various districts of Sindh during April 2015-April 2017. These special camps served a range of modern contraceptive methods including IUCDs, implants, condoms, pills, and injections. Moreover, 125 male medical officers are trained across Sindh in LARC and 554 female have been trained in implants and IUCD insertions. MSI Impact calculator was used to determine health and demographic impact of services. Results: This intervention has brought exceptional results, and the response has been overwhelming in time. Total 2048 special camps during 2015 till April 2017 have been carried out. 231796 MWRAs visited camps 91% opted modern FP, of which 45% opted Implants, 6% selected IUCDs from LARC (long term reversible contraceptive) from short term, 17% opted injectable 18% choose pills, and 12% used condoms. This intervention created a high contraceptive impact in rural Sindh an estimated 125048 FP users have been created, of this 111846 LARC users and 13498 are SARC users, through this intervention an estimated 55774 unintended pregnancies, 36299 live births, 9394, 80 maternal deaths, 926 and 6077 unsafe abortion have been averted. Moreover, the intervention created an economic impact and saved 2,409,563 direct health expenditure on each woman with reproductive age. Conclusion: Special FP Camps along with routine services is an effective and acceptable model for increase in provision of long-acting and permanent methods in hard to reach areas. This innovative approach by PHHI-Sindh has also been adopted in other provinces of Pakistan.

Keywords: inequalities, special camps, family planning services, hard to reach areas

Procedia PDF Downloads 185

Authors: Abdul Rauf, Xiaoxing Liu, Waqas Amin

Abstract:

Stock markets are fascinating more and more conductive to each other due to liberalization and globalization trends in recent years. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has dragged Pakistan stock exchange to the new heights and global investors are making investments to reap its benefits. So, in investors and government perspective, the study focuses co-integration of Pakistan stock exchange with world’s five big economies i-e US, China, England, Japan, and France. The time period of study is seven years i-e 2010 to 2016 and daily values of major indices of corresponding stock exchanges collected. All variables of that particular study are stationary at first difference confirmed by unit root test. The study Johansen system co integration test for analysis of data along with Granger causality test is performed for result purpose. Co integration test asserted that Pakistan stock exchange integrated with Shanghai stock exchange (SSE) and NIKKEI stock exchange in short run. Granger causality test also proclaimed these results. But NASDAQ, FTSE, DAX not co integrated and Granger cause at a short run but long run these markets are bonded with Pakistan stock exchange (KSE). VECM also confirmed this liaison in short and long run. Investors, therefore, need to be updated regarding co-integration of world’s stock exchanges to ensure well diversified and risk adjusted high returns. Equally, governments also need updated status so that they could reduce co-integration through multiple steps and hence drag investors for diversified investment.

Keywords: CPEC, DAX, FTSE, liberalization, NASDAQ, NIKKEI, SSE, stock markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 302

Authors: Prakash Chittoor

Abstract:

In the recent past, it is realised especially in third sector that employing social innovation is crucial for achieving viable and long lasting social transformation. In this context, education is one among many sectors that have opened up itself for such move where employing social innovation emerges as key for reaching out to the excluded sections who are often failed to get support from either policy or market interventions. In fact, education is being as a crucial factor for social development is well understood at both academic and policy level. In order to move forward to achieve better results, interventions from multiple sectors may be required as its reach cultivates capabilities and skill of the deprived in order to ensure both market and social participation in the long run. Despite state’s intervention, it is found that still millions of children are out of school due to lack of political will, lapses in policy implementation and neoliberal intervention of marketization. As a result, universalisation of elementary education became as an elusive goal to poor and marginalised sections where state obtain constant pressure by corporate sector to withdraw from education sector that led convince in providing quality education. At this juncture, the role of third sector organizations plays is quite remarkable. Especially, it has evolved as a key player in education sector to reach out to the poor and marginalised in the far-flung areas. These organisations work in resources constrain environment, yet, in order to achieve larger social impact they adopt various social innovations from time to time to reach out to the unreached. Their attempts not only limited to just approaching the unreached children but to retain them for long-time in the schooling system in order to ripe the results for their families and communities. There is a need to highlight various innovative ways adopted and practiced by the third sector organisations in India to achieve the elusive goal of universal access of primary education with quality. With this background, the paper primarily attempts to present an in-depth understanding about innovative practices employed by third sectors organisations like Isha Vidya through government schools adoption programme in India where it engages itself with government and build capabilities among the government teachers to promote state run schooling with quality and better infrastructure. Further, this paper assess whether such innovative attempts succeeded in to achieving universal quality education in the areas where it operates and draws implications for State policy.

Keywords: school education, third sector organisations, social innovation, market domination

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Ş. Çiftcioğlu, E. Efe

Abstract:

In recent years, cancer has been at the top of diseases that cause death in children. Adequate and balanced nutrition plays an important role in the treatment of cancer. Cancer and cancer treatment is affecting food intake, absorption and metabolism, causing nutritional disorders. Appropriate nutrition is very important for the cancerous child to feel well before, during and after the treatment. There are various difficulties in feeding children with cancer. These are the cancer-related factors. Other factors are environmental and behavioral. As health professionals who spend more time with children in the hospital, nurses should be able to support the children on nutrition and help them to have balanced nutrition. This study aimed to evaluate the importance of nursing approaches in the nutrition of children with cancer. This article is planned as a review article by searching the literature on this field. Anorexia may develop due to psychogenic causes or chemotherapeutic agents or accompanying infections and nutrient uptake may be reduced.  In addition, stomatitis, mucositis, taste and odor changes in the mouth, the feeling of nausea, vomiting and diarrhea can also reduce oral intake and result in significant losses in the energy deficit. In assessing the nutritional status of children with cancer, determining weight loss and good nutrition is essential anamnesis of a child.  Some anthropometric measurements and biochemical tests should be used to evaluate the nutrition of the child. The nutritional status of pediatric cancer patients has been studied for a long time and malnutrition, in particular under nutrition, in this population has long been recognized. Yet, its management remains variable with many malnourished children going unrecognized and consequently untreated. Nutritional support is important to pediatric cancer patients and should be integrated into the overall treatment of these children.

Keywords: cancer treatment, children, complication, nutrition, nursing approaches

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: Priscila Vitorino, Jeeziane Rezende, Edison Pereira, Adrielly Silva, Weimar Barroso

Abstract:

Body composition insight during physical activity is relevant to follow up sports income since it can be important and actuate in velocity, resistance, potency, and has an effect on force and agility. The purpose of this study was to identify anthropometric profile, evaluate and correlate body mass index and bioimpedance behavior during the days of Caminhada Ecológica de Goiás - Brasil. A longitudinal study was performed with 25 male participants, with an average age of 45.6±9.1 years. All patients were actives. Body composition was evaluated by body mass index (BMI) measurement and bioimpedance procedures. Both were collected 20 days before walking beginning (A0) and in the four days along the same (A1, A2, A3 e A4). Data were collected in the end of each walking day at athletes accommodations. Final distance during walking route was 308 km in five days, with an average of 62km/day and 7,6 km/hour, and an average temperature of 30°C. Data are represented with mean and standard deviation. ANOVA (Bonferroni pos test) was used to compare frequent measurements between the days. Pearson's correlation test was used to correlate BMI with lean mass, fat mass, and water. BMI decreased from A0 to A1, A2 and A3 (p < 0,01) and increased on A4 (p < 0,01). No changes were observed concerning fat percentage (p=0,60), lean mass (p=0,10) and body water composition (p=0,09). A positive and moderate correlation between BMI and fat percentage was observed; an inverse and moderate correlation between BMI, lean mass and body water composition occurred. Total body mass increased during high intensity and long term walking distance. However, the values of body fat, lean mass and water were maintained.

Keywords: aerobic exercise, body composition, metabolism, sports

Procedia PDF Downloads 310

Authors: Rajish Shil, Mohammad Ali Houri, Mohammad Milad Ismail, Fatimah Al Kaabi

Abstract:

The clinical presentation of Primary hyperparathyroidism can vary from simple asymptomatic hypercalcemia to severe life-threatening hypercalcemic crisis with multi-organ dysfunction, which can be due to parathyroid adenoma or sometimes with malignant cancer. This cascade of clinical presentation can lead to a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge for treating the disease. We are presenting a case of severe hypercalcemic crisis due to parathyroid adenoma with an emphasis on early management, diagnosis, and interventions to prevent any lifelong complications and any permanent organ dysfunction. A 30 years old female with a history of primary Infertility, admitted to Al Ain Hospital critical care unit with Acute Severe Necrotizing Pancreatitis. She initially had a 1-month history of abdominal pain on and off, for which she was treated conservatively with no much improvement, and later on, she developed life-threatening severe pancreatitis, which required her to be admitted to the critical care unit. She was transferred from a private healthcare facility, where she was found to have a very high level of calcium up to 15mmol/L. She received systemic Zoledronic Acid, which lowered her calcium level transiently and later was increased again. She went on to develop multiple end-organ damages along with multiple electrolytes disturbances. She was found to have high levels of Parathyroid hormone, which was correlated with a parathyroid mass on the neck via radiological imaging. After a long course of medical treatment to lower the calcium to a near-normal level, parathyroidectomy was done, which showed parathyroid adenoma on histology. She developed hungry bone syndrome after the surgery and pancreatic pseudocyst after resolving of pancreatitis. She required aggressive treatment with Intravenous calcium for her hypocalcemia as she received zoledronic acid at the beginning of the disease. Later on, she was discharged on long term calcium and other electrolytes supplements. In patients presenting with hypercalcemia, it is prudent to investigate and start treatment early to prevent complications and end-organ damage from hypercalcemia and also to treat the primary cause of the hypercalcemia, with conscious follow up to prevent hypocalcemic complications after treatment. It is important to follow up patients with parathyroid adenomas for a long period in order to detect any recurrence of the tumor or to make sure if the primary tumor is either benign or malignant.

Keywords: hypercalcemia, pancreatitis, hypocalcemia, hyperparathyroidism

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Jun Young Chong, Seung Whan Kim

Abstract:

Introduction: The use of personal protective equipment for respiratory infection control in cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is a physical burden to healthcare providers. It matters how long CPR quality according to recommended guidelines can be maintained under these circumstances. It was investigated whether chest compression time was appropriate for a 2-minute shift and how long it was maintained in accordance with the guidelines under such conditions. Methods: This prospective crossover simulation study was performed at a single center from September 2020 to October 2020. Five indicators of CPR quality were measured during the first and second sessions of the study period. All participants wore a Level D powered air-purifying respirator (PAPR), and the experiment was conducted using a Resusci Anne manikin, which can measure the quality of chest compressions. Each participant conducted two sessions. In session one, 2-minutes of chest compressions followed by a 2-minute rest was repeated twice; in session two, 1-minute of chest compressions followed by a 1-minute rest was repeated four times. Results: All 34 participants completed the study. The deep and sufficient compression rate was 65.9 ± 13.1 mm in the 1-minute shift group and 61.5 ± 30.5 mm in the 2-minute shift group. The mean depth was 52.8 ±4.3 mm in the 1-minute shift group and 51.0 ± 6.1 mm in the 2-minute shift group. In these two values, there was a statistically significant difference between the two sessions. There was no statistically significant difference in the other CPR quality values. Conclusions: It was suggested that the different standard of current 2-minute to 1-minute cycles due to a significant reduction in the quality of chest compression in cases of CPR with PAPR.

Keywords: cardiopulmonary resuscitation, chest compression, personal protective equipment, powered air-purifying respirator

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Katie-Beth Webster

Abstract:

Mucormycosis is a rare opportunistic fungal infection that, if left untreated, can cause large scale tissue necrosis and death. There are a number of cases of this in the literature, most commonly in the head and neck region arising from sinuses. It is also usually found in immunocompromised patient subgroups. This study reviewed a number of cases of mucormycosis in previously fit and healthy young trauma patients to assess predisposing factors for infection and adequacy of current treatment paradigms. These trauma patients likely contracted the fungal infection from the soil at the site of the incident. Despite early washout and debridement of the wounds at the scene of the injury and on arrival in hospital, both these patients contracted mucormycosis. It was suspected that inadequate early debridement of soil contaminated limbs was one of the major factors that can lead to catastrophic tissue necrosis. In both cases, this resulted in the patients having a higher level of amputation than would have initially been required based on the level of their injury. This was secondary to cutaneous and soft tissue necrosis secondary to the fungal infiltration leading to osteomyelitis and systemic sepsis. In the literature, it appears diagnosis is often protracted in this condition secondary to inadequate early treatment and long processing times for fungal cultures. If fungal cultures were sent at the time of first assessment and adequate debridements are performed aggressively early, it could lead to these critically unwell trauma patients receiving appropriate antifungal and surgical treatment earlier in their episode of care. This is likely to improve long term outcomes for these patients.

Keywords: mucormycosis, plastic surgery, osteomyelitis, trauma

Procedia PDF Downloads 208

Authors: Stacie Nelson Colling, Adele Cummings

Abstract:

The United States Supreme Court recently announced that it is unconstitutional to sentence a child to life without parole for non-homicide offenses, and that each child so situated must be afforded a meaningful opportunity for release from prison in his lifetime. The Court also declared that it is unconstitutional to impose a mandatory sentence of life without parole on a child for homicide offenses. Across the United States, attorneys and advocates continue to litigate issues surrounding the implementation of these legal principles. Some states have held that any sentence to a finite term of years, no matter how long, is not the same as ‘life’ and therefore does not violate the constitution. Other states have held that a sentence to a term of years that is less than the expected life of that particular child is not unconstitutional. In Colorado, the courts have routinely looked to life expectancy estimates from governmental organizations to determine how long a particular child is expected to live. They then compare that the date that the child is expected to be eligible for parole, and if the child is expected to still be living when he is eligible for parole, the sentence is deemed constitutional. This paper argues that it is inappropriate, reckless, unconstitutional and not scientifically sound to use such estimates in determining whether a child will have a meaningful opportunity for release from prison and life outside of prison before he dies. This paper argues that the opportunity for release must mean more than a probability that a child will be released before his death, and that it must include an opportunity for a meaningful life outside of prison (not just the opportunity to be released and then die on the outside). The paper further argues that life expectancy estimates cannot guide a court or a legislature in determining whether a sentence is or is not constitutional.

Keywords: life without parole, life expectancy, juvenile sentencing, meaningful opportunity for release from prison

Procedia PDF Downloads 394

Authors: Srinivas Peri, Siva Abhishek Sirivella, Tejaswini Kallakuri, Uzair Ahmad

Abstract:

Smart cities and intelligent transportation systems rely heavily on effective traffic management and infrastructure planning. This research tackles the data scarcity challenge by generating realistically synthetic traffic data from the PeMS-Bay dataset, enhancing predictive modeling accuracy and reliability. Advanced techniques like TimeGAN and GaussianCopula are utilized to create synthetic data that mimics the statistical and structural characteristics of real-world traffic. The future integration of Spatial-Temporal Generative Adversarial Networks (ST-GAN) is anticipated to capture both spatial and temporal correlations, further improving data quality and realism. Each synthetic data generation model's performance is evaluated against real-world data to identify the most effective models for accurately replicating traffic patterns. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are employed to model and predict complex temporal dependencies within traffic patterns. This holistic approach aims to identify areas with low vehicle counts, reveal underlying traffic issues, and guide targeted infrastructure interventions. By combining GAN-based synthetic data generation with LSTM-based traffic modeling, this study facilitates data-driven decision-making that improves urban mobility, safety, and the overall efficiency of city planning initiatives.

Keywords: GAN, long short-term memory (LSTM), synthetic data generation, traffic management

Procedia PDF Downloads 14

Authors: Peter Boyes, Sarah Sharples, Paul Tennent, Gary Priestnall, Jeremy Morley

Abstract:

Significant long-term investment projects can involve complex decisions. These are often described as capital projects, and the factors that contribute to their complexity include budgets, motivating reasons for investment, stakeholder involvement, interdependent projects, and the delivery phases required. The complexity of these projects often requires management groups to be established involving stakeholder representatives; these teams are inherently multidisciplinary. This study uses two university campus capital projects as case studies for this type of management group. Due to the interaction of projects with wider campus infrastructure and users, decisions are made at varying spatial granularity throughout the project lifespan. This spatial-related context brings complexity to the group decisions. Sensemaking is the process used to achieve group situational awareness of a complex situation, enabling the team to arrive at a consensus and make a decision. The purpose of this study is to understand the role of people and data in the complex spatial related long-term decision and sensemaking processes. The paper aims to identify and present issues experienced in practical settings of these types of decision. A series of exploratory semi-structured interviews with members of the two projects elicit an understanding of their operation. From two stages of thematic analysis, inductive and deductive, emergent themes are identified around the group structure, the data usage, and the decision making within these groups. When data were made available to the group, there were commonly issues with the perception of veracity and validity of the data presented; this impacted the ability of group to reach consensus and, therefore, for decisions to be made. Similarly, there were different responses to forecasted or modelled data, shaped by the experience and occupation of the individuals within the multidisciplinary management group. This paper provides an understanding of further support required for team sensemaking and decision making in complex capital projects. The paper also discusses the barriers found to effective decision making in this setting and suggests opportunities to develop decision support systems in this team strategic decision-making process. Recommendations are made for further research into the sensemaking and decision-making process of this complex spatial-related setting.

Keywords: decision making, decisions under uncertainty, real decisions, sensemaking, spatial, team decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Francesco Scarpati

Abstract:

Because of their long history, ranging from ancient times to the present day, European cities feature many historical layers, whose single identities are represented by traces surviving in the urban design. However, urban transformations, in particular, the ones that have been produced by the property speculation phenomena of the 20th century, often compromised the readability of these traces, resulting in a loss of the historical identities of the single layers. The purpose of this research is, therefore, a reflection on the theme of the reenactment of the historical memory in the stratified European contexts and on how contemporary architecture can help to reveal past signs of the cities. The research work starts from an analysis of a series of emblematic examples that have already provided an original solution to the described problem, going from the architectural detail scale to the urban and landscape scale. The results of these analyses are then applied to the case study of the city of Naples, as an emblematic example of a stratified city, with an ancient Greek origin; a city where it is possible to read most of the traces of its transformations. Particular consideration is given to the trace of the medieval walls of the city, which a long time ago clearly divided the city itself from the outer fields, and that is no longer readable at the current time. Finally, solutions and methods of intervention are proposed to ensure that the trace of the walls, read as a boundary, can be revealed through the contemporary project.

Keywords: contemporary project, historic memory, historic urban contexts, medieval walls, naples, stratified cities, urban traces

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Abeer Rababa'h, Ragad Bsoul, Mohammad Alkhatatbeh, Karem Alzoubi

Abstract:

Introduction: Tobacco use is one of the main risk factors to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and atherosclerosis in particular. WPS contains several toxic materials such as: nicotine, carcinogens, tar, carbon monoxide and heavy metals. Thus, WPS is considered to be as one of the toxic environmental factors that should be investigated intensively. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the effect of WPS on several cardiovascular biological markers that may cause atherosclerosis in mice. The study also conducted to study the temporal effects of WPS on the atherosclerotic biomarkers upon short (2 weeks) and long-term (8 weeks) exposures. Methods: mice were exposed to WPS and heart homogenates were analyzed to elucidate the effects of WPS on matrix metalloproteinase (MMPs), endothelin-1 (ET-1) and, myeloperoxidase (MPO). Following protein estimation, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays were done to measure the levels of MMPs (isoforms 1, 3, and 9), MPO, and ET-1 protein expressions. Results: our data showed that acute exposure to WPS significantly enhances the levels of MMP-3, MMP- 9, and MPO expressions (p < 0.05) compared to their corresponding control. However, the body was capable to normalize the level of expressions for such parameters following continuous exposure for 8 weeks (p > 0.05). Additionally, we showed that the level of ET-1 expression was significantly higher upon chronic exposure to WPS compared to both control and acute exposure groups (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Waterpipe exposure has a significant negative effect on atherosclerosis and the enhancement of the atherosclerotic biomarkers expression (MMP-3 and 9, MPO, and ET-1) might represent an early scavenger of compensatory efforts to maintain cardiac function after WP exposure.

Keywords: atherosclerotic biomarkers, cardiovascular disease, matrix metalloproteinase, waterpipe

Procedia PDF Downloads 352

Authors: Mehdi Tajdari, Farzad Mokhtarnejad, Fatemeh Moradi, Mehdi Najafizadeh

Abstract:

Nowadays, energy absorbing devices have been widely used in all vehicles and moving parts such as railway couches, aircraft, ships and lifts. The aim is to protect these structures from serious damages while subjected to impact loads, or to minimize human injuries while collision is occurred in transportation systems. These energy-absorbing devices can dissipate kinetic energy in a wide variety of ways like friction, facture, plastic bending, crushing, cyclic plastic deformation and metal cutting. On the other hand, various structures may be used as collapsible energy absorbers. Metallic cylindrical tubes have attracted much more attention due to their high stiffness and strength combined with the low weight and ease of manufacturing process. As a matter of fact, favorable crash worthiness characteristics for energy dissipation purposes can be achieved from axial collapse of tubes while they crush progressively in symmetric modes. However, experimental and theoretical results have shown that depending on various parameters such as tube geometry, material properties of tube, boundary and loading conditions, circular tubes buckle in different modes of deformation, namely, diamond and Euler collapsing modes. It is shown that when the tube length is greater than the critical length, the tube deforms in overall Euler buckling mode, which is an inefficient mode of energy absorption and needs to be avoided in crash worthiness applications. This study develops a new method with the aim of improving energy absorption characteristics of long steel circular tubes. Inserting a helical spring into the tubes is proved experimentally to be an efficient solution. In fact when a long tube is subjected to axial compression load, the spring prevents of undesirable Euler or diamond collapsing modes. This is because the spring reinforces the internal wall of tubes and it causes symmetric deformation in tubes. In this research three specimens were prepared and three tests were performed. The dimensions of tubes were selected so that in axial compression load buckling is occurred. In the second and third tests a spring was inserted into tubes and they were subjected to axial compression load in quasi-static and impact loading, respectively. The results showed that in the second and third tests buckling were not happened and the tubes deformed in symmetric modes which are desirable in energy absorption.

Keywords: energy absorption, circular tubes, collapsing deformation, crashworthiness

Procedia PDF Downloads 340

Authors: S. Vadivukkarasi, K. Karthi, M. Karthick, C. Dinesh, S. Santhosh, A. Yogaraj

Abstract:

The appointment system was designed to minimize patient’s idle time overlooking patients waiting time in hospitals. This is no longer valid in today’s consumer oriented society. Long waiting times for treatment in the outpatient department followed by short consultations has long been a complaint. Nowadays, customers use waiting time as a decisive factor in choosing a service provider. Queuing theory constitutes a very powerful tool because queuing models require relatively little data and are simple and fast to use. Because of this simplicity and speed, modelers can be used to quickly evaluate and compare various alternatives for providing service. The application of queuing models in the analysis of health care systems is increasingly accepted by health care decision makers. Timely access to care is a key component of high-quality health care. However, patient delays are prevalent throughout health care systems, resulting in dissatisfaction and adverse clinical consequences for patients as well as potentially higher costs and wasted capacity for providers. Arguably, the most critical delays for health care are the ones associated with health care emergencies. The allocation of resources can be divided into three general areas: bed management, staff management, and room facility management. Effective and efficient patient flow is indicated by high patient throughput, low patient waiting times, a short length of stay at the hospital and overtime, while simultaneously maintaining adequate staff utilization rates and low patient’s idle times.

Keywords: appointment system, patient scheduling, bed management, queueing calculation, system analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Yisong Cong, Mingming Guo, Xiaozan Wang, Yizhi Zhang, Qingqing Yuan

Abstract:

This study is to test the correlation between the Physical Fitness (PF) of middle school students and their performance and sports grade of table tennis. Methods: 398 middle school students from Shanghai Tongji No.2 Middle School participated in the study, including 232 boys and 166 girls. Each participant participated in the Chinese Students’ Physical Fitness Test (CSPFT), including BMI, 50-meter running, vital capacity, sitting body flexion, standing long jump, 800-meter running, 1000-meter running, pull-ups, and sit-ups. Test scores were converted to a percentage score according to the CSPFT guidelines. In addition, each student participated in the Nation Junior Table Tennis grade test, and completed the table tennis sports grade assessment of 1-9. Results: There is a significant positive correlation between the scores of multiple PF tests and the total scores of table tennis, such as BMI (r = 0.15, p < 0.01), standing long jump (r = 0.15, p < 0.05), 800-meter run (r = 0.02, p <0.01); The scores of multiple PF are positively correlated with table tennis grade, such as vital capacity (r = 0.1, p < 0.01) and 50-meter running (r = 0.18, p < 0.05). At the same time, the sit-ups performance showed a significant negative correlation with the table tennis performance (r = -0.08, p < 0.01); There is no significant correlation between the other PF indicators and the performance and grade of table tennis. Conclusions: This study shows that there is a corresponding relationship between some PF indicators of middle school students and their table tennis performance and table tennis grade，but the specific form and reason of the relationship need to be further explored.

Keywords: middle school students, physical fitness, table tennis grade, table tennis performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Shahzad A. Mughal, Ameer A. P. Ghaloo, Faisal Laghari, Mohsin A. Mirza

Abstract:

Job satisfaction and level of job stressors among employees of a university are considered as essential factors responsible for institutional success. Job satisfaction is usually believed as a single baseline variable for the evaluation of a university human resource area. The objectives of this study were to assess the level of job satisfaction and influence of job stressors among university teachers and their association with long term physical health of the employees in government sector universities in Pakistan. A cross-sectional study was conducted on university employees including faculty members and administrative staff of three government sector universities in Sindh province of Pakistan who have completed at least ten years of their job. The study period was six months. All the employees were randomly selected. The job satisfaction scale Questionnaire with yes and no options, together with questions regarding demographic factors, job stress or other working factors and physical health issues were administered in questionnaires. These questionnaires were handed out to 100 faculty members of both genders with permanent job and 50 non faculty staff of grade 17 and above with permanent employment status. Students’ T test and one way ANOVA was applied to categorical variables and Pearson’s correlation analysis was performed to evaluate the correlations between study variables. 121 successful responses were obtained (effective respondent rate 80.6%). The average score of overall job satisfaction was 65.6%. Statistical analysis revealed that the job satisfaction and work related stressors had negative impact on overall health status of the employees with resultant less efficacy and mental stress. The positive relation was perceived by employees for organizational support and high income with job satisfaction. Demographic features such as age and female gender were also linked to the level of job satisfaction and health related issues. The total variation among all responses regarding correlation between job satisfaction job stressors and health related issues was 55%. A study was conducted on University employees of government sector Universities in Pakistan, regarding association of job satisfaction and job stressors with long term physical health of the employees. Study revealed a moderate level of job satisfaction among the employees of all universities included in this study. Attitude and personal relations with heads of the departments and institution along with salary packages were considered as biggest job stressors related correlated directly with physical health. Demographic features and gender were associated factors for job satisfaction. Organizational support was the strongest factor for job satisfaction and results pointed out that by improving support level from University may improve the quality of job satisfaction and overall health of employees.

Keywords: job satisfaction, organizational support, physical health, university employees

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Moses Aron, Elias Mwakilama, Jimmy Namangale

Abstract:

Spending more time on long queues for a basic service remains a common challenge to most developing countries, including Malawi. For health sector in particular, Out-Patient Department (OPD) experiences long queues. This puts the lives of patients at risk. However, using queuing analysis to under the nature of the problems and efficiency of service systems, such problems can be abated. Based on a kind of service, literature proposes different possible queuing models. However, unlike using generalized assumed models proposed by literature, use of real time case study data can help in deeper understanding the particular problem model and how such a model can vary from one day to the other and also from each case to another. As such, this study uses data obtained from one urban HC for BP, Pediatric and General OPD cases to investigate an average queuing time for patients within the system. It seeks to highlight the proper queuing model by investigating the kind of distributions functions over patient’s arrival time, inter-arrival time, waiting time and service time. Comparable with the standard set values by WHO, the study found that patients at this HC spend more waiting times than service times. On model investigation, different days presented different models ranging from an assumed M/M/1, M/M/2 to M/Er/2. As such, through sensitivity analysis, in general, a commonly assumed M/M/1 model failed to fit the data but rather an M/Er/2 demonstrated to fit well. An M/Er/3 model seemed to be good in terms of measuring resource utilization, proposing a need to increase medical personnel at this HC. However, an M/Er/4 showed to cause more idleness of human resources.

Keywords: health care, out-patient department, queuing model, sensitivity analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 435

Authors: Maierhaba Mijiti

Abstract:

Objective：The aim is to understand the relationship between the expression level of the long-non-coding RNA LINC AC008063 and the clinicopathological parameters of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), and to clarify the biological function of LINC AC008063 in HNSCC cells. Moreover, it provides a potential biomarker for the diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis evaluation of HNSCC. Methods: The expression level of LINC AC008063 in the HNSCC was analyzed using transcriptome sequencing data from the TCGA (The cancer genome atlas) database. The expression levels of LINC AC008063 in human embryonic lung diploid cells 2BS, human immortalized keratinocytes HACAT, HNSCC cell lines CAL-27, Detroit562, AMC-HN-8, FD-LSC-1, FaDu and WSU-HN30 were determined by real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR). RNAi (RNA interference) was introduced for LINC AC008063 knockdown in HNSCC cell lines, the localization and abundance analysis of LINC AC008063 was determined by RT-qPCR, and the biological functions were examined by CCK-8, clone formation, flow cytometry, transwell invasion and migration assays, Seahorse assay. Results: LINC AC008063 was upregulated in HNSCC tissue (P<0.001), and verified b CCK-8, clone formation, flow cytometry, transwell invasion and migration assays, Seahorse assayy qPCR in HNSCC cell lines. The survival analysis revealed that the overall survival rate (OS) of patients with high LINC AC008063 expression group was significantly lower than that in the LINC AC008063 expression group, the median survival times for the two groups were 33.10 months and 61.27 months, respectively (P=0.002). The clinical correlation analysis revealed that its expression was positively correlated with the age of patients with HNSCC (P<0.001) and positively correlated with pathological state (T3+T4＞T1+T2, P=0.03). The RT-qPCR results showed that LINC AC008063 was mainly enriched in cytoplasm (P=0.01). Knockdown of LINC AC008063 inhibited proliferation, colony formation, migration and invasion; the glycolytic capacity was significantly decreased in HNSCC cell lines (P＜0.05). Conclusion: High level of LINC AC008063 was associated with the malignant progression of HNSCC as well as promoting the important biological functions of proliferation, colony formation, migration and invasion; in particular, the glycolytic capacity was decreased in HNSCC cells. Therefore, LINC AC008063 may serve as a potential biomarker for HNSCC and a distinct molecular target to inhibit glycolysis.

Keywords: head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, oncogene, long non-coding RNA, LINC AC008063, invasion and metastasis

Procedia PDF Downloads 10

Authors: Hilaire Tegnan

Abstract:

Land administration has always been a delicate issue in the history of nations, and Indonesia, a country where a significant number of the population lives a pastoral life is not exempt from this reality. This paper discusses land tenure issues in West Sumatra, an Indonesian province which is home to the Minangkabau people with their long existing village management system known as Nagari, established to settle disputes based on adat (custom) principles as well as to protect the rights of the community members. These rights include communal land (referred to as tanahulayat hereafter). Long before the Dutch occupation of Indonesian archipelago, the nagari government was vested with powers to regulate communal land in West Sumatra. However, this authority was constantly overlooked by the then Dutch colonial administration as well as the post-independence governments (both central and regional). To reinforce the Nagari government as the guardian of the customary law (hukumadat) and to specify its jurisdiction, the Regional Government of West Sumatra enacted two laws between 2000 and 2008: Law No. 9/2000 repealed by Law No. 2/2007 and Law No. 6/2008 on communal land tenure. Although these two laws provide legal grounds to address land issues across the region, land conflicts still prevail among West Sumatran populations due to unsynchronized and contradictory regulations. The protests against the army (Korem) in Nagari Kapalo Hilalang, against the oil palm company in Nagari Kinali, and against a cement factory in Nagari Lubuk Kilangan are cited in this paper as case references.

Keywords: local government, Nagari government, Tanah Ulayat, legal pluralism, land administration

Procedia PDF Downloads 508

Authors: Jianjun Wu, Fanhui Guo, Yixin Zhang

Abstract:

In this study, gasification-coke were produced by blending the middlings (MC), and coking coal (CC) and a large proportion of long flame coal (Shenfu coal, SC), the effects of blending ratio were investigated. Mineral evolution and crystalline order obtained by XRD methods were reproduced within reasonable accuracy. Structure characteristics of partially gasification-coke such as surface area and porosity were determined using the N₂ adsorption and mercury porosimetry. Experimental data of gasification-coke was dominated by the TGA results provided trend, reactivity differences between gasification-cokes are discussed in terms of structure characteristic, crystallinity, and alkali index (AI). The first-order reaction equation was suitable for the gasification reaction kinetics of CO₂ atmosphere which was represented by the volumetric reaction model with linear correlation coefficient above 0.985. The differences in the microporous structure of gasification-coke and catalysis caused by the minerals in parent coals were supposed to be the main factors which affect its reactivity. The addition of MC made the samples enriched with a large amount of ash causing a higher surface area and a lower crystalline order to gasification-coke which was beneficial to gasification reaction. The higher SiO₂ and Al₂O₃ contents, causing a decreasing AI value and increasing activation energy, which reduced the gasification reaction activity. It was found that the increasing amount of MC got a better performance on the coke gasification reactivity by blending > 30% SC with this coking process.

Keywords: low-rank coal, middlings, structure characteristic, mineral evolution, alkali index, gasification-coke, gasification kinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Hatem Diaf, Patrice Melinon, Antonio Pereira, Bernard Moine, Nicholas Blanchard, Florent Bourquard, Florence Garrelie, Christophe Donnet

Abstract:

Glassy carbon exhibits excellent biological compatibility with live tissues meaning it has high potential for applications in life science. Moreover, glassy carbon has interesting properties including 'high temperature resistance', hardness, low density, low electrical resistance, low friction, and low thermal resistance. The structure of glassy carbon has long been a subject of debate. It is now admitted that glassy carbon is 100% sp2. This term is a little bit confusing as long sp2 hybridization defined from quantum chemistry is related to both properties: threefold configuration and pi bonding (parallel pz orbitals). Using plasma laser deposition of carbon clusters combined with pulsed nano/femto laser annealing, we are able to synthesize thin films of glassy carbon of good quality (probed by G band/ D disorder band ratio in Raman spectroscopy) without thermal post annealing. A careful inspecting of Raman signal, plasmon losses and structure performed by HRTEM (High Resolution Transmission Electron Microscopy) reveals that both properties (threefold and pi orbitals) cannot coexist together. The structure of the films is compared to models including schwarzites based from negatively curved surfaces at the opposite of onions or fullerene-like structures with positively curved surfaces. This study shows that a huge collection of porous carbon named vitreous carbon with different structures can coexist.

Keywords: glassy carbon, cluster deposition, coating, electronic structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 319

Authors: Vijaykumar M. Baragi, Ramtilak Gattu, Gabriela Trifan, John L. Woodard, K. Meyers, Tim S. Halstead, Eric Hipple, Ewart Mark Haacke, Randall R. Benson

Abstract:

NFL players, by virtue of their exposure to repetitive head injury, are at least twice as likely to develop Alzheimer's disease (AD) and dementia as the general population. Early recognition and intervention prior to onset of clinical symptoms could potentially avert/delay the long-term consequences of these diseases. Since AD is thought to have a long preclinical incubation period, the aim of the current research was to determine whether former NFL players, referred to a depression center, showed evidence of incipient dementia in their structural imaging prior to diagnosis of dementia. Thus, to identify neuroimaging markers of AD, against which former NFL players would be compared, we conducted a comprehensive volumetric analysis using a cohort of early stage AD patients (ADNI) to produce a set of brain regions demonstrating sensitivity to early AD pathology (i.e., the “AD fingerprint”). A cohort of 46 former NFL players’ brain MRIs were then interrogated using the AD fingerprint. Brain scans were done using a T1-weighted MPRAGE sequence. The Free Surfer image analysis suite (version 6.0) was used to obtain the volumetric and cortical thickness data. A total of 55 brain regions demonstrated significant atrophy or ex vacuo dilatation bilaterally in AD patients vs. healthy controls. Of the 46 former NFL players, 19 (41%) demonstrated a greater than expected number of atrophied/dilated AD regions when compared with age-matched controls, presumably reflecting AD pathology.

Keywords: alzheimers, neuroimaging biomarkers, traumatic brain injury, free surfer, ADNI

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara, Eugine Iheanacho

Abstract:

The paper set out to assess the sustainability of debt in the Nigerian economy. Precisely, it sought to determine the level of debt sustainability and its impact on the growth of the economy; whether internationalization of capital market has positively influenced debt sustainability’s impact on economic growth; and to ascertain the direction of causality between external debt sustainability and the growth of GDP. In the light of these objectives, ratio analysis was employed for the determination of debt sustainability. Our findings revealed that the periods 1986 – 1994 and 1999 – 2004 were periods of severe unsustainable borrowing. The unit root test showed that the variables of the growth model were integrated of order one, I(1) and the cointegration test provided evidence for long run stability. Considering the dawn of internationalization of capital market, the researcher employed the structural break approach using Chow Breakpoint test on the vector error correction model (VECM). The result of VECM showed that debt sustainability, measured by debt to GDP ratio exerts negative and significant impact on the growth of the economy while debt burden measured by debt-export ratio and debt service export ratio are negative though insignificant on the growth of GDP. The Cho test result indicated that internationalization of capital market has no significant effect on the debt overhang impact on the growth of the Economy. The granger causality test indicates a feedback effect from economic growth to debt sustainability growth indicators. On the bases of these findings, the researchers made some necessary recommendations which if followed religiously will go a long way to ameliorating debt burdens and engendering economic growth.

Keywords: debt sustainability, internalization, capital market, cointegration, chow test

Procedia PDF Downloads 437

Authors: Giorgio Visentin, Alexei A. Buchachenko

Abstract:

Recent proposals to use Yb dimer as an optical clock and as a sensor for non-Newtonian gravity imply the knowledge of its interaction potential. Here, the ground-state Born-Oppenheimer Yb₂ potential energy curve is represented by a semi-analytical function, consisting of short- and long-range contributions. For the former, the systematic ab initio all-electron exact 2-component scalar-relativistic CCSD(T) calculations are carried out. Special care is taken to saturate diffuse basis set component with the atom- and bond-centered primitives and reach the complete basis set limit through n = D, T, Q sequence of the correlation-consistent polarized n-zeta basis sets. Similar approaches are used to the long-range dipole and quadrupole dispersion terms by implementing the CCSD(3) polarization propagator method for dynamic polarizabilities. Dispersion coefficients are then computed through Casimir-Polder integration. The semiclassical constraint on the number of the bound vibrational levels known for the ¹⁷⁴Yb isotope is used to scale the potential function. The scaling, based on the most accurate ab initio results, bounds the interaction energy of two Yb atoms within the narrow 734 ± 4 cm⁻¹ range, in reasonable agreement with the previous ab initio-based estimations. The resulting potentials can be used as the reference for more sophisticated models that go beyond the Born-Oppenheimer approximation and provide the means of their uncertainty estimations. The work is supported by Russian Science Foundation grant # 17-13-01466.

Keywords: ab initio coupled cluster methods, interaction potential, semi-analytical function, ytterbium dimer

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Adeola Adenikinju, Olusanya E. Olubusoye, Lateef O. Akinpelu, Dilinna L. Nwobi

Abstract:

Since the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (2007), the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has made public its fiscal budget and the subsequent implementation report. A critical review of these documents shows significant variations in the five macroeconomic variables which are inputs in each Presidential budget; oil Production target (mbpd), oil price ($), Foreign exchange rate(N/$), and Gross Domestic Product growth rate (%) and inflation rate (%). This results in underperformance of the Federal budget expected output in terms of non-oil and oil revenue aggregates. This paper evaluates first the existing variance between budgeted and actuals, then the relationship and causality between the determinants of Federal fiscal budget assumptions, and finally the determinants of FGN’s Gross Oil Revenue. The paper employed the use of descriptive statistics, the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and a Profit oil probabilistic model to achieve these objectives. This model permits for both the static and dynamic effect(s) of the independent variable(s) on the dependent variable, unlike a static model that accounts for static or fixed effect(s) only. It offers a technique for checking the existence of a long-run relationship between variables, unlike other tests of cointegration, such as the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests, which consider only non-stationary series that are integrated of the same order. Finally, even with small sample size, the ARDL model is known to generate a valid result, for it is the dependent variable and is the explanatory variable. The results showed that there is a long-run relationship between oil revenue as a proxy for budget performance and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a short-run relationship between oil revenue and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a long-run relationship between non-oil revenue and its determinants; inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and foreign exchange rate. The grangers’ causality test results show that there is a mono-directional causality between oil revenue and its determinants. The Federal budget assumptions only explain 68% of oil revenue and 62% of non-oil revenue. There is a mono-directional causality between non-oil revenue and its determinants. The Profit oil Model describes production sharing contracts, joint ventures, and modified carrying arrangements as the greatest contributors to FGN’s gross oil revenue. This provides empirical justification for the selected macroeconomic variables used in the Federal budget design and performance evaluation. The research recommends other variables, debt and money supply, be included in the Federal budget design to explain the Federal budget revenue performance further.

Keywords: ARDL, budget performance, oil price, oil quantity, oil revenue

Procedia PDF Downloads 172